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1. Societal values
2. Political/legal
3. Economic/markets/labor
4. Infom a tion/ technological
5 . Physical/geography.
task or task cluster, (b) the importance of the KSAs, the difficulty
to learn the KSAs, and when the KSAs will be learned. Thus, the
task information and KSAs developed based on the present job
are rerated in the light of the changes the workshop participants
identify.
A comparison of present and future ratings allows an assessment
of the extent to which changes in the internal and external environ-
ment of an organization yield significant task and KSA changes for
the job of interest. The re-rating process also provides an opportunity
for workshop participants to add to the list of tasks and/or KSAs.
Thus, jobs may not only change in how important a task or a KSA
is but new tasks and/or new KSAs may emerge in the future. These
new tasks and KSAs need to be identified and discussions during the
re-rating process provide an opportunity for them to emerge.
It may be clear from the different rating options listed in this
section (e.g., rate task statements or task clusters) that the process
involved in generating information about the future and then using
this information to modify an existing job analysis has yet to be
finalized. Given the novelty of this futures approach some variations
have been tried to facilitate the generation of future issues and to
facilitate the re-rating and updating of tasks and KSAs.
For example, in one project SMEs were asked to fill out a job
analysis survey for the way the job presently exists and one for the
job of the future, prior to attending a workshop to discuss futures
issues. So, in this particular variation, the workshop participants were
“primed” to discuss futures issues, since they had already been re-
quired to independently make the futures ratings. At the actual
workshop, generating the futures issues proceeded very quickly. A
second workshop was held to further discuss possible changes in the
future and then the SMEs, led by one of us, produced consensus
time will be spent in the future. According to Table 111, the most
time will be spent on “feedback” (i.e., Gives feedback and counsels
staff) and little time will be spent on “customer” (i.e.7 Handles
customers) and “monitors” (i.e., Monitors results and updates
management).
A similar comparative analysis (between present and future) may
be conducted for the KSAs necessary to carry out these tasks. An
example of these data are shown in Table IV for the Knowledge
clusters that emerged from the standard job analysis.
The labels in Table IV for the Knowledge clusters represent seven
kinds of knowledge required for this supervisory job:
data for Difficulty to Learn the Knowledge shows that the present
(supervisors) and future (SMEs) estimates are highly correlated ( r =
.79) although the means are elevated for SMEs for five of seven
kinds of knowledge. Second, the data for When Learned also re-
vealed strong relationships between the present (supervisors) and the
future (SMEs), with r = .85. For these latter ratings, it is clear that
SMEs expect future Supervisors to come to the job already knowl-
edgeable in four domains: Product, Rules/Regs, CRT, and Competi-
tion.
SUMMARY
The data presented in Tables I11 and IV reveal two findings that
we have consistently observed: (1) incumbents' views of tasks and
KSAs for today's job are generally highly correlated with SME's
projections of the future, and (2) high correlation does not equal
agreement. This means that while the rank orders of means for tasks
and KSAs for incumbents (present) and SMEs (future) are similar,
the means themselves may differ. Sometimes the means differ in
their dispersion (e.g., greater variability in the future than present)
and sometimes the means have a ceiling or basement effect (e.g.,
a particular kind of knowledge is assumed to exist prior to job
entry).
These findings caution against using only correlations as a basis for
judging the similarity between present and future ratings. As in all
NOTES
This research effort was supported by an organization that shall remain nameless
at its request. We want to thank the people there, especially P.E.W., E.M.,
N.M.,and D.S. who helped us. Others have also been helpful, especially Joe
Schneider, Anne Moeller, and Dan Schechter. We received useful comments
on earlier versions of this article from Pete Dachler, Kevin Ford, Irv Gold-
stein, Mirian Graddick, Tim Hall, Paul Hanges, Gary Latham, and Vicki
Vandaveer.
REFERENCES