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Overview 2
EY on BRI 14
EY on COIN 15
Acknowledgements 16
Contacts 17
B | EY Conversations
Foreword
I
n this edition of EY Conversations, we are excited to share some of
the latest thinking on the opportunities arising from China’s Belt
Road Initiative (BRI). China has seen a dramatic rise in terms of its
domestic economy and also its impact on the global economy. With
the BRI, China is demonstrating its ability to coordinate investment
and cooperation with the 68 countries in order to drive economic
development and stability across a large section of the world. This
will undoubtedly drive new opportunities both for Chinese and foreign
firms in a range of impacted industries. As an example, we have seen
an increase of nearly 50% in Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI)
into ASEAN between 2015 and 2016.
While we expect that the main impact from BRI will be in the traditional areas of infrastructure
and development, we also recognize the emergence of China as a technology leader. We would
therefore expect that new opportunities in technology, and in particular, FinTech will emerge -
especially including advances in artificial intelligence, blockchain and analytics.
Finally, while we expect that the BRI will bring opportunities and economic growth, we also
recognize that the global economic situation is still uncertain and that challenges may arise
due to differences in regulation, culture, transparency and even language in many of these
markets. Investors will need to exercise prudence in their evaluation of the opportunities
and in many cases, need to take a long-term view. Additionally, competition for merger and
acquisition (M&A) targets will likely intensify in these markets leading to increases in valuation.
Dustin Ball
Partner, Asia Pacific Insurance Transactions Leader
1
Source: Bloomberg
2 | EY Conversations
Lowest risk Highest risk
Lowest risk Highest risk
Russia
Russia
Belarus
Poland Belarus
Germany Poland
Germany Ukraine
Ukraine Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan Mongolia
Romania Mongolia
Romania
Bulgaria
Bulgaria
Italy
Italy Uzbekistan
Uzbekistan
Greece
Greece
Turkey
Turkey
China
China
Iran
Iran
Pakistan
Pakistan
Algeria
Algeria Libya
Libya
Egypt
Egypt
Saudi
Saudi Silk
Silk Road
Road Economic
Economic BeltBelt
Arabia
Arabia
India
India 21st Century
21st Maritime
Century SilkSilk
Maritime Road Road
Oman
Oman
Sudan Yemen
Yemen
Sudan Vietnam
Vietnam
Djibouti
Djibouti
Ethiopia
Ethiopia SriLanka
Sri Lanka Malaysia
Malaysia
Kenya
Kenya
Tanzania Indonesia
Tanzania Indonesia
4 | EY Conversations
GDP China vs. US (US$ trillion) 19
19
18
17
17
16
16
15
14 15 14
14
13
12 12
12 11 11
11 11 11
10
10 10
9 9
9
8
8 8
7
7
7
6 6 6
6
5 5
5 5 5
4
4 3
4
3 3
3 2
2
1 2
1 1 1
1 1 1 1
0 0 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ASEAN To achieve a seamlessly and comprehensively connected and integrated ASEAN that
Connectivity 2025 will promote competitiveness, inclusiveness, and a greater sense of Community
Strategic objectives
Strategies
Sustainable • Increase public and private infrastructure investment in each ASEAN Member State, as needed
infrastructure • Significantly enhance the evaluation and sharing of best practices on infrastructure
productivity in ASEAN
• Increase the deployment of smart urbanisation models across ASEAN
Digital • Support the adoption of technology by micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs)
innovation • Support financial access through digital technologies
• Improve open data use in ASEAN Member States
• Support enhanced data management in ASEAN Member States
Regulatory • Harmonise or mutually recognise standards, conformance, and technical regulations for
excellence products in key sectors
• Reduce number of trade-distorting non-tariff measures across ASEAN Member States
6 | EY Conversations
“ Citi Research estimates ASEAN’s
annual infrastructure needs to exceed
US$100b in the next 10-15 years.”
convergent in their interests of developing transport different stages of development. There is much for
connectivity, and facilitating better access for trade, companies and governments alike in this part of the
capital flows, tourism and human capital exchanges. world to cheer about.
As BRI is a mammoth project, China knows it cannot
accomplish the BRI alone despite its vast capacity
and resources as the world’s second-largest economy.
This perspective is a key reason why China is seeking
cooperation across the BRI’s geographical spread of over
65 countries. My advice to our clients in ASEAN is to tap
on the BRI opportunity by forming strategic alliances with
the right partners to navigate the many uncertainties and
overcome the risks that lie ahead. At its core, the strategy
should be about creating win-win situations.
In summary, BRI is set to power the wheels of long term
economic growth in ASEAN and the wider region as it
presents multifaceted opportunities for countries in
1
22
Switzerland US$48.8b* UK US$15.5b
4
20
* Include the deal that ChemChina acquired Swiss Syngenta for US$43b Big 4 state-owned commercial bank
Source: Mergermarket, including data for Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan
China Development bank
Export-Import Bank of China
Silk Road Fund
Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank
New Develpment Bank
(aka Brics bank)
200 183.2
In H1 2017, China has
been steadily boosting its 150
145.7
investments along the Belt 123.1
107.8
and Road, with newly signed 88.9
100 87.8
engineering, procurement 68.8 74.7
and construction (EPC) deals 55.9 56.5 48.2
amounting to US$71.4b, a 50
26.5
YoY increase of 39%
Note: Data of H1 2016 and H1 2017 are non-financial outward of FDI flows
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Souce: MOFCOM
8 | EY Conversations
Geographical distribution of Chinese enterprises’ overseas M&As
(proportion of value, US$ bn) and key investment destinations in 2016
North
America Europe Asia
Latin
America Africa Oceania
7% 2% 2%
Brazil Congo and Australia and
South Africa New Zealand
* Source Mergermarket, including data for Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan
Singapore 2 2 5 2 1 2 24
Malaysia 24 20 15 17 20 39 27
Russian 35 123 25 72 65 62 13
Federation
China 42 39 14 43 49 56 105
Thailand 49 60 77 65 42 61 55
Indonesia 60 75 39 75 62 89 38
India 68 51 23 48 63 88 123
Brunei 78 41 na 87 84 52 85
Vietnam 79 89 52 77 86 85 40
Philippines 95 106 89 113 116 94 65
Cambodia 106 93 98 76 99 106 35
Lao PDR 108 91 na 132 100 77 131
Mongolia 110 109 69 137 124 97 93
Pakistan 116 77 53 84 91 121 130
10 | EY Conversations
Michael: Singapore has taken a public stance on the BRI — The surge in BRI momentum is also timely. As the
Home Affairs and Law Minister K. Shanmugam recently gave chairman of ASEAN in 2018, Singapore will have the
a wide ranging speech indicating strong support for the opportunity to advance BRI initiatives in the region
initiative but also pointing out risks. for shared economic benefits.
33%
The Monetary Authority of Singapore Managing Director,
Ravi Menon, recently shared that annual direct investment
between Singapore and Chongqing stands at 22.2 billion
yuan, which is up from 7.4 billion yuan five years ago. As of all outward investments related to the
at end 2016, through the Chongqing Connectivity Initiative BRI flows through Singapore
project, Chongqing corporates have raised 22 billion yuan in
offshore financing from Singapore-based financial institutions.
Underpinning Singapore’s unique geographical location is its
strong ecosystem of financial institutions and professional
services providers, an established capital market, its status
85%
of inbound investments for BRI initiative
as one of the largest offshore renminbi centres and the makes it way into China through Singapore
important role that it plays managing FX risks for companies.
Against this backdrop, without a doubt, BRI is opening up
significant opportunities for companies, large and small,
operating in this part of the world to leverage Singapore’s
strengths. In addition, the positive domino effect on the
Top 10
economy, although not immediate, cannot be underestimated. largest BRI trade partners with China
The Singapore government has already openly signaled its (total trade): Vietnam, Thailand,
support for BRI and that should translate to better facilitation Singapore, UAE, Russia, Indonesia,
and support for companies investing into the BRI corridor. Philippines, India, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia
12 | EY Conversations
“ We should pursue innovation-driven development and
intensify cooperation in frontier areas such as digital
economy, artificial intelligence, nanotechnology and
quantum computing, and advance the development
of big data, cloud computing and smart cities so as to
turn them into a digital silk road of the 21st century.”
President Xi Jingping at the opening of the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation in May 2017
14 | EY Conversations
Key Perspective Reviews
Culture:
Do you have the global
talent to manage this
opportunity?
Network
Risk:
Is your risk culture
and mechanism fit
Will your customers
for purpose?
or supply chains be
reconfigured by BRI?
Social responsibility:
Can you align
Are they taking the right opportunity and
steps to capitalize on the responsibility?
opportunity and mitigate
the risks?
Partners:
Which institutions can
enable you?
Review your portfolio:
which markets, segments
and channels will grow Governance:
asymmetrically as a Is decision making sound
result of BRI over the and transparent?
next decade—how you
might reconfigure your
Capital:
portfolio, and invest or
Are your financing
divest in order to position
sources sufficient
yourself optimally?
and diversified?
Based in Singapore, Amol is responsible for the leadership Michael is a partner for the EY-Parthenon practice of
of Citi’s ASEAN markets of Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Ernst & Young Solutions LLP, where he leads banking
Philippines, Vietnam and Thailand. As CEO for Singapore, and capital markets transactions across Asia-Pacific.
he is responsible for all of Citi’s businesses and operations Michael has 20 years of experience in strategy consulting,
in the country. private equity, banking and technology in Europe, the
Middle East and Asia, where he has been based for
Amol is a 28-year Citi veteran, and has held a number of 10 years.
senior positions in London, New York, India and Hong Kong.
Prior to moving to Singapore from Hong Kong, he was the Michael serves financial services clients on topics such as
Region Head for the Treasury and Trade Solutions (TTS) corporate strategy, transactions and M&A, partnerships,
business in Asia Pacific from 2012-16. organization, governance, transformation, sales
productivity, analytics and risk. Michael’s most recent
Amol holds a Master’s of Business Administration from engagements include segment strategy, bancassurance
Bombay University. transaction and implementation, negotiation support,
partnership formation and organizational design. His clients
include global and regional financial services institutions,
principal investors and local Asian banks and insurers.
Prior to joining EY in 2014, Michael held senior private
equity and strategy roles at CIMB Group and was
board director and investment committee member of
several private equity funds, infrastructure funds, fund
management companies and portfolio entities. Previously,
he was a strategy consultant at McKinsey & Company in
Singapore, and he served as an emerging markets strategy
manager at Barclays Bank based in Dubai. He started
his career as a banking and capital markets technology
architect at Accenture in London, Frankfurt, Dublin and
Bangalore. Michael holds an MBA from INSEAD .
16 | EY Conversations
Contact
Brian Thung
EY ASEAN Financial Services Leader
Singapore
brian.thung@sg.ey.com
+65 6309 6227
Dustin Ball
Asia Pacific Insurance Transactions Leader
Partner
Hong Kong
dustin.ball@hk.ey.com
+852 2675 2838
Michael McGauran
EY Asia-Pacific Banking & Capital Markets
Transactions & Strategy Leader
Singapore
michael.mcgauran@sg.ey.com
+65 6309 6048
Stuart Last
EY Transaction Advisory Services
Partner
Singapore
stuart.last@ey.com
+65 6309 8012
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