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of the JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES.
 HAIL:
A REVIEW OF HAIL SCIENCE AND
HAIL SUPPRESSION
 METEOROLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS

VOLUME 16 DECEMBER 1977 NUMBER 38

HAIL:
A REVIEW OF HAIL SCIENCE AND
HAIL SUPPRESSION
by
Stewart W. Borland, K. A.. Browning, Stanley A. Changnon, Jr., William A. Cooper,
Edwin F. Danielsen, A. S. Dennis, Bruno Federer, John A. Flueck, G. Brant Foote,
Guy G. Goyer, W. F. Hitschfeld, A. R. Jameson, Roland List, W. C. Macklin,
John D. Marwitz, J. B. Maxwell, J. A. McGinley, Paul W. Mielke, Jr., R. C. Miller,
Griffith M. Morgan, Jr., T. R. Nicholas, Harold D. Orville, J. H. Renick, R. C. Srivastava,
Gabor Vali, Donald L. Veal, Kenneth C. Young

Edited by

G. Brant Foote and Charles A. Knight

A Memorial Volume Dedicated to

Frank Henry Ludlam

Published by the American Meteorological Society

45 Beacon St., Boston, Mass. 02108
Copyright © 1977 by the American Meteorological Society

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be repro-

duced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any
form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying,
recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission
of the publisher.

American Meteorological Society

45 Beacon Street, Boston, Mass. 02108
ISBN 978-1-935704-30-0 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-1-935704-30-0
 TABLE OF CONTENTS
Preface
-G. B. FooTE AND C. A. KNIGHT

In Memory of Frank Henry Ludlam

-K. A. BROWNING
PART I: HAIL PHYSICS
The Structure and Mechanisms of Hailstorms
-K. A. BROWNING 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

ABSTRACT ................................................................... .
1. Classification of hailstorms .................................................... .
a. A primary classification .................................................... .
b. A secondary classification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
c. The concept of the steady-state supercell . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
d. Environmental factors responsible for different storm types . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
2. Visual appearance of hail clouds . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
a. Daughter clouds and feeder clouds . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
b. Large cloud domes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
c. Large anvil plumes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
d. The form of the cloud base . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
3. Radar structure of hailstorms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
a. The radar vault and weak-echo regions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
b. Radar structure of ordinary multicell storms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
c. Radar structure of supercell storms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
4. Airflow in and near hailstorms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I0
a. Location of the updraft . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . IO
b. Inflow toward the updraft . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . II
c. Vertical velocity in the updraft . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I3
d. Tilt of the updraft . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I5
e. Dimensions of the updraft . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I7
f Turbulence and mixing in the updraft . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I8
g. The updraft as an obstacle to environmental flow.............................. I9
h. Rotation within the updraft . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I9
i. Some properties of the downdraft . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
5. Nature and distribution of the precipitation within hailstorms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2I
a. General features . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2I
b. Particle size distributions aloft . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
c. The accumulation zone: fact or fiction? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
6. A model of the airflow and hail growth in an ordinary multicell storm . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
a. Airflow and storm structure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
b. Hail growth and trajectories . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
7. A model of the airflow and hail growth in a unicellular supercell storm . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
a. Airflow and storm structure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
b. Hail growth and trajectories . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
8. Some important concepts related to hail growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
a. Precipitation efficiency and depletion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
b. Beneficial competition and unfair competition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
c. Recycling of precipitation and some further thoughts on hailstorm classification:
vaulted and unvaulted supercells . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36

Vll
9. Recommendations for further research .......................................... . 38
REFERENCES ................................................................ . 39

Response to "The Structure and Mechanisms of Hailstorms"

-G. BRANT FooTE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
1. General remarks ............................................................. . 45
2. Confidence in the models ...................................................... . 45
3. Hail embryos ................................................................ . 45
4. Storm types ................................................................. . 46
5. Conclusions ................................................................. . 47
REFERENCES ................................................................ . 47

A Review of Hailstone-Hailstorm Numerical Simulations

-HAROLD D. ORVILLE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
ABSTRACT ................................................................... . 49
1. Introduction ................................................................. . 49
2. Wet and dry growth and spongy growth of hailstones ............................. . 50
3. Background studies-uncoupled microphysics-dynamics models .................... . 50
a. Steady-state flow models ................................................... . 50
b. Time-dependent flow models ............................................... . 52
4. Coupled microphysics-dynamics studies ......................................... . 52
a. Steady-state, single parcel flow models ...................................... . 52
b. Fully interacting, time-dependent models .................................... . 53
5. A summary of primary results ................................................. . 55
6. Problems and prospects ....................................................... . 56
a. Numerical problems ....................................................... . 56
b. Dynamic problems ........................................................ . 57
c. Microphysical problems .................................................... . 58
d. Prospects 60
REFERENCES ................................................................ . 60

Response to ''A Review of Hailstone-Hailstorm Numerical Simulations''

-GRIFFITH M. MORGAN, JR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
REFERENCES ................................................................ . 64

The Characteristics of Natural Hailstones and Their Interpretation

-W. c. MACKLIN . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
ABSTRACT ................................................................... . 65
1. Introduction ................................................................. . 65
2. Theory ...................................................................... . 65
a. The growth equations ..................................................... . 65
b. The heat balance equation ................................................. . 66
3. Characteristics of hailstones ................................................... . 67
a. Shape and size ........................................................... . 67
b. Embryos ................................................................. . 68
c. Layer structure 70

viii
 d. Lobe structure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
e. Isotopic composition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
f Particulate content . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
4. Aerodynamic behavior . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
5. The growth parameters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
a. Density . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
b. Collection efficiency . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
c. The drag coefficient . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
d. Heat transfer coefficient . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
6. Methods of analysis ............... _. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
a. Isotopic composition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
b. Crystal structure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78
c. Air bubble structure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80
7. Interpretation of hailstone structure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82
8. Concluding remarks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86
REFERENCES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86

Response to "The Characteristics of Natural Hailstones and Their Interpretation":

Laboratory Hail Research-A Critical Assessment
-ROLAND LIST . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
2. The interpretation of hailstone interpretation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
3. Microphysical-dynamic feedback in hail modelling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90
4. The rain-hail connection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90
5. Final comments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91
REFERENCES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91

Freezing Nucleus Content of Hail and Rain in NE Colorado

-GABOR V ALI . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93
ABSTRACT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93
1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93
2. Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94
a. Observational site . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94
b. Sample collection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94
c. Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95
3. Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96
a. Overview.......................................... ........................ 96
b. Nucleus spectra . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98
c. Rain-rate dependence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98
d. Hail-rain comparisons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99
e. Hailstone analysis............................................ .............. 100
f Altitude dependence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101
g. Sizes of nuclei . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102
h. Particulate content . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102
4. Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103

REFERENCES •••••••••••••• 0 •••• 0 •••••••• 0 0 0 •••••••••••••• 0 0 •••••••••• 0 •••• 0. 0 104

lX
The Climatology of Hail in North America
-STANLEY A. CHANGNON, JR. . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107
ABSTRACT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107
1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107
2. History of hail research . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107
3. Data......................................................................... 108
a. Weather Service data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109
b. Hail insurance data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109
c. Special mesonetwork data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109
4. National scale studies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110
a. Spatial findings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110
b. Temporal findings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113
5. Regional-scale studies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114
a. Regions of study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114
b. Spatial findings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114
c. Temporalfindings .......................................................... 115
d. Hail and associated weather . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117
e. Economic aspects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117
6. Small-area studies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118
a. Spatial findings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119
b. Temporal findings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123
c. Hail and other conditions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124
7. Summary and recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125
REFERENCES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126

Response to "The Climatology of Hail in North America"

-GuY G. GoYER . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129
1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129
2. Fine-scale structure of hailswaths . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129
3. The significance of hailcores . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132
4. Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132
REFERENCES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133

Inherent Difficulties in Hail Probability Prediction

-EDWIN F. DANIELSEN . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135
ABSTRACT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135
1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135
2. Some necessary and sufficient conditions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135
3. Possible microphysical-dynamical feedbacks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137
4. Limitations of prediction models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138
5. Conclusions drawn from more general models..................................... 140
REFERENCES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142

Forecasting Hailfall in Alberta

-J. H. RENICK AND J. B. MAXWELL 145
ABSTRACT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145
1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145
2. Hail forecasting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145

X
 3. Forecasting procedures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148
4. Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150
REFERENCES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151

Response to "Inherent Difficulties in Hail Probability Prediction"

and "Forecasting Hailfall in Alberta"
-R. C. MILLER AND J. A. McGINLEY . . . . . . . . . . . . ................ ...... 153

REFERENCES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154

PART II: HAIL SUPPRESSION

Hail Suppression: Progress in Assessing Its Costs and Benefits
-STEWART W. BORLAND.......................................... .... 155

ABSTRACT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155
1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155
2. Early work (1942-1969) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156
3. Estimation of direct benefits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I 59
a. Using insurance data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159
b. The land-value approach.......................................... .......... 160
c. Crop damage function studies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161
d. Reduction of property damage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163
4. Program costs, scale and structure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163
5. Secondary and indirect effects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165
a. Ecological impacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165
b. Regional economic shifts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166
c. Extra-area influences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167
6. Social impacts and responses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 168
7. Legal and institutional adjustments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 170
8. Current work . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 172
a. The contemporary approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 172
b. Studies underway and planned . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 172
9. Unexplored issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173
REFERENCES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 174

Response to "Hail Suppression: Progress in Assessing Its Costs and Benefits"

-STANLEY A. CHANGNON, JR. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ........... 177

1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177
2. Review of key issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177
3. Minor problems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 178
4. Important unknowns and unexplored issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 178
REFERENCES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179

Hail Suppression Concepts and Seeding Methods

-A. s. DENNIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .............. ....................... 181

ABSTRACT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181
1. Conceptual models of hail suppression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181
2. Seeding methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181
a. Broadcast seeding . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 182
b. Updraft seeding . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 182
xi
 c. Direct injection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 182
d. Comparison of methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 182
3. Experimental results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 182
a. Broadcast seeding . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183
b. Updraft seeding . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183
c. Direct injection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 184
d. Dynamic effects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 184
e. Summary......................................... ......................... 185
4. Attempts to model hail suppression processes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185
a. Rationale for modeling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185
b. Modeling of nucleation processes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185
c. Models of cloud glaciation concept . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185
d. Competing embryo concept . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 186
e. Implications for field projects............................................ .... 189
5. Summary and conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189
REFERENCES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190

Response to "Hail Suppression Concepts and Seeding Methods"

- w. F. HITSCHFELD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . 193

A Numerical Examination of Some Hail Suppression Concepts

-KENNETH C. YOUNG . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195
ABSTRACT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195
1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195
2. A conceptual model of hail formation and growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195
3. The glaciation concept . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 196
a. Discussion of the model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197
b. Evaluation of the glaciation concept . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197
c. Summary of the glaciation concept . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199
4. The beneficial competition concept.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199
a. Modification of the hail embryo spectrum..................................... 200
b. Competition in the hail growth zone . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 203
c. Discussion of the beneficial competition concept . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 207
5. The trajectory lowering concept . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 208
a. Discussion of the model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209
b. Growth of the seed embryos . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209
c. Depletion of liquid water by the seed embryos................................. 209
d. Summary of the trajectory lowering concept . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 210
6. Summary of the concepts........................................... ............ 212
a. The glaciation concept . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 212
b. The beneficial competition concept. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 212
c. The trajectory lowering concept . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 212
7. Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213
REFERENCES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 214

xii
 Methods and Results of Hail Suppression in Europe and in the USSR
-BRUNO FEDERER.................................................... 215
ABSTRACT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 215
1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 215
2. Italy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 215
3. France . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 216
4. Yugoslavia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 218
5. Swiss randomized hail suppression experiment-Grossversuch IV . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 219
6. Soviet Union . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 221
a. Seeding criteria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 221
b. Safety of the rockets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 222
c. Evaluation of the results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 222
REFERENCES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 223

Design and Evaluation of Hail Suppression Experiments

-JOHN A. FLUECK AND PAUL w. MIELKE, JR. 225
ABSTRACT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 225
1. Prologue . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 225
2. What to do in the meantime . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 226
a. Working models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 226
b. Variables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 227
c. Treatment design . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 227
d. Data management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 230
3. What to do between time . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231
a. Exploration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 232
b. Confirmation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 233
4. Epilogue . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 233
REFERENCES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 233

PART III: INSTRUMENTS

Some Aspects of Aircraft Instrumentation for Storm Research
-DoNALD L. VEAL, WILLIAM A. CooPER, GABOR VALI
AND JOHN D. MARWITZ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 237
ABSTRACT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 237
1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 237
2. Aircraft location, velocity and attitude . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 238
a. Observer reports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 238
b. Aircraft velocity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 238
c. Aircraft attitude . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 239
3. Measurement of temperature, pressure and humidity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 239
a. Temperature............................................................... 239
b. Humidity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 240
c. Pressure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 241

xiii
4. Measurement of air motion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 241
a. Vertical velocities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 241
b. Horizontal velocities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 242
5. Measurement of cloud physics parameters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 243
a. Cloud droplet sizes and concentrations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 243
b. Liquid water content . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 246
c. Raindrop sizes and concentrations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 247
d. Ice particle sizes and concentrations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 248
6. Operation of aircraft as effective research platforms in thunderstorm research:
communications, data systems and radar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 251
a. Airborne data systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 252
b. Aircraft communications systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 253
c. Aircraft radar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 253
REFERENCES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 253

A Review of Surface Hail Measurement

- T. R. NICHOLAS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 257
ABSTRACT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 257
1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 257
2. Measurement systems.......................................................... 257
a. Observer reports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 257
b. Hail chase . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 258
c. Hail samplers.............................................................. 258
d. Recording samplers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 258
e. Hail instruments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 258
f. Recording hail instruments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 261
g. Other instruments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 264
3. Remote sensing of hail . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 265
a. Radar reflectivity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 265
b. Infrared radiometry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 265
4. Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 265
REFERENCES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 266

Radar Detection of Hail

-R. c. SRIVASTAVA AND A. R. JAMESON 269
ABSTRACT ...................................................... ; . . . . . . . . . . . . . 269
1. Introduction ................................................................ :. 269
2. Hail detection: single-wavelength reflectivity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 269
3. Hail detection: multi-wavelength reflectivity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 269
4. Hail detection: Eccles-Atlas method . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 270
5. Inverted hail signal patterns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 272
6. Measurement of reflectivity at attenuating wavelengths . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 274
7. Hail detection: polarization methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 275
8. Concluding remarks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 277
REFERENCES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 277

xiv
 Preface
This Monograph has its origin in a symposium, "Hail
and Its Suppression," held in Estes Park, Colorado, in
September 1975, hosted by the National Hail Research
Experiment (NHRE), a division of the National Center
for Atmospheric Research. It is worth recounting here
enough of the history ofNHRE to explain the reason for
holding that symposium. NHRE was organized under
the direction of W. C. Swinbank to conduct research
into hailstorm processes and to test a hail suppression
technique modeled in concept after reportedly success-
ful Soviet efforts. The 1972, 1973 and 1974 field seasons
were the first three of a projected five-year, randomized
hail suppression experiment. After Swinbank's death in
December 1973, David Atlas assumed the directorship
of NHRE, and he persuaded Keith Browning to come
as NHRE's chief scientist from October 1974 to
October 1975.
During the winter of 1974-5 it was decided not to
continue the randomized seeding in 1975, but to pause
and examine the data closely. The idea of the
symposium was to gather hail experts to discuss the
present state of knowledge of hailstorms and hail
suppression, and to help decide the best course for
NHRE to take.
The symposium was planned in two parts: a series of
formal presentations followed by a number of discus-
sion groups aimed at recommending how (or whether)
to continue the various aspects of the hail suppression
work. The reports of those working groups have been
made available.' From the start Atlas and Browning
planned that the formal presentations at the symposium
should evolve into an AMS Monograph. The job of
carrying it through has been taken up by the present
editors.
The subject matter treated in this volume ranges from
storm mechanisms and numerical modeling, through
hail climatology and hail prediction, to the economic
aspects of hail and hail suppression, and the current
suppression concepts and methods of evaluating
seeding programs. It may be stretching the word
"monograph" to apply it to a work dealing with such a
wide variety of topics. However, the ability to make
intelligent decisions about the future course of hail
research and the application of the existing suppression
technology requires a familiarity with these subjects. It
therefore seems justified to treat them together.
The subjects of hail and hail suppression are not only
interdisciplinary, they are also controversial. Many
'NHRE, 1975: Working group reports, Symposium/Workshop on
Hail and Its Suppression. NHRE Tech. Rep. 75/2, NCAR, 130 pp.
XV
aspects are in a rapid state of evolution as new
knowledge and insights become available. Thus, it was
felt that a series of review papers alone would not truly
communicate the present state of knowledge. A
reviewer almost necessarily adopts a positive attitude,
emphasizing what science has learned in his area of
specialization, and presenting hypotheses in a positive
manner. Negative messages tend to be uninteresting,
and can rarely serve as unifying themes. Yet, part of a
balanced view of any field of endeavor is a sense not
only of what is known and understood, but also of what
is not, and of the many degrees of reliability of the
hypotheses that lie in between. For this reason we have
included along with most of the review papers a short
response paper. We attempted to find responders who
would give additional perspective to the reviews,
perhaps by supporting them from a different viewpoint
or reinterpreting for the reader what has been
presented, but more often by airing disagreements and
providing alternative interpretations. It will be noted
that in some cases the scientific opinions of reviewer
and responder are almost totally opposite; there has
been no editorial attempt to resolve (of necessity
artificially) the issue or soften the disagreement. The
attempt is to define the current state of knowledge,
regardless of its state of array or disarray.
In trying to limit the scope of this Monograph to a
sensible, coherent whole, the decision was to try to be
complete, in a review sense, on matters relating directly
to hail science, but not to strive for completeness on hail
suppression. All shades of opinion exist about hail
suppression, and we have limited this material some-
what arbitrarily. The reader will find herein neither a
complete review ofthe world's hail suppression efforts
nor a comprehensive treatment of the different opinions
on hail suppression.
Despite their obvious relevance to hail and hail
suppression, two subjects have been largely omitted
from this Monograph. Regarding ice nucleation, the
problems and controversies are too broad and funda-
mental at present to permit a comprehensive review
treatment in a reasonable space here. By omitting ice
nucleation from this Monograph as a review topic, we
do not mean to minimize its importance. Rather, it is so
important, particularly for hail suppression, that it
should be the subject of a separate volume when
knowledge of nucleation processes within convective
clouds reaches the appropriate level. The other subject
not included explicitly is turbulence and diffusion
within storms, about which very little is known either
from measurement or theory. This is also a most
important topic, relating to a variety of transport and
mixing problems of which the dispersion of seeding
material in storms is perhaps the most obvious.
Instruments play a very important role in hail
research, and we have therefore included instrument
papers. Too often theorists do not appreciate the limits
of the data and instrumentation experts do not
appreciate the use of the measurements. For instance,
one of the most difficult and even arbitrary meas-
urements is of hail at the ground. In a very real sense,
the instrument used defines what hail is-in terms of
size, hardness, sponginess, and other factors. The fact
that this instrumental definition may sometimes be
inappropriate can be lost between data collection and
interpretation. Airborne measurements in convective
storms are playing an increasingly important role in the
direct verification of physical hypotheses, and the
paper on aircraft instruments is thus particularly
relevant.
The reader is referred to two previous extensive
works on hail: "The hail problem," by F. H. Ludlam
(Nubila, 1, 12-96, 1958) and Severe Local Storms (D.
Atlas, Ed., Meteor. Monogr., No. 27, 247 pp., 1963).
An earlier Monograph (A. J. Chisholm and Marianne
English, Meteor. Monogr., No. 36, 98 pp., 1973) also
presents extensive data, interpretations and modeling
xvi
on hailstorms in Alberta. While fundamental insights
into the hail problem have not changed a great deal in
the last dozen years, we do know much more about
many pieces of the puzzle, and with the advent of
coordinated field projects incorporating multiple Dop-
pler radar and penetrating aircraft, access to specific,
verified answers are in sight.
Frank Ludlam passed away while this monograph
was in preparation. Because of his many contributions
and great interest in the field, as expressed in the
following memorial by K. A. Browning, we are
dedicating this volume to him.
We thank the many scientists who have contributed
to this Monograph and we thank particularly David
Atlas and Keith Browning, who organized the Estes
Park symposium and solicited most of the major papers
presented here.
We also thank Carol Brown and Joan Wilkerson,
who have not only done much of the typing, proof-
reading and retyping of these papers, but who also have
performed a number of the tedious editorial tasks
needed to prepare a volume of this kind.
G. B. Foote
C. A. Knight
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder
 In Memory of Frank Henry Ludlam
Frank Ludlam died on 3 June 1977 at his home near
Ascot in England at the age of 57. His passing
represents a great loss to the meteorological commu-
nity. His contributions to the field of cloud physics are
notable for their breadth but what captured his
imagination more than anything else, both from a
scientific and aesthetic point of view, was the giant
hailstorm. This is the first major state-of-the-art review
of hail since the 1963 American Meteorological Society
Monograph to which Ludlam contributed a memorable
article. That article and his work at the time together
represent a milestone in the development of our
understanding of hail. It therefore seemed fitting,
because of the closeness of the subject to Ludlam's
heart, to dedicate this volume to his memory, even
though it was conceived and the contributions written
long before the need for such a dedication arose.
Ludlam's endeavours ranged from basic studies of
noctilucent cloud, through precipitation of all kinds, to
the large scale circulation; they ranged also from the
advocacy of forward-looking technological proposals
(like the use of digital radar information for short-period
quantitative precipitation forecasting which he was
advocating long before such procedures were in
operational use) to reflective historical surveys (such as
the inaugural lecture on the history of cyclone models
which he gave on becoming Professor of Meteorology
at Imperial College). Throughout he presented his ideas
in a lucid and persuasive style which he made his own.
The same applied whether he was capturing the
imagination of an audience of scientists on the
mechanisms of clouds or entertaining the readers of the
Times Literary Supplement on the meteorological
insight of the poet Shelley. He did not draw rigid
boundaries between history, art and science any more
than he did between the different branches of meteorol-
ogy.
His early work concerned with the nature of cirrus
clouds contributed to the birth of an era in which the
study of clouds was put on a sound scientific footing.
Subsequently, at a time when ice crystal mechanisms
were still thought to be almost the sole cause of rain, he
was foremost in recognizing that showers could
develop by coalescence of cloud droplets, even in
temperate latitudes. But he will be remembered
perhaps most of all for his contributions to the
understanding of hailstorms. As with so much of his
work he approached the hail problem in a gestalt
manner, attempting to build a self-consistent theory
that took account of all scales from the aerosol to the
large-scale dynamics. His first major attempt at such a
synthesis appeared inNubi/a, Volume 1. ··Piece out our
imperfections with your thoughts'' was the quotation
he used there to express his philosophy of using
physical insight to integrate a body of incomplete
xvii
observational evidence. This approach led him to
devise models which, although by no means correct in
all respects, so clearly exposed the physical reasoning
on which they were founded that they stimulated others
to extend and modify them. In this way his studies
were the catalyst that inspired others to make
progress.
The well-known model of a self-propagating convec-
tive storm with which he was associated recognized the
essentially synergetic relationship of the updraft and
downdraft. It was also among the first to incorporate
precipitation particle trajectories in a deterministic
way. This was an important step because the interac-
tion of the water substance and the airflow holds the key
to the establishment of a stable and vigorous updraft-
downdraft couplet. Ludlam maintained, too, that a
proper description of this interaction is the central
problem in the understanding of hailgrowth and in the
search for a viable concept for hail suppression. The
contents of the present monograph amply bear this out.
In his own work Ludlam fought shy oflarge research
facilities and of involvement with powerful computers,
believing that the logistical technicalities on the one
hand and the computational technicalities on the other
tended to obscure the essence of the ideas they were
supposed to illuminate. But he was well aware that
major advances in understanding could not be gained
without them. Indeed he actively encouraged cumulo-
nimbus modelling work and was a strong proponent of
major observational studies, especially those aimed at
improving the understanding of the dynamics of clouds.
He was adamant, however, that sophisticated observa-
tions are of little value unless they can be fitted into a
physically meaningful framework; that a diversity of
observations of a phenomenon (even if some are simple
visual observations) can be more illuminating than
observations, however sophisticated, made by one
technique alone; and that, having formulated an idea, it
runs the risk of lying barren unless it is communicated
in prose or pictures of elegant simplicity.
Ludlam was no ordinary scientist. He possessed an
uncanny intuition that set him apart. To use H.
Butterfield's description in his History of the Scientific
Revolution, he had "the art of handling the same bundle
of data as (others), but placing them in a new system of
relations with one another by giving them a different
framework".
The essence of science, wrote Sir Lawrence Bragg,
"lies not in discovering facts, but in discovering new
ways of thinking about them''. This was also the
essence of Frank Ludlam's philosophy.
K. A. Browning
Meteorological Office Radar Research Laboratory
PART I: HAIL PHYSICS

The Structure and Mechanisms of Hailstorms

K. A. BROWNING 1
National Center for Atmospheric Research, 2 Boulder, Colorado

ABSTRACT

The increasing availability of new observational techniques over the last decade has led to a great deal of
descriptive material on the structure of hailstorms, much of it fragmentary. In this article we review the current
state of knowledge concerning the dynamical and microphysical structure of hailstorms and we attempt to fit it
into a coherent framework which recognizes the existence of different types of hailstorms. A storm classification
system is presented and conceptual models are described which account for the growth of hail in terms of the
known characteristics of hailstorms. The models, which lean heavily on circumstantial evidence and physical
reasoning, will need to be refined or revised in the light of fresh evidence; nevertheless they are considered to
provide a useful basis for focussing on mechanisms of natural hail growth and concepts for suppressing hail.

1. Classification of hailstorms ity, a much more vigorous unit of convection, known as

a. A primary classification
The fundamental building block of hailstorms, as of
all convective storms, is the "cell." A cell in this
context is a dynamical entity characterized by a
compact region of relatively strong vertical air motion
which can be identified by radar from its associated
volume of relatively intense precipitation. Cells defined
by the vertical air motion and radar cells defined by the
precipitation distribution are not quite co-located and
so when using the term cell it is necessary to make it
clear which is being referred to. We shall identify two
kinds of cells-ordinary cells and supercells. As we
show later, the distinction between them may be
important for hail growth.
The majority of convective storms, and indeed many
of those that produce hail, are composed of ordinary
cells. Ordinary cells are short-lived units of convection
and most storms at any given time consist of a
succession of them at different stages of evolution.
Byers and Braham (1949) identified three stages in the
evolution of an ordinary cell: the cumulus stage (with
updraft alone), the mature stage (with updraft and
downdraft together), and the dissipating stage (with
downdraft alone). According to this scheme, the
mature stage of a typical cell lasts only 15-30 min
before giving way to the dissipating stage.
Occasionally, in the presence of a favorable vertical
distribution of temperature, humidity and wind veloc-
1 Present affiliation:
Meteorological Office, Radar Research
Laboratory, RSRE, Malvern, England.
2 This review was conducted as part ofthe National Hail Research
Experiment, managed by the National Center for Atmospheric
Research and sponsored by the Weather Modification Program,
Research Applications Directorate, National Science Foundation.
1
a supercell, will develop. A supercell can sometimes be
recognized by certain characteristic visual and radar
features which are discussed in Sections 2 and 3. How-
ever, we prefer to specify as the essential distinguishing
feature of a supercell a circulation that is not only large
and intense, but also virtually steady-state, with an
updraft and downdraft coexisting symbiotically for a
long period (30 min or more). Some extremely long-
lived examples have been reported. In one, a supercell
persisted for as long as 12 h, dropping hail over a dis-
tance of 535 km (Paul, 1973). We shall say more about
the steadiness of the circulation shortly. With our pres-
ent limited understanding, the judgment as to how
nearly steady it has to be to qualify as a supercell is a
subjective matter. Of course the apparent steadiness of
a storm depends on the resolution of the measurements
but the realization of this should not be allowed to
obscure the fact that there are very real differences in
the degree of steadiness of ordinary cells and super-
cells. From the point of view of hail growth, it may be
that the important factor is whether or not the circula-
tion is steady enough for the establishment of certain
characteristic features of the three-dimensional precipi-
tation structure that are believed to be beneficial to the
growth of large hail. This is discussed more in Sec-
tions 7 and 8, where we show that although a steady
state dynamical organization is favorable to the growth
of large hail, it is not in itself a sufficient condition.
Ordinary cells are to a first approximation closed
systems that tend to drift with the mean winds. A super-
cell, on the other hand, is an open system which travels
(i.e., propagates continuously) with a velocity that
permits it to maintain a continuous circulation. The
direction of travel is usually significantly either to the
right or to the left of the mean tropospheric winds. This
2 PART 1: HAIL PHYSICS
•
PAMPA
0 10 20 JO 40km
FIG. 1. Track and successive hourly positions of radar echo (30 dBZ)
associated with an SR supercell hailstorm on I June 1965. Wind
hodographs for 1800 CST, relative to the ground and relative to the
storm, are shown in the inset. From 1600 to 1830 the storm propagated
continuously to the right of the winds during which time it produced
heavy rain and hail damage. (After Fankhauser, 1971.)
gives rise to the subclassification SR (Severe Right-
moving) supercells (Browning, 1964) and SL (Severe
Left-moving) supercells (e.g., Hammond, 1967). In the
Northern Hemisphere most supercells are SR; in the
Southern Hemisphere the reverse is true. Occasionally,
a storm develops an SR and an SL supercell simultane-
ously, the pair of cells following highly divergent paths
(e.g., Fujita and Grandoso, 1968; Charba and Sasaki,
1971).
What causes the anomalous motion of supercells is
not fully understood. One simple explanation is that
continuous steady-state propagation in the direction of
the mean winds is prevented by the descent of precipita-
tion ahead of the updraft into the inflow region. Water
loading and evaporative cooling lead to the establish-
ment of a downdraft which cuts off the supply of air
feeding the updraft on its forward flank. Thus, the only
steady-state solution is for a supercell to propagate to
one side or the other so as to enable the updraft to be fed
continuously without undue interference from the pre-
cipitation and the associated downdrafts. Another pos-
sible explanation is mentioned in Section 4h.
We wish to avoid giving the impression that there is
always a clear-cut and easily determined distinction
between ordinary cells and supercells; many cells are
clearly one or the other, but not all cells are easy to
classify. Indeed, while we must always strive for
simplicity in classification, it is almost inevitable that a
more detailed classification scheme will evolve as our
understanding of hailstorms increases. One form a
more detailed classification might take is given in Sec-
tion 8c, in which we categorizt> supercells as either
"vaulted" or "unvaulted". This is shown to be a physi-
cally significant distinction.
b. A secondary classification
The nature of a hailstorm is determined by the
number, type and distribution of the cells from which it
is built. Some storms contain essentially only one kind
of cell. Others contain a mixture of ordinary cells and
supercells either simultaneously or at different times.
We recognize three main storm categories:
• Unicellular storms
• Multicell storms (with a cluster of cells, not form-
ing in a distinct line)
• Line storms (containing cells along a line).
A unicellular storm may consist of a single ordinary
cell of short duration or a supercell of long duration.
Unicellular supercell storms are generally referred to
simply as supercell storms (e.g. , Chisholm and Renick,
1972; Marwitz, 1972a; Browning and Foote, 1976). One
of the simplest indications of the development of such a
supercell storm is when the radar echo is seen to make a
distinct turn to the right (or left) without any discrete
new echoes forming on the right (left) flank (see, for
example, Fig. 1).
A multicell storm consists of a number of cells with
successive cells usually forming on the right flank
(viewed along the storm' s direction of travel). This causes
the storm as a whole to propagate toward the right in a
discrete way (Browning, 1962; Marwitz, 1972b; New-
ton and Fankhauser, 1975). Individual cells may be all
ordinary cells of short duration as envisioned by
Chisholm and Renick (1972). Sometimes, however, a
multicell storm consists of a mixture of ordinary cells
and supercells. Indeed, most supercell storms start and
end life as evolving multicell storms.
A line storm, or squall line, consists of laterally
aligned cells which tend not to interfere disruptively
with one another by competing for the same warm moist
air. Individual cells may be all ordinary, a mixture of
ordinary and supercells , or conceivably they may be all
supercells.
This secondary classification is similar to that pro-
posed by Marwitz (1972c). He added a fourth storm
category, however, which he called severely sheared
storms. We have not included this category since it
seems that it is essentially a form of supercell storm or a
succession of supercells that develop in an environment
that is more strongly sheared than usual.
We believe that the most fundamental classification
as far as the hail mechanism is concerned is the primary
one of the ordinary cell versus the supercell rather than
the above secondary classification. The distinction be-
tween supercell, multicell and squall line storms as
applied by Marwitz (1972c) can be misleading in the
sense that both of the latter storm categories may con-
tain a supercell.
c. The concept of the steady-state supercell
Since Browning and Ludlam (1962) put forward the
notion of a steady state cell, there has been a long
K. A. BROWNING 3

controversy about the reality of the steady state hy- 180"

pothesis. As is demonstrated in later sections of this I

paper, the issue is now fairly clear. Whereas a truly
steady state is of course unknown in nature, some indi-
vidual cells unquestionably do propagate continuously
and at a uniform velocity with only minor fluctuations in •
dimensions and intensity over periods long compared
MOTION
with the time taken for air to pass through them. To be
precise, we should refer to this as a quasi-steady state,
but as far as the essential physics is concerned, it is
steady. Such steady cells are the supercells. Ordinary
cells by definition are unsteady. Although there has
been no definitive study to date, there is accumulating
evidence that supercells-whether in unicellular
storms, multicell storms or in line storms-tend to be
responsible for a significant proportion of the big hail b
(and also tornadoes) in the High Plains region of North
America. Thus, the concept of the steady state super-
cell is an important one in any consideration of hail
growth. In other geographical areas the proportion of
supercells may be much lower. 1 o•
It is important to distinguish between storms that are
merely persistent and storm cells that are quasi-steady.
A well-organized multicell storm may be persistent in
the sense that at any given time there is always at least
e
one cell within it that is vigorous and producing hail.
However, such a storm can be propagating discontinu-
ously such that no individual cell may achieve a steady
state circulation. FIG. 2. Typical wind hodographs for (a) single cell storms and
disorganized multicell storms producing only sporadic bursts of hail,
(b) well-organized multicell hailstorms, and (c) supercell hailstorms.
d. Environmental factors responsible for different The supercell hodograph is similar to the multicell case but exhibits
storm types stronger directional shear at low levels. (From Chisholm and Renick,
1972.)
It has long been known that severe hailstorms are
favored by 1) strong convective instability, 2) abundant
moisture at low levels, 3) strong wind shear, usually hodograph for supercdls (2c) does not differ sig-
veering with height, and 4) a dynamical mechanism that nificantly from that for well-organized multicell storms
can release the instability. These general forecasting in regard to the magnitude of vertical wind shear. Thus,
rules have been discussed for example by Newton strong shear by itself, although necessary for a persist-
(1%3). We are more concerned here with the factors ent storm, is not the only factor that determines
determining the type of hailstorm that will develop. whether a steady state supercell will develop (see also
Although the critical factors have yet to be isolated in a Marwitz, 1972a, b).
fully convincing way, a number of useful indicators are The most significant differences in the wind profile
becoming apparent. associated with supercells and ordinary multicell
One important factor is the nature of the vertical wind storms are the amount of directional shear, especially at
shear. Chisholm and Renick (1972) have presented typ- low levels, and the strength of the subcloud winds.
ical wind hodographs for three different kinds of storms According to Marwitz ( 1972a), the mean subcloud en-
(Fig. 2). Two of the hodographs (Figs. 2b and 2c) are vironmental wind associated with supercells is greater
strongly sheared and one of them (2a) is weakly than 10 m s- 1 and its direction is backed by more than
sheared. The weakly sheared hodograph is associated 60 deg with respect to the mean environmental wind.
with short-lived storms consisting of a single ordinary Allowing for the anomalous motion of supercells, the
cell. It is also probably representative of poorly or- inflow velocity relative to the cell may be as great as
ganized multicell storms which fail to produce large or 15-20 m s- 1 in the storm's far environment, increasing
extensive hail. Well-organized multicell hailstorms of to as much as 30-35 m s- 1 close to the updraft (Paul,
the kind that can produce appreciable hail are charac- 1973; Browning and Foote, 1976). This means that the
terized by the strongly sheared hodograph (2b). The inflow can be properly matched to the magnitude of the
4 PART I: HAIL PHYSICS
HEIGHT
(km)
MSL
13
12
II
10
9 the updraft to remain quasi-steady and sometimes
8 rather isolated.
7
5
4 a. Daughter clouds and feeder clouds
3
2 We mentioned in the last section that ordinary
FIG. 3. Temperature and dew-point soundings appropriate to a
supercell hailstorm of moderate intensity in northeast Colorado on 22
July 1972. The dashed and solid curves represent soundings behind
and ahead ofthe storm, respectively; the numbered dots (1, 2 and 3)
show saturation pressure and temperature conditions measured by
aircraft flying in the inflow. The stippled areas denote "positive and
negative areas" with respect to parcel ascent from the surface. The
sounding is not notable for the size of the "positive area" since,
taking the Grover soundings as representative of upper levels, the
level of neutral buoyancy is below 10 km and the maximum
temperature excess is only 3°C. However, the sounding is notable for
the existence of a virtual temperature deficit of 1 to zoe over a deep
layer below cloud base. (After Foote and Fankhauser, 1973.)
buoyant updraft and this helps the the updraft to main-
tain a steady circulation. Ordinary cells occurring in the
absence of a suitable low-level wind pattern may still be
vigorous if the thermal instability is large but they are
unable to attain a steady state because the inflow is
insufficient to sustain the vigorous updrafts that de-
velop in the presence of large buoyancy. These ideas
have been expressed quantitatively by Moncrieff and
Green (1972) in terms of a convective Richardson
number (Ri). They define Ri as the ratio of available
potential energy produced by buoyancy to available
kinetic energy produced by shear. They showed
theoretically that a low value of Ri owing to strong
low-level shear accompanying thermal instability
favors the maintenance of a steady state convective
circulation.
Another factor that appears to be important in deter-
mining the hailstorm type has to do with the thermal
structure of the environment. It is not the thermal insta-
bility aloft that is the critical factor in determining
hailstorm type since, according to Marwitz (1972a, b),
severe hailstorms of all kinds tend to be associated with
a temperature excess at 500mb of 4°C or more. Rather,
the important factor appears to be the magnitude of the
negative buoyancy that develops in the inflow toward
the updraft just below cloud base. As shown in Fig. 3,
negative buoyancy occurs when the low-level air is
stably stratified so that air with the highest equivalent
potential temperature close to the ground has to be
lifted above cloud base before it becomes positively
buoyant. As discussed in Section 4b, the existence of
negative buoyancy is a common feature of High Plains
hailstorms. On occasions of large negative buoyancy it
has the effect of inhibiting premature release of convec-
tive instability in the region of mesoscale convergence
as the inflow approaches the main updraft. This helps
2. Visual appearance of hail clouds
multicell storms are characterized by the successive
formation of discrete new cells, usually on the right
flank. Visually these new cells appear as cumulus
clouds, sometimes arranged in lines, at distances up to
30 km away from the hailstorm core (Fig. 4). They often
develop out of a shallow cumuliform shelf cloud located
on the storm's right flank. They grow rapidly as they
approach the main cumulonimbus cloud mass, and they
merge with it within 10 to 40 min of their formation. A
first radar echo, associated with the development of
precipitation-sized particles, usually appears in the
clouds just before they merge with the main cloud mass
and the merger tends to be followed by a burst of heavy
rain or hail at the ground (Dennis et al., 1970). During
Project Hailswath (Goyer et al., 1966) these developing
clouds became known as feeder clouds. However, this
term is misleading when applied to ordinary multicell
storms in the sense that the clouds do not feed the
mature hail cloud but, rather, they grow and become the
mature hail cloud. Therefore we shall refer to them as
daughter hail clouds or simply daughter clouds. As
DAUGHTER
CLOUDS
FIRST
km ECHO
u; 15
.§
1-
0Ui 10
I
5
0 10 20 30
.-NE DISTANCE km SW-+
FIG. 4. Schematic SW-NE cross section through a typical
eastward-moving multicell hailstorm in South Dakota showing
daughter clouds on the storm' s right flank. Stippled shading
represents cloud; solid contours represent radar reflectivity labeled in
dBZ. (After Dennis et al., 1970.)
K. A. BROWNING 5

15 (o) 15 15
E
~

I-
I 10 10 10
(!)
w
I
5 5 5

0 10 20 30 0 10 20 30
DISTANCE kni DISTANCE km
FIG. 5. Schematic diagrams illustrating the distinction between the visual appearance of (a) on ordinary multicell storm with growing
daughter clouds and (b) a unicellular supercell storm with no discrete daughter clouds. Inflow toward the updraft is from the right in both
cases ; the precipitation falls out on the left.

suggested by Musil (1970) and Renick (1971), and
discussed later in Section 6, these young daughter
clouds are believed to be where the hailstone embryos
form in ordinary multicell storms.
Although daughter clouds are a common feature of
hailstorms in the Great Plains of North America (Musil,
1970) and elsewhere, they are not characteristic of all
hailstorms. Indeed they are conspicuously absent on
the flanks of some large supercell storms (e.g., Marwitz
and Berry, 1971; Browning and Foote, 1976) for which
virtually the entire flux of rising air is funneled into the
single large quasi-steady updraft (Fig. 5). Since some of
the largest hail is produced in such storms, daughter
clouds evidently are not the only places where hail
embryos may grow.
Although, as we have just pointed out, many
supercells are truly isolated, supercells are occasionally
observed to be associated with flanking lines of
developing cumulus clouds which sometimes merge
with and appear to intensify the supercell (Lemon,
1974). Insofar as some of the flanking clouds do indeed
feed rather than remain separate or supercede the
supercell, it seems that it is appropriate to refer to these
as feeder clouds rather than daughter clouds.
b. Large cloud domes
Whereas multicell hailstorms usually display multi-
ple evolving cloud turrets, each turret being typically
3-5 km across, supercells tend to be characterized by a
single very high cloud top resembling a rather smooth
dome (Cunningham, 1960; Roach, 1967) (Figs. 5b and
6). The persistence and rather featureless appearance of

FIG. 6. Photograph of the Fleming supercell hailstorm showing the smoothly-shaped cloud dome
at the top of the storm. (From Browning and Foote, 1976.)
6 PART 1: HAIL PHYSICS
some cloud domes is consistent with the steady state
hypothesis. The large size of the domes (10-15 km
diameter), and the fact that their tops remain near an
altitude predicted by parcel theory, is consistent with
the existence of a broad updraft whose interior
experiences negligible mixing with environmental air
(Roach, 1967).
c. Large anvil plumes
The strong winds in the upper troposphere which are
commonly associated with severe hailstorms often
produce long anvil plumes especially when the storms
are long-lived. The large extent of these plumes is best
seen from satellites (see, for example, Purdom, 1971).
According to Boucher (1967) and Merritt and Smith
(1969), the anvils from clusters of convective clouds
often combine to give broad cirrus shields. They find
that satellite-observed cirrus shields greater than 100
km in diameter are good indicators of damaging storms.
Such large cirrus shields may, by shading the ground,
exert a significant mesoscale damping effect on new
convection. Hitschfeld (1960) talks of the high winds
aloft eroding the updraft and carrying away small
precipitation particles into the anvil. However, in the
case of a long-lasting storm cell, erosion may not be the
best term to use to describe what amounts to a
continuous flow from the updraft into the anvil. Air
tends to diverge horizontally in all directions as it leaves
the summit of the updraft but most of it leaves in the
downshear direction. In the presence of strong wind
shear, any air that initially leaves in the upshear
direction soon adapts to the environmental flow and
then it too streams away within the outer edges of the
anvil plume in the downshear direction.
d. The form of the cloud base
The cloud base associated with the main updraft has a
distinctive visual appearance, especially in severe
hailstorms. Auer and Sand (1966), Aueret al. (1970) and
Browning and Foote (1976) have presented photo-
graphs of such cloud bases. A distinctive feature of the
cloud base is its flat uniform appearance when viewed
from a distance. Away to one side there is usually a
curtain of precipitation. Viewed at close range the cloud
base may have a rippled appearance. Scud cloud is
often noted beneath cloud base in the region of
strongest updraft. When flying in the subcloud region
and approaching a storm that has an organized updraft,
an experienced observer can detect the distinctive
cloud base and/or scud cloud up to 30 km away
(Marwitz et al., 1972). Occasionally, the uniformity of
the cloud base is broken by a local lowering of the base;
sometimes this occurs just prior to development of a
tornado.
In some of the most severe storms, including some
hailstorms, a large portion of the cloud base beneath the
main updraft, although flat in itself, may be situated as
much as a kilometer or more beneath a general and
more ill-defined cloud base occurring on the storm's
right flank. As shown in Fig. 7 this gives rise to a
pedestal-shaped cloud. The pedestal cloud shown here
was associated with the severe Fleming supercell storm
discussed in Section 7 and the photograph was taken
shortly before baseball-size hail started reaching the
ground. The three-dimensional structure of the pedestal
cloud, determined photogrametrically from several
pictures taken from an aircraft flying along side it, is
shown in Fig. 7b, together with its relationship to
features of the radar echo which we discuss later. The
figure draws attention to the enormous area of the
pedestal cloud (200 km 2 at cloud base). An aircraft
flying beneath this pedestal cloud for 50 min encoun-
tered a persistent smooth updraft, with vertical
velocities up to 10-15 m s- 1 near its center. The higher
cloud base surrounding the pedestal cloud was as-
sociated with a shelf cloud containing much weaker
updrafts. The moist air feeding the pedestal cloud
originated within the lowest kilometer; the rather
drier air feeding the shelf cloud originated above the
moist inflow but still from within the lowest few
kilometers. Big differences in cloud base level, as in
Fig. 7, probably arise when a strong and discon-
tinuous stratification of humidity is generated by dif-
ferential advection.
3. Radar structure of hailstorms
a. The radar vault and weak-echo regions
An important concept in the interpretation of radar
echoes from both ordinary multicell and supercell
storms is that of the radar vault or weak-echo region.
Because radar echoes from convective storms are due
to precipitation grown in an updraft, for a long time
meteorologists tended to identify radar echo with
updrafts. However, Browning and Ludlam (1962) and
Browning and Donaldson (1963) observed a region
within severe hailstorms that was devoid of detectable
echo. This "echo-free" region had a characteristic
shape and they called it an echo-free vault. They
interpreted the vault as being due to an updraft so strong
that, although it is filled with cloud particles, precipita-
tion large enough to be detected by radar does not have
time to form within it and precipitation formed
elsewhere is precluded from falling back into a large
part of it. The term vault used in this context should not
be confused with the cloud vaults occasionally referred
to in the literature (e.g. Marwitz, 1972c). Since these
early observations, radar vaults have been observed by
many researchers with much better resolution. Accord-
ing to Dennis (1971), such vaults are quite common in
the more severe storms in South Dakota. According to
Chisholm and Renick (1972), they are common in
K. A. BROWNING 7

FIG. 7a. Photograph of the pedestal cloud in the Fleming hailstorm. The location from which the
picture was taken is indicated in Fig. 7b. (Photograph courtesy of B. B. Phillips.)

Alberta, too. They find that the region within the vault tivities lower than 0 dBZ. Calculations of the rate of
usually has a radar reflectivity less than 20 dBZ, and growth of cloud particles by Chisholm ( 1970) suggest
frequently less than 5 dBZ. Observations by Grandia that vaults may contain cloud droplets with diameters
(1973) and Browning and Foote (1976) indicate reftec- less than 40 ~-tm or graupel particles with diameters less

PHOTO
I fiG 6
TAKEN 35•'"
FAOiol STORM

....
·.
··.
; ··... TOE OF
PEDESTAL
ANGLE OF
VIEW IN
EOGE OF
N SHELF" CLOUD CLOUD PHOTO IN

i (
DETCIIMINED )
,/tOM SN~DDI'
()Ill lilfOVIIQ
fiG 7o

$ ...
. .. . . . . ... . . . .

FIG. 7b. Plan depiction of the two main cloud bases in the Fleming hailstorm shown in relation
to the pattern of radar echo at 3.5 and 5.5 km MSL (thickly and thinly hatched). The extent of
the shelf cloud at 4 km MSL is shown by the dotted curve. The extent of the pedestal cloud
where it entered the base of the shelf cloud is shown heavily stippled. The base of the pedestal
cloud at 2.8 km MSL is outlined by the dashed curve. (After Browning and Foote, 1976.)
8 PART I: HAIL PHYSICS

than 2 mm resulting in reflectivity values between -30
and -5 dBZ which are too weak to be detected by most
weather radars.
Those weak-echo regions in severe storms that are
observed as vaults surrounded by precipitation echo
are referred to by Chisholm (1970) as bounded
weak-echo regions (BWER's). Sometimes the vault is
entirely bounded by precipitation at some levels; at
other times it may be almost but not quite completely
bounded. In this paper we shall continue to use the term
vault for the truly vault-like, bounded or almost-
bounded weak-echo regions, but we shall adopt
Chisholm's term, weak-echo region (WER), for un-
bounded weak-echo regions. As we show later, the
distinction between vaults and ordinary WER's may be
an important one for the growth of hail.
Simultaneous observations by radar, aircraft and
stereophotography (Chisholm and Warner, 1969; Mar-
witz et al., 1969; Chisholm, 1970; Browning and Foote,
1976) have shown conclusively that vaults and WER's
are accompanied by extensive, smooth and uniform
updrafts at cloud base. Radar observations of chaff
within such regions (Marwitz, 1973) have shown that
the updrafts observed at cloud base continue upward
through the full extent of the vault or WER.
b. Radar structure of ordinary multicell storms
Chisholm and Renick (1972) have presented elegant
schematic descriptions of the radar structure of
hailstorms. Their model of an ordinary multicell
hailstorm is reproduced in Fig. 8. (Some multicell
storms contain supercells but here we are restricting
our attention to multicell storms containing only
ordinary evolving cells.) Although variations in be-
havior exist, an intense multicell storm of the kind
depicted in Fig. 8 consists of an organized group of cells
which develop and move in a consistent way. This
model is based on the studies of Alberta hailstorms;
however, it is believed to be a good representation of
well-organized ordinary multicell storms in general.
According to Chisholm and Renick, a typical
multicell storm contains two to four cells at any given
time. New radar cells develop from cloud towers 3 to 5
km in diameter, rising at 10 to 15 m s- 1 (Renick, 1966,

...e
..,

-..
IJ_ _I}] Ji[J) ii521
e
~

...
Q
"~ (!J
6 - 40 (

oc
@>

:r: 0
0 3 6 9 15 21

ELAPSED TIME (min)

FIG. 8. Schematic horizontal and vertical radar sections for an ordinary multicell storm at various stages during its evolution showing
reflectivity contours at 10dBZ intervals. Horizontal sections are illustrated forfour altitudes (3, 6, 9 and 12 km AGL) at six different times.
The arrow superimposed on each section depicts the direction of cell motion and is also a geographical reference line for the vertical
sections at the bottom of the figure. Cell 3 is shaded to emphasize the history of an individual cell. (From Chisholm and Renick, 1972.)
K. A. BROWNING 9

15

•
:=.10

-
%
I)

t 5
c
IHm
c
0 10 20 ••

I FIG. 9b. Schematic vertical section through a unicellular supercell

storm in the plane of storm motion (along CD in Fig. 9a). Note the

\
reflectivity maximum, referred to elsewhere as the hail cascade,
which is situated on the (left) rear flank of the vault (or BWER, as it is
labeled here). The overhanging region of echo bounding the other side
PlUME of the vault is referred to elsewhere (Sec. 7) as the embryo curtain,

I
where it is shown to be due to millimetric sized particles some of
IOkm which are recycled across the main updraft to grow into large
hailstones. (From Chisholm and Renick, 1972.)

radar for 20 to 30 min. A total of 30 or more cells may

develop during a typical storm's lifetime.
The evolution of the vertical structure of one of the
cells (cell 3) is depicted at the foot of Fig. 8. The first
echo appears in the upper troposphere about 10 min
7km after the associated daughter cloud starts rising rapidly.
The rapid intensification of this echo is interpreted as
due to the growth of graupel to millimetric sizes. Soon
after the appearance of the first echo it develops an
inverted cup-like shape partially encompassing a WER
which lasts for several minutes until the entire echo has
descended to the ground and obliterated it. The WER is
indicative of a moderately strong updraft. This may
reach 20-30 m s- 1 before diminishing with the descent
of precipitation through it.
The above description applies to multicell storms that
develop in the presence of moderate to strong wind
shear [(2-5) X w-a s- 1]. In the presence of weak shear
the production of daughter cells is likely to be less
I km frequent and less systematic in both time and space.

c. Radar structure of supercell storms

0 10 20
30 40km
FIG. 9a. Schematic horizontal sections showing the radar structure of
a unicellular supercell storm at altitudes of 1, 4, 7, 10 and 13 km AGL.
Reflectivity contours are labelled in dBZ. Note the indentation on the
right front quadrant of the storm at 1 km which appears as a
weak-echo vault (or BWER, as it is labeled here) at4 and 7 km. On the
left rear side of the vault is a reflectivity maximum extending from the
top of the vault to the ground (see Fig. 9b). (From Chisholm and
Renick, 1972.)
1971) in a preferred region on the right flank (see cell3 at
time 0 in Fig. 8). The newly formed daughter cell does
not move into the storm complex but rather grows
rapidly and becomes the storm center. Meanwhile, the
previous cell (cell2) begins to decay while another (cell
4) forms. New cells continue to form in this way at
intervals of 5-10 min and each cell is identifiable on
We shall restrict the discussion in this section to the
structure of isolated supercells. However, the discus-
sion can be generalized to apply to supercells adjoining
other storm cells, although in such situations precipita-
tion from one storm may enter the circulation of another
and produce a more complicated radar structure.
Supercell storms, as described by Browning and
Ludlam (1962), Browning and Donaldson (1963),
Browning (1965a), Chisholm (1970), Marwitz (1972a),
Renick, Chisholm and Summers (1972), Nelson and
Braham (1972), and Browning and Foote (1976), display
some basic characteristics that are often strikingly
similar from storm to storm. Chisholm and Renick
( 1972) summarize the characteristics of the radar
structure as follows (see Figs. 9a and 9b):
1) A supercell is approximately circular to elliptical
in plan view aloft, with a characteristic horizontal
10 PART I: HAIL PHYSICS

dimension of20 to 30 km and a vertical extent of 12 to 15 3) The maximum-reflectivity core, like the vault,
km. An extensive plume is observed by radar and this may show fluctuations but it retains the same basic
forms part of a much larger visible anvil 100-300 km in configuration and position relative to the vault.
length which extends downstream from the main storm
The above description applies to the more common
core. At low levels the echo is situated mainly on the
SR type of supercell. The echo structure of an SL
storm's left flank but echo may extend toward the right
supercell (but not its motion) is almost a mirror image of
flank in the shape of a hook.
the SR supercell's, mirrored about an axis parallel to the
2) A persistent vault is found on the right flank with
mean tropospheric shear vector (Browning, 1968). Also,
horizontal dimensions of 5 to 12 km. Typically the vault
this description corresponds only to what may be
decreases in width with height, extending to a height
termed the archetypal supercell with well-developed
one-half to two-thirds of the distance through the storm
vault. Some persistent storm cells appear to be! steady
depth. This extensive vault is indicative of a broad,
enough to qualify as supercells even though they do
strong (25-40 m s- 1) updraft which contains small
not display a vault (see Section 8c).
cloud particles but precludes the entry of hailstones
from above. The vault normally exhibits a slight tilt
4. Airflow in and near hailstorms
toward the left flank and near the top it leans in the
downshear direction. a. Location of the updraft
3) A high-reflectivity core extending all the way to
In an ordinary multicell storm the location of the
the ground borders the vault on its left rear flank
updrafts with respect to the overall storm coincides
resulting in a high-reflectivity gradient there. The
with the region where the new cells are developing. We
reflectivity maximum contains the largest hail on the
showed in Section 3b that, for a well-organized
side closest .to the vault with smaller hail and rain at
multicell storm in the presence of strong shear, the new
increasing distances from the vault. This is a size
cells develop on the storm's right flank, but in a
sorting effect associated with the descent of the hail
poorly organized, weakly sheared situation, the new
within an updraft that is characterized by a component
cells could develop almost anywhere. For an individual
of velocity toward the storm's left flank.
cell the location of the updraft with respect to its
Later (Section 7) we describe the conceptual model
associated precipitation echo differs according to the
of Browning and Foote (1976) which represents the
type of cell. In the case of a supercell, because of the
growth of hail within a storm of the kind depicted in Fig.
anomalous direction of travel, the updraft is located on
9. Two specific features of Fig. 9, apart from the vault,
either the right or left flank of the associated
form important parts of this model. One is the region of
precipitation echo according to whether it is an SR or
high reflectivity associated with hail cascading to the
SL supercell, respectively. Ordinary cells tend to travel
ground on the left rear flank of the vault: this is referred
in the general wind direction but faster than the low
to as the hail cascade. The other is the region of
level winds and so the updraft usually enters on the
relatively low reflectivity on the opposite side of the
forward side of the echo. The characteristic presence of
vault which does not extend far below 4 km. This has
rising cloud towers at the rear of the storm (Byers and
been described as the forward overhang (Browning and
Battan, 1949) is not necessarily inconsistent with this
Ludlam, 1962) and giant curved streamer (Browning,
since an updraft fed from the front at low levels may
1965c) but, because of its important role in the hail
penetrate to the rear of the storm as it rises to higher
process, Browning and Foote refer to it as the embryo
levels (Browning and Ludlam, 1962; Newton, 1966).
curtain.
True "back-feeder" storms, whose updrafts are fed by
In contrast with the highly time-dependent multicell
low-level air overtaking from the rear, occur when the
storm, supercells retain the same basic characteristics
updraft remains anchored to some topographical fea-
over typically 30 min to 1 h and occasionally for several
ture. Thus Henderson and Duckering (1970), in studying
hours. According to Chisholm and Renick (1972), the
hailstorms in the Black Hills region of South Dakota,
storm behavior during this time exhibits the following
found that many of these storms had their primary
characteristics indicative of a quasi-steady state:
inflow area along the trailing edge behind the precipita-
1) The maximum radar storm top may show minor tion core, especially during the early stages of the
variations in height, but usually not in excess of ± 1 km storm's life. Cooper et al. (1969), Marwitz et al. (1969)
about the mean. and Chisholm (1973) showed that, although this is a
2) The vault may fluctuate in both diameter and feature of slow-moving storms over mountain ranges
depth but it does not dissipate. Typically it travels in a and foothills, the main updraft moves to the front
straight line at a nearly constant speed (-10m s- 1) and of the storm cells as they move out of the foothills into
at an angle of oo to 40° to the right of the winds in the the plains. Davis et al. (1969) have also studied
layer 700 to 300 mb. hailstorms in the Black Hills and they found that the
K. A. BROWNING
back-feeder storms rarely give hail greater than 2 em in
diameter, whereas much larger hail is sometimes
produced by the conventional moving storm cells that
are fed from the front or side.
The location of an updraft in relation to the radar echo
can usually be inferred from the structure of the echo
combined with information from a nearby rawinsonde.
Marwitz et al. (1972) have developed a set of rules for
doing this. As is clear from Section 3, the detection of an
echo hole associated with a vault when scanning at
middle-tropospheric levels is in itself a sufficient
condition for the identification of an organized updraft.
Also, if the low-level PPI echo is shaped like a hook or
contains some other similar projection such that the
concave portion of the echo is open toward the
subcloud winds, this is again a good indication of the
presence of a vault or at least a WER and, hence, of an
organized updraft. In the absence of these well-defined
supercell features it is necessary to use other clues.
Thus if the outline of the low-level PPI echo is straight
or convex, one should determine the direction of tilt of
the individual reflectivity cores in relation to the mean
winds in the cloud Iayer. If the core is tilted in other than
a downshear direction then an organized updraft can be
anticipated beneath the overhang of the tilted reflectiv-
ity core. Moreover, the direction of travel of the storm
will deviate from the mean environmental winds toward
the side of the storm containing the updraft. Finally, if a
storm cell is moving with the mean environmental
winds, any updraft can be anticipated to be at the
leading edge of the echo and the degree of certainty with
which one can predict the presence of an organized
updraft depends on the sharpness of the horizontal and
vertical reflectivity gradients in that region. If these
gradients are sharp an updraft is likely to be present; if
the gradients are weak then any observed overhanging
echo may be due to the effect of shear.
b. Inflow toward the updraft
We have just seen that the updraft in a moving storm
is fed by an inflow from the front or side rather than
from the rear. The level of origin of this air is generally
quite low. For example, aircraft soundings in the inflow
region of an ordinary multicell hailstorm (Fankhauser,
1976) showed that almost the entire inflow was derived
from a layer which 20 km ahead from the storm was
restricted to below 1 km AGL. In some cases the inflow
may be as deep as 2 or 3 km (see Fig. 22b) but even then
the most intense updraft core is fed by air in the
kilometer closest to the ground. Much farther ahead of
the storm this air probably occupies an even shallower
layer.
A characteristic feature of the inflow in severe
hailstorms is a mesolow beneath the updraft core. The
associated surface pressure anomaly is typically about
11
I I
-----1 -
----r---
8 t __ ,1 ', ,.,...._.
.. -------
_ _..,..;.:::-c-_ __ _
q. t ____ T_.....
w t I I
A B
FIG. 10. Typical set of profiles of potential temperature 8, specific
humidity q and updraft velocity w measured at cloud base during a
flight beneath a northeast Colorado supercell from one side (A) of the
main updraft to the other (B). Note that the most intense part ofthe
updraft is characterized by potentially cold moist air that has
originated at the lowest level in the subcloud layer. (From Marwitz,
l972a.)
-0.5 mb (Fujita, 1963; Foote and Fankhauser, 1973;
Barnes, 1974); at cloud base it is probably slightly more.
Although this pressure anomaly is small compared with
the +4mb anomaly commonly associated with the
downdraft-induced meso high, it nevertheless gives rise
to considerable confluence and acceleration in the
inflow toward the updraft. The horizontal equation of
motion for the inflow can be written
du = _ _.!.._ iJP' + fx, (1)
dt Pe OX
where thex axis is along the mean inflow direction, Pe is
the air density in the environment at a given level, P'
the corresponding pressure perturbation in the
mesolow, and fx the frictional drag. According to
Grandia and Marwitz (1975), chaff trajectories indicate
that increments in horizontal velocity of 5-10 m s- 1 are
common in the inflow, with 15 m s- 1 being an extreme
value. Browning and Foote (1976) observed an incre-
ment of 12.5 m s- 1 in a severe supercell. Taking a
typical initial inflow velocity in the far environment of
5 m s- 1 relative to the ground, an increment of
10 m s- 1 , and neglecting friction, Eq. (I) implies a
pressure perturbation P ' of rather less than 1 mb at
levels between the surface and cloud base.
Air originating near the ground ascends smoothly and
virtually unmixed to cloud base in the main inflow
region of most hailstorms. Potential temperature (9) and
specific humidity (q) are therefore conserved and can be
used as tracers (Marwitz, 1972a). Fig. 10 shows
measurements from an aircraft flying across an updraft
at cloud base. The record is typical of many hailstorms
in northeast Colorado in that the updraft is charac-
terized by a maximum of q (and of equivalent potential
temperature 9e) but a minimum of 9. As a result,
hailstorms in northeast Colorado and elsewhere have
been found to have a virtual temperature at cloud base
which is typically zoe colder than the environment
(Marwitz, 1973; Davies-Jones and Henderson, 1973;
Grandia and Marwitz, 1975). This is due to the updraft
drawing upon air near the ground from a boundary layer
12 PART I: HAIL PHYSICS

500 entrainment of the relatively dry warm air at its top,

associated with strong buoyancy generation of turbu-
550 (a) lence energy (Mahrt, 1975). The resulting boundary
E layer is typically 2 km deep, with a weak increase in
3=
virtual potential temperature with height (except for the
600 0
z
,1 superadiabatic layer within 100 to 200 m of the ground)
:cE /,
::::>
0
0:: and a substantial decrease in moisture with height (Fig.
650 I <!)
11). Thus it is quite usual, on hail days as well as on
L1J
0::
::::>
I. 2 L1J
>
0 non-hail days, for the air with the highest Oe to be
(/) m
(/)
L1J
700 <( situated at the lower levels despite the existence of
0::
a.. z slight static stability. Differential advection often
0
750 I~ further increases the vertical gradient of moisture near
>
L1J
the ground. Together these factors cause the lifting
...J
w condensation level and the assessment of convective
800
instability to depend critically on whether one uses a
surface value of moisture or a layer-averaged value.
850 320 Established updrafts can transfer moist air from the
(K) surface to cloud base with negligible modification by
entrainment, in which case it is a near-surface value of
moisture that is applicable. However, the initiation of
convection is likely to depend more on the average
characteristics of the convectively mixed layer. Thus,
(b)
the large lapse of moisture offers a distinct advantage to
e
3 ;!;
established convection and is therefore favorable to the
maintenance of steady-state supercell convection. In
0
z this regard it may be significant that Mahrt finds that the
:c ::::>
0 vertical gradient of moisture is much larger in the
E 0::
<!)

w
supercell-prone High Plains region of the United States
0:: 2 ~ than in many other areas.
::::> 0
(/) I m If thermal buoyancy were the only vertical force, it
(/)
L1J
0::
a..
' \
I
<(

z would be impossible to account for the maintenance of

\ 0
\ updrafts characterized by negative buoyancy below
\ I~
\ >
L1J
cloud base. This difficulty can be resolved by taking
\
\ ...J
w into account the effect of nonhydrostatic pressure
'' ',..._ perturbations. Following List and Lozowski (1970), the
vertical equation of motion can be expressed as
85 vL-~~~2--~3---+4---5~~6~~~~~~
dw _ _.!._ aP' _ g ( ~)
MIXING RATIO (10- 3 )
dt Pe az Pe
FIG. 11. Solid curves represent average profiles of (a) potential
~~
temperature and (b) mixing ratio at 1400 MDT at Grover, Colorado, as
measured by the National Hail Research Experiment during the - g ( ) + d + fz, (2)
summer of 1973 for days on which hail occurred between 1400 and
2000 MDT in the NHRE area. Average profiles for dry sunny days are
also shown (dashed curves) for comparison. (After Mahrt, 1975.) where the primed values of pressure (P) and virtual
temperature (T) denote perturbation quantities, the
in which (} increases with height and q decreases with subscript e denotes the environmental quantities, and d
height. and f represent the drag due to hydrometeors and
It is well known that a "lid" of warm dry air (high 0) friction, respectively. The first term on the right of (2) is
from an elevated and sometimes arid region upwind can the acceleration due to the vertical gradient of the
enable a layer of high Oe (and hence large potential perturbation pressure and the second and third terms
buoyancy) to build up at low levels and that this sets the are the pressure and temperature components of
stage for the development of vigorous deep convection buoyancy. Typical values at cloud base for northeast
(Carlson and Ludlam, 1968). Such a dry layer is Colorado hailstorms, as suggested by Grandia and
common in the U. S. Midwest and, to a lesser extent, in Marwitz (1975), are T' = -2°C, Te = 285K, P' = -1
northeast Colorado. The summertime boundary layer mb, Pe =650mb. Using these values in Eq. (2) gives a
in northeast Colorado is greatly influenced by vigorous thermal buoyancy of -0.007 g and a pressure buoyancy
K. A. BROWNING 13

of +0.002g, i.e., such an updraft is indeed negatively Vonnegut and Moore (1958), Malkus (1960) and
buoyant at cloud base. Grandia and Marwitz (1975) Saunders (1962) have calculated the amount of penetra-
therefore argue that a negative vertical gradient of tion of the tropopause associated with a given vertical
perturbation pressure must exist within the updraft velocity at tropopause level, again assuming adiabatic
which overcompensates for the negative buoyancy. ascent. They show that for typical values of the static
stability in the lower stratosphere a vertical velocity of
c. Vertical velocity in the updraft about 20 m s- 1 is required for every I km penetration.
Penetrations of cloud tops 1-3 km above the
Most theories of hailstone growth require the updraft
tropopause are characteristic of hailstorms and, assum-
velocity in the supercooled parts of the cloud to be
ing parcel ascent, they are evidently consistent with the
comparable with the maximum terminal fall speed of the
presence of updrafts having velocities comparable with
hailstones. For large hailstones 3 to 10 em in diameter
the fallspeed oflarge hail. In some supercell storms the
the terminal fallspeed at mid-cloud levels (500 mb) is
tropopause penetration can be as much as 5 km,
between 30 to 50 m s- 1 (English, 1973); thus the
consistent with vertical velocities as great as 100 m s- 1
attainment of a strong updraft velocity is a necessary
according to parceltheory (e.g., Donaldsonet al., 1960;
but not sufficient condition for the growth of large hail.
Roach, 1967). However, as we shall see, updraft
Although entrainment of environmental air into the
velocities much in excess of30 m s- 1 have seldom been
updraft has a major effect on the updraft velocity in
detected by actual observations.
small convective clouds it can, to a first approximation,
Many different techniques have been used to
be neglected in the cores of the broad updrafts
measure updraft velocities; they include I) aircraft
associated with the more intense hailstorms for which
flights below cloud base, 2) storm penetrations by
adiabatic values of Oe are occasionally measured (e.g.,
armored aircraft, 3) rawinsondes, 4) low-fallspeed chaff
Davies-Jones and Henderson, 1973). Thus a useful
tracked by radar, 5) zero-lift balloons tracked by radar,
estimate of the upper limit to the updraft velocity in
6) dropsondes tracked by radar, 7) visual and radar
severe hailstorms can be obtained from moist adiabatic
estimates of the rate of rise of storm tops, 8) vertically
parcel theory. Chisholm (1973) has used a modified
pointing Doppler radars and 9) dual-Doppler radars
form of parcel theory which allows for the effect of
using a coplane scan. Most of these techniques suffer
water loading by an adiabatic water content assuming
from major limitations: The first six give velocities only
the condensed water to be carried with the updraft. The
along individual tracks, which may not be representa-
effect of precipitation drag can be important, a
tive of the updraft core. Icing may be a problem with
concentration of 4 g kg- 1 being equivalent to a tempera-
chaff and balloons, although List et al. (1974) have
ture deficit of l°C (Saunders, 1961). Latent heat of
shown that mere wetting is not a problem with chaff.
freezing (discussed by Weickmann, 1964) was neg-
Dropsondes are difficult to get into the updrafts of
lected in Chisholm's treatment. He calculated the
mature hailstorms because of the difficulties in flying
vertical velocity as a function of height from
over them and because the divergent flow at the updraft

Wz = [ Wo 2 + 2Rd rz (T' - mTe)d ln p] 112

,
summit tends to inhibit their descent through the
(3) updraft core (Hane, 1975). The rate of rise of storm tops
Po is a useful technique only for developing cells; as
where w 0 and Wz are the vertical velocities at pointed out by Browning and Ludlam ( 1962), it fails to
cloud base and height z, P 0 and P z are the detect the strong updrafts that occur in association with
pressures at cloud base and height z, T' and Te steady-state supercells. The Doppler radar methods
are the virtual temperature excess of the parcel and the have the great advantage of providingfields of velocity
virtual temperature of the environment, m is the mixing but they are limited to studying those hailstorms
ratio and Rd the gas constant for dry air. Chisholm passing either rather near (cop lane scan) or overhead
applied this equation to 29 hailstorms in Alberta and (vertical scan) and to those parts of the updrafts that
calculated maximum updrafts ranging from 14 to contain detectable particles in and beneath them.
69 m s- 1 . Newton (1968) estimated that if one neglects Many measurements of updraft velocity have been
water loading then values ofT' of I, 3 and soc averaged made by aircraft flying near cloud base. Observa-
over the depth of the troposphere would give rise to tions by Auer and Marwitz (1968) for 18 High Plains
maximum updraft velocities of 28, 49 and 63 m s- 1 at hailstorms indicate that the updraft averaged ' over the
tropopause level. None of these calculations, however, entire cloud base and over a period of typically 1 hour
took into account nonhydrostatic pressure gradients varies between 2.5 and 5.5 m s-t, with an average of
which may diminish the updraft velocity substantially 4 m s- 1 • Chisholm (1973) reports values of 4 to 6 m s- 1
in regions of strong positive buoyancy (Schlesinger, for Alberta hailstorms. Cooper et al. (1969) report
1975). updraft velocities generally smaller than this, with
14 PART I: HAIL PHYSICS

maximum values typically 4 m s- 1 or less. Wichmann conflicts with the prediction of parcel theory that for
(1951) in Germany reports updrafts at cloud base most hailstorm situations the updraft should continue
between 2 and 6 m s- 1 • Above cloud base it is more accelerating upward to near the level of the tropopause.
difficult to obtain accurate and representative measures The cloud tops in severe hailstorms are often close to
of updraft velocity. Some of the earliest updraft the height predicted by parcel theory and so it is
measurements were made using the rate of rise of echo reasonable to ask why the measured vertical velocity
tops in the Thunderstorm Project (Byers and Braham, should seem to be so strongly at variance with it.
1949). Although most of the storms studied were not Perhaps the decrease is an artefact due to icing of the
hailstorms, those cases where hail was encountered chaff, although Marwitz (1973) doubts this. Or perhaps
were characterized by updraft velocities that were it is a real effect induced by nonhydrostatic pressure
stronger than average, usually exceeding 15 m s- 1 • The gradients and the drag of the precipitation capping the
zero-lift balloon measurements in the Soviet Union WER. Indeed it is possible that the maximum of vertical
(Sulakvelidze et al., 1967) were again mainly in clouds velocity observed by Marwitz was a secondary
ofless than hailstorm intensity and this may account for maximum of the kind described by Atlas (1966) and that
the low mean value of the maximum vertical velocity an undetected larger maximum occurred at a higher
(12 m s- 1) and the low altitude at which it occurred (2 altitude. Certainly very strong updrafts have been
km above cloud base). Rather lower vertical velocities inferred at tropopause level from visual observations of
(:;;;:13 m s- 1) have been detected at levels 3-5 km daughter clouds on the flanks of a multicell hailstorm
above the cloud base using dropsondes (Bushnell, 1973) (Renick, 1971) and from the rate of rise of echo tops
but, although these were dropped near a hailstorm, they (Goyer, 1970; Ludlam, 1959). Some of the tops were
fell on the extreme fringe of the main updraft. ascending at 20m s- 1 or more, implying maximum
Davies-Jones and Henderson (1973) have analysed 33 updrafts near the cloud tops perhaps up to twice this
rawinsondes that entered the updraft of thunderstorms amount (Ludlam, 1963).
in Oklahoma and they report that the 8 strongest Our expectation that the strongest vertical velocities
updrafts typically showed a maximum of only 15 m s- 1 , should occur at higher levels receives support from
about 4.8 km above cloud base. However, in one Doppler radar observations. Measurements with a
case the updraft reached 37 m s- 1 • The associated zenith-pointing radar by Battan (1975) show that, in a
maximum temperature excess (aT) in the 33 soundings storm that gave hail 2.5 em in diameter, the updrafts
was typically 5°C, with 13°C reported in one case. An reached a maximum of 20m s- 1 in localized regions
updraft probably exceeding 30 m s- 1 has also been between 8 km and the top of the echo at 12 km MSL. In
measured by Cooper (1970) using a radar-tracked another storm, which produced small hail aloft (Battan
superpressure balloon. Wichmann (1951), too, has and Theiss, 1966), updrafts reaching a maximum of
reported updrafts of up to 30 m s- 1 on the basis of almost 20 m s- 1 were again found at a height of
sailplane flights over Germany. 10 km MSL, close to the echo top. Of course, the
Marwitz (1973) has measured the three-dimensional strongest updrafts may not have passed directly
tracks of 21 chaff packets rising in the WER of eight overhead of the radar. This difficulty is overcome by
northeast Colorado hailstorms. Tracking was discon- using two Doppler radars in the coplane scanning mode.
tinued as soon as the chaff entered intense precipitation Measurements of this kind by Kropfli and Miller (1976)
echo. Undoubtedly some of the chaff packets will not have shown that, during the declining stage of a rather
have ascended in the core of the updraft but, in view of weak northeast Colorado hailstorm which had a
the careful placing of the chaff in the WER of confirmed maximum temperature excess of 3°C and gave a little
hailstorms, Marwitz's results are considered to give a small hail, the maximum observed updraft was
good representation of the lower portion of hailstorm 20 m s- 1 , and this was reached at 11.5 km MSL (7 .4 km
updrafts. The maximum vertical velocity encountered above cloud base), at about the highest observable
by each chaff packet was between 9 and 27 m s- 1 and level in the storm.
averaged 17m s- 1 . The height of the maximum vertical The key to better and more representative meas-
velocity varied between 1. 7 and 4.2 km above cloud urements of vertical velocities in hailstorms lies in the
base. Penetrations by armored aircraft (Sand, 1976) dual or triple Doppler technique. We therefore await
through the updrafts of several hailstorms at 4.9 and further multiple Doppler observations in the hope that
6.7 km MSL (ground level at 1.4 km) have revealed data will be obtained within intense hailstorms. Then
maximum vertical velocities between 10 and 20m s-t, we shall see whether strong vertical velocities, ap-
broadly in line with Marwitz's chaff measurements. proaching more nearly those predicted by parcel
In Marwitz' s ( 1973) study, there was often a decrease theory, do indeed occur, and whether or not the
in vertical velocity just before the chaff was lost in the maximum velocities are usually located at high
strong precipitation echo capping the WER. This altitudes.
K. A. BROWNING 15

d. Tilt of the updraft for a typical storm speed, the effect ofthe inertia of the
Some early descriptive models of cumulonimbus updraft air is to cause the updraft to tilt upshear at most
visualized an essentially erect updraft. For simplicity levels. In all cases the updraft tends to become more
present-day numerical models sometimes consider an nearly erect with increasing height and eventually it tilts
erect updraft too. However, it is generally recognized downshear in its upper part. According to Newton, the
that updrafts are in fact usually tilted and this influences overall updraft should become more upright when
hail growth in several ways: First of all, the relative either the storm speed decreases or the vertical air
horizontal component of velocity within an updraft velocity increases. Similar calculations have been
implied by its tilt carries precipitation particles across carried out by Warner (1972) who points out that drag
the updraft and puts an upper limit on their time of forces alone are inadequate to explain the shape of the
residence in the region of growth. This same horizontal updraft and that mixing must be considered too. The
velocity component also helps prevent the accumula- above treatments also neglect the effects of non-
tion of high concentrations of precipitation that hydrostatic pressure perturbations and so they must be
otherwise might overload the updraft and cause it to regarded as giving only a crude and perhaps sometimes
decay. As is discussed later in this section, the sense a misleading impression of the probable updraft
and amount of updraft tilt in relation to the environmen- configuration.
tal winds may determine whether it is possible for a One of the first observationally validated models
quasi-steady downdraft to be maintained that will showing a tilted updraft was derived by Browning and
coexist with the updraft without mutual interference; it Ludlam (1960, 1962) for the Wokingham supercell
also may help determine whether precipitation particles storm (Fig. 12). Fig. 12 shows the storm traveling at the
grown during a first ascent in the updraft are able speed of the winds in the middle troposphere such that
subsequently to re-enter it so as to achieve further the updraft is fed by low-level winds approaching from
the storm's front flank. The updraft is inclined in the
growth during a second ascent. Yet another conse-
quence of the horizontal velocity associated with tilted upshear direction at low and middle levels before
updrafts is a tendency to produce size-sorting of turning in the downshear direction to feed an anvil
precipitation, with the largest particles falling on the outflow that extends ahead of the storm in the direction
edge of the precipitation-free portion of a strong updraft of the high level winds overtaking the storm. According
(cf. Section 5). to this model, while some precipitation falls from the
The configuration of an updraft depends on updraft summit ahead of the updraft and is able to
re-enter the foot of the updraft at lower levels, most of it
the way in which the horizontal and vertical
velocity of the air changes as it ascends within falls out of the updraft to the rear where it can, through
evaporative cooling and its drag, generate a downdraft
the updraft. Newton (1966; 1968) presents some
fed by dry middle-level air. Thus Browning and Ludlam
computations by F. C. Bates to show the effect of
developed the concept of a combination of wind shear
changes in the horizontal velocity of the updraft air.
and a tilted updraft enabling the updraft and downdraft
Bates calculated the horizontal acceleration of a
to be maintained continuously without serious interfer-
horizontal slice of an updraft of diameter D from an
ence, thereby enhancing the storm's overall energy.
equation originally used by Hitschfeld (1960), i.e.,
The model in Fig. 12 was derived for storms
developing in strong shear. However, the Doppler
dUe = W dUe = 2Cv( U - U )2/rrD (4) radar study by Kropfli and Miller (1976) has shown that
dt dz c e ' an essentially similar configuration can also develop in
the presence of relatively weak shear oo-a s-l over the
where Ue is the horizontal velocity within the updraft at cloud layer), although in this case the circulation is
a given level, U e is the horizontal velocity in the neither very intense nor persistent. Fig. 13, adapted
environment at the same level, and C vis the drag, which from Kropfli and Miller, shows the flow pattern relative
he took to be 1. 8 corresponding to a rough cylinder. The to the storm in a section oriented along the storm's
value of Ue was determined by integration of dUeldt direction oftravel. As in Fig. 12, the main updraft core
upward from the foot of the draft and it depends on the is tilted in the upshear direction in the troposphere, the
time spent by the air in each layer where it is being tilt decreasing with altitude, and the downdraft beneath
accelerated horizontally; hence the greater the vertical it is fed by dry and potentially cold middle-level air
velocity, the greater is the departure of U e from U e in an overtaking from the rear. Distinctly different results
environment in which U e increases with height. The were obtained by Miller et al. (1975) in a dual-Doppler
slope of the updraft can be computed from the ratio of study of a weak convective storm that failed to produce
vertical velocity to the horizontal velocity of the updraft hail. They showed that, although the updraft was fed
air relative to the moving storm. Newton shows that, from the front of the storm at low levels, the tilt of the
16 PART 1: HAIL PHYSICS

14

12

10
e
~
8
1-
:r
~
UJ 6
:r

/0
DISTANCE

FIG. 12. Tentatively inferred streamlines relative to the storm and isopleths of vertical velocity
(m s- 1) within a vertical section along the direction of movement of the Wokingham supercell
hailstorm. Storm motion is from left to right. The unshaded area corresponds to radar
reflectivity in excess of 30 dBZ. (After Browning and Ludlam, 1960.)

updraft reversed from an upshear tilt to a downshear tilt
at a level as low as 2.5 km AGL. As a result most of the
precipitation fell out ahead of the updraft and no
significant downdraft could be developed without
interference with the updraft.
So far we have discussed the updraft tilt in
two-dimensional terms. Although two-dimensional
models are sometimes a good approximation, this is not
so for supercell storms, for which the environmental
wind veers strongly with height relative to the storm.
(The veering applies to right-moving supercells; en-
vironmental winds back strongly with height relative to
left-moving supercells.) Thus, as shown in Fig. 14 the
direction of the updraft inflow (L) in a supercell is
different from that of the anvil outflow (H) and both of
these directions may be different from the mean
tropospheric wind shear. As we show later in Section 7,
the initial tilt of the updraft at low levels is downstream
along the direction of the low-level inflow but, as the air
rises toward the updraft summit, much of it begins to tilt
in a cross-shear direction toward the storm's left flank.
This causes most of the precipitation to fall out on the
left flank and generates a downdraft beneath the updraft
and in the location marked Din Fig. 14. This gives rise
to a side-by-side updraft-downdraft couplet of the kind
described by Browning ( 1965a; p. 324) instead of the

y=l2.6 km 1728.44 MDT km

14 28 JULY 1973 14
:J
en 12 12
~

~10 10
....
I 8 8
(.!)

w 6 6
I
4
}•o ma-l
4

2 2

30 40 ~0 GUST
DISTANCE EAST OF BASELINE (km) FRONT

FIG. 13. Detailed flow pattern, confidently inferred from dual DQppler radar data, for a vertical section along the direction of
travel of an ordinary multicell hailstorm in northeast Colorado. Velocity vectors represent flow relative to the storm, the
velocity scale being shown by the vertical 10 m s- 1 vector. The solid contours represent reflectivity at 8 dB intervals.
Approximate cloud outlines, gust front and inflow measurements from a low-flying aircraft have also been added to provide
context. The chain of large dots represents the trajectory of a growing hailstone, as explained in the text later in Section 9.
(Adapted by I. Paluch and J. C. Fankhauser from Kropfli and Miller, 1976.)
K. A. BROWNING
front-to-hack updraft-downdraft couplet portrayed in
Fig. 12.
e. Dimensions of the updraft
Most, although not all, mature hailstorms extend up
to or above the tropopause. Of course an updraft that
penetrates far above the tropopause is a symptom of
high updraft velocities at lower levels. But, for the
growth of hail, the vertical extent of the updraft in itself
is not usually an important factor since hail growth is
restricted to the supercooled region below the -40°C
level, i.e., below the level of the tropopause. The lateral
extent of the updraft, however, is important to the hail
growth. A broad updraft enables hailstones to stay
longer within it despite the tendency for horizontal
components to carry them to one side in a tilted updraft.
Moreover, a broad updraft minimizes the mixing into
the updraft core so that not only may the air ascend at
velocities closer to parcel theory but also the liquid
water content can remain high until depleted by the
growth of precipitation.
Most of the data on the vertical extent of updrafts in
hailstorms come from ordinary weather radar (e.g.
Douglas, 1963; Donaldson, 1965) since, after correcting
for beam-width errors, the top of the echo can be
identified rather closely with the top of the updraft. The
horizontal dimensions of the updraft are not always so
easily identified on the basis of echo extent because
precipitation is transported horizontally into neighbor-
ing regions. This problem does not apply near the top of
freshly rising towers or where a quasi-steady echo
extends above the tropopause, and measurements of
the lateral dimensions of the echo in these regions
indicate updraft diameters ranging from 3 km for
ordinary cells to 15 km for supercells. Although it can
be used only for supercells, a useful indication of
updraft extent at lower levels provided by an ordinary
weather radar is the width ofthe vault at its widest part.
According to Chisholm and Renick (1972), vaults have
typical horizontal dimensions of 5 to 12 km. It can safely
be assumed that the lateral extent of the updraft
exceeds that of the vault.
Flights by aircraft just below cloud base in 18 High
Plains hailstorms (Auer and Marwitz, 1968) indicated a
wide range of updraft areas from 10 to 172 km 2 ; the
average area was as large as 63 km2 • In contrast Cooper
et al. (1969) found that hail clouds in the Black Hills
region of South Dakota were usually quite small; the
updraft area at cloud base was often less than 9 km 2 ,
although occasionally traveling storms developed
which had updraft areas in excess of 80 km2 • In one
extreme case the updraft area was about 200 km 2 •
Visual cloud observations sometimes provide a good
measure of updraft extent. Thus the dimensions of the
17
L
H
WINO HODOGRAPH
FIG. 14. Schematic diagram showing a plan view ofthe side-by-side
updraft-downdraft couplet (U,D) in an SR supercell. Relative
streamlines show the inflow to the updraft entering at low levels L,
sloping upward across the direction of the mean tropospheric shear,
and leaving in the direction of the high-level winds H . Most of the
precipitation falls out of the sloping updraft U and gives a downdraft
Don its left flank. Also shown is a hodograph depicting wind vectors
relative to the moving storm in the lower (L), middle (M) and high (H)
troposphere.
pedestal cloud in the Fleming supercell storm (Fig. 7)
showed that the area of the updraft at cloud base was
again as great as 200 km 2 • The large diameter of the
cloud dome where it penetrated the tropopause in the
Fleming storm (Fig. 6), indicates that the updraft on that
occasion was just as extensive at high levels as it had
been at cloud base level. A source of data on the lateral
extent of updrafts in the middle troposphere are the
aircraft penetrations by Sand (1976) mentioned in
Section 4c. Flying through hailstorms at 4.9 to
6.7 km MSL, he reported 10 to 20m s- 1 updrafts with
widths of up to 10 km. The most representative
measurements of the horizontal extent of updrafts
aloft are provided by dual-Doppler radars operating
in the coplane mode. The observations of Kropfli
and Miller (1976), already referred to , indicated
a typical horizontal dimension of 5 km for individual
cells in a weak multicell storm. Updraft profiles through
one of these cells are shown in Fig. 15.
Kyle et al. (1976) have derived a composite average
of the updraft profile at 5.0 to 6.2 km for 12 northeast
Colorado storm cells for which the updraft was
single-celled and exceeded 8 m s- 1 at that level. They
normalized the updrafts in width and maximum
intensity (Wmax>· The composite average was compared
with the Gaussian and polynomial curves used by
modelers to describe some updraft characteristics. It
was also compared with an axially symmetric jet model.
All were found to provide a good fit. The updraft width
was found to increase from 2 to 3 km for a wmax of
10-15 m s- 1 to 4 to 5 km for a Wmax of 15-20 m s- 1 •
According to Auer et al. (1969) , when the updrafts are
traversed at cloud base in a direction normal to the
storm's direction of travel, there is a tendency for the
profile of vertical velocity to be more nearly that of a
top-hat as opposed to the Gaussian or polynomial
profiles found by Kyle et al.
With regard to the aspect ratio of updrafts, Hart and
18 PART I: HAIL PHYSICS

20 surrounded by a sheath into which is mixed all the air

entrained by the updraft as a whole. Unfortunately the
/ "N,
""'- Updraft Profiles
at y= 12.6 km necessary observational evidence does not exist to test
__r- 1728:44MDT the realism of these models. Probably the only definite

I
15
~ statement that can be made is that the core of the broad

FO•m~ updraft in supercells which produce large hail may be

I \

"'E
--...
/ \' almost unaffected by entrainment (e.g. Ludlam, 1963;
>. 10 '' Hm ~" Newton, 1966; and Roach, 1967).

\\
u /,... Turbulence may also be important to hail growth

''"·--1--1-.J-~/
E

II I / .
Q)

> because it can carry precipitation particles (potential

hailstone embryos) from one part of the updraft to
~
0
u
another where, perhaps because of strong vertical
:;:;
> .· · ~: velocities, the particles might otherwise have had
I I insufficient time to grow large. As explained in Section

-)/
0 8b, it also helps to reduce what we refer to as the 'unfair
... ····· ...
~. ....
-5
36 38 40 42
Distance from Baseline (km)
FIG. 15. Profiles of vertical velocity through the updraft core in the
multicell storm depicted in Fig. 13 at 5 different altitudes. The
altitudes are labelled in km AGL; ground level is at 1.5 km MSL. The
profiles at the lowest 2 levels do not show the main updraft since at
these levels it was located in a region of weak echo ahead of the storm.
(From Kropfli and Miller, 1976.)
Cooper (1968), Auer et al. (1969) and Kyle et al. (1976)
all report a tendency for the updraft dimension along the
direction of storm motion to be less than that normal to
this direction. This is borne out, for example, by the
shape of the pedestal cloud in Fig. 7b. Possibly this
asymmetry is due to the conversion of the rear portion
of the updraft into a downdraft by the water loading
effect.
f. Turbulence and mixing in the updraft
Turbulence in updrafts is important for several
reasons: First of all, it causes the updraft to mix with
environmental air often having a low equivalent
potential temperature and this tends to decrease the
buoyancy of the updraft and its vertical velocity.
Various models have been devised (e.g. Weinstein and
Davis, ,1968; Davis et al., 1969; and Hirsch, 1970) which
estimate updraft velocities taking into account among
other things an entrainment rate assumed to be
inversely proportional to updraft radius. Marwitz et al.
(1970) have estimated updraft velocities using the
entrainingjet model of Squires and Turner ( 1962) which
assumes a steady-state turbulent, condensing, plume
that entrains environmental air at a rate proportional to
the vertical velocity. And Newton (1966) has made
calculations showing the effect of entrainment under
the simplifying assumption that the updraft consists of
an undiluted core occupying half the total updraft width
competition' of hailstones growing on the edge of the
vault. Turbulence is important, too, for cloud seeding
because of the need to diffuse the seeding material
44 46 throughout the updraft.
In-cloud turbulence data are available from both
aircraft and Doppler radar. Flights into the updrafts of
hailstorms show qualitatively a consistent pattern:
1) Smooth flow in the updraft at cloud base (Wills,
1939; Wichmann, 1951; Piggott, 1955; Auer and Sand,
1966; Auer and Marwitz, 1968; Dennis et al., 1970;
Marwitz and Berry, 1971; Marwitzet al., 1972). Foote
and Fankhauser (1973) point out that the inflow region
tends to be smoother even than air measured at the
same altitude well away from the storm.
2) Light-to-moderate turbulence in the updraft core
in the middle and upper troposphere (Sinclair, 1969;
Sand, 1976). This is consistent with the air rising into an
unstable region, so that any perturbation in the vertical
becomes amplified by the instability.
3) At least moderate and more frequently severe
turbulence in the areas of high radar reflectivity
bounding the updraft core (Sand, 1976). Sand's
measurements were made entirely at middle tropos-
pheric levels but they agree well with aircraft penetra-
tions in the upper troposphere made in Oklahoma
(Burnham and Lee, 1969).
Measurements in an ordinary multicell hailstorm
using a Doppler radar scanning at a low elevation angle
(Strauch eta/., 1975) also indicate a close association of
the region of most intense turbulence with the region of
highest reflectivity in the middle troposphere. Strauch
et al. showed that the turbulence was centered about
the rather strongly sheared interface between the main
updraft and downdraft. They measured variances due
to velocity fluctuations on scales smaller than 800 m of
more than 14m2 s- 2 within a volume with linear
dimensions 2 km. Although there was no direct
evidence of an inertial subrange extending to these
scales, they computed that, if this had been the case, the
K. A. BROWNING 19

maximum energy dissipation rate e would have been as TABLE I. Spectral slopes (k) and energy dissipation rate (e) in

high as 3600 cm2 s-3 , corresponding to very severe different parts of convective storms in NE Colorado (from Kyle,
1975).
turbulence. Donaldson and Wexler (1969) using a
vertically pointing Doppler radar have also inferred the Average Average e Range of e
existence of severe turbulence on the flanks of the Location k (cm 2 s- 3 ) (cm 2 s-")
updraft between 5 and 10 km MSL. Updraft -1.63 500 27-1730
Turbulence spectra have been derived from aircraft Downdraft -1.56 300 8-5800
Unorganized -1.50 llO 1-1000
penetrations of hailstorms by a number of workers. One Clear air -1.34 -1 0-20
of the earliest studies was by Steiner and Rhyne ( 1962)
who obtained measurements in the upper parts of
severe convective storms in Oklahoma. In one extreme
horizontal momentum only slowly. This led Newton
case they obtained a spectrum obeying a -5/3 law
and Newton ( 1959) to postulate that the updraft tends to
which gave an e approaching 10 000 cm2 s-3 • Other
behave like an obstacle causing the environmental flow
measurements in large thunderstorms summarized by
to divert around it. Of course the updraft does not
MacCready (1964) give maximum values of e in the
behave at all like an obstacle to the environmental flow
range 1000 to 5000 cm2 s - 3 •
at very low levels where air enters it as a well defined
The most extensive set of measurements of turbu-
inflow. Neither can it be considered to behave like a
lence spectra within thunderstorms was obtained
truly solid obstacle at any other level because its outer
recently by Kyle (1975). He analyzed data obtained by
portions are eroded away by the environmental flow.
an aircraft penetrating 13 updrafts at an altitude
Nevertheless the analogy with an obstacle has been
between 4.9 and 6.1 km MSL. He categorized sections
shown to be a useful concept especially for severe
of the flights according to whether they were in clear air,
storms. Observations of the wind field around SR
an organized updraft, downdraft, or a region of
supercell storms in the middle troposphere have been
disorganized motion. He derived mean values of
made using radar tracked chaff (Fankhauser, 1971),
spectral slope and, since the slopes were usually close
ground-based Doppler radar (e.g. Brown and .cr~w­
to k = -5/3, he also derived the corresponding energy
ford, 1972) and airborne Doppler radar for navtgatlon
dissipation rates e, with the results shown in Table 1.
(Fujita and Grandoso, 1968; Browning and Foote,
The value of 500 cm2 s-3 fore, although an overestimate
1976). These observations clearly show that some of the
for the less turbulent lower parts of the updraft, can be
air overtaking the storm diverts around it, accelerating
used to obtain an approximate estimate of the rate of
as it passes around the storm core (Fig. 16). The flow
in-cloud turbulent diffusion of seeding material in
past the storm's right flank tends to be faster than that
weather modification operations. Kyle (1975) suggests
past the left flank; in Fig. 16, for example, the maximum
that diffusion of seeding material from a single centrally
velocity enhancement on the right flank is as much as a
located point source at cloud base will probably be
factor of 2 over the environmental winds whereas the
sufficient to result in reasonable seeding coverage of the
enhancement on the left flank is quite slight. Fank-
updraft region for updrafts of small or intermediate
hauser (1971) points out that this behavior resembles
diameters characteristic of ordinary multicell storms,
the kind of flow that occurs around a cyclonically
but not for the large updrafts characteristic of
rotating cylinder. The nature of the flow around the
supercells. These inferences remain to be confirmed by
updraft is important to hail growth because, as. we
direct observation. According to a number of aircraft
discuss later, some precipitation particles on the nght
penetrations at about the 5 km level reported by
flank of the updraft in supercell storms get carried
Summers et al. (1972), although e in small cumulus
around the flank by the strong environmental flow. This
is of the order of 100 cm 2 s-3 or less, e in large
enables the precipitation to re-enter the foot of the
cumulus towers tends to be even larger than that within
updraft in a location that permits it to make a second
the main updraft of hailstorms and is typically of order
ascent through the updraft during which it may grow
1000 cm2 s - 3 • This may be significant for seeding
into large hail.
operations in that the early growth of hailstone embryos
in ordinary multicell storms occurs within large
h. Rotation within the updraft
cumulus towers (daughter clouds) situated on the flank
of the main storm. Rotation of the updraft is important for the generation
of tornadoes but its influence on hail growth is
g. The updraft as an obstacle to environmental flow uncertain. Some of the largest hail nevertheless falls in
association with updrafts that are believed to rotate and
As noted in Section 4c there is a tendency for the so it is necessary to say a little about rotation.
vigorously rising air in an updraft to change its Significant rotation is probably confined to super-
20
Fto. 16. Relative winds, streamlines and isotachs (kt) at 500 mb around an isolated SR supercell storm near
Topeka, Kansas, on 21 April 1961. (From Fujita and Grandoso, 1%8.)
cells. It has been proposed that the updraft in an SR
supercell rotates cyclonically and that this may account
for the development of the characteristic radar hook
echo as being a result of precipitation particles
descending within the rotating updraft (e.g. Browning,
1964). Visual observations sometimes show cyclonic
rotation of the main cloud base (e.g. Barnes, 1970).
Evidence of cyclonic circulation extending to high
levels has been obtained by Doppler radar observations
of tornadic SR supercell storms in Oklahoma (e.g.
Burgess et al., 1975; Ray et a/., 1975). However, in
observations such as these it is not always clear
whether the strongest vorticity is within, or at the
boundaries of, the updraft. Fujita and Grandoso ( 1968)
have suggested that the updraft in an SL supercell
rotates in the opposite sense to that in SR supercells but
Doppler radar observations of an SL supercell by
Achtemeier (1975) have failed to substantiate this.
An SR supercell usually develops from a cluster of
ordinary cells and the onset of anomalous propagation
to the right of the winds occurs simultaneously with the
development ofthe supercell radar structure, including
the hook echo (Browning, 1965b). At the same time the
first visual evidence of rotation may develop with the
appearance of a rotating funnel cloud. Fujita and
Grandoso (1968) have proposed that the rightward
motion of these supercells is due to the cyclonic
rotation through the effect of the Magnus lift force.
PART I: HAIL PHYSICS
500MB RELATIVE WINOS
1620-1813CST
APRIL 21, 1961
Although rightward cell motion and rotation often do
appear to go hand-in-hand it is not yet clear that the
anomalous motion has to be a result of the rotation.
The origin of cyclonic vorticity within an updraft is
not fully understood. A possible explanation, however,
is that it is due to the tilting of the strong horizontal
component of vorticity in the inflow. According to
Browning and Landry (1963) and Barnes (1970) the
strong wind veer with height in the low-level inflow
gives a component of vorticity parallel to the mean
inflow direction that can be as great as 10-2 s- 1 • This
component is turned almost completely into the vertical
within the updraft core. Schlesinger (1975) also points
out that the horizontal component of vorticity p erpen-
dicular to the inflow direction is tilted into the vertical
by differential cloud-scale vertical motions. This will
generate rotation of differing sense on opposite sides of
the updraft which may be difficult to distinguish
observationally from the vorticity due to the environ-
mental air blowing around the updraft. Finally,
horizontal convergence will also have the effect of
stretching the vortex tubes , thereby further increasing
the vertical component of vorticity.
i. Some properties of the downdraft
Narrow downdraft zones have been observed at the
boundaries of active cloud turrets (e.g. Ackerman,
K. A. BROWNING
1969) and broader zones of warm dry downdrafts of up
to 5 m s- 1 have been detected in the clear air
surrounding the upper parts of the updrafts of severe
storms (Sinclair, 1973; Fritsch, 1975). However, the
strongest downdrafts are usually encountered within
the main precipitation fallout zones. The vertical
velocity of these downdrafts varies widely but tends to
be roughly half as strong as the updraft velocities. The
maximum downdraft velocity so far observed in
Doppler radar studies of hailstorms is 15m s- 1 (Strauch
and Merrem, 1976). Although such downdrafts are of
direct relevance to the hail process in that they can
speed the descent of the hail to the ground and thereby
slightly diminish the amount of melting, at least in the
case of small hail (Ludlam, 1958), the main importance
of downdrafts is in their influence on the intensity and
persistence ofthe hailstorm itself. As long ago as 1946,
Normand had recognized the possibility 'that the
cumulonimbus is a cloud that takes advantage of the
energy available from descending moist currents, (and)
that it is organized to take in potentially cool air at the
higher levels as well as potentially warm air at the lower
levels.' In order that it should be able to do so it is
essential, as Ludlam (1963) points out, that the updraft
should be tilted in such a way that the water condensed
in the updraft can be precipitated into air with a low
equivalent potential temperature (Be). Once the precipi-
tation has entered this cold dry air it can produce a
downdraft through evaporative cooling and melt-
ing as well as through its drag (Hookings, 1965;
Kamburovaand Ludlam, 1966). The evaporative cooling
mechanism is not straightforward, however, because
the small droplets which evaporate most easily have
insufficient terminal fallspeed to penetrate far into the
cold air. Haman (1973) therefore suggests that
downdrafts can best be maintained by evaporation of
small droplets supplied by entrainment of cloudy air
from neighboring updrafts. There is a certain range of
entrainment coefficients for which this process can be
effective. Too small an entrainment will not provide a
sufficient supply of small droplets; too large an
entrainment may introduce too much warm air from the
updraft, which will overcompensate the evaporative
chilling.
We have already remarked that a downdraft is best
produced when precipitation from an inclined updraft is
able to fall into air with a low Be. However, it appears
that such a downdraft can develop in different locations
with respect to the main updraft depending on the
direction of travel of the low Be environmental air
relative to the storm. One way is for air to enter a
downdraft at the rear of the storm as shown in Figures
12 and 13. Another way, typical of SR supercells, is for
the cold middle-level air to approach from the right
flank and to generate a downdraft within precipitation
21
falling ahead of the updraft, eventually reaching the
ground on the storm's left flank (see Fig. 14).
The cold downdraft air, which gives rise to the
well-known mesohigh (Fujita, 1963), diverges in all
directions at the surface. Most of the downdraft air gets
left behind the storm but some of it initially flows ahead
of the storm to give a sharp gust front. In some line
storms and, more generally, in association with
decaying storms, the gust front may spread a long way
ahead of the precipitation (see, e.g., Fig. 13). However,
according to Auer et al. (1969), in intense steady-state
hailstorms, the gust front usually extends only 5 or 6 km
ahead of the leading edge of the main precipitation core.
5. Nature and distribution of the precipitation within
hailstorms
a. General features
One of the biggest gaps in our knowledge of
hailstorms concerns their microphysical structure.
Something about the in-cloud distribution of hail can be
inferred from indirect radar methods (Srivastava and
Jameson, 1976) and some information about the
in-cloud hailstone environment can be inferred from an
analysis of the hailstones themselves after they reach
the ground (Macklin, 1977). But the best way of
determining the nature of cloud particles and precipita-
tion aloft is by means of in situ measurements from
aircraft. Only in this way can we obtain the information
on size spectra and the phase of individual particles that
is so important for an understanding of the mechanisms
of hail growth. Airborne measurements in hailstorms
are obviously hazardous to obtain and it is only
comparatively recently that systematic measurements
of this kind have begun to be made. The principal
penetration aircraft presently in use is a T-28 aircraft
specially armored for intercepting hailstorms (Sand and
Schleusener, 1974). Most penetrations so far have been
made between 5 and 7 km MSL (- 5 > T > - 20°C)
and, because of the need to avoid the very hazardous
storms with reflectively exceeding 55 dBZ at the
penetration altitude, severe hailstorms have not been
penetrated.
One of the most thoroughly analyzed series of
hailstorm penetrations is that reported by Musil et al.
(1975) for two moderately intense multicell storms in
northeast Colorado, one of which produced hail up to 15
mm in diameter. Data on the size and concentration of
precipitation particles were obtained using a foil
impactor during 8 penetrations through both active and
inactive portions of the hailclouds. These are sum-
marized in Table 2.
Table 2 gives data on the concentration of all
precipitation particles with diameters greater than 250
JLm (N 1) and of those greater than 5 mm (N 5). It also lists
22 PART I: HAIL PHYSICS

TABLE 2. Summary of data obtained during 8 penetrations of 2 hailstorms in NE Colorado (from Musil et al., 1975)
(see text for explanation of symbols).

Date 9 July 1973 31 July 1973

Penetration 80-1 80-2 80-3 89-1 89-2 89-3 89-4 89-5

Start time (MDT) 171636 172904 174147 153520 154700 155411 160002 160848

End time (MDT) 172322 173649 175112 154103 155019 155722 160522 161436

Average altitude (km) 7.2 5.9 5.5 6.7 6.3 5.5 5.0 5.1

Average temperature (0 C) -15 -7 -4 -13 -9 -4 -I -2

Volume sampled (m 3 ) 59.2 68.0 81.9 49.7 28.8 27.9 46.2 58.4

Nt(m- 3 )
Percent 100 97 100 100 100 100 96 92
Max 268 440 352 167 190 321 162 110
Avg 92 119 101 52 71 79 60 39
(]" 65 111 96 44 39 107 45 32

N 5(m- 3 )
Percent 42 20 25 33 86 19 29 34
Max 7.2 11.6 3.0 4.4 12.3 3.3 8.8 21.7
Avg 3.3 4.8 1.7 2.8 3.5 1.8 3.3 6.5
(]" 2.5 3.5 .9 1.1 3.3 1.1 2.8 6.6

PC (g m- 3)
Percent 48 46 49 39 96 27 66 59
Max 2.0 2.1 1.1 1.2 3.1 3.0 4.2 12.0
Avg 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.5 1.7
(]" 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.4 1.1 1.2 1.0 3.0

the total content (g m- 3) of precipitation particles with
diameters exceeding 250 JLm (PC). For each parameter
Table 2 shows the maximum, mean and standard
deviation for all penetrations. PC values less than
0.1 g m- 3 were not included in the averages. The
percentages shown for each parameter refer to the
fraction of time during the penetration that a non-zero
value of the parameter was observed. It can be seen that
particles 5 mm and larger were found in relatively small
regions of the cloud compared with particles 250 JLm
and larger. Values of N 1, N 5 and PC varied widely
during the penetrations. Average values of N 1
and PC are much lower than their associated maxima.
The largest observed particle concentration (N1 )
was 440m-3 • There is some indication that N 1 and N 5
are inversely related. This may be due to the larger
particles tending to sweep out the smaller ones or it may
simply reflect the fact that the large particles were
often found in locations where smaller ones were
unable to fall against the updraft.
Musil et al. (1975) point out that the particles greater
than 5 mm in diameter contributed most to the overall
precipitation content PC. The largest observed value of
N 5 was 22m-3 corresponding to a PC of 12 g m- 3 •
Twenty-one other penetrations on other occasions in
northeast Colorado have revealed no other cases in
which the foil impactor indicated a value as great as
this. Apart from this one case the maximum value of PC
during each of the penetrations listed in Table 2 ranged
between 1 and 4 g m- 3 • Much larger values have been
measured using evaporator devices, although there is
some question about their reliability (Smith, 1976).
Kyle and Sand (1973), for example, measured a value of
over 20 g m- 3 in a localized region of a northeast
Colorado storm, while Ackerman (1974) measured
values of up to 20 g m- 3 in rather weak storms in Illinois
and Missouri. Also, Roys and Kessler (1966) have
measured values in excess of 10 g m- 3 in Oklahoma
hailstorms while Bartishvili et al. (1961) measured
values averaging as high as 20 to 30 g m- 3 in the Soviet
Union.
One of the penetrations (80-1) in Table 2 was made
through the core of the principal updraft of the
hailstorm. Detailed data from this penetration are
plotted in Fig. 17. The solid curve shows the vertical
velocity encountered by the aircraft, the dotted line
shows the precipitation content (PC) due to all particles
greater than 250 JLm in diameter, and the dashed line
shows the liquid water content (L WC) due to droplets
less than 50 JLm in diameter as measured by a
Johnson-Williams sensor. The thick bar labeled
Rosemount activity is an indication of rapid icing and is
supported by the pilot's visual observations noted at the
top of the figure. Rapid icing is taken to indicate high
concentrations of supercooled water, possibly with
large droplets present.
The following features of Fig. 17 are believed to be
characteristic of many hailstorms:
1) The bulk of the precipitation content was located
outside and on the edge of the main updraft and it was in
K. A. BROWNING 23

-ICING-- - - Verltcol Veloci ty

- - - LWC
20 ........... PC 2
i'
v
Ql
-Rosemount AciiVIIY
"'E ..... ...
>-
'e
0'
I- 10
u
0
...J
w
>
...J
..•'
<t ':
u 0
I-
a:
w
>

In (min. )
Cloud
FIG. 17. Measurements from the T-28 armored aircraft flying at about 7 km MSL
through an ordinary multicell hailstorm near Raymer, northeast Colorado, on 9 July
1973. The aircraft entered a recently risen daughter cloud at 1716~ MDT, then went
through a mature cell, and was in decaying cloud residues at 1720 (cf. Fig. 21). The
three profiles represent vertical velocity, liquid water content (LWC) due to
droplets smaller than 50 ~-tm diameter, and precipitation content (PC) due to
particles (mainly ice) larger than 250 1-1-m diameter. The bars indicate high
Rosemount icing rates and aircraft icing observations by the pilot (top). The letters
along the time axis indicate the location of the particle size distributions in Fig. 19.
(After Musil eta/., 1975, 1976.)

the form of frozen particles. Actually the aircraft is
known to have narrowly missed the main downdraft
region and the highest concentration of precipitation is
believed to have occurred in the region of high
reflectivity at the interface between the main updraft
and downdraft.
2) Most of the large precipitation particles were
falling relative to the ground.
3) The particles within the updraft were mainly small
and rising relative to the ground . However, there were
some large ( ~ 5 mm) particles in a concentration of
1 m- 3 on the leading edge of the updraft where a first
echo was being observed by radar.
4) The main updraft at the level of penetration
( - l2°C) contained a substantial percentage of liquid
particles.
Supercell hailstorms are usually too intense to be
penetrated by the T-28 aircraft. Some supercells which
developed in northeast Colorado on 22 July 1972 were,
however, only moderately intense in terms of updraft
strength, radar reflectivity and hail size, and so they
were penetrated (Musil et al., 1973). The storms on this
occasion were multicellular, with some of the cells
having the characteristic supercell structure, and the
aircraft encountered multiple updrafts as it flew through
one cell after another. Hail was encountered many
times, and it occurred consistently near the edges of the
updrafts where it was accompanied by rather high liquid
water content as evidenced by moderate-to-heavy icing
rates. Vertical sections from radar data obtained along
the penetration tracks showed well-defined weak-echo
vaults. The aircraft generally flew beneath the over-
hangs capping the vaults and did not encounter
precipitation until it entered the region of high
reflectivity on the rear edge of each vault. Here it
encountered hail, often monodispersed, suggesting that
it was being size-sorted, with the larger hail being in the
stronger updrafts. One of the penetrations, through a
newly developing supercell, took the T-28 aircraft
through regions of echo that bounded the vault on both
sides as shown in Fig. 18. The echo entered at about
1619 MDT corresponded to what we describe
elsewhere as the embryo curtain; the echo penetrated at
about 1620 MDT corresponded to the main region of
fallout which we describe as the hail cascade. Both
regions of echo were found to be associated with hail
the size of peas. Fig. 18 shows that the updraft was 6 km
in extent, with a maximum vertical velocity of 15 m s- 1
within the vault.
An important and still not fully resolved aspect of hail
growth is the mechanism of the formation of the initial
embryos (Knight, 1975). In evolving ordinary cells the
region of the 'first echo' marks the location of embryo
formation. Unfortunately there is a dearth of in situ
measurements within the first echo regions of actual
24 PART 1: HAIL PHYSICS

1620 1619 MOT storms to have higher first echoes than non-severe
storms was noted by Arnold (1961) and it suggests that
the ice crystal!graupel mechanism is more likely to play
a dominant role in these cases. Browning and Atlas
(1965) and Dennis and Koscielski (1972) attribute the
greater height of the first echoes in the more severe
T-28
storms to the presence of strong updrafts which carry
(o) the cloud particles to high levels in the time taken for
them to grow to radar-detectable sizes.
1-..J
-,o 10
:r:Vl
l!)::z: b. Particle size distributions aloft
wE
:I:~ ~
Fig. 19 shows the particle size distributions measured
(b)
1-
at a series of locations during a flight through an
>- z ordinary multicell hailstorm at 7 km MSL. The results
1- I~ w
g tO
1-
z have been derived from the foil impactor data of Musil
..J
w-
I 0-
u":' et at. (1975; 1976) which were discussed in Section 5a.
> 7 a:: E The sampling volume for each size spectrum was 2 to 8
<i_ "'
5 w
E
5::::?-o
!ct2' m3 , obtained over a flight path of typically 2 km. All of the
03:
1-
a:: 0 spectra in Fig. 19 are broad and essentially hi-
w -5 5 exponential. In the small-diameter region the slope is
(c) > 0
::::i similar to a Marshall-Palmer distribution but the
FIG. 18. Measurements from the T-28 armored aircraft flying at intercept is lower. In the large-diameter region the slope
6.5 km MSL through a newly developing supercell in the NHRE area is similar to a Douglas hailstone size distribution
on 22 July 1972. (Re-analysis by C. G. Wade of data from Musil eta/., (Douglas, 1964) but the intercept is higher. Processes
1973.) Figure 18(a) shows the PPI echo at the level of the aircraft, with
isopleths at 20 and 30 dBZ; (b) shows the echo pattern in a vertical such as shedding of water from melting hailstones,
section along the aircraft track; (c) shows the vertical velocity, liquid raindrop breakup and evaporation will modify the
water content and hail occurrences along the aircraft track. This same
supercelllater became the hailstorm depicted in Fig. 7 of Foote and
Fankhauser (1973).

(a)--
hailstorms and it is for this reason that the NHRE (b) - - -
( c) -- ----·
program is planning to make a concerted effort to
102 (d) · - -
penetrate such regions using both powered aircraft and (e) ·············
a sailplane. The temperature at the altitude of the first ( f ) .........
7
echo provides an indication of whether the embryos are E
initiated by the coalescence mechanism or by the E
..,
ice-crystal/graupel mechanism. Sometimes, however, 0

E 10
the temperature is such that the first echo can be
accounted for in either way. A substantial amount of 0

data has been collected on the altitude of first echoes in c

convective clouds (e.g. Battan, 1973; p. 174) but most of
these data do not apply specifically to hailstorms.
Studies definitely related to hailstorms have shown a
wide range of temperatures for the first echoes, from
- 12oc in a weak northeast Colorado hailstorm (Chalon
et at., 1976) to - 30°C in intense hailstorms in Oklahoma
(Browning and Atlas, 1965), South Dakota (Dennis et
al., 1970) and Alberta (Renick, 1971). An extreme value
of -40°C has been reported in a damaging hailstorm in
Illinois (Changnon and Stout, 1964). For comparison,
the first echoes in generally weaker convective clouds
in these regions have been found to occur at relatively
high temperatures, typically -15°C in both South
Dakota (Dennis and Koscielski, 1972) and northeast
Colorado (Dye et al., 1974). The tendency for severe
5
DIAMETER (mm)
FIG. 19. Particle size distributions measured during the flight at
7 km MSL through the core of the Raymer multicell hailstorm. Six
spectra are shown corresponding to the locations indicated by letters
(a) through (f) in Fig. 17. The spectra represent the following
conditions: (a) Leading edge of main updraft, (b) and (c) Interior or
main updraft, (d) Rear edge of main updraft, (e) and (f) Edge of main
downdraft which was centered to one side of aircraft track. The
straight lines represent Marshall-Palmer (MP) and Douglas (D) size
distributions appropriate for precipitation concentrations equal to
those observed at location (d) for all particles of diameters up to and
exceeding 5 mm, respectively. (After Musil eta/. , 1975, 1976.)
K. A. BROWNING 25

10 2

r0
I
~ 101
;i
Q
1-
<r 10°
0::
1-
z
w
u 10- 1
z
0
u
I0- 2 c =616.5 o- 3 · 5

I0- 3
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

GRAUPEL OR HAIL DIAMETER, MM

FIG. 20. Concentrations of hailstones or graupel measured in 40 airborne encounters of solid
precipitation close to the edge of the organized updraft in 15 High Plains storms. For each
encounter the particles were found to be essentially monodispersed and the total number
concentration for each such encounter is indicated in the figure by a bar. (After Auer and
Marwitz, 1972.)

observed in-cloud spectrum of precipitation as the
particles descend to the ground, and this will tend to
increase the overall number of particles reaching the
ground especially at the smaller sizes.
Aircraft flights beneath cloud base have also pro-
vided interesting data as a result of encounters (often
inadvertent) with hail and graupel. Auer and Marwitz
(1972) describe 40 airborne encounters with hail and
graupel in 15 hailstorms, usually on the edge of the main
updraft and in the vicinity of the strong reflectivity
gradients bordering the main precipitation area. Simul-
taneous observations were also obtained on the ground.
The size of hail varied from 5 to 50 mm and the
maximum updraft velocity nearby varied from 2.5 to
10m s- 1 • Particle concentrations are plotted in Fig. 20.
During each encounter with hail in this rather special
location of the storm, the following features stood out:
1) In contrast with the measurements of Musil et al.
(1975; 1976) at higher levels, the size range ofhailfor an
individual encounter was essentially monodispersed.
2) As noted by Browning and Ludlam (1960), the
precipitation sequence at the ground over which the
organized updraft passed was large hail followed by
smaller hail and rain.
3) The hail on the edge of the updraft tended to be the
largest hail that fell anywhere from the storm.
4) The hail was commonly not accompanied by rain.
5) A rather small range of hail concentrations
occurred on the different occasions for a given diameter
of hail.
The observations of Auer and Marwitz (1972) are
consistent with the hail encountered by the aircraft on
the edge of the updraft having been grown within the
overhang above the vault or WER and having been
size-sorted while descending along the boundary of the
vault through a strong updraft. Jameson and Srivastava
(1976) have also recorded a region of roughly monodis-
persed hail below the ooc level using vertical incidence
Doppler radar measurements; they attributed this
partly to the effect of melting. On the other hand,
time-resolved measurements by Battan and Theiss
(1972) and Federer and Waldvogel (1975) show hail
size distributions at the ground that are exponential
rather than monodispersed; perhaps this is because
their measurements were not made on the very edge of
organized updrafts as in the case of Auer and Marwitz's
measurements. Not surprisingly, time-integrated hail
spectra measured at the ground (Douglas, 1964) are
almost invariably exponential.
Auer (1972) gives a rather similar hail size distribu-
tion to that shown in Fig. 20 and he uses it to calculate
the radar reflectivity factor corresponding to the
observed particle concentrations, assuming the parti-
cles to be spherical and electromagnetically wet. He
estimates that reflectivity values of 10\ 105 and
106 mm 6 m- 3 indicate the presence of particles having
diameters of 4, 8 and 35 mm, respectively.
c. The accumulation zone: fact or fiction?
Hitschfeld and Douglas (1963) suggested the possibil-
ity that hailstone growth might benefit from water
contents in excess of the 4 g m- 3 typical of adiabatic
contents in Alberta. They suggested that this might
occur as a result of high concentrations of large liquid
water drops growing within a persistent updraft. The
concept of an accumulation of raindrops was given its
26 PART 1: HAIL PHYSICS

greatest impetus in the Soviet Union. Stimulated by important role in the growth of hail. This view is
their own direct observations that the updrafts in supported by the following indirect evidence:
mature convective clouds tend to resemble a relatively
1) Heat balance considerations imply that hailstones
steady jet and that liquid water contents of 20 to
grown entirely within an accumulation zone would
30 g m- 3 appeared to exist in parts of these clouds,
contain a very high proportion of unfrozen water, and
Sulakvelidze et al. (1967) proposed that a diminution in
especially in the case of the Soviet model it is difficult to
updraft velocity in the middle or upper part of the cloud
explain how such hailstones can be consolidated to
results in the gradual accumulation of high concentra-
enable them to survive melting during their final descent
tions of raindrops generated by the Langmuir chain
below the ooc level (Browning, 1967).
reaction, where the terminal fallspeed of the drops
2) Many hailstones, especially large ones, develop a
becomes comparable with the updraft velocity. They
kind of lobe structure which, as pointed out by
also suggested that this accumulation zone may be
Browning (1967), indicates that the stones have grown
identified by radar since it was believed to correspond
in the absence of high concentrations of large drops.
to the region of high reflectivity located above the
3) The small size of the air bubbles in the cloudy-ice
WER. Sulakvelidze et al. obtained an expression for
portions and the dearth of large bubbles in the
the maximum attainable liquid water content in the
transparent-ice portions of many hailstones suggests
accumulation zone as a function of the vertical updraft
that they have grown dry in the absence of large
profile. Although their treatment was unrealistic in so
concentrations of large drops (Macklin eta/., 1976).
far as it was one-dimensional and failed to take into
4) A large percentage of hailstone embryos are
account the decrease in the concentration of raindrops
graupel. According to Knightet al. (1974), for example,
due to horizontal divergence above the updraft
the percentage of graupel embryos in northeast
maximum, Haman (1967) and Morgan (1972) have
Colorado hailstorms is as high as 80%. These are
shown that it is still possible in principle to account for unlikely to have grown within an accumulation
zone
the development of an accumulation zone by allowing containing large drops (Dye et a/., 1974).
for the recycling of raindrops up and down around the 5) There is evidence that the largest hailstones in
level of maximum updraft velocity. supercell storms achieve much of their growth while
The concept of the accumulation zone has attracted a
traversing the edge of the vault (see Section 7) in which
lot of interest since it forms the basis not only of the hail
case they probably would be growing in the presence of
growth model used by Sulakvelidze et al. but also of
essentially adiabatic concentrations of small cloud
the hail suppression technique that they have used with
droplets (Chisholm, 1970; Leighton and Rogers, 1974).
apparent success. They believe that an accumulati~n
This view of hail growth is diametrically opposed to the
zone constitutes a suitable environment for raptd
Soviet rain storage model and so Browning ( 1967)
hailstone growth provided it is situated within the
referred to it as the 'no rain storage' model.
supercooled region. They propose a mechanism for hail
6) At the other extreme from quasi-steady state
production in which a few large drops freeze spontane-
supercell storms, Battan (1975) describes an ordinary
ously at the top of the zone at temperatures between
multicell storm, for which he concludes that both the
-15 and - 22°C and then grow very rapidly accreting
unsteadiness of the individual updraft cores and the
supercooled drops as they fall down through the
location of the regions of maximum reflectivity outside
accumulation zone. By seeding this region, Sulak-
of the updrafts are inconsistent with the accumulation
velidze et al. claim that many more of the raindrops can
zone concept.
be frozen and converted into hailstone embryos which
7) The majority of hail growth models are able to
will compete for the available liquid water to the extent
account for the growth oflarge hailstones in realistically
that none grows large.
short periods without the need to invoke water contents
The question of the reality of the Soviet rain storage
in excess of adiabatic values (e.g. English, 1973).
model is not an easy one to resolve conclusively on the
basis of existing observations. Certainly there have
6. A model of the airflow and hail growth in an ordinary
been observations of high liquid water contents within
hail clouds but at the same time there are also multicell storm
observations of low liquid water contents in regions of In the preceding sections we have described various
hail growth (cf. Section 5a). However, there is a lot to features of the hailstorm structure in a piecemeal
be said for the view that, even though local accumula- fashion. In order to understand the growth of hail, its
tion zones may exist in parts of some clouds, these interaction with other cloud particles, its origin from the
probably embrace only a small part of the region where initial embryos, and also the possible effects of seeding,
important hail growth occurs. In other words, it appears it is necessary to picture the hailstorm as a whole. To do
that accumulation zones do not necessarily play an this properly we must make observations ofmicrophys-
K. A. BROWNING 27

ical and dynamical cloud properties simultaneously in
the same storm using many different observational
facilities. This requires a coordinated program of a kind
achievable only with a project of the size and diversity
of the National Hail Research Experiment (NHRE). In
this section and the following one, we summarize the
results of two rather comprehensive case studies
conducted by NHRE in the High Plains region of
northeastern Colorado.
The first case study, summarized in this section, is of
the so-called Raymer hailstorm; it corresponds to an
ordinary multicell storm, as described in Sections I and
3. In terms of the updraft intensity, the frequency of
development of new cells, and the maximum hail
diameter (15 mm), the Raymer hailstorm can be
categorized as being of moderate intensity.
content. Shortly after the appearance of the first echo at
7 km, it was found to contain particles 5 mm in diameter
in a number concentration of I m- 3 ; most of these
particles were frozen but a few appeared to be entirely
of water. The mature cell (n - I) contained particles
with diameter 8 to I 0 mm in concentrations of about
0.5 m- 3 at a height of 7 km. These particles, which
accounted for most of the maximum radar reflectivity,
were almost entirely of ice and were most abundant on
the rear edge of the updraft and in the downdraft.
Heavy rain (~100 mm h- 1 ) and hail (maximum
diameter I5 mm) reached the surface beneath the
mature cell, giving a total of I2 mm in 20 min. of which
5% was due to hail.
b. Hail growth and trajectories

a. Airflow and storm structure Hailstones have terminal fallspeeds V 1 of20 m s- 1 or

more and their production requires that the updraft in
Fig. 2I shows the model of the Raymer hailstorm as which they are grown shall have comparable speeds.
synthesized by Browning et al. (I976) using data from a However, in the early stages of its growth the fallspeed
quantitative radar (Chalon et al., I976), sub-cloud of a hailstone embryo increases only slowly and a
aircraft and a surface mesometeorological network steady strong updraft would carry it through the
(Fankhauser, I976), two Doppler radars (Strauch and supercooled zone of a cloud before it could attain a large
Merrem, I976) and a penetration aircraft (Musil et al., size (Ludlam, I958). A favorable growth regime can
I976). The figure is a vertical section along the storm's occur in at least two ways. One way is for an embryo to
direction of travel and it shows a sequence of four grow during an ascent on the edge of a quasi-steady
ordinary cells (n - 2, n - I, n, n + I) at different stages updraft where the vertical velocity is weak and then
of evolution. Each cell goes through a similar life cycle, after its terminal fallspeed has reached about IO m s- 1 ,
with new cells developing on the storm's right forward for it to get carried around to the inflow side of the main
flank (right side of figure) and old cells decaying on the updraft so as to enter the core of the updraft at a low
left rear flank. level. Such behavior is believed to be applicable to
The model can be interpreted in two ways. It can supercell storms (see Section 7). However, it is not
either be regarded as an instantaneous view of a typical applicable to the Raymer storm because individual
structure with different cells at different stages of updraft cells were short-lived and in any case there
evolution or it can be regarded as showing four stages in were no significant components of flow aloft capable of
the evolution of an individual cell. Thus Cell n, which causing the embryos to recycle in this way; neither does
had developed a "first echo" shortly before the time it seem likely that turbulence can have transferred
portrayed in Fig. 2I, began growing out of the shelf many such particles from the mature cells back into the
cloud as a distinct daughter cloud (n + I) about 10 min. daughter clouds against the mean flow. A second way
earlier. Cell n - I, which has almost reached its for the embryos to grow, exemplified in this case, is for
maximum reflectivity, is in its mature stage; it has a them to grow in a time-developing updraft. The
vigorous updraft but part of it has been converted into a daughter clouds which characterize such a multicell
vigorous downdraft. The decaying Cell n - 2 is storm are the favored regions for the growth of embryos
characterized by weak downdrafts at most levels, with because they do not develop into strong updrafts until
a residual weak updraft in places aloft. The time some time after the initial cloud formation.
interval between development of successive cells was In the Raymer storm the early growth of embryos
15 ± 2 min; it took 15 min for n to evolve to the stage of typically 5 mm in diameter from small cloud particles
development of n - 1, and similarly for n - I to evolve seems likely to have occurred within newly rising
to n - 2. The total lifetime of each cell was under 60 daughter clouds going from the n + I position to the n
min. position (see trajectory in Fig. 21). Further growth of
Measurements with the penetration aircraft at 7 km the embryos into hailstones which reached the ground
indicated that small droplets (diameter <50 JLm) were 10 to 15 mm in diameter occurred while the particles
present in the updraft regions in concentrations of (mean terminal fallspeed ~20 m s- 1) were essentially
about 1 g m- 3 • This is about a third of the adiabatic balanced within the updraft as Cell n moved into the
28 PART I: HAIL PHYSICS

14 THE RAYMER HAILSTORM 14

9 JULY 1973

12
=
-??wll •
no•- - -FLOW LE~NG
PLANE
""""""

12
(tNTO 1'•6C/ STORM
MOrtON
...J

"'EIO 5 "'s"'
?1'0· .... 10
E
.><:

1- 8 8ml"1
:I: .J6o•
!:2 T-28 TRACK
w
:r
6 6

4 4
SHELF CLOIID

2 2

100 100
SURFACE RAINFALL RATE,R mm/hr 50
50 mm/hr

-18 -16 - 14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6

DISTANCE AHEAD OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY km

s
... , \
\
....
__ ... --- ' '
/
/
VERTICAL
\ 10
''
AIR VELOCITY
(AS Ill"ASU!tl"D 1r r- 111

' -- ...
'
---
2.-------------------------------~---------------
, .. --"" ...... --""',,, -------------------------------,2 1

--- WATER CO TENT FOR

•. ~CLOUD DROPLETS< 50pm OIAM
gm-

... ' ~,<:~· · _: ·•

/
WATER CONTENT FOR
PARTICLES > 5 mm OIAM

FIG. 21. Schematic model of an ordinary multicell hailstorm near Raymer in northeast Colorado, taken from Browning et al. (1976). It
shows a vertical section along the storm's direction of travel, through a series of evolving cells. The solid Jines are streamlines of flow
relative to the moving system; they are shown broken on the left side of the figure to represent flow into and out of the plane and on the right
side of the figure to represent flow remaining within a plane a few kilometers closer to the reader. The chain of open circles represents the
trajectory of a hailstone during its growth from a small particle at cloud base. Actually the airflow in each cell has been drawn relative to the
individual cell and, since the developing cells n + 1 and n traveled more slowly (5 m s- 1) than either the mature cells (7 m s- 1) or the storm
as a whole (10 m s- 1), the streamlines in the young cells would have had a stronger component from the south relative to the storm as a
whole. This explains why in the model the trajectory of the growing hailstone crosses over the streamlines during its early growth as shown
in the figure. Lightly stippled shading represents the extent of cloud and the three darker grades of stippled shading represent radar
reflectivities of 35, 45 and 50 dBZ. The temperature scale on the right side represents the temperature of a parcel lifted from the surface.
Winds (m s- 1 , de g) on the left side are environmental winds relative to the storm based on soundings behind the storm. Surface rainfall rates
averaged over 2 min intervals during the passage of the storm are plotted below the section. The horizontal lineNS through the section at
about 7 km shows the track of the T -28 penetration aircraft, smoothed data from which are plotted at the foot of the figure. Although the T -28
data were not quite synchronous with the data in the vertical section, a comparison of the T-28 updraft velocity measurements with the flow
pattern in the vertical section shows that the agreement is reasonably good; however, the aircraft narrowly missed the core of the downdraft
which was as strong as 15 m s- 1 in places.

n - 1 position in Fig. 21. During their growth many of the near the edge of Cell n may have descended into part of
small hailstones probably will have remained within the the older updraft associated with Cell n - 1, just as the
same updraft cell as the cell moved through the storm stones in the unsteady hailstorm observed by Battan
system. On the other hand, hailstone embryos growing (1975) sometimes appeared to be falling from one small
K. A. BROWNING 29

updraft core into another. In either event the hailstones TABLE 3. Comparison of hail growth characteristics inferred
in two multicellular hailstorms.
at this stage were evidently encountering updraft
velocities sufficient to keep them aloft with only rather Raymer hailstorm Alberta hailstorm
minor fluctuations in altitude.
Size of largest hail Marble >Goltball
The final stage in the hailstone growth history was for
the particles to reach a concentration up to about Extent of hail Isolated Extensive
2 g m- 3 near the region in Fig. 21 where the reflectivity Interval between 15 min 5 min
exceeds 50 dBZ. It appears that precipitation loading and development of
successive cells
more importantly, mixing with low-Oe air began to have
Growth time for 10-15 min <5 min
an effect here, for the lower portions of the updraft were embryos (0--+ 5 mm diam) (0--+ 2 mm diam)
quickly converted into a downdraft, and the hailstones
Growth time for -13 min 6-12 min
cascaded rapidly to the ground with negligible further hailstones (5--+ 15 mm diam) (2--+ 10 mm diam)
growth in a region almost depleted of supercooled
Height of first echo 6.5-7.5 km MSL 6-10 km MSL
water.
Level of hail growth 8-10 km MSL 7-10 km MSL
Growth of the hailstones from embryos nominally 5 ( -20 to -30°C} ( -20 to -40°C}
mm in diameter to stones 15 mm across is believed to
have occurred over a period of 750 s as they were
carried more or less horizontally relative to the storm
growth rates were significantly greater for the Alberta
system through a distance of 6 km at an ambient storm, especially for the embryos, which developed
temperature between -20 and -30°C (Fig. 21).
within more frequent and vigorously rising daughter
According to Ludlam (1958), this period is sufficient to
clouds.
account for their growth in the presence of the cloud
In some recent calculations Young (197 5) has
water contents of about 1 g m- 3 measured by the
estimated the rate of seeding with silver iodide required
penetration aircraft.
to freeze different proportions of the cloud water at
The most difficult stage of growth to account for is the
different altitudes. He finds that the required seeding
development of the 5 mm embryos during the 15 min
rate depends very sensitively on updraft velocity,
period of initial growth of the daughter clouds. It has
suggesting that seeding is most likely to have a big effect
been suggested that the ice-crystal/graupel mechanism
when conducted at an early stage in the growth of each
is the dominant process in High Plains hailstorms (Dye
successive daughter cloud. Since the updraft is usually
et al., 1974) and this is consistent with graupel being the
already strong by the time the first echo develops and
predominant form of hailstone embryo in this and most
the embryos are already quite large by this time, it
other hailstorms in the area (Knight et al., 1974).
appears that seeding should be commenced sig-
Nevertheless the existence of a few hailstones with
nificantly before the time of the first echo. This
frozen-drop embryos, and also the presence of large
approach has been adopted by, among others, Schock
water drops in the region of the first echo, suggests that
(1971), Summers et al. (1972) and Abshaev and
some of the hail was formed on rare large droplets
Kartsivadze (1973). Abshaev and Kartsivadze recom-
(Danielsenet al., 1972). Perhaps these were due to a few
mend seeding near the leading edge of the radar echo up
large aerosol particles ingested at cloud base; such to 3 to 5 km ahead of it. In order to pin-point the precise
particles have been detected within hailstones and are
location of newly rising daughter clouds, however, it
probably due to wind-raised dust (Rosinski, 1966;
would be necessary to rely upon visual observations.
Rosinski and Kerrigan, 1969).
Visibility from the ground is often obscured and so
Although there remains some uncertainty about the
such observations are most reliably obtained from an
mode of growth of the initial hailstone embryos, there
aircraft.
can be little doubt about the following general
conclusions, that for ordinary multicell hailstorms (1)
the embryos originate in the young daughter clouds, (2) 7. A model of the airflow and hail growth in a unicellular
they grow into hailstones while suspended at high levels supercell storm
after the updraft in the daughter cloud has become a. Airflow and storm structure
strong, and (3) they follow a trajectory broadly
resembling that depicted in Fig. 21. Renick (1971), in a There have been numerous case studies of supercells
case study of a multicell hailstorm in Alberta, drew but we shall confine our attention to the results of a
similar conclusions. The storm studied by Renick was recent NHRE study by Browning and Foote (1976) in
much more intense than the Raymer storm and it is which the airflow and overall storm structure were
instructive to compare the hail growth characteristics established in enough detail to permit hail trajectories to
inferred for the two situations. As shown by Table 3, the be inferred with reasonable confidence. The storm
30 PART I: HAIL PHYSICS

analyzed by Browning and Foote, the so-called Fleming

Fig. 22a. Schematic model of the Fleming supercell hailstorm taken
from Browning and Foote (1976). (a) Plan view showing the principal
features of the airflow within and around the Fleming storm. Regions
of radar echo are shown hatched. Areas of cloud devoid of detectable
echo are stippled. The dotted circle represents the extent of intense
updraft in the middle troposphere. The thin lines are streamlines of
airflow relative to the storm. Some of the streamlines represent the
strong westerly environmental flow at middle-levels being diverted
around the main updraft. Others represent the low-level southerly
inflow toward the updraft (dashed lines) and also part of the high-level
outflow.
hailstorm, is believed to be representative of the
archetypal supercell portrayed in Fig. 9, with a
well-developed weak-echo vault.
A model of the Fleming hailstorm depicting the
airflow in relation to some of the radar and visual cloud
features is shown in Figs. 22a and b. Fig. 22a is a
plan view of the storm showing the flow pattern at
different levels. Fig. 22b is a vertical section along the
storm's direction of travel taken through the center of
the vault. The thermodynamic structure and environ-
mental winds were fairly typical of supercell situations
(cf. Section ld) although the winds aloft were even
stronger than usual. Environmental flow was such that
the low-level air fed the updraft from the storm' s front
(south) side, and the air retained this component as it
ascended in and near the vault (within the dotted circle
in Fig. 22a) . Aloft, the environmental flow relative to
the storm was strong from the west and, as shown in
Fig. 22a, this flow separated around the updraft to form
a stagnation point on the storm's right (west) flank. The
same strong westerly flow also caused air leaving the
summit of the updraft to form a vast anvil streaming
away to the east. Initially, air at the updraft summit
diverged to some extent in all directions, with some air
flowing around the summit via a southerly route, some
via a northerly route, and some (not shown in Fig. 22a)
leaving directly toward the east.
The storm maintained a single large supercell with a

ORTH SOUTH
DI RECTION Of
KM 1630- 1640 MOT TRAVEL Of STORM
MSL - - - CLOUD OOM£ -----~

15

10

0 10 20 30 -20 0 +20 +40

ENVIRONMENTAL WINO SPEED
DISTANCE ALONG 340-160 0EG (km) RELATIVE TO STORM l m s"'l

FIG. 22b. Vertical section showing features of the visual cloud boundaries of the Fleming storm superimposed on the radar echo pattern. The
section is oriented along the direction of travel of the storm, through the center oftiie main updraft shown in Fig. 22a. Two levels of radar
reflectivity are represented by different densities of hatched shading. Areas of cloud devoid of detectable echo are shown stippled. The
location of four instrumented aircraft are indicated, viz C-130, QA (Queen Air), DC-6 and B (Buffalo). Bold arrows denote wind vectors in
the plane of the diagram as measured by two of the aircraft (scale is only half that of winds plotted on right side of diagram). Short thin
arrows skirting the boundary of the vault represent a hailstone trajectory. The thin lines are streamlines of airflow relative to the storm
drawn to be consistent with other observations. To the right of the diagram is a profile of the wind component along the storm's direction of
travel, derived from a sounding 50 km south of the storm.
K. A. BROWNING
characteristic radar structure of the kind described in
Section 3c over a period of hours. There may have been
cloud turrets bulging from the edge of the main cloud
mass (Fig. 6) but there were no discrete daughter
clouds; instead the low-level air flowed directly into the
existing quasi-steady updraft. The most intense part of
the updraft was situated in the large vault (Fig. 22b) and
air entered it through a very low pedestal cloud situated
directly beneath (Fig. 7). Air feeding weaker updrafts in
the region labeled embryo curtain entered through the
shelf cloud whose base was at a higher level. The entire
inflow was derived from the lowest 2.5 km, the inflow to
the updraft core coming from cool moist air (with high
6e) in approximately the lowest kilometer. The main
updraft at cloud base reached a vertical velocity of 10 to
15 m s- 1 • It is not known what vertical velocity was
reached at the higher levels but it was sufficient
(;::::30m s- 1) to prevent moderate-sized hailstones above
the vault from entering it. The fact that the reflectivity in
the vault was everywhere less than 1 mm 6 m- 3 also
suggests that the updraft was strong enough to prevent
particles growing during their ascent from cloud base to
diameters much larger than 1 mm, assuming reasonable
concentrations of 10 to 100m-3 •
Hail up to the size of baseballs cascaded to the ground
in the region of high radar reflectivity on the northern
flank of the vault (labeled the hail cascade in Fig. 22b).
Occasionally, local regions of higher reflectivity could
be tracked within the echo above the vault and they
showed that the stones that fell in the hail cascade had
earlier crossed over or skirted around the top of the
vault while traveling in a general south-to-north
direction. The origin of the hail appeared to be within
the region identified as the embryo curtain in Fig. 22b.
The embryo curtain corresponds to what has
previously been termed the forward overhang (Brown-
ing and Ludlam, 1962) or the giant curved streamer
(Browning, 1965c). The echo corresponding to the
embryo curtain wrapped around the vault at levels
above 6.5 km MSL and was situated just inside the
boundary of the visible cloud. The embryo curtain is
thought to have consisted of graupel particles several
millimeters in diameter having a terminal fallspeed
(-10 m s- 1) comparable with the vertical air velocity
in their vicinity. The base of the embryo curtain did not
extend below 5 km probably because those larger
particles that fell to the lower tip of the embryo curtain
entered the region of stronger updraft near the foot of
the main updraft (Fig. 22b) and were then carried back
up on the edge of the strong updraft.
Browning and Foote (1976) found that local regions of
slightly higher reflectivity within the embryo curtain
could be tracked traveling cyclonically around the
embryo curtain, many of them starting in a location just
south of the stagnation point on the storm's right flank.
31
For much of the time these reflectivity 'hot spots'
traveled at the speed of the wind in the clear air just
outside the embryo curtain as measured by an aircraft
(C-130 in Fig. 22b) flying at 8 km MSL. Evidently,
therefore, although the undiluted updraft core in the
vault had a wind component predominantly from the
south, the weaker updraft in the region of the embryo
curtain was influenced more by the strong environmen-
tal wind blowing around the storm.
The lower tip of the embryo curtain was not far above
cloud base and, as pointed out by Young and Atlas
(1974) in another similar example, there is no question
of the particles in it having grown 'from scratch' during
ascent from cloud base. That is to say, the embryo
curtain did not correspond to a radar first echo. Rather,
the particles in the embryo curtain were circulating
around the front flank of the storm after having been
generated on the storm's right flank.
b. Hail growth and trajectories
The analysis of the Fleming storm led Browning and
Foote (1976) to envision a three-stage process of hail
growth, depicted schematically by Trajectories 1, 2 and
3 in Figs. 23 (a and b):
STAGE 1: Small particles are grown during a first
ascent in a region of rather weak updrafts
on the right-flank of the main updraft
(Trajectory 1);
STAGE 2: Some of these particles travel within weak
updrafts around the forward edge of the
main updraft (Trajectory 2) before entering
the core of the main updraft as embryos
with a diameter of several millimeters.
STAGE 3: Although there may be minor oscillations
owing to small fluctuations in updraft
intensity, these recycled embryos then grow
into hailstones essentially during a single
up-and-down trajectory (Trajectory 3).
This picture provides the physical basis for the injection
of embryos at the foot of a sloping updraft as postulated
in the hail growth models of Browning (1963) and
English (1973). A simple up-and-down trajectory during
the post-embryo growth is consistent with the results of
hailstone isotopic analyses by Knight et al. (1975) and
hailstone crystal and air bubble analyses by Macklin et
al. (1976).
Not all embryos entering the main updraft can be
expected to grow into large hailstones; many may
quickly encounter intense updrafts and be carried
above the -40°C ievel before they have had time to
grow significantly. This is particularly likely if the
updraft increases rather abruptly near the inner edge of
the embryo curtain. According to Browning et al.
32 PART I: HAIL PHYSICS

it is weakest, corresponding in this case to a location

EMBRYO
SOURCE
ON RIGHT
FLANK
OF MAl
UPDRAFT
·curtain and their trajectories will be limiting trajectories
STORM '
MOTION
t remain within the supercooled zone, these particles will
FIG. 23a. Schematic model of hailstone trajectories within a supercell
based upon the airflow model in Fig. 22. (From Browning and Foote,
1976.) (a) Plan view corresponding to Fig. 22a.
(1963), it may be the stringency of the requirement for
the terminal fallspeed of these embryos to match the
updraft velocity, rather than an overall scarcity of
embryos, that accounts for the paucity oflarge hail. The
terminal fallspeeds of the embryos are in general small
compared with the updraft velocity in the vault:
otherwise the vault would not exist. Thus the embryos
re-entering the main updraft at the lowest levels where
near the tip of the embryo curtain, are likely to have the
best chance of their terminal falls peed being matched
most closely to the updraft velocity. These particles will
stay longest in the growth region and will penetrate
farthest into the updraft core. Having done so, they will
continue growing faster than any others by virtue of
their exposure to adiabatic water contents, a favorable
situation not enjoyed by smaller embryos rising faster
above them which will encounter water contents
already depleted by growth of the larger embryos. As a
result of their rapid growth, the larger particles will tend
to remain on the inner (i.e., lower) edge of the embryo
constituting the vault boundary, as shown by Trajec-
tory 3 in Fig. 23b. These particles will reach their
balance level at the top of the vault. Provided they
put on a major increment of growth near their balance
level (Atlas, 1966) before descending relative to the
ground while all the time traveling with a component
toward the north in the tilted updraft. They will then fall
along the northern boundary of the vault where they
will continue to be exposed to nearly adiabatic water
contents as they approach the ground in the hail
cascade.
Embryos following trajectories farther from the vault
edge, as shown by the dotted trajectory in Fig. 23b, are
less favored for two reasons: They are more likely to be
carried above the -40°C level and hence rise above the
supercooled growth region as shown in Fig. 23b, and at

...
NORTH SOUTH
km DIRECTION OF
MSL
TRAVEL OF STORM

15 15

~
J: 10 10
(!)
w
I

~
. 5

40
DISTANCE ALONG 340-160 DEG. (km)
FIG. 23b. Vertical section corresponding to Fig. 22b. The echo distribution and cloud boundaries are as shown in Fig. 22. Tr~ectories I, 2 and
3 represent the three stages in the growth of large hailstones discussed in the text. The transition from Stage 2 to 3 corresponds to the
re-entry of a hailstone embryo into the main updraft prior to a final up-and-down trajectory during which the hailstone may grow large,
especially if it grows close to the boundary oft he vault as in the case of the indicated Trajectory 3. Other less favored hailstones will grow
a little farther from the edge of the vault and will follow the dotted trajectory. Cloud particles growing 'from scratch' within the updraft
core are carried rapidly up and out into the anvil along Trajectory 0 before they can attain precipitation size.
K. A. BROWNING
the same time they will be suffering from the depletion
of some of the cloud water by the other particles grow-
ing closer to the vault edge. List et al. (1968) give the
fractional rate of depletion of the cloud water content m
per unit height interval along a streamline as
(5)
where D, Nand V 1 are the diameter, concentration and
terminal fall speed of the hailstones and w is the updraft
velocity. Note that the rate of depletion is inversely
proportional to updraft velocity and so a strong updraft
favors hail growth by minimizing depletion. As
discussed in Section 8a, the low precipitation efficiency
of many supercell storms suggests that the overall
depletion may be rather small.
Although the air has a component of motion normal
to the ceiling of the vault, the trajectories of the
hailstones increasingly deviate from the air motion as
the stones grow larger so that, during Stage 3, the
trajectories are roughly concentric with the edge of the
vault. Thus the reflectivity of the echo bordering the
vault increases from south to north along the hailstone
trajectories. The hailstone trajectory, when seen in plan
view as shown in Fig. 23a, curves cyclonically as it
leaves the region of the embryo curtain (Portion of
trajectory labeled 2) and travels over the vault (Portion
of trajectory labeled 3). This curvature has been
inferred from the shape of the region of higher
reflectivity and from trajectories of reflectivity "hot
spots" in the Fleming and other supercell storms (Foote
et al., 1975). The change from a west-east to a
south-north direction is associated with the hailstones
traveling from regions on the edge of the updraft, which
are strongly influenced by the environmental flow,
toward the core of the updraft, in which there is a
predominantly southerly flow. The final turn of
Trajectory 3 toward the west as it travels to the north of
the vault is associated with the stones falling from the
updraft into the easterly winds characterizing the
downdraft on the northern flank of the storm.
We have chosen to refer to the hail growth as a
3-stage process; it might, however, be more appropriate
to refer to it as a 2-stage process. This is because,
depending on how close the Stage 1 trajectory is to the
western edge of the main updraft, it might be reasonable
to regard Stages 1 and 2 as occurring in the same kind of
environment. There can, however, be no question of
the reality of the major growth transition associated
with the injection of Stage 2 embryos into the foot of the
main updraft before the main Stage 3 period of hail
growth. This kind of model, with recycling embryos,
implies that a hailstone embryo should exist as a distinct
entity rather than as an arbitrarily-defined early stage in
33
the growth of a hailstone. Observations of hailstones
show that for large hailstones this is indeed the case
(Carte and Kidder (1966, 1970); Knight and Knight
(1970)). The need for a 2-stage growth process-with
the embryos growing within modest updrafts adjacent
to a strong updraft and a fraction of the embryos
entering the updraft core to continue their growth into
larger hailstones-was stressed in general terms by
Marshall and Hitschfeld (1973). Whereas they en-
visioned that the embryos were transfered from one
region to the other entirely through turbulent diffusion,
we have suggested that the transfer is achieved
essentially in a well-ordered and more systematic
manner. Either way, only a small fraction of the initial
embryos finds its way into the strong updraft and so the
resulting concentration of hailstones is correspondingly
small.
We now consider briefly some of the implications
which this model has for hail suppression by silver
iodide seeding. First of all, glaciation of all or part of the
main updraft appears to be ruled out on the grounds that
economically and logistically unfeasible seeding rates
are required when the updraft is strong (Young 1975).
Another approach might be to generate additional
embryos in the core of the main updraft in the hope of
creating enough competition for the available water
supply that no embryos grow into large hail. There are
major problems with this approach, too. As pointed out
by Morgan (1972), any embryos developed as a result of
seeding in the updraft core will ascend rapidly through
the supercooled region before they have grown big
enough to be beneficial competitors. Most will leave the
storm while still small via the anvil outflow (Trajectory
0 in Fig. 23); however, a few may follow the path of
some of the naturally generated embryos and find their
way into the embryo curtain as described above. Here
they may indeed compete for the available cloud water,
but, as explained in Section 8b, so long as the embryos
do not grow so large as to be able to fall into the core of
the vault and obliterate it, there will always tend to be
some particles near the edge of the vault that will grow
large by virtue of being the first to encounter the
undepleted cloud water in the vault. Yet another
seeding approach might be to try to promote competi-
tion during the growth of the embryos themselves by
seeding the embryo source region on the right flank of
the updraft, the objective being to decrease the size of
the largest embryos circulating within the embryo
curtain. If achieved, this would make the hail produc-
tion less efficient by causing the embryos to be lifted
more rapidly to the -40°C level; they would then cross
over the vault at levels where the updraft was glaciated
naturally and in so-doing substantially decrease their
time in the favorable growth region. The idea behind
this seeding approach is highly speculative, however,
34
100
·~ 0R )(R -.-.-~-:~ton ( 1966)
c
Q)
• Chisholm (1968)
o Auer 8 Morwitz (1968)
...
0
Q) x Chisholm (19"f0)
a.
+ Hartzell ( 1970)
>- • Fankhauser (1971)
(.)
z <> Morwitz ( 1972)
w • Foote 8 Fankhauser (1973)
(.)
'V Cholon et ol 119761
u.. 50
u..
w
z According to Browning and Foote (1976), inefficiency
2 in the production of precipitation can also be due to the
1-
<[
1-
a::
(.)
w efficiency in conversion of cloud water to precipitation.
a:
Q_
0
0 2 4 6 8 thereby converts some of the cloud water to precipita-
FIG. 24. Precipitation efficiency (ratio of rainout to water vapor
inflow) for High Plains convective storms as a function of vertical
wind shear in the layer from cloud base to cloud top. Known supercell
hailstorms are labelled S. Storms that produced rain only are labelled
R. (Adapted by J. C. Fankhauser from Marwitz, 1972d.)
and even if we knew the precise location of the embryo
source region, we must recognize that the outcome of
seeding a given supercell in this way would be difficult
either to predict or evaluate with any confidence.
Indeed, as discussed in Section 8b, there is even a
possibility of causing an increase in hail.
8. Some important concepts related to hail growth
a. Precipitation efficiency and depletion
There have been numerous studies of the ftuxes of air
and water vapor through convective clouds. The earlier
studies are summarized by Newton (1968). Values of
vapor influx in hailstorms range from order 1 to
10 kton s- 1 (10 9 to 1010 g s- 1) for individual storm cells.
According to Cooper et al. (1969), the most severe hail
tends to occur with the storms having the largest vapor
flux. Newton also gives values of the precipitation
efficiency, defined as the ratio of the surface precipita-
tion rate to the water vapor flux. According to his
summary, precipitation efficiencies vary widely, from
10 to 60%. More recent studies illustrate an even wider
range of variability, from as little as 2% for storms
studied by Marwitz (1972c) and Dennis et al. (1970) to
near 100%. Marwitz (1972d) and Foote and Fankhauser
(1973) show that in the case of High Plains storms there
is an inverse relation between the precipitation
efficiency and the environmental wind shear in the
cloud-bearing layer (Fig. 24). According to Fig. 24 the
least efficient storms tend to be supercell hailstorms;
the highly efficient storms tend not to produce hail. This
PART 1: HAIL PHYSICS
is not to say that supercells cannot produce heavy falls
of rain. On the contrary, their water vapor inflow is so
great that except in the cases of extreme inefficiency
(e.g. <10%) they can still produce considerable rain .
At least two causes of inefficiency can be identified.
As Marwitz (1972d) has pointed out, some inefficiency
can be due to a combination of strong wind shear and
dry environmental air which causes much of the
precipitation to fall outside the updraft and evaporate.
large size of the weak-echo vault in many supercell
storms. The very existence of a vault implies in-
Of course, hail growing on the border of the vault
accretes some of the supercooled cloud droplets and
tion; but, when the ceiling of the vault is close to the
-40°C level, the cloud water rising within that part of
the vault freezes homogeneously before it can be
converted to precipitation. In this way a significant
proportion of the cloud water in the updraft is able to
pass through the entire storm system without being
converted to precipitation. This means that there will be
very little depletion of the cloud water in the vault, so
that any hail embryos finding their way to the edge of
the vault will benefit from being able to grow in the
presence of a large cloud water content. If the shortage
of embryos entering the updraft is severe, there will be
inefficiency in the production of hail as well, in the
sense that only a small proportion of the cloud water
will be utilized by the growing hail.
An extreme example of this kind of inefficiency is
illustrated in the storm described by Marwitz (1972c).
In that case the vault extended to the top of the storm
and precipitation particles presumably did not pene-
trate far enough into the updraft core to be carried
across it as in Trajectory 3 in Fig. 23b. Many of the
particles may simply have recirculated within the
embryo curtain while traveling around the flank of the
updraft and so eventually will have fallen to the ground
ahead of the storm as hail of only moderate size.
Another, less striking, example of this kind of
inefficiency is described by Browning and Foote (1976).
b. Beneficial competition and unfair competition
A hailstorm is a finely balanced mechanism, con-
trolled by the interplay of the cloud dynamics and
microphysics, and poised between two extremes. At
the one extreme it may be efficient in converting cloud
droplets into rain and thereby produce so many
particles that they compete for the available cloud
water to the extent that no individual particle can grow
into large hail even though the updraft may be strong
K. A. BROWNING
enough to support it. Because it tends to inhibit hail
growth, this kind of competition is known as beneficial
competition. At the other extreme a hailstorm may be
inefficient in converting cloud droplets into rain so that
depletion in the main updraft is small and, provided at
least some embryos are able to re-enter the updraft,
these embryos will be able to grow into large hail. Most
storms fall between these two extremes. Of course the
precise storm behavior may depend on microphysical
factors such as the abundance of freezing nuclei and
cloud condensation nuclei but, on the whole, it seems
that supercell storms tend toward the latter behaviour
and ordinary multicell storms toward the former. As an
example of this distinction let us compare the two
storms described in Sections 6 and 7. In particular, we
compare the vertical section in Fig. 22b with that in Fig. 21:
In both cases the updraft enters the storms within a
weak echo region (WER). In the supercell the WER is in
the form of a vault bounded by an overhanging curtain
of echo containing embryos which have formed
elsewhere and have circulated around the edge of the
updraft so as to re-enter it on its forward side. In the
ordinary multicell storm the WER is not bounded; there
are no recirculating embryos. Instead the embryos form
in situ during relatively weak ascent on the leading edge
of the WER. The re-entering embryos in the supercell
grow into hailstones while crossing over the vault from
front to back. The newly grown embryos in a multicell
storm, on the other hand, grow into hailstones as they
cross over and then descend into the WER. Browning
and Foote (1976) argue that in a supercell the growth of
the hailstones on the edge of the vault is favored since
they are the first large particles to encounter undepleted
cloud water in the updraft, i.e., they compete unfairly
for the available cloud water in the updraft. To some
extent this may still be true of particles above the WER
in an ordinary multicell storm as they descend into the
WER. However, there is evidence that, whereas the
updraft in a supercell may be sufficiently strong and
continuous both to prevent cloud droplets attaining
precipitation size within the vault and to prevent
precipitation from entering it from its periphery, the
same does not necessarily apply in the WER of an
ordinary multicell storm. Perhaps because of rapid
growth on large aerosol particles or because of
turbulence bringing in particles from the side, addi-
tional precipitation particles sometimes appear beneath
the particles descending from the original first echo.
They can be seen, for example, as the extensive region
of relatively weak echo on the inflow side of the
high-reflectivity hailshaft in Fig. 21. (In supercells this
region is usually absent and there is instead an abrupt
transition from no detectable echo in the vault to the
high-reflectivity hail cascade bounding the vault.) The
presence of such particles, provided they are frozen,
35
will have the effect of depleting the cloud water from
which the original large embryos are able to grow.
These additional precipitation particles, being situated
close to where the updraft is converted into a
downdraft, are not themselves able to grow into hail
since they fall out of the updraft prematurely. Any
effect of this kind will of course tend to suppress hail
growth naturally by diminishing the ability of the
first-born embryos to compete unfairly for the available
water.
The concept of unfair competition is fundamental to
the growth of hail. The concept can be generalized by
thinking in terms of the small number of favored
particles that are the first to encounter undepleted cloud
water. There are abundant embryos present in most
clouds: if they were all equally favored none would
grow large. However, natural selection mechanisms
exist that cause a few of them to be specially favored. In
the archetypal steady state supercell with a large vault,
the 'favored few' are recycled embryos that are the first
in space to encounter the undepleted cloud water in the
vault: in the non-steady ordinary multicell storm the
'favored few' are those embryos that happen to grow
fastest so as to be the first in time to encounter the
undepleted cloud water in the daughter cloud. The
kinematical natural selection mechanism that limits the
number of embryos on the edge of the vault is probably
more effective in creating unfair competition than the
microphysical natural selection mechanism that causes
a few embryos to grow faster than their neighbors in
daughter clouds. This is because in the latter case there
are other particles almost as large as those comprising
the first echo that are growing beneath the first echo
region, whereas in the supercell case the favored
embryos on the edge of the vault have virtually no
competitors beneath them. One factor that will tend to
counteract this unfair competition in supercells is
turbulence. This has the effect of interchanging
particles on the edge of the vault with those suffering
from depletion farther from the edge. According to
Browning and Foote (1976), however, high-resolution
airborne radar measurements showed that the vault in
the Fleming storm was a fairly smooth-edged feature
with irregularities no larger than 500 m, suggesting in
that case that the turbulence may not have been very
important in this respect.
We have seen that some supercells exhibit a natural
selection mechanism that limits the number of embryos
entering the hail growth region such that depletion of
the available water does not become an important
factor. It appears from the low precipitation efficiency
of many supercells (Section Sa) that the natural
selection mechanism may so restrict the entry of
recycling embryos that the natural hail factory does not
operate anywhere near its full capacity (Hitschfeld,
36
(o)
0
FIG. 25. Schematic diagrams illustrating the distinction between (a)
vaulted supercells and (b) unvaulted supercells from the point of view
of hail growth. Both diagrams depict a vertical section along the
storm' s direction of travel (cf. Fig. 22b) . The extent of radar echo
(nominally 20 dBZ) is indicated in each case by hatched shading and
the location of the steady state updraft and inflow is denoted by a bold
arrow . The cloud outline is also sketched . The rectangular zone
between -15 and - 35°C represents the optimum region for the
growth of hard hail. The short arrows represent the trajectory of the
most 'favored ' particles situated at the lower boundary of the
overhanging echo. These particles spend a lot of time in the optimum
hail growth region in the vaulted supercell but not in the unvaulted
supercell.
1974). In such cases there is a danger that a modest
increase in the concentration of embryos due to
seeding, without a concomitant decrease in embryo
size, would actually increase the amount of hail
reaching the ground. Consider the extreme example of
the upper part of the vault extending through the -40°C
level. Here there is virtually no depletion of the cloud
water before it is lost to the hail process through natural
glaciation . If seeding causes any embryos to find their
way into the upper parts of such a vault, there can be no
question that the tendency would be to generate more
rather than less hail.
The cloud seeder aspiring to suppress hail is
obviously placed in a dilemma. His objective is to
pre-empt the development of a few favored embryos; to
this end there are some parts of the hail clouds
containing many embryos where he would like to
increase the number of embryos further so as to cause
beneficial competition, but there are sometimes other
parts of the cloud with a shortage of embryos where he
must strive to diminish the number of embryos. In
practice it may not be easy for him to do either very
effectively but, even if he can, he sometimes still has to
tread a thin line between two opposite requirements .
PART I : HAIL PHYSICS
c. Recycling ofprecipitation and some further thoughts
on hailstorm classification: vaulted and unvaulted
supercells
In Section 1 we proposed a primary classification of
storm cells into time-evolving ordinary cells and
quasi-steady supercells. In later sections we described
certain features of these cells as being characteristic.
For example we referred in Section 3 to the vault as
being a characteristic feature of supercells. This is
probably an oversimplification in that there appear to be
many storm cells that maintain a quasi-steady intensity
and structure and propagate steadily to the right of the
winds for tens of minutes yet exhibit no radar vault.
This leads us to suspect that the archetypal supercells
we have described are an extreme form of organization
in which the entry of precipitation particles into the
updraft core is more than usually restricted (Section 7)
and that there may be other categories of supercells in
which precipitation can re-enter the updraft and
prevent the appearance of a vault. This view is
supported by the analysis of Foote et a/. (1975) which
showed that the particle trajectories and airflow
configuration in an unvaulted storm were essentially
similar to those in vaulted supercells, except that some
particles were evidently large enough to be able to
penetrate into most parts of the updraft core.
The distinction between hail growth in vaulted and
unvaulted supercells can be understood by referring to
Fig. 25. This figure shows vertical sections through two
steady-state updrafts that are almost identical except
that in one case precipitation particles are (for some as
yet unspecified reason) able to enter a larger portion of
the updraft core so that, rather than a weak-echo vault
being formed, we have instead an unbounded weak-
echo region (WER). In both cases the particles on the
lower edge of the echo overhang are favored in the
sense that they are the first to encounter undepleted
cloud water in the weak-echo region. However,
whereas in the vaulted case the favored particles spend
a lot of time in the optimum hailgrowth region between
about -15 and -35°C, in the unvaulted case they
descend through the updraft below this region. In the
unvaulted case the favored particles tend to grow into
raindrops or very spongy hail and they also tend to
deplete the cloud water for those embryos higher up
that are at the right level to grow into hard hail. Thus the
unvaulted supercell in Fig. 25b exemplifies a form of
natural hail suppression. The extent to which hail
growth is suppressed depends on the concentration,
size-distribution, and phase of the particles re-entering
the updraft at low levels. In situ measurements in this
region are greatly needed to clarify this effect. If natural
hail suppression is incomplete, it may be possible to
achieve further suppression in an unvaulted supercell if
one can induce freezing among some of the
K. A. BROWNING
(a)
Fto. 26. Schematic diagram illustrating the dependence of precipitation recycling on the angle a between
the middle-level winds M and the low-level inflow L relative to the moving storm: (a) shows a plan
view and (b) a vertical section along the inflow direction.
intermediate-sized water drops that otherwise might
have been borne aloft and accreted by the hail. This
could be a situation where seeding in the main updraft
might be appropriate.
A proper study of the factors that influence the entry
of precipitation into the main updraft has not yet been
made. Nevertheless, we can anticipate that one
important factor may be the angle a between the
direction of the low-level inflow L and the direction of
the middle-level environmental flow M relative to the
storm (Fig. 26). When a is very large (inflow L 1 )
precipitation falling around the periphery of the updraft
core can hardly avoid entering the inflow near the foot
of the updraft in a position where the updraft is too weak
to prevent the particles penetrating to all parts of it (case
1 in Fig. 26b). When a is not too large (inflow L 2 ), and
especially if the mid-level flow is strong, precipitation
falling around the periphery of the updraft core may
spend insufficient time above the inflow to the updraft
for much of it to be able to descend into the updraft
core, in which case a vault will be produced (Case 2 in
Fig. 26b). The angle a depends on the storm velocity as
well as on the environmental winds. Strongly right-
moving supercells tend to have a near-optimum value
of a of about 90° and this is consistent with SR
supercells being so closely identified with the vault
structure. On the other hand, if a ~ 90°, as in the
storm discussed in Section 6, no recycling is likely
(Case 3 in Fig. 26) and this will lead to inefficiency in
both rain and hail production except where the updraft
is weak enough to give time for embryos to develop in
situ. Much more research is needed to confirm the
importance of a and also to find out what factors
determine the velocity of propagation of storm cells and
hence a.
Another factor influencing the entry of precipitation
into the updraft core is the shape, width, and intensity
of the updraft especially at low levels. If the updraft is
strong at low levels, the precipitation particles may
37
(b)
LIMITING TRAJECTORY, CASE 2
LIMITING
TRAJECTORY,
CASE I
NO
RE·ENTRY,
CASE 3
u L
recycle at the front edge of the updraft but the chance of
particles penetrating to all parts of the updraft core is
decreased. If, however, the updraft is weak at low
levels, some precipitation particles may fall through it
while other, lower fallspeed, particles will get carried
back up so as to enter all parts of the updraft. One
situation in which this may occur is when the downdraft
spreads a long way ahead of the storm at the surface
(e.g., Fig. 13) in which case the updraft starts ascending
far ahead, and rises weakly and at a small angle to the
horizontal as it nears the main region of updraft at
middle levels.
Foote et al. (1975) have described a supercell
hailstorm in which reflectivity 'hot spots' from the
embryo curtain (owing to precipitation particles a little
larger than average) were able to enter an otherwise
well-developed vault. This led them to the view that the
balance between updraft strength and particle terminal
fallspeed is sometimes a delicate one, and one that can
easily be imbalanced. Chisholm (1973), presenting
observations of the Centennial storm of 29 June 1967,
has also described transitions in the vault structure that
may be similar to those reported by Foote eta/. In these
cases, where the presence of the vault is "hanging in the
balance," it is possible that the artificial creation of a
sufficient number of large particles in the embryo
curtain could eradicate the vault with consequent
effects on the growth of hail as already discussed.
In summary, we have shown that recycling of
precipitation into the updraft is an important feature of
some hailstorms. Occasionally it gives rise to precipita-
tion entering almost the entire updraft so that no vault is
produced; at other times precipitation enters only parts
of the updraft and a vault is formed. The degree of
depletion of the cloud water at the optimum altitude for
hail growth is different in these two situations and it
seems, therefore, that supercells should be further
classified according to the existence, and the altitude of
the ceiling of the vault.
38 PART I: HAIL PHYSICS

9. Recommendations for further research approaches are particularly important for achieving
these ends: radar (dual-Doppler and perhaps dual-
We have remarked at intervals throughout this wavelength), penetration aircraft and simultaneous hail
review about the possibilities for suppressing hail. collection.
Weather modification efforts of all kinds, although The development of dual-Doppler radar technology
potentially very cost-effective, are also fraught with (e.g., Lhermitte and Miller, 1970) has greatly improved
difficulties. Hosler (1974), for example, has expressed the potential for studying storm macrophysics; how-
general concern that, even if one is able to use a seeding ever, we have as yet only scratched the surface in
technique to produce a desirable effect in one exploiting such data. We need to apply these techniques
parameter, there is always the risk of simultaneously more widely now as part of integrated observational
producing an undesirable effect in another. It may be programs. We need to exploit not only the velocity
that seeding to suppress hail would in some cir- information from Doppler radar but also the reflectivity
cumstances cause a decrease in rainfall. This would be information. The observed 3-dimensional distribution
most unfortunate since, according to Borland and of reflectivity tells us something about both the
Snyder (1974), the beneficial effects of a 20% decrease precipitation growth and the field of motion that
in hail damage would be negated by a mere 5% decrease generated it; indeed this was the basis of the present
in total rainfall during the early growing season in author's early attempts (1964, 1965c) to derive airflow
northeast Colorado and Nebraska. Then, again, there is models from ordinary radar data. We must combine the
the risk, to which we have already alluded, of silver information from the Doppler and reflectivity analyses
iodide seeding leading to an increase in hail from some to make self-consistent interpretations of particle
supercells. All of these considerations demonstrate that growth within known flow patterns. Chaff may need to
we must not go ahead with seeding indiscriminately. be used to study weak-echo regions of updrafts and
We must learn enough about the hail growth daughter clouds despite the fact that this will tend to
mechanisms to identify situations where seeding might obscure the outlines of the precipitation patterns.
have adverse effects. It is conceivable that statistical The kind of Doppler data we will increasingly be
seeding experiments conducted without regard to these using was exemplified in an earlier figure (Fig. 13). This
possibilities might be inconclusive because opposite showed a selection of airflow data taken from a more
effects may be achieved in different circumstances. In comprehensive four-dimensional (space-time) array of
any case, even if partial success in a particular method data obtained for an ordinary multicell hailstorm which
of suppressing hail were demonstrated statistically in a gave a little small hail. The vertical section in Fig. 13 is
given area, without a better understanding of the hail oriented in the plane of the principal circulation such
trajectories and the growth environments encountered that air is feeding the updraft from the right side of the
by the particles at different stages during their growth, diagram at low levels and is also leaving it toward the
we would still not know how to improve existing same side aloft. The chain of dots represents the
seeding techniques or how to adapt them to other kinds projection onto a plane of the calculated three-
of storms in other geographical areas. Thus it is not dimensional trajectory of a hailstone starting from an
surprising that the present demand for a hail suppres- embryo 1 mm in diameter and ending with a hailstone
sion technology is providing the major incentive for 1.6 em in diameter; the individual dots denote the
many of the present efforts to study the structure and position of the stone at 2 min and 1 min intervals on the
mechanisms of hailstorms. upward and downward portions of the trajectory,
Judged from the standpoint of our ability to apply our respectively. Many more trajectories have been calcu-
basic understanding to the development of useful hail lated as part of a collaborative project between NHRE
suppression concepts, it is evident that we still have a and the NOAA Wave Propagation Laboratory but this
long way to go in studying hailstorms. Our classification one has been selected because it gave rise to the largest
of hailstorm types, for example, is still very rudimen- possible hailstone. The present growth calculations
tary and is biased toward High Plains storms. We were made under the simple assumption of an adiabatic
recognize the distinction between two rather basic cloud water concentration. Later calculations should
forms of hailstorms (Section 1) but suspect that there simulate populations of particles that deplete the cloud
are important sub-categories of hailstorms that depend · water. By varying the liquid water content appropri-
on the details of the interaction between the airflow and ately it should be possible to model the precipitation
precipitation growth (Section 8). Our understanding of trajectories so that the hail follows paths and attains
these interactions is still largely in the realm of concentrations that are consistent with the observed
conjecture and the main thrust of our research must be reflectivity distribution. Some of the ambiguities in
to clarify them on the basis of integrated macrophysical specifying the particle sizes and concentrations can be
and microphysical observations. Three observational removed by using three Doppler radars (Bohne and
K. A. BROWNING
Srivastava, 1975). If dual-wavelength methods are
found to live up to their initial promise (Eccles and
Atlas, 1973), this approach could also be adopted to
help distinguish hail from rain within the cloud. Only
when we have abundant data ofthe kind hinted at in Fig.
13 shall we be able to model properly the interactions
between airflow and precipitation growth so as to
investigate quantitatively and realistically such impor-
tant mechanisms as water loading, depletion, competi-
tion, recycling and precipitation efficiency.
Our ability to acquire direct microphysical data on
the nature and distribution of the hydrometeors and
cloud water content in hailstorms is, and will remain,
inadequate for the forseeable future because ofthe need
to rely on hazardous aircraft penetrations capable of
sampling too small a part of the storm to give a truly
representative view. Nevertheless we must continue to
use such aircraft as the South Dakota School of Mines
armored T -28 to obtain as much of this kind of data as
possible, especially within storms being probed simul-
taneously by multiple-Doppler radars. We must also
concentrate on collecting data in the new updraft
portions of the storms where the hailstone embryos
develop and in these regions we can often exploit other
less robust aircraft provided they are well equipped
with cloud physics instrumentation. In an ordinary
multicell storm, the hailstone embryos are probably the
rare large particles that give rise to the first echo within
developing daughter clouds; we must measure the
cloud condensation nuclei and freezing nuclei entering
the storm at cloud base, identify the nature of the
particles forming the first echo, and find out what
factors enable the favored few embryos to grow faster
than their neighbors. In supercells we must again
concentrate on studying the nature of the embryos and
their growth environment but first we must identify
more precisely just where the embryo source region is
located.
The third important kind of study which we shall
mention here is the collection and analysis of time-
resolved samples of freshly fallen hail from storms
whose structure has simultaneously been probed by
radar and, if possible, by aircraft. As pointed out by List
(1965), the internal structure of a hailstone provides a
partial record of its growth history and trajectory. The
interpretation of the hailstone trajectories may perhaps
be strengthened by analyzing the hailstones for
different chemical tracers released in different parts of
the storm. As shown in Sections 6 and 7 of the present
review, information on the hailstone trajectories can
also be inferred from aircraft and radar observations of
the hailstorm. None of these data sources alone allows a
totally unambiguous interpretation but, analyzed to-
gether, it will be possible to limit the range of possible
interpretations.
39
In a nutshell, the philosophy for future studies of
hailstorms should be to obtain comprehensive and
multifaceted data sets which can provide a quantitative
basis for a new generation of more realistic numerical
models. Such an objective requires large and highly-
focused observational programs with stable long-term
funding. It also requires more time and resources than
are usually allowed for the difficult task of data
synthesis.
Acknowledgments. It is a pleasure to acknowledge
the stimulation of Dave Atlas, Director of NHRE
during 1974 and 1975 and of his staff, particularly in the
Macrophysics and Microphysics Groups under the
leadership of Brant Foote and Charlie Knight.
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 Response to "The Structure and Mechanisms of Hailstorms"
G.
National Center for Atmospheric Research', Boulder, Colorado
1. General remarks
Browning (1977) has done an excellent job of
describing what is known about hailstorms, emphasiz-
ing primarily the storm airflow patterns and the growth
of hailstones in relation to those patterns. The review is
authoritative, comprehensive, and lucid. In addition to
summarizing the large amount of material on the
subject, Browning has not hesitated in adding his own
valuable insights and interpretations.
There are, however, several aspects of the review
that are worthy of critical discussion, and this response
will address the review on the following three points:
1) that hypotheses are generally presented as if they are
more thoroughly verified than is actually the case,
2) that widespread use of the term "hailstone
embryo" by Browning and others can be misleading,
and 3) that the storm classification scheme is drawn
more sharply than the facts at hand appear to
warrant.
2. Confidence in the models
It is a shortcoming of this paper that having stressed
what is known, Browning has not similarly emphasized
areas of uncertainty. A discussion, for example, of the
level of confidence that can be attached to the various
theories of hail growth and hail suppression would have
been a valuable addition, adding more balance to the
review and tempering somewhat the tone of uncertainty
and of definite knowledge that is present. The review
tends to leave the reader thinking that a great deal is
known about the structure and mechanisms of
hailstorms. This is true in some respects, but not in
others. In fact, a good deal of our current knowledge is
peripheral, and deals with issues not very central to the
hail problem. Thus, firm evidence about the location of
hail growth regions and hailstone trajectories is very
limited. Microphysical measurements made directly in
the storm, for example, are extremely scarce and to
date have not been integrated with high resolution radar
reflectivity data and with three-dimensional air motion
patterns such as can currently be obtained with
multiple-Doppler techniques. As Browning points out,
it is exactly this sort of endeavor, leading to the
1 This work was conducted as part ofthe National Hail Research
Experiment, managed by the National Center for Atmospheric Re-
search and sponsored by the Weather Modification Program,
Research Applications Directorate, National Science Foundation.
BRANT FOOTE
development of comprehensive models based solidly
on observations, that has a chance of improving our
understanding of hail processes. Lacking a firm
empirical basis, present conceptual models necessarily
contain a large proportion of conjecture. No doubt in
treating a phenomenon as complicated as the hailstorm
a certain amount of indirect inference will always have
to be tolerated; indeed, some ''ruthlessness of generali-
zation" is advocated by Ludlam (1976) as a means of
spurring progress. However, a physical description of
the hailstorm adequate for making intelligent decisions
about such problems as hail suppression will surely
have to be based on data which impose more boundary
conditions than are now evident.
As an example of the limitation of our knowledge
concerning the essential features of hail formation,
consider the problem of the scales of convective motion
to which hail production is sensitive. Measurements of
storm structure, whether they deal with water contents,
air motion, or just radar reflectivities, always show
substantial fluctuations on relatively small scales (a few
kilometers or less). Is this patchy structure an essential
feature or merely incidental as far as hail formation
is concerned? The distinction could be extremely
important, particularly for hail suppression. Bold
assertions on both sides of the question have been made
(e.g., Barge and Bergwall, 1976; and Browning and
Foote, 1976), but the present evidence is not strongly
compelling either way. Lack of data concerning such
pertinent factors as hailstone trajectories is an obvious
difficulty, and more work is required. While in
reviewing the literature Browning has made no claim
that current theories are adequate, nevertheless a tone
of certainty remains in the article. The point here is
simply to reiterate strongly that the foundations for our
present theories of hail growth and hail suppression are
rather weak, that a number of alternative theories
cannot be ruled out, and that until more empirical
checking of important features of these theories is
carried out, they should continue to be viewed with some
skepticism.
3. Hail embryos
In discussing hail embryos, the first problem is to
define exactly what is meant. The term is generally used
to refer to that particle, of a size perhaps a few
millimeters to a centimeter across, that serves as the
accretional growth center for a hailstone. (Actually,
45
46 PART I: HAIL PHYSICS

Browning uses the term much more loosely to refer to create more embryos in the right location by seeding in
any particle of such a size which could serve as the the main hail growth zone (the strong updraft). On the
center for further growth if favorably situated in a other hand, if hail embryos tend to be graupel, and if
storm.) However, it should be realized that an embryo their further growth is predominately from supercooled
is more of a concept than something that can be given cloud droplets (as for example appears to be the case in
precise definition. Support for the concept proceeds northeast Colorado), then hail suppression may be
along essentially two lines. The first is that cross more difficult. In such a case the task of hail
sections through large hailstones virtually always show suppression according to the competing embryo hy-
a distinct, early growth unit at the growth center, pothesis would be to create more graupel in roughly the
as defined by the concentric layering. This piece of same location that they are growing naturally, presum-
evidence is combined with the following argument. ably in weak average updrafts where ice crystals have
There is a very large change in a particle's terminal time to rime. Only then would the added particles be
velocity as it grows, and while a large stone must able to follow trajectories similar to their natural
require a strong updraft to support it during its growth, a counterparts and have a chance to compete. The
smaller particle must form in relatively weaker up- question of where in the mature storm system the
drafts. Simple calculations show that in the presence of natural graupel embryos form is thus of the utmost
strong updrafts it is very difficult for a small particle to importance, and is largely unanswered.
grow significantly before being carried through the There can be no substitute for direct in-cloud
mixed-phase region of the cloud. Thus it has been observations in helping to answer such questions.
convenient to talk about hail growth as taking place in Theories such as those summarized by Browning that
two stages: growth of an embryo in relatively weak pinpoint the location of the "first echo" (when one is
updrafts, followed by transport of the embryo into a present) as being the most probable region for embryo
more vigorous updraft where it then grows large. formation may well be correct. They certainly have a
Though it is convenient to talk about two stages of ring of plausibility, but there are also plausible alterna-
growth, it should be emphasized that such a clear tives. Until more definitive data are in hand and more is
distinction may not always exist. For example, it has understood about selection mechanisms, the issue can
not been demonstrated that abrupt radial changes in the hardly be considered settled.
internal structure of a stone must be related to similarly The important additional question of how many
abrupt changes in growth conditions. Also, it may be embryos must be added to suppress hail depends
more fruitful to consider hail growth as taking place in critically on how many are present naturally, and here
three or even more stages (see, e.g., NHRE, 1975, p. again the measurements must be made directly. Particle
5ff). It seems best to view the embryo as simply a competition is clearly not an "all or nothing" process.
vaguely defined intermediate stage in the growth of the It always takes place to some extent, and it has not yet
hailstone. (It is an intermediate stage because the been determined what that extent is in hailstorms. It
embryo, a particle of millimetric size, must itself start should be noted that the questions being addressed here
growing on something.) Further work will be needed to are very fundamental questions of cloud physics, and as
determine whether hail embryos really exist as distinct such, one cannot expect the answers to be found very
entities; that is, as an early stage of hail growth both quickly or very easily.
meaningfully and distinctly separated from the final
stage. 4. Storm types
The important questions, then, are: how and where in
the storm do embryos form, and what processes With regard to the matter of storm classification, we
operate to select some particles to continue growing might first consider the basis for a useful classification
into hailstones while others do not? These are scheme. From the standpoint of understanding hail
particularly critical questions if one is interested in hail growth and hail suppression, it seems most reasonable
suppression, for it is in the embryo stage that modify- to classify storms on the basis of differences in the mode
ing hail formation might be possible. According to the of hail formation, or differences in the response of the
theory currently prevalent, one endeavors to suppress storms to seeding. These are essentially the criteria
hail by creating additional hail embryos which can limit considered implicitly by Browning in making the strong
one another's growth by using up the available water distinction between ordinary cells and supercells, a
(growth-limiting competition) and subsequently melt distinction which colors nearly the whole review. The
during fallout. If the liquid microstructure is dominated most recent impetus for differentiating storms in this
by big drops (in such a case the hail embryos might well way has come from two recent case studies which
be predominately frozen raindrops), one might usefully Browning summarizes in some detail, and from which
G. BRANT FOOTE
important generalizations have been drawn. Unfortu-
nately, as previously pointed out, the emphasis to date
has of necessity been more on physical insight than on
direct observations, and as such, the work is still not
quite satisfying. One wonders, for example, whether
the conclusion that there was no particle recirculation
of any consequence in the Raymer storm of9 July 1973
(Browning et al., 1976) will be borne out by further
work on multicell storms; or whether the hail trajec-
tories postulated for the Fleming supercell storm
(Browning and Foote, 1976) will be confirmed by more
detailed analysis of other supercells.
Perhaps the most important question, though, is how
often storms can be objectively classified as multicell or
supercell. In fact, many important hailstorms do not fit
either category very well, but rather have attributes of
both classes. It seems quite clear now that a continuum
of storm types exist. Rather than going through the
exercise of trying to place storms, sometimes ar-
tificially, into one of two categories, what is needed is a
fresh description of the phenomenon. Only after we
have learned more about storm evolution and particle
growth modes and trajectories, will it be constructive
to ask whether there are general features by means of
which useful classification schemes can be constructed,
and whether a simple dichotomy is adequate.
5. Conclusions
Browning's capability for synthesizing a variety of
seemingly disparate facts into a comprehensive de-
scriptive model is well reflected in this review. The
technique he employs puts special emphasis on using
physical intuition as the "glue" that holds the model
together. This method of "ruthless generalization" is
indeed quite powerful, and provides a much needed
47
framework for discussing complicated phenomena and
for iterating toward a firmer understanding. The present
review serves this purpose admirably for the case of
hailstorms, and should be an important reference on the
subject for many years.
The comments in this response represent a more
conservative description of our current state of
knowledge than that presented in the review. To
summarize, it appears to this writer that the validity of a
meaningful storm classification scheme has not yet
been demonstrated. The basic problem is a lack of
verified hail theories, and this lack is traceable primarily
to the difficulty of obtaining relevant field data.
Attempts to fit all storms into the simple multicell/
supercell categories, a trend noted for example in
recent international meetings, should be viewed skepti-
cally. Implications of the phrase "hail embryo" must
always be consciously realized.
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 A Review of Hailstone-Hailstorm Numerical
Simulations
HAROLD D. ORVILLE
Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, South Dakota School of Mines
and Technology, Rapid City, South Dakota

ABSTRACT

Various studies of hailstone growth and hailstorm development are classified into four categories utilizing the
concepts of coupled and uncoupled microphysics-dynamics and steady-state or time-dependent airflows. These
papers are reviewed as to their principal results and then summarized with respect to their conclusion about the
primary hailstone growth regions in a cloud, the important growth modes, the effect of stone recycling and tilted
updrafts, the occurrence of very large liquid water contents, the type of hail embryo, etc. Various problems of
numerical, dynamical, and microphysical origin are discussed. Prospects for successful and useful numerical
simulation of hailstorms and hailstone growth are considered to be good.

1. Introduction precipitation moving from one level to another and

loading the cloud updraft. These hail models are one- or
The growth of hailstones has been a topic of research
for over thirty years. The development and growth of two-dimensional at this stage of development; three-
dimensional models await larger computers.
hailstorms has been treated conceptually for at least as
This paper reviews briefly the main conclusions to be
long a time period. Only recently have the two topics
drawn from the uncoupled microphysics-dynamics
been treated quantitatively in a combined fashion, the
models and examines more closely the basis for the
development of one interacting nonlinearly with the
other in a time-dependent framework. Much work fully interacting type models and the conclusions to be
drawn from them. In addition, a brief resume of the
remains to be done, although a good start has been
primary problems and gaps in our knowledge concern-
made.
A listing of some of the pertinent work and a ing numerical simulations of hailstone and hailstorm
classification of the works are displayed in Table 1. development is given.
Here the classifications "steady-state" or "time-
dependent" airflow and "coupled" or "uncoupled" TABLE I. Some examples of hailstone and hailstorms studies. All
microphysics-dynamics are used to sort the various studies cited are concerned with some aspect of hailstone or hail
content growth.
papers on hailstone and hailstorm growth. In general,
the uncoupled frameworks deal primarily with Uncoupled Coupled
hailstone growth in simple kinematic flow models; no microphysics- microphysics-
dynamics dynamics
feedback of the hail mass or developing precipitation on
the dynamics is allowed. Normally a "closed box" II
concept is used within which hailstone growth is Steady-state Ludlam (1958) Simpson and Wiggert
calculated. Both steady-state and time-dependent flow airflow or Iribarne and dePena (1971)
quasi-time- (1960) Hirsch (1971)
fields have been treated. dependent, Das (1962) Cotton (1972)
The coupled microphysics-dynamics frameworks i.e., single Browning and Ludlam Kachurin eta/. (1973)
have been used in steady-state flow models. These also parcel, (1962)
closed-box- Hitschfeld and Douglas
use a "closed box" or single parcel concept, for type calcula- (1963)
although the growth of the cloud and precipitation mass tions Sulakvelidze et a/.
(1967)
is allowed to affect the atmospheric flow (updraft), List eta/. (1968)
there is no interaction of one portion of the atmosphere Gokhale and Rao (1969)
with another in the vertical, which severely restricts the Morgan (1972)
English (1973)
models in the simulation of precipitation, both in the
initiation and in the developmental stages. III IV
This last restriction is eliminated in the fully Time- Musil (1970) Ogura and Takahashi
time-dependent flow, coupled microphysics-dynamics dependent Dennis and Musil (1973) Wisner eta/. (1972)
models. Here interactions between the precipitation airflow Danielsenet a/. (1972)
Orville eta/. (1975)
and flow fields are allowed throughout the cloud, the

49
50
Concepts such as wet and dry growth of hail, the
origin of hail embryos, the representation of precipita-
tion by "bulk water" microphysical or "detailed"
microphysical techniques, the shedding of rain from
hailstones, the melting of hailstones, the formation of
precipitation screens, and the regions of primary
precipitation growth will be touched upon. The
principal conclusion of this review is that although
many theories and models of hailstone-hailstorm
growth have been proposed and seem reasonable, few
will survive in toto the circumspection of rigid
examination in more complete, fully interacting,
microphysical-dynamic numerical cloud models, al-
though most will have made positive contributions to
our intuition about hailstones and hailstorms.
2. Wet and dry growth and spongy growth of hailstones
Dry growth of a hailstone occurs when all of the
supercooled water and part ofthe ice crystals contacted
by the stone are accreted and the water frozen. This
essentially assumes collection efficiencies of one for
hailstones accreting supercooled cloud and rain parti-
cles. The collection of ice particles (crystals or
snowflakes) is at a lesser rate. Some authors assume no
collection, some a collection efficiency of 0.1 to 0.25.
The stone's temperature is usually considerably higher
than the environment during its rise in an updraft, but is
often not calculated.
Wet growth conditions exist when the hailstone is not
able to dispel all of the heat resulting from collision
with, and freezing of, supercooled droplets while
maintaining a temperature less than 0°C. The surface of
the stone reaches a temperature of ooc and becomes
wet. Shedding of excess liquid collected occurs, leading
to an efficient transformation from cloud water to rain.
The growth rate is calculated assuming a heat balance
condition which considers latent heat affusion released
in the freezing of supercooled water, heat conducted
from the stone to the atmosphere, heat used in
evaporation ofliquid from the surface, and heat used to
warm any collected ice crystals and supercooled water
to 0°C. The collection efficiencies of hail for ice crystals
is assumed to be 1.0 in wet growth.
In many cloud models, the numerical procedure is to
calculate both the dry and wet growth rates and then use
the smaller of the two rates.
Spongy growth assumes that the hailstone will retain
all, or nearly all, of the collected supercooled water
even if the stone is wet, an ice lattice or some other
means being used to explain the phenomenon. The dry
growth equation is then appropriate for calculating the
mass changes at all times. Additional equations to
calculate the temperature of the stone and the fraction
of water in a stone are then required and are described
PART 1: HAIL PHYSICS
in the more complete hailstone growth treatments
(English, 1973; Dennis and Musil, 1973).
Investigators have oscillated back and forth in their
use of wet-dry, or spongy growth equations. Currently
the wet-dry growth system seems the most appropriate,
observational evidence for shedding being obtained in
the laboratory and in the field (Musil et al., 1973). Some
calculations show wet growth of stones to near - 30°C
air temperature (Dennis and Musil, 1973), so that a
source of raindrops (transformation of the supercooled
cloud to rain in the shedding process) is found at high
levels in a cloud. More than likely, an intermediate
value for hailstone growth may be appropriate in many
situations.
The review by Macklin in this volume gives a more
complete description of hailstone characteristics
(Macklin, 1976).
3. Background studies-uncoupled microphysics-
dynamics models
a. Steady-state flow models
The primary contributions of the studies listed in
Category I above have been the development of the
hailstone growth equations and the calculations that
show the production of damaging hail in a single
up-and-down traverse of a hailstorm-size updraft with
near adiabatic values of liquid water content. In
addition, most or nearly all of the ideas currently in
vogue concerning hailstorms and hailstones and their
modification have been mentioned in these articles in at
least a qualitative, and sometimes speculative, sense.
The thrust of current research is to make more
quantitative the speculations of the past.
To Ludlam (1958) goes most of the credit for exposing
most of the ideas about the growth of hailstones in
hypothetical airflow models. His flow model was based
on the thermal theory (Ludlam and Scorer, 1953), and
although the hailstone growth equations were not
coupled with any dynamic equations, Ludlam was well
aware of the loading effects on the updraft and evoked
this concept, plus entrainment, as limiting factors on
the updraft. His exposition of dry and wet growth
equations (based on the work of Schumann, 1938), and
detailed discussions of the development of precipitation
in rising thermals, presage much of the current
discussions on multicell hailstorms. His comprehensive
treatment of seeding techniques, using the then existing
observational knowledge and tools, provides a noble
example to follow in today's reasoning and research
studies.
Ludlam's work showed that hailstone growth to
about 2 em diameter was possible under conditions that
admitted either dry or wet growth with only simple,
HAROLD D. ORVILLE
single, up-and-down traverses of the stone in a
steady-state updraft; attempts to grow bigger stones in
relatively simple but strong updrafts have usually
required recycling of the stones (Browning and
Ludlam, 1962) or "super adiabatic" values of liquid
water content and the conditions of dry or spongy
growth of the stones-no wet growth allowed, or
unsteady updrafts. A hailstone concentration of 1 m- 3
was considered a critical value, higher concentrations
leading to small stones which would melt by the time
they reached the ground.
Similar conclusions were drawn by Iribarne and
dePena ( 1960). They showed that certain particle
concentrations in steady-state updrafts severely limited
the growth of hail. For example, 10 hail particles per
cubic meter restricted the radius to 0. 7 em, a value
which is reduced by the cube root of 10 ( ~ 2) for each
factor of 10 increase in concentration.
Hitschfeld and Douglas (1963) and Sulakvelidze et al.
(1967) invoked very large liquid water contents (15 to
30 g m- 3 , 30 to 60 g kg- 1 ) and dry or spongy growth
to grow the large (5 em diameter or greater) hailstones in
a single up-and-down traverse in about 20 minutes. As
English (1973) points out, the 50 to 90% liquid fraction
of the hailstones calculated by Hitschfeld and Douglas
seems excessive for real hailstones, so the current
thought is that even if such high water contents
occurred in a cloud, the hailstones could not utilize
them for rapid growth. Also these large values of liquid
water content would have a devastating loading effect
on the updraft; this was certainly recognized by these
investigators.
The study of Das (1962) attempted to distinguish by
numerical experiment the effects of vertical shear of the
horizontal wind on the growth of hailstones. He used
wet and dry hailstone growth equations and an assumed
two-dimensional flow field (much as English did a
decade later). His primary conclusion was that shear
increased the frequency of hailstorms but decreased the
maximum size of the stones, the larger stones growing
in small shear situations.
Gokhale and Rao (1969) assumed spongy and dry
growth regimes (no shedding) for embryos (5 mm) that
originated above a steady-state updraft maximum and
grew as they fell through updrafts of 10 to 20 m s- 1 and
liquid water contents of 3-6 g m- 3 • In this way, stones
of 3-4 em diameter were grown within 20 minutes in the
-4 to - 30°C regions of a cloud. Most growth occurred
from the collection of supercooled cloud droplets of 60
to 200 JLm. These authors accepted the presence of high
liquid water content accumulation zones above the
updraft maximum but did not require them for hail
growth.
List et al. (1968) and Charlton and List (1972)
51
considered the growth of hail embryos (5 mm) in a
steady-state updraft that obeyed the relationship
pw = constant,
where p is air density and w is updraft velocity, which
gives a steadily increasing velocity with height. Their
conservation equations for hailstone number concen-
tration and cloud water content (adiabatic values with no
rain content considered) and dry growth equation
(implying spongy hailstones at higher temperatures) led
to large hail (3-4 em diameter in 20 minutes) in
concentrations of 0.5 to 2 m- 3 , but small hail which
would all melt at levels below ooc if the concentrations
were 10m-3 or more. They thought it unlikely that the
hail would deplete more than 40 to 50% of the cloud
water content. They pointed out that hail masses which
deplete a significant proportion of the cloud's liquid
water are capable of applying forces to the updraft
which are of the same magnitude as normal buoyant
forces and can easily lead to a breakdown of the
updraft.
In arguing for these simpler types of studies, Charlton
and List (1972) say
"However, a more complicated time-dependent model of two or
three dimensions, incorporating various hail formation theories,
could easily obscure, in a sea of variables and hypotheses, the
conclusions which can be made from this study about the effects of
hailstone size distributions."
Morgan's study (1972) obeyed the implication of the
above quote. He assumed a very simple, two-
dimensional, circular, steady-state velocity field and
superimposed on it the fall velocities of large drops and
hailstones to examine the resulting trajectories. The
growth of the particles was represented by changes in
fall velocity; no actual growth equations were solved.
Indications of rain accumulation zones, echo weak
regions, and hailstones with fall velocities about the
magnitude of the maximum updraft were found. He
suggested, as did Gokhale and Rao, hail embryo
formation in the large rain content region (but in
Morgan's case, the accumulation zone was to the side
of the updraft maximum, not above it).
More realistic, two-dimensional flow fields (still
steady-state) and ingenious dry hailstone growth and
heat balance equations were used by English (1973) to
see iflarge hailstones could be grown to compare with
observations of fallout in four hailstorms in Canada
(three in Alberta; one in Montreal). Idealized steady-
state, two-dimensional flows with slight updraft slope
(downshear) were fit to the atmospheric radiosonde
sounding and radar reflectivity factor data. Primary
growth of the stones occurred in the radar overhang
with fallout occurring in the "wall" region. Results of
calculations showed that hailstone sizes in general
52
agreement with the observations were possible (up to 6
em diameter in 20 minutes). Embryos of several
millimeters gave the largest hail in general. No shedding
was allowed in her calculations; the dry growth
equation was used to calculate accretional growth
rates, and a heat balance equation used so that the
hailstone could grow as a part ice, part liquid particle
if conditions were right. The fractions of coalesced,
supercooled water frozen and ice crystals bonded to the
stone were calculated with the use of the heat balance
equation.
This completes a review of those studies in Category I
above. To remain with the uncoupled studies, we move
on to Category III.
b. Time-dependent flow models
The studies of Musil ( 1970) and Dennis and Musil
(1973) were similar in some respects to English,
although only one-dimensional flow fields were assumed
in their studies. These authors considered a time-
dependent flow field on which to superimpose the
hailstone growth equations. In the 1970 study, wet and
dry growth rates were calculated and shedding of liquid
water during wet growth was assumed. An updraft
increasing with time was assumed. The 1973 study
assumed partial shedding using a heat balance equation
to keep track of the fractions of water in a stone, and
used this fraction to determine when a "slushy"
hailstone should break up, i.e., lose half of its liquid but
retain all of its ice. This later study also modified the
velocity profiles, modeling downdrafts in the lower
atmosphere in the later stages of the cloud's history.
Time dependency ofthe updraft had been recognized
as a possibility that would admit the growth of large
hailstones in adiabatic water profiles in a reasonable
time (Ludlam, 1958), but no reasonable way of
modifying the updrafts had been suggested. From
observations of hailstorms (Dennis et al., 1970), Musil
proposed that "feeder" clouds were an intimate part of
a hailstorm which provided a means of modeling
time-dependent updrafts. His profiles represented the
movement of ancillary updrafts into a main updraft
region. The hailstone embryos were assumed to be
large cloud droplets-in the 40 JLm to 100 JLm diameter
range. The primary result of this study was that
hailstones (2 em diameter) could be formed easily in
clouds with updraft maximum ranging from 12 to
greater than 25 m s-t, and with no more than adiabatic
liquid water content available.
The 1973 paper by Dennis and Musil considered 36
possible storm types defined by temperature and
updraft conditions. Their results showed calculated
stone diameters of greater than 6 em. The stones spent
considerable time above the updraft maximum and
PART I: HAIL PHYSICS
grew significantly in the descent portion of their
trajectory. The maximum updraft in a storm and the
temperature at which it occurred set an upper limit on
the size of hailstones which a storm could produce.
Temperature near - 30°C with updraft maxima near that
level gave maximum hailstone growth. Also they found
that even with spongy growth, high concentrations of
supercooled water did little to change the maximum
hailstone diameter. Their "breakup" mechanism may
have contributed to this result, although it agrees with
English (1973) who assumed no shedding.
Neither English nor Dennis and Musil treated
hailstone competition for the available water content,
as List and co-workers had done. These effects are
more completely treated in the models described in the
next section.
4. Coupled microphysics-dynamics studies
a. Steady-state, single parcel flow models
The water conservation equations in these models
can be treated by either "bulk water" or detailed
microphysical techniques. The bulk water microphysi-
cal models do not classify the precipitation particles
into distinct size categories, but instead assume that the
particle sizes for both rain and hail are continuously
distributed. One conservation equation is needed for
the rain field, one for the hail or precipitating ice field.
Kessler's (1969) work on water continuity demon-
strates the ideas.
The detailed microphysical techniques divide the
hydrometeor spectra into discrete size intervals and
solve a continuity equation for each size category and
each type of particle, solid or liquid. Berry's (1967)
work demonstrates this method for cloud and rain
particles; Danielsen et al. (1972) extended the method
to hail.
Most of the studies in Category II of Table 1 involve
models designed to test cloud seeding experiments;
consequently the models concentrate on the dynamic
effects of released latent heat of fusion. The paper by
Cotton (1972) touched on the hail problem only in his
treatment of the freezing of rainwater, which could
produce the embryos for hailstones. The dynamic
framework was the steady-state, or Lagrangian, quasi-
time-dependent, single parcel model of the Pennsyl-
vania State University group (Weinstein and Davis,
1968). Entrainment inversely proportional to cloud
radius was used. Although the growth of precipitation
was allowed to affect the updraft velocity of a single
parcel, there was no fallout from one atmospheric layer
to another, or advection of particles from one parcel to
another, so that the effect of precipitation on an updraft
column was not captured successfully. But that was not
HAROLD D. ORVILLE 53

the purpose of Cotton's study. Instead, he concentrated describe precipitating convective clouds is being
on the "glaciation" of the cloud model parcel treating, completed in a fairly methodical way.
in detail, 21 classes of ice crystals and the freezing of A characteristic of these models is their use of
rain, predicted to be in an inverse exponential size conservation equations for heat, momentum, and air
distribution so that only one class (one equation) for and water masses in completely time-dependent flow
rain needed to be treated. In terms of the above frameworks.
description of microphysical techniques, his was a Ogura and Takahashi (1971) did not concentrate on
hybrid model. Also to be noted is that in Cotton's the formation of hail in their simulation of a thun-
model, the frozen rainwater used the same intercept derstorm cell, but they did develop equations which
parameter (n 0 ) as the unfrozen rain, but different allowed for a precipitating ice stage. They used the
terminal velocity equations, giving larger velocities dynamic framework of Asai and Kasahara (1967),
than those for the rain content. Cotton found that the continuity equations for liquid water substances from
rate of glaciation in the cloud (here taken to mean the Kessler (1969), and their own development for ice
freezing of both nonprecipitating and precipitating processes. They assumed that the production of
particles) depended substantially on the presence of precipitating ice was proportional to the amount of
supercooled rainwater, which quickly contacted ice supercooled rain present. The nucleation of cloud
nuclei and supercooled droplets. droplets to form ice crystals was not considered. The
Simpson and Wiggert (1971) and Hirsch (1971) used terminal velocities of the ice contents were less than
dynamic models similar to Cotton. Regarding the those for the same rain content, so that essentially little
precipitating ice distribution, Simpson and Wiggert difference was assumed between rain and ice content
used an n 0 value for ice one order of magnitude greater size distributions. Sublimation (deposition) and melting
than that for rain and smaller terminal velocities, were considered, but the important process of accre-
implying more falling ice particles (perhaps snow) than tional growth of the ice particles was not. Hence, wet or
raindrops, whereas Hirsch used an n 0 value for ice taken dry growth modes for the precipitating ice was ignored,
from Wisner et a/. (1972), 2.5 orders of magnitude so that the model simulated an incomplete hail, or
smaller than that for rain, implying many fewer graupel, state. The authors make no claim otherwise.
precipitating ice particles than rain and larger terminal Their model showed some aspects of the three stages
velocities, which are more applicable to hail. of the life history of a thunderstorm as depicted by
Also, Kachurin et a/. (1973) appear to be using a Byers and Braham (1949), where a developing stage,
dynamic model similar to Weinstein and Davis (1968), mature stage, and decaying stage were observed. Being
with detailed equations for the prediction of glaciation one-dimensional, the model had a proclivity to go
and hail. They found that the growth of hail was highly steady-state and was quite sensitive to the conversion
dependent upon the cloud dynamics and could only be rate of cloud water to rain. Melting was shown to induce
fully investigated in non-steady-state clouds. Their a downdraft at the melting level and to strengthen the
calculations showed little competition for moisture downdraft lower in the atmosphere. Evaporation also
between hail embryos and ice crystals. The lowering of was shown to be important, its neglect reducing the
the cloud liquid glaciation level by artificial ice crystal
downdraft 40%, from 5 to 3 m s- 1 • Much other detail
seeding was important in reducing the number of was noted in the results, but not of direct interest in a
hailstones. review of hailstorms and hailstone growth.
The study by Wisneret a/. (1972) essentially took the
b. Fully interacting, time-dependent models microphysical treatment of Kessler ( 1969) as explained
The culmination of the hailstone and hailstorm by Srivastava (1967) and applied it to hail processes,
prediction models will come eventually through the including the hailstone growth concepts of Musil ( 1970)
fully interacting, microphysical-dynamic, time- in a one-dimensional, time-dependent framework. An
dependent cloud models of one, two or three entrainment concept that envisioned mixing inversely
dimensions. Studies in this class (IV) involving hail are proportional to radius, and directly proportional to the
relatively recent, but have more than fifteen years of slope of the cloud boundary, was used.
cloud dynamics and cloud microphysics numerical A key point in the hail or precipitating ice simulation
modeling experience to call upon. It is with these was the assumption of a modified Marshall-Palmer
models that the simulation of precipitation is more (1948) size distribution for the hail content. As
nearly correct, since the interactions of precipitation mentioned above, an n 0 for ice two and one-half times
with the airflow and with adjacent regions of the smaller than that for rain was used. This leads to
atmosphere are allowed. Problems still exist, and will mass-weighted terminal velocities of 10 to 24 m s- 1 for
be mentioned below, but the total framework needed to ice contents of 1 to 20 g kg- 1 • Compared with the total
54
number of raindrops, relatively few ice particles per
cubic meter were represented by this artifice, the
greatest number still being graupel size. The microphys-
ical processes of autoconversion (Berry, 1968), cloud
liquid, rain and hail accretion, Bigg (1953) freezing of
rain to form hail (a probability concept based on the
drop size and temperature), dry growth of hail, melting,
and evaporation were simulated. No cloud ice was
simulated in the 1972 paper but has been included in the
model and discussed briefly in a paper by Orville et al.
(1975).
Wisner et al. (1972) attempted to show the impor-
tance of the precipitating ice stage to the life history of a
cloud, and to describe a fairly economical way of
including a precipitating ice stage in a cloud model that
could be easily extended to multidimensional, Eulerian
type cloud models. Their results showed a steady-state
cloud with no fallout if the hail process were excluded.
The inclusion of the hail process led to a model cloud
which grew, formed precipitation which fell out, and
then dissipated. The heat released by the freezing of the
rain and the hail accretion of supercooled rain and cloud
led to nearly a 1oc increase in temperature excess of
cloud over the environment. The sweepout of the
supercooled water by the precipitating hail screen
offered an alternative way to realize the latent heat of
fusion of the supercooled water in an updraft, another
way being the direct freezing of the individual droplets.
The fall of the hail past the melting level and subsequent
melting of the hail were shown to be crucial to the
formation of the downdraft; none occurred when the
melting process was turned off. The collection of warm
rain and cloud was an important source of melting.
When evaporation was eliminated from the model, the
maximum downdraft decreased from 8 m s- 1 to
4 m s- 1 , and the downdraft formed much less precipi-
tously.
Results also showed that the melting of hail produced
a source for further hail growth. This happened because
the terminal velocity of the rain that was shed was less
than that of the falling melting hail and thus was carried
back into the cloud into supercooled regions where it
froze to form new hail particles or was accreted and
frozen to the existing hail content. Ludlam (1958) had
pointed out such a possibility.
These authors' main conclusion was that
". . . hail plays a very important role in the chain of events leading
to precipitation at the ground. It provides a mechanism for
transporting water down through strong updrafts (> 10 m s- 1), and
into the lower levels where its weight and the cooling due to its
melting are important factors in the initiation of a downdraft. The
evaporation of the rain formed by the melted hail then influences
strongly the characteristics of the downdraft.''
These results, although perhaps valid for a particular
class of storm (those ''single puffers'' with precipitation
which falls back through the updraft) are strongly
PART I: HAIL PHYSICS
affected by the one-dimensional, dynamic framework
of the model. For example, the same atmospheric
conditions were used by Orville and Sloan (1970) in a
two-dimensional cloud model without ice processes,
but with rain processes simulated. Rain formed and fell
out in a reasonable period of time instead of reaching a
steady-state condition with no rainout through the
updraft as in the one-dimensional model.
The above models used highly parameterized "bulk
water" microphysics to represent the cloud and
precipitation fields. As mentioned above, an alternative
to this procedure is to divide the hydrometeor spectra
into many categories and solve conservation equations
for each type and size category of hydrometeor.
Danielsen et al. (1972) used this procedure in a
one-dimensional, Lagrangian, multi-parcel, dynamic
framework. They considered 40 categories of hy-
drometeors; the first 31 applied to both liquid and solid
particles (a size range from 2.5 JLm to 2.5 mm radius),
and the last 9 categories to ice only (to a maximum size
of 2.0 crri radius). The hydrometeors grew from an
initial assumed distribution by condensation and
sublimation, and stochastic coalescence and experi-
enced freezing, via a probability function based on size
of the drop and temperature in the cloud (Vali, 1968).
The breakup of drops was also simulated. No melting or
shedding or wet growth was simulated. No graupel
simulations were attempted. The emphasis was on hail
growth and not complete hailstone-hailstorm interac-
tion.
The simplified dynamic framework involved a series
of bubbles or parcels released from the ground at
regular intervals (30 seconds). Fallout from one parcel
into another was allowed, but the overtaking of one
parcel by another was not simulated, the parcels at the
top being removed from the model. Entrainment was
allowed to affect the updraft velocity more than the
other fields. This represented an attempt to simulate
pressure perturbations which affect the profile of the
updraft as well as the updraft maximum (Holton, 1973).
The one-dimensional models typically yield updraft
maximum within the last 25% of the updraft depth,
whereas observations (e.g., Marwitz, 1973) and mul-
tidimensional cloud models, which include pressure
effects, indicate the updraft in a more parabolic shape,
the _updraft maximum nearer the center of a cell (e.g.,
Orville and Sloan, 1970).
Radar reflectivity factors were calculated from the
size distribution and used to compare with observa-
tions. Space-time conversions were made to allow the
one-dimensional simulations to approximate the two-
dimensional observational picture of a storm in June
1970 in northeastern Colorado.
Several important conclusions resulted from this
study. Growth of significant hail was accomplished
completely below the updraft maximum from an
HAROLD D. ORVILLE 55

initially broad cloud droplet spectrum. Hailstones of 1 dimensional cloud model, no rain or hail falling through
em diameter in concentrations of 1 m- 3 , and of 2 em the updraft and no "non-equilibrium" storage of
diameter in concentrations of about 0.01 m- 3 , were precipitation occurring to erode the updraft. A two-
formed in 22.5 minutes. Certainly bigger stones in dimensional cloud model simulation 1 of this same case
greater concentrations would have been produced, but showed rain and hail in the upper cloud regions recycled
the calculations were aborted as soon as downdraft was in the two-dimensional flow into the updraft near the
initiated, due to the authors' thought that the one- cloud base and a breakdown of the updraft with a
dimensional dynamic framework could not simulate a resultant rainout (negligible amounts of hail reaching
downdraft realistically and the lack of any melting the ground).
process in the microphysics. Danielsen et a/. (1972) The sequence of events showed clearly the interac-
found that the radar reflectivity factors were dominated tions of the various cloud and precipitation fields and
by the ice particles; first, the hail embryos (frozen rain), the atmospheric flow field. No echo weak vault
and then the hailstones. They found that raindrop occurred because of a preexisting precipitation screen
breakup was unimportant in a cold base cloud case, at the 5 km level which served to accrete the cloud
freezing occurring before breakup could occur, and that water content as the updraft strengthened and pene-
even in a warm base cloud case that it was not important trated higher into the atmosphere. The temperature
to hail growth because breakup occurred at low levels within the storm were raised about 1 km during
elevations where the rain could accumulate and weaken the severe convection portion of the storm.
the updraft and fall out instead of being carried up to the
hail growth regions, as occurred in the Wisner et a/. 5. A summary of primary results
(1972) study. They noted that the results are highly
A reading of the above articles leaves one with the
dependent on the updraft strength and profile. Also, the
impression that much has been accomplished and yet
tail of the cloud droplet spectrum was extremely
much remains to be done. The theoretical and
important in the solution, a narrow distribution leading
observational work have progressed at a similar pace.
to insignificant hail production, much he same effect
Because laboratory studies of hailstones have been
as with a strong updraft. The calculated precipitation
relatively inexpensive, the equations regarding
distributions differed markedly for rain and hail
hailstone growth have been developed and used
showing many fewer precipitating ice particles than
extensively in simple flow models. Cloud models which
raindrops.
treat hailstorm phenomena have only recently
These authors concluded that hail growth in the
emerged, depending on increased computer capacity
model depended primarily on the updraft speed, initial
and better cloud, precipitation, and environmental
droplet distribution, surface water vapor mixing ratio,
measuring devices.
and the height above cloud base at which drops of a
What conclusions emerge from the above studies? It
given size begin to freeze. These factors affect critically
appears that hailstone growth can occur in nearly any
the time available for the hail to grow. A weak updraft
region of a cloud between the 0 and -40°C isotherms. In
allows early fallout and little growth; a strong updraft
strong updraft situations (>25 m s- 1) the regions
sweeps the embryos into the anvil above the -40°C
above and to the sides of the updraft maximum will be
level where little growth can occur. Danielsen and
favorable for growth. In weak updrafts ( < 15 to
others suggest that an updraft range of 15 to 30 m s- 1 is
25 m s- 1 ), the regions within the updraft toward the
appropriate for the most efficient hail productions.
upper portions will be favorable until the updraft is
The paper by Orville et a/. (1975) analyzed the
killed because of precipitation loading, the updraft to
conditions for the formation of steady-state updrafts in
occur again to the side of the old updraft region.
the Wisneret a/. (1972) model modified as noted above.
Consideration of the results regarding the various
A severe storm sounding was used as input conditions.
growth modes suggests that large hailstones will grow in
Early conversion of the cloud water to rain led to
a wet growth mode to temperatures as low as - 30°C and
loading of lower portions of the updraft by rain, the
as high as 9 km in the atmosphere. Certainly wet growth
formation of appreciable amounts of hail by freezing of
is prevalent below 6 or 7 km and above the ooc level. A
the supercooled rain, and subsequent loading of the
relationship between the temperature at the updraft
middle and upper portions of the updraft, so that the
maximum and the updraft maximum indicates that
updraft eroded throughout the cloud depth and the
hailstone growth is maximized near -30°C. Considera-
cloud dissipated, yielding a vigorous rainshower. This
ble shedding ofliquid water by the hailstones may occur
loading of the updraft occurred with air speeds
in the middle levels of the storm.
everywhere greater than the mass-weighted terminal
Recycling was not a necessary condition for the
velocities of the precipitation contents.
A delay in the conversion of cloud water to rain 1 Using the cloud microphysical framework of Wisner eta/. (1972)

resulted in a steady-state solution in this one- and the two-dimensional dynamics of Orville eta/. (1972).
56
growth oflarge stones. The models produced hailstones
ranging from 2 em to 6 em diameter within 20 minutes in
single traverses of the updraft, but either time-
dependent airflows or spongy growth, or sometimes
both, were assumed.
Hail and rain contents of 10 to 15 g kg- 1 occurred in
some fully interacting, time-dependent cloud models,
representing the storage and accumulation of precipita-
tion, but the extreme values of 30-60 g kg- 1 postulated
by some authors have not occurred yet in the numerical
simulation. Also note that the accumulation zones were
composed of either solid or liquid precipitation.
Echo weak vaults occurred in some of these same
simulations but could be quickly extinguished by
preexisting rain or ice particle sheaths and by recycling
of the precipitation into the updrafts.
Few numerical results on the effects of tilted updrafts
on the hailstone growth are available in the fully
interacting, time-dependent models. Some simpler
models postulate a tilt which leads to favorable
hailstone trajectories through an updraft and the
formation of large hailstones in good agreement with
hailstone sizes measured at the ground. These results
remain to be duplicated in more complex, time-
dependent numerical models.
Most of the uncoupled microphysics-dynamics mod-
els imply little sweepout of the cloud water by the hail or
breakdown ofthe updraft would occur. This is, in fact,
what happens in the fully interacting, time-dependent
models with many small stones and graupel particles, as
well as rare big stones.
The question of sweepout efficiency is important to
hail suppression theories. If the hailstones and pre-
cipitating ice are efficient at depleting the supercooled
water, then creating more embryos will lead to
competition among the stones and smaller stones. But
the question of eventual suppression is tied up in the
dynamics also, so no more of the discussion here.
The hail embryos varied from large cloud droplets,
40-50 J.Lm diameter, to 5 mm raindrops in the various
models. No model simulated the Bergeron process to
produce graupel as hail embryos. The level of origin of
the embryos varied from above the updraft maximum to
cloud base. Only the Danielsenet al. (1972) cloud model
considered the complete spectrum in both liquid and
solid form and with interacting dynamics. As long as the
flow is allowed to vary in an arbitrary way, hail embryos
of any size can produce hail of any size, although
restrictions on the time available for growth obtained by
observations do not allow complete freedom in the
uncoupled microphysics-dynamics studies. The de-
pendence of hailstone size on the initiating embryo is
obvious in the studies. Most often (but not always)
bigger embryos produced bigger hailstones.
These published studies do not reveal much about
PART I: HAIL PHYSICS
hailstorm structure, since numerical models of the
updrafts in one- and two-dimensional, fully interacting
microphysical-dynamic, time-dependent models are
very recent. The loading of the updrafts, their growth to
high levels, and overshoot in the tropopause is evident
in some models, but mostly in the unpublished
literature at this time (primarily American Meteorologi-
cal Society meeting preprints). Also the presence of
negatively buoyant subcloud updrafts, which have
been characteristic of many recent observations, are
evident in the numerical simulations. The next few
years should produce several papers regarding the
numerical modeling of such storms.
6. Problems and prospects
A recent review of theoretical cumulus dynamics by
Cotton (1975) presents many of the problems of cloud
modeling. It is a rather pessimistic review but does
represent a viewpoint held by many dynamicists and is
very well written. The summary is concerned mainly
with warm cloud microphysics and dynamic cloud
models of one, two, or three dimensions. I refer the
reader to that review for a complete discussion of the
problems in cumulus modeling.
This present section will concentrate mainly on those
problems associated with hailstorm and hailstone
modeling, a topic touched upon only lightly by Cotton.
For the purposes of this section, we will discuss
problems as they relate primarily to numerical,
dynamic, and microphysical portions of hailstone-
hailstorm modeling. A final section will involve the
prospects for theoretical treatment of the hail problem.
a. Numerical problems
The uncoupled microphysics-dynamics models pre-
sent few numerical problems. Ordinary differential
equations are involved in all except the detailed
microphysical studies.
There are several problems connected with a
decision as to whether to model hailstorms and
hailstone growth in either one-, two-, or three-
dimensional dynamic frameworks. Not the least of the
problems is the amount of computer power available to
the scientist. Whereas a one-dimensional model with
very detailed microphysics is within the capabilities of
the largest computers today, either two- or three-
dimensional problems with detailed microphysics in a
time-dependent airflow framework would stretch the
biggest computers now available. Therefore, a com-
promise normally has to be made with respect to the
amount of detail in the microphysics or the dimensional-
ity of the model. The one-dimensional, time-dependent
cloud models have been used extensively in the past
few years, as the papers reviewed in this study have
HAROLD D. OR VILLE
indicated. Their tendency to approach a steady state
with no fallout when strong updrafts are indicated
means that a very unstable atmospheric sounding may
produce less precipitation from such a model than a
more stable day, which is in opposition to what is
normally observed. To counter this defect, I believe
that means should be developed by which one-
dimensional models can be carried to a fairly standard
point (e.g., maximum cloud top height) and then the
dynamics essentially turned off to allow the precipita-
tion to accumulate and fall out of the cloud. These
models might then have some utility as forecast models
because of the rapidity with which they can be solved.
Two- and three-dimensional cloud models have none
of the steady-state problems of the one-dimensional
models because the precipitation can slip over the sides
of the updraft. The two-dimensional models give the
researcher a choice of axisymmetrical or slab symmet-
rical geometry. The axisymmetrical models are re-
stricted to a single cloud and, hence, cannot simulate
the interactions between clouds. However, some of the
dynamic aspects of these cloud models seem to be more
realistic than slab models, so a particular type of cloud,
the "single puffers," may be better simulated by these
models. On the other hand, the two-dimensional slab
symmetry models allow ambient airflow and multiple
cloud formations, giving some insight into the interac-
tions between clouds and are useful for that type of
study. Also, they allow a sloping updraft which may be
of importance to the formation of hail in certain
situations. The three-dimensional models are ex-
tremely time consuming and use large amounts of core
storage, so at this time are not considered serious
contenders for hailstorm and hailstone simulations in a
variety of atmospheric conditions.
The grid resolution for numerical simulations of
hailstorms is not well defined at this time. Most cloud
models use grid intervals of 100 to 400 m distance. Some
consider a little larger grid than this, but the above
values are considered a maximum size for many of the
microphysical processes and, in fact, may not be fine
enough for some of the cloud particle fields. However, a
hailstorm complex is a system approaching mesoscale
proportions in many situations, so several to's to even a
100 km domain is sometimes needed to simulate the
horizontal extent of the hailstorm and its environment.
The vertical extent should extend to at least 20 km.
Hence, very many grid points are needed to represent
the domain of a hailstorm and the current, fastest,
biggest computers (of the Control Data Corporation
7600 class) are being pushed to the limit for these
simulations.
Related to the domain problem is the problem of
boundary conditions, particularly the lateral bound-
aries. In my opinion, neither constant boundary
57
conditions nor periodic boundary conditions are
satisfactory for the simulation of hailstorms. The
growth of a large convective cell within the model
domain has a strong influence on the airflow in the entire
region and tends, during the storm's acceleration
phase, to draw on a large mass of air to sustain the
hailstorm. The flow rates are 1011 to 1012 g s- 1 in large
hailstorms approaching 1013 g s- 1 ; if this flow is re-
stricted because of constant or periodic boundary
conditions, then the storm will shut itself off because of
the requirements for recycling flow within the domain
of the model. The return flow from the upper or middle
atmospheric regions outside the cloud results in the
injection of warm, dry air into the storm and a
weakening of the model storm. Hence, methods need to
be found for representing time-varying boundary
conditions that can respond to the intensive convection
within the model domain. Moving the boundaries far
away is a partial solution, but even then constant
boundary conditions may not suffice. Interaction with
mesoscale or larger scale synoptic models might give a
technique for the time variation of the boundary values
which would allow greater flux into the hailstorms and
might also help in modeling mesoscale effects on the
hailstorm.
The problems of the nonlinear advection terms and
turbulent mixing in the dynamic models have been
covered quite well by Cotton in his review. Cotton
(1975) is concerned with the possibility that a substan-
tial fraction of the total energy, heat and mass fluxes in a
cumulus, might be in the fluctuating scales as opposed
to the mean fields, and consequently would require very
complex equations to treat; i.e., very fine grid scales
and numerous additional equations to treat the
Reynolds' stress and eddy transport terms. We await
observational evidence to determine if this is so in a
hailstorm, or at what scale it is important, and if the
added complexity in numerical models gains materially
over cruder methods of modeling the turbulent trans-
port terms in hailstorm simulations.
A final numerical problem relates to the representa-
tion of the cloud and precipitation particles by detailed
microphysical equations which may be sensitive to the
numerical techniques. These techniques can cause a
spreading of the particle spectra. Because the develop-
ment of the hailstones depends on the formation of a
few large cloud droplets and precipitation embryos,
then numerical spreading of the spectra could have an
unwanted, unrealistic effect on the development of
hailstones in the hailstorm models. Thus, further
development in the numerical techniques are needed.
b. Dynamic problems
The question of the importance of the dimensionality
of a hailstorm is pertinent here. Most researchers would
58
not deny the strong influence of rotating, fully
three-dimensional airflows on the life history of a storm
system or on the growth of precipitation within the
system (Browning and Foote, 1976). The question is
whether anything less than fully three-dimensional
models can lead to helpful simulations and aid in
hailstorm forecasting and in finding solutions to the
many hailstorm research problems. The many papers
reviewed in this article reveal much insight gained into
hailstone growth in airflows much less complex than
those in a real hailstorm. It seems a wise course of
action to capitalize on the current computer capabilities
to simulate as much of the hailstone-hailstorm growth
problem as possible to gain what further insight we can
into the problem, being careful not to draw unwarranted
conclusions caused by model limitations. The fully
interacting microphysical-dynamic, hailstone-hail-
storm models in one or two dimensions appear to be
the optimum models to use now, with important
exploratory studies begun in three-dimensional
dynamic cloud models.
The importance of mesoscale interactions with
hailstorms and with large precipitating storms cannot
be overestimated. Most heavy rains and hailstorms
require support on the mesoscale to exist. Only recently
have models on the mesoscale been developed and
none of these treat, in an explicit fashion, the
development oflarge clouds, rain, and hail. The effects
of mesoscale convergence on the formation of convec-
tive clouds have been shown by Chang and Orville
(1973) to encourage convective development in a
tropical atmosphere, so that without the larger scale
convergence clouds of only 2 km depth or so formed,
whereas with mesoscale convergence superimposed on
the initial conditions of the model, clouds of over 7 km
depth formed. Further clarification of these effects is
needed.
It is important that representative soundings be used
to initialize the models. Since the hailstorm has such a
strong effect on its environment it is unclear how
proximity soundings can be used in one dimensional
models to simulate hailstorms. Local scale multi-
dimensional models that can represent mesoscale
convergence effects, heating of the boundary layer, and
general modifications of the atmosphere because of
frontal passages or other mesoscale effects, might be
able to simulate atmospheric conditions which can
evolve into a hailstorm environment and allow proper
simulations of the storm. Some type of interaction with
the boundary layer seems important, especially in light
of the many observations in the past that show a
low-level inversion capping the boundary layer and the
control that this has on the release of intensive
convection later in the day. The important boundary
layer work being done by Deardorff and associates in
PART 1: HAIL PHYSICS
this area will be important to the proper solution of this
problem (Deardorff, 1972).
As mentioned in Section 4, the updraft profiles and
maxima can be characteristically different in one-
dimensional and in two-dimensional models because of
the different treatment of pressure effects in the two
types of models. Also, there is an indication of a
difference in the updraft strengths in three-dimensional
and axisymmetrical models compared with two-
dimensional, slab symmetric models, so observations
and modeling work have to go on here to resolve the
differences. The strong interactions which occur
between the precipitation fields and the vertical
velocities make the accurate simulation of these fields
very important.
The updraft and cloud and environmental airflows are
influenced greatly by the creation and accumulation of
water masses in the cloud. Probably only in fully
three-dimensional models will this interaction be
satisfactorily simulated, but perhaps much insight can
come through careful studies in one- and two-
dimensional models. Both models tend to simulate
clouds that are snuffed out by the development of
precipitation. In particular, the two-dimensional mod-
els will often recirculate precipitation into the updraft
loading it over the depth of the cloud. Two-dimensional
cloud models with vertical shear of the horizontal wind
sometimes give results of sloping updrafts (upshear)
that allow "long lasting" clouds to develop (Takeda,
1971; Orville and Kopp, 1976). Also, three-dimensional
models provide a mechanism whereby the fallout can be
shunted away from the inflowing air and away from the
updraft that should lead to long lasting sloping updrafts.
Of course, it is extremely important to conduct
studies which try to determine how sensitive the
dynamics of these models are to the microphysics and
to changes in the microphysics. It would be extremely
important to know if indeed the echo weak regions
characteristic of so many hailstorms could be effec-
tively eliminated by a change in the microphysical
characteristics of the updraft through seeding by
hygroscopic particles or other means.
c. Microphysical problems
There are several problems to be worked upon which
are basically microphysical. Current models commonly
use either detailed microphysical or bulk water
techniques to simulate the equations for continuity of
the water mass fields. Of primary interest to many
hailstorm models is the spectrum of hail produced by
the clouds, so it seems that most hailstorm models
must, at the least, simulate the detailed microphysics for
several categories of hail particles. Whether such a
detailed treatment of the liquid spectrum is also
HAROLD D. ORVILLE
required is not so clear. Studies of models and
comparisons with the observations would be very
helpful in determining how much detail in the hail and
rain spectrum can be parameterized and what would be
the best way to do this parameterization. Quite possibly
a hailstorm model with detailed microphysics in the hail
and bulk water microphysics in some of the liquid
precipitation forms would be acceptable, but research
is needed to determine whether or not this is so. Also, it
is important to keep in mind that the models are used for
different objectives, often for forecasting, or for field
use, or for purely theoretical reasons. The more
research and cloud physics oriented objectives will
require a more detailed microphysical treatment than a
field-related forecast model, which possibly could
operate with a bulk water microphysical framework.
If the bulk water simulations are to be useful they
should be compared with the results of the more
detailed microphysical treatments. One way of doing
this is to calculate the various production terms for rain
and hail as predicted by the bulk water conservation
equations and compare these transformation rates with
what actually would be predicted by the detailed
microphysical models. A prediction of the Wisneret al.
( 1972) microphysical equations is that the accumulation
of supercooled rain by hail is greater than the accretion
of supercooled cloud by the hail. A comparison of this
prediction with a detailed microphysical study in a
closed box framework indicates that for certain
moderate values of rain content, and low values of hail
content, the prediction holds, but for other combina-
tions of rain and hail, the prediction does not hold. The
basic reason for the increased efficiency of rain
collection by hail is the added capture cross-sectional
area supplied by the raindrops. Some modification of
this cross-sectional area is possible to bring the
accretion rates of hail for rain in the bulk water
technique closer to those accretion rates predicted by
the more detailed microphysical model.
A crucial microphysical problem in the development
of hailstones is the question of the origin of the embryos
(Knight and Knight, 1970; Macklin et al., 1960; List et
al., 1970; Macklin, 1976). Some think that the embryos
are primarily graupel, only the larger stones having
embryos which are frozen rain particles. The storms in
northeast Colorado look to be ones which have graupel
in them as the primary hailstone-forming embryo.
Closely associated with this problem are the charac-
teristics of the cloud droplet distribution, which as
Danielsen et al. (1972) showed is so important to the
formation of significant hail. Very detailed, closed box,
microphysical studies have great potential for showing
the important physical processes leading to the
formation of hailstone embryos and the formation of
cloud droplet distributions.
59
Certainly this also implies a need for observing these
distributions as well as for observing hail and precipitat-
ing ice distributions which are crucial for verifications
of detailed microphysical models and for the proper
parameterizations in the bulk water type microphysical
models.
The rain and precipitating ice fields have been shown
in the models to form precipitation screens which are
quite effective in sweeping out smaller particles before
they can be carried into the cloud anvil. This type of
process can lead to accumulation zones of both liquid
and ice and is closely related to the problem of what
percentage of the sweepout of cloud or rain is
accomplished by the hail field. Many investigators
consider a very small percentage of sweepout by the
hail, and yet bulk water models that simulate a
precipitating ice field show high percentages of the
cloud water and rain being accreted by the hail or
precipitating ice fields. Part of the problem might be
resolved by calculating just how much of the super-
cooled liquid is swept out by those particles in
concentrations less than 1 m- 3 , which might represent
more closely the hail particles.
It seems that the amount of shedding from hailstones
growing in a wet growth regime may be an important
component in transforming cloud water to rain in a very
efficient manner and at levels throughout a broad
portion of the cloud. Cloud volumes composed of
precipitating ice, rain, and cloud water are more
efficient regions for the formation of precipitation than
are portions of the cloud which include precipitating ice
and cloud liquid only, or rain and cloud liquid only.
Consequently, the frequency and extent of wet growth
of hail and the efficiency of the shedding process are
important points to quantify.
Closely related to this is the melting effect of stones
which has been treated fairly well theoretically. Proper
expressions for the melting of the hail are important if
accurate predictions of hail spectra at the ground are to
be made. The bulk water models appear to melt the hail
mass too rapidly, probably because the parameteriza-
tion does not consider melting rates of various portions
of the spectrum, but only that of the median diameter
stones.
The numerous closed box-type studies which utilize
detailed microphysical processes need to be assessed
for their general application to the precipitation
initiation process. There is no doubt in my mind that
these types of studies are extremely valuable for sorting
out the physics of the graupel and cloud distribution
formation processes, but their further application to
precipitation simulation is limited, I believe.
There is a need for the determination of the
parameters commonly used in the equations for the
growth of hailstones and the development of hail
60
content in bulk water models. Some of these parame-
ters such as drag coefficients, collection efficiencies
and particle terminal velocities are also used in the
detailed microphysical studies. A determination of the
hailstone distribution parameter n 01 is important as it
enters into the equations for mass-weighted terminal
velocities and many of the precipitation production
terms and is also related to the radar reflectivity factors
which are predicted by the bulk water models (Smith et
al., 1975). It appears that the hail distributions
measured by Federer and Waldvogel (1975) and Battan
(1973) give rise to values for n 01 about three to four times
10-4 cm- 4 ; this will give radar reflectivity factors of 70
dBZ or more in severe storm simulations which may be
too large.
The current, fully interacting, two-dimensional cloud
models which include hail predict the primary growth
regions of hail to be above and to the sides of strong
updraft situations and in the center and the upper parts
of the weaker updrafts. The detailed and bulk water
microphysical models need to be examined more
carefully to generalize the results as much as possible.
A recent workshop on numerical cloud models
sponsored by the Bureau of Reclamation (Silverman et
al., 1976) presented results of a comparison of several
one- and two-dimensional cloud model results with
observations from radar, raingages and hail pads in the
St. Louis area. The results were encouraging, the major
precipitation processes being delineated by the models
and total rain and rain rates and hail predicted
satisfactorily by some of the models. More workshops
like this are needed with better and more complete data
sets provided to fully check the models.
Finally, after the models are developed and tested as
much as seems prudent, experiments need to be run
which seek to answer the question, "Can hail be
suppressed and, if so, with what effect on the rain?"
d. Prospects
I view the prospects for successful and useful
numerical simulation of hailstorms and hailstone
growth as good. This is a propitious time for working in
the field. The many excellent studies that have gone on
in the past lead to a number of theories which can either
be substantiated or discounted as the observations and
theoretical work continue.
In his 1958 paper, Ludlam said
"It has not so far been possible to make for a hailstorm, or any other
storm, a complete account, one which would describe and relate air
motion and particle spectrum in space and time from before the
formation of clouds until their eventual dissolution and precipita-
tion."
Developments in computers and modeling make this
statement less accurate today.
PART I: HAIL PHYSICS
The formulation of very detailed microphysical
models and local circulation airflow models which
involve the evolution and dissipation of clouds, rain,
and hail make the day ever closer when fairly realistic
simulations of hailstorm systems will be accomplished.
The model results, coupled with the many observations
from radar, aircraft, and ground systems, will aid
immeasurably our understanding of these storms and
should make more quantitative and successful our hail
suppression attempts.
Acknowledgments. This research was performed as
part of the National Hail Research Experiment
managed by the National Center for Atmospheric
Research and sponsored by the Weather Modification
Program, Research Applications Directorate, National
Science Foundation, Contract C760 and Subcontract
S5011.
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Holton, J. R., 1973: A one-dimensional model including pressure
perturbation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 101, 201-205.
Iribame, J. V., and R. G. dePena, 1960: The influence of particle
concentration on the evolution of hailstones. Nubila, 5, 7-30.
Kachurin, L. G., N.D. Artemyeva, A. T. Kartsivadze, S. Stoyanov,
and M. Tekle, 1973: Simulation of the natural process of hail
formation and its transformation under the influence of artificial
crystallization. Proc. WMO!IAMAP Sci. Conf. Weather Mod-
ification, 231-23 7.
Kessler, E., Ill, 1969: On the Distribution and Continuity of Water
Substance in Atmospheric Circulation. Meteor. Monogr., No.
34, 84 pp.
Knight, C. A., and N.C. Knight, 1970: Hailstone embryos.!. Atmos.
Sci., 27, 659-666.
List, R., J. Cantin, and M.G. Ferland, 1970: Structural properties of
two hailstone samples. J. Atmos. Sci., 27, 1080-1090.
- - , R. B. Charlton, and P. I. Buttuls, 1968: A numerical experiment
of the growth and feedback mechanisms of hailstones in a
one-dimensional, steady-state model cloud. J. Atmos. Sci., 25,
1061-1074.
Ludlam, F. H., 1958: The hail problem. Nubila, 1, 12-95.
--,and R. S. Scorer, 1953: Convection in the atmosphere. Quart. J.
Roy. Meteor. Soc., 79, 317-341.
Macklin, W. C., 1977: The characteristics of natural hailstones and
their interpretation. Meteor. Monogr, No. 38, 65-88.
--,E. Strauch, and F. H. Ludlam, 1960: The density of hailstones
collected from a summer storm. Nubila, 3, 12-17.
Marshall, J. S., and W. McK. Palmer, 1948: The distribution of
raindrops with size. J. Meteor., 5, 165-166.
Marwitz, J. D., 1973: Trajectories within the weak echo regions of
hailstorms. J. Appl. Meteor., 12, 1174-1182.
Morgan, G. M., Jr., 1972: On the growth of large hail. Mon. Wea.
Rev., 100, 1%-205.
Musil, D. J., 1970: Computer modeling of hailstone growth in feeder
clouds. J. Atmos. Sci., 27, 474-482.
61
- - , R. A. Schleusener and W. R. Sand, 1973: Analysis of data from
T-28 penetrating aircraft. J. Appl. Meteor., 12, 1364-1370.
Ogura, Y., and T. Takahashi, 1971: Numerical simulation of the life
cycle of a thunderstorm cell. Mon. Wea. Rev., 99, 895-911.
Orville, H. D., W. J. Chang and F. J. Kopp, 1972: A numerical
experiment on the simulation and modification of hurricane
rainband clouds. Rep. 72-13, Inst. Atmos. Sci., South Dakota
School of Mines and Technology, 80 pp.
--,and F. J. Kopp, 1976: The numerical simulation of a hailstorm.
Preprints Int. Cloud Physics Conf, Boulder, Amer. Meteor.
Soc., 349-356.
- - , - - , and C. G. Myers, 1975: The dynamics and thermo-
dynamics of precipitation loading. Pure App. Geophys., 113,
983-1004.
- - , and L. J. Sloan, 1970: A numerical simulation of the life history
of a rain shower. J. Atmos. Sci., 27, 1148-1159.
Silverman, B. A., D. A. Matthews, L. D. Nelson, H. D. Orville, F. J.
Kopp and R. D. Farley, 1976: Comparisons of cloud model
predictions: a case study analysis of one- and two-dimensional
models. Pre prints Int. Cloud Physics Conf., Boulder, Amer.
Meteor. Soc., 343-348.
Simpson, J., and V. Wiggert, 1971: 1968 Florida seeding experiment:
numerical model results. Mon. Wea. Rev., 102, 115-139.
Smith, P. L., Jr., C. G. Myers, and H. D. Orville, 1975: Radar
reflectivity factor calculations in numerical cloud models using
bulk parameterization of precipitation. J. Appl. Meteor., 14,
1156-1165.
Srivastava, R. C., 1967: A study of the effects of precipitation on
cumulus dynamics. J. Atmos. Sci., 24, 36-45.
Sulakvelidze, G. K., N. Sh. Bibilashvili, and V. F. Lapcheva, 1%7:
Formation of precipitation and modification of hail processes.
Gidrometeor., Leningrad, 208 pp. [Israel Program for Scientific
Translations, Jerusalem.]
Takeda, T., 1971: Numerical simulation of a precipitation convective
cloud: the formation of a "long-lasting" cloud. J. Atmos. Sci.,
28, 350-376.
Vali, G., 1968: Ice nuclei relative to formation of hail. Sci. Rep.
MW-58, McGill University Stormy Weather Group, 51 pp.
Weinstein, A. 1., and L. G. Davis, 1968: A parameterized numerical
model of cumulus convection. Rep. II, NSF GA-777, Dept.
of Meteor., Pennsylvania State University, 43 pp.
Wisner, C., H. D. Orville, and C. G. Myers, 1972: A numerical model
of a hail-bearing cloud. J. Atmos. Sci., 29, 1160-1181.
 Response to
"A Review of Hailstone-Hailstorm Numerical Simulations"
GRIFFITH M. MoRGAN, JR.
Illinois State Water Survey, Urbana
Orville has done an excellent job of presenting a
synopsis of developments in the field of numerical
modeling of hailstorms and hailstone growth. He has
treated with clarity a very complex maze of literature.
This represents a real service to students of the subject
at all levels of involvement. The comments which
follow are in no way intended to detract from it, but to
add a little emphasis of my own.
If there is a lack in this review it is one of a limited
historical perspective, probably due to the title
constraint: "numerical simulation". The title not-
withstanding, it is a little unsettling to read a review of a
subarea of cumulus convection without finding names
such as Stommel, Malkus, Squires and Turner and
others, or mention of such earlier developments as the
pseudo-adiabatic process (a numerical model) or the
slice method (a very advanced model treating as it does
the updraft and the response of the environment to
convection).
The opening line which sets the age of the study of
hailstorms and hailstones at "over thirty years" is a bit
jarring to the reader with a historical bent. Storm
structure, hailstone growth mechanisms, the nature and
source of hailstone embryos, and ice phase develop-
ment in supercooled clouds were burning topics of
inquiry and speculation well back into and beyond the
19th century (Middleton, 1965; Khrgian, 1970). In fact,
qualitatively, there has not been as much of an advance
in our understanding of these phenomena in this
century as one would like to believe. Some of the earlier
cumulonimbus models were really quite good (Ludlam,
1963), and it is still profitable to read Humphrey's (1964)
chapters on thunderstorms and their phenomena,
including hail. His book was written from the perspec-
tive of the second decade of this century, and updated
somewhat during the thirties.
A question which is not fully addressed is, "Why
develop models?" Models clearly have two applica-
tions. One is as tools of research. If models are truly
realistic, they serve as experimental clouds in which
experiments can be performed under controllable initial
conditions. How will we know when they become
sufficiently realistic? That will be a difficult problem.
The other principal application is in forecasting.
Some of the simpler one-dimensional cloud models are
already used for operational forecasting with some
success; some of the larger, more complex models may
63
never become feasible forecast tools. Hence the
direction of development should be toward research
models of the size and complexity required for specific
investigations and forecasting models of the simplest
possible type. The more compl.ex models may furnish
guidance in the development of the simpler ones.
Models, physical or mathematical, are an established
tool of the sciences. In their most brilliant ap-
plications they predict previously unobserved effects or
phenomena which, when found in nature after a
concerted search (often prolonged and very expensive),
vindicate the model and expand knowledge. In some
cases (as in the postulation of the neutrino) a new
phenomenon will be invented which brings a model into
line with physical reality.
In the case of cloud models, is this their purpose and
are they so used? Will the appearance in a model of a
previously unobserved effect, such as, for example,
very high supersaturations as reported by Subbarao and
Das (1975), trigger an expensive search effort to find the
effect, or simply cause one to question the model?
This is meant not to denigrate the modeling efforts
but to establish the stage of maturity at which modeling
now finds itself. It is struggling to simulate nature,
assuming that the available description of nature is
complete or very nearly so. In itself such simulation is
pointless. What makes it worthwhile is the faith that
cloud modeling will someday mature to the stage of
being able to tell us something we didn't already know.
How far in the future that day lies is for anyone to guess.
For my own part, I believe there are surprises awaiting
us which will become apparent not through modeling
but through analysis of observations. There is always a
need for new ideas. It is most probable that we will
understand hailstorms before we can simulate them.
The model's function in the mean time is really one of
support and reassurance, much the same as the role
played by objective forecasting in weather research.
The better the forecast or simulation, the more
confidence one has that the essentials of the problem
are well in hand.
Another point to be made centers more directly on
the poor state of our knowledge about crucial aspects of
hailstorms. We have a poor state of affairs in the area of
nucleation of condensation and freezing. That encom-
passes both theoretical understanding and measure-
ment, and both natural and "artificial" nucleation. We
64
don't understand what determines the crucial scales of
convection, nor the characteristics and role of turbu-
lence in storms. The mode of growth of hailstones
themselves is not well understood, nor are electrical
effects and their role in storm dynamics and micro-
physics. The influence of terrain features at various
scales on convection is a problem of challenging
complexity. And these are but a few problems for the
sake of illustration. Storm modeling at this time is
analogous to building a Frankenstein monster with
component organs that don't work as real ones do. He
may look like a person but he eats glue and has bad
manners. We need much more research and practice at
building the component organs. Full storm models have
not yet taught us anything that we didn't already know
through observation, and they are not likely to do so
very soon. Simple models of reduced scope have been
useful in examining the interplay and balance of a few
effects, as for example in the downdraft evaporation
study of Kamburova and Ludlam (1966) to name only
one. There is need for an assessment of the relative
roles of precipitation evaporation and hail melting in the
downdraft process. This can best be pursued in some
special, simplified downdraft model, rather than in a full
storm model where many competing processes are
superimposed on each other.
Those who engage in full thunderstorm modeling take
on a strange view of the world in which the model tends
to become reality. In his introduction, Orville, as his
principal conclusion, has implied that the testing
ground for the insights gained from some of the simpler
models will be not observations of storms but the larger
models of the future. This is not a cardinal sin for an
involved modeler, but there is some danger of this
viewpoint becoming more pervasive than that. An
example of how models can distort one's view can be
seen in the recent "discovery" that the buoyancy of the
air entering the base of cumulus clouds can be negative
(Marwitz, 1973). Any elementary treatment of parcel
convection (e.g., Saucier, 1955, p. 68) makes a
PART 1: HAIL PHYSICS
distinction between the condensation level (cloud base)
and the level offree convection (LFC, the level at which
buoyancy is zero, and above which it is positive). In the
general case, the LFC is above the cloud base so that
the buoyancy at the base is negative. The simpler cloud
models (such as stability indices or one-dimensional
models) make use of a grossly simple but useful fictional
quantity known as the convective condensation level
which is a cloud base definition for which the buoyancy
is always zero. Through continued use and in the
absence of measurements, this model parameter was
exchanged for nature and hence the need to discover
what had been known for a long time. To judge by the
excited general reception of Marwitz' paper, it came
not a moment too soon.
To close this comment, all is well with numerical
simulation of hailstorms; it is exciting and interesting,
very complex, a reasonable and worthwhile pursuit.
The successes to date are truly spectacular. The
simulations which have been carried out resemble real
clouds, and behave somewhat like real clouds, and that
is no mean achievement. However, in this writer's
opinion, the models are not nearly at the stage where
they can play a fully interacting role in storm research.
REFERENCES
Humphreys, W. J., 1964: Physics of the Air, 3rd ed. Dover, 676 pp.
Kamburova, P. L., and F. H. Ludlam. 1966: Rainfall evaporation in
thunderstorm downdrafts. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 92,
510-518.
Ludlam, F. H., 1963: Severe Local Storms: A Review. Meteor.
Monogr., No. 27, 1-30.
Marwitz, J. D., 1973: Non-hydrostatic pressures in severe thun-
derstorms. Preprints Eighth Conf. Severe Local Storms,
Denver, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 14-17.
Middleton, W. E. K., 1965: A History of the Theories of Rain and
Others Forms of Precipitation. Watts, N.Y., 223 pp.
Khrgian, A. K., 1970: Meteorology, a Historical Survey. [Israel
Program for Scientific Translations, Jerusalem.]
Subbarao, M. C., and P. Das, 1975: Microphysical implications of
precipitation formation in an adiabatic vertical current: Aerosol
scavenging by enhanced nucleation. J. Atmos. Sci., 32,
2338-2357.
 The Characteristics of Natural Hailstones and Their Interpretation

W. C. MACKLIN 1

National Center for Atmospheric Research, 2 Boulder Colorado

ABSTRACT

Present knowledge of the characteristics of natural hailstones and their interpretation is reviewed. The theory of
hailstone growth is first presented as this defines the terminology used in discussing the growth of hail. Broadly,
the growth of the various hailstone layers may be described as "dry" or "wet" depending on whether or not
all of the accreted supercooled droplets can be frozen by the forced ventilation processes of heat conduction and
evaporation from the hailstone surface. The nature of the ice deposited depends on the particular regime in which
the layer was formed. In the wet growth regime, it is usual for the excess unfrozen water to be incorporated
in the ice structure to form a "spongy" deposit.
The characteristics of hailstones are then discussed. These include their shape and size, the nature of the
embryos, their layer and lobe structure, and the isotopic composition and particulate content of the layers.
Sections on the aerodynamic behaviour and the growth parameters (density, collection efficiency, and drag and
heat coefficients) of hailstones are also included. These are important because they affect the growth and heat
balance equations in the theoretical treatment.
Finally, methods of hailstone analysis and the interpretation of the data so obtained are described. The current
main methods of analysis are determinations of the isotopic composition, the crystal size and orientation distribu-
tions, and the air bubble concentrations and size distributions in the individual hailstone layers. These indicate
the ambient temperatures, liquid water concentrations and, to a lesser degree, the cloud droplet sizes at and from
which the layers were formed. The analyses to date suggest that large hailstones remain balanced in their
respective updrafts between about the -20 and - 30°C levels for most of their growth history. This means that
the updrafts increase with time or, alternatively, that the hailstones move around the main cores ofthe updrafts
in such a way that they encounter increasing updraft speeds. Variations in the opacity of hailstone layers are
due to fluctuations in the liquid water concentration, by as much as 30 percent. On the assumption that the
median volume radius of the cloud droplets is - 10 ~J-m, the liquid water concentrations in the updrafts are
approximately the adiabatic values. It is pointed out, however, that there are assumptions underlying the
analytical techniques used in the analyses and these have yet to be fully confirmed.

1. Introduction
There are two main reasons for studying hailstones.
As natural phenomena hailstones have an intrinsic
interest. However, hailstorms frequently cause con-
siderable damage and this has led to hail suppression
experiments in a number of countries. Because of the
severity of such storms, it is difficult to obtain informa-
tion on the growth environment of hailstones by direct
in-cloud measurements. As pointed out by various
authors (e.g., Weickmann, 1964; List, 1965; Knight and
Knight, 1971), the structure of hailstones must reflect
the conditions under which they were formed in the
parent clouds. The major stimulus for hailstone re-
search in recent years is the possibility of using the
hailstone itself as a hailstorm sensor.
1 Advanced Study Program Fellow, on leave from the Department
of Physics, University of Western Australia, Nedlands, Western
Australia.
2 The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored
by the National Science Foundation. Part of the work reported
herein was performed as a part of, and with some support from, the
National Hail Research Experiment, managed by the National Center
for Atmospheric Research and sponsored by the Weather Modifica-
tion Program, Research Applications Directorate, National Science
Foundation.
2. Theory
It is convenient to consider first the theory of hail-
stone formation as much of current terminology has
stemmed from the theoretical formulation of the growth
of hail. The treatment given is for hailstones having
spherical symmetry as this exemplifies the principles
involved. Although most hailstones do not exhibit such
symmetry, the manner of formation of non-spherical
hail is more complicated (see Section 4).
Hailstones grow mainly by the accretion of super-
cooled cloud droplets. It is possible, in certain circum-
stances, that hailstones can grow by sweeping up ice
crystals if they occur in substantial concentration
(Macklin, 1961) but this will be ignored. An extensive
treatment of hailstone growth has been given by
Schumann (1938) and Ludlam (1950, 1958). Subse-
quently, slightly modified formulations have been given
by List (1960a, 1963), Macklin (1963), List, Schuepp
and Methop (1965) and List and Dussault (1967).
a. The growth equations
It is readily shown that the rate of growth of a
spherical hailstone of radius R falling through a cloud

65
66 PART 1: HAIL PHYSICS

with a distribution of droplet radii r is
-dR = -
1 Jrx E(R,r) Wf(r)[ V(R) - v(r)]dr,
dt 4p; 0 involving both molecular conduction and evaporation.
where p; is the hailstone density, E(R,r) is the col-
lection efficiency of the hailstone for droplets of
radius r, W is the liquid water concentration, f(r) is
the frequency distribution of the cloud droplets, V(R)
is the fallspeed of the hailstone and v(r) is the fall-
speed of the droplets. The fallspeed of a hailstone is
given by
- { 8gp;R } 1t2
V- --- ' (2)
3CnPa
where en is the drag coefficient and Pais the air density.
As the droplet fallspeeds are much less than those of
hailstones, Eq. (1) may be written
dR EWV
-=--,
dt 4p;
where E is the collection efficiency averaged over the
droplet distribution.
The equation expressing the rate of change of hail-
stone radius with height Z in the cloud is also readily
obtained. Since
dZ
u-v
dt
where U is the updraft speed,
dR EWV
dZ 4p;(U- V)
Eqs. (3) and (5) may be integrated numerically to
obtain the time taken for a hailstone to grow between
certain radii or certain levels in the cloud.
b. The heat balance equation
Schumann (1938) realized that a growing hailstone is
warmed above the temperature of its environment due
to the release of latent heat of fusion by the ac-
creted droplets. This imposes a limit to the accretion
rate beyond which not all of the droplets can be
frozen. His calculation of this limit was rudimentary
and it was Ludlam (1950, 1958) who first made
quantitative estimates of this critical accretion rate.
The rate at which heat is generated per unit area
h1 due to the freezing droplets is
EWV
ht = - - [L, + Cw(Ta- Td) + C;(Tm- Td)],
4
where L 1 is the latent heat of fusion of ice, cw and c;
the specific heat of water and ice, respectively, T m the
melting point of ice (Oc(:), Ta the ambient temperature,
and Td the hailstone temperature. Td is here assumed to
be lower than Tm· This heat is removed from a growing
(1) hailstone essentially by forced ventilation processes
The rate of heat transfer per unit area h1 can be written
in the form (Macklin, 1963)
X Re112f3
ht = ' (7)
2R
where x is the heat transfer coefficient, Re the
Reynolds number and
/3 = Pr 113k( Td - Ta) + Sc 113 LvD(Pws - Pwe). (8)
Pr and Sc are the dimensionless Prandtl and Schmidt
numbers, k is the thermal conductivity of air, Lv the
latent heat of vaporization, D the diffusion coefficient
of water molecules in air and Pws and Pwe the water
vapor densities at the surface of the hailstone and in
the environment respectively. In the present applica-
(3)
tion Pr and Sc have approximately constant values of
0.71 and 0.60, respectively. Under steady-state condi-
tions, the rate of heat removal is equal to the rate at
which heat is liberated. Equating (6) and (7), and in-
serting expressions for the Reynolds number and fall-
speed, gives
EW X ( -Cn) 114 F( T Td) (9)
(4)
= -
R 3/4 P;
a• '
where
(
24pa3 )1/4 {3
(5) T/2g
F( Ta,Td) = , (10)
Lt + Cw(Ta- Tm) + C;(Tm- Td)
T/ being the dynamic viscosity of air.
It is evident from Eq. (9) that, f9r given environment
conditions and hailstone radius, there is a value of the
liquid water concentration for which the hailstone
temperature Tdjust reaches 0°C. Ludlam (1950) termed
this the critical value We. For W < We, the rate of
removal of heat is greater than the rate at which heat is
liberated and the hailstone temperature is below 0°C.
For W > We, the hailstone temperature is ooc and not
all of the accreted water is frozen. Ludlam (1958) refers
to these as the dry and wet growth regimes respec-
tively. Calculations based on the heat transfer data for
smooth spheres suggest that large hailstones grow in
the wet growth regime. For a 6 em diameter hailstone,
We is I g m- 3 for an ambient temperature of -20°C
and 2 g m- 3 for -40°C (Macklin, 1961). These values
(6) are considerably lower than the adiabatic liquid water
concentrations of some 5 to 8 g m- 3 to be expected in
severe storms.
Following Schumann (1938), Ludlam assumed that
the unfrozen water is shed in the wake of hailstone.
W. C. MACKLIN
However, icing tunnel experiments by Fraser, Rush
and Baxter (I952), List (1959a, I960a), Macklin (1961)
and Mossop and Kidder (1962) showed that the excess
water may be incorporated into the ice structure form-
ing a "spongy" ice deposit. It was List who first drew
attention to the implications of spongy ice for hailstone
growth. The physical basis of the formation of spongy
ice has been discussed by List (1960a), Macklin and
Ryan (1965) and Knight (1968). Such deposits may
contain as much as 80% of unfrozen water. However,
at warm temperatures (Ta ~ - l2°C) some ofthe excess
water is in fact shed (Macklin, I961; Carras and
Macklin, 1973). In this circumstance the collection
efficiency in the above equations has to be modified
appropriately. For a time spongy growth was assumed
to be necessary for the growth of large hailstones, but
this has since been proved not always to be the case
(see Section 5d).
The density and opacity of dry growth deposits was
investigated by Macklin (1962) . The density ranges
from about O.I to 0.9 g m- 3 depending on the value of
the parameter r Vo!Td - T m• where Vo is the speed of
impact of the droplets. The temperature of the deposit
determines the rate at which the individual droplets
freeze while r and v 0 determine the impact momentum
of the droplets. As the deposit temperature falls the
deposits rapidly become opaque due to the presence of
numerous small air bubbles. In the dry growth regime
the ice is clear only near the wet growth limit. The
freezing of the droplets is relatively slow and more
like that of a water film enabling the dissolved air to
escape by diffusion. Clear ice may also be formed in the
wet growth regime, but not in excessively spongy
deposits as the air again becomes entrapped. This is
discussed more fully in Section 6c.
3. Characteristics of hailstones
Hailstones range in size from a few millimeters to
some 15 em in maximum dimension. Fig. 1 is a photo-
graph of a very large hailstone which fell at Coffey-
ville, Kansas (Knight and Knight, 1971a). It weighed
0.77 kg. Prohaska (1905) has reported hailstones I5 em
in diameter and weighing between 0.8 and I. I kg.
Typical photographs of hailstones several centimeters
in maximum dimension have been published, for
example, by Weickmann (1953) , List (1958), Browning
(1966), Carte and Kidder (1966) , Macklin et al. (1970),
and Barge and Isaac (1973).
The external features of hailstones can be observed
directly. Many of the internal features can be readily
seen by making thin sections ( - 0.3 to 1 mm) through
the growth center and then viewing the section in
reflected or transmitted light to show the air bubble
structure and between crossed polarizers to reveal the
crystal structure.
67
FIG. 1. Coffeyville hailstone (from Knight and Knight, 1971a). It
had a maximum dimension of some 14 em and a mass of 0.77 kg.
a. Shape and size
Weickmann (1953) has summarized early work on
hail. He classifies hailstones into three main shapes:
(a) conical, (b) spheroidal and (c) irregular. The
second group is subdivided into spheres and ellipsoids.
The number of reports of hailstones in these categories
in a IOO-year period are given by Weickmann as 22, 62
(20 spherical , 42 ellipsoidal) and 9, respectively. These
reports further indicated that large hailstones have
irregular surfaces, some with pronounced pro-
tuberances and "icicle-like" projections.
More recent observers have used similar terms to
describe the shape of hailstones. Of four large hail-
stones, List (1959b), describes one as spherical and
the other as oblate ellipsoids with axis ratios of I:0.77:
0.64, 1:0.78:0.55 and I:0.79:0.44. Macklin (1963) found
that for a group of 61 spheroidal and ellipsoidal hail-
stones ranging from 2 to 5 em maximum dimension,
30 had axis ratios in the range 1:0.90-I:0.50-0.89 , I8
had axis ratios in the range 1:0.80-0.89:0.40-0. 89, and
4 had axis ratios in the range 1:0.70-0.79:0.40- 0.69.
Carte and Kidder (1966) have classified the shapes of
3514 hailstones from 43 hail days in South Africa into
five categories. The relative frequencies of occurrence
of the five groups are shown in Fig. 2. Barge and Isaac
(1973) measured the maximum and minimum dimen-
sions of 1920 hailstones (from 101 hail samples in
Alberta) ranging up to 6 em maximum dimension. The
three categories oblate and prolate ellipsoids and
cones, obtained about 70% of the hailstones . The
minimum value of the ratio of the minimum to
maximum dimension was found to be 0.30 and the
modal value between 0.75 and 0.79.
68 PART 1: HAIL PHYSICS

203 1049 831 920 420 91 HAILSTONES

Cfl
~~
<(Q. (TOTAL 3514)
I::>
lfiO
cr
C/IC>
:::>
Qw
rr N 60
~Vi

SPHEROIDS

p ELLIPSOIDS
/ 'APPLES'
.1:>--·---o-·-·-o /
....-~/~···"'IRREGULAR

LENGTH OF MAJOR AXIS (em)

FIG. 2. Relative frequencies of occurrence of different shapes of hailstones in various size groups.
(From Carte and Kidder, 1%6.)

There is evidence that large hailstones become more of hailfalls resulted in hailstones larger than 3 em
oblate as they grow. From an examination of the in- maximum dimension. Held (1973) states that only 2%
ternal symmetry of 90 stones, Browning and Beimers of 10,560 reports indicated hail larger than 3 em.
(1967) concluded that the ratio, a, of the minor to Changnon (1971) found that in Illinois, 5% of 1189 hail-
major axis decreased with maximum hailstone dimen- fall reports gave the maximum size as greater than
sion at the rate daldR - -0.09 cm- 1 • Further, melting 2.5 em. This compared favorably with the value of 6%
also tends to increase hailstone oblateness and Brown- obtained from hailpads for the same area. Barge and
ing and Beimers deduced a value of daldR for melting Isaac's (1973) data is shown in Fig. 3, together with the
as- -0.13 cm- 1 • distribution obtained by Douglas (1961, 1964). Some
It should be noted also that the irregular nature of 70% of the hailstones were less than 2 em, while only
some hailstones is due to their breaking during growth. 10% were greater than 3 em. The modal diameter
Browning (1967a) observed that sections of 15 of 134 of maximum hailstone dimension was between 1.5
hailstones (i.e., more than 10%) showed that portions and 2 em.
had broken off during growth. This can occur even in
the initial embryo stages. Knight and Knight (1970c) b. Embryos
remark that there is a good correlation between
Thin sections of hailstones reveal that each contains
irregular embryos (often broken pieces of spherical
a growth center or embryo which is readily dis-
embryos) and irregularly shaped stones. It appears
tinguished from the rest of the stone. The size of the
that, once symmetry is lost, it is difficult for the hail-
embryo ranges from some 1.5 mm to about 1 em. List
stone to regain it by growth.
(1958, 1960b) found that in Switzerland 80% of all large
List (1965) gives the size ranges of hailstones of
hailstones have conical embryos. These, he inferred,
various shapes as roughly spherical or conical
(diameters 0.5 to 1 em); ellipsoidal or conical (1 to TABLE l. Frequency distributions of largest hailstones against size
2 em); ellipsoidal, often with small lobes or knobs and (after Carte and Kidder, 1966).
indentations along the shortest axis (2 to 5 em); and
Diameter of Percentages
roughly spherical or irregular with small or large largest
protuberances (4 to 10 em). The occurrence of large hailstones* New
hail is apparently relatively low, at least in certain (em) Alberta Denver England Transvaal
countries. Table 1, taken from Carte and Kidder (1966) Small 0-1 34 23 60 58
gives the frequency distributions of the largest hail- Medium 1-3 63 73 36 38
Large >3 3 4 4 4
stones reported in hailfalls in Canada, certain states
in the United States, and South Africa. Only some 4% * From hail reports.
W. C. MACKLIN
were originally soft hail or graupel which had grown by
riming on an ice crystal and then subsequently soaked
up liquid water to give the observed high density. Such
embryos can also be initiated by large frozen cloud
droplets (Browning et a/., 1963). Macklin et a/. (1959)
observed that over 90% of 60 hailstones from a storm
in S.E. England had transparent embryos. They sug-
gested that the embryos were frozen raindrops which
grew either by coalescence or by the melting and
refreezing of graupel.
Subsequent workers have found more varied types of
embryos. Mossop and Kidder (1961) studied 55 large
(2.8 to 5.5 em) hailstones which fell in South Africa.
They categorized the various embryo types as: (a)
spheres or ellipsoids of milky ice formed in the dry
growth regime; (b1) conical small hail formed when a
conical graupel falls with apex upward into a region of
wet growth so that there is a gradation from opaque to
clear ice; (b2) ellipsoidal small hail formed when a
spherical graupel falls with constant orientation in a
region of wet growth again giving a gradation from
opaque to clear ice; (b3) ellipsoidal or spherical
small hail formed when a spherical graupel tumbles in a
region of wet growth so that an outer layer of clear
large crystal ice is formed; and (c) clear ice particles,
nearly spherical, consisting of large randomly oriented
crystals. The average diameter of these last embryos
was 8 mm which is too large for them to be formed
by the freezing of water drops.
Carte and Kidder (1966) classified the embryos of
637 hailstones into three types: (a) clear, (b) opaque and
(c) cones with opaque tips. Types (a) and (b) were
mostly spheroidal in shape. The relative frequency of
the three types were (a) 25 to 10% (the percentage
decreasing with increasing hailstone dimension), (b)
40 to 60% (with no systematic dependence on hailstone
dimension), and (c) 20 to 40% (the percentage increas-
ing with hailstone dimension). They point out that the
embryo appears to be a dominating factor in determin-
ing the final hailstone shape. Of those with a conical or
ovoid embryo, two-thirds were ellipsoidal while the
rest were either spherical or irregular, whereas
spheroidal embryos gave rise to spheroidal hailstones
in three-quarters of the cases.
Knight and Knight (1970a) have studied the embryos
of 400 hailstones from 40 storms in the western United
States in some detail. Their classification is (a) conical,
often termed graupel, (b) spherical clear, (c) spherical
bubbly, and (d) other forms. The relative frequencies
of these various types were 60%, 25%, 10% and 5%
respectively. However, a sample of hailstones from a
single storm, at one location on the ground, usually
yields more than 80% of embryos of the same type. One
storm from which samples were obtained over a 10-mile
69
98
90
1-
z
LLI 80
(.)
a: 70
Douglas\
LLI
a.. 60
LLI 50
> 40
fi...J 30
20
Maximum
Dimension
::::>
~
::::> 10
(.)
2
D
0.2 .___ __,___,'-'--'--'-L....I....~L-----L--'-~-.I.......L....w...J
~ ~ ~
DIMENSION (em)
FIG. 3. Cumulative frequency distributions ofthe minimum and max-
imum dimensions of hailstones. (From Barge and Isaac, 1973.)
distance along the storm track showed a consistent
change in embryo type, from conical bubbly embryos
at the beginning to spherical, usually clear, embryos at
the end of the track. Consequently, studies of hail-
stone embryos can yield information about the storms
which produce them, particularly in differentiating
between hailstone models which imply certain condi-
tions for embryo formation.
The interiors of the conical embryos were usually
composed of very bubbly ice, often with small (10 to
100 p.m) air bubbles and often with one or more clear
layers of clear ice. The crystal size was usually large.
Within these, and other types of embryos, there was
almost never any relation between air bubble content
and crystal size when the crystal size was large. How-
ever, small crystal size was virtually always accom-
panied by air bubbles in the ice. From a consideration
of the crystal orientations and crystal size, Knight and
Knight infer that the growth was dry and occurred at
ambient temperatures warmer than - -2ooc. They
further suggest that there is no reason to invoke any
later soaking in liquid water to explain the features
found (cf. List 1958, 1960b). The clear and bubbly
spherical embryos were found together with the clear
ones predominating. The bubbly embryos were non-
descript with neither particularly small or large crystals
and little or no distinguishing pattern in either crystals
or bubbles. They were possibly formed by partial
melting and refreezing of a low density ice aggregate,
either a loosely rimed ice crystal or an aggregate of
snow crystals. The crystal size in the clear spherical
embryos was typically large and often the entire
embryo was a single crystal. They were usually spongy,
70
FIG. 4. Thin section ofthe Coffeyville hailstone in (a) transmitted
light and (b) polarized light showing the air bubble and crystal
layering.
as indicated by internal expansion cracks due to the
freezing of internal liquid water. Knight and Knight
suggest that these embryos were formed by the freezing
oflarge supercooled water drops although they indicate
that at present there is no way of proving this. How-
ever, these embryos grow warmer (wetter, spongier)
than the conical embryos and this is probably the
reason for the tumbling and consequently spherical
symmetry.
Knight and Knight point out that there are several
striking differences between embryo growth and subse-
quent hailstone growth. They conclude that a necessary
step in the formation of many large hailstones appears
to be embryo formation in one set of conditions
followed by the "injection" of the embryos into
another set of conditions more conducive to hailstone
formation, either in a different part of the cloud system
or at a later time when the system has changed
significantly.
c. Layer structure
One of the most obvious features of large hailstones
is that they are frequently composed of alternate layers
of clear and opaque ice. The first recorded observation
PART 1: HAIL PHYSICS
of this kind is that of Volta (1800), reproduced in the
journal Nubila, and there were a number of such ob-
servations made in the latter half of last century (see
Weickmann 1953). Concomitant with these variations
in opacity there may or may not be abrupt changes in
crystal size, as discussed further below. There are
now many published photographs which exemplify
these features, for example, List (1958), Mossop and
Kidder (1962), Sarrica (1965), Browning (1966) and
Knight and Knight (1970a, b, c, 197lb). A thin section
of Knight and Knight's Coffeyville hailstone viewed in
transmitted light and between crossed polaroids is
shown in Fig. 4.
Mossop and Kidder (1961) examined the layer struc-
ture of 55 hailstones between 2.8 and 5.5 em in maxi-
mum dimension. The most common number of well-
defined zones (including the embryo) was four. About
40% of the hailstones consisted of only three zones
while 10% had more than four zones, the greatest
number being 8. Browning ( 1966) found that in 45 hail-
stones with diameters greater than 5 em, the number of
major growth layers varied from 2 to 6, with little over
half of the stones having 4 such zones. Carte and
Kidder (1966) studied the air bubble and crystal layers
in 673 hailstones up to some 5 em in maximum dimen-
sion. They point out that when changes in opacity were
used to indicate layer boundaries, uncertainties were
encountered because the changes in opacity were
sometimes gradual, the growth was often asymmetrical,
some of the layers were very fine, while others were
incomplete. If all of the opaque layers (even the very
fine ones) were included, 39% of the hailstones had
10 to 20 layers while one had 28layers. Two, four, and
nine layers were the most frequently encountered
numbers in the size ranges medium (l to 3 em), large
(3 to 5 em) and extra large (>5 em) respectively. On
the other hand, changes in crystal size were more
definitive. Where the crystal size changed the opacity
nearly always changed as well, although the con-
verse was not true. Consequently, the crystal layers
were fewer in number than the air bubble layers.
The number oflayers in the three size ranges were two,
three and four, respectively. The greatest number of
crystal layers even in the largest hailstones was found
to be eight.
Attempts have been made to determine whether
some of the layers in hailstones are composed of spongy
ice. Using a calorimetric technique, Gitlin et al. (1966)
found that 15 samples of freshly fallen hailstones in
N.E. Colorado contained less than 2% by weight of
unfrozen water. Gitlin and Goyer (1968) showed that
57% of hailstones which fell in Kenya contained no
water, the average content of the remainder being
4.2%. In Colorado and South Dakota the liquid water
content of hailstones from five storms increased from
W. C. MACKLIN
an average of 15% for small soft opaque hail collected
in June to 0.4% for large, mostly clear hailstones
collected in August. Browning et al. (1968) obtained
liquid water contents up to 12% of the mass of hail-
stones which fell in Oklahoma. They sectioned 100
hailstones within minutes of falling and found that 30
hailstones larger than 2 em diameter contained a soft
inner shell about 1 em diameter and thickness about
0.2 em, apparently composed of spongy ice.
Most large hailstones are apparently hard as they
have been observed to bounce on striking the ground
(e.g., Ludlam and Macklin, 1959). However, there have
been a few reports of large spongy hailstones (Brown-
ing, 1966; Carte, 1966; Carte and Kidder, 1966; Held,
1973) but they are apparently rare. Carte (1966) states
that hailstones less than 1 em diameter are frequently
soft, easily compressible and soggy. These are simply
composed of rime with a porous structure into which
melted or accreted water has permeated (see also
Knight and Knight, 1973). If these are ignored, prac-
tically all hailstones which have landed as obvious ice-
water mixtures are eliminated. On the basis of all the
evidence, it is reasonable to assume that the individual
growth layers are also generally composed of hard ice,
although some may have formed near the wet growth
limit.
The size of the crystals in individual hailstone layers
varies considerably from one layer to the next. The
crystals range in size from millimeters in length to a
hundred or so microns, the large crystals being
elongated in the direction of growth of the hailstones.
Surprisingly, little quantitative work has been carried
out on crystal size (see Section 6b). Somewhat more
work has been carried out on the orientations of the
individual crystals using the etch pit technique which
gives the direction of the c-axes of the crystals (Auf-
dermaur) et al., 1963; Knight and Knight, 1968, 1970b;
Levi et al., 1970; List et al., 1970; Macklin et al., 1976).
Two methods of representing the crystallographic
orientations have been used. In the first, the angles
between the c-axes and the growth direction of the
accreted ice have been measured and the distribution
of these angles between oo and 90° determined. In the
second, the angles measured are those between the
growth direction and the projection of the c-axes onto
the plane of the hailstone section. These projections
have been termed the c'-axes. By relating these dis-
tributions to those obtained in accreted ice deposits
grown under controlled conditions in an icing tunnel, it
is possible to obtain information concerning the growth
conditions of the various layers (see Section 7).
Studies of the concentrations and size distributions
of air bubbles in hailstones are also limited. List et al.
(1972) made planar cuts through hailstones and then
replicated the surfaces using formvar. The holes in the
71
replicas made by the air bubbles were counted and
sized and then statistically related to the concentrations
and size distributions in the bulk ice. They found
distinct differences between the opaque and trans-
parent ice layers. Opaque layers contained numerous
small (~20 JLm radius) in planar concentrations greater
than 500 cm- 2 while transparent layers contained larger
bubbles in concentrations one to two orders of
magnitude smaller than those in opaque layers. Macklin
et al. (1976) determined the concentrations and size
distributions of air bubbles in six large hailstones (4.5 to
6.5 em). The bubble concentrations in both opaque and
transparent layers were typically about 106 to 108 cm- 3
and ranged in size up to about 10 J.tm radius with most
of the bubbles being less than 5 JLm radius. This is
indicative of dry growth (see Section 6c).
d. Lobe structure
A significant advance in the understanding of the
structure of large hailstones was made independently
by Sarrica (1965) and by Browning (1966). As well as
the radial layered structure, these authors emphasized
the importance of growth variations which, in spherical
polar coordinates, have an angular dependence. There
are two main pieces of evidence for this. First, sections
of large hailstones exhibit approximately regularly-
spaced radial channels of transparent ice containing
chains of large air bubbles frequently elongated in the
radial direction. These radial channels penetrate the
hailstone from virtually the embryo outwards and are
clear even when they pass through densely opaque
layers. Second, the layers between the channels are
not spherical about the embryo but are strongly convex
outward, the growth layers becoming more con-
voluted with increasing distance from the hailstone
center. The hailstones are therefore comprised of a
three-dimensional array of lobes and schematic
diagrams of these structures are shown in Fig. 5.
When the surface of the hailstone is viewed as a whole
it sometimes creates the false impression that the
hailstone is an aggregate of smaller hailstones. This
misimpression has been reported in the early literature
(see Weickmann, 1953). The formation of these types of
lobes is essentially due to a collection efficiency
effect, as discussed in Section 5b.
Browning (1966) inferred that during growth the
lobes are separated by very porous ice or, more likely,
by empty spaces which are subsequently penetrated by
liquid water. This freezes to form the radial channels
of almost clear ice. There is another interesting aspect
of the air bubble structure of the lobes. In the trans-
parent lobes hyperfine layers of small air bubbles can
be seen. These follow the curvature of the lobes and
have a spacing of some 200 to 800 J.tm. Browning sug-
72
(n)
tOBt ,·~JCruR•
01 h 'f'llfRI(/11
t1AlLS"Ot .
(h)
FIG. 5. Schematic diagrams of the lobe structure of hailstones from
(a) Sarrica (1965) and (b) Browning (1966).
gests that these are due to variations in the freezing
rate of the liquid layer covering the transparent regions
as the hailstone rotates . The ice crystals in the trans-
parent lobes tend to be aligned along the local radius
vector and diverge as the lobes diverge.
All of these features are strikingly seen in the
photographs of Knight and Knight (1970b, c, 1971b).
Knight and Knight (1970b) differentiate between the
types of lobes observed by Sarrica and Browning,
which they term cusped lobes (the cusps being directed
towards the center of the stones), and icicle lobes. The
latter are not cusped but form as an icicle forms-by
the flow of liquid water over the hailstone surface with
preferential freezing at the tips. In extreme cases these
lobes give rise to much more pronounced protuberances
than do the former and the spacing between them is
much larger. In well-developed icicle lobes it is
common to find more or less faint trains of air bubbles
along the lobe axes. From studies of their bubble struc-
tures, Knight and Knight infer that the cusped lobe
structure forms in dry growth, each water droplet
freezing where it impinges on the hailstone, while the
icicle lobes are formed in slightly wet growth. In very
spongy growth the icicle lobes are less well developed.
They further point out that, as is to be expected, hail-
stones contain lobe structures at all stages between
the two types. This is reflected in their air bubble
structures.
According to Browning (1%6) the most significant
aspect of the lobe structure from the point of view of
hailstone growth is that the lobes significantly enhance
PART 1: HAIL PHYSICS
the rate of heat transfer from the stones. This permits
hailstones to grow to large size without becoming
excessively spongy. There are two possible reasons for
the enhanced heat transfer. First, the lobes cause the
airflow around the hailstones to be more turbulent
because each lobe creates its own wake. Second, there
is an overall increase in the surface area. Where the
individual knobs produced at the surface by the lobes
are approximately hemispherical and are closely
packed, the surface area is nearly doubled.
Artificial hailstones with realistic cusp-shaped lobes
have been reproduced in the laboratory by Bailey and
Macklin (1968a). They freely suspended artificial hail-
stones in a vertical icing tunnel. Typical examples of
the artificial hailstones so formed are shown in Figs. 6
and 7. The fissures between the lobes were completely
void, which means that the transparent ice channels
observed in natural hailstones are formed by the
subsequent penetration and freezing of liquid water.
This can occur while the hailstone is falling back down
through the cloud or by the seepage into the hailstones
of melt water. This water will freeze when the hail-
stones are stored at cold temperatures. By varying the
ambient temperature, droplet size and liquid water con-
centration, Bailey and Macklin were able to delineate
the range of conditions under which such lobes are
formed. They conclude that lobe-like growth, with
intervening fissures, is the characteristic mode of
growth when the accreted droplets are small ($15 ~.tm
median volume radius) and when the growth is taking
place near the wet growth limit. If the droplets are
large or the growth is spongy then the lobes are far
less marked.
Three-dimensional arrays of lobes were obtained
only when the artificial hailstones were freely rotating.
FIG. 6. Artificial hailstone 10 em in diameter showing the lobe
structure. (From Bailey and Macklin, 1%8.)
W. C. MACKLIN 73

The lobes formed on objects rotated about a fixed

horizontal axis were two-dimensional, while if the
object was held stationary then only a single projection
was formed at the stagnation point. The hyperfine air
bubble layers in the lobes were also reproduced. These
were formed in both the lobes in the freely floating
artificial hailstones and in the projections formed on
the stationary objects. The most pronounced hyperfine
FIG. 7. Thin section of an artificial hailstone in transmitted light
bubble layers were formed near the wet growth limit. showing the lobe structure and air bubble layering. (From Bailey
In this circumstance the freezing is more like that of a and Macklin, 1968a).
water film (Macklin, 1962) and the bubble layers are
most likely formed by the repetitive buildup of con-
Merlivat et al. (1964), Majzoub et al. (1968), Macklin
centration of dissolved air, as described by Carte ( 1961)
et al. (1970), Macklin et al. (1972) and Knight et al.
for bulk water.
(1976). How these data are used to interpret hailstone
structure is discussed in Section 6a.
e. Isotopic composition
Wh1.le many of t he 1eatures
c of h,.;lstones
'" can be f Particulate content
studied by relatively simple techniques, there are some Another feature of hailstones not apparent from
which cannot. This is the case oftheir isotopic composi- simple analysis is the concentrations and size distribu-
tion, i.e., the presence in the hailstones of the more tions of insoluble particulate matter present. These
rare molecular species H 2 0 18 , HDO and HTO. The have been determined by Rosinski (1966, 1967) and,
relative abundance of these compared with ordinary more recently, by Rosinski et al. (1975) using a Royco
water are approximately 2 X I0- 3 , 1.5 X I0- 4 and counter for liquid-borne particles. In the hailstones
1.5 X w - lS respectively. The relative abundance of examined, care was taken to avoid contamination due
H 2 0 18 and HDO can be measured with a mass- to contact with the ground by collecting the stones at
spectrometer while that of HTO requires the use of the time of fall in nets and in boxes lined with plastic.
nuclear counting techniques. Small hail (:S2 em) were dissolved completely in dis-
As condensation of water vapour takes place within a tilled water. Thin sections were made of the larger hail-
cloud, the liquid phase acquires greater concentra- stones and different regions cut out for analysis. These
tions of H 2 0 18 and HDO molecules than the vapour regions consisted of the embryo, the intermediate
phase. This is because each molecular species has a layers and the outer layers. Background counts were
different equilibrium vapour pressure (see, e.g., Fried- obtained using pieces of clear ice manufactured in
man et al., 1964). The relative enrichment of the the laboratory. These were relatively low and were
droplets is expressed in terms of the separation factor a applied as corrections to the values obtained in hail-
stone water. The particle sizes ranged from 3 to
(11)
over 60 JLm.
where N L and N v are the mole fractions of H 2 0 18 There were significant differences between the
(or HDO) molecules in the liquid and vapour phases concentrations and size distributions obtained in
respectively, a being greater than unity. Because the opaque and transparent embryos. For example, the
ratio of the mass of liquid to mass of vapour increases concentrations of 40 to 60 ~tm particles in opaque
with height as condensation proceeds, and because a is embryos ranged between 2 and 42 per gram of ice,
temperature dependent, the relative enrichment of while those in transparent embryos ranged between 590
these molecular species in the cloud droplets decreases and 2880 per gram of ice. According to Rosinski et al.,
with height (see, e.g., Facy et at., 1963, Fig. 1). The this implies different locations in the storm and differ-
presence of HTO in the cloud droplets is due to a ent modes of growth for the two types of embryos.
different mechanism. The presence of HTO in clear The concentrations of the particles in the intermediate
air generally increases with height so that any mixing and outer layers did not depend on the embryo type
of the cloud with outside air produces an increase in and tended to increase with increasing hailstone radius
the tritium content of the cloud droplets (Ehhalt, in a systematic way.
1967, 1971). Such large particles are likely to be present only in
This means that hailstone layers formed at different strong updraughts where they are swept up from the
heights in the cloud have different isotopic composi- ground and act as condensation nuclei for relatively
tion. Determinations of the isotopic composition of large cloud droplets which are subsequently accreted
hailstones have been made by Facy et at. (1963), by the hailstones. Consequently, Rosinski eta/. con-
74 PART I: HAIL PHYSICS

sider that it may be possible to infer from the con- realistic although it cannot give rise to the observed
centrations of large particles, the regions of the up- triaxiality. They favor a motion with the shortest axes
draught in which the embryos were formed and the of the hailstones describing a cone about the horizontal
regions in the updraught in which the hailstones grew to give the major symmetries, superimposed on which
to large size. are more complicated motions to give the minor
asymmetries. The indentations at one or both ends of
4. Aerodynamic behavior the shortest axes of some hailstones are then due to
The aerodynamic behavior of hailstones is important the shielding by the thicker perimeters.
not only because it determines their shape and Some support for this type of motion is given by a
symmetry but also because it affects the shape factors, theoretical study of the falling behavior of oblate
the collection efficiencies and the drag and heat coef- spheroids made by Kry and List (1974). They calculated
ficients to be inserted in the growth and heat balance the various manners of fall of such objects by solving
equations. Approximately spherically symmetric hail- the Eulerian equations of motion semi-empirically
stones are obviously produced by random tumbling using quasistatic approximations for the aerodynamic
(see Browning, 1966; Bailey and Macklin, 1968a). How- forces and torques measured on stationary spheroids
ever, as indicated in Section 3a, the predominant form by List et al. (1973). One class of solutions gave as a
of large hailstones is the triaxial ellipsoid. The longest stable mode of fall the shortest axis describing a cone
axes of the ellipsoids generally differ by not more than about the horizontal. The critical rates of rotation of the
10-20%, so that for the most purposes, such hailstones short axis for the onset of this type of motion for
can be regarded as oblate spheroids with the ratio of spheroids of hailstone size was calculated to be 2 to
minor to major axes ranging down to about 0.5. 6 Hz. However, this critical rotation rate is probably
List (1959) carried out simulation experiments by affected by the roughness of the hailstone.
permitting oblate spheroids to fall in a water tank. He That this type of motion can reproduce the ob-
concluded that the stable manner of fall was that with served layer structure of hailstones has been confirmed
the shortest axis vertical. However, if this orientation experimentally in a vertical icing tunnel by Carras,
was maintained, then accretion would take place only Macklin and Thwaites (unpublished). The device which
on the lower face of a hailstone and the growth would they used to do this is shown schematically in
rapidly become asymmetric. Kidder and Carte (1964) Fig. 8. The artificial hailstone can be rotated in-
reproduced some of the features of oblate hailstones dependently about its shortest axis, while the shortest
by rotating objects about a horizontal axis and Carte axis is made to undergo a conical motion. A resulting
and Kidder (1966) proposed that oblate apple-shaped artificial hailstone is also shown in Fig. 8. It is some
hailstones grow by rotation with the shortest axis 6 em in maximum dimension and was grown at ambient
horizontal. Browning and Beimers (1967), on the other temperatures between - 10 and - 20°C with the shortest
hand, suggested that although hailstones fall for most axis at 40° to the horizontal. The shortest axis of the
of their growth with the shortest axis vertical, the hailstone was rotated at 5 Hz and at the same time the
internal symmetry could be explained by the hailstone shortest axis was made to rotate about the horizontal
flipping over from time to time. They explained the at 0.5 Hz. The range of angles and rates of rotation
increase in oblateness during growth as being due to required to produce such structures have yet to be
spongy ice on the upstream face being driven toward determined.
the sides of the hailstone where it subsequently freezes. The fall behavior of replicas of the Coffeyville hail-
A detailed examination of the symmetry of the stone (Fig. 1) has been studied by Roos (1972). The
internal structure of hailstones has been made by models were dropped from a helicopter and their rate
Knight and Knight (1970c). Because some of the sym- of fall observed by theodolite. Some of the models were
metric growth layers are less than a millimeter thick, retrieved after they struck the ground and from the
they infer that at least a few flips per minute would impact marks it was evident that they struck the ground
be required. In this case, most of the growth does not with the smooth edge leading or with the protuberances
occur with the shortest axis of the hailstone vertical. sideways. This was confirmed by Roos and Carte (1973)
Further, from an examination of the air bubble struc- who investigated the free fall of this hailstone and
ture, they conclude that the perimeters of the hail- other more irregular shapes in a wind tunnel, in a mine
stones grew warmest because they collect most water. shaft and in a water column. The motions of some of
The more bubbly ice along the shortest axes of the the irregular models were quite complicated and the
stones often grows very dry. This is at variance with reader is referred to Table 3 of their paper for details.
Browning and Beimer's suggestion. Knight and Knight In particular, the replica of the Coffeyville hailstone
consider that Carte and Kidder's proposal is more fell with its smooth base downwards while oscillating
W. C. MACKLIN
about a horizontal axis. However, using the arguments
of Knight and Knight (1970c), this would not have given
rise to the inner symmetry of the stone (see Fig. 4).
It seems likely therefore that this hailstone changed
its mode of fall at some stage during its growth,
probably during the formation of the pronounced lobes .
5. The growth parameters
There are four parameters in the growth and heat
balance equations relevant to the growth of hail. These
are the hailstone density P~> the collection efficiency
E , and the drag and heat transfer coefficients C n and
x, respectively . As indicated in the previous section, the
precise manner of fall of oblate and irregular hailstones
is complicated. Consequently, with the exception of the
density, the measurements of the growth parameters
discussed in this section are applicable to hailstones
having a pronounced degree of spherical symmetry.
a. Density
The mean densities of natural hailstones have been
measured, for example, by Steyn (1950), Vittori and
di Caporiacco (1959), Macklin et al. (1960) and Mossop
and Kidder (1961). The densities were generally higher
than 0.87 g cm- 3 although a few hailstones had densi-
Embryo
Sphere
FIG. 8. Schematic diagram ofthe device used by Carras, Macklin
and Thwaites (unpublished) to gyrate artificial hailstones in icing
tunnel. An example of an artificial hailstone so formed is also shown .
75
0.8
0.6
E
0.2
0 2 3 5
R (em)
FIG. 9. Collection efficiencies of spherical hailstones as a function
of radius R for different droplet sizes r calculated from the data of
Langmuir and Blodgett (1946). (From Macklin and Bailey, 1966.)
ties as low as 0.80 g cm-3 • List et al. (1970) measured
the densities of individual hailstone layers. The lowest
density measured was 0.82 g cm- 3 which occurred in
an opaque layer. However, in general the densities of
the layers ranged from 0.88 to 0.917 g cm-3 (that of
clear ice). Using x-ray photography, Prodi (1970) also
obtained the densities of individual hailstone layers
and his results are in agreement with those of List
et al. In spongy layers the density will be higher
than those of pure ice due to entrapped water. How-
ever, such layers are apparently rare (Section 3c). For
most computational purposes the hailstone density may
be taken to be approximately constant with a value of
0.90 g cm- 3 •
b. Collection efficiency
The collection efficiencies of smooth spheres for
small droplets have been computed theoretically by
Langmuir and Blodgett (1946). Using these data,
Macklin and Bailey ( 1966) calculated the collection
efficiency of spherical hailstones with radii up to 5 em
for cloud droplets of radius between 5 and 30 JLm. The
collection efficiency decreased as the hailstone radius
increased, and as the droplet radius decreased (Fig. 9).
Subsequently, Macklin and Bailey ( 1968) measured the
collection efficiencies of artificial hailstones with pro-
nounced surface lobes. They found no significant
difference between the values for the artificial hail-
stones and those for smooth spheres of the same cross-
sectional area. They did find, however, that at an air-
76
3.0 r - - - - , - - - - , . - -
2.0
1.0
3 •. 8 IC'
R~
2 3
R (C'I>)
FIG. 10. Values of the heat transfer coefficient x as a function of
the Reynolds number for artificial hailstones. The error bars
represent one standard deviation. An approximate scale of hailstone
radius R is included. For comparison the curve for smooth spheres
is also shown. (From Bailey and Macklin, 1968b.)
speed of 30 m s- 1 the measured collection efficiencies
for artificial hailstones between 0.5 and 4 em were 5 to
15% lower than those predicted by Langmuir and
Blodgett (see also Carras and Macklin, 1973). The
difference increased with decreasing airspeed and at an
airspeed of 15 m s- 1 the collection efficiency was some
20% lower than the value given by Langmuir and
Blodgett. For the growth of approximately spherical
hailstones beyond the embryo stage, values for the
collection efficiency may be calculated from the data
given by Langmuir and Blodgett, provided that these
are reduced by some 10 to 15%.
Bailey and Macklin (1968a) found that the growth of
the lobes in artificial hailstones was almost pronounced
with small droplets (:5 15 ~m radius). The fall-off in
collection efficiency with increasing radius for small
droplets explains the formation of cusped lobes in hail-
stones. A smooth surface is an inherently unstable
manner of growth for large hail. The collection
efficiency of any relatively small irregularity on the
surface is enhanced because of its smaller radius of
curvature and the irregularity grows at the expense of
the immediately adjacent areas. Presumably the
average spacing between the lobes is determined by
the overall airflow around the hailstone.
c. The drag coefficient
Most measurements of the drag coefficients of hail-
stones and of hailstone models have been made with
PART I: HAIL PHYSICS
the hailstones in fixed orientations in a wind tunnel
(e.g., List, 1959; Macklin and Ludlam, 1961; Carte,
1964; Young and Browning, 1967; Bailey and Macklin,
1968a; Roos, 1972; Roos and Carte, 1973). Some of
these authors also attempted to measure the fall-
speeds, and hence infer drag coefficients, of hailstone
models in free fall. The drag coefficients for most
approximately spherical hailstones lay between 0.5 and
0.6. For relatively smooth hailstones the drag coef-
ficient is affected by small-scale surface roughness so
that they enter the supercritical flow regime where the
drag coefficient falls markedly to values of about 0.2
(Willis e t a/. , 1964; Young and Browning, 1967; Bailey
and Macklin, 1968a). This occurs at a hailstone radius
of about 5 em. However, large hailstones with
pronounced protuberances do not exhibit such be-
3
haviour (Bailey and Macklin, 1968a; Roos, 1972). It
appears that the airflow around them is already
turbulent as they approach the critical Reynolds
' 5
number so that their behavior is not markedly affected.
A reasonable value for the drag coefficient of roughly
spherical hailstones is therefore about 0.55.
d. H eat transfer coefficient
The rate of heat transfer from hailstone models with
surface protuberances has been investigated by, for
example, Aufdermaur and Joos (1967), Bailey and
Macklin (1968b), Schuepp and List (1969a, b) and
Schuepp (1971). The measurements most applicable to
hailstones are those of Bailey and Macklin (1968b) .
They determined the rate of melting of artificial hail-
stones, having realistic lobed surfaces, in the airstream
of a wind tunnel and so deduced values of the heat
transfer coefficient as a function of the Reynolds
number. Their results are shown in Fig. 10. The curve
drawn through the experimental points represents the
mean values of their data and the error bars are one
standard deviation. For comparison the values they
obtained for smooth ice is also shown. The two sets of
values begin to diverge sharply at a Reynolds number of
about 6 x 10\ corresponding to a hailstone radius of
some 2 em. The critical liquid water concentrations
deduced from these values are shown in Fig. 11 . The
critical liquid water concentrations are approximately
independent of hailstone radius. This explains why hail-
stones can grow to large size without becoming exces-
sively spongy at relatively low ambient temperatures.
6. Methods of analysis
a. Isotopic composition
As indicated in Section 3e, preferential condensation
of H 20 18 and HDO molecules produces an enrichment
of 0 18 and deuterium in the cloud droplets as they rise.
W. C. MACKLIN 77

This enrichment can be calculated provided certain

simplifying assumptions are made. These assumptions
are: 1) that there is no mixing with outside air as the 10

parcel of air rises, i.e., the ascent is adiabatic, 2) that

the initial isotopic composition of the air feeding the
,;;-
updraught does not change throughout the life of the 'e
storm, and 3) that the mixing ratio of the air feeding the _§.&
updraught remains constant, i.e., the wet bulb potential
~
temperature does not change during the lifetime of the
i storm. It is also assumed that the cloud droplets are

in isotopic equilibrium with the vapor at all times as

they ascend. This is reasonable as the relaxation times
for exchange processes in the case of cloud droplets
are fractions of a second. This assumption has been oL--J--~--~-~-~-~
0 0 2 4 6
confirmed experimentally by Stewart (1975). R (em)
The assumption of adiabatic ascent gives
FIG. II. Values of the critical liquid water concentrations We as a
(12) function of the hailstone radius R for different ambient temperatures
calculated from the heat transfer data in Fig. 10 and the collection
where m 0 is the total mass of water substance in the efficiencies in Fig. 9. (From Macklin and Bailey, 1968b.)
ascending parcel of air, mL is the mass of water con-
densed at some arbitrary height and m v is the residual It may be shown that the denominator in Fig. (17) is
mass of vapour at that height. Further, there is con- close to unity and it is immediately seen that 8DL varies
servation of the molecular species so that approximately linearly with 8D\r. There is also a
m 0 N\r = mLNL + mvNv, (13) dependence on Fv = m vlm 0 , i.e., on variations in the
mixing ratio of the air. However, Knight et al. (1975)
where N~ is the initial mole fraction of HDO (H 2 0 1s)
have shown that this is of secondary importance for
molecules in the ascending air.
values of 8Dd 80 1s) in the supercooled region of the
It is customary to express the isotopic enrichment
cloud.
8D(80 1s) relative to the isotopic values of Standard
Values of SDL (SOls) may be calculated for any level
Mean Ocean Water (see Craig, 1961). The enrichment
in the cloud from Eq. ( 17) for the aerological sounding
is then defined as
appropriate to a hailstorm, given the value of SD~ (or
8D = N 8 1Nsr- 1 , (14) the initial value of SObs). By measuring the SD or S0 1s
where N s and N sr are the mole fractions in the sample values in the various layers ofthe hailstones which fell
and in SMOW, respectively. Eq. (13) becomes from the storm, it is possible in principle to determine
the levels in the cloud at which the layers were formed,
m 0 8D~ = mL8DL + mvf>Dv , (15) i.e., it is possible to obtain the hailstone trajectory
where f>Div i& the initial deuterium value for the vapor, R(Z). However, in practice the initial values of SDv
and separation factor a (see Eq. (11)) is given by and 80¢8 in the air feeding the updraft are generally
unknown. Macklin et al. (1970) overcame this difficulty
8DL + 1 by assuming that the most isotopically enriched layers
a= (16)
8Dv + 1 in the hailstone were formed at about - soc while the
Substituting SDv from Eq. (16) in Eq. (15), and using least enriched layers were formed at about -35°C. In
Eq. (12) to eliminate mL, this way they were able to calculate the range of initial
values of SDv and S018 • They found that they were
8D~ + ~ Fv then able to obtain the trajectory of the hailstone which
a they examined to within about 300 m (see section 7).
8DL = - - - - - (17)
E As noted in Section 3e, the presence of the isotope
1- -Fv tritium in hailstones is due to a different mechanism to
a
that of deuterium or 0 1s. In clear air the concentration
where E = a - 1 and F v = mvl m 0 • A similar expression of HTO generally increases with height. Consequently,
may be derived for 80 1s. Values of a for HDO and for mixing the outside air produces an increase in the
H 2 0 1s have been measured for temperatures down to tritium content of the cloud droplets and hence in the
-20°C by Merlivat and Nief (1967) and Majoube (1971) hailstone layers formed in the regions where mixing
respectively and these may be extrapolated reliably is taking place (Ehhalt, 1967). Measurements of the
to -40°C. concentrations of tritium in the hailstone layers there-
78
30 30
20 20
1-
z 10 10
::l
0
u 0
...J 0 0
<(
1- I~
en
>-
a:: 10
u
FIG. 12. c-axis crystallographic orientation distributions for various air and deposit
temperatures. The crystal count is plotted as a function of the angle between
the c-axes and the radial growth direction. The respective ambient and deposit
temperatures are (a) -10, -7°C, (b) -15, -9°C, (c) -20, -6°C, (d) -25 , -3°C,
(e) -20, -13°C, (f) -30, -5°C. (From Macklin and Rye, 1974.)
fore indicate whether the ascent of air was adiabatic.
As yet, however, little attention has been paid to this
possibility of determining whether or not hailstorm
updrafts are adiabatic.
b. Crystal structure
Both the orientations and sizes of the individual
layers comprising a hailstone change from layer to layer
(Section 3c). by determining experimentally the condi-
tions under which these changes occur in ice formed by
the accretion of supercooled droplets, the crystal layer
structure of hailstones can be interpreted.
1) CRYSTAL ORIENTATION
Aufdermaur et al. (1963), Levi and Aufdermaur
(1970), Macklin and Rye (1974) and Levi et al. (1974)
have determined the crystallographic orientation dis-
tributions in accreted ice formed in an icing tunnel.
There are peaks in the distributions which, in dry
growth, can be related to the ambient temperature. In
some instances c '-axis distributions (see Section 3c)
have been determined. However, a theoretical study by
Rye and Macklin (1973) has shown that the positions
of the peaks in such distributions are shifted due to
the surface roughness of the deposits. Consequently
the peaks cannot be related uniquely to the ambient
temperature. Accordingly, the present discussion will
be confined to determinations of the c-axis orientation
distributions.
The most extensive work is that of Macklin and
Rye (1974). Following Levi and Aufdermaur (1970),
they used a rotating cylinder as the accreting object.
A thermistor was attached to the surface of the cylinder
so that the temperature of the deposit, as well as the
ambient (i.e., droplet) temperature was continuously
PART I : HAIL PHYSICS
60
(b) 40 {c)
20
recorded. Typical c-axis orientation distributions for
dry growth deposits are shown in Fig. 12. At the
warmer ambient temperatures ( -10 to -15°C) and at
deposit temperatures below about - 2°C there are two
peaks in the distribution, one at about 10° and the
other at 22° (Figs. 12a and b). At temperatures higher
than 10°C there was only one peak at about 10°.
At deposit temperatures above - 2°C the distributions
were more spread and a hump near 90° developed,
indicative of the onset of wet growth (see Levi and
Aufdermaur, 1970, Fig. 1d). At air temperatures
between -20 and - 25°C the first peak diminishes
and becomes rounded off, while the second peak
becomes more dominant and shifts toward 32°. The
significance of the peaks was tested using binomial
statistics and the appropriate probabilities are shown
in the figures. At moderately low ambient temperatures
(--20 to -25°C) and low deposit temperatures (:5-8
and - 3°C), respectively, there is a broad central max-
imum with two other sharp peaks, which appear to be
significant. At low air temperatures (- - 30°C) the
distribution tends to become sinusoidal. This indicates
that pronounced crystallographic reorientation is
taking place (see Rye and Macklin, 1973). At all
temperatures the position of the second peak was found
to be independent of the deposit temperature over the
range of deposit temperatures at which the peak oc-
curred. The position of the peak was also unaffected
by variation of the tunnel airspeed and cylinder
rotation rate. The position of the second peak as a
function of ambient temperature is shown in Fig. 13.
The mechanism producing the peaks is considered to
be as follows. When a supercooled droplet impinges
on an accreting surface whose temperature is below
ooc (i.e., dry growth) freezing takes place in two
stages. Initially a dendritic sheet grows rapidly through
W. C. MACKLIN
the droplet warming it to a temperature near 0°C.
Subsequently, the remainder of the droplet is frozen
by conduction of heat to the underlying surface (see
Macklin and Payne, 1967). For supercoolings larger
than 2-3°C, the direction of growth of the dendrites
is inclined at an angle to the basal plane, the angle
increasing with supercooling (Macklin and Ryan, 1965;
Pruppacher, 1967). Levi and Aufdermaur (1970) sug-
gest that those droplets which freeze by chance with
the initial dendritic sheet parallel to the accreting
surface give rise to preferred orientations in the
bulk ice. The reason for this is that the ice crystals
so formed present the largest cross-sectional area to
later impinging droplets which then take up this
particular orientation by epitaxial growth. This gives
rise to a peak in the crystallographic orientation
distribution corresponding to the growth angle of the
dendrites. It should be noted that the position of the
first peak at 10° is an artefact of the way in which
the orientation distributions are plotted. Rye and
Macklin (1973) point out that the frequency distribu-
tion which should be plotted is the number of crystals
per unit solid angle so that the crystal counts in Fig. 12
should be divided by 2 7T sin1>. When this is done the
first peak in the distribution occurs at oo.
The position of the second peak 1/J shown in Fig. 13
has been related to the data of Pruppacher (1967)
for the angle of growth to the basal plane of ice
dendrites growing in bulk supercooled water. In the
region of overlap, where the growth angle is in-
dependent of ambient temperature, there is good agree-
ment between the two sets of data. This justifies
the mechanism proposed to explain the data.
2) CRYSTAL SIZE
Aufdermaur and Mayes (1965) first showed that the
crystal size in accreted ice deposits is markedly
dependent on the growth conditions. The crystal
lengths change from millimeters to fractions of a milli-
meter at ambient temperatures between about -15 and
-20°C. The transition temperature depended on
whether the growth was wet or dry and, to a much
lesser degree, on the airspeed and droplet size. This
work was extended by Levi and Aufdermaur (1970).
They used rotating cylinders as the accreting objects
and measured quantitatively the temperature of the
deposit during its growth. They categorized the crystals
in terms of the dimension L of the largest crystals
in the deposits, namely, large (L > 2 mm), medium
(0.5 < L < 2 mm) and small (L < 0.5 mm). The
transition from large to small crystals depends
primarily on the air temperature and occurs at
temperatures between -15 and - 24°C. Part of this
rather broad transition region is due, however, to a
79
)~r
20
I
(1)1
I (1) Pruppacher (1967)
I (2) This work
10 I
I
I
I
I
I
0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25
T0 (C)
FIG. 13. The position of the second (growth-angle) peak 1/J as a
function of the ambient temperature T•. Pruppacher's (1967) values
for the angle between the growth direction and the basal plane of
ice dendrites growing in bulk supercooled water are also shown.
(From Macklin and Rye, 1974.)
dependence on the deposit temperature in the dry
growth regime.
A more extensive investigation of the crystal size
in dry growth accreted ice has been carried out by
Rye and Macklin (1975). They determined the mean
lengths and mean maximum widths of the ice crystals in
cylindrical deposits of accreted ice. They found that
there is a general decrease in the mean length from ~8
to 0.25 mm, and in the mean maximum width from ~ 1
to 0.2 mm, as the ambient temperature decreases
from -5 to -30°C. The data for the lengths of the
crystals is given in Fig. 14. At ambient temperatures
above -15°C, there is no dependence of the size of
the ice crystals on the temperature of the deposit. At
ambient temperatures below this value, the crystal
dimensions vary with deposit temperature in a sys-
tematic manner. Rye and Macklin showed that this
dependence on deposit temperature is consistent with
studies of the reorientation of individual supercooled
drops freezing on the surface of a single crystal of ice
of given orientation and temperature. This dependence
is depicted in Fig. 18 below.
It should be noted that there are difficulties in
applying both crystal orientation and crystal size
data to hailstones. It is possible that the crystals in
hailstones have undergone recrystallization, particularly
if they have warmed to ooc prior to collection and
storage. The extent and effects of recrystallization on
the structure is at present unknown. The crystal
80 PART I: HAIL PHYSICS

surrounds it. For deposit temperatures below -1 to

r\
- 2°C, the former process dominates and the latent heat
is conducted rapidly into the hailstone. This heat is then
slowly dissipated through the air boundary layer until
the frozen droplet cools to the mean hailstone

~
6
E
.§ temperature .
I Macklin and Payne (1967) set up a simple model to
1-
(!)
z calculate the subsequent freezing time t1 . The spread
w
droplet is assumed to take the form of a pill-box
~\
...J
4
...J
of radius Sr and height h where
~
CJl 0
>-
0::
u h=~ (18)
z
<(
0 0 3S 2
0
~ 2 0
They then calculated t1 using standard heat conduction
§
0
equations. They showed that the period of subsequent
0 freezing t1 is about ten times the period of initial
freezing, while the cooling period is generally about ten
times t 1 . Using Macklin and Payne's calculations,
T0 (Cl Carras and Macklin (1975a) showed that the freezing
rates of cloud droplets range from some I0- 4 em s- 1 in
FIG. 14. The mean lengths of crystals in accreted ice deposits as a
function of the ambient temperatures Ta. (From Rye and Macklin, wet growth to about 1 em s- 1 in extreme dry growth.
1975.) Carras and Macklin (1975a) determined the air
bubble concentrations in bulk water frozen over this
structure of hailstones will also be affected if the range of freezing rates using photomicroscopy,
hailstones accrete ice crystals in the cloud as well as counting and sizing all bubbles over 1 JLm radius.
droplets. This certainly happens in the wet growth These showed that the concentrations of bubbles
regime and may also occur in the dry growth regime formed in the ice was a function of the freezing rate,
(Macklin, 1961). with a slight dependence on the mass solubility of air.
They then measured the air bubble concentrations in
c. Air bubble structure cylindrical deposits of accreted ice formed in an icing
tunnel in both the dry and wet growth regimes. The
The formation of air bubbles, and the manner in
which they determine the opacity of accreted ice,
has been discussed in detail by Carras and Macklin 100 6
(1975a, b). The essential factor which determines the x10 c Ta= -5C • -30
concentration of air bubbles formed during the freez- + Ta:-7.5
X Ta:-10
ing of any sample of water is the freezing rate (see fE 80 V Ta:-15
also Carte, 1961; Bari and Hallett, 1974). The size s 0 Ta:-20
distribution of the bubbles is then determined by the z A Ta:-25
Q
• Ta:-30
amount of air dissolved in the sample, i.e., on the 1-
~ 60
ambient pressure. 1-
z
w
When a supercooled droplet is accreted in dry u
z
0
growth, it spreads before freezing. A convenient (.,) 40
w
measure of the spreading is the ratio of the final radius m
..J

to the initial radius termed the spreading factor S m

:;)
m
(Macklin and Payne, 1967, 1969). As already noted 20
(Section 6b), it is assumed that there are two phases
in the freezing process. In the initial phase a dendritic
c
sheet grows through the droplets in a manner analogous
to that of bulk water freezing. The fraction of the 0 -5 -10 -15
droplet which can freeze in this way is c wC T m - Ta)l Lt> Td (C)
the remainder of the liquid in the droplet being FIG. 15. Air bubble concentrations in cylindrical accreted ice
warmed to 0°C. In the subsequent phase, the remaining deposits as a function of the deposit temperature for various values
of the ambient temperature. The values calculated from the bulk
liquid is frozen by the conduction of heat into the water data are shown as dashed lines. (From Carras and Macklin,
hailstone or into the air boundary layer which 1975a.)
W. C. MACKLIN 81

c Tos-5C
+ To o-7.5
X Tos-10
vTo:-15
'? 5
0 Toe -20
E
~ A t. • -25
z • Ta:-30
0
10 7
~
a::
I- 5
z
ILl
u
z Bulk Water-.
0
u
ILl 10 II Wet I
-1 J I
-4
d To=-10C
...J - Td(C)
m
m 5 To=-20C
::::> -1 -2 -4 -8 -12 Td(C)
m
To:-30C
XV -1 -2 -4 -8 -12Td(C)

5 5 10- 5 10- 5
FREEZING RATE (em sec- 1)
FIG. 16. Dependence of the air bubble concentration on mean freezing rate for both
wet and dry growth regimes. The curve shown is that for bulk water. Deposit temperatures
corresponding to values of the freezing rate are also shown. (From Carras and Macklin,
1975a.)

air bubble concentration is shown in Fig. 15 as a func-
tion of the deposit temperature for various values of the
ambient temperature in the dry growth regime. In-
cluded in the diagram are values for the concentrations
calculated from the bulk water data for the freezing
rates appropriate to the droplet size distribution used.
The spreading factors were obtained from Macklin and
Payne (1969). There is a pronounced dependence on
the ambient temperature. However, the calculations
showed that this dependence is simply due to the
differences in the effective latent heat of the droplets,
L 1 + Cw(Tm - Ta), which are ambient temperature
dependent. This is shown in Fig. 16 in which the
bubble concentration is plotted against the calculated
mean freezing rates of the droplet distribution. The
freezing rates in the wet growth regime were cal-
culated using heat transfer data for cylinders, deduced
from the data of Carras and Macklin (1973). There is
no longer any dependence on the ambient temperature
and the bubble concentrations in the accreted ice
deposits are in good agreement with those obtained
in frozen bulk water. In the dry growth regime the
concentrations range from about 106 to 108 cm-3 while
in the wet growth regime the concentrations generally
lie between 105 to 106 cm-3 • The reason for the
marked change in the concentration in going from the
dry to the wet growth regimes is that the freezing rate
in the dry growth regime is very sensitive to deposit
temperatures near 0°C. It should pe noted that the
bubble concentrations can be inferred from the trans-
mittance of the accreted ice (Carras and Macklin,
1975b). This is a far less tedious procedure than
actually counting the bubbles.
The mean air bubble radii obtained in the accreted
ice samples are shown in Fig. 17. The mean radii in the
wet growth regime are a few tens of microns. How-
ever, in the dry growth regime the mean radii are
only a few microns and there is a marked disparity
between the values in the accreted ice deposits and
those in bulk water as the wet growth regime is
approached. This is undoubtedly due to the diffusion of
air out of the spread droplets during freezing since, at
relatively high deposit temperatures, the height of the
spread droplets is small and the freezing times com-
paratively long. An approximate calculation, based on
the time-dependent diffusion equation for air diffusing
in bulk water, confirmed this.
Each sample of accreted ice was classified visually
as clear, transparent (with a few large bubbles) or
opaque. A composite diagram of this data with that of
Rye and Macklin (1975) for the mean crystal lengths
is given in Fig. 18. It should be noted, however, that
the opacity of spongy ice depends on how it is finally
frozen (Knight and Knight, 1968, 1973). In the present
case the spongy ice samples were frozen by ventilating
them in the icing tunnel after the droplet injection
82 PART I: HAIL PHYSICS

c Ta =-5C
+ To= -7.5
X Ta=-10
e V Ta:-15
.5 0 Ta:-20

(/) A Ta:-25
::I • Ta=-30
0
<( Wet x Bulk Water
a:: 10 Growth /
w
al 5
m
::I
m

5 ~--=-----'----'---:. Ta =-10 C
-1 -2 -4 -8 T (C)

Ta:-30C
-1 -2 -4 -8 -12Td(C)

10-4 5 10._'1 5 10..2 5 1Ci1 5

FREEZING RATE (em sec- 1)
FIG. 17. Dependence of the mean air bubble radius on the mean freezing rate
for both wet and dry growth regimes. The curve shown is that for bulk water.
Deposit temperatures corresponding to values of the freezing rate are also shown.
(From Carras and Macklin, 1975a.)

system had been turned off. This diagram explains a
number of features of the crystal and air bubble layer
structure of natural hailstones. Because of the more
marked dependence on deposit temperature, opacity
changes occur over a much wider range of ambient
temperatures than do changes in the crystal size. This
explains why there are many more opacity variations
in hailstones than there are crystal layers (see Sec-
tion 3c), since changes in the deposit temperature are
readily produced by fluctuations in the liquid water
concentration. Thus crystal layers may grow right
through opaque layers at relatively warm ambient
temperatures, as noted by Mossop and Kidder (1961)
and Knight and Knight (1971b).
7. Interpretation of hailstone structure
The procedural steps in a complete quantitative
analysis and interpretation of the structure of a hail-

FRACTION OF
Td (C) LIQUID WATER
-30 -20 -10 0 0.4 0.8
-3o ...-------.----.,..--...--,----.r------.------, o.25 e
0 .§
0.5 .I:
1-
(!)
z
w
-20 _J

2 _J
<(
.-... 1-
8 .(/)
>-
~ a::
4 u
-10 z
<(
w
0 Opaque ·--- sc 6 ~

T Transparent
c Clear
0
FIG. 18. Composite diagram showing both the opacity of accreted ice deposits and
the mean crystal length as a function of the deposit and ambient temperatures in
the dry growth regime and the fraction of unfrozen water in the wet growth regime.
(From Macklin eta/., 1976.)
W. C. MACKLIN
stone is given in Table 2, adapted from Macklin et al.
(1976). The first step is to determine the hailstone
trajectory, i.e., to find R(Ta) and hence R(Z); dR!dZ
may then be obtained. In principle the trajectory may
be ascertained either from the isotopic composition
or from the crystal structure (c-axis orientation distri-
butions or crystal size) of the hailstone layers. How-
ever, it must be emphasized that both these methods
suffer the deficiencies indicated in Sections 6a and 6b,
respectively. The isotopic method is based on two
fairly stringent assumptions, namely, that the ascent is
adiabatic and that the isotopic composition of the air
feeding the updraught remains unchanged throughout
the life of the storm. The crystal analysis method de-
pends on the hailstone not being subject to gross
recrystallization and not having accreted significant
concentrations of ice crystals during its growth.
The second step is to determine the air bubble
concentrations. These are functions of the droplet
radius and impact speed and the deposit and ambient
temperatures. Since the fallspeed of an approximately
spherical hailstone is known as a function ofR (Eq. (2)),
the impact speeds of droplets of various sizes can
be calculated from the data of Langmuir and Blodgett
(1946). Thus the bubble concentrations can be found
as functions ofR, r, Ta and Ta, i.e., n = n(R, r, Ta, Ta)
where r is here the median volume radius. Since Ta
is already known for a given R then, assuming a value
for the cloud droplet radius r, the temperature at which
the hailstone layer was deposited can be calculated
from the data of Carras and Macklin (1975a). Since Ta
and T a are known it is now possible to deduce a value
for the effective liquid water concentration EW from
the heat balance equation (Eq. (9)). This then gives the
actual liquid water concentration W. Finally, since
dR/dz is now also known, values of U-V and hence
U may be calculated from Eq. (5). It should be noted
that, at the present time, these calculations are re-
stricted to hailstones having approximately spherical
symmetry for the reasons given in Section 5. Further,
a cloud droplet size must be assumed. How this is
chosen is discussed further below.
TABLE 2. Steps in the method of analysis
(after Macklin et al., 1976).
Isotopic composition/crystal
structure -->R(T.)-->R(Z)-->-
Air bubble concentration
given R, r, T.
given T., Td -+EW from Eq. (9)
--> W since E is known as a
function of R, r
. dR
given-
dZ
-->U - V--> U from Eq. (5)
83
-40
0
I
01
-50
0
0
"0
0
0 0
;,!! 0
~ -60
0
(J()
I V
I /V
I I
-70 X @~ ://
X)( X
~ ®x 1/
/(
®:
I
-80~------~-------L------~------~~
2 3 4
R (em)
FIG. 19. Measured values of 8D as a function of hailstone radius.
The equivalent spherical model of the hailstone is depicted in the
upper right-hand comer and the symbols used for samples from the
various layers are as indicated. The opaque layers are hatched. (From
Macklin et al., 1970.)
There have been a few attempts at interpreting
hailstone structure. Macklin et al. (1970) determined
the isotopic composition of a hailstone some 7 em in
maximum dimension. Their results for deuterium are
shown in Fig. 19. While there is an overall decrease
in the 8D values with increasing radius, there is a
discontinuity in the data of a radius of 1.2 em. By
assuming that the hailstone grew between the -5
and - 35°C levels in the cloud, they obtained a initial
value of 8Dv of -83o/oo (see Section 6a). This is about
the value encountered in maritime air (Craig and
Gordon, 1965, Fig. 4). They then obtained the trajectory
shown in Fig. 20. It appears that the hailstone
underwent two ascents in the updraught. To explain
this Macklin et al. invoked the hailstone recycling
hypothesis, envisaged by Browning and Ludlam (1962).
By determining the adiabatic liquid water concentra-
tion for the storm from the appropriate aerological
sounding, they also obtained the updraught profile
from Eq. (5). This was consistent with that obtained
from the parcel theory.
Knight et al. (1975) measured the deuterium content
dR
in nine large hailstones from three storms. They also
determined the tritium concentration in one of the nine.
dZ
Typical results are shown in Fig. 21. Because of the
assumptions underlying the quantitative interpretation
of such data, Knight et al. simply chose to interpret
their data qualitatively. They assume that the 8D
values decrease with increasing altitude, as given by the
quantitative theory. On this basis, seven of the nine
hailstones had relatively simple trajectories (see Fig.
21a), while two of them showed discontinuities similar
 84
CK-30
9'r-----------------------------------~

I,
It -10
I 0 10 20 30 40
RADIUS (mml

CK-40
1,'
(
0

2 3
R (em)
FIG. 20. The trajectory of the hailstone deduced from the data
in Fig. 19. (From Macklin et al., 1970.)

to that observed by Macklin et al. (1970) (see Fig. 21b).

Of interest is the data shown in Fig. 21c in which
the deuterium and tritium contents are compared.
The tritium values suggest that, in the early and later
stages, the hailstone grew in a cloud which was mixed
with outside air having relatively high tritium values.
In Fig. 1 of their paper, Knight et al. show that
the 8D values in clear air are relatively low and
decrease with height from about - 140 to - 260%o.
Consequently, mixing with outside air will tend to
reduce the 8D values in the cloud droplets. It is
possible that the deuterium values obtained simply
reflect the mixing. However, this suggestion needs to
be confirmed with more analyses of a similar kind.
Knight et al. also examined qualitatively the varia-
tions in opacity and crystal size within the hailstones.
They comment that the isotope profiles are generally
simpler than the structural profiles. As a rule the
major changes in opacity and crystal size are accom-
panied by relatively minor changes in 8D. This implies
that the structural changes took place without a marked
change in altitude, i.e., ambient temperature. The
only other parameter which can change independently
of height is the deposit temperature, which can change
due to fluctuations in the liquid water concentration.

FIG. 21. BD values as a function of hailstone radius for three hail-

stones. In the third hailstone (labelled Chadron) the tritium values
are also given. The opacity of the layers in the hailstones is 10 40
0 20
indicated schematically at the bottom of each figure. (From Knight
et al., 1975.) RADIUS (mml
W. C. MACKLIN 85

Consequently, it seems likely that the structural (a) (b)

features of the hailstones can be interpreted using 3
Fig. 18.
A detailed analysis of the crystal and air bubble struc-
tures of six large roughly spherical hailstones, two
from each of three storms, has been carried out by
2
. .-":v·-· ',',, . •----
............

Macklin eta/. (1976). They used the c-axis orientation TEXAS ~""·--~(
"-'.::•'
distributions and lengths of the crystals in the various (c) (d)
layers to obtain the hailstone trajectories. These are 3
shown in Fig. 22. Both the orientation distributions
and crystal lengths give similar trajectories. Following ""- yo

~
the procedure outlined in Table 2, they then deter- ,•
mined the air bubble concentrations both by direct \/' •'
,," ... It"'...

photomicroscopy and using the transmittance values WICKEPIN

(Carras and Macklin, 1975a, b). The concentrations and
size distributions of the bubbles showed that the layers
in all of the hailstones were dry, even though the
3
.
(e)
\
(I)

~ -· ~
opacity ranged from densely opaque to clear. They
further showed that the crystal sizes and bubble
concentrations could have been produced only by
2 \ /.
\ ... __....
\l.,.'::
cloud droplets less than some 30 ~tm radius. Calcula-
KIN 1KIN
tions of the deposit temperatures and hence the
effective liquid water concentrations EW were then 0 2 3 1 2 3
HAILSTONE RADIUS (em)
made for a range of droplet sizes, from which the
actual liquid water concentrations were obtained. FIG. 23. Values of the effective liquid water concentration EW
as a function of hailstone radius for the six hailstones whose
These were compared with the adiabatic values for trajectories are depicted in Fig. 22. (From Macklin et al., 1976.)

(a) (b)
-25 the storms deduced from the appropriate aerological
soundings. Only a droplet size of about 10 ~tm gave
3 r/~ -20 sensible liquid water concentrations. Smaller values of
-15
the droplet radius gave liquid water concentrations in
excess of the adiabatic values while large droplet
2
-10 radii gave liquid water concentrations which were too
TEXAS
low. Accordingly, Macklin et al. chose a droplet radius
4 of 10 ~tm to calculate the effective liquid water
(c) (d) concentrations. Such small droplets are necessary to

~
-25

J t'1
produce the lobe structure of hailstones (Bailey and
e3 -20 Macklin, 1968a). The effective liquid water concentra-
8
~ I
I
-15 ,!
tions are shown in Fig. 23 and the values lie between
,.; I
I
about 1 and 3 g m-3 •
~ 2
( -10 In some cases the value of EW remains approxi-
WICKEPIN
mately constant [(a), (b), and (d)], while in others there
4 is an overall fall in EW with increasing radius [(c), (e)
(I) and (t)]. Presumably this depends on where the

~ ~
-25
hailstones grew in the respective updraughts. Super-
3 -20 imposed on the general trends are fluctuations of up
-15
to some 30%. These can only have been caused by
2
corresponding fluctuations in the liquid water con-
-10 centration. Both hailstones (a) and (b) experienced the
KIN KIN
same percentage decrease in EW at about the same
1 radius and this gave rise to densely opaque layers in
0 2 3 1 2 3 these hailstones (see Macklin eta/., 1976, Fig. 2). Such
HAILSTONE RADIUS (em)
fluctuations in the liquid water concentration are
FIG. 22. The trajectories of six hailstones as function of hailstone required to explain the air bubble and crystal structures
radius deduced from the c-axis orientation distributions (dots) and
crystal lengths (crosses) respectively. Z 0 is the height of the freezing of hailstones. It should be noted that the hailstones
level and Ta the ambient temperature. (From Macklin et al., 1975.) could not have grown to large size in zones of ac-
86
cumulated water, which imply large drops, as en-
visaged by Sulakvelidze (1967). This conclusion was
also reached by Browning (1967b), but on more
qualitative grounds.
Values of U-V were calculated from Eq. (5).
Although there were variations from one hailstone to
another, the updraught speed was generally within
±2 m s- 1 of the hailstone fallspeed. This means that
the hailstones remained balanced in the updraught for
the period of their growth. Since the fallspeeds of the
hailstones increased from some 15 to 40 m s- 1 as
they grew from 0.4 to 2.9 em radius, this means that the
updraughts experienced by the hailstones increased
with time.
There are two possible explanations for this.
Browning and Foote (1975) have developed a three-
dimensional quasi-stationary model of a severe storm
on the basis of multiple radar and aircraft observa-
tions. Their model is essentially an extension of that
of Browning and Ludlam (1962). From an analysis of
the possible trajectories of the hailstones, Browning
and Foote conclude that the large hail which fell from
this storm ( -8 em diameter) grew by moving around
the central core of the updraft. It is conceivable
that those hailstones which move around the updraft
core in such a way that they are always approximately
balanced in the updraft, grow the largest. The other
alternative is that the hailstones grew in updrafts whose
strength increased with time.
8. Concluding remarks
Over the past decade or so considerable understand-
ing of the physical processes involved in hailstone
growth has been gained. It is now possible to set out
the procedural steps necessary to give a complete
quantitative interpretation of hailstone structure and
some progress has been made towards this end. In
principle the hailstone trajectories can be obtained from
the isotopic composition or crystal structure. The air
bubble structure can be used to give sensible values
for the liquid water concentrations and droplet sizes
in the clouds from which the updrafts experienced
by the hailstones can be obtained. This data can then
be integrated with that obtained from radar studies
and aircraft observations to give a more complete
knowledge of the dynamical structure of storms which
produce large hail.
There are, however, certain assumptions which
underly the analytical techniques used to obtain the
hailstone trajectories, and these have yet to be fully
confirmed. Further, a complete analysis of the air
bubble structure requires that the aerodynamic
behavior of oblate hailstones be known. Future
research needs to be directed towards clarifying these
issues.
PART I: HAIL PHYSICS
Acknowledgments. The author is indebted to the
Advanced Study Program of the National Center for
Atmospheric Research for the Postdoctoral Fellowship
during the tenure of which this paper was written. He
wishes to thank Dr. C. A. Knight and Mrs. N.C. Knight
for permission to reproduce the photographs of the
Coffeyville hailstone.
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88
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PART I: HAIL PHYSICS
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and isotopic exchange of falling water drops. J. Geophys. Res.,
80, 1133-1146.
Steyn, K., 1950: Public Works of South Africa, Vol. 10, No. 75.
Sulakvelidze, G. K., 1967: Rainstorms and Hail, Gidromet.,
Leningrad. [Translated Israel Program for Scientific Transla-
tions, Jerusalem, 1969.]
Vittori, 0., and G. di Caporiacco, 1959: The density of hailstones.
Nubila, 2, 51-57.
Weickmann, H., 1953: Observational data on the formation of
precipitation in cumulonimbus clouds. Thunderstorm Elec-
tricity, H. R. Byers, Ed., University of Chicago Press, 66-
138.
- - , 1964: The language of hailstorms and hailstones. Nubila, 6,
7-51.
Willis, J. T., K. A. Browning and D. Atlas, 1964: Radar observations
of ice spheres in free fall. J. Atmos. Sci., 21, 103-108.
Young, R. G. and K. A. Browning, 1967: Wind tunnel tests of
simulated spherical hailstones with variable roughness. J.
Atmos. Sci., 24, 58-62.
 Response to
''The Characteristics of Natural Hailstones and Their Interpretation'':
Laboratory Hail Research-A Critical Assessment

ROLAND LIST

Department of Physics, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada

1. Introduction lemon the basis of present knowledge. However, this

After successful laboratory experiments at the Swiss
Snow and Avalanche Research Institute on the icing of
electrical cables in air containing supercooled water
droplets (Melcher, 1951; de Quervain, 1954), it was a
logical step for the Swiss Hail Commission under the
leadership of Professors M. de Quervain, R. Saenger
and J. Ackeret to plan laboratory studies on hail
formation. The basic idea was to consider shape, size,
bubble and crystal structure of natural hailstones as
carriers of their life history. Laboratory investigations
on artificially grown hail were supposed to provide
clues for the interpretation of the hailstone characteris-
tics in terms of the icing conditions in hail clouds which
lead to their growth.
Consequently systematic studies were started in
1953, a first hail tunnel was built (List, 1959a) and first
results were published (List, 1959b, 1960). Icing
investigations of cylinders (Macklin 1961, 1962) and
spheres (Mossop and Kidder, 1962; Kidder and Carte,
1964) followed immediately. The respective groups
were joined in the investigations of natural hailstones,
their properties and behaviour by others (notably
Knight and Knight, 1970a and b). Aerodynamics, heat
and mass transfer, density, crystallographic structure
and air bubble size distributions and patterns were
explored and a first composite picture started to shape
up, as it is summarized by Macklin (1978).
2. The interpretation of hailstone interpretation
Macklin et al. (1976) and Macklin (1978) proposed a
scheme by which a hailstone can be decoded in terms of
the icing conditions like height, temperature and liquid
water content which it encountered during its growth.
This is a valid attempt because every effort was made to
explore all the important relationships as they are either
presently known or expected to exist. However, it has
to be recognized that this type of investigation is at best
a first order approximation. Too many aspects had to be
explored under conditions which do not effectively
simulate natural conditions (like the implicit assump-
tions that the icing of slowly rotating cylinders or slab
ice formation are representative of hailstone growth).
Macklin (1978) approached the interpretation prob-
89
response rather considers the evolution of laboratory
hail research into the future and how the basis for
present attempts at identification of icing conditions is
more and more eroded. It should be recognized now,
also on the basis of Macklin's own work, that
hailgrowth requires a more involved treatment than in
the old theories. The first steps for a new generation of
hail theories have already been taken and are based on
aerodynamic studies of gyrating oblate spheroids (Kry
and List, 1974). Hailstones with such principal shapes
(including indented tri-axial ellipsoids) are the most
common type and it is reasonable at this time to
concentrate on such forms. Macklin et al. (1976) report
icing experiments with gyrating hailstones, while
experiments in the pressure controlled Swiss Hail
Tunnel II by List's group in 1972 and 1974 are still in the
process of evaluation. Nevertheless, Joe et al. (1976)
and List et al. (1976) give some first indications of what
is to be expected. Macklin et al. (1976) demonstrate in
their tunnel (at laboratory pressure) how the shape
varies with icing conditions; List's group concentrated,
among other things, on growth rates and collection
efficiencies.
The· impact of the gyrating mode of free fall on the
understanding and interpretation of hailstone growth
will be considerable. For this mode, few if any
previously accepted concepts will withstand the newest
development because of the following:
1) The specific spinning top aerodynamics will affect
the heat and mass transfer (Stagg, 1975) and, thus, the
character and location of ice deposition.
2) The collection of liquid water by falling spheroidal
or ellipsoidal particles will occur in selected surface
areas, leading to substantial local variations in the
surface temperature (10°C and more) of given growing
hailstones.
3) The effect of air density variations needs to be
considered (List et al., 1976).
4) There is, for example, no correlation in sight
between air bubbles or crystal sizes and icing condi-
tions of the type List and Agnew (1973) observed for
particles rotating about a fixed, horizontal axis, or as
Levi and Aufdermaur (1970) and Macklin et al. (1976)
demonstrated (mostly) for cylinders.
90
5) While the collision efficiency of droplets(> 20 ~-tm)
is roughly unity, the net collision efficiency (based on
mass accretion) can be as low as 0.15, depending on
icing conditions [Carras and Macklin (1973) for
cylinders and artificial hailstones; Joe et al. (1976), for
spheroids; and List et al., (1976), for cylinders].
Thereby, different types of water losses are occurring
which depend on the state of motion, like rotation rates.
Bouncing dominates at low rotation frequencies or
during oscillatory motions, shedding at high spin rates.
6) The low net collection efficiencies imply the
possibility of considerable heating or cooling of the
hailstone by the shed water, depending on its tempera-
ture and phase mixture at the time of separation (List,
1977a).
7) The new implications of the commonly occurring
shedding also affect the formation of spongy ice.
It can be shown that icing conditions could occur at
which no spongy ice is formed, no matter how high the
liquid water content is (List, 1977a). Observed collec-
tion efficiencies of0.15 at- 20°C also imply that, for this
case, only 60% of the initially collected water which
could freeze right away due to its supercooling, is
ultimately accreted. Thus, the Schumann-Ludlam-
Limit is far from being approached. Macklin's (1978)
heat and mass transfer treatment is quite inadequate in
view ofthe newly appreciated effects. List (1978) gives
a more complete treatment for spherical and spheroidal
particles, based on the new cylinder equations (List,
1977a).
There may be other implications which are not
recognized at the moment. One thing, however, is
obvious: the picture by Macklin ( 1978) does not apply to
spheroidal hailstones. Their growth will be better
understood in a few years when a new generation of
composite growth models has been established. But
that will not be the last word either, because
aerodynamic theory needs to be expanded to account
for truly freely falling bodies (including damping forces
and moments). This requires the type of investigation
explored by Knight and Knight (1970b), a method
which has been made more accessible by equipment as
described by Stewart et al. (1976). Such experiments
need to be followed up by icing experiments involving
freely falling bodies, etc.
These comments should make it abundantly clear
that laboratory research is continuously evolving and
that caution has to be exercised in the interpretation of
the scientific achievement, which is a priori written up
in a "positive" fashion. There is also no promise in
using simplistic one-dimensional models on hail growth
in connection with the stratification and evaluation of
hail suppression experiments.
PART I: HAIL PHYSICS
3. Microphysical-dynamic feedback in hail modelling
Another point needs to be made about hail growth
models. The effects which particle ensembles impose
on the motion of precipitation particles cannot be
ignored any longer. They need to be considered by a
Lagrangian treatment of the type explored by Clark and
List (1971), List and Clark (1973) and Girard and List
(1975). Without tracing of many "marker" particles it is
not possible to predict particle motions. Hence, thf;
introduction and tracing of single particles into given
flow fields of a hail producing cloud-without allowing
ensemble feedback-and calculating their growth
cannot produce any reliable information, even when
seemingly supporting observations are found some-
where in nature. This is also the case where average
particle velocities are used together with a bulk drag.
The modelling and understanding of hail formation
has been considerably advanced by Soviet scientists
(for example, Sulakvelidze et al., 1967; Burtsev et al.,
1973; Kachurin et al., 1973) and through sophisticated
computer calculations by the South Dakota Group (for
example, Wisner et al., 1972). The present close
connection with laboratory research is very beneficial
and provides the feedback necessary for the efficient
deployment of limited resources. However, the models
on hailgrowth have to evolve also. Three-dimensional
models are required which simulate natural (three-
dimensional) turbulence with its decay of the large
eddies. The smoothing effect of two-dimensional
"computer" turbulence on the air flow is detrimental to
a better simulation of the pulsating and fluctuating
updrafts as they are observed in real hail clouds.
4. The rain-hail connection
At one time, hail research and hail suppression was
encouraged when it seemed that hail could be more
easily understood than rain-because only hailstones
have their history imprinted in their structure, not
raindrops. Then, economic aspects of food production
shifted the emphasis more to rain. However, a new era
for hail may be on the horizon because of the work of
Gillespie and List (1976) and List (1977b) who show that
raindrops with diameters of 3-5 mm have to originate
from (melting) ice particles larger than 5 mm in
diameter, i.e. hailstones. There exists only a very small
probability that raindrops can grow into particles larger
than 3 mm by the collection mechanism, because
breakup by collision severely limits their growth. This
leads to the conclusion that melted larger ice particles
are the source for large raindrops. Therefore, hail
formation is an inseparable part of (cold) rain forma-
tion.
ROLAND LIST
5. Final comments
In summary, it can be stated that the idea of using the
hailstone properties to deduce growth conditions has
failed, not because it is scientifically wrong but because
the problem is far too complex and its solution too
time-consuming. It would require decades to properly
study and interpret just one single hailstone, with its
numerous growth stages-assuming proper facilities
and staff were available. Further, any application of
results based on laboratory studies of hail formation has
to be done cautiously and taken with a grain of salt.
Results of any modelling should not be taken too
seriously either, because the results of even very
sophisticated laboratory experiments are still quite
crude and far from duplicating nature. Nevertheless,
they produce results which are much better than all the
reasonable processes thought out at a desk. Laboratory
hail research needs to be intensified because it can,
together with new field observations and computer
models, considerably expand our knowledge of hail
formation and can test some new ideas. And, some time
in the future, we might even arrive at a reliable
interpretation procedure to unravel hailstone histories.
REFERENCES
Burtsev. I. I., I. I. Gaivornosky, A. I. Kartsivatze, 1973: Hail process
investigations and hail suppression activities in the USSR. Proc.
WMOIIAMAP Sci. Conf. Weather Modification, Tashkent,
October, 189-196.
Carras, J. N. and W. C. Macklin, 1973: The shedding of accreted
water during hailstone growth, Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 99,
639-648.
Clark, T. L., and R. List, 1971: Dynamics of a falling particle zone. J.
Atmos. Sci., 28, 718-727.
Gillespie, J. R., and R. List, 1976: Evolution of raindrop size
distribution in steady state rainshafts. Proc. Int. Cloud Physics
Conf., Boulder, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 472-477.
Girard, C., and R. List, 1975: Thermodynamics of falling precipita-
tion zones, Pure App/. Phys., 113, 1035-1053.
Joe, P. I., R. List, P.R. Kry, M. R. de Quervain, P. Y. K. Lui, P. W.
Stagg, J. D. McTaggart-Cowan, E. P. Lozowski, M. C. Steiner,
J. Von Niederhausern, R. E. Stewart, E. Freire, and G. Lesins,
1976: Loss of accreted water from growing hailstones. Proc. Int.
Cloud Physics Conf. Boulder, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 262-269.
Kachurin, L. G., N.D. Artemyeva, A. I. Kartsivadze, S. Stoyanov,
and M. Tekle, 1973: Simulation of the natural process of hail
formation and its transformation under the influence of artificial
crystallization. Proc. WMOIIAMAP Sci. Conf Weather Mod-
ification, Tashkent, October, 231-237.
Kidder, R. E., and A. E. Carte, 1964: Structure of artificial hailstones,
J. Rech. Atmos., 1, 169-181.
91
Knight, C. A., and N.C. Knight, 1970a: Lobe structure ofhailstones,
J. Atmos. Sci., 27, 667-671.
--and--, 1970b: The falling behavior of hailstones, J. Atmos.
Sci., 27, 672-681.
Kry, P. R., and R. List, 1974: Angular motions of freely falling
spheroidal hailstone models, Phys. Fluids, 17, 1093-1102.
Levi, L., and A.M. Aufdermaur, 1970: Crystallographic orientation
and crystal size in cylindrical accretions of ice. J. Atmos. Sci.,
22, 443-452.
List, R., 1959a: Der Hagelversuchskanal. Z. Angew. Math. Phys.,
10,381-415.
- - , 1959b: Wachstum von Eis-Wassergemischen im Hagelver-
suchskanal. Helv. Phys. Acta, 32, 293-296.
- - , 1960: Zur Thermodynamik teilweise waessriger Hagelkoerner.
Z. Angew. Math. Phys., 11, 273-306.
- - , and T. A. Agnew, 1973: Air bubbles in artificial hailstones, J.
Atmos. Sci., 30, 1158-1165.
--,and T. L. Clark, 1973: The effect of particle size distributions on
the dynamics of falling precipitation zones, Atmosphere, 11,
179-188.
- - , P. I. Joe, G. Lesins, P. R. Kry, M. R. de Quervain, J. D.
McTaggart-Cowan, P. W. Stagg, E. P. Lozowski, E. Freire, R.
E. Stewart, C. G. List, M. C. Steiner, andJ. Von Niederhausern,
1976: On the variation of the collection efficiencies of icing
cylinders. Preprints Int. Cloud Physics Conf., Boulder, Amer.
Meteor. Soc., 233-239.
- - , 1977a: Ice accretions on structures. J. Glacio/., 18, 375-388.
- - , 1977b: The formation of rain. Proc. Roy. Soc. Canada
(in press).
- - , 1978: Properties and growth of hailstones. Thunderstorms, E.
Kessler, Ed. (in press).
Macklin, W. C., 1961: Accretion in mixed clouds. Quart. J. Roy.
Meteor. Soc., 87, 413-424.
- - , 1962: The density and structure of ice formed by accretion.
Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 88, 30-50.
- - , J. N. Carras, and P. J. Rye, 1976: The interpretation of the
crystalline and air bubble structures of hailstones. Quart. J. Roy.
Meteor. Soc., 102, 25-44.
- - , W. C., 1978: The characteristics of natural hailstones and their
interpretation. Meteor. Mongr. No. 38, 65-88.
Melcher, D., 1951: Experimentelle Untersuchung von Ver-
eisungserscheinungen, Z. Angew Math. Phys., 2, 421-443.
Mossop. S. C., and R. E. Kidder, 1962: Artificial hailstones. Bull.
Observ. Puy de Dome, 2, 65-80.
de Quervain, M., 1954: Zur Frage der atmospharischen Vereisung.
Bull. Schweiz. Elektro. Ver., 8, No. 14, 2-7.
Stagg, P. W., 1975: Heat transfer at the surface of rotating spherical
hailstone models. M.Sc. thesis, Dept. of Physics, University of
Toronto, 307 pp.
Stewart, R. E., R. List, and U. W. Rentsch, 1976: Aerodynamics of
freely falling bodies. Proc. Int. Cloud Physics Conf., Boulder,
Amer. Meteor. Soc., 258-262.
Sulakvelidze, G. K., N. Sh. Bibliashvili, and V. F. Lapcheva, 1967:
Formation of Precipitation and Modification of Hail Processes.
[Israel Program for Scientific Translations, Jerusalem, 208 pp.]
Wisner, C., H. D. Orville and C. Myers, 1972: A numerical model of a
hail-bearing cloud. J. Atmos. Sci., 29, 1160-1181.
 Freezing Nucleus Content of Hail and Rain in NE Colorado
GABOR VALl

Department of Atmospheric Science, University of Wyoming, Laramie

ABSTRACT

The freezing nucleus contents of rain and hail samples from NE Colorado thunderstorms have been determined
using the drop freezing technique.
Intra-storm, inter-storm, daily and seasonal variabilities of freezing nucleus concentrations were found to be
large, yet over scales of <20 km and shorter than 30 min the freezing nucleus content remains nearly constant.
There is a weak correlation between freezing nucleus content and rainfall rate. Coincidentally collected hail and
rain samples have nearly identical freezing-nucleus contents. The majority of freezing nuclei are >0.1 JLm in
diameter. The particulate contents of rain and of hail, in the size range 0.5 to 10 JLm diameter, are nearly the same
and indicate efficient scavenging from the air.
The weight of evidence points toward the conclusion that the freezing nuclei detected in the precipitation
samples were of local surface origin, and that they rapidly became embedded in cloud droplets, probably by
condensation. The observed nucleus spectra in the rain indicate that some ice formed in the storms at temperatures
as warm as -5°C. It is estimated that the concentrations of nuclei active at -l0°C was 10-100 per m3 of air. These
conclusions need the support of further analyses and of more comprehensive observations.

I. Introduction atures. Disadvantages are: 1) interpretation is compli-

The purpose of this paper is to report on the results of
freezing nucleus measurements in rain and in hail from
summertime thunderstorms in NE Colorado during
1972 and 1973.
The overall purpose of the study was to learn more
about the ice nucleus populations and the formation of
the ice phase in thunderstorms. Measurements of
freezing nucleus content (hereafter simply referred to
as nucleus content) in precipitation offer some advan-
tages and some drawbacks for examining these
questions. Clearly, the most direct way of addressing
the problem is to measure ice nuclei in the air feeding
the storm and from those measurements to predict the
rate of ice formation in clouds, with due account for the
state and microphysical evolution of the system.
However, present techniques for the measurement of
ice nucleus concentrations in air are still inadequate. It
is now recognized that the rate of ice formation in
clouds is the sum of contributions by several different
modes of ice nucleation. Present instruments fail to
provide quantitative measurements for the different
modes, especially at relatively warm(> -15°C) tempera-
tures. There are also some difficulties in formulating a
theoretical scheme for the prediction of the ice
formation rate.
Analyzing for freezing nucleus content of precipita-
tion has two advantages: 1) it deals with the end product
of the natural system and therefore automatically takes
some account of natural selection and integration
processes, and 2) the technique of freezing nucleus
measurements is well developed and is capable of
detecting nuclei active even at relatively warm temper-
93
cated by the fact that nuclei may have entered the
samples in several ways, 2) the freezing nuclei thus
detected may not be the only, or even the predominant
type of nuclei which contribute to glaciation in the
cloud, and 3) conservation of nuclei, i.e. the absence of
substantial aging and of subdividing of nuclei must be
assumed. The first of these disadvantages is potentially
the most serious one. It can only be evaluated by
examination of different aspects of the data and by
comparing results with estimates of the contributing
processes in a storm model. The second leads to
viewing the results as minimum estimates for the total
content of the storm. The third disadvantage is
amenable to direct experimental examination.
The origins of this type of research go back to the
work of Dorsey (1938) who examined the freezing
temperatures of natural water samples. Later, Rau
(1944) and Dorsey (1948) reported comparisons of
different water samples, including rain and snow. A
series of studies specifically related to rain, snow and
hail was conducted at McGill University over the
period 1960 to 1970 (Marshall, 1961; Barklie, 1962;
Stansbury and Vali, 1965; Vali, 1968). A detailed study
of hail and rain from Alberta, Canada, was presented by
Vali (1971a). Particular aspects of the precipitation
analyses and of the results obtained were discussed by
Vali (1970, 1971b, 1976). Rosinski et al. (1973)
questioned the validity of freezing nucleus meas-
urements on precipitation because of laboratory evi-
dence for the release of freezing nuclei by large
hydrosolized soil particles; some counter arguments
were given by Vali (1974). Other papers by Rosinski
(1966, 1967) and by Rosinski and Kerrigan (1969) deal
94
FIG. l. A photograph of one of the instrumented mobiles used for
sampling. The precipitation collectors are on the boom extending
toward top right.
with the presence of particulate matter in rain and hail
and with the role of large aerosol particles in
thunderstorm processes. Burrows and Robertson
(1969) used freezing nucleus measurements on snow to
infer ice multiplication processes in clouds.
The reactivation of freezing nuclei in individual
precipitation elements is potentially more informative
than measurements performed on bulk precipitation
samples, but measurements on single elements are
logistically and experimentally much more difficult.
Such experiments have been performed by Hoffer and
Braham (1962) and by Vali et al. (1970). Hoffer and
Braham's results for graupel particles from summer-
time convective clouds in Missouri, and Vali's results
on snow crystals from wintertime orographic clouds in
Wyoming both showed that only a relatively small
fraction of the individual hydrometeors refreeze at the
coldest temperatures observed in the clouds. In the
case of snow, about 10% of the snow crystals could be
said to have had the potential to originate on freezing
nuclei; for the summertime graupel particles the
fraction appears to have been even lower. The evidence
thus suggests either that the initiation of the hy-
drometeors for those cases could not be ascribed to
freezing nucleation or that the nuclei lost activity after
melting. Regrettably, no such reactivation meas-
urements are yet available for thunderstorms in NE
Colorado; comparison of such measurements with the
bulk freezing data would be very useful.
PART I: HAIL PHYSICS
The general aspects of the results of the freezing
nucleation measurements on rain and hail will be
described in this paper. In parallel with the large
diversity of thunderstorms there is also a large measure
of diversity in the results of the nucleation meas-
urements. This examination of the entire body of
available data was undertaken to assess the natural
variability, to seek dominant, general features and to
set the framework for more detailed case studies of the
future.
2. Methods
a. Observational site
The measurements were performed on precipitation
samples obtained from thunderstorms in NE Colorado,
as part of the National Hail Research Experiment.
Project headquarters and the meteorological radar sets
were located at Grover, Colorado. All activities
described in this paper have taken place within a
semi-circle of about 150 km radius to the east of Grover.
b. Sample collection
Samples of hail and of rain were collected at the
ground and by aircraft. All of the collections were made
with the maximum possible precaution for insuring
cleanliness. All collections were made by trained
personnel; no automated collectors were used.
Surface collections were made from two in-
strumented vehicles. Fig. 1 shows one of these vehicles
in the configuration normally used during sample
collection. The precipitation samples were collected in
plastic liners inserted into 28 em diameter buckets , the
buckets being supported on metal rings atop a mast.
The mast could be lowered for insertion and removal of
collectors and hoisted into the air for the duration of
collection. The liners were made from polyethylene and
were kept sealed until used. An intermittent seam
midway across the liner enabled hailstones to be retained
in the upper portion of the liner while rainwater
collected in the bottom portion of the bag. For every
collection three collectors were set up adjacent to each
other to provide duplicate samples. As shown by Fig. 1,
the collectors were approximately 4 m above ground
level and were positioned so as to be furthest away from
any solid surface from which water could splash into the
collectors. Collection times varied depending on rain
intensity; 5-30 min collection times were employed
with resultant sample sizes of 10-800 g. Following
collection the liners were carefully removed from the
holders, sealed and placed on dry ice to freeze the
samples. Times for complete freezing of the samples
varied from about 5 to 20 min.
In addition to the large precipitation collectors
GABOR VALl
located on the boom, samples of smaller volume but
better time resolution were obtained through a funnel of
10 em diameter which was installed on a small arm
extending to the side about 1 m from the eave of the
vehicle. Small polyethylene bags were attached to a
long rod and were held manually under the funnel for
the duration of collection. With this arrangement
samples could be obtained over intervals varying from
30 s upward; sample volumes varied from 2 to 15 g. A
series of these small samples was typically collected
while one large-volume sample was collected on the
boom.
The absence of background contamination from the
collecting devices was shown from measurements on
simulated collections of distilled water.
Fig. 1 also shows some of the auxiliary measuring
equipment. Wind instruments are located on the left
mast, a rain gauge is installed on the back side of
the truck, air is drawn through the snorkel on the front
for temperature and humidity measurements and a
momentum sensing raindrop distrometer is deployed in
the foreground. Data from these instruments were
continuously recorded during sampling periods.
Collections of precipitation from aircraft were
accomplished by using scoops of about 4 em diameter
held 30 em from the aircraft skin. The scoops were lined
with polyethylene bags inserted just prior to the
collection. Collection times were governed by the
passage of the aircraft through precipitation shafts and
varied from about 1 to6min. From 1 to 10gofwaterwas
usually collected in each of the three identical scoops.
This amount is less than what would be expected for
100% collection efficiency of the collectors and is due to
some water getting blown back out of the collectors.
The bags were placed onto dry ice immediately upon
retrieval of the samples.
Times and locations of the surface collections were
chosen to be from the most intense hail or rain cores
emanating from the storm. This was accomplished by
coordination between the radar observers, aircraft
crews and the operators of the mobile units. Whenever
possible a sequence of samples was obtained through-
out the entire period of precipitation at the sampling site
including both the heaviest rain which was usually at or
soon after the onset of precipitation, and the ensuing
lighter rain. The aircraft samples were normally taken
just below cloud base altitude, in locations consistent
with aircraft safety. This precluded gathering aircraft
samples from the most intense hail or rain shafts.
Because of other measurement roles for the aircraft,
there was a tendency for precipitation samples to be
collected during the decaying stages of thunderstorms
although some samples were collected during early and
mature stages.
95
c. Analysis
All samples were stored frozen at approximately
-15°C. The lapse of time between sample collection
and analysis varied from less than a day to about a year.
Repeated analyses on one particular sample over
different periods of time showed that no change in
freezing nucleus content occurred during storage in
frozen form. In preparation for analysis, samples of
<20 g total mass were melted in their entirety, or an
approximately 20 g piece of ice was broken off from a
larger sample. Tests on different portions of the total
sample revealed no fractionation of nucleus or particle
content, so subsamples taken in the described manner
are representative ofthe whole sample. The piece of ice
to be melted was transferred into a small polyethylene
bag and then held about 30 em in front of a heat lamp
until most of the ice melted but a small piece of ice still
remained to ensure that the sample stayed at a
temperature close to 0°C. About 5 cm3 of the melt water
was then taken into a polypropylene syringe for use in
the drop freezing experiment.
The drop freezing tests consisted of dispersing drops
of8.5 x 10-a cm3 volume (0.26 em equivalent spherical
diameter) each onto a thermally controlled cold stage.
Originally 75 and later 120 drops were used in each run
and two consecutive runs per sample were performed.
The dispensing syringe with the sample was kept in a
refrigerator between runs to minimize aging effects.
The surface of the cold stage was covered with an inert
sheet of aluminum foil or mylar which in turn was
coated with a silicone varnish. Distilled water drops
placed on such surfaces were found to freeze over the
temperature range -18 to - 26°C. The cleanliness of the
surface for each run was checked by placing a small
number of drops of distilled water adjacent to the
sample drops in each run; a run was rejected if these
drops froze at unexpectedly warm temperatures.
Placement of the sample drops took place while the cold
stage was maintained at + 15°C. Following preparation
the cold stage was covered and the temperature
lowered at the rate of 10°C min-! to ooc and at the rate
of 3°C min- 1 from ooc until all of the drops were ob-
served to freeze. The freezing temperature of each of
the sample drops was recorded.
The method of evaluation ofthe experiment was that
described by Vali (1971b). Using the assumption that
the freezing of a drop indicates the presence in the drop
of at least one nucleus with characteristic temperature
equal to the observed freezing temperature, the
experiments were evaluated in terms of differential and
cumulative nucleus activity spectra. Time-dependence
of nucleation is neglected in these calculations; this
leads to an uncertainty of about OSC in freezing
temperatures (Vali, 1969). A differential nucleus
96
spectrum expresses the concentration of nuclei per
temperature interval while the cumulative spectrum
expresses the concentration of nuclei active at tempera-
tures warmer than the temperature considered. These
spectra are evaluated at temperature intervals of0.25°C
and a five-interval weighted averaging is applied in a
sliding manner.
Limitations on the accuracy of the derived nucleus
spectra arise from random errors and from real
alterations of the freezing properties of nuclei during
preparation and during the progress ofthe experiment.
The random errors can be minimized by increasing the
sample size, i.e., by performing several consecutive
runs; on the other hand, making several runs increases
variabilities through aging over the increased length of
time required for the analysis. Changes in nucleating
properties with time in rain and hail samples have been
observed by Vali (1968) and have been found to become
appreciable over time intervals of several hours. As a
rule, decreases in nucleating ability have been ob-
served. In total, the confidence attached to the nucleus
spectra is such that a factor 2 or greater difference in
concentration usually can be considered significant.
Other measures of reliability are the comparison of
consecutive runs for a particular sample and the
comparison of duplicate samples. The condition set for
calculating a composite spectrum for two consecutive
runs was that the average freezing temperatures of the
two runs agree to within l°C. Typically, the agreement
was better than that, but exceptions were noted in
which cases the run indicating higher nucleus concen-
trations was accepted. The justification for this decision
is that while loss of activity due to extended periods at
warm temperatures has been observed, no phenome-
non producing increased activity with time has been
found. The agreement among duplicate samples was
very good in many cases but quite poor in some others.
In some instances there were discrepancies even in the
amounts of water collected in the three bags, evidently
caused by air turbulence around the collectors. When
one of the three simultaneous samples disagreed with
the other two, it was disregarded on the basis of
possible contamination (about 15% of samples). If all
three samples were substantially different (more than a
factor 2 difference over large portions of the spectra)
the entire collection was disregarded (about 3% of
samples).
In addition to the nucleus spectrum, other parame-
ters that are occasionally used for descriptions of
nucleus content, are the mean freezing temperature,
which is the arithmetic average ofthe observed freezing
temperatures of all drops in a run, and the T90
temperature which is the temperature at which 90% of
the sample drops were frozen. The T90 temperature
PART I: HAIL PHYSICS
means, for the drop sizes used, that the samples contain
265 nuclei cm-3 active at temperatures warmer than T90 •
3. Results
a. Overview
A summary of the T90 measurements for 1972 and
1973 appears in Figs. 2 and 3. Each point in these figures
represents the average of a set of duplicate samples for
the large-volume collections, or individual samples
taken through the funnel. Symbols distinguish between
these two types of samples. A diagonal slash across a
point indicates that the point refers to a sample of hail.
A vertical line across a point indicates that it refers to a
sample collected by aircraft. Days on which silver
iodide seeding was conducted are marked by S at the
top of the graph and open circles are used for samples
which are judged to have been potentially influenced by
the seeding material. The criteria used for judging a
sample potentially seeded was that the samples
originate from a location no more than 30 km from a
point of release of seeding material and that it be
collected from within a 60 min period following the
release.
The most noteworthy features of the data in Figs. 2
and 3 are the large degree of scatter in the points for any
given day and the existence of even greater differences
between different days. In both years there appears to
be a long term trend but the trends are different in the
two years. There appears to be no systematic distinc-
tion in these data between the different subgroups of
samples. This is reassuring because it confirms that the
manner of sample collection does not introduce biases.
The possible effects of seeding on freezing nucleus
content also appear to be small or nonexistent.
The variability is indeed surprisingly large, especially
when contrasted with many published sequences of
measurements of airborne nucleus concentrations
(e.g., Rau and Schmidt, 1961; Isaac and Douglas, 1971).
A likely explanation for this difference is that meas-
urements of airborne nuclei are usually conducted at
temperatures of -15 or- 20°C, whereas nuclei active at
warmer temperatures are detected in the freezing
nucleus measurements. On some days, samples may
differ by as much as l0°C in their nucleation tempera-
tures; in terms of nucleus concentrations this would
amount to variations by factors of 102 -103 • That these
variations are not entirely due to ''noise'' can be argued
on the basis that systematic differences between
different days are apparent in the data and that there is
reasonable agreement between simultaneous collec-
tions. One is therefore led to believe that in the
thunderstorm environment there are substantial fluctu-
ations in freezing nucleus concentrations and that there
GABOR VALl 97

1972
-5 s s s s s s s s
-+
• •
D
!...
...... ... \
..... +
---- ~j ....
+
... ,+
0
~
LLi
-10
... +++! ......
• •• ·' -;+
.
-!.-.
0::
::J
... .:.+t + ;:
+ ~
.....
t:i
• + ~· • 41'" +

- .* '. ---.--
:a: ... ~

...
0::
.......
IJJ
• •
--<t..t--
Q. 0
• .........
~
1-
j;
.......
......
-- ++
9-
.... ••
.•
..... .... ::.••}Ill
-15
C>
z
+
ft., +,... *
~ ...... 0 ~ • +..JI..
N
IJJ
• • J 0
•
.............
.... -, + ..... .....
... ... -v-• • f.:-
IJJ
0:: : ""~!""'"
f'"
-~--
1<.
+
..... ::::
0

:a:; . . . ......
* 0

-20
... ....
~
..;.---
::::...:;
•
9 13 15 16 17 22 .23 26 6 7 10 II 12 19 21 22 24 25 26 27
--- JUNE - - - . JULY

FIG. 2. Summary for the 1972 samples. Days of cloud seeding are marked with an
Sand open circles denote potentially seeded samples. Vertical slashes across points
distinguish aircraft collections. Points without lines are for large-volume bag
samples, horizontal lines mark funnel collections. Diagonal lines mark hail samples.

are also real differences between days. Whether these difficult to tell, but the former appears to be the more
latter differences are due to differences in the availabil- likely explanation.
ity of airborne nuclei or to variations in the extent to It is also interesting to compare the NE Colorado
which such nuclei are incorporated into precipitation is samples with samples from other regions. Data have

,.......
1973

..• +
-5
5 s s

-
-
• +

-
0 •
i ... +
;::;: -10
0

.;
w • +
. + • • ••
: *
0::
::J
++ + +
IJJ
...
+ ... +
• ++
•
!i -15 +;
IJJ
I- ... +; +
•
+
.:
C)
z +
•
'
N
1.1.1
1.1.1
0::
•
I.L -20 + + ++
+t
21 II 14 20 21 27 28 29 30 7 9 17 18 21 23 24 27 28 29 31
MAY JUNE JULY------
FIG. 3. Summary for the 1973 samples. Same notation used as in Fig. 2.
98 PART 1: HAIL PHYSICS

-16 -14 -12 -10 -8 -6 decreasing (colder) temperature. Exponential functions

have been most often used to express such nucleus
spectra even though such functions cannot be used
close to 0°C.
102 The most pronounced feature of the nucleus spectra
• is an abrupt rise in nucleus concentration usually

....
• ••
I~
• ==>
"''Eu • •
0
z
0 u
u to 1
_J
<[
1--
z >
w 1--
a::
w
LL.
LL.
0
I For the example shown in Fig. 4, the fit of this equation
~ ·~
-20 -t8 -t6 -t4 -t2 -to -8 -6
TEMPERATURE (•C)
FIG. 4. Typical nucleus spectrum for a sample of rain.
been presented by Schnell and Vali ( 1976) which exhibit
a rather clear difference in the ranges of nucleus
concentrations in rain from Florida, the Missouri-
Illinois region, Colorado and Alberta, Canada. In the
order listed, typical nucleus concentrations at -l2°C
for these regions are 10°, lOt, 102 and 5 x 102 cm-3 ,
respectively. This systematic regional difference un-
derscores the likelihood that the differences observed
in the precipitation relate to differences in the
availability of airborne freezing nuclei. Schnell and Vali
show that a correlation exists between the freezing
nucleus contents of rain samples and the presence of
organic freezing nuclei in soils, which in tum appear to
be governed by the climates of the regions concerned.
This evidence provides a suggestion that the sources of
the most active nuclei are organic soil constituents,
though the suggestion is far from proven as yet.
b. Nucleus spectra
One of the advantages of the drop freezing method of
ice nucleus measurements is that a temperature
spectrum of nucleus concentration is obtained, not just
a value at a single temperature. In the following, the
general features of the nucleus spectra observed in rain
and hail samples are presented.
The first point worth mentioning is that, in common
with other types of ice nucleus measurements, a rapid
increase in concentration is typically found with
.between -5 and 10°C. A representative example is
shown in Fig. 4, where both differential and cumulative
,;;- spectra are shown for a particular sample. The initial
'E
u rapid rise in concentration is followed by a decreased
rate of rise for further decreasing temperatures. This
z
0
u general pattern can be conveniently represented by a
to' w power-law relationship of the form:
<[
_J
::::> (1)
::;
::::>
u
where N is concentration of nuclei (cm-3 } active above
temperature T eC) and T1 , and Band bare constants.
is shown in the figure forB = 12 cm-3 and b = 6.23,
using T1 = -10°C. Median values of B and b for
Colorado rain and hail are given in Table 1 (for
Tl = -10°C}.
Superimposed on the general rising tendency, broad
peaks in the differential spectra are found on occasion,
most often in heavy rainfalls and in hail. An example is
shown in Fig. 4, where the combination of the steep
slope with the peak at -l2°C produces a plateau. The
temperatures at which such peaks appear are variable,
but are always toward the warm end of the spectrum, at
temperatures warmer than about -l5°C. Evidently, the
specific nucleus sources which the peaks reflect can be
discerned only where the nucleus concentration is low;
at colder temperatures a larger number of sources blend
into a monotonically rising spectrum. The narrower and
smaller peaks which often appear in a particular run
(some are evident in Fig. 4) are not statistically
significant and are not reproducible among duplicate
samples.
c. Rain-rate dependence
It is quite evident that precipitation processes in
thunderstorms are governed by complex dynamical and
microphysical processes and therefore no simple
influence of the atmospheric ice nucleus content on
precipitation intensity can be expected. On the other
hand, the existence of at least some gross relationship
between rainfall rate (or rain amount) and ice nucleus
TABLE 1. Median values of B and b for rain and hail in NE Colorado.
b
Median 10 4.5
Range (90 percentile) 1-100 3.5-6.5
GABOR VALl 99

concentration is required by most theories of rain -6

0
enhancement through cloud seeding. 0 J, 0 c9
oo o
Assuming that the freezing nucleus measurements 0 0 0 0§ 0 0

yield some information about atmospheric ice nuclei, 0

0 0 oOO 0 0

-10 0 0
and with the anticipation that some indications might 0 B 0
emerge concerning the role of these nuclei in the ~
0 oo'i9o
<fro
0
0 ~ 0
0

precipitation process, the correlation between nucleus .....

-0
0 0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 0
0
content and rainfall rate was examined for the 1972 and 0.:
::;; o
0
~o 0 o
0
0
~0
1973 sample sets. ...
w -14
000
0 0
0 ~ 0
oo 0

Fig. 5 shows the data for the two years combined. "' 0 0 08;5 0 0 0 0
~
""w
N
oo 0 0:0
0
00
0
0 00
Aircraft collections are not included because of the lack w 00 o o~ /:§ o 0

of corresponding rainfall rate measurements. The

a:
u. o
o 0 o 0 oo0
8 o
0 o 0 °8
-18 000 06' 0 0 oo
rainfall rates used here were computed from the total 0
0
0 0 0 0 0 8 00~0 0
o oOo o ro
volume of the sample and the duration of collection. o o0oo 0 8 00
0 6' 0 00 0
These rates are therefore mass-weighted averages over 0
0 ~0
the sampling duration, in the sense defined by Vali -22
(1970). As a rule, these average rain rates agreed well 0.1
R(mm h- 1)
10 100

with the raingage and disdrometer readings.

A very large degree of scatter is evident in this figure,
but a trend can be nonetheless discerned: a factor 10
increase in R is accompanied by a decrease of about
10°C (colder) nucleation temperatures. Subsets of the
points in Fig. 5 by year, by collection methods (bag
samples or funnel samples) or for seeded and non-
seeded days appear to be randomly scattered and are
not present in distinguishable zones.
The large scatter in the data is not surprising in view
of the large variability demonstrated in Figs. 2 and 3.
Sequences of samples from relatively short time
periods (30 min to 2 h) exhibited both direct and
inverse correlations between T 90 and R; a general
problem with such sequences is the difficulty of
separating the dependence on R from overall time
trends.
It is difficult to explain the trend indicated in Fig. 5.
Precipitation initiation by freezing nuclei would most
likely lead to the opposite trend, as argued by Vali and
Schnell (1971). The observed trend is consistent with
the assumption that the supply of nuclei is always
constant and that nuclei get removed completely in
each case, so that with higher liquid water contents and
higher rainfall rates, more dilute samples result. Or, the
observations may reflect a systematic relationship
between storm intensity and nucleus content, in the
sense of, say, daily correlations between storm
potential and aerosol characteristics. Other explana-
tions revolving around complex sequences of micro-
physical processes could be put forward, but all these
are overly speculative at present.
d. Hail-rain comparisons
It was reported by Vali (1968), and earlier by others
from the McGill University group, that more numerous
freezing nuclei and warmer freezing temperatures were
FIG. 5. Scatter diagram for observed nucleation temperatures
versus rainfall rate.
found in water from melted hailstones than in rainwa-
ter. This finding was thought to be significant in its
implication about the circumstances of hailstone
formation and in its countering of the basic tenet of hail
suppression by seeding with ice nuclei. The freezing
nucleus measurements for these studies were per-
formed on rainwater collected in clean receptors, and
on large hailstones collected from the ground, washed
and then melted for analysis; the rain and hail samples
were not collected coincidentally.
Vali (197la) reported analyses carried out on two
samples from Alberta, Canada; these samples con-
tained rain and hail collected simultaneously and in
clean receptors. In these samples, the rain and hail
contained very similar concentrations of freezing
nuclei, mostly agreeing within a factor of 2.
From the Colorado studies 10 further simultaneous
hail-rain collections are available, plus 2 more sets
obtained in Laramie, Wyoming. In all these sets,
hailstones of 5-10 mm maximum dimension were
present. A fairly large number of other samples
contained hailstones which were small enough to melt
before the samples were retrieved-such samples are
treated as rain samples. On one occasion dry
hailstones, without any rain were collected.
Fig. 6 shows a comparison between the freezing
nucleus concentrations of the rain and hail samples.
Cumulative nucleus concentrations are given for
different temperatures. The range marks indicate the
spread in concentration for the 3 (in some cases 2)
duplicate samples. The symbols distinguish between
different sets of samples for the same day. Identical
nucleus content in the hail and rain portions of the
samples would be indicated in this figure by the points
100 PART I: HAIL PHYSICS

(03

(02
;;
'E
~
z ro 1
0
~
a::
....J .....
~ ro 0
<t ~ 10 3 730721 ~
/

I 0 720707

/._.j• ~
0
.....
> -20
i= ro 2
ct
..J / t-+-1 -15
::::>
:IE
::::>
0 ro 1
~ ~ -10
/
~

RAIN
FIG. 6. Correlation between nucleus concentrations observed at indicated temperatures in samples of hail
and of rain collected coincidentally.

falling on the 45° diagonal. When entire error zones
about a point fall to either side of the diagonal, the
difference in nucleus content between the hail and the
rain can be considered significant.
The major pattern in Fig. 6 is the relative closeness of
all points to the lines of equality. Significant deviations
do occur and can be found in both directions: on four of
the seven days the nucleus content was lower in the
hailstones, on the three other days the hailstones
contained more nuclei than rain. It is noteworthy that
on the three days on which more than one set of samples
was collected, the different sets all show deviations in
the same direction. The data show no discernible trend
with temperature.
While present results reinforce the indications noted
in the Alberta data, some of the deviations in the
Colorado data are considerably greater. The systemati-
cally higher nucleus content in hail than in rain reported
in the early publications must be ascribed, in light of the
newer results, to general differences between the
hail-producing clouds and those which yield rain only,
or to the possibility of contamination from the ground
influencing the hailstone analyses in spite of the
precautions taken.
In considering the significance of these results it
should be recognized that, in reality, the distinction
between the two types of hydrometeors, hail and rain,
is not sharp, since much of what reaches the surface as
rain can be assumed to have been small hail which
melted during fall and there is some unavoidable mixing
between hail and rainwater in the collectors (the rain
washes over the hailstones and some of the hailstones
melt).
It appears warranted to conclude that for the cases
examined, the cloud processes which determine the
freezing nucleus contents work nearly equally for
precipitation elements which reach the ground as
hailstones and for those which arrive as raindrops. The
detected differences in nucleus contents appear to be
real but cannot be given specific interpretation because
of uncertainties about the rain formation mechanisms in
the thunderstorms sampled. The differences are not
large, however: the freezing nucleus contents are
generally quite alike in portions of the cloud where the
hailstones grew and where the raindrops originated.
e. Hailstone analysis
Since it is almost certain that different portions of
hailstones are accreted at different altitudes and in
different cloud environments, the distribution of
freezing nuclei within hailstones provides another way
for examining spatial variations of nucleus content
within clouds.
Analyses of portions of hailstones have been
performed by Vali (1970) for samples collected in
Alberta, and by Deshler (1975) on hail collected in 1972
and 1973 in NE Colorado. The results were the same in
both studies; there is very little variation in the freezing
nucleus contents of different layers of hailstones. In
GABOR VALl
some large hailstones the outermost layers were found
to contain higher nucleus contents; the differences
typically amounted to a factor of 2 for hailstones
collected cleanly and to a maximum of 10 for hailstones
picked off the ground.
These results differ from those presented by Rosinski
et al. (1971). They found large variations in the nucleus
contents of some hailstones, but always in the direction
which could result from surface contamination (as was
shown to occur by Vali, 1970).
Since the preponderance of evidence indicates no
great variations in nucleus contents between different
portions of hailstones the general implication is that the
nucleus contents of cloud droplets are relatively
constant over portions of the clouds traversed by the
hailstones. The results imply that frozen cloud droplets
are accreted by hailstones during both "wet" and "dry"
growth conditions as discussed by Deshler (1975).
These analyses of hailstones do not address in a
direct fashion the question of initiation of hailstones.
The only comment which can be made on that point is
the very general one, that with nuclei as active as -5 to
- woe present throughout a storm there is a definite
possibility for ice elements to start developing at those
temperatures.
f Altitude dependence
In judging the relevance of freezing nucleus meas-
urements in precipitation samples collected at the
surface to the potential for ice formation within clouds,
a critical factor is the extent of collection of freezing
nuclei by the rain and hail during fall from the clouds.
To examine this point, comparisons will be presented
here between samples collected at cloud base and
samples collected at the ground. The cloud base
samples were taken typically about 1.5-2 km above
ground level.
The manner of collection of the cloud base samples
from aircraft has been described in Section 2. The main
disadvantage of this technique is that the larger dry
aerosols may be collected along with the hydrometeors.
The collection efficiency for submicron particles will be
very close to zero. Calculations show that a cutoff in
collection efficiency should exist at about 2.5 p.m
diameter, and 90% collection efficiency should be
reached for particles of 10 p.m diameter. Since
collection efficiencies are dependent on the square root
of the ratio of free air velocity to collector diameter,
roughly speaking there will not be great differences
between collection efficiencies for the aircraft collector
and for falling raindrops. The volumes of air swept by
the aircraft sampler and by rain falling through 2 km
altitude difference are 6 and 1.5 m3 per gram of water.
Thus, the aircraft samples would be expected to contain
101
lo'
1o:1 2~o:-'-...__._-'--_--fl.-5.L.......I--'--'--~Io;-'--'--'----'----!_s
TEMPERATURE (•C)
FIG. 7. Comparison of two pairs of cloud base (A/C) and ground
(SFC) collections from July 9, 1973. Individual lines within each
set are for separate collector bags. Times of collections are
indicated.
about 4 times greater concentrations of particles in any
given particle size range than the ground samples, if the
aerosol concentration is assumed to be uniform with
altitude.
Comparisons of cloud base and ground collections
reveal that, on the average, nucleus contents are the
same. Parallel variations from day to day and from
storm to storm have been documented. Deviations from
complete agreement are not uncommon, but these
deviations are minor in comparison to the observed
parallel trends. Discrepancies up to factors of 3 are
typical, and the deviations can be in either direction.
There is a tendency for the deviations on any given day
to be systematically in one direction. Fig. 7 shows
nucleus spectra for two intercomparisons from the
storm of 9 July 1973. This was a multi-cellular storm
which has been described in detail in a collection of
papers by Chalon et al. (1976) and others. The two sets
of aircraft and ground collections were made about 50
min apart, in each case the locations of the aircraft and
ground sampling points were separated by about 10 km.
As the figure indicates there was a change in nucleus
content from the earlier to the later samples, and this
change is well reflected in both the cloud base and
ground samples. Both in the early and in the later
sample pairs there is fair agreement between cloud base
and ground samples. To indicate the degree of
consistency in the data, spectra from all duplicate
samples are included in Fig. 7.
Another set of comparisons, similar to Fig. 7, has
been presented for another storm by Vali (1974). The
102 PART I: HAIL PHYSICS

i!
100
~..-
o--- 0
} #g3 (720628)
freezing nuclei oflarger sizes than the Alberta samples.
The tests were again conducted using membrane filters.
c
.... ·--~
t/;~1·~~"
>--
>-- (A centrifuge separation technique was also tried, but
:i because of complicating factors these tests remained
"'z
<I 10
unproductive.) Two examples of the results of filtration
a:
>--

.
w tests are shown in Fig. 8 in terms of the fractions of
..J
nuclei remaining in the sample after filtrations with
.,
(,)
:::>
z
...0 filters of the indicated pore size. Sample 93 is
z
representative of the majority of samples; in these the
Q
>--
sub-micron sizes dominate but few of the nuclei are less
(,)
than 0.1 JLm. Roughly speaking, Y:3 of the nuclei are less
...a:
<I

101
FILTER PORE SIZE (Jlrl!)
FIG. 8. Results of filtration experiments indicating the sizes of
nuclei for two different rain samples.
cloud base samples had somewhat higher nucleus
contents in those samples.
The examples presented demonstrate quite well the
consensus of the total of 20 sample pairs analyzed.
The sources of the systematic differences are not
clear but appear worth investigating. Due to logistic
difficulties, the timing and location of the sample pairs
are never ideal-this is, undoubtedly, one source of
differences. Another possible contributor to differ-
ences is that the aircraft samples are smaller in volume
and are frozen with less time delay than the surface
samples; aging of the samples can therefore have
slightly different impacts. The possibility of true
differences due to dissimilar scavenging rates cannot be
excluded either.
The main point is nevertheless fairly clear: the
evidence supports the contention that the nucleus
contents of precipitation samples collected at the
ground can be taken to reflect the nucleus contents of
hydrometeors in the clouds. Subcloud scavenging of
aerosols does not appear to be a dominant contributor
to observed nucleus contents.
g. Sizes of nuclei
No comprehensive examination of nucleus sizes has
been made for the 1972 and 1973 precipitation samples.
Only a few checks were performed to permit compari-
sons with the results reported by Vali (1966, 1968). In
those papers, filtration tests were described which used
membrane filters of various pore sizes. The conclusion
was reached that a substantial fraction (10-80%) of the
nuclei are smaller than 0.01 JLm in diameter regardless
of the activity temperatures considered, and that
practically all of the nuclei are sub-micron in size.
These results were for rain and hail from Alberta,
Canada.
The NE Colorado samples were found to contain
than 0.1 JLm in diameter, Y:3 fall in the size range 0.1-1
JLm and Y:3 are greater than 1 JLm. Sample 239 is a less
common example; here the nuclei are apparently of
very large sizes. For samples which had separated rain
and hail portions, the sizing tests yielded identical
results for the two fractions. No correlation was
detected between the concentrations of nuclei and their
sizes.
The implications of the results are:
1) Freezing nuclei in the NE Colorado samples are of
large enough size so that they could be active as cloud
condensation nuclei and thereby could be efficiently
incorporated into cloud droplets.
2) Discussions of the origins of freezing nuclei
should take account of the observed size distributions
of nuclei; there are indications of day-to-day differ-
ences in the sizes, and probably also in the origins of the
freezing nuclei.
h. Particulate content
Since freezing nuclei represent such a minute fraction
of the atmospheric aerosol, it seems important to
compare the freezing nucleus data with the total
particulate content (insoluble material) of the precipita-
tion samples and with atmospheric aerosol concentra-
tions. Unfortunately, the value of the comparisons is
weakened by the narrowness of the size range over
which data on particulate content could be acquired, by
the uncertainties in the sizes of freezing nuclei and by
the lack of concomitant aerosol measurements for 1972
and 1973.
Size distributions of insoluble particles in rain and in
hail were obtained using a Model ZB Coulter-Counter
with 19 and 70 JLm orifice tubes. The precipitation
samples were mixed 1:1 with a multiply filtered NaCl
solution to yield 4% by weight final salt concentration.
Background contribution of the salt solution was shown
to be negligible. Calibration of the instrument followed
the procedures of King and Vali (1976). The meas-
urements extended over the size range 0.6 to 10 JLm
volume-equivalent diameter. An example of a typical
result is shown in Fig. 9a illustrating the number of data
points typically taken for the determination of a size
distribution.
GABOR VALl 103

RAIN SAMPLE #77 RANGE FOR ALL

720617 SAMPLES

w
N
en
5 103
Q..

z
Q
1-
~ 10 2
1-
z
w
u
z
8 10 1

1 oo·~~~----~~~~-LLLLL--~
0.5 2 4 10 20 0.5 I 2 4 10 20
PARTICLE DIAMETER ()Jm)

FIG. 9a. Example of size distribution of insoluble particles in rain.

FIG. 9b. Range of observed particle concentrations for 18 samples of rain and hail.

Smooth distributions have been observed for all
samples. The limited resolution of the instrument is a
minor contributing factor, since the geometric standard
deviation for a monodispersed hydrosol is typically
only about 1.1.
The data can be described well by power-law
relations of the form
(2)
where d is particle diameter (/Lm), a and {3 are
constants, and n (d) is the concentration of particles per
size interval (cm- 3 /Lm- 1). Fig. 9b shows the range of
concentrations observed for all samples analyzed,
namely 18 samples from 8 days. Included are samples of
hail and ofrain, and aircraft as well as surface samples.
The ranges of the coefficients in (2) are a = 5 x 104 to
106 cm-3 and {3 = -3 to -4.5. The sample-to-sample
variation in a is relatively small, and can be contrasted
with the three orders of magnitude variability observed
in freezing nucleus content.
Our results are in fair agreement with those of
Rosinski (1967) for the same area. The present data
indicate about a factor 5 lower concentrations, on the
average, but the slopes of the distributions and the
degree of variability are comparable for the two sets of
data. Our data did not show systematically higher
particle contents for hailstones than for rain.
Comparison of the particulate contents of precipita-
tion with aerosol concentrations measured in 1976 and
with the data ofBlifford and Ringer (1969) has revealed
that there is somewhat more variability in aerosol
concentrations than in hydrosol concentrations, but
even these variabilities are small in comparison with
regional and seasonal differences across the globe.
Thus, the near-constancy of hydrosol content in the
rain and hail can be explained at least in part, by the
relative uniformity of the aerosol environment of the
storms.
Using average values from Fig. 9b and from the
aerosol measurements, a concentration ratio (particles
per cm3 of air/particles per cm3 of water) of about 10-6 is
found, which is equivalent to complete aerosol removal
by a cloud of 1 gm- 3 liquid water content. This value is
in the range of other observed values reported, for
example, by Engelmann (1968). Both simple physical
reasoning and the data of Engelmann indicate that
larger values of the concentration ratio should go with
higher liquid water contents and higher rainfall rates.
4. Discussion
Ice nucleation measurements have always been
difficult to interpret clearly. A number of tentative
deductions have been made in the preceding sections,
but none of them can be defended in a rigorous manner.
104
Only where several independent lines of evidence point
in the same direction can the inferences be given
credence. It is, thus, more in the form of indications
than of conclusions that the results ofthis research can
be stated:
1) Particles capable of acting as freezing nuclei are
ingested into NE Colorado thunderstorms with the
updraft. The particles then become embedded in cloud
droplets quite rapidly, either by condensation or some
other efficient collection mechanism. This leads to a
measure of uniformity in the freezing nucleus content of
cloud-water which prevails over time scales of 10-30
min (approximate cycle times for raindrop and
hailstone growth) and distances of up to 10 to 20 km.
2) Over longer time periods, hours and days, and
over distance scales of 20 km and greater, there are
large variations in freezing nucleus populations with
respect to abundance, activity and particle sizes. This
contrasts with the relative constancy of the general
aerosol populations. The indication seems to be (as also
deduced by Rosinski et al., 1971) that the freezing
nuclei are of local surface origin. Monitoring of the
variations in nucleus concentrations over these scales
seems important for the proper execution of cloud
seeding. The freezing nucleus content of precipitation
may be helpful in post hoc evaluations of seeding
potential.
3) Using the concentration ratios derived in Section
3h, the freezing nucleus content of the precipitation can
be converted to yield an estimated airborne concentra- Barklie, R. H. D., 1%2: Nucleation measurements on rain and melted
tion of 10 to 100 m-3 ice nuclei at -10°C and nucleus
activity spectrum shapes similar to those given in
Section 3b. Since no other types of ice nucleus counters Blifford, Jr., I. H., and L. D. Ringer, 1969: The size and number
can currently yield measurements of natural nucleus
concentrations at -l0°C, or warmer, and since very Burrows, D. A. and C. E. Robertson, 1969: Comments on "Ice
few measurements of any kind are available from
thunderstorm updrafts, comparison of the predicted Chalon, J.P., J. L. Fankhauser and P. J. Eccles, 1976: Structure of an
freezing nucleus concentrations with other data is not
very useful.
4) From the frequent presence in the precipitation of
freezing nuclei active at temperatures between -5 and
l0°C, it is evident that the formation of some ice Dorsey, N. E., 1938: Supercooling and freezingofwater.J. Res. Nat.
particles at those temperatures can be expected to be
taking place in the clouds. Hailstone embryos might - , 1948: The freezing of supercooled water. Trans. Amer. Phil.
originate from these ice particles, but there is no direct
evidence to suggest that they do.
Several of the points listed here should be checked
and be put on firmer foundations by case study analyses
of the data and by additional observations. Further
examinations of the 1972 and 1973 data are planned.
The newer field data from 1976, including extensive
aerosol and nucleus measurements, cloud microstruc-
ture observations and other complementary meas-
urements, will provide a good basis for checking the
PART I: HAIL PHYSICS
validity of the suggestions made here and will
undoubtedly enable more definitive statements to be
made concerning ice formation and ice nuclei in NE
Colorado thunderstorms.
Acknowledgements. The data presented in this paper
could not have been obtained without the dedicated
efforts of many individuals who participated in the 1972
and 1973 field work. Special thanks are due the crews of
the mobile units and of the aircraft which were operated
for the NHRE by the University of Wyoming. Thanks
are due for the great deal of painstaking laboratory
analysis and data reduction which was contributed by
Ms. Vickie Sutherland, Mrs. A. E. King and Ms. D.
Keck. Dr. C. A. Knight's critical review of this
manuscript was very helpful. The comments of an
anonymous reviewer led to a number of clarifications.
The leadership and guidance of the late Dr. W.
Swinbank, Director of the NHRE in 1972 and 1973, is
fondly remembered and gratefully acknowledged.
Funding for this research was provided through a
sub-contract to the University of Wyoming from the
National Hail Research Experiment which is managed
by the National Center for Atmospheric Research and
sponsored by the Weather Modification Program,
Research Application Directorate, National Science
Foundation.
REFERENCES
hail. McGill University, Stormy Weather Group, Sci. Rep.
NW-34, 33-46.
distribution of aerosols in the continental troposphere. J. Atmos.
Sci., 26, 716-726.
multiplication in clouds." J. Atmos. Sci., 26, 1340-1341.
evolving hailstorm, Part I. General characteristics and cellular
structure. Mon. Wea. Rev., 104, 564-575 (other papers on the
same storm are in the same issue of Mon. Wea. Rev.).
Deshler, T. L., 1975: Freezing nuclei in accreted ice. Rep. AS 115,
Dept. Atmos. Sci., University of Wyoming, 21 pp.
Bur. Stnd., 20, 799-808.
Soc., 38, 247-328.
Englemann, R. J., 1968: The calculation of precipitation scavenging.
Meteorology and Atomic Energy, D. J. Slade, Ed., U.S. Atomic
Energy Commission, 208-221.
Hoffer, T. E. and R. R. Braham, Jr., 1962: A laboratory study of
atmospheric ice particles. J. Atmos. Sci., 19, 232-235.
Isaac, G. A. and R. H. Douglas, 1971: Frequency distributions of ice
nucleus concentrations. J. Rech. Atmos., S, 1-4.
King, A. E. and G. Vali, 1975: A calibrated process for single-channel
Coulter particle counters. J. Colloid Interface Sci., 53, 337-339.
Marshall, J. S., 1961: Heterogeneous nucleation is a stochastic
process. Nubila, 4, 39-42.
GABOR VALl
Rau, W., 1944: Gefriervorgange des Wassers bei Tiefen Tempera-
tures. Ber. Dtsch. Akad. Luftfahrtforsch., 8, 65-84.
--,and M. Schmidt, 1%1: Registrierungen des atmospharischen
Gefrierkemgehalts in Weissenau von July 1957 bis August 1959.
Beitr. Phys. Atmos., 34, 274-320.
Rosinski, J., 1966: Solid water insoluble particles in hailstones and
their geophysical significance. J. Appl. Meteor., 5, 481-491.
- - , 1967: Insoluble particles in hail and rain. J. Appl. Meteor., 6,
1066-1074.
--,and T. C. Kerrigan, 1%9: The role of aerosol particles in the
formation of raindrops and hailstones in severe thunderstorms.
J. Atmos. Sci., 26, 659-715.
--,G. Langer, C. T. Nagamoto, T. C. Kerrigan and F. Prodi, 1971:
Natural ice-forming nuclei in severe convective storms. J.
Atmos. Sci., 28, 391-401.
--,C. T. Nagamoto, T. C. Kerrigan and G. Langer, 1973: Freezing
nuclei derived from soil particles. J. Atmos. Sci., 30, 644-652.
Schnell, R. C. and G. Vali, 1976: Biogenic ice nuclei: Part I.
Terrestrial and marine sources. J. Atmos. Sci., 33, 1554-1564.
Stansbury, E. J. and G. Vali, 1965: Experiments on the nucleation of
ice 1961-63. McGill University, Stormy Weather Group, Sci.
Rep. MW-46, II pp.
Vali, G., 1966: Sizes of atmospheric ice nuclei. Nature, 212, 384-385.
105
- - , 1968: Ice nucleation relevant to formation of hail. McGill
University, Stormy Weather Group, Sci. Rep. NW-58, 51 pp.
- - , 1969: The characteristics offreezing nuclei. Proc. 7th Int. Conf.
Condensation and Ice Nuclei, Academic Publishing House,
Prague, 387-393.
- - , 1970: Entry of freezing nuclei into precipitation. Precipitation
Scavenging (1970), A.E.C. Symp. Ser. No. 22, 49-68.
- - , 1971a: Freezing nucleus content of hail and rain in Alberta. J.
Appl. Meteor., 10, 73-78.
- - , 1971b: Quantitative evaluation of experimental results on the
heterogeneous freezing nucleation of supercooled liquids. J.
Atmos. Sci., 28, 402-409.
- - , 1974: Comments on "Freezing nuclei derived from soil
particles." J. Atmos. Sci., 31, 1457-1459.
- - , 1976: Aerosol scavenging in High Plains thundershowers.
Precipitation Scavenging (1974), U. S. Atomic Energy Com-
mission (in press).
--,and R. C. Schnell, 1971: A relation between raindrop sizes and
freezing nuclei in the rain. J. Rech. Atmos., 5, 87-92.
- - , D. L. Veal, A. H. Auer, Jr., and D. J. Knowlton, 1970:
Reactivation of nuclei in crystals from cap clouds. Preprints
Second Nat. Conf. Weather Modification, Santa Barbara, Amer.
Meteor. Soc., 366-369.
 The Climatology of Hail in North America
STANLEY A. CHANGNON, JR.

Illinois State Water Survey, Urbana

ABSTRACT

The first climatic investigations of hail in North America were by Lemons and Flora during the 1940's. These
were followed by more intensive, state-scale climatic investigations in the 1960's to meet insurance concerns.
Subsequent concerns with hail by the aviation industry and the weather modification community led to the first
collection of mesoscale hail data from dense networks and radar studies during the 1960's and 1970's.
This paper is a review of available hail information presented in a series of time and space scales. Although the
North American hail data and information are less than adequate, there is much more hail information than exists
elsewhere in the world. Very extensive findings on hail are available for Alberta, Illinois, and Colorado.
Phenomenologically oriented studies have focused on hailstones, point hailfalls, hailstreaks, hailstorms,
hailswaths, and hail days over various sized areas. Results for each of these classifications are presented according
to studies that focused on national, on regional, and on small-scale areas.
The principal hail area of the continent is in and to the lee of the Rocky Mountains where hail is both frequent and
intense and hence, the Great Plains suffers the great damages. Another high frequency area related to spring storms
extends from Texas to Michigan, but causes less crop damage since it largely precedes the crop season. Certain
inexpensive data collection efforts and analyses which would greatly improve our knowledge of hail are
recommended.

1. Introduction be a quite variable event, but information about its

actual variability, on a variety of scales, and where to
Hail, whether it is viewed as the quickly melting
locate available findings are lacking in single presenta-
hailstones on a sidewalk, the hailstorms during one
tion. This paper reviews all available information by
June week in Colorado, or the hail season in Alberta,
presenting 1) a few examples of the variability of
exhibits a variability exceeding that of most other
surface hail for a range of time and space scales, and 2)
weather conditions. The time and space variability of
hail is its prime characteristic, and the variability results an extensive list of references for securing more
information.
because hailfalls are such small scale areal phenomenon
Before proceeding into the discussion of the findings
and relatively infrequent events at any one point. This
and knowledge available about hail, two explanatory
effort to address the climatology of hail at the surface
sections are offered. Presented first is a brief history of
really addresses the time and space scales of hail.
Hail is precipitation in the form of balls or irregular hail research in North America. This sets the stage for a
critical second section that describes the three major
lumps of ice, always produced by convective clouds.
By convention, hail has a diameter of 5 mm (0.2 inch) or sources of hail data including their limitations.
Information on the national space scales for time
more. There are two areas of confusion regarding hail:
periods ranging from decades down to a month are then
I) defining it, and 2) assessing damage due to hail. First
presented. This section is entitled "National Scale
is the question typical of the transition seasons as to
Studies." The next major section offered is "Regional
whether ice pellets or snow pellets (often referred to as
Scale Studies" where hail results on the state,
"small hail") are hailstones. Sleet can also be confused
province, and geophysical areas of this general size are
with small hail, but stone size and convective cloud
examined, generally on time scales of months to days.
origin are the two factors that separate hail from other
The mesoscale, individual hailstorm, and microscales
forms of frozen hydrometeors. A second area of
of hail are examined in ''Small Area Studies'' using
confusion associated with hail concerns delineating
seasonal, day, hour and minute time scales.
crop loss due to hail. This loss often integrates damage
by wind, either that with the hail or that before and after 2. History of hail research
the hail, and the wind-induced damage cannot be well
distinguished from hail loss (Morgan and Towery, The history of hail research in the United States
1975). reveals five interrelated phases of interest. The
Previous hail studies have yielded extensive, largely meteorological literature of the 1910-1938 period
unsummarized, information relevant to the time and contains a few descriptions of spectacular hailstorms in
space variations of hail. Hail is generally recognized to different locales, but the first active research period,
107
108
which began in the late 1930's and early 1940's,
concerned descriptions of hail frequencies and the
impact of hail on American agriculture. This was
quickly followed by airline and U.S. Air Force studies
in the 1940's and 1950's motivated by concern with hail
damage to aircraft. Phase 3 was produced by the major
expansion of scientific study of severe storms in the
1950's, both in the United States and Canada. This
resulted because 1) there was a general expansion in
weather research; 2) scientists moved to improve our
national storm forecasting capabilities; and 3) new
devices like radar and computers enabled expanded
research. Phase 4 began in the 1960's with the hail
insurance community which needed to have more
information to deal effectively with their expanding
areal coverage and ever questionable assessment
procedures. Phase 5 began in the mid-1960's as both
Canada and the United States began to seriously
consider hail suppression. Such consideration was a
natural outgrowth of the advances in our hail knowledge
resulting from all prior phases. Practically all our cur-
rent knowledge of hail has been accumulated since 1940.
The first hail climatologists of significance in the
United States were Snowden Flora and Hoyt Lemons.
Their research and subsequent publications were signal
initial contributions about hail in the United States, and
their works remained the basis for much of our
knowledge of hail and its climatology for 15 to 25 years
after their completion. Their interest in hail appeared
after wetter weather periods with their attendant
increase in hail ended the droughts of the 1930's when
hail had been a lesser problem. Flora's early work on
hail losses (Flora, 1940; 1941) culminated in the famous
book, Hailstorms of the United States (Flora, 1956).
Lemons wrote an outstanding doctoral thesis about
hail (Lemons, 1941), and his contributions were aimed
at the meteorological factors (Lemons, 1943), climatic
factors (Lemons, 1942a), and at the economic aspects
(Lemons, 1942b; 1942c). Both of these pioneers were
from high hail loss states, Kansas (Flora) and Nebraska
(Lemons).
Their work was complemented by aU. S. Weather
Bureau study of hail and thunderstorms initiated in the
early forties. Shands (1944) compared thunderstorm
and hail frequencies as did Buell (1945), and valuable
new hail data and results appeared in a major
publication Thunderstorm Rainfall (U. S. Department
of Commerce, 1947). It presented national-scale hail
patterns that were superior to those first presented in
Climate and Man (U. S. Department of Agriculture,
1941).
These works furnished much of what would be
classed as general climatological information on hail
until the 1960's. Growing interest in the climatology of
PART I: HAIL PHYSICS
hail loss to crops and property, plus 20 more years of
data, provided most of the rationale for new climatolog-
ical treatments.
National-scale aspects of hail and property damage
were the focus of one premier study (Collins and Howe,
1964). Changnon and Stout (l967a) examined hail
intensity as reflected in crop losses, and they developed
national intensity patterns and seasonal distributions.
Stout and Changnon (1968) then presented a major
analysis of the hail-day data for the Central United
States, and Changnon (l972a) followed with detailed
regional analyses of hail, as reflected in crop-loss data.
An in-depth assessment of crop-hail losses in the
United States was developed by Boone (1974), in
response to interests in hail suppression.
Extensive hail research programs in Alberta and
Illinois have been pursued continuously since the late
1950's, and they produced much of the information
about hail available in Canada and the United States.
Both groups have produced more than 100 publications
on hail. These extensive research efforts were oriented
to gaining information regarding agricultural and
property loss, surface hail, aircraft detection and
avoidance of hail aloft, storm dynamics, forecasting of
hail, and hail suppression. The primary current
research activity in both areas relates to hail modifica-
tion with an on-going experimental-operational pro-
gram in Alberta. The Illinois modification interests
include studies of urban effects on hail (Semonin and
Changnon, 1974), and developing the design of an
experiment applicable to Illinois and the Middle West
(Changnon et al., 1975). A third geographical area of
extensive hail studies is Colorado where research
efforts oriented to hail suppression began in the early
1960's.
To accompany these modification-related tasks, the
research in Alberta, Colorado, and Illinois has included
climatological hail studies, field surveys of hailstorms,
radar-hail investigations, operations of a variety of hail
networks, development of instruments for direct and
remote sensing of surface hail, and a variety of other
hail studies. Emphasis in all studies has been placed on
obtaining good measurements and descriptions of hail
at the surface. Thus, the studies have provided a variety
of climatological hail information on the state scale and
mesoscale.
3. Data
Crucial to a proper understanding of any climatic
investigation is knowledge of the basic data sources.
Climatic studies of surface hail have relied on data from
three sources: 1) the national weather services, 2) the
hail insurance industry, and 3) special research and
STANLEY A. CHANGNON, JR. 109

operational mesonetworks. The form of these data is more extensive hail studies using cooperative substa-
briefly described to provide information on their utility tion data and insurance data showed the average
and limitations. 10-year value in Illinois to be 840 hail days, including
530 damaging days (Changnon, 1962a).
a. Weather Service data
b. Hail insurance data
The hail data of the national weather services comes
The second major source of hail data comes from
from three sources. Stations manned by trained
crop-hail insurance records. Unfortunately, property
observers (first-order stations) have recorded days with
insurance records combine, without identification, hail
hail since station inception starting in the late 1890's,
losses with all other storm losses; hence, property loss
and they have recorded time of hail at the station since
due to hail cannot be determined from insurance
1960. No other information such as the duration of
records. However, the crop-hail insurance data have
hailfalls, number of storms, hail intensity, or size of
been accumulated in a few states since the 1920's, and
stones is provided. The hail-day data were the source
in all states where hail is an agricultural problem since
used by Lemons (1941), Shands (1944), Flora (1956),
the late 1940's. Hence, 30- to 50-year records now exist,
and U. S. Department of Commerce (1947) to develop
and the insurance industry has published a variety of
the first important climatological descriptions of hail.
atmospheric-oriented reports that illuminate the kinds
The weather services have also maintained
of data and the values and problems involved in their
thousands of cooperative substations manned by
use in scientific research (Roth, 1955; Brown, 1963,
volunteers since the 1890's. In the United States, these
1967; Fosse, 1975).
observers have reported days when hail occurred (hail
In the well-insured intensive agricultural areas,
days) at their station (point occurrences). Because
which include much of the Great Plains, the Midwest,
these records are made by volunteers, for many years
and the specialty crop areas of the Northwest and East
they were never used climatically because of doubts
Coast, the crop-hail loss data provide detailed areal
about data quality. However, Changnon (1967a) de-
information not available in the Weather Service data.
veloped a technique by which these records could be
One can get "hail-loss day" frequencies, areal extent of
evaluated and used to some extent in climatic studies.
loss (per day), loss by crop types (per day), plus a
This major development allowed much greater areal
variety of township, county, and state annual values of
detail since, in any given 12,000 km 2 area, there are
total liability ($), losses ($ and acres), and loss cost
typically 10 substations with quality hail data and only
(loss -;- liability times 100). However, there are obvious
one first-order station. This advance led to new climatic
limitations in using these data for climatic-type
investigations of hail days on a national scale (Stout and
investigations. One is the varying amount of liability
Changnon, 1968) and in specific smaller regions
over an area and with time. There is also the problem
(Changnon and Schickedanz, 1969); Schickedanz and
Changnon, 1970a) where the hail climate could be well that hail beyond the crop season is not measured. If one
seeks to study and compare inter-seasonal values there
defined for the first time.
is a problem with the changing susceptibility of a given
A third source of hail data in the U. S. Weather
Service is the published storm loss data. State section crop to loss due to its different stages. Identical
directors, in the 1914-1949 period, frequently prepared hailstorms in May and July will cause greatly different
losses to corn, soybeans, and wheat crops (Changnon
detailed texts published in monthly Climatic Data
and Stout, 1967a).
issues that described damaging hailstorms in their
states. Flora (1956) drew heavily upon such reports to
c. Special mesonetwork data
prepare his book. In the 1950-1958 period, the U.S.
Weather Bureau initiated, in the National Summary, a The growing concern with hail as a threat to aircraft
monthly compilation of severe storm data by states and led to several studies to better understand and detect
date. Since 1959 this type of material has been hail. United Airlines (Beckwith, 1960) developed in
presented in the Storm Data series. Again, each state 1949 a dense network of observers in a 160 km 2 area
director or climatologist has been responsible for around Denver. The U. S. Air Force, in an effort to
submitting material, so the quality and quantity of these better detect and avoid hail aloft in storms (Donaldson,
data for each state depend heavily on the interest, skill, 1958), installed dense hail observing networks during
and commitment of the individual. Financial losses are the late 1950's in New England (Chemla, 1960) using
usually very crudely estimated and many storms go observers, in Illinois (Wilk, 1961) with observers and
unreported. For example, Flora reported Illinois had 45 hailpads, and in Texas.
hail days (15 damaging) in a 10-year period, whereas The general agricultural problem of hail, the concerns
110
of the insurance industry for data, and the need to define
the potential of hail suppression, all led to the
installation of dense networks in the late 1950's to study
hail in Alberta (observers), Colorado (observers and
hailpads), and in Illinois (observers and hailpads).
These networks provided new detailed data about the
time and space variations of hail. Individual point
hailfalls could be measured as to time of occurrence,
duration, number and size of stones; and individual
storm tracks and hailstreaks (an area of hail with
time-space continuity from a single release of hail)
could be accurately defined for the first time. More hail
networks in portions of Arizona, Nebraska, North
Dakota, and Illinois-Missouri were installed in the late
1960's and early 1970's to gather data relevant to the
design and evaluation of hail modification projects
(planned and inadvertent).
The advantages and disadvantages of these meso-
network hail data are described in detail elsewhere
(Changnon, 1969a). Key data-related questions con-
cern density requirements of samplers, accuracy of
instruments, observer-reported errors in all meas-
urements, and servicing of instruments (frequency and
AVERAGE ANNUAL NUMBER
PART I: HAIL PHYSICS
calibration). Nevertheless, network data have provided
exceptional amounts of new information on smaller
scale aspects of hail.
4. National scale studies
Studies of hail on a nationwide basis appeared largely
in two time periods, the 1940's and the 1960's. Those of
the forties in the United States were based largely on
weather service data, as derived from about 200
first-order stations. Those of the sixties were based 1)
on weather service data but often included the
cooperative substation data, and 2) on crop-hail
insurance data. The findings are discussed in spatial and
temporal sections.
a. Spatia/findings
The best available information on average hail-day
patterns, both annual and monthly, appeared in a
climatography (Stout and Changnon, 1968). It was
based on hail-day data from 1285 stations in 17 states.
The pattern of the average annual number of days with
hail (Fig. 1) shows 1) the wide range of average point
values from 9 days in Wyoming to less than one day in
OF DAYS WITH HAIL
Regional high 0
STANLEY A. CHANGNON, JR.
many points of the nation, 2) the great amount of
variability across short distances, and 3) the maxima in
the central section of the nation.
Hail in Mexico is a spring and summer phenomenon
and occurs almost totally in the Central Plateau and
high mountains. Most points average 3 to 4 hail days per
year with a few at higher elevations averaging 6 to 7
days. Hail is extremely infrequent along the coastal
areas and in the Yucatan Peninsula.
The hail climatology of Canada is dominated by low
frequency (I to 2 hail days per year) in most locales.
Some of the mountainous areas of British Columbia and
Alberta including the lee-of-the-mountain areas of
Alberta average more than 2 hail days annually,
reaching 5 in some locales. Summer is the prime hail
season in most areas. However, along the West Coast,
marine and orographic conditions produce a maximum
of small hail in the spring; and lake effects lead to a fall
maximum in the lee of the Great Lakes (U. S.
Department of Commerce, 1947).
As Lemons (1942a) noted, "The worldwide pattern
of hail occurrence is characterized by a greater
frequency in continental interiors of mid-latitudes,
decreasing seaward, poleward, and equatorward."
Most hail is either frontally or orographically induced
although the Great Lakes affect the frequency. There
are few local type hailstorms away from the mountains.
Study of the United States pattern (Fig. l) led to
identification of28 major hail incidence areas (Stout and
Changnon, 1968). The ten in the western mountains
occur along peculiar orographic features and are
distributed from near Mexico northward into the
Canadian Rockies. There are five maxima related to
influences of the Great Lakes, and other very localized
high frequency areas have developed in the last 25 years
at St. Louis (Changnon and Huff, 1973), Chicago,
Cleveland, Houston, and Washington, D. C. (Huff and
Changnon, I973b) because urban factors have induced
added hailstorms east (downstorm) of these major
cities. This is reflected in the patterns of crop-hail
insurance losses which maximize downstorm (east) of
St. Louis and Chicago (Changnon, 1970a; 1973a). Stout
and Changnon (1968) also identified 13 hail maxima in
the Great Plains and Midwest of the United States.
These appear in locales where macroscale weather
conditions, favorable to hail, most often occur.
Analysis of four key hail characteristics (average
frequency, primary cause of hail, peak hail season, and
intensity) was accomplished to delineate hail regions of
the U. S. Fig. 2 reveals that 14 regions exist with marine
effects predominating on the West Coast and in the
lee-of-the-lakes. Differences between regions 8 and 10
are a result of different hail frequencies, whereas
regions 7 and 8 differ only in peak season. Regions 8 and
9 differ because of the frequency of hail and intensity.
111
WIC tAUSt:
orHill DAYS
Avt AACI: AAIL DAY fi(QUUIC"f
fCill YEA- IISIDI: -~1011
AaMarine , M..Macrosca l e , 0"'0rogr aphi c
E"'Early , L: Late , Fa=fall , Su .. Surrmer , Sp: Spring , W=Wi nt er
l =l ight , M==Mode r at e , H=Heavy
FIG. 2. Hail regions of the United States.
Although most hail is produced by thunderstorms,
climatologies of these two phenomena differ in some
respects. Thunderstorms basically exhibit a latitudinal
distribution across North America, whereas hail has an
inner-continental maximum with the frequency de-
creasing outward in all directions. A commonly used
climatic means of comparing hail and thunderstorms is
the hail-thunder ratio, based on point values at
first-order stations (U. S. Department of Commerce,
1947; Shands, 1944). Nationally, this is a very low ratio
(generally 1 or 2 hail days to 20 thunderstorm days).
However, this is an unrealistic comparison since hail
days are based on hail at the station (point) whereas
thunder data are cases where thunder is heard at the
point and the audibility range of thunder means that a
point samples activity in a 160 to 320 km 2 area. This
" point" difference diminishes as one compares hail and
thunder frequencies over increasing areas. For in-
stance, the hail-thunder ratio at Chicago is 6%, but that
for Illinois is 68% (Changnon, 1962a). About 85% (east)
to 95% (west) of all hailfalls in Illinois occur with
thunderstorms (Changnon, 1957). In contrast to most of
North America, the average hail frequency exceeds
the thunderstorm frequency in a few places like
Jerusalem, Malta (3 hail days to 1 with thunder), and
southeastern England (Shaw, 1932).
Patterns of hail based on various combinations of
hail-day data, wind data, and insurance data have been
developed to examine further the regional variation in
hail over the continent. Fig. 3 portrays the crop district
average (crop-hail insurance) loss cost values for the
key loss states (Changnon, I972a). The highest loss is
$12.1 in southwestern North Dakota and the highest
losses (> $6) are N-S oriented in the lee of the Rockies.
Values decrease rapidly eastward becoming less than
112 PART I: HAIL PHYSICS

KILOMETERS
0 250 500

CROP-D!~IR!C AV(R,IG[ L~~ C~l~. 19'8-67.

LO~~ COST !~ (LO~~ LIAII!L!IY) • 100.

FIG. 3. Crop-district average loss costs, 1948-1967. Loss cost is (loss + liability) x 100.

$1 in the Mississippi Valley, but then become higher in into the Great Plains because this area is where large
the eastern tobacco states because of the susceptibility hailstones (the major factor in property loss) are most
of the crop to damage from small hail. frequent and where high winds occur most often in the
Intensity of hail (number of stones, sizes of stones, United States.
and associated wind) has been studied on national Hailstone sizes have not been systematically meas-
scales on the basis of two receptors, crops and ured across the United States or Canada, but small-area
property. Changnon and Stout ( 1967a) derived a pattern hail studies furnish some climatic information of
of hail intensity (Fig. 4) based on indices of crop regional differences in North America. The hailstone
damages. Hailstorms in the peak of the loss season in size distributions for five areas of North America (Fig.
eastern Colorado produce hail that is 18 times more 6) were obtained from the dimensional data summaries
intense than that of typical crop season storms in of Hull (1958), Paul (1968), and Changnon (1971c).
Illinois and Indiana. Intensity decreases very rapidly Clearly, the greatest frequency oflarger stones is found
away from the mountains, being only 50% as high in the in the lee of the mountain locales (Alberta and
western Great Plains states. However, this pattern is Colorado) with smaller stones dominating the distribu-
partially influenced by regional E-W differences in crop tions in Illinois, New England, and Arizona (a mountain
type and planting characteristics for a given crop like top area). Illinois averages 24 stones per 930 cm2 in each
wheat (Changnon, 1966b). Collins and Howe (1964) hailfall (Changnon, 1970b), whereas the average
empirically developed a hail intensity pattern spe- number in northeast Colorado is 202 per 930 cm
2

cifically for potential property loss using insurance data, (Schleusenere t a/. , 1965). These regional differences in
stone size data, and extreme wind frequency data. The sizes, frequency of stones, and wind with hail produce
pattern (Fig. 5) showed a N-S maximum farther east the national intensity variations depicted in Figs. 4 and 5.
STANLEY A. CHANGNON, JR. 113

b. Temporal findings EACH UN IT "' 1OOOths of 1%

OF RES!OENTIAL PROPERTY
VALUE PER YEAR
The seasonal distribution of hail in North America
varies according to the causes of hail and thus exhibits a
considerable geographical difference among the three
primary hail seasons: spring, summer, and fall. The
spring pattern is dominated by a frontally induced high
hail zone that extends from Texas to Michigan (Stout
and Changnon, 1968). Minor highs appear in southern
and western portions of the Rocky Mountains. Most
areas east of the High Plains have their maximum hail
activity in the spring months, ranging from March in the
extreme south (Texas) to May in the northern portions
of the United States and Canada.
In summer the average hail pattern is quite different.
Mountain related maxima dominate the North Ameri- FIG. 5. Index of potential hail damage to property.
can pattern from New Mexico to Alberta (Stout and
Changnon, 1968). The dominant features in fall are the maxima (Fig. 1) appear. However, some maxima in the
la~e-i_nduced highs downwind of Lakes Superior, Midwest move north or south by 50 to 200 km between
Mtchtgan, Huron, and Erie. These areas become the decades.
only ones in North America where the maximum hail Temporal variations in hail days in nine states, their
months occur in fall (Changnon, 1966a). Maxima in the average value, and the national crop-hail insurance loss
southern Rockies continue in the fall, and, as in ratio for 1901-64 are shown in Fig. 7 (Stout, 1965). The
summer, there are features in the Midwest pattern average curve has a "national state mean" of 22 hail
reflecting areal variations in frontal activity and days per year. The lowest 10-year values in the United
localized influences (urban/hill). Certain West Coast States ended in 1925 and in 1940 with the highest value
areas in the United States and Canada achieve in the 1946-1955 period. This was not reflected in the
maximization of hail in late winter or spring. national hail loss ratio from insurance data which
Information available on longer term fluctuations in showed peaks ending in 1930 and 1963. States with
hail is not extensive. Stout and Changnon (1968) lower hail frequencies (the Carolinas, Georgia, Illinois,
presented decade information based on hail-day data. and Minnesota) exhibit much less total variability than
There often is considerable difference in the central
United States between decades, but most of the major
ILLINOIS
HAILPADS
{3 YEARS)

EXPL.ANATION

~NJs~~~J~:m~ a.o
NEW ENGLAND
APPROXIMATE CENTER {3 YEARS)
OF STATE CROP •
GROWTH AREA
ISO-INTENSITY LINES 2/
/

1 2 3 4 s 6 1 a 0 o~u.1~2~3Z:1:.41:zz5:1....&.6_7L..JB
DIAMETER, an
FIG. 4. Pattern of hail intensity as determined for the peak month FIG. 6. Frequency distributions of maximum hailstone sizes reported
(June or July) of wheat and com damage. from many hailfalls at different locales.
114 PART I: HAIL PHYSICS

of rating and to assess the impact of surface orography

on hail and the rate structure (Changnon, 1963a; 1967c).
The general growth in climatic research also related to
availability of digital data and computers.

a. Regions of study
The regions where in-depth climatic studies have
70
been performed, with some pertinent climatic publica-
65
tions, include the following
60
1. Illinois-:-Huff and Changnon, 1959; Huff, 1960,
55
1961; Changnon, 1962a, 1967b, 1969d, 1971a.
1~·~oo:-'------;-;19:';-;1o:-'------:-;19*zo:------"---:-19*3o::----''----:-19*4::--0.....J.._--=-1-='=95.,--o.....J.._-,l-,L96.,...o----'---~197~0 %
2. Alberta-Douglas and Hitschfeld, 1959; Sum-
YEAR
mers, 1968; Summers and Renick, 1971;
FIG. 7. State average number of hail days, based on 10-yr values Longley and Thompson, 1965; Wojtiw and
plotted at year ending the period.
Renick, 1973; Wojtiw, 1975.
3. Colorado-Schleusener, 1963; Renne and
do those in the High Plains and mountains which have Sinclair, 1968; Beckwith, 1960; Swinbank,
higher hail-day frequencies. Texas and Montana exhibit 1971; Schickedanz and Changnon, 1970a,
great excursions in decade values (25 to 47 are the 1971.
extremes in Montana with 23 to 46 in Texas). 4. Kansas-Lemons, 1942b; Stout, 1962a, 1963;
Stout and Changnon ( 1968) also presented tabular Engeret al., 1963; Stout and Changnon, 1967.
data on decadal hail days that furnish more detailed 5. Iowa-Decker, 1952; Changnon, 1961a; Stout,
descriptions of statewide frequencies. Comparison of 1965.
these decade frequencies shows interesting regional 6. Montana-Stout, 1963, 1965.
shifts. For example, the 1941-1950 decade, in relation 7. Wisconsin-Burley et al., 1964.
to the 1931-1940 decade, showed 1) great increases in 8. Missouri-Changnon, 1961a; Stout, 1965.
hail activity in the Central and Southern High Plains 9. Nebraska-Stout, 1965.
(Texas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, 10. South Dakota-Changnon, 1966c; Stout and
and Colorado), 2) moderate increases in the Midwest Changnon, 1968.
(Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana), 3) no change in the upper 11. Great Lakes-Changnon, 1966a, 1968b.
Great Plains, and 4) decreased hail activity in the upper 12. Western United States-Harrison and Beckwith,
Great Lakes (Wisconsin and Michigan). Hail in the 1951.
1951-1960 decade, as opposed to that in 1941-1950,
increased everywhere except in Texas and the northern b. Spatial findings
High Plains states where sizeable decreases occurred.
Intensive studies of hail-day data in state-sized areas
Such examples reflect major multi-year shifts in
have provided detailed average patterns such as that
circulation patterns that change hail activity, both the
developed for part of Alberta (Fig. 8 [Wojtiw, 1975]).
general geographical pattern and the temporal trends
These and other similar studies based on extensive data
which show either continued up trends for 1930-1965
in a large region have indicated that long-term average
(Iowa, Colorado, Indiana, Missouri), or general down
frequencies were often quite different across short
trends (Montana, Wyoming, and South Dakota) during
distances, even in flat terrain areas like Illinois
this same period.
(Changnon, 1969c). Historical data have also been used
to develop the return period frequency of extremely
5. Regional-scale studies
high and low numbers ofhail days per season (Huff and
Regional-scale climatic studies have focused on Changnon, 1959). Insurance and Weather Bureau data
state, province, and geophysical areas (like the Great in Illinois were used to develop measures of hail
Lakes), and on time scales of seasons to days. There intensity patterns inside the state (Changnon, 1967b).
have been fairly extensive regional climatic investiga- These showed that hailfalls in spring in southern Illinois
tions in 12 areas of North America. These studies were were twice as intense as those in northern Illinois, but in
performed in the 1950's and 1960's as scientific and summer (crop loss season) this reversed.
commercial concerns with hail and its loss grew. This State-scale hail research in several locales also
interest was primarily rooted in the insurance industry focused on the causes of hail. Fawbush et al. (1957)
which was attempting to develop more objective means looked at the issue on a regional and national basis.
STANLEY A. CHANGNON, JR.
Synoptic factors producing hail in Alberta were
investigated by Longley and Thompson (1965). Similar
synoptic-factor studies were conducted for Colorado
(Schleusener, 1962; Renne and Sinclair, 1968), and for
Illinois (Huff, 1964; Changnon et al., 1974).
Cause-oriented research also focused on effects of
orography on hail incidence and intensity. This was
prompted by the general awareness that a relatively
great separation between the freezing level and the
surface, such as in the Tropics, was a factor in low hail
incidence due to melting stones during their long fall
through warm air. It was also prompted by the fact that
the hail insurance industry, in a rapid expansion period
after World War II, found and used apparent causal
relations between hail loss and surface elevation to set
rates in the High Plains states (Roth, 1949). However,
this relation was subsequently found to be unimportant
in other states (Huff and Changnon, 1959; Stout,
1962b), and more extensive meteorological investiga-
tions were launched to define the possible relationship
between surface features and hail in Montana (Stout,
1965), and Kansas (Stout, 1963; Enger et al., 1963).
Summary studies in Kansas (Stout and Changnon,
1967) showed that certain surface characteristics (high
elevation, flat up-slope terrain 2 to 19 km away to the
0E 3::::E3:=3E
2 ==::==364==::::~96==:==:13:2::::
8 ==1::::E60==:~
192 KILOMETERS
FIG. 8. Average hail days in Alberta, based on point values.
115
a. August 9, 1954. Long b. July 6, 1927. Multiple
swaths oriented per- hailstorms parallel to
pendicular to the front. the front.
FIG. 9. Typical hail patterns with cold fronts in the Midwest.
northwest and south, and light soil color 2 to 32 km to
the south) led to more hail in a given area. Surface
features explained up to 50% of the variations in
numbers of hail days in northwest Kansas , but only 10%
in southeast Kansas.
Another form of spatial hail studies conducted
concern major severe storms -their motions, origins,
and patterns. Changnon (1962b) studied the 128 most
severe summer hailstorm days in Illinois during 50
years, and found that 50% were reformations of a major
precipitation system that had produced hail in Iowa or
Missouri 12 to 36 hours before the outbreak in Illinois.
Many of these (60%) were produced by cold fronts and
their most typical hail patterns are shown in Fig. 9.
Motion of the storms was heavily oriented to the
northwest (73%). Crow (1969) investigated big storm
days (>$100,000 losses) in the Nebraska, Colorado,
and Kansas area and found the hail loss area had no
particular shape but varied anywhere from 1800 to
18,000 km2 in size. Many of the big storms in Nebraska
and Kansas , as in Illinois, occurred at night. Directions
of big hailstorms in eastern Colorado were found to be
highly variable (Schleusener, 1962). Similar storm track
studies for Alberta have been made by Douglas and
Hitschfeld (1959) and Wojtiw (1975).
c. Temporal findings
Most long-term trend studies on a state scale have
been described in the national scale studies (see Fig. 7).
However, a special study of the historical frequency of
all summer hail days in Illinois was pursued 1) to
identify the relationship between these frequencies and
the annual state crop-hail losses for the 1948-1961
period, and 2) to project the losses backward from 1948
to 1901 using the hail-day data if a good relationship was
found. This study (Changnon, 1960a) showed that the
extent of area with hail days exceeding the 5-year return
frequency predicted well the annual loss in Illinois (i.e.,
the area of many hail days = degree of loss).
116 PART I: HAIL PHYSICS

Indiana have several different peak months of hail

activity, such as March (extreme south), April (cen-
tral), and May (north). Primary months of hail activity
in selected regions can be found in specific climatol-
ogies referenced under Section 4a. The latitudinal
movement of hail activity in the Central United States
has also been studied on a weekly basis (Changnon,
1963b).
State-scale studies of daily hail occurrences have
focused largely on dates of occurrence or on the
statewide frequency per month and year. Studies for
Illinois (Changnon, 1962c) and Alberta (Wojtiw, 1975)
summarize the frequency of hail days by date. They
show that certain short periods (like the end of May in
Alberta and Illinois) have relatively high likelihoods for
hail. Similar data frequency studies have been done for
northeast Colorado (Schickedanz and Changnon, 1971)
and southwest South Dakota (Changnon, 1966c). The
average frequency of hail days in the growing season is
53 in Illinois (Changnon, 1962a) and 33 in Iowa (Shands,
1944). Seasonal extremes in Illinois have ranged from
FIG. 10. Seasonal variations in storm intensity-crop susceptibility 84 days to 36 days. The Alberta 15-year seasonal
indices for com in selected states.
average is 61 hail days with a high of77 in 1957 and a low
of37 in 1961. July with 21 days (67% of possible days) is
This association between frequency-area of hail days the leading month in Alberta (Wojtiw, 1975).
and crop-hail intensity was further refined and demon- The diurnal distribution of hail has been determined
strated for 19 states (Changnon and Stout, 1967a). The for Alberta (Summers and Paul, 1967), for Illinois
Illinois study of historical data revealed that the big loss (Changnon, 1968c), and for the Colorado-Nebraska-
years were most often isolated events separated by Kansas area (Crow, 1969). The minimum 3-hour period
many years of low loss, although the high years of activity in all states occurs during the 0500-1000 LST
sometimes occurred in pairs (1911-1912, 1921-1922, period, but the maximum 3-hour period differs greatly.
1953-1954, and 1974-1975. There were no detectable At Denver, which is very close to the mountains, it is
cycles in their frequency. However, reference to Fig. 7 1200-1500 LST. In areas slightly farther east of the
suggests that major 10- to 30-yr trends in hail frequency mountains in Alberta, eastern Colorado-western Kan-
occur in the western and High Plains states but not in sas and western Nebraska (Musil and Dennis, 1968) the
Illinois and other midwestern and eastern states. Stout maximum is the 1500-1800 period. Farther east (at
(1963) showed that the long-term distribution of hail Lincoln and Omaha), the peak is in the 1800-2100
loss in Kansas has major fluctuations with 10- to 25-yr period. This suggests an areal sequence of storm
up and down trends resulting in peak loss periods activity (or storm-producing conditions). The Illinois
separated by about 20 years. diurnal distributions (Changnon, 1968c) show a peak in
In-seasonal variations in crop-hail intensity for the 1400-1700 period (28%) with a secondary peak in
various states and crops were developed (Changnon the 0000-0300 period (12%). Omaha also has an early
and Stout, 1967a). Those based on corn loss appear in morning secondary maximum. The Illinois hail distribu-
Fig. 10 revealing a peak in July in all5 states. This is a tion is similar to that of Illinois tornadoes (Wilson and
function of the crop's susceptability to damage and to a Changnon, 1971).
peak in actual hail intensity. Hail intensity is a function The point durations of hail have been determined on a
ofthe number of stones, duration of hail, wind with hail, regional basis for Alberta (Wojtiw, 1975) and Illinois
and size of hail. In an effort to isolate fluctuations in hail (Changnon, 1967b). The Alberta average is 10 minutes,
intensity, as opposed to the changing susceptability of a and the areal distribution shows highest values (> 15
crop to damage, Changnon (1967b) used four sets of min) along the mountains (west of Calgary) and then
data for Illinois showing that the intensity actually again 140 km to the east. The Illinois values show an
maximizes in August and September. Thus, the average for non-damaging hailfalls of 6.5 min with 9.5
"insurance" peak in July (Fig. 10) is largely due to the min the average for crop damaging hailfalls. It should be
great vulnerability of crops to hail damage at that time. noted that both sets of these values came from reports
States with considerable N -S extent like Illinois and of hail observers who have been found to overestimate
STANLEY A. CHANG NON, JR. 117

the many short ( < 5 min) durations because they tend
to estimate to the nearest 5 min value (Pell, 1971).
d. Hail and associated weather
State-sized studies of hail with thunderstorms have
been done only for Iowa (Shands, 1944), and Illinois
(Changnon, 1962a). In the crop season (mid-May to
mid-September) Iowa averages 85 thunderstorm days
and 33 hail days, a ratio of 39%. The Illinois averages
are 77 thunderstorm days and 53 hail days, a ratio of
68%. The difference found in hail days is due to the
more thorough identification of hail (Weather Bureau
plus insurance data) used in Illinois. When Weather
Bureau data alone are used to define Illinois hail days,
the average drops to 22, 11 less than Iowa. In Illinois,
32%, or 242 of the thunder days had no hail, and on half
of these days (121) thunderstorms were reported over
10% of the state without any hail reported. In-state
variations showed that 10% of the thunder days in
northern and central Illinois were without hail, whereas
20% of those in the south were not hail days. Fifty
percent of the thunderstorms produced under air mass,
warm frontal, and low center conditions were with hail,
but 75% of those thunder days with cold or stationary
fronts were also hail days.
Some regional studies have focused on rain with hail.
Crow (1969) showed that the crop damaging hailstorms
in Nebraska, Colorado, and Kansas were generally
associated with point amounts of0.5 to 2.5 em, and that
25% of the crop seasonal rain fell with damaging hail.
Huff and Changnon (1959) identified the 24 most
widespread hail days in Illinois during 1925-1948 and
found that heavy rainfall was common. Rainfall on
these days over 50,000 km2 typically was 48% of the
monthly average total, and that in the storm cores
(3000 km 2 ) was 93% (9 to 12 em) of the monthly
average.
Studies of tornadoes in Illinois (Wilson and
Changnon, 1971; Changnon and Semonin, 1966) have
shown that major long-track (> 40 km) tornadoes
always have hailfalls somewhere near their tracks.
Nearly 96% of all 103 tornado days in Illinois in
1951-1960 were hail days, and 12% of all hail days in
Illinois were tornado days. Browning and Foote (1975)
have identified the supercell, a long-lived hail producing
storm as an important severe storm in the Great Plains,
but its frequency there is not established. Large
networks plus radar studies of hail in central Illinois
have identified only three days with such supercell
storms in the 1967-1974 period (Wilson and Changnon,
1971; Changnon and Morgan, 1974). These were all with
tornadoes and severe hailfalls but they represented only
10% of the storms and the damage produced in the
8-year period.
e. Economic aspects
The most extensive economic studies of state hail
losses were those by Changnon (1972a) and Boone
(1974). Changnon focused on all aspects of crop and
property insurance data for the 1960-1969 period,
whereas Boone utilized 1966-1970 crop insurance data
to study loss. The first four columns in Table 1
summarize many of the crop insurance values for the
top 10 states. Boone's loss values are added since they
are estimates of total crop loss, not just that loss
reported by the commercial insurance firms which
insure approximately 15% of the nation's crops.
Comparison of Boone's loss estimates with each state's
value of annual crop production reveals that the loss in
midwestern high loss states (Illinois and Indiana) is 1%
of the crop value, becoming 2.4% in Iowa, and then 4 to
5% in the High Plains states.
Boone's estimate of the average total United States
loss is $403 million with $101 million to wheat, $73
million to corn, $53 million to soybeans, $38 million to
cotton, $38 million to tobacco, $37 million to fruits and

TABLE l. Ten leading crop-hail insurance states, based on insurance data for 1960-1%9, and Boone's ( 1974) 1966-70 national estimates.

States and annual average values

Total Total esti-

Number of lndividuai insurance mated loss,
Liability* paid losses paid losses listed loss* (Boone, 1974)
Rank ($million) (1000's)* ($1000's)* ($ million) ($ million)
1 III (315.1) NC (10.8) Ida (1.8) ND (5.5) Tex (51.0)
2 NC (190.8) Ky (9.8) NY (1.7) NC (5.0) Iowa (39.6)
3 Iowa (161.5) ND (9.3) Ore (1.6) Tex (4.6) Neb (35.8)
4 ND (112.6) Iowa (8.2) Fla (1.5) Iowa (3.9) Minn (28.5)
5 Neb (91.5) Kan (7.8) Cal (1.4) Neb (3.7) Kan (27.1)
6 Kan (86.0) Neb (7.7) Ariz (1.4) Kan (3.5) ND (26.2)
7 Tex (84.4) SD (5.4) Pa (1.3) III (2.4) NC (16.6)
8 Minn (73.7) III (5.0) Wash (1.2) SD (2.4) III (16.3)
9 Wash (64.2) Tex (4.5) Mont (l.l) Minn (2.2) SD (16.2)
lO Ky (59.9) Minn (4.4) Colo (1.0) Ky (1.9) Colo (15.9)
* Insurance data.
118 PART I: HAIL PHYSICS

100 Dakota, 77 in Nebraska, 62 in Oklahoma, and 63 in

0::::
c:c 1951 Texas. Average wheat area damaged by hail and
I.J.J ~ 1948
insured includes 80 600 hectares in North Dakota, 78
>- ~194~
0::::
d ~---· f.-;;?
·----.-
~---····· ~1950 400 in Kansas, and 36 400 in Oklahoma. Com area

;;. 17 ... ·..··<>

0 ~.:"' ..::;- 1954
LL.
80 1957 damaged increases from east to west, being 11 ,200
I.J.J
(.!' ~~/ ~:--:::. ~/ hectares in Illinois and 35,000 in Iowa.
c:c ,.....-:: 1956

rf'/ V.i...-··'/ ~/v

/A'/ 1955
::::;::
c:c As shown in Table 1, Illinois leads in liability (amount
0
of insurance), but North Carolina leads in number of
.....1
c:c 60 I / paid losses because tobacco farms are typically small
1-
0 li 1(/ f'/
// /~ and a damaging storm may affect 50 tobacco farms there
1-
!4 P' but only 10 grain farms in Illinois. Damage to high-value
~ Vf
LL.
0
1- crops grown in Idaho, New York, Oregon, and Florida
z:
40 make the individual paid losses high in these states
'I If/
I.J.J
u
0::::
I.J.J where hail frequency is relatively low.
0.. ,7,~
Another important aspect of state-scale economics of
.w
I.J.J
>
....... hail concerns the loss per day. Stout et at. (1959)
1-
c:c 20 presented results for Illinois showing the amount ofloss
...J I
~
::::;:: per day during the 1948-57 period. Losses from the 10
~
u worst storm days in each year were compared with total
annual loss, and annual cumulative curves of this
relationship appear in Fig. 11. Depending on the year,
2 4 6 8 10 12 14
the worst storm day produced between 16 and 54% of
NUMBER OF HAILSTORM DAYS the total yearly loss, and the five worst loss days per
FIG. 11. Cumulative percent of annual damage caused by the 10 year produced between 55 and 84% of the total. Hence,
most damaging storms in Illinois. much of the loss is concentrated in a few storm days.
Examples of these major loss events in Illinois are
vegetables, and $63 million to all other crops. illustrated by Stout et al. (1960) and Changnon (1966d).
Changnon's 1969 national estimate of annual average These are usually produced by many hailstorms that
loss is lower at $284 million, but it is based on a different occurred repeatedly over a moderate to large area
base period (1960-1969) and dollar values. Based on during a 6- to 18-hour period. Descriptions of major
limited available data (Changnon, 1960b), the national storm days in Kansas, North Dakota, and South Dakota
property (houses, greenhouses, autos, industrial are available (Changnon, 1972a; Frisby, 1963) and also
facilities, .etc.) loss was estimated (Changnon, 1972a) to reveal that much of the annual state loss is concentrated
be 1/9 of the crop loss. This would be $45 million if one in just a few days, generally less than 10% of the total
uses Boone's crop total or $31 million if one uses hail loss days.
Changnon's.
Summers and Wojtiw (1971) made similar economic 6. Small-area studies
analyses of hail loss in Alberta using 1961-1968 data.
The average annual crop loss was $22.8 million (1-year A series of mesoscale hail networks developed to
high of $57.9 million and a low of $10.6), and the support hail studies began during the late 1950's in
secondary (business) losses due to hail were estimated Colorado (Beckwith, 1960; Schleusener and Jennings,
at $11.5 million per year. Property losses were 1960), Alberta (Douglas and Hitschfeld, 1959), Illinois
estimated at $2.5 million annually, roughly 10% of the (Wilk, 1961), and New England (Donaldson, 1959). All
crop loss. The Alberta total of$36 million coupled with were aimed at collecting information on hail unavailable
the United States total of $403 million, plus property in existing weather service or insurance records. In the
loss of $45 million results in a North American total of 1960's more hail networks composed of volunteer
$484 million annually based on dollar values during the observers and/or hail sensors, developed in western
1961-1970 period. This does not include secondary South Dakota (Koscielski, 1967), western North
losses. Dakota (Miller et al., 1974), and western Nebraska
Changnon (1972a) also presented, for each state and (Musil and Dennis, 1968). Newer, much denser
for each major crop, the average annual numbers of hail networks largely utilizing hail instruments with rain-
loss days and the average number of acres damaged by gages were installed in central Illinois in 1967
hail. Average hail loss days to com include 24 in (Changnon, 1969c), in the St. Louis area (Changnon and
Indiana, 50 in Illinois, and 90 in Iowa. Average wheat Huff, 1973), and in Colorado (Swinbank, 1971) to
loss days decrease southward with 87 days in North provide the basic data for hail modification studies.
STANLEY A. CHANGNON, JR. 119

...
Ill

...,
<U 2600
<U
E
0

:¥
...
<U

"'c:r
::0
Ill

.;
w
260
"'
c(

RATIO, AREA AVERAGE HAIL-DAY FREQUENCY TO POINT AVERAGE HAIL-DAY FREQUENCY

FIG. 12. Area-point hail day ratios as a function of area size.

To supplement these networks, special field investi- a. Spatial findings

gations were made of selected hailstorm cases.
Schleusener (1962) investigated Colorado storms, as
did Mueller and Morgan (1974). Summers and Renick
(1971) performed detailed investigations of Alberta
storms. The most extensive effort at field studies of
specific hailstorms occurred in Illinois. These typically
involved radar, crop loss data, and systematic farm-to-
farm interviews. Some major storms were studied
(Changnon, 1964; 1969d; 1970c; Changnon and Wilson,
1971), and some small hailstorms were also investigated
in detail (Changnon, 1962d; 1965; Changnon and Stout,
1963; Changnon and Barron, 1971). Two storms were
similarly studied in South Dakota (Changnon and Stout,
1966).
Data and results discussed in this section are from 1)
the aforementioned mesoscale network ranging from
400 to 5000 km 2 , 2) the field studies of individual
storms, 3) a few very small microscale networks (< 3
km 2 ) operated in Colorado and Illinois in portions of the
1967-1974 period (Morgan and Towery, 1974), and 4)
hailpads (0.1 m2) from Illinois (Changnon, 1973b).
Spatial findings are presented basically by decreasing
space and time scales, beginning with meso-networks
and progressing downward in time and space through
single cells and on to point data (0.1 m2 ).
Relationships between hail-day frequencies of
nearby areas were investigated (Changnon and Schic-
kedanz, 1969), and poor correlations (coefficients
< +0.5) indicated a weak relationship. The relationship
of crop-hail loss values in adjacent areas was worse
with correlation coefficients typically being +0.3
(Schickedanz and Changnon, 1969).
Changnon (1969d) did find that the annual number of
hail days (as defined by weather service stations) inside
a 2600 km 2 area in Illinois correlated well with the
number of loss days, as defined by the insurance data.
Thus, hail frequency and intensity inside a small area
appear related, but hail events in one small area do not
relate well to those in an adjacent area.
Studies of point-area relationship of hail frequencies
in an area began with Beckwith (1960) who found a 4:1
120 PART I: HAIL PHYSICS

u
f. I BSON C (T\'

CHAMPAIGt=j

URBANA

KILOMETERS
0 16

oro
0 •
I
• 0 I~ 0 0 0
• 0

lr
NORTH
KILOMETERS
0 5 0 RA INGAGE -HAILPAOS
0 HAILPAO

NUMBER OF HAIL DAYS, JUNE - SEPTEMBER 1968, IN

CENTRAL ILLINOIS DENSE HAILPAO NETWORK

FIG. 13. Annual hail patterns based on point frequencies in two Illinois networks.

(area-to-point) ratio in a 400 km 2 Denver area network.
Weather Bureau data in northeast Colorado were used
to investigate point-area ratios for the evaluation phase
of the design of the National Hail Research Experiment
(Schickedanz and Changnon, 1970a). Changnon
(1971b) used these results and those from 7 Illinois
networks, 4 regions in Colorado and Illinois, and 2
states, all of varying sizes to study the point-area
relationship of hail-day frequencies. The results appear
in Fig. 12, and the network equation found was
lnR = 0.058 + 0.313 InA, where A is the area (km2)
and R the area-point ratio. The most interesting result
was the lack of geographical differences.
Dense hail networks have revealed the great varia-
tion of the annual frequency of hailfalls (Fig. 13a) and
hail days (Fig. 13b). The variations over the 5000 km 2
network with 5 km spacing between hailpad-raingage
sites include values ofO to 10. Inside the 260 km 2 hail pad
network (Fig. 13b), the 4-month values varied from 0 to
4 across 4 km distances. Changnon and Morgan (1976)
STANLEY A. CHANGNON, JR. 121

showed that 8-year totals in these same dense Illinois

networks exhibited similar point-to-point variability 1101· 1)00
K.lt.O><l:T11RS
1)01·1'00
(values of 7 to 51). ••o•-•soo 0 16 32 48 64

The next time scale down from network seasonal

values discussed are hailstorm days. Examples of daily
patterns on a state-sized area are shown in Fig. 9. In a
meso-network, hailstorms can be minor events with
hail over only 10 km2 (Changnon and Stout, 1963), or
complex days in a South Dakota network (Changnon
and Stout, 1%6) or Illinois (Changnon and Wilson,
1971). This last-mentioned Illinois storm produced many
hailfalls ranging from 1 up to 5 during a 13-hour period at
all the 200 sites in a 5000 km 2 network.
At a different space and time scale is the hailswath.
This is an area enveloping semi-continuous hail areas,
presumably from one thunderstorm, and these have
been labeled and studied since 1944. Hailswath
definition was usually based on insurance loss data or
observer data, both of which were sufficiently accurate
in time and space to measure spatial coherence, but
were of insufficient density to define the time interval
structure. Kaster (1944) labeled hailswath areas as
being 4 km wide, and Lemons (1943) indicated a width
of 1.6 to 3.2 km. Stout et al. (1960) studied 8 years of
Illinois hailswath data and found that the average
FIG. 14. Structure of hailstorms depicted on various scales.
dimensions were 40 by 10 km with a swath defined on a. Hailstreaks in 10 h period
80% of all hail days. Typically two swaths occurred per
hail day, averaging 30 km apart. Their direction
(orientations) included S, SW, W, NW, and N. In Fig. The dense networks of the Water Survey in central
14a, hailswaths are the two envelopes extending across Illinois and around St. Louis have depicted a wide
central Illinois, as developed from Changnon (1968d). variety of hailstreaks such as those in Fig. 14b, which
Both swaths were from supercell storms. also shows the outline of their associated raincells.
Frisby (1963) made an extensive study of major Such data for 434 hail streaks from 1967-1968 were used
hailswaths in the Great Plains, and Schleusener (1962) to summarize their characteristics (Changnon, 1970b).
defined them for several northeast Colorado storms. Their median size was 20.5 km2 (ranging from 2.3 to
The observer data from Alberta have resulted in a 2040 km2 ), area average energy was 0.225 joules/930
mapping of all hailswaths in a 17-year period (Wojtiw, cm2 , the average duration was 10 minutes, average
1975). Their directions were quite variable (SW, W, motion was WSW at 32 km/hour, and the average width
NW) and 34% were 16 to 49 km long, 31% were 50 to 80 was 1.8 km and length 95 km. They tended to exist in all
km, and 35% were more than 80 km in length. parts of a raincell pattern, but most hailstreaks were in
The definitive hail studies of the observer hailfall data the heavy rain core (Fig. 14b).
in Alberta (Douglas, 1965; Pell, 1971), plus the very Further time-space analysis of hailstreaks led to the
dense instrumental networks in Illinois which time- definition and study of hail areas, the surface outline of
recorded the hailfalls and associated rainfall (Changnon the hailstreak at any given instant. Schleusener and
et a/., 1967) revealed a hail entity within many Henderson (1962) looked at the frequency of Colorado
hailswaths. It was called a hailstreak, the surface hail areas by their locale within radar echoes. The type
outline of a single volume of hail produced in a storm of time detail and spatial accuracy needed for this
(Changnon, 1970b). Hailstreaks can be considered the physical description was revealed by Pell (1971) for
surface representation of the "hail shaft" (Schleusener Alberta storms. Case studies of 16 Illinois hailstorms
and Henderson, 1962). Most hailstreak information produced sufficiently detailed data to develop time
available are from Illinois (Changnon and Morgan, series information on Illinois hail areas (Changnon,
1976) and Missouri networks (Huff and Changnon, 1968e). The resulting model of these hail areas revealed
1973a), although limited 1966 field studies in southwest their typical internal structure including the distribution
South Dakota provided generalized hailstreak charac- of hailstone sizes, the areal extent, placement of hail
teristics for that area (Changnon et a/., 1967). with respect to rain core, etc. Fig. 14c portrays the
122 PART I: HAIL PHYSICS

considerable variability (values of 80 to 360/930 cm2 ). A

EXPLA ATIO
X • Report of no ha II wilh
each rain cell
• S • Ha II report , and where
known, the tiiiiC.' difference
(l•lnutes) between start of
r ain and start of hail
~:~~'>{ • lsohyet for total rainfall
o./ (inches) from rain cell
c:::::::> • Halls t rea k boundary
/ • hochrones of rain stHt
~,J t iiiiC.' , COT
~ and the vertical and horizontal angles of the
KILOMETERS
0 16 32 48
very dense small network of 7 sensors operated for 6
years in a 0.3 km2 area in Illinois allowed an even more
detailed examination ofhailstreaks and windblown hail.
The hailstool sensors used (Changnon, 1973b) permit-
ted analyses of windblown hail, and typical results for
part of a hailstreak are depicted in Fig. 14e. Considera-
ble micro-scale variability is shown in all char-
acteristics-energy, number of stones, stone sizes,
wind-driven hail. Morgan and Towery (1977) have
discovered, through study of aerial photographs of
crop-hail damage, the existence of'' hails tripes.'' These
are long (100m to 3 km) and narrow (5 to 50 m) parallel
strips of different damage levels along a hailstreak,
believed to be a function of wind speeds and sorting of
hailstones.
Such areal variations reflect on the sampling re-
quirements per unit area in a network. Changnon
(1968f) studied the effect of sampling density on the
measurement of the areal extent of damaging hail, and
concluded that at least one site per 2 km2 over an area
was needed to measure adequately the area of loss in
the region. Another aspect of this sampling issue was
64

.D . ·c~ .
FIG. l4b. Two typical raincells and their hailstreaks.
. ·\~·
dimensional model of the hail areas throughout their
life. The hail area has a tendency 1) to tum to the right
during its life and away from the center of the rain core
(where it typically starts); 2) to be largest at the 60%
point in its life; and 3) to have its center oflarge stones
·; :)
-~""Q·~·
rotate counter-clockwise along the back or rear of the

-~-
area. 0 • •

An even finer areal study of hail was provided by very

dense networks (hail sensors spaced 10 to 100m apart)
over 0.3 to 3 km2 areas. Networks of this type in
Colorado andJllinois sensed only segments of a passing
hailstreak, but they provided extremely detailed
information on the substructure of streaks (Morgan and
Towery, 1974). Fig. 14d presents the hailstone fre-
quency pattern for a hailstreak that crossed a 1.6 x 1
km network with 120 hailpads, and it depicts the

KILOIIET[~

It 20\ 01 0 '123~5

801

1001

• tlNlUI: ttAIL AI«.A

o CLNILR AAIN CORl
• Cl tUt l...ARGl HAIL R[C,ICN

FIG. l4c. Dimensional models of surface hail areas during different FIG. l4d. Number of hailstones in small network (1.6 km2 )
times (%) of hailstreak life. from one hailstreak passage.
STANLEY A. CHANGNON, JR. 123

VERTICAL
HAILSTONE NUMBER OF (side) SENSOR

~30
26-3
•
26-1
• 1.
NUMBER HAILSTONES WITH
1_,- DIAMETER

~Q
• >5 rnm
I
.0078
t.., •
ENERGY, joules/930 cm 2
~'3'5
35-8
037~
H 37-2
.. 0081
I
3K·~~r MAXIMUM 52
VERTICAL v
<5~30 • "'M

1
ANGLE v'.l'
~160°
v "'
<d"" ~ ~
S..y
RANGE OF
.,-./AZIMUTH
/"r ~ 101 o ANGLES
1o-o 20-1 22 - 0 <s
0 ... 0047 ~
AZH1UTH V
DIRECTION '?'
L ~ CENTROID
CENTROID
OF VERTICAL
HORIZONTAL ANGLES
(top) SENSOR

FIG. 14e. Variability of various hailfall parameters from a portion of one

hailstreak on a mini-network.

investigated (Changnon, 1973a) by studying variations
in hailfalls (the point hail from a hailstreak) on the 930
cm 2 hailpad sensors. The hailfalls on 913 hailpads in
Illinois during 1971-1972 were analyzed by comparing
energy values on each of the four corners. The results
for two of the energy classes (Fig. 15) illustrate the
amount of micro variation.
Thus considerable variation is found in all scales of
hail, ranging from that of the 20-year national average
(Fig. 1) to the storm and point scales shown on Figs. 14
and 15. Information on hailstone sizes has already been
reviewed (Fig. 6). However, an exceptional amount of
added information on stone sizes by varying storm,
monthly, and synoptic weather classes is available for
Illinois (Changnon, 1970b) and Alberta (Charlton and
List, 1972; Paul, 1968; and Wojtiw, 1975). The average
impact energy in Illinois is 0.2 J per 930 cm2 (Changnon,
1970b) as opposed to 5 J per 930 cm 2 in northeast
Colorado (Schleusener et al., 1965).
b. Temporal findings
Long-term variations, trends and shifts in point and
small-area hail frequencies have been the focus of
studies on 1) climatic changes potentially related to
effects of land-use changes, and 2) point and area
frequencies as related to the design and verification of
planned hail suppression projects (Thorn, 1957;
Changnon and Schickedanz, 1969; Schickedanz and
Changnon, 1971; Changnon, 1974a). Changnon (1975a)
and Henderson and Changnon (1972) presented hail-
day data and hail insurance crop-loss data from the
Texas Panhandle that show abrupt 50 to 100% increases
in hail in the late 1940's. These shifts are apparently
related to the rapid growth of irrigation that has the
potential to significantly affect summer precipitation
processes (Schickedanz, 1976).
Of equal significance was the evidence that the large
Chicago urban-industrial area affected precipitation
processes including hail in northwestern Indiana
(Changnon, 1968a). This effect, located 16 to 50 km
beyond Chicago, resulted in a 400% increase of hail
days and a trebling oflocal crop-hail losses (Changnon,
1970a). Further climatic studies showed statistically
significant (90 to 430%) increases in hail days just
downwind of six cities (Huff and Changnon, 1973b).
METROMEX, a national project designed to define and
understand the effect of St. Louis metropolitan area on
precipitation, included an extensive hailpad-raingage
network (Changnon, 1975b). The study ofhailfalls and
hailstreaks for 1971-1972 (Changnon and Huff, 1973)
shows hail values within a 4,000 km2 area east of St.
Louis, in relation to values west of St. Louis, that are
80% higher in hail days, 250% higher in the number of
large hailstones (;::: 15 mm), 20% higher in the number
of hailstreaks, and 600% higher in hail energy. These
increases are supported by higher crop-hail losses east
of St. Louis (Changnon, 1973a). In summary, urban
effects on the atmosphere have led to more days with
hail, more hailstorms, and more intense hail.
Temporal information on hailswaths and hailstreaks
is largely limited to that available in Illinois (Stout et al.,
1960; Changnon, 1970b). The average duration of
hailswaths was 45 minutes with a maximum of 3 hours.
NW
6.6% 5.3%
t NW
10.0% 9.1%
g
7.6% 8. 3% 8. 6% 8. 3%
SE
~ SE
0.05-0.2 1-2
joules/930 em' joules/930 em'
FIG. 15. Percent of total energy values in each 230 cm2 area of
913 Illinois hailpads.
124 PART I: HAIL PHYSICS

total. Rainfall at a point in cases when hail occurred

simultaneously averaged 27% of the season total. This
compares favorably with Crow's (1969) findings for
Colorado which showed that 25% of the point rainfall in
the hail season came on days when damaging hail fell.
Hail with wind has been studied in two microscale
networks operated in Colorado and Illinois (Changnon,
1973b; Morgan and Towery, 1974). Wind with hail was
QLLL-~Li~Li_L~~~_L
5 20 40 60
_L~
80 90 95 98 99
__
99. 9 99. 99
found to be highly variable with stones blown from most
PROBABILITY, percent angles ranging from SSW to W, and through NNE.
FIG. 16. Probabilities for summer hail days in two different Vertical angles of stone arrival averaged 40° (Fig. 14e).
sized Illinois areas. Patterns of windblown stones across a 3 km 2 area were
generally quite variable, but patterns were less variable
Hailstreaks had an average duration of 10 minutes with in 0.3 km2 area. Windblown stones in Illinois occurred
an extreme of 90 minutes (a supercell). Periods of hail in 60% of all hailfalls, and when windblown stones
within fixed areas in Illinois had average durations of occurred at a point, 66% (on the average) of the stones
1.1 hour for 640 km2 , 2. 7 hour in 2,600 km 2 (Changnon, were affected by wind (vertical angles > 15°).
1970b), and 6.0 hour in 5,000 km2 (Changnon et al., The relationship of hail to radar echoes has also been
1974). studied extensively. Considerable effort has concerned
The diurnal distributions of hail are revealed in relationships between surface hail and characteristics
detailed analyses of data from mesoscale hail networks of echoes aloft. However, since this review concerns
in Illinois (Changnon, 1970b), Colorado (Beckwith, only surface hail, only the findings relevant to
1960) and Alberta (Pell, 1971). All showed an afternoon near-surface echoes and hail are presented. Changnon
maximum with a secondary nocturnal maximum in (1972d) found that areal extent of hail for a storm period
Illinois. The hailfall durations accurately recorded at could be estimated from surface reflectivity described
lllinois hailpad-raingage stations were markedly shorter by the highest half-order of magnitude in the storm
than those being reported by hail observers. Nocturnal period (given hail occurred). A fair relationship was
hailfalls, on the average, were 2 minutes, whereas found between the location of large hailstreaks and
those in the daytime were 3 to 4 minutes. steep reflectivity gradients. Changnon and Huff (1961)
Results on point hailfall durations are extensive. An also studied the characteristics of 196 organized lines of
observer network in New England had an average echoes producing hail. These showed that these lines
hailfall duration of 3-4 min (Donaldson, 1959). were larger (200 km vs 142 km in length), moved faster
Averages elsewhere include 4.8 min in Arizona (Battan (34 vs 24 kt), lasted longer (4 vs 2 h), and rotated
and Wilson, 1969), 3.2 min in Illinois (Changnon, more (5 vs 3° h- 1 ) than did non-severe weather lines of
1970b), 8 min in South Dakota (Gringorten, 1971), 10 echoes. Areas of damage along the lines tended to occur
min in Alberta (Paul, 1968), 5 min in Denver (Beckwith, where and when the line exhibited sudden increases in
1960), 10-15 min in northeast Colorado (Schleusener et speed, size, and/or rotation, or where cells in the line
al., 1965). Thus, the longest durations also occur on the merged. Changnon and Towery (1970) also examined
lee of the Rockies where stone sizes typically are the individual echo characteristics of hailstorms and
largest in the continent. The result is reflected in the hail no-hail storms. Comparable hail-echo studies were
intensity pattern (Fig. 4). conducted using New England data (Chemla, 1960).
Similar echo-hailstorm studies have been conducted in
c. Hail and other conditions Colorado and these show a wide variety of hailstorm
motions (Schleusener, 1962; Schickedanz and Chag-
Relationships between hail and thunderstorms were non, 1970b; Mueller and Morgan, 1974).
discussed in the regional scale section. Rain with hail The crop loss with hail in mesoscale areas has been
was also treated there, but basically, on a statewide or investigated in Alberta (Summers and Renick; 1973)
severe storm basis. However, quite detailed informa- and in Illinois (Changnon, 1966e; 1969a). The distribu-
tion on rain with hail is available for Illinois (Changnon, tion of daily and annual area losses is highly skewed
1970b; Changnon and Towery, 1973). Results showed with a few high losses and many low losses. Figure 16
that rainfall amounts in hailstreaks, on the average, was reveals the varying probabilities for the frequency of
7 mm (average rate was 15 mm h- 1), but it was generally summer hail days in two small sized areas in Illinois.
less than the heaviest rainfall in the cell producing the There is an 80% change for 3 or fewer hail days in 2590
streak. Crop-season rainfall occurring in the 5000 km 2 km2 and 5 or fewer days in a 7770 km2 area. This
network when hail periods occurred was 47% of the research was conducted to estimate the proper amount
STANLEY A. CHANGNON, JR. 125

of insurance coverage in a region to minimize catas- synoptic factors to better understand the phenomenon
trophic losses to a single insurance firm. Similar studieson this scale.
were done for northeastern Colorado (Schickedanz and A third recommendation for study and action
Changnon, 1970a). concerns economics-property-hail losses and sec-
The relation of small area orography to the area's hailondary losses. A better data base is needed, and to meet
frequency has not been investigated extensively. Crow this need, special damage site studies should be pursued
(1969) suggests that surface roughness in Colorado and insurance companies should be encouraged to keep
leads to hail increases. The localized nature of certain separate records for hail loss to property.
frequency maxima on the average hail-day patterns A fourth recommendation concerns additional data
(Fig. 1) of midwestern states certainly suggests that the National Weather Service could gather on a
occasional local effects on the incidence of hail. continental scale. First, the installation and routine
However, the general infrequency of hail in such areas operation of hailpads at all first-order stations (and
makes it almost impossible to separate small-scale select cooperative substations where observers are
orographic effects on hail from those due to macroscale interested) would greatly enhance information, in just a
factors. few years, about hailstone sizes and frequencies. If the
current hail recording devices developed by the Illinois
7. Summary and recommendations State Water Survey and NHRE were also widely used,
a more comprehensive national data base would be
The review of findings about surface hail climatology developed. The Weather Service could also encourage
of North America clearly demonstrates the extreme all observers to record hail including its time, sizes of
variability in all scales of hail whether one deals with stones, and other easy-to-measure characteristics.
point or continental values or with 1-minute or 50-year Finally National Weather Services are strongly encour-
values. The principal hail area of North America exists aged to make an effort to accumulate more accurate
along and to lee of the eastern Rocky Mountains and estimates of hail loss data. Current approximations of
from New Mexico to Alberta. This area averages more loss are of little value.
hail days, more hailstorms, more and bigger hailstones, Certain recommendations concern mesoscale hail
and thus a greater hail intensity than any other area in research. A thorough climatic analysis ofthe 15+ years
the continent. Hail, as a problem, also extends into the of hail data in northeastern Colorado seems obvious. A
northwest (specialty crops) and eastward into the network type study of hail in the high loss eastern
midwestern grain belt and on to the East Coast (again seaboard tobacco areas appears highly desirable. The
due to specialty crops). Primary maxima in the hail Alberta results, coupled with the scattered results from
pattern in the Midwest are found where hail-producing Colorado and the Dakotas, represent the hail climatol-
macroscale weather conditions are most prevalent or ogy of the High Plains moderately well. The Illinois
where the Great Lakes affect and induce hailstorm results are representative of hail in the Midwest.
development. A seventh recommendation relates to a need to define
Hail climatic publications available for other conti- better the relationships between hail and rain charac-
nents were not reviewed herein, but knowledge of teristics, hail and tornadoes, and hail and winds. Such
them, in light of the results here, reveals that the hail information has considerable application to the insur-
climate of North America is much better defined than ance industry and to suppression endeavors.
that elsewhere. In particular, the climatology of hail in Finally, a general need is for a global hail climatology.
the United States is more thoroughly defined than that Sufficient historical data are available to make such a
for any other nation. study feasible. Its value to a better understanding of
The regional and small scale climatologies in Illinois global weather is great.
and Alberta are extremely detailed and are unexcelled
anywhere else in the world. The hail information for Acknowledgments. This work was largely accom-
northeast Colorado could be comparable but much of plished under the NSF/RANN Program with sup-
the data collected there has never been summarized and port from grant ERP75 09980. This grant concerned
published. a technology assessment of hail suppression in the
There are eight recommendations for future study. United States. The work was facilitated by an extensive
First, the extensive hail-day climatology done by Stout hail library developed under another NSF/RANN
and Changnon ( 1968) for 17 states and Alberta (Wojtiw, grant, AEN73 07770, also performed as part of the
1975) needs to be extended to all of the North American RANN Weather Modification Program. The long-term
continent. Second, national scale studies need to be research support of the State of Illinois and the
made of individual hailstorm days including their Crop-Hail Insurance Actuarial Association in hail
geographical-temporal dimensions and their related studies also helped make this study possible. The
126
encouragement of William C. Ackermann, Chief of the
Illinois State Water Survey, is gratefully acknow-
ledged.
REFERENCES
Battan, L. J., and D. S. Wilson, 1969: Hail on a mountain in Arizona.
J. Appl. Meteor., 8, 592-595.
Beckwith, W. B., 1960: Analysis of hailstorms in the Denver
network. J. Meteor., 23, 348-353.
Boone, L. M., 1974: Estimating Crop Losses Due to Hail. Agr. Econ.
Rep. 267, U. S. Dept. of Agriculture, 40 pp.
Brown, P. S., 1963: Some Applications of Meteorology to Crop-Hail
Insurance Rating. CHIAA Report, Chicago, 113 pp.
- - , 1967: Crop-hail insurance. Annuals Soc. Chartered Property
and Casualty Underwriters, 233-277.
Browning, K., and B. Foote, 1975: Airflow and hail growth in
supercell storms and some implications for hail suppression.
NHRE Tech. Rep. 75/1, NCAR, 75 pp.
Buell, C. E., 1945: The occurrence of hail in thunderstorms. J.
Aeronaut. Meteor., 1, 120-128.
Burley, M. W., R. Pfleger, and J. Y. Wang, 1964: Hailstorms in
Wisconsin. Mon. Wea. Rev., 92, 121-127.
Changnon, S. A., 1957: Thunderstorm-precipitation relations in
Illinois. Rep. Invest. No. 34, Ill. State Water Survey, Urbana,
24 pp.
- - , 1960a: Relations in Illinois between annual hail loss cost
insurance data and climatological hail data. CHIAA Res. Rep. 3,
Chicago, 18 pp.
- - , 1960b: Severe summer hailstorms in Illinois during 1915-1950.
Trans. Ill. Acad. Sci., 53, 146-156.
- - , 1961a: Annual and seasonal average hail days distributions in
Illinois, Missouri, and Iowa. Appendix A, CHIAA Res. Rep. 11,
Chicago, 8 pp.
- - , 1962a: Areal frequencies of hail and thunderstorm days in
Illinois. Mon. Wea. Rev., 90, 519-524.
- - , 1962b: Regional characteristics of severe summer hailstorms in
Illinois, CHIAA Res. Rep. 14, Chicago, 19 pp.
- - , 1962c: Singularities in severe weather events in Illinois. CHIAA
Res. Rep. 13, Chicago, 19 pp.
- - , 1962d: Hailstorms on May 17, 1962. Appendix A, CHIAA Res
Rep. 15, Chicago, 10-15.
- - , 1963a: Status of research findings from crop-hail insurance
investigations. Appendix, CHIAA Res. Rep. 20, Chicago,
26-31.
- - , 1963b: Monthly and semi-monthly distributions of hail days in
Illinois. CHIAA Res. Rep. 17, Chicago, 21 pp.
- - , 1964: Surface features of two intersecting hailstorms. N ubi/a, 6,
74-86.
- - , 1965: Summary of 1964 research on hail in Illinois. CHIAA Res.
Rep. 23, Chicago, 36 pp.
- - , 1966a: Effect of Lake Michigan on severe weather. Great Lakes
Res. Div., Pub!. 15, 220-234.
- - , 1966b: Investigations of hail damages to standing crops in
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PART 1: HAIL PHYSICS
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127
Frisby, E. M., 1963: Hailstorms of the upper Great Plains of the
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128
of high plains hailstorm formation. Proc. 5th Con[ Severe Local
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PART 1: HAIL PHYSICS
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 Response to
"The Climatology of Hail in North America"
GuY G. GoYER
Atmospheric Sciences Division Alberta Research, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada

1. Introduction Admirat (1971, 1972, 1973) who studied the distribu-

tions of the concentrations and diameters of hailstones
The preceding review of current knowledge on the
in 14 hailswaths on the plains of Languedoc near
climatology and on the spatial distribution of hail from
Montpellier in southern France. In addition, the
the macro to the micro scale is indeed very timely and
hailswaths produced by six hailstorms on the National
comprehensive. All aspects of hail as a climatological
Hail Research Experiment precipitation network were
phenomenon in the United States and Canada have
analyzed by Goyer (1974) and revealed the presence of
been reviewed and discussed. Gaps in our current
hail cores. "Hail cores" were defined by Admirat
knowledge in these areas have been well identified and
(1973) as areas within hailswaths where the maximum
appropriate steps to fill these gaps have been reco~­
hailstone diameter and the maximum hailstone con-
mended. Consequently, there is little to add to this
centration coincide.
review of hail climatology in North America.
The hail cores were identified from hailpad data in both
However, similar studies carried out over many
locations although the hailpads used were substantially
years in South Africa by A. E. Carte and his group
different. In Colorado, the hail pads used were similar to
should be mentioned. Recently, a sample of over 10,000
those originally described by Schleusener and Jenni~gs
hail reports submitted by a large group (800) of
(1960), and consisted of a styrofoam pad covered with
volunteer observers between 1962 and 1972 was
thin aluminum foil. In Languedoc, the foil was replaced
analyzed to thoroughly document the climatology of
by a much thicker sheet of soft aluminum. However,
hailfalls and the morphology of hailstones in an area of
both types provide, after calibration, a fairly accurate
2800 km 2 around Pretoria. The effects of network
measure of the concentration and of the diameters of
density on the reporting efficiency is analyzed. The
the hailstones denting the pads.
urban, orographic and seasonal effects on hail fre-
Hailstone diameters and concentrations define the
quency, hail areas and hail characteristics are dis-
hail cores. Contour maps of the maximum hailstone
cussed. The results have been summarized by Held
diameter (greater than 5 mm) and of the total
(1973, 1974).
concentration of hailstones almost match. Table 1 lists
Finally, for the sake of completeness, recent results
the data and figure 1 shows the contour maps of number
in the study of the fine scale characteristics of
concentration N, and maximum diameter D of
hailswaths, revealed by hailpad data and by airborne
hailstones and of total mass M and kinetic energy E of
observations of hailfalls should be discussed. The
the hailfall measured on each hailpad in the storm of 19
implications of the observed fine scale structure of
June 1972, observed in the Languedoc network.
hailswaths with respect to hailstone growth mechanisms
These maps clearly show that the three stations N44,
within hailstorms merits further study and discussion.

2. Fine-scale structure of hailswaths TABLE 1. Hailstone concentration (number per m2) in each diameter
category in hailcore of 19 June 1972 in Languedoc.
As discussed in the preceding paper, Douglas (1965)
and Pell (1971) in Alberta and Changnon et al. (1967) in Hailstone diameter (mm)
Illinois discovered and documented the hailstreaks Stations 5-16 5-7 7-9 9-11 11-13 13-16
within the boundaries of much more extensive
P44 4170 2210 1510 340 100 10
hailswaths. Changnon postulated that hailstreaks are N44 4120 2320 1300 420 80
associated with the surface outlines of single volumes of 043 3920 2040 1280 500 100
hail produced in storms, and considered them to be the M43 2580 1880 620 80
045 1460 1160 300
surface representations of hailshafts. They were K39 560 480 80
originally identified by maxima of hailstone concentra- Q43 540 420 60 60
N42 550 400 140 10
tions and/or maxima of crop damage within much larger L40 300 240 40 20
hailswaths. L42 280 240 40
Since 1971, the variability ofhailswaths as revealed K43 240 230 10
M41 190 130 60
by the hailstreaks has been further documented by

129
130 PART I: HAIL PHYSICS

38 40 42 44 46 38 40 42 44 46
J.: .l J.

. .
J
,- ... ,
K
15,0 ... ""2!0',
\ ... 0 " I
0
\' 300 ... _ ...280 I
' tO

Q\'
' ' ', 190 ,'25s<1· ~ ...
M 0 • ! • "'·,~,o
... 550 r120 ...... ,

.
N~

.
0 ' , •:
' '3920 460
0 0 0 ' ' • •• \
'
d\
\ I
180 ,' l
p -4P 0 \ ', / ~
a 0 0
\ 54'0
\ ...............,' ''
R '' 1540

• • • • • • • 1000 Hailstones m-2 ·• · • • • • • d4 as dmax

--4000 - - - d6
ISO-NUMBER ISO-MAXIMUM DIAMETER

..- ...... '

.•
... -... -...
,1. J. J.
,
~ ~

,' 2o... , : 3,7 ......

•
I 80 ," 0,4 \
K 1\ • ',p_," • ~ 0 \ ' ....~,." I 0

L -4P '' 70
•
40
•
1
YJ '' 5,5 2,1
•
I
lo
'' .···sao .. ' ' ' ... 2,4
\

·;
,.4,0,, ' ,
M 0 ''
''
40
• 1: • ···'.. .,'~:0 0 ''
'
• 7,75'
• • ', ' 0
'
169,5,' '
0 '

',',&..is., ' ' .:: 193,6

N-4P 0 ' ', ·.•
:,120 /1730 '·',
... \ /. \ ',
13,4
0 0 0
' \ 1880 23d
0 0 ''
. • ••.
' ,.'
p
.
o\ ~
\ \
.
1630
•
!
', ~ 0 o,', ... ', I

....
0

,·...
I'
\13,0
a 0 0
\ ~160 \
' 0 0 ''
' .
\
\
\
650 66
R '
. . . .. . . . . 100gm m- 2 .............. 10 j m-2
1000 I I 100 ''
ISO-WEIGHT ISO-KINETIC ENERGY

FIG. I. Contour maps of hailstone and hailfall parameters describing typical hailcore of 19 June 1972 in
Languedoc. (From Admirat, 1973.)

043 and P44, where the hailstone number concentra- plotted along the direction of motion ofthe storm. Here
tions are near 4000 m- 2 , define a geographic area where again, Dmax and E are closely related to N. Such
the maximum hailstone diameters are also the greatest hailcores were found, with varying degrees of clarity, in
(> 15 mm). As a result, the mass(> 1000 g m- 2 ) and the six Colorado hailswaths in 1972.
kinetic energy (100 J m- 2 ) of the hailfall measured on A hailcore is then an area in a hailswath where all
each hail pad in this area are also the largest. Finally, hailfall parameters reach a maximum value. Admirat
the longest hailfall duration, 15 minutes, is also ob- (1973) defines it, more objectively, as an area where the
served in this area. concentration of hailstones is greater than 1000/m2 and
Hailcores become obvious when these parameters comprises at least three diameter categories (i.e. 5-7,
are plotted as a function of distance along the hailswath 7-9, 9-11 mm). Changnon (1970) defined hailstreaks as
in the direction of motion of the storm. Fig. 2 is such a "areas of hail continuous in space with temporal
plot from station K39 to R46. In most cases, peaks of coherence considered as an entity of hail generated
each hailfall parameter coincide at a sampling point on within a thunderstorm. The average hailstreak, repre-
the ground. This correlaticn between N and Dmax was sents a fast moving, short-lived and relatively small
discovered by Admirat and observed in 14 hailswaths phenomenon." The hailcore is defined on the basis of
studied between 1971 and 1973 in the Languedoc physical parameters of the hailstones and presumably
network. corresponds to some portion of the hailstreak as defined
Fig. 3 shows the hailswath of the Colorado storm of7 by Changnon. Clearly it is characterized by spatial and
July 1972, displaying two maxima in the concentration temporal coherence, but in addition by maximum
of hailstones. The hailcores are clearly demonstrated values of hailstone parameters.
by the plot of Fig. 4 where the hailfall parameters are When the hailswath is of sufficient length (>20 km) as
GUY G. GOYER 131

160
WR m · ' (x10gm)
WH m·'(oml
3000 120

2000 80

1000 40

N m·' Dmu (mm )

5000 23-27

4000 18- 22

3000 13-17
FIG. 3. Contour map of hailstone concentrations in hail swath of 7
2000 8-12
July 1972 in Colorado.
1000 s- 7

in Fig. 3, in some cases, several hailcores can often be

K39 l 40 M41 N42 043 PH Q4S R46
STATIONS identified along its length. Their separation in space
~<-2,8 km-t varies between 1.0 and 8. 7 kilometers and in time (in the
FIG. 2. Hailstone and hailfall parameters plotted along the hailswath few cases where the time of onset of hail and thus the
of 19 June 1972 in Languedoc. (From Admirat, 1973.) hailshaft speed is known) between 17.6 and 19.5

N
350
Nlftt
D111 in
300
E ft-lb/ft 1
E o,.
250
1.2
20.0 1.1

200 18.0 1.0

0.9
14.0 0.8
150
12.0 0.7
/ 0.6

100 8.0 0.5

6.0 0.4
4.0 0.3
2.0 0.2
0.0 0 .1

o.o 4.7 6.8 7.9 9.5 10.5 11.6 15.3 16.6 17.6 20.4 23.2 25.8 ~7 28.3 31.6

KM
FIG. 4. Hailstone and hailfallparameters plotted along the southern hailswath of7 July 1972 in Colorado.
132 PART I: HAIL PHYSICS

minutes. These values are a reasonable estimate of the The horizontal dimensions of FSRP' s are comparable
cycle length and time in a pulsating hailfall mechanism. to those ofhailstreaks observed on the ground. Finally,
A high concentration of hailstones can, however, be the cumulative estimates of hail mass and kinetic
produced by several consecutive hailfalls at a point on energy obtained by Eccles (1976) from dual wavelength
the ground. The Colorado data reveal, in a few cases, radar measurements provide additional evidence for
three or four hailfalls separated by one to fourteen the existence of multiple, high intensity hail shafts
minutes. In such cases, the hailcore produced by a within a hailstorm. The horizontal extents of the
given cell may be masked by the addition of the hailfalls maxima of hailstone diameter and of hail depth, shown
produced by several successive cells producing hail at in Eccles' contour maps are remarkably similar to those
the same location on the ground. Correlation with radar of FSRP's and of hailstreaks.
data is essential in rejecting these cases, in hailcore
studies. 4. Conclusions
These localized large accumulations of hail, within
the more extensive hailswath, have also been observed The recent studies of the fine scale structure of
in airborne mapping of hailswaths with a fixed-beam hailswaths have greatly contributed to the realization
infrared radiometer (Goyer and Roads, 1971; Roads, that accurate hailfall measurements require dense and
1973) and with both fixed-beam and scanning infrared extensive networks. They suggest that remote sensing
radiometers (Markey and Goyer, 1975). In spite of the by such methods as dual wavelength or polarization
uncertainties associated with such methods, the great radars will eventually be more accurate and more
variability of hailfall intensity in hail swaths, produced
economical for hailfall measurements over large areas.
by hailstreaks and hailcores, becomes very apparent However, firm correlations between measurements by
when ground temperatures are mapped immediately radars and by ground sensors have not yet solidly
after the hailfall. Finally Changnon and Barron (1971), established the remote sensing methods. Additional
have successfully defined hailstreaks through the support and effort in this area of research are needed,
quantification of crop hail losses by infrared aerial especially to develop additional tools for the evaluation
photography. of hail suppression experiments.
The physical descriptions of the hailcores presented Finally, such studies on the fine scale structure of
above appear approximately identical in Languedoc hailswaths have reached the point where they can
and Colorado. In both cases, zones of large accumula- greatly contribute to the further understanding of
tion of hail on the ground have been observed that hailstone growth mechanisms in hailstorms. This recent
strongly suggest a relationship between the fine scale evidence strongly suggests that the hailstone formation
patterns of single or dual wavelength radar echoes, the mechanism is similar, if not identical, in multicell and
fine structure of the hailfall and the dynamics of hail supercell storms and cannot be considered as a steady
formation in the hailstorm. state phenomenon (Barge and Bergwall, 1975). These
observations imply a mixed hailstone growth
3. The significance of hailcores mechanism; the fall of small concentrations of
The existence, distribution and characteristics of hailstones of small sizes, defining the widespread
hailstreaks and hailcores have important implications hailswath, is quasi-steady state; the fall of high
concerning the mechanism of hailstone formation and concentrations (10 to 100 times greater) of larger
growth in the hailstorm. When combined with new hailstones, constituting the hailstreaks and hailcores,
observations of the fine scale structure of radar echoes results from a fine scale, pulsating mechanism. The
and of hail distributions as revealed by dual wavelength supercell storm conceptualized by Browning (1976) as a
radar, the fine scale structure of hail on the surface true steady-state storm is not expected to be a realistic
strongly suggests a pulsating hail formation mechanism concept except in very rare instances. Much more work
superimposed on a weaker quasi-steady hail formation will be necessary to substantiate the interpretation of
mechanism, as first proposed by Douglas (1965). these recent findings proposed in this paper. The
Changnon (1970) identified and documented hail- correlation of the fine scale structures of radar echoes
streaks in both multicell and supercell storms. Barge and of hail on the ground is a first step towards that
and Bergwall (1976) have identified and documented objective. Similarly, the study of the characteristics of
fine scale reflectivity patterns (FSRP), also in both the hailfall within dual wavelength radar contours is
storm types, and present evidence consistent with necessary. Both these areas appear to be promising
the suggestion that the FSRP's are manifestations areas of research to elucidate hailfall mechanisms as
of hail formation, growth and fall towards the ground. well as to provide hail suppression evaluation tools.
GUY G. GOYER
REFERENCES
Admirat, P., 1971: Parametres physique des precipitations orageuses
dans le Bassin Rhodanien. G.I.E.F.A. Rapp. Tech. No. 12, 75
pp.
- - , 1972: Structure fine des Chutes de Grete Naturelle. G.I.E.F.A.
Rap. Tech. No. 14, 83 pp.
- - , 1973: Natural hailcores and their ability to estimate the
efficiency of hail prevention systems. Proc. WMO!IAMAP Sci.
Conf Weather Modification, Tashkent.
Barge, B. L., and F. Bergwall, 1975: Hail growth process suggested
by polarization diversity radar data. Alberta Research, Atmos.
Sci. Div., Prog. Rep. 1974-75, 26-52.
Barge, B. L., and F. Bergwall, 1976: Fine-scale structure of
convective storms associated with hail production. Proc. WMO
Int. Conf Weather Modification, Boulder, 341-348.
Browning, K., 1977: The structure and mechanisms of hailstorms.
Meteor. Monogr., No. 38 1-43.
Changnon, S. A., 1968: Evaluation of data to verify hail modification
efforts. Proc. 1st Nat. Conf Weather Modification, Albany,
Amer. Meteor. Soc. 513-521.
- - , 1970: Hailstreaks. J. Atmos. Sci., 27, 109-125.
--,H. Danford and P. T. Schickedanz, 1967: Surface hail patterns
in Illinois and South Dakota. Proc. 5th Conf Severe Local
Storms, Amer. Meteor. Soc. 325-335.
--,and G. E. Stout, 1969: A mesoscale analysis of hail and heavy
rain on 15 May, 1968. Preprints 6th Conf Severe Local Storms,
Chicago, Amer. Meteor. Soc. 303-309.
133
--,and N. A. Barron, 1971: Quantification of crop hail losses by
aerial photography. J. Appl. Meteor., 10, 86-96.
Douglas, R. H., 1965: Intermittency in western Canadian hailfalls.
Proc. Int. Conf Cloud Physics, Tokyo, 291-295.
Eccles, P. J., 1976: Cumulative estimates of hail mass and kinetic
energy from dual wavelength measurements. Proc. WMO. Int.
Conf Weather Modification, Boulder, 273-280.
Goyer, G. G., and J. 0. Roads, 1971: The mapping ofhailswath by
airborne infrared radiometry. Proc. Int. Conf Weather Mod-
ification. Canberra, Australia, Amer. Meteor. Soc. 231-236.
Also Preprints 7th Conf Severe Local Storms, Kansas City,
Amer. Meteor. Soc. 152-157.
Goyer, G. G., 1974: Private communications.
Held, G., 1973: Ten years of hail observations in the Pretoria-
Witwatersrand Area. J. Rech. Atmos., Vol. 6, 185-197.
- - , 1974: Hail frequency in the Pretoria-Witwatersrand area during
1962 to 1972. Pure Appl. Geophys., 112, 765-776.
Markey, K. L., and G. G. Goyer, 1975: Airborne infrared radiometry
and hailswaths. J. Appl. Meteor., 14, 1366-1375.
Pell, J., 1971: Variations with time of six Alberta hail parameters.
Preprints 7th. Conf Severe Local Storms, Amer. Meteor. Soc.,
226-233.
Roads, J. 0., 1973: A study of hailswaths by means of airborne
infrared radiometry. J. Appl. Meteor., 12, 855-862.
Schleusener, R. A., and P. C. Jennings, 1960: An energy method for
relative estimates of hail intensity. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 41,
372-376.
 Inherent Difficulties in Hail Probability Prediction

EDWIN F. DANIELSEN 1

National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

ABSTRACT

The difficulties in hail prediction are discussed with reference to a set of conditions thought to be necessary
and sufficient for the production of large hail. These conditions are abstracted from diagnostic studies with
a numerical cloud model which includes hydrometeor growth by vapor deposition and stochastic collection, hail
embryo formation by drop freezing, and hail embryo injection. The physical reasoning, including the major
assumptions and limitations of the early prediction methods and recent numerical models are reviewed and the
necessity for more explicit condensation and ice forming nuclei measurements is discussed.

1. Introduction 2. Some necessary and sufficient conditions

In this review article I have used "hail probability
prediction'' rather than ''hail prediction'' to emphasize
the current difficulties in prediction. Although we can
identify and, with reasonable accuracy, predict the
conditions favorable for hail embryo formation and for
hail growth, i.e., a set of necessary conditions, we
cannot identify and predict the critical set or sets of
sufficient conditions.
We are attempting to understand a potentially
unstable mixed-phase system which has many degrees
of freedom. Because diabatic heating and cooling,
caused by phase changes of water, provide the major
energy source to drive the system, the cloud micro-
physical processes must play a crucial role both in
developing the hail growth potentials and in triggering
their conversions. In support of this view, several
examples of positive feedbacks produced by phase
changes will be discussed.
These examples are based on numerical solutions
of the hydrodynamic equations in a time-dependent
cumulonimbus cloud model which permits some but
not all of the possible degrees of freedom. This
complex model is still overly constrained, too simple
to be a hail prediction model. At best, it is a diagnostic
model which can serve as a useful tool to increase our
understanding of the complex hail processes.
Because we are so far removed from a capability
to predict hail- the number and density of stones as
a function of size, which fall per unit area per unit
time through the hailfall's duration, and where and
when it will fall-I will concentrate on the inherent
difficulties of hail prediction. The discussion should
clarify the general limitations of past and current
prediction methods, so their review will be brief.
1 Now associated with the Air Resources Center, Oregon State
University, Corvallis.
135
We are concerned with predicting the size and
number distribution of hailstones larger than the largest
raindrop, radius r = 2.5 mm. Hail smaller than this
limit behaves like rain and most of it melts to become
rain as it falls toward the ground. Hailstones larger
than a raindrop have terminal speeds ranging from 12
to 50 m s- 1 • Updraft speeds of comparable magnitude
are necessary, therefore, to support the stone during
its growth. Vertical velocities of this magnitude are
1()2 to 1()3 times as large as those associated with
large-scale wave cyclones and occur only in major
cumulonimbus clouds. In effect, they are statistically
rare.
Strong positive buoyancy forces are required to
generate such large vertical velocities against several
opposing forces, so the atmosphere must be strongly,
convectively unstable; also, there must be a mesoscale
low-level convergence to trigger the instability. Fre-
quently both of these conditions are controlled by large-
scale wave cyclones which generate and release
convective instability in converging, shearing flows,
so an experienced forecaster or a high-resolution
numerical prediction model can predict the most
probable region and time for the development of large
cumulonimbus clouds. When these conditions are con-
trolled by the mesoscale, prediction degenerates due
to the paucity of measurements. However, not all
large cumulonimbus clouds produce hail. We have
identified a necessary but not sufficient condition,
convective instability capable of generating vertical
velocities > 12 m s- 1 •
Large hail requires an adequate supply of super-
cooled water to grow the stones from millimeter-sized
embryos to centimeter-sized hail in the relatively
short time (15-20 min) that they remain in the updraft-
growth zone. To be compatible with the previous
condition of large convective instability, this water
136
sec- 1 r--~------------
100 \ ffi-S'f
\ 3) Contact-when a supercooled drop captures or
\ makes contact with a nucleant and the ice phase
\ DEPOSITION
\ is initiated at the drop's surface.
la+--~r------------~
\ For hail formation and growth, immersion and contact
---
\ freezing are probably more important than deposition
\ COALESCENCE
\ freezing. Later, we will discuss the relative importance
........ _ _ _
l\
...........
__:
'7•.,_,_ _
10... - -_____,\,____ ~~,----I
......,.
10"+-----~~·-~\,_~E~V~A~P~O~R~AT~I~O~N--1
\ ".-·-·-·-·-·. . ·-·-. .
I
~
II 11
\ ,/
~--,-10 1..---.--.-
2.5 5
i---,- ,-- -.- ' -
25 50 100 250 500 1000 2500 5000
RADIUS jJm
FIG. 1. Typical percentage mass growth rates in cloud model with
vapor deposition and stochastic coalescence. Evaporation is
caused by excess temperature of growing hail.
must have its vapor source in the low-level air, and
enter the cloud in the updraft. Empirical studies of
hail producing storms indicate that the specific
humidity in the updraft at cloud base must exceed
about 6 g kg- 1 . This is not an unreasonably large
value for air modified while flowing over warm oceans
or warm, moist land. In fact, values 2-3 times as
large are observed. But, again, large moisture values
can produce large cumulonimbus without producing
large hail. We have identified a second necessary,
but not sufficient, condition.
These two conditions, a large vertical velocity and
an adequate amount of supercooled water, are implicit
in a thermal and moisture stratification which is
strongly, convectively unstable, but generally neither
condition can be realized without the presence of
condensation nuclei. Heat released in the phase change
of water supplies the positive buoyancy force, ac-
celerating the air and leading to cooling by expansion
which, in turn, makes more vapor available for
condensation. This vapor is shared, so the number of
cloud droplets that form per unit volume and their
subsequent growth by vapor deposition depends on the
number density of activated condensation nuclei.
Finally, to initiate the ice phase and to form hail
embryos requires ice forming nuclei. Three types of
heterogeneous nucleation are possible:
1) Deposition-when the solid phase forms directly
from vapor.
2) Immersion-when vapor first condenses on a
nucleant to form a drop and then, later, when the
PART I: HAIL PHYSICS
drop is supercooled the ice phase is initiated some-
where within the drop.
-..,
of immersion and contact freezing in continental and
maritime air. For the present, we will simply identify
condensation and freezing nuclei as necessary for hail
formation and growth.
A vertical shear of the horizontal wind, microscale
'·-.....
~
turbulence and cloud electrification are additional
candidates. Vertical shear tilts the updraft and dis-
places the precipitation-induced downdraft. Such a
horizontal displacement is necessary for the formation
of a thermally direct circulation with positive buoyant
forcing in the updraft and negative forcing in the down-
draft. This vorticity doublet sustains the lifetime of the
cumulonimbus beyond the lifetime of a single cell, 30
to 40 min. But the Alberta studies (Renick, 1971)
and others indicate that hail can form in and fall from
a single cell. Therefore, a vertical shear appears to be
a necessary condition for a long-lived cumulonimbus,
which is either composed of many cells, or of cells
that have effectively coalesced to form a so-called
'' supercell,'' but it is not a necessary condition for hail.
Even though it does not appear to be a necessary
condition, it may increase the probability of hail by
increasing the possibilities for large hail growth.
Browning and Foote (1976), for example, have de-
veloped a conceptual model of hail growth in which
hail embryos forming outside the main updraft are
transported by a shear-induced vortex circulation and
sedimentation into the main updraft where conditions
are favorable for rapid growth. In effect, the hail
embryos are injected into a favorable environment.
The effects of such injections on hail growth in a
numerical model will be discussed later.
Recent numerical and theoretical studies by de
Almeida (1977) suggest that microscale turbulence can
significantly increase the collision efficiency for cloud
droplets with radii in the 10 to 20 11-m range. Collisions
in this range broaden the drop spectrum toward the
coalescence growth threshold. This threshold is
evident in Fig. 1 for r > 50 11-m, taken from diagnostic
studies with the numerical model for Danielsen,
Bleck and Morris (1972). This model includes Bleck's
(1970) fast approximation method of solving the
stochastic collection equation. Results plotted in Fig. 1
are for a non-turbulent collection kernel and include
the nonequilibrium solution of the thermodynamic
energy equation which predicts the temperature for

EDWIN F. DANIELSEN
hydrometeors (water and ice) in each size category.
In this example, the large hailstones are significantly
warmer than their in-cloud environment (maximum
difference 16°C), accounting for the mass loss by
evaporation for r > 150 fLm.
If de Almeida's results were incorporated into the
model (this work is in progress) the coalescence
curve would be shifted toward smaller radii for
r < 100 J.tm. The physical significance of this shift is
to increase the probability for large drop formation and
to decrease the time when these drops will form after
the ascending air crosses the condensation level. Both
changes tend to increase the probability of hail embryo
formation by drop freezing (contact nucleation), and
frozen drop embryos do predominate in very large
hailstones. However, since microscale turbulence is
generated by mesoscale turbulence and the latter is
a maximum in a large cumulonimbus, it seems highly
probable that microscale turbulence will necessarily
be at an intense level in the cloud.
The effects of electric forces acting on charged
particles as well as the charging mechanisms in cumulo-
nimbus clouds is now a subject of considerable
interest and research. Although it may prove to be
important in modulating the hydrometeor growth rates,
it seems unlikely that electric forces are necessary for
hail growth.
In the above discussion we have identified four
necessary conditions and have specified lower limits for
two, i.e., the vertical speeds must exceed 12m s- 1 and
the specific humidity in the main updraft must exceed
6 g kg- 1 • At present, we cannot specify limits for the
condensation and freezing nuclei, other than to imply
that some critical range in number and nucleating
efficiencies must exist. To determine these critical
ranges will require further study.
For example, hailstone sections reveal two distinct
types of embryos. One is a graupel particle, the other
a frozen drop (Knight and Knight, 1970). The former
implies that the ice phase formed first (followed by
rapid growth by vapor deposition) before stochastic
collection of the small drops occurred; the latter
implies that stochastic growth occurred well before
freezing. It is conceivable, and currently being studied
by several groups, that immersion nucleation pre-
dominates in graupel formation, while contact nuclea-
tion predominates for frozen drops. Since soil-
generated aerosols are the major natural ice nucleants,
despite whether the clay itself or the organic matter
attached to and imbedded in the clay is the actual
nucleant (Schnell and Vali, 1973), we might expect
graupel formation to be more probable in clouds that
form in continental air, and frozen drop embryos to be
more probable when the clouds form in maritime air,
slightly modified by transit over a continent. Whether
137
this expectation is or is not significant, we must study
soil-generated aerosols to determine both their immer-
sion and contact freezing potentials as a function of
particle size and subfreezing temperatures.
Also, we need new instruments for measuring the
number densities in each size and temperature range.
Furthermore, we must make measurements not only
in the main updraft air, but in the cloud's environ-
mental air because a major cloud entrains from the
environment a mass roughly comparable to that which
enters from the base. Thus, when the convective
instability is generated by a deep surface boundary
layer (dust laden air of continental origin) the ice
nucleants could enter the cloud mainly at its sides by
entrainment. Danielsen 2 has shown that this type of
convective instability generation, produced by large-
scale cyclogenesis, is responsible for the major,
organized outbreaks of severe storms, including
hailfalls and tornados, in the midwestern United
States.
One can extend the list of candidates by focusing
on specific details of the aerosol-hydrometeor micro-
physical processes and/or details of the macro-, meso-
and microscale dynamical processes, but such an ex-
tension would be more distracting than revealing. We
have identified four quantities and two limiting con-
ditions as necessary for hail embryo production and
hail growth. To determine sufficient conditions it may
only be necessary to specify the number densities and
ice nucleating efficiencies of the nuclei.
Here the nuclei are stressed as the major source of
difficulty in hail prediction; others stress problems with
cloud dynamics. Advocates of that viewpoint empha-
size the importance of turbulence (vortex-vortex
interaction) and relegate the microphysics to a minor
role, adequately described by rather simple parame-
terization. However, in a cumulonimbus cloud,
vorticity is not just amplified and reoriented, there are
also major vorticity generation phenomena due to
spatial gradients of diabatic heating and cooling, and
gradients of hydrometeor mass loading (the integrated
drag force of the size-varying hydrometeors). These
buoyant and friction forces affect and are affected
by the cloud microphysics. They make each storm
unique. When they are parameterized, the uniqueness
is lost.
3. Possible microphysical-dynamical feedbacks
It was mentioned earlier that the vertical velocities
in an intense cumulonimbus attain speeds comparable
to the horizontal velocities associated with the large-
scale weather systems. These large vertical velocities
2 Unpublished manuscript: "A conceptual theory of tornado-
genesis''.
138
are not generated by large dynamic pressure per-
turbations, rather the essentially undisturbed pressure
accelerates less dense air. First, the ascending air
is less dense because a unit volume contains more of
the lighter water molecules and less of the heavier
air molecules; second, when these water molecules
condense, the energy released pushes more of both
molecules out of the volume. The air becomes even
less dense and the accelerations increase. In effect, the
air rises like a buoyant balloon, expanding as it
ascends.
However, unlike a balloon, the expansive cooling
introduces a positive feedback. More vapor condenses,
increasing the buoyancy and the vertical acceleration.
Also, because the buoyant volume is localized, hori-
zontal vorticity is generated as the vertical velocity is
generated. In three dimensions the horizontal vorticity
vectors close to form a vortex ring around the buoyant
region. In any vertical plane intersecting this ring, the
vertical-horizontal circulations form a vortex doublet.
These circulations give the cumulus its characteristic
shape and the unstable roll-up at the cloud's boundary
is responsible for mixing with the cloud's environment.
The initial velocity is produced by the curl of
-aVp, i.e.,
-Va x Vp = Va' x ( -8p 0 /8z)k
= (g/a0 )Va' X k,
where the specific volume a = a 0 (z) + a' and the
pressurep = p 0 (z) + p' are expanded to include devia-
tions from a mean, hydrostatically balanced state and
k is a unit vertical vector. That this reduced term is
simply the curl of the buoyancy term in the vertical
equation of motion is evident from
dw a'g 8p'
- = - - ao- - xng + vV 2 w,
dt Oio az
where Xn is the mass mixing ratio of hydrometeors,
v is the eddy viscosity and a term involving products
of the deviations has been neglected. Thus, increasing
the buoyancy increases the vertical acceleration,
vertical velocity, horizontal vorticity and vortex-
induced mixing. The latter effect is parameterized by
the last term in (2) but is qualitatively consistent.
This term damps the system since V2w < 0.
The second term on the right-hand side of (2) also
tends to damp the maximum velocities. Although p'
does not appear explicitly in (1), since
V x Vp
,
= 0 and -8p' apo
~ -
az az
, first require a prediction of the vertical profiles of
its gradients do provide the accelerations that close
the circulation required by the continuity of mass.
They perform work, moving environmental air upward
PART I: HAIL PHYSICS
and away from the ascending cloud, and upward and
inward toward the buoyant region. Since -ap' /az must
be negative above the cloud and p' ~ 0 as z ~ oo, p'
must be positive and a maximum at cloud top. Its
horizontal gradient causes horizontal divergence in the
ascending cloud and, therefore -8p' /8z must change
sign, becoming positive in the upper part of the cloud.
Here it acts against the buoyant term, reducing the
maximum vertical velocity. To a reasonable approxima-
tion, Wmax is about a factor of 2 smaller than that
computed from the buoyancy term only.
To demonstrate that p' is only of the order of a milli-
bar we can note that a mean buoyancy of 10 em s- 2
produces a 60 m s- 1 vertical velocity in 10 min. A
pressure deviation of ± 1 mb separated by 8 km (a
reasonable distance) with a = 2 x 103 cm3 g- 1 yields
-5 em s-2 for the second term on the right-hand
side of (2). Thus p' << p 0 and can be neglected in
the buoyancy term but it must be included in (2) to
obtain proper magnitudes for Wmax·
The third term on the right-hand side of (2) is
either zero or negative. When hydrometeors grow and
accumulate in the updraft Xn can exceed 10 g kg-I,
therefore, the third term can negatively exceed -10
em s- 2 • This integrated drag force can dominate and
locally generate a downdraft. Compressive heating
(1)
then provides energy to melt hail and evaporate water,
making the first term negative, so another feedback
develops.
The simplicity of the third term can be misleading.
Although the integrated drag force is independent of
the size-number distribution of the hydrometeors
(under the assumption that terminal speeds apply) the
distribution is strongly dispersive in the vertical direc-
tion due to the large range in terminal speeds. There-
fore, to include this important degree of freedom,
(2) the hydrometeor distribution and its appropriate range
in terminal speeds must be included in a cumulonimbus
cloud model.
Now we are in a better position to understand the
limitations imposed by past and present hail prediction
models.
4. Limitations of prediction models
Since Humphreys (1928) first computed the vertical
velocity required to suspend a growing hailstone until
the recent development of numerical cloud models,
hail predictions have been based on very crude esti-
mates of updraft speeds to be expected in a cumulo-
nimbus. Using radiosonde observation, the methods
temperature and moisture. From these predicted pro-
files and appropriate graphs, an estimate of the
vertical velocity is obtained and then this velocity is
converted to a maximum hail size.
EDWIN F. DANIELSEN
A rather successful method of this type, a method
still used by forecasters today, was introduced by
Fawbush and Miller (1953). In the early 1950's they
selected 274 radiosonde observations that they con-
sidered representative of the atmosphere in which hail
of a known size (maximum reported size) formed.
Following Humphreys' reasoning, they integrated (2)
by neglecting all force terms but the buoyancy between
the level of free convection, LFC, and the level of the
-5°C isotherm. This integration yields
(3)
where H is the height interval of integration and
llT the mean buoyancy. Since t:..T = ooc at the LFC
and grows approximately linearly, one can replace
il.Tby f:..T _5oc/2. They also set wLFC = 0, so their
equation reduces to
w:_ 5oc = g t:..T _5ocH
~ proportional to maximum hail diameter. (4)
It predicts a maximum hail diameter based on two
predictors, f:..T_ 5oc and H. Using H as the ordinate,
f:..L 5oc as the abscissa and Humphreys' values for
terminal speeds, they constructed lines of constant
maximum hail diameter (a family of hyperbolas) which
is their hail prediction graph. After the values of
t:..T _5oc and H were determined for all 274 soundings
and the predicted were compared to the observed
diameters, the lines were adjusted. In particular,
Humphreys' computed terminal speeds were greatly
reduced for hail whose diameter exceeded 8 em.
I find this type of prediction method very appealing
because it is based on both theory and observations.
If a systematic error is made as a result of an error
in the theory, its effect can be reduced by the direct
comparison with empirical data.
Fawbush and Miller, in the same article, published
mean temperature and wet-bulb profiles computed
from all cases that produced 1.3, 2.5 and 10 em diameter
hailstones and those that produced tornados. The
striking similarity between the mean profiles for large
hail and tornados led them to conclude that large
convective instability was necessary for the production
of both large hail and tornados. Our first condition
agrees with this conclusion.
They also noted a dependence of the observed
hail size on the height above the terrain of the wet-
bulb freezing level (the intersection of the wet-bulb
profile and the ooc isotherm). Only small hail was
reported when the height was below 1.5 km and above
3.4 km, while the large hail cases were clustered
between 2.1 and 2. 7 km. In a more recent article,
Miller (1967) emphasizes the height of the wet-bulb
freezing level as a critical parameter for both large
hail and severe convective storms, but the physical
139
basis for its significance remains vague. In 1970,
Morgan published results of testing the wet-bulb zero
as a parameter for hail forecasting in the Po Valley,
Italy. He concludes that what skill it contributes is
due to its positive correlation with a more basic
parameter, the low-level available moisture. His con-
clusion is consistent with our second condition.
An attempt to refine the Fawbush and Miller method
was made by Foster and Bates (1956). On the basis
ofthe cold temperatures, often between -5 and -l5°C,
measured inside hailstones immediately after the
stones fall, and Meeker's (1951) hail model, which
indicated temperatures :;:;: l5°C in the hail formation
region, they chose to integrate the buoyancy from the
level of free convection to the level of the -10°C
temperature for the ascending parcel. Fawbush and
Miller used -5°C. They also assumed a linear increase
in buoyancy with height to estimate the mean buoyance
from the temperature difference at the -10°C level.
The success in predicting the correct class for hail < 1.9
and ~1.9 em increased only from 83% to 85%.
The methods discussed above are based only on
the vertical velocity computed from (2) where only the
first term on the RHS, the buoyancy term, is retained.
Obviously, this reduction can only yield a first
approximation to one necessary condition, the max-
imum vertical velocity. Therefore, these methods
cannot predict whether a given cumulonimbus will or
will not produce hail, nor can they predict the onset,
duration and size and number distribution of a hailfall.
As indicated in studies by Longley and Thompson
(1964), Kozub and Thompson (1965), Sly (1965) and
Towery and Changnon (1970), these are very difficult
problems. Many parameters, quantities and conditions
have been studied statistically in the hope of discover-
ing significant predictors for the occurrence and size
of hail, but little success has been achieved.
Certainly the current trend is to solve the complete
set of equations by numerical methods, using fast,
large capacity computers. During the past decade
substantial progress has been made from simple cloud
models (latent heat release but no hydrometeor growth)
to rain models (hydrometeor growth constrained to
follow specified distribution) to rain and hail models
(rain and hail growth constrained to follow separate
distributions).
The early models were steady-state and one-dimen-
sional, i.e., the dependent variables are area means
integrated over the horizontal dimensions of the cloud
and, therefore, there is only one remaining independent
variable, z the height. An example ofthis type of model
is that of Weinstein and Davis (1968) which used the
hydrometeor parameterization developed by Kessler
(1963).
During 1969 and 1970, Haagenson and Danielsen
140 PART 1: HAIL PHYSICS

(1972) modified and generalized the Weinstein-Davis was not obvious to us. Our predictions of hail remained
model as an aid to predicting hail for the Northeast subjective despite a substantial improvement in our
Colorado Hail Experiment, the predecessor of the ability to predict the time of formation, cloud base
National Hail Research Experiment. The updraft was and depth of major cumulonimbus clouds with the aid
initiated at the earth's surface, its radius became a of the model.
new, dependent variable; a gamma function whose
order could be specified replaced the zero-order 5. Conclusions drawn from more general model
Marshall-Palmer distribution; terminal speeds were
Recognizing the capabilities and limitations of the
generalized and their mean values computed; and radar
Haagenson-Danielsen steady-state model, I became
reflectivities were computed from Mie scattering
increasingly convinced that aerosols, especially the
theory.
soil aerosols, play a critical role in hail production.
Using a morning sounding, we ran 25 model
As a first step toward incorporating them into the
simulations corresponding to 5 different initial updraft
model, a time dependent model including stochastic
radii and 5 different adiabatic boundary layer depths.
growth was developed by Danielsen, Bleck and Morris
These two variables simulate the usual diurnal trend
(1972). This model uses Bleck's (1970) fast approxi-
in Colorado. Updrafts with large radii tend to correlate
mation method for solving the stochastic collection
with deep, late afternoon boundary layers, as simple
equation with 30 size categories for water and 40 for
scale theory would imply.
ice. Since the hydrometeor distributions evolve with
Referring back to (2), this model includes the buoy-
time, an important degree of freedom is introduced,
ancy and hydrometeor drag terms as a function of z ,
namely, the vertical dispersion caused by the range of
and a finite difference approximation to the area
terminal speeds. Also, the ice phase is introduced by
integrated Laplacian, which varies as Rc - l where Rc,
specifying drop freezing probabilities which vary with
the radius of the cloud, varies also with z. It does
size and temperature.
not explicitly include the pressure deviation (term 2)
Some results obtained with this model appear in the
but its dampening effect on the maximum updraft
published paper and will not be repeated here, but some
speed was simulated by increasing the value of v in
more recent results, applicable to Browning and
(2). The model is capable, therefore, of predicting Foote's conceptual model, will be presented in Figs.
reasonable vertical distributions of w and x.n, two of
2-5. Let us first review the limitations that remain in
the necessary conditions for hail prediction. If, in fact,
the model.
these were also sufficient conditions, there should be
a significant correlation between the predictions and 1) The cloud droplet distribution is specified, not
the observations of hail. If such a correlation exists, it computed from condensation nuclei, but we can study

0
w
1-
u
...,
w
~

CLOUD

min 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 0 2 4 6 8 10
FIG. 2. Height-time plots of radar reflectivity contours for 5 August 1970 storm with surface value of specific
humidity of 20 g kg-', drop freezing threshold of -20°C, and three types of hail embryos injected at positions
of dots. Initial cloud droplet distribution 1.
EDWIN F. DANIELSEN 141

km km
E 20 20
E
"''E,
I<")
19 E 19 E
d "''E g
on N 18 18 "'Er<>E
I

Qd 17 "'o
-0
th 17 Ql
-N
0 16 0 16
w w 0
....u 15 .... 15 ....w
u u
...,
w 14 w
..., 14 w
...,
?;
13 !?;
13 ?;

12 12
II II
10 10
9 9
8 8
7 7
6 6
5 5
4 4
3 3
2 2
"lin 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 0 2 4 6 8 10
FIG. 3. As in Fig. 2, but for initial cloud droplet distribution 4.

the affects of different distributions by varying a
parameter and recomputing.
2) Ice nucleation itself is not modeled, however,
we can change the drop freezing probabilities and
recompute.
3) Graupel formation is not included, but we can
inject hail embryos into the model at any time and
height to study their evolution.
for rapid hail growth when an embryo forms in or is
injected into the zone. One might anticipate that the
combination 1, - 20°C would be most sensitive to
injections.
To simulate the effects of embryo injections in a
HYDROMHEOR MIXING

4) The model has only one independent space vari-

able z, so no effects of wind shear, including tilted
updrafts and multicelled storms, can be simulated.
However, the model simulates the time evolution of
one cell and hail can grow in one cell.
5) Turbulent effects due to correlations between
deviations from the area means are not included.
6) Thermodynamic effects of hot particles (hail
warmer than environment) and spongy hail growth are
not included.
To simulate the effects of a more general model with
more degrees of freedom a set of 16 numerical
solutions was obtained. These included two types of
cloud droplet distributions, two freezing thresholds,
three types of embryo injection and one with no
injection. Six of these solutions are illustrated in
Figs. 2-5.
Cloud droplet distribution 1 suppresses growth by
coalescence, while distribution 4 which has a longer
tail (see Danielsen et al., 1972) triggers a rapid
growth. Reducing the drop freezing probability
threshold from -4 to - 20°C delays but does not REFLECTIVITY FACTOR 10 log ZK
eliminate embryo formation and, so, effectively in-
creases the depth of the hail growth zone, the zone FIG. 4. Hydro meteor and reflectivities per hydro meteor categories
and their sum corresponding to left diagram in Fig. 2, 14 min after
of supercooled water, and increases the probability cloud forms. Cloud droplet distribution l.
142
HYDROMETEOR MIXING
FIG. 5. Hydrometeor distribution and reflectivities corresponding
to right diagram in Fig. 3, 7 min after cloud forms. Cloud droplet
distribution 4.
"supercell", ala Browning and Foote, the 5 August
1970 sounding used in Danielsen et al. (1972) was
modified by increasing the surface Xv from 12.9 to
20 g kg- 1 and used in all runs. This change, of course,
lowers the cloud base and increases the supercooled
water in the hail growth zone. With these changes and
combinations we have maximized differences and the
model responds by generating not average, but extreme
examples of cloud depth, including stratospheric
penetration, hydrometeor mass loading and radar
reflectivity.
Figs. 2-5 include only examples when hail embryos
were injected. Without embryo injection combination
1, -20°C pumped most of its ice up into the anvil
because with the suppressed coalescence and retarded
freezing, the drops remained small and all froze at cold
temperatures within a narrow temperature-time range.
This combination does not produce a hailfall of medium
or large-sized hail. Yet when hail embryos are
injected, the storm rapidly converts to a hailstorm. The
effects of changing the size and number of injected
embryos are comparatively minor. With fewer, larger
embryos the hail grows faster.
Without hail embryo injection the combination 4,
-20°C behaves almost as the left diagram in Fig. 3.
Sufficient numbers of large drops are forming in the
updraft because coalescent growth is rapid and these
PART I: HAIL PHYSICS
are freezing close to -20°C, therefore, the injected
embryos constitute only a small perturbation on the
"natural" conditions. As before, increasing the
embryo size and decreasing the number increases the
already rapid hail growth rate.
Also, injecting 103 m- 3 ofthe small embryos 0.2-0.3
mm only very slightly reduced the resulting hail size,
while injecting 10 m- 3 of the large embryos 2-3 mm
only slightly increased the hail size relative to that
produced with no injection. Clearly, these injections
were not of sufficient number to significantly reduce
hail size by the principle of competition, the funda-
mental premise of hail modification by cloud seeding.
Figs. 4 and 5 may be contrasted with those presented
by Danielsen et al. (1972). Under the conditions
assumed here the hail is larger than in the previous
calculations because the surface mixing ratio is
higher, the updraft speed is larger, and the depth of the
supercooled growth region is larger. Injecting particles
has little effect on Fig. 5, but a significant effect on
Fig. 4.
Subject to the constraints of the model we can now
draw an important conclusion. When a cumulonimbus
has the conditions favorable for hail growth, i.e., a
strong updraft and a copious supply of supercooled
water, but lacks a sufficient number of hail embryos,
injecting embryos adds the sufficient condition and a
storm cell without hail changes dramatically, rapidly
producing large hail. Therefore, the critical role of ice
forming nuclei is evident.
However, when the initial cloud droplet distribution
is sufficiently broad, an adequate number of hail
embryos form in the updraft itself. Then the injection
of additional embryos has only a minor effect on the
hailfall. This result implies that the condensation
nuclei, especially those which can form large droplets,
can play a critical role.
Finally, these results suggest that cloud seeding can
increase as well as decrease hail, and that concentra-
tions of hail embryos exceeding 103 m- 1 are required
to induce effective hail suppression by competition
when the liquid water contents are as large as in these
simulations.
REFERENCES
de Almeida, F. C., 1977: Collision efficiency, collision angle and
impact velocity of hydrodynamically interacting cloud drop-
lets; a numerical study. J. Atmos. Sci., 34, 1286-1292.
Bleck, R., 1970: A fast approximative method for integrating the
stochastic coalescence equation. J. Geophys. Res., 15,
5165-5171.
Browning, K. A., and G. B. Foote, 1976: Airflow and hail growth
in supercell storms and some implications for hail suppression.
Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 102, 499-533.
Danielsen, E. F., R. Bleck, and D. Morris, 1972: Hail growth by
stochastic collection in a cumulus model. J. Atmos. Sci.,
29, 133-155.
Fawbush, E. F., and R. Miller, 1953: A method for forecasting
EDWIN F. DANIELSEN
hailstone size at the earth's surface. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.,
34, 235-244.
Foster, D. S., and F. Bates, 1956: A hail size forecasting technique.
Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 37, 135-141.
Haagenson, P. L., and E. Danielsen, 1972: Operational steady-state
model. NCAR internal report, 29 pp.
Humphreys, W. J., 1928: The uprush of air necessary to sustain
the hailstone. Mon. Wea. Rev., 56, 314.
Kessler, E., P. J. Feteris, and E. A. Newburg, 1963: Role of
microphysical processes in shaping vertical profiles of precipita-
tion and clouds. Preprints Tenth Weather Radar Con,(.,
Washington, D. C., Amer. Meteor. Soc., 92-97b.
Knight, C. A., and N. C. Knight, 1970: Hailstone embryos.
J. Atmos. Sci., 27, 659-666.
Kozub, G., and C. Thompson, 1965: Synoptic survey of the 1964
hail season in Alberta. Canada Dept. of Transport, Meteor.
Branch, CIR-4219, TEC-565, 23 pp.
Longley, R. W., and C. Thompson, 1%5: A study of the causes
of hail. J. Appl. Meteor., 4, 69-82.
Meeker, R. 1., Jr., 1951: An approach to the hail forecast problem.
American Airlines, Inc., Los Angeles International Airport.
143
Miller, R. C., 1%7: Semi-objective evaluation of the relative
importance or parameters favoring production of severe
storms. Preprints Fifth Conf Severe Local Storms, St. Louis,
Amer. Meteor. Soc., 2-9.
Morgan, G. M., Jr., 1970: An examination of the wet-bulb zero as
a hail forecasting parameter in the Po Valley, Italy. J. Appl.
Meteor., 9, 537-540.
Renick, J. H., 1971: Radar reflectivity profiles of individual cells
in a persistent multicellular Alberta hailstorm. Preprints
Seventh Conf Severe Local Storms, Kansas City, Amer.
Meteor. Soc., 63-70.
Schnell, R. C., and G. Vall, 1973: World-wide source of leaf-
derived freezing nuclei. Nature, 246, 212-213.
Sly, W. K., 1965: A convective index in relation to hail. Canada
Dept. of Transport, Meteor. Branch, CIR-4240, TEC-573, 30 pp.
Towery, N. G., and S. Changnon, Jr., 1970: Characteristics of
hail producing radar echoes in Illinois. Mon. Wea. Rev.,
98, 346-353.
Weinstein, A. 1., and L. G. Davis, 1%8: A parameterized
numerical model of cumulus convection. Pennsylvania State
University Rept. No. 11, NSF Grant GA-777, 50 pp.
 Forecasting Hailfall in Alberta
J. H. RENICK

Alberta Weather Modification Board, Red Deer, Alberta

J. B. MAXWELL

Atmospheric Environment Service, Toronto, Ontario

ABSTRACT

The procedures utilized by the Alberta Hail Project 1 for the daily preparation of thunder-
hai~fall foreca~tin.g
star~, hail, ~nd hail size .forecast~ a~e summarized. Forecasts are routinely made of storm depth, type,
motiOn, duratiOn, and maximum hail size. The use of a simple one-dimensional loaded-moist adiabatic cloud
mod~!. as a forecast aid ~or assessing the degree of hydrostatic instability is discussed and a nomogram developed
empmcally for foreca.stmg maximum hail size based upon the computed vertical velocity in the model and the
tempe.rature at the hei~ht of that velocity maximum. Over one season, 63% of the maximum hail size forecasts
were m the correct size category (of a possible six categories) and 80% of the forecasts to within one size
category.

1. Introduction years and basically relies upon predicting the strength

Hailstorms are a frequent phenomena in the Alberta
Hail Project area (Fig. 1) during the summer months.
Hail occurs within the project area on 2 out of 3 days
during the months of June and July. Wojtiw (1975)
has recently summarized 17 seasons of hailfall for the
larger area shown in Fig. 1 and found an average of61.3
hail days per season. In some regions of the project
area, a single township (36 mi2) experiences an average
of 5 hail days per year.
Predicting the probability of hail occurring at a
specific location from a specific storm is not yet
possible. However, useful forecasts of hail occurrence
within the project area shown in Fig. 1 are routinely
made.
Early in the history of hail research in Alberta,
Douglas and Hitschfeld (1958), after only one season's
storm data (83 storms), determined the probability of
a storm producing hail at the ground from the height
of the radar echo top (Fig. 2). These types of simple
relationships reflect little understanding of how hail is
formed. Yet, in spite of the many complexities in the
hail formation process, these simple techniques, often
in the form of convective indices-a host of which
exist, do demonstrate some skill.
2. Hail forecasting
The technique used for forecasting hailfall in
Alberta by AHP have developed over a number of
1 The Alberta Hail Project is a 5-year hail suppression test
spon~ore~ by the Alberta Government through the Alberta Weather
Mo.dlficatlo_n Board and the Alberta Research Council with meteoro-
logi~al assistance from the Atmospheric Environment Service,
Environment Canada.
145
of convection.
To assist in estimating updraft magnitudes, a simple,
one-dimensional, loaded moist-adiabatic (LMA) cloud
model developed by Chisholm (1973) is used as a
forecast aid. This LMA model is considered as a multi-
level instability index and has replaced all other
instability indices except for EGDEX described in
section 4. Like many other indices the LMA model
suffers from inaccurate assessments of input parame-
ters such as surface temperature and moisture; but
as a multi-level index, it is an improvement over
two-level indices.
Initially, the model outputs of maximum available
parcel energy, maximum vertical velocity ( V max), and
adiabatic water content were used to estimate the
maximum hail size based upon a comparison of these
computed parameters and reported maximum hail sizes
within the project area. In early 1974, theLMA model
was modified (i) to allow input of upper-air data simply
in the form of significant levels rather than at pre-
determined levels at every 30 mb, (ii) to calculate and
output lifting condensation level pressure and tempera-
ture values for given surface parcels, and (iii) to
calculate a modified vertical velocity profile (English,
1973) in addition to the model's standard velocity
profile. The main effect of this third modification was
to lower the height within the cloud at which the max-
imum updraft velocity would occur, thus attempting to
reflect recent observational evidence (Marwitz, 1972).
Diagnostic LMA model reruns of upper-air data for
210 hail days from 1969 to 1973 were examined
(Maxwell, 1974) to determine if any combinations of
the various model outputs would yield a useful
nomogram for forecasting maximum hail size. In
146 PART I: HAIL PHYSICS

siderably smaller than those predicted. Hailstone melt-

i-------------------------
• EDMONTON
ing, from theoretical considerations (Macklin, 1964;
Browning and Beimers, 1967), could only partially
"
1
I

\ account for the difference.

\
Attempts in the U.S.S.R. nomogram to account for
\.,'"'
possible melting (Zverev, 1972) also fail for Alberta
\ •. cases. No completely satisfactory explanation or
\ criterion was found to explain these results; however,
"·'7
''-
the environmental wet-bulb ooc height was identi-
l."
fied as a useful indicator. For the high freezing level
-~- \ I CALGARY
cases where golfball or larger hail was predicted, golf-
...... ' ball or larger hail was observed for 67% of the cases
~~.\ '\\ ___________,,'
if the wet-bulb ooc level was at or below 11,000 ft.
\ If the wet-bulb ooc level was above 11 000 ft, walnut
't PROVINCE OF ALBERTA
; to smaller hail was observed for 78% of the cases.
.,i i..
25 SO MILES
The nomogram was first tested operationally during
the 1974 field season. Table 1 from Maxwell (1975)
\....._ summarizes the results of 19 maximum hail size
'·----------------- ------~ forecasts for the 1974 season based on prognostic
FIG. I. Present Alberta Hail Project target area (18 500 mi2 ) in tephigrams (see section 3). Shot sized hail was never
Alberta (solid border) and older project area (22 000 mi 2 ) used forecast. The maximum hail size was forecast correctly
by Wojtiw (1975) and others.
63% of the time that hail was forecast and 80% of the
time to within one size category. These figures may
addition to the model outputs mentioned above, those be compared with the results of diagnostic reruns of
considered included the temperature at the level of the 24 hail day soundings during the season, for which the
maximum vertical velocity (Tv ), the modified V max, nomogram gave the observed maximum hail size cor-
its level and corresponding temp;;'rature, the cloud base rectly 79% of the time and to within one size
height and temperature, and the height of the freezing category 92% of the time. Six hail days during
level in the cloud. The model outputs most highly cor- the season had cloud freezing levels > 14 500ft MSL
related to observed maximum hailfall were V max and and were forecast as golfball or larger hail days by the
Tvmax' The results from the 210 hail days are shown in nomogram. Of these, two cases resulted in golfball or
Fig. 3. The partitions are approximations to dis- larger hail being observed, one of which could have
criminate the hail size categories. Eighty percent of the been correctly identified under the wet-bulb height
points lie within the appropriate partition. criterion. Of the remaining four cases for which walnut
In a number of cases, the model results indicated or smaller hail was actually observed, three would have
golfball or larger hail to be expected but only walnut been correctly identified.
or smaller sizes were observed. Fig. 4 indicates that
such cases are characterized by cloud freezing levels
100
exceeding 14 500ft MSL (4.4 km). The available parcel ,.....,
energy shown is directly related to V max· Thus the ""'
'-'

distribution of hail sizes for the lower cloud freezing .....

.... 80
level cases is to be expected. If the 48 high in-cloud ~
freezing level cases are excluded from Fig. 3, the 0
c.t.. 60
resulting nomogram predicts 86% of the maximum hail
sizes correctly and 96% to within one size category. .........~
Fig. 3 is similar in concept to the nomogram de- .... 40
veloped in the U.S.S.R. (Zverev, 1972) shown in Fig. 5. ~
The same two parameters are used; however, this @ 20
p_,
nomogram is partitioned into areas of rain, hail, and
soft hail only. oL--"'T"'----.--~---.
As indicated above, the present nomogram does not 20 40
predict maximum hail size effectively when the cloud HEICHI' (kft)
freezing level is higher than 14 500 ft. In most, but FIG. 2. Probability ofhailfall as a function of maximum echo height.
not all such cases, the observed hail sizes are con- (From Douglas and Hitschfeld, 1958.)
 -70

-60
2
6 4
4
3 2 6 4 6
66 66 6
-50 6 22 2 6
6 5 45
6 6 6 2 2
4
J. H. RENICK AND J. B. MAXWELL

-40
TEMPERATURE
(•C)
AT
VELOCITY
MAXIMUM
-20

-10

SHOT PEA GRAPE WALNUT GOLF BALL LARGER

10

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 llO
-1
MAXIMUM VELOCITY (msec )

FIG. 3. Results and proposed nomogram for forecasting maximum hail size from LMA model diagnostic reruns of 1%9-1973 hail days. Hail size
categories are (1) shot, 1-3 mm; (2) pea, 4-12 mm; (3) grape, 13-20 mm; (4) walnut, 21-32 mm; (5) golfball, 33-52 mm; (6) larger than golfball.
149
148 PART I: HAIL PHYSICS

3.5

3.0

3
CLOUD FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHT (km MSL)

FIG. 4. Segregation of 1969-1973 diagnostic LMA model results by cloud freezing level.

3. Forecasting procedures surface and upper-air weatherfax products are utilized

to prepare the forecast issued at 1000 MST for the
The hail forecasting technique generally employed present day (1000 to 2400 MST). After completing the
at AHP is shown schematically in Fig. 6. Standard detailed analyses, the forecaster concentrates on pre-
J. H. RENICK AND J. B. MAXWELL 149

!"CI
AT
VELOCITY
MAXIMUM

I
10

10 20 30 40 ~0
MAXIMUM VELOCITY lm-· 1 1

FIG. 5. Comparison of maximum hail size forecasting nomogram with similar U.S.S.R.
nomogram. Areas on U.S.S.R. nomogram are I (rain), II (hail), III (soft hail).

paring a prognostic afternoon sounding for the project
area. This sounding is the critical key to the forecast.
The 1200 GMT sounding from the western edge of the
project area is modified for surface heating, thermal
advection, mid-level vertical motion, and surface
moisture advection using various generally available
upper-level analyses, prognostic charts and numerical
products. To date, all such modifications are subjective
estimates only.
Once the prognostic sounding is prepared, the
instability is assessed with the aid of the LMA model.
Using the morning wind hodograph (with modifications
if necessary) and model updraft predictions, the likely
storm type is forecast. These predictions are based
upon the identification in Alberta by Chisholm and
Renick (1972) of three basic hodograph structures and
updraft categories associated with three basic storm
types in Alberta. These three storm classifications are
briefly summarized here:
a. Single-cell storms
weak to moderate updrafts (5 to 20m s- 1), little or
no windshear-with the stronger updrafts, dis-
organized storm complexes form.
Fig. 7 shows typical hodographs for the three storm
classifications.
The storm motion is forecast using the mean mid-
level winds (approximately 3-5 km) for single cell
storms. For multicell and supercell storms, a propaga-
tion component of some 20°-40° to the right is added
depending upon the orientation of the low level winds
and strength of the updraft. A greater tendency for
large propagation vectors has been noted for stronger
updrafts.
The duration or lifetime of a storm is forecast in-
trinsically from the storm type expected; single cell
storms, 30 min; multicell storms, 1-3 h; supercell
storms, 2-5 h.
The region of storm development and onset time are
determined by subjective judgments involving the
degree of instability and daytime heating required to
start convection, surface wind convergence patterns
and timing of arrival of pressure troughs and/or
fronts in the area.
The EGDEX forecast instability map (Fig. 8) pro-
duced by the Edmonton Weather Office has been found
to be useful here also.
This map is a spatial analysis of instability over

b. Multicell storms TABLE l. Forecast maximum hail size verifications.

moderate to strong updraft (20 to 40 m s- 1 ) , moder-
Observed Pea Grape Walnut Golfball > Golfball
ate unidirectional windshear.
Pea 5
Grape 2 2 1
c. Supercell storms Walnut 2
strong updrafts (30 to 50 m s- 1 ), bi-directional wind- Golfball 3
>Golfball
shear.
150 PART I: HAIL PHYSICS

I1200
SOUNDING
GMT ~~
PROGNOSTIC SOUNDING
INSTABILITY ASSESSMENT 1-
HAIL FORECAST

MAXIMUM HAIL

I
(SIMPLE MODEL)
~ SIZE
1-
VORTICITY ADVECTION }-
MID-LEVEL VERTICAL MOTION 2- STORM TYPE

IUPPER-AIR FLOW
THERMAL ADVECTION AT
I
- DURATION
- MOTION

SEVERAL LEVELS I r+" 3 -

I r-
REGION

SURFACE AI R FLOW 1-
ADVECTION &CONVERGENCE L...+ 4- ONSET TIME

ISURFACE HEATING ~

IPRESSURE TROUGHS
ALL LEVELS
l
I
IFRONTS
SURFACE OR ALOFT
I
I
I EGDEX I
FIG. 6. Schematic of hail forecasting procedure.

Alberta based on the difference between the 1500 GMT

180
surface wet-bulb potential temperature statistically
adjusted to 2100 GMT and the forecast 2400 GMT
500 mb temperature converted to wet-bulb potential
temperature assuming the air to be saturated at that
270 level.
a 10 20m sec·• An example of this forecast chart is shown in Fig. 8
STORM for 6 July 1975 and hailswaths produced by storms that
MOTION day. All storms produced golfball or larger hail. This
forecast occasionally suffers from lack of adequate
synoptic parameters such as strong low level tempera-
ture advection.
The forecast procedures described here have been
applied by various forecasters on the AHP for a number
of years and resulted in a Yes-No hail forecast
accuracy of 77% for the five seasons 1970 to 1974
(Maxwell, 1975).
b
4. Summary

Useful forecasts of storm type and severity based

upon predicted maximum hail size and storm duration
180 are being made but improvements are required,
particularly in forecasting areal coverage. These im-

FIG. 7. Typical wind hodographs for single cell (a), multicell

(b) and supercell (c) storms. The single cell storm hodograph
c 40 m sec·•
shows light winds with little wind shear whereas the multicell
storm hodograph has substantial wind shear, but in one plane,
parallel to the direction of storm motion. The supercell storm hodo-
graph exhibits low level directional shear which is responsible for
tJ,e entry of air in the low levels on the RH storm flank. (From
Chisholm and Renick, 1972.)
J. H. RENICK AND J. B. MAXWELL
4
4 Dennis, A. S. and D. J. Musil, 1973: Calculations of hailstone
3
FIG. 8. EGDEX forecast instability map for Province of Alberta,
6 July 1975. Increasing values of la belled contours show increasing
instability. (Courtesy Edmonton Weather Office.)
provements could best be brought about at present by
defining more accurately the meteorological conditions
associated with hailstorms. Each of the several
parameters involved in the forecast that are currently
treated subjectively should be developed into objective
techniques. A further extension would be to develop
these into a meso-scale kinematic model to extend their
interpretation. This model should include terrain fea-
tures, solar insolation, moisture sources, and air flow
151
at several levels. Special attention is required in the
area of convective development and organization re-
quired to initiate storms versus what is required to
sustain storms once initiated. Progress in this area
should help to determine the critical interactions
between the storm and its environment and why
storms develop and dissipate as they do. The predic-
tion of these latter occurrences would be a major step
in forecasting hailswath areas.
REFERENCES
Browning, K. A., and J. G. D. Beimers, 1967: The oblateness of
large hailstones. J. Appl. Meteor., 6, 1075-1081.
Chisholm, A. J., and J. H. Renick, 1972: The kinematics of
multicell and supercell Alberta hailstorms. Alberta Hail
Studies 1972. Alberta Research Council, Edmonton, Alberta,
Hail Studies Report 72-2, 24- 31.
- - , 1973: Alberta hailstorms. Part 1: Radar case studies and
airflow models. Meteor. Mono gr., No. 36, A mer. Meteor.
Soc. , 1-36.
Danielsen, E. F., 1977: Inherent difficulties in hail probability
prediction. Meteor. Monogr ., No. 38, 135-143.
growth and trajectories in a simple cloud model. J. Atmos. Sci.,
30, 278-288.
Douglas, R. H., and W. Hirschfeld, 1958: Studies of Alberta
Hailstorms, 1957. McGill University, Stormy Weather Group,
Sci. Rep. MW-27, 79 pp.
English, M., 1973 : Alberta Hailstorms. Part II: Growth of large
hail in the storm. Meteor. Mono gr. , No. 36, Amer. Meteor.
Soc., 37-98.
Macklin, W. C., 1964: Factors affecting the heat transfer from
hailstones. Quart. J . Roy. Meteor. Soc., 90, 84-90.
Marwitz, J. D., 1972: Trajectories within the weak echo regions of
hailstorms. Preprints 15th Radar Meteorology Conf , Champaign,
Amer. Meteor. Soc., 53-56.
Maxwell, J . B. , 1974: Unpublished LMA diagnostic results.
Atmospheric Environment Service, Toronto, Ontario.
- - , 1975: Alberta Hail Project field program 1974. Meteorolog-
ical section. Interim Weather Modification Board, Alberta
Agriculture, Three Hills, Alberta, Rep. No. I, R. J. Deibert
and J. H. Renick, Eds ., 20-31.
Wojtiw, L., 1975: Climatic summaries of hailfall in central Alberta
(1957-1973). Alberta Research Council, Edmonton, Alberta,
Atmos. Sci. Rep. 75-1, 102 pp.
Zverev, A. S., Ed., 1972: Practical Work in Synoptic Meteorology.
Leningrad, 225- 252.
 Response to
"Inherent Difficulties in Hail Probability Prediction" and
"Forecasting Hailfall in Alberta"
R. C. MILLER1 AND
Air Force Global Weather Central, Offutt Air Force Base, Nebraska
The two interesting papers by Danielsen and by
Renick and Maxwell point up some of the difficulties
inherent in trying to forecast hail. One can imagine
with all the problems expected in hail forecasting for
limited geographical regions (i.e., Alberta and NE
Colorado, discussed in the papers), how these prob-
lems increase by orders of magnitude when a fore-
caster is dealing with customers located in every
state of the Union. Simply put, what works in one
area doesn't necessarily work in another.
The hail forecasting problem at the Air Force
Global Weather Central (AFGWC) is complicated by
the fact that the customer is primarily concerned
with larger hail sizes which can result in damage
to aircraft on the ground or aloft: one large stone
in an area of widespread small hail, falling through
an aircraft canopy or striking a wing can cause much
damage and resultant expense if precautions are not
taken. We are, therefore, tasked with the responsi-
bility of issuing possibility forecasts for the largest
hail expected.
The Fawbush-Miller index (1953) described in
Danielsen's paper, is still in use at AFGWC's
severe forecast unit. We feel the index gives us a
reasonable upper limit on hail size in potential
thunderstorm areas. The calculation is automated,
and accomplished for each unmodified rawinsonde
temperature-moisture profile twice daily, for the US
and Canada. The automated routine provides a hail
size based on assumed parcel lifting (lowest layer)
or convective heating, whichever LFC is lower.
This hail size is subjectively modified by the
forecaster depending on the availability of a lifting
mechanism or sufficient ground heating, the height
of the wet bulb zero, and regional and seasonal
hail climatology. Danielsen's nuclei criteria, while of
course, not being explicitly evaluated, is thought
to be implicitly contained in the climatology (i.e.,
favorable nuclei conditions have a regional de-
pendence). The wet bulb zero condition has been
shown to be of value statistically (Miller, 1972).
Further evaluation based on specialized analysis
1 Environmental Sciences Group, GE/MATSCO, Beltsville, Md.
2 University of Oklahoma, Norman.
153
J. A. McGINLEY 2
techniques (Miller, 1972), conventional and spe-
cialized numerical progs, satellite imagery and radar
data is used to develop two types of thunder-
storm/hail forecasts:
1) Regional advisories for particular types of
thunderstorms (i.e., tornadic, severe, moderate) in
which hail size is understood by category of storm,
and
2) Weather warnings for specific sites, in which
hail size is explicitly specified for an area of radius
25 n mi around the site. A recent addition to our
warning forecasts has been the inclusion of a prob-
ability of a thunderstorm event (either winds or hail
of a given category) occurring within 5 n mi of the
site. An evaluation of the usefulness of such fore-
casts in underway.
The AFGWC hail forecasting technique, although
more unsophisticated, is similar to Renick and Max-
well's, both being based on calculation of a repre-
sentative vertical velocity in the hail growth zone.
One definite advantage of Renick and Maxwell's
technique is the use of a forecaster-produced prog-
nostic sounding used in the initialization of the
LMA cloud model. A similar technique could be
established at AFGWC, but due to the number of
soundings required, would have to be automated.
Danielsen commented on the utility but vague
nature of the wet bulb zero in hail forecasting.
We believe that the wet bulb is a useful parameter
as it provides an indication of melting potential of
hailstones during fall. Marwitz (1972) and others, along
with photographic evidence, shows that hail is often
ejected from the updraft and falls through the
environmental air, or thoroughly mixed air on the
cloud boundary, especially in thunderstorms grow-
ing into a sheared environment. The wet bulb zero
(WBZ) represents the minimum depth of air in the
cloud/environment system where the hailstone, even
allowing for evaporative cooling, is subject to melting
(hail surface >0°C}. In a strong thunderstorm, a
WBZ near 14 000 ft AGL does not preclude the
formation of hail (assuming Danielsen's nuclei con-
ditions are satisfied). However, due to the delay in
reaching the ground and melting enroute, there will
be a significant size reduction. One may then suppose
154
that the lower the WBZ, the more favorable condi-
tions are for hail. This is true up to a point. As
mentioned in the Danielsen paper, Morgan (1970)
found that in Italy's Po Valley, the WBZ is correlated
to environmental low level available moisture, which
must place a limit on how low the WBZ can be if the
minimum moisture criteria is to be satisfied. A surface
wet bulb of ooc for a range of terrain heights from
1000-5000 MSL, yields surface mixing ratios ~4.0
to 4. 7, clearly below criteria established by Danielsen
and by Renick and Maxwell (Fig. 3). Thus, the WBZ
height provides only a lower limit for evaluating
low-level moisture, and the only constraint is that the
WBZ must be somewhere above the ground so that
the surface moisture criteria can be met. There is a
danger in assuming that a climatological correlation
(Morgan, 1970) in one area is valid in another.
Experience has shown that hail in the Po Valley is
mainly associated with systems of the cold core type,
dynamically different from the summer time synoptic
conditions in the Plains. The use of WBZ height
defines only the evaporation potential for a layer of air
in which the stone must fall, and in order to be of use
must be combined with an independent moisture
analysis. Typically, dry air over a moist layer of
sufficient depth, places the WBZ height in a pre-
ferred range, namely 7000-9000 ft. As we know
from climatology, the region where this condition
exists most frequently is over the Great Plains of
the United States and Canada. Hail is sometimes
produced in areas where it is infrequent by local
storm modifications to the WBZ.
We are in enthusiastic agreement with Danielsen
on the four conditions necessary for hail development.
It seems reasonable that the dual nuclei condition is
satisfied more infrequently over oceanic areas and in
the tropics. The fact that hail is more common in high
latitudes must be due in part to dust and dirt driven
into the atmosphere by strong surface winds in the
major cyclone belt, and the cooler temperatures in mid-
latitudes enhancing the availability of ice nuclei. Hail
in the tropics is rare, most likely due to the unfavor-
able WBZ height, combined with hail growth at rela-
tively warm temperatures at high levels in the cloud.
Over mid-latitude oceans, few hail climatology studies
exist, but we can surmise that hail would be less
frequent owing to the need for a lifting mechanism
to initiate convection, compared to the availability of
both lifting and strong surface heating over land. The
critical role of nuclei distribution and initial drop
distribution is a factor the field forecaster can com-
prehend, but cannot put to practical use at present.
As Danielsen points out, until we alter our data
gathering techniques to include lithometeor mixing
ratios or perhaps parameterization of nuclei avail-
PART I: HAIL PHYSICS
ability by delineating and advecting pollutants over
the hemisphere, the operational forecaster is forced
into calculating only part of the process, namely
the forecast updraft speed and a crude adjustment
for hail melting.
The next effort in improving hail forecasts should
be a more exact estimate of updraft speed. The
papers of Danielsen and Renick and Maxwell both
point out how cloud models that are adaptable for
operational use fine tune the crude vertical velocities
obtained by the Fawbush/Miller method. For further
refinement, in strongly dynamic situations, the role
of atmospheric forcing in the production of strong
vertical velocities below the LFC, should be cal-
culated. Further research should continue to define
conditions and regions in which certain drop dis-
tributions and or nuclei mixing ratios work best in
various hail prediction models.
In commenting on the papers, we were surprised
that very little mention was made of radar tech-
niques as a tool for short range hail forecasts. At
AFGWC, although our radar information is processed
by-hand twice before it is available to the fore-
caster, it remains a valuable tool in estimating hail
potential and onset time. Semiorganized meso sys-
tems appearing on radar allow us to provide two to
three hour lead times for a given location. Perhaps
some comment should have been made on the re-
liability of vaults, weak echo regions, hooks and
radar intensity levels, as indicators of the probable
size and distribution of hail.
We would like to address the authors, particularly
Dr. Danielsen, on the role of thunderstorm elec-
tricity in influencing an initial drop distribution which,
as shown in Danielsen's paper, has a marked in-
fluence on hail growth rates and distribution.
To summarize, we feel Renick and Maxwell's paper
represents an optimum "state of the art" opera-
tional hail forecasting method. Danielsen's work,
while excellently defining the factors needed in hail
formation, illustrates the difficult problems which
must be solved before we can realize major im-
provement in operational hail forecasting.
REFERENCES
Fawbush, E. F., and R. C. Miller, 1953: A method for fore-
casting hailstone size at the earth's surface. Bull. Amer.
Meteor. Soc., 34, 235-244.
Marwitz, J. D., 1972: The structure and motion of severe hail-
storms, Parts I-II-III. J. Appl. Meteor., 11, 166-201.
Morgan, G. M., Jr., 1970: An examination of the wet bulb zero as
a hail forecasting parameter in the Po Valley, Italy. J.
App/. Meteor., 9, 537-540.
Miller, R. C., 1972: Notes on analysis and severe storm fore-
casting procedures of the Air Force Global Weather Central.
AWSTR 200.
PART II: HAIL SUPPRESSION

Hail Suppression: Progress in Assessing its Costs and Benefits

STEWART w. BORLAND
National Center for Atmospheric Research, 1 Boulder, Colorado

ABSTRACT

This paper reviews the contributions of the social and biological sciences to our understanding of the wide range
of benefits and costs which may be anticipated from the development of reliable and effective techniques of
operational hail suppression. The first two sections introduce the subject and outline the limited amount of progress
made prior to 1970. Sections 3 and 4 describe investigations into the direct benefits and the actual and
anticipated/operational costs of hail suppression programs. Research into secondary economic effects and
ecological impacts is reviewed in Section 5, which also notes the present unsatisfactory state of our knowledge
about down-wind influences. Efforts to understand the complex and dynamic reactions of people affected by
programs of weather modification are dealt with in Section 7, while Section 8 outlines the work oflegal scholars in
planning a framework of laws and institutions capable of coping with the social conflicts which will accompany
widespread application of suppression techniques. The two concluding sections highlight some significant research
on impact assessment presently underway, and identify some issues which have thus far received insufficient
attention. Comprehensive, quantitatively oriented cost-benefit analysis and operational hail suppression are both
relatively new techniques about which considerable controversy continues. They have not yet been combined in a
satisfactory manner but the effort to do so has produced much useful information and should be continued.

1. Introduction the obvious (albeit immensely complex) one of the

extent to which cloud seeding suppresses hail.
When the potential social benefits of hail suppression This paper traces the progress made in attempting to
are discussed, someone usually asks this sort of answer some of those "other" questions. It would not
question: "Why be concerned with hypothetical be wrong to characterize that progress as erratic,
tradeoffs among incommensurable impacts which may fragmented, and inadequate. On the other hand, to deny
result from the assumed effectiveness of an unproven that any progress has been made would be both
technology?" Such questions arise because scien- inaccurate and unfair. It may also be encouraging to
tifically convincing evidence of the physical effective- note that most ofthe forward movement has taken place
ness of current hail suppression techniques is in- just within the past few years. Because this is the case,
adequate. They have the unmistakable ring of common it seemed feasible to briefly review the relevant
sense. But while the attitude they reveal is common literature up to 1969 in the next section, titled "Early
enough, such questions are not as sensible as they may Work". About 1970, the volume of work either directly
appear because they ignore two salient facts. First, that or closely related to this subject expanded to include
operational hail suppression is now a widespread studies addressing numerous specific aspects of the
actuality, with significant and unavoidable impacts not impacts of suppression techniques. For this reason,
all related to its physical effects on hailfall; 2 second, Sections 3 through 7 each deal with particular classes of
that the citizens who provide the tax dollars which costs, benefits, and/or adjustments (e.g. direct, indi-
support programs of hail research3 expect their rect, social, legal). This approach serves to emphasize
investment to produce answers to more questions than the extensiveness of the evaluation problem and
implicitly reveals the areas in which little has been
done.
'The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by Section 8 describes some of the work either
the National Science Foundation. Part of the work reported herein
was performed as a part of, and with some support from, the National underway but incomplete or currently in the planning
Hail Research Experiment, managed by the National Center for stages as well as providing a cursory overview and
Atmospheric Research and sponsored by the Weather Modification
Program, Research Applications Directorate, National Science inter-comparison of the various methodological tools
Foundation. now being brought to bear on the problems of
2 In 1973, 15 nations were operating hail prevention programs over

areas ranging up to 40 000 km 2 in size (WMO, 1973).

evaluating emerging technologies. The concluding
3 Governmental support of hail research is difficult to isolate section raises a number of important questions which
because of its overlap with such other research areas as cloud physics have not yet received satisfactory answers and suggests
and nucleation studies. At a minimum, however, U. S. Federal
spending in the seventies has approximated $4 million annually some of the issues which should be given priority in
(Fleagle eta/., 1974). future research.
155
156 PART II: HAIL SUPPRESSION

2. Early work (1942-1969) harvesting dates of the principal crops, he was able to
provide a qualitative assessment of the degree to which
Although investigations of the physical mechanisms various crops are differentially susceptible to hail
of hail formation were undertaken at least as early as the damage as a function of their stage of growth.
time of Anaxagoras (500-428 B.C.), the notion that hail Lemons was quite aware of the secondary effects of
could be suppressed, by other than metaphysical crop losses to hail on the income stream of a farming
means, is of more recent origin. 4 Its exact genesis is region. Though no quantification is attempted, his
uncertain but sometime during the 16th century the idea description is vivid and accurate: "The effects of the
of preventing hailfall by firing artillery at the storm loss do not end in the direct loss and suffering imposed
clouds had gained considerable credence. About 1880, on the farmer . . . the diminished purchasing power
an Italian scientist named Bombicci developed a of the growers is felt by those who supply feeds, seed,
plausible explanation of the causal links in the process machinery, food, household supplies and other items to
of suppressing hail with cannon fire and by the tum of the farmer''. Persuaded of the futility of searching for a
the century 10,000 hail cannons were deployed ''technological fix," but fully aware of the gravity of the
throughout northern Italy (Morgan, 1973). problem, Lemons concluded that social and economic
A few years later the cannon batteries were impacts of hail could be alleviated by greater utilization
disbanded. Two world wars were to intervene before of insurance, with premiums set to more accurately
efforts to suppress hail by physical means again became reflect expected losses.
a serious pursuit. The year chosen to mark the The success of the Schaefer-Vonnegut cloud seeding
beginning of this survey of "early" work is that in experiments in 1946-47 and the subsequent advocacy
which Hoyt Lemons published several articles on the of the new techniques by Irving Langmuir encouraged
climatology of hail which included some reasonably the belief that a proven technology was at hand which
well-founded estimates of the magnitude ofU. S. crop could provide the farming community with either
losses to hail (Lemons, 1942a, 1942b). While hopefulfor additional rainfall or protection from hail, almost on
the future success of hail suppression, he declared that: demand. Many believed that the benefits of im-
''There is general agreement among scientists at mediately applying these new techniques were beyond
present that no mechanical apparatus nor other device question and a large number of strictly operational
has any power of prevention or alleviation of programs were mounted during the early fifties. At the
hailstorms" (Lemons, 1942b). His estimates of national peak of this activity, nearly 10% of the land area of the
average annual crop losses, while too low in absolute U. S. was under some form of commercial modification,
dollars (about $400 million using 1974 price levels) are a figure which dwindled to about 1% as the experience
almost identical to current calculations when expressed of the decade showed that the expectations oflarge and
as a percentage (~2%) of total value of agricultural reliable physical effects had been overly optimistic
production. 5 Lemons also identified those regions of the (Fleagle, 1968). 6 One cause of this disenchantment
nation in which crop losses to hail are most significant, was the lack of any kind of systematic evaluation of
presenting analyses of hailstorm frequencies as ob- results. Ecological and economic impacts were either
served at both regular and cooperative weather bureau ignored or taken for granted, along with such basic
stations over the years 1916-1930. He concluded that: measures of effect as target-control comparisons using
"Damaging hailstorms are more frequent in the Great surface hail sensors, with the result that neither
Plains and are more significant to the economy of that skeptics nor supporters could construct a factual base
region than to any other region of the country.'' At the on which to stand. The situation called for action and in
same time his extensive contacts with crop-hail 1958 Congress directed the National Science Founda-
insurance firms supplied him with convincing evidence tion (NSF) to initiate a program of research and
of the damage done to fruit and vegetable crops in the evaluation in the field of weather modification.
Pacific Northwest and to cotton and tobacco in One of the earliest investigators to take advantage of
southern and eastern states. Unfortunately, his sources this NSF support was R. A. Schleusener. In conjunc-
of information differed widely in both coverage and tion with a cloud-seeding program in northeast Col-
reliability so that no consistent sub-national loss totals orado carried out by a commercial modifier in 1959,7
could be calculated. However, by combining his hail Schleusener conducted an evaluation of certain aspects
frequency charts with a survey of planting and of the operation including an enquiry into the relation-

4 Shooting arrows into the air (circa 100 B. C.) and ringing church 6 By 1973 the target area of weather modification programs
bells (700 A. D.) are, perhaps arbitrarily, relegated to the category of reporting to NOAA had once more risen, involving about 7% of the
metaphysics. tota1land area in the United States (Charak and DiGiulian, 1974).
5 The higher proportion of farm output which is now marketed 7 Five aircraft and 125 ground generators were operated over an

rather than being consumed on the farm may account for this apparent area of 3400 mi2. Program financing was by voluntary contributions of
discrepancy. 15' per acre for dry land and 50' for irrigated land (Schleusener, 1962).
STEWART W. BORLAND 157

ships between hailfall parameters (as measured with 400.----,-----,-----.----.-----,

hailpads) and resulting losses in the yield of sugar beets. 300
Derived impact energies in the range 50-100 foot- 200
pounds per square-foot were observed to be associated
with medium crop damage (25-50% defoliation).
100
Damage reductions which might be achieved by
reducing the impact energy of the hailfall were
estimated by assuming a direct relationship between
percentage damage and impact energy above the
threshold value at which damage appeared to begin
(Schleusener, 1962). ~ 20
iii
The desires of the crop-hail insurance companies to z
w
develop reliable and consistent damage appraisal .....
z
techniques led to the initiation of systematic studies of
damage/yield relationships by simulation at least as
early as the late forties (e.g. Morris, 1948). In these
studies, damage roughly similar to that inflicted by
hailstones is reproduced through cutting, pinching,
breaking, and tearing the stems and leaves of various
types of plants at selected stages of growth. The nature
and extent of this damage is recorded and the ultimate ,L___ _ i_ _ _ __ L_ _ _ __ L_ _ _ _~--~

yield of the damaged plants is measured against control
plots. A wide variety of crops have now been studied in
this way, including sugar beets, flax, grain sorghum,
corn, soybeans, tobacco, beans and wheat. These
experiments are useful in developing indices of plant
sensitivity to damage at various growth stages (i.e., the
best time to suppress hail) but do not reveal the extent
to which changes in the physical characteristics of the
hail will be reflected in yields.
The interest of the hail insurance industry in the
possibilities of deriving systematic relationships be-
tween storm characteristics and damage patterns also
led to their support of a number of studies by the Illinois
State Water Survey (ISWS) in the sixties. This research
showed that damage to corn and soybeans is reasonably
well correlated with the number oflarge (diameter over
one-half inch) stones, but that the strength of the
accompanying surface winds is an even better predictor
of crop damage and that even small stones can cause
extensive damage if driven by strong winds (Changnon,
1967). 8 Noting that crop losses to hail are jointly
determined by the physical intensity of the hailfall and
the crop's susceptibility to damage, the ISWS research-
ers developed a crop-specific damage intensity index
based on medium stormday loss-cost values for each
month of the growing season. 9 These calculations were
carried out for more than a dozen states in the Great
8 One result of the ISWS participation in Project Hailswath was the
observation that the thinner stands of row crops planted in semi-arid
regions sustain greater damage from a given amount of wind-driven
hail than do the thicker stands of Illinois, for example.
9 Loss-cost denotes the average dollar loss paid out per $100 of
coverage or liability issued: (losses/liability) x 100. When the
denominator is restricted to the liability on policies where claims were
paid, the term percent loss is more appropriate.
APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP
FIG. 1. Seasonal variations in storm intensity-crop susceptibility
indices for wheat in selected states. (After Changnon and Stout,
1%7.)
Plains and the Northwest. A sampling of the results is
shown in Fig. 1.
In 1964, the TRC Service Corporation issued a report
on damage produced by a variety of severe storms,
including hailstorms. Indexes of Hail Damage Potential
were calculated for most of the continental United
States using the formula
Jh = (F8 X Pr X D 8 )/An
where I his the index of damage potential for hail, F. the
frequency of hailstorms in the state, Pr the average
hailswath size in the region, D. the percent of residential
property value damaged within the average swath, and
Ar the area of the unit region (Collins and Howe, 1964). 10
To our knowledge, this study represents the only
systematic attempt to assess potential property losses
to hail at the national level. Its weakest link is the values
assigned to average swath size, a variable whose
distribution is still poorly understood. From the
standpoint of assessing the overall benefits of hail
suppression, of course, the omission of commercial
property and of vehicles is unfortunate, since damage to
such property may account for more than one-third of
all hail-caused property losses (Borland and Snyder,
1975b).
10 D., in turn, is arrived at by dividing the average damage per storm
by the median value of residential property in the state. The index
itself is in units of one-thousandth of I% of residential property values
for the unit region.
158 PART II: HAIL SUPPRESSION

In 1957, the Alpine Research Institute of the prehended with more limited perspective" (Fleagle,
U.S.S.R. began to study hail formation in the storm 1968).
systems of the Caucasus region. Their work led to the In 1968, a group oflegal researchers at the University
initiation of a large scale operational program of hail of Arizona completed a report to the Bureau of
suppression by means of ground-launched rockets Reclamation outlining the legal implications of sys-
which has continued to the present time. Claims of tematic management of atmospheric water resources.
substantial physical effectiveness, mainly based on Many of the issues dealt with in this report are relevant
comparisons with historical damage data, aroused the to programs of hail suppression. In the area of liability,
interest of American scientists and prompted several for example, the report discussed existing theories of
visits of inspection and evaluation (Atlas, 1965; Battan, liability (trespass, negligence, strict liability, and
1965). The enthusiasm of the Soviets was instrumental nuisance) and their failure to solve the problem facing a
in the decision to hold a First National Symposium on would-be plaintiff in an action claiming compensation
Hail Suppression at Boulder, Colorado, in October of for damages believed to have resulted from cloud
1965, and to fund Project Hailswath in the summer of seeding. 11 The necessity for a structure of interstate
1966. Although Hailswath was almost exclusively a compacts in the area of weather modification financing
physical experiment, it did bring together a wider range and regulation was pointed out and the section on
of organizations and personnel than had previously recommendations made a number of specific sugges-
been involved in a suppression experiment, and pointed tions for improving regulation and legislation at both the
up the essentiality of maintaining cooperative relations state and federal level (Davis, 1968).
with the residents of an area in which field experiments In 1969 the Interdepartmental Committee on Atmos-
are undertaken (Goyer et al., 1966). pheric Sciences (ICAS) received a report on the
In the meantime, an NSF grant had made it possible economic aspects of hail suppression prepared by the
for the National Center for Atmospheric Research Economic Research Service of the U. S. Department of
(NCAR) to host a Symposium on the Economic and Agriculture (USDA, 1969). The core of this study was
Social Aspects of Weather Modification. Held at the systematic use of insurance loss-cost ratios on a
Boulder in July of 1965, the meeting was billed as: "A national basis to develop average annual crop losses to
beginning at dealing with the deficiency in attention to hail for the nine crop reporting regions of the
human dimensions of weather modification" (Sewell, continental U. S. In terms of 1974 price levels, the
1966). Several of the papers presented at this sym- estimate of nationwide crop losses was slightly in
posium were relevant to the impacts of hail suppres- excess of $600 million. Some other significant conclu-
sion. For example, the operational applicability of sions were as follows:
benefit-cost analysis in the field of weather modification
was surveyed (Gutmanis and Goldner, 1966). Another • About 84% of crop damage by hail occurs in the
paper emphasized the similarity of the evaluation Plains, Corn Belt, Mountain and Lake States
problems posed by water resources projects and by regions.
weather modification programs, and pointed to the • The highest percentage of crop output damaged
importance of low price elasticities of demand for each year occurs in the Northern Plains (3.5%
agricultural output (Castle and Stoevener, 1966). An averaged over the region).
attorney reviewed weather modification case law and • Wheat, corn, soybeans, tobacco and cotton
its implications for the conduct of future field research account for the bulk of all crop losses.
involving cloud seeding (Morris, 1966). Public attitudes • About one-third of the tobacco, one-fourth of the
and opinions regarding the desirability and effective- wheat and one-fifth of the corn and soybeans are
ness of weather modification were also among the regularly insured.
topics discussed at this symposium, which considered • Estimating property losses due to hail is extremely
the results of several surveys of potential user groups difficult, but available evidence indicates an upper
(e.g. Saarinen, 1966). bound might be set at $125 million annually and a
During the academic year 1966-67, a series of lower bound at perhaps $30 million annually 12 •
seminars on weather modification were conducted at
the University of Washington which involved partici-
pants from various departments. An introductory paper 11 At that time, only two cases involving hail suppression had been
justified this interdisciplinary approach in these words: decided. In Anvil Orchard Co. v. Weather Modification, Inc. (1956),
''For discussion of weather modification it is important an allegation that seeding had caused flooding resulted in the granting
of a temporary injunction, lifted after one season. In Southwest
to bring together experts in the physical and biological Weather Research v. Rounsaville (1958) an injunction was sustained
sciences, statistics, economics, law and political on the grounds that seeding to suppress hail had reduced total
science, because these fields together encompass the precipitation.
12 These figures have also been expressed in terms of 1974 price

dimensions of the problem; it cannot be fully com- levels, rather than the current (i.e., 1966) dollar figures in the report.
STEWART W. BORLAND 159

• Assuming a 30% level of suppression effectiveness 1916 and has collected coverage and loss statistics in
and direct program costs of 15¢ per harvested acre essentially their present format since 1924 (Fosse,
direct benefit-cost ratios would range from abou~ 1975). During the 1960's these data were used to good
1. 7:1 in Kansas and Illinois to 9:1 in North Dakota effect in the work of the Illinois State Water Surveyt4
and 12:1 in North Carolina. (ISWS) and, as mentioned, provided core data for the
USDA report to ICAS described in Section 2.
Although this report took no account of indirect or
The relative situation of the various states and
community effects and did not attempt to analyse
regions with respect to various dimensions of their
possible reductions of the farmer's risk burden it
crop-hail statistics were examined in an ISWS study in
contained the most accurate estimates to that dat~ of
1971 (Changnon, 1972). Loss-cost plots for crop
the potential direct benefits from suppression. It
districts in the Midwest and Great Plains states were
recommended that areas with high benefit potential be
compared with both the loss frequency and the sum of
selected for intensive study of secondary impacts; that
paid losses for the same areas. This revealed that the
data on program costs be obtained by surveying
highest intensity of damage occurs in a north-south belt
commercial operations; that better estimates of prop-
along the east side of the Rocky Mountains, falls off
e~y losses be produced; and finally, that emphasis be
eastward to the Mississippi valley, then rises again in
shifted to a broader analysis of social and economic
the tobacco regions of the Carolinas. On the other hand,
effects including such aspects as the incidence of
the relatively low intensity of damage in the Corn Belt
benefits_ and costs and the evaluation of cost-sharing
states is offset by higher crop values per acre so that
alternatives. In short, this USDA report was entirely
Corn Belt states rank among the highest in terms of total
~omplementary to two related events that year which,
annual losses. The same study investigated the
m turn, led to a significant expansion of research on the
temporal variability of loss-cost ratios nationally and
impacts of hail suppression during the seventies.
for several states, concluding that there was no
The first of these actions was approval by the NSF
apparent correlation between the states, in the occur-
and ICAS, in April1969, of the operational plan for the
rence of high and low loss-years nor was there evidence
National Hail Research Experiment (NHRE) to be
of any kind of serial correlation in loss peaks which
carried out in northeast Colorado. The NHRE was
might enable farmers to reduce their average losses by
envisaged as a large scale, multi-year multi-
selective periods of self-insurance. The analysis also
institutional study which would ultimately p;oduce a
confirmed that the distribution of crop losses per
comprehensive evaluation of the technology of hail
storm-day is very highly skewed, with upward of 75%
suppression, spe,cifically including an assessment of its
of all losses occurring on less than 10% of hail-days.
anticipated societal and environmental impacts.
This characteristic of the hail phenomenon creates a
Then, in December of 1969, Congress passed the
s~vere problem of "peak-load capacity" for opera-
National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), a law with
tional programs of suppression.
such far-reaching effects that its role in the nation's
In the fall of 1971 the Economic Research Service
development is still difficult to assess, though more than
(ERS) of the USDA, in cooperation with the National
four years have elapsed and more than five thousand
Science Foundation, undertook to improve and update
impact statements have been filed. What NEPA made
exi~ting estimates ofU. S. crop losses to hail, widening
clear immediately, however, was that actions involving
their scope and increasing their precision. The results
the federal government could no longer be planned or
(Boone, 1974a, 1974b) represent the most accurate and
undertaken without due regard to their potentially
comprehensive estimates of average annual crop losses
significant influences on the environment, the economy,
to hail which are currently available. 15 State loss
and the social structure of the affected region.
estimate~ are presented for twenty-two major crops,
grouped mto nine regions. Table 1, adapted from these
3. Estimation of direct benefits
figures, sets out the losses by major crop categories for
a. Using insurance data the eighteen states whose annual losses exceed $10
million. It can be seen that total hail damage to these
The Crop-Hail Insurance Actuarial Association
crops amounts to approximately $680 million, at the
(CHIAA) is the largest of severaP 3 statistical and rating
price levels prevailing in 1973. In addition to these state
bureaus organized to serve the needs of the roughly 200
totals, the report includes estimates of annual loss per
companies who underwrite crop damage from hail in
harvested acre and per square mile of land, by county
the United States. Approximately 75% of all policies
are reported to the CHIAA, which began operations in
14 As, for example, in their use of crop-hail insurance records to

compare alternative statistical designs for the NHRE (Schickedanz

13 Others include the Crop Insurance Research Bureau of and Changnon, 1971).
Evanston, Illinois, and American Hail Management of Ormond 15 Based on crop-hail insurance data, they suffer from some
Beach, Florida. unavoidable limitations, which the author took care to spell out.
160 PART II: HAIL SUPPRESSION

TABLE 1. Estimated average hail losses by crop, for states with losses over $10 million (in millions).

Coarse Fruits,
State Wheat Corn Soybeans Cotton Tobacco grains vegetables Total

Texas 16.7 1.5 49.1 16.1 2.8 $ 86.2

Iowa .1 31.3 31.6 3.5 .3 66.8
Nebraska 16.8 27.2 4.1 4.7 7.7 60.5
Minnesota 2.3 17.6 18.7 7.5 2.2 48.3
Kansas 36.1 2.8 .9 4.7 1.3 45.8
N. Dakota 28.8 .6 .8 12.5 1.6 44.3
N. Carolina .2 .8 .3 .5 24.2 .1 1.9 28.0
Illinois 1.2 12.1 12.8 .5 .9 27.5
S. Dakota 8.9 9.2 1.6 7.6 .1 27.4
Colorado 14.4 4.1 2.6 5.9 27.0
Montana 16.7 .1 5.0 2.2 24.0
Oklahoma 15.7 .2 .1 2.7 3.3 22.0
Kentucky .1 .4 15.9 .1 .3 16.8
Missouri 1.8 4.7 5.2 1.4 .3 .1 .7 14.2
S. Carolina .1 .6 1.1 1.7 6.4 .1 2.3 12.3
Idaho 2.6 .1 1.2 7.6 11.5
California .2 .1 .5 1.8 8.5 11.1
Indiana .9 3.8 4.7 .4 .3 .7 10.8
Others 8.4 7.8 7.6 1~.3 17.9 6.2 29.8 95.5

Totals 172.0 123.5 91.0 74.2 65.1 77.9 76.8 $680.0

Source: Adapted from Boone (1974a). All figures in terms of 1973 price levels.

and by major crop, for a ten-state sample area chosen to
include relatively high-loss states in several different
regions. 16 The usefulness of these latter figures in the
planning of large-scale suppression programs becomes
clear when one thinks about the variation in direct
benefit-cost ratios associated with annual losses per
square mile which vary from $3 (Cherry County) to
$2119 (Phelps County) within the borders of a single
state (Nebraska).
In 1956, two organizations, designed to grapple with
the area's severe hail problem from different points of
view, were established in the Canadian province of
Alberta. The Alberta Weather Modification Co-
Operative (A WMC) was formed to finance and manage
operational suppression programs through contracts
with commercial modifiers. The Alberta Hail Studies
(ALHAS) was a research-oriented group, with repre-
sentation from the provincial and federal Research
Council, the federal Meteorological Service and McGill
University. The personnel associated with these
organizations have made a significant contribution to
our knowledge of the hail phenomenon. In the area of
socio-economic impacts, statistics from the Alberta
Hail Insurance Board were used to estimate average
annual crop losses to hail, both in the townships
covered by the AWMC operational programs and for
the entire province. Combining these figures with the
actual costs of the AWMC program on the one hand,
and with estimated costs for a hypothetical province-
wide program on the other, produced benefit-cost ratios
for various levels of suppression effectiveness. For the
16 States selected for study at the county level were Colorado,
Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, North Carolina,
AWMC region, an assumed effectiveness of 5%
produced a benefit-to-cost ratio of2: 1, which increased
to 8:1 if suppression were 20% effective. Benefit-cost
ratios estimated for the entire province were almost
identical (Peterson, 1971),17 Hail insurance loss-cost
ratios (called loss/risk in Alberta) are similar to those in
the high hail-intensity portions of the U. S. Great
Plains, such as South Dakota, Kansas, and Colorado,
implying average annual losses to hail of about 5% of
the total value of field crops. In addition (as in the
United States) there are smaller areas within the
province for which the long-run loss-cost ratio is as high
as 17%, so that financial disaster can easily result from a
"run" of high-hail seasons (Wojtiw and Summers,
1972).
b. The land-value approach
Since the loss statistics collected by the crop-hail
insurance industry are a key factor in rate-making,
there is a strong incentive to maintain their accuracy.
Nevertheless, since only 10-20% ofthe total value of
the major crops is insured against hail, extrapolating all
losses from data on insured losses does have serious
limitations. 18 These shortcomings of insurance data for
estimating crop losses are compounded when yield
reductions result from insufficient moisture. However,
the negative effects of relatively low amounts of rainfall
17 The equality of the benefit-cost ratios estimated for the region of
operation with those for the province would appear to result from a
balancing of two offsetting factors. While hail intensity is greater in
the AWMC townships than in the province as a whole, costs
estimated for the larger program undoubtedly reflected economies to
scale of operations (see Section 4).
18 These limitations are described in some detail on pp. 2-6 ofthe

North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming. USDA report referred to in Section 2 (Boone, 1974a).
STEWART W. BORLAND
TABLE 2. Direct benefits to agriculture of hail suppression
and precipitation augmentation.
Gain in value per
cropland acre
Dollars Percent
Estimated effects on cropland values of
20% suppression effectiveness in high-
hail areas
From Land Value Study: $14.00 (7.6%)
From Crop-Hail Insurance Records: $ 7.00 (3.8%)
Estimated effects on cropland values of
5% increase in total precipitation in
high-hail areas if received during early
growing season
From Land Value Study: $10.00 (5.5%)
From Field Plot Experiments: $12.00 (6.6%)
Source: Adapted from Borland and Snyder (1975a).
and/or of consistently high frequency and intensity of
hail events will reduce the value of affected cropland
and ultimately be reflected in transaction prices. With
this hypothesis in mind, two studies were undertaken in
the early seventies to estimate the effect of precipitation
differences on cropland values (Johnson and Haigh,
1970; Schleusener and Boyd, 1972). Though these
studies identified plausible relationships between land
values and precipitation variables, neither included a
variable for hail and both drew their land values from
the Census of Agriculture rather than from actual
sale-purchase documents. In 1973, therefore, NCAR
staff collected detailed data at county court houses on
almost 600 cropland transactions, about half of them in
the semi-arid, high-hail portions of northeast Colorado
and southwest Nebraska, with the remainder in the
wetter, less hail-prone counties of northeast Nebraska.
This information was analysed along with weather
station records, to produce estimates of the degree to
which cropland values are affected by differences in
weather variables, soil quality, and certain other factors
such as tax rates, which affect the income stream
obtainable from the land. Table 2 summarizes some
results of this study, which indicated that estimates of
crop damage to hail based on insurance data are too
low .19 The results also show that a beneficial program of
hail suppression must avoid reducing total precipitation
in the early part of the growing season, since the value
of a 20% reduction in hail damage would be approxi-
mately offset by a 5% reduction in May-June rainfall
(Borland and Snyder, 1975a). 20
19 This conclusion is not surprising in the light of two sources of
downward bias in insurance-based estimates: (a) the effect of'' excess
over" or deductible provisions in many policies and (b) the failure of
that estimating procedure to assign a value to reductions in the
farmers' burden of risk.
20 It should be kept in mind that increases in late-season rainfall are
costly and undesirable. For the small grains, hail suppression is of
most value during the weeks of late ripening when its beneficial
effects could easily be negated if accompanied by large increases in
precipitation.
161
When expressed in terms of percentage increases in
ultimate yield, it should be noted that a constant
percentage of yield implies a gradual increase in, say,
bushels per acre, since ''normal'' yields are expected to
continue their historical upward trend, albeit at a
somewhat lower rate. Even more important is the fact
that changes in the value of additional output are
meaningful only when compared in terms of constant
dollars (i.e. corrected for fluctuations in the overall
price level). Such comparisons provide a measure of the
changes over time in society's valuation of the gross di-
rect benefits of output increases which might result from
hail suppression. From the farmer's perspective, however,
a more sensitive indicator of his incentive to investigate
and adopt new output-increasing techniques is the
relationship between output prices and the costs of his
inputs. Fig. 2 shows the rapid rise in the ratio of these
two sets of prices which has taken place since 1972
(reversing an earlier decline) but which has recently
levelled off. Few knowledgeable people expect this
ratio to soon return to the low levels of the late sixties,
which suggests that if a credibly effective technique of
hail suppression could be developed during the next few
years, it would generate great interest and support in
the farming community.
c. Crop damage function studies
When atmospheric scientists talk about the effec-
tiveness of hail suppression they are usually thinking in
terms of some measure of intensity frequency, or areal
extent, or perhaps of a measure which reflects a
combination of these, such as mass of ice or total impact
energy integrated over specified limits of space and
time. But what interests the farmer (and the taxpaying
consumer) is effectiveness in terms of reduced crop
damage and resulting increases in yield. Unfortunately,
the relationships between the physical measures of
hailfall and their effects on ultimate crop yields are both
complex and multi-dimensional.
As mentioned in Section 2, research in the simulation
of crop damage to hail by artificial means has been
supported by the crop-hail insurance industry since the
INDEX RATIO
130r---r---.---,---.----r---r---.---.----r-~
,-
12Dr-----------------------------------~/--4
I
70 74
FIG. 2. Annual farm price index ratio of crop prices received to
production costs paid (1967 = 100). Dashed lines based on 6-month
average to mid-1974. [Source: USDC (1973) and USDC (1974).]
162
TABLE 3. Correlation coefficients between hail damage
and various hailfall parameters.
Correlation coefficient
with damage
1956-1969 1971-1972
Parameter Sample Sample
Impact energy (total)
Impact energy (vertical)
Hail size (maximum)
0.40
0.52
Hail size (modal) 0.50
Mass per unit area 0.49
Number of stones per unit area 0.002
Wind speed
Source: Adapted from Summers and Wojtiw (1971) and Wojtiw
and Renick (1973).
forties. Studies of yield reductions caused by deliber-
ately damaging plants did make it possible for insurance
appraisers to more accurately estimate yield losses
when similar damage resulted from a hailstorm, but
shed no light on the extent to which such damage might
be reduced by altering certain characteristics of the
hail. In the seventies, a number of experiments were
conducted in which plants were damaged by ice-
throwing machines (Peck, 1975). However, to our
knowledge, none of these machines was constructed
or operated in a manner which would allow for
measuring the size range, number, or impact velocity of
the ice particles, nor were the ''charges'' of crushed ice
treated to more closely resemble the size and shape of
natural hail. Section 8 briefly describes a current study
designed to overcome some of these shortcomings.
In 1971, the Research Council of Alberta reported the
results from analysing over 5000 hail-damage reports 21
received from voluntary farmer-observers over the
period 1956-1969 (Summers and Wojtiw, 1971). The
farmers recorded subjective estimates of crop damage
in five descriptive categories along with observations
on maximum and modal stone size, average depth of
stones on the ground, and incidence of soft hail. The
second column of Table 3 shows the partial correlation
coefficients between percentage of damage reported
and certain of the observed and derived parameters of
the hailfall. Maximum stone size and total mass appear
to be reasonably good indicators of damage while the
number of stones seems to be of negligible value for this
purpose.
A subsequent report (Wojtiw and Renick, 1973),
based on 2042 hail report cards obtained in 1971 and
1972, included an analysis of wind speed observations
in four descriptive categories. The partial correlation
coefficients in the third column of Table 3 are somewhat
higher for impact energy and slightly lower for modal
stone size than those derived from the earlier sample.
21This figure of 5000 may be misleading unless one knows that
about 2000 of these were reports of nil damage.
PART II: HAIL SUPPRESSION
t
100~--...--- ,--..---,---,,,----....---.---- -,,----,----,
80f- /oo
0 0
oo Severe Winds
Strong Winds
/
0.59
0.54
0.50
o Moderate Winds
6 Light Winds (If 0 0
0.44
~ 40 ,1(~6
~roe ~~o----o~ .-:::;::.'51~
0/
0.35
_ _)
0
~~a-a--
0 10-2 10-1 1oo 10 1 102 103
IMPACT ENERGY (IT)
FIG. 3. Mean crop damage versus impact energy for various wind
speed categories. [Source: Wojtiw and Renick (1973).]
Table 3 also shows a correlation coefficient for wind
speed of0.35, a value which compares with 0.56 for the
multiple correlation coefficient of a prediction equation
including both windspeed category ( W) and mean
hailstone radius in centimeters (R ):
Percent crop damage = 16.3 + 9.5 W -1; 29.07 R.
As part of the analysis, the calculated impact energies
were stratified by windspeed categories to derive
Fig. 3, which graphically portrays the increase in
crop damage when hailfall of given impact energy is
accompanied by higher surface winds.
In 1971, the Illinois State Water Survey analysed
ninety-two hailpads adjacent to which they were able to
obtain the details of insured damage claims for crop
losses occurring at the time the pads were impacted
(Changnon, 1971). 22 The data points were stratified by
crop, and scatter diagrams were drawn plotting per~ent
losses against several hailfall parameters. No relation-
ship was found between losses and the total number of
stones per pad but losses were well related to the
number of stones with diameters over 0.25 inch, and to
the impact energy. It was also noted that hailfall
parameters which related well to losses for wheat were
not necessarily good indicators ofloss for soybeans and
com. The correlation coefficients calculated for the
"best" indicator for each crop ranged as high as 0.90.
The Alberta crop damage function studies suffer from
the unavoidable subjectivity embodied in their method
of collecting the raw data. Both the damage figures and
22 The pads were set out during the growing season of 1967
through 1969; although 967 pads we~e impacted, loss data on
adjacent crops (within 200 ft) were avadable for only 92 of them.
STEWART W. BORLAND
the measures of hail parameters were "eyeball"
estimates. The ISWS investigators overcame this
shortcoming, but at the cost of introducing small sample
problems (e.g. 34 data points on wheat and fewer on the
other two crops). This is not to deny the value of either
of these studies, but rather to explain the motivation for
the fairly extensive work currently being done in the
hopes of developing more precise relationships. A brief
description of these efforts appears in Section 8.
d. Reduction of property damage
Estimates of crop and property losses due to severe
local storms in Illinois from 1950-1957 were collected
by the staff of the Illinois State Water Survey
(Changnon, 1972). They acknowledged that their data
on property losses had to be pieced together from a
variety of sources 23 and that: ''This lack of data on
property-hail loss is one of the key problems in an
economic analysis of hail loss." Nevertheless, the
information from the Illinois survey of 1950-1957
losses and from an examination of 18 of the most severe
summer hailstorms which occurred in the state over the
period 1915-1950 was used to derive a ratio of crop
losses to property losses of approximately 9:1. There is,
of course, no reason to suppose that this ratio, even if
true for Illinois, would also apply in other areas with
different cropping and urbanization patterns. Still,
because it was the only information available, the ratio
has frequently been applied to crop values, both in
other states and nationally, in an effort to come up with
a dollar value for property losses to hail without doing
the considerable amount of work required to arrive at
more precise figures.
In an article largely devoted to crop losses (Wojtiw
and Summers, 1972) some specific examples of
property damages from hail in Alberta are cited. Three
examples of heavy losses to particular urban areas in
the years 1969-1971 are given to support the conclusion
that provincial property losses to hail average from $1
million to $5 million annually. This range of damage
would represent from 5% to 23% of estimated direct
crop losses to hail.
As mentioned in Section 2, one prerequisite for a
comprehensive evaluation of property losses to hail is a
more precise delineation of an average or typical
hailswath, on a regional basis. In the course of their
work on the design for a hail suppression experiment in
Illinois, the ISWS has carried out several investigations
of the time-space variability of damaging hailstreaks
(e.g. Changnon and Towery, 1972). These have
23 Property losses to hail are insured as one of several hazards
associated with severe storms under the category of "extended
coverage." Therefore, the records do not identify claims specific to
hail damage.
163
produced estimates of average and median hailstreak
sizes which appear to be accurate enough to be used in
deriving meaningful estimates of hail-caused property
losses in the Midwest. For other hail-prone regions of
the nation, the available information on hailstreak sizes
has not been thoroughly analysed.
4. Program costs, scale and structure
In the summer of 1973, NCAR staff interviewed key
personnel in all seven hail suppression programs
operating in the Great Plains. To our knowledge, this
study represents the only comprehensive comparative
investigation to date of the organization, financing,
operations and structure of operational hail suppression
programs in the U. S. and Canada. The remainder of
this section summarizes some of the information
collected and derives some implications from the
material in NCAR's report to the Economic Research
Service of the USDA (Borland et al., 1974).
Table 4lists the seven programs and compares them
with respect to eight fundamental features of their
operations. During the course of the work, data were
gathered which characterized each program and its
operational area on the basis of five climatological
variables, six dimensions of the area's crops and farms,
four descriptors of the physical constraints on suppres-
sion operations, and five other variables which included
the extent of associated research, the qualifications of
personnel and the program's access to tax funds. Some
conclusions of the study were:
• "success" 24 of a hail suppression program is
closely related to an area's long-run hail and pre-
cipitation experience, but is little influenced by
transitory occurrences of unusual weather (e.g.,
the Rapid City flood).
• a substantial effort in the areas of research and
evaluation is highly correlated with the "success"
of a program.
• only the South Dakota and Alberta programs were
large enough to capture the available economies of
scale in the provision of cloud-seeding services
since the minimum efficient size is about 5 million
acres (see Fig. 4).
• because of the large size of an efficient program
and the potential importance of "downwind"
effects there is a need to investigate mechanisms
for interstate cooperation in the planning and
financing of weather modification programs.
• the "public good" nature of cloud-seeding serv-
ices and the associated ''free rider'' problems
24 In this context, "success" does not reflect physical effectiveness
in reducing crop and/or property damage from hail, but refers only to
program viability and growth.
164 PART II: HAIL SUPPRESSION

TABLE 4. Basic features of the programs.

Areal
Extent
Pur- (milln. Evaluation Opposi-
Program Origin Participation pose Financing acres) (phys. eff.) tion Regulation

Alberta 1956. In ADA, ARC, HS ADA; $950,000. 6 Regular by ARC. Negligible Provincial
present MSC. statute.
form, 1973.

Colorado 1951 GG; Barley Growers, HS AVG; $98,000. 4 Only by seeding Strong DNR, li-
(San Luis 1966 AC. Coors Brewing PS (?) contractor. (CPNR) cense &
Valley) Co. permits
(1972 law).

North Dakota 1961 in 1 Counties, HS 2-mil CL, + vol- 3 None. Negligible NDAC&
(Bowman- county; SDSMT (tech- PA untary 2d:/acre; CWMA
Slope) 1964 in 4 nical advice). $54,000. (1%9 law).
counties.

North Dakota 1951 GG; 1%2 Counties, HS Voluntary before 4 Regular through Negligible NDAC&
(Tri-County) AC in 1 BUREC PA 1969, 2-mil CL 1972; none CWMA
county. (69-72), since 1969; since. (1969 law).
1970 in 3 SDSMT, $73,000.
counties. USAF (radar).
South Dakota 1951 GG; Counties, HS 1-millevy plus 28 Occasional by Negligible SDDWM,
1963 AC. SDDWM, PA state appropria- (42 ctys.) BUREC & State Com-
BUREC, tions $800,000. SDSMT. mission
NWS, SCS, app't. by
NWC. Governor,
CWMA
(1963 law).

Texas (BWI) 1973 AC Farmers & local HS VC 64d: per cui- Only by seeding Growing TWDB
(Split from businessmen. tivated acre contractor (FRNW) (licenses &
PWIA). + VC from permits).
businesses.

Texas (PWIA) 1970 AC. Farmers & local HS VC 64¢ per cul- None to date Growing TWDB
businessmen. tivated acre (but now pro- (FRNW) (licenses &
+ VC from posed) permits).
businesses.

Abbreviation Full name or description

AC Aircraft (equipped for cloud seeding)
ADA Alberta Department of Agriculture
ARC Alberta Research Council
AVG Assessment determined by Valley Growers Association based on crop allotments
BUREC Bureau of Reclamation, U.S. Dept. of the Interior
BWI Better Weather, Incorporated, Texas
CL County Property Tax Levy
CPNR Citizens for the Protection of Natural Resources
CWMA County Weather Modification Authority
DNR Department of Natural Resources, State of Colorado
FRNW Farmers and Ranchers for Natural Weather
GG Ground Generators (for cloud seeding)
HS Hail Suppression
MSC Meteorological Service of Canada
NDAC North Dakota Aeronautics Commission, Pierre, N.D.
NWC Naval Weapons Center, China Lake, Calif.
NWS National Weather Service
PA Precipitation Augmentation
PS Precipitation Suppression
PWIA Plains Weather Improvement Association, Texas
scs Soil Conservation Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture
SDDWM South Dakota Division of Weather Modification
SDSMT South Dakota School of Mines and Technology, Rapid City, S.D.
TWDB Texas Water Development Board, Austin, Texas.
USAF U.S. Air Force
vc Voluntary Contributions
Source: Borland et al. (1974).
STEWART W. BORLAND 165

30.----.---,,---,----.----.----.----.---~
5. Secondary and indirect effects
NO. a. Ecological impacts
1,2 Texas
3 South Dakota
4,9 Alberta
Long-term operational programs of hail suppression
5 Colorado may be expected to influence the ecosystem in three
6 Illinois
7,8 North Dakota
distinct ways. First, effective suppression creates an
10 Colorado-Kansas-Nebraskc incentive to shift the margins of cultivation, thus
II South Dakota
increasing the geographic extent of monocultural
communities and reducing natural ecological diversity.
The extent to which this might occur is discussed in
Section 5b. Second, there is the effect of a sustained
0
5 alteration in the precipitation regime, a problem which
7x x has mainly been investigated in the context of programs
oL-~8~---~'---L--~~----~---L--~L-~
o ~ ro ~ ~ to augment precipitation rather than specifically to
MILLIONS OF ACRES IN "PROTECTED" AREA suppress hail. Fortunately, the scanty evidence availa-
FIG. 4. Nature of scale relationship for operational hail suppres-
ble seems to suggest that seeding to suppress hail is
sion. Program costs derived from actual project budgets, except costs more likely to increase total precipitation than to reduce
of Hypothetical Operational Area (HOA) program (indicated by the it (e.g., NHRE, 1974) so that assessments which assume
triangle) which were "estimated." Costs for the two North Dakota
programs (indicated by X's) do not include value of volunteer staff. rainfall increases become relevant and are briefly
discussed below. Third, there are the complex ways in
make it virtually impossible to maintain stable which seeding agents can accumulate and react with
financial support for a program without some form various components of the ecosystem.
of taxing authority. An overview of the potential effects of modifying the
precipitation regime on Northern Plains grasslands was
In addition to the foregoing study of operating recently drafted for the Montana Department of
programs, NCAR staff have structured the elements of Natural Resources and Conservation (Perry, 1975). It
a hypothetical suppression program capable of operat- discusses effects on primary and secondary production,
ing over a 25 million-acre, 35-county region encompass- on changes in species, and on plant pathogens. The
ing portions of northeast Colorado, southwest Ne- hydrologic impacts of increased precipitation are also
braska, and northwest Kansas. Facilites envisaged of concern and have been evaluated from time to time in
include 6 or 7 field sites, each sharing the services of
certain backup facilities supplied from a central
COST COST IN PERCENT OF
headquarters. This idealized scheme is the basis for CATEGORY $PER ACRE TOTAL COST
itemized cost figures on a program which would
approach optimality both in terms of size and of its Seed 5.50
complement of facilities and personnel. In Fig. 4, this
hypothetical program is indicated by the triangle Fertilizer 6.86
numbered 10. Its direct operational costs are presently
estimated at 9¢ per acre of total land area or about 35¢ Tractor and
7.93 11.0%
Equipment
per planted acre.
Recently, there have been growing indications that Labor and
15.01 20.9%
Custom Work
an effective program of hail suppression on the Great
Plains may require more sophisticated and expensive Land Taxes 5.85
equipment than is presently in use in order to respond
Interest on
with sufficient speed to new storm developments and to Investment
22.41 31.2%
carry out the real-time analyses required for appropri-
Hail Insurance
ate targeting of the seeding material (e.g. Browning and (if carried)
8.00 11.1%
Foote, 1975). Such requirements could easily increase Contribution to
the present direct cost estimates to between 50¢ and $1 Weather Modification 0.30 (1.00) 0.4%@ $0.30; 1.4%@ $1.00
Program
per planted acre. In this regard, Fig. 5 shows that
even at $1 per acre, the cost of a suppression program is TOTAL COSTS $71.86
small in comparison to the cost of other productive FIG. 5. Cost components, fallow winter wheat (NE
inputs. Colorado, 1973).
166
such journals as the Water Resources Bulletin (e.g.
Seely and DeCoursey, 1975). The report of an extensive
study carried out at Montana State University for the
Bureau of Reclamation also contains a section devoted
to the impacts of induced rainfall on surface hydrology
(Donahue and Ashley, 1973). Conclusions from these
studies are in qualitative terms and very little quantita-
tive material is available. However, an interesting
exercise in computer simulation of grassland responses
to a variety of precipitation changes associated with hail
suppression was recently carried out using a detailed
ecosystem model developed in the U. S Interna-
tional Biological Program's Grassland Biome project
(Parton and Smith, 1974). These investigations all lend
support to a preliminary conclusion that precipitation
increases in the range likely to result from hail
suppression programs will induce modest increases in
both the primary and secondary production of grass-
land areas and are unlikely to add significantly to
problems created by runoff and erosion.
While organic compounds have been seriously
considered for use in precipitation augmentation
programs, seeding for hail suppression has, thus far,
almost exclusively been done with silver iodide. The
probable effects of sustained seeding with silver iodide
have been the subject of several investigations by C. F.
Cooper (e.g. Cooper and Jolly, 1970; Cooper, 1973).
His conclusions have alleviated concern regarding the
likelihood of any immediate damage to the biosphere,
but have emphasized the need for continuous monitor-
ing of seeded areas and for laboratory research into the
long-run effects of silver uptake on the growth and
health of particular organisms. Biologists at Montana
State University have undertaken studies on the effects
of silver compounds on microorganisms (e.g. Weaver
and Klarich, 1973) while similar work has been carried
out at Colorado State University (e.g. Klein and
Molise, 1974). The NHRE has sponsored a continuous
monitoring of the ecosystem in and adjacent to its
experimental area in northeastern Colorado and has
received detailed annual reports of silver concentra-
tions at various aquatic and terrestrial sites throughout
the area (e.g. Klein, Striffler and Teller, 1975). These
various studies have shown that silver iodide burn
complex is taken up through the soil by a wide variety of
plants. However, no harmful effects on either plants or
microorganisms have been observed even from soils
near former ground generator sites with silver concen-
trations two and three orders of magnitude larger than
mean background levels. In addition, the monitoring of
silver concentrations during four years in the NHRE
area has revealed no statistically significant year-to-
year increase in mean observed levels of silver.
The possibility that silver iodide might concentrate
along the food chain has been explored by feeding
PART II: HAIL SUPPRESSION
special diets to rabbits and goats (Bailey, Jones and
Roy, 1973) and is currently under intensive investiga-
tion in relation to a primary consumer (grasshoppers) at
the University of Wyoming (Pfadt, 1975). The principal
conclusion to be drawn at this time from all of the
foregoing studies is that sustained seeding with silver
iodide at the rates presently used for hail suppression is
unlikely to result in any significant changes in the
ecosystem, either beneficial or adverse.
b. Regional economic shifts
Although hail suppression per se would not be
economically attractive to owners and operators of
pasture and rangeland, if seeding for this purpose in fact
served to increase total precipitation, a considerable
economic benefit could result in terms of increased
forage production. Assuming seeding costs of 6¢ per
acre, a study done at the South Dakota School of Mines
and Technology arrived at a benefit-to-cost ratio of
5.6:1 associated with the additional animal unit days of
grazing on wild hay provided by an extra half-inch of
growing season precipitation in South Dakota. Even
higher benefit-cost ratios were calculated for areas in
Kansas (Hausle, 1971).
Income losses to hail in a particular hail-prone region
do not, of course, end with the value ofthe initial yield
reduction. The regional income stream is also reduced
by the subsequent rounds of spending which do not take
place as the farmers cut back on their local purchases of
goods and services. Estimates of this "multiplier"
effect, derived from input-output models constructed
for a number of non-urbanized regions, suggest that the
appropriate values for Type II (direct, indirect and
induced income change) multipliers for initial changes
in the output ofthe primary agriculture sector are about
3.0 to 3.5 (Skold and Greer, 1970; Mitchell, 1971). This
means that an initial crop loss valued at $1 eventually
results in a reduction in the regional income stream of
about $3. It must be kept in mind, however, that while
this income loss can hurt residents of the affected
region, it does not necessarily imply that the loss to the
national economy is greater than the value of the initial
crop loss. For that $1 which would have come to the
region as payment for the lost output will almost surely
be spent elsewhere, thus entering the income stream of
another region which produces a different or substitute
product. 25
Another type of indirect economic loss attributable to
hail is more subtle. It results from the nature of the
25 The multiplier effect will result in a national as well as a local loss
if the impacted region has higher levels of unemployed resources
(capital and/or labor) than the nation as a whole. In such cases, the
national benefits from utilizing otherwise idle resources should be
separately estimated.
STEWART W. BORLAND 167

farmer's production decisions in the face of the TABLE 5. Estimated price effects of 5% output
additional uncertainty associated with the risk of large increases in 35-county region.
but unpredictable losses from the hail hazard. The usual Percent price
reaction is to search for a hedge against this uncertainty Estimated Regional Derived reduction for
which may take the form of additional diversity in u.s. output regional 5% output
elasticity (%of U.S.) elasticity increase
product mix or land holdings, or may show up in the
purchase of insurance or the accumulation of larger Winter
wheat -.25 6.4 -3.7 1.35
liquid assets. To the extent that any of these Corn grain -.4 1.3 -20.0 0.25
adjustments are motivated by the desire to hedge Barley -.5 l.O -25.0 0.20
Oats -.2 <2.0 -10.0 0.50
against risk, they will lead to lower production Rye -.4 2.0 -15.0 0.33
intensity, less production and lower long-term profits. Grain
The existence of such losses as part of the hail problem sorghums -.6 7.3 -7.0 0.71
Alfalfa hay -.5 l.O -25.0 0.20
has been recognized for a number of years (see, e.g. Soybeans -.8 <2.0 -40.0 0.12
Petersen, 1971), but quantification awaits the acquisi- Sugar beets -.7 12.0 -5.8 0.86
tion of better information on the reactions to risk ofthe
relevant farm population.
may help explain why some farmers are not particularly
In Section 3b it was stated that the market value of
enthusiastic about the notion of developing effective
the additional output resulting from reduced hail
suppression techniques.
damage is a reasonable approximation of society's
To the extent that effective hail suppression reduces
valuation of the gross benefits from suppression. One of
unit costs of production more than it reduces selling
the indirect effects of effective suppression, however,
prices, it will provide an incentive to expand output._ In
is a change in the price of the output due to the increased
terms ofland use, this is likely to involve the conversiOn
supply. For small areas, this change will be small
of some grass and pasture land into cropland, as well as
enough to be safely ignored. But the price effect grows
some shifts into the more hail-sensitive crops. A
progressively more significant as one enlarges the area
quantitative estimate of the extent to which such shifts
over which the increased yield is to be obtained. To put
might take place has been done as part of the USDA
the matter in perspective, Table 5 presents some
estimates of the price elasticity of demand26 for various project discussed in Section 3a. The investigators
estimated shifts in cropping patterns between ten Land
crops applicable to the output of a 35-county (40 000
mi2) region in northeast Colorado, southwest Nebraska Resource Areas encompassing the state of Nebraska.
Starting with a minimum cost distribution of crops
and northwest Kansas over which a large-scale
throughout the ten sub-areas of the state, their model
program of hail suppression could be operated. The
produced alternative minimum cost cropping patte~ns
table shows that for most of these crops, even a 5%
in response to changed costs and revenues resultmg
increase in output would have negligible price effects,
from hail suppression programs with assumed effec-
although for sorghum and sugar beets the price
tiveness levels of 10%, 25%, and 50%. Results include
reduction approaches 1% and exceeds 1% for wheat.
estimates of percentage shifts by sub-area and crop,
These price effects tend to become larger if one thinks
in terms of effective suppression on a multi-state scale together with the number of acres involved. In most
cases the predicted shifts are small (less than 1%)
and it then becomes a matter of some interest to identify
although percentage changes in excess of 3% (both
who stands to lose and who might gain from the lower
prices. positive and negative) did occur in some areas. The
report on this work is still in draft form (Boone, 1975)
Consumers of the farm products involved will be
but since the frequency and intensity of hail do vary
unambiguous gainers. Owners of farmland in regions
widely across the state of Nebraska (from under two
which produce these crops but where hail is of little
hail-days per year to over five) it seems reasonable to
importance (or suppression is somehow not feasible)
draw a preliminary conclusion that intra-state shifts in
will suffer some loss. Owners of farmland in regions
cropping patterns in response to hail suppression would
where suppression is highly effective will gain in the
not be large enough to create any serious problems of
short run, but over a period of years that gain will be
adjustment in the marketing of inputs and outputs, nor
eroded through competition and in the long run the
in the ecological equilibrium.
consumer is apt to be the sole beneficiary. That, of
course, is by no means an undesirable outcome, but it
c. Extra-area influences

26 Defined as the ratio of the percentage change in quantity

While the economic, social, and legal implications of
demanded associated with a specified percentage change in the non-negligible extra-area physical effects of seeding to
market price (i.e., {~Q/Q}I{.iPIP}). The sign is normally negative. suppress hail in some specified target area have been
168 PART II: HAIL SUPPRESSION

the subject of much speculation, little has been done in 4) Respondents in crop counties tended to be more
the way of systematic research and/or analysis. There favorable to weather modification than those from
are at least three reasons for this state of affairs. First, range counties.
the evidence gathered to date suggests that extra-area In 1971, a year before the NHRE field experiments
effects are much smaller than the target-area effects, began, an investigation was begun of the social impact
themselves extremely difficult to detect amidst the high of this large scale suppression experiment. Basic data
variability of the natural phenomena. Second, the most were gathered from repeated interviews of a sample of
significant potential effect is that of a change in approximately 200 residents of northeast Colorado,
precipitation, which, if it occurs at all, appears to be an divided into a target group (in the NHRE experimental
increase. Since this outcome is generally regarded as area) and two control groups, one nearby and the
favorable, the possibility does not excite as much second living about 100 miles to the southeast of the
interest as would evidence of substantial decreases. NHRE area. This monitoring of public opinion now
Finally, the task of assessing the range of impacts spans a four-year period, and has enabled the research-
which may result from initial changes within the target ers to reach some tentative conclusions (Krane and
area itself has been of more than sufficient magnitude to Haas, 1974a):
occupy the time of those social scientists who are
interested in the problems and potential of weather 1) The NHRE has enjoyed a high level of public
modification. support, with approximately 70% favoring the experi-
Nevertheless, there is no doubt that future programs ment and fewer than 10% expressing opposition.
of weather modification ought to provide in their design 2) Favorableness toward the experiment increases
for the measurement and evaluation of extra-area with increased knowledge of its operations and objec-
impacts. In this connection it should be noted that an tives and is associated with favorable attitudes towards
important adjunct of the NHRE is a study of possible cloud seeding in general.
"downwind" effects being carried out at Colorado 3) Less than 20% of the respondents believe they
State University under the direction ofL. 0. Grant and have actually received benefits from the experiment,
G. W. Brier. These researchers are utilizing precipita- but on the other hand, fewer than 3% perceive any loss.
tion records, satellite photography, aircraft sampling 4) Local residents believe they should have a voice
and a network of ground observers in an effort to detect in decisions about cloud seeding programs which may
and quantify extra-area effects from seeding in the affect them.
NHRE experimental area.
Results from the initial survey of public opinion in
6. Social impacts and responses 1971 were instrumental in the decision to establish a
Citizens' Council on Hail Research, whose fourteen
In 1972, an investigation was conducted among members include prominent farmers and local
farmers and ranchers in eastern Montana to determine businessmen living in and near the NHRE experimental
the extent of knowledge possessed about weather area. NHRE scientists meet regularly with the Council
modification and the attitudes and expectations respect- to exchange information regarding the operations of the
ing it. Interviews were held with 348 randomly selected field experiment and its results. While the Council does
respondents, stratified according to their location in not act as a decision-making body, the views of its
counties identified as containing mostly cropland or members and their perceptions of community re-
being predominantly rangeland. The report, made to sponses to planned and ongoing activities do influence
the Bureau of Reclamation, emphasized the following the decision process.
findings (Larson, 1973): In addition to their continuing investigation in
1) Most respondents (68%) stated that they had connection with the NHRE, the same group of
inadequate knowledge on which to make decisions sociologists have conducted surveys and carried out
about programs of weather modification. analyses on various types of weather modification
2) While 32% were opposed to the suggestion of programs in five other states. The following paragraphs
initiating a commercial cloud seeding program in their are largely based on reports of their work in South
county, only 10% opposed the idea of a research Dakota (Farhar, 1974), and Illinois (Krane and Haas,
experiment. 1974b), and on a recent summary of their findings
3) A majority believed that cloud seeding would (Haas, 1974).
benefit them, but their expectations concerning poten- Both the structure of any future operational programs
tial yield effects (of additional rainfall) exceeded and the speed with which techniques of hail suppression
estimates made by agronomists and may therefore have are likely to be adopted depend to a considerable degree
been overly optimistic. on the strength of belief in their effectiveness, along
STEWART W. BORLAND 169

TABLE 6. Belief in efficacy of cloud seeding. TABLE 8. Opinions regarding ecological impacts of cloud seeding.

Percent replying YES when asked: Can cloud seeding suppress hail? Do you think that cloud seeding might damage the ecology of an
area-that it might prove harmful to plant or animal life, soil or
Colorado South Dakota Illinois water, in any way?
Experimental* Control Pre** Post
Percent replying Colorado South Dakota Illinois
1972 49 36 19 39
1973 56 26 No 42(67)* 51 31
1974 63 39 20 Uncertain/don't know 42(21) 18 41
Yes 16(12) 31 28
Percent replying YES when asked: Can cloud seeding increase mois-
ture? * Figures in parentheses reflect latest (August 1974) responses
1972 53 51 48 74 of fraction of sample residing in NHRE experimental area.
1973 47 54 Source: Krane and Haas (1974a, 1974b).
1974 48 49 54

* Experimental respondents reside in the "target area" of the
National Hail Research Experiment while Control respondents live
about 100 miles away.
** Pre results are from interviews which took place before the
South Dakota Weather Modification Program was launched.
Sources: Haas (1974), Krane and Haas (1974).
with the extent to which people perceive them as
economically beneficial. Table 6 suggests that belief in
the efficacy of cloud seeding increases with the level of
exposure to seeding activities. Such a conclusion is
implied by the sharp increase in belief from "before" to
"after" the initiation of the South Dakota operational
program and the steady increase over time in the
affirmative responses given by residents of the NHRE
experimental area. One also notes that people living at
some distance from the NHRE area (the control group)
are considerably less sanguine concerning the effec-
tiveness of seeding to suppress hail than those residing
in the area. The results in Table 7 can be partially
explained as indicating relatively less concern in the
Midwest with the hail hazard per se. Perhaps the most
interesting aspect of the responses to the question about
benefits is that in all three states there was a very small
number of respondents who believe that effective
suppression will actually cause them some form of
economic loss.
The costs of modem technology are increasingly
being recognized as incorporating a large psychic
component. Though it may be highly effective in
reducing cavities and otherwise be harmless, a commu-
nity is unlikely to maximize its utility through
fluoridation of its water supply if a substantial minority
TABLE 7. Perceived benefits from effective hail suppression.
If a cloud seeding program in your area were able to suppress hail,
would it be economic benefit to you, harmful to you, or make no
difference?
Percent replying Colorado South Dakota Illinois
of its citizens think it might gradually poison them.
Similarly, it is important to note that there is a
significant segment of the public who are fearful of the
ecological consequences of cloud seeding, as is shown
in Table 8. The 31% of the South Dakota sample who
still think it may be harmful also suggests that simple
exposure to a weather modification program is not
sufficient to allay such fears. On the other hand, it is
noteworthy that residents of the NHRE experimental
area in Colorado are much less alarmed about such
possibilities. This higher level of confidence that
seeding will not damage the ecology may result from the
fact that many residents of the area are aware of the
routine ecosystem monitoring which has been main-
tained throughout the experiment.
Two inferences can be drawn from the results
presented in Table 9. First, that if the NHRE ended by
convincingly demonstrating the effectiveness of cloud
seeding in the suppression of hail, there would be
overwhelming support for immediate full-scale opera-
tional programs from residents in and near the present
experimental area, who already look upon the possibil-
ity of an operational program with considerable favor.
Second, the situation in the Midwest appears to be quite
different, as almost one-third of the survey sample
expressed opposition to an operational program. This
suggests that some form of small scale experimental or
pilot project might be an essential prerequisite to the
initiation of a successful operational program.
The high degree of support for a possible operational
suppression program in northeastern Colorado has
TABLE 9. Attitudes to operational hail suppression.
As a resident of this area, how do you feel about the possibility of
an operational hail suppression program? (In Colorado, question
added the words: "which would follow the current hail experiment.")
Percent
replying Colorado Illinois

Harmful 3 I 2 Opposed 9 28
No difference/don't know 15 23 38 Undecided 15 39
Beneficial 82 76 60 Favor 76 33

Source: Krane and Haas (1974b). Source: Krane and Haas (1974b).
170
been confirmed by the responses over time to a related
question which asked farm operators in the survey
sample to say whether or not they would be willing to
pay 25<1: or 30<1: per planted acre as their share of the
costs of such a program. Less than 10% expressed unwill-
ingness to contribute, while some 12% were uncertain and
79% responded affirmatively. Since the phrasing of this
question implied that the program would be effective,
this positive response does not reveal anything about
belief in efficacy. It does indicate that farmers in this
area, if convinced that a program would work, would
not necessarily expect (or wait for) the general taxpayer
to foot the bill.
Where programs of weather modification are con-
cerned, serious conflicts of interest may not always be
avoidable. However, they can often be resolved and/or
their adverse impacts can be minimized if their nature is
clearly understood and if would-be modifiers are willing
to plan their activities in a cooperative manner. An
important conclusion arrived at by the social research is
that the failure to deal with incipient conflicts is very
likely to result in complete termination of a modification
program. A striking example is the hail suppression
program in the San Luis Valley of southwestern
Colorado, which was legally terminated through
non-renewal of the state permit. In this case, the
program's demise can be traced directly to the activities
of an organized opposition centered around the valley's
ranchers and potato growers, who believed that the
cloud seeding was decreasing total precipitation.
Polarization of the issues and lack of communication
between the parties led to an escalation of rhetoric and a
rising pitch of emotions which appeared to culminate in
the detonation of a bomb in the modifier's equipment
trailer on 19 August 1972. Months before this incident
occurred, it had become evident that the social unrest
and divisiveness which had been allowed to grow
around the issues, had made it impossible for the
modification program to provide net benefits for
residents of the valley.
7. Legal and institutional adjustments
Laws, and the climate in which they are enforced,
inevitably exert a major influence on the process of
adoption of a new technology, on the structure of its
use, and on the distribution of the costs and benefits
created by that use. Weather modification laws can and
do vary from the "permissive-control" type aimed at
and achieved in the recent Illinois statute27 to the
outright prohibition enacted by the Maryland legisla-
27 Details ofthe Illinois Weather Modification Control Bill of 1973
may be found in Ackermann eta/. (1974). The authors also present
their reasons for considering this a "model" statute.
PART II: HAIL SUPPRESSION
ture. Specific dimensions in which legislation affects
hail suppression and other modification activities
include (i) regulation and control, (ii) extent of public
participation in decision-making, (iii) extent and nature
of liability and (iv) program financing. The following
paragraphs enlarge on each of these aspects.
Twenty-eight states have some sort of weather
modification statute. Twenty-one of these have provi-
sions for licensing and/or registration of operators who
must meet certain requirements regarding qualifica-
tions and experience. In nine cases, a permit system is
also mandated, requiring the licensed operator(s) to
provide certain information prior to carrying out any
actual operations. Most of these states have legislated
minimum requirements for record-keeping and
minimum tests of financial responsibility which must be
passed in order to begin and continue operations
(DiGiulian and Charak, 1974). In general it appears that
western states and states in which weather modification
operations have been most extensive and frequent, are
those which have passed the most comprehensive
legislation, including provisions for licenses, permits,
and routine project monitoring. With some exceptions,
it is also apparent that these same states have attempted
to strike a balance between the need to protect the
citizens from outright charlatans and fly-by-night
operators and the desire to encourage continued
development of techniques which carry the promise of
significant potential benefits. The first article of the
Colorado Weather Modification Act of 1972 typifies this
concern in the following words:
The state of Colorado recognizes that economic benefits can be
derived for the people of the state from weather modification.
Operations, research, experimentation, and development in the field
of weather modification shall therefore be encouraged. In order to
minimize possible adverse effects, weather modification activities
shall be carried on with proper safeguards, and accurate informa-
tion . . . . . shall be made available for purposes of regulation.
In consonance with this desire not to discourage
legitimate operations, most states with license fees
have set them at a rather modest $100, and in other
respects have attempted to make their rules and
procedures straightforward enough to avoid creating
undue administrative burdens for modifiers.
Fourteen states require public notice of a planned
program of weather modification, such requirements
running all the way from a pro forma notice in a
government gazette to the need to publicize and hold a
public hearing. While the more rigorous of such
requirements place an obvious burden on would-be
modifiers in the short run, it is not at all clear that their
long-run viability may not be enhanced when the public
knows that its opinions are at least being heard and
considered. In any event, there is a widely held view
that public participation in certain aspects of weather
STEWART W. BORLAND
modification programs is not only desirable, but
inevitable (Lansford, 1973).
Legislative intervention into issues of liability has
most often been directed to limiting the rights which
plaintiffs might otherwise enjoy under the common law.
A plaintiff is normally faced with two hurdles. First,
establishing causality between the actions of the
modifier and the damage claimed. Second, providing a
judicially acceptable rationale for the assertion of
liability. Difficulties of demonstrating causality are a
familiar story which will not be repeated here. Suffice it
to say that legislatures have hesitated to tamper with
this tradition and it remains a formidable barrier to a
would-be claimant for damages. In the second area
legislative intervention has narrowed the bases on
which the assertion ofliability may stand. For example,
Article 23 of the Colorado statute, in part, says: "The
mere dissemination of materials into the atmosphere
shall not give rise to the contention or concept that such
use of the atmosphere constitutes trespass or involves
an actionable or enjoinable public or private nuisance.''
With such wording, the statute undermines two of the
four general "theories of liability" which a plaintiff
might otherwise employ.
If a plaintiff can establish that a certain activity is
ultrahazardous or inherently dangerous, the burden of
showing negligence on the part of the defendant in
carrying out that activity is lifted. Only causation must
then be established in order to have the claim upheld.
Legislation has been passed in some states which
imposes strict liability on weather modifiers (e.g.
Pennsylvania, West Virginia) but in other states the
law specifies that modification is not to be considered
an ultrahazardous activity. In these respects, a Task
Group on the Legal Problems of Weather Modification
Activities concluded that the concept of absolute (strict)
liability is appropriate for weather modification activities
and proposed that all modifiers be subject to this liability
rule, including federal, state, and local government
agencies (Taubenfeld, 1970). In principle, that posi-
tion is persuasive. If causation can be established
by damaged parties, and a modification program cannot
show a surplus above operating costs after payment of
full compensation, then there exists a prima facie case
that its activities create no net social benefits. The force
of this argument is considerably weakened in the case of
operations whose objectives are purely scientific and
experimental, for in these cases society is implicitly
accepting the odds on a gamble that the new knowledge
will ultimately prove to be of sufficient value to justify
the resources expended and the risks taken. That
commercial operations and research projects should be
treated differently in the eyes of the law has been
recognized in many of the state statutes by provisions
which require research projects to show scientific
171
justification but relieve them from the responsibility to
establish short-run economic benefits.
In Section 4, it was pointed out that the stability of an
operational program of hail suppression is heavily
dependent on the extent to which it can rely on tax
levies for financial support. The right to tap such funds
must be established by senior levels of government,
even though the impetus may be generated in local
communities. Again, there is wide divergence in
approaches adopted by the various states. Many state
laws provide no mechanism which would permit local
jurisdictions to tax for this purpose; some specify
maximum amounts which could be devoted to the
support of modification (usually these are unrealisti-
cally low); while five states have specified the
appropriate taxing structure in some detail. 28 South
Dakota is the outstanding example of a state which has
extended financial support to operational weather
modification within its borders by including state-level
support as a line item in the regular budget process.
Whether other heavily agricultural states will follow
suit depends partly on the developing political climate
and also upon the extent to which techniques of
modification are perceived as approaching useful levels
of effectiveness and reliability.
At the present time, the only piece of U. S. Federal
legislation, which directly relates to weather modifica-
tion, is P.L. 92-205, passed late in 1971, which provides
for mandatory reporting of all non-Federal weather
modification activities to the Secretary of Commerce. A
fundamental aim oflegislative and judicial action in this
area must be to minimize the magnitude of related social
and individual conflict and to provide cost-effective
methods of resolving any conflicts which do arise.
While state laws and local regulations appear to be
gradually evolving which promise to cope with indi-
vidual and intra-state conflicts of interest, not very
much has been done to lay the groundwork for dealing
with potential clashes between states and/or on the
international level. 29 Since currently operational pro-
grams of deliberate weather modification do not seem to
be producing significant alterations on the synoptic
scale, this is probably a rational emphasis. It may well
be that the adverse effects of inadvertent weather and
climate modification will provide the necessary impetus
28 These are Iowa, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oregon and South
Dakota (DiGiulian and Charak, 1974).
29 Two recent developments are encouraging. In January 1975, the
North American Interstate Weather Modification Council was
formed, with representatives from 15 states, 3 Canadian provinces,
and Mexico. This new body provides a vehicle of interstate
communication which could perform an extremely useful function.
Another step forward may be seen in the recent US-USSR
agreements in principle to refrain from the use of environmental
modification as a weapon of war.
172
to development of a framework of law and rules
designed to avoid and ameliorate these higher level
disputes.
8. Current work
a. The contemporary approach
The most distinctive aspect of current work in this
area is the adoption of methodologies, or conceptual
frameworks, which virtually guarantee the participa-
tion of a wide range of disciplines in the assessment
process. Some would call this the "systems approach."
Within such a framework, the contributions of the
various specialists are marked by the increasing use of a
number of analytical tools which were originally
developed for other applications. These include:
• the newer techniques of investigating multivariate
relationships such as pattern, discriminant, and
factor analyses
• computer simulations of economic and biological
systems, including sensitivity analysis of key
variables
• mathematical programming of subsystems, includ-
ing dynamic programming models of adaptive,
multi-goal suboptimization with feedback loops
• input-output analysis for identifying and quantify-
ing secondary economic impacts.
The analytical structures which integrate the disci-
plinary components of an assessment by means of a
conceptual framework are identified by such names as
Benefit-Cost, Cost Effectiveness, Benefit-Risk, Deci-
sion Analysis, and Technology Assessment. They vary
somewhat in their emphasis and in the scope of the
problems for which they are best suited. From the
standpoint of the policy-maker, an assessment of
benefits and costs is apt to be particularly useful if
presented as a decision analysis or structured as a
technology assessment. A decision analysis culminates
in a recommended course of action, but in doing so it
identifies the feasible alternatives and formally quan-
tifies the uncertainties involved so that other courses of
action may be evaluated in the light of the policy-
maker's value judgements. The emphases of technol-
ogy assessment are on comprehensiveness and on
prediction, for it specifically shoulders the task of
examining the very long range implications of adopting
the particular technique(s) being considered. 30
b. Studies underway and planned
Section 3c reviewed the work done to date on
developing relationships between physical parameters
30 A concise introduction to decision analysis is given in North
(1968) and an early example of its application to the field of weather
modification can be found in Howard et al. (1972). See Coates (1974)
for a definition and some examples of technology assessments.
PART II: HAIL SUPPRESSION
of the hailfall and the resulting reductions in ultimate
crop yield. It was pointed out that these relationships
have not yet been refined to the point where they are
capable of providing reasonably precise answers to the
sort of questions which are being asked (e.g. how much
will the damage to winter wheat caused by a mid-July
hailstorm be decreased if the result of seeding were a
reduction in median stone size of one centimeter?).
The need for a deeper understanding of the interac-
tion of these variables has been recognized and is
presently being sought in at least three different studies.
In central Illinois, a network of 650 hailpads along with
81 recording raingages and 4 wind recorders has been
operating since the end of May 1975, and will produce
matched observations of crop damage with the values
from adjacent impacted hailpads. Analysis of these
data, by ISWS staff, will assist in refining damage
functions for corn and soybeans.
In northeast Colorado NCAR has established a
network of hailpads serviced by voluntary farmer-
reporters who have provided damage information and
associated weather observations on losses to wheat and
corn during the 1975 season. These damage reports
were verified by appraisers with experience in crop-hail
insurance adjusting.
The third item of related research is being carried out
at Panhandle State College in Oklahoma, in cooperation
with NCAR staff. There, a machine will be used to
bombard growing plants with ice particles in various
size ranges and with muzzle velocities and trajectories
designed to closely approximate natural hailfall. Adja-
cent test and control plots of wheat and sorghum will be
utilized to measure the ultimate yield reductions
associated with treatments of specified amounts of
certain sizes of ice particles under specified surface
wind conditions.
Presently available estimates of property loss to hail
are not well-founded. NCAR personnel are engaged in
the process of building up a data bank of case studies of
the effects of damaging hailfall in urbanized areas which
will be used as a basis from which to extrapolate
average annual damages on a regional scope.
Continuing studies on silver uptake by grasshoppers
at the University of Wyoming are expected to lead to
the identification of a threshold level beyond which
concentrations of silver in the soil will produce
significant health and mortality effects on these insects.
In the area of ecological impacts, another phenomenon
which is now receiving attention in investigations at
Colorado State University is the apparent existence of a
"sink" for the silver dispersed in seeding agent burn
complexes. Since the silver seems to stay in the top
layers of the soil but is not accumulating in the NHRE
experimental area, does it blow away? If so, does it
subsequently accumulate in water courses and low-
lying portions of the topography?
STEWART W. BORLAND
The sociologists at the University of Colorado are
pursuing a deeper understanding of social impacts in
several ways. Results should soon be available from an
opinion survey which they sent out to an extensive list
of people with expertise in various aspects of weather
modification. Answers will indicate how those knowl-
edgeable in the field assess the effectiveness of hail
suppression and the degree to which it is ready for
operational utilization.
Another study which should be mentioned is just
beginning as ajoint venture of the Illinois State Water
Survey and the Department of Agricultural Economics
at the University of Illinois. Under NSF sponsorship,
they will carry out a technology assessment of hail
suppression at the national level which will examine the
"state of the art" in detail, as well as provide some
alternative probable projections of its development
over the next one or two decades, along with a
quantification of many of the associated impacts. Policy
options suggested by the alternative development
"paths" will be evaluated. Their report is expected to
be available in 1977.
9. Unexplored issues
This concluding section mentions only a few of the
many possibilities for future work in assessing the
impacts of hail suppression. The intention is to focus on
aspects of the overall problem which have received
only casual attention up to the present time, but which
appear to warrant more serious study.
Two such topics were suggested in the recent report
of the study on natural hazards research carried out at
the University of Colorado (White and Haas, 1975). The
first of these concerns the appropriate role of the
insurance industry in ameliorating the individual
financial hardship which can result from a "run" of
damaging hail events. It would deal with such questions
as the desirability of finding ways to expand coverage
beyond the present 10-20% who voluntarily pur-
chase it and/or to provide government assistance for the
uninsured farm family who may suffer crippling losses.
In addition, it would examine the alternative ways in
which insurance could be combined with suppression
programs in order to provide the farmer with some
protection against those damaging hail events which
suppression techniques fail to prevent. A second study
would consider the potentials for using land in ways
which would reduce individual risks and perhaps even
social costs. On a large scale this might involve
incentives to move the production of relatively
hail-prone crops out of high-hail areas, while at the farm
level it would investigate the trade-offs between
production efficiency and the geographic diversification
of land-holdings.
These two suggestions for study bring certain related
173
aspects of the problem to mind. For example, what is
the value of the increased stability in regional income
flows which could result from a combination of
effective suppression and insurance coverage which
took care of most of the remaining risk? Also, what will
be the likely effects of operational hail suppression on
the distribution of income and on the relative inequality
of incomes in an agricultural region?
Another set of questions which have thus far been
examined only in a very general way are those relating
to the kinds of information which ought to be generated
by operational suppression programs. These fall into
two broad categories. First, there is the day-to-day
information which a program should make available to
the general public and the question of how it should be
disseminated. Second, there is the data which a
program should produce for the twin purposes of
evaluation and of contributing to new basic knowledge
of suppression mechanisms. Such data are generally
expensive to obtain and record, yet ways must be found
to encourage even those programs whose announced
goals are purely operational to gather the data required
to permit a reasonable evaluation of their effectiveness
and to cooperate in the search for deeper understanding
of hailstorm phenomena.
Hail suppression, in common with other cloud
seeding techniques, possesses remarkable flexibility
and mobility. These attributes were dramatically
demonstrated during the fall of 1973 when the
government of Niger appealed to the U. S. Department
of Commerce for advice and assistance in utilizing
weather modification to help alleviate that nation's
extended drought. From the initial phone call to the
date of the first operational flight by aircraft ferried from
the U. S. by the selected commercial modifier, the
elapsed time was eight days (Weather Science, Inc.,
1973). The program was subsequently taken over and is
still being operated by the Nigerian government,
suggesting that cloud seeding is a highly exportable
technology. What has not been developed is a basis for
decisions regarding the extent to which a technically
proficient nation like the U. S. should assist less
developed agricultural countries to evaluate hail
suppression (and other weather modification tech-
niques) in the light of their particular climatology and
social and economic structure.
The inherent economies of large scale operation and
the frequency with which agriculturally homogeneous
areas overlap state boundaries both combine to make it
likely that successful operational programs will sooner
or later cross state boundaries. While "model" weather
modification statutes have been drafted (see Section 7),
very little has been done to analyze the types of
enabling legislation which may be required to permit the
beneficial operation of suppression programs involving
more than one state. This may soon become a high
174
priority item for legal researchers interested in the
problems of weather modification, along with the
continuation of work on methods for coping with the
issue of a modifier's liability for adverse effects.
A final problem which calls for more intensive
investigation is the extent to which operational and
experimental programs of hail suppression should be
distinct from similar programs designed to manage
precipitation. From the standpoint of the principal end
users ofboth techniques, the distinction is of no value.
What the agriculturist desires is an integrated program
which would suppress hail at certain times of the
growing season, would increase rainfall at other times,
and would suppress all precipitation during a few key
periods. It is also not very clear to the farmer just what
difference there is between seeding to affect rainfall and
seeding to suppress hail. Indeed, theoretical models
indicate that hail suppression activities do affect total
precipitation. For experimental programs, this suggests
that hail suppression researchers should collaborate as
closely as possible with those investigating rainfall
augmentation. For assessments of either kind of
modification, it implies that the full range of costs and
benefits should be viewed as stemming from the
operation of programs designed to achieve the set of
goals desired by the ultimate users.
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 Response to
"Hail Suppression: Progress in Assessing Its Costs and Benefits"
STANLEY A.
Illinois State Water Survey, Urbana, Illinois
1. Introduction
Commentary on the review paper by Borland (1976)
is facilitated because the paper is an outstanding, easily
read overview of a wide variety of the ''other issues''
relating to hail suppression and other forms of weather
modification. It is unfortunate that such a review and
compilation of information was not available in the
mid-1960's before the United States decided to launch
major experimentation in hail suppression. I would
guess that if such information as presented by Borland
had been available in 1966, the national program of hail
research either might not have occurred or would have
taken a drastically different direction than it has over
the last 10 years.
Most importantly, I would recommend a careful
reading of Borland's review to anyone who ever has
been or will ever be concerned with hail suppression. In
fact, this paper should be required for all those
concerned with weather modification. It is a pioneering,
comprehensive effort that sets forth, in lucid detail, the
many non-meteorological effects, impacts, and issues
that are an integral part of hail suppression and weather
modification.
2. Review of key issues
A major contribution of this paper is its emphasis on
knowledge of secondary impacts, both positive and
negative. Too many economic and social evaluations of
weather modification have dealt with only the direct
benefits and impacts without consideration of second-
ary or tertiary impacts. This paper is the first place that
the issue of regional economic shifts has been presented
to the weather modification community. The discussion
on who wins and who loses from hail suppression, as
suppression utility gets even wider regional acceptance
and adoption, is of classic importance. The technology
assessment of hail suppression supports this issue,
pointing to the fact that widespread adoption will
produce losers in the agricultural community. The win-
ners are the nation's consumers (Changnon et al., 1977).
Borland correctly describes the key role that hail
insurance data have played in the many hail studies.
These data have been the keystone of most evaluations
of the reality and value of hail suppression (Changnon
and Morgan, 1976).
A valuable contribution offered is a thorough analysis
177
CHANGNON, JR.
of the costs of operational hail suppression projects.
Such concise information is of immense value, not only
to scientists, but to a wide number of users. In fact, a
"layman's summary" emanating from the technology
assessment of the Illinois State Water Survey (Fahar,
et al., 1977) will contain a similar analysis addressing the
needs of the "buyer." Of interest in the Borland paper
is the analysis showing that operational modification
costs are a function of area size. It is the first such
presentation of this relationship.
The paper contains a very succinct treatment of
"extra area influences." Although brief, it is an
extremely fair and honest assessment of this often
misconstrued issue. Quite possibly it has been put in its
proper perspective because it was done by a non-
atmospheric scientist.
Borland's treatment of the social impacts and
responses is a superb condensation and summary of the
key findings about public attitudes in various locales
towards weather modification. It very correctly points
out two key facts. First, the adoption of hail suppres-
sion is strongly dependent upon the local belief in the
effectiveness of hail suppression. Second, local con-
troversies over weather modification can be minimized
if the risks and benefits of the project are both clearly
stated at the outset to the local populace, and if the
modifiers will plan the project in a cooperative manner
to adjust to local considerations. For example, agree-
ments may be established to halt seeding efforts during
conditions when the local residents feel that it is already
too wet. Failure to perform these two activities is
pointed out to always lead to local controversies that in
turn result in the ultimate stoppage of the programs.
Borland's review of legal activities contains a very
interesting conclusion. He speculates that inadvertent
weather and climate modification will likely be the
ultimate impetus that will lead to the development of
federal and international laws that will control and
govern both planned and inadvertent weather modifica-
tion.
Another important concept about weather modifica-
tion that is recognized is its considerable mobility, the
ease of installation and removal from operation. This is
a distinct advantage to both the seller and the user of
weather modification.
A technology assessment project conducted sub-
sequent to Borland's paper (Changnon et al., 1977) has
178 PART II: HAIL SUPPRESSION

produced results that are in substantial agreement with suppression and weather modification of the impact of
the speculations of Borland. For example, both the Presidential Commission assigned to review
recommend that experimentation on hail suppression weather modification during the late 1950's and early
cannot and should not ignore physical hypotheses that 1960's. A minor error concerns the fact that the First
address the simultaneous modification of rain and hail. National Symposium on Hail Suppression in October,
Borland points out that a 20% decrease in hail loss in the 1965, was at Dillon, Colorado, not in Boulder.
Great Plains would be nullified by a simultaneous 5%
decrease in rainfall. The technology assessment work 4. Important unknowns and unexplored issues
(Sonka, 1977) shows that in most areas of the United
One of the major contributions ofthe Borland review
States a 15% decrease in rainfall associated with
of the "Benefits and Costs" of hail suppression relates
hailstorms alone would negate the economic benefit of a
to his identification, either directly or implied, of key
50% reduction in hail loss. Thus, the Borland and Haas
unknowns and unexplored issues. A major concern of
et al., (1976) papers indicate that modification ex-
hail suppression that has not been adequately addressed
perimentation focused only on "segments" of convec-
tive storms (hail, NHRE; rain, HIPLEX; lightning, has been establishment of the true relationship
between crop and property damages and the physical
Forest Service and NOAA) is an incorrect approach:
characteristics of hail and associated winds (Changnon
Incorrect from a physical atmospheric viewpoint (all of
and Morgan, 1976). For example, a suppression
these phenomena are interlocked and it is unlikely that
hypothesis developed around a concept of reducing
one can be measurably modified without affecting all
stone size might, after five years of experimentation,
the others, including downdrafts and surface winds),
prove to be successful. But if such modification led to
and from a social-economic-environmental perspective
an increase in downdrafts and added surface winds to
because man and the biosphere are integrators of all the
drive the smaller hailstones with a greater momentum,
effects of convective storms.
an undesirable crop-loss outcome might be experi-
enced. Hence, the relationship between hail, rain,
3. Minor problems
surface winds, and crop damage needs to be very
It is extremely difficult to find anything to quarrel carefully known and stated in order to develop rational,
with in Borland's comprehensive and well-balanced meaningful experimental hypotheses for hail and rain
review of many wide ranging issues. A few minor items modification.
need some correction and clarification, if only to prove Borland does identify the fact that knowledge of
that Borland is not perfect. I believe that it has been property loss was lacking at the time of his review.
shown (Changnon, 1970) that the distribution of Fortunately, the technology assessment project under
hailswath sizes is not poorly understood. Certainly, the direction ofthe Illinois State Water Survey (Haas et
they are not understood everywhere, but in part of the al., 1976; Friedman, 1976) has provided this long-
country, such as Illinois and South Dakota, adequate needed information on property-hail losses in the
measurements have been made (see pp. 107-128 in United States.
this Monograph). Borland's paper, in a variety of locations, points to
Borland's speculation that property damage due to the extreme measurement problems associated with
hail could be 1/3 of the crop-hail loss total has been surface hail. This is one of the critical information areas
found to be incorrect. In a recent study for the pointed out by Changnon (1976) and affects all forms of
technology assessment of hail suppression, Friedman evaluation from an economic standpoint. A part of this
(1976) developed for the first time reliable estimates of "need-to-know about surface hail" is Borland's urging
national property loss from hail. These figures show an of studies of hail streaks and hail swaths in various hail
annual average property loss of$75 million in the U.S., areas of the United States. This is critical in various
which is 9% of the annual total loss. The Friedman empirical economic studies as well as in the evaluation
analyses point to the major areas of property loss in the of hail suppression and as general background knowl-
United States within the context of the "hail regions" edge of hailstorm typing.
developed by Changnon (1976). A region incorporating Several of the unexplored issues that Borland
Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas, has an identifies have been addressed in the technology as-
annual property-hail loss of $15 million, and the sessment of hail suppression (Changnon et al., 1977).
Midwest region, including Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, These include 1) the land use and crop type shifts
Missouri, and Kentucky has an annual property loss resulting from the reduced risk produced by hail
due to hail of $14 million. suppression, 2) the potential of combining hail suppres-
A couple of minor omissions and errors in the very sion with hail insurance, and 3) public information
interesting review of the history of hail suppression programs for hail suppression projects. Borland's
exist. First, is the omission in the history of hail identification of these unexplored issues ensured their
STANLEY A. CHANG NON, JR. 179

- - , R. J. Davis, B. C. Farhar, J. E. Haas, L. J. Ivens,

inclusion in a major technology assessment, which is M. V. Jones, D. A. Klein, D. Mann, G. M. Morgan, S. T.
essentially an in-depth follow-on of Borland's "review Sonka and E. R. Swanson, 1977: Hail suppression impacts and
assessment.'' I predict that the Borland paper will stand issues. Illinois State Water Survey, 427 pp.
for many years as the first comprehensive overview of Farhar, B. C., S. A. Changnon, E. R. Swanson, R. J. Davis and
the many complex and interrelated non-meteorological J. E. Haas, 1977: Hail suppression and society. Illinois State
Water Survey, 25 pp.
issues of weather modification. G., 1976: Hail suppression impact on property
Friedman, E.
insurance Illinois State Water Survey TASH Working Paper 11,
REFERENCES
Urbana, 69 pp.
Borland, S. W., 1977: Hail suppression: Progress in assessing its Haas, J. E., S. A. Changnon, R. J. Davis, B. C. Farhar and E.
benefits and costs. Meteor. Monogr. No. 38 (this issue). Swanson, 1976: Impact Assessment of Future Hail Suppression
Changnon, S. A., 1970: Hailstreaks. J. Atmos. Sci., 27, 109-125. Technologies in the United States. Proc. Second WMO Sci.
- - , 1976: Scales of Hail. J. Appl. Meteor., 12, 38 pp. Conf. Weather Modification, WMO No. 443, 585-592. .
- - , and G. M. Morgan, 1976: The present status and future Sonka, S., 1977: Economic incentives of individual farmers for hail
potential of hail suppression. J. Wea. Mod., 8, 164-189. suppression. J. Wea. Mod., 9, 22 pp.
 Hail Suppression Concepts and Seeding Methods
A. s. DENNIS

Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, South Dakota School of Mines and Technology, Rapid City

ABSTRACT

Most hail suppression projects have been based upon the concepts that seeding to initiate freezing in supercooled
clouds will 1) reduce the supply of supercooled cloud water available for hailstone growth; and 2) produce
additional hail embryos to compete for the available supercooled water. Seeding m~thods used to implement the.se
concepts have included the dispersal of Agl crystals in a broadcast mode, dispersal m the updraft areas of potential
hailstorms and direct injection of seeding agents into suspected regions of hail formation. Experimental results so
far seem to' favor the updraft seeding and direct injection approaches, but uncertainties about actual results persist.
The modeling of hail suppression processes indicates that cloud glaciation is ~ot effective in cloud.s ~ith updrafts
exceeding 15 m s- 1 • Models of the competing embryo concept are only now bemg formulated. Prehmmary resul~s
suggest the concept might be applicable in cases where hail forms from supercooled raindr~ps or from g~aupel m
multicellular storms. There is no immediately obvious way to slow the growth of large hmlstones feedmg upon
supercooled cloud droplets immediately above a weak echo region in a steady-state storm.

1. Conceptual models of hail suppression
Cloud seeding projects to suppress hail have existed
in various parts of the world for almost 30 years. The
projects have rested upon a variety of conceptual
models as to how the cloud seeding treatments could
affect the formation of hail (Table 1). Attempts to break
up existing hailstones by explosions, as practiced for
some years in Italy and elsewhere, will not be covered
in this paper.
The glaciation concept rests upon the hypothesis that
the collection efficiency of hailstones for cloud ice
crystals is lower than that for supercooled water drops.
It is closely related to the overseeding concept, which
holds that total or nearly complete glaciation of
supercooled clouds reduces the total precipitation from
them. The competing embryo concept assumes that the
amount of supercooled water in the hail cloud is the
limiting factor on the amount of hail produced, so
introduction of sufficient competing embryos can lead
to a reduction in the sizes of the hailstones reaching the
ground. The third concept actually involves a number
of possibilities including, for example, the production
of rain in the lower part of a cloud to reduce the amount
of cloud water rising to the supercooled hail-forming
regions. Seeding for hail suppression undoubtedly
produces dynamic effects, but these have not been
consciously sought in many projects. Possibilities here
include the destruction of the updraft in a convective
cell through the premature generation of precipitation,
or the weakening of an intense thunderstorm by the
initiation of other showers in the vicinity.
In view of the different types of clouds which may
produce hail and the complexities of the hail forming
process, the seeding concepts require close examina-
tion to determine their validity. Nevertheless, many
181
hail suppression projects were launched in various
countries based on one or another of these concepts
beginning about 1950. We shall briefly review some of
the more significant of those projects before turning to a
more critical examination of the seeding concepts.
2. Seeding methods
Nearly all of the hail suppression projects in the
world have involved the introduction or intended
introduction of ice nucleants to the regions of hail
formation. This is, of course, a commonly used
technique for stimulation of precipitation, and a
complete analysis of a hail suppression project should
include a consideration of its effects upon rainfall. In
general, the persons seeking to suppress hail have
favored higher seeding rates than have persons seeking
to increase precipitation, but rates have varied widely,
from a few grams to over 1 kg h- 1 (e.g., Schleusener,
1968).
The choice of a seeding method (ice nucleant delivery
system) for hail suppression is influenced by the
conceptual models of the hailstorms and of the hail
suppression process, as well as by the techniques and
equipment available to conduct and to monitor the
seeding operation. Dennis and Schleusener (1974)
noted that there are three general methods for seeding
convective clouds: 1) broadcast seeding, 2) updraft
seeding and 3) direct injection of seeding material. In
TABLE 1. Hail suppression conceptual models.
1. Glaciation of supercooled cloud water.
2. Competing hailstone embryos.
3. Change of cloud droplet size distribution.
4. Dynamic effect.
182 PART II: HAIL SUPPRESSION

TABLE 2. Examples of Agi consumption on hail suppression projects. practice it is often difficult to determine which inflow
areas are associated with hail formation at a given
Per Average
Area season per day moment.
Location (km 2) Year (kg) (kg)

Broadcast c. Direct injection

Alberta 6000 1968 266 17
1971 4500 55
If one has a conceptual model which pinpoints the
France 70000
hail formation region in space or time, or both, the
Updraft
North Dakota 5000 1966 30 1.2 direct injection method becomes the logical choice
(Bowman Slope) 5900 1967 55 2.9 because it avoids wasting material seeding parcels of air
8200 1%8 96 3.1 not participating in the hail process. It also avoids
South Dakota 120000 1974 230 3.2 difficulties related to the deactivation of seeding agents
Colorado (NHRE) 1500 1973 16 8 by sunlight, or by wetting in warm clouds, and to
1974 128 9.8
uncertainties regarding trajectories after material is
Direct injection
Caucasus Mts* 300 1962 6.3 0.9 released from generators. Thus, it was logical that early
500 1963 9.0 0.6 hail suppression trials in the Soviet Union should make
1973 9.0 use of the direct injection technique, with rockets and
Alberta 14000 1972 137 5.7
19000 1973 69 4.3
artillery shells fired to glaciate the accumulation zones
of supercooled rainwater which figured prominently in
* It is believed that the reagent in these experiments was Pbi 2 • the Sulakvelidze hailstorm model (Sulakvelidze eta/.,
Cloud chamber measurements showed I. 7 x 10 12 ice nuclei at
-10°C per gram Pbi 2 compared to 3.2 x 10 12 per gram Agi 1967).
(Sulakvelidzeeta/., 1%7, 174-176).
d. Comparison of methods
each case, a wide variety of reagents and delivery Dennis and Schleusener (1974) noted that the
systems have been employed, although Agi crystals consumption of Agi seemed to go down as one moved
have been the seeding agent in most projects. from broadcast seeding, to updraft seeding, to direct
injection. More recent data show that consumption
a. Broadcast seeding rates for updraft seeding and direct injection are about
The objective in broadcast seeding is to distribute the the same when sizes of protected areas are considered
seeding agent widely so that it will be available in any air (Table 2). Furthermore, the amounts of reagent used in
parcel that participates in the precipitation process the Soviet experiments have increased over the years.
affecting the target area. Broadcast seeding is usually Despite Sulakvelidze's hopeful comment (Sulakvelidze
carried out from networks of generators from the eta/., 1967, p. 176) that "The 1963 experiments showed
ground, but has been accomplished from an airborne the possibility of reducing the doses somewhat in the
generator, for example, on Project Whitetop. Some future,'' reagent consumption per storm has mounted
rocket seeding to suppress hail in Germany could also from a maximum of900 gin one 1963 experiment to as
be described as broadcast seeding as the rockets were much as 75 kg (150 Alazani rockets with an estimated
designed to burn out below cloud base (Muller, 1967). 500 g Pbi 2 each) 1 on a large storm, 2 admittedly in a
different project area, within the last year or so.
b. Updraft seeding A detailed comparison of the effectiveness of the
methods must also take into account differences in the
In convective storms the active cells may occupy only efficiency of the generators used. For example,
1-5% of the total target area at one time and economies explosive discharge of a rocket charged with several
can be achieved by seeding in the updrafts below the kilograms of Agl does not realize as many active nuclei
individual cells. Generators charged with a solution of as the slow burning of the same quantity of Agi in a well
Agl in acetone and flares burned on aircraft racks are ventilated acetone generator.
the most common tools for updraft seeding.
Henderson (1970) carried the selectivity a step 3. Experimental results
further in a hail suppression program in Kenya:
A comparison of the different methods of seeding
''Seeding will be accomplished by aircraft flying at cloud base in the
inflow believed to be important to that specific cloud volume which
clouds for hail suppression is rendered difficult by the
gives birth to the hailstones. Insofar as possible, silver iodide will not extreme variability ofhailfalls (Changnon, 1977), which
be applied to the other inflow areas."
1 The reagent payload, thought to include a mixer or binder, is 1.1
This approach is more sophisticated than a mere kg (Bibilashvili et a/., 1974).
attempt to seed all inflow areas at cloud base, but in 2 Private communication
A. S. DENNIS
makes an accurate evaluation of any single project
impossible, and by variations in hailstorm types from
place to place, which make extrapolation of results
suspect. Nevertheless, it is of some value to note briefly
the relative success that has attended the three seeding
methods. Nearly all of the projects to date have
involved artificial ice nucleants, although it is not
always clear whether glaciation of cloud water or
introduction of competing embryos was the governing
concept.
a. Broadcast seeding
Broadcast seeding of silver iodide from ground
generators failed to demonstrate effectiveness during a
randomized seven-year experiment (Grossversuch III)
in Switzerland (Schmid, 1967). It gave evidence of
success under cold front situations in Argentina
(lribarne and Grandoso, 1965), but that particular
experiment in Argentina has ended. Eight years of
non-randomized broadcast seeding with low-altitude
rockets in Germany also proved ineffective (Muller,
1967).
A commercial project in Alberta, Canada, of 13 years
duration using ground generators and aircraft in a
combined broadcast-updraft seeding mode sparked
reports of success by operators and supporters (e.g.,
Krick and Stone, 1975), but was viewed as inconclusive
by Petersen (1975).
The most extensive remaining hail suppression
program using broadcast seeding is perhaps that of the
ANLFA group (formerly AELFA) in France. Seeding
is accomplished from the ground because mountainous
terrain, low cloud bases, and poor visibility make it
difficult for aircraft to operate. Consumption of silver
iodide has increased over the years with the installation
of additional generators and now amounts to several
metric tons per season (Table 2). 3 It is generally agreed
that results up to 1962 were inconclusive. The operators
report some evidence of success following the introduc-
tion of a new type of generator in 1963 (Dessens and
Lacaux, 1972). However, Boutin (1970) finds the results
inconclusive due to the large variability of the variable
tested, namely, the ratio (R) of hail insurance claims
paid to the total insured liability.
b. Updraft seeding
France was also the site of an operational project
(A.C.M.G.)4 using a combination of direct injection and
updraft seeding from aircraft (Picca, 1971). A silver
iodide-levilite mixture dispersed in powder form was
3 For a general discussion of this project, see any of the annual
summaries issued by the Association Nationale de Lutte contre les
Fleaux Atmospheriques of Toulouse, France.
4 Association Climatologique de Ia Moyenne Garonne.
183
the main seeding agent, but some pyrotechnics were
dropped above and below the clouds. Picca is optimistic
concerning the results, but his analysis, based on crops
and on such things as ratios of "hail days" to "storm
days" may contain pitfalls. Boutin eta[. (1970) believe
some of Picca's positive results stem from the use of
"defective data", and rate the ACMG Project as
inconclusive.
Seeding of updrafts from Agi generators on aircraft
has been used on many operational projects in the
United States ever since 1948 (Frank, 1957). As most of
the projects were conducted on an operational basis
with neither randomization nor adequate instrumenta-
tion, the results received little attention in scientific
circles. However, Schleusener undertook, with sup-
port from the National Science Foundation, observa-
tional work in parallel with the Northeast Colorado
Project of 1959. His results (Schleusener, 1962) and
those of Butchbaker (1973) covering three years of
special observations on the Bowman Slope Project in
North Dakota, presented an optimistic view of the
probable seeding effects. On the other hand, an
after-the-fact study by Henderson and Changnon (1972)
of an operational program in Texas emphasized the
deficiencies of analyses based only on National
Weather Service observations and crop-hail statistics.
The updraft seeding technique received more attention
following its introduction into Kenya by Henderson in
1%7. A comparison of hail from seeded and unseeded
thunderstorm cells by Henderson (1970) suggested a
suppression effect, but suffered from the fact that
no-seed cases were not selected at random and that hail
falling from a cell more than 15 minutes after the end of
seeding was considered to be from an unseeded case.
According to an official of the East African Meteorolog-
ical Department, a randomized experiment conducted
recently in the same area using the same techniques
proved inconclusive.
A randomized trial on 11 individual thunderstorms in
1964 in Colorado did not yield any evidence of hail
suppression through updraft seeding (Schleusener and
Sand, 1964), and neither did the trials of the National
Hail Research Experiment (NHRE) on a fixed target
area of just over 1500 km 2 in northeastern Colorado in
1972-74 (NHRE Staff, 1976). On the NHRE, burning of
Agi flares on aircraft in strong updrafts was
supplemented with rockets launched upward from
aircraft. In both Colorado experiments, the extreme
variability of hailstorms in a small area apparently
precluded the drawing of any firm conclusions.
The Institute of Atmospheric Sciences has collected
hail data in connection with its cloud seeding experi-
ments, most of which involve updraft seeding, ever
since 1965. Observations during eight project seasons in
three different project areas up to 1970 showed that
184
hailfalls from seeded storms were generally less severe
than those from unseeded storms (Schleusener et al.,
1972). Hail insurance data from the area of the
randomized North Dakota Pilot Project of 1969 through
1972 show, with marginal statistical significance, that
crop hail damage per seed day was less than crop
damage per no-seed day (Miller et al., 1975). The
analysis of hail pad data for the same project suggested
reductions of 50% or so in hail energy but failed to show
statistical significance. The data also suggested differ-
ences in the radar-hail-rainfall relationships for seeded
versus unseeded storms.
The largest operational project to date using the
updraft seeding technique is that mounted from 1972 to
1975 by the Division of Weather Modification of South
Dakota. The project had the dual objectives of
increasing rainfall and suppressing hail. The project
expanded from 26 of the state's 67 counties in 1972 to
cover approximately 45 counties in the three following
years, but was largely abandoned for 1976 because
opponents of the program feared that it was suppressing
rainfall as well as hail. Updraft seeding was the
principal technique for hail suppression, although
some feeder 5 clouds were treated with droppable
pyrotechnics by aircraft on direct penetration. Hail
damage in South Dakota in 1972-75 was less than in
prior years. Of greater importance is the fact that the
hail damage in the counties participating in the program
was considerably less than in non-participating coun-
ties, even when allowances are made for long-term
spatial variations. Miller et al. (1976) have found
evidence in crop-hail insurance data from 1948-75 that
the difference in hail experience in seeded and
unseeded counties for 1972-75 has a significance level
near 0.03. Apparently the very large area involved (over
100,000 km2 seeded each year) tended to smooth out, to
some extent, the natural variations in hailfall. If no
natural causes can be found for the observed differ-
ences between the seeded and unseeded counties from
1972 to 1975, one would be led to believe that a
substantial suppression of hail took place during those
four years. Detailed computer simulations also suggest
that the seeded counties received additional rainfall
during the same period (Pellett et al., 1977), a result at
variance with claims of the program's opponents.
c. Direct injection
A conviction that ice nucleants must be delivered discussed above would have dynamic effects. Few
directly to the - 5C level for effective hail suppression researchers have deliberately sought these effects as a
led Soviet scientists to develop the PGIM anti-hail means of controlling hail, perhaps because some cloud
rocket as early as 1958. Subsequent developments there models suggest the effects would include an intensifica-
include the Oblako and Alazani rockets and the Elbrus tion of updrafts and increases in cloud height, both of
5 See Section 4d.
PART II: HAIL SUPPRESSION
artillery shells, all of which are prepared in a variety of
configurations and payloads (Bibilashvili et al., 1974).
The Oblako rocket carries about 5 kg of reagent (usually
a Pbi 2 mixture) and reaches a height of 8 km.
The results reported from projects in the Soviet
Union extend over perhaps 30 or 40 project seasons for
the years 1968 to 1972 alone, and range from 50 to 100%
reduction in hail damage (Burtsev et al., 1974;
Sulakvelidze et al., 1974). Nevertheless, some non-
Soviet scientists remain skeptical. A group in Switzer-
land is now testing the direct injection technique with
Oblako rockets on a randomized basis (Federer, 1977).
The seeding of growing clouds by droppable
pryotechnics by the Alberta Hail Studies Group
(Renick, 1970; Summers et al., 1971), and more
recently by a private American firm at Nelspruit, South
Africa, are also examples of the direct injection
technique.
In spite of an apparent reduction in hailstone size in
some early single storm trials, the Alberta work with
pyrotechnics has not generated any evidence so far for
an overall suppression effect. Operators 6 of the
Nelspruit Project claim favorable results in their annual
report for the 1974-75 season, and some independent
evaluations of that project are in progress.
Some 15 years ago Ludlam (1959) and Weickmann
(1964) both speculated on the possibilities of affecting
hailstorms with artificial CCN, but they wavered
between the relative desirability of producing addi-
tional CCN to overseed the cloud formation process,
thereby slowing coalescence growth of raindrops, and
of adding a few large hygroscopic particles to hasten the
precipitation formation by coalescence. In the only
project using the method on a large scale, the concept
leans to the latter viewpoint (Lominadze et al., 1974).
The Transcaucasian Hydrometeorological Research
Institute (THRI) has used direct injection to seed clouds
with salt (NaCl). The idea is to produce rain from the
lower part of the cloud, thereby reducing the supply of
supercooled water for hailstone growth. Because the
THRI work involves the simultaneous application of
hygroscopic and crystallizing (ice nucleating) reagents,
it is impossible to determine how much of their reported
success is due to the use of the hygroscopic reagents.
d. Dynamic effects
Seeding for hail suppression by any of the methods
6 Colorado International Corporation, Boulder.
A. S. DENNIS
which would ordinarily be associated with increased
likelihood of hail. However, Krick and Stone (1975)
believe that dynamic effects could help suppress hail.
They and the ANLF A group in France have both noted
that seeding could release instability earlier in the day
than would otherwise occur, thereby reducing the
intensity of late afternoon storms, which are often the
worst hail producers. There are no experimental data in
hand to determine whether or not significant dynamic
effects have been produced on any hail suppression
project.
e. Summary
The tremendous variability of natural hailfalls per-
mits a wide range of opinion concerning the effective-
ness of hail suppression in general and the relative
effectiveness of different seeding techniques. It is
difficult to be optimistic about the value of additional
analyses of field projects, especially short-term projects
or those involving small areas, in determining the
degree of hail suppression which is possible. It is clear,
however, that the ideal result of 100% hail suppression
has eluded everyone, and it is likely that some projects
have been, in practical terms, ineffective.
4. Attempts to model hail suppression processes
a. Rationale for modeling
The failure of many of the world's hail suppression
projects to produce a statistically significant reduction
in hail at the ground signals a need for a critical
reexamination of the basic concepts upon which the
projects were based. Cloud modeling studies can play a
role in sorting out seeding effects, although hailstorms
are extremely complex phenomena and a given cloud
model can cover only certain aspects of a hailstorm and
perhaps only for fleeting periods of time.
Even if one could establish by field experiments the
effectiveness of a given method for hail suppression,
this still would not necessarily determine that the
guiding concept was the right one. In particular, judging
the relative merits of the cloud glaciation and competing
embryo concepts is almost impossible on the basis of
observations of hailstones at the ground. This is
because both concepts are usually realized through the
introduction of artificial ice nucleants, so that both
effects must operate in concert in a treated cloud.
b. Modeling of nucleation processes
The modeling studies to date show that even the idea
of freezing supercooled water by artificial nucleants
must be critically reexamined.In the complex hailstorm
environment, important hail growth sometimes occurs
185
in a matter of five minutes or less, and artificial ice
nucleants may act too slowly to have any effect.
Nucleation processes have been extensively studied
in the laboratory and field projects for many years and a
most extensive literature exists concerning them. 7 The
production of ice particles by silver iodide or other ice
nucleants involves four identifiable and separate
processes. They are deposition (or sublimation) nuclea-
tion, sorption nucleation (condensation followed by
freezing), immersion freezing, and contact freezing
(e.g., Young, 1974). Each of these processes, in turn,
depends on several factors, with the probability of
contact freezing, for example, affected by Brownian
motion, thermophoresis, and diffusiophoresis, to name
a few. In addition to the four processes mentioned, a
complete simulation would provide for ice multiplica-
tion processes, such as the postulated throwing off of
ice splinters when large cloud droplets are captured by
graupel.
c. Models of cloud glaciation concept
By cloud glaciation, we mean the transformation of
cloud water to cloud ice particles with negligible
fallspeeds.
Early attempts to model the cloud glaciation concept
yielded very discouraging results because of a tendency
to assume a requirement for total cloud glaciation at
some temperature close to ooc, say, -5 or -10°C, to
avoid enhanced hailstone growth in ice-water mixtures.
Thus, Weickmann (1964) was led to suggest a require-
ment for dispensing almost 8000 kg of dry ice per minute
to overseed a single severe hailstorm. Numerical
calculations on the growth of hail in various mixtures of
supercooled water and ice crystals by Dennis and Musil
( 1973) showed that large hail grows most rapidly around
- 30°C and that a hail suppression effect might well be
accomplished in many instances by moving the region
of cloud glaciation downward, so that glaciation is
completed at -25°C, say, rather than at -4ooc as
assumed for the natural case. Dennis and Musil (1973)
concentrated upon the reduction in hailstone diameter
at the ground resulting from slowing of the hailstone's
growth rate during its final descent. They found the best
chance of success to be in clouds with updraft maxima at
low temperatures of -30 or -40°C.
The calculations of English (1973) also indicate that
large hail would be suppressed by cloud glaciation at the
- 20°C level and that even glaciation by - 25°C would
reduce maximum hailstone diameters.
One of the most complete models of the cloud
7 See, for example, a series of papers by Dr. P. St. Amand and
others of the U.S. Naval Weapons Center in the Journal of Weather
Modification, Vol. 4, 1972, and reports and papers by Dr. N. Fukuta
ofthe University of Denver.
186
glaciation process is that presented at the Tashkent
Conference on Weather Modification by Kachurin eta/.
(1974). Their one-dimensional model took into account
both dynamic and microphysical effects associated
with the introduction of ice particles near the -soc level
in a hail cloud. They tested concentrations of 103 and 104
particles m- 3 • Their model showed, for example, an
increase in maximum updraft speed of 1 ms- 1 in one
particular simulation. The principal finding of Kachurin
and his associates is that the top of the supercooled
water zone is lowered from around - 38°C to about
-25°C, depending upon the ice particle concentrations
introduced, with accretion being important in removing
the cloud water. They viewed the benefit of the
glaciation as a slowing in hailstone growth rates, and
therefore presented results in terms of the concentra-
tions of hailstone embryos which could grow to
damaging sizes in certain periods of time following the
application of the seeding. For example, the concentra-
tion of embryos near the - 20°C level capable of
producing damaging hail in one hour fell from around 1
per cubic meter to 10-4 per cubic meter following
seeding. They emphasized that time considerations,
including the total lifetime of the cloud, must be brought
into consideration in determining whether or not the
embryos could complete their growth in time to fall as
damaging hail.
"The calculations show that competition for moisture between hail
embryos and artificially formed ice crystals does not in fact take
place. The effect of hail suppression is connected with the other
phenomenon, i.e., the reduction of the thickness of the layer of
intensive crystallization as a result of the enlargement of artificially
formed crystals in the presence of clearly marked coagulation
competition between them, which results in a reduction in the
proportion of hailstones falling to the ground as compared with hail
embryos ascending into the cloud anvil.·'
It will be noted that both the Dennis and Musil (1973)
and Kachurin et al. (1974) treatments assume the
introduction of ice particles at specified levels in the
cloud without taking account of how the crystals are
actually produced. English (1973) followed up her
hailstone growth calculations with some simple calcula-
tions on quantities of Agl needed for cloud glaciation
(perhaps 100 kg), but did not go into the details ofthe
glaciation processes.
MacCready and Vickers (1966) considered the
quantities of silver iodide or other agents that might be
required to glaciate a hailstorm updraft by scaling
upward from observations of smaller glaciated clouds
on the basis of updraft fluxes. They were optimistic
about the possibility provided the material could be
dispersed quickly, but they did not model the nuclea-
tion processes themselves or the time dependence of
the ice crystal growth processes.
Parcel calculations on the "drying up" of a cloud
PART II: HAIL SUPPRESSION
containing 1 to 10 ice particles cm-3 , with or without
accretion, show that it takes 2 to 5 min. This suggests
trouble for the glaciation concept in clouds with
updrafts exceeding 1 km min- 1 ( -15 m s- 1), which
unfortunately includes most severe hailstorms.
Recent studies by Young (1975) using a one-dimen-
sional parcel model with sophisticated microphysics
confirm earlier tentative findings.
"The strong updraft core is found to remain virtually all liquid until
homogeneous freezing occurs, Agi or dry ice seeding having
negligible effects with achievable seeding rates."
d. Competing embryo concept
1) INTRODUCTION
The competing embryo concept has generally been
favored over the complete glaciation concept in hail
suppression trials, because it requires less nucleating
agent and seems less likely to produce suppression of
rainfall as a side effect.
The competing embryo concept was put into
quantitative form as early as 1960 by Iribarne and
dePena ( 1962), who indicated that reductions in
hailstone diameter at the ground would result from
concentrations of embryos of the order of 10 per cubic
meter. Charlton and List (1972), in computer simula-
tions with a one-dimensional, steady-state cloud model,
also found that significant depletion of cloud water
should result from introduction of embryos in concen-
trations around 10 per cubic meter. However, the
competing embryo concept is subject to three serious
objections ranging from purely technical to basic and
fundamental as follows:
1) The production of competing embryos by silver
iodide crystals acting on cloud droplets in a strong
updraft is not feasible, as the particles produced in the
time available are not large enough to function as
realistic hail embryos.
2) If the artificial hail embryos are introduced di-
rectly, one must transport unrealistically large masses of
material or settle for an insignificant depletion of cloud
water. Results by English, as reported by Dennis
(1974), suggest that introducing one 1-mm embryo per
gram of air would reduce cloud water concentration by
less than 10-4 g kg- 1 near the 10 km level, a totally
insignificant effect. Young and Atlas (1974) find that
1-mm embryos would have to be introduced in
concentrations around 103 m- 3 to reduce the mass of
individual hailstones by a factor of 4 to 5. With a large
hailstorm ingesting 109 m3 of air per second, the
logistical problem of delivering the embryos is formi-
dable.
3) The assumption that the amount of hail to fall from
a cloud is constant and that the only effect of extra
A. S. DENNIS
embryos would be to reduce hailstone diameters
appears to be a dangerous oversimplification.
Hailstorms are sometimes very inefficient producers of
precipitation (e.g., Dennis et al., 1970). It is quite
conceivable that extra embryos could increase the total
mass of hail to fall from a storm (Browning and Foote,
1976).
In looking more closely at the competing embryo
concept, it is convenient to distinguish between those
situations where hail forms principally from super-
cooled raindrops and those where hail forms directly
from supercooled cloud droplets.
2) PRODUCTION OF EMBRYOS BY FREEZING OF
RAINDROPS
The accumulation of rainwater in clouds with updraft
speeds exceeding the terminal speed of raindrops was
suggested by Marshall (1961) as important to hail
formation. Rapid hailstone growth in rainwater ac-
cumulation zones above the ooc level became a central
point in the hailstorm models developed by Hitschfeld
and Douglas [see Douglas (1963)] and by Sulakvelidze
et al. (1967). Incidentally, there is no requirement in
nature that the accumulation zones always occur above
an updraft maximum, as Sulakvelidze thought, and the
more advanced cloud models do show precipitation
accumulation zones below as well as above updraft
maxima (e.g., Danielsen et al., 1972).
An array of precipitation particles in a cloud
functions as a screen, collecting the cloud particles
moving upward through the array. 8 Calculations of the
cloud water collected by a monodisperse precipitation
screen as a function of particle diameter show that
nearly all of the cloud water in an updraft can be
collected by a raindrop screen of, say, 5 g m- 3 of
rainwater about 1 km deep (Dennis, 1975). In extreme
cases, the local increase in total water concentration
may reach 0.1 g m- 3 sec- 1 (Dennis, 1975). Therefore,
rainwater accumulation zones tend to concentrate into
regions a kilometer or so deep and rapidly intensify-a
tendency directly opposite to that of most meteorologi-
cal fields, which is to diffuse.
Federer (1974) mentions a diameter of 4 km and a
depth of 2.5 km as typical for accumulation zones in
Switzerland, which were apparently identified and
delineated by radar. [Federer sometimes speaks of the
accumulation zones as "large-drop" zones.] Radar
data in some hailstorms suggest lifetimes of 10 min or so
for typical precipitation accumulations (probably
hailstones) forming in the upper parts of new convec-
8 Houghton (1968) emphasizes the importance of this process, but
refers to it as a "sweeping" action.
187
tive cells before the fallout of precipitation commences
(e.g., Dennis et al., 1970).
On the basis of studies by Dennis and Musil ( 1973)
and Chong and Chen (1974), the present author believes
that shedding of excess water rather than extremely
rapid growth is the norm for hailstones growing in a
rainwater accumulation zone. Nevertheless, such
zones above the ooc level pose a threat in that they
could support rapid growth of hailstones in high
concentrations [compare Kachurin et al. (1974)].
If the concept of hail suppression is to eliminate
zones of supercooled rainwater and simultaneously
produce new hail embryos, the direct injection
technique becomes appropriate and the amounts of
reagents required prove to be not excessive. Considera-
tion of the times involved for the process to operate
shows that direct collisions between the raindrops and
the silver iodide crystals will be rare, and that cloud
droplets frozen by collision or ice crystals formed by
direct deposition or condensation-freezing must be
important intermediaries in the total process. The
Soviet workers assumed that only 1 ice nucleus per 1000
or per 10,000 nuclei resulted in freezing of a large drop
to produce a hail embryo, and Lapcheva found some
experimental justification for this point of view in 1962
data on hailstone concentrations at the ground (Sulak-
velidzeet al., 1967, p. 169).11 may be, however, thatthe
concentration of extra hailstones deduced from the
observations (150-400 m- 3) was limited by the raindrop
concentration rather than the concentration of ar-
tificially produced ice crystals.
While collision freezing of cloud droplets would
likely be dominant around -5°C, direct deposition and
sorption would permit activation of all the potentially
active nuclei by the time the temperature fell as low as
-20°C. The resultant crystals of 2-3 ~.tm diameter
existing a minute or so after activation would be subject
to gravitational capture by raindrops. As a raindrop
sweeps out I liter or so of air per second, the conversion
of raindrops to hail embryos would proceed very
rapidly once the ice crystal concentration exceeded 1
liter- 1 • If this is so, calculations show that a single
accumulation zone can be frozen by the application of a
moderate quantity of Agi, say, 50-500 g, provided the
material is well dispersed and efficiency is maintained
around 1014 active nuclei per gram.
3) GROWTH OF LARGE HAIL FROM CLOUD WATER:
SEEDING WEAK ECHO REGIONS
Careful experimental observations in many storms
leave little doubt concerning the existence of severe
storms in which hail grows directly from supercooled
cloud droplets. This situation is most clearly exem-
plified in the steady-state supercells with their cyclonic
188
circulation and weak echo regions (e.g., Marwitz, 1972;
Browning and Foote, 1976). Simple simulations in a
two-dimensional, kinematic model by Musil et al.
(1975) have illustrated once again the manner in which
the weak echo region maintains itself despite invasions
of embryos from various positions around and above it.
Some pictures presented by Marwitz (1972) of echoes
penetrating a weak echo region (WER) from above
suggest complexities, which are likely related to the
tendency noted above for precipitation to concentrate
in small packets of 1 km or so in extent, which then
impart negative buoyancy to the surrounding air.
Young's (197 5) parcel model confirms the difficulty
posed above concerning generation of embryos from
cloud water in strong updrafts. Significant embryo
growth is possible only in regions with cloud base
updrafts less than 3 m s- 1 • This implies embryo
formation around the periphery but not in the cores of
strong updrafts.
We turn now to the tough problem, namely, "What is
the effect of seeding an updraft supporting a WER
surmounted by large and growing hailstones?" Musil
and Dennis (1970) considered this in their hailstone
screen model, in which hailstones grew by accretion of
cloud water passing upward through a hailstone array.
Their work was limited to hailstones in dry growth.
More complete calculations show that in a screen the
largest hailstones are relatively ineffective in extracting
and keeping any significant fraction of the upward
moving cloud water (Dennis, 1975). The large
hailstones are relatively effective at intercepting water
(Young and Atlas, 1974), but they become wet in the
presence of even moderate water concentrations at
temperatures as low as -30°C. The excess water is
believed to be shed from these stones and continue
upward, but in the form of raindrops rather than cloud
droplets. This shedding phenomenon would render
understandable the observed association of rain with
large hail at temperatures well below freezing, even in
clouds where precipitation initiation is primarily
through the ice process.
Although raindrops are shed from wet hailstones at a
temperature of0°C, their thermal relaxation time, with
the aid of evaporation, is only a few seconds. If any of
the constituent droplets collected contained ice nuclei,
freezing of a shed raindrop becomes possible as the
ambient temperature drops below the activation tem-
perature of the most effective bulk freezing nucleus.
Another mechanism for freezing the shed raindrops is
through their collisions with ice particles. Cloud
droplets frozen by collision and small ice crystals
produced by sorption (condensation-freezing), or by
direct deposition near the -l2°C level, are subject to
capture by the raindrops, as we have seen.
It is theoretically possible to cause the freezing of
shed raindrops by direct contact with silver iodide
PART II: HAIL SUPPRESSION
crystals, but calculations indicate that collision events
would be too slow to produce the required effects
unless tremendous nuclei concentrations were used.
The suggestion is that the effect of seeding the air
passing through WER's is not to slow the growth of the
largest hailstones near the edge ofthe WER but to slow
the growth of the stones located farther from the edge.
If the top of the WER is at a temperature of -10°C or
higher (warmer), the hail suppression effect should be
very substantial, because most of intercepted cloud
water will in fact be shed at least once. However, ifthe
top of the WER intersects the region of maximum
hailstone growth, where little or no shedding occurs,
and which is just below the level of homogeneous cloud
nucleation, seeding as presently understood cannot
affect the largest hailstones generated in the storm.
Proposed schemes to introduce additional competing
hailstones to the edge of the WER by seeding outside
the main updraft are difficult to implement in view of the
exceedingly complex trajectories followed by some of
the stones traversing that region (Musil et al., 1975). In
any case, such intervention might merely cause the
storm to start utilizing graupel particles from another
region as hail embryos. Even Musil's (1970) work with a
one-dimensional model is enough to illustrate the
complexity of the sorting processes that take place as
the potential embryos wend their way along intricate,
intersecting trajectories.
4) FEEDER CLOUD MODELS
Many hailstorms are multicellular. Project Hailswath
and the Hailstorm Models Project in South Dakota
called attention to the role of feeder clouds in multicell
hailstorms (Dennis et al., 1970), and Musil (1970)
developed a model of hailstone growth in these clouds.
In these time-dependent cases it is possible to seed the
feeder clouds before the updrafts become strong, so
that graupel particles are already in position to serve as
hail embryos as the updraft intensifies (Young, 1975).
This concept seems particularly appropriate in cases
with cold cloud bases where precipitation originates
through the ice process (e.g., Dye et al., 1974).
Seeding new updrafts was advocated by MacCready
and Vickers in 1966, and is actually applied in many
updraft seeding projects where pilots make a conscious
effort to seed developing cloud towers before the
updrafts become intense (e.g., Miller et al., 1975). A
need to seed feeder clouds efficiently led the Alberta
Hail Studies Group to develop droppable pyrotechnics
(Renick, 1970; Summers et al., 1971), which now form
the basis of the Nelspruit operation in South Africa. 9 A
9 The most recent reports from the Alberta group indicate a shift
toward more generalized early seeding in the "shelf" cloud around a
storm, as opposed to concentrating efforts upon feeder clouds already
approaching their mature stage.
A. S. DENNIS
shift away from total dependence on the accumulation
zone concept in the Soviet Union is reflected in a paper
by Abshaev and Kartsivadze (1974) on the need to seed
outside the region of existing radar echoes to introduce
hail embryos into regions of new cloud development,
and a similar shift appears to be taking place within the
National Hail Research Experiment (Browning, this
volume).
e. Implications for field projects
The discussion of this section suggests that the
effects of glaciogenic seeding for hail suppression
depend upon meteorological factors. Variations in
updraft speed and in the temperature at the level of
maximum updraft appear to be important. The steady-
state supercells with well developed weak echo regions
and recycling of embryos appear to pose a more difficult
challenge than do the pulsating storms where succes-
sive hail packets develop in individual cells and then fall
directly to the ground. It is doubtful that any field
experiment failing to allow for these factors in selection
of seeding treatment and in the statistical design could
ever provide convincing results on the possibility of hail
suppression by cloud seeding.
5. Summary and conclusions
A hailstone is the result of placing a small frozen
particle called a hailstone embryo in contact with a
supply of supercooled water. In the absence of any
conceivable method for totally eliminating hailstone
embryos, all hail suppression projects have been based
upon the elimination of supercooled water. We could
reduce the amount of supercooled water if we could
rearrange the cloud dynamics and microphysics so that
more precipitation fell from below the ooc level, but
moving the precipitation factory totally below the ooc
level appears to be out of the question for cumulonim-
bus clouds in regions with hail problems. Therefore, our
choices narrow down to the artificial freezing of the
supercooled water. The reduction in the supply of
supercooled water to each hailstone can be ac-
complished by direct glaciation of cloud water into
cloud ice, the freezing of supercooled rain (if present),
and the introduction of competing embryos. In prac-
tice, the concepts merge into the single one of providing
freezing centers in concentrations of 1 per liter or more
in the atmosphere.
In regions where part of the water substance has
already coalesced into raindrops, the further conver-
sion of a substantial fraction of it into ice pellets, which
then function as hail embryos, is fairly simple to
accomplish. The elimination of supercooled cloud
water in the absence of raindrops is more difficult
because each freezing event induced initially affects
only 1 p,g or so of water, but calculations suggest that
189
enough embryos can be introduced to affect liquid
water concentrations above the - 20°C level
everywhere except in the cores of strong updrafts.
Browning speaks in this volume of embryos which
possess an advantage in time and embryos which
possess an advantage in space. Providing competitors
for the embryos that possess an advantage in time is
fairly straightforward, even in the absence of rain. The
relatively slow development of the typical feeder cloud
or other new cumulus tower permits artificially formed
graupel to be mixed and reentrained into the updraft
core as the cell intensifies. This moves the cell quite
rapidly toward its mature stage, at which time it
typically produces only rain and small hail. Dealing
with the embryos that compete unfairly in space,
particularly the stones at the upper edge of a WER, is
more difficult. Models available to date suggest that the
sizes of the largest hailstones produced in such a storm
will not be affected by seeding because of our inability
to glaciate the strongest parts of the updraft or to
introduce serious competitors for those stones. How-
ever, the stones occupying positions away from the
edge of the weak echo region would find competitors
introduced by the seeding, that is, the ice pellets
produced by freezing the raindrops shed from the large
hailstones. The sizes of those hailstones would be
suppressed, although the total number of hailstones
might well increase.
The experience on hail suppression programs points
to the production of additional embryos rather than
glaciation of cloud water as the important mechanism in
practice. On some projects, apparent success has
attended seeding at rates of 1 kg h- 1 (Schleusener,
1968), whereas most numerical calculations on total
glaciation imply a need for seeding rates 10 to 100 times
as great. Penetrations through seeded convective cells
usually show snow and graupel particles around -10°C,
rather than very fine cloud ice particles (e.g., Mac-
Cready and Vickers, 1966; Williamson and Miller, 1967;
Cooper and Booker, 1969). Furthermore, evidence
from such hail projects as have been analyzed for
effects of the seeding upon rainfall suggest increases
rather than decreases (e.g., Schleusener, 1962; Schmid,
1967; Sulakvelidze et al., 1974). However, the uncer-
tainty about actual mechanisms remaining after so
many field projects, both applied and experimental, is
disconcerting. It argues for more definitive physical
measurements in future experiments, but the meas-
urements are not easily obtained.
As far as a choice of seeding method for future
projects is concerned, this seems to be a matter of
logistics and technical convenience. Broadcast seeding
has involved so far the use of larger quantities of Agi
than updraft seeding or direct injection, and that
without any convincing evidence of the superiority of
the broadcast technique. Neither modeling nor experi-
190
ence on field projects offers any clear cut means of
choosing between updraft seeding and direct injection
by droppable pyrotechnics, rockets, and shells. Al-
though direct injection seems to offer greater precision
in placement, calculations of uncertainties in rocket
trajectories and the fact that their burn times extend
over as much as 5 km suggest that they do not
concentrate material much more than aircraft flying
below cloud base. The supposed advantage of deliver-
ing the reagent in concentrated doses may be illusory in
any case.
The explosions of rockets and shells are sometimes
relied upon for the initial dispersal of the seeding agent,
and some droppable pyrotechnics are set to go off near
the ooc level so that the reagent has a chance to spread
by turbulence while being carried back up to its
effective level by the updraft. MacCready and Vickers
( 1966) also saw the need for dispersal of material, rather
than its concentration, as the main problem in updraft
seeding from aircraft.
Hygroscopic agents to promote coalescence and
thereby render easier the formation of hail embryos by
glaciogenic seeding may prove a useful part of the
ultimate hail suppression kit. Preliminary trials along
this line were made on the North Dakota Pilot Project in
1972 and some such effect, rather than rainout from
below the ooc level, is suspected by this writer as the
operative mechanism on the THRI Project of Dr.
Lominadze and his associates.
One point that is brought out by the calculations, and
this agrees with experience in the field, is that any
attempt to overpower storms with strong updrafts
solely by increasing silver iodide consumption is a futile
gesture. Increases in consumption by a factor of 10 or
100 or even 1000 do not significantly broaden the range
of conditions where hail suppression appears possible.
The problem of suppression of a large storm with a
WER remains unsolved and will require ingenuity
rather than brute force.
Acknowledgments. I thank Dr. Alex Long and Mr.
Jack Pellett for data incorporated in Table 2.
My views on hail suppression have evolved over the
years with inputs from many persons. These include my
co-workers at the Institute of Atmospheric Sciences
and in the National Hail Research Experiment, and
many operational meteorologists and research scien-
tists throughout the United States and in several foreign
countries. While it is difficult to single out any
individuals, it is perhaps appropriate to mention my
long association with Mr. T. J. Henderson and Dr.
Richard Schleusener in field experiments on
hailstorms, and illuminating discussions over the years
with Dr. Roland List and Dr. Paul MacCready. My
ideas also lean heavily on the outstanding work of Dr.
Sulakvelidze and his. colleagues in the Soviet Union.
PART II: HAIL SUPPRESSION
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Colorado and evidence of its effectiveness. Nubila, 5, 31-59.
- - , 1968: Hailfall damage suppression by cloud seeding-a review
of the evidence. J. Appl. Meteor., 7, 1004-1011.
- - , A. Koscielski, A. S. Dennis and M. R. Schock, 1972: Hail
experience on eight project seasons of seeding with silver iodide
in the northern Great Plains. J. Rech. Atmos., 6, Nos. I, 2, 3,
519-528.
- - , and W. R. Sand, 1964: Summary of data from test cases of
seeding thunderstorms with silver iodide in northeastern
Colorado, 1962, 1963, 1964. Prog. Rep. NSF Grant GP-2594,
Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, 159 pp.
Schmid, P., 1%7: On "Grossversuch III," a randomized hail
suppression experiment in Switzerland. Proc. 5th Berkeley
Symposium on Mathematical Statistics and Probability, Vol. 5,
University of California Press, Berkeley, 141-159.
Sulakvelidze, G. K., S. H. Bibilashvili, and V. F. Lapcheva, 1967:
Formation of precipitation and modification of hail processes.
[Israel Program for Scientific Translations, Jerusalem, 208 pp.]
- - , B. I. Kiziriya, and V. V. Tsykunov, 1974: Progress of hail
suppression work in the USSR. Weather and Climate Modifica-
tion, W. Hess, Ed., Wiley, 410-431.
Summers, P. W., G. K. Mather, and D. S. Treddenick, 1971: A
droppable pyrotechnic flare system for seeding hailstorms.
Preprints Int. Weather Modification Conf., Canberra, Amer.
Meteor. Soc., 349-354.
Weickmann, H. K., 1964: The language of hailstorms and hailstones.
Nubila, 6, 7-51.
Williamson, R. E., and A. H. Miller, 1967: Operational report on
on-site operation ofMRI Aztec aircraft, June 5 to June 17, 1967,
Rapid City, South Dakota. Meteorology Research Incorporated,
Altadena, Calif., 8 pp.
Young, K. C., 1974: The role of contact nucleation in ice phase
initiation in clouds. J. Atmos. Sci., 31, 768-776.
- - , 1975: Growth of the ice phase in strong cumulonimbus updrafts.
Pure Appl. Geophys., 113, 1005-1017.
- - , and D. Atlas, 1974: NHRE microphysics: an overview with
emphasis on hail growth and suppression. Pre prints 4th Weather
Modification Conf., Ft. Lauderdale, Amer. Meteor. Soc.,
119-124.
 Response to
"Hail suppression concepts and seeding methods"
W. F. HITSCHFELD

McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada

I found this a very interesting review. The approach
is critical, historically well based and I would think
generally accurate and fair to the many authorities
surveyed. I certainly appreciate that the reading of
these few pages has reminded me of critical ideas and
developments we lived with (some are vital still), but
whose origin or context one has tended to forget; and of
the significant balance and interrelation between North
American work and work in the USSR, and the important
contributions from Argentina and Switzerland.
If I am to be critical I will make one point: to the
uninitiated and quick reader, the review may convey a
false impression of validity of the suppression concepts
and a false sense of security that an adequate, or a
nearly adequate, level of precision has been reached in
modelling or in testing these concepts.
I do not mean that false claims are made; not at all.
But the theory and results sections are written with
such admirable restraint that the reader is not helped to
draw the depressing conclusion that after 15 or more
years, Concepts 1 to 3 (Table 1), are not much further
advanced than when they were born, and Concept 4 (to
which Dr. Dennis has made valuable contributions) is
not yet a significant guide to action. Nor will the reader
find an explicit reference to the fact that no correlation
is known of bad hail and a shortage of freezing nuclei.
The very brevity and appropriate sobriety of the
results section further bears out my point: in an entire
Monograph, Dennis' Section 3 (some 1100 words in
length) may be the only place facing up to hard reality,
and it is not the author's fault that more conviction
cannot be poured into the text at this point.
In fact then the review is helpful, precise, prudent. It
avoids hard conclusions and jtitlgments. What it does
suggest strongly is that there are promising avenues to
pursue. To this I can only say Amen.

193
 A Numerical Examination of Some Hail Suppression Concepts
KENNETH C. YOUNG

Institute of Atmospheric Physics, University of Arizona, Tucson

ABSTRACT

The glaciation, beneficial competition and trajectory lowering concepts are examined using numerical models of
the embryo formation region (EFR) and hail growth zone (HGZ). The glaciation concept is deemed economically
unfeasible. The beneficial competition concept is considered viable only when positive size-sorting is occurring
naturally and then is of limited value. The trajectory lowering concept appears to be the most attractive and
hygroscopic seeding at the base of the EFR is suggested as the most efficient means of implementing this concept.

1. Introduction 3) The trajectory lowering concept: The ultimate size

Three different concepts for reducing the sizes and
concentrations of hailstones falling from convective
storms have been discussed in the literature. All three
have formed working hypotheses for hail suppression
projects and have strongly influenced the choice of
seeding material and the location where the seeding
material was injected into the cloud. However, these
methods had not been subjected to rigorous examina-
tion until the past few years, largely due to our lack of
quantitative knowledge of the macro- and micro-
physical structure of hailstorms. This paper will
attempt to examine each of these three concepts
critically, employing two different numerical models of
hailstorm processes to assess the validity and viability
of each concept.
We shall identify the three hail suppression concepts
as the "glaciation," "beneficial competition" and
"trajectory lowering" concepts. These three concepts
have been described by Sulakvelidze et al. (1974); their
basic tenets are as follows:
1) The glaciation concept: The growth of hailstones is
considered to be dependent upon an adequate supply of
supercooled water. If this supply could be significantly
reduced, the growth of hailstones would be retarded.
Converting the supercooled water to ice particles by
freezing or sublimation (glaciation) effectively removes
water from the hail growth process since the collection
cross section for hailstones collecting ice particles is
believed to be much smaller than for hailstones
collecting water drops.
2) The beneficial competition concept: Under this
concept, the total amount of supercooled water
available for hailstone growth is considered to be fixed.
If the number of hailstones could be increased, then the
share of the supercooled water that each would receive
would be reduced and hailstone sizes would be reduced
accordingly. Smaller hailstones would fall more slowly
and lose a larger fraction of their mass by melting,
thereby decreasing the total hail mass.
195
attained by a hailstone is largely determined by the
length of time it spends within the hail growth zone
(HGZ) and the liquid water available for its growth. If
the sizes of the largest embryos could be increased,
they would follow a lower trajectory through the HGZ
while encountering approximately the same amount of
liquid water. This would serve to reduce the sizes
attained by the largest hail embryos while reducing the
supply of supercooled water available for growth at
higher levels.
2. A conceptual model of hail formation and growth
The evaluation of a hail suppression concept depends
to a large extent on the conceptual models of hailstorms
and hailstone growth that are assumed. In this paper,
the conceptual model of hailstone formation, growth
and fallout is based on the field observations conducted
as part of the National Hail Research Experiment
(NHRE) and the Alberta Hail Study (ALHAS). Some of
these findings are presented by Browning (1976) for a
"supercell" or steady-state hailstorm and by Chisholm
(1973) and Browningetal. (1976) for the more common,
multi-cell hailstorms.
Fig. 1 presents a schematic model of a multi-cell
hailstorm showing the locations of the embryo forma-
tion region (EFR), the hail growth zone (HGZ) and the
hail fallout zone. Although the EFR and HGZ are
spatially contiguous in the case of the steady-state
storm, it is probably preferable to consider them as
temporally contiguous in the case of the multi-cell
hailstorm. In this sense, one may interpret the distance
axis to be a time axis, showing the evolution of cells
within the hailstorm.
The embryo formation region is considered to be a
region of relatively weak updrafts, on the order of a few
meters per second, located so that embryos formed in
the EFR would be able to fall into the tilted, main
updraft. Weak updrafts in the EFR are required so as to
allow sufficient time for large particles to grow.
196 PART II: HAIL SUPPRESSION

-----'>.... STORM
---r- MOTION

-40

~ --'
(/)
::!!
w
a:
~ -20
1-
a: r
w
a.
::!!
"'w
r
w
1-

DISTANCE FROM LEADING EDGE (km)

FIG. I. Cross section of a multi-cellular hailstorm showing the embryo formation region
(EFR), hail growth zone (HGZ), and hail fallout zone. The radar reflectivity factors are
indicated by dashed lines (in dBZ); general circulation patterns are indicated by arrows. The
horizontal distance axis may be interpreted as a time axis, showing the evolution of a single
cell.

Otherwise, particles would remain small and be lost to
the thunderstorm anvil. The EFR cannot extend above
the -40°C level since homogeneous freezing of the
liquid phase would remove the supercooled water
required for growth of the potential hail embryos.
Once hail embryos have been formed in the EFR,
they are pictured as falling into the stronger updrafts
within the hail growth zone (HGZ). Updrafts in excess
of 10 to 15m s- 1 within the HGZ are required to support
the hailstone while it is growing and prevent it from
falling out prematurely. In addition, an ample supply of
supercooled water is necessary for hailstone growth. In
this conceptual model, the supercooled water supply
consists of small droplets, carried upward with the main
updraft with very little dilution or entrainment, i.e., the
liquid water content is nearly adiabatic. A third
requirement of the HGZ is that it be bounded by the
- 40°C isotherm at the top and by the - zooc isotherm at
the bottom. The upper bound reflects the level of
complete glaciation imposed by homogeneous freezing;
the lower bound reflects the requirement that the
environment of the growing hailstone be cold enough so
that the hailstone may freeze most (if not all) of the
water it accretes. Hail growth below the -zooc level is
more likely to result in shedding or in soft ''slushy'' hail
which is more likely to melt and less likely to cause
damage.
The hail fallout zone refers to the region where
hailstones are able to fall to the ground. This region is
not necessarily devoid of rain and probably overlaps the
rain fallout zone. However, one may anticipate that
coincidence of falling hail and rain below the oac
isotherm will cause a more rapid melting of the hail and
the location of hail fallout at the ground will be
somewhat distinct from that of maximum rain fallout.
The hail fallout zone is not necessarily a region of
downdrafts since large hailstones may fall downward
while still within fairly strong updrafts although such
loading of the updraft would serve to decrease its
buoyancy.
This conceptual model is consistent with the overall
radar features of hailstorms as well as the circulations
based on aircraft penetrations and Doppler radar
observations, e.g., Browning (1976) and Browning et
al. (1976). Subsequent discussions of hail growth will be
in reference to this conceptual model.
3. The glaciation concept
The growth of hail embryos to hailstone sizes in the
HGZ is clearly dependent upon an adequate supply of
supercooled water entering the HGZ from below. If this
supply of supercooled water could be decreased
significantly, then the growth of hailstones could be
retarded and they would be more likely to melt before
reaching the ground or at least be smaller than they
would otherwise have been. If this reduction in the
supercooled water content reaching the HGZ is
accomplished by converting the water drops to ice
particles having a similar mass distribution, then we
KENNETH C. YOUNG
shall refer to the suppression method as "glaciation."
The application of this concept to the HGZ will be
referred to as glaciation concept II.
A second application of this concept involves
reducing the supercooled water present in the EFR.
This would serve to reduce the sizes of hail embryos
reaching the HGZ or could even prevent hail embryos
from falling into the HGZ. This concept will be referred
to as glaciation concept I.
Such glaciation concepts when applied to updrafts
containing small droplets may increase the water mass
transferred to the cumulonimbus anvil and may result in
a decrease in precipitation. This aspect of glaciation is
important to consider since the economic benefits of
hail suppression cannot be isolated from the economic
disbenefits of rain suppression.
Glaciation may be induced by seeding with an ice
nucleant such as silver iodide (Agl) or by seeding with a
coolant such as dry ice or liquid propane. Clearly,
seeding with a coolant requires that the seeding aircraft
be positioned close to the ooc level within the main
updraft. Seeding by aircraft with an ice nucleant may be
carried out at cloud base, allowing the updraft to carry
the material into the supercooled region of the cloud.
Both of these methods may result in a highly
non-uniform distribution of the seeding material. The
model used here assumes that the seeding material is
uniformly dispersed with the updraft and the seeding
rates should therefore be considered order of mag-
nitude estimates.
The glaciation concept assumes that growing
hailstones will not collect ice particles or at least, their
collection kernel for ice particles versus water drops of
the same mass is significantly smaller. This may not be a
valid assumption in the case of hailstones undergoing
"wet" growth since ice crystals may "stick" to the
"wet" hailstones.
a. Discussion ofthe model
The model used to examine the glaciation concept is
the microphysical, parcel model described by Young
(1974a, 1975a, 1975b). The use of a parcel model is
justified here since the particles being considered do not
grow large enough to have appreciable fall velocities.
The results of the parcel model given later describing
the growth of hail embryos should be considered in
terms of the concentrations and distributions of large
particles rather than attaching any significance to the
specific sizes given. The model is felt to give reasonable
estimates of the production of large particles. A brief
summary of the model follows.
The model activates cloud condensation nuclei
(CCN) according to the calculated supersaturation and
197
a CCN spectrum given by n = 710 S 0 · 55 where n is the
number of CCN (cm- 3 ) activated at and below a water
supersaturation of S (in percent). This spectrum is
considered typical of continental air masses and results
in drop concentrations ~ 500 cm-3 • Droplets grow by
condensation and coalescence. The numerical solution
to the stochastic collection equation and the drop
breakup treatment are described by Young (1975a).
The ice phase is initiated by depostion and contact
freezing nucleation. Size distributions of natural and
artificial nuclei were incorporated into the model.
Collection rates (for contact nucleation or removal by
scavenging) were calculated for Brownian motion,
thermophoresis and diffusiophoresis (see Young,
1974b). The activity of ice nuclei was based on
laboratory studies by Vali (1973).
Ice crystals are permitted to grow in a variety of
habits, including columns, needles, plates and den-
drites. The growth habit is dependent on the crystal
temperature, the vapor density excess between the
environment and the crystal surface and the crystal
dimensions. This treatment reproduces the observed
growth maxima at -5 and -15°C (see, for example,
Ono, 1970) as well as several other important features of
ice crystal growth. Ice particles are allowed to collect
water droplets in a stochastic manner with collection
efficiencies based on Ranz and Wong (1952) for
columns and Pitter and Pruppacher (1974) for plates.
The onset of riming on crystals predicted by the model
was noted to agree with Ono's (1970) observations.
The model assumes an adiabatic updraft, i.e., no
entrainment. The input conditions include a cloud base
at +9°C and 700mb. The updraft is assumed to undergo
a constant acceleration from 2.8 km (cloud base) to 10.8
km (near the -40°C level), reaching a maximum value
four times that at the cloud base.
Dry ice seeding was simulated by introducing small ice
crystals (2 ~.tm radius), equivalent in number to 1010
crystals per gram of dry ice. Silver iodide seeding was
simulated by the addition of nuclei to the artificial ice
nucleus category. Nuclei with radii of 0.05 ± 0.02 JLm
were used. The model of ice nucleation activity resulted
in almost complete activity by - 20°C at water satura-
tion for the Agl nuclei. The effects of seeding were
assumed to be uniformly distributed within the updraft.
b. Evaluation of the glaciation concept
Previous estimates of the amount of seeding material
which would be required in order to implement the
glaciation concept II supported the contention that such
a hail suppression method, even if deemed advanta-
geous in principle, would in practice require inordinate
amounts of material. English (1973) estimates that 4000
198
-30
u ice seeding. A seeding rate of 1000 g min-I km- 2 would
~ -20
99%
w
a:
:J
f--
<I
a:
w
0..
:::;:
w
-10 WATER
f--
W=5
0~~~--~--~--L--L---L--~~--~~
0.1 I 10 100
SEEDING RATE (gm min- 1 km-2)
FIG. 2. Extent of glaciation expressed as the fraction ofliquid water
remaining versus height (temperature scale) and Agl-seeding rate.
Cloud base is at +9°C; updraft undergoes a constant acceleration
from 5 m s- 1 at cloud base to 20 m s- 1 at the -40°C level.
g min-I km- 2 would be required to glaciate the updraft
beneath the HGZ (by the -20°C level). However, it is
not necessary to deplete all the supercooled water
reaching the HGZ in order to reduce the growth of
hailstones.
Fig. 2 shows the fraction of liquid water remaining
as a function of height (expressed in terms of
temperature) within the updraft for a range of Agi-
seeding rates. If we consider the lower bound of the
HGZ as the - 20°C level and consider a 50% depletion of
the liquid water as being sufficient to suppress hail
growth, the 5-20 m s-I updraft as may be expected in
a typical multi-cell hailstorm would require
10 g min-I km- 2 of Agl. In comparison, Young (1975b)
shows that a 10-40 m s-I updraft profile would
require 100 g min-I km- 2 for a similar effect. Updrafts
of this magnitude may occur in well-developed super-
cells. If we deem that a 10% depletion ofthe liquid water
by the -20°C level is adequate, these seeding rates may
be reduced by a factor of 10. Complete glaciation, on
the other hand, would require seeding rates comparable
to those given by English. When we consider that these
seeding rates would need to be applied over an updraft
area of perhaps 20-50 km 2 , then one would need to
expend 100-5000 g min-I of Agl.
Implementation of glaciation concept I within the
weaker updrafts of the EFR is easier to achieve. Young
(1975b) shows that a 50% reduction in liquid water by
the - 20°C level for a 2-8 m s-I updraft profile may
be achieved with a Agi-seeding rate of only 1
PART II: HAIL SUPPRESSION
g min-I km- 2 • Thus, an expenditure of 20-50 g min-I
of Agi within the EFR appears adequate to substan-
tially reduce the growth of hail embryos.
Dry ice (or coolant) seeding offers an advantage over
ice nucleants in that full activity may be achieved quite
close to 0°C. Fig. 3 presents the fraction of liquid
water remaining versus height and seeding rate for dry
be required to produce a 50% depletion in liquid water
by the -20°C level for a 10-40 m s- 1 updraft profile.
Note that although dry ice produces only 10I0 crystals
per gram compared to 10 15 for Agi, this disadvantage is
nearly offset by the advantage gained in having a lower
activity threshold.
The fate of the ice particles produced by seeding has a
direct bearing on the precipitation efficiency of the
system. Studies by Foote and Fankhauser (1973)
indicate that roughly 50% of the moisture entering the
storm at low levels remains aloft, presumably forming
the thunderstorm anvil. Of the remaining moisture, 70%
is lost to evaporation in the hail fallout zone and rain
fallout zone and the remainder reaches the ground as
precipitation.
Seeding rates adequate to induce significant glacia-
tion within the HGZ would result in particles smaller
than 100 JLm radius (see Fig. 4) for the 4-16 m s-I
updraft profile or greater). Such particles would be
carried upward in the updraft and out into the
-25
u
!!....
w
a: -15
:::>
~
a:
w
Q_
:::;:
w -10
1-
-5
WATER
W=IO
oL---~--~----~---L--~----~--_j
10 2 10 3 104
SEEDING RATE (kgm min-I km-2)
FIG. 3. Extent of glaciation as in Fig. 2 except the seeding agent is dry
ice and the updraft accelerates from lO to 40 m s- 1 •
KENNETH C. YOUNG
thunderstorm anvil, being lost to the precipitation
process.
The fate of the ice particles resulting from glaciation
in the EFR is less clear. A seeding rate of
I g min- 1 km- 2 would result in embryos of 0.5 mm
radius whereas seeding rates of 10 g min km 2 would
be required to keep particle sizes below 100 p,m radius.
The larger particles may be expected to enter the HGZ
whereas the smaller ones would probably be lost
to the anvil.
Depending on the temperature at the highest point of
the lowest (most favored) trajectory and the sizes of the
embryos produced, it is possible that the sizes of the
largest hailstones could be increased by decreasing the
sizes of the hail embryos (as will be discussed in
Sections 4 and 5). Smaller embryos would follow higher
trajectories and have more time to grow while
encountering about the same amount of liquid water as
larger (natural) embryos would have in the absence of
seeding. Thus, under the glaciation concept, the
seeding rate for hail suppression must be adequate to
restrict the growth of ice particles so that all such
particles rise above the homogeneous freezing level and
are not allowed to enter the HGZ.
c. Summary of the glaciation concept
We may consider two types of glaciation, namely
glaciation of the EFR (type I) and glaciation of the HGZ
(type II). The latter appears unfeasible due to the large
quantities of seeding agent required. The former
appears achievable but has the risk of increasing the
maximum hailstone sizes if the seeding agent is not
present in sufficient quantities or is not adequately
dispersed.
Both glaciation concepts would seem very likely to
reduce total precipitation as well as total hail. Borland
and Snyder (1975) show that a 5% decrease in
precipitation would negate the benefits of a 20%
reduction in hail damage. These considerations argue
against the glaciation concept as a suitable method for
hail suppression.
4. The beneficial ·competition concept
The ability of hailstones to grow in the HGZ is
governed by the supercooled water available for their
growth. In the simplest view of competition, increasing
the total number of hailstones would increase the
competition for the liquid water present and as a result,
the ultimate sizes of the hailstones would be decreased.
Smaller hailstones would be expected to fall more
slowly and lose a larger fraction of their mass by melting
within the hail fallout zone. This would be expected to
reduce the total hail mass which is positively correlated
with hail damage (Gokhale, 1975).
199
1000
500 w~2
E
~
(/)
::::>
0
<l
0:: 200
w
...J
u
i=
0::
<l
a..
10 100
0.1
SEEDING RATE (gm min-I km-2)
FIG. 4. Maximum particle radius by the - 35°C level for different
updraft profiles, presented as a function of Agl-seeding rate.
This simplistic view neglects several important
aspects of the growth of a population of hailstones.
First, not all potential hail embryos actually grow to
become hailstones. The embryo size and the height at
which embryos enter the HGZ are important factors in
the selection process. The larger and lower embryos are
generally those most likely to be selected to become
hailstones if the concentration of hail embryos is large.
The reverse is true if the embryo concentration is low.
Even if more embryos of the proper sizes are
produced within the EFR and the concentration of
growing hailstones is increased, it is not clear that
competition will have been increased. Taking a simple
example, consider a model with no turbulence so that
hailstone trajectories are smooth curves. If we start
with several hail embryos of identical size but stacked
one above the other and allow these to proceed through
the HGZ, their trajectories will diverge (due to
successive depletion of the liquid water) and hailstones
following the lower trajectories will not be influenced
by those above. Now, ifwe increase the number of hail
embryos that we start with but keep them stacked
vertically, we may still count a number of trajectories,
upward from the lowest, for which hailstones would
encounter essentially the same amount of liquid water
and therefore would grow to the same sizes as before. In
other words, there is no competition in this case.
Competition resulting from intersecting trajectories
is very limited since only a very narrow region of
intersection permits competition. Competition in ad-
vance of the radar first echo (or radar overhang) is
negligible due to the small embryo sizes. Thus, the
intersection of two competing trajectories must occur
200
within the radar echo where hail embryo sizes are large
enough to significantly deplete the liquid water. This
depletion serves to reduce the likelihood of trajectory
intersection. Thus, it is anticipated that such effects are
not important in assessing competition.
It is evident that competition requires some
mechanism for interchanging the positions of the
hailstones within the HGZ. Turbulence may be
expected to play such a role. A given level of turbulence
may be expected to mix the hailstones over a given
height within the HGZ. Countering this are the
differences in particle sizes and the divergence of
trajectories resulting from the increasing depletion of
liquid water with height as the lowest hailstones grow at
the expense of the higher hailstones. Thus, the range in
height over which the hailstones are effectively mixed is
increased for higher intensities of turbulence and is
decreased for greater concentrations of hailstones. The
range in height over which hailstones of different sizes
are mixed decreases as their size disparity increases.
Trajectories within this range will be termed "equiva-
lent" trajectories since hailstones following such
trajectories may be expected to encounter an "equiva-
lent" amount of liquid water and therefore will
experience a similar growth history.
In order to maximize the number of equivalent
trajectories, it is clear that the sizes of the hail embryos
must be made more uniform. This will increase the
range over which mixing of the growing particles may
occur, maximizing the potential for competition. It will
be shown that simply increasing the concentration of
hail embryos is not sufficient to promote competition.
The third aspect of the beneficial competition
concept involves the melting of the hailstones within
the hail fallout zone. The problem of hailstone survival
in the hail fallout zone has not been examined carefully
at present and is treated only qualitatively in this paper.
We shall examine two aspects of beneficial competi-
tion. First, beneficial competition requires that we
modify the size spectrum of hail embryos, producing
many more embryos ofthe largest sizes. It is necessary
to determine how such changes may be produced.
Second, we must ascertain whether or not such changes
in the hail embryo spectrum actually promote beneficial
competition within the HGZ.
a. Modification of the hail embryo spectrum
The size spectrum of embryos produced within an
isolated EFR 1 is determined by the dominant precipita-
tion mechanism. If the warm rain (coalescence)
mechanism is dominant, the drop size spectrum is
exponential and the resulting ice particle spectrum will
1 The role of mixing or recycling in determining the spectrum of
large particles is discussed in section c.
PART II: HAIL SUPPRESSION
tend to resemble the drop spectrum. Since larger drops
are more likely to freeze than smaller drops (whether by
contact or immersion freezing or by collection of small
ice crystals), the ice particle spectrum will tend to
consist of relatively few large particles if ice nuclei are
scarce or it will tend toward an exponential distribution
if ice nuclei are abundant.
If the ice crystal (graupel) process is dominant, the
resulting ice particle size spectrum is largely deter-
mined by the ice nucleation rate. Once an ice particle is
formed, it grows by sublimation to a size where it can
begin collecting water drops (accretion). The sublima-
tion growth process tends to narrow the size spectrum;
the accretion process tends to broaden the size
spectrum. Since both of these processes are dependent
on the crystal habit, both are influenced by the
temperature regime in which the crystal forms and
grows. Thus, we may expect that the resultant ice
particle size spectrum is also influenced by the
temperature regime in which ice crystals grow to sizes
large enough to permit accretion.
The ice nucleation rate is dependent on the dominant
mode of nucleation and the in-cloud conditions.
Unfortunately, our knowledge of ice nucleation proc-
esses is sketchy at best and can provide only tentative
conjectures regarding actual ice particle production
rates in clouds. Contact freezing nucleation rates are
determined by the aerosol-droplet collection rates
which are dependent on the drop size spectrum, the
nucleus size spectrum and, to a lesser degree, on the
updraft velocity. Deposition and condensation freezing
nucleation rates are determined mainly by the updraft
velocity. Thus, we may conceive of situations where
the contact nucleation rate may be either faster or
slower than the rates by deposition or condensation
freezing. The details of these processes, particularly
near the threshold of detection of activity, are of major
importance in determining the size distribution of the
largest ice particles.
There are a number oftentative conclusions we may
draw regarding the role of ice nucleation in forming the
ice particle size spectrum. Natural ice nuclei may be
expected to exhibit slower nucleation rates than
artificial ice nuclei since the former are comprised of a
variety of chemically different substances and their size
spectrum is relatively broad. Thus, one may expect
natural ice nuclei to become activated over a wider
range of temperatures than artificial nuclei and, in an
updraft, this implies that their activation will be spread
over a longer period of time. Contact nucleation will
precede (in an updraft) other modes of nucleation due to
its more favored temperature threshold, as long as
aerosol collection occurs. The most rapid nucleation
rates occur with coolant seeding (e.g., dry ice).
Only a small fraction of the ice particles produced
KENNETH C. YOUNG
z
Q 8 m s- 1 at 10.8 km. The "continental" CCN spectrum
1-
<l
a::
:J 10
~
(f)
a::
w
!l.
:J
(f) /
w
(.)
/ The formation of ice particles via the graupel process
/ Agi
-5 -10 -15
TEMPERATURE (°C)
FIG. 5. Fraction of0:05 JLffi radius Agl particles active by deposition
(below w~ter satu~ation, rep~esented by the dashed line) or by
condensation freezmg nucleation (above water saturation) versus
temperature and ice supersaturation.
become directly involved in the hail growth process by
being potential hail embryos. English (1973) estimates
the concentration of hailstones aloft for several
Canadian hailstorms to be 0.1 to 1 m- 3 • Dye eta!. (1974)
report concentrations of graupel in northeast Colorado
cumuli to be on the order of 1 liter- 1 • These
concentrations reflect the range of ice particle concen-
trations that are of concern in this discussion.
1) DISCUSSION OF THE MODEL
The model used in this section to assess the size
spectrum of embryos produced in the EFR is the same
as that described in Section 3a except that more recent
data on ice nucleation have been incorporated. Figs. 5
and 6 present deposition and condensation freezing
nucleation activity for Agl and natural ice nuclei
respectively, based on Fukuta and Schaller (1976). The
activity for Agl nuclei assumes 0.05 ~-tm radius particles
and that the probability a given nucleus will be active is
directly proportional to its surface area, i.e., a 0.1~-tm
radius nucleus would be four times as likely to be active
as a 0.05 ~-tm radius nucleus. The activity for natural
nuclei is assumed to be an inherent property of the
nucleus with no delay in nucleation once the appropri-
ate conditions of temperature and supersaturation are
attained. Contact freezing nucleation is treated as
before except using activity based on Figs. 5 and 6. The
activity of a given nucleus by the contact freezing mode
is related to its deposition activity at water saturation
according to Cooper's (1974) theory. This theory
concludes that the contact activity at a given supercool-
ing is roughly equivalent to the deposition activity at
water saturation at twice the supercooling. The
201
pertinent temperature in this regard is the drop
temperature.
The model assumes a constantly accelerating up-
draft, initially 2 m s- 1 at cloud base (2.8 km, +9°C) to
was assumed and seeding rates of 1 g min- 1 km- 2 were
used for all the seeded cases.
2) HAIL EMBRYO SPECTRA VIA THE GRAUPEL PROCESS
assumes that the water drops present are relatively
small (<50 ~-tm radius) and that the ice particles will
grow into recognizable crystal habits during some
portion of their growth. In this section, we will restrict
our attention to a single, representative case and show
that the ice particle spectrum which results from the
graupel process can indeed be narrowed by the addition
of artificial ice nucleants under the model of ice
nucleation assumed here.
The ice particle spectrum resulting from the assumed
model for natural ice nucleation is shown in Fig. 7. This
spectrum exhibits a pronounced "tail" in concentra-
tions of 0.1 m- 3 and it is these particles that one might
expect to follow favored trajectories and grow into
hailstones. The concentration of particles larger than
100 ~-tm radius is on the order of one per liter and is
typical of ice particle concentrations as measured in
northeast Colorado cumuli by Dye et al. (1974).
Measurement techniques do not permit determination
of particles in concentrations less than 1 m- 3 in situ.
The addition of Agl nuclei serves to remove the tail
which is present in the natural case. It is interesting to
note that this occurs whether or not the contact freezing
or deposition/condensation freezing modes of ice
nucleation are dominant. The 0.2 ~-tm radius nuclei
z
Q
~ ~
a:
~ 10
<t / 0.1%----:::::1
/
(f)
a:
w
Cl.
::J
(f)
5 /
/ NATURAL
/ -5 -10 -15 -20 -25
TEMPERATURE (°C)
FIG. 6. Fraction of0.3 JLffi radius natural ice nuclei active as in Fig. 5.
202 PART II: HAIL SUPPRESSION

3) HAIL EMBRYO SPECTRA VIA THE COALESCENCE

PROCESS

The ice particle spectra that result from a raindrop

z
Q
spectrum are markedly different from those which
!;:( result from a cloud droplet spectrum. Once large
g: 100
\ raindrops freeze, they may be assumed to continue
z
w
u
z \ their growth by collection, without breakup and
8 \ without an intermediate stage of sublimation growth.
w 10
_j

S! \ Since the largest drops are the most likely to freeze, one
f-
a: may expect that the smaller drops will be removed both
rt I by freezing and by being collected by the larger,
w
::: \ already-frozen drops. Thus, the number of drops frozen
!;:(
_j
::J
\ depends on how rapidly the freezing process takes place
~ 0.1 \ since the slower the freezing rate, the greater the
u
chance that a drop will be collected by a previously
\
frozen drop and will not contribute to the number of ice
0.02 particles.
In order to simulate the ice particle spectra resulting
FIG. 7. Ice particle size spectra at the -30°C level in an updraft from the freezing and collection of raindrops, one drop
which undergoes constant acceleration from 2 to 8 m s-• between per cubic meter of 50 p,m radius was added at the cloud
cloud base ( +9°C) and the -40°C level. Cloud does not undergo
coalescence conversion. The natural case is compared with three base with all other parameters held the same as
sizes of Agl nuclei assuming a fixed seeding rate of l g min-• km- 2 • previously described. One may assume that this
simulates the ingestion of giant dust particles in their
possible role as collection centers as suggested by
exhibit virtually no contact freezing behavior whereas
Rosinski et al. (1971). This could also simulate
the 0.05 p,m radius nuclei are largely activated by
hygroscopic seeding. Here, it is merely a convenient
contact nucleation. As shown in Fig. 8, the rates of ice
way to achieve a raindrop spectrum with liquid water
particle production are similar for each Agl case for
contents comparable to the previous case. According to
concentrations below one per liter. This similarity in ice
particle production rates would seem fortuitous and
may only be an artifact of the particular model of I
nucleation used here. I
It may be concluded that the breadth of the ice
particle size spectrum is dependent on the rate at which -30 .
/ I/ I
NATURAL- I

ice particles are produced. If the production rate is low, ' I

as in the natural case, the resulting spectrum will be / / I

-25 0.021'-m - / / 1
broad. If the production rate is high, the resulting ' I
u 0.011'-m--/..-.-,' J
spectrum will be narrow. Clearly, Agl seeding greatly !!.-

increases the rate at which ice particles are produced

_j
w
! / I
>
w -20
/ / I
and may be expected to narrow ths size spectrum of ice _j
/ ! I
particles which serve as hail embryos. w
a:
:::J I
l /I
It should be noted that the initiation of ice particle
I

production in the natural case occurs so that the first

~
a:
w
-15
/ 1
/!~
0.. / / / 0.051'-m
formed particles will experience the sublimation growth :;:
w /. ,,' /
maximum near -l5°C and grow much more rapidly to f-
-10 / //
sizes where accretional growth becomes important than / . ~~/
......-><...--
would particles formed later. This may account for the
"tail" on the natural distribution in Fig. 7 and suggests
- ::-::_./;.-:-;::::~----
.

that any ice nucleant which can produce ice particles in

-5
----~-:L

concentrations above one per liter by - l0°C will serve

in the same manner as Agl. The sublimation growth
minimum near -soc may serve to minimize the effect of 10 1 10 2 10 3 10 4 10 5
PARTICLE CONCENTRATION (m- 3 )
nucleation rate on the resulting ice particle spectrum
when the particles are formed at warmer temperatures FIG. 8. The total concentration of ice particles as a function of
height (temperature scale) corresponding to the conditions given in
(below this level). Fig. 7.
KENNETH C. YOUNG
I
I I
;;-
'E
z 10
Q
wt-
><(
_Q:
~~--
...Jz
::::>w
:::!;~
---------------
----------- ',
=>O
uu
w
...J
~ 0.1-
Q:
(f.
I I I I
0.1
PARTICLE RADIUS (em)
FIG. 9. Ice particle size spectra at the - 20°C level. Cloud is the same as in Fig. 7
except that one 50 p,m radius drop cubic meter was ingested through the cloud base,
producing a coalescence conversion to a raindrop spectrum by the -l0°C level.
Agl-seeding rate is 1 g min-' km-2 with nuclei sizes of 0.05p,m radius.
this model, such a concentration of collection centers
results in a 20 dBZ radar reflectivity factor by the -10°C
level.
The natural ice nucleation model results in a bimodal
spectrum with the large particles distributed as shown
in Fig. 9. The large particle concentration of 1.5 m- 3 is
comparable to the in-cloud hailstone concentrations
estimated by English (1973); the much larger concentra-
tions of particles smaller than 100 JLm radius may be
assumed not to grow to hailstone sizes but rather would
probably contribute to the rain.
The addition of Agl enhances the freezing rate of the
raindrops and thereby increases the number oflarge ice
particles. The concentrationofthese particles is 35m-3 ,
roughly 20 times that in the natural case. This is clearly
higher than English's (1973) estimate of natural
hailstone concentrations and it might be assumed that
such an increase in concentration would promote
beneficial competition. However, this increase in
concentration is accompanied by a decrease in hail
embryo sizes which may tend to increase hailstone
sizes, countering the effects of competition.
b. Competition in the hail growth zone
The concepts of a competition and selection are
intimately related in the growth of a population of
hailstones. We have noted that the zone of trajectories
that may be considered equivalent is determined by the
level of turbulence, the concentration of embryos
within the zone and the sizes of the embryos under
consideration. These factors also serve to determine
which embryos will be selected to become hailstones
and which will not.
Turbulence within the HGZ serves to select embryos
on a random basis to become hailstones. If the random
203
I
.....-Agi
/NATURAL -
--------,
''
' II
I -
I
I
I
I
I I I 1\ ..1. I\ 1 I
1.0
components of an embryo's trajectory serve to
maximize the liquid water it encounters within the HGZ
(a function of position and time spent) the embryo will
be more likely to grow into a hailstone; if the random
components of the trajectory serve to minimize the
liquid water encountered, the embryo will be less likely
to become a hailstone. Such a selection may be termed
"stochastic".
The embryo locations and sizes serve to select
embryos for growth on a deterministic basis. The larger
the embryo or the lower its initial position, the lower the
trajectory it will follow through the HGZ. Whether or
not this lower trajectory will serve to promote or retard
selection is dependent on the concentration of embryos
within the zone. If the concentrations are high, these
embryo characteristics promote selection and if the
concentrations are low, such characteristics retard
selection.
It will be shown that the size-sorting of hailstones
reflects the selection processes within the HGZ. We
shall define the trend of the sorting process in reference
to the time sequence of hailstone sizes with respect to a
stationary observer as the EFR and then the HGZ pass
overhead as shown in Fig. 10. A positive correlation
between the hailstone size and time (or distance) will be
termed positive size-sorting, i.e., the mean hailstone
size increases with time. A decrease in hailstone size
with time will be termed negative size-sorting.
The model results will show that low embryo
concentrations are associated with positive size-sorting
and high embryo concentrations are associated with
negative size-sorting. Positive size-sorting occurs when
the largest hailstones do not result from the largest
embryos (Fig. lOa); negative size-sorting occurs when
the largest embryos become the largest hailstones
(Fig. lOb).
204
L
s discrete groups of particles were followed simultane-
FIG. 10. Trajectories associated with (a) positive size-sorting and
(b) negative size-sorting. L (large) and S (small) refer to the relative
sizes of the embryos or the hailstones. The storm moves to the right.
1) DISCUSSION OF THE MODEL
The model used in this section to assess hailstone
selection mechanisms and the possibility of beneficial
competition is described in detail by Young (1976). The
model is a two-dimensional (x,z), kinematic model with
a uniform flow field (updraft 15 m s- 1 with a horizontal
component of 3 m s- 1 toward the left). The model
extends 1800 m (above the - 20°C level) in the vertical
and 1350 m in the horizontal. The horizontal scale may
be adjusted to apply the results given here to different
updraft inclinations. Each grid square is 45 m x 45 m
except in a few cases where 30m x 30m or
60 m x 60 m grids were used.
Liquid water is carried as a water content and is
assumed to be adiabatic from the cloud base at +soc to
the base of the model at -20°C. Water saturation is
assumed and vapor is condensed accordingly. Liquid
water is depleted by the hailstones, both through
diffusion and accretion processes. The ice particles are
assumed to be spherical, collecting water in a continu-
ous fashion. The density of accreted ice is assumed to
be 0.5 g cm-3 if the temperature of the ice particle is
below ooc and is assumed to be 0.9 g cm- 3 if its
temperature is above 0°C. Liquid water is assumed to
be incorporated into the structure when the heat budget
does not allow all the accreted water to freeze.
In this model, a large number of discrete groups of
particles are followed. Particles within a given group
are treated identically. The location (x,z) of each group
at each time step is known and the growth of particles
within the group is determined by the liquid water
content of the grid square within which the center of the
group is residing at that time as well as the particle size,
the particle fall velocity (calculated according to
McDonald, 1960) and the pressure and temperature at
that level. The group is then translated in space in
PART II: HAIL SUPPRESSION
accordance with the mean flow field, the fall velocity of
its particles and a random component attributed to the
turbulence. The random components were assumed to
be normally distributed with a standard deviation of
1.17 m s- 1 based on aircraft measurements of updraft
velocities taken in hailstorms by Sand (University of
Wyoming, private communication). The turbulence
was assumed to be isotropic and the two components
were assumed to be uncorrelated. The particular
random components chosen to translate a particular
group during a given time step were randomly selected
from a Gaussian distribution with a mean of zero and a
standard deviation of 1.17 m s- 1 • As many as 6000
ously within the model.
The model is steady-state with a constant updraft and
a continuous influx of groups into the model from the
right (the updraft is tilted upward to the left). New
groups are added just as the previous groups exit the
first column of the grid. Groups are removed if their
co-ordinates place them outside the defined limits of the
model. Groups exiting the bottom of the model are
recorded. The model is gradually "filled" with groups
of particles until the efflux of groups is approximately
equal to the influx. Determination of hail spectra begins
at this point and "samples" of 100-200 s are usually
taken.
Several numerical sensitivity studies were performed
on the model to insure against ''numerical competi-
tion". Numerical competition results from the neces-
sity oftreating large numbers of particles identically. In
principle, we would prefer to treat each particle
separately. In practice, it is necessary to combine
particles into groups to reduce the number of required
calculations. In doing this, we tacitly assume that the
particles within the group compete equally for the liquid
water. Since we are attempting to assess competition, it
is necessary to insure that the number of particles
within a given group is low enough so that the
intra-group competition has a negligible effect. Young
(1978) notes that for hailstone growth, groups must be
limited to -30 000 particles (60 m x 60 m x 1 m grid
times 100 particles m- 3 ). It follows that a total embryo
concentration of 1000 m- 3 would be handled by 10
groups of 100 embryos m- 3 each. The order of
processing groups was reversed each time step to
minimize pseudo-competition between the groups.
Young (1976) points out that deterministic models
(those without turbulence) tend to underpredict
maximum hailstone sizes in comparison to the Monte
Carlo model. If we are considering a relatively high
concentration of potential hail embryos such that
relatively few will grow to become hailstones, then such
deterministic models will drastically underpredict the
mean hailstone sizes.
KENNETH C. YOUNG 205

TABLE I. Fraction of embryos selected by initial embryo size (em) TABLE 3. Mean radii (em) for hailstones by initial embryo size (em)
and location (N = 1000 m- 3 ). and location (N = 10 m- 3 ).

Mean Mean
0.024 0.026 0.028 0.030 0.032 radius 0.024 0.026 O.o28 0.030 0.032 radius

I 0 0 0 2% 21% 0.437 I 0.566 0.556 0.545 0.539 0.527 0.546

II 0 0 0 0 4% 0.425 II 0.574 0.561 0.553 0.542 0.532 0.552
III 0 0 0 0 2% 0.409 III 0.579 0.571 0.558 0.549 0.541 0.560
IV 0 0 0 0 0 0.404 IV 0.588 0.574 0.566 0.554 0.548 0.566
Mean Mean
radius 0.403 0.396 0.409 0.437 radius 0.577 0.565 0.556 0.546 0.537 0.556

2) EVALUATION OF SELECTION PROCESSES embryos spend more time in the HGZ, by virtue of their
higher trajectories, they may grow larger, provided the
Whether or not a particular embryo is selected to
liquid water depletion is not too great.
become a hailstone depends on its initial size and
Since the smallest embryos tend to follow the highest
location as well as the total concentration of embryos
trajectories through the HGZ and would be expected to
which serves to determine the vertical gradient ofliquid
fall out furthest from the injection point, we should find
water. In order to evaluate these effects, four cases with
a change in the size-sorting of hailstones as we go from
total embryo concentrations of 1, 10, 100 and 1000 m- 3
low to high embryo concentrations. This is demon-
were chosen. Each case included equal concentrations
strated in Fig. 11 which presents the mean radii for
of five different embryo radii, namely, 0.024, 0.026,
hailstones exiting the base of the model as a function of
0.028, 0.030 and 0.032 em, injected in each of the lowest
distance from the injection point. Positive size-sorting
four levels (level I at 0 to 45 m; II at 45-90 m; III at
is noted for N = 1 and 10 m- 3 and negative size-sorting
90-135 m; IV at 135-180 m). An embryo was
is noted for N = 100 and 1000 m- 3 •
considered to be ''selected'' if it grew to a radius 2::0.50
Clearly, there is some concentration between 10 and
em before exiting the base of the model.
100 m- 3 for which the advantage in growth time for
Some results of these cases are presented in Tables
particles following the higher trajectories is just offset
1-4. Tables 1 and 2 (for concentrations of 1000 and 100
by the disadvantage in encountering less liquid water.
m- 3 ) give the fraction of embryos selected from each of
Under such conditions, the stochastic selection proc-
the 20 categories. Tables 3 and 4 (for concentrations of
esses would have their maximum effect. This embryo
10 and 1m-3 ) give the mean radii for hailstones resulting
concentration will be termed the "criticial" embryo
from each category since, in these two cases, all of the
concentration. Observations of the direction of size-
embryos were "selected" under the above criterion.
sorting with respect to the hailstorm motion should be a
If the total concentration of embryos (N) is large
useful indicator of embryo concentrations within the
(Table 1), the effects of initial embryo size and location
HGZ and, as we shall show in the following section,
dominate the selection process. As the total concentra-
such observations should be a useful indicator of the
tion is decreased (Table 2), these effects become less
potential for beneficial competition.
pronounced until, for concentrations of 1 and 10m-3 , all
embryos are selected. This is a direct consequence of
3) EVALUATION OF COMPETITION EFFECTS WITHIN
the decreased depletion of liquid water as the total
THE HGZ
embryo concentration is decreased. When the deple-
tion is small, the smaller embryos, which follow the The possibility of inducing further (beneficial) com-
higher trajectories through the HGZ, encounter about petition within the HGZ is dependent upon finding
the same amount of liquid water as the larger embryos additional "equivalent" trajectories. We shall show
following the lower trajectories. Since the smaller that additional equivalent trajectories are possible only

TABLE 2. Fraction of embryos selected by initial embryo size (em) TABLE 4. Mean radii (em) for hailstones by initial embryo size (em)
and location (N = 100m-3). and location (N = 1 m- 3).

Mean Mean
0.024 0.026 0,028 0.030 0.032 radius 0.024 0.026 0.028 0.030 0.032 radius
I 4% 2% 30% 47% 72% 0.486 I 0.583 0.569 0.556 0.545 0.531 0.557
II 2% 2% 21% 40% 67% 0.487 II 0.591 0.576 0.564 0.550 0.537 0.564
III 6% 14% 19% 39% 71% 0.490 III 0.598 0.581 0.569 0.559 0.542 0.571
IV 10% 10% 22% 41% 53% 0.491 IV 0.604 0.590 0.576 0.566 0.554 0.578
Mean Mean
radius 0.479 0.476 0.485 0.496 0.507 radius 0.594 0.579 0.567 0.555 0.542 0.567
206 PART II: HAIL SUPPRESSION

.65
I
. Competition between embryos is at a maximum when
all the embryos initially are the same size (if injected at
/I the same point). As shown in the previous section, any
E
0

(/)
.60 /
.- _.I size (or location) disparity tends to select one embryo
over the other and reduces competition between them.
,./ • 10
~
~/ For studying the effects of competition, only embryos
0
<1 / ..---
"'//

of 0.025 em radius (density = 0.5 g cm-3 ) were used .

0::
.55 ...___ ~.,:::_.:/
w
z These were injected at the lowest four levels of the
~,.....:---.... ....
0 model and total embryo concentrations of 1, 10, 100 and
1-
" '-....

""' ___ ......--

(/)
_J
.50 ' 1000 m- 3 were used.
100
I
~
' ""-._
/-- For purposes of presenting the results of this model in
z more familiar terms, the output of the HGZ model was
<1
w .45 integrated over time and distance as if the HGZ were
::;E
moving at 15 m s- 1 over a stationary observer. A simple
proportionality factor serves to convert these results
.40 for any other storm velocity. Thus, the hail spectra are
given in terms of hailstones per square meter (as in Fig.
800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300
12) or grams per square meter (as in Fig. 13).
DISTANCE FROM INJECTION POINT (m)
The results presented in Figs. 12 and 13 show that a
FIG. 11. Mean hailstone radius versus distance from the injection reduction in the concentrations of the largest hailstones
point for total embryo concentrations of 1, 10, 100 and 1000 m-3 •
Embryos were equally partitioned among five initial sizes and were occurs as the total concentration is increased from 1 to
injected at four levels. The figure demonstrates the size-sorting 10 m- 3 and to 100 m- 3 although the total number and
effects discussed in the text.
mass of hailstones is increased. Once the critical
embryo concentration (between 10 and 100m-3 ) is
achieved, no further changes in the hail spectra are
under conditions where positive size-sorting occurs,
evident. This implies that for embryo concentrations
i.e., for embryo concentrations less than the critical
less than the critical value it is possible to increase the
concentration. Embryo concentrations greater than
number of particles following equivalent trajectories.
the critical value result in negative size-sorting and
Once this critical concentration is reached however, all
preclude the existence of unfilled, equivalent trajec-
the equivalent trajectories are filled and no further
tories, i.e., all the equivalent trajectories are occupied.
increases in competition are possible.
The role of melting in the hail fallout zone has not
been determined and whether or not the beneficial
N
E competition induced as embryo concentrations were
'~ increased from 1 to 10 and 100 m - 3 would be expected
z 1000
0

~ 500
0:: N
1-
z
w \\ E
......
(.)
z
0
(.)
200
\\
100_..\ ~1000
(f)
(f)
<l
"' 500
~
100
w
z \\ \--lo
:::iE 200 \\ \
------
0 UJ
1- 50 z
Cil
_J ..... ~ 0
1- 100
I '~ (f)
1oo-·\ \
<1
~ I~
_J
I \ \ 10
20 <l 50
w ' I' I ______ j (
> \ \\~1
1-
<1
_J
:::>
10 \
\
\
UJ
>
1- 20
f", \
I ' ,,
'
::!:
:::> .52 .56 .60
<l
_J , \\~1
:::>
(.)
HAILSTONE RADIUS (em)
::::!:
:::>
(.)
10
\ \\.'
FIG. 12. Cumulative size spectra of hailstones as seen by a .52 .56 .60 .64
stationary observer as the HGZ moves overhead at 15 m s-•. Embryo HAILSTONE RADIUS (em)
input assumes a radius of 0.025 em, density of 0.5 g cm-3 • Total
embryo concentrations of 1, 10, 100 and 1000 m- 3 are presented. FIG. 13. Cumulative mass spectra corresponding to Fig. 12.
KENNETH C. YOUNG
to reduce the total hailstone mass reaching the ground
cannot be answered at the present time.
c. Discussion of the beneficial competition concept
The conventional expression of the beneficial com-
petition concept is given by Sulakvelidze et al. (1974).
The reduction in hailstone radius is expressed as
where N and R refer to the embryo concentration and
hailstone radius respectively and the subscripts n and a
refer to the natural and modified (artificial) processes.
An increase of an order of magnitude in the embryo
concentration is postulated to decrease the hailstone
radius by a factor slightly greater than two. However,
such a treatment assumes that all the embryos will
compete for the liquid water on an equal basis. That
such equality should be possible is not at all clear and
indeed is the crux of the beneficial competition concept.
In order for embryos to compete for the liquid water
on an equal basis, they must follow equivalent
trajectories, i.e., trajectories along which growing
hailstones will encounter an "equivalent" amount of
liquid water. The zone of equivalent trajectories
increases with the intensity of turbulence and decreases
with increasing embryo size disparity and embryo
concentration. Thus, if we wish to employ a numerical
model to assess beneficial competition, the model must
include random mixing processes. In addition, the
model must minimize numerical competition.
The results presented have clearly shown that the
potential for beneficial competition exists when the
embryo concentration is less than its critical value and
positive size-sorting occurs. If the embryo concentra-
tion is greater than its critical value and the size-sorting
is negative, then beneficial competition is not possible.
A physical interpretation of these results follows
from Tables 3 and 4 and Fig. 11. For low embryo
concentrations, the smallest embryos become the
largest hailstones by following a higher (and longer)
trajectory through the HGZ. Since the embryo concen-
trations are low, relatively little depletion of the liquid
water occurs and the longer trajectory results in a larger
hailstone.
As the concentration of embryos is increased,
particularly the concentration of the largest embryos,
the depletion of the liquid water is increased until the
advantage of a higher trajectory is offset by the
reduction in available liquid water. This is evident from
Fig. 11 which shows substantial reductions in hailstone
sizes with increasing embryo concentrations for the
longer (higher) trajectories but essentially no change in
size for particles following the shortest (lowest)
207
.60
E
~
....?~--. 10/
(/) '-- --..~~
'2 .55
"
"
0
<I
n::: \
w \ 1000
z
0
I-
.50 '\
(/)
...J
<I
I
~
z .45 ' 100
-......:~~
<I
w
~
900 1000 1100
DISTANCE FROM INJECTION POINT {m)
FIG. 14. Mean hailstone radius versus distance from injection point
for total embryo concentrations of 1, 10, 100 and 1000 m-3 • Only
embryos of 0.025 em radius were used.
trajectories. It is clear that these reductions in the
concentrations of the largest hailstones occur not from
mutual competition between the lowest embryos but
from an increased depletion of liquid water below the
zone containing the trajectories of the largest hailstones
when embryo concentrations are low.
This same picture applies even when we only
consider embryos of a single size. Fig. 14 presents the
size-sorting diagrams corresponding to Figs. 12 and 13.
Once again we note that the decrease in the largest sizes
as embryo concentrations are increased, results from
increasing depletion of the liquid water reaching the
higher trajectories. In this case, such divergent
trajectories arise from differences in the initial height
and from turbulent effects. It can also be shown that
such divergent trajectories can arise solely from the
random components of the particle's motion.
The application of the beneficial competition concept
in its simplest form, i.e., without altering the largest
embryo sizes but simply increasing their concentra-
tions, will significantly increase the total number and
mass of hailstones while reducing the maximum
hailstone sizes slightly. Thus, even though the fraction
of mass lost to melting in the hail fallout zone may be
greater, the increased mass due to the additional
embryos will probably more than offset this, resulting in
an increase in hail mass at the ground. However, this
conclusion is tentative and awaits careful examination
of the melting processes within the hail fallout zone.
The seeding requirement to initiate or promote
beneficial competition is to narrow the size spectrum so
as to produce more of the largest embryos within the
EFR. This appears to be possible with Agl seeding,
regardless of whether or not the EFR contains
appreciable concentrations of raindrops (provided the
EFR is isolated). However, for conditions where the
208 PART II: HAIL SUPPRESSION

TABLE 5. Mean hailstone radii (em) resulting from embryos (em)
of one size injected at one location.
Embryo
radius 10 100
0.024 0.585 0.581 0.551
0.026 0.571 0.567 0.539
0.028 0.557 0.554 0.527
0.030 0.544 0.541 0.517
natural embryo concentrations are low enough to
expect that beneficial competition is possible, the
increase in embryo concentration is likely to be
accompanied by a decrease in embryo sizes. Table 5
shows that a decrease in embryo size may offset the
effects of an increase in embryo concentration. For
example, if the natural conditions give an embryo
radius of 0.026 em in a concentration of 1 m- 3 and the
seeded conditions yield a radius of 0.024 em in a
concentration of 10 m- 3 , then the mean hailstone radius
would increase with seeding, from 0.571 to 0.581 em.
If the EFR is not isolated in the sense that large
particles, grown elsewhere in the cloud or at higher
levels within the EFR, may be included within the EFR,
adequate control of the embryo size spectrum may not
be possible. In this case, the embryo size spectrum
would be controlled by the recycling and mixing
processes which may produce a broad size spectrum at
one location by mixing particles which have vastly
different growth histories.
In summary, reductions in the concentrations of the
largest hailstones is possible only if positive size-sorting
is occurring. Positive size-sorting implies that the
largest hailstones do not result from the lowest
trajectories, i.e., the largest embryos do not become the
liquid water reaching the region of favored trajectories
that would have existed in the absence of the
modification.
There are two aspects of this concept which need to
1000 be examined, namely, the growth of the added or
0.444 "seed" particles and their ability to screen the liquid
0.434 water. We commonly think of the lowest trajectory as
0.427
0.421 the most favored trajectory since the growing particle
will encounter undepleted liquid water and we tacitly
assume that this implies that this particle will grow to
the largest size. However, as was demonstrated in the
previous section, such a particle will clearly spend less
time in the HGZ than a smaller particle and, ifthe liquid
water depletion is not significant, it will not grow as
large as a particle which follows a higher trajectory and
spends more time in the HGZ. Only when there is
significant depletion of the liquid water in the region of
the lowest trajectories will the lowest trajectories
produce the largest hailstones.
The ability of growing particles to significantly
/ ........... \
/
' 1
17' '
\

largest hailstones. In this case, an increase in concen- ~ '----

-----
trations of the largest embryos will reduce the liquid
'16'
water reaching the trajectories followed by the largest
hailstones, serving to reduce their growth rates. Once
'16' - - - - - ,
-
the liquid water depletion is great enough so that the
lowest trajectories result in the largest hailstones,
further reductions in maximum hailstone sizes are not
possible under the concept of benefical competition.

5. The trajectory lowering concept

The trajectory lowering concept for hail suppression
states that by increasing the sizes of the largest embryos
entering the HGZ or by allowing the large embryos to
enter the HGZ at a lower level, they will follow a lower
trajectory through the HGZ. Such embryos will have
less time to grow and will be less able to freeze their
accreted water and therefore will be smaller when they
exit the HGZ and will be more likely to melt in the hail
fallout zone. At the same time, they serve to deplete the
HAILSTONE RADIUS (em)
FIG. 15. Size spectra of hailstones by the grid square at which they
exited the base of the model. Each grid is 60 m with grid 1
representing the injection point. Each division represents 5000
particles m-• s- 1 cm- 1 • The figure compares the natural case
(N =100m- 3 , r = 0.025 em) with its seeded counterpart, adding
100m-3 frozen drops. The seeded case is given by solid lines; the
natural case is shown by dashed lines.
KENNETH C. YOUNG 209

deplete the liquid water is dependent on their total
concentration. The trajectory lowering concept re-
quires that the additional, larger embryos be supplied in
sufficient concentrations to significantly deplete the
liquid water. If the liquid water depletion by the
additional "seed" embryos is not adequate, then there
will be little effect on the hail spectrum.
a. Discussion of the model
The model used for examining the trajectory lowering
concept is that described in section 4b(l) for studies of
beneficial competition. Two "natural" cases were
considered. The initial embryo radius was 0.025 em
(density = 0.5 g cm-3 ) injected in each of the four
lowest levels. The two cases considered total embryo
concentrations of 10 and 100 m- 3 respectively.
In order to implement the trajectory lowering
concept, it is necessary to initiate the growth of large
particles lower in the EFR. Rokicki and Young (1978)
show that hygroscopic seeding is more efficient in this
regard than Agl. The effects of seeding were simulated
by the injection of 0.05 em radius embryos with a
density of0.9 g cm-3 (frozen drops) into the lowest two
levels of the model. A concentration of 100 m- 3 was
chosen since cases with seed embryo concentrations of
1 and 10 m- 3 did not significantly deplete the liquid
water and changes in the resulting hail spectra
were slight.
b. Growth of the seed embryos
One requirement of the trajectory lowering concept is
that the additional embryos do not grow as large as the
natural embryos would have. This is clearly demon-
strated in Fig. 15 which shows that the seed embryos
fall out closer to the point of injection and are
significantly smaller than the hailstones which result
from the natural embryos (natural embryo concentra-
tion here is 100 m- 3 ). The seed embryos fall out in grid
squares 12 to 16 (720 to 960 m from the injection point)
whereas none of the natural embryos fall out closer than
grid 16 (960 m).
None of the seed embryos exceed 0.45 em radius as
they exit the HGZ whereas nearly all of the "natural"
hailstones do so. Note that the negative size-sorting
effect is less pronounced among the seed embryos than
among the natural embryos. This suggests that the
liquid water gradient is steeper in the region of natural
trajectories than in the region of seed trajectories.
c. Depletion of liquid water by the seed embryos
As noted above, seed embryo concentrations of 1 and
10 per m3 did not appreciably affect the natural embryo
growth. However, it is clear from Fig. 15 that the 100
m- 3 concentration of seed embryos significantly re-
duces the concentrations of the largest hailstones,
particularly those following the most lowest natural
trajectories. This difference is again evident in Fig. 16

"'E ~
...... E
:11: ......
:u:
z N0 = 100/m3
~ z
0
1-
<( 400 ;::: 80
a: <(
1- a:
z 1-
z
w w
()
z 300 ()
z 60
0
0
u u
w w
z z
0 0
1- 200 40
(f) 1-
(f)
__J
__J
<(
<(
:r: :r:
100
w w 20
:::
1-
>
1-
<( <(
__J __J
:::> :::>
:::!! :::!!
:::> .46 .50 .54 :::> .52 .56 .60
u u
HAILSTONE RADIUS (em) HAILSTONE RADIUS (em)

(a) (b)
FIG. 16. Cumulative size spectra of hailstones as seen by a stationary observer with a
storm motion of 15 m s- 1 • Natural cases with embryo concentrations of 100 m- 3 (a) and
10m-3 (b) and radii of0.025 em are compared with their seeded counterparts. Seeding
assumes the addition of 100 m-3 of frozen drops (r = 0.05 em).
210 PART II: HAIL SUPPRESSION

which compares the cumulative distributions of order to properly assess the degree to which the radar
hailstones for the two natural cases with their seeded overhang might be lowered. The observation of such a
counterparts. The seeding in this case shifts the entire difference in the height of the radar overhang between
spectrum to smaller sizes, by 0.02 em for the 100 seeded and unseeded storms (or in seeded and
embryos m- 3 case. Substantial reductions in the unseeded sequences within the same storm) would be a
concentrations of the largest hailstones are evident strong piece of physical evidence in support of
without concomitant increases in the total hailstone successful hail suppression.
numbers. It is necessary to deplete the liquid water by at least
These reductions in the concentration and mass of 0.5 g m- 3 over a path of 500 m or more along the most
the largest hailstones must have resulted from a favored natural trajectory in order to significantly
significant depletion of the liquid water reaching the reduce hailstone numbers and mass. Fig. 19 shows a
region of favored trajectories that would have existed depletionofmorethan 1 g m- 3 overa500 mpathforthe
under natural conditions. Figs. 17 and 18 compare the cases shown in Figs. 17 and 18 which resulted in a
profiles ofLWC for the natural case (N = 100 m- 3 ) and ten-fold reduction in total hail mass for hailstones larger
its seeded case respectively. In the natural case, the than 0.50 em radius. We may conclude that a
lowest trajectories encounter L WC in excess of concentration of seed embryos on the order of 100m-3
3.5 g m-3 whereas the corresponding trajectories in the or more is desirable for hail suppression under the
seeded case encounter less than 3.0 g m- 3 • The trajectory lowering concept.
trajectories of the natural embryos in the seeded case
are displaced slightly to the left, away from the injection d. Summary of the trajectory lowering concept
point, in comparison to the natural case. The area of 50
dBZ reflectivity is decreased due to the decrease in The trajectory lowering concept appears to be viable
concentration of the largest hailstones. Most of the in terms of significantly reducing the concentrations of
differences in the two cases occur in the descending large hailstones and in reducing the total hail mass. The
portion of the trajectories. concept depends on an adequate concentration of seed
The effects of seeding under this concept include a embryos in order to sufficiently deplete the liquid water
significant lowering of the radar overhang. In this and retard the growth of the natural embryos. This
model, the lowering is about 700 m although more concentration appears to be on the order of 100 seed
realistic embryo size spectra would have to be used in embryos per cubic meter. However, if the seeding does

1650

1500

1350

1200 ~
u
0
1050 N
I
w
>
0
(IJ
<(

I-
I
(.!)
w
I

150

FIG. 17. Cross-section ofLWC (g m-•, dashed lines) and radar reflectivity factor (dBZ, solid lines) for
the natural case with 100 embryos m-•.
KENNETH C. YOUNG 211

--- ... .... \

' ' ...
.......
... ........ __ 4.0---- 1650

'
' \
\
I

1200 5
(.)

1050 2
I
w
>
0
CD
<(

I-
I
(.!)
w
I

150

FIG. 18. Cross section of L WC and reflectivity factor as in Fig. 17 except I 00 m -a offrozen drop embryos
have been injected, simulating seeding.

not provide seed embryos in this concentration, no the EFR may be expected to have a positive effect.
deleterious effects would be expected. Seeding with Agl may be effective in this regard (e.g.,
Any seeding method which will initiate the growth of Fig. 7) although Rokicki and Young (1978) show that
precipitation elements in such concentrations lower in hygroscopic seeding would be significantly more

(.)
0
N

w
~
CD
<(

I-
I
Q
w
I

FIG. 19. Change in LWC due to seeding as in Fig. 18.

212
effective in initiating a radar "first echo" lower in the
updraft, even for cloud base temperatures as cold as
-5°C. If the large drops produced as a result of
hygroscopic seeding could be frozen at warmer
temperatures than they would otherwise, mass loss by
drop breakup could be reduced and the resulting frozen
drops would be more effective in screening the liquid
water reaching the HGZ.
Such a combination of hygroscopic material (NaCl)
and ice nucleant (Agi) has been used for a number of
years by the Transcaucasian Hydrometeorological
Research Institute (THRI). Lominadze et a/. (1974)
report that this method is essentially as outlined here
although they employ the ice nucleant to prevent any
growth of the artificially-induced large drops to
hailstone sizes rather than to make the large drops
freeze earlier and become more efficient at depleting the
liquid water.
6. Summary of the concepts
Each of these hail suppression concepts has distinct
features, crucial to the concept, which may be tested in
isolation without consideration of the entire hailstorm.
The emphasis here has been on examining these crucial
aspects by means of fairly simple numerical models
designed specifically for this purpose.
a. The glaciation concept
The glaciation concept requires that a significant
depletion of the liquid water occur below the HGZ in
order to retard the growth of hailstones within the zone.
The region of interest is the strong updraft below the
HGZ which supplies the supercooled water to the HGZ
::.nd makes possible the growth of hailstones.
The model indicates that Agl seeding rates in excess
of 1000 g/min would be required for typical updraft
velocities and dimensions. Such seeding rates would
serve to reduce hailstone sizes with complete suppres-
sion of hail growth requiring even higher seeding rates.
Even if such seeding rates were feasible, it is likely that
the precipitation efficiency of the hailstorm would be
significantly reduced due to an increased mass loss to
the thunderstorm anvil. We may conclude that applica-
tion of the glaciation concept in the HGZ is not
desirable for economic reasons.
Application of the glaciation concept in the EFR
requires significantly less seeding material than in the
HGZ but still retains the likelihood of reducing total
precipitation. In addition, this application carries the
risk of increasing hailstone sizes if the embryo sizes are
only slightly reduced so that they may pass into the
HGZ. Such smaller embryos would follow higher
trajectories while encountering roughly the same
PART II: HAIL SUPPRESSION
amount of liquid water and thereby would grow to
larger sizes. Both the risk of increasing hail and the
likely disbenefits of decreasing precipitation argue
against the desirability of glaciation within the EFR.
b. The beneficial competition concept
The beneficial competition concept has two basic
requirements. First, the concentrations of the largest
embryos in the EFR must be increased, i.e., the
spectrum must be narrowed. Second, these embryos
must be able to compete with each other within the
HGZ.
Reduction in the concentrations of the largest
hailstones under this concept may only occur under
conditions where positive size-sorting occurs. If the
size-sorting is such that the sizes of hailstones increase
with increasing distance from the injection point
(positive-size sorting), addition of more embryos of the
largest sizes serves to reduce the liquid water reaching
the trajectories of the largest hailstones, thereby
reducing their growth rate. If the embryo concentration
is greater than the critical value, and negative
size-sorting occurs, further reductions in maximum
hailstone sizes are not possible. This critical concentra-
tion is between 10 and 100 embryos m- 3 •
It does not appear feasible to attempt to induce
beneficial competition under conditions where the
graupel process is the dominant precipitation
mechanism. Fig. 7 indicates that embryo concentra-
tions on the order of lOO's m- 3 are present naturally.
This concentration is somewhat less than the concen-
trations of graupel reported by Dye eta/. (1974) under
conditions similar to those postulated for the EFR.
Such embryo concentrations preclude decreasing
maximum hailstone concentrations or sizes by simply
increasing the concentration of the largest embryos.
The expected natural embryo concentration when
the coalescence process is the dominant precipitation
mechanism is on the order of 1 m- 3 (Fig. 9). This
suggests that beneficial competition may be induced.
However, seeding to increase embryo concentrations
also reduces their sizes in this case. Such smaller
embryos would follow higher trajectories and may grow
larger than in the natural case. One must consider the
possibility of increasing the maximum hailstone sizes in
this case.
c. The trajectory lowering concept
The trajectory lowering concept requires that large
particles be formed lower in the updraft within the EFR
and that these particles be present in concentrations
sufficient to significantly deplete the L WC within the
HGZ. These larger particles will follow lower trajec-
KENNETH C. YOUNG
tories through the HGZ, will spend less time there and
consequently will not grow as large as particles
following higher trajectories would have in their
absence.
According to the model, these "seed" embryos must
be present in concentrations of 100 m- 3 or more in order
to deplete the liquid water enough to appreciably retard
the growth of the natural embryos. None ofthese seed
embryos would grow to sizes comparable to the
naturally occurring hailstones. It is suggested that the
most efficient means of producing such large particles
lower in the EFR updraft is by hygroscopic seeding
beneath the EFR.
7. Discussion
The value of numerical results such as these in
assessing hail suppression concepts is closely related to
the degree to which the model approximates the
important aspects of reality. The HGZ model used here
to assess the beneficial competition and trajectory
lowering concepts is based on direct observations of
updraft intensity and inclination, the levels of turbu-
lence within the HGZ and the types of particles present
within the HGZ. It is also consistent with the
conceptual models of hailstorms advanced by Brown-
ing (1976) and Browning et al. (1976). The model
produces realistic radar profiles and exponentially-
distributed hail spectra. The time from embryo
injection into the HGZ until the hailstone exits the HGZ
(5 to 8 min) is consistent with the time available for
growth within a single cell (of a multi-cellular
hailstorm).
The HGZ model as employed here is relatively
simplistic, concentrating on certain aspects of hailstone
growth which are believed to be the most pertinent for
assessing hail suppression. The inclusion of random
components (due to turbulence) for determining the
trajectory of a particle is considered to be of utmost
importance in assessing beneficial competition. Com-
pletely deterministic models tacitly assume competi-
tion and therefore cannot assess whether or not such
competition may actually occur. The Monte Carlo
aspect of this model renders it unique among existing
models of hail growth.
The plausibility of such numerical results relies to a
large extent on the physical interpretation that accom-
panies them. Here, the model has been used as a tool to
clarify the physical processes and to support the chains
of reasoning presented. The application of these results
should be undertaken in the same vein, i.e., the use of
the precise numbers presented here should be es-
chewed and only the concepts should be applied to the
real world.
The most attractive hail suppression concept is that
213
oflowering trajectories so as to reduce the growth time
available to hailstones following the lowest trajectories
and at the same time, to reduce the liquid water
reaching the upper portions of the HGZ. The method of
implementation requires that larger particles be intro-
duced lower in the EFR so that they may enter the HGZ
at lower levels. The most efficient means of producing
such large particles is by hygroscopic seeding. Such a
hail suppression method would be expected to sig-
nificantly lower the radar overhang. The observation of
such a difference between seeded and unseeded storms
would provide strong physical evidence in support of
successful suppression.
The trajectory lowering concept may also be
implemented by Agi seeding provided the seeding is
capable of significantly lowering the height at which
large particles (precipitation) are formed in the EFR.
Rokicki and Young (1978) show that a lowering of the
first echo height on the order of 400 m may occur for
cloud bases of +5°C and updrafts of 2m s- 1 by Agi
seeding. However, they show that hygroscopic seeding
would lower the first echo height by 1000 m for the same
conditions. The effects of Agi seeding in this regard are
maximized for cloud bases near +5°C; the effects of
hygroscopic seeding are maximized for cloud bases
near + 10°C. However, hygroscopic seeding is more
efficient at lowering the first echo height for all cloud
base temperatures studied ( -5 to + 15°C).
In order to better assess the trajectory lowering
concept (and also the beneficial competition concept)
the output of the EFR model needs to be coupled with
the HGZ model. In addition, a model ofthe hail fallout
zone/rain fallout zone is needed to assess the role of
melting in modifying the output of the HGZ before it
reaches the ground.
Acknowledgments. Innumerable discussions con-
cerning hail suppression concepts and conceptual
models of hailstorms as well as how these ideas apply in
the real world have served not only to stimulate the
ideas presented here but also to clarify their presenta-
tion. The following persons may take partial credit (or
blame) for this paper: Drs. C. A. Knight, K. A.
Browning, G. B. Foote and J. E. Dye ofNHRE and Dr.
L. J. Battan of the University of Arizona. The concept
of trajectory lowering (as opposed to hygroscopic
seeding ) first crystallized at the NHRE Workshop on
Hail, held at Estes Park during September 1975 where
the exchange of ideas among the members of working
group A was most stimulating. The suffering of my
students, on whom these ideas were laid before being
properly understood by me, should not go unnoticed.
This research was supported under Grant SUB NCAR
S5004.
214
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on the prices of Great Plains croplands. J. Appl. Meteor., 14,
686-693.
Browning, K. A., 1977: The structure and mechanisms of hail-
storms. Meteor. Monogr., No. 38, 1-43.
Browning, K. A., J. C. Fankhauser, J.P. Chalong, P. J. Eccles, R. G.
Strauch, F. H. Merrem, D. J. Musil, E. L. May and W. R. Sand,
1976: Synthesis and implications for hail growth and hail
suppression. Structure of an evolving hailstorm. NHRE
Tech. Rep. 76/1, Il-22.
Chisholm, A. J., 1973: Alberta hailstorms. Part I. Radar case studies
and airflow models. Meteor. Monogr., No. 36, 1-36.
Cooper, W. A., 1974: A possible mechanism for contact nucleation.
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Dye, J. E., C. A. Knight, V. Toutenhoofd and T. W. Cannon, 1974:
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Colorado cumulus. III. Coordinated microphysical and radar
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the storm. Meteor. Monogr., No. 36, 37-98.
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Gokhale, N. R., 1975: Hailstorms and Hailstone Growth. State
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Lominadze, V. P., 1.1. Bartishvili and S. L. Gudushavri, 1974: On the
results of protection of crops from hail by the THRI method.
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kent, WMO No. 399, 225-230.
McDonald, J. E., 1960: An aid to computation of terminal velocity of
spheres. J. Meteor., 17, 463-465.
PART II: HAIL SUPPRESSION
Ono, A., 1970: Growth mode of ice crystals in natural clouds. J.
Atmos. Sci., 27, 649-658.
Pitter, R. L., and H. R. Pruppacher, 1974: A numerical investigation
of collision efficiencies of simple ice plates colliding with
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Rokicki, M. L., and K. C. Young, 1978: The formation of
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Rosinski, J., G. Langer, C. T. Nagamoto and T. C. Kerrigan, 1971:
Natural ice-forming nuclei in severe convection storms. J.
Atmos. Sci., 28, 391-401.
Sulakvelidze, G. K., B. I. Kiziriya and V. V. Tsykunov, 1974:
Progress of hail suppression work in the USSR. Weather and
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Vali, G., 1973: Remarks on the mechanism of atmospheric ice
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- - , 1974b: The role of contact nucleation in ice phase initiation in
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 Methods and Results of Hail Suppression in Europe and in the USSR
BRUNO FEDERER

Atmospheric Physics, ETH, 8093 Zurich, Switzerland

ABSTRACT

Current hail suppression projects in France, Italy, .Yugoslavia, Switzerland and the Soviet Union are
summarized with regard to seeding techniques, operational methods and evaluation of results.

1. Introduction the suppression effort in this valley is substantial.

Unfortunately, commercial firms (in the summer of
Each year a substantial effort in hail suppression is
1975 two different companies were operating) conduct
undertaken in the following European countries: Spain,
hail suppression by unproven techniques. The amount
France, Italy, Switzerland, Austria and Yugoslavia.
spent on such operations by farmers' cooperatives was
Most of these programs are conducted by commercial
over one million dollars in 1975. The company which
operators and financed on a private basis. The basic
covers the largest area is SOREM (Societa Ricerche
seeding concept used in all hail suppression experi-
Esperienze Meteorologiche) which (in 1975) operated
ments described below is that of beneficial competition.
ground and aircraft generators in the following
The seeding methods used differ widely, from explosive
provinces in the Po Valley: Asti, Pavia, Brescia,
rockets and ground generators to freely falling and wing
Mantova, Emilia Romagna, Vicenza, Trento, Treviso,
mounted silver iodide flares. Yugoslavia and Switzer-
Udine and Gorizia. In 1977 the only silver iodide
land are the only countries where the government
seeding program in the Po Valley is in Vicenza
supports a hail suppression program, and in both cases
covering an area of 250 000 ha. The total cost i~
the methods resemble those used in the Soviet Union.
210 million lire, or $1 ha- 1 .
The scientific work sponsored by the Department of
The ground generators are put in operation according
Agriculture of France and Italy, being under pressure
to forecasts by the meteorological service on each
from the commercial firms, is mainly related to the
occasion when thunderstorm activity is expected over
possibility of controlling the efficiency of suppression
the "protected" region. Seeding from aircraft begins
operations. Because the control of non-randomized
when a 3 em radar detects a thunderstorm approaching
experiments conducted on the basis of visual impres-
the region. Aircraft seeding is accomplished with wing-
sions of farmers and pilots is a very difficult, if not
mounted flares (Olin) and is done below cloud base, on
impossible task, these two countries have decided to
the front side of the thunderstorm.
join the Swiss field experiment for hail suppression,
The generators burn a solution of Agi in isopropyl-
Grossversuch IV (1976-1980) in order to test their
amine (IPA) in a propane flame and have four different
control methods within a randomized experiment with
Agi-outputs: 1000, 800, 330 and 25 g h- 1 • The output
well-known boundary conditions.
of active ice nuclei per gram of Agi is compared to
This paper gives a description of the hail suppression
other generators in Fig. 1. It is seen that the new
work in Italy, France and Yugoslavia, together with an
development S9 of SO REM combines a high yield with
outline of the Swiss randomized experiment using the
a relatively high output of 25 g of Agi per hour. The
Soviet technique. The experiments of the Soviets are
other generators with an excessive output of up to
described in condensed form because only minor
1000 g h- 1 yield relatively low concentrations of active
changes in their hail suppression approach have been
nuclei per gram of Agi. In the field different types of
made since the review by Battan (1969).
generators are used and in the laboratory of Montorio
periodic checks of the generators' output are made.
2. Italy
To test the dispersion of the nuclei in the air and
The Po Valley is surrounded by mountains on three their eventual deactivation by sunlight and other
sides leading to a very sluggish wind regime in the mechanisms, ice nucleus measurements on the ground
usually unstable summer atmosphere. This valley has and with an airplane are made by a French group
the world's most severe economic hail problem. The (Admirat et al., 1974). They use a mixing type cloud
annual losses amount to 150 billion lire ( =250 million chamber and find that during the operation of the
dollars in 1975) on a cultivated area of about 50 000 km2 generators the ice nucleus concentration at -21 oc
(see Morgan, 1973). It is therefore understandable that during fine weather conditions and at an altitude of
215
216
NUCLEI (g- 1 of Agl)
1o161--,------,-------,
5 -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - skylire (FUQUAY)
(STEELE)
5 vortu (J.DESSENS)
G.M.I. 333 (So .REJiol.l
10 1~ !--f-H'----"?":P."""'---"?"""7:S.a (So.R.E.M.)
G.M.I. 800 (So.R.E.M.)
G.M.I. 1000(So.R.E.M.l
5
FIG. 1. Output of SO REM generators compared to other well-known
generators (after Admirat et a/., 1974).
1000 m MSL seems to be ten times higher in the Po
Valley than over a similar generator network near
Clermont-Ferrand (France). The reason for this con-
sistent difference is not clear.
The evaluation of the SOREM operation is very
difficult. The company itself claims to collect hail
reports from the communities in their "protected
area." Since the experiments are non-randomized,
only a comparison of hail occurrences and crop
damage with historical records would be possible. But
it is very difficult to obtain historical records from hail
insurance companies in Italy, since these companies
usually do not publish their data.
A more promising control was started three years
ago by Rosini and Vento (1972) financed by the Italian
Department of Agriculture. The aim of this group is
to obtain a documentation of all hail in the Po Valley
using their hailpad data and the damage data of the
official provincial inspectors. With the hailpad net-
works in and around the "protected areas" these
workers measure kinetic energy of the hailfall. Ul-
timately this should lead to a measure of change of this
parameter in seeded areas and certain control areas
upwind of the target. Up to now only preliminary
results have been published. But even without proof
of the efficiency of the methods, the commercial firms
are able to continue their operations, thanks to the
enthusiasm of the farmers' cooperatives.
Up to 1974 hail research at the Verona Observatory
was carried out by Franco Prodi affiliated with the
Instituto di Fisica dell' Atmosfera in Bologna. This
research focused on radar and photogrammetric in-
vestigations of severe storms and microphysical
analyses of hailstones collected on the ground.
PART II: HAIL SUPPRESSION
3. France
In this country the operational people are active in
three groups: I' Association Nationale de Lutte contre
les Fleaux Atmospheriques (ANLCFA) in southern
France, the Association climatologique de Moyenne-
Garonne (ACMG) in southwestern France and the
Air-Alpes in the Beaujolais and Burgundy regions.
The ANLCFA still uses Dessens' vortex ground
generators in which a solution of Agi-Nal or Agi-
NH41 in acetone is burned directly. There are 420
generators burning a solution with 1% Agl on a surface
of about 70 000 km 2 • By 1974 about four tons of Agl
per year were dispersed but for the last two seasons a
quantitative forecast of maximum hail diameter was
used and the burners were operated only when the
forecast predicted hail diameters greater than 15 mm.
On these occasions the burners were started 4 h before
the predicted onset of thunderstorm activity, so that
in 1974 only 736 kg Agl were used by the total
network. In 1977 the total cost was reported to be as
low as $0.1 ha- 1 . The forecast of hail diameter
is made on an operational basis with a method de-
veloped by Molenat (1975). From a radiosonde ascent
four parameters are used:
1) the maximum wind (it must blow from a direction
between south and northwest at a speed greater
than 20 kt).
2) The temperature of the tropopause.
3) The height at which the dewpoint reaches
Td = 0°C.
4) The classical index of GALWAY, which takes
into account maximum surface temperature,
mean humidity in the first 1000 m and T500 mb·
The maximum hail diameter D 8 is determined graph-
ically (Fig. 2). As an example take the index to be zero,
the tropopause temperature -60°C and the height of
T d = ooc to be 2000 m MSL. The point corresponding
to these values lies in the zone A, which means that
D 8 > 20 mm. Zone D of Fig. 2 indicates hailstones
smaller than 10 mm. The burners are set in operation
only if the forecast indicates D 8 > 15 mm (zones A
and B).
The results of this operation are evaluated by
comparing crop damage in the target area with that of
different control areas before and during the heavy
seeding period which started in 1963. From insurance
data Jean Dessens calculates R = insurance payment/
insured value for the protected and the control areas.
This is a measure of hail damage. The development
with time of the parameter Q = Rtest areaiRcontroi should
indicate the effectiveness of the seeding. This is
shown in Fig. 3. If seeding had no effect, the R for the
target area (Bassin Aquitain) should be higher and lie
on the extrapolated full lines. The reason that after
BRUNO FEDERER 217

the ACMG group up to 1972 was R. Picca, who pub-

TEMPERATURE
4000m 3000 2000 1000 0 10 8 6 4 2
ALTITUDE AT Td=O"C
FIG. 2. Determination of the maximum hail diameter after Mole nat
(1975). See the example in the text.
1962 these R's are about 20% lower is attributed to
the effect of seeding. The value of Q , which is the
slope of the so-called "double-mass" curves (Dessens
et al., 1970), decreases from 1.64 during the period
1944-62 (without significant seeding) to 1.32 for the
years 1963-69.
Boutin (1972) has criticized these statistical con-
clusions. He compared the parameters R of the
pre-experimental period to those during the experi-
mental period and found that the latter still lie within
the limits of confidence of the former at a level of
significance p = 0.05. About 40 years would be re-
lished very favorable results (Picca, 1971), indicating
damage reductions of up to 90%. The parameters
used were the number of hail days N u divided by
the number of thunderstorm days N 0 , the number C
of communities which reported hail on a particular
day and S, the area of tobacco crops destroyed with
respect to the area planted. All these parameters
showed a pronounced reduction during the operational
years 1964-70 compared to a period of reference from
1951-63.
Boutin (1972) has also reexamined the data of the
ACMG and he found that by plotting the mean area
destroyed by hail per hail day, SINu• as a function of
time, an increase of 60% over the pre-experimental
mean is obtained. This led him to look at the original
0 -2 -4 -6 -8
data more carefully and he concluded that the ACMG
INDEX OF GALWAY
had used incorrect numbers which substantially im-
proved their conclusions (Boutin, 1970).
The operation of the ACMG is, however, well
organized. The cells threatening the "protected area"
are detected at a distance of 100 km with a 3 em mini-
radar. The seeding is done with a silicagel impregnated
with 5% Agl (Levilite). The activity of this seeding
material is shown in Fig. 4, the output of active nuclei
per gram of Agl being 8 x 1011 at -20°C (Federer,
1972; Admirat, 1972). Because during its dispersion as
a powder large lumps are sometimes formed the
80 1972
_../,/'
1971

quired to prove a 20% reduction. Also Boutin doubts ,..,..../

the validity of comparing the R' s of the target area and 1968
these particular control areas since the latter have f-----~ _)
60 ....
cultivated surfaces of entirely different sizes. As a third .•.......--...··
objection Boutin finds that the positive result of
Dessens is due to exceptionally high values of R , z
especially for one single summer (1963). ~
Beginning in 1974 the ANLCFA installed 235 vortex 40 ~
generators in the Spanish provinces of Ebro and
Levante covering 25 000 km2 • The operation will
eventually be extended to other Spanish provinces.
Here too, a large number of years will be required to - B. Aqu~ain / Rtste France

detect a seeding effect by the approach mentioned ••• -•• B. Aquitaln ;e. Rhodanien
20
above. The Spaniards themselves have used Agl-
ground generators for a number of years in several
provinces. In Valencia, however, Luis Huarte uses
explosive rockets containing hygroscopic nuclei to
"protect" the rice crops. 10
RESTE FRANCE
20 30
The ACMG operates in an area of 9000 km 2 partly 20 40 60
BASSIN RHODANIEN
within the area "protected" by ground generators of
the ANLCF A, and claims that the insurance records FIG. 3. Cumulative distribution of the annual percentage losses
in the "protected area" (ordinate) versus those of the control areas.
used by Dessens are much too variable and unreliable The insert shows the annual output of Agl in metric tons per year
to detect any effect of seeding. The scientific advisor of over the "protected area."
218 PART II: HAIL SUPPRESSION

NUCLEI [g-1 of Agl] since Meprazur has to be mechanically dispersed.

1()13
An assessment of the results has not yet been pub-
/.-- lished, but the ACMG is interested in the scientific
,/ evaluation of their results, although they would have
,/ difficulty in incorporating randomization.
I The third operation, shaped exactly according to the

I ACMG and partly run by the same people (A. Delourme

J/
and Air Alpes), is the one protecting the vineyards of
the Beaujolais region, north of Lyon. They cover an
area of about 8000 km 2 and are partly financed by
//' local groups. In addition, they are trying to obtain

I
/ I
•
subsidies from the government but first need to show
that they are successful. The seeding in this operation
I / is also done with Levilite and Meprazur (see Fig. 4).
I / Scientific work on hail is carried out by J. Dessens
I ,I and P. Admirat and some radar work by S. Godard
whose main activity is now in connection with the
I I
I . boundary layer research of Soulage. Admirat and
I I collaborators operate a square network near Mont-

I I
I / -·- Meprazur
~~~I
- - - Levllite
I I
I I
I
I the number concentration and the diameters of the
I
-5 -10 - 20
FIG. 4. The ice-forming activity of Meprazur and Levilite tested in
the Zurich cloud chamber (Federer, 1968).
number of active nuclei per gram of material is only
about 1010 at -10°C. This means that very large
quantities have to be dispersed (usually > 100 kg per
flight). The delivery of this Levilite is done with both
aircraft and ground crews. The ground teams fire
rockets vertically from their vehicles to an altitude of
2500 m AGL. Aircraft and vehicles are centrally
directed from the radar station, but the ultimate target-
ing is done visually by both pilots and car drivers.
All the participants in these operations are very
enthusiastic and so are the farmers who pay for it. Year
after year A. Delourme, the technical director, pub-
lished the proof of his success until in 1973 he left the
area. Since then the ACMG has been conducting the
same operation but on a more modest scale. Besides
wing-mounted pyrotechnic flares a new seeding ma-
terial (Meprazur) has been used in the last two seasons.
It is an organic polymer treated with 2.9% Agl.
The polymer is biodegradable and its activity has been
tested in the CSU and Zurich cloud chambers. The
results from the Zurich tests are also shown in Fig. 4.
At high temperatures the activity is fairly good and
comparable to most pyrotechnic flares. The same
delivery problems as with the Levilite are encountered
pellier with 300 hailpads and 100 rain gages 2.8 km
apart. The measured parameters are number and
diameter of hailstones. They then calculate the mass
and kinetic energy of a hailfall. It was observed that in
some hailstorms there exists a hailcore, where both
stones increase towards the center (Admirat, 1973).
- 25 TEMPERATURE
(OC)
In future experiments on seeded storms, a drastic
reduction in kinetic energy should be detected if the
hailcores exist in all natural hailstorms. In Jean
Dessens' research center a number of projects are in
progress, mainly pertaining to ice nucleus investiga-
tions and silver analysis in rainwater.
4. Yugoslavia
Hail suppression operations in this country are
carried out by the regional Hydrometeorological
Institutes (Radinovic, 1972). The most important
activity is that of Serbia with 11 so-called hail
suppression polygons, whereas Slovenia has only one
polygon. A total of 1.2 x 106 ha are covered by the
hail suppression operation and the reported cost is
$0.75 ha- 1 • The programs lean very heavily on the
Soviet technique although the radars that are used
operate at 10 em wavelength and have a beamwidth of
5°, and the rockets are made in Yugoslavia. It is
planned to substitute more modern equipment for the
old Mk 7 radars. All storms drifting over the protected
area are observed out to a distance of 30 km by the
radars located at the center of each polygon. When
the storms meet a given criterion [based on radar
reflectivity (logZ > 3), the temperatures at the top
of the accumulation zone (T < -14°C), that of radar
cloud top (T < -28°C), and the ratio of depth of cold
cloud to warm cloud h+/h_ < Y2] the storms are seeded
BRUNO FEDERER 219

with ground based rockets which are supposed to cover 1300gr

an area of 30 km 2 each. A radio communication system
links all firing stations with the radar control stations
which transmit the azimuth, elevation and number of
rockets to the favorably located firing stations within
the area. The effectiveness of the program is judged
from the crop damage value during hail suppression as
compared to historical records, and from the area
of crop damage observed in the protected area as
compared to that in unprotected control areas. There
is a problem in how these estimates are made, how-
ever. It is known that insurance coverage has dropped
from 40% to a few percent after the introduction of
the Soviet method. Also the area damaged by hail in
the "protected area" is measured by the same people
who operate the launchers, whereas local farmers
estimate the damage in the control regions. Neverthe-
less, it is claimed that damage in the protected areas
has been reduced by over 70%!
A word must be said about the rockets used in
Yugoslavia. Up to 1974 they produced all-plastic
models of which the latest one, Sako-6-II, has a weight
of 5 kg, is 80 em long and 8 em in diameter. It can
carry 400 g of Agi pyrotechnic. The vertical range at
an angle of 85° is indicated to be 6000 m which
allows coverage of an area with a radius of 3 km at
the altitude of the -soc isotherm. After ejection of
the Agi nuclei (10 12 g- 1 active at -l0°C) the rocket
should be destroyed by a charge of 30 g of TNT. In-
tending to use these rockets in their hail suppression
experiment, the Swiss have tested their flight trajec-
tories and the size of the fragments (Waldvogel
et al., 1975). In seven tests an average vertical
range of 3050 m firing at an elevation of 70° was
obtained, which is essentially half of what was in-
FIG. 5. Fragments of a Yugoslav antihail-rocket Sako-6.
dicated on the specification sheet. The range of the
reagent dispersion (which is adjustable) was between
11 and 14 s and in no case did the dispersion the area assigned to each firing station can actually
correspond to the setting. The fragments, after destruc- be covered. In 1975 the Yugoslavs initiated the
tion, are shown in Fig. 5. The largest piece had a weight construction of a more powerful rocket. In the light of
of 182 g but it consisted of low density organic these facts the 70% damage reduction in the Yugoslav
material, so that it could have been tolerated. The polygons seems very doubtful. The construction of a
rocket contains only 320 g of pyrotechnic mixture more powerful rocket was apparently terminated in
which consists of 48.8% Agi, 37.9% ammonium 1976.
perchlorate, 10.7% organic binder and the rest in-
organic material. One rocket is thus able to produce 5. Swiss randomized hail suppression experiment-
5 x 10 14 active nuclei at -20°C or 8 x 1013 at -10°C. Grossversuch IV
Since an attempt is made to deliver 104 nuclei m- 3 at
the -l0°C isotherm one rocket is theoretically able Grossversuch IV is a collaborative project, co-
to seed 8 km 3 of accumulation zone. Since the rockets ordinated by the Institute for Atmospheric Physics of
only reach 3 km (approximately the freezing level) the ETH in Zurich and including the participation of
seeding material must be carried upwards by updrafts universities and government agencies of France, Italy
if the accumulation zone is to be seeded properly. A and Switzerland. Each participating group contributes
more serious deficiency is the fact that, due to the low its particular expertise to the following defined objec-
vertical range of the rockets, only a small fraction of tive of the project: to test whether a hail suppression
220 PART II : HAIL SUPPRESSION

method similar to the one proposed by scientists in the
USSR, using their high altitude rockets, can success-
fully be applied in Central Europe, taking into account
the climatic and logistic boundary conditions of our
regions. The requirements for carrying out such an
experiment are 1) a test area with no air traffic, a
high hail frequency, no valuable crops and no "people
problems;" 2) a 3 em radar with PPI and RHI for
measuring the parameters needed for the seeding
criterion, 3) five launchers for the Soviet Oblako
rockets to cover an area of 1000 km2 with sufficient
overlap, 4) a 10 em radar with PPI to measure pre-
cipitation quantitatively, and 5) a ground network of
hailpads with sufficient density to measure kinetic
energy and mass of hail in the test area. The area
chosen lies between Lucerne and Langnau and is
depicted in Fig. 6 together with the horizontal range
of the Soviet rockets and boundaries of the French and
Italian ground networks.
In this area an average of 41 thunderstorm days per
year occur with 24 also being hail days (Federer eta!. ,
1977). This means that in a randomized experiment
about 12 seeding days per year can be expected in
the experimental area with an estimated average of two
independent, seeded hail cells per seeding day. If the
randomization is made on the basis of 50% seed and
50% control days, a duration of five years (120
independent hail cells seeded and 120 unseeded) should
be sufficient to detect a hail decrease of >50%, which
can be expected if the Soviet reports are correct.
In the operational headquarters two radars are used
to determine the seeding criterion and to measure the
precipitation quantitatively (Cloud Physics Group
ETH, 1976). The 3 em radar, beamwidth 2.4° with
iso-echo contours (IEC' s), is mainly used in the RHI
mode to measure the maximum reflectivity Zmax of a
thunderstorm cell, the height of z max and of the cloud
top. These values and the temperatures from a sound-
ing corresponding to these heights are used to calculate
in real time a "hail probability" P. If P ;:3 50%,

FIG. 6. Schematic map of the Swiss experimental area (1000 km2 , double line) with hailpad
networks and rocket stations. The thick circles are the effective diameters of the Oblako plus
PGIM-rocket system. The rectangular networks are supplied and serviced by French (north) and
Italian (south) workers. Hailpads are spaced 2.0 km apart. The Swiss graupelpads, spaced 500 m
apart, are situated along the road from Luzern- Wolhusen to the western end and between
Wolhusen and Langnau. The command post with the radars (X) is in the center of the large distance
circles.
BRUNO FEDERER
Zrnax ~ 45 dB and Hz ~ ooc isotherm one rocket is
fired about every 5"xmin. The firing instructions
(azimuth, elevation and time setting for parachute
release) are transmitted by radar to a favorably located
rocket station two minutes after the measurements.
The seeding agent begins to burn downwind from the
weak echo and continues during the horizontal path of
the rocket. At the edge of the strong echo (Zrnax
- 10 dBZ) the parachute is opened and a massive
vertical seeding follows.
In seeding an attempt is made to introduce into the
accumulation zone 105 -106 active ice nuclei per cubic
meter of air at the -soc level. The Oblako rocket
containing 5.2 kg of seeding material is used. It consists
of a head, an engine, a parachute compartment and a
remote control mechanism, and costs about $1000.
During the rocket's flight a time fuse causes the pyro-
technic composition to begin burning 5 s after launch-
ing. Ice nuclei are released for 45 s of the flight and
the 5.2 kg of pyrotechnic mixture is distributed over
about 5 km of the rocket path. The mixture releases
about 3 kg of Pbi2 or Agi smoke which yields 5 x 1015
ice nuclei active at -10°C [(1-2 x 1012 active nuclei per
gram of Agi)]. In late 1976 a pyrotechnic mixture
containing only 2% Agi but having an equivalent
output of active nuclei will be available in the USSR.
The rocket launcher TKB-04 is designed to hold four
rockets. The single-stage PGIM rockets which reach an
altitude of 4200 m are used for zones in the immediate
vicinity of the launcher and the Oblako which reaches
a maximum altitude of 8 km (at 85° elevation) is used
for distances greater than 2.5 km.
The 10 em radar, beamwidth 1.6°, is used to measure
precipitation below the freezing level. The PPI is
photographed in steps of 5 dBZ provided by an IEC.
A continuing effort is being made to determine the
hail threshold. If it is verified that reflectivities about
55 dBZ and lasting more than 2 min correspond to hail
on the ground (Waldvogel and Federer, 1976) and
lower reflectivities to only rain, this threshold can
be used to evaluate the seeding effect. The integral
It A(dBZrnax
to
- 55 dBZ) dt
for unseeded and seeded storms will be compared and
the null hypothesis is that it has the same magnitude in
both ensembles (1 0 is the time of the first seeding, t the
time when a particular contour disappears). If Zrnax is
greater than or equal to 60 dBZ, then weighted integrals
of the same form will be included in the evaluation.
The area A within two reflectivity contours can be
calculated on a computer from the digitized radar data.
The second test variable will be the kinetic energy of
hail falling on the 400 hailpads provided and serviced by
the French and Italian workers. Kinetic energy should
221
be drastically reduced if the diameters of the hailstones
decrease due to seeding. As forecast variables we will
use a thunderstorm index and the hail probability
calculated from a one-dimensional numerical cloud
model.
An alarm day will be declared according to the
synoptic situation at 0900 in the morning. If during the
day the seeding criterion is met, this day will also be a
hail day. Seed and no-seed days are declared according
to a random table at 0900, when the launching sites will
also be alerted. Since the decision whether to seed or
not is known to everybody the decision of the hail day
declarer must be documented. This is done by taking
photographs of the PPI during the determination of the
parameters ofthe criterion. In this way the experiment
will be basically free of subjective influences.
Research will be continued with the instrumented
vehicles which measure spectra of raindrops and hail-
stones and collect stones for various analyses (Federer
and Waldvogel, 1975). Whether this supporting
research can be extended to other areas depends on
the level of commitment with which France and Italy
participate in the experiment. Their main interest in
coming to Switzerland is to test the French hail core
theory with hailpad and radar data and to see whether
it is possible to detect an effect of the heavy and
accurately targeted seeding. But the overall goal of this
joint effort is to test whether an operation shaped
according to the Soviet scheme and using their material
really leads to a damage reduction, and whether it could
be introduced in regions with moderate air traffic.
6. Soviet Union
It is very likely that the Soviet methods of hail sup-
pression are the most successful that have yet been used.
Hail suppression is currently conducted on an opera-
tional basis in nine Republics and three different methods
of introduction of the seeding material are used. These
methods have been described by Battan (1969),
Marwitz (1973), Burtsev et al. (1974), Gaivoronski et al.
(1974), Lominadze et al. (1974) and Kartsivadze and
Salukvadze (1974). Here the following points will be
briefly discussed: the seeding criteria used in the
USSR, the safety of the rockets/shells, and the evalua-
tion of the results.
a. Seeding criteria
The seeding criteria are all based on the values of
maximum reflectivity Z max measured by a 3 em or dual-
wavelength radar and geometrical radar parameters
(heights of cloud of the accumulation zone Zrnax - 10
dBZ, and of Zrnax), as well as the corresponding
temperatures from a sounding. It is surprising that the
measurements of these parameters begin when logZ
222
> 2, but this is due to the low "hail threshold" of which are destroyed in the air after seeding, the
logZ ~ 3.4 (at least for Moldavia). The variation of the
parameters is then evaluated at short intervals, and as
soon as the complex parameter P, calculated on a small
analog computer and representing the hail probability,
reaches a threshold value, rockets are fired. But the
beginning of firing and the number of rockets or shells
also depend on the horizontal speed and the location of
the echo with respect to the ''protected area.'' The
small weight given to the reflectivity measurement is
the result of the use of X-band radar with strong
attenuation (exceptions are Burtsev's operations where
3 and 10 em radars are used to determine the hail
diameter). The fact that Zmax < 40 dBZ during acute
hail danger and intense firing indicates some unknown
but serious shortcoming of the radar set (at least in the
Alazani Valley). The objective measurements of the
parameters are merely used as guidelines for the final,
subjective decision of the head operator to fire rockets.
It is said that these operators are trained for two years
before they acquire enough skill ("opet") to decide
correctly when a particular echo needs a certain
amount of seeding material. The decision to fire, based
on the subjective interpretation by the head operator
of the time variation of P, the horizontal velocity of
the strong echo region (and its diameter D, in
Kartsivadze's operation) render the evaluation of the
results in a randomized experiment very difficult,
because the initial conditions of seeded and unseeded
clouds can vary considerably. If the reflectivity and
therefore the reflectivity gradients increase, the
diameter of the (Zmax - 10 dBZ) contour decreases.
According to the rules fewer rockets should be fired,
but in many cases the criterion is abandoned entirely
and firing continues at very short intervals. With the
rockets which have a seeding path of greater than 5 km,
seeding begins upwind from the storms outside the
echo, then the forward overhang is penetrated and the
rest of the seeding agent is delivered beneath the
accumulation zone between the -5 and -15aC iso-
therms. Because the exact location where the different
types of storms must be seeded is not known with
certainty, this procedure has a high probability of
seeding at the right place. Furthermore criss-crossing
the entire zone of enhanced reflectivity should guaran-
tee that both the hail formation and hail growth zones
are heavily seeded. In conclusion, the use of
geometrical parameters in addition to radar reflectivity
and the direct seeding of the entire area ahead of the
strongest echo are certainly very promising features.
b. Safety of the rockets
The safety of the rockets is a problem of particular
concern. With the Alazani rockets and Elbrus shells
PART II: HAIL SUPPRESSION
problem of fragments and unexploded shells is not
solved. If these fragments cannot be reduced in size
during the next few years, these devices will be
gradually abandoned in the whole USSR in favor of the
Oblako rocket which is brought down to earth on a
parachute. This rocket is now in use in Moldavia. The
largest fragments of the Alazani II rocket weigh 137 g
(steel) and 387 g (bakelite). More serious is the fact
that 0.5-1% of these devices are not destroyed in the
air, but detonate on the ground on impact or if local
people try to burn them. Because some serious
accidents have occurred the Soviets do not want to sell
these devices to the West. Since the Oblako rocket
does not contain a destruction charge, the danger
presented by the tube of 12.5 em diameter and weighing
16 kg is small. Nevertheless, in the Moldavian
polygons a large number of ''forbidden azimuths''
exist. This is because of the risk of the parachute not
opening, and the tube falling through a building.
c. Evaluation of the results
The evaluation of the results of hail suppression is
mostly based on an analysis of damaged area before
seeding began and the comparison with the damage in
the protected area after seeding. Also a target-control
analysis is performed. It is realized now that the
insurance data (by Gosstrah) are not suitable as a
measure of crop damage since the existing system to
compensate the collective farms for the loss is no
quantitative measure of hail (Gaivoronski et al., 1974).
Instead in some areas rain-hail separators are installed.
However, in most regions reports from mobile crews,
consisting of representatives of the farms, the
insurance company and the hail suppression groups,
are used to estimate the area damaged by hail. These
areas decreased in the target region during the last
decade by 50 to 90%. Since the separators are
spaced by about 5 km and the methods used by the
mobile crews to monitor damage are not very clear,
these statistics are not entirely convincing. Further-
more, the control areas were gradually reduced in favor
of the protected areas so that the controls became
increasingly scarce. Although these statistics are not
convincing, a substantial reduction of hail may still
have occurred since directors of collective farms
simply state that they did not have hail for years. On the
other hand reports of large hail in protected areas can
be read in the Soviet press and scientists freely admit
that they cannot suppress hail from clouds which are
very severe and whose tops reach above about 13 km
(Kartsivadze and Salukvadze, 1974). In any case it
seems highly desirable to test one of the Soviet
methods outside the USSR in a randomized experi-
BRUNO FEDERER
ment. The Soviet-Swiss collaboration in Grossversuch
IV has been such that we have a good chance of
getting a statistically significant result after five years.
REFERENCES
Admirat, P., J. F. Mezeix and A. Fraisse, 1974: Mise au point d'un
generateur a tres haut rendement. Report to SOREM, GIEFA
Valence, 16 pp.
- - , 1973: N atura1 hail cores and their ability to estimate the
efficiency of hail prevention systems. Proc. WMOIIAMAP
Sci. Conf. Weather Modification, Tashkent, WMO No. 399,
197-206.
Battan, L. J., 1969: Weather modification in the USSR-1969.
Bull. A mer. Meteor. Soc., SO, 924-945.
Boutin, C., 1972: Sur Ia metholologie du controle des effets
des operations de prevention de Ia grele. Arch. Meteor.
Geophys. Bioklim., 820, 353-364.
- - , 1970: Statistical studies on French operations for hail sup-
pression. Preprints 2nd. Nat. Conf. Weather Modification,
Santa Barbara, A mer. Meteor. Soc., 134-137.
Burtsev, 1., I. Gaivoronski and A. I. Kartsivadze, 1974: Hail
process investigation and hail suppression activities in the
USSR. Proc. WMOIIAMAP Sci. Conf. Weather Modification,
Tashkent, WMO No. 399, 189-196.
Cloud Physics Group ETH, 1976: Bericht tiber das Feldexperiment
im Napfgebiet 1. Juni-30. September 1975. Wiss. Mitteilung
der Eidg. Hagelkommission, No. 75, 310 pp.
Dessens, H., J. Dessens and J. P. Lacaux, 1970: Controle d'une
experience de lutte contre Ia grele par analyse d'une courbe
double-masse des pourcentages de degats. J. Rech. Atmos.
4, No.2.
Federer, B., 1968: The influence of surface properties of semi-
conductors on ice nucleation. Z. Angew. Math. Phys., 19,
637-665.
- - , 1971: Supported silver iodide as an ice nucleus. Wiss.
Mitteilung der Eidg. Hagelkommission, No. 66, 6 pp.
- - , and A. Waldvogel, 1975: Hail and raindrop size distributions
from a Swiss multicell storm. J. Appl. Meteor., 14, 91-97.
223
--,B., A. Waldvogel, W. Schmid, F. Hampel, E. Rosini, D. Vento,
P. Admirat, and J. P. Rouet, 1977: Grossversuch IV: Design of
a randomized hail suppression experiment using the Soviet
method. Eidg. Hagelkommission, Wiss. Mitt, No. 81, Ztirich,
ETH, 35 pp.
Gaivoronsky, 1., L. A. Dinewitch and N. M. Zaitchenko, 1974:
Research into hail-forming processes and the results of anti-
hail protection measures in Moldavia. Proc. WMOIIAMAP Sci.
Conf. Weather Modification, Tashkent, WMO No. 399, 217-223.
Kartsivadze, A. I. and T. G. Salukvadze, 1974: Radar charac-
teristics of cumulonimbus clouds during their natural develop-
ment and artificial seeding. Proc. WMOIIAMAP Sci. Conf.
Weather Modification, Tashkent, WMO No. 399, 465-472.
Lominadze, V. P., I. I. Bartishvili and S. L. Gudushauri, 1974:
On the results of protection of crops from hail by the THRI
method. Proc. WMOIIAMAP Sci. Conf. Weather Modification,
Tashkent, WMO No. 399, 225-230.
Marwitz, J.D., 1973: Hailstorms and hail suppression techniques in
the USSR-1972. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 54, 317-325.
Molenat, J., 1975: Technique de Ia prevision des risques de grele.
Bull. ANLCFA, No. 23, April, 19-20.
Morgan, G. M., 1973: A general description of the hail problem
in the Po Valley of northern Italy. J. Appl. Meteor., 12,
338-353.
Picca, R., 1971: An operational method of hail suppression in
France. Proc. Int. Conf. Weather Modification, Canberra,
Australia, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 211-212.
Radinovic, D., 1972: Hail control. 124 pp. [NTIS, Springfield,
Va., 22151].
Vento, D., 1972: La determinazione della energia di impatto della
grandine. Rev. /tal. Geofis., 21,73-77.
Waldvogel, A., D. Hiigl, M. Witzig and B. Federer, 1975: Projekt
Grossversuch IV; Bericht tiber das Feldexperiment im Napf-
gebiet 1. Juni-15. September 1974. Wiss. Mitteilung der
Eidgen, Hagelkommission No. 72, 165 pp.
- - , and B. Federer, 1976: Large raindrops and the boundary
between rain and hail. Pre prints 17th Conf. Radar Meteorology,
Seattle, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 167-172.
 Design and Evaluation of Hail Suppression Experiments
JOHN A. FLUECK

Department of Statistics, Temple University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

PAUL W. MIELKE, JR.

Department of Statistics, Colorado State University, Fort Collins

ABSTRACT

A number of field hail suppression experiments have been conducted over the past quarter of a century. A review
of these experiments suggests that little information of basic scientific value appears to have been produced by
these efforts. It is believed that this situation can be improved upon through better design, implementation and
evaluation of field hail suppression experiments. A number of components of a properly designed field hail
suppression experiment are presented and discussed. Suggestions are offered on how to accomplish these tasks.

1. Prologue fication experiments are difficult to conduct, but

. . . . I must add one discouragement more, which
will perhaps as much surprise as dishearten you; and
it is, that besides that you will find (as we elsewhere
mention) many of the experiments published by
authors, or related to you by the persons you
converse with, false and unsuccessful (besides this, I
say), you will meet with several observations and
experiments which, though communicated for true
by candid authors or undistrusted eye-witnesses, or
perhaps recommended by your own experience,
may, upon further trial, disappoint your expectation,
either not at all succeeding constantly, or at least
varying much from what you expected.
Robert Boyle, 1673
Concerning the Unsuccessfulness of Experiments
The design and evaluation of an experiment com-
mences with its purposive plan for experimentation and
proceeds through its data collection, data reduction,
analysis, interpretation and reporting stages. Con-
sequently, this paper will attempt to explore and
discuss, from a "designing for" viewpoint, each of
these stages in the context of a field hail suppression
experiment. The approach will be largely prescriptive,
but some supporting evidence will be presented.
The above quotation by Robert Boyle (1627-1691),
the outstanding English natural philosopher and one of
the founding fathers of modem chemistry, indicates
that concern with the design, operation, and results of
an experiment is not a new phenomenon [full quotation
given in Fisher (1960)].
Numerous conferences, committees and authors
have called for well-designed field experiments in
weather modification. One of the early proponents was
the Skyline Conference Report (NAS-NRC, 1959)
which stated, "Scientifically designed weather modi-
are extremely important for increasing our knowledge
of natural and artificially stimulated precipitation
processes. Such experiments should be carefully
planned.'' More recently, the Committee on Atmos-
pheric Sciences, National Research Council (NRC,
1973) recommended ". . . for the realization of the
possibility of ameliorating hail damage to agricultural
crops and property, well-designed and controlled
hail-modification experiments should be conducted."
Given these well intentioned exhortations, one might
hope that some of the past field research experiments on
hail suppression would have been well designed and
produced some definitive answers. Table 1 presents a
list of the past field hail suppression experiments known
to the authors that were primarily research oriented and
included seeding trials. The experiments are listed in
order of the year of their initiation and are classified on a
few basic characteristics of location, time period,
design type, experimental unit, treatment application,
response variables and indicated effects. A more
detailed classification of some of these experiments has
been provided by Schleusener (1968) and questioned by
Battan (1969).
The table highlights some interesting points. First,
the early field research experiments were not con-
ducted in the United States. In fact, in the twenty-two
years spanned by the table, only six of the fifteen
experiments were conducted in this country. Second,
the majority of the most recent experiments (1964 on)
have been conducted in the United States, in particular
in the states of Colorado, North Dakota, and South
Dakota. Third, the period of experimentation of the
non-United States experiments has been considerably
longer (median of seven years) than the U. S.
experiments (median ofthree years). In fact, with only
one exception (Grossversuch II) all non-U. S. experi-

225
 226 PART II: HAIL SUPPRESSION

TABLE 1. A list and summary of past hail suppression field research experiments.

Treat-
De- Experi- ment Hail Indicated
General Time sign mental applica- response effects
Experiment location period type unit tion variables Hail Rain Reference
1. Grossversuch II Ticino, Switzer- 1953-56 SA day NR HD,CD NI NI Schmid (1967)
land
2. Grossversuch III Ticino, Switzer- 1957-63 SA day R HD,CD + ± Schmid (1967)
land
3. Alberta Hail Edmonton, 1957-72 SA storms NR E,CD,Z 0 NI Summers and Renick
Studies Canada (1971)
4. Mendoza Mendoza, 1959-64 SA day R CD,A ± NI Iribarne and Grandoso
Argentina (1965)
5. AEMLFA "Southwest" 1959-68 SA season NR CD 0 NI Boutin et al. (1970)
France
6. Colorado State "Northeast" 1959 SA storm NR A,E,M ± + Schleusener (1962}
Colo.
7. VGI Armenia, USSR 1961-69 SA day NR CD,Z NI Sulakvelidze et al. (1967,
1974)
8. IGAN Georgia, USSR 1961-70 SA day NR CD,Z NI Sulakvelidze et al. (1967,
1974)
9. TSAO Moldavia, USSR 1964-70 SA day NR CD,Z NI Sulakvelidze et al. ( 1967,
1974)
10. ACMG Lot-et-Garonne, 1964-68 SA day NR HD,CD 0 NI Boutin et al. ( 1970)
France
11. Hailswath Rapid City, S.D. 1966 co day R E,V,A ± + Goyer, et al. (1966)
12. Rapid Rapid City, S.D. 1966-68 co day R E,V,A ± Schleusener et al. (1970)
13. Grand River McLaughlin, S.D. 1967-69 SA day NR E + Schleusener et al. (1970)
14. North Dakota Watford City, 1969-72 SA two days R HD,E, + Miller et al. (1975)
Pilot Project N.D. CD,Z
15. NHRE Sterling, Colo. 1970-74 SA day R M,E 0 0 Long et al. (1976)
SA =single area; CO= crossover; NR = nonrandomized; R =randomized; HD =number of days with hail; CD =crop damage;
+ = increases;
E = impact energy; V = volume of melted hail; Z = radar reflectivity; M = mass of hail; A = presence of hail in area;
- =decreases; ± =increases and decreases; 0 =none; NI =no indication given.

ments have beenaslongorlongerthan the longest U.S.
experiment. Fourth, thirteen of the fifteen experiments
have been single area experiments and thus no within
experimental unit control was utilized. Fifth, the
majority used the day (or a subset of it) as the
experimental unit. Sixth, only six of the fifteen were
randomized experiments with the U. S. experiments
heading the list with four out of six. Seventh, most of
the experiments focused on more than one response
variable with two or three being most common. Eighth,
the indicated effects for both hail and rain as reported
by the researchers vary from claimed decreases
through increases, often with weak evidence (i.e.,
relatively large P-values, inappropriate analyses, and
misuse of data [see NRC (1973, pp. 104-105) for an
example of this last point]. Thus, it is not surprising to
find the National Academy of Science-National
Research Council (1966) stating, "There is a wide range
of opinion on whether or not hail can be effectively
suppressed or its damage mitigated", and more
recently (NRC, 1973) to remark, "For the most part,
this conclusion is still valid." In short, the jury is still
out.
2. What to do in the meantime
Given the above state of affairs, one needs to return
to fundamentals-construct and implement better
plans for experimentation. These plans should include
proper attention to the following specific components:
working models, variables, treatment design, data
management, and analyses of data and interpretation of
results. The first four components will be presented in
this section.
a. Working models
Fundamental to all experimentation is clear and
concise thinking about the questions of interest and
how one can meaningfully approach them. In particu-
lar, physical "working models" should be developed,
JOHN A. FLUECK AND PAUL W. MIELKE, JR.
hopefully in some detail, prior to the experimental
period. These models are developed from subject
matter ideas and past results and are termed' 'working''
to emphasize that they are incomplete descriptions of
reality and subject to improvement. The working model
may be a loose description of a chain of physical
processes [e.g. Russian hail model (Sulakvelidze et al.,
1974)] at one end of the spectrum to a precise set of
physically based mathematical equations [e.g. cumulus
towers (Simpson, 1971)] at the other.
The development of these working models generally
requires exploratory or preliminary studies both in the
laboratory and in the field. This point has been stated
before (NAS-NRC, 1959). "The effectiveness of for-
mal testing programs can be greatly enhanced by care-
fully conducted preliminary studies of cloud and other
atmospheric conditions prevailing in a proposed test
area. . . . Preliminary studies will also be appropriate
to assure that the intended treatment will be realized in
practice during the test program."
These working models are evaluated by comparing
their predictions with field collected data. However,
because the models usually are many dimensional and
incomplete descriptions, they must be transformed to
"statistical models" for the evaluation. The statistical
models may be as simple as the estimation of the
difference in location or scale between treated and not
treated units (Moran, 1970) for specific dimensions
(i.e., hail energy, crop damage, rainfall, etc.) to the
more complex multivariate stochastic (LeCam, 1961) or
multivariate linear (Wu et al., 1972) models with their
associated assumptions.
b. Variables
The variables are simply the quantification of the
dimensions of the project that one desires to measure in
order to monitor the project's performance and gain
knowledge about the processes. These dimensions are
quantified by instrumentation and thus "define"
variables that are hopefully ''close cousins'' to the
original dimensions of interest.
Two types of variables will be discussed; response
variables, and auxiliary or "predictor" variables.
Response variables are those dimensions or quantities
of a project that one observes in anticipation of finding a
response to the "treatment". The response variables
are not always obvious.
As Table 1 indicates, the response variable utilized in
past hail suppression field experiments have included
crop damage, presence-absence of hail, impact energy,
volume of hail, mass of hail, hail-rain ratio, radar
reflectivity, etc. Changnon (1969) has reviewed eight
potential "hail measurement techniques" (i.e.,
cooperative observers, crop-hail insurance, radar
227
echos, mobile field survey, passive hailpad, aerial
photography, infrared radiometry, and hailgage) and
the advantages and disadvantages of each of the
resulting response variables are indicated. No one
response variable seems to do it all.
In large field experiments, more than one response
variable is often utilized. One reason for this multiplic-
ity is that the cost and effort preclude one from readily
repeating the experiment and thus, every attempt must
be made to detect the treatment effects. The chances of
detection are increased by the use of multiple response
variables, especially when there is considerable uncer-
tainty as to the form of the possible treatment effect.
However, a "sharper" project is generally produced if
one or two response variables are used as the central
focus and the others are viewed as secondary.
The auxiliary or predictor variables (Brier, 1974) are
measured because they are considered related to, and
instrumental in, producing and assessing the treatment
effects. Some of these variables are used for pre-
screening of the treatment opportunities (prior to
treatment identification of suitable experimental units).
Examples include vertical velocity, relative humidity,
temperature, pressure, CCN, cloud ice concentration,
precipitation prior to the treatment, etc.
Others, including some of the same variables, are
used for postscreening (posterior to treatment) in order
to damp the observed variability and better assess the
treatment effect. In either case, the preferred approach
is to measure not only those predictor variables that are
directly a part of the implicit or explicit working
models, but also a few of the variables that presently are
considered less directly related. It is not unusual for
some members of this later group to eventually prove to
be of primary importance in the assessment of the
treatment effect (Neyman et al., 1969; Flueck, 1971;
Mielke et al., 1971). History has well shown that
serendipity is very much a part of scientific discovery.
Instrumentation, or the generation of the values of
the response and predictor variables, is a sizable topic
in itself and will be discussed only briefly here.
Typically, some combination of groundbased, aircraft,
and remote probing instrumentation will be required for
a weather modification project. However, the primary
emphasis should be on reliable proven instrumentation
with automatic self-recording capability. The time and
space resolution will depend on the particular cir-
cumstances.
c. Treatment design
This component is directed at designating what is to
be treated, where, when, how, how much, and how
often. More formally, the design determines the
treatment unit, where it will be applied, when and how it
228
will be applied, how much will be applied, and how
often it will need to be applied.
The determination of the treatment or experimental
unit typically follows from the objectives and working
models of the experiment. As Table 1 indicates, the day
is often used as the experimental unit. The benefits are
somewhat obvious: it 1) meaningfully handles the
diurnal cycle, 2) allows for both day and night-time
treatment, 3) provides a natural "clearing period"
between treatment units, 4) typically provides for
considerable replication of the treatment, and 5)
produces a convenient operational time unit.
A second question concerning the treatment unit is
whether "pre-screening" should be used. Pre-
screening simply means that only certain designated
days will be declared as operational days. This
pre-screening is often based on a forecast, a model
prediction, radar echo characteristics of the day's
activity, etc. The motivation for pre-screening gener-
ally comes from two sources-desire for homogeneity
of treatment units, and economic constraints. The
former often can be properly achieved by post-
screening (partitioning of the data after the fact) using
variables that are unaffected by the treatment, and
hence it is the latter that often commands the principal
attention.
In selecting pre-screening criteria, we believe that
any error should be in the direction of heterogeneity. As
the NAS-NRC (1959) so well suggested, "Field ex-
periments should be designed with a broad approach
to the problem so as to yield information on a number of
important questions." Accepting some heterogeneity
in the treatment units allows one to pursue more
relationships and over broader physical conditions.
Researchers are often interested in gaining a finer
resolution of the ''action'' than provided by the
experimental unit. The observational unit is the device
used to secure this finer resolution, for it allows one to
collect information on a subset of the experimental
units and hopefully produces a better picture of the
process. The use of observational units has proved, at
times, to produce the strongest evidence of the
treatment effect (Flueck, 1971; Chappell e t a/. , 1971).
The determination of where the treatment will be
applied and where it will be evidenced brings us back to
the working models of the atmospheric process of
interest and to consideration of the physical configura-
tion of the project's target and control areas. Both the
National Research Council (1973) and Brier (1974)
present a number of alternative configurations (target
only, target-control, crossover, etc.). One generally
favors something other than a target only design,
provided that the absolute value of the correlation, IpI,
between the two areas is >0.3 (based on 1 - p2 ) and that
PART II: HAIL SUPPRESSION
the possibility of contamination in the control is
minimal.
Schleusener et al. (1965) finds "no significant
correlation'' between two areas ~ 25 mi apart. U nfortu-
nately the two variables being correlated were not
clearly indicated and the numerical results were not
presented. Schickedanz et al. (1969) found a p of +0.57
for the correlation of annual "hail days" between two
areas that were about 40 mi apart in central Illinois.
Finally, Long et al. (1976) have found a north-south
correlation in the NHRE 1972-74 data of +0.42 and an
east-west correlation of +0.66 for days with hail. Thus,
the correlation evidence appears to favor a two-area
design.
Table 1 indicates that the majority of the past hail
research experiments utilized a single area (target-only)
design. Thorn (1957), Schleusener et al. (1965) and
Schickedanz et al. (1969) have presented explanations
and some evidence of the optimality of the single area
design over all contenders. These views are somewhat
surprising in view of the fact that one can demonstrate
that a two-area design is generally "much more
efficient" (Neyman et al., 1969; NRC, p. 131, 1973; Wu
et al., 1972) than the single-area design.
There are additional advantages of a two-area design.
First, the control area is an areal predictor and it also
allows one to measure other atmospheric quantities at a
location that is hopefully unaffected by treatment.
These quantities are then available as further predictors
in the analyses. Second, there is an increased opportun-
ity to check on the targeting or areal spread of the
treatment material. Third, randomization does not
guarantee that all meteorological factors, which might
effect the results, will be perfectly balanced (particu-
larly with small samples). However, the presence of an
areal control provides considerable protection against
possible unbalancedness or meteorological confound-
ing (the so-called "unfair draw").
As an example, if on the average the seeded days are
found to have substantially greater humidity than the
non-seeded days, then the use of the within experimen-
tal unit (day) difference between the target and control
allows one to begin to separate the possible seeding
effect from the humidity effect.
It should be noted (Wu eta/., 1972) that the crossover
design is favored unless 1) a contamination problem
exists, or 2) the variance of area one differs considera-
bly from the variance of area two and a sizable sequence
of no treatment observations exists for both areas,
assuming a stationary process.
But why stop with only two areas (target and
control)? Ever since the suggestion by Grant (1963) of
possible "downwind" or extended area treatment
effects, the interest and the evidence for their presence
JOHN A. FLUECK AND PAUL W. MIELKE, JR.
a. Single area
c. Three area
FIG. 1. Some possible area configuration designs.
has been growing (Brier and Kline, 1966; Neyman and
Scott, 1972; Janssen et al., 1974). Accordingly, a three
or more area design may be appropriate. Fig. 1 presents
some possible area configuration design types. It should
be remembered that the target area is simply the
intended target of the effect and not necessarily the
actual area of effect.
The choice between alternative design configurations
is largely dependent on the local climatological
conditions, the physical processes under investigation,
the diffusion of the treatment material, and the cost
constraints. To our knowledge, the problem of detec-
tion of extra area effects has received little attention in
the design stage of an experiment. This is unfortunate in
that, as stated above, this topic is of major current
concern.
The determination of when and how the treatment
will be applied and how much should be applied
depends largely on the previously mentioned working
models and the treatment (seeding) methodology.
Three points are worthy of note here.
First, the desire is to allocate units for treatment such
that one can gain the highest quality and largest amount
of information. This translates to the "spreading" of
the treatment over differing identified meteorological
conditions in order to control confounding and to
eliminate situations where the researchers have ad-
229
b. Two area
d. Circular five area
vance notice, regarding the forthcoming treatment
decision.
Second, given these considerations, we strongly
advocate the use of randomization in assigning the
treatment to the experimental units. The preferred
allocation design seems to be either a constrained
randomization (Youden, 1972) or randomized blocks.
Our preference is the latter, with the block size based on
a full preliminary study of the climatological conditions
and equal treatment and non-treatment sample sizes in
each block. This would simply mean that the groups
(blocks) of operational days (perhaps 2, 4, 6 or 8
experimental units) would have an equal number of
seeded and non-seeded days. The larger block size
allows one to investigate possible short-term persist-
ence. The blocking is an attempt at obtaining
meteorological homogeneity between the seeded and
non-seeded days and the double-blind procedure is
advocated to prevent information on the treatment
decision from influencing the implementation and
analysis of the experiment.
Third, in many disciplines (medicine, biology,
chemical engineering, etc.) when the optimal amount of
treatment (dosage level) is not known, controlled
experimentation is encouraged in order to search for the
optimal level (Davies, 1956; Cochran and Cox, 1957).
Weather modification projects would do well to follow
230 PART II: HAIL SUPPRESSION

TABLE 2. Relationship between n and R.
R n
Minor help 0.10 0.99K
0.20 O.%K
0.30 0.91K
Major help 0.40 0.84K
0.50 0.75K
0.60 0.64K
Enormous help 0.70 0.51K
0.80 0.36K
0.90 0.19K
0.95 O.IOK
0.99 0.02K
these practices. A common technique involves search-
ing on both sides of the initial prescribed dosage level.
Admittedly, this may be difficult.
Lastly, the determination of how often the treatment
should be applied includes the question of what
treatment sample size should allow one to detect the
treatment effect. The standard approach to estimating
total sample size is via hypothesis testing employing the
probabilities of type I (a) and type II ({3) errors (Cochran
and Cox, 1957). This gives the following result (for
n = 2n 8 = 2nNs) for total sample size:
where R 2 is the coefficient of determination from a
regression of response on predictor variables. The term
1 - R 2 allows for the predictor variables to explain
some of the natural variability and thus reduce the noise
level.
An alternative approach to estimating total sample
size is via estimation [i.e., the confidence interval
approach (Cochran, 1963)]. Again, allowing for predic-
tor variables, this approach yields the following result
for total sample size:
(2)
where d designates the specified maximum absolute
difference between the population and sample mean
treatment differences [i.e., I(J.ts - JLNs) - CXs - XNs) I]
which will be exceeded only a of the time. The dif-
ferent results of these two total sample size estimates,
(1) and (2), stem from the two different inference
approaches (i.e., testing versus estimation).
Whichever approach is taken, the relationship
between n and R can be expressed as n = K (1 - R 2 ).
Thus, one can quickly determine the reduction in
sample size achieved by utilizing predictor variables.
Table 2 presents some values for the relationship
between n and R for a given K. As Table 2 indicates,
"good" predictor variables can dramatically reduce the
number of replications needed to produce a high chance
of detecting the treatment effect.
d. Data management
Data management is usually given only passing
attention in the design of a weather modification
experiment. This hopefully is changing since recently
data management has become a topic of its own in
information science [Martin, 1976]. The three following
items will be briefly discussed: (i) data collection, (ii)
data reduction, and (iii) data-base construction. We will
define data collection to encompass both data acquisi-
tion and preliminary data editing. Data reduction will
refer to the preparation and processing of the data prior
to analysis. Database construction will refer to the
organization and management of the data such that they
are well indexed and can be easily utilized.
Although weather modification experiments typi-
cally entail the collection of data by three basic systems
(i.e., ground-level, aircraft and remote sensing), we will
focus on the ground-level network. Many of the points
discussed also will apply to the other two systems.
Needless to say, these points should be given their
appropriate attention.
Ideally one would like a ground based grid of
sampling (data acquisition) points that would correctly
record all hail events in their appropriate characteris-
tics, store this information in machine (computer)
readable form, and provide an easy error-free readout
of the acquired data.
Given that one is restricted to a finite number of
sampling points, the mesh size of the grid becomes an
important question. Changnon (1964) has concluded
that "at least one observation point per two miles
square" is required in Illinois to accurately define the
area of damaging hail. More recently, he has concluded
(Changnon, 1968) that "one or more observation sites"
per mile square are needed. Clearly, further study is
needed on this problem.
Basically, the following two approaches are available
·for assessing grid size: trial and error, and statistical
modeling using past hail and rain data. Both ap-
proaches focus on assessing the time and space
variability of a response variable. Again, the impor-
tance of preliminary studies is indicated.
Table 3 presents a summary of some data on
hailswaths observed in Illinois and South Dakota. The
indication is that hailswaths typically have a west-east
orientation, travel at roughly a median speed of 30 mph,
are relatively long and narrow, and may differ from year
to year. This evidence and the previous discussion
clearly indicate an urgent need for developing formal
JOHN A. FLUECK AND PAUL W. MIELKE, JR. 231

statistical models for handling the response grid TABLE 3. Summary data on hailswaths in Illinois and South Dakota
as defined by two or more points with hail.
problem.
Each ground-level hail measuring instrument's out- Median
put should be sampled for quality each day, by the staff Number direction Median Median Median
of of speed length width
member in charge, and immediately be processed to Project hailswaths motion (mph) (mi) (mi)
disk storage for a preliminary edit (this might well apply
1. Eastern
to all measuring instruments). The model to emulate Illinois
here is the quality control of the large public opinion a. 1967-68 177 264 20 5.9 1.1
survey. It typically has a field edit of the questionnaires, b. 1971-72 81 270 33 3.7 1.4
followed immediately by a central office edit, and then 2. Illinois 63 260 26 9 2.2
(8 years)
quality checks as the data are being sequentially coded,
computerized, and organized. Suspect data, faulty 3. Hailswath 82 270 38 14 2.0
equipment, and mistakes are quickly discovered and Sources: Changnon and Towery (1972) and Changnonet al. (1967).
corrected while the survey (experiment) is still in the
field. Processing (data cleaning, editing, coding, etc.) of
least) to collect a large set of data and then be forced to
the data commences shortly after the experiment is
analyze it only peripherally because of its overwhelm-
initiated and proceeds at a steady rate. Then, the
ing size and insufficient organization.
cleaned and edited database is organized and ready for
analysis at a much earlier date.
3. What to do between time
It should be noted that in sample surveying, plans for
data collection and data reduction are constructed and Many experiments have a periodic collection or
disseminated well in advance of the field work. As the acquisition of data. The "between time" is then
field work commences, supervision is increased and dedicated to exploring the assembled data for indica-
diminishes only as each member of the survey team tions of relationships and the consequent ''sharpening''
reaches a desired performance level. Pilot testing of of the experiment for the next round. In this section, we
both the data collection and the data reduction systems will discuss the exploration of a database and the
are undertaken before the main production run. These confirmation of its results from a data analyst view-
procedures seem readily transferable to weather point.
modification experiments. Data analysis is not a new discipline. Rather, it is an
The general goal of database construction and old one receiving fresh and growing attention. Johann
maintenance is to produce a database that is well Kepler (1571-1630), John Graunt (1620-1674) and
organized and can be easily retrieved, updated, Benjamin Franklin (1706-1790) are all examples of
displayed, and summarized (including the interrelation- early practitioners of this subject. More recently,
ships). For a hail suppression experiment, this would Tukey (1962, 1977), Tukey and Wilk (1965), Neyman
include the ability to instantly retrieve a given day, or (1967) and Mosteller and Tukey (1968), among others,
subset of the day, and get a well-organized summary of have been renovating and redefining the theory and
the designated variables of interest. An MIS (manage- methodology of data analysis. It should be noted that
ment information system) type system is probably different viewpoints exist on the methodology of data
needed for such performance. analysis. Examples of the use of data analysis in
The advantages of such a system are numerous. weather modification research include Brier and Enger
First, the ability to quickly compare newly collected (1952), Neyman and Scott (1961), Grant and Mielke
data with that previously collected is helpful in (1967), Flueck (1971), Biondini (1976) and many others.
maintaining quality data at all sampling points. Second, Of course data analysis has been employed in many
it allows one to explore (perform data analysis) quickly, other disciplines [for example, Bunker et al. (1969) in
profitably, and meaningfully. Last, it increases the medical research].
chances of finding predesignated relationships (i.e., Data analysis is dedicated to the extraction of the
specifically looked for) and those that inadvertently relevant informational content of a body of data through
reveal themselves. the employment of techniques directed at discovering,
Above all, one should not underestimate the effort exposing, and summarizing (all in an interactive
needed to construct and operate a well organized manner) the structure and relationships of a process.
database. It is the interface between the data collection Appropriate data analysis is not a substitute for a poorly
and the data analyses stages and as such is a very designed or implemented experiment, and its results
important element in all experimentation. Unfortu- require due caution in their interpretation.
nately, it is often given too low a priority in the Tukey (1962) has distinguished between exploratory
experiment. It is certainly "bad science" (at the very (finding patterns and relationships) and confirmatory
232 PART II: HAIL SUPPRESSION

(assessing the strength or support) data analysis, and
we will follow this dichotomy in presenting this view of
the characteristics of these two branches.
a. Exploration
The central idea of exploratory data analysis is the
repeated alternation of summarization and exposure
in order to distill the informational content from the
data. As Tukey and Wilk (1965) have so well stated,
''The iterative and interactive interplay of summarizing
by fit and exposing by residuals is vital to effective data
analysis. Summarizing and exposing are complemen-
tary and pervasive." As such, the data analyst always
views his data as
. ( incomplete
observatiOn = d . t' ) + ( residual )
escnp wn
if the additive model seems appropriate, or the product
ofthe two terms on the right if the multiplicative model
appears appropriate.
We have said "incomplete description" in place of
"fit" or "model" to emphasize that all models and fits
are simply approximations of reality. The goal of
exploratory data analysis is to keep moving the
information from the residuals to the incomplete
description. There is a clear hierarchy with the more
obvious relationships being uncovered first and the
more embedded ones being discovered later. The only
question is when to stop.
The techniques employed in data analysis may be as
simple as taking medians or means, smoothing,
partitioning, cross-classifying or fitting a line segment.
Many of the present statistical tools are useful in data
analysis, but they may be employed differently and may
be given a different interpretation (Hamaker, 1955;
Tukey and Wilk, 1965). After the fitting has occurred,
the incomplete description and the remaining residuals
will usually be displayed in order to judge what
information is still unexplained.
Display of the observations and/or residuals is an
important tool in effective data analysis. These displays
include scatter plots, graphs, stem-and-leaf plots,
schematic plots and cross-classification tables. As an
example, Fig. 2 presents the back-to-hack stem-and-
leaf plot of the seeded and non-seeded "hail day"
average values for the three years of the National Hail
Research Experiment, NHRE (Crow et al., 1976, Table
2). One can quickly note that zero is the most prevalent
value, the great majority of the values are less than 50,
only six seeded and four non-seeded values are greater
than 50, and there is one outlier. Compare this
informative display of the data with the simple listing of
the same data at the bottom of the figure. One readily
sees the importance of effective display because it
forces one to see and think about the possible
relationships.
The display of the data often encourages one to go
further and attempt to fit distributions (models) in order
to better describe and evaluate the precipitation
process. To date, the gamma and log-normal distribu-
tion have received the most attention in fitting
precipitation in weather modification. Neyman et al.
(1969), Moran (1970), and Simpson (1972) have found
the gamma preferred for a number of data sets and,
alternatively, Mielke and Johnson (1974) have found

SEEDED NON-SEEDED

(11) oo,oo,oo,oo,oo,oo,oo,oo,oo,oo,oo o oo,oo,oo,oo,oo,oo,oo,oo,oo,o9,oo,oo,oo,oo,oo (15)

(10) 37,36,33,32,11,11,05,02,01,01 00 01,01,04,04,07,08,10,16,20,32,39 (11)
(2) 77,53 so 61 (1}
100
1so 52 (1)
(2) 39,07 200
(2) 89,82 255 65 (1)
300
355
400
450
500
5SO
600
655
700 10 _ru_
(30}

Seeded: 289,00,00,00,33,00,36,00 Non-Seeded: 04,00,00,00,20,32,00,01

207,01,32,239,77,00,01,00 00,61,710,10,265,07,01,00
02,00,00,00,05,53,11,00,11 00,00,00,04,00,08,00,00
37,282 00,16,00,00,39,152
FIG. 2. Back-to-back stem-and-leaf plot of the NHRE seeded and non-seeded "hail day" separator-hail
averages (g m-2) for the years 1972, 1973, and 1974.
JOHN A. FLUECK AND PAUL W. MIELKE, JR.
the lognormal to be preferred for a number of data sets.
Mielke and Johnson (1974) also have found that specific
cases of the generalized beta distribution of the second
kind appear to fit such data often as well as, and
sometimes better than, the gamma and lognormal
distributions.
Transformations of the data often plays an important
role in exploratory data analysis. The aim is to
transform the data so that more useful information is
available. Brier (1974) has discussed the use of
transformations in weather modification research and
Neyman and Scott (1961) have presented a general
approach for correcting for bias due to the use of
transformations. Also, rank transformations are fre-
quently employed (e.g., Schmid, 1967; Flueck, 1971;
Mielke et al., 1971) in analyzing treatment effects.
Ratios of variables are often used in examining and
reporting results in weather modification. Flueck and
Holland (1976) have discussed the use of ratios in
weather modification and have presented results for the
moments and bias of the ratio of correlated gamma
random variables. Also a recent approach for modeling
proportions based on the beta distribution of the first
kind has been presented by Mielke (1975).
b. Confirmation
In the early days of data analysis (Kepler, etc.),
researchers seemed to focus primarily on exploratory
data analysis. Confirmation seemed to have been left to
"common sense." This often meant that the results, or
indications, were considered confirmed only when
other researchers were able to achieve them under
similar conditions. However, as experimentation ex-
panded it probably became more difficult to repeat
every new result, and some topics by their very nature
were difficult and expensive to replicate. At that point it
appears that more formal measures of the "strength"
of results were pursued.
Science, and the physical sciences in particular,
appeared to formalize the old system for measuring the
strength of a result (indication). Essentially this meant
that the strength of an indication was measured by 1) the
relative size of the result with respect to the natural
variability, 2) the consistency of the result over time
and conditions, 3) the meaningfulness of the result with
respect to other accepted results, and 4) the important
element ofpersonaljudgement. Data analysis appears to
utilize this approach to assess the strength of a result.
Tukey (1962), Calvin et al. (1974) and Brier (1974) have
presented discussion of the relative merits of
Bayesian, classical and data analysis methods for
interpreting results.
Tukey (1962) has emphasized the difference between
conclusions and indications. Indications apparently are
233
results that appear promtsmg, but have yet to be
strongly supported by the above criteria. Alternatively,
conclusions are indications that already have been
strongly supported by the criteria.
We can now see the role that full and honest reporting
of the data and all attempted analyses plays in assessing
the strength of an indication. Only if such reporting is
made can one usefully apply the above criteria. Full
reporting also dictates that at least the relevant subset
of the database (by experimental unit) be made public in
some form. Neyman (1967) and NRC (1973) have called
for the establishment of a central institution for the
collection and preservation of all relevant data from all
field weather modification experiments.
4. Epilogue
Field research experiments in hail suppression are
not a new phenomenon. Unfortunately, little informa-
tion of basic scientific value seems to have been
forthcoming from the past efforts. The important
question of whether or not hail can be effectively
suppressed, or its damage mitigated, is still un-
answered.
We believe that useful answers to this and other basic
questions can be found provided more emphasis is
placed on better planning and implementation of
experiments. This is not a new message for both the
Skyline Conference Report (NAS-NRC, 1959) and,
more recently, the Committee on Atmospheric Sci-
ences, National Research Council (1973) also have
expressed this view. These two volumes merit close
attention by all weather modification researchers.
This paper has presented a number of the basic
components of a proper field hail weather modification
experiment. Discussion of a number of the problems
that must be faced are presented and some solutions are
offered. We believe that the offered prescriptions
generally are applicable to all field weather modification
experiments. The resultant discussion indicates that
good research must be carefully and thoroughly
planned, well implemented, and fully analyzed. There
is no meaningful alternative.
Acknowledgments. We wish to thank Glenn Brier,
Stanley Changnon and Lewis Grant for helpful com-
ments and assistance.
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PART III: INSTRUMENTS

Some Aspects of Aircraft Instrumentation for Storm Research

DONALD L. VEAL, WILLIAM A. COOPER, GABOR v ALI AND JOHN D. MARWITZ
Department of Atmospheric Science. University of Wyoming, Laramie

ABSTRACT

Methods of airborne measurements of air velocity, aircraft parameters (location, velocity, attitude), state
parameters of the atmosphere (temperature, humidity, pressure) and microphysical parameters (cloud droplets,
liquid water content, raindrops and solid hydrometeors) are described and discussed, with particular attention to
the needs of thunderstorm research. Airborne data systems, communications systems and radar are also
discussed, in terms of operational requirements for hailstorm research.

1. Introduction research especially thunderstorm research that appear

Although measurements obtained using in-
strumented aircraft are fundamental to the study of
thunderstorms, a thorough and complete treatment of
aircraft selection, instrumentation technology, meas-
urement strategies, or aircraft data systems is neither
possible nor appropriate in a monograph on hailstorms;
such will not be attempted here. However, there is a
clear need for some aspects of the subject to be
discussed, since the measurements themselves are so
basic to the scientific understanding. There has been
and still is a tendency for a somewhat sharp division
between the people concerned with the scientific
purposes and those concerned with the practical
problems of measurements. In particular, scientists
sometimes do not appreciate the limitations of various
kinds of data obtained using an aircraft or the scale of
effort required to obtain measurements that are
trustworthy enough for the purpose at hand. Especially
with respect to instruments for measuring cloud physics
parameters, it can easily be forgotten that, by and large,
there are no accepted methods of absolute calibration.
In general the degree to which the measurements are
trustworthy is a matter of subjective judgement,
bolstered by intercomparison between independent
types of measurements and by how reasonable the
results seem. In almost no instance can results be
believed blindly or can completely objective limits of
uncertainty be set.
In this paper we attempt to accomplish two ends. The
first is to provide a very brief review of some of the most
important measurement techniques. It is hoped that this
paper will be adequate for those initially unfamiliar with
aircraft instrumentation who only wish a brief summary
view of the main principles and problems. We also
provide an entry into the literature for those who wish
to go on to investigate the subject in more detail, with
more completeness, or more rigor. The second purpose
is to highlight several aspects of the use of aircraft in
237
to be sometimes neglected, or not fully appreciated.
The selection of these items is a matter of opinion,
based upon the authors experience in operating aircraft
in coordination with other aircraft and with ground-
based instruments in programs of convective storm
research.
The emphasis here is on problems peculiar to aircraft,
problems produced by the fact that the sensors are
moving at high velocity through the air. Some of the
problems are direct results of the velocity, such as
dynamic heating of temperature sensors; some are
indirect, as for instance the fact that a certain spatial
resolution requires a concomitant response time of the
instrument. Other problems are in a sense peripheral
but can be crucially important to an overall program.
Examples are aircraft positioning, both for operational
control and for relating the data to other types of data,
and communication systems that are needed to enable
intelligent use of the whole aircraft system in situations
that require immediate scientific judgements.
The emphasis is also upon cloud physics meas-
urements, since these are the most closely connected
with hailstorm and hail suppression research.
Meteorological radar is not presently a practical tool for
distinguishing liquid precipitation from ice, or for
determining size spectra in any confidence or detail, yet
these measurements are critical to understanding the
kinds and amounts of precipitation that different
thunderstorms produce. In keeping with the absence of
a review paper on ice nucleation in the Monograph, that
topic is not treated here either. The many problems of
understanding ice nucleus measurements are not, at
present, peculiar in any way to aircraft operation.
Another topic not treated here is aircraft instrumenta-
tion for electrical measurements.
The following discussion proceeds from the basic
quantities (aircraft location, velocity and attitude; air
temperature, pressure and humidity) to a brief discus-
sion of wind measurements from aircraft, a more
238
extensive discussion of some cloud physics instru-
ments, and a treatment of some of the instrument
requirements for effective operation.
2. Aircraft location, velocity and attitude
Data on aircraft location, velocity and attitude are
fundamental to many of the atmospheric parameters to
be measured. One direct use is to combine all three
kinds of measurements to give air velocity along the
flight path, as discussed in Section 4. Aircraft location is
also needed to relate measurements to any other data.
In thunderstorm research, relating aircraft meas-
urements to the storm radar echo is often very
important, as is the combining of measurements from
several aircraft to improve the spatial and temporal
resolution of the data. Aircraft velocity is fundamental
to many other measurements, as is noted above in the
Introduction. Aircraft attitude may be needed for a
number of reasons, such as wind measurement, electric
field measurements, or quantitative airborne storm
photography or airborne storm radar studies.
a. Observer reports
The location of research aircraft as a function of time
has been determined by a variety of methods ranging
from notes on a knee pad to generation of tracks with
the aid of an inertial navigation system.
The most common means of aircraft position keeping
utilizes the transmissions from aircraft navigation
systems. For example, a VORTAC station transmits
radio signals which an aircraft equipped with proper
receivers can use to determine distance (DME) and
azimuth (VOR) from the ground station. This system
will give a position within about ± 2 km of the true
position, although the accuracy depends on distance
from the VORTAC and calibration of the receivers. If
two stations can be received, similar accuracy can be
obtained from two VOR azimuth measurements. Two
or more simultaneous DME measurements may reduce
the error of the position measurement to about ± 0.5
km, but the need for reception of more than one
VORT AC may be quite limiting since the enroute
navigation system was laid out to provide navigation
signals to a given area without much overlap except in
more congested areas near large metropolitan airports.
Recent developments in very low frequency (VLF)
navigation systems make possible reasonably inexpen-
sive aircraft position keeping over a much wider range
of altitudes and areas. A VLF system utilizes low
frequency radio signals transmitted from ground
stations located over the world and by comparing the
phase of the transmitted signals is able to compute the
position of the aircraft. A VLF navigation system has
been employed on the NCAR-RAP Electra aircraft.
PART III: INSTRUMENTS
By using the ground speed and drift angle from a
Doppler navigation system in conjunction with a
heading measurement, the position of the aircraft as a
function of time can be determined. Because errors in
the ground speed and drift angle measurements from
the Doppler navigation system are accumulated, this
technique is not suitable for long term position keeping
without frequent ground references. However, it is
very good for short term dead reckoning.
The inertial navigation system does not require the
reception of any signals from stations on the surface of
the earth. Position errors of the inertial navigation
systems accumulate typically at the rate of about 2 km
per hour of flight. If the inertial system is updated
periodically to a known reference it provides the most
reliable measurement of aircraft position.
b. Aircraft velocity
The velocity of the aircraft with respect to the air is
determined from the true airspeed and the heading. The
true airspeed (T AS) is derived from the indicated
airspeed (lAS), which is determined from the difference
between the pitot and static pressure at the aircraft
flight level. The measurement of static pressure is
discussed in Section 3. Pitot pressure is not particularly
difficult to measure especially for small angles of attack
and sideslip. For large angles of attack a pitot tube that
aligns itself with the relative airflow can be used to
minimize the errors. An additional source of error,
when operating in cloud or in precipitation, is caused by
ingestion of water or by icing. Heating the pitot probe
minimizes both of these problems.
The conservation of energy may be expressed as
CpdT + d ( ~2 ) = 0, (1)
where Tis temperature, V the true airspeed and CP
the specific heat of air at constant pressure (expressed
in units of mass- 1). Using the Poisson relation be-
tween temperature and pressure for adiabatic proc-
esses, it can be shown that
+ AP )R/Cp _ 1 ]}112 ,
_ {
V- 2CpT1 [( p (2)
p
where T1 is the free air temperature, P the total pres-
sure (static pressure), AP the difference between pitot
pressure and static pressure and R the gas constant of
air.
Indicated airspeed (lAS) may be defined as
Pa + AP )RICP ]}112 ,
lAS = { 2 CPTa [( - 1 (3)
Pa
where Ta and Pa are the temperature and pressure at
sea level of the ICAO standard atmosphere.
DONALD L. VEAL, WILLIAM A. COOPER, GABOR VALl AND JOHN D. MARWITZ
For cases in which t:.P is much less than P, the
indicated and true airspeeds are related by
V = lAS ( : 0
)
112
, (4)
where p 0 is the density of air at sea level of the standard
atmosphere, and p is the density of the air through
which the aircraft is flying.
Examination of the above relation indicates the
errors in true airspeed are dependent upon the errors in
static pressure, pitot-static difference and free air
temperature. Considerable care must be taken in
selecting, locating and calibrating the pressure and
temperature sensors.
c. Aircraft attitude
The attitude of the aircraft can be determined by
measuring the pitch, roll and yaw angles. Standard
instruments are available to provide some of these
measurements but if additional refinement is required
special units such as inertial platforms, stabilized gyros
or gust probes may be used.
3. Measurement of temperature, pressure and humidity
The measurement of temperature and air pressure
(static pressure) and humidity are fundamental to any
meteorological study using aircraft. Some special
problems are encountered in making these meas-
urements within clouds, and these will be emphasized
in the following brief treatment of these measurements.
a. Temperature
Various techniques have been used to measure air
temperature from aircraft. The most common is a
platinum resistance element mounted directly in the
airstream. The temperature indicated by such a device
is called the "total temperature," the temperature of
the sensor. This must be corrected for dynamic heating,
icing of the element, and other errors to give the air
temperature (also called "free air temperature"). Many
attempts have been made to develop a free air
temperature probe which can be deiced or is not
significantly influenced by accreting ice or water.
Owens (1955) and Cunningham et al. (1956) suggested a
vortex thermometer which removes the moisture from
the airstream prior to the temperature measurement. A
probe discussed by Rodi and Spyers-Duran (1972) does
not allow the element to be directly exposed to the
airstream; instead the airflow is reversed, the ice and
water particles within the airstream are separated, and
the temperature measuring element mounted in the
probe operates free from the effects of moisture.
The most serious problem encountered when operat-
239
ing a temperature probe at aircraft speeds is the
dynamic heating of the probe. In the simplest case the
dynamic heating on total temperature probes can range
from 1 to 50°C at airspeeds from 85 knots up to the speed
of sound. For most cloud physical research aircraft,
heating values on the order of 0 to soc are most
common. Heating corrections must be taken into
account for these probes, especially since several
important derived parameters (e.g. equivalent potential
temperature) are very sensitive to the absolute air
temperatures.
Since the sensor is mounted in a solid housing the
incoming air is usually slowed or very nearly stopped
before the sensor can realize the temperature meas-
urement. It is in this slowing process that compression
and heating take place. While it is generally assumed
that this process is adiabatic, many questions have been
raised that tend to complicate the treatment of the
problem. The fraction of total ram air heating,
dependent upon the degree to which the air has been
fully retarded, affects the amount of heating of the
sensor. In the simplest case, that of dry adiabatic
heating with the probe operating in a sub-saturated
atmosphere, the following assumptions are generally
made:
1) Complete flow stagnation.
2) No liquid water present.
3) Conduction and radiation terms insignificant.
From Eq. (1) it can be shown that
TAS 2
T0 = T1 + 2 Cp , (5)
where T 0 is the total temperature CCC), defined by the
equation, and represents what the sensor temperature
would be under the above assumption, T1 the free air
temperature CCC) and TAS the true airspeed (see
Section 2). The above equation is used for most aircraft
data reduction. However, while 100% ram heating in
dry air is assumed, reducing the flow to a complete stop
at the sensor would not be desirable since this condition
would eliminate the ventilation of the probe and
significantly reduce the time constant. In order to
prevent this and maintain an acceptably short time
constant, most probes used in cloud physics research
today are ventilated and therefore do not utilize full ram
heating. Thus, the equation now is
T. = T1 + 1.3189 x l0- 4 TAS 2a, (6)
if TAS is expressed in knots, where T. is the sensor
temperature and a the "recovery factor," defined by
the equation.
A theoretical determination of the recovery factor
would depend uniquely on the given probe design and a
very complex analysis of the boundary layer flow
240
associated with each probe. For example, the recovery
factor for cylindrical elements normal to the flow is
between 0.6 and 0.7, and for spherical elements it h'as
been observed to be about 0.75 (Jakob, 1957; Moffat,
1962). A simpler and more reliable technique for
determining the probe recovery factor is to conduct
speed run calibrations. By dividing Eq. (6) by Eq. (5) it
is apparent that a is equal to the quotient of the
difference between the sensor and free air temperatures
and the total and free air temperatures. The recovery
factor can be determined by plotting 1.3189 x tQ- 4
T AS 2 vs T. - T1; the inverse of the slope of this
line is the recovery factor. This procedure is usually
accomplished by conducting speed runs at several
speeds during an atmospheric condition in which the
temperature can be assumed to be homogeneous over a
short distance. The recovery factor can then be
determined by estimating its value, solving for the air
temperature and TAS, and then iterating to find the true
recovery factor. Once the recovery factor has been
established, reliable free air temperature can be
determined using Eq. (6). Recovery factors for most
total temperature sensors are on the order of0.9, while
recovery factors for most reverse flow temperature
sensors range between 0.5 and 0. 7. Other errors such as
self-heating of the element by the sensing current, heat
conduction through the element supports, and changing
the resistance of the element as a result of strain caused
by the airstream are usually small and are discussed by
Lenschow (1971a).
When a temperature sensor is flown through a cloud,
the heating process cannot be assumed to remain dry
adiabatic. However, Telford and Warner (1962) have
shown that the presence of liquid water does not
significantly alter the heating error for small tempera-
ture sensing elements unless the liquid elements are of
the "drizzle drop" size or the sensor is in severe
downdrafts.
Final calibration of any temperature probe installed
on an aircraft involves not only the determination of the
recovery factor, but also determination of the de offset
in the data system if one exists. Flying by a tower at
different temperatures and airspeeds or immersing the
probe in an ice bath while on the ground will establish
the de offset. Accuracies of most aircraft temperature
sensors are on the order of± 0.5°C.
The response time of free air temperature probes is
dependent upon the design of the specific system and
will range from very small fractions of a second for hot
wire systems to about one second for most total
temperature probes. It is important for the investigator
to determine the overall response of the temperature
probe-aircraft data system complex prior to using the
data for precise calculations. Lee (1960) gives a
PART III: INSTRUMENTS
description of the appropriate sampling and response
theory.
b. Humidity
Early airborne measurements of humidity utilized a
pair of simple wet and dry bulb mercury thermometers
mounted outside or through the skin of the aircraft. For
slow aircraft, or when response time is not a problem,
the procedure is moderately satisfactory. The wetted
wick must be used in the psychrometric equation. In the
1940's mercury thermometers mounted in special
housings were the standard humidity instruments for
the United States (Keily, 1945). An alternate approach
to this same technique is to attach a wetted wick to a
platinum resistance wire or a thermocouple and expose
it to the air either directly or mounted in some kind of
housing. For example, copper constantan ther-
mocouples were mounted in a reverse flow housing and
used to determine the wet bulb depression, with a
dynamic heating correction applied by Kelley and
Breon (1967). This system must also be corrected for
dynamic heating with the appropriate wick pressure
used in the psychrometric equation. If the liquid water
is not separated from the air before reading the sensor
the dry bulb measurement has no significance.
Mullen and Wolber (1964) describe a dew point/frost
point hygrometer which measures the dew point/frost
point directly using the principle of sensing the
presence of dew or frost on a thermoelectrically cooled
surface. The Cambridge Systems dew point hygrometer
is probably the most widely used, reliable instrument at
this time. The response time of this instrument is about
one second; however, it may be much longer at low
ambient dew points which tax the cooling capacity of
the instrument. An inlet which deflects the rain and
cloud droplets from the air sample has been developed
by the Naval Research Laboratory (Hess, 1974). If the
cooled surface becomes dirty or if hygroscopic material
collects on the surface the control point must be
adjusted to yield the proper dew point. Periodic
cleaning of the surface usually prevents this problem.
Deterioration or aging of the thermoelectric coolers will
also require periodic adjusting of the current. Dye
(1973) has pointed out an additional source of error
caused by a non-uniform ice layer on the element. He
suggests the mirror be buffed with a fine jewelers rouge
and not be cleaned too thoroughly, and that the bridge
be adjusted to provide a thicker coat of ice.
In order to improve the response characteristics of
the system, liquid nitrogen has been used to increase
the thermoelectric junction capacity. Comparisons of
dew point values obtained from different aircraft have
been made by Duchon (1972, 1973). A fast response,
DONALD L. VEAL, WILLIAM A. COOPER, GABOR VALl AND JOHN D. MARWITZ
continuous cryogenic hygrometer has been developed
by E.G.&G., Environmental Equipment Division, and
installed on the NCAR Sabreliner aircraft. The unit has
the capability of responding to a dew point change as
high as 23°C s- 1 • It can measure dew/frost points of air
samples from -100 to +30°C.
Ruskin (1967) and Buck (1973) describe a humidity
instrument that measures the absorption cross-section
of water vapor in the Lyman-alpha region. This
instrument has a response time on the order of a few
milliseconds. The Lyman-alpha hygrometer responds
to absolute humidity (g m- 3 ) which can be converted to
other humidity units if the pressure and temperature are
known. It has problems of drift of the source, detector
performance, and window deterioration under moist
conditions, all of which inhibit the calibration stability.
If these problems can be overcome the system should
be ideal for airborne use. A laboratory model of the
Lyman-alpha system has been constructed by Martini
et al. (1973).
With an independent measure of pressure and
temperature, humidity can also be calculated from the
microwave refractive index. A microwave resonance
cavity flushed with ambient air, separated from water
drops, can be used to measure this. The response time
of this technique is a function of the flushing time and
therefore is comparable to the Lyman-alpha instru-
ments, a few milliseconds. An airborne refractometer
has been operated by the Research Aviation Facility at
NCAR and is described by Thompson (1972). Similar
systems have been operated by the Air Force Cam-
bridge Research Laboratories, the National Bureau of
Standards and others.
Humidity measurement within clouds has yet to be
shown to be more accurate than simply assuming the
appropriate equilibrium with the condensed phase.
Particularly in strong updrafts or downdrafts, however,
this assumption is not correct, and it would be
interesting and valuable to be able to measure humidity
accurately enough, and at a small enough scale, to test
the theories. Such precision and accuracy may yet be
far in the future.
c. Pressure
In principle the simplest state parameter to measure
with an airborne platform is pressure. The most
important problem to overcome is determining the
proper location of the static pressure source on the
aircraft-a location where the free air pressure exists
on the surface of the aircraft. Pitot-static probes have
been designed in which the static ports are located
symmetrically about the sideslip or yaw axis, in an
attempt to solve this problem. When a pitot-static probe
241
is used, wind tunnel experiments can be conducted and
empirical corrections established as a function of the
angles of attack and sideslip. Another approach is to
locate the static pressure source on the empennage
of the aircraft to minimize the reduction in static
pressure resulting from increasing angles of attack
and sideslip.
However, for accurate measurements the static
pressure defect or error must be evaluated experimen-
tally. This can be accomplished by installing an
accurate pressure device in the aircraft and flying by a
tower at a known pressure at different airspeeds. The
static source error as a function of airspeed is thereby
determined. Corrections ranging from zero up to ten
millibars may be necessary depending upon the aircraft
and static source location. Once the static source errors
are resolved the determination of flight level pressure
depends only upon the aircraft pressure sensor.
Pressure sensors are currently available which are
stable over a wide range of environmental conditions,
operate on various principles, and yield resolutions of
parts of millibars. It is a straightforward process to
convert the pressure values to pressure altitude using
the ICAO standard atmosphere or an alternate
pressure-height relationship.
4. Measurement of air motion
The measurement of air motion from aircraft will only
be outlined here, with references to more extensive
treatments. All of the measurement techniques could be
classified with regard to the scales of motion that are
resolved, the accuracy, and whether the measured
motion is horizontal or vertical. In thunderstorm
research by aircraft, the vertical velocity meas-
urements are especially important, and will be given
more than usual emphasis here.
a. Vertical velocities
The most elementary technique for observing the
large-scale vertical air motion is to assume the aircraft is
in equilibrium with the vertical motion of the air and
simply monitor the vertical movement of the aircraft
with a vertical speed indicator or variometer. This
approach utilizes the aircraft as the primary sensor and
requires the pilot to fly the aircraft without climbing or
descending with respect to the air, thus allowing the
aircraft to ride up and down with the vertical air motion
field. To do this a constant airspeed and power setting
must be maintained. This type of flying is quite different
from the typical mode of operation for aircraft which
usually requires maintaining an assigned altitude and
adjusting the power to keep the airspeed within
preselected limits. Updrafts can be measured more
242
reliably if the vertical motion of the aircraft, at
operational gross weight, is calibrated at various
airspeeds and power settings in a quiescent atmos-
phere. The calibration results in a family of curves
showing the vertical motion of the aircraft as a function
of indicated airspeed at various power settings and
allows a better determination of the vertical air motion
than the vertical speed of the aircraft alone.
The response time of an aircraft to a change in the
vertical motion of the air is given by the equations of
motion of the aircraft, given in standard texts (e.g.
Etkin, 1959). Lenschow (1976) has shown, using
simplified airplane equations of motion, that a North
American T-28 and a Beechcraft Queen Air have
sufficiently fast response to enable the estimation of
thunderstorm updraft velocities so that a "top hat"
profile can be distinguished from a "smooth" profile.
The advantages of this technique are simplicity, low
cost and smoothing of the vertical motion data. The
disadvantage is the lack of accuracy in some cir-
cumstances which results from the difficulty in main-
taining a proper aircraft attitude or airspeed. Auer and
Sand (1966), Bookeret al. (1967), Marwitz (1972), Kyle
et al. (1976) and others have used this technique
extensively.
More detail in the vertical motion field can be
obtained when sensors are installed on the aircraft to
quantify the motion of the aircraft with respect to the
earth and that of the air with respect to the aircraft. The
velocity of the air with respect to the aircraft is usually
accomplished by installing sensors on a boom in front of
the aircraft and the velocity of the aircraft with respect
to earth is typically determined from accelerometers or
radar altimeter measurements. Inertial navigation
systems (INS) have been used extensively to provide
the necessary reference to local vertical, enabling
computation of the vertical acceleration of the aircraft,
which can then be integrated to determine the vertical
velocity of the aircraft with respect to the earth. Axford
(1968) and Lenschow (1971a) have described the
necessary velocity relationships and have evaluated the
errors in each component. Problems associated with
this technique relate to the angular accuracies of the
platform and the angular drift rate of the gyros; the
principal advantage is a continuous, accurate determi-
nation of the attitude and acceleration of the aircraft.
A less expensive instrument for determining vertical
air velocity has been constructed at the Commonwealth
Scientific and Industrial Research Organization, Aus-
tralia (Warner and Cottis, 1976). This system uses a
gravity-erected gyro; linked to the gyro are servo-
mechanisms which control the orientation of the stable
platform about its pitch and roll axis so that it stays
horizontal. The platform is located near the aircraft
center of gravity. Installed on the platform is an
PART III: INSTRUMENTS
accelerometer which gives the vertical acceleration of
the aircraft. The vertical velocity is then determined
from computations involving the weight of the aircraft,
its vertical acceleration, airspeed and pitch attitude.
An alternative to an inertial navigation system is what
is referred to as a "Strapdown Inertial System." The
strapdown system measures the aircraft state by using
gyros and accelerometers attached to the aircraft rather
than to a horizontally stabilized platform as in the case
of an INS. The problems with a strapdown system are
that the long term stability deteriorates and the system
has difficulty differentiating centrifugal force in sharp
turns from gravitational acceleration, restricting its use
to straight and level flight with a reliable vertical motion
reference before and after each data run. In order to
overcome this problem, geometric compensation from
the pitch and roll outputs of a vertical gyro have been
used to correct the integrated vertical accelerometers
(cf. Telford and Warner, 1962; Sinclair, 1969).
b. Horizontal velocities
The determination of horizontal air motion from an
airborne platform requires knowledge of the track,
heading, groundspeed and true airspeed of the aircraft.
Doppler navigation systems measure the groundspeed
and drift angle; when these are combined with the
aircraft heading and true airspeed the horizontal wind
can be determined. Without a yaw vane, the aircraft
itself is the sensor, and this limits the horizontal
resolution of the wind field to the product of the aircraft
response time and the horizontal speed. Since the
Doppler system measures drift angle (the angle
between the true course or ground track and the true
heading of the aircraft), errors in the compass heading
affect only the wind direction and not the magnitude. A
yaw vane measures the direction of the air motion
relative to the aircraft. If such a device is employed, the
resolution of the horizontal wind field is determined by
the response of the Doppler system which is a few
seconds or typically a few hundred meters. Foote and
Fankhauser (1973) have shown that the response time
of a Beechcraft Queen Air without a yaw vane, in
measuring winds with a Doppler system, is 30 to 50 s
and the horizontal wind has an approximate 1 m s- 1
vector error. Telford and Wagner (1974) and Telford et
al. (1977) have used an inertial navigation platform for
determining the horizontal wind field around cumulus
clouds. They state that their system provides meas-
urements whose short term accuracy in the horizontal
approaches 0.3 m s- 1 • They also state that this accuracy
applies when the aircraft is rapidly maneuvered in turns
up to 45° bank. These data can be considered an upper
bound for accuracy for horizontal winds utilizing an
INS.
DONALD L. VEAL, WILLIAM A. COOPER, GABOR VALl AND JOHN D. MARWITZ
Several hybrid systems are now being tested. A
hybrid system is one in which an independent
measurement ofthe position of the aircraft is made and
is used to update the long term drift inherent in
state-or-the-art inertial navigation systems. Types of
independent position measurements include pressure
altitude, DMEIVOR, multiple DME, OMEGA, VLF
and even multiple inertial navigation systems on the
same aircraft.
5. Measurement of cloud physics parameters
This field of instrumentation, along with the instru-
ments for measuring vertical velocity, is probably most
important in the branch of thunderstorm research that
deals with hail formation and suppression. The nature
of the environments in which hailstones grow deter-
mines the possibilities for suppression and greatly
influences eventual hail size. Important questions like
the degree of entrainment in the thunderstorm updraft
cores, and whether competition between hailstones for
the liquid water limits hail size in unseeded storms, will
only be answered by direct probing of the storms.
This section concentrates upon aircraft instruments
to measure cloud droplet sizes and concentration,
liquid water content, raindrop sizes and concentration,
and ice particle sizes and concentration. In keeping
with the emphases in the rest of this monograph,
discussion of instruments for measuring cloud conden-
sation nuclei, ice nuclei, and electrical parameters are
omitted. Also omitted are discussions of quantitative
airborne radar. The use of airborne radar for high
resolution reflectivity mapping and high resolution
Doppler studies of air motion within clouds is presently
in a developmental stage. While such measurements
will tend to require large aircraft as platforms, and will
be expensive, they hold very great promise for
thunderstorm research in the future.
A pervading problem concerning instruments to
measure ice and water particles in clouds is the wide
range of sizes and concentrations. Sizes range from
about w- 6 to w-! m diameter (the smallest cloud
droplets to the largest hailstones), with concomitant
concentrations of 10-9 to to-a or so per cubic meter of
air. Especially in the study of hail, one is continually
concerned with the tail (the few particles at the large
end) of the size spectrum. While sampling volume per
unit time is thus critical for some purposes, the
following review will serve more as a general discussion
of methods and available techniques. It is not a
complete guide for selection of appropriate instru-
ments. The reader needing to make such decisions must
consult the references.
Another fact of life in using any of the cloud physics
instruments (excepting the direct imaging devices, such
243
as cameras and the PMS 2D probe) is that absolute
calibration normally is not possible. Redundancy of
measurement is one of the commonly used ways of
gaining (or losing) trust in the measurements.
a. Cloud droplet sizes and concentrations
1) IMPACTION SAMPLING
Because of the rapid evaporation of small water
droplets, direct examination of unprotected water
droplets in an aircraft is impractical. Preservation of
cloud droplets in oil has been found possible by Diem
(1942) and has been applied extensively, coupled with
immediate photomicrography of the droplets.
Weickmann and aufm Kampe (1953) observed the rate
of dissolution of cloud droplets in oil to be about 1 JLm in
diameter per second for droplets of 4 JLm and larger,
independent of diameter. Mazur (1943) pre-saturated
the oil with water, and thereby virtually eliminated the
decrease in droplet size.
More convenient than direct photography of cloud
droplets is their replication. Based on the technique
developed by May (1950), impaction of cloud droplets
onto a thick layer of magnesium oxide deposit has seen
extensive use for cloud sampling. Droplets impinging in
the MgO layer leave a "hole" or crater which was
shown by a laboratory calibration to be about 15%
larger than the original droplet diameter. Size distribu-
tion of the droplets can conveniently be obtained by
measuring the holes under a microscope or by
photographic evaluation. This was the technique
originally used in the instrument of Squires and
Gillespie ( 1952), but according to Squires ( 1958) reliable
calibration for the magnesium oxide could not be
obtained; a layer of carbon soot was found to produce
more consistent results. The ratio of crater to droplet
sizes was found to be a function of impaction speed and
of droplet size; the ratio varied roughly from 2 to 4 and
became almost independent of drop size for droplets
greater than 20 JLm and about 15% for 5 JLm droplets.
Another method of replication is the use of a gelatin
layer. Liddell and Wooten (1957) proposed this
technique and Jiusto (1965) perfected it for aircraft
measurements. Impinging droplets dissolve the gelatin
and leave a clear, circular spot whose diameter was
reported by Jiusto to bear a constant ratio of about 2 to
the true droplet diameter for a wide range of droplet
sizes and air velocities.
Replication with Formvar has also been used for
cloud droplets. MacCready and Todd (1964) presented
results for a calibration of the replica sizes versus true
droplet sizes. Formvar has the advantage of better
permanency over the other replicating materials.
However, the possibility is greater for artifacts to
occur.
244
A large variety of devices has been used for
impaction sampling of cloud droplets. The require-
ments are for continuous or fairly frequent sampling,
exposure to an undisturbed airstream, determination of
collection efficiencies, and good control of exposure
times. While it is quite easy to obtain sufficient sample
sizes for the modes of the droplet distributions, the
problem of obtaining adequate sample from the tails of
the distribution is always present. This is especially
bothersome at the large sizes where the decrease in
concentration is usually quite gradual. At small sizes
the difficulty is compounded by the decrease in
collection efficiency. Collection efficiencies are usually
determined by calculations; the checks that have been
made have revealed no serious problems.
Since shattering of droplets on impact or water
shedding from various parts of the apparatus would
invalidate the measurements the apparatus must be
designed to minimize these effects. Break-up of
droplets on impact is usually not considered to be a
problem for droplets ofless than 100 11-m diameter and
for aircraft speeds of less than 100 m sec- 1 • The
question does need further attention, however, espe-
cially for greater aircraft speeds.
In practically all devices droplets are impacted onto a
thin strip (slide or tape) moved across the airstream at
some known velocity. The width of the strips varies
from a few millimeters to a few centimeters, the
narrower ones generally being perferred. The simplest
technique is to hold a slide in the airstream; because of
the need for exposure of fractions of a second, this is
difficult to do reliably. Some mechanical arrangement is
therefore usually employed. The instrument of Squires
and Gillespie (1952) used the oscillation of a spring. to
rapidly expose and withdraw the sampling rods. Ten
sampling rods were arranged in a magazine and all ten
could be successively fired in less than 30 sec. Brown
and Willett ( 1955) described a spring-activated device in
which three slides could be fired across an opening to
the airstream in rapid succession. Another device of
similar principle was described by Clague (1965); this
unit had a holder for 18 slides and the slides traveled out
to the airstream and back along a race track. This
instrument had been used quite extensively in Australia
and in Israel with apparently good results. A further
version of this type of instrument is in use at the
University of Wyoming. Individual slides are fired
across an aperture using a C02 pistol, and the transit of
the slide across the aperture is electronically timed.
This provides more reliable exposure times than the
spring operated devices in which one has to rely upon
reproducibility. However, in the laboratory, repro-
ducibility is reported to be about 5% for the spring
devices. Jiusto (1965) used a modified automatic slide
projector for the rapid sequencing of slides. This
PART III: INSTRUMENTS
arrangement allows for convenient remote control, but
the need for short and reliable exposure times puts a
heavy demand upon the mechanism.
Continuous replicators have been described by
MacCready and Todd (1964), Averitt and Ruskin
(1967), Spyers-Duran and Braham (1967), Hanaway et
al. (1972) and Lavoie et al. (1970). All but the last one of
these used the Formvar replication technique; the last
mentioned unit used gelatin replication. All of these
devices used a film base which was transported from a
storage reel to the exposure point, to a curing
compartment and to a take-up reel. While the principle
of operation is simple, it has been found to be no simple
task to obtain reliable operation in aircraft use.
Nonetheless, a great deal of useful data has been
gathered with these instruments.
2) OPTICAL DEVICES
There are three types of optical spectrometers in use
for determination of the cloud droplet spectrum: the
Blau nephelometer (Blau et al., 1970), the Particle
Measuring Systems axially scattering spectrometer
probe (ASSP), and the Soviet units described by
Laktionov et al. (1972). All three instruments count
individual cloud droplets by detecting pulses of
scattered light, and all achieve size discrimination by
pulse height analysis. The instruments differ in the way
in which the sample volume is defined and in the light
scattering region used.
The Blau nephelometer defines the sample volume by
the overlap between a laser light beam and a detector
viewing region. Droplets at the edges of the illuminated
region produce smaller amplitude pulses than the same
droplets would produce in the center of the sample
volume, and therefore the observed distribution must
be corrected for this effect. The version of this
instrument described by Ryan et al. (1972) determines
cloud droplet concentration in the region from 4 to 85
11-m diameter, in twelve size intervals. The scattering
angle utilized in this instrument is about 45°, and the
sample volume is located approximately 15 em from the
side of the aircraft. An exterior cowl beyond the sample
region is used to reflect the laser beam back toward the
airplane and to cut down background light. Data
recording in the version reported by Ryan et al. (1972)
was accomplished by photographing the display from
the pulse height analyzer.
The axially scattering spectrometer probe (ASSP)
detects small angle forward scattering from cloud
droplets. The detailed operating principles and the
characteristics of slightly different versions of this
instrument have been described by Knollenberg (1976).
A laser is used to illuminate a volume through which
cloud droplets pass, and the undeflected laser beam is
DONALD L. VEAL, WILLIAM A. COOPER, GABOR VALl AND JOHN D. MARWITZ
then intercepted by a beam stop. Droplets passing
through the beam scatter light aroung the beam stop,
into a collecting lens and onto a photomultiplier tube.
Pulse-height analysis is used to determine the droplet
size, in 15 size ranges covering either 1-15, 2-30, or
3-45 ILm diameter. The spectrum is recorded on
magnetic tape once per second, and is also available in
the aircraft on either digital readouts or as a scope-
displayed histogram.
The sampling region in the ASSP is restricted to
about -().4 em in the center of a 3 em aperture. The
optical depth of field is greater than this, and the
reduction is accomplished electronically by sensing if
the image of the droplet is in focus. The scattered light is
split, half of which is focused onto a detector whose
center is masked; the other half is sensed by an
unmasked detector. If the masked detector sees more
than a fixed fraction (typically 50%) of the signal seen by
the unmasked detector, the droplet is considered out of
focus and rejected. This results in a well-defined depth
of field.
A correction is still required for the variation in laser
intensity in different parts of the beam, but this
correction is usually minor.
The Soviet cloud droplet spectrometer (Laktionov,
1972) detects 90° scattering from cloud droplets. Three
instruments with overlapping ranges cover the droplet
sizes from 0.2 to 75 ILm diameter.
All these instruments obtain high spatial resolution of
the droplet spectrum. The sample volume is kept small
enough so that there is only a small probability of having
two cloud droplets in the light beam at one time, yet
these instruments are able to sample 1 cm3 in a flight
path of only 1-2 m. A high-resolution determination of
the main part of the cloud droplet spectrum is easily
obtained each second. The sample volume is not as
comfortable for determination of the tails of the
spectrum; for example, to detect concentrations of 10
per liter, important at the larger sizes, a flight path on
the order of a kilometer is required.
3) ELECTROSTATIC DISDROMETER
In the electrostatic disdrometer (Keily and Millen,
1960; Abbott et al. 1972), cloud droplets are drawn
through a small (typically 250 ~J.m) orifice at high speed.
The droplets break up while passing through this
orifice, and the resulting droplets are then impacted
onto an electrode maintained at high potential relative
to the housing. The result is a change in the electrode
potential, proportional to the droplet size. The pulses
are sized in ten size channels, and the accumulated
spectrum is recorded twice per second. The instrument
is sensitive to the size range from 4-30 ~J.m, and samples
1 cm3 in about 20 m of flight path.
245
4) DISCUSSION OF CLOUD DROPLET MEASURING
DEVICES
The main uses of the preceding set of instruments are
the determination of the dominant features of the cloud
droplet spectrum (total concentration, shape of the
spectrum and liquid water content) and the determina-
tion of the tails of the spectrum, particularly the
concentrations of droplets at the larger sizes. For the
first goal, important features of the instruments are ease
of data analysis and good spatial resolution. All of the
optical devices and the electrostatic disdrometer meet
these goals well. They are suited to continuous
monitoring of the droplet distribution, and they
accumulate data in a readily analyzed form. The sample
obtained by the optical probes is generally an order of
magnitude greater than that of the disdrometer for the
same flight path, but both are adequate for the main part
of the cloud droplet distribution. Both techniques are
capable of good resolution, using typically 2 ILm bins,
and both have essentially unit collection efficiency
(provided they are properly placed on the airplane).
Both are far superior to impaction sampling in ease of
data and ability to obtain extensive and continuous
samples.
The optical probes and the electrostatic disdrometer
are more marginally suited for the task of determining
the tails of the droplet distribution. Flight paths of a
kilometer or more are required to measure concentra-
tions of a few per liter. These probes can still ascertain
the existence of droplets greater than 25 ~J.m in
concentrations of 1 cm-3 • At larger sizes and smaller
concentrations, they are supplemented by other
techniques to be discussed in the section on raindrops,
and so they are adequate for the required tasks at this
time.
The question of the accuracy and reliability of all of
these probes is a serious one. Calibration is difficult in a
simulated cloud environment, and evidence is needed
to establish that the probes indeed work as claimed.
Some intercomparisons of these instruments with other
techniques have been made, but more are needed. Ryan
eta/. (1972) performed limited comparisons of the total
liquid water content measured by their instrument and
by a microwave radiometer, finding reasonable agree-
ment. Abbott et al. (1972) presented comparisons
between the droplet spectra obtained by the electro-
static disdrometer and those obtained from soot-coated
slides, and also compared the total liquid water content
by the disdrometer with that of a Johnson-Williams
sensor (next section). They obtained reasonable
agreement between slides and disdrometer, both in
total liquid water content and in spectra, but the
Johnson-Williams liquid water value was consistently
above those from the disdrometer and from the slides.
246
They added that other times were seen when the
agreement was poor. More recently, Dye (1976) has
repeated these comparisons between disdrometer and
slides, and has reported that the disdrometer biases the
spectrum toward the smaller sizes and thereby lowers
the measured liquid water content.
Similar comparisons, under airborne conditions,
have not been made with the optical spectrometer,
except for comparisons of similar Particle Measuring
Systems ASSP's (Davey, 1975) which showed them to
be consistent. Realistic calibrations of these instru-
ments and intercomparisons with other instruments are
needed. If the performance of the optical spectrometers
and the electrostatic disdrometer can be verified, they
provide adequate tools for present needs in this area.
b. Liquid water content
In addition to the preceding spectrometers, there are
a number of other instruments capable of measuring the
total water content of clouds or of precipitation. The
hot-wire total liquid water indicator, the total water
evaporators of Ruskin (1967) and Kyle (1975), and an
optical flow meter (Brown, 1973) will be discussed.
Other techniques which have been used include a
transmissometer (aufm Kampe and Weickmann, 1952),
a microwave radiometer, a paper tape (Warner and
Newnham, 1952) and a synthetic filament (Sasyo,
1968).
The most common version of the liquid water
indicator is the Johnson-Williams ( J-W) hot-wire
instrument. Two calibrated resistance wires are con-
nected as part of a balanced bridge and heated by
electrical current. One wire is mounted parallel to the
airstream and is minimally affected by the cloud
droplets; the other wire is mounted perpendicular to the
airstream and intercepts the droplets. As the liquid
water strikes the wire, the droplets are evaporated, and
the resulting cooling of the wire changes its resistance
and produces a signal in the bridge. While the parallel
wire helps to correct the bridge for variations in
temperature and pressure, an additional adjustment or
calibration for variations in true airspeed is necessary.
The bridge imbalance is calibrated in terms of cloud
liquid water content.
Despite the convenience of this unit, there have been
some difficulties associated with its use. It has only
limited response to drop size above 30 JLm (Knollen-
berg, 1972), it is subject to drift, calibration is difficult,
and power consumption is high. An improved unit, with
faster response time and greater stability, has been
developed by Merceret and Schricker (1975). It is
claimed that this instrument should have better
response to large droplets, but this has not been
demonstrated.
The evaporator of Ruskin (1967) uses a heating
PART III: INSTRUMENTS
element and screen to evaporate all incoming liquid or
ice hydrometers. After evaporation, the water vapor
content of the resulting airstream is measured by a
Lyman-alpha sensor. In addition to measuring total
liquid water content, precipitation elements larger than
about 300 p.,m can be detected as individual pulses in the
output. The Lyman-alpha detector provides a very fast
response measurement of water vapor density which
may be converted to liquid water content if the
temperature and pressure at the detection point are
known. The measurement must also be corrected for
the original water vapor content of the air. Kyle and
Sand (1973) used a version for which the output
temperature is kept constant, and the liquid water
content is determined from the power required to
evaporate the water and maintain the fixed outlet
temperature. Another version has been described by
Kyle (1975). Screens are used to break up the water
drops, and a two-stage heater is used to make operation
possible in very high liquid water conditions (up to 40 g
m- 3 ). The heater power is controlled to maintain the
outlet temperature constant, and a Lyman-alpha
detector measures the resulting water vapor density at
the outlet. The intake diameter is 0.8 em, so one liter is
sampled each 20 m of flight path. This is marginally
adequate when the liquid water content is dominated by
large drops in low concentrations and is significantly
greater than the sampling volume of the usual
Johnson-Williams probe.
An advantage of the evaporator is its sensitivity to
large precipitation elements. In conjunction with a J-W
probe, it has been used to determine the part of the
liquid water content contributed by large drops, and the
spikes in its output even allow its use as a large particle
spectrometer (Ruskin, 1967).
Another instrument for the measurement of liquid
water content is the flowmeter of Brown (1973), in
which a rotating bowl is used to collect cloud water.
This water is forced through a small exit hole, and as the
bowl rotates a sheet of water is thrown over a sensing
region. A photodiode senses the water spray as it
passes, and the width of the spray is measured and
calibrated in terms of liquid water content. Present
drawbacks are the low collection efficiency for small
cloud droplets and the inability to operate in a
supercooled cloud.
1) DISCUSSION OF LIQUID WATER CONTENT
INDICATORS
The Johnson-Williams instrument, without support-
ing measurements from other instruments, may yield
misleading information because of its poor detection
efficiency for large drops and its small sample volume;
calibration and stability are difficult to maintain. The
total water evaporators are potentially much better, in
terms of sample volume, response time and sensitivity
DONALD L. VEAL, WILLIAM A. COOPER, GABOR VALl AND JOHN D. MARWITZ
to all forms of water; as with other Lyman-alpha
sensors, window deterioration and source and detector
drift are potential problems. An alternative to these
instruments is to integrate the spectra from a set of
spectrometers covering all drop sizes to obtain the
liquid water content.
c. Raindrop sizes and concentrations
Techniques to be discussed for the counting and
sizing of the larger size drops include foil impaction,
optical sizing, and momentum sensing.
1) FOIL IMPACTION
Both single-shot and continuous foil impactors are
used to measure rain drop spectra. In this technique, a
thin aluminum or lead foil is backed by a screen or
mesh, and exposed to the airstream. Drops striking the
foil leave impressions whose sizes may be correlated
with the drop sizes (Bigg, 1956; Brown, 1958; Schecter
and Russ, 1970). The lower limit to the detectable range
is generally about 300 p.m diameter (Knightet a/., 1977);
at sizes of about 750 p.m it is sometimes possible to
distinguish water from ice on the basis of the nature of
the impressions made. Analysis is somewhat labori-
ous, and errors may arise from splashing oflarge drops.
The sample volume is adequate; approximately one
liter is sampled per meter of flight.
2) OPTICAL SPECTROMETERS
Optical spectrometers have the advantage that the
sample is not disturbed, and that the information is
available without laborious analysis. Knollenberg
(1970) has developed a spectrometer utilizing a linear
photodetector array. In this spectrometer, a collimated
light beam illuminates a sample region through which
drops pass, and this region is imaged onto a photodetec-
tor array. Drops in the sample region cause shadows to
be cast onto the array, so that the shadows move in a
direction perpendicular to the array. The drop size is
determined from the maximum number of elements
shadowed during its passage, so that both number and
size of drops are obtained. The Particle Measuring
Systems (PMS) precipitation probe is a commercially
available version of this instrument, in which a
histogram of the drop spectrum is displayed in the
airplane and recorded on magnetic tape. A subsequent
development is the use of the optical array to obtain
two-dimensional images of the particles, discussed
below.
Typical characteristics for the precipitation probe are
a size range of 300-4500 p.m (adjustable simply by
changing the magnification), with size sorting in 15 signal corresponding to the impaction of individual
intervals, and a sample volume of 1. 7liters per meter of raindrops, have been successfully used on the ground
flight path. An early version of this instrument, for the measurement of raindrop size distributions (Joss
247
covering the range from 10-300 p.m, was compared
with other liquid water content measurement devices
by Knollenberg (1972); generally, the agreement was
acceptable between this instrument and a J-W instru-
ment, for cases where the cloud drops were smaller
than 30 p.m. When larger drops were present, the
spectrometer obtained higher liquid water content; this
was attributed to the failure of the J-W to sense the
larger drops. In precipitation, comparison was also
made to a lead foil impactor, from which a calibration of
the foil impactor was obtained in good agreement with
the earlier calibration (at smaller sizes) by Brown
(1958).
Another optical spectrometer has been described by
Borovikov ( 1968). In this instrument the sample volume
is illuminated by a long, narrow slit oflight perpendicu-
lar to the airstream; the slit is about 100 p.m wide in the
direction of the airstream. The illuminated line in the
sample volume is then focused onto a photomultiplier.
When a particle passes through the beam, the
photomultiplier is shadowed, and the maximum
amplitude of the resulting pulse depends on the
maximum dimension of the particle in the direction of
the line. The sample volume is about one liter per meter
of flight, and drops are sized in eight intervals from 150
p.m to greater than 1.6 mm diameter.
Both this instrument and the PMS precipitation probe
are sensitive to, and do not discriminate against, ice
particles. Where it is necessary to make this distinction,
these instruments are not suitable. Another problem in
both instruments is that if the image of a particle
overlaps the end of the sensitive region the particle will
be assigned too small a size. In the PMS instrument, this
problem is handled by vetoing an event when the end
elements are shadowed; only hydrometeors completely
within the array are accepted. This effectively reduces
the sample volume by greater amounts for the larger
particles, where the maximum sample volume would be
most desirable. The two-dimensional probe, to be
described later, provides a way to handle this problem
effectively, so that the sample volume actually in-
creases with increasing size.
Another raindrop disdrometer, with a very large
sample volume, is the one used by R. Cunningham of
AFCRL. In this instrument a photomultiplier views a
sample region at 90° and counts and sizes raindrops
larger than about 0.5 mm. The sample rate of this
instrument is very large, about 10 liters per meter of
flight path.
3) MOMENTUM SENSORS
Momentum sensors, which produce an electrical
248
and Waldvogel, 1967). Utilization ofthe same principle
for aircraft has been attempted by Sutherland and
Booker (1970). The airborne instrument uses a
piezoelectric (quartz) crystal and electronic pulse
processing and sorting. The size range covered by the
instrument is given as 0.5 to 4.5 mm. This instrument
has been used fairly extensively but the results have not
yet reached the open literature.
d. Ice particle sizes and concentrations
The detection of ice crystals in clouds has been and
remains a particularly difficult but important task for
cloud physics instrumentation. Ideally, one would like
positive discrimination between ice and liquid water,
and sensitivity to a wide range of sizes. The most
common instruments fall into two classes, those which
collect the ice particles (such as foil impactors or
Formvar replicators) and those which detect the ice
particles by optical means. In the first category, the foil
impactor has already been discussed, and the various
other replicators and collectors will be described. In the
second category fall the MEE and the University of
Washington (Turner and Radke, 1973) counters, the
holocamera and the Cannon camera, and the PMS
two-dimensional spectrometer.
1) OPTICAL ICE CRYSTAL COUNTERS
Both the MEE and the University of Washington
counters use the ability of an ice crystal to rotate the
plane of polarization of polarized light as the basis for
their operation. Such a rotation may occur due to
reflection by the ice crystal, or in transmitted light due
to the birefringence of ice. A polarized source is used to
illuminate the sample volume, and a detector is placed
behind a crossed polarizer so that no light is sensed
unless the plane of polarization undergoes a rotation in
the sample volume. The instruments differ in the
scattering angle; the MEE counter detects light
scattered at 55°, while the Washington counter detects
light scattered near 0°.
In the Washington instrument described by Turner
and Radke (1973), the polarized light source (a laser in
later versions) is intercepted by a beam stop beyond the
sample volume, but scattered light from particles is
accepted in a small annular region around the beam
stop. This light strikes a polarizing filter, aligned with its
plane perpendicular to the original polarization plane,
and light transmitted through the polarizer is detected
by a photomultiplier. The sample volume is on the order
of0.05liter per meter of flight path. Early versions were
only sensitive to ice crystals larger than 100 ~-tm, but
considerably better sensitivity (down to 20 ~-tm) is
claimed for later versions. However, the fraction
PART III: INSTRUMENTS
detected is small at these sizes (Turner e tal., 1975), and
may depend on crystal habit.
The MEE counter (using visible light) is described in
Sheets and Odencrantz (1974). This detector illumi-
nates the sample volume perpendicular to the
airstream, and samples scattered light at 55° scattering
angle. Detection is accomplished by a photomultiplier
tube placed behind a polarizer.
Another version of the MEE counter uses infrared
light. This unit is similar to the conventional counters
except that the detector is placed at 90° from the
illuminating beam, and also 90° from the incident
airstream. The performance of this instrument has been
evaluated by Sheets and Odencrantz (1974), who found
that the infrared unit is more sensitive and provides
better water-ice discrimination. The infrared unit is
capable of detecting 50 ~-tm crystals while rejecting 1
mm water drops.
The MEE and Washington units both provide the
possibility of a real-time aircraft display of ice crystal
concentrations and facilitate rapid data analysis. No
attempt is made to obtain size information, and the
lower size limit is probably not very well defined
because of the variation in pulse height possible from
the same crystal in different orientations. Because of
significant size-dependent efficiency corrections
(Turner et al., 1975), which may also depend on crystal
habit, independent size and habit information is needed
to obtain reliable crystal concentrations. Another
potential problem is that, although discrimination is
good against single water drops, multiple scattering
from many droplets may result in depolarization of the
beam and a false signal; the illuminated region is on the
order of 0.1 cm3 , and so may contain numerous cloud
droplets.
2) OPTICAL IMAGING
The basic PMS optical array spectrometer has been
modified to provide two-dimensional images of hy-
drometeors (Knollenberg, 1976). This is accomplished
by recording the status (illuminated or shadowed) of
each element in the array at frequent intervals as the
shadow of a hydrometeor passes over it. The result can
be reconstructed into a two-dimensional picture of the
hydrometeor shadow.
The probe uses a 32-element photodiode array, with a
typical resolution of 25 ~-tm per sensor. (The possible
resolution is a function of aircraft velocity.) The
shadow of the hydrometeor is magnified and imaged
onto the photodiode array as in the precipitation probe
already discussed. The rate at which the status of the
array is sampled is governed by the true airspeed of the
airplane so as to prevent distortion of the image. For
DONALD L. VEAL, WILLIAM A. COOPER, GABOR VALl AND JOHN D. MARWITZ
example, at 100 m s-I, the airplane travels 25 JLm in
0.25 x 10-6 s, so to maintain the image shape the array
must be sampled at a rate of 4 MHz.
The images are only recorded for those brief periods
when at least one element is shadowed. When no
particles are in the sample volume, the recording is
suppressed. The images are recorded on magnetic tape
as bit patterns and are also displayed in the airplane on a
scope display. The typical probe samples are about 0.5
liters per meter of flight; larger sample volumes are
possible if resolution is sacrificed.
The size resolution is 25 JLm, and this is approxi-
mately the lower size limit. Ice particles can be
distinguished from water drops if the hydrometeors are
larger than about 100-200 JLm if the ice particles are
non-spherical. For large ice crystals, the image quality
is such that various ice crystal habits can be distin-
guished.
The concentration of particles and 2D images can be
displayed in the airplane. A histogram of sizes is not
generated, and must be obtained through subsequent
analysis.
For sizes smaller than 150 JLm the depth of field is less
than the physical aperture, so the sample volume
becomes a function of size. This complicates the
subsequent analysis, since the particle concentration
must be corrected by considering the size distribution
of particles smaller than 150 JLm. Another effect
governing the sample volume is that the hydrometeor
may overlap the end elements; this increases the
effective aperture by the width of the particle. Since the
entire array is 800 JLm in width, this correction becomes
significant for millimeter-size hydrometeors. For rain-
drops this is a decided advantage. Because even a
portion of the (circular) image is sufficient to determine
the diameter, the sample volume increases as the
particle size increases. It is this feature which makes the
two-dimensional probe preferable to the precipitation
probe even for measurements of raindrops. In addition,
the diameter measured from a two-dimensional image is
more accurate than the single measurement provided
by the precipitation probe.
3) DISCUSSION OF OPTICAL ICE CRYSTAL DETECTION
INSTRUMENTS
Significant advances have been made in this area, with
the construction of the polarization-sensitive detectors
and the PMS two-dimensional probe. The replication
and collection techniques using Formvar and oil-
hexane (discussed below) are still very valuable
because they provide a direct look at the crystals. The
optical counters and the 2D probe provide continuous
monitoring of the ice crystal concentrations in clouds,
249
and accumulate much more information regarding
concentrations than is possible by visual counting and
sizing of replicas. The two-dimensional probe gives a
great deal of additional information regarding size and
shape which is not possible with the polarization-
sensitive counters.
Intercomparisons of these various instruments and
detection techniques are lacking, and are needed.
Comparisons should be made between the
polarization-sensitive counters, and two-dimensional
probe, the foil impactors, and the replicators. There is
still room in this area for additional development of new
instruments. Particularly welcome would be an instru-
ment that could measure mass and/or volume of the ice
elements or that could combine positive ice-water
identification with size and shape information at the
smaller sizes while retaining a large sample volume and
convenient data reduction characteristics. Although
the present instruments should provide the basis for
significant progress in the next few years, additional
instrumentation work is needed in this area.
4) ELECTRICAL ICE CRYSTAL COUNTERS
Mach and Hobbs (1969) and McTaggart-Cowan et al.
(1970) have designed ice crystal counters which make
use of the electric charge transfer that takes place
between a colliding ice crystal and metal wire. The
details of these charge transfer mechanisms are
discussed by McTaggart-Cowan et al. (1970).
Both of these electric ice crystal counters have had
prototype models built and tested but neither of them
have undergone rigorous evaluations. While there
exists some uncertainty about what measurements
these counters would produce (hydrometeor type,
sample volume), their simplicity and ease of operation
may warrant further development and testing.
5) OPTICAL RECORDING, PHOTOGRAPHY
The large information content of optical images and
the possibility for in situ sampling without appreciable
disturbance of the objects make photography an
attractive tool for observation of cloud elements.
Possibilities exist for recording cloud droplets, rain-
drops, or ice particles. The major attraction, however,
is for ice elements where information on shapes is of
great importance; thus more than simple "sizing" is
desirable.
The prime obstacles to photography of cloud
particles from aircraft are the difficulty of achieving large
sample volumes with the necessary magnification and
resolution, and the need to "stop the motion" of the
objects to be photographed. Approaches for obtaining
adequate sampling rates include the optimization of the
250
optical design, the application of "shadowgraph" type
of imaging, and the use of rapid framing rates. Stopping
of motion can be accomplished either by using
illumination of very short duration or by some means of
motion compensation. Flash durations have to be in the
sub-microsecond range and an accompanying require-
ment is for high power output. Motion compensation
can be provided by the use of rotating mirrors or prisms
with the rate of rotation adjusted according to the true
airspeed of the aircraft.
Elliot (1947) and McCullough and Perkins (1951) have
built cameras for photographing cloud droplets from an
aircraft and proved the feasibility of motion compensa-
tion with rotating prisms.
Lavoie et al. (1970) used a modern, high-speed flash
unit to obtain shadowgraphs of raindrops and ice
crystals. With a 0.8 p.,s flash duration, satisfactory
results were obtained at aircraft speeds near 70 m s- 1 •
The sample volume for this camera was about 200 cm3
per frame, which, combined with a framing rate of
140 s- 1 yielded about 0.5 m3 of sample per kilometer of
flight path. Minimum detectable size was 300 p.,m.
Cannon (1974) described a camera which has been
used with notable success on a sailplane. A newer
version of that camera has been operated on the South
Dakota School of Mines and Technology armored T -28
aircraft (Sand, 1974). A rotating mirror is used for
motion compensation. The illumination combines front
and back lighting to allow cloud droplets as well as ice
particles to be photographed. The sample volume is not
defined by baffles and therefore depends on the depth of
field of the camera. Usable depth of field is a function of
particle size, and there is some ambiguity in interpreting
an image of a particular size and optical density.
Cannon discussed in detail the problems involved in
analyzing the photographs and the various procedures
that can be employed. All of these methods are
demanding in time and manpower. With the aid of
computerized image analysis systems, the utility of
cloud particle photography could be considerably
enhanced. The camera configuration used on the
sailplane has a sample volume of 2.6 cm3 per frame, or
about 200 cm3 per km of flight for 10 p.,m diameter cloud
droplets. For 5 mm diameter graupel, the usable sample
volume is increased about 100 fold.
6) OPTICAL RECORDING, HOLOGRAPHY
The main advantages of holographic imaging are that
large sampling volumes are possible and that the spatial
correlations of particles are also reproducible. Holo-
grams provide a nearly ideal record of the field of
particles. The use of holography for observation of
hydro meteors did not require the development of new
concepts, but rather surmounting practical and
PART III: INSTRUMENTS
economic problems and evolution of manageable data
reduction procedures.
Laboratory and ground-based field observations of
hydrometeors using holography have been performed
for at least a decade. The construction of airborne
holocameras is a relatively recent development.
Trolinger (1975) described an instrument which was
flown on a WB-57 aircraft. This unit produced holograms
of 0.3 liter sample volume with approximately 20 p.,m
optical resolution; the shapes of ice particles greater
than about 100 p.,m could be discerned from the images.
Exposure times were in the nanosecond range, so that
particle motion was of no concern. Repetition rate for
taking holograms was ~ s. The same holocamera has
also been operated on a Cessna Citation jet aircraft
(Jahnsen, 1975) where a comparison was made with a
replicator. According to Jahnsen, the holocamera
recorded all particles greater than 75 p.,m, but its
sampling volume was too small for computing concen-
trations. For particles greater than 200 p.,m the holo-
grams proved to be of better guality than the replicas.
Analysis of holographs is performed by illuminating
them with laser light and then scanning the recon-
structed three-dimensional image field with a micro-
scope or camera arrangement. The system currently
used by Trolinger is to position the hologram on a table
which can be moved along three axes by means of
stepping motors and a "joy-stick" control. Images are
viewed with a closed circuit television camera and a
monitor scope. This system allows the analyst to
scan a large sample volume rapidly and also to analyze
the three-dimensionality of the particles which he can
observe by back-and-forth scanning of the image.
Although reproduction of the image's two dimensions is
always incomplete, the analyst can perform his
classification based on the entire information content of
the images.
Considerable improvement in airborne holographic
instrumentation will probably be forthcoming in the
future. Increases in sampling rate (to 10-100 s- 1),
weight reduction (from the current 100 kg or so),
decrease of power requirements (now 1 kw), and
improvements in reconstruction/analysis techniques
are the directions where improvements are needed.
7) REPLICATORS AND COLLECTORS
Perhaps the most widely used technique at present
for the sampling of ice crystals is the convenient
Formvar-replication procedure. Schaefer (1956) intro-
duced the method to cloud physics; many variations of
the original technique have since been developed, and
the possibility of using materials other than Formvar
has also been reported.
Formvar replication involves the capturing of an ice
DONALD L. VEAL, WILLIAM A. COOPER, GABOR VALl AND JOHN D. MARWITZ
crystal, or cloud droplet, in a solution of the replicating
material which envelopes the crystal and hardens by the
fast evaporation of the solvent. The ice sublimes,
leaving a plastic cast of often remarkable detail.
Microscopic examination of the replicas can then be
conducted at leisure and at normal room temperatures.
This is of special advantage for aircraft sampling. With
ice particles, temperature control inside the instrument
is especially important. The addition of a dye to the
Formvar solution enhances the contrast of the replica
(Hanaway et al., 1972). Artifacts caused by irregular
drying of the Formvar layer, the condensation of water
onto the evaporatively cooled Formvar, and the lack of
sufficient contrast for very small crystals put limits on
the interpretation of replicas. In addition, particles
often drift together in the coating and this leads, at
times, to obscuration of some particles. Some of these
effects have been examined quantitatively by Saunders
and Wahab (1973). Sampling rates for the various
replicators are on the order of tens of liters per km of
flight path. This is quite low for ice crystals whose
concentrations may be only a few per liter. Further-
more, with the continuous replicating devices the
replicas are spread out over long stretches of film, and
this hinders analysis. With non-continuous devices
(single slides) a problem comes up in the determination
of exposure time because the Formvar layer hardens in
a length of time which is difficult to specify.
Direct capture of ice crystals on oiled slides was
employed by Weickmann (1947) and this technique has
been revived recently at the University of Wyoming for
use with single-slide sampling. Ice crystals are collected
on a slide coated with a thin layer of mineral oil to assure
that the crystals adhere. The slide carrying the crystals
is then immersed into a selected silicone oil (Dow
Corning 330 fluid) which is kept at temperatures below
0°C. Because the mineral oil is insoluble in the silicone
oil, the crystals remain on the slides even with
mechanical agitation, and the silicone oil prevents them
from evaporating. Very little deterioration of the
crystals takes place even after tens of hours. As a result,
the original crystals can be preserved for microscopic
examination. Photomicrography is greatly facilitated
by immersing the slides in hexane. The advantages of
this collection technique over Formvar are the absence
of artifacts, improved resolution, simplicity of opera-
tion, no exposure restrictions because of drying time,
and the absence of temperature-control requirements.
Crystals as small as 5 1-Lm are detectable with this
technique, and the details of crystal structure are
completely unobscured.
The most prominent problem with Formvar rep-
licators or with oil-hexane sampling is the fracture of
crystals upon impact onto the collecting surface.
Depending on the attitude at which the crystal impacts,
251
even fairly compact crystals can disintegrate, and only
a small fraction of the branched crystals or loose
graupel remain intact. In response to this problem
attempts have been made to slow down the impaction
velocity. Experience shows that for good results the
impact velocity should not greatly exceed 5 m s- 1 •
Mossop et al. (1967, 1970) devised a decelerator in
which the air is slowed by gradual expansion of the
cross section of a 2 m long tube. There was some
uncertainty in the collection efficiency of the crystal
collector, but the fracturing of crystals was very
substantially reduced. Two designs which achieved
deceleration of the air with much smaller dimensions of
the apparatus were described by Hobbs et al. (1973).
For small particles these would probably work, but the
deceleration distance for large crystals exceeds the
dimensions of the apparatus; large particles therefore
impact on the collector with much greater velocities
than the air at that point. The continuous replicator of
Hanaway et al. (1972) relies on a stagnant air layer
between the sampling aperture and the collecting
surface to slow down the incoming crystals. For the
reason just given, it is difficult to see how this
arrangement would provide satisfactory results. A
decelerator similar to that of Mossop was designed by
Davis and Veal (1974); they also conducted exhaustive
testing and calibration of the unit. Wind tunnel tests,
bench calibrations and in-flight checks were made to
assure the proper flow-field within the decelerator and
to determine the collection efficiency of the unit for
various particle sizes. The deceleration ratio is 11: 1; at
aircraft speeds of about 80 m s-1, the collection
efficiency falls below 50% for particles less than 25 1-Lm
in size. Overall, good results have been obtained with
this decelerator.
A very simple but effective collector device is that of
Schreck et al. (1974). Crystals enter a tube outside the
aircraft; the other end of the tube leads to a small
container of silicone oil at the temperature of dry ice.
Since there is only a small amount of air flowing through
the tube there is some deceleration of the crystals.
Samples collected in the oil are taken to a cold room for
microscopic examination. The directness of this ap-
proach makes it possible to be sure about the features of
the collected crystals or graupel particles.
6. Operation of aircraft as effective research platforms in
thunderstorm research: communications, data
systems and radar
Up to this point, we have treated the ways of
measuring some of the individual quantities that are of
interest to thunderstorm researchers. Effective thun-
derstorm research, however, requires a great deal more
than just individual measurements. While thun-
252
derstorm structure and behavior cannot be said to be
well understood at present, there are a number of
conceptual models (see, for instance, the paper by
Browning in this volume) that contain ideas that can be
tested by purposeful measurement operations. Such
operations require the use of the aircraft platform and
its measurement capabilities as a part of a larger
context, involving one or several radars (especially
where several Doppler radars are used to derive
internal flow fields), other aircraft operated in close
coordination, and other types of measurement. There is
also a need for flexibility, rapid changes of measure-
ment plans in response to the scientific opportunities
offered by each storm situation. Flexibility needs to be
exercised in responses to immediate capabilities, as in
the case of breakdowns of some components of a
coordinated effort, and in response to different storm
types, for which different measurement strategies are
appropriate.
Also germane to the effective use of aircraft as
thunderstorm research platforms is the ease of availa-
bility of the data. With the array of sensitive and often
more or less experimental instruments that are in-
volved, it can be essential to check performance during
and after every flight to determine whether repairs or
recalibrations must be made. It is also desirable to be
able to look at a flight's data quickly so as to learn
scientifically from the information on several time
scales, as noted in more detail below.
a. Airborne data systems
While data systems employed in atmospheric re-
search range all the way from keeping notes on a knee
pad to the sophisticated, computer-directed systems,
the best type of system depends primarily upon whether
a need exists for real-time decisions during the mission,
and upon the temporal resolution required in the
recorded data. If the aircraft crew are to optimize
observations of storms and interact effectively with
other personnel, descriptive parameters must be
available in comprehensible form on-board the aircraft
with minimum delay. The best solution at present
appears to be the use of a computer-directed real-time
system, providing for three important time scales of
data use, as follows.
At the shortest time scale, the aircraft crew can use
the measured parameters to aid in the conduct of the
research flight and relay information to ground sites to
aid in overall operation of the experiment. With the aid
of a computer on board the aircraft the necessary
conversions and corrections for the various parameters
can be made, displaying such variables as potential
temperature, specific humidity, and wind.
The next time scale in a research project is the single
PART III: INSTRUMENTS
mission or one-day cycle. With a properly configured
data system it is not difficult to obtain hard copy
representations of selected portions of the data very
soon after each flight. This enables the scientists to
reconstruct and review the highlights of the mission,
compare their data with other observations, and alter
procedures in subsequent flights if the scientific
objectives warrant.
The longest time scale, that of the field season,
requires accumulating daily data and performing many
types of detailed analysis which may have been
suggested already from examination of data at the
shorter time scales. The data which are recorded for
later analysis should be in the most basic form to
facilitate any new computation or analysis scheme.
Airborne computer-directed data systems are appro-
priate to serve these three time scales of data use. They
can be designed to operate in three modes, selectable by
simply entering new programs into the on-board
computer. These modes of operation are 1) the data
acquisition mode, 2) the self-check or preflight-
postflight program, and 3) the data processing mode. In
the first mode the sensor outputs are transferred to the
computer through a multiplexer after being signal-
conditioned. Data which are loaded into the computer
are formatted and recorded by an appropriate recorder.
In addition to recording the data in its most fundamental
form, the computer calculates various derived parame-
ters for real-time display. Selected fault detection and
identification during the data collection operations can
also be provided by the on-board computer. Fault
indications are desirable if either instantaneous values
or rates of change of variables fall outside predeter-
mined ranges. The computer can also monitor the status
of the tape recorder and perform a "read-after-write"
check on the data recorder. If any of the above
malfunctions are detected a signal or code which
identifies the fault can be displayed in the aircraft.
The second mode of operation is very useful as a
preflight-postflight or trouble-shooting tool. The data
system can be designed with sensor simulation circuitry
which can be controlled by the computer to produce
any desired output over the range of the sensor being
simulated. This enables a rapid check for correct
operation of the data system itself.
The third mode of operation, the data processing
mode, is performed on the ground after the mission.
Appropriate peripheral equipment such as line printers
and teletypes are interfaced to the aircraft system, and
the desired processed data are obtained on hard copy.
The ability to view the data even in a limited way during
field projects away from home base is often very useful.
With computer compatible formats, extensive process-
ing of the data on other computer facilities is
straightforward.
DONALD L. VEAL, WILLIAM A. COOPER, GABOR VALl AND JOHN D. MARWITZ
Because of weight or space limitations on some
research aircraft, on-board recording of the data may
not be desirable, and telemetry link from the aircraft to
a ground station can replace the aircraft recording
system. The critical factor in such schemes is the
range-altitude capability of the telemetry link.
b. Aircraft communications systems
Communications requirements for research aircraft
often exceed the capability of communications systems
installed in aircraft which are used principally for
transportation purposes. A frequent tendency, how-
ever, is to place an aircraft in a research role directly
from a transportation fleet without altering the com-
munications system, in spite of the fact that transporta-
tion aircraft systems are designed to isolate the pilot
from the passengers in the aircraft! For an airborne
research team to be optimally effective, a reliable
communications system must enable 1) the crew
members to function as a team without shouting over
ambient noise, 2) the aircraft crew to function as a team
with the project ground controllers, and 3) the pilot to
have unobstructed communication with the FAA
controllers. The development of a system to satisfy
these requirements is straightforward but often does
not receive the attention it deserves.
For a flying laboratory to be most effective the
scientific crew members and pilot must be able to
communicate with a minimum of effort. If special effort
is required to get the attention of another crew member,
the inevitable result is that after a short while,
communications that are necessary for the mission
objective simply do not take place. In addition, the
system should be designed so that each member of the
crew can isolate his conversation from the other crew
members. This is often required if the pilot needs to
communicate with the FAA controllers while other
crew members carry on discussions between them-
selves or discuss flight procedures with project ground
controllers. This requirement can best be achieved by
having a "hot" or constantly available interphone
system conveniently available to each crew member.
It is well worth repeating, for emphasis, that the
communications and data systems aspects of research
aircraft are essential parts of the success of the overall
research effort.
c. Aircraft radar
Airborne radar is an invaluable aid for studying
severe storms with an aircraft. It provides the aircraft
crew knowledge of the storm intensity on their intended
flight path, greatly supplementing the ground control-
ler's radar view of the entire storm. Penetration of the
weak echo region or close maneuvering near severe
253
storms cannot be safely achieved by most aircraft,
without on-board radar.
Many high quality commercial systems are presently
available with a variety of antenna sizes and scope
displays. For research purposes it is recommended that
a system which will display contours of reflectivity on a
daylight scope be selected. The frequency and power of
the system selected are functions of the intended use
and the size of the aircraft on which the unit is to be
installed.
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Thompson, Dennis W., 1972: Airborne refractometer measurements.
Facilities for Atmospheric Research, NCAR, No. 20, March.
Trolinger, J. D., 1975: An airborne holography system for cloud
particle analysis in weather studies. Paper presented at the
Annual Meeting of New York Academy of Sciences, May. To be
published in the Proceedings.
Turner, F. M., and L. F. Radke, 1973: The design and evaluation of an
airborne optical ice particle counter. J. Appl. Meteor., 12,
1309-1318.
- - , - - , and P. V. Hobbs, 1975: Optical techniques for the
counting of ice particles in mixed phase clouds. Atmos. Tech.,
NCAR, No. 8, 25-31.
Warner, J., and T. D. Newnham, 1952: A new method at
measurement of cloud water content. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor.
Soc., 78, 46-52.
--,and R. E. Cottis, 1976: A simplified system of measurement of
vertical air velocity from an aircraft. Inter. Rep. CSIRO, July.
Weickmann, H. K., 1947: Die Eisphase in der Atmosphare. Reps.
Trans., No. 716, Ministry of Supply (A), Volkenrode, 244-247.
--,and H. J. aufm Kampe, 1953: Physical properties of cumulus
clouds. J. Meteor., 10, 204, 211.
 A Review of Surface Hail Measurement 1
T. R. NICHOLAS

National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

ABSTRACT

Commonly used and experimental methods for collection of hail data at the ground are discussed in this review.
Observer reports of hail characteristics and sampling techniques are described. Then, instruments capable of
remote deployment and objective measurement of various hail parameters are discussed. For each measurement
system the paper describes the method of operation, advantages and disadvantages, and, where appropriate,
measurement accuracies, instrument calibration procedures, and data reduction methods and problems. Finally,
there is a brief discussion of the uncertainties involved in making hail measurements, and some comments on future
measurement possibilities.

1. Introduction non-recording instruments, resulting in greatly in-

creased complexity and cost. However, the added
For more than 30 years scientists have been
collecting information about hail from subjective information made available by the advancement has in
observations of hailfalls and associated phenomena, many cases justified the expenditures.
from analysis of collected hailstones, and from meas- This paper reviews the commonly used systems of
urements of hail parameters by instruments. Changnon, measuring hail including estimates of hailfall parame-
in his review article in this volume, indicates that much ters made by observers and mobile hail chase vehicles,
early hail research was motivated by the economics of and non-recording and recording hail instruments and
crop and aircraft losses due to hail. He credits a major samplers of many varieties. There will be a brief
expansion of effort in the field to an increased interest in description of the operation of each system, followed
general weather research and storm forecasting by a discussion of its operational advantages and
techniques, and the availability of meteorological radar disadvantages and a critical evaluation of its performance.
and automatic data processing. Crop damage then For the purposes of this review, a distinction is made
prompted further development of damage assessment between observer-dependent data systems including
techniques (Brown, 1975) and led to consideration of hail chase operations and manned hail samplers; and
methods of suppressing hail in the 1960's. instruments which are capable of operation in a remote
Initially, records of hail occurrence were kept by the location without requiring attention during their data
National Weather Service (NWS) and by insurance collection operations. It should be noted that a recent
companies in the United States. With the expanded review of hail measuring instruments (Towery et al.,
interest in hail, special purpose networks of trained, 1976) overlaps the present review to some degree.
volunteer observers were set up in many parts of the
world to record detailed information about hail occur- 2. Measurement systems
rences and associated meteorological phenomena.
Then, because widely dispersed and uniform, objective a. Observer reports
measurements of simple hail parameters were desired, The volunteer networks of observers, which were
instruments were developed to provide objective some of the first sources of comprehensive hail data,
measures of hail. continue to provide information for a variety of
Further developments in hail measurement systems scientific needs. These include: the establishment of
have taken the form of refinements of observer regional hail climatologies; an increased understanding
reporting methods by stratification of estimates, and of hailfall structures and characteristics and hail storm
expansion of instrument capabilities by addition of mechanisms; analyses of damage caused by hail to
technological improvements. For example, the meas- crops, and the establishment of functional relationships
urement of the time, intensity, and duration of a hailfall between observed damage and certain hail parameters;
demanded significant improvements to the simple, and a determination of response variables which can be
used to assess the effectiveness of hail suppression
1 This review was conducted as part of the National Hail Research
efforts.
Experiment, managed by the National Center for Atmospheric
Research and sponsored by the Weather Modification Program, Reports obtained from trained observers or coopera-
Research Applications Directorate, National Science Foundation. tive residents typically contain estimates of the time
257
258
HOP~ER
c"'LLto
TIME RESOLVED HAIL COLLECTOR
FIG. I. Schematic of Swiss recording sampler (Federer, 1976).
and duration of hail, the percent of ground covered by
hail, and the largest and the most common hailstone
sizes. They also provide estimates of the wind speed
and rainfall accompanying the hail. Observer networks
have been a common source of hail data in Alberta,
Canada (Douglas and Hitschfeld, 1958b; Barge et al.,
1973; Summers and Wojtiw, 1971 ; Wojtiw and Renick,
1973), in South Africa (Carte, 1964; Carte and Held,
1972), and in Illinois (Changnon, 1967, 1969, 1971a, b)
and Colorado (Schleusener and Marwitz, 1965; Garcia
et al., 1974; Nicholas 1975) in the United States.
Many problems associated with the operation of
observer networks and with interpretation of the results
have been discussed by Carte and Held (1972) and
Changnon (1971a). The reliability ofthe measurements
has been improved greatly over the years by stratifica-
tion techniques but the data still remain difficult to
objectify and standardize. Another difficulty results
from the inability to distribute reporting locations
uniformly over an area of interest since most observers
are residents of the area. Despite these limitations,
impressive statistical correlations between observed
crop damage and estimated hail parameters have been
noted by Changnon (1971a, b) and Barge et al. (1973).
b. Hail chase
Mobile hail chase teams, positioned in the path of an
advancing hailstorm, collect hailstone samples for later
analysis, and record the position, time and duration of
hail as well as the accompanying rain and winds. This
has permitted verification of measured radar reflec-
tivities by Browning et al. (1968), Federer and
Waldvogel (1975) and Douglas (1964). Chase teams
provide the most detailed data on hailfalls of any system
used to data since hailstones are collected and analyzed
for their shape, size, structure, density and many other
PART III: INSTRUMENTS
characteristics as described by List (1961), Douglas
(1963), Schleusener (1963) and Macklin in this volume.
Highly sophisticated and expensive equipment can be
exposed to hail occurrences by moving it to the area of
imminent hail potential (Federer and Waldvogel, 1975).
The cost of operation of a chase vehicle in addition to
H[xaNt the data processing and analysis requirements limit the
widespread usefulness of the technique, and unless a
fleet of vehicles is used, spatial information about single
hailstreaks cannot be obtained. It should also be noted
that there are operational problems associated with
vectoring vehicles to appropriate locations (Auer and
Marwitz, 1968).
c. Hail samplers
Hail samplers, normally consisting of a collection
funnel and dry-ice chest, have been deployed in remote
locations and serviced regularly. List (1961) and
Douglas and Hitschfeld (1958a) describe such a
collector and the subsequent analyses of the collected
hailstones. This type of instrument has the advantage of
remote placement and can be deployed ill..jln array but
suffers from sampling problems such as limited size and
lack of time resolution. Data reduction and analysis also
require considerable time and resources.
d. Recording samplers
The Swiss mobile hail sampling system includes an
instrument which collects time resolved hail samples
and preserves them in chilled hexane. The instrument,
shown in Fig. 1, is composed of a hail-rain separator and
a rotating tray that is divided into segments and filled
with chilled hexane. Hail falling into the tray is
separated according to the time of fall by the rotation
speed of the tray (Federer, 1976). The sampler is placed
outside a chase vehicle and is started manually. It does
not record clock time, is not self-powered, and must be
tended during data collection. Data reduction proce-
dures are tedious but provide a large amount of
information.
e. Hail instruments
1) H AILPAD
Largely in response to the need for objective and
widely spread measurements of hail, Schleusener and
Jennings (1960) and Decker and Calvin (1960) de-
veloped the hailpad, pictured in Fig. 2. It was composed
of a styrofoam pad covered with aluminum foil.
Schleusener measured the major and minor axes of
elliptical dents left in the aluminum foil and related them
to stone size by calibration using steel spheres. These
were dropped on the pad from a height sufficient to
match the kinetic energy of a theoretical hailstone
T. R. NICHOLAS
falling at its terminal velocity. It was assumed
that the stones were hard, smooth spheres of known
homogeneous density falling through undisturbed air of
known density and viscosity. Approximate drag
coefficients of the stones were also assumed. Many
variations in the composition of the styrofoam and foil
and in the instrument calibration and data reduction
procedures have occurred since the appearance of the
first hailpad but the basic concept and assumptions
remain the same. Strong (1974) has discussed many
aspects of hailpad measurements and operational
features and concludes that, though the hailpad does
possess numerous drawbacks, it still provides indis-
pensable information for hail research and for hail
suppression studies. Indeed, the hail pad is currently the
most widely accepted and used hail isntrument and
forms the basis for more complicated instruments now
being developed. Because of its simplicity, low cost,
and rugged construction it is ideal for widespread
distribution in the field. At the very least, hailpads are
effective indicators of the presence of hail. When
properly calibrated, they provide an estimate of the hail
size distribution at a point, integrated over the duration
of the hailfall. With certain assumptions such as those
presented above, the mass, vertical velocity, momen-
tum and energy of impact can be derived. Because these
can be correlated with crop damage the hailpad has
been considered a useful tool for objective assessment
of crop damage, although there are many uncertainties
in the correlation (Changnon, 1971b).
The hailpad, which does not record time, may suffer
from overloading by heavy hail resulting in overlapping
of hailstone dents. This problem has not been
adequately addressed even though it can result in a
substantial loss of data for heavy hailfalls. It is also
important to note that the limited size of the hail pad
sampling area (typically 30 em square) may in-
sufficiently record the size distribution of a light hail.
Finally, there is no way to distinguish between two
successive hailfalls occurring between service events of
the hailpad. Thus its value is limited to studies of
individual storms, although there are efforts underway
to develop hail timing devices to accompany the hailpad
and supply hailfall time and duration and identify the
presence of more than one hail occurrence between
service events.
A major problem with hailpads is the time and labor
required to reduce the data. Some time-saving methods
have been employed such as placing dents into size
categories instead of accurately sizing each one, or
measuring a common dimension (typically the major or
minor elliptical axis) of the roughly circular indenta-
tions. Dents smaller than a selected threshold diameter
(typically 5 mm) are often counted without being sized,
to save time. Likewise, when dents within any size
259
FIG. 2. Examples of hailpads used by the NHRE along with data
reduction tools . Dents on pads on left and bottom were highlighted by
roller-painting foam before measuring.
category are numerous enough, they may be counted
only on a portion of the pad (Changnon, 1973).
In normal operation, the hailpad is said to provide
hail size distributions to an average accuracy of ±20%
(Towery and Changnon, 1974). In fact, due to the
problems mentioned above, the variation in accuracy
between pads and among dent sizes may be significantly
worse although no quantitative statement of these
variations is available at this time. The overall
measurement accuracy of the hail pad has been shown
by Strong (1974), to be a function of stone size, shape,
hardness and impact angle; of the position of the dent on
the pad; and of the pad components themselves. Lack
of homogeneity in the styrofoam and the presence of a
thin layer of rain on the pad surface have been
qualitatively shown to affect the measured dent size
substantially. All the factors mentioned above affect
the distinctness of the dent boundary and, hence,
the reproducibility of reading the dent. Because the
accuracy of hailpad calibrations also varies with
stone size for the same reasons, the prediction of
stone size from measured dent size is less accurate
for smaller dents. Thus, it is extremely difficult
to assign an average accuracy to a hailpad measure-
ment.
Hailpads give little measure of wind during the
hailfall, which is an important factor in determining
crop damage. Strong (1974) considers the problem and
suggests that the ratio of the major and minor axes of an
elliptical dent might be related to the angle of impact of
the stone and thence to the horizontal wind speed.
However, the natural variation in the measurements
has proved to be sufficiently large to mask all but the
grossest approximation of wind speed by this method.
260
FIG. 3. Illinois State Water Survey hail stool and hailpad
in frame (Towery and Changnon, 1974).
2) HAIL STOOL
In Illinois, Changnon (1973) addressed the need for
measuring the wind-blown hail by developing a hail
stool, pictured in Fig. 3. The instrument consists of a
round, horizontal surface supported by a foil-covered
styrofoam cylinder. Windblown stones impacting at an
angle less than about 14a from the vertical appear as
dents only on the top surface. For greater vertical
angles stones impact the cylinder and an estimate of
mean wind speed and direction can be made by
measuring the distance from the top surface to the
uppermost dents on the cylinder.
FIG. 4. Illinois State Water Survey hail cube mounted on
fence post (Towery and Changnon, 1974).
PART III: INSTRUMENTS
3) HAIL CUBE
A more successful method for estimating wind
accompanying hail, has been developed in Italy (Vento,
1972) and implemented in Illinois by Morgan and
Towery (1974a) and adopted recently by the National
Hail Research Experiment in Colorado. The device,
pictured in Fig. 4, consists of a cubical frame fitted with
one horizontal and four vertical hail pads. The relative
numbers of stones on the vertical and horizontal
surfaces yield estimates of the mean horizontal velocity
of the stones and the mean direction of impact. The
accuracy of the method is not well established, but
should be considerably better than available with the
hailstool. Logistical problems involved in handling five
hailpads per instrument are significant, but the data
reduction process for the four vertical faces is made
easier because the size of the dents need not be
measured.
4) HAIL WIND DETECTOR
Another " hail-wind detector" developed by the
National Weather Service is discussed by Towery and
Changnon (1974) and pictured in Fig. 5. It consists of a
curved, gridded impact surface mounted on a wind vane
which orients itself to the oncoming hail and records the
average angle of incidence of the hail. Two problems
with the instrument are its small sampling area and the
slow response characteristics of the vane.
The instruments mentioned above all measure hail by
retaining the impression of a hailstone impact. There
are others which separate rain from hail and preserve
each for later measurement or analysis.
FIG. 5. Hail-wind detector. The instrument orientates itselfinto the
falling hail and provides an estimate of the average angle of impact of
wind driven stones (Towery and Changnon, 1974).
T. R. NICHOLAS
5) RAIN-HAIL SEPARATORS
Because of the requirement for preserving hailstones
for analysis, instruments were developed which sepa-
rated hailstones from the accompanying rain water by
mechanical means. The principle of an inclined screen
used to separate hail from rain has been employed in
Switzerland (Federer and Waldvogel, 1975), and in the
United States. The Swiss separator feeds recording or
time-resolved sampling devices in a specially equipped
hail chase van. In the United States, the National Hail
Research Experiment (NHRE) developed a hail-rain
separator to satisfy the need for hail mass meas-
urements as the measure of efficiency of hail suppres-
sion by cloud seeding. The instrument, shown in Fig. 6,
originally separated rain from hail into two containers
from which volumetric measurements of rain and hail
melt were obtained. Later versions of the separator
were equipped with an automatically closing lid to
eliminate contamination of the samples by precipitation
during non-operational periods. Attempts are under-
way to equip the separator with a recording mechanism.
f Recording hail instruments
Measuring the time and duration of hailfalls and
estimating hail rate is necessary for verifying radar
measurements of hail and for other applications. Since
time information was not supplied by the instruments
mentioned above, recording instruments were de-
veloped which measured time-resolved hail parame-
ters. It should be noted here that the discrimination of
time of hail rate adds significant cost and complexity to
the instruments, thus reducing their usefulness for
widespread distribution and data collection.
FIG. 6. National Hail Research Experiment instrument site
showing (left to right) NOAA momentum sensor, hail!rain separator,
hailpad, and Belfort weighing raingage. University of Wyoming
mobile instrument van and anemometer are shown in background .
261
7
~
FIG. 7. The Geophone hail momentum sensor shown assembled at
left and broken into recorder unit (center) and transducer (right).
Sensing plate is 15 em in diameter (Johnson et a/., 1975).
1) THE GEOPHONE
In the final report of Project Hailswath, McNeil et al.
(1966) investigated the feasibility of remotely detecting
hail using acoustic devices in combination with
telemetry . The limited range of the sensors caused
rejection of this proposed instrument. Finally, a
momentum sensor consisting of a seismic '' geophone''
transducer and associated circuitry for recording
impacts of hailstones was introduced. The instrument,
shown in Fig. 7, was developed by Fremstad (1968) and
Gjelsvik (1969) with electronics designed to condition
the signal generated by hail impact so as to be
distinguishable from other phenomena such as rain.
The geophone sensor responds to as many as 50
impacts per second over its 177 cm 2 sensing area and
records the information on cassette magnetic tape. It
has a nearly linear response over a wide range of stone
sizes. The major disadvantages of the present model
arise from its inability to record clock time, its small
(15 em) diameter sampling area, and its inability to
respond to wind-induced horizontal momentum. Den-
nis et al. (1971) have presented time resolved hail size
distributions for 6 storms using this instrument and
have calculated equivalent reflectivity factors Ze for the
hail shafts. Johnson et al. (1975) extended the analysis
to relations between calculated energy of impact from
the sensor and damage to crops. The instrument is
presently being considered for widespread use by NWS
first order stations for routinely recording hail occur-
rences.
2) NOAA MOMENTUM SENSOR
Developed by the Atmospheric Physics and Chemis-
try Laboratory of NOAA, the instrument was tested by
the NHRE for two years, (Robitaille and Nicholas,
262 PART III: INSTRUMENTS

(ISWS) developed a recording hail momentum sensor

based on the principle of a ballistic pendulum. The
instrument is shown in Fig. 9 (Mueller and Changnon,
1968). It is self-powered, simple, relatively inexpensive
for a recording instrument, and is capable of measuring
the momentum of 6 mm to 7 em hailstones occurring
every 1.5 s for as many as three 10 min periods.
Deflections in the 30 em diameter platform are recorded
and related, through calibration, to the momentum of a
falling hailstone. Changnon and Staggs (1969) have
compared measurements made by the instrument and
with estimates of crop damage nearby. They also
compared the sensor with the geophone momentum
sensor. The study indicates that the momentum sensor
effectively operates as intended. Nevertheless,
maintenance problems and sensitivity to wind gusts are
disadvantages of the system. Its small sampling area
and lack of sensitivity to wind induced horizontal
momentum of hailstones limit the instrument's adapta-
bility to a wide variety of scientific and operational
FIG. 8. The NOAA hail momentum sensor showing expanded needs.
aluminum impact surface and strip chart recording system (Towery
and Changnon, 1974). 4) RECORDING RAIN-HAIL SEPARATORS
Fig. 10 depicts the Swiss recording rain-hail
1975). Shown in Fig. 8, it consists of a spring-mounted,
separator-spectrometer that is normally mounted in an
36 em diameter, expanded aluminum impact surface
instrumented mobile chase van (Federer and
which deflects in response to the momentum of impact
Waldvogel, 1975). The foam rubber-lined rotating
of a hailstone. The deflection is translated into a mark,
bottom plate is photographed every 30 s while hail is
of a length proportional to the hailstone momentum,
falling. At the end of each 30 s period the stones on the
inscribed on contact-sensitive strip chart paper. Once
plate are removed by wiper blades. The photographs
activated by the impact of a hailstone sensed by an
give a time-dependent hailsize spectrum as sampled by
inertial switch, the chart drive runs until 90 s after the
the 0.1 m2 opening.
last impact. The instrument is battery powered and
The spectrometer has measured numerous hail
event actuated. Time of hail occurrence is obtained
events and has proved to be effective. It must be
from a recording rain gage through a relay system with
an accuracy of ±2 min. Preliminary calibration curves
for the sensor using steel spheres dropped from an
appropriate height to match the momentum of a falling
hailstone shows an average measurement accuracy of
±25%. It should be noted, however, that the instrument
does not respond well to hail stones less than 1 em
diameter.
Use of the instrument in the NHRE field project was
discontinued after the 1973 season because of opera-
tional difficulties, maintenance requirements and the
instrument's sensitivity to wind gusts in the field
environment. Other disadvantages of the instrument
include its sensitivity to location of the impact on the
screen surface, difficulty in reducing and interpreting
the raw data and the dependence of the instrument on
an outside timing mechanism.

3) BALLISTIC PENDULUM MOMENTUM SENSOR FIG. 9. The Illinois State Water Survey ballistic pendulum hail
momentum sensor showing assembled model (left), inner workings
In response to the results of a questionnaire sent to with three clocks and drum chart (center) and protective cover (right)
hail scientists in 1966, the Illinois State Water Survey (Towery and Changnon, 1974).
T. R. NICHOLAS 263

COlLECTOR 0 I m 1
operated moving foil hail recorder (Koren, 1969),
shown in Fig. 12. Hail falling through the 46 em square
opening is separated from rain by an inclined screen,
closes a switch and then falls onto the foil from a fixed
height. The switch closure produces a time mark on the
recorder and starts the foil drive motor. The instrument
produces a continuous record of hailstone impressions.
No mention is made by Koren (1969), of the back-
surface for the foil, or of problems involved in
CLOC•
preserving and reducing data on the foil which, after
being dented, is rolled up. The instrument yields
W I NDSHIELD .IP[$
time-resolved hail size distributions through calibra-
tion, but does not measure wind effects.
TUANTAIL£ ll [0 WI TH
roA .. RU88ER
6) OPTICAL DISDROMETER

A recording hail spectrometer (Fig. 13) was de-

veloped in part by NHRE. A light source shines on a
HAIL SPECTROMETER
parabolic mirror which creates parallel rays which
FIG. 10. Swiss photographic spectrometer showing turntable which travel across the sampled region and are intercepted by
rotates every 30 s revealing a new hail distribution for photography a horizontal array of 100 phototransistors. A hailstone
(Federer, 1976).
falling through the 25 em x 37 em sampling area
intercepts a beam of light as wide as its maximum
hand-started and depends upon an outside power
source. These limitations require that the instrument be horizontal dimension. Electronic scanning of the
photocells at 10 kHz permits an estimate of the
continually monitored during data collection. Data
reduction, although simple, is time-consuming. fallspeed of a nearly spherical stone. The instrument
In 1973, the NHRE equipped its hail-rain separators provides a time resolved vertical kinetic energy
spectrum as well as a size distribution. One difficulty
with flow rate transducers and a digital recorder which
was designed to measure one-minute mass amounts of with the instrument is its inability to distinguish small
rain and hail. Fig. 11 shows a schematic of the separator
COLLE"CTOR ANE"A •
and the recording system. Rain, after it is separated ~126l'cm 1
from hail, flows through a flow-digitizing device OPEN TOP(
--- --- BAFFLE"
(formerly an automatic siphon, now a tipping-bucket)
which feeds a digital signal to one channel of the BAFFLE"
recorder. Hail falling into a water-filled reservoir
displaces its mass in water and the overflow is / B A F FLE"
monitored by another flow-digitizing device which
feeds into a second channel in the recorder. The
recorder is event activated, responding only to the
presence of input signals from the flow sensor, and
battery powered. Whenever the flow digitizers count a
measured volume of rain or hail, a count is accumulated
RAIN
in a memory register. At the end of a minute, ifthere has COLLE"CTOR
been precipitation, the contents memory register, HA IL
COLLECTOR
including the time and digitized rain and hail amounts
are flashed onto 35 mm film. The instrument does not
give information about hailstone sizes or numbers or
wind induced hailstone kinetic energy or momentum
but does record hailfall and rainfall times, durations and
DIGITAL
estimates of vertical mass fluxes of rain and hail. Field RE"COROE"R
SE"OIME'NT CliP
tests of the instrument are still being conducted.

5) MOVING FOIL HAIL RECORDER

NHRE RAIN/HAIL SEPARATOR
After experimenting with acoustic and other impact FIG. 11. Schematic of the NHRE haiVrain separator showing
sensors, the Alberta Hail Project designed a battery- recording system (Long et a/., 1976).
264
GUARD
PULSE
CONNECTION
METAL
SCREEN
FIG. 12. Side and plan views of moving foil hail recorder from Alberta (Koren, 1969).
(5-6 mm diameter) hailstones from large water drops.
The instrument is self-powered, solid state, and has no
moving parts. It is activated upon impact of a hailstone
on the case and records up to ten hailstones per second
on 35 mm film. Nicholas and Smith (1976) describe the
operation of the instrument and the extensive field and
laboratory tests that have been conducted. Small
sampling area, and lack of sensitivity to wind-blown
hail somewhat limit the instrument's usefulness.
g . Other instruments
Many other hail measurement systems have been
studied and discarded or are presently being developed.
Acoustic devices, such as have been used in raindrop
spectrometers, have been proposed but as yet the
technical difficulties with the method have precluded a
working instrument. Changnon and Staggs (1969) tested
a device designed by Goyer that was intended to relate
the momentum of an impacting hailstone to the change
in resistance across a pad of butyl rubber as it was
CUTAWAY VIEW OF SECO 0 GENEIIATION OISOIIOMETEA
FIG. 13. Schematic of NHRE optical hail disdrometer (Nicholas, 1975).
PART III: INSTRUMENTS
r:;:;::f::;:-----;#::;;:::~=:::;t..-RUSTRAK ON-OFF SWITCH
TIME SET SWITCH
6V MOTOR
MOTOR ON- OFF SWITCH
PULSE CONNECTION
SHIELD
MOVING ALUMINUM
FOIL UNIT
.....JI--..:--r HAIL ACCUMULATION TRAY
L __ .....::=:=:=::::=...__g-MICROSWITCH
deformed by a hail impact. The response to isolated
impacts proved to be predictable, but because the
recovery time of the rubber was as much as 10 s, the
project was discontinued. Goyer also investigated the
possibility of using impression-sensitive paper to
record hailstone impacts but its inability to respond
accurately to actual hailstone impacts caused the
rejection of the method. Haman (1976) has developed a
photographic hail spectrometer which is capable of
being deployed remotely. The instrument consists of a
collector which directs precipitation on to a flat, porous
surface. Rain flows through, but the hail remains and is
photographed every 30 s. The surface then flips,
dumping the photographed stones, so that 30 s hail size
spectra are obtained. The instrument is event-activated
by an optical switch responding to the presence of hail.
The system is quite complex requiring moving parts to
advance the film and flip the collection surface. It is
presently being tested by the NHRE in northeast
Colorado.
T. R. NICHOLAS 265

3. Remote sensing of hail large sampling volume available. The measurements

are integrated over a large volume giving some
All of the hail measurement systems mentioned
information about hailstone characteristics and size
above have limited sampling areas, and share the
distributions of hailstones above the ground.
inability to obtain a statistically adequate sample of a
light hailfall or of relatively rare, but important, large
b. Infrared radiometry
hailstones. This problem can be overcome by the use of
radar to detect the presence of hail or of airborne The application of airborne infrared radiometry to
infrared radiometry analysis of hail-covered ground. hail detection has been studied by the U. S. Army
Neither of these methods is a surface measurement of (Tebo, 1970). The method gives the percent of ground
hail, but a brief discussion of them is included for covered by hail by comparing the radiation from
completeness. hail-covered ground to bare earth. The technique
permits estimates of extent, orientation, shape and fine
a. Radar reflectivity scale structure ofhailswaths, according to Goyer (1971)
and Roads (1973). Problems with the method include
In a final report for Project Hailswath, McNeil and
uncertainties resulting from washing and pooling of
Houston (1966) investigated the feasibility of remotely
hail, radiative uncertainties due to different depths and
detecting hail with a combination of acoustic devices
characteristics of ground cover, and to variations inter-
and telemetry; and with radar used in combination with
rain. By itself the method incompletely verifies the
hail impact sensitive reflectors. The proposals were
existence and the extent of hail coverage. It requires
discarded because of operational difficulties such as
confirmation by surface measurements.
ground clutter, rain, hail and wind noise and others. The
remote detection of hail by single- and multi-
4. Conclusions
wavelength radar is presently a subject of intensive
study. Srivastava and Jameson present a review in this A comparison of available instruments is sum-
volume of hail detection by 3, 5, and 10 em radar marized in Table 1 showing the parameters each
measurements of reflectivity and signal depolarization measures or estimates. Development of surface hail
originally proposed by Eccles and Atlas (1969). The measurement methods continues and many problems
advantages of remote detection of hail over fixed and and uncertainties remain with existing systems. The
mobile instrument and reporting networks lie in the measurements required for various research needs are
flexibility and range of radar measurements and the being reevaluated and new instrumentation must be

TABLE 1. Comparison of surlace hail instrument measurements.

Optical
Geophone, disdrometer,
Hails tool, ISWS and Swiss, and
hail cube, NOAA moving-foil Non- Swiss
Observer hail-wind NHRE momentum spec- recording recording
Information reports Hail pad detector separator sensors trometers samplers sampler
Number of stones Estimated Measured Measured (N/A) Measured Measured Measured Measured
Size of stones Estimated Measured Measured (N/A) Estimated Measured Measured Measured
Derived parameters All All All Mass is Momentum Velocity is Mass is Mass is
Mass estimated estimated estimated measured; is meas- measured; measured; measured;
Vertical velocity all others ured; all all others all others all others
Vertical momentum estimated others estimated estimated estimated
Vertical energy estimated
Total velocity } All All
Total momentum
Total energy estimated (N/A) estimated (N/A) (N/A) (N/A) (N/A) (N/A)

Impact angle Estimated Measured (N/A) (N/A) (N/A) (N/A) (N/A)

Hailfall time duration, Estimated (N/A) (N/A) Mass flux is Momentum Number flux (N/A) Mass flux is
Intensity measured; flux is is meas- measured
all others measured ured
estimated
Structure of stones Percent of (N/A) (N/A) (N/A) (N/A) (N/A) Measured Measured
Density, shape, soft stones
hardness, surlace estimated
and internal structure
266
developed to provide measures of any additional
parameters which may be required. For instance, in the
field of hail suppression, the search for response
variables for statistical experiments is actively being
pursued and combinations of measures of hail charac-
teristics are being proposed as measures of the effects
of cloud seeding.
Efforts are continuing to improve the accuracy,
reliability and objectivity of existing measurement
systems. Presently, even the most reliable of instru-
ments and methods suffer from an inability to
adequately sample hail at a point. Due to the extreme
horizontal variability of hail, even on small scales, and
the relative scarcity of hail occurrences, it is very
difficult to get an adequate sample of hail from a single
storm, and networks and statistical analyses must be
employed to fill in the information gaps. In addition,
simplifying assumptions must be made about hailstone
and hailfall characteristics in order to limit large
potential variations in instrument responses. For
example, such factors as stone size, shape, surface
characteristics and density can radically affect the
kinetic energy of impact of a hailstone. In addition, the
presence of wind can as much as double the impact
energy of a small stone. Therefore, identification of hail
parameters and interpretation of the results are still
somewhat subjective processes requiring the judgment
of -the observer or the scientist examining the data.
Finally, a great deal of work is needed to standardize
data collection, reduction and interpretation techniques
to minimize the uncertainties introduced by these
factors. The hailpad is particularly vulnerable to
variations in interpretation of hail impacts and a great
deal of care and time is required to ensure data of
adequate quality and to assess the total impact of all of
the uncertainties from the various sources. In many
cases, a more expensive instrument is capable of
reducing data reduction and processing costs and
improving the reliability of the information sufficiently
to more than justify its initial cost. In assessing the
relative values of instruments, it is necessary to
consider the type and quality of information required,
the number of measurements required, and the ease of
interpretation and use of the data which is derived from
the system.
Acknowledgments. The author gratefully acknowl-
edges the assistance of Stan Changnon and Neil
Towery, Illinois State Water Survey, Paul Smith,
Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Bruno Federer,
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Byron Phillips
(NOAA), Lube Wojtiw and Guy Goyer, Alberta
Research Council, and Don Veal, Brant Foote, Charlie
Knight, and Alexis Long, National Hail Research
Experiment, for supplying information, photographs,
criticism and support for this review.
PART III: INSTRUMENTS
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Auer, August H., Jr., and John D. Marwitz, 1968: Comments on "The
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Barge, B. L., L. Wojtiw and J. H. Renick, 1973: Hailfall and crop
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Brown, P. S., 1967: Crop Hail Insurance. Ann. Soc. Chartered
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Carte, A. E., 1964: Hailstorms in Johannesburg, Pretoria and
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--,and G. Held 1972: Hailstorms in 1970/71. CSIR Res. Rep. 312,
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--,and R. E. Kidder, 1966: Transvaal hailstones. Quart. J. Roy.
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- - , 1967: Areal-temporal variations of hail intensity in Illinois. J.
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- - , 1969: Hail measurement techniques for evaluating suppression
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- - , 1970: Hailstreaks. J. Atmos. Sci., 27, 109-125.
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- - , 1971b: Hailfall characteristics related to crop damage. J. App/.
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- - , 1973: Hail sensing and small-scale variability. J. Wea. Mod., 5,
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--,and Donald W. Staggs, 1969: Recording hailgage evaluation.
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Decker, Fred W., and Lyle D. Calvin, 1960: Hailfall of 10 September
1959 Near Medford, Oregon. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 42,
475-480.
Dennis, A. S., P. L. Smith, Jr., G. A. P. Peterson and R. D. McNeil,
1971: Hailstone size distributions and equivalent radar reflectiv-
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Meteor., 10, 79-85.
Douglas, R. H., 1963: Recent hail research: A review. Meteor.
Monogr., No. 27, 157-172.
- - , 1964: Hail size distributions. Preprints lith Weather Radar
Conf, Boulder, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 146-149.
- - , and W. Hitschfeld, 1958a: Studies of Alberta Hailstorms. Sci.
Rep. MW-27, McGill University, 79 pp.
- - , and W. Hitschfeld, 1958b: Pattern of hailstorms in Alberta.
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Eccles, P. J., and D. Atlas, 1969: A dual wavelength radar hail
detector-laboratory for atmospheric probing, University of
Chicago, Tech. Rep. 14, 66 pp.
Federer, Bruno, 1976: Preliminary outline of a time resolved hail
sampling system. Personal communication.
Federer, B., and A. Waldvogel, 1975: Hail and raindrop size
distributions from a Swiss multicell storm. J. Appl. Meteor., 14,
91-97.
Fremstad, P. G., 1968: Transducer for measuring hailstones
momentum. Final Report, NSF Grant GA-935, Inst. Atmos.
Sci., South Dakota School of Mines and Technology, 47 pp.
Garcia, Rolando R., Barry E. Weiss and Allan H. Murphy, 1974:
Relationships between crop damage and hailfall parame-
ters on the High Plains. NHRE Tech. Rep., NCAR 7100-76/4,27
pp.
Gjelsvik, Asbjom M., 1%9: A signal processing and recording system
T. R. NICHOLAS
for a hailstone momentum transducer. Final Report, NSF Grant
GA-935, Inst. Atmos. Sci., South Dakota School of Mines and
Technology, 39 pp.
Goyer, Guy G., and John 0. Roads, 1971: The mappingofhailswaths
from airborne infrared radiometry. Preprints 7th Conf Severe
Local Storms, Kansas City, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 231-236.
Haman, Krzysztof, 1976: Description of a photographic hail
spectrometer. NHRE Intern. Memo.
Johnson, G. N., J. L. Halverson, R. D. McNeil, and P. L. Smith,
1975: Evaluation of a hailstone momentum sensor for unat-
tended weather observation stations. Rep. 75-22, NOAA, NWS
Contract 5-19472, 32 pp.
Koren, 0., 1969: Development of a moving foil hail recorder. Tech.
Memo. Tech. 711, Dept. ofTransport Meteor. Branch, Canada,
17 pp.
List, Roland, 1%1: Physical methods and instruments for charac-
terizing hailstones. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 42, 452-466.
McNeil, Richard D., and Jack E. Houston, 1966: A survey of methods
of remote detection of hail. Final Report Project Hailswath,
South Dakota School of Mines and Technology, 2, 1-6.
- - , P. L. Smith, Jr., P. G. Fremstad, and A.M. Gjelsvik, 1%9: An
electronic hailstone momentum sensor. Preprints 6th Conf
Severe Local Storms, Chicago, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 304-345.
Morgan, Griffith, Jr., and Neil G. Towery, 1974; Micro-scale studies
of surface hailfall. Final Rep. NCAR 25-73, UCAR, 34 pp.
--,and Neil G. Towery, 1974: Small scale variability of hail and its
significance for the prevention experiments. Pre prints 4th Conf
Weather Modification, Ft. Lauderdale, 143-149.
--,and Neil G. Towery, 1975: On the role of strong winds in the
damaging of crops by hail and its estimation with a simple
instrument. Preprints Ninth Conf Severe Local Storms,
Norman, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 424-430.
Mueller, Eugene A., and Stanley A. Changnon, Jr., 1968: A record
hailgage for use in hail modification projects. Preprints 1st Nat.
Conf Weather Modification, Albany, Amer. Meteor. Soc.,
494-502.
Nicholas, T. R., and A. C. Smith, 1976: Optical hail disdrometer.
NHRE Tech. Report, NCAR.
267
Roads, J. 0., 1973: A study of hailswaths by means of airborne
infrared radiometry. J. App/. Meteor., 12, 855-862.
Robitaille, Francis E., and T. R. Nicholas, 1975: Mesoscale data
gathering processing and distribution in the National Hail
Research Experiment. Preprints TECAMS Conf, WMO, 9 pp.
Schleusener, R. A., 1963: Hailstorm characterization and crystal
structure of hail. Meteor. Monogr., No. 27,173-176.
- - , and Paul C. Jennings, 1960: An energy method for relative
estimates of hail intensity. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 41,
372-376.
- - , John D. Marwitz, and William L. Cox, 1965: Hailfall data from a
fixed network for the evaluation of a hail modification
experiment. J. App/. Meteor., 4, 61-68.
Strong, Geoffrey S., 1974: The objective measurement of Alberta
hailfall. M.S. thesis. Dept. of Geography, University of Alberta,
182 pp.
Summers, P. W., and L. Wojtiw, 1971: The economic impact of hail
damage in Alberta, Canada and its dependence on various hailfall
parameters. Preprints 7th Conf Severe Local Storms, Kansas
City, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 158-163.
Tebo, Albert R., 1970: Method of determining hail coverage with an
airborne infrared thermometer. Tech. Rep. ECOM 3284, Army
Electronics Command, Ft. Monmoth, 14 pp.
Towery, Neil G., and Stanley A. Changnon, Jr., 1974: A review of
surface hail sensors. J. Wea. Mod., 6, 304-315.
- - , S. A. Changnon, Jr., and G. M. Morgan, Jr., 1976: A review of
hail measuring instruments. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 57,
ll32-ll40.
Ulbrich, C. W., 1974: Analysis of Doppler radar spectra of hail. J.
Appl. Meteor., 13, 387-396.
Vento, D., 1972: La determinazione della energia di impotto della
grandine. Rev. Ita/. Geofis., 21,73-77.
Wilk, K. E., 1961: Radar investigations of Illinois hailstorms. Sci.
Rep. 1, AF 19 (603)-4940, Illinois State Water Survey, 42 pp.
Wojtiw, L., and J. H. Renick, 1973: Hailfall and crop damage in
Alberta. Alberta Research Hail Studies, Rep. 73-1, Edmonton,
12 pp.
 Radar Detection of HaiF
R. c. SRIVASTAVA AND A. R. JAMESON

Laboratory for Atmospheric Probing, University of Chicago, and Illinois Institute of Technology, Chicago

ABSTRACT

The detection of hail by single and multi-wavelength radar reflectivity and depolarization measurements is
reviewed. There are problems of interpretation involved in the detection of hail by the Eccles-Atlas
dual-wavelength (10 em and 3 em) method because of the possible effects of range variations of mean hail
diameter and water coat thickness on hail. An investigation of the feasibility of using 10 em and 5 em wave-
lengths for the detection of hail, and of deducing reflectivities and attenuations by dual radar measurements
at attenuating wavelengths is recommended. Methods of hail detection by measurement of circular de-
polarization ratio suffer from the effects of propagation through the anisotropic medium constituted by
precipitation particles.

1. Introduction criterion, based on radar reflectivity, which can

In the conduct of hailstorm research and hail
suppression experiments, it is clearly important to be
able to remotely detect regions of hail and follow their
progress in space and time. Information about the
size and concentration of hail and its environment is
also highly desirable. The environmental properties of
interest include the three-dimensional wind velocity
and the precipitation content. Radar has been sug-
gested as a possible tool for the remote measurement
of most of these parameters. This article will focus on
the radar detection of hail.
2. Hail detection: single-wavelength reflectivity
A number of workers reported a correlation between
the severity of hail occurrence and maximum radar
reflectivity within the storm. Donaldson (1961) found
that New England thunderstorms have a characteristic
height variation of the radar reflectivity with the
maximum reflectivity occurring aloft. Donaldson re-
ported that the maximum of the radar reflectivity
profile, the height of the maximum, and the ratio ofthe
radar reflectivity maximum to that at the surface all
increased with increasing storm severity. Such radar
reflectivity criteria are probably valid indicators of
the occurrence of hail in a storm; however, they
do not give the location of the hail within the storm. It
is erroneous to associate only regions of high radar
reflectivity with regions of hail. Hail may very well
occur in regions of low radar reflectivity within a
hailstorm which exhibits high radar reflectivities in
other portions of the storm. There is also no single
1 This work was performed as part of the National Hail Research
Experiment, managed by the National Center for Atmospheric
Research and sponsored by the Weather Modification Program,
Research Applications Directorate, National Science Foundation
under Subcontract NCAR 187-71.
predict whether or not a storm will produce hail. A
combination of criteria (radar reflectivity, rate of rise of
echo top, etc.) may be workable but at the present time
must of necessity be based on empiricism or physical
reasoning of doubtful validity.
3. Hail detection: multi-wavelength reflectivity
The equivalent radar reflectivity factor (Z) of
particles in the Rayleigh region is independent of the
wavelength provided the refraction index is also in-
dependent of the wavelength. For particles in the
Mie region, Z shows a strong dependence upon the
wavelength. This wavelength dependence of Z was
suggested by a number of workers as a possible method
of hail detection.
Fig. 1 shows Z for 10, 5.5, and 3.2 em wavelengths
for a monodisperse distribution of hail of concentration
1 gm m- 3 for selected thicknesses of a concentric
water coat on the spherical hail. The radar reflectivities
presented in this paper were calculated using the radar
cross-section of spherical hail reported by Battan eta/.
(1970). Z 10 is considerably greater than Z 3 (the sub-
script will denote the approximate wavelength to which
Z refers) for hail diameters between 1 and 4 em.
Sulakvelidge et al. (1965) claimed success in the detec-
tion of hail by 3.2 and 11 em wavelength radars.
However, these authors did not take into account the
attenuation of radiation through rain. Radiation of 3.2
em wavelength is subject to far more attenuation
than radiation of 10 or 11 em wavelength. In a two-way
passage through a rain path 5 km long and intensity
100 mm h- 1 , as may be encountered in a severe
storm, the attenuations suffered by 10 and 3.2 em
wavelength radiations are estimated to be 0.8 and 22 dB
(see Table VI of Atlas, 1964). Therefore, the radar
reflectivity factor deduced at 3.2 em wavelength

269
270 PART III: INSTRUMENTS

80,------------------- ----· 80.-------------------- ----,

"'
N N ..----~em
CD CD
0

I/
0
·70
0::
0
.···.~.em
.··•
/ - - . . . . . . . _ IOcm
1- /........

/ / \ u
<X
I .···.
IJ_SO

>-
1-
>
;·· >-
1-
>
I- so
u It
w
...J
lJ_
u
w
0::40
1-
z
w
...J
~30
:::l
0
w .005 em WATER COAT THICKNESS .05 em WATER COAT THICKNESS

20 o~--~--~2~---3~---7--~5 2 ~~---L----~2----~3----~4--~5
DIAMETER, CM DIAMETER, CM

FIG. 1. Equivalent radar reflectivity factor for spherical mono- FIG. lb

disperse hail of concentration I g m-3 for wavelengths of 10 em
(dashed), 5 em (dotted) and 3 em (full) and water coat thickness
of (a) 0.005 em, (b) 0.05 em and (c) 0.100 em. 80,------------------- ----·
N
CD
0

without correction for attenuation, Z 3 ', may be less ~70

1-
than Z 3 by as much as 20 dB purely as a result of u
attenuation, while Z 10 ' = Z 10 • Hence Z 3 ' may tum out
<X
lJ_

to be less thanZ10 ' as a result of rain attenuation rather

than hail. Therefore, this method of hail detection is >
highly suspect unless attenuation is accounted for in 1-
deducing radar reflectivity factors. ~50
...J
The rain attenuation at 5.5 em wavelength is con- lJ_
w
siderably less than that at 3.2 em wavelength. It 0::

would be approximately 3.5 dB through the rain path

mentioned in the previous paragraph. Hence 5.5 and
10 em wavelengths are preferable for hail detection if
a correction for attenuation cannot be applied. Accord- .100 em WATER COAT THICKNESS
ing to Fig. 1 the differences between Z 10 and Z 5 may
be significant for hail diameters in excess of about
1.5 em.

4. Hail detection: Eccles-Atlas method FIG lc

Eccles and Atlas (1973) suggested an ingenious

method of overcoming the objections of the direct use
ofmultiwavelength reflectivities. They suggested using
the range derivative of the parameter y defined as
y = 10 logto(Zto' IZa')
The principle of the method may be understood by
reference to Fig. 2 taken from Carbone et al. (1973).
A model storm with a parabolic distribution of rainfall
intensity (top) is considered. The center of the rain
region has an imbedded hail shaft. The ratio y (middle)
increases monotonically with range in the rain only
regions because of the greater attenuation at the 3.2 em
wavelength. At the near edge of the hailshaft y in-
creases more rapidly, and dyldr (bottom) shows a
positive spike because Z 10 ~ Z 3 • At the far edge of
the hailshaft, the ratio y drops and dyldr may become
negative if the effects associated with the hail exceed
that of the attenuation. Thus a positive hail signal
( dy Idr > 0) preceding a negative hail signal (dy Idr < 0)
should be characteristic of a hailshaft. Eccles and
Atlas concluded that in the absence of signal fluctua-
tions (i) dyldr < 0 is an unequivocal indicator of the
R. C. SRIVASTAVA AND A. R. JAMESON 271

far edge of a hailshaft, and (ii) a large positive dy/dr r-(km)

may be interpreted as the near edge of a hailshaft.
To counteract false alarms, it was suggested that a small =- J()()f I

negative threshold be set to avoid identification of a l: sol- (0 l

negative signal fluctuation as the far edge of a hail shaft, ~ 601-
~ 401
and a large positive threshold be set to avoid 0:: 201
identifying a positive signal fluctuation and regions 0 ~--- r--~--~~--+---~--~---
of intense attenuation as the near edge of a hailshaft. - 120
(b)
Eccles and Atlas calculated dy/dr for model hail- :gl()()
~ 80
storms and concluded that their technique "is capable
60
of detecting smaller concentrations of hail with greater >- 40
confidence and in larger backgrounds of non-hail 20 I
precipitation than the use of the dual wavelength 0 I
reflectivity ratio alone because 1) it requires a smaller
hail reflectivity ratio at the two wavelengths 2) it is
not affected significantly by attenuation and 3) it is
independent of absolute radar calibrations.'' However,
Eccles and Atlas emphasized that it is important to
accurately match and synchronize the radar beams for
the two wavelengths, so that the same scatterers are
viewed at both wavelengths.
Preliminary successes in using the Eccles-Atlas FIG. 2. Eccles-Atlas method of hail detection
method of hail detection were reported by Carbone (after Carbone eta/., 1973).
et al. (1973) and Eccles (1973). A considerable quantity
of dual-wavelength radar data collected with the maps of dy/dr frequently show a negative hail signal
CHILL radar in Colorado in connection with NHRE (dy/dr < 0) preceding a positive hail signal. This
and in Illinois has been analyzed and is undergoing pattern of hail signals is opposite to that predicted by
analysis at the University of Chicago. The contour Eccles and Atlas. This "inverse" pattern of hail signals

50r---------------------------~ 50r-------------------------~

~0

WATER
COAT 050-- WATER
THICKNESS, 100-- COAT
em 200 THICKNESS,
500 - · - · em

0 2 3 ~ 5 0 2 3 ~ 5
DIAMETER, CM DIAMETER, CM

FIG. 3. Ratio of 10 em to 3 em equivalent reflectivity factors (Z 10 /Z 3) as a function of hail diameter

and indicated water coat thicknesses: (a) up to 0.01 em, and (b) greater than 0.01 em.
272 PART III: INSTRUMENTS

40r--------------------------, of inverted hail signal patterns casts doubt on the

validity of the Eccles-Atlas method until the reason
for the inverted hail patterns is understood.
5. Inverted hail signal patterns
Jameson (1975) observed inverted hail signal patterns
in vertical incidence dual wavelength observations of a
hailstorm in Illinois on 3 April 1974. In this case, the
Doppler spectrum was also observed at the 10 em wave-
length and provided independent information on the
sizes of the particles. Jameson attributed the negative
01 dy/dr observed in the lower levels to medium sized
.3 wet hail. A reference to Fig. 1 shows that wet hail-
0
stones in the diameter range 0.5 em < D < 1.0 em may
have Z 3 > Z 10 • If the radar beam were to first
encounter rain (or particles in the Rayleigh region),
then medium sized wet hail and finally rain again, an
inverted hail signal pattern would result. While this
WATER
COAT
is a possible reason for an inverted hail signal pattern,
THICKNESS, it is now thought that a different pattern of particle
sizes was probably responsible for the observations of
0 2 3 4 5
hail signals on 3 April 1974. This is discussed in detail
DIAMETER, CM by Jameson and Srivastava (1975).
To see how "spurious" patterns of hail signals may
40r--------------------------, arise refer to Fig. 3 where Y = 10 log (Z 10 /Z 3) is
plotted as a function of diameter for dry hail and hail
having water coatings of indicated thicknesses. The
30 curve for dry hail has zero Y for small diameters.
Y increases monotonically starting with a diameter of
about 1 em to a maximum of about 15 dB at
approximately 1.6 em diameter. Above 1.6 em di-
ameter, Y decreases and shows further oscillations.
Now consider a region of dry hail which is not
admixed with rain and let us neglect attenuation in
the following discussion. Suppose there is hail of one
01 size only in a given pulse volume but that the hail
0
..J diameter changes from one pulse volume to the next .
0
If the radar beam first encountered the largest hail-
stones of diameter 1.6 em and then smaller hailstones,
a negative dy/dr would result. If the hail has a water
coating of thickness 0.001 em, large negative deriva-
tives may result. On the other hand, if this distribution
.050 - - WATER of hail sizes is viewed from the opposite side, so that
.100 - - - COAT
.200 ············· THICKNESS, small particles are encountered first, a monotonically
.500 -·-· em
increasing Y will be observed and attributed to
0 2 3 4
attenuation and probably very high liquid water
5
DIAMETER, CM content. Again consider hail with water coat thickness
0.001 em and suppose that the radar beam first
FIG. 4. As in Fig. 3 but for 10 em and 5 em wavelengths.
encounters small particles and then successively larger
particles up to a maximum diameter of 2 em. In this
persists even when thresholds are imposed on dy/dr instance a high positive dy!dr would be followed by
so the probability of a false alarm is small (typically a large negative dy/dr. The negative dy/dr where the
less than 5%). Moreover, the inverted pattern exhibits largest hail occurs would be erroneously interpreted
continuity in space and time and the probability of as the trailing edge of the hail region. An examina-
this happening by chance is miniscule. The occurrence tion of the figure will show that various combinations
R. C. SRIVASTAVA AND A. R. JAMESON 273

of gradations of particle diameter and water coat thick-
ness can produce patterns of hail signals which would
be erroneously interpreted by the Eccles-Atlas model.
Fig. 4 is similar to Fig. 3 but is for 10 em and 5 em
wavelengths. Hail of diameter 1.5 em has significant
non-zero Y and smaller hail may also have significantly
non-zero Y provided it has a sufficiently thick water
coating.
The above discussion has been with reference to
monodisperse hail size distributions. Similar conclu-
sions hold for hail size distributions of finite width.
Fig. 5 is a contour diagram of Y (Z 10/Z3 , full curves;
Z 10/Z 5 , dashed curves) for hail size distribution which
would produce a Gaussian Doppler spectrum (at 10 em
wavelength) of the indicated mean and standard devia-
tion (u) when viewed at vertical incidence. The fall
speed relationship v = aD 1' 2 [v(m s- 1), D(cm)], with
a = 16 appropriate for surface conditions, was used to
transform terminal velocities to particle sizes. Suitable
scaling may be applied for a different a. The regions
above the sloping straight lines AA should be ignored
because these regions imply hail diameters outside the
range 0-5 em used in the calculations on which Fig. 5
is based. Y is not strongly dependent upon <T over a
large part of the diagram. Hence the earlier discussion
will also apply to hail size distributions of finite
width. Hail signals can then arise by changes of the
central diameter of the size distribution. Gradients of
central diameter can result from particle sorting in vari-
able winds and updrafts. It should be mentioned that
the conclusions in this paragraph are not strongly
dependent upon the assumption of a Gaussian Doppler
spectrum. Calculations for exponential hail size dis-
tributions (not reported here) of the type reported in
the literature yield similar conclusions.
In the above discussion, it was assumed that only
hail was present in the radar beam. In general, hail
and rain will be admixed. The above conclusions would

Water Coat Thickness • 0.0 em

Central Velocity, ms"•
5 10 15 20 25 30 35

1
I

0~--~~~~-LUL~~--~~~~~~~---U--~~_a~~~

0 2 3 4 5
Central Diameter, em
FIG. 5. Contours of Z 10/Z3 (full) and Z 10/Z5 (dashed) as a function of the central diameter and standard deviation of the hail size
distribution and selected water coat thicknesses: (a) 0.0 em, (b) 0.005 em. The contour lines are labeled in dB.
274 PART III: INSTRUMENTS

Water Coat Thickness. 0.005 em

Central Velocity, ms· 1

5 10 15 20 25 30 35

2 4

-12
I
4
A I
I
I
I
I -6
I

0~----_.--~~~--~~~~~~~~--~_.~~~

0 2 3 4 5
Central Diameter, em
FIG. 5b

still apply although the absolute magnitudes of the Y and physical constraints may help to limit the number
ratio would be reduced as the proportion of the re- of possible solutions that can fit the deduced radar
flectivity due to rain increases. Further a non-zero reflectivity factors.
derivative of Y may arise as a result of variations in
the proportion of the total reflectivity due to rain as 6. Measurement of reftectivity at
discussed by Eccles and Atlas. In many cases, how- attenuating wavelengths
ever, the reflectivity due to hail will predominate
over that due to rain and the discussion given here The average power P received at an attenuating
should be applicable. wavelength is given by

From the above discussion which was limited to
spherical hail it is seen that although a negative
range derivative of (Z 10/Z3 ) is a strong indicator of
hail, there are ambiguities of interpretation if an attempt
is made to infer the location of hail. Non-spherical
hail may produce additional new features and further
uncertainties of interpretation. It would be preferrable
to measure radar reflectivity factors by correcting for
(-I adr),
p = (CZ/r 2 ) exp (1)
where C is an appropriate radar calibration constant,
Z the equivalent radar reflectivity factor, r the range
and a the attenuation coefficient. The measured re-
flectivity (Z ') without correction for attenuation IS
given by

I
attenuation. The radar reflectivity factors may then be
interpreted in terms of various possibilities for hail sizes Z' = r 2 P/C = Z exp (- adr) (2)
and hail characteristics. Space and time continuity
R. C. SRIVASTAVA AND A. R. JAMESON
>-
1-
> /
/
---
1- /
0 /
w /
...J /
u. 1
w I ,...----.........._
a:
I /
1:/
1t
~ I CORRECTION
DISTANCE INTO
FIG. 6. Deriving true reflectivity by correction for attenuation.
which may be written
~~ = ~ - Jadr,
where ~ = In Z and ~~ = In Z The problem of deter-
mining ~ from the measured ~~ appears to have been
first considered by Hitschfeld and Bordan (1954). They
assumed an empirically determined relationship be-
tween a and ~ for the purposes of inverting Eq. (3)
and showed that initial errors in ~ (due for example to
measurement errors) increase rapidly until the solution
becomes meaningless. This may be seen intuitively by
reference to Fig. 6. An over-correction leads to an
overestimate of the attenuation and therefore to
further accelerated over-correction. Similarly an
under-correction leads to further and larger under-
correction. (It may be mentioned that a is an increasing
function of n effects of errors of measurement and signal fluctua-
Hitschfeld and Bordan considered observations by
a single radar. It is suggested here that by observing
a storm with two radars from different directions, it
may be possible to stabilize the solution of Eq. (3)
to derive both ~ and a without assuming any
functional relationship between them.
Suppose that the isolated storm depicted by the
heavy lines (Fig. 7) is observed by radars R1 and R2
and the reflectivity factors ~ 1 1 , ~2 1 are measured by the
two radars at the grid points formed by the intersections
of the radial lines emanating from R1 and R2. The
unknowns are a and ~ at the grid points, and the
number of equations between ~ 1 1 , ~2 1 , and ~. a is
sufficient to determine the unknowns. The question of
the stability of the inversion of Eq. (3) must be
considered. It is clear that an upper limit on the
attenuation can be placed along certain radials, for
example, R 1 D and R 2 A. A lower limit to the attenua-
tion may also be determined at the grid points at
which ~ 1 1 f. ~2 1 • Intuitively, it would appear that if the
275
\OVER
I CORRECTION
I
I
I
I
\
\
\ UNDER
I
STORM
R2
FIG. 7. Deriving true reflectivity and attenuation
by dual radar measurements.
reflectivity factor is known along the boundary of the
(3) storm, it may be possible to determine ~and a through-
out the storm. It should be mentioned that liquid water
1
content may be deduced from the ~ and a (Atlas
•
and Ulbrich, 1974).
If dual wavelength measurements are made by R1
and R2, Eq. (3) is still applicable with r
being the
logarithm of the ratio of the measured reflectivity
factors, ~the logarithm of the ratio of the reflectivity
factors and a the differential attenuation between
the two wavelengths. Hence the problem of determin-
ing the ratio of reflectivities and the differential
attenuation is equivalent to the problem already
discussed.
A detailed consideration of the accuracy and stability
of inversion of Eq. (3) is required to determine the
tions. Other factors that need to be considered are
the effects of time variations of radar reflectivity during
the radar scans, and the effects of the different pulse
volumes of the radars in regions of high gradients of
radar reflectivity.
7. Hail detection: polarization methods
Most meteorological radars transmit polarized radia-
tion. The scattered radiation is depolarized if aniso-
tropic scatterers are involved. The ratio of the
orthogonal to the main component of the back-
scattered radiation is referred to as the depolarization
ratio. For linearly polarized radiation, the main
component has the same polarization as that trans-
mitted, the orthogonal component being perpendicular
to it. For circularly polarized radiation, the main
component is circularly polarized with the opposite
sense of rotation to that transmitted, while the
orthogonal component is circularly polarized with the
same sense of rotation.
276 PART III: INSTRUMENTS

0 OBLATES PROLATES 100 orientations. It is clear that asphericity may be

detected by measurement of depolarization.
:::=WATER Large hail is usually aspherical. Large raindrops are
5 also aspherical and may be approximated by ellipsoids
whose eccentricity is a function of the raindrop mass
(Pruppacher and Pitter 1971). Barge computed the
depolarization for observed size distributions of rain
and hail (the shape of the hail was also observed) and
concluded that most hail should be distinguishable
from rain by virtue of greater depolarization. Hail
" detection by polarization methods was also mentioned
0::: "
0 by Gershenzon and Shupiatskii (1961). Sustained
0:::
0 investigations have been carried out at McGill Uni-
u 20 versity in Canada.
Results of measurements in several Alberta storms
are shown in Figure 9 which is a combination of figures
25 in Barge and Humphries (1974). The full line represents
the depolarization to be expected from rain having
a Marshall-Palmer size distribution. The experimental
points give the measured Z and the depolarization at
an antenna elevation angle of 1o to 2°. The notation
indicates rain (R), shot hail (H, D < 0.5 em), or hail
FIG. 8. Circular and linear depolarization ratios (CDR and LDR) (H, D > 0.5 em) based on ground observations. It is
for ellipsoids with random and preferred orientations (after Barge,
1972). seen that rain often produces greater depolarization
than theoretically computed, and therefore depolariza-
tion by itself is not a sufficient criterion for hail. Barge
Calculations of the depolarization ratio were made by suggested that a combination of CDR and Z may
Atlas et al. (1953) using the Rayleigh Gans theory. be used to diagnose hail, since most of the points lying
Fig. 8 taken from Barge (1972) shows computed above and to the right of the dotted curve correspond
depolarizations for circular (CDR) and linear (LDR) to hail.
polarizations for ellipsoids with preferred and random The occurrence of rain above the solid curve was

5
R ··. H H

® ·············.....
10
®R R RrHl R
·.• H
R··... H R H J:t. H
RH
H Ht.i-fi H
H
H
··.HH Q9 @ H A'if
RR1f
·... H
15 R
·· ... .•. ···••• .• •.. _,
@ @'l~ @ '"H"·· R H
R R R RRR RRRR R R ,.'R ··. HHH H HH
RR @ "- -._
R _, .
20 ....
R / "'
m
-o
R R
R
RR , "' ® H
I /
~ 25 /
/

a:: / "'
0 ,R "' H HAIL
u / R RAIN

, "' "' "'

30 ® SHOT HAIL

, "'
/
35~----~--~"'~------~-----L----~~----~----~------L-----~
ro ~ ~ ~ ro
REFLECTIVITY ( dBZ )
FIG. 9. Observed depolarization and reflectivities in Alberta hailstorms [after Barge (1972)
and Humphries (1974)].
R. C. SRIVASTAVA AND A. R. JAMESON 277

signal. These problems are the occurrence of hail signal

r--------,
60

...,.. !50 I
I
I patterns other than those anticipated by Eccles and
~-
u.,
1-N 40
Atlas on the basis of their simple hailstorm model. It is
~~ recommended that the feasibility of deducing multi-
30
ct: wavelength radar reflectivity factors and attenuations
20 by coordinated observations with different wavelength
..-------,- --., radars situated differently with respect to the storm be
-15[
u:- -20
r---------~~--------,
.________-;I__, investigated. Observations at 5 and 10 em wavelengths
0~
u - -25 1I ____ _ may be superior to observations at 3 and 10 em wave-
lengths for the detection of hail of diameter greater
-30
than 1.5-2 em.
,--------------
0

~
-5
,. "' "
"'
~ -10
,. ... "' "'
~-... -15 r"'
o..ID
~- -20
~---~1
1
--------L-----~~---
ii ~-1
-25 I
I Terr. Phys., 3, 108-119.
I
-30
- 3 sL---~~--~45~--~!50~---~~--~60~--~~~--~ro
RANGE ( km I
FIG. 10. Observed reflectivity factor (top), computed intrinsic
circular depolarization ratio (middle), and computed depolarization
ratio with propagation (bottom). Upper and lower limits of observa-
tion and calculation are indicated by dashed and full lines.
attributed by Barge to small hail which melted on
reaching the ground. Humphries gave a more plausible
explanation in terms of propagation effects. Circularly
polarized radiation transmitted through an assembly of
anisotropic particles is progressively depolarized, due
to differential phase shifts, so that the radiation incident
on a particle sufficiently inside the storm may not have
the polarization of the transmitted radiation. The
expected depolarizations due to rain (the local or
intrinsic depolarization) and that due to propagation as
computed by Humphries are shown in Figure 10. The
depolarization due to propagation can mask the local or
intrinsic depolarization.
Unless the depolarization due to propagation and
local effects can be separated, the method of hail
detection by measurement of circular depolarization
will remain of limited application. However, a
combination of Z and depolarization may still be of
some usefulness. Perhaps, the difference of reflectivity
measured at horizontal and vertical linear polarizations
may help to detect hail.
8. Concluding remarks
A review of the Eccles-Atlas dual-wavelength method
of hail detection, using 3.2 em and 10 em wavelengths,
has brought out problems of interpretation of the hail
REFERENCES
Atlas, D., 1964: Advances in radar meteorology. Advances in
Geophysics, Vol. 10, Academic Press, 317-478.
- - , M. Kerker, and W. Hitschfeld, 1953: Scattering and
attenuation by non-spherical atmospheric particles. J. Atmos.
- - , and C. W. Ulbrich, 1974: The physical basis for attenua-
tion-rainfall relationships and the measurement of rainfall
parameters by combined attenuation and radar methods. J.
Rech. Atmos., 8, 275-298.
Barge, B. L., 1972: Hail detection with a polarization diversity
radar. Sci. Rep. MW-71, Stormy Weather Group, McGill
University, 80 pp.
Battan, L. J., S. R. Browning and B. M. Herman, 1970: Tables
of the radar cross-sections of dry and wet ice spheres. Tech.
Rep. 21, Inst. Atmos. Phy., University of Arizona, 11 pp.
Carbone, R. E., D. Atlas, P. Eccles, R. Fetter and E. Mueller, 1973:
Dual wavelength radar hail detection. Bull. A mer. Meteor. Soc.,
54, 921-924.
Donaldson, R. J., Jr., 1961: Radar reflectivity profile in thunder-
storms. J. Meteor., 18, 292-305.
Eccles, P. J., 1973: Dual-wavelength observations of a hailstorm.
Pre prints 8th Conf Severe Local Storms, Denver, Amer.
Meteor. Soc., 52-56.
- - , and D. Atlas, 1973: A dual-wavelength radar hail detector.
J. Appl. Meteor., 12, 847-854.
Gershenzon, Yu. M., and A. B. Shupiatskii, 1961: Scattering of
elliptically polarized radio waves by non-spherical atmospheric
particles. Ts. Aero. Obser. Tr. No. 36, 102-108.
Hitschfeld, W., and J. Bordan, 1954: Errors inherent in the radar
measurement of rainfall at attenuating wavelengths. J. Meteor.,
11, 58-67.
Humphries, R. G., 1974: Depolarization effects at 3 GHz due to
precipitation. Sci. Rep. MW-82, Stormy Weather Group,
McGill University, 81 pp.
Jameson, A. R., 1975: Dual-wavelength Doppler radar observa-
tion of a hailstorm at vertical incidence. Preprints 16th Radar
Meteorology Conf., Houston, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 43-48.
--,and R. C. Srivastava, 1975: Vertical incidence radar observa-
tion of hail-implications for dual-wavelength hail detection.
Tech. Rep. No. 36, Laboratory for Atmospheric Probing,
University of Chicago, 39 pp.
Pruppacher, H. R., and R. L. Pitter, 1971: A semi-empirical
determination of the shape of cloud and raindrops. J. Atmos.
Sci., 28, 86-94.
Sulakvelidze, G. K., N. Sh. Bibilashvili and V. F. Lapcheva, 1965:
Formation of precipitation and modification of hail processes.
[Israel Program for Scientific Translations, 208 pp.]
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