Overview of SOQRATES

IOOC Offshore QRA Training Course : 14th – 18th November 2009

Brian Bain
 SOQRATES
Standardised
Offshore
Quantitative
Risk
Analysis
Total
Evaluation
System

Overview of SOQRATES

© Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved. 2

 A Brief History of SOQRATES
ƒ While Neptune was DNVs preferred system for performing QRAs, it was complex to operate
and some offices requested a simpler system.
ƒ First put together in a one week workshop in Kuala Lumpur in November 2002 to produce a
basic model.
ƒ Some improvements to get first working model
ƒ Used for About 10 QRA’s in Kuala Lumpur and Shanghai
ƒ Training Course/Workshop in KL May 2005 - Improvements made
ƒ Adopted as basis of QRAs for Sevan Marine FPSOs – Further Development (Marine Hazards,
Asset Damage, Loss of Production, EER)
ƒ Used for BP Lan Tay Project in Kuala Lumpur – Further Development (F-N curves)
ƒ September 2006 – SOQRATES proposed for development as standard DNV approach to
offshore QRA using spreadsheets as alternative to Neptune.
ƒ 2007-2009 – Further enhancements to meet the needs of specific projects. SOQRATES now
preferred to Neptune for new projects.

Overview of SOQRATES

© Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved. 3

 Data and Result File Transfer

Installation Installation Installation

Data#1 Data#2 Data#3

LEAK LEAK QRAData Generic Generic

Data#1 Data Data Data#1

SOQRATES Generic
LEAK
Analysis Engine Data#2
Data#2

QRAResults

Results#1 Results#2 Results#3

Overview of SOQRATES

© Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved. 4

 Overall Data Flow
External
Consequence Standardised
SOQRATES_Control Modelling Offshore
Macros
Quantitative
Risk
Installation Installation Installation
Input Data Analysis
LEAK LEAK Results Generic Data File Total
Specific Data Specific Data ...... Specific Data
Evaluation
File 1 File 2 File n
System
Frequency
Analysis

RiserLeakFreqCalc Blowoutfreq PartsCount QRAData

Macros

VolumeCalc
GenericData
LeakFrequencies

Release Analysis Fire Analysis Explosion Analysis Ignition Modelling Smoke/Gas Ingress Analysis
EER Analysis

Ignition
NOBRA_
ReleaseAnalysis FireAnalysis Rescue&Recovery
Macros BatchRunner or Macros
Macros Macros S&GAnalysis
IgnitionTDIIM Macros
Macros

or
EERFatRates
NOBRA UKOOAIgnition Macros

DataConsolidation

TRImpCalc

MainAnalysis
NonProcFires ShipCol StructuralFailure Macros
Macros
COTFires MooringFailure

HeliCrash StabilityReduction
EquipmentFires
Macros
OccRisks Transport
FNAnalysis QRAResults

Macro Link
Results File 1 Results File 2 ...... Results File n

Overview of SOQRATES

© Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved. 5

 Alternative Paths
ƒ SOQRATES offers alternative means of Run Options
Release Modelling Type 1
carrying out the some parts of the analysis,
Ignition UKOOA
e.g. Ignitions, Explosions, location of
frequency data etc. Explosion NOBRA/Express

ƒ The DataConsolidation Workbook is Use Topside Leak Frequencies From LEAK

Software
Yes
instrumental in selecting the source of the
Use Riser Leak Frequencies From Built in Analysis Yes
appropriate data
Use Release Rates From LEAK No

Calculate Inventories Yes

Calculate Radiation Areas No

Calculate Evacuation Fatality Rates Yes

Calculate Impairment Probabilities Yes

Calculate Asset Damage No

Calculate Lost Production Cost No

Calculate Rescue and Recovery Fatality Rates No

Overview of SOQRATES

© Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved. 6

 Colour Coding System

Data

Linked to cell in same workbook

Calculated value

Linked to cell in different workbook

Values written by VBA macros

Dummy Data (to keep model happy)

Overview of SOQRATES

© Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved. 7

 Limitations
ƒ 100 hydrocarbon release cases
ƒ 3 hole sizes
ƒ 10 worker categories
ƒ 2 “special” areas (TR and LQ) plus 20 other areas
ƒ 20 risers
ƒ 100 vessels

Overview of SOQRATES

© Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved. 8

 Installation Data Structure
ƒ Installation Workbooks contain numerous worksheets covering all aspects of the
analysis.
ƒ Not all the worksheets need to be completed – this is dependant on the selections in
run options.
ƒ There is no data to be entered into the workbooks comprising the model itself.
ƒ Completing a SOQRATES study effectively involves the correct completion of the
data workbook.
ƒ Other programmes may be need to calculate input data to SOQRATES or to allow
the analyst to make an informed judgement.
ƒ Topside process leak frequencies are normally calculated in LEAK and transferred
automatically into the analysis.

Overview of SOQRATES

© Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved. 9

 Hydrocarbon Events Naming System
Platform Code : XYZ

LQ XYZ/A3/S4/G

A3
S4

TR
XYZ/A1/S4/G
XYZ/A1/S2/G XYZ/A2/S4/G

A1
S2

XYZ/A1/S1/W
S3

A2
XYZ/A1/S2/O
S1
S5 S6

Overview of SOQRATES

© Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved. 10

 Specification of Events
Data

Event No. Event Name Area Segment Fluid Type Failure cases modelled
1 RI/PM/SEP1/W PM SEP1 Well Fluids Process Inlet 1st Stage Separator to Interstage Heaters (Liq Phase)
2 RI/PM/SEP1/G PM SEP1 Gas Process Upstream 1st Stage Separator (Gas Phase)
3 RI/PM/HEATEX/O PM HEATEX Oil Process Inlet Interstage Heaters to 2nd Stage Separators (Liq Phase)
4 RI/PM/SEP2/O PM SEP2 Oil Process Inlet 2nd Stage Separator to Crude Oil Storage (Liq Phase) - Including Oil Transfer Pumps and Oil Coolers
5 RI/PM/SEP2/G PM SEP2 Gas Process Upstream 2nd Stage Separator (Gas Phase)
6 RI/PM/HPKODRUM/G PM HPKODRUM Gas Process HP Flare Gas KO Vessel (Gas Phase)
7 RI/MD/LPKODRUM/G MD LPKODRUM Gas Process LP Flare Gas KO Vessel (Gas Phase)
8 RI/MD/OFFLOAD/O MD OFFLOAD Oil Process Export Line & Offloading Hose (Liq Phase)
9 RI/MD/INLETFL/W MD INLETFL Well Fluids Process Inlet flowlines (Liq Phase)
10 RI/MD/IMPRISER/W MD IMPRISER Well Fluids Riser Production Flowlines at Main Deck
11 RI/SZ/IMPRISER/W SZ IMPRISER Well Fluids Riser Production flowlines at Splash Zone
12 RI/SS/IMPRISER/W SS IMPRISER Well Fluids Riser Production Flowlines Subsea
13 Not Used
14 Not Used
15 Not Used
16 Not Used

“Calculated” Values
Segment Code
Platform Code
ppp/aaa/sss/f

Area Code Material Code

Overview of SOQRATES

© Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved. 11

 Process Flow Diagrams
ƒ Early in the project it is advisable to produce a process flow diagram.
ƒ This should show;
- Vessels, pumps and compressors
- Pipelines & risers
- Primary pipework
- Isolation values
- Boundaries between areas
- Event names
- Pressures and Temperatures (if not too complex)

ƒ Example of a QRA PFD (not SOQRATES)

Overview of SOQRATES

© Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved. 12

 Areas

Association Data

Source Area
ER PR MD PD FC UL PM SZ SS Not Used Not Used Not Used Not Used Not Used Not Used
ER I A O O O O O O O
PR A I O O O O O O O
MD O O I O A A A O O
PD O O O I O O O O O
FC O O A O I O O A O
UL O O A O O I A O O
Target Area

PM O O A O O A I O O
SZ O O O O A O O I A
SS O O O O O O O A I
Not Used I
Not Used I
Not Used I
Not Used I
Not Used I
Not Used I

I Denotes the area of origin

A Denotes areas that are adjacent to the area of origin
O Denotes areas that are not adjacent to the area of the incident

Overview of SOQRATES

© Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved. 13

 Manning Data

Hours Spent in Each Area

Days on
Platform for
Personnel Group No. of Workers TR LQ ER PR Total Manning Factor Hours Off-Shift Job Function
Management 6 21.86 0.00 0.50 0.20 24.0 0.5 12.0 365.25
Production 5 18.24 0.00 0.00 0.00 24.0 0.5 12.0 365.25
Maintenance 4 12.15 0.00 9.60 0.36 24.0 0.5 12.0 365.25
Marine/Deck 5 14.6 0.00 0.00 0.84 24.0 0.5 12.0 365.25
Catering 3 24.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 24.0 0.5 12.0 365.25
Not Used 0.5 12.0 365.25
Not Used
Not Used
Not Used
Not Used
Total in Area 23 17.3 0.00 1.73 0.29
Probability of Leaving Area Prior to Ignition N/A N/A 0.5 0.5
Probability of Leaving Area Prior to Radiation N/A N/A 1 1

Overview of SOQRATES

© Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved. 14

 Generic Data
ƒ Some items of data are regarded as standard and can be applied to all studies.
ƒ Physical constants
ƒ Historic Failure Frequency Data
ƒ Derived correlations

Overview of SOQRATES

© Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved. 15

 Physical Constants

Ambient Pressure (bar) 1

Discharge Coefficient 0.8
2
Gravitational Acceleration (m/sec ) 9.81
3
Density of Water (Kg/m ) 1000
2
Pool Fire Burn Rate (Kg/m /sec) 0.05
3
Air Density (Kg/m ) 1.2
Universal Gas Constant (J/mol/K) 8314.4
Oxygen content in air 20.90%
Molecular weight of air (kg/kmol) 28.966
Heat capacity of air inside TR (J/mol.K) 1004

Release Limiting Flow (kg/s) 0.01

Considered better to have these as items of data rather than “hard-wired”
into spreadsheet cell formulae

Overview of SOQRATES

© Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved. 16

 Blowout Data
Frequency
Operation Category Average Gas Oil Unit Fraction Fraction
Diverted Subsea
Exploration drilling, Topside 1.26E-03 per well 0.47 0
shallow gas Subsea 8.2E-04 per well 0 1
Total 2.08E-03 per well
Wildcat drilling, shallow Topside 1.37E-03 per well 0.47 0
gas Subsea 8.90E-04 per well 0 1
Total 2.26E-03 per well
Appraisal drilling, shallow Topside 1.08E-03 per well 0.47 0
gas Subsea 6.90E-04 per well 0 1
Total 1.77E-03 per well
Development Drilling, Topside 1.29E-03 per well 0.47 0
shallow gas Subsea 8.30E-04 per well 0 1
Total 2.12E-03 per well
Exploration Drilling, deep Blowout 2.90E-04 3.10E-04 2.80E-04 per well 0.39
(normal wells) Well Release 2.30E-03 2.40E-03 2.10E-03 per well 0.39
Total 2.59E-03 2.7E-03 2.4E-03 per well
Exploration Drilling, deep Blowout 1.80E-03 1.90E-03 1.70E-03 per well 0.39
(HPHT wells) Well Release 1.40E-02 1.50E-02 1.30E-02 per well 0.39
Total 1.58E-02 1.7E-02 1.5E-02 per well
Wildcat drilling, deep Blowout 2.60E-04 2.7E-04 2.5E-04 per well 0.39
(normal wells) Well Release 2.00E-03 2.1E-03 1.9E-03 per well 0.39
Total 2.26E-03 2.4E-03 2.2E-03 per well
Wildcat drilling, deep Blowout 1.60E-03 1.7E-03 1.5E-03 per well 0.39
(HPHT wells) Well Release 1.30E-02 1.3E-02 1.2E-02 per well 0.39
Total 1.46E-02 1.5E-02 1.4E-02 per well

Data obtained from SINTEF/Scandpower reports

Overview of SOQRATES

© Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved. 17

 Riser Leak Frequency
Leak Frequency

Generic frequency (per riser year) Steel - diameter ≤ 16” 9.10E-04

Steel - diameter ≥ 16” 1.20E-04
Flexible 6.00E-03
Ref: Riser Leak Frequencies, ARF TN7 (Table 1)

Location Distribution

Location Ratio
Above sea level 0.2
Splash zone 0.5
Subsea 0.3
Ref: Riser leak location, ARF TN7 (Table 4)

Hole Size Distribution

Hole Size Ratio

Small (< 20 mm) 0.6
Medium (20 - 80 mm) 0.15
Large (>= 80 mm) 0.25
Ref: Hole size distribution, ARF TN7 (Table 3)

Failures by Mechanism

Steel Pipelines
(Within Platform
Safety Zone)
Steel Risers
Mechanism No. Releases No. Releases
Corrosion 5 23
Impact/Anchor 0.35 0
Material defect 2 6
Natural hazard 0.35 0.7
Others 5 7
Ref: Leak Causes, PARLOC 2001 (Table 4-2)

Data From PARLOC 2001

Overview of SOQRATES

© Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved. 18

 Riser Failure Frequency Modification Factors
Condition Modification Factor
Warm sea 1.25
Monel cladding 0.9
Monel sleeve 0.2
External Inconel 625 overlay 0.1

Duplex stainless steel riser (when service permits) 0.2

Age 4-20 years ("bath-tub" effect) 0.5
Riser clamps in splash zone 1.1
Corrosion Risers in water filled concrete legs 1.5
Design factor 0.3 instead of 0.6 0.8
Magnetic inspection 0.4
Ultrasonic inspection 0.2
Manual inspection 0.6
Sleeving 1.1
Wet CO2 present, carbon steel 1.5
Wet CO2 present, duplex pipe 1
Intelligent pigging 0.5
Outside jacket 2
Just inside jacket 0.5
Riser Position
Well inside jacket 0.1
Inside leg 0.1
Fenders 0.5
Barriers Sleeving 0.8
None 1
Landing position on same side as riser 1.5
Supply boats/standby Restricted operations in bad wether, defined
vessels vessel no go areas agreed operational approach
procedures 0.8
Riser within crane reach 1.1
Crane Agreed lifting procedures, equipment standards,
Impact
training 0.95
Shipping lane within 5km of platform 1.1
Passing shipping
No significant merchant shipping 0.9
Exposed 4
Trenched 4
Pipelines <16" diameter <1m burial 2
1-2m burial 1
>2m burial 0.4
Exposed 2
Trenched 2
Pipelines >= 16" in diameter <1m burial 1
1-2m burial 0.5
>2m burial 0.2

Overview of SOQRATES

© Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved. 19

 Ignition Model Coefficients

UKOOA Model Description Model Code maxp minp pointa grada offseta pointb gradb offsetb pointc gradc offsetc pointd
Offshore Process Liquid UKOOA - Proc Liq 0.0175 0.001 0.1 0.400548 -2.55806 100 N N 0 N N 0
Offshore Process Liquid NUI UKOOA - Proc Liq NUI 0.01 0.001 0.1 0.400548 -2.55806 100 N N 0 N N 0
Offshore Process Gas Opendeck NUI UKOOA - Proc Gas open NUI 0.025 0.001 0.1 0.037789 -2.92082 1 0.880788 -2.92082 30 N N 0
Offshore Process Gas Typical UKOOA - Proc Gas 0.04 0.001 0.1 0.768182 -2.19042 3 0.390377 -2.01017 10 N N 0
Offshore Process Gas Large Module UKOOA - Proc Gas Large Mod 0.05 0.001 0.1 0.845058 -2.11355 5 0.285097 -1.72215 30 N N 0
Offshore Process Gas Congested or Mechanical Vented Module UKOOA - Proc Gas Cong 0.04 0.001 0.1 1.134699 -1.82391 1 0.216588 -1.82391 50 N N 0
Offshore Riser UKOOA - Riser 0.025 0.001 0.1 0.525219 -2.43339 30 N N 0 N N 0
Offshore FPSO Gas UKOOA - FPSO Gas 0.15 0.001 0.1 0.072551 -2.88606 1 1.213764 -2.88606 50 N N 0
Offshore FPSO Gas Wall UKOOA - FPSO Gas Wall 0.15 0.001 0.1 0.544175 -2.41443 0.3 1.231261 -2.05517 10 N N 0
Offshore FPSO Liquid UKOOA - FPSO Liq 0.028 0.001 0.1 0.468588 -2.49002 100 N N 0 N N 0
Offshore Engulf - blowout riser UKOOA - Blowout 0.1 0.001 0.1 0.652869 -2.305738 100 N N 0 N N 0

For data refer to UKOOA Ignition Modelling Phase II Report

Overview of SOQRATES

© Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved. 20

 TEMPSC Failure Data
Calm Moderate Severe
Total craft not used Total craft fails Total craft not used Total craft fails Total craft not used Total craft fails
or launched early during launch or launched early during launch or launched early during launch
TEMPSC Type
Davit With PROD 0.0160 0.0470 0.0160 0.0609 0.0160 0.1826
Davit With 0-3 m Clearance 0.0160 0.0336 0.0160 0.6795 0.0160 0.8473
Davit With 3-5 m Clearance 0.0160 0.0336 0.0160 0.2546 0.0160 0.5945
Davit With 5-7 m Clearance 0.0160 0.0088 0.0160 0.0965 0.0160 0.3512
Davit With 7-10 m Clearance 0.0160 0.0088 0.0160 0.0721 0.0160 0.2617
Davit With >10 m Clearance 0.0160 0.0088 0.0160 0.0232 0.0160 0.1498
Skid Fall 0.0839 0.0298 0.0839 0.0298 0.0839 0.0298
Vertical Drop 0.0561 0.0060 0.0561 0.0060 0.0561 0.0060

Failure Probabilities for Davit Launched Lifeboats with PROD

Failure Mode Calm Moderate Severe

Craft not use 0.014 0.014 0.014
Launched early 0.002 0.002 0.002
Winch brake seizes 0.002 0.002 0.002
Uncontrolled descent 0.0004 0.0004 0.0004
Bow wire/schakles break 0.002 0.002 0.002
Wires too short 0.002 0.002 0.002
Waves damage craft 0 0 0.05
Falls wire/schackles break 0.002 0.002 0.002
Hydraulic hinge on boom fails 0.02 0.02 0.02
Falls not released 0.0004 0.015 0.14
Falls not released adjusted 0.0004 0.015 0.05
Propulsion failure 0.002 0.002 0.002
Craft hits structure 0 0 0.05
Failure to release bow line 0.017 0.017 0.017
Pre-Lauch Failure 0.0160 0.0160 0.0160
Launch/Post-Launch Failure 0.0470 0.0609 0.1826

Overview of SOQRATES

© Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved. 21

 Smoke Dilution Data
Smoke Dilution Data
Based on PHAST v6.53 analysis of dispersion of Nitogen in Air with Wid Class 5/F
Release Rate (kg/s)
Distance (m) 0.01 Kg/s 0.1 Kg/s 0.3 Kg/s 1 Kg/s 3 Kg/s 10 Kg/s 30 Kg/s 100 Kg/s 300 Kg/s 1000 Kg/s
0 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000
0.5 0.2993 0.4788 0.6098 0.7046 0.8015 0.9127 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000
1 0.1746 0.2493 0.3973 0.5545 0.6564 0.7609 0.8713 0.9852 1.0000 1.0000
1.5 0.1229 0.1581 0.2814 0.4431 0.5684 0.6693 0.7718 0.9010 1.0000 1.0000
2 0.0905 0.1045 0.2060 0.3595 0.4942 0.6133 0.7023 0.8314 0.9519 1.0000
3 0.0606 0.0613 0.1224 0.2413 0.3830 0.5218 0.6152 0.7230 0.8507 0.9926
5 0.0324 0.0278 0.0622 0.1345 0.2350 0.3784 0.5040 0.6057 0.7053 0.8582
7 0.0225 0.0176 0.0366 0.0814 0.1622 0.2873 0.4128 0.5341 0.6241 0.7550
10 0.0139 0.0106 0.0229 0.0507 0.1052 0.1935 0.3150 0.4462 0.5468 0.6494
15 0.0084 0.0061 0.0130 0.0284 0.0582 0.1177 0.2088 0.3380 0.4541 0.5589
20 0.0059 0.0042 0.0089 0.0194 0.0394 0.0796 0.1484 0.2721 0.3823 0.4962
30 0.0037 0.0024 0.0052 0.0112 0.0222 0.0452 0.0873 0.1793 0.2769 0.3991
50 0.0024 0.0014 0.0028 0.0061 0.0118 0.0241 0.0460 0.0903 0.1588 0.2724
70 0.0018 0.0011 0.0017 0.0038 0.0074 0.0150 0.0281 0.0559 0.1032 0.1960
100 0.0012 0.0009 0.0011 0.0025 0.0049 0.0097 0.0181 0.0354 0.0666 0.1247
Smoke Dilution Curves
150 0.0008 0.0007 0.0007 0.0014 0.0028 0.0056 0.0103 0.0201 0.0364 0.0742
200 0.0006 0.0006 0.0006 0.0010 0.0020 0.0040 0.0074 0.0139 0.0330 0.0683
300 0.0003 0.0004 0.0005 0.0005 0.0011 0.0023 1.0000
0.0043 0.0095 0.0277 0.0603
400 0.0002 0.0003 0.0004 0.0004 0.0007 0.0016 0.0034 0.0082 0.0238 0.0541 0.01 Kg/s
0.1 Kg/s
0.1000 0.3 Kg/s

Dilution Factor
Derived from PHAST Analysis 1 Kg/s
3 Kg/s
0.0100
10 Kg/s
30 Kg/s
0.0010 100 Kg/s
300 Kg/s
1000 Kg/s
0.0001
1 10 100 1000
Distance (m)

Overview of SOQRATES

© Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved. 22

 Advantages
ƒ Runs in Excel – readily available
ƒ Sufficiently flexible for all installation types
ƒ All data contained separately from analysis
ƒ Consistent approach across all DNV offices
ƒ Large (and growing) user group
ƒ Allows DNV to focus it’s improvements on a single spreadsheet based tool
ƒ Removes expense of offices developing there own methodologies

Overview of SOQRATES

© Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved. 23

 WARNINGS!
ƒ The quality of the results are only as good as the quality of the data you put in. So it
is important to obtain accurate information for the installation being analysed
ƒ Just because it gives you a result doesn’t mean it’s correct!
ƒ The analyst still needs to “dig in” to model to understand what’s driving the risk. If
you don’t do that you can’t establish the drivers behind the risks.

Overview of SOQRATES

© Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved. 24

 Safeguarding life, property
and the environment

www.dnv.com

Overview of SOQRATES

© Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved. 25