Mountains Witnesses of Global Changes

R. Baudo, G. Tartari, and E. Vuillermoz (Editors)

r 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 301

33
Development of a mesoscale convective system over the
foothills of the Himalaya into a severe storm

Qamar-uz-Zaman Chaudhry and Ghulam Rasul

Abstract

The occurrence of weather-related extremes has been increased considerably over low
elevation plains as well as over the high altitudes in recent years. One such extreme
precipitation event was recorded in Pakistan that produced 620 mm rainfall in the
capital during only 10 h. Diagnostic analysis and numerical simulations have been
carried out using surface and NCEP reanalysis data along with radar and satellite
images for the development of a mesoscale convective system (MCS) resulting in a
severe storm. It has been revealed that the sudden evolution of the MCS was the
direct result of strong surface convection in moist and unstable lower layers of
the atmosphere. The subsequent rapid development was the combined effect of the
presence of a mid-latitude trough in the westerlies in the north and a moisture supply
through monsoonal flow along the Himalaya. The westward shifting of the sub-
tropical high from the north of India, and the strong divergence zone on its east edge
played a significant role in developing the upward motion. Movement of the system
was controlled by the steering current in the middle troposphere. The model captured
the location of heavy precipitation well at 15 and 30 km resolution but failed to
predict the amount of rainfall. The scale analysis shows that the MCS was the
combination of a, b, and g mesoscale systems.

1. Introduction

Pakistan is located in South Asia and neighbors India on the east. It draws the
western boundary to the South Asian summer monsoon region. Pakistan extends
northeast to southwest from the Arabian Sea between latitudes 241 N to 371 N and
longitudes 601 E to 751 E. It can also be mentioned that the peculiar orographic
features, such as the Himalaya and Hindu–Kush ranges in the north and northwest,
respectively, along with the Tibetan Plateau on the northeast, play an important role
in modifying the weather systems. The high mountains act as a ‘‘blocking high’’ to
the movement of low pressure systems from the south. When there is some moisture

ISSN: 0928-2025 DOI: 10.1016/S0928-2025(06)10033-4

302 Qamar-uz-Zaman Chaudhry, Ghulam Rasul

feeding from the Bay of Bengal or the Arabian Sea in association with some active
westerly systems, the heavy rainfall is produced sometimes in the northern parts of
Pakistan. This is primarily the situation in which devastating floods occur in the
rivers and cause heavy losses downstream to agriculture and infrastructure. The
contribution of monsoon rainfall is more that 55% of Pakistan’s total annual rainfall
(Chaudhry, 1991).
Islamabad and Rawalpindi are twin cities, situated north–south in the sub-
mountainous region of the province of Punjab. Islamabad is located in the area with
an inverted ‘‘V’’ pattern terrain (trumpet shape terrain) along the Margalla Hills,
which are foot hills of Himalaya. On July 23, 2001, the twin cities of Islamabad and
Rawalpindi experienced in 24 h a record-breaking heavy rainfall for any locality in
Pakistan during the past 100 years for that time period. At the central observatory of
Islamabad, 620 mm of precipitation was recorded in only 10 h. A continuous down-
pour in somewhat cloudburst proportions, lasted for about 10 h from 0100 to 1100
UTC and caused the worst-ever flash flood in the living memory of the people in the
local stream called ‘‘Nullah Lai’’ and its tributaries, which swept away low-lying
areas of the twin cities (Rasul et al., 2004). The banks of the Nullah could not be
identified and its core speed flux was not less than 30 km/h in general. Bi-standing
housings were swept leaving no signs of their past existence along the banks of the
Nullah Lai. The Pakistan Meteorological Department issued a heavy rainfall forecast
in its regular Weather Broadcast Bulletin a day earlier but never expected this much
mass of water to occur during such a short interval of time. Although the flash flood
warning was issued almost 5 h in advance, yet still the people could not respond in a
timely fashion to the extent of devastation and severe damages still occurred.
The heavy downpour occurring between 0600 and 0900 UTC accumulated a huge
amount of water together with the rain water from the tributaries draining into
Nullah Lai, which passes through Rawalpindi city and resulted into severe flooding.
Water levels rose to 11 m causing the Nullah Lai into overflow. The depth of
the flood water in certain low-lying areas of Rawalpindi was as much as 6 m. In
Islamabad, some areas were also badly affected and civic life was totally paralyzed.
Loss to the business community, including valuable medicines, was estimated up to
tens of millions of dollars. The dwellers of the twin cities were the main sufferers as
their dwellings were destroyed and the supply of public utilities was totally stopped
for a considerable period of time.
According to the surface weather map drawn at the local Met Office at 0300 UTC
on July 22, 2001, a high pressure system existed over Tajikistan as well as China, and
low pressure prevailed over Pakistan between the two highs. A trough of the westerly
wave was also passing across north of Pakistan. Another strong low pressure center
was located on the West Bay of Bengal and adjoining coastal parts of India. A
mesoscale low was just located to the northwest of Islamabad whose horizontal
extent was initially about 200 km. The mesoscale low which appeared on July 22
produced a heavy downpour on its way to moving to the twin cities. It was quite
different from typical monsoon depressions of the Bay of Bengal and the lows in the
Meiyu front (Zhao and Mills, 1991; Zhang and Zhao, 2002; Zhao, 1988; Zhao et al.,
2002) because it developed abruptly as a result of intense local convection. The
above-mentioned mesoscale low pressure system formed over the Hazara–Malakand
Mesoscale convective system over the foothills of the Himalaya 303

Division between 341–371 N and 701–751 E, and intensified quickly with a central
pressure less than 996 hPa due to its favorable orographic location ahead of the
westerly trough at 500 hPa, which existed between 401–501 N and 601–701 E. At
the same time there were also strong monsoon incursions from the Arabian Sea in the
south and the Bay of Bengal. The southwesterly monsoon current from the Arabian
Sea showed strong convergence over Islamabad and the Hazara–Malakand Division
located in the north of Pakistan. The strong southeasterly monsoon current from the
Bay of Bengal reached right up to the northern parts of Pakistan after traveling along
the foothills of the Himalaya. During ENSO events, rainfall becomes highly erratic
over the Indian peninsula (Ailikun and Yasunari, 2001).

2. Mesoscale systems and water vapor supply

The mesoscale low was formed in the northern hilly terrain, including the foot hills of
the Himalaya as a result of local convection, and was further developed under the
favorable conditions of moisture supply and the influencing westerly wave passing
across the north of Pakistan.
In Fig. 33.1(a) and (b), the vertical cross sections of relative humidity along 731 E
longitude (the longitude of the twin cities) are shown on July 22 and 23, 2001,
respectively. It can be noticed from Fig. 33.1(a) that the maxima ranging from 80 to
90% prevailed between 850 and 700 hPa from 331 to 351 N. The lower atmosphere
was relatively drier. The minima of relative humidity bearing values even less than
20% up to mid-troposphere existed between 351 N and 381 N. On the following day
as shown in Fig. 33.1(b), the maxima was further accentuated and extended down to
the surface. The already existing minima between 351 N and 381 N experienced
further expansion from the surface to 500 hPa. The core of the minima-bearing
values of less than 10% humidity existed between 371 and 381 N from 850 to 700 hPa.
The prevailing conditions of relative humidity resulted into the development of
highly unstable atmosphere.
To know the reasons behind this movement of the system, the streamline analyses
were carried out at the lower levels of the atmosphere. The difference of the stream-
lines at 700 and 850 hPa was compared as shown in Fig. 33.2(a) and (b). It can be
seen that there were southerly and southwesterly wind in northern parts of Pakistan
at 850 hPa whereas the northwesterly wind in the region mentioned above was at
700 hPa. Obviously, the movement of cloud cluster echoes was controlled by the
steering current in the middle troposphere (700 hPa), rather than by that in the lower
troposphere as at 850 hPa. This resulted in a southeastward movement of cloud
clusters. It does not mean that the current in the lower troposphere was not of any
importance. On the contrary, it played a very significant role in supplying of water
vapor to the system at its development stage. From Fig. 33.2(a) and (b), it can be
noticed that there were strong monsoon incursions from the Arabian Sea and the Bay
of Bengal converging over northern parts of Pakistan. It must be noticed that when
these highly unstable and moist currents struck the east–west extended mountain
terrain at right angles, a strong orographic lifting took place in this already con-
vectively unstable region north of Islamabad. The direction of the southwesterly
304 Qamar-uz-Zaman Chaudhry, Ghulam Rasul

300
(a)

500

600

700

850
925
950
45N 42N 39N 36N 33N 30N 27N 24N 21N 18N 15N
300
(b)

500

600

700

850
925
950
45N 42N 39N 36N 33N 30N 27N 24N 21N 18N 15N

Figure 33.1. (a) Relative humidity along 731 E on July 22, 2001 at 0000 UTC (b) Relative humidity along
731 E on July 23, 2001 at 0000 UTC.

Arabian Sea current from the surface to 2000 m a.s.l. was oriented in such a way that
its maximum impact was focused over northern parts of Pakistan comprising the
area of development of mesoscale low.
The existence of cyclonic circulation can be seen in the streamline field at 850 hPa
on July, 22 2001 shown in Fig. 33.3(a) in the northern parts of Pakistan. In the
Mesoscale convective system over the foothills of the Himalaya 305

45N
(a)

40N

35N

30N

25N

20N

15N
50E 55E 60E 65E 70E 75E 80E 85E 90E

45N
(b)

40N

35N

30N

25N

20N

15N
50E 55E 60E 65E 70E 75E 80E 85E 90E

Figure 33.2. Streamlines at 0000 UTC (a) 850 hPa on July 22, 2001 and (b) 700 hPa on July 22, 2001.
Moisture transport from the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal is evident in the figure.
306 Qamar-uz-Zaman Chaudhry, Ghulam Rasul

45N
(a)

40N

35N

30N

25N

20N

15N
50E 55E 60E 65E 70E 75E 80E 85E 90E

45N
(b)

40N

35N

30N

25N

20N

15N
50E 55E 60E 65E 70E 75E 80E 85E 90E

Figure 33.3. (a) 850 hPa divergence of moisture flux (10–7 g/hPa cm2s) at 0000 UTC on July 22 (a) and 23
(b), 2001.
Mesoscale convective system over the foothills of the Himalaya 307

northeastern part of the cyclonic circulation there existed a strong convergence zone
of moisture flux, i.e., the negative value region of divergence over Islamabad. From
Fig. 33.3(a) and (b), it is clear that there existed a very strong convergence zone of
moisture flux at 850 hPa, especially a day before occurrence of the record heavy
rainfall in Islamabad and Rawalpindi on July, 23.
It can be noticed that minima of divergence of the moisture flux (DMF), i.e., the
negative value region in Fig. 33.3(a), was located in the northern parts of Pakistan
with values as low as 40  10–7 g/hPa cm2 s. Strong convergence of moisture along
with other above-mentioned parameters provided highly favorable large scale con-
ditions for the formation and development of the heavy rainfall system. The next
day, on July 23, the negative value region of DMF was still situated in the same
region, although the intensity was slightly weaker than that on July 22. The con-
tinued convergence of moisture resulted in the production of highly unstable con-
ditions and triggered the further development and intensification of the system.

3. The influence of cold air and terrain lifting

It is also worth mentioning that cold air from the middle latitudes also played an
important role in setting a conducive stage in the occurrence of heavy rainfall in the
presence of active monsoon currents. The analyses of geopotential height, as well as
temperature on July 22 and 23, 2001 (Fig. 33.4) revealed that the western part of sub-
tropical high extended up to western parts of Pakistan letting cold air to penetrate
into northern parts of Pakistan. Monsoon air masses are warmer and convectively
unstable in nature (Ohsawa et al., 2001), therefore its interaction with cold air of
higher latitudes results in interesting developments of weather in the regions of their
interaction. A trough of the westerly wave could be seen passing across Afghanistan
in Fig. 33.4a and b. Such an interaction can produce heavy, to very heavy rain over
the track of the system (Rao et al., 1970; Tao, 1980). It can be noticed that the –41C
isotherm was passing across the north of Afghanistan and the –21C isotherm across
north boundary of Pakistan at 500 hPa at 0000 UTC on July 22, 2001, as shown in
Fig. 33.4(a). However, on July 23, cold air moved southward, the 41C isotherm
invaded northern Afghanistan and also the –21C isotherm extended further south
and prevailed over the northern parts of Pakistan (Fig. 33.4b).
In this situation, the stratification would be more unstable due to the cold air
invasion at the middle-upper troposphere in the region, and therefore it added to
triggering the formation of a severe weather system. Of course, it was not enough if
only large-scale environmental conditions were favorable. The triggering mechanism
also played a key role in producing heavy rainfall in association with other factors
discussed in earlier sections. A strong convergence zone in northern Pakistan, es-
pecially near Rawalpindi and Islamabad existed as shown in Fig. 33.3a. Due to
warm, as well as moist air below and cold air advection above, a strong convective
instability was generated in the vertical column of the atmosphere. With the con-
tinued supply of moisture, an intense weather system originated abruptly under the
prevailing conditions which was thereby stimulated throughout its development
process. Rasul et al. (2005) studied a heavy downpour event in the arid climate of
308 Qamar-uz-Zaman Chaudhry, Ghulam Rasul

45N
(a)
40N

35N

30N

25N

20N

15N
50E 55E 60E 65E 70E 75E 80E 85E 90E

45N
(b)
40N

35N

30N

25N

20N

15N
50E 55E 60E 65E 70E 75E 80E 85E 90E

Figure 33.4. The 500 hPa geopotential height (m) and air temperature (1C) at 0000 UTC on July 22 (a)
and July 23 (b) 2001. Bold lines are contours and dotted lines show isotherms.
Mesoscale convective system over the foothills of the Himalaya 309

India and Pakistan where a mesoscale low merged with a diffused tropical depression
and reactivated into a strong system due to convective instability and strong moisture
convergence.
In addition, Islamabad and Rawalpindi are just located in the inverse ‘‘V’’ shaped
mountainous area composed of the foothills of the Himalayas opening to the south.
The southerly wind perpendicular to the slope lifted due to peculiar orographic
features and produced stronger vertical motion. The augmentation of rainfall on the
windward side of the mountain ranges is an established fact that is primarily related
to orographic lifting. Convergence of both the monsoon currents from the Bay of
Bengal and the Arabian Sea and the terrain-lift forcing might have played an im-
portant role in triggering the appearance of the heavy rainfall. This could be con-
firmed from the increasing intensity of precipitation as the system moved from its
origin towards the twin cities. The maxima of precipitation reached over the twin
cities, and this might be the additional effect of terrain lifting forcing on converging
monsoon currents.
This extreme precipitation of the mesoscale convective system (MCS) was simu-
lated by the Mesoscale Meteorological Model (MM5) at different resolutions but did
not produce encouraging results regarding location and amount of precipitation. It
seems quite reasonable to simulate such events by using Regional Climate
Model RegCM3 with Emanuel parameterization scheme (Kar et al., 2001). ERA40

Figure 33.5. Output of the Reg CM3 model at different resolutions and domains.
310 Qamar-uz-Zaman Chaudhry, Ghulam Rasul

(the 40-year European re-analysis data of the global atmosphere) has been used to
get the results of the model. The model was run at different resolutions ranging from
fine to coarse (15 km, 30 km, and 50 km) in varied domains. The simulation results
are presented in Fig. 33.5. It can be seen that finer resolution (15 km) could only
reveal the evolution site but gave no indication of the intensity of the system. On the
other hand, 30 km resolution produced satisfactory results related to the location and
intensity features whereas 50 km resolution presents unrealistic output.

4. Conclusions

In this paper the record-breaking 620 mm rainfall produced by a mesoscale convec-

tive system evolved along the foothills of the Himalayas has been studied. The main
results are:

(1) The summer monsoon trough over South Asia intensified, the current of the
northern branch of the monsoon trough, transported huge moisture to the north
of Pakistan along the foothills of Himalaya. The easterly current played a very
important role in the formation of very severe heavy rainfall. In addition, the
southern current coming from the Arabian Sea also contributed significantly to
the occurrence of very heavy rainfall. The above-mentioned two currents con-
verged north of Islamabad and the maxima of convergence of moisture flux just
appeared in the region. It could be mentioned here that the Bay of Bengal and the
Arabian Sea were the two major sources for moisture supply to this weather
system.
(2) In the middle troposphere, the colder air at 500 hPa invaded north Pakistan. The
advection of cold air made the atmospheric stratification more unstable in the
vertical column and produced a conducive environment for upward extension of
convective cumulus clouds.
(3) The sudden heavy rainfall producing severe flooding is associated with the for-
mation of a low pressure system in the lower troposphere that was just located in
the inverse ‘‘V-shaped’’ mountain area north of Islamabad. The dynamic lifting
of the inverse ‘‘V-shaped’’ terrain to the south and east currents, undoubtedly
enhanced the upward motion in the heavy rain area which greatly increased the
further development resulting in the heavy downpour.
(4) Some mesoscale b systems, even mesoscale g systems evolved simultaneously.
They further developed in the favorable environment of the lower tropospheric
low pressure system. These mesoscale convective systems influenced directly the
intensity and position of heavy precipitation. It was the unique phenomenon
termed as a ‘‘cloud burst.’’ The radar-echo data showed that the mesoscale sys-
tem moved southeastward along the steering current in the middle troposphere
along the foothills to the east of the inverse ‘‘V-shaped’’ terrain, rather than the
surface current direction to shift northwestward.
(5) The position of the high pressure over South Asia at 200 hPa was situated over
the Iran Plateau and Tibetan Plateau. Its eastern edge was just over the boundary
between India and Pakistan, rather than over East Asia. The strong divergence
Mesoscale convective system over the foothills of the Himalaya 311

zone in the upper troposphere was located to the east of Islamabad and Raw-
alpindi, which provided favorable conditions for intensification of upward mo-
tion and hence for heavy rainfall.
(6) Although the numerical models could not fully simulate this historic extreme
event of the MCS precipitation, nevertheless encouraging results were drawn
regarding location and intensity of this weather system.

References

Ailikun, B. and Yasunari, T., 2001. ENSO and summer monsoon; persistence and transitivity in the
seasonal march. Journal of Meteorological Society of Japan 79 (1), 145–159.
Chaudhry, Q.Z., 1991. Analysis and seasonal prediction of Pakistan summer monsoon. Ph. D. dissertation
at University of Philippines.
Kar, S.C., Sugi, M., and Sato, N., 2001. Interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon and internal
variability in the JMA global model simulations. Journal of Meteorological Society of Japan 79 (2),
607–623.
Ohsawa, T., Ueda, H., and Hayashi, T., 2001. Diurnal variations of convective activity and rainfall in
tropical Asia. Journal of Meteorological Society of Japan 79 (1), 333–352.
Rao, Y.P., Srinivasan, V., and Raman, S., 1970. Effect of middle latitude Westerly systems on Indian
monsoon. Symposium Tropical Meteorology Hawaii, pp. N, IV 1–4.
Rasul, G., Chaudhry, Q.Z., Zhao, S.X., and Zeng, Q.C., 2004. A diagnostic study of record heavy rain in
twin cities Islamabad–Rawalpindi. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 21 (6), 976–988.
Rasul, G., Chaudhry, Q.Z., Zhao, S.X., et al., 2005. Diagnostic analysis of a heavy rainfall event in South
Asia. Journal of Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 22 (3), 375–391.
Tao, S.Y., 1980. Rainstorm in China, Beijing, Scientific Press, 1–225.
Zhao, S.X., 1988. Energetics of Cyclogenesis on Meiyu (Baiu) Front. Proceedings of Palmen Memorial
Symposium on Extratropical Cyclones, Helsinki, Finland, 205–208.
Zhang, F. and Zhao, S.X., 2002. Study on one kind of cyclone on Meiyu (Baiu) front. Proceedings of
International Conference on Mesoscale Convective Systems and heavy rainfall/snowfall in East Asia,
Tokyo, Japan. 117–122.
Zhao, S.X., Bei, N.F., Sun, J.H., et al., 2002. A study of heavy rainfall systems in mid-lower latitude zone
of Asian–Australian monsoon area. Climatic and Environmental Research 7 (4), 377–385.
Zhao, S.X. and Mills, G.A., 1991. A study of a monsoon depression bringing record heavy rainfall over
Australia. Part II; Synoptic-Diagnostic description. Monthly Weather Review 119 (9), 2074–2094.