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Requirements and Developments
Katrin Enders
Hill International, London UK
Frankfurt, 29 September 2015
OVERVIEW
Overview – Definition Forensic Schedule Analysis
Approach – Delay Analysis Methodologies pro & cons
Findings – Choosing a methodology, Fact is King, Guidance
Conclusions
2
OVERVIEW – DEFINITION
“‘Beware the dark arts’ was the sage advice of Albus
Dumbledore to the young Harry Potter. Besides budding wizards,
construction clients (at the project or dispute resolution stages),
contractors and lawyers would be equally well served by this
advice when it comes to the difficult subject of delay
analysis"...“delay analysis like Lord Voldamort, comes in many
guises and it seems there is a spell for every circumstance. ‘What
would you like conjured … err … proven, sir? Let me just mix up
some ‘fragnets’, ‘lags’, eye of newt and … hey presto!’”
(cited: BEWARE THE DARK ARTS! DELAY ANALYSIS AND THE PROBLEMS WITH RELIANCE ON TECHNOLOGY, David Barry, 2009 )
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OVERVIEW – DEFINITION
• FORENSIC SCHEDULE ANALYSIS
• “… refers to the study and investigation of events using CPM or other
recognized schedule calculation methods for potential use in a legal
proceeding.”
• “… the study of how actual events interacted in the context of a
complex model for the purpose of understanding the significance of a
specific deviation or series of deviations from some baseline model and
their role in determining the sequence of tasks within the complex
network.”
(cited: AACE® International Recommended Practice No. 29R‐03 FORENSIC SCHEDULE ANALYSIS TCM Framework)
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APPROACH
Overview – Definition Forensic Schedule Analysis and Nomenclature
Approach – Delay Analysis Methodologies pro & cons
Findings – Choosing a methodology, Fact is King, Guidance
Conclusions
5
APPROACH – DELAY ANALYSIS METHODOLOGIES
Retrospective Analyses Prospective Analyses
• As‐planned versus As‐built • Time‐Impact Analysis
• As‐Built But For • Impacted As‐planned
TWO
Types
FOUR
Categories*
* See for example the Society of Construction Law “Protocol on Delay and Disruption”, or Association for the Advancement of Cost Engineering Recommended Practice No.29R-03
“Forensic Schedule Analysis” 6
APPROACH – AS‐PLANNED VS AS‐BUILT (APAB)
• is the most basic method of analysis
• is observational – no changes are made to the programme
• straightforward comparison between the planned vs the actual
performance of the work
• can only be carried out retrospectively (requires as‐built programme/or at
least the overall as‐built completion date)
Strengths Weakness
• is very simple and therefore • Static critical path
easy to understand • fails to fulfil the fundamental
• can be performed with requirement to demonstrate the
rudimentary base data (e.g. causal link between a delay event and
when detail and logic of the as‐ its alleged effect
planned programme is unavailable, • does not deal adequately with
and no detailed progress records concurrent delay
other than the overall as‐built
programme are available)
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APPROACH – AS‐PLANNED VS AS‐BUILT (APAB)
Compare As‐Planned vs As‐Built
Activities Timescale
Planned CP Contractual Actual
Completion Completion
As‐built CP Date
Date
(delays)
Claim
(delays and disruptions)
APPROACH – IMPACTED AS‐PLANNED (IAP)
• is a prospective methodology
• delay effect is measured by imposing events on a model of the original
programme (Baseline)
• does not rely on any actual progress that has been made
• requires a robust and reliable original programme that reflects the
indented sequence and the Scope of Work
Strengths Weakness
• relatively simple to carry out and • cannot be used for complex projects
to understand • used to quantify potential delays rather
• No as‐built required (likely choice and actual
when planned programme is available, • concurrent delays easily overlooked
no significant changes in the sequence • assumes that the baseline was
during the project execution, few achievable
delaying events, and when there is
• does not take actual progress/ resources
little or no progress records)
into account
• not reliable in dispute resolution
9
APPROACH – IMPACTED AS‐PLANNED (IAP)
Activities Timescale
Event
Claim
Event
Event
Event
Event
Event
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APPROACH – TIME IMPACT ANALYSIS (TIA)
• prospective and dynamic method – but can be applied retrospectively
• takes account of progress and timing of delay events on the Works
• requires reliable as‐built data to update the programme (hence, if detailed and
regular progress data is not available then this method cannot be used)
• a reliable baseline programme is essential (ideally reflects the execution of the
planned project using sound construction logic)
• often undertaken in time slices (windows)
Strengths Weakness
• has a proven track‐record in • time consuming (to determine the factual
forensic application background and correct logic associated
• preferred method of the SCL with progress records and delay events)
Protocol • requires considerable degree of
• based on a dynamic and changing expertise and technical knowledge
critical path • hence, difficult to communicate, highly
• demonstrates cause and effect complex
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APPROACH – TIME IMPACT ANALYSIS (TIA)
Activities Timescale
Date of Project
Event Completion
Activity 1 Delay to Project
Activity 2 Completion
Activity 3
Delay Event
Progress behind
on this activity. Delay to Project
Completion (2)
• Delay (1) caused by poor progress
• Delay (2) caused by event
• Claim = difference between D (1) and D (2)
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APPROACH – AS‐BUILT BUT FOR (ABBF)
• retrospective method also known as Collapsed As‐built (CAB)
• relies on a detailed reconstruction of the as‐built programme
• normally restricted to after‐the‐event analyses in forensic work
• does have a limited prospective capability (can be used to demonstrate the effect
of a delay on the completed part of an incomplete project)
• has been proven to be reliable in dispute resolution/ claims
• If done properly can demonstrates effect and cause/ takes account of
concurrence
Strengths Weakness
• greatest strength for forensic work • complicated method hence, difficult to
is that it is fact based (based on as‐ execute and to explain
build) • difficult to establish a dynamic as‐built
• not reliant upon an as‐planned schedule (as complicated to determine and
programme model logic)
• requires detailed as‐build/ progress
records
13
APPROACH – AS‐BUILT BUT FOR (ABBF)
• Identify Planned Period & As‐built
Planned Actual
Planned Completion Completion
period
As‐built
14
APPROACH – AS‐BUILT BUT FOR (ABBF)
• Identify Delays
Planned Actual
Planned Completion Completion
period
As‐built
15
APPROACH – AS‐BUILT BUT FOR (ABBF)
• ‘Zero’ delays
Planned Actual
Planned Completion Completion
period
As‐built
Actual Completion ‘but for’
delays
16
APPROACH – AS‐BUILT BUT FOR (ABBF)
• Quantify Claim
Extended
Completion
Contract
Contract Completion
period Actual
Completion
As‐built
Culpable or non‐ Claim
claimable delays period
Actual Completion
‘but for’ delays
17
APPROACH – NOMENCLATURE
AACEI RP 29R-03: Forensic Schedule Analysis
Table 1 – Nomenclature Correspondence
18
FINDINGS
Overview – Definition Forensic Schedule Analysis and Nomenclature
Approach – Delay Analysis Methodologies pro & cons
Findings – Choosing a methodology, Fact is King, Guidance
Conclusions
19
FINDINGS – CHOOSING A METHODOLOGY
Which Method is appropriate, correct, sustainable?
• Legal/Contractual
• What does the jurisdiction/ contract require? (e.g. Concurrency? Likely or Actual delay
to completion? Delay Analysis Method Specified?)
• What information is available?
• Planned, progress, as‐built (Does a lack of information preclude the use of any of the
methods?)
• Time and Money
• Do time/cost constraints eliminate certain options? ((During project/After Project,
Record keeping; Staff available (Engineering/Management),Decision making, Budget)
• Other issues:
• Proportionality, Type of project, Which party, at what stage is the dispute?
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FINDINGS – FACT IS KING
Key Facts:
At least after an event delay becomes a fact and the Other Party/ the Courts are
interested in what actually happened rather than in what could have happened.
For an event to affect the completion date it must fall on the critical path of the
project.
Delay Analysis should be based on a calculated approach it can not be impressionistic
Effect and Cause not Cause and Effect
Are there facts/ evidence available and accessible to verify the cause?
21
FINDINGS – GUIDANCE
Recommend Guidance:
AACEI Recommended Practice (http://www.aacei.org/resources/ppg/)
SCL Protocol (http://www.scl.org.uk/resources)
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CONCLUSIONS
Overview – Definition Forensic Schedule Analysis and Nomenclature
Approach – Delay Analysis Methodologies pro & cons
Findings – Choosing a methodology, Fact is King, Guidance
Conclusions
23
CONCLUSIONS
Conclusions:
Delay Analysis comes in many guises all with their
advantages and disadvantages
To chose the most suitable method depends on the
surrounding factors
Facts and common sense are KING
24
QUESTIONS
QUESTIONS PLEASE ?
Katrin Enders
Associate Director
Hill International (UK) Ltd
11 Pilgrim Street,
London EC4V 6RN
Office: +44 (0)207 618 1200/ 1262
Mobile: +44 (0)7850722796
www.hillintl.com
25
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