Extreme Value ype 1 ( Gumbel ) with maximum likeli

Submitted by : Hamse Hussein Adam ID: P

Department of Hydraulic and Water Resourc
Annual maximum flows in sugar Creek at Cr
Year Xi log(X) Rank(i) Fi=(i-0.35)/N XiFi XiFi2
1953 7860 3.895 17 0.427 3355.615 1432.589645
1954 2730 3.436 2 0.042 115.500 4.886538462
1955 6480 3.812 8 0.196 1271.077 249.3266272
1956 12800 4.107 29 0.735 9403.077 6907.64497
1957 26300 4.420 39 0.991 26063.974 25830.0669
1958 15100 4.179 33 0.837 12641.410 10583.12936
1959 14600 4.164 32 0.812 11848.462 9615.482249
1960 7300 3.863 14 0.350 2555.000 894.25
1961 8580 3.933 18 0.453 3883.000 1757.30641
1962 15100 4.179 33 0.837 12641.410 10583.12936
1963 15100 4.179 33 0.837 12641.410 10583.12936
1964 21800 4.338 38 0.965 21045.385 20316.89053
1965 6200 3.792 6 0.145 898.205 130.1245891
1966 2130 3.328 1 0.017 35.500 0.591666667
1967 11100 4.045 25 0.632 7015.769 4434.325937
1968 14300 4.155 31 0.786 11238.333 8832.17735
1969 11200 4.049 26 0.658 7366.154 4844.662722
1970 6670 3.824 9 0.222 1479.372 328.1170776
1971 5440 3.736 5 0.119 648.615 77.33491124
1972 9370 3.972 20 0.504 4721.038 2378.677071
1973 6900 3.839 11 0.273 1884.231 514.5399408
1974 9680 3.986 22 0.555 5373.641 2983.059698
1975 6810 3.833 10 0.247 1685.038 416.9390039
1976 7730 3.888 16 0.401 3101.910 1244.740911
1977 5290 3.723 4 0.094 495.090 46.33532216
1978 12200 4.086 27 0.683 8336.667 5696.722222
1979 9750 3.989 24 0.606 5912.500 3585.400641
1980 7390 3.869 15 0.376 2775.987 1042.774671
1981 13100 4.117 30 0.760 9959.359 7571.666502
1982 7190 3.857 13 0.324 2332.141 756.4508711
1983 8850 3.947 19 0.478 4232.115 2023.81928
1984 6290 3.799 7 0.171 1072.526 182.8793721
1985 18800 4.274 36 0.914 17185.128 15708.96976
1986 9740 3.989 23 0.581 5656.692 3285.23284
1987 2990 3.476 3 0.068 203.167 13.80491453
1988 6950 3.842 12 0.299 2076.090 620.1652696
1989 9390 3.973 21 0.529 4971.885 2632.549162
1990 12400 4.093 28 0.709 8791.282 6232.793557
1991 21200 4.326 37 0.940 19922.564 18722.10191
39 402810.000 154.315 256836.321 193064.789
10328.462 3.957 6585.547 4950.379
M100 M110 M120
βo β1 β2
N 39
mean(M1) 10328.462 mean(M1y) 3.957
sta(S) 5320.598 sta(Sy) 0.235
cv1 0.515 cv(M2y 0.059

L1 bo = 10328.462
L2 2b1-bo = 2842.632
L3 6b2- 6b1+bo= 517.457
L4 20b3-30b2+12b1-bo= 387.550
 maximum likelihood parameter estimator
ein Adam ID: PRAMIT/1833/11
nd Water Resources Engineering
ar Creek at Crawfordsville, Indiana.
XiFi3 1-Fi Xi(1-Fi) Xi(1-Fi)2 Xi(1-Fi)3
611.606 0.573 4504.385 2581.359 1479.317
0.207 0.958 2614.500 2503.887 2397.953
48.906 0.804 5208.923 4187.173 3365.843
5074.462 0.265 3396.923 901.491 239.242
25598.259 0.009 236.026 2.118 0.019
8859.979 0.163 2458.590 400.309 65.178
7803.334 0.188 2751.538 518.559 97.728
312.988 0.650 4745.000 3084.250 2004.763
795.294 0.547 4697.000 2571.306 1407.625
8859.979 0.163 2458.590 400.309 65.178
8859.979 0.163 2458.590 400.309 65.178
19613.614 0.035 754.615 26.121 0.904
18.851 0.855 5301.795 4533.714 3876.907
0.010 0.983 2094.500 2059.592 2025.265
2802.721 0.368 4084.231 1502.787 552.949
6941.186 0.214 3061.667 655.511 140.347
3186.297 0.342 3833.846 1312.355 449.229
72.775 0.778 5190.628 4039.373 3143.461
9.221 0.881 4791.385 4220.104 3716.938
1198.487 0.496 4648.962 2306.600 1144.429
140.509 0.727 5015.769 3646.078 2650.419
1655.981 0.445 4306.359 1915.778 852.275
103.166 0.753 5124.962 3856.862 2902.536
499.492 0.599 4628.090 2770.920 1659.000
4.337 0.906 4794.910 4346.156 3939.400
3892.760 0.317 3863.333 1223.389 387.406
2174.224 0.394 3837.500 1510.401 594.478
391.709 0.624 4614.013 2880.800 1798.654
5756.408 0.240 3140.641 752.949 180.515
245.362 0.676 4857.859 3282.169 2217.568
967.801 0.522 4617.885 2409.589 1257.311
31.183 0.829 5217.474 4327.828 3589.878
14359.610 0.086 1614.872 138.713 11.915
1907.962 0.419 4083.308 1711.848 717.659
0.938 0.932 2786.833 2597.472 2420.977
185.254 0.701 4873.910 3417.986 2396.972
 1393.901 0.471 4418.115 2078.780 978.093
4418.891 0.291 3608.718 1050.229 305.644
17593.975 0.060 1277.436 76.974 4.638
156391.615 19.427 145973.679 82202.148 55103.791
4010.041 3742.915 2107.747 1412.918
M130 M101 M102 M103
β3

Maximum Likelihood estimator

m 3.957
s 0.2437807

P 0.01
W 3.0348543
U 2.3267853
X100 33420.844
C0 2.515517 d1 1.432788
C1 0.802853 d2 0.189269
C2 0.010328 d3 0.001308
 Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph (IUH) Nash M
Submitted by : Hamse Hussein Adam ID: PRAMIT/18
Department of Hydraulic and Water Resources Enginee

GIVEN DATAS

Drainage area= 36km^2

Abstractions= 0.5cm/hr
Base flow= 5m^3/s
Table
6hr period 1 2 3 4
Rainfall in (c 1.5 3.5 2.5 1.5
stream flow ( 15 75 170 185

Reqired Detemine the peak of the IUH Using Nash model

Solution

Calculation of M1Q & M2Q

1 2 3
Base flow stream
flow time ord DOR Avg DOR
(m3/sec.)
0 0 0 0 0
5 15 6 10 5
5 75 12 70 35
5 170 18 165 82.5
5 185 24 180 90
5 147 30 142 71
5 84 36 79 39.5
5 43 42 38 19
5 18 48 13 6.5
5 8 54 3 1.5
sum

M1Q = 25.251428571 where

M2Q = 737.28

Calculation of M1h & M2h

1 2 3 4 5
time DOR interval Δt inc.areamoment arm
 0 0 0 0 0
6 1 6 1 3
12 3 6 3 9
18 2 6 2 15
24 1 6 1 21
sum 7

M1h= 11.57143
M2h= 181.2857

calculate the value of n & K

nk = M1Q – M1h
nk = 13.68

M2Q – M2h = n(n + 1)k2 + 2 *nk* M1h

M2Q – M2h = 555.9943

2 *nk* M1h= 316.5943
(nk)2= 187.1424
nk2 ?
From eqn (1)
M2Q – M2h = n(n + 1)k2 + 2 *nk* M1h

555.9943= (nk)^2+nk^2+316.5943
555.9943= 187.1424 +nk^2+316.5943
nk2= 52.2576
But, nk=13.68 from thus n=13.68/k

(13.68/k)*k^2=52.2576

k= 3.82
n= 3.581152

time(hr) t/3 e-t/3 (t/3)3

t
1 2 3 4
0 0 1 0
6 2 0.135164 8
12 4 0.018269 64
18 6 0.002469 216
24 8 0.000334 512
30 10 4.51E-05 1000
36 12 6.1E-06 1728
 42 14 8.24E-07 2744
48 16 1.11E-07 4096
54 18 1.51E-08 5832
60 20 2.04E-09 8000
66 22 2.75E-10 10648
72 24 3.72E-11 13824
78 26 5.03E-12 17576
84 28 6.79E-13 21952
90 30 9.18E-14 27000

time(hr) runoff IUHO

0 0
6 18.03633218
12 19.502954347
18 8.8968521465
24 2.8504588448
30 0.7525008693
36 0.1757571234
42 0.0377238055
48 0.0076112069
54 0.001464783
60 0.0002715864
66 4.885941E-05
72 8.573854E-06
78 1.473413E-06
84 2.487372E-07
90 4.135164E-08

time(hr) cumec Avg. 6hr UGO

0 0
6 9.01816609
12 18.769643263 20
18 14.199903247 18
24 5.8736554957 16
30 1.8014798571 14
36 0.4641289964 12
42 0.1067404645 10
48 0.0226675062 8
54 0.004537995 6
60 0.0008681847 4
66 0.0001602229 2
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
 8
6
4
2
0
72 2.871663E-05
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
78 5.023634E-06
84 8.610753E-07
90 0.000000145
ograph (IUH) Nash Model
Adam ID: PRAMIT/1833/11
Water Resources Engineering

5 6 7 8 9

147 84 43 18 8

Nash model

4 5 6 7 8 9

interval Δt inc.area mom't arm 1st momt 2nd momt_a 2nd momt_b

0 0 0 0 0 0
6 5 3 30 180 90
6 35 9 420 5040 630
6 82.5 12 1485 26730 1485
6 90 15 2160 51840 1620
6 71 18 2130 63900 1278
6 39.5 21 1422 51192 711
6 19 24 798 33516 342
6 6.5 27 312 14976 117
6 1.5 30 81 4374 27
350 8838 251748 6300

M1Q = sum 1st momt and M2Q = (sum 2st momt a+sum 2st momt b)
sum inc.area sum inc.area

6 7 8
1st momt 2nd momt_a 2nd momt_b AbstractioRain fall
 0 0 0 0 0
3 9 18 0.5 1.5
27 243 54 0.5 3.5
30 450 36 0.5 2.5
21 441 18 0.5 1.5
81 1143 126

EQ(1)

2
+ 2 *nk* M1h

k^2+316.5943
+nk^2+316.5943

us n=13.68/k

~3
~3

IUHO 6hr UGO

u(t) cm/hr u(t) cumec by averaging
(3)*(4)/6 (5)*2.78*36
5 6 7
0 0 0
0.1802191465 18.0363321799 9.01816609
0.1948736446 19.5029543468 18.7696432634
0.0888974035 8.8968521465 14.1999032466
0.028481803 2.8504588448 5.8736554957
0.0075189935 0.7525008693 1.8014798571
0.0017561663 0.1757571234 0.4641289964
 0.0003769365 0.0377238055 0.1067404645
7.605122836E-05 0.0076112069 0.0226675062
1.463612104E-05 0.001464783 0.004537995
2.713692635E-06 0.0002715864 0.0008681847
4.882035165E-07 4.8859408E-05 0.0001602229
8.567000218E-08 8.5738538E-06 2.87166309E-05
1.47223551E-08 1.4734133E-06 5.02363356E-06
2.485384186E-09 2.4873725E-07 8.61075274E-07
4.131858048E-10 4.1351635E-08 0.000000145

25

20

15

10

0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

20
18 IUH
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
8
6
4
2
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
2st momt b)