Now it’s time to guestimate.

No project estimate can be exactly known upfront but by using

the following estimation algorithm, you can get a reasonably close first cut.

 Step 1: Determine the number of web pages, screens, database tables, interfaces and
conversions required for each use case. Not all items will be in every use case.
Consider one and a half man-weeks per page or screen, three man-weeks for each
interface, one man-week for database tables, and one-man-week for converted data.
Estimating man-weeks is more accurate by the number of objects created but we don’t
have that data yet.

 Step 2: Estimate coding and unit testing for each use case. Using the estimates from
step 1, you can easily calculate a base estimate for multiple use cases. For example,
for a series of use cases that contains four web pages, two interfaces, five database
tables and no data conversions, the estimate looks like this:
o (4 x 1.5) + (2 x 3) + (5 x 1) + (0 x 1) = 17 man-weeks or 680 hours.

 Step 3: Multiply the result from step 2 by 2.5 so you can account for analysis and
testing of each use case. So doing the math, we would now have 1700 hours as a
project estimate.

 Step 4: Add 20% to the estimate for each additional developer more than one. The
base estimate assumes only one developer. By adding more developers, there is an
inherent overhead for communication and coordination between team members. Let’s
say we have 3 developers so we need to inflate the estimate by 40% (two additional
developers). Multiply the base estimate by 40% and add that number to the base
estimate like this:
o 0.4 x 1700 = 680 hours
o 680 + 1700 = 2380 total hours

 Step 5: Take a few minutes to go over the final estimate with the developers to see if
it makes sense and refine as needed before committing the estimate to management.

Conclusion

The estimating process described assumes that your IT team uses a use case-based approach
as part of its project management process. Use cases are generally found to be the best all
around method of beginning the estimating process for Java projects. Subsequent refinement
after the initial estimation using this method should be revisited at key milestone delivery
dates to ensure the estimates are still valid. As with any estimating method, your mileage may
vary. Feel free to experiment with different man-week values and adjust the estimate
accordingly.