Statistical Analysis of Thermal Actions on a Concrete

Segmental Box-Girder Bridge

Summary
A method is presented for statistical treatment of thermal actions measured on
concrete bridges during long-term monitoring. The method is based on recognis-
ing that thermal actions are not entirely random, but contain deterministic
components due to the Earth’s rotation and revolution. Greater precision and
reliability could be attained in calculating frequent, quasi-permanent and
50-year return-period values for thermal actions by applying separate statistical
analyses to these random and deterministic parts. The procedure is used to check
the validity of the empirical relationships in Eurocode 1 between the effective
mean temperature of a bridge and the shade air temperature.
Riccardo Rarsotti
Dr Eng.
Technical Bureau Municipality of Pisa
Pisa. Italy

Born in 1966, Riccardo Barsotti obtained

his civil engineering degree from the Univ.
of Pisa in 1992, and his Ph.D. from the
Univ. of Florence in 1997. Since 1993,
he has been carrying out research on the
mechanical behaviour of masonry walls
and arches, the assessment of thermal
actions on bridges, and the mechanical
response of wrinkled membranes.
Maurizio Froli
Prof.
University of Pisa
Pisa. Italy
Born in 1954, Maurizio Froli received his
civil engineering degree in 1980 from the
Univ. of Pisa, where he was nominated
Assoc. Prof. in 1998. His main research
interests include the thermal behaviour
of modem and historic structures, fatigue
behaviour of orthotropic steel bridge
decks, and rehabilitation and strengthening
projects.
Peer-reviewed by international ex-
perts and accepted for publication
by IABSE Publications Committee
Introduction
Any structure that interacts directly
with climatic agents is subjected to
non-stationary and spatially non-linear
temperature fields that induce dis-
placements and stresses. Such actions
are generally relevant to the struc-
ture’s serviceability and sometimes to
its safety. For bridges, especially con-
crete ones, climate-induced thermal
actions acquire particular significance,
as demonstrated by the number of
bridges that have sustained damage
from thermal actions over the last
30 years [l].
Greater knowledge of the thermal re-
sponse of this class of structures is
therefore needed in order to ensure
adequate durability and safety levels,
particularly in modern long-span pre-
stressed concrete bridges with limited
numbers of expansion joints and bear-
ings 221.
Over the last decade a large amount of
research has been performed on this
topic, and modern numerical simula-
tions of the non-stationary thermal
fields in concrete bridges have at-
tained close matches to experimental
data [l, 3-51. It is now possible to reli-
ably predict the complex thermal be-
haviour of a concrete bridge simply by
determining the time histories over
several consecutive days of the most
important climatic agents, i.e. the
shade air temperature, solar radiation
and wind speed. Other data, such as
the bridge orientation, cross-sectional
geometry and thermal properties of
its constituent materials, are also re-
quired.
Applying this knowledge to current
design and practice, however, remains
much more problematic. Consider, for
example, the task of translating the
vast amount of available theoretical
and experimental results into simple
code rules and guidelines.
In addition to the problems of standar-
dising the non-linear temperature dis-
tributions occurring on bridge cross
sections, the most important research
requirement that has yet to be fully
satisfied is to give these actions a
consistent, rationally based statistical
meaning [6-91. This need stems from
their extremely random nature and
from the probabilistic philosophy un-
derlying the main standard codes, such
as the Eurocodes.
The aim of this paper is to further con-
tribute to reaching this goal by illus-
trating the most relevant results of
statistical analysis performed on ther-
mal-action data measured every two
hours on the Casilina Bridge in Cen-
tral Italy during a three-year monitor-
ing programme. The bridge is a pre-
stressed continuous box girder bridge
220 m long, with three intermediate
spans of 50 m and two end spans of
30 m and 40 m. Erection was per-
formed by assembling together precast
segments in a balanced cantilever [5].

Structural Engineering International 2/2000 Science and Technology 111

Local Temperature
Measurements
Let x and y be the centroidal principal
axis of the bridge cross section, and
assume that they coincide with the
horizontal and vertical directions, re-
spectively (Fig. 2). At a given time t,
the appearance of a temperature field
over the cross section of the bridge
may be considered as an event. Statis-
tically speaking, these events are diffi-
cult to treat as single elements of a
population because every element is
described by a two-dimensional, non-
linear function T(x, y) that is not de-
pendent on any unique parameter. It
is therefore necessary to decompose
any generic instantaneous tempera-
ture field into components, each de-
fined entirely by a number and belong-
ing to a population of its own, though
eventually correlated with the other
component populations.
A two-dimensional temperature field
is usually decomposed into a uniform
part T,,,, called the effective mean tem-
perature, two linear gradients DT,, and
DT,, and a residual non-linear self-
compensated part B, as indicated in
the following equations.
T,(t) = + jjUx, y,rJdA
A DT, produce rotations of the girder’s
DT,ft) = f jlT(x, y,WA
XA
DT,(t) = +/jT(x, y,t)xdA
YA
Bfx,y,t)=T(x,y,t)-[T,(t)+xDT,(t)
+ YDT,W]
where A is the cross-sectional area of
the bridge, and J, and J,, the moments
of inertia of the bridge cross section
with respect to the x and y axes, re-
spectively. Eqs. (l-4) are defined as
Fig. I: Cross section and axis orientation of the Casilina Bridge
112 Science and Technology
the effective parameters of the given
temperature field, or the thermal-
action components, according to the
usual, albeit imprecise, terminology.
If the bridge had been built by assem-
bling large portions, its static scheme
would have progressed stepwise over
time. At any time t after completion
of such a bridge, the components of
the thermal actions for each bridge
portion are given by the differences
T,,,(Q - T&O), DT,(t) - DT,(~o) and
DT&) - DTx(to) 3 where to is the day
when the portion was assembled. Even
in prismatic girder bridges, where
Tm(t), DTy(t) and DT,(t) are almost
uniform along the longitudinal axis,
actual thermal actions may be non-
uniform and will coincide with Eqs.
( l - 3 ) o n l y i f Tm(to), DTy(to) a n d
D T,(t,) are negligible. However, after
a convenient transition period, creep
effects drastically reduce the influence
of the initial restraint and tempera-
ture conditions on secondary thermal
stresses. Therefore, determining the
exact distributions of Tm(fo), DTy(to)
and DTX(to) is not as important as find-
ing those of T,(t), DT,,(t) and DT,(t),
which may therefore be approximately
defined as the true thermal-action com-
ponents.
T, is responsible for the axial move-
(1) ments of the girder, while DTy and
end sections. If these movements are
(2) restrained, continuity bending mo-
ments and axial forces arise that cause
secondary stresses normally of the
(3) same order of magnitude as the live
loads [2]. The stresses induced by the
residual part B(x,y) are independent
of the degree of bridge restraint and
(4) are self-equilibrated over the cross
section (primary stresses). Although
important for concrete durability,
primary stresses are not so intense or
dangerous as secondary stresses, and
since instantaneous values of B cannot
be described simply by a unique quan-
Structural Engineering International 2/2000
tity, but rather are a function of x and
y, they have not been included in this
statistical analysis.
Temperatures can be measured only at
a finite number of points in the cross
section. Therefore, derivation of the
previously defined thermal-action com-
ponents must be performed over the
cross section by a numerical integra-
tion technique based on approximate
fitting of the generic instantaneous
temperature field. This is achieved by
means of a group of simple shape func-
tions, chosen on the basis of a transient
finite-element thermal analysis and
forced to contain the measured tem-
peratures [5].
Daily Maxima and Minima
Basic Assumptions
The daily extreme values of T, and
DTy were derived by means of Eqs.
(1 and 2) respectively, for each day
of the observation period (2 April
1987 - 31 July 1990; Figs. 2 and 3).
These quantities cannot be considered
entirely random. Seasonal tempera-
ture variations depend essentially on
the yearly course of the Earth around
the Sun, while daily variations depend
on the rotational motion of the Earth
around its axis. Thus, in the hypotheti-
cal absence of atmospheric pertur-
bations and neglecting long-term
changes in the Earth’s motion, the
temperature time history of a bridge
would repeat itself each year. Based
on this idea, it was postulated that the
observed temperature variations con-
tain a steady, yearly periodic oscilla-
tion of a deterministic nature.
However, differences in the observed
data from the steady periodic law are
very irregular, depending on the ran-
dom occurrence of atmospheric per-
turbations of different duration and
intensities. The random nature of the
recorded temperature events was as-
sumed to be completely described by
these differences, and thus only these
differences have been analysed statis-
tically.
By this reasoning, it was hypothesised
that at time t the extremes of T,
(T,,,,,,, and T,,,,min) may be expressed as
Tmmaxft) = T$k4 + ~i?mxC~) (5)
TIWIll” ( t ) = m.mm
Ted) (t)+ T(‘) j
mmin (‘)
I

surfacing works
10
5 l mm
0
1987 1988 1989
year
Fig. 2: Time distribution of the daily maxima (red) and minima
(blue) for T,,, (solid lines represent deterministic components)
where ihe superscript (d) indicates the
periodic deterministic part of T,,,, and
the superscript (I) the random part.
The random parts of the thermal ac-
tions are rigorously described by non-
stationary inter-correlated stochastic
processes whose probability distribu-
tion is unknown. The study of such
processes is extremely complex and
requires a wide-ranging statistical data-
base in order to be significant and con-
sistent.
As a first approximation, it can be as-
sumed that the probability distribution
of the random parts of the daily maxi-
ma and minima of T, and DT, are
constant with respect to time and that,
consequently, these quantities may be
regarded as separate, independent
random variables. This is guaranteed
by their degrees of correlation, ranging
normally from 0.4 to 0.7 and attaining
0.8 for extreme same-day values of
Tlr’, or DT”‘,,,, and by each variable’s
degree of self-correlation, which falls
to about 0.5 after only three days. If
the overall measured value of a ther-
mal action is considered as an random
variable, the simplifying hypothesis of
independence no longer applies. For
example, the degree of self-correlation
Bridge condition Area Tmmax
(“(q
Before surfacing Ao 18.61
AI - 12.04
A2 1.60
After surfacing Ao 17.98
Al - 11.46
A2 2.17
Table I: Coefficients of the Fourier series that approaches the deterministic parts of the
mean effective temperatures and the vertical gradients
Stn~ctural Engineering International 2L2000
I
6
1990 1991 1987
Fig. 3: Time distribution of the daily maxima (red) and minima
(blue) for the vertical gradient of the bridge cross section (solid lines
represent deterministic components)
of Trn,rnaxis still 0.92 after ten days,
thus contradicting the usual assumption
that thermal actions are independent
when measured every three days [7].
The random parts of thermal actions
depend on many different casual vari-
ables, such as wind speed, air humidity
and cloud cover. Therefore, it was hy-
pothesised that, in conformity with the
Theorem of the Central Limit [lo],
Tm,maxy Tm,min, DT,+, and DTy,e are
Gaussian random variables.
Daily Extremes of T,,,
~d’*,max and Td’,,, *in were calculated
with a Fourier series expansion of the
type
T’d’(t)=A,,+ ~A,cos[2m(t-t,)/365]
?l=l
The series coefficients (Table I) were
calculated by means of the least square
method. Since T, is about 10” C for Ai
and about 2” C for A2, the series was
interrupted for n23. T(d)mmax and
T(*)m min were then determined via
Eq. (5).
T D Tymax
y;
14.95 1.82
- 10.18 - 1.62
1.32 0.19
15.02 2.01
- 10.15 - 2.01
1.83 0.29
urfacing works
* min
1988 1989 1990 1991
year
For sake of homogeneity, the proce-
dure was applied separately to the data
recorded before the bridge deck had
been asphalted (2 April 1987 - 10 June
1988) and then to the values recorded
after the surfacing work had been
completed (3 July 1988 - 31 July 1990).
The results are plotted in Figs. 2 and 3.
It can be seen that 13-mm-thick tarmac
surfacing has little influence on T,.
Daily Extremes of DTY
The linear vertical gradient DTy ex-
hibits daily and yearly periodic fea-
tures very similar to those of T,,,. DT,,
is consistently greater during the day
than at night and is always much high-
er in summer than in winter due to the
large amounts of solar radiation ab-
sorbed by the bridge deck in the fre-
quently cloudless summer days.
Decomposition of the daily extremes
(7)
of DT,, into a steady periodic deter-
ministic part and a random part was
performed using the same procedure
as for T,,,. Fig. 2 shows the measured
distributions of DT,,,,, and DTy,min
and the corresponding deterministic
parts, before and after asphalting. Irre-
spective of the presence of the tarmac
layer, the daily ranges of DT,, are
much higher in summer than in winter,
since the difference between the in-
DTy,min coming daytime solar radiation and
(‘C/m) the outgoing night-time thermal re-
irradiation is much greater in summer
- 0.24
than in winter.
- 0.35
0.19 In summer, the asphalted bridge ex-
0.72 hibits higher values of DT,,,,, and
- 1.11 DTy,min than the unsurfaced one be-
0.31 cause the dark colour of the asphalt
increases the absorption of incoming
energy, thus raising the temperature of
the concrete immediately underlying
Science and Technology 113

the tarmac much more than other re-
gions of the cross section. Eqs. (1 and
2) explain why this amplification sig-
nificantly influences DTY but not T,.
Probability Distributions of
the Random Variables
Figs. 4 and 5 show the observed occur-
rence frequencies of T, and DT,,, re-
spectively, together with the calculated
probability densities. The mean value
and standard deviation of each vari-
able were deduced through the best-
fitting linear interpolation, as per-
formed on a normalised probability
diagram of the cumulative frequencies.
The normal probability distributions
closely resemble the histograms of
Tm,max and Tm,min, thus confirming the
hypothesis of a Gaussian distribution.
Although the degree of approximation
is not as good for D T,,,,, and DTY minr
it is still acceptable at the distribution
tails. Other distributions that have
been used, such as a type-1 asymptotic
distribution, yielded a much worse
approximation.
0.2
0.18 a)
-8 -7 A-5-4-3-2-l 0 1 2 3
-7-f-54-3-2-1 0 1 2 3 4 5
T mmar (” (“C)
Fig. 4: Observed occurrence frequencies and
calculated probability densities of T,,,,, (a)
and T,,,i, (b)
Value T”‘m,m,, CC)
P - 0.340
0 2.547
Table 2: Components of random thermal actions
114 Science and Technology
1
From the mean values and standard
deviations of T,,,,,, Tm,min, DT,,,,, 0.8
and DTy,min (Table 2) it is possible to
estimate their respective mean fre-
quencies of exceeding (for the maxima)
or falling short of (for the minima) a
given threshold value and thereby esti-
Ol
mate the return period of a given value mar 20 may 5 jun 21 aug 7 sep 23
of T,,, or DTY. Because of the presence
date
of the periodic deterministic part, the
probability that a thermal action ex- Fig. 6: Probability that T,,.,, 2 25” C for
ceeds or falls short of a given threshold the Casilina bridge
value varies according to the day of the
similar to Eq. (8) apply for T,,,,,,.
year.
DT,,max and D Ty,min. Fig. 6 shows the
Let p(t) indicate the- probability that probability that T m.max -> 25” C for the
an event Tm,min(t) I T occurs on day t, Casilina bridge.
where i’is any given value. From Eq.
(6) it follows that for the random part Since p is time dependent, it follows
that the mean time between two
T”,,, min I T- T@jm min (t) must hold, and
events exceeding a given threshold
from the definition of probability den-
value s can be calculated as s = l/p(t).
sity it follows that
though only within short time intervals
(one or two weeks), where p is approx-
imately constant. For longer time in-
T (8) tervals, Eqs. (9 and 10) apply.
where f is the probability density of a
normalised Gaussian variable, CT the s= iPS” $PS (9)
s=o I s=o
standard deviation of T(‘),,min, and p
the mean value of T(‘)m,min. Relations L is the time interval in days, gl the
first day belonging to L, and pS the
probability of s above-threshold events
in L. Eqs. (9 and 10) show that the
time needed for calculation grows
exponentially, thus requiring the de-
gaussian PDF naussian PDF velopment of a simplified procedure
.s 0.2 p = 0.140 “C/m for calculating s.
5
0 0 = O.%Y “C/m
g 0.15
5
If the cumulative frequency distribu-
,G 0.1 tions of each random variable are
s known, large random samples of
B
h 0.05 T m,maxr Tm,mim DT,.,, and DTv.,in can
be artificially generated. By simulating
4 5 6 7 -2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 Xl.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 a number of years A, the generic mean
DT,.m.x ‘0 (T/m) frequency of exceeding a given thresh-
old can be estimated as the mean value
of the corresponding above-threshold
.z 0.25 event frequencies for each of the years.
9
2 0.2 Figs. 7-20 present the results obtained
2 by artificially simulating 2000 years.
,O.lS
8 fie calculated frequencies approxi-
B 0.1
t
B mate the frequencies observed on site
0.05 within a reasonably small margin of
error.
6 7 8 Y -1.5 -1 4.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
Proceeding in a similar fashion, ex-
DTy.,,” w (“C/m)
treme thermal actions for a 50-year re-
Fig. 5: Observed occurrence frequencies and
calculated probability densities of DT,,, turn period can be calculated, which in
Eurocode 1 are taken as characteristic
(4 DTy,min @)
design actions for ultimate limit states.
Similarly, extreme, frequent and qua-
T(“m,min (“Cl D T(‘)Y,,,, (‘C/m) D T(“y,min (‘C/m) si-permanent thermal actions (design
actions for serviceability limit states)
0.314 0.140 0.182 can also be calculated. For these val-
2.614 0.969 0.741 ues, the maxima have been obtained
by searching for those values having a
50% probability of being exceeded in
Structural Engineering International
Type of value Source of data AT, D T,vnax DTy.min UT,
m (Wm) (‘C/m)
50-year return period measured 39.1 - 3.2 42.3 7.67 -2.55 10.22
Eurocode 1 42.0 -3.8 45.8 4.17 -2.08 6.25
P, 91 n.g. n.g. 25.2 n.g. n.g. 7.38
Frequent (U;) measured 32.9 2.7 30.2 5.49 -0.96 6.45
Eurocode 1 n.g. n.g. 27.5 n.g. n.g. 3.75
18391 n.g. n.g. 15.9 n.g. n.g. 4.77
Quasi-permanent (Y,) measured 24.4 8.9 15.5 3.41 0.40 3.01
Eurocode 1 n.g. n.g. 22.9 n.g. ng. 3.13
P, 91 n.g. n.g. 13.6 n.g. n.g. 4.00

Table 3: Values for thermal action components and reduction coefficients Yt and Y’2 (n.g., not given)

spring and a 5% probability in sum- and between Tm,min and Ta,min in EU-
mer. Conversely, the minima have recode 1 are contained within the
39
been obtained from the values corre- dispersion bands of the experimental
results. Moreover, they closely ap- E
sponding to a 50% probability of not g 38
being exceeded in autumn and a 5% proach the interpolation lines of the
experimental results. 2
probability of not being exceeded in
winter. 37 /’
The daily minima of T, are more scat-
3 6
Table 3 presents thermal-action com- tered than the daily maxima. This can 1 10 100
ponents for a 50-year return period, as be attributed to the particular features Return period (years)
well as frequent and quasi-permanent of Central Italy’s climate, which is uni- Fig. 7: Return period of T,,,,,
values, for the Casilina bridge. These form in summer, with a nearly continu-
values are compared with the corre- ous succession of clear, sunny days
sponding values recommended in Eu- with almost the same climatic features.
recode 1 for concrete box girder In winter, however, the climate is quite
bridges and with values found on a variable, with cold and/or rainy days
concrete box girder bridge in Ger- intermingled with relatively warm,
many [8, 91. In Eurocode 1, frequent sunny ones.
and quasi-permanent thermal-action If the empirical Eurocode 1 correlation
components have to be derived by ap- is compared with the experimental in-
plying the reduction coefficients I,N~ terpolation line of the maxima, a good 1 10 100
and vz to the values for a 50-year re- agreement can be noticed despite the
Return period (years)
turn period. w1 is the ratio between latitude difference between the UK and
frequent and characteristic thermal Central Italy. This can be attributed to Fig. 8: Return period of T,,min
actions. and r,u2 the ratio between qua- the fact that in both cases intense solar
si-permanent. and characteristic ther- radiation during clear sky conditions
mal actions [ll]. was the governing climatic agent. 7.8
The comparison reveals that differ- However, the Eurocode 1 correlation $6
ences in the climatic conditions and does not resemble the experimental 57.4
methods of statistical data analysis interpolation line of the minima as i7.2
may lead to non-negligible differences closely. This may be attributed to the s7
in the resulting estimates of w1 and ~2, fact that winter days in the UK are of-
especially for quasi-permanent actions. ten cloudy with very little direct solar
6.6
1 10
radiation. It could therefore be argued
Return period (years)
Validity of the Relationship that if the winter conditions in Central
between T,,, and T, Italy were not interspersed with se- Fig. 9: Return period of DT,,,
quences of clear sunny days, then an
agreement between Eurocode 1 and
The results of the monitoring pro- the experimental data would be at-
gramme and the statistical processing tained.
of the measured random samples of
Tm.max and Tm.min enabled a reliability
check to be performed on the empiri- Conclusions
cal correlation given in Eurocode 1 be-
tween T,,, and T,. This correlation had Analysis of temperature measure-
been derived from studies on bridges ments taken every two hours on a con-
1 10 100
in the UK [12]. crete bridge over a three-year period Return period (years)
Figs. 11 and 12 show that the linear has revealed that the time distribu-
relationships between T,,,,, and Ta,max tions of extreme daily thermal actions Fig. 10: Return period of DTy,,min

Stmctural Engineering International 2/2000 Science and Technology 115


0 5 10 15
daily maximum of the shade air temperature (“C)
Fig. 11: Measured daily maxima of T,,, versus T, compared with the
Eurocode 1 relationship
may be considered as the superimpo-
sition of random oscillations, due to
incoming atmospheric perturbations,
upon a steady yearly periodic oscilla-
tion. This periodic variation is assumed
to be deterministic because it depends
solely on the Earth’s revolution around
the Sun.
The random parts of the sampled ther-
mal actions were subjected to separate
statistical treatment. Analysis of the
periodic yearly oscillations of the de-
terministic part of each thermal action
reveals that the probability that a
given thermal action exceeds a fixed
threshold value is not constant over
the year, but is approximately constant
for limited time intervals.
Assuming a normal distribution for
the random parts of the measured
thermal actions, the mean value and
variance of each distribution were
estimated. These values were then
used to simulate the random oscilla-
tions of long-term thermal actions
in order to estimate the thermal ac-
tions expected to occur with a given
return period and their combination
coefficients.
116 Science and Technology
40
G 25
L
,1 20
F 15
10
5
0
20 25 30 35 40
Fig. 12: Measured daily minima of T,,, versus T, compared with the
Eurocode 1 relationship
Comparison of the analytical results
with the empirical relationships given
in Eurocode 1 between the daily ex-
tremes of the effective mean bridge
temperature and the shade air temper-
ature reveals an acceptable degree of
reliability of the Eurocode 1 standard
prescriptions.
References
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Structural Engineering International XX300