Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
April 8, 2019
These survey results represent the opinions of 47 of the nation’s top money
managers, investment strategists, and professional economists.
This is not intended to be a scientific poll and its results should not be
extrapolated beyond those who did accept our invitation.
For those answering “no”: Why not? 9. Over the course of the rest of the year,
CAIN to the Federal Reserve, WILL he be 10. The Fed has indicated it will stop
confirmed by the Senate? reducing its balance sheet in September. Do
4. If President Trump nominates HERMAN 11. What is your primary area of interest?
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Yes 51%
No 19%
Don't
know/ 30%
unsure
Not
78%
qualified
Personal
67%
issues
Too
political,
threatening 78%
Fed's
independence 15% of all respondents
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Yes 34%
No 60%
Don't
know/ 6%
unsure
Not
71%
qualified
43% of all respondents
Personal
46%
issues
28% of all respondents
Too
political,
threatening 79%
Fed's
independence 47% of all respondents
Other 7%
4% of all respondents
“Other” responses: Other people are more qualified; Past misrepresentation of facts
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Yes 49%
No 28%
Don't
know/ 23%
unsure
Not
77%
qualified
21% of all respondents
Personal
54%
issues
15% of all respondents
Too
political,
threatening 62%
Fed's
independence 17% of all respondents
Other 8%
2% of all respondents
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Yes 40%
No 53%
Don't
know/ 6%
unsure
Not
76%
qualified
40% of all respondents
Personal
56%
issues
30% of all respondents
Too
political,
72%
threatening
Fed's… 38% of all respondents
Other 4%
2% of all respondents
Reducing the
Fed's independence 47%
Increasing the
Fed's independence 4%
Having no effect
on the Fed's 45%
independence
Don't know/
unsure 4%
Reduce the
Fed's credibility 48%
Have no effect
on the Fed's 39%
credibility
Enhance the
Fed's credibility 9%
Don't know/
unsure 4%
Jul 31 Apr 8
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
2%
Don't know/
unsure
0%
8%
Makes rate hikes
3%
more likely
9%
15%
Makes rate hikes
14%
less likely
22%
78%
Has no effect
83%
on rate hikes
65%
0%
Don't know/
0%
unsure
4%
9. Over the course of the rest of the year, the Fed should:
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Cut rates 9%
Don't know/unsure 7%
Agree with
the decision 62%
Don't know/
unsure 4%
Currencies Other
0% 15%
Fixed
Income
11%
Economics
54%
Equities
20%
Comments:
the longer run, overtly political picks like this will raise questions for
the political independence of the Fed. We do not want folks that are
hawkish when one party is in the White House and dovish when
another party is. If the Fed and the nomination process for
governors goes the way of the Supreme Court, it would not be a
pleasant outcome for the economic outlook. (After all, if the court
wasn't this way, why do judges wait for a president from their party
to come in before resigning?) Again, this is a longer-run worry, not a
near-term concern. But, if we see this concern show up in the
markets, you'll see it in longer-run inflation expectations. It is not
unprecedented for a president to look to challenge the leadership of
the Fed and influence monetary policy through the appointment
process. Recall that President Reagan reappointed Paul Volcker as
Fed chair but later packed the board with governors who outvoted
him in 1986 to force a rate cut. Neither Moore nor Cain has been
formally nominated, as both are undergoing background checks.
Names are often floated in the press to assess odds of confirmation,
so the White House is waiting to see if Cain has the votes to be
confirmed. Republicans hold a 53-47 seat advantage and could
afford to lose three votes with Vice President Mike Pence needed to
break a tie. Recall that Cain withdrew from the 2012 presidential
race after allegations of sexual harassment when he led the National
Restaurant Association. In the #MeToo era this would not help his
Senate confirmation prospects. Nominating Cain likely hurts Moore's
confirmation chances in the Senate since it signals a pattern of
Trump looking to politicize the Fed and will energize Moore
detractors. It will be difficult to support one and not the other.
Voting for both candidates exposes them to the risk of being
attacked for supporting the politicization of the Fed. Removing both
nominees from consideration would not be a good look for the White
House, so if McConnell makes Trump choose, Moore could be easier
to confirm than Cain. If you want to be politically cynical, you might
think Trump is nominating both knowing that one or both won't be
approved. That way Trump can continue to blame the Fed for the
economy not growing faster, which he'll pivot to when 2020
vetting.