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Detlef Waechter
The Alliance will start a rethink of its nuclear posture—but not jump to conclusions on
tactical nuclear weapons. This modest but realistic approach deserves support.
Summary
A core deliverable of the November NATO summit in Lisbon will be a new Strategic Concept to guide the
Alliance’s work over the coming decade. Although debate continues about how the new concept should ad-
dress NATO’s future nuclear policy, the broad outline appears set. It will likely reflect U.S. Secretary of State
Hillary Clinton’s April presentation to the meeting of foreign ministers in Tallinn, Estonia, where she pro-
posed that NATO retain its nuclear status with shared responsibilities, but reduce the role of nuclear weap-
ons, seek further arms control agreements with Russia, and pursue missile defense.
•• The Clinton principles represent a realistic approach. They effectively incorporate divergent interests
of NATO members, while also offering a constructive role for NATO to play in arms control.
•• NATO should endorse the Clinton principles at Lisbon and then work out the details of how to
explain the role of nuclear weapons in an internal Nuclear Posture Review. It will quickly become evi-
dent that the questions involving U.S. tactical nuclear weapons and solidarity between Alliance mem-
bers are not insurmountable problems for NATO.
•• The NPR could also lay the groundwork for talks with Russia on a next round of arms control nego-
tiations. Any dramatic changes in NATO’s nuclear posture (such as withdrawal or redeployment of
weapons) should be a result of, and not a precondition for, future talks with Moscow.
•• Isolated talks and negotiations on tactical nuclear weapons will not produce results. Instead, the Alli-
ance should adopt a multi-track approach that combines the issues of tactical nuclear weapons, stock-
piled U.S. strategic weapons, conventional arms control, and missile defense. The Alliance’s ultimate
goal should be a nuclear-weapon–free zone from the Atlantic to the Urals.
The November 19–20 NATO summit in Lisbon has the potential to become the
most pivotal gathering of NATO leaders since the 1999 Washington summit that
marked the Alliance’s fiftieth anniversary. NATO will address the Alliance’s re-
lations with Russia and the European Union, reforms in the Brussels secretariat
and of its military headquarters, new threats and challenges, and the so-called
“comprehensive approach” (that is, how to effectively bring together military and
civilian capabilities in theaters such as Afghanistan).
The summit will also attempt to reconcile the traditional defensive assurances of
Article V of the Washington Treaty with new out-of-area operations NATO has
undertaken in Kosovo and Afghanistan. Alliance members will need to clarify
that NATO can effectively carry out both territorial defense and out-of-area
operations with a single set of forces.
While NATO summit meetings are by themselves important gatherings, they NATO’s nuclear
are only meaningful to the extent that they produce decisions affecting Alliance
capabilities or changes in doctrine and policy. This is one reason why NATO policy epitomizes
Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen is determined to reach an Alliance
decision to adopt territorial missile defense as a future NATO mission and to the Alliance’s
update the Alliance’s Strategic Concept. In this context, the future of NATO’s will to deter and
nuclear policy has come to the fore as a pivotal issue—one that will absorb much
energy in the lead-up to the summit and probably dominate the event itself. defend.
So far, the debate over NATO’s nuclear policy has not come close to the ago-
nized public deliberation over the Alliance’s 1979 “dual-track” decision to station
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intermediate-range nuclear missiles in Western Europe if necessary. However,
some experts have warned that a new debate would be too divisive and should
not be included in discussions about a new Strategic Concept. Many observers
believe that such a debate, if not handled carefully, could open Pandora’s Box:
An Alliance that badly needs guidance and reassurance on its nuclear stance
could instead be spooked by an unsettling issue thought to be resolved.
Fretting by Alliance members reached its peak in spring 2010 before the infor-
mal meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Tallinn, Estonia. At that meeting,
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton successfully bridged the gap that had oc-
curred within the Alliance by proposing that:
Finally, the Albright group suggested that NATO adopt a declaratory policy
similar to the negative security guarantee included in the 2010 U.S. Nuclear
Posture Review: no use of weapons or threat of use against non–nuclear-weapon
states that are party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and in compliance
with their nuclear nonproliferation obligations.
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A course like the one described and provided by the United States and the
Albright group might be too conservative for those hoping for a more radical
overhaul of NATO nuclear policy. It might also be too ambitious for those fear-
ing the Alliance is treading down a portentous path of defeatism.
There will no doubt be open debate before and during Lisbon on how to draft
language for a new Strategic Concept, especially concerning NATO’s Missile
Defense mission and how it affects the Alliance’s nuclear weapons policy. But
there will not be any surprises. The elements for possible language are already
on the table.
On the other hand, one can argue that Russia is now a partner of NATO, with
whom the Alliance shares vital interests. Moreover, it can be asked whether
NATO’s nuclear weapons, with their very limited military utility, really under-
score its credibility as a defensive Alliance. But these counterarguments ignore
the fact that political perceptions are political realities. It takes time for societies
to adjust their perspectives and strategic cultures to new circumstances.
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Turkey’s new political class is only beginning to grapple with the intricacies
of nuclear policy and doctrine. While changes in NATO’s nuclear policy (like
redistribution or withdrawal of tactical nuclear weapons) would not automatically
lead Ankara to reconsider its nuclear policy, it could prompt Turkey to consider
alternative strategies for addressing its long-term security interests.
It is hardly surprising, then, that not one of the 36 signatories to the September
27 European Leadership Initiative (the “Group statement on NATO Nuclear
Policy”)—which called on NATO leaders to create conditions for global nuclear
disarmament—came from a Baltic country, Poland, or Turkey.
Lisbon must
There are, however, options for the Alliance to send a clear message from its
Lisbon meeting that NATO is committed to defending its members and to signal that
rethinking its nuclear mission in light of a changed strategic environment. This
rethink must be done jointly and cannot be rushed by artificial deadlines. Pro-
NATO is
cess is key and the steps forward must occur in the right order for the Alliance to committed to
succeed.
defending its
•• The Secretary General must give the NATO Nuclear Posture Review his
full attention and authority to help bridge diverging member-state inter-
ests. Otherwise, no solutions are likely to be reached.
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The Nuclear Planning Group has hosted NATO’s nuclear policy debates for
more than 40 years. But France is not a member of the group, making it unfea-
sible for NATO to decide its nuclear posture without all three of the Alliance’s
nuclear powers (the United States, Britain, and France) present.
Russia’s cooperation with NATO is pivotal for arms control progress on tactical
nuclear weapons. Even the German government—which some regard as par-
ticularly insistent on the need to reduce and eliminate tactical nuclear weapons
in Europe—never promoted unconditional or unilateral withdrawal. Instead, Russia’s
Germany always framed the issue within the larger context of an arms control
agreement with Russia and a final end to the Cold War legacy. The United States cooperation
and NATO dramatically reduced the number of tactical nuclear weapons from with NATO
more than 7,000 in 1990 to the present low number—a considerable unilateral
disarmament measure. is pivotal for
•• The remaining theater nuclear weapons-systems must be used to bring arms control
Russia to the negotiating table. This means that redeployment or elimina-
tion of weapons by NATO must come as the result of an agreement with progress on
Moscow, not as a precondition to it. As in the past, there must be a give tactical nuclear
and take between Russia and its negotiating partner.
weapons.
•• NATO’s Nuclear Posture Review could pave the way for discussions with
Russia on transparency, reductions, and redeployment, which ultimately
could lead to a fresh round of arms-control negotiations. President Med-
vedev has been invited to attend the Lisbon summit. This issue should
top the agenda of the NATO-Russia Council Meeting.
The NATO-Russia Council could serve as the lead body for the tactical weapons
track of this multi-track approach. Ideally it would lead to the withdrawal of all
remaining nuclear weapons from Europe. In addition, for the first time since its
founding in 2002, the Council would have a chance to prove that it really matters.
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This approach requires considerable will to compromise on the part of the
United States, which owns the tactical nuclear weapons in Europe as well as
the strategic weapons systems. But the result—a European continent free of
nuclear weapons, a NATO reconciled with Russia, and an Alliance free to tackle
emerging security threats—would certainly make the effort worthwhile.
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Detlef Waechter is a German diplomat and a visiting fellow at the
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He served on Chancellor Angela
Merkel’s foreign and security policy team in the Federal Chancellery from 2007
to 2010, and from 2005 to 2007 served in the German Permanent Representa-
tion at NATO in Brussels. The views expressed in this paper are his alone.