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Answer
Theoretical background
Beyond the normal utility maximizing agents, the efficient-market hypothesis requires that agents
have rational expectations; that on average the population is correct (even if no one person is) and whenever
new relevant information appears, the agents update their expectations appropriately. Note that it is not
required that the agents be rational. EMH allows that when faced with new information, some investors may
overreact and some may underreact. All that is required by the EMH is that investors' reactions be random
and follow a normal distribution pattern so that the net effect on market prices cannot be reliably exploited
to make an abnormal profit, especially when considering transaction costs (including commissions and
spreads). Thus, any one person can be wrong about the market—indeed, everyone can be—but the market
as a whole is always right. There are three common forms in which the efficient-market hypothesis is
commonly stated—weak-form efficiency, semi-strong-form efficiency and strong-form efficiency, each of
which has different implications for how markets work.
Answer
Definition: Liquidity refers to the availability of cash or cash equivalents to meet short-term operating needs.
In other words, liquidity is the amount of liquid assets that are available to pay expenses and debts as they
become due. Obviously, the most liquid asset of all is cash.
Example
Investors, on the other hand, are typically more concerned with the overall health of the business and how
it can increase performance in the future. Companies that struggle with liquidity usually have a difficult time
growing and increasing performance because short-term funding isn’t available. Poor liquidity is also a sign
to investors that the company fails to efficiently generate revenues with its assets to meet its current
obligations.
Creditors and investors usually prefer higher liquidity levels, but extremely high levels of liquidity could mean
the company isn’t properly investing its resources. For example, if cash represents 90 percent of a business’
assets, investors might speculate why these resources aren’t being used to grow the operations and invest
in new capital. Creditors obviously won’t care about this much cash because they just want to make sure
there is enough money to pay back the loans.
Definition: Solvency refers to the long-term financial stability of a company and its ability to cover its long-
term obligations. In other words, it’s the ability of a company to meet short and long-term debts as they
become due.
What Does Solvency Mean?
Both investors and creditors are concerned with the solvency of a company. Investors want to make sure the
company is in good financial standings and can continue to grow, generate profits, and produce dividends.
Basically, investors are concerned with receiving a return on their investment and an insolvent company that
has too much debt will not be able to generate these types of returns.
Creditors, on the other hand, are concerned with being repaid. If companies can’t generate enough revenues
to cover their current obligations, they probably won’t be able to pay off new obligations.
Example
Both investors and creditors use solvency ratios to measure a firm’s ability to meet their obligations. The
most common solvency ratios are the debt to equity ratio, debt ratio, and equity ratio.
The debt to equity ratio compares total liabilities to total equity. This is a comparison of how much money
investors have contributed to the company and how much creditors have funded. The more the company
owes to creditors, the more insolvent the company is.
The debt ratio compares total liabilities to total assets. This shows the amount of assets that are funded by
creditors. Conversely, it shows how much assets would need to be sold in order to pay off the liabilities.
The equity ratio compares total liabilities to total assets. This shows what percentage of assets investors
contribute.
Solvency can be viewed in two different ways. Short-term solvency usually focuses on the amount of cash
and current assets that can be used to cover obligations. Long-term solvency typically focuses on the firm’s
ability to generate future revenues to meet obligations in the future.
Liquidity and Solvency of Banks
The growth of any economy to a great extent depends largely on the performance of its banking sector. The
banking sector works as intermediary linking two parties; who gave the funds and the other party who
invested the funds for productive purposes and thereby contributing to economic development. In the
financial world, there are two types of banks. One is called commercial banking sector and the other is called
Islamic banking sector. The main difference between the two types of bank sectors is the philosophy in which
the banking sector depends on. In Islamic banking sector, the interest rate is totally prohibited even it is small
or large. Therefore, sometimes, it is called interest-free banking. In the other side, commercial banks are
based totally on interest. So, it is called interest-based banks. Nowadays, Islamic banks and commercial banks
are working together in a dual regulatory environment and there is a competition between them in attracting
potential customers and fulfilling their expectations and developing new instruments and modes of financing
which in turn benefits the economy in the long-term.
In the United Arab Emirates, the two types of banks are working together in a very competitive environment.
Recently, Islamic banks enhance their position in the world and particularly in the UAE during the global
financial crisis 2008. Islamic banks are partially affected by the crisis and outperformed than commercial
banks (Athanasoglou et al., 2005; Tabash and Dhankar, 2014). Also, from another side, Islamic banks
contributed positively to the growth of the economy of UAE (Tabash and Anagreh, 2017).
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) gives more attention and support for Islamic banking industry. For example,
Dubai Emirate is working on to become a hub for Islamic finance industry in the world. The UAE government
supports the Islamic banking industry growth through its strategic plan 2021 (Emirates Diary, 2015).
Currently, there are twenty-three local banks and twenty-two international banks working in the UAE. Out
of the twenty three local banks, seven are fully-fledged Islamic banks working under Islamic standards as
appeared in appendix (1) and the rest banks have both system, Islamic and traditional operations (Emirates
Diary, 2015).
Islamic banking sector accounts for 80% of total Islamic finance assets. Organizations like “Ernst & Young,
2015” and the Malaysia Islamic Financial Centre (MIFC) have predicted that the size of the Islamic finance
market will reach U.S $3.4 trillion by end of 2018, whilst Price water house Coopers (PwC) predicts a U.S $2.7
trillion market by 2017 (Islamic Finance Report, 2016). In the most of Middle East region countries, the assets
of Islamic banking assets are growing faster than commercial banking assets. There are also a huge demand
for Islamic banks products from non-Muslim countries like Malaysia, U.K, Germany and Hong Kong (World
Bank report, 2015).
Liquidity, profitability and solvency are the different dimensions of the performance of any bank. Each of
these dimensions is equally important as it plays a vital role in the maintenance of the bank financial viability.
If the bank is financially viable it would be able to survive for a long time in the future. The 2008 global
financial crisis has made a query on the persistent and increasing fragility of the financial institutions not only
in U.S. but also at a global level. Banks have weak capital structure to provide liquidity to interested parties
on time. Due to this capital structure, banks are often at the spot in the financial crisis (Diamond and Rajan,
2001). Therefore, the recent global financial crisis has brought to the surface the importance of bank
performance and profitability both at national and international level.
The banks has an increasing significance in emerging countries because banks are the major source of finance
and funding for the majority of firms and are main depository to encourage people for the saving
(Athanasoglou et al., 2008). UAE banks are the major financial intermediaries as they are playing a vital role
in the economic development of the country. UAE banks have performed well during the recent financial
turmoil, as it is evident from its annual credit growth and profitability. In the light of using technology, new
generation of both banking types have gained a reasonable position in the banking industry. In this
competitive environment, it becomes essential to measure the performance of the banks especially of Islamic
banks and commercial banks. So, the main focus of this study is to look into whether the performance of
Islamic banks is different from the conventional banks with respect to profitability, liquidity and solvency in
UAE and to determine the determinants of profitability for both Islamic and commercial banks.
Data and Methodology
The present study is analytical in nature and based on secondary data. The data has been collected for
Islamic and commercial banks of UAE. Data for Islamic banks is fetched from Islamic Banks and Financial
Institutions database (IBIS). The data for commercial banks is fetched from Bank Scope database. The time
period of the study includes 4 years ranging from 2011-2014. The sample of the study comprised of 7 fully-
fledged Islamic banks and 14 commercial banks of UAE. Different financial ratios have been calculated to
measure liquidity, profitability and solvency of UAE Islamic and commercial banks. Independent sample “t”
test has been applied to compare the mean of liquidity, profitability and solvency of Islamic and
commercial banks of UAE. Microsoft Excel, SPSS 22 and Views 7 are used to do all the tests and statistical
analysis. The list of Islamic and commercial banks of UAE is on the appendix 1. Further, in this study, we will
check the impact of liquidity and capital adequacy on the profitability of both Islamic and commercial banks
in the context of UAE by using stepwise regression model. But before applying the regression analysis, data
has been examined against outliers to be valid to the regression model. Therefore, correlation analysis has
been done for all variables. As a rule of thumb, if the correlation coefficients between two regressors are
less than 0.8, it means there is no multi-collinearity between variables. After correlation test, we can
proceed to multiple liner regression models. The current study depends on using stepwise regression
model to assess the relationship between ROA, donated as Y and two definite independent variables,
denoted as LQ and CA. Researcher found one restriction during the data collection for the mentioned
variables, which is unavailability of data for longer periods particularly for Islamic banks. The regression
model for the three variables is written below.
Where,
α: constant
LQ and CA: Independent variables to measure the performance of Islamic and commercial banking sector.
Ratios Used
• Profitability is a revealing indicator of the efficiency of the bank competitiveness in the market and quality
of its management. Return on Assets (ROA) is a barometer of the performance of the bank that measures
how efficiently the assets of the banks are being used. Higher the ratio indicates the better profitability of
the bank.
• Liquidity is crucial for the banks because they are the specialized form of business that is engaged in
borrowing and lending. Liquid assets to total assets represent the proportion of assets that bank has in the
liquid or cash and cash equivalent. This ratio represents the cash management of the bank (Table 1).
• Solvency is related to the ability of the bank to withstand the shocks (Arena, 2005). Capital adequacy ratio
is measured to ensure the capacity of the bank in meeting the losses. The higher the ratio, the more will be
the protection of investors. Ratios used in this analysis are shown in Table 1.
1. The time value of money - The idea that money received in the present is more valuable than the
same sum in the future because of its potential to be invested and earn interest -- is one of the founding
principles of Western finance.
Let's say you lent your friend $2000. Would you rather he repaid you today, or tomorrow? The logical choice
would be today, because you'll be able to use your money, and potential gains that come with it, sooner.
What Is the Time Value of Money?
Money is worth more in the present than in the future because there's an opportunity cost to waiting for it.
In addition to your loss of use if you don't get your hands on it right away, there's also inflation gradually
eroding its value and purchasing power.
If you're going to part with your money for any period of time, you probably expect a larger sum returned to
you than you started with. Whether you're lending or investing, the goal is to make a gain to compensate
you for going without your money for a while.
Suppose your friend offers to repay you $2000 today or $2050 next year. You must consider whether you'd
earn more than $50 over the next year by investing your money elsewhere before choosing to delay receiving
payment. Other factors include your time preference (whether you need the money right now or can wait
awhile to get it back) and whether you trust your friend to actually repay you -- another reason why money
is worth more in the present: it may never materialize in the future. As the saying goes, "a bird in the hand is
worth two in the bush."
Why Does the Time Value of Money Matter?
The time value of money matters because, as the basis of Western finance, you will use it in your daily
consumer, business and banking decision making. All of these systems are driven by the idea that lenders
and investors earn interest paid by borrowers in an effort to maximize the time value of their money. Your
job within this system is to limit the cost of money to you and to increase returns on your investments.
The concept isn't new -- it dates back to ancient times -- and although, as with Islamic finance, there may be
cultures that forbid charging interest, their decisions are driven by similar monetary concepts.
Formula for Calculating the Time Value of Money
So how do you measure the time value of money? The formula takes the present value, then multiplies it by
compound interest for each of the payment periods and factors in the time period over which the payments
are made.
Formula: FV = PV x [1 + (i / n)] ^ (n x t)
(PV) Present Value = what your money is worth right now.
(FV) Future Value = what your money will be worth at some future time after it (hopefully) earns interest.
(I) Interest = Paying someone for the time their money is held.
(N) Number of Periods = Investment (or loan) period.
(T) Number of Years = Amount of time money is held
2. Compounding
Compounding is the process in which an asset's earnings, from either capital gains or interest, are reinvested
to generate additional earnings over time. This growth, calculated using exponential
functions, occurs because the investment will generate earnings from both its initial principal and the
accumulated earnings from preceding periods. Compounding, therefore, differs from linear growth, where
only the principal earns interest each period.
BREAKING DOWN Compounding
Compounding typically refers to the increasing value of an asset due to the interest earned on both
a principal and accumulated interest. This phenomenon, which is a direct realization of the time value of
money (TMV) concept, is also known as compound interest. Compound interest works on both assets and
liabilities. While compounding boosts the value of an asset more rapidly, it can also increase the amount of
money owed on a loan, as interest accumulates on the unpaid principal and previous interest charges.
To illustrate how compounding works, suppose $10,000 is held in an account that pays 5% interest annually.
After the first year, or compounding period, the total in the account has risen to $10,500, a simple reflection
of $500 in interest being added to the $10,000 principal. In year two, the account realizes 5% growth on both
the original principal and the $500 of first-year interest, resulting in a second-year gain of $525 and a balance
of $11,025. After 10 years, assuming no withdrawals and a steady 5% interest rate, the account would grow
to $16,288.95.
Compounding as the Basis of Future Value
The formula for the future value (FV) of a current asset relies on the concept of compound interest. It takes
into account the present value of an asset, the annual interest rate, and the frequency of compounding (or
number of compounding periods) per year and the total number of years. The generalized formula for
compound interest is:
FV = PV x [1 + (i / n)] (n x t), where:
FV = future value
PV = present value
i = the annual interest rate
n = the number of compounding periods per year
t = the number of years
3. Discounting
Present value, also called "discounted value," is the current worth of a future sum of money or stream of
cash flow given a specified rate of return. Future cash flows are discounted at the discount rate; the higher
the discount rate, the lower the present value of the future cash flows. Determining the appropriate discount
rate is the key to properly valuing future cash flows, whether they are earnings or obligations. If you received
$10,000 today, the present value would be $10,000 because present value is what your investment gives you
if you were to spend it today. If you received $10,000 in a year, the present value of the amount would not
be $10,000 because you do not have it in your hand now, in the present. To find the present value of the
$10,000 you will receive in the future, you need to pretend that the $10,000 is the total future value of an
amount that you invested today. In other words, to find the present value of the future $10,000, we need to
find out how much we would have to invest today in order to receive that $10,000 in the future.
To calculate present value, or the amount that we would have to invest today, you must subtract the
(hypothetical) accumulated interest from the $10,000. To achieve this, we can discount the future payment
amount ($10,000) by the interest rate for the period. In essence, all you are doing is rearranging the future
value equation above so that you may solve for P. The above future value equation can be rewritten by
replacing the P variable with present value (PV) and manipulating the equation as follows:
Let's walk backwards from the $10,000 offered in Option B. Remember, the $10,000 to be received in three
years is really the same as the future value of an investment. If today we were at the two-year mark, we
would discount the payment back one year. At the two-year mark, the present value of the $10,000 to be
received in one year is represented as the following:
Note that if we were at the one-year mark today, the above $9,569.38 would be considered the future value
of our investment one year from now.
At the end of the first year we would be expecting to receive the payment of $10,000 in two years. At an
interest rate of 4.5%, the calculation for the present value of a $10,000 payment expected in two years would
be the following:
Of course, because of the rule of exponents, we don't have to calculate the future value of the investment
every year counting back from the $10,000 investment at the third year. We could put the equation more
concisely and use the $10,000 as the future value. So, here is how you can calculate today's present value of
the $10,000 expected from a three-year investment earning 4.5%:
The present value of a future payment of $10,000 is worth $8,762.97 today if interest rates are 4.5% per
year. In other words, choosing Option B is like taking $8,762.97 now and then investing it for three years. The
equations above illustrate that Option A is better not only because it offers you money right now but because
it offers you $1,237.03 ($10,000 - $8,762.97) more in cash! Furthermore, if you invest the $10,000 that you
receive from Option A, your choice gives you a future value that is $1,411.66 ($11,411.66 - $10,000) greater
than the future value of Option B.
4. Annuity
An annuity is a financial product that pays out a fixed stream of payments to an individual, primarily used as
an income stream for retirees. Annuities are created and sold by financial institutions, which accept and
invest funds from individuals and then, upon annuitization, issue a stream of payments at a later point in
time. The period of time when an annuity is being funded and before payouts begin is referred to as
the accumulation phase. Once payments commence, the contract is in the annuitization phase.
Understanding Annuity
Annuities were designed to be a reliable means of securing a steady cash flow for an individual during their
retirement years and to alleviate fears of longevity risk, or outliving one's assets.
Annuities can also be created to turn a substantial lump sum into a steady cash flow, such as for winners of
large cash settlements from a lawsuit or from winning the lottery.
Defined benefit pensions and Social Security are two examples of lifetime guaranteed annuities that pay
retirees a steady cash flow until they pass.
Annuity Types
Annuities can be structured according to a wide array of details and factors, such as the duration of time that
payments from the annuity can be guaranteed to continue. Annuities can be created so that, upon
annuitization, payments will continue so long as either the annuitant or their spouse (if survivorship benefit
is elected) is alive. Alternatively, annuities can be structured to pay out funds for a fixed amount of time, such
as 20 years, regardless of how long the annuitant lives.
Annuities can also begin immediately upon deposit of a lump sum, or they can be structured as deferred
benefits. An example of this type of annuity is the immediate payment annuity in which payments begin
immediately after the payment of a lump sum. Deferred income annuities are the opposite of an immediate
annuity because they don't begin paying out after the initial investment. Instead the client specifies an age
at which he or she would like to begin receiving payments from the insurance company.
Annuities can be structured generally as either fixed or variable. Annuities provide regular periodic payments
to the annuitant. Variable annuities allow the owner to receive greater future cash flows if investments of
the annuity fund do well and smaller payments if its investments do poorly. This provides for a less stable
cash flow than a fixed annuity, but allows the annuitant to reap the benefits of strong returns from their
fund's investments.
One criticism of annuities is that they are illiquid. Deposits into annuity contracts are typically locked up for
a period of time, known as the surrender period, where the annuitant would incur a penalty if all or part of
that money were touched. These surrender periods can last anywhere from two to more than 10 years,
depending on the particular product. Surrender fees can start out at 10% or more and the penalty typically
declines annually over the surrender period.
While variable annuities carry some market risk and the potential to lose principal, riders and features can
be added to annuity contracts (usually for some extra cost) which allow them to function as hybrid fixed-
variable annuities. Contract owners can benefit from upside portfolio potential while enjoying the protection
of a guaranteed lifetime minimum withdrawal benefit if the portfolio drops in value. Other riders may be
purchased to add a death benefit to the contract or accelerate payouts if the annuity holder is diagnosed
with a terminal illness. Cost of living riders are common to adjust the annual base cash flows for inflation
based on changes in the CPI.
In corporate finance, we try to compare the value of different streams of cash flows. Sometimes, we
exchange a lump sum value for a finite stream of future payments. However, in case of perpetuity, the
payments will never cease. A perpetuity is basically a stream of cash flows that never terminates. This means
that if we purchase a perpetuity right now after paying a certain lump sum, we should expect repayments
that last till the end of time.
Examples of Perpetuities
Although, valuing a perpetuity may not seem intuitive in the first place, it is required. There are many forms
of investments that mimic the features of a perpetuity.
Consider the example of common stocks. Common stocks are basically an investment in the operations of a
company. Theoretically the company has an infinite life. Therefore the shareholder is entitled to an infinite
stream of future dividends for paying the stock price now. It is for this reason that common stocks are valued
as a perpetuity.
Many universities have endowment funds that pay scholarships to students. They have been doing so for
centuries and plan to continue to do so forever. These funds were invested in a perpetuity by a philanthropist
many years ago. Now it continues to make payments till the end of time!
The most counter-intuitive part of perpetuity is the fact that it has a finite value. The question that comes to
everybody’s mind is that how can a series of infinite cash flows have a finite valuation. The answer is because
the real value of future cash flows keeps on falling. The present values are high in the early years. However,
the payment amount is fixed under a perpetuity. Therefore in the later years as and when inflation keeps on
increasing, the real value of the payments are continuously decreasing. It is because of this that the cash
flows in the very distant future will have a near zero valuation although it will never exactly be zero. Hence
using the formula for sum of an infinite series, the value of a perpetuity can be calculated.
The formula for valuing perpetuities is very simple and straightforward. It is as follows:
PV = C / R
Where:
Answer
1. Technical Analysis
Technical analysis is a methodology that makes buy and sell decisions using market statistics. It primarily
involves studying charts showing the trading history and statistics for whatever security is being analyzed.
How does Technical Analysis Work
To perform technical analysis, investors start with charts that show the price and trading volume history of
a particular security or index (for example, the Dow Jones Industrial Average) as well as host of other
statistical measures such as moving averages, maximums and minimums, and percentage changes.
The idea is to use the charts to identify trends and changes in those trends. There are several kinds of
trends and patterns, some with unusual names: rectangles, triangles, Bollinger bands, inverted heads and
shoulders, candlesticks, the MACD histogram, stochastic, and so forth. Some technical analysts also use
indicators and oscillators to interpret trading data.
Why does Technical Analysis matter?
Unlike fundamental analysis -- which focuses on finding a security's "true value" by studying financial
statements, market outlooks, competition, macroeconomic events, etc. -- technical analysis is based on the
belief that past market trends can predict the future behavior for the market as a whole and for
individual stocks.
If an investor can correctly interpret a chart's "message" and predict a stock's movement, he or she can
obviously make a lot of money. Certain aspects of technical analysis are controversial, such as the belief
that stocks and markets move in trends that can play out over a long period of time, and the contention
that market action can detect shifts in supply/demand relationships.
Most investors tend to be either technicians or fundamental investors, though many analysts believe that
combining technical and fundamental analysis is the best way to evaluate exit and entry points. Since many
people believe in technical trading rules, at the very least the rules can become self-fulfilling, making them
important to know for the individual investor.
2. Fundamental Analysis
Fundamental analysis is a method of evaluating the intrinsic value of an asset and analyzing the factors that
could influence its price in the future. This form of analysis is based on external events and influences, as well
as financial statements and industry trends.
Fundamental analysis is one of two major methods of market analysis, with the other being technical
analysis. While technical traders will derive all the information they need to trade from charts, fundamental
traders look at factors outside of the price movements of the asset itself.
How does Fundamental Analysis Work
Fundamental analysis observes numerous elements that affect stock prices such as sales, price
to earnings (P/E) ratio, profits, earnings per share (EPS), as well as macroeconomic and industry
specific factors.
Fundamental analysts use either top-down or bottom-up methods of analysis, or sometimes both.
A top-down analysis might function in the following manner:
1) The entire market is analyzed, including global and macroeconomic indicators
2) The specific sector, such as Technology
3) The industry, for example semiconductor manufacturer
4) The specific stock, for example company ABC
Conversely, a bottom-up analysis starts by investigating specific stocks first.
The fundamental analyst observes trends, market and price movements, company financial statements,
interest rates, return on equity (ROE), and numerous other indicators with one goal in mind: buying or selling
stocks that will provide a high return on investment (ROI)
KEY TAKEAWAYS
There are various tools and techniques that can be used for fundamental analysis, but they have been
categorized into two types of fundamental analysis: top-down analysis and bottom-up analysis. Top-down
analysis takes a broader view of the economy, starting with the entire market before narrowing down into a
sector, industry and finally a specific company. Conversely, bottom-up analysis starts with a specific stock
and widens out to consider all the factors that impact its price.
Most fundamental analysis is used for evaluating share prices, but it can be used across a range of asset
classes, such as bonds and forex.
The tools that traders might choose for their fundamental analysis vary depending which asset is being
traded. For example, share traders might choose to look at the figures in a company’s earnings report:
revenue, earnings per share (EPS), projected growth or profit margins. While forex traders may choose to
assess the figures released by central banks that allow insight into the state of a country’s economy.
3. Horizontal Analysis
Horizontal analysis of financial statements involves comparison of a financial ratio, a benchmark, or a line
item over a number of accounting periods. This method of analysis is also known as trend analysis. Horizontal
analysis allows the assessment of relative changes in different items over time. It also indicates the behavior
of revenues, expenses, and other line items of financial statements over the course of time.
Accounting periods can be two or more than two periods. Accounting period can be a month, a quarter or a
year. It will depend on the analyst’s discretion when choosing an appropriate number of accounting periods.
During the investment appraisal, the number of accounting periods for analysis is based on the time horizon
under consideration.
Horizontal analysis of financial statements can be performed on any of the item in the income statement,
balance sheet and statement of cash flows. For example, this analysis can be performed on revenues, cost of
sales, expenses, assets, cash, equity and liabilities. It can also be performed on ratios such as earnings per
share (EPS), price earnings ratio, dividend payout, and other similar ratio.
Horizontal analysis can be performed in one of the following two different methods i.e. absolute comparison
or percentage comparison.
Absolute Comparison:
One way of performing horizontal analysis is comparing the absolute currency amounts of some items over
the period of time. For example, cash in hand at the end of an accounting period can be compared to other
accounting periods. This method is helpful in identifying the items which are changing the most.
Percentage Comparison:
In the second method of horizontal analysis, percentage differences in certain items are compared over a
period of time. The absolute currency amounts are converted into the percentages for the purpose of
comparison. For example, a change in cash from $5,000 to $5,500 will be reported as 10% increase in cash.
It can also be reported as 110%, which means that the cash is 110% of the cash at the end of previous
accounting period. This method is useful when comparing performance of two companies of different scale
and size.
What Does Horizontal Analysis Mean
This formula for evaluation is typically done by either investors and internal company management since
both need to understand how well a company is doing in order to make decisions. Investors have to make
the decision whether or not they want to invest or sell their current investment; while management needs
to know what moves to make in order to improve the future performance of the company.
Since, any line item in a financial statement or financial ratio can be compared across a period of time, it
makes the horizontal analysis extremely useful for anyone trying to track a company’s performance over
time.
Example
An investor can see if a business is expanding and becoming more valuable or becoming less efficient and
less valuable. For example, an investor can use the horizontal analysis of the balance sheet to track the
earnings per share ratio on a company he is thinking about investing in. If the ratio continues to grow year
over year, the investor’s analysis would show a positive trend and he would probably choose to invest in the
company granted other metrics are equally as positive.
A manager, on the other hand, is concerned with the day-to-day operations of the company, so he uses this
evaluation technique to pinpoint areas for improvement. For instance, a manager might compare cost of
goods sold and profit margin over a two or three-year span to see how efficient the company is becoming.
This comparison of income statements will give the manager not only a benchmark for future performance;
it will also help him understand what needs to be changed in the future.
Although this comparison is useful on its own, investors and management typically use both horizontal
and vertical analysis techniques before making any decisions.
4. Vertical Analysis
Vertical analysis is a method of financial statement analysis in which each line item is listed as a percentage
of a base figure within the statement. Thus, line items on an income statement can be stated as a percentage
of gross sales, while line items on a balance sheet can be stated as a percentage of total assets or liabilities,
and vertical analysis of a cash flow statement shows each cash inflow or outflow as a percentage of the total
cash inflows.
How Vertical Analysis Works
Vertical analysis makes it much easier to compare the financial statements of one company with another,
and across industries. This is because one can see the relative proportions of account balances. It also makes
it easier to compare previous periods for time series analysis, in which quarterly and annual figures are
compared over a number of years, in order to gain a picture of whether performance metrics are improving
or deteriorating.
For example, by showing the various expense line items in the income statement as a percentage of sales,
one can see how these are contributing to profit margins and whether profitability is improving over time. It
thus becomes easier to compare the profitability of a company with its peers.
Example
Vertical analysis is said to get its name from the up and down motion of your eyes as you scan the common-
size financial statements during the analysis process. Most often, vertical analysis is used by management to
find changes or variations in financial statement items of importance like individual asset accounts or asset
groups.
Vertical analysis follows the same concept as benchmarking. Management sets a base amount or benchmark
goal to judge the success of the business. The base amount is usually taken from an aggregated from the
same year’s financial statements. Then the common-size percentage formula can be applied to the financial
item. The common-size percentage formula is calculated by dividing the analyzed item by the base amount
of benchmark and multiplying it by 100.
This percentage can be used to compare both balance sheet and income statement performance within the
company. Much like ratio analysis, vertical analysis allows financial information of a small company to be
compared with that of a large company. The common size percentage can also be used to compare different
companies within the same industry or companies that use different currencies.
Q. 5 Explain Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT). Discuss types of risk highlighted by MPT with Example.
Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) is an investment theory whose purpose is to maximize a portfolio’s expected
return by altering and selecting the proportions of the various assets in the portfolio.
It explains how to find the best possible diversification.
If investors are presented with two portfolios of equal value that offer the same expected return, MPT
explains how the investor will prefer and should select the less risky one.
Investors assume additional risk only when faced with the prospect of additional return.
In brief, MPT explains how investors can reduce overall risk by holding a diversified portfolio of assets.
The Best Portfolios Are on the Efficient Frontier
With MPT, investors create portfolios to maximize the expected return based on a given level of risk. And,
according to the theory, the best way to identify optimal diversification is through something called
an efficient frontier.
The efficient frontier is made of portfolios that offer the greatest expected returns for a given level of risk…
or vice versa, the lowest risk for a given level of expected returns. Markowitz — and a cadre of economists
who would fine-tune MPT over the decades — created a set of complicated mathematical formulas. They
define the boundaries of the efficient frontier.
Luckily, we’re not expecting you to be able to fully master and apply these formulas to your portfolio yourself.
That’s because there’s an entire group of services online to help you make the most out of MPT in your own
investment portfolio.
How You Can Use MPT in Your Portfolio
Robo advisors are among the hottest recent trends in the investing world. These services use computer
algorithms to create asset allocations in your portfolio. And, for the most part, these algorithms use the
principles of Modern Portfolio Theory.
In fact, Investor Junkie’s favorite robo advisor, Wealth front, published a white paper outlining its use of MPT,
calling it “the best framework on which to build a compelling investment management service.”
Meaning of Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT)
MPT Postulates those savers are generally risk averse and try to reduce risk by all possible methods. The
markets are perfect and absorb all information perfectly and returns are the same whenever you enter the
market. The principal of Dominance is applied to select a portfolio as the frontier line.
MPT depends on the concepts of diversification and use of Beta for reducing the risk and the concept of
Dominance for selection of a Portfolio with least risk, with returns being given.
Basis of Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT)
The Tripod on which the MPT depends are diversification of Markowitz type, concept of Dominance and use
of Beta.
A. Diversification-Investment in more than one security, asset, industry etc. with a view to reduce risks:
Diversification — an example:
Expected Return of X = 20%
Expected Return of Y = 30%
Risk (a) of Security X = 10%
Risk (a) of Security Y = 16%
Coefficient of correlation, between X and Y can have three scenarios -1, 0.5 or + 1. Corresponding graph
looks as follows:
Investment in X = 40% and in Y = 60%.
Where x is the fraction of the total value of the portfolio invested in the i th asset. The r’s can be called
weights to each of the assets. E (ri) represents the expected rate of return from the i th asset. The sum of the
weights is equal to 1, or
If there are ‘n’ number of assets which are considered for investment in the market their risk and return
characteristics have to be ranked in the order of highest return to lowest return and in the order of lowest
risk to the highest risk. The selection of the assets can be based on some criteria of dominance say maximum
expected return for a given level of risk. A computer aided mathematical program can be designed to select
the assets in the portfolio, subject to save given constraints, such as a tolerable level of risk, total amount of
investible funds or a minimum expected return for a given level of risk.
An efficient solution technique for portfolio selection lies in the use of differential calculus or linear
programming. A general form of the Model using the mathematical programme is set out below.
Calculus can be used to find a minimum risk portfolio for any given expected return E (x). Mathematically the
problem involves the finding of the minimum portfolio variance.
Thus minimize variance:
Subject to two Lagrangian constraints. Constraint Number 1 is that the desired expected return E® is
achieved.
Constraint Number 2 is that the sum of the weights given to assets in the portfolio is unity.
Combining the above three equations yields the Lagrangian objective function of the risk minimization
problem with a desired return constraint.
Martin A.D. Jr. solved this problem in the article published by him “Mathematical Programming of Portfolio
Selection”, Management Science, January 1955.
The minimum risk portfolio is found by setting dz/dxt = 0 for t = 1 … n and dz/dλt = 0 for t = 1, 2 … n and then
solving the system of equations for the xt’s.
The number of assets analyzed is ‘n’ and can be any positive integer.