Period 2 - 4 - Deterministic PDF

Period 2.
Deterministic and
Probabilistic Design
Seismic Hazard Assessment

The purpose of a seismic hazard assessment is to
estimate expected levels of ground shaking (peak or
spectral) at a site of interest
Example: consider an active fault capable of producing

earthquakes
Active Fault:
1
Fault attributes:
• “Active” – motion observed in “recent” time, typically

regulatory driven
• Smallest magnitude of interest, typically 4.0
• Largest possible magnitude: a.k.a. MCE, OBE, SSE,

MPE, etc.; typically regulatory driven, a.k.a. “the big
one”
• Regression coefficients corresponding to recurrence

relationship

Question: How much shaking should we expect to see
at our site due to an earthquake happening along this
active fault?
Site:
Active Fault: 5.0 km
Firm soil
Mw = 4.0 - 7.0 100 depth to
20 km long bedrock
 = 10(3.6-0.9M) 5.0 km from fault
2
Conservatively, we may decide to assume that the
earthquake is “the big one” (MCE, OBE, SSE, etc.) and
that occurs at a point along the fault that is closest to the
site. This approach is called a Deterministic Seismic
Hazard Analysis
Site:
5.0 km
Mw 7.0 event
occurs here
Deterministic Seismic Hazard

Assessment Procedure
1. Identify a seismic source and distance to your site
2. Select a design magnitude (typically big)
3. Select an appropriate attenuation relationship
(NOTE: Steps 1, 2 and 3 may be prescribed by a regulatory agency

with jurisdiction over your project)
4. Calculate the expected level of ground shaking at your site
3
Deterministic Seismic Hazard
Assessment for our Site
Magnitude: Mw = 7.0
Source-Site Distance: R = 5.0 km
Attenuation Relationship: Campbell 1997
Estimated peak horizontal ground acceleration:
Site:
5.0 km
Mw 7.0 event
occurs here
Uncertainty in Seismic
Hazard Assessment
What if the earthquake occurred somewhere else on the fault?
Site:
Earthquake
occurs here
4
Hazard Assessment
What if an earthquake with a smaller magnitude occurred?
Site:
Mw 6.7 Earthquake
occurs here
Hazard Assessment
What if uncertainty in the attenuation relationship affects the

observed level of shaking at our site?
ln(ü)
Mw and R predicts this
(most likely value)
Mw 6.7 Earthquake
Might be here
occurs here
Might be here
5
Probabilistic Seismic
Hazard Assessment
A Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment addresses this

uncertainty:
• All magnitudes and source-site distances are taken into account
• Uncertainty in the attenuation relationship is taken into account
• Large, nearby earthquakes are taken into account
• Multiple potential seismic sources can be combined into a single

hazard assessment
Probabilistic Seismic
Hazard Assessment
The result is a curve of exceedance rate (occurrences per year) for
different acceleration levels that allows for risk-based assessment
in structural design
Expected Exceedance Rate
(occurrences per year)
Target Acceleration
6
How to do a Probabilistic Seismic
Hazard Assessment
1. Select an earthquake and its relevant attributes:
minimum magnitude of interest: Mo

maximum considered magnitude: Mmax
recurrence relationship coefficients: a, b
spatial geometry of fault
appropriate attenuation relationship
Let’s say we want to know how frequently we should expect a target

acceleration of 0.1 g to be exceeded at our site by this fault . . . .

Hazard Assessment
2. Develop a histogram showing the distribution of source-site
distance
Fraction of Occurrence
0.498 + 0.265 + 0.237 = 1.000

0.498
For our site:
0.265
0.237
5.00
Source-Site
11.18
9.12
5.00
7.06
Distance, R
(km)
7
Hazard Assessment
3. Use recurrence relationship to develop a histogram showing
the distribution of magnitude from Mo to Mmax
For our site: For Mo = 4.0, Mo = 10(3.6-0.9(4.0)) = 1.000 eq/yr
M0 = 4.0
Mmax = 7.0 Since magnitude range is bounded at top and
a = 3.6 bottom, use a bounded recurrence relationship:
b = 0.9
10(-b(M-Mo)) - 10(-b(Mmax-Mo))
M = M0
1 - 10(-b(Mmax-Mo))

Hazard Assessment
Mw M (eq./yr) (eq./yr) P(eq. in this interval)

4.0 1.000
0.876 87.6% (4.0-5.0)
5.0 0.124
0.110 11.0% (5.0-6.0)
6.0 0.014
0.014 1.4% (6.0-7.0)
7.0 0.000
8
Hazard Assessment
Fraction of Occurrence
0.876
0.876 + 0.110 + 0.014 = 1.000
0.110
0.014
Magnitude, Mw
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0

Hazard Assessment
4. Use the attenuation relationship to calculate the most likely
acceleration for each combination of source-site distance and
magnitude
R = 5.00-7.06 km R = 5.00-7.06 km R = 5.00-7.06 km

(avg. = 6.03 km) (avg. = 8.09 km) (avg. = 10.15 km)
Mw = 4.0-5.0 AH = 0.142 g AH = 0.096 g AH = 0.070 g

(avg. = 4.5) (ln(AH ) = -1.95) (ln(AH ) = -2.35) (ln(AH ) = -2.67)
Mw = 5.0-6.0 AH = 0.274 g AH = 0.202 g AH = 0.154 g

Mw = 6.0-7.0 AH = 0.409 g AH = 0.339 g AH = 0.283 g

9
Hazard Assessment
5. Use the attenuation relationship to calculate standard
deviation of the natural log of the acceleration for each value
from Step 4
R = 5.00-7.06 km R = 5.00-7.06 km R = 5.00-7.06 km

Mw = 4.0-5.0
(avg. = 4.5)
ln(AH) = 0.45 ln(AH) = 0.50 ln(AH) = 0.55
Mw = 5.0-6.0
(avg. = 5.5)
ln(AH) = 0.39 ln(AH) = 0.40 ln(AH) = 0.44
Mw = 6.0-7.0
(avg. = 6.5)
ln(AH) = 0.39 ln(AH) = 0.39 ln(AH) = 0.39

Hazard Assessment
Information from Steps 4 and 5 provide the most likely acceleration
and standard deviation for each combination of magnitude and
source-site distance.
Standard Deviation (from Step 5)

defines the shape of the
distribution curve
Most Likely Value
(from Step 4)
ln(ü)
10
Hazard Assessment
6. For the given distribution curve and most likely value, use a
probability distribution table to find the probability that the target
acceleration is exceeded
P(ü > ütarget) = shaded area
Target Acceleration, ütarget ln(ü)

(0.1 g)

Hazard Assessment
7. Calculate the probability that the acceleration caused by each
combination of magnitude and source-site distance exceeds
the target acceleration of 0.1 g.
R = 5.00-7.06 km R = 5.00-7.06 km R = 5.00-7.06 km

Mw = 4.0-5.0 P(ü > 0.1 g) = P(ü > 0.1 g) P(ü > 0.1 g) =
(avg. = 4.5) 0.786 = 0.466 0.251
Mw = 5.0-6.0 P(ü > 0.1 g) = P(ü > 0.1 g) P(ü > 0.1 g) =
(avg. = 5.5) 0.950 = 0.961 0.839
Mw = 6.0-7.0 P(ü > 0.1 g) = P(ü > 0.1 g) P(ü > 0.1 g) =
(avg. = 6.5) 1.000 = 0.999 0.996
11
Hazard Assessment
Remembering that we expect Mo = 1.000 eq/yr, we can now calculate
rate that our target acceleration will be exceeded for each combination of
magnitude and source-site distance
Example: For the combination of Mw = 4.0-5.0 and R = 5.00-7.06 km, the

rate that our target acceleration will be exceeded is:
Mo * P(4.0 < Mw < 5.0) * P(5.00 km < R < 7.06 km) * P(ü > 0.1 g)
= 1.000 eq/yr (0.876)(0.498)(0.786)
= 0.343 occurrences/year
The target acceleration of 0.1 g will be exceeded 0.343 times per

year with this combination of magnitude and source-site distance
Repeat this calculation for all combinations of magnitude and

source site distance….

Hazard Assessment
8. Calculate number of times per year that the target acceleration
will be exceed for each combination of magnitude and source
site distance
R = 5.00-7.06 km R = 5.00-7.06 km R = 5.00-7.06 km

Mw = 4.0-5.0 0.343 0.108 0.053

(avg. = 4.5) events/yr events/yr events/yr
Mw = 5.0-6.0 0.052 0.028 0.022

Mw = 6.0-7.0 0.007 0.004 0.003

12
Hazard Assessment
This distribution of hazard over a range of possible magnitudes and
source-site distances is called a DEAGGREGATION. To get the
overall hazard, we just add up the individual numbers…
R = 5.00-7.06 km R = 5.00-7.06 km R = 5.00-7.06 km

Mw = 4.0-5.0 0.343 0.108 0.053

Mw = 5.0-6.0 0.052 0.028 0.022

Mw = 6.0-7.0 0.007 0.004 0.003


Hazard Assessment
0.343+0.108+0.053+0.052+0.028+0.022+0.007+0.004+0.003
= 0.620 times per year that 0.1 g will be exceeded regardless of
magnitude or source-site distance
R = 5.00-7.06 km R = 5.00-7.06 km R = 5.00-7.06 km

Mw = 4.0-5.0 0.343 0.108 0.053

Mw = 5.0-6.0 0.052 0.028 0.022

Mw = 6.0-7.0 0.007 0.004 0.003

13
Hazard Assessment
All this effort give you one point on

the exceedance curve. Now repeat
the whole process over a range of
target accelerations to define the
entire exceedance curve…

0.62
0.1 g Target Acceleration

Hazard Assessment
This is the exceedance curve for

one potential seismic source.
Repeat the analysis for additional
seismic sources…
0.62
0.1 g Target Acceleration
14
Hazard Assessment
Add the contributions from each
source to obtain a total exceedance
curve that includes all potential
sources of seismicity
TOTAL HAZARD
Source 3
Source 2
Source 1
Target Acceleration
Exceedance Rate, Return Period,

Probability of Exceedance
and Exposure Period
The reciprocal of exceedance rate () is equal to Return
Period, RP
Example: If exceedance rate  = 0.00040404 occurrences/yr,

then RP is equal to 1/ = 2,475 years/occurrence
15
and Exposure Period

and Exposure Period
2% PE during a 50-year exposure period == 2,475-year return

period (i.e. The MCE level of ground shaking in the IBC)
10% PE during a 50-year exposure period == 475-year return

period (used for design-level shaking in some places)
16
USGS Database of Probabilistic
Seismic Hazard Assessment Data
Probabilistic seismic hazard assessments are a lot of
effort . Fortunately, the USGS has done this for the
entire United States…
USGS Unified Hazard Tool:
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/hazards/interactive/
1Petersen, M. D., Moschetti, M. P., Powers, P. M., Mueller, C. S., Haller, K. M., Frankel, A. D., Zeng, Y.,
Rezaeian, S., Harmsen, S. C., Boyd, O. S., Field, N., Chen, R., Rukstales,. K. H., Luco, N., Wheeler, R. L., Williams, R. A.
and Olsen, A. H., 2014, “Documentation for the 2014 Update of the United States, National Seismic Hazard Maps,”
Open File Report 2014-1091, United States Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia.
2Petersen, M. D., Frankel, A. D., Harmsen, S. C., Mueller, C. S., Haller, K. M., Wheeler, R. L., Wesson, R. L., Zeng, Y., Boyd,
O. S., Perkins, D. M., Luco, N., Field, E. H., Willis, C. J. and Rukstales,. K. H., 2008, “Documentation for the 2008 Update
of the United States, National Seismic Hazard Maps,” Open File Report 2008-1128, United States Geological Survey,
Reston, Virginia.
17

Period 2 - 4 - Deterministic PDF

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Period 2.

Seismic Hazard Assessment

Example: consider an active fault capable of producing

• “Active” – motion observed in “recent” time, typically

• Smallest magnitude of interest, typically 4.0

• Largest possible magnitude: a.k.a. MCE, OBE, SSE,

• Regression coefficients corresponding to recurrence

Seismic Hazard Assessment

Deterministic Seismic Hazard

1. Identify a seismic source and distance to your site

2. Select a design magnitude (typically big)

3. Select an appropriate attenuation relationship

(NOTE: Steps 1, 2 and 3 may be prescribed by a regulatory agency

4. Calculate the expected level of ground shaking at your site

What if the earthquake occurred somewhere else on the fault?

What if an earthquake with a smaller magnitude occurred?

What if uncertainty in the attenuation relationship affects the

A Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment addresses this

• All magnitudes and source-site distances are taken into account

• Uncertainty in the attenuation relationship is taken into account

• Large, nearby earthquakes are taken into account

• Multiple potential seismic sources can be combined into a single

minimum magnitude of interest: Mo

Let’s say we want to know how frequently we should expect a target

How to do a Probabilistic Seismic

0.498 + 0.265 + 0.237 = 1.000

For our site: For Mo = 4.0, Mo = 10(3.6-0.9(4.0)) = 1.000 eq/yr

How to do a Probabilistic Seismic

Mw M (eq./yr) (eq./yr) P(eq. in this interval)

How to do a Probabilistic Seismic

R = 5.00-7.06 km R = 5.00-7.06 km R = 5.00-7.06 km

Mw = 4.0-5.0 AH = 0.142 g AH = 0.096 g AH = 0.070 g

Mw = 5.0-6.0 AH = 0.274 g AH = 0.202 g AH = 0.154 g

Mw = 6.0-7.0 AH = 0.409 g AH = 0.339 g AH = 0.283 g

R = 5.00-7.06 km R = 5.00-7.06 km R = 5.00-7.06 km

How to do a Probabilistic Seismic

Standard Deviation (from Step 5)

P(ü > ütarget) = shaded area

Target Acceleration, ütarget ln(ü)

How to do a Probabilistic Seismic

R = 5.00-7.06 km R = 5.00-7.06 km R = 5.00-7.06 km

Example: For the combination of Mw = 4.0-5.0 and R = 5.00-7.06 km, the

The target acceleration of 0.1 g will be exceeded 0.343 times per

Repeat this calculation for all combinations of magnitude and

How to do a Probabilistic Seismic

R = 5.00-7.06 km R = 5.00-7.06 km R = 5.00-7.06 km

Mw = 4.0-5.0 0.343 0.108 0.053

Mw = 5.0-6.0 0.052 0.028 0.022

Mw = 6.0-7.0 0.007 0.004 0.003

R = 5.00-7.06 km R = 5.00-7.06 km R = 5.00-7.06 km

Mw = 4.0-5.0 0.343 0.108 0.053

Mw = 5.0-6.0 0.052 0.028 0.022

Mw = 6.0-7.0 0.007 0.004 0.003

How to do a Probabilistic Seismic

R = 5.00-7.06 km R = 5.00-7.06 km R = 5.00-7.06 km

Mw = 4.0-5.0 0.343 0.108 0.053

Mw = 5.0-6.0 0.052 0.028 0.022

Mw = 6.0-7.0 0.007 0.004 0.003

All this effort give you one point on

entire exceedance curve…

0.1 g Target Acceleration

How to do a Probabilistic Seismic

This is the exceedance curve for