Safal Niveshak Stock Analysis Excel (Ver. 3.

www.safalniveshak.com

HOW TO USE THIS SPREADSHEET

Step 1 - This spreadsheet works only on Screener.in. The first step is to create a free account here - https://www.screener.in/re
Step 2 - After creating your account, while you are logged in to Screener.in website, visit this page - https://www.screener.in/ex
Step 3 - Visit the home page of Screener.in and choose a company of your choice. Once you do that, you will see details of you
financial statement table called "Quarterly Results" and click on "View Consolidated". Now, all data you see for this company wi
Step 4 - Scroll back to the top of the page, and you will see a button "Export to Excel" on the right side. Click the button and the
the exact format as "Safal Niveshak's Stock Analysis Excel Ver. 3.0". Now onwards, any excel you export for any company on S
Step 5 - Email me your love and testimonial for helping you with this excel. :-)

IMPORTANT INSTRUCTIONS
1. Ensure that the company whose data you are downloading has numbers at least starting from FY08 (March 2008). This is be
from, say, FY10, you will see incorrect data for FY08 and FY09 (which will be of Hero Motocorp on whose financials I have crea

2. All financial data of your chosen company will be automatically updated in the sheet you download, except "Cash and Bank"
figures, which you must update manually from the company's annual reports. Don’t forget to make these changes as these num
3. You may update the sheet and add your own analysis, formulae etc. and then upload again to Screener.in site using the Step
"Data Sheet" because this will cause errors in your future downloads.
4. DON’T touch any cell except the black ones, where you are required to update the numbers manually from Annual Reports (j
the growth assumptions etc.
4. I have added Comments and Instructions wherever necessary so as to explain the concepts. Read those carefully before wo
5. This sheet is not a replacement of the work required to read annual reports as part of the analysis process. So please do tha
some discrepancy in numbers (though rare), but you will know this only when you read annual reports.
6. I could not find a bug/errors in this spreadsheet, but if you notice some, please email me at - vishal@safalniveshak.com - and
7. I will keep on updating the sheet from time to time and will update the same on the website. I invite you to share your feedba
together.
8. This excel won't work for banking and financial services companies.

Note: All data is sourced from Screener.in

 Safal Niveshak Stock
Analysis Excel (Ver. 3.0)
www.safalniveshak.com
Basic Company Details
Parameters
Company
Current Stock Price (Rs)
Face Value (Rs)
No. of Shares (Crore)
Market Capitalization (Rs Crore)
Key Financials - Trend
Parameters
Sales Growth (9-Year CAGR)
Profit Before Tax Growth (9-Year CAGR)
Net Profit Growth (8-Year CAGR)
Average Debt/Equity (5-Years, x)
Average Return on Equity (5-Years)
Average P/E (5-Years, x)
Latest P/E (x)
Warning! Excel can be a wonde
the past. But it can be a we
destruction to predict the future
of what you are getting into. He
always equal garba
Details
INFOSYS LTD
717 Remember! Focus on decision
5.0 Look for disconfirming evidenc
436.9
313,274
Please! It's your money. Please
Details
results of this excel cause you
15.4% designed this excel to aid your
11.4% you alone are responsible for yo
10.5% live peacefully ever after! I am
- wants you to do the hard wo
23.1% companies on your own. But I'd
18.1 compass instead of a map, for
map with territory and lose it
20.3
 Excel can be a wonderful tool to analyze
past. But it can be a weapon of mass
on to predict the future! So be very careful
you are getting into. Here, garbage in will
always equal garbage out.

ber! Focus on decisions, not outcomes.

disconfirming evidence. Calculate. Pray!

t's your money. Please don't blame me if

of this excel cause you to lose it all! I've
d this excel to aid your own thinking, but
are responsible for your actions. I want to
acefully ever after! I am not a sadist who
you to do the hard work by analyzing
es on your own. But I'd rather give you a
ss instead of a map, for you can confuse
ith territory and lose it all. All the best!
 Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Parameter

Consumer monopoly or commodity?

Understand how business works

Is the company conservatively financed?

Are earnings strong and do they show an

upward trend?

Does the company stick with what it

knows?

Has the company been buying back its

shares?

Have retained earnings been invested

well?

Is the company’s return on equity above

average?

Is the company free to adjust prices to

inflation?
Does the company need to constantly
reinvest in capital?

Conclusion

Never Forget
 Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Explanation

Seek out companies that have no or less competition, either due to a patent or brand name or similar intangible that
makes the product unique. Such companies will typically have high gross and operating profit margins because of their
unique niche. However, don't just go on margins as high margins may simply highlight companies within industries with
traditionally high margins. Thus, look for companies with gross, operating and net profit margins above industry norms.
Also look for strong growth in earnings and high return on equity in the past.

Try to invest in industries where you possess some specialized knowledge (where you work) or can more effectively
judge a company, its industry, and its competitive environment (simple products you consume). While it is difficult to
construct a quantitative filter, you should be able to identify areas of interest. You should "only" consider analyzing
those companies that operate in areas that you can clearly grasp - your circle of competence. Of course you can
increase the size of the circle, but only over time by learning about new industries. More important than the size of the
circle is to know its boundaries.

Seeks out companies with conservative financing, which equates to a simple, safe balance sheet. Such companies
tend to have strong cash flows, with little need for long-term debt. Look for low debt to equity or low debt-burden ratios.
Also seek companies that have history of consistently generating positive free cash flows.

Rising earnings serve as a good catalyst for stock prices. So seek companies with strong, consistent, and expanding
earnings (profits). Seek companies with 5/10 year earnings per share growth greater than 25% (along with safe
balance sheets). To help indicate that earnings growth is still strong, look for companies where the last 3-years
earnings growth rate is higher than the last 10-years growth rate. More important than the rate of growth is the
consistency in such growth. So exclude companies with volatile earnings growth in the past, even if the "average"
growth has been high.

Like you should stock to your circle of competence, a company should invest its capital only in those businesses within
its circle of competence. This is a difficult factor to screen for on a quantitative level. Before investing in a company,
look at the company’s past pattern of acquisitions and new directions. They should fit within the primary range of
operations for the firm. Be cautious of companies that have been very aggressive in acquisitions in the past.

Buffett prefers that firms reinvest their earnings within the company, provided that profitable opportunities exist. When
companies have excess cash flow, Buffett favours shareholder-enhancing maneuvers such as share buybacks. While
we do not screen for this factor, a follow-up examination of a company would reveal if it has a share buyback plan in
place.

Seek companies where earnings have risen as retained earnings (earnings after paying dividends) have been
employed profitably. A great way to screen for such companies is by looking at those that have had consistent
earnings and strong return on equity in the past.

Consider it a positive sign when a company is able to earn above-average (better than competitors) returns on equity
without employing much debt. Average return on equity for Indian companies over the last 10 years is approximately
16%. Thus, seek companies that earn at least this much (16%) or more than this. Again, consistency is the key here.

That's what is called "pricing power". Companies with moat (as seen from other screening metrics as suggested above
(like high ROE, high grow margins, low debt etc.) are able to adjust prices to inflation without the risk of losing
significant volume sales.
Companies that consistently need capital to grow their sales and profits are like bank savings account, and thus bad
for an investor's long term portfolio. Seek companies that don't need high capital investments consistently. Retained
earnings must first go toward maintaining current operations at competitive levels, so the lower the amount needed to
maintain current operations, the better. Here, more than just an absolute assessment, a comparison against
competitors will help a lot. Seek companies that consistently generate positive and rising free cash flows.

Sensible investing is always about using “folly and discipline” - the discipline to identify excellent businesses, and wait
for the folly of the market to drive down the value of these businesses to attractive levels. You will have little trouble
understanding this philosophy. However, its successful implementation is dependent upon your dedication to learn and
follow the principles, and apply them to pick stocks successfully.

Focus on decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidence.

 Balance Sheet
INFOSYS LTD
Rs Cr Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19
Equity Share Capital 286 286 286 286 286 572 1,144 1,144 1,088 2,170
Reserves 22,763 25,690 31,046 37,708 44,244 50,164 60,600 67,838 63,835 62,778
Borrowings - - - - - - - - - -
Other Liabilities 4,687 5,493 7,295 8,599 12,744 15,871 13,606 15,047 14,967 19,790
Total 27,736 31,469 38,627 46,593 57,274 66,607 75,350 84,029 79,890 84,738

Net Block 4,946 5,235 5,555 7,139 8,378 11,346 13,386 14,179 12,574 15,710
Capital Work in Progress 409 264 590 1,140 961 776 960 1,365 1,606 1,388
Investments 3,702 144 372 2,116 4,331 2,270 1,892 16,423 12,163 11,261
Other Assets 18,679 25,826 32,110 36,198 43,604 52,215 59,112 52,062 53,547 56,379
Total 27,736 31,469 38,627 46,593 57,274 66,607 75,350 84,029 79,890 84,738

Working Capital 13,992 20,333 24,815 27,599 30,860 36,344 45,506 37,015 38,580 36,589
Debtors 3,494 4,653 5,882 7,083 8,351 9,713 11,330 12,322 13,142 14,827
Inventory - - - - - - - - - -
Cash & Bank** 4,735 3,367 3,190 3,393 2,605 3,546 4,618
** Manually enter this number; Convert to Rs Crore if not already done in the Annual Reports; Use Cash+Bank+Current Investments from Consolidated Balance Sheet in Annual Reports

Debtor Days 56 62 64 64 61 66 66 66 68 65
Inventory Turnover - - - - - - - - - -
Fixed Asset Turnover 4.6 5.3 6.1 5.7 6.0 4.7 4.7 4.8 5.6 5.3
Debt/Equity - - - - - - - - - -
Return on Equity 27% 26% 27% 25% 24% 24% 22% 21% 25% 24%
Return on Capital Employed 28% 22% 21% 20% 20% 19% 18% 22% 25% 24%
 Profit & Loss Account / Income Statement
INFOSYS LTD
Rs Cr Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Trailing
Sales 22,742 27,501 33,734 40,352 50,133 53,319 62,441 68,484 70,522 82,675 82,676
% Growth YOY 21% 23% 20% 24% 6% 17% 10% 3% 17%
Expenses 14,879 18,531 23,007 28,814 36,743 38,436 45,362 49,880 51,700 62,505 62,508
Material Cost (% of Sales) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Check for wide fluctuations in key
Power and Fuel 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% expense items. For manufacturing
Other Mfr. Exp 4% 5% 5% 6% 6% 7% 9% 10% 10% 12% firms, check their material costs etc. For
Employee Cost 53% 54% 54% 56% 58% 56% 55% 55% 55% 55% services firms, look at employee costs.
Selling and Admin Cost 8% 8% 8% 8% 7% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7%
Operating Profit 7,863 8,970 10,727 11,538 13,390 14,883 17,079 18,604 18,822 20,170 20,168
Operating Profit Margin 35% 33% 32% 29% 27% 28% 27% 27% 27% 24% 24%
Other Income 991 1,211 1,904 2,365 2,664 3,430 3,120 3,050 3,311 2,882 2,883
Other Income as % of Sales 4.4% 4.4% 5.6% 5.9% 5.3% 6.4% 5.0% 4.5% 4.7% 3.5% 3.5%
Depreciation 905 854 928 1,099 1,317 1,017 1,459 1,703 1,863 2,011 2,010
Interest 2 2 4 5 9 12 - - - - -
Interest Coverage(Times) 3,975 4,664 2,926 2,561 1,637 1,441 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Profit before tax (PBT) 7,947 9,325 11,699 12,799 14,728 17,284 18,740 19,951 20,270 21,041 21,041
% Growth YOY 17% 25% 9% 15% 17% 8% 6% 2% 4%
PBT Margin 35% 34% 35% 32% 29% 32% 30% 29% 29% 25% 25%
Tax 1,681 2,490 3,367 3,370 4,072 4,911 5,251 5,598 4,241 5,631 5,631
Net profit 6,266 6,835 8,332 9,429 10,656 12,373 13,489 14,353 16,029 15,410 15,410
% Growth YOY 9% 22% 13% 13% 16% 9% 6% 12% -4%
Net Profit Margin 28% 25% 25% 23% 21% 23% 22% 21% 23% 19% 19%
EPS 14.0 15.3 18.6 21.1 23.8 27.6 30.2 32.1 36.8 35.5 35.3
% Growth YOY 9% 22% 13% 13% 16% 9% 6% 15% -3%
Price to earning 24.2 25.3 17.0 15.1 17.0 19.3 20.1 14.8 15.6 21.0 20.3
Price 339 385 317 318 404 532 605 475 574 747 717
Dividend Payout 22.8% 50.2% 32.3% 25.5% 33.8% 55.0% 41.1% 41.0% 59.1% 60.6%
Market Cap 151,691 172,604 141,796 142,390 ### ### ### ### ### ###
Retained Earnings 4,836 3,403 5,644 7,027 7,052 5,566 7,941 8,461 6,563 6,075
Buffett's $1 Test 2.8

TRENDS: 10 YEARS 7 YEARS 5 YEARS 3 YEARS

Sales Growth 15.4% 13.7% 10.5% 9.8%
PBT Growth 11.4% 8.7% 7.4% 3.9%
PBT Margin 31.0% 29.6% 29.2% 27.8%
Price to Earning 18.9 17.5 18.1 17.1

Check for long term vs short term trends here. Check if the growth over
past 3 or 5 years has slowed down / improved compared to long term (7
to 10 years) growth numbers.
 Common Size P&L
Rs Cr Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Sales 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Raw Material Cost 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Change in Inventory 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Power and Fuel 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other Mfr. Exp 4% 5% 5% 6% 6% 7% 9% 10% 10% 12%
Employee Cost 53% 54% 54% 56% 58% 56% 55% 55% 55% 55%
Selling and Admin Cost 8% 8% 8% 8% 7% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7%
Other Expenses 0% 0% 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 2%
Operating Profit 35% 33% 32% 29% 27% 28% 27% 27% 27% 24%
Other Income 4% 4% 6% 6% 5% 6% 5% 4% 5% 3%
Depreciation 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 3% 2%
Interest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Profit Before Tax 35% 34% 35% 32% 29% 32% 30% 29% 29% 25%
Tax 7% 9% 10% 8% 8% 9% 8% 8% 6% 7%
Net Profit 28% 25% 25% 23% 21% 23% 22% 21% 23% 19%
Dividend Amount 6% 12% 8% 6% 7% 13% 9% 9% 13% 11%

Common Size Balance Sheet

Rs Cr Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Equity Share Capital 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 2% 1% 1% 3%
Reserves 82% 82% 80% 81% 77% 75% 80% 81% 80% 74%
Borrowings 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other Liabilities 17% 17% 19% 18% 22% 24% 18% 18% 19% 23%
Total Liabilities 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Net Block 18% 17% 14% 15% 15% 17% 18% 17% 16% 19%
Capital Work in Progress 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2%
Investments 13% 0% 1% 5% 8% 3% 3% 20% 15% 13%
Other Assets 67% 82% 83% 78% 76% 78% 78% 62% 67% 67%
Total Assets 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Receivables 13% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 16% 17%
Inventory 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Cash & Bank 38% 53% 53% 47% 45% 46% 43% 27% 25% 23%
 A common-size financial statement is displays line
items as a percentage of one selected or common
figure. Creating common-size financial statements
makes it easier to analyze a company over time and
compare it with its peers. Using common-size
financial statements helps investors spot trends that
a raw financial statement may not uncover.
 Cash Flow Statement
INFOSYS LTD
Rs Cr Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Total
Cash from Operating Activity (CFO) 6,187 4,797 6,394 7,373 9,825 8,353 10,028 11,531 13,218 14,841 92,547
Cash from Investing Activity -3,634 3,398 -147 -2,922 -2,563 999 -885 ### 4,533 -632 -16,517
Cash from Financing Activity -1,485 -3,640 -2,322 -3,210 -3,144 -4,935 -6,813 -6,939 ### ### -67,505
Net Cash Flow 1,068 4,555 3,925 1,241 4,118 4,417 2,330 ### -2,754 -303 8,525
CFO/Sales 27% 17% 19% 18% 20% 16% 16% 17% 19% 18%
CFO/Net Profit 99% 70% 77% 78% 92% 68% 74% 80% 82% 96%
Capex** 375 315 212 364 565 607 937 1156 1638 1238
FCF 5,812 4,482 6,182 7,009 9,260 7,746 9,091 10,375 11,580 13,603 85,140
Average FCF (3 Years) 11,853
FCF/Sales 26% 16% 18% 17% 18% 15% 15% 15% 16% 16%
FCF/Net Profit 93% 66% 74% 74% 87% 63% 67% 72% 72% 88%

** Manually enter this number;

Convert to Rs Crore if not already
done in the Annual Reports; Use
"Capital expenditure" number
shown under "Cash Flow from
Investing Activities" segment of
Consolidated Cash Flow Statement
available in the Annual Reports
 Earnings Power Value (Bruce Greenwald)
Read the book - Value Investing: From Graham to Buffett and Beyond by Bruce Greenwald (EPV is explained P
Explanation - Earnings power value (EPV) is a technique for valuing stocks by making an assumption about the sustainability
of capital but assuming no further growth. EPV formula = Adjusted Earnings / Cost of Capital

Company Name INFOSYS LTD

Latest Year Ended Mar-19

Calculation of Normalized Earnings

(Rs Crore) Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19
Sales 53,319 62,441 68,484 70,522 82,675
EBIT 17,296 18,740 19,951 20,270 21,041
Less - Adjustment 86 94 100 101 105
EBIT (Adjusted) 17,210 18,646 19,851 20,169 20,936
EBIT Margin'(Adjusted) 32% 30% 29% 29% 25%
Tax Rate 28% 28% 28% 21% 27%
Earnings After Tax (Adjusted) 12,320 13,422 14,281 15,949 15,333
Depreciation 1,017 1,459 1,703 1,863 2,011
Maintenance Capex (See Table Below) -32 -892 -56 1,229 -1,199
Earnings After Tax (Normalized, A) 13,368 15,773 16,040 16,582 18,543
Reported Profit After Tax (B) 12,372 13,489 14,353 16,029 15,404

EPV Process (as per Greenwald's book, slightly modified) -

1. Start with operating earnings, i.e. EBIT. Adjust any one-time charges. I deduct 0.5% of reported EBIT as this adjustment
2. Apply a tax rate to the adjusted EBIT. I use the actual tax rate calculated from the Income Statement. After reducing this tax,
3. Add back Depreciation
4. Subtract Maintenance Capex
5. After these four steps, you arrive at Normalized Earnings
6. Divide this Normalized Earnings number by the Discount Rate to arrive at EPV. I use 12% discount rate/cost of capital.
7. Note that Greenwald's process as per his book is slightly more detailed than what I have used here

Calculation of Maintenance Capex

(Rs Crore) Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19
Fixed Assets (PPE) 11,346 13,386 14,179 12,574 15,710
Net Sales 53,319 62,441 68,484 70,522 82,675
PPE/Sales 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.18 0.19
Change in Sales 3,186 9,122 6,043 2,038 12,153
Total Capex 607 937 1,156 1,638 1,238
Growth Capex 639 1,829 1,212 409 2,437
Maintenance Capex -32 -892 -56 1,229 -1,199

Calculating Maintenance Capex, as per Greenwald's book -

1. Calculate the Average Gross Property Plant and Equipment (PPE) / Sales ratio over 5-7 years
2. Calculate current year’s increase in sales
3. Multiply PPE/Sales ratio by increase in sales to arrive at Growth Capex
4. Maintenance Capex = Total Capex figure from the cash flow statement minus Growth Capex calculated above
(Bruce Greenwald)
nd by Bruce Greenwald (EPV is explained Page 93 onwards)
king an assumption about the sustainability of current earnings and the cost
rmula = Adjusted Earnings / Cost of Capital

EPV with Different Cost of Capital

Discount Rate EPV Net Cash** Total EPV Per Share
10% ### 4,618 190,045 435
12% ### 4,618 159,141 364
15% ### 4,618 128,236 294
Current Market Cap (Rs Crore) 313,274
EPV as % of Market Cap 51%

** Change the "Cash & Bank" number in "Balance Sheet" sheet

(Row #19) so that the correct number automatically reflects here

5% of reported EBIT as this adjustment

e Income Statement. After reducing this tax, we arrive at Adjusted Earnings After Tax

use 12% discount rate/cost of capital.

at I have used here

over 5-7 years

owth Capex calculated above

 Dhandho Intrinsic Value Calculation
Read the book - The Dhandho Investor by Mohnish Pabrai

INFOSYS LTD INFOSYS LTD

Dhandho IV - Lower Range Dhandho IV - Higher Range
Year FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr) Assumed FCF Growth Year
0 Excess Cash (Latest) 4,618 Year 1-3 15% 0 Excess Cash (Latest)
1 FY18 13,631 12,170 Year 4-6 10% 1 FY18
2 FY19 15,675 12,496 Year 7-10 5% 2 FY19
3 FY20 18,026 12,831 Discount Rate 12% 3 FY20
4 FY21 19,829 12,602 4 FY21
5 FY22 21,812 12,377 Last 5-Years' CAGR 5 FY22
6 FY23 23,993 12,156 Sales 11% 6 FY23
7 FY24 25,193 11,396 PBT 7% 7 FY24
8 FY25 26,452 10,684 FCF 8% 8 FY25
9 FY26 27,775 10,016 9 FY26
10 FY27 29,164 9,390 10 FY27
10 291,638 93,900 10
Intrinsic Value 214,635 Intrinsic Value
Current Mkt. Cap. 313,274 Current Mkt. Cap.
Premium/(Discount) to IV 46% Premium/(Discount) to IV

Note: See explanation of this model here

P.S. In case of companies earning negative FCF, where this model will not work, you must use a normalized positive FCF as
starting number. This number is your assumption of FCF the business will earn in a normal year, without capex. Check the his
this business while arriving at your assumption, and use your judgment wisely without twisting the model to fit your version of
Calculation
by Mohnish Pabrai

INFOSYS LTD
Dhandho IV - Higher Range
FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr) Assumed FCF Growth
Excess Cash (Latest) 4,618 Year 1-3 20%
14,223 12,699 Year 4-6 15%
17,068 13,606 Year 7-10 10%
20,481 14,578 Discount Rate 12%
23,554 14,969
27,087 15,370
31,150 15,781
34,265 15,500
37,691 15,223
41,460 14,951
45,606 14,684
684,093 220,260
Intrinsic Value 372,239
Current Mkt. Cap. 313,274
Premium/(Discount) to IV -16%

ust use a normalized positive FCF as the

al year, without capex. Check the history of
sting the model to fit your version of reality.
 Ben Graham Formula (Low Range) Ben Graham Formula (High Range)
Company Name INFOSYS LTD Company Name
Year Ended Mar/19 Year Ended

Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore) 14,330.8 Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore)
PE Ratio at 0% Growth 8.5 PE Ratio at 0% Growth
Long-Term Growth Rate 3.8 Long-Term Growth Rate

Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore) 231,541 Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore)
Current Market Cap (Rs Crore) 313,274 Current Market Cap (Rs Crore)

EXPLANATION
Ben Graham's Original Formula: Value = EPS x (8.5 + 2G)
Here, EPS is the trailing 12 month EPS, 8.5 is the P/E ratio of a stock with 0% growth and g is the growth rate for the next 7-10

Ben Graham's Revised Formula: Value = [EPS x (8.5 + 2G) x 4.4] / Y

Here, 4.4 is what Graham determined to be his minimum required rate of return. At the time of around 1962 when Graham was

Note: I have used Graham's original formula in the above calculations

m Formula (High Range)
INFOSYS LTD
Mar/19

14,330.8
8.5
7.7

341,269
313,274

g is the growth rate for the next 7-10 years

e of around 1962 when Graham was publicizing his works, the risk free interest rate was 4.4% but to adjust to the present, we divide this nu
e present, we divide this number by today’s AAA corporate bond rate, represented by Y in the formula above.
 Dicounted Cash Flow Valuation
INFOSYS LTD

Initial Cash Flow (Rs Cr) 11,853 ###

###
Years 1-5 6-10 86%
FCF Growth Rate 15% 12%
Discount Rate 12%
Terminal Growth Rate 2%

Net Debt Level (Rs Cr) (4,618)

Year FCF Growth Present Value

1 13,631 15% 12,170
2 15,675 15% 12,496
3 18,026 15% 12,831
4 20,730 15% 13,175
5 23,840 15% 13,527
6 26,701 12% 13,527
7 29,905 12% 13,527
8 33,493 12% 13,527
9 37,513 12% 13,527
10 42,014 12% 13,527

Final Calculations
Terminal Year 42,854
PV of Year 1-10 Cash Flows ###
Terminal Value ###
Total PV of Cash Flows ###
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) ###

Note: See explanation of DCF here

Valuation

DCF Value (As calculated in cell B29)

Current Market Cap
DCF as % of Current Mkt Cap
 Expected Returns Model
INFOSYS LTD
Particulars Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16
Net Profit (Rs Crore) 6,266 6,835 8,332 9,429 ### ### ###
Net Profit Margin 28% 25% 25% 23% 21% 23% 22%
Return on Equity 27% 26% 27% 25% 24% 24% 22%

Calculations (Enter values only in black cells)

Estimated CAGR in Net Profit over next 10 years 12%
Estimated Net Profit after 10 years (Rs Cr) 47,842
Current P/E (x) 20.3
Exit P/E in the 10th year from now (x, Estimated) 20.0
Esti. Market Cap (10th year from now; Rs Cr) 956,850
Cost of Capital/Discount Rate 12%
Discounted Value (Rs Cr) 308,080
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 313,274

Note: See explanation of this model here

el
Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19 CAGR (9-Yr) CAGR (5-Yr)
### ### ### 11% 8%
21% 23% 19%
21% 25% 24%
 Intrinsic Value Range
INFOSYS LTD
Lower Higher Remember! Give importance to a stock's valuations / fair va
EPV ### only "after" you have answered in "Yes" to these two questio
Dhandho ### ### (1) Is this business simple to be understood? and (2) Can
Ben Graham ### ### understand this business?
DCF ###
Don't try to quantify everything. In stock research, the less n
Expected Return ### mathematical you are, the more simple, sensible, and useful
Current Market Cap. 313,274 be your analysis and results. Great analysis is generally "ba
of-the-envelope".

Also, your calculated "fair value" will be proven wrong in t

future, so don't invest your savings just because you fall in
with it. Don't look for perfection. It is overrated. Focus on
decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidenc
 importance to a stock's valuations / fair value
ave answered in "Yes" to these two questions -
ness simple to be understood? and (2) Can I
understand this business?

fy everything. In stock research, the less non-

are, the more simple, sensible, and useful will
and results. Great analysis is generally "back-
of-the-envelope".

lated "fair value" will be proven wrong in the

vest your savings just because you fall in love
ook for perfection. It is overrated. Focus on
outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidence.
INFOSYS LTD
SCREENER.IN
Narration Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19
Sales ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###
% Growth YOY 3% 6% 12% 17% 20% 19%
Expenses ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###
Operating Profit 4,767 4,633 4,490 4,702 4,817 4,812 4,703 5,357 4,959 5,149
Other Income 820 746 814 883 962 652 726 739 753 665
Depreciation 433 446 450 456 498 458 436 463 580 531
Interest - - - - - - - - - -
Profit before tax 5,154 4,933 4,854 5,129 5,281 5,006 4,993 5,633 5,132 5,283
PBT Margin 30% 29% 28% 29% 30% 28% 26% 27% 24% 25%
% Growth YOY 2% 1% 3% 10% -3% 6%
Tax 1,446 1,330 1,371 1,403 152 1,316 1,381 1,523 1,522 1,205
Net profit 3,708 3,603 3,483 3,726 5,129 3,690 3,612 4,110 3,609 4,074
% Growth YOY 38% 2% 4% 10% -30% 10%
OPM 28% 27% 26% 27% 27% 27% 25% 26% 23% 24%
COMPANY NAME INFOSYS LTD
LATEST VERSION 2.10 PLEASE DO NOT MAKE ANY CHA
CURRENT VERSION 2.10

META
Number of shares 436.89
Face Value 5
Current Price 717.05
Market Capitalization 313274.23

PROFIT & LOSS

Report Date Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15
Sales 22742 27501 33734 40352 50133 53319
Raw Material Cost
Change in Inventory
Power and Fuel 145 167 184 215 219 219
Other Mfr. Exp 847 1255 1611 2440 3157 3979
Employee Cost 12085 14856 18340 22565 28831 29802
Selling and admin 1712 2188 2671 3313 3600 3394
Other Expenses 90 65 201 281 936 1042
Other Income 991 1211 1904 2365 2664 3430
Depreciation 905 854 928 1099 1317 1017
Interest 2 2 4 5 9 12
Profit before tax 7947 9325 11699 12799 14728 17284
Tax 1681 2490 3367 3370 4072 4911
Net profit 6266 6835 8332 9429 10656 12372
Dividend Amount 1430 3432 2688.4 2402.4 3603.6 6806.8

Quarters
Report Date Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18
Sales 17273 17120 17078 17567 17794 18083
Expenses 12506 12487 12588 12865 12977 13271
Other Income 820 746 814 883 962 652
Depreciation 433 446 450 456 498 458
Interest
Profit before tax 5154 4933 4854 5129 5281 5006
Tax 1446 1330 1371 1403 152 1316
Net profit 3708 3603 3483 3726 5129 3690
Operating Profit 4767 4633 4490 4702 4817 4812

BALANCE SHEET
Report Date Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15
Equity Share Capital 286 286 286 286 286 572
Reserves 22763 25690 31046 37708 44244 50164
Borrowings
Other Liabilities 4687 5493 7295 8599 12744 15871
Total 27736 31469 38627 46593 57274 66607
Net Block 4946 5235 5555 7139 8378 11346
Capital Work in Progress 409 264 590 1140 961 776
Investments 3702 144 372 2116 4331 2270
Other Assets 18679 25826 32110 36198 43604 52215
Total 27736 31469 38627 46593 57274 66607
Receivables 3494 4653 5882 7083 8351 9713
Inventory
Cash & Bank 10556 16666 20591 21832 25950 30367
No. of Equity Shares 570991592 571317959 571396401 571402566 571402566 1.143E+09
New Bonus Shares 574236166
Face value 5 5 5 5 5 5

CASH FLOW:
Report Date Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15
Cash from Operating Activity 6187 4797 6394 7373 9825 8353
Cash from Investing Activity -3634 3398 -147 -2922 -2563 999
Cash from Financing Activity -1485 -3640 -2322 -3210 -3144 -4935
Net Cash Flow 1068 4555 3925 1241 4118 4417

PRICE: 338.755 385.42947 316.6295 317.95475 403.79711 532.30425

DERIVED:
Adjusted Equity Shares in Cr 447.79 447.82 447.83 447.83 447.83 447.55
DO NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THIS SHEET

Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19

62441 68484 70522 82675

217 228 207 221

5860 6712 7286 9902
34406 37659 38893 45315
4450 4594 4594 5561
429 687 720 1506
3120 3050 3311 2882
1459 1703 1863 2011

18740 19951 20270 21041

5251 5598 4241 5631
13489 14353 16029 15404
5548.4 5891.6 9465.6 9331

Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19

19128 20609 21400 21539
14425 15252 16441 16390
726 739 753 665
436 463 580 531

4993 5633 5132 5283

1381 1523 1522 1205
3612 4110 3609 4074
4703 5357 4959 5149

Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19

 1144 1144 1088 2170
60600 67838 63835 62778

13606 15047 14967 19790

75350 84029 79890 84738
13386 14179 12574 15710
960 1365 1606 1388
1892 16423 12163 11261
59112 52062 53547 56379
75350 84029 79890 84738
11330 12322 13142 14827

32697 22625 19818 19568

2.286E+09 2285655150 2173312301 4335954462
1.148E+09 2184191490
5 5 5 5

Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19

10028 11531 13218 14841
-885 -14664 4533 -632
-6813 -6939 -20505 -14512
2330 -10072 -2754 -303

605.37737 475.226316 574.140476 747.115385

446.98 446.98 435.75 433.60

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