Air Pollution & Mortality Rate

Abstract
Air pollution is always a problem for mankind especially when humans started using fire different
purposes like cooking, heating, protection etc. and with the passage of time this problem has worsen so
many researchers started investigating the causes of air pollution and identified various direct and
indirect causes or determinants of air pollution. The effect of air pollution is always an area of interest
for health and environment scientist so they investigated various issues caused by air pollution. Among
the issues identified, the early mortality rate is one of the main issues faced by the human beings and
this issue has increase to alarming level particularly in urban areas and certain cities are more exposed
to it. In this study various factors are identified which has significant relation with the early mortality
rate.

Keywords: Air Pollution; Early Mortality Rate;

Introduction
The problem of air pollution was traced back to the origin of human life. It can be broadly defined as
the introduction of biological materials, particulate matter and chemicals into the atmosphere which can
cause discomfort or harm to humans & all other living organisms, can cause damage to man-made
environment or natural environment. Another classification of air pollution is on the basis of
involvement of humans as fundamental cause. The air pollution caused by humans is termed as
anthropogenic and non-anthropogenic is referred to the air pollution caused by nature through volcanic
eruptions, storms, wildfire etc. With the evolution of human life, the air pollution caused by humans
gained much attention due to the advancement in technology and development of things which made
human life easy but at the same time affecting atmosphere badly.

The origin of man-made air pollution is same as the origin of fire. Since the use of fire and bio-mass as
fuel for fire to cook food and to make houses warm, the humans are exposed to air pollution. The
problem of air pollution was not significant in early years of using fire. Since the discovery of fossil
and extensive use of coal which lead to technological and industrial revolutions. These revolutions
changed the outlook of the world and the lifestyle of humans. On the other hand, these revolutions made
air pollution a significant problem for the mankind. The problem air pollution is increasing at a rapid
rate and humans from all age groups are under constant risk of health issues which are mainly caused
by the air pollution in the atmosphere surrounding the humans. The fatal health risks lead to increase in
the mortality rate. Ever since the increase in the mortality is linked with the air pollution by health
scientists, various studies are conducted to understand the impact and the strength of impact of air
pollution on mortality. This study is also focused on establishing the relation between the mortalities

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and air pollution. The air pollution is determined using various factors which can cause significant air
pollution.

Literature Review
As it is discussed earlier that the problem of air pollution has become significant concern for health
scientist so significant amount of work has been done to understand the impact of air pollution on the
lives of humans. According to WHO (2019) outdoor air pollution is one of the major causes of deaths
all around the world. It is further discovered that the outdoor air pollution is responsible for fatal
diseases such as lung cancer, heart diseases and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (WHO, 2019)
As per statistics gathered by WHO (2019) 29% of all the mortalities in the world are due to lung cancer
caused by the air pollution. About 17% and 24% of all the mortalities are also linked with acute lower
respiratory infection and stroke respectively, which are caused by air pollution. Many other studies were
conducted by various researchers for investigating the relation between air pollution and effects on
human life and environment. Khaniabadi et al., (2018) conducted a study to investigate the causes of
air pollution and its effect on mortality rate in developing countries because developing countries rely
significantly on the burning of fossil fuels for their energy needs. They conducted their study in Iran
and discovered that the concentration of air pollution is high in Iran particularly in the urban areas. They
linked the heart disease and hospitalisation rate with air pollution. They revealed that the air pollution
is directly linked with the increase in number of heart patients and hospital visits. They also discovered
that the pollutants like particulate matter (PM) and sulphur dioxide are the main pollutions which caused
increased premature and increased mortalities.

Ostro (2011) conducted a study to investigate the volume of air pollution and its effect on human lives
in Europe. They found by using multiple regression model that the increase in the level of air pollution
will result in the increase in the mortalities in Europe particularly in developing countries of the Europe
as the developing countries rely greatly on the use of fossil fuel for energy requirements. They used the
time series of 10 years and found in some years the mortality rates were high due to increase in the air
pollution. They also incorporated heart and respiratory diseases which caused mortalities in multiple
regression model. They discovered that the 10 grams/m3 increase in particulate material can increase
the chances of pre-mature mortality by 1%. Their results were consistent with the other similar studies
conducted in the United States. Romieu et al., (2012) conducted the multicity study to investigate the
relation between air pollution and mortalities in different cities of Latin America. They also used time
series data to establish a relation between air pollution and mortality in three different cities of the Latin
America using multiple regression model. They found that the cities with higher rate of particulate
material have higher mortality rates and among the cities under study Mexico has higher mortality rate
due to greater concentration of particulate material in atmosphere.

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Mehta et al., (2008) investigated and discussed the causes of air pollution in the country and they
revealed that the increase in the burning of coal and fossil fuel is directly linked with the increase in the
air pollution in the country. The also emphasised that without understanding the causes of air pollution
it is incomplete to understand the causes of increase in the premature mortalities for which air pollution
is considered as primary cause. Hutton (2011) conducted study and made classification of pollutants
and primary and secondary. It is further explained in the study that the different category of pollutants
has different effects on premature mortalities (Hutton, 2011).

Methodology
The methodology of any study shows how data is gathered, which methods are to be used for analysis
and also provides information about the relevance methods used for the analysis. The current study is
quantitative in nature and analysis of current study is based on collected data through the use of
statistical techniques.

Data
Secondary data refers to a type of data which is gathered by some institution, magazines, journals,
publications by research institutions and official reports of government regularity bodies and
institutions. Due to restrictions imposed by time and expense and travelling expenses, interviews from
different correspondents for this research have not been held. However, the major thrust of this study
will be on secondary data. Secondary can be categorised in two major categories i.e., qualitative data &
quantitative data. The qualitative data is type of data which was gathered by newspapers, magazines
and government reports etc. On the other hand, quantitative data is type of data which is the form of
league tables and official statistics.

Dependent Variable
The dependent variable is the one which is estimated through a model by using statistical
methods. The statistical methods use numerical data for various independent variables which
are expected to have a relation with dependent variable. The dependent variable for this study
is mortality.

Independent Variables
The current study is quantitative in nature and any relationship between the variables is based
on the numerical data represented by the respective variables. The selection of variables is
crucial. Therefore, the selection must be done with care and include those variables which
directly and indirectly are linked either as pollutant or factor effecting air pollution as whole.
The independent variables are those variables who are independent in movement and their
movement gives impact on the dependent variable. The independent variables are mandatory

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in establishing a relationship between various variables. The variables used in this study are
selected from different earlier studies on air pollution and mortality. Research evidences
supported that different authors and researchers used different set of variables for their studies
depending upon the framework of their studies. The list of independent variables are as
follows:

 Population density: PopDensity

 Percentage of Non-White: %NonWhite
 Percentage of White Collar Worker: WC
 HC population potential: HCPot
 Nitrox Oxide: NOx

Dummy Variable
In order to determine the city specific effect on mortality dummy variables are created using
SPSS for six cities.

Model
The model which is tested in this study is as follows:
Y = α + β1X1 + β2X2 + β3X3 + β4X4 + β5X5 + β6X6 + D1X1 + D2X2 + D3X3 + D4X4 + D5X5 + D6X6

Analysis & Discussion

In this section, the analysis of SPSS output of aforementioned model will be performed so that the
realistic relation between the mortality and the factors effecting the mortality can be determined and
discussed. The table population density is a significant variable as its p-value is lower than the level of
significance. The population density has a slight positive impact on mortality which is evident from its
coefficient which shows that the one percent increase in the population density will increase the
mortality rate by 0.09%. The percentage of non-white in any city had greater impact on mortality which
is evident from the coefficient of 4.92 which shows that 1% increase in the percentage of non-white in
the population of any city the mortality rate will increase by 492 percent which is an alarming sign. The
percentage of white collar jobs has negative impact on the mortality rate caused by air pollution which
means that increase in white collar jobs will decrease the mortality rate caused by air pollution and it is
evident from the value of its coefficient which is -2.29 which shows that the 1% increase in the
percentage of white collar jobs in any city will decrease the mortality by 249% which is also an
astonishing fact revealed from this study.

The population potential has a negative impact on the mortality rate which shows that if the population
potential increases then the mortality rate decreases by 9.8% with every 1% increase in the population
potential. The nitrox oxide has positive impact on the mortality rate. The positive impact means that the

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mortality rate will increase due to increase in the nitrox oxide which is evident from the positive value
of the coefficient of nitrox oxide. In order to determine the impact of temperature on the mortality rate,
average temperature of the whole year was taken in the model. The value of temperature coefficient is
-2.39 which shows that the temperature increase will decrease the mortality rate.

The dummy variables which help in understanding the impact of city specific factors on the mortality
rate. The impact of cities is not similar for all; some cities has positive impact on the mortality rate that
the mortality rate will increase if city specific elements are considered in the model but on the other
hand some has negative relation with mortality rate which means that the mortality rate will decrease.
The table below contains the summarised output of regression model tested using SPSS.

Coefficientsa
Standardized
Unstandardized Coefficients Coefficients
Model B Std. Error Beta t Sig.
1 (Constant) 1079.727 57.233 18.865 .000
PopDensity .009 .003 .214 2.679 .010
%NonWhite 5.572 .729 .799 7.641 .000
%WC -2.517 1.000 -.204 -2.517 .015
HCPot -.982 .305 -1.451 -3.220 .002
NOx 1.839 .602 1.370 3.053 .004
Temperature -2.391 .935 -.243 -2.558 .014
City=Akron, OH -19.130 33.777 -.040 -.566 .574
City=Albany-Schenectady- 90.146 34.215 .187 2.635 .011
Troy, NY
City=Allentown, Bethlehem, 56.378 35.055 .117 1.608 .114
PA-NJ
City=Atlanta, GA .542 35.100 .001 .015 .988
City=Baltimore, MD 12.913 35.577 .027 .363 .718
City=Birmingham, AL -65.763 37.299 -.136 -1.763 .084
a. Dependent Variable: Mortality

The table below shows the value of coefficient of determination which gives the information
about the strength of the model.

Model Summaryb
Adjusted R Std. Error of the
Model R R Square Square Estimate
1 .880a .774 .717 33.10332

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 b. Dependent Variable: Mortality

The value of coefficient of determination is 0.717 which shows that the model is moderately
good in estimating the mortality rate in relation with the variables which are mentioned in the
model.
In order to further understand the strength of relation between the dependent variable and
independent variables which is determined using correlation technique is given in the table
below:

Correlations
PopDensity Mortality %NonWhite %WC HCPot NOx Temperature
PopDensity Pearson 1 .265* -.006 .241 .120 .167 -.104
Correlation
Sig. (2-tailed) .040 .966 .064 .360 .203 .431

N 60 60 60 60 60 60 60

Mortality Pearson .265* 1 .644** -.292* -.178 -.078 .080

Correlation
Sig. (2-tailed) .040 .000 .024 .173 .555 .543

N 60 60 60 60 60 60 60

%NonWhite Pearson -.006 .644** 1 -.057 -.026 .019 .582**

Correlation
Sig. (2-tailed) .966 .000 .663 .844 .883 .000

N 60 60 60 60 60 60 60

%WC Pearson .241 -.292* -.057 1 .165 .126 .171

Correlation
Sig. (2-tailed) .064 .024 .663 .208 .336 .193

N 60 60 60 60 60 60 60

HCPot Pearson .120 -.178 -.026 .165 1 .984** .148

Correlation
Sig. (2-tailed) .360 .173 .844 .208 .000 .259
N 60 60 60 60 60 60 60

NOx Pearson .167 -.078 .019 .126 .984** 1 .132

Correlation
Sig. (2-tailed) .203 .555 .883 .336 .000 .316

N 60 60 60 60 60 60 60

Temperatur Pearson -.104 .080 .582** .171 .148 .132 1

e Correlation
Sig. (2-tailed) .431 .543 .000 .193 .259 .316

N 60 60 60 60 60 60 60
*. Correlation is significant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed).

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**. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).

The graphical representation of the regression standardised residuals is given below

The graphical representation of the mortality rates in different cities is mentioned below:

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Conclusion
In this study the impact of various factors is determined which can impact i.e., increase or decrease the
mortality rate. The mortality rate is effected by all of the above mentioned factors as variables because
all factors are proved to be significant. Some of the factors have positive impact on the mortality rate
but some has negative impact so it helps in understanding the relation between these factors and the
mortality rate so that the early mortality rate can be controlled or reduced which will result in the higher
life expectancy. The dummy variables gave the idea of city specific relation with the mortality rate
which means the mortality rate is effected by city specific elements.

This study can help the policy makers in making such policies which are helpful in developing and
implementing the policies which can reduce the early mortality rate and can increase the life expectancy
& wellbeing of the people living in the city. It also helps the policy makers and other watch dogs to
monitor the factors in better way so that they cannot get out of control so that they will start affecting
the mortality rate substantially.

References
Hutton, 2011. A Scorecard for Humanity: Air Pollution, s.l.: Copenhagen Census Center .

Khaniabadi et al., 2018. Mortality and morbidity due to ambient air pollution in Iran, s.l.: Researchgate.

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Mehta, R. &. P. R. &. R. D. &. U. R. &. P. K., 2008. Air Pollution Due to Coal and Mortality, s.l.: Research
Gate.

Ostro, B., 2011. The Effects of Particulate Matter Sources on Daily Mortality: A Case-Crossover Study
of Barcelona, Spain, s.l.: US National Librerary of Medicine, National Institute of Health.

Romieu et al., (., 2012. Effects of air pollution on infant and children respiratory mortality in four large
Latin-American cities, s.l.: Science Direct .

WHO, 2019. World Health Organisation. [Online]

Available at: https://www.who.int/airpollution/ambient/health-impacts/en/
[Accessed 14 April 2019].

Appendix
Coefficientsa
Standardized
Unstandardized Coefficients Coefficients
Model B Std. Error Beta t Sig.
1 (Constant) 1078.648 59.715 18.063 .000
PopDensity .010 .003 .242 2.965 .005
%NonWhite 4.923 .691 .706 7.124 .000
%WC -2.487 1.010 -.201 -2.462 .017
HCPot -.986 .319 -1.458 -3.094 .003
NOx 1.824 .629 1.359 2.898 .005
Temperature -2.309 .976 -.234 -2.366 .022
a. Dependent Variable: Mortality

Descriptive Statistics
Mean Std. Deviation N
Mortality 940.3487 62.21863 60
PopDensity 3876.05 1454.102 60
%NonWhite 11.8700 8.92115 60
%WC 46.4150 5.03142 60
HCPot 37.85 91.978 60
NOx 22.60 46.355 60
Temperature 54.2833 6.31743 60