Allison Courtney

Mr. Conway

Diverse Learners-3rd Period

28 March 2019

Annotated Bibliography

Amadeo, K. (2019, March 4). Brexit consequences for the U.K., the EU, and the United States.

The Balance.​ Retrieved from https://www.thebalance.com/brexit-consequences-4062999

This article is a comprehensive review of the consequences of Brexit on both the EU and the
U.K., as well as the United States, one of Britain's largest trade allies. This article will be used in
a section of this paper dedicated to Brexit's implications in regards to the United States in order
to make people feel more connected to this issue. Additionally, it gives detailed information
about the consequences of various outcomes of the negotiations: Hard Brexit, Soft Brexit, and
No Deal. This article will be extremely helpful in providing background information of Brexit
negotiations, and further explaining the different economical consequences depending upon
which type of deal is eventually reached. The author provides thorough background information;
however, this article, and the website, is kept up to date with the most recent and accurate facts
and changes. This website will prove to be helpful when new changes and negotiations arise, as
the negotiations of Article 50 are currently in a constant state of limbo, meaning it could prove
challenging to find the latest updates.

Begg, I., & Mushovel, F. (n.d.). The economic impact of Brexit: Jobs, growth, and the public

finance. ​European Institute, London School of Economics.​ Retrieved from https://ww

w.lse.ac.uk/europeanInstitute/LSE-Commission/Hearing-11---The-impact-of-Brexit-on-j

obs-and-economic-growth-sumary.pdf

This article specifically deals with the projected long term economic impacts of ongoing Brexit
negotiations. This article does a really good job of presenting both sides of the argument. It's
important to recognize both sides in order to have a sound, comprehensive argument. For
example, the article states "the range of estimates is large, from a loss of GDP of nearly ten
percentage points (in the least attractive trade and investment scenarios modeled by the Treasury,
NIESR, and the Centre for Economic Performance at LSE) to a gain of four points (Minford, for
Economics for Brexit - a clear outlier)." As well as providing a wide range of research, it breaks
it down further and gives possible reasons for these shifts and differences, adding another layer
of credibility to this source. Additionally, it gives links to many other credible sources. It clearly
lists citations, links, and government agencies used to compile their data, proving it's higher
credibility. The most helpful aspect of this source is the information about jobs and employment
rates. Thus far in researching, there has been slight struggle to come up with concrete evidence
surrounding this topic. It states and supports that the regional distribution of jobs could be
influenced by shifts in the destination of foreign direct investment into the UK, a pattern already
seen following the 2008/9 recession when Wales, Northern Ireland, and the more northerly
English regions lost ground. All of this information and data will be helpful in further focus the
thesis and different sections of this paper. Additionally, this information will be useful in cross
checking other sources to see if they are accurate and/or precise. As these are all predictions
based on data calculations, it is vitally important to determine the validity of this research.

Bloom, N., Bunn, P., Chen, S., Mizen, P., Smietanka, P., & Thwaites, G. (2019, March 13).

Brexit is already affecting UK businesses - Here's how. ​Harvard Business Review​.

Retrieved from https://hbr.org/2019/03/brexit-is-already-affecting-uk-businesses-

heres-how

This economic review predominantly focuses on the uncertainty aspect of ongoing negotiations,
specifically in the business realm. In August of 2016, in response to the question "how much has
the result of the EU-referendum impacted the level of uncertainty affecting your business?"
roughly 36% of CEOs and CFOs cited Brexit as at least one of the top three current sources of
uncertainty. Results since the summer of 2018 indicate an increase in uncertainty arising from
Brexit, as that number jumped up to 54% between November 2018 and January 2019.
Additionally, the graphic displayed about the "expected impact of Brexit on UK Businesses will
be extremely helpful to my research. The graphic shows, quantitatively, that sales and exports
are expected to decreased by roughly 3% each, while unit costs, labor costs, and financing costs
are all expected to increase a significant amount. Additionally, this article touches on reduced
investment and stunted employment growth, something that we have begun to see the
implications of as the negotiation deadline draws nearer and nearer. Furthermore, this article
talks about the possible long-term effects of Brexit, something that has proved difficult to find a
lot of substantial evidence about. The Harvard Business Review conducted their own research
and estimated that Brexit would lower the level of productivity by around 0.5%. Given that the
economy of the U.K. has had low productivity growth in the last decade, roughly 1% in the last
few years, this effect would be worth roughly around half a year of productivity. Finally this
article references what would happen dependent on what kind of deal they reach. If they leave
with no deal, uncertainty may rise again and only add to the costs already experienced. However,
if the U.K. comes to some kind of deal or agreement with the EU, then "some kind of postponed
investment may be realized."

Busch, Berthold; Matthes, Jurgen (2016): Brexit - the economic impact: A meta-analysis, IW

-Report, No. 10/2016, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW), Koln.

This article is a detailed report of the economic consequences and implications of Brexit,
including the current state of their economy, the post-referendum economy, and information
about what happens next. There is detailed information about Great Britain's GDP, currency rate
exchange with other countries, the government's Debt Management Office, and the Bank of
England. This statistical information is vital to this capstone, as the vital question is about the
economic consequences of this referendum. Additionally, it gives detailed information about
Britain's economy ten years prior to the vote, providing valuable data to infer trend lines of their
economy, and will create a more accurate picture of the current implications of the referendum.
Furthermore, it gives detailed data and descriptions about the consequences Brexit will have
about wages across the country. This information will be vital in relating the vote to the working
class citizens, and helps this research in terms of immigration, working visas, and wages,
specifically of those who work menial jobs.

Kierzenkowski, R., Pain, N., Rusticelli, E., & Zwart, S. (April 2016). The economic

consequences of Brexit: A taxing decision. ​OECD​. Retrieved from https://www.oecd-i\lib

rary.org/docserver/5jm0lsvdkf6k-en.pdf?expires=1553732060&id=id&accname=guest&

checksum=E0E953BA8EC9F0421327CE207B9CE80F

This article provides detailed statistical information about the economic implications of Brexit
negotiations. Additionally, this article does an especially good job on explaining why the
benefits of being a member of the European Union vastly outweigh the benefits of being a more
independent society. It states that, "after leaving the EU, the UK would lose unrestricted access
to Single Market, and preferential access to 53 non-EU markets." After this, UK trade would be
governed by World Trade Organization rules, which would most likely lead to higher tariffs for
goods and to other barriers in accessing the Single Market. Additionally, as immigration
accounts for one-half of the UK GDP growth since 2005, "curbs to the free movement of labor
from the EU and more would gradually reduce the incentives for economic migration to the UK
and would be a cost to the economy." These statistics are staggering, and would prove very
helpful in the immigration and Irish backstop section of this paper. Additionally, this source
proves helpful in the introduction of this paper, as it discusses why the UK held the referendum
in the first place, as well as detailing the benefits of the European Union and what exactly the
UK is giving up in revoking their membership.

Mueller, B. (2019, March 13). What is Brexit? A simple guide to why it matters and what

happens next. ​The New York Times.​ Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/

2019/world/europe/what-is-brexit.html​

This article includes frequently updated information about current events, polls, and
Parliamentary votes regarding the condition of Brexit. One of the most helpful pieces of
information included on this article is a breakdown of referendum votes by region of the United
Kingdom. It's interesting to see how the north of the U.K. (Scotland, Northern Ireland, etc.)
predominantly voted to remain, while the South of the U.K. (Britain, England, Wales, etc.) voted
to leave. This demographical difference could be attributed to that areas economic state, trade,
and foreign relations. Additionally, this article presents valuable information on details of
significant Parliamentary votes regarding negotiations since the referendum. It shows the trend
line of votes, as in January, Prime Minister May's deal was rejected by a historic margin of 230
votes; however, when she tried again in March, she fared slightly better, but was still defeats 391
to 242. Most importantly, this article provides information regarding the Irish border and the
Irish backstop. It organizes information chronologically, whilst also linking more articles solely
dedicated to this topic, which will prove extremely helpful with deeper research and writing.

Mui, Y. (2016, June 18). 'Brexit' could send shock waves across U.S. and global economy. ​The

Washington Post.​ Retrieved from https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/ wonk/wp/201

6/06/18/ho w-brexit-could-hurt-america/?utm_term=.b3b660bfafe9

This articles details some information about Great Britain's GDP post referendum; however, its
main focus is Brexit's implications and consequences in regards to the economy and trade of the
United States. The United States exported $56 billion worth of goods to Britain last year, but that
number is dwarfed by the $588 billion in U.S. investment there, in sectors ranging from banking
to manufacturing to real estate. Similarly, Great Britain has invested nearly half a trillion dollars
into the United States and employs more than a million workers here. Additionally, many big
U.S. companies have thrown their weight behind the effort to stay in the union. Ford's U.K.
division sent a letter to its 14,000 employees emphasizing the importance of maintaining stability
and preventing disruptions in trade. Furthermore, Wall Street's biggest banks, including
Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, and Morgan Stanley, have reportedly donated hundreds
of thousands of dollars to Britain Stronger in Europe, the leading campaign to remain. This
information would help in researching the economic impacts Brexit will have on the United
States, as well as encourage American citizens to pay closer attention to foreign policy and
affairs. People have a tendency to disassociate with things that don't pertain to themselves, or
their home country. This mentality of "America First" has severely hindered citizen's ability to
broaden their perspectives. This research would be helpful in the call to action at the end of the
paper.

Pettifor, A. (2019, January 2). The economic consequences of Brexit? ​Prime. ​Retrieved from

http://www.primeeconomics.org/articles/the-economic-consequences-of-brexit

This article is a detailed report of the economic consequences and implications of Brexit,
including the current state of their economy, the post-referendum economy, and information
about what happens next. There is detailed information about Great Britain's GDP, currency rate
exchange with other countries, the government's Debt Management Office, and the Bank of
England. This statistical information is vital to my capstone, as my vital question is about the
economic consequences of this referendum. Additionally, it gives detailed information about
Britain's economy ten years prior to the vote, providing me with valuable data to infer trend lines
of their economy, and have a more accurate picture of the current implications of the
referendum. Furthermore, it gives detailed data and descriptions about the consequences Brexit
will have about wages across the country. This information will be vital in relating the vote to the
working class citizens, and helps my research in terms of immigration, working visas, and
wages, specifically of those who work menial jobs.

Tetlow, G. & Stojanovic, A. (October 2018). Understanding the economic impact of Brexit.

​ etrieved from https://www.instituteforgovernmen t.org.u

Institute for Government. R

k/sites/default/files/publications/2018%20IfG%20%20Brexit%20impact%20%5Bfi

nal%20for%20web%5D.pdf

This comprehensive data analysis is most likely one of the most helpful articles found to date.
Before the research begins, this organization posted a statement that reads: "Most studies
published to date conclude that Brexit will reduce economic growth - although the scale of the
predicted reduction varies widely. This report attempts to make clear the assumptions that
different studies have made, what evidence they have to support them, and why this leads to
diverse conclusions about the possible economic consequences of Brexit for the UK economy."
Their central thesis resembles the essential question, which proves extremely helpful in the
research process. Additionally, they have gathered and compiled data from many different
sources in an attempt to account for the differences, and to find the most accurate data. This data
analysis covers four main topics: How Brexit might affect the economy, how large is the impact
likely to be, how will the impact vary across the UK, and the economic implications of adapting
to a new relationship. This compilation of data would be used to test the validity of all research
thus far, while also providing an expansion of knowledge on topics such as the long term impacts
of Brexit, as well as how it will impact different parts of the UK.

Van Reenen, J. (September 2016). Brexit's long-run effects on the U.K. economy. ​Massachusetts

Institute of Technology.​ Retrieved from https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2

017/02/brexits-long-run-effects-john-van-reenen.pdf

This article provides a comprehensive understanding of the long-term implications of Brexit,

specifically in the realm of trade. Additionally, this article separates the implications of Brexit
into consequences of "soft Brexit" versus "hard Brexit," something many other articles have
failed to include. In the capstone paper, this article will be helpful in helping the reader figure out
the difference between hard and soft Brexit, whilst also learning the implications of each exit
negotiation. Furthermore, this article separates the increase in trade costs between the United
Kingdom and the European Union into three sections: higher tariffs on imports, higher nontariff
barriers to trade, arising from different regulations, border controls, and the like, and the lower
likelihood of the United Kingdom participating in future EU integration efforts, such as the
continued reduction of nontariff barriers. This separation and detailed explanation of each
section will make separating this part of the capstone paper much easier to format and
understand. Additionally, this will make the paper easier for the reader to digest and
comprehend.