QMM5100 W19 Probability HW Solution

1) A case of 24 cans contains 1 can that is contaminated. Three cans are to be chosen
randomly for testing. How many different sets of 3 cans could be selected?

𝑁 𝑁!
Ans: 𝐶𝑛𝑁 = ( ) =
𝑛 𝑛!(𝑁−𝑛)!

24!
𝐶𝑛𝑁 = 3!(24−3)!

𝐶𝑛𝑁 = 2024

2024 different sets of 3 cans could be selected.

2) A state’s license plate has 6 positions, each of which has 37 possibilities (letter,
integer, or blank). If someone requests a license plate with the first three positions to
be BMW how many different license plates would satisfy this request?

Ans: (37) (37) (37) = 50,653

50,653 different license plates would satisfy the request if someone

requests a license plate with the first three positions to be BMW.

3) You have to go to 5 different buildings on campus to turn in assignments. How many

different orders could you follow when visiting the 5 buildings?

Ans: 5! = 120

120 different orders could be followed when visiting the 5 buildings.

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QMM5100 W19 Probability HW Solution

4) Thirty-five percent of customers who purchased products from an e-commerce site had
orders exceeding $100. Fifty-five percent of customers who purchased products from
an e-commerce site pay with the e-commerce site’s sponsored credit card. Twenty
percent of the customers have orders exceeding $100 and also pay with the e-
commerce site’s sponsored credit card.

a) What is the probability a customer’s order will exceed $100 or the customer will
pay with the site’s sponsored credit card?

Ans: P(A) = 0.35 (probability of customer’s whose order exceeded

$ 100)

P(B) = 0.55 (probability of customer’s paid with e-commerce site

Sponsored credit card)

P(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0.20 (probability of customer’s whose order exceeded

$100 and paid with e-commerce site sponsored
Credit card)

P(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵 ) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 )

P(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 0.35 + 0.55 – 0.20

P(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 0.7

The probability a customer’s order will exceed $ 100 or the customer

will pay with the site’s sponsored credit card is 0.7

b) Determine the probability that a customer whose order exceeds $100 will pay
with the sponsored credit card.

Ans: P(A) = 0.35 (probability of customer’s whose order exceeded

$ 100)

P(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0.20 (probability of customer’s whose order exceeded

$100 and paid with e-commerce site sponsored
Credit card)

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QMM5100 W19 Probability HW Solution

𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
P( B | A) = 𝑃(𝐴)

0.20
P(B | A) =
0.35

P( B | A) = 0.5714 or 57.14 %

The probability that a customer whose order exceeds $100 will pay
with the sponsored credit card is 0.5714

5) A snack-food company produces potato chips on three different production lines.

Line 1 produces 20% of the total output, Line 2 produces 30% and Line 3 produces
the rest. Each line is sampled to ensure the salt content is within the proper range.
Historically, 4% of Line 1’s output does not meet salt standards, 3% of Line 2’s fails
to meet the standards, and 2% of Line 3’s does not meet the salt standards.

a) Construct a tree diagram to represent this problem. You do not need to submit
your tree diagram.

Ans: The tree diagram to represent the problem is as follows:

P(M |L1)
0.96

P(NM | L1)
0.04
P(L1) Note:-
0.2 M – Meet salt std.
P(M | L2) NM – Not meet salt std.
P(L2) 0.97
0.3
P(NM |L2)
0.03
P(L3)
0.5
P(M | L3)
0.98

P(NM | L3)
0.02

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QMM5100 W19 Probability HW Solution

b) What proportion of potato chip production does not meet the salt standard?

Ans: The proportion of potato chip production does not meet the salt
standard is calculated as follows:
M – represents meet salt standard
NM – represents does not meet salt standard

P(NM) = 𝑃(𝐿1 ∩ 𝑁𝑀 ) + 𝑃(𝐿2 ∩ 𝑁𝑀 ) + 𝑃(𝐿3 ∩ 𝑁𝑀 )

P(NM) = 𝑃(𝐿1 )𝑃(𝑁𝑀 | 𝐿1 ) + 𝑃 (𝐿2 )𝑃(𝑁𝑀 | 𝐿2 )

+ 𝑃(𝐿3 )𝑃(𝑁𝑀 | 𝐿3 )

P(NM) = 0.2*0.04 + 0.3*0.03 + 0.5*0.02

P(NM) = 0.027 or 2.7 %

The proportion of potato chip production does not meet the salt
standard is 2.7%

c) What proportion of potato chip production is on Line 1 and meets the salt
standard?

Ans: The proportion of potato chip production on line 1 and meets the
salt standard is calculated as follows:
M – represents meet salt standard
L1 - represents line 1

𝑃(𝐿1 ∩ 𝑀 ) = 𝑃(𝐿1 )𝑃(𝑀 | 𝐿1 )

𝑃(𝐿1 ∩ 𝑀 ) = 0.2*0.96

𝑃(𝐿1 ∩ 𝑀 ) = 0.192 or 19.2 %

The proportion of potato chip production on line 1 and meets the

salt standard is 19.2%

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QMM5100 W19 Probability HW Solution

d) A randomly selected bag of potato chips is selected and found to meet the salt
standard. What is the probability is was made on Line 1?

Ans: The probability that a randomly selected bag of potato chips meets
the salt standard and was made on line 1 is calculated s follows:
M – represents meet salt standard
L1 - represents line 1
L2 - represents line 2
L3 - represents line 3

𝑃(𝐿1 ∩ 𝑀)
P (L1 | M) =
𝑃(𝑀)

𝑃(𝐿1)𝑃(𝑀 | 𝐿1)
P(L1 | M) =
𝑃(𝐿1)𝑃(𝑀 | 𝐿1)+𝑃(𝐿2)𝑃(𝑀 | 𝐿2)+𝑃(𝐿3)𝑃(𝑀 | 𝐿3)

0.2∗0.96
P(L1 | M) =
0.2∗0.96 + 0.3∗0.97 + 0.5∗0.98

P(L1 | M) = 0.1973 or 19.73%

The probability that a randomly selected bag of potato chips meets

the salt standard and was made on line 1 is 0.1973

6) According to the Consumer Electronics Manufacturers Association, 10% of all U.S.

households have a fax machine and 52% have a personal computer. Suppose 91% of
all U.S. households having a fax machine also have a personal computer.

a) What is the probability that a randomly selected U.S. household has a fax
machine and a personal computer?

Ans: The probability that a randomly selected U.S. household has a fax
machine and a personal computer is calculated as follows:

FM – represents Fax Machine

PC – represents personal computer

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QMM5100 W19 Probability HW Solution

P(FM) = 0.10
P(PC) = 0.52
P(PC | FM) = 0.91

𝑃(𝐹𝑀 ∩ 𝑃𝐶 ) = 𝑃 (𝐹𝑀 ) 𝑃(𝑃𝐶 | 𝐹𝑀 )

𝑃(𝐹𝑀 ∩ 𝑃𝐶 ) = 0.10*0.91

𝑃(𝐹𝑀 ∩ 𝑃𝐶 ) = 0.091

The probability that a randomly selected U.S. household has a fax

machine and a personal computer is 0.091

b) What is the probability that a randomly selected U.S. household has a fax
machine or a personal computer?

Ans: The probability that a randomly selected U.S. household has a fax
machine or a personal computer is calculated as follows:

FM – represents Fax Machine

PC – represents personal computer

P(FM) = 0.10
P(PC) = 0.52
𝑃 (𝐹𝑀 ∩ 𝑃𝐶 ) = 0.091

𝑃(𝐹𝑀 ∪ 𝑃𝐶 ) = 𝑃 (𝐹𝑀 ) + 𝑃(𝑃𝐶 ) − 𝑃(𝐹𝑀 ∩ 𝑃𝐶 )

𝑃(𝐹𝑀 ∪ 𝑃𝐶 ) = 0.10 + 0.52 – 0.091

𝑃(𝐹𝑀 ∪ 𝑃𝐶 ) = 0.529

The probability that a randomly selected U.S. household has a fax

machine or a personal computer is 0.529

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QMM5100 W19 Probability HW Solution

c) What is the probability that a randomly selected U.S. household has a fax
machine and does not have a personal computer?

Ans: The probability that a randomly selected U.S. household has a fax
machine and does not have a personal computer is calculated as
follows:

FM – represents Fax Machine

PC – represents personal computer
NPC – represents no personal computer

As we are given with, P(PC | FM) = 0.91

We can calculate,
P( NPC | FM) = 1 - P(PC | FM)

P( NPC | FM) = 1 - 0.91

P( NPC | FM) = 0.09

𝑃(𝐹𝑀 ∩ 𝑁𝑃𝐶 ) = 𝑃(𝐹𝑀 )𝑃(𝑁𝑃𝐶 | 𝐹𝑀 )

𝑃(𝐹𝑀 ∩ 𝑁𝑃𝐶 ) = 0.10*0.09

𝑃(𝐹𝑀 ∩ 𝑁𝑃𝐶 ) = 0.009

The probability that a randomly selected U.S. household has a fax

machine and does not have a personal computer is 0.009

d) Are the events fax machine and personal computer independent? Why?

Ans: The events fax machine and personal computer are not independent
because 𝑃(𝑃𝐶 | 𝐹𝑀) ≠ 𝑃(𝑃𝐶 )

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QMM5100 W19 Probability HW Solution

7) In the mid-1990s, Colgate-Palmolive developed a new toothpaste for the U.S. market,
Colgate Total, with an antibacterial ingredient that was already being successfully
sold overseas. At that time, the word antibacterial was not allowed for such products
by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). In response, the name “Total” was
given to the product in the United States. The one word would convey that the
toothpaste is the “total” package of various benefits. Young & Rubicam developed
several commercials illustrating Total’s benefits and tested the commercials with
focus groups. One commercial touting Total’s long-lasting benefits was particularly
successful. The product was launched in the United States in January of 1998 using
commercials that were designed from the more successful ideas of the focus group
tests. Suppose 32% of all people in the United States saw the Total commercials. Of
those who saw the commercials, 40% purchased Total at least once in the first 10
months of its introduction. According to U.S. Census Bureau data, approximately
20% of all Americans were in the 45-64 age category. Suppose 24% of the
consumers who purchased Total for the first time during the initial 10-month period
were in the 45-64 age category. Within three months of the Total launch, Colgate-
Palmolive grabbed the number one market share for toothpaste. Ten months later,
21% of all U.S. households had purchased Total for the first time. The commercials
and the new product were considered a success. During the first 10 months of its
introduction, 43% of those who initially tried Total purchased it again.

a) What percentage of U.S. households purchased Total at least twice in the first 10
months of its release?

Ans: The percentage of U.S. households purchased Total at least twice in

the first 10 months of its release is calculated as follows:

A – represents who purchased “Total” once( first time)

B – represents who purchased “Total” twice

P(A) = 0.21 ( Probability that a randomly selected household

purchased “Total” in the introduction period at least
once)

P(B | A) = 0.43 (Probability that a randomly selected from those

households purchased “Total” in the introduction
period at least once purchased again)

𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴)𝑃(𝐵 | 𝐴)

𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0.21*0.43

𝑃 (𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0.0903 or 9.03%

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QMM5100 W19 Probability HW Solution

9.03% of U.S. households purchased Total at least twice in the first

10 months of its release.

b) Can you conclude the initial purchase of Total was independent of age? Use a
quantitative argument to justify your answer.

Ans: A – represents who purchased “Total” once

C – represents who purchased “Total and are in the 45-64 age
Category

P(C) = 0.20 (probability that a randomly selected household

purchased “Total” in the 45-64 age category)

P(C | A) = 0.24 (probability that a randomly selected from those

households purchased “Total” for the first time in
the 45-64 age category)

As 𝑃(𝐶 ) ≠ 𝑃(𝐶 | 𝐴)

Hence, age is not independent of the initial purchase of total.

c) Calculate the probability that a randomly selected U.S. consumer is either in the
45-64 age category or purchased Total during the initial 10-month period.

Ans: The probability that a randomly selected U.S. consumer is either in

the 45-64 age category or purchased Total during the initial 10-
month period is calculated as follows:

𝑃 ( 𝐴 ∪ 𝐶 ) = 𝑃 ( 𝐴 ) + 𝑃 (𝐶 ) − 𝑃 ( 𝐴 ∩ 𝐶 )

𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐶 ) = 𝑃 (𝐶 | 𝐴)𝑃(𝐴)

Take the values of P(A) and P(C | A) from part a and part b,
respectively.

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QMM5100 W19 Probability HW Solution

𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐶 ) = 0.24 ∗ 0.21

𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐶) = 0.0504

𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐶) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐶) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐶)

𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐶) = 0.21 + 0.20 − 0.0504

𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐶 ) = 0.3596

The probability that a randomly selected U.S. consumer is either in

the 45-64 age category or purchased Total during the initial 10-
month period is 0.3596

d) What is the probability that a randomly selected person purchased Total in the
first 10 months given that the person is in the 45-64 age category?

Ans: The probability that a randomly selected person purchased Total in

the first 10 months given that the person is in the 45-64 age
category is calculated as follows:

𝑃(𝐴 ∩𝐶)
𝑃(𝐴 | 𝐶) = 𝑃(𝐶)

Take the values of 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐶) and P(C) from part c and part b,
respectively.

0.0504
𝑃(𝐴 | 𝐶) = 0.20

𝑃(𝐴 | 𝐶) = 0.252

The probability that a randomly selected person purchased Total in

the first 10 months given that the person is in the 45-64 age
category is 0.252

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QMM5100 W19 Probability HW Solution

e) What percentage of people who did not see the commercials purchased Total at
least once in the first 10 months of its introduction?

Ans: The percentage of people who did not see the commercials
purchased Total at least once in the first 10 months of its
introduction is calculated as follows:
NP – represents who did not purchase
S – represents who saw the Total commercial
NS – represents who did not see Total commercial.
P – represents who purchased

P(P | S)
0.4

P(NP |S)
P(S) 0.6
0.32

P(NS)
P(P | NS)
0.68

P(NP | NS)

𝑃(𝑆 ∩ 𝑃) = 𝑃(𝑆)𝑃(𝑃 |𝑆)

𝑃(𝑆 ∩ 𝑃) = 0.32 ∗ 0.4

𝑃(𝑆 ∩ 𝑃) = 0.128

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QMM5100 W19 Probability HW Solution

𝑃(𝑁𝑆 ∩ 𝑃 ) = 𝑃(𝑁𝑆)𝑃(𝑃 | 𝑁𝑆)

We are given with,

P(A) = 0.21 ( Probability that a randomly selected household

purchased “Total” in the introduction period at
least once)

𝑃(𝐴) = 𝑃(𝑆 ∩ 𝑃) + 𝑃(𝑁𝑆 ∩ 𝑃)

𝑃(𝑁𝑆 ∩ 𝑃 ) = 𝑃(𝐴) − 𝑃(𝑆 ∩ 𝑃)

𝑃(𝑁𝑆 ∩ 𝑃 ) = 0.21 − 0.128

𝑃(𝑁𝑆 ∩ 𝑃 ) = 0.082

𝑃(𝑁𝑆 ∩ 𝑃 ) = 𝑃(𝑁𝑆)𝑃(𝑃 | 𝑁𝑆)

𝑃(𝑁𝑆 ∩ 𝑃)
𝑃(𝑃 | 𝑁𝑆) = 𝑃(𝑁𝑆)

0.082
𝑃(𝑃 | 𝑁𝑆) = 0.68

𝑃(𝑃 | 𝑁𝑆) = 0.12058 or 12.058%

The percentage of people who did not see the commercials

purchased Total at least once in the first 10 months of its
introduction is 12.058%

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