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The market for long term securities like bonds, equity stocks and
preferred stocks is divided into primary market and secondary market.
Primary market deals with the new issues of securities. Outstanding
securities are traded in the secondary market, which is commonly known
as stock market or stock exchange. In the secondary market, the investors
can sell or buy securities. Stock markets predominantly deal in the equity
shares. Well regulated and active stock market promotes capital
formation. The health of the economy is reflected by the growth of the
stock market. Stock broking is a growing industry in India. The main
reason is that Indian economy is one of the strongest in the world. As a
result of that both foreign and domestic investors are interested in
investing in Indian stock market.
1
selected are NTPC, RELIANCE, POWERGRID, NHPC, TATAPOWER
and ADANI POWER.
Security analysis
2
An examination and evaluation of the various factors affecting the
value of a security is known as Security analysis. Security analysis
refers to the analysis of tradable financial instruments. Financial
instruments can be classified into debt securities, equities, or some
hybrid of the two, futures contracts and tradable credit derivatives
are sometimes included. Security analysis is typically divided into
fundamental analysis, which relies upon the examination of
fundamental business factors such as financial statements, and
technical analysis, which focuses upon price trends and momentum
3
for deciding entry and exit points. Many technical investors use
fundamentals to limit their universe of possible stock to 'good' companies
Fundamental analysis
objectives:
4
To conduct a company stock valuation and predict its probable
price evolution,
5
demand and supply forces are in turn influenced by a number of
fundamental factors as well as certain psychological and emotional
factors. The combined impact of all these factors is reflected in the share
price movement. The technical analysis therefore concentrates on the
movement of share price. Technical analysis is the name given to
forecasting techniques that utilize historical share price data.
Line Chart
Bar Chart
Aber John(1976) in his study found that numerous empirical studies have
tested the profitability of technical trading rules in a variety of markets
6
for the purpose of either uncovering profitable trading rules or testing
market efficiency, or both. The technical trading studies simulated only
one or two trading systems. In these studies, although transaction costs
were deducted to compute net returns of technical trading strategies, risk
was not adequately handled, statistical tests of trading profits and data
snooping problems were often disregarded, and out-of-sample
verification along with parameter (trading rule) optimization were not
considered in the testing procedure.
Goodman and John W Peavy (1983) in their study found that there is no
way of making an expected profit by extrapolating past changes in the
futures price, by chart or any other esoteric devices of magic or
mathematics. The market quotation already contains in itself all that can
be known about the future and in that
sense has discounted future contingencies as much as is humanly
possible.
Brown and David P (1989) in their article explained that results provide
evidence for a “predictive information link” between non-earnings
numbers and future earnings changes. They indicate that some non-
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earnings numbers do contain information useful for predicting future
earnings changes that is not contained in either past or current earnings.
Edward (1992) found that also extends her test to include a “valuation
link” between the predicted future earnings changes and stock returns
during the annual report dissemination period. She finds evidence that
this valuation link does exist. The non-earnings accounting numbers are
therefore useful for predicting both future earnings and returns.
Hackel and Kenneth S (1996)found that it has been stated that “the task
of research is to discover what information projects future earnings and,
from a financial statement analysis point of view, what information in the
financial statements does this”
8
of a firm and supports the use of capital expenditures for predicting future
earnings or returns.
Palepu and Krishna (2004) found that technical analysis has been
extensively used among market participants such as brokers, dealers, fund
managers, speculators, and individual investors in the financial industry.
3 Numerous surveys indicate that practitioners attribute a significant role
to technical analysis. For example, futures fund managers rely heavily on
computer-guided technical trading systems, and about 30% to 40% of
foreign exchange traders around the world believe that technical analysis
is the major factor determining exchange rates in the short-run up to six
months.
9
cultural influences. But markets are social institutions. They "organize
and guide human social behavior through sanctions (formal and informal,
negative and positive), mores, norms, status, and shared worldviews".
Consequently, explaining economic exchange requires an understanding
of the behavior associated with the subculture of those in question.
10
Ran Canetti & IBM Research (2008) explained that Composable Formal
Security Analysis, a security property of a protocol is composable if it
remains intact even when the protocol runs alongside other protocols in
the same system. We describe a method for asserting composable security
properties, and demonstrate its usefulness. In particular, we show how
this method can be used to provide security analysis that is formal,
relatively simple, and still does not make un-justified abstractions of the
underlying cryptographic algorithms in use. It can also greatly enhance
the feasibility of automated security analysis of systems of realistic size.
Prasanna Chandra (2008) in his study he explained that Motivated by an
obvious gap between the widespread use of Bloomberg terminals in the
finance industry and the scant resources available to an instructor on how
to incorporate the available information through the terminal into a
finance course, we illustrate our experience using the terminal in an
equity-focused security analysis and portfolio management course. Our
goal is to enable students inexperienced with the terminal to prepare an
analyst report. We identify the most significant challenges we face and
provide the corresponding solutions. Our results are also applicable to
other finance courses including financial analysis, investments, and
student managed investment fund.
11
• To study fundamental and technical analysis of securities in the
power sector.
1.3.4 LIMITATIONS
12
• Data considered only for past few months.
• Indian capital market is featured by the weak form of efficient
market hypothesis.
• The research will be confined to only 7 securities in the power
sector.
13
2.1 INDUSTRY PROFILE
Capital Market
The market where investment funds like bonds, equities and
mortgages are traded is known as the capital market. The primal role of
the capital market is to channelize investments from investors who have
surplus funds to the ones who are running a deficit. The capital market
offers both long term and overnight funds. The financial instruments that
have short or medium term maturity periods are dealt in the money
market whereas the financial instruments that have long maturity periods
are dealt in the capital market. The different types of financial
instruments that are traded in the capital markets are equity instruments,
credit market instruments, insurance instruments, foreign exchange
instruments, hybrid instruments and derivative instruments.
A capital market is a market for securities (both debt and equity),
where business enterprises (companies) and governments can raise long-
term funds. It is defined as a market in which money is lent for periods
longer than a year, as the raising of short-term funds takes place on other
markets (e.g., the money market). The capital market includes the stock
market (equity securities) and the bond market (debt).
1 Primary market
2 Secondary markets
14
Primary market
The primary market is that part of the capital markets that deals with
the issuance of new securities. Companies, governments or public
sector institutions can obtain funding through the sale of a new
stock or bond issue. This is typically done through a syndicate of
securities dealers. The process of selling new issues to investors
is called underwriting. In the case of a new stock issue, this sale is
an initial public offering (IPO). Dealers earn a commission that is
built into the price of the security offering, though it can be found
in the prospectus.
The primary markets are where new stock and bonds issues are sold
(via underwriting) to investors. The secondary markets are
where existing securities are sold and bought from one investor
or trader to another, usually on a securities exchange, over the
counter, or elsewhere.
• This is the market for new long term equity capital. The primary
market is the market where the securities are sold for the first time.
Therefore it is also called the new issue market (NIM).
• In a primary issue, the securities are issued by the company
directly to investors.
• The company receives the money and issues new security
certificates to the investors.
• Primary issues are used by companies for the purpose of setting up
new business or for expanding or modernizing the existing
business.
15
• The primary market performs the crucial function of facilitating
capital formation in the economy.
• The new issue market does not include certain other sources of new
long term external finance, such as loans from financial
institutions. Borrowers in the new issue market may be raising
capital for converting private capital into public capital; this is
known as "going public."
• The financial assets sold can only be redeemed by the original
holder.
16
shareholders' money in exchange for shares, a rights issue is a
source of capital.
Secondary market
17
corporations issuing shares in an IPO or private placement, or directly
from the federal government in the case of treasuries.
18
circumstances) with the capital user's preference to be able to use the
capital for an extended period of time
Stock Exchanges
19
electronic networks, which gives them advantages of speed and
cost of transactions. Trade on an exchange is by members only.
The initial offering of stocks and bonds to investors is by
definition done in the primary market and subsequent trading is
done in the secondary market. A stock exchange is often the
most important component of a stock market. Supply and
demand in stock markets are driven by various factors which, as
in all free markets, affect the price of stocks (see stock
valuation).
20
stock exchanges protect the interests of both buyers and sellers
by assuring a timely transfer of money. The participants of a stock
market are required to operate within the specified transaction
limits fixed by the regulatory authority of that stock market
Speed and transparency are vital for all stock market
transactions. The companies listed in a stock exchange need to
provide proper guidance regarding business performance and
prospects, mergers and acquisitions, stock prices, dividends and
other information at all times. Investors make their investment
decisions based on the information obtained from these
companies, and the comments of analysts who track those
companies.
21
beginning of October 2008. The total world derivatives market
has been estimated at about $791 trillion face or nominal value,
11 times the size of the entire world economy. The value of the
derivatives market, because it is stated in terms of notional
values, cannot be directly compared to a stock or a fixed income
security, which traditionally refers to an actual value. Moreover,
the vast majority of derivatives 'cancel' each other out (i.e., a
derivative 'bet' on an event occurring is offset by a comparable
derivative 'bet' on the event not occurring.). Many such relatively
illiquid securities are valued as marked to model, rather than an
actual market price.
The stocks are listed and traded on stock exchanges which are
entities of a corporation or mutual organization specialized in the
business of bringing buyers and sellers of the organizations to a
listing of stocks and securities together
22
Discretionary dealing, where the stockbroker ascertains the
client's investment objectives and then makes all dealing
decisions on the client's behalf
23
Services, Institutional Equities, Private Equity, Investment Banking
Services and Principal Strategies.
Company have a diversified client base that includes retail
customers (including High Net worth Individuals), mutual funds, foreign
institutional investors, financial institutions and corporate clients.
company headquartered in Mumbai and as of June 30th, 2009, had a
network spread over 555 cities and towns comprising 1,308 Business
Locations .at June 30th, 2009, company had 5,57,373 registered
customers.
In 2006, the Company placed 9.48% of its equity with two leading
private equity investors based out of the US – New Vernon Private
Equity Limited and Bessemer Venture Partners. The company got listed
on BSE and NSE on September 9, 2007. The issue which was priced at
Rs.825 per share (face value Rs.5 per share) got an overwhelming
response and was subscribed 27.18 times in turbulent market conditions.
The issue gave a return of 21% on the date of listing. As of end of
financial year 2008, the group net worth was Rs.7 bn and market
capitalization as of March 31, 2008 was Rs.19 bn.
Credit rating agency Crisil has assigned the highest rating of P1+ to
the Company’s short-term debt program.
Mission of company
To be the most respected and preferred private equity manager in the mid
size corporate segment
Equity
24
In keeping with its tradition of personalized service, Motilal Oswal
Securities Limited provides Customized Equity Advisory Group to
clients based on their profile. Equity Research is an inherent strength of
MOSt. Converting that research to advice is the main function of Equity
Advisory. The investment ideas identified by the research team are
presented and communicated with conviction to clients by advisory team.
MOSt Equity Advisor proactively helps you take informed equity
investment decisions and build a healthy portfolio giving the best fit to
your investment and trading needs.
Derivatives
Futures & options are derivatives, which use equity as their
underlying. Hence Equity Advisory Group (EAG) will also act as
advisors for F&O & help take informed decisions while trading in these
derivative instruments. Since derivatives instrument provide good
leverage opportunity, it is a great tool for speculation. Leverage is a
double edge sword for which one requires an equity advisor. The advisors
will also help with various strategies like Bull Spread, Bear Spread,
Cover call writing, hedging strategies etc. This is to help to make better
trading returns. Portfolio management
Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd brings with more than 2 decades of
experience & expertise in equity research and stock broking. Motilal
Oswal Securities Ltd is one of the leading portfolio service providers,
with asset under management worth Rs. 590 Crores.
Online trading
Clients trade online through “MyBroker platform”. Broker with
complete research support from MOSL which helps the clients to make
right decision at right time. They can choose trading a/c which suits their
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trading habit’s & preference and trade anywhere, anytime. Buying and
selling is as easy as click of a button.
Key Features:
Single platform for multiple exchange BSE & NSE (Cash & F&O),
Mutual funds
Mutual funds offer the ideal platform to participate in the Equity &
Debt market indirectly through professional management. Mutual funds
are becoming the most popular investment vehicles offering various kinds
of schemes with different investment objectives
Commodities
Over the years commodities markets have been experiencing
tremendous progress, which is evident from the fact that the trade in this
segment is standing as the boon for the global economy today. The
promising nature of these markets has made them an attractive investment
avenue for investors.
26
received at different price levels and the demand for the issue is built up
over a period of time.
Marginal funding
Motilal Oswal Financial Services understand needs and help the
trader to meet their liquidity requirements. Company offer Margin
funding to individuals and corporate. Company provide finance for
investment in primary market issues and also possess expertise in
financing for short-term requirements, to buy securities from
secondary markets.
27
3 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
3.1 Reasearch Type
The segment identified for conducting the study is power Sector in
India. The number of companies selected for the study is Seven.
Analytical study is used to conduct the study.
28
For technical analysis, the following tools are used:
• Relative strength index
• 5 day moving average
• 50 day moving average
• Line chart and candlestick chart
29
Analysis and Interpretation of data
Analysis of data is a process of inspecting, cleaning, transforming, and
modeling data with the goal of highlighting useful information, suggesting
conclusions, and supporting decision making. Data analysis has multiple facts
and approaches, encompassing diverse techniques under a variety of names, in
different business, science, and social science domains.
ADANI POWER
Table No:4.1.1
Share Price details of Adani Power
for the year ended 2011-2012
Face value 10
Market capitalization (Cr) 13701
52 week high 70
52 week low 36
Interpretation:
The face value of Adani Power is Rs 10 each. Their market capitalization
is Rs 13701 cr. The highest value for 52 week is Rs 70 and the low for
the same is Rs 36.
Table No:4.1.2
Pay Out Ratio of Adani Power
for the year ended 2011-2012
EPS(Earning per share) 0
Dividend yield % 0
Interpretation:
The Earnings Per Share of Adani Power is ‘0’, their dividend yield ratio
is also ‘0’.
30
Table No: 4.1.3
Return on Equity of Adani Power
for the year ended 2011-2012
SHARE CAPITAL 2180
RESERVE AND SURPLUS 3848
NET WORTH 6029
PROFIT AFTER TAX (PAT) -294
RETURN ON NET WORTH (%) -6.35
Interpretation:
The net worth of Adani Power is Rs.6029. their profit after tax is -294
and their return on net worth is -6.35.
Interpretation :
The current ratio of Adani Power is .23 and their debt equity ratio is
3.59. the gross profit ratio is 38.68 percentage and net profit ratio is
-9.93 percentage. Their interest coverage ratio is nil.
Chart No 4.1.1
Line Chart of ADANI POWER
31
Interpretation:
The share price of Adani power is 50 at the beginning of the study. After
that price move upto 68. The share price now showing bullish trend after
the fall from 68 to 40. The upward trend is a good signal to investors
Chart No 4.1.2
Candlestick Chart of ADANI POWER
32
Interpretation:
The chart shows a positive trend of share price of ADANI POWER after
the early fall of share price during the period of study. The share price of
Adani power is 50 at the beginning of the study. After that price move
upto 68.
Chart No 4.1.3
Moving Average Chart of ADANI POWER
33
Interpretation:
5 day moving average of ADANI POWER cut the 50 day moving
average twice during the study period and maintains the critical level.
Now it is above the support line. ADANI POWER shows a positive trend
in its share price.
Chart No 4.1.4
RSI Chart of ADANI POWER
34
Interpretation:
RSI chart of ADANI POWER shows the bullish buying trend of the
stock. Stock is near to the RSI point 70 . it shows the strength of the
stock. This stock touch the 70 level twice during the period of study.
RELIANCE POWER
35
Table No: 4.2.1
Share Price details of Reliance Power
for the year ended 2011-2012
Face value 10
Market capitalization (Cr) 21164
52 week high 111
52 week low 58
Interpretation:
The face value of Reliance Power is Rs 10 each. Their market
capitalization is Rs 21164 cr. The highest value for 52 week is Rs 111and
the low for the same is Rs 58.
Interpretation:
The Earnings Per Share of Reliance Power is .38, their dividend yield
ratio is also ‘0’.
36
NET WORTH 16103
PROFIT AFTER TAX (PAT) 310
RETURN ON NET WORTH (%) 0.85
Interpretation:
The net worth of Reliance Power is Rs.16103. Their profit after tax is 310
and their return on net worth is .85
Interpretation :
The current ratio of Reliance Power is 45.26 and their debt equity ratio is
0.05. The gross profit ratio is 300.62 percentage and net profit ratio is
204.80 percentage. Their interest coverage ratio is 3.25.
Chart No 4.2.1
Line Chart of RELIANCE POWER
37
Interpretation:
The reliance power stock shows bearish trend in the early stage of study.
Now the movement of stock price shows a recovery trend. Share price of
RELIANCE POWER is 100 at the beginning of the study. After that price
down upto 60 level. Now the stock shows recovery trend from the massive
fall.
Chart No 4.2.2
Candlestick Chart of RELIANCE POWER
38
Interpretation:
The reliance power stock shows down trend in the early stage of study.
The stock price fall from 101 to 60 during the period of study. Now the
stock is in recovery trend.
Chart No 4.2.3
Moving Average Chart of RELIANCE POWER
39
Interpretation:
Reliance power stock shows negative trend in the early stage. The share
price break 50 DAY MOVING AVERAGE only once during the period
of study.Now the stock price is above the 50 DAY MOVING
AVERAGE. It shows positive trend in the end of study period.
Chart No 4.2.4
RSI Chart of RELIANCE POWER
40
Interpretation:
RSI chart of Reliance power shows the bullish buying trend . The Stock
now move to the RSI point of 70 . it shows the buying trend of the stok.
The stock down upto 60 point level twice during the period of study.
41
TATA POWER
Interpretation:
The face value of Tata Power is Rs 1 each. Their market capitalization is
Rs 21583 cr. The highest value for 52 week is Rs 113and the low for the
same is Rs 87.
Interpretation:
The Earnings Per Share of Tata Power is 3.97, their dividend yield ratio is
also 1.37.
42
Return on Equity of Tata Power
for the year ended 2011-2012
SHARE CAPITAL 237
RESERVE AND SURPLUS 11720
NET WORTH 11957
PROFIT AFTER TAX (PAT) 1169
RETURN ON NET WORTH (%) 10.09
Interpretation:
The net worth of Tata Power is Rs.11957. Their profit after tax is 1169
and their return on net worth is 10.09 percentage.
Interpretation :
The current ratio of Tata Power is 0.95 and their debt equity ratio is 0.64.
The gross profit ratio is 32.27 percentage and net profit ratio is 13.64
percentage. Their interest coverage ratio is 4.27.
Chart No 4.3.1
Line Chart of TATA POWER
43
Interpretation:
Tata power stock shows bearish trend in its share price. The stock shows
a massive fall in its share price from 112 to 92 during the study period.
First half of study period the stock shows a positive trend. After that the
stock fall upto 90 level. Now stock trading at the maximum low level.
Chart No 4.3.2
Candlestick chart of TATA POWER
44
Interpretation:
First half of study period the stock shows a positive trend. After that the
stock fall upto 90 level. Now stock trading at the maximum low
level.Tata power stock shows bearish trend in its share price. The stock
shows a massive fall in its share price from 112 to 92 during the study
period.
Chart No 4.3.3
Moving Average Chart of TATA POWER
45
Interpretation:
5 day moving average of Tata power is below the 50 day moving average
line. The price of this stock is below the support price .The stock price
will show a good trend only after it resist the 50 day moving average line.
Chart No 4.3.4
RSI Chart of TATA POWER
46
Interpretation:
RSI of TATA POWER is 40 in the last period of study ,it shows the
bearish selling trend of stock. The chart shows negative trend of stock
price during the period of study. The stock only cut 70 point level once
during the period of study.
47
CESC
Table No 4.4.1
Share Price details of CESC for the year ended 2011-2012
Face value 10
Market capitalization (Cr) 4202
52 week high 345
52 week low 252
Interpretation:
The face value of CESC is Rs 10 each. Their market capitalization is Rs
4202 cr. The highest value for 345 week is Rs 252 and the low for the
same is Rs 58.
Table No 4.4.2
Pay Out Ratio of CESC for the year ended 2011-2012
EPS(Earning per share) 49.46
Dividend yield % 1.48
Interpretation:
The Earnings Per Share of CESC is 49.46, their dividend yield ratio is
also 1.48 percentage.
Table No 4.4.3
48
Return on Equity of CESC for the year ended 2011-2012
SHARE CAPITAL 125
RESERVE AND SURPLUS 5806
NET WORTH 6011
PROFIT AFTER TAX (PAT) 554
RETURN ON NET WORTH (%) 12.10
Interpretation:
The net worth of CESC is Rs.6011. Their profit after tax is 554 and their
return on net worth is 12.10
Table No 4.4.4
Key Ratios of CESC for the year ended 2011-2012
CURRENT RATIO 2.12
DEBT EQUITY RATIO 0.67
GROSS PROFIT RATIO (%) 27.80
NET PROFIT RATIO (%) 11.65
INTEREST COVERAGE RATIO 3.04
PRICE EARNING RATIO 6.80
Interpretation :
The current ratio of CESC is 2.12 and their debt equity ratio is 0.67. The
gross profit ratio is 27.80 percentage and net profit ratio is 11.65
percentage. Their interest coverage ratio is 3.04.
Chart No 4.4.1
Line Chart of CESC
49
Interpretation:
CESC stock shows bullish trend in its share price. The chart shows the
strength of the stock in its share price. The CESC stock now trading at
330 level after the recovery from 270.
Chart No 4.4.2
50
Candlestick Chart of CESC
Interpretation:
The chart shows the trend of share price CESC. In the last stage, the stock
shows possative trend in its price. Now the stock trading at the maximum
level.
51
Chart No 4.4.3
Moving Average Chart of CESC
Interpretation:
Share price of CESC once cut the support and it lead to a fall in its price.
The support prices for the stock are 315 and 288. Now the share price is
above the 50 day moving average line. The stock shows bullish trend in
its price.
Chart No 4.4.4
RSI Chart of CESC
52
Interpretation:
RSI of CESC shows positive buying trend of stock. RSI of stock is now
above the 70 level, shows the bullish trend in the stock price. The
company only reached 30 point level twice during the period of study.
NHPC
53
Table No 4.5.1
Face value 10
Market capitalization (Cr) 24601
52 week high 29
52 week low 14
Interpretation:
The face value of NHPC is Rs 10 each. Their market capitalization is Rs
24601 cr. The highest value for 52 week is Rs 29 and the low for the
same is Rs 14.
Table No 4.5.2
Interpretation:
The Earnings Per Share of NHPC is 2.09, their dividend yield ratio is also
3.50.
Table No 4.5.3
54
SHARE CAPITAL 12300
RESERVE AND SURPLUS 14052
NET WORTH 26353
PROFIT AFTER TAX (PAT) 2771
RETURN ON NET WORTH (%) 10.88
Interpretation:
The net worth of NHPC is Rs.26353. Their profit after tax is 2771 and
their return on net worth is 10.88
Table No 4.5.4
Chart No 4.5.1
Line Chart of NHPC
55
Interpretation:
During the period of study, the share price trend is downward. The share
price falls from 29 to 18. The first half of the study the stock price shows
upward trend after share price reached Rs 30, the share price down
sharply upto Rs 20. Now the stock trading at Rs 20.
Chart No 4.5.2
Candlestick Chart of NHPC
56
Interpretation
The chart shows the bearish movement of stock during the period of
study. The first half of the study the stock price shows upward trend after
share price reached Rs 30, the share price down sharply upto Rs 20.
Chart No 4.5.3
Moving Average Chart of NHPC
57
Interpretation:
The chart shows the bearish trend of NHPC stock. The stock now moves
below the 50 Day Moving average. The massive fall of share price from
29 to 18 can’t recover in short time.
Chart No 4.5.4
RSI Chart of NHPC
58
Interpretation:
RSI chart shows bearish selling trend of stock. RSI point of last period
shows 34 point, it give the clear-cut idea of negative movement of that
particular stock.
POWERGRID
Table No 4.6.1
59
Share Price details of Powergrid
for the year ended 2011-2012
Face value 10
Market capitalization (Cr) 52084
52 week high 124.45
52 week low 101.2
Interpretation:
The face value of POWERGRID is Rs 10 each. Their market
capitalization is Rs 52084 cr. The highest value for 52 week is Rs 124.45
and the low for the same is Rs 101.2.
Table No 4.6.2
Pay Out Ratio of Powergrid for the year ended 2011-2012
EPS(Earning per share) 9
Dividend yield % 1.87
Interpretation:
The Earnings Per Share of POWERGRID is 9, their dividend yield ratio
is also 1.87.
Table No 4.6.3
Return on Equity of Powergrid for the year ended 2011-2012
SHARE CAPITAL 4629
RESERVE AND SURPLUS 18858
60
NET WORTH 23487
PROFIT AFTER TAX (PAT) 3254
RETURN ON NET WORTH (%) 14.50
Interpretation:
The net worth of POWERGRID is Rs.23487. Their profit after tax is
3254 and their return on net worth is 14.50
Table No 4.6.1
Key Ratios of Powergrid for the year ended 2011-2012
CURRENT RATIO 0.74
DEBT EQUITY RATIO 2.10
GROSS PROFIT RATIO (%) 90.81
NET PROFIT RATIO (%) 32.43
INTEREST COVERAGE RATIO 3.37
PRICE EARNING RATIO 12.5
Interpretation :
The current ratio of POWERGRID is 0.74 and their debt equity ratio is
2.10. The gross profit ratio is 90.81 percentage and net profit ratio is
32.43 percentage. Their interest coverage ratio is 3.37.
Chart No 4.6.1
Line Chart of POWERGRID
61
Interpretation:
The share price of Powergrid shows a bullish trend during the last period
of study. The chart shows negative trend of price in the early period. The
upward trend in last period is good signal to investors.
Chart No 4.6.2
Candlestick Chart of POWERGRID
62
Interpretation:
The price movement of stock shows down trend in the early stage. Now
the trend is positive for POWERGRID stock. The share price of
Powergrid shows a bullish trend during the last period of study. The
upward trend in last period is good signal to investors.
Chart No 4.6.3
Moving Average Chart of POWERGRID
63
Interpretation:
POWERGRID’s 5 day moving average cut the support line only once
during the period of study. Now the share price of company is above the
support line. Support price for the stock is 108. If it loss this strong
support there may be a fall in its price.
Chart No 4.6.4
RSI Chart of POWERGRID
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Interpretation:
RSI of powergrid stock is 70 above during the 9 th period, after that it
come down into 45 level. 9th period is the idele time to buy
POWERGRID stock.The 10th perid shows 45 point level.that doesn’t
show eihter a possative or a negative trend.
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NTPC
Table No 4.7.1
Share Price details of NTPC for the year ended 2011-2012
Face value 10
Market capitalization (Cr) 127763
52 week high 175
52 week low 136
Interpretation:
The face value of NTPC is Rs 10 each. Their market capitalization is Rs
127763 cr. The highest value for 52 week is Rs 175 and the low for the
same is Rs 136.
Table No 4.7.2
Pay Out Ratio of NTPC for the year ended 2011-2012
EPS(Earning per share) 13.75
Dividend yield % 2.58
Interpretation:
The Earnings Per Share of NTPC is 13.75, their dividend yield ratio is
also 2.58.
Table No 4.7.3
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Return on Equity of NTPC for the year ended 2011-2012
SHARE CAPITAL 8245
RESERVE AND SURPLUS 65054
NET WORTH 73291
PROFIT AFTER TAX (PAT) 9223
RETURN ON NET WORTH (%) 13.07
Interpretation:
The net worth of NTPC is Rs.73291. Their profit after tax is 9223 and
their return on net worth is 13.07
Table No 4.7.4
Key Ratios of NTPC for the year ended 2011-2012
CURRENT RATIO 2.10
DEBT EQUITY RATIO 0.66
GROSS PROFIT RATIO (%) 26.94
NET PROFIT RATIO (%) 14.76
INTEREST COVERAGE RATIO 8.19
PRICE EARNING RATIO 11.26
Interpretation :
The current ratio of NTPC is 2.10 and their debt equity ratio is 0.66. The
gross profit ratio is 29.94 percentage and net profit ratio is 14.76
percentage. Their interest coverage ratio is 8.19.
Chart No 4.7.1
Line chart of NTPC
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Interpretation:
The stock price NTPC falls in every rise. The stock shows negative trend
in its price in the early stage. The stock price fall from 170 to 140 during
the time of study. Now the stock trading at 150 level.
Chart No 4.7.2
Candlestick chart of NTPC
68
Interpretation:
NTPC stock price shows a down trend in the early stage of study.The
stock shows a recovery trend in the last stage. The stock price NTPC falls
in every rise. Now the stock trading at 150 level.
Chart No 4.7.3
Moving Average chart of NTPC
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Interpretation:
5 day moving average of NTPC cut twice the resistance line of 50 day
moving average. The stock shows positive trend in its price. The support
price of NTPC is 149. If the stock loss its support price it may lead to a
fall in its price.
Chart No 4.7.4
RSI chart of NTPC
70
Interpretation:
RSI of NTPC stock shows 30 point level in 10 th period of study. It shows
bearish selling trend of that particular stock.RSI of 9th period is above the
70 point level, so 9th period is idle time to buy that particular stock
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5.1 FINDINGS
• Table No 4.2.4 shows that the profitability ratios are high in
RELIANCE POWER while considering other securities selected
for the study.
• Table No 4.4.2 shows that the CESC have high EPS (49.46
rupees) than other stocks followed by NTPC .(13.75 rupees)
• Chart No 4.4.4 shows the CESC and ADANI POWER stock shows
a bullish trend as per RSI chart.
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• Chart No 4.3.3 and 4.5.3 shows that the TATA POWER, and
NHPC, stocks now trading below the critical line of 50 day moving
average.
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5.2 SUGGESTIONS
• Fundamentals of all power stock are not strong, as per the financial
statement year ended 2012
• Movement of TATA POWER, and NHPC shows a weaker trend.
The stocks now trading below the critical line so that an investor
can move from these stocks.
• ADANI POWER, RELIANCE and CESC shows bullish trend in
its share price and it is advisory to hold these shares.
• Investor can buy CESC stock in a long term prospective.
• It is better to book profit on NTPC & POWER GRID stocks even
though they trading above the 50 day moving average.(RSI Chart
shows bearish trend).
• It is advisory to an investor, should not depend only on one tool,
rather one has gone for other chart patterns to get confirmation for
buy or sell signal.
• The risk is common for all securities. The scrip that is having low
price may also be subject to high risk. The main reason is that
market is unpredictable. So the investor must invest carefully.
Since the risk is involved in every scrip, greater emphasize is given
to return in each investment
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5.3 CONLUSION
The study deals with share and share trading gives a general idea
about the analysis of stocks. The analysis carried on two basis,
Fundamental analysis and technical analysis. Technical analysis shows a
short term trend based on historical data and fundamental analysis helpful
for the decision making for long term investment. From the analysis it is
found that the charts prepared on the basis of the share price, with the
support of technical tools shows all the trends and variations as
interpreted in the theory. In the analysis using moving average it is found
that if the price is lying above the moving average, the scrip is in a
bullish trend if the price lying below the moving average the scrip is in
bearish trend. Technical analysis ignores the actual nature of the
company. Technical analysis is based solely on the chart that is to say
price and volume information. The investor has to invest wisely on the
scrip which gives high return with most possible risk.
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