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These survey results represent the opinions of 45 of the nation’s top money
managers, investment strategists, and professional economists.
This is not intended to be a scientific poll and its results should not be
extrapolated beyond those who did accept our invitation.
Reserve hike or cut rates (assuming 25- 8. President Trump's corporate tax cuts:
basis point moves) in …? 9. How have the Trump administration's
3. Currently, the Fed's balance sheet is deregulation efforts affected economic
around $4 trillion. At what level do you growth?
expect the Fed to stop reducing its balance 10. When comparing the potential benefits
sheet and when do you expect the Fed to of deregulation, such as economic growth, to
reach this level? the potential costs, such as environmental
4. The Fed has indicated that it will stop its damage or reduced safety for consumers
balance sheet reduction later this year. I ... and banks, the ...?
5. Has the Federal Reserve sufficiently 11. If President Trump nominates STEPHEN
explained its monetary policy and the MOORE to the Federal Reserve, WILL he be
economic reasons for its balance sheet confirmed by the Senate?
decisions?
For those answering “no”: Why not?
6. What is the probability the Federal
12. If President Trump nominates STEPHEN
Reserve embarks on additional quantitative
MOORE to the Federal Reserve, SHOULD he
easing in the ....
be confirmed by the Senate?
13. Regarding trade negotiations between 23. Where do you expect the fed funds
China and the U.S., which of the following is target rate will be on … ?
most likely this year? 24. At what fed funds level will the Federal
14. How have your 2019 and 2020 forecasts Reserve stop hiking rates in the current
for GDP and inflation been affected by cycle? That is, what will be the terminal
recently enacted U.S. tariffs and retaliatory rate?
tariffs by other nations? (Expressed as 25. When do you believe fed funds will
incremental change of forecast in
reach its terminal rate?
percentage points)
26. What is your forecast for the Q4/Q4
15. What is your estimate of the long-run
percentage change in real U.S. GDP for … ?
potential growth rate of the U.S. economy?
27. What is your forecast for the year-over-
16. Has your estimate of potential growth year percentage change in the headline U.S.
changed as a result of the late 2017-tax cut?
CPI for …?
17. (For those answering yes to previous
28. What do you expect the U.S.
question) By how much?
unemployment rate will be for:
18. By how much will the current global 29. What is the single biggest threat facing
slowdown increase or decrease U.S. GDP
the U.S. economic recovery? (Percentage
growth this year?
points)
19. What role are trade tensions and tariffs
30. In the next 12 months, what percent
playing in the global economic slowdown? probability do you place on the U.S. entering
20. Another government shutdown this year recession? (0=No chance of recession,
is: 100=Certainty of recession)
21. Where do you expect the S&P 500 stock 31. What is your primary area of interest?
index will be on … ?
Comments:
22. What do you expect the yield on the 10-
year Treasury note will be on … ?
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Raise interest
rates 0%
Lower interest
rates 0%
Keep rates
100%
unchanged
Don't know/
unsure 0%
2.50 2.63
2.52 2.52 2.45
2.48 2.49
2.39
2.26
2.00
1.81
Average
1.50
2019 Hikes
1.20
1.00 0.87
0.74
0.76
2020 Hikes 0.69
0.60
0.71
0.50 2020 Cuts 0.66
0.63
4. The Fed has indicated that it will stop its balance sheet
reduction later this year. Do you agree or disagree with
the decision?
Mar 20 Apr 30
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
55%
Agree
58%
Disagree:
Reductions 41%
should
continue 35%
beyond…
Disagree:
Reductions 0%
should
end 2%
earlier
Disagree:
For some 2%
other 2%
reason
Don't 2%
know/
unsure 2%
Yes 53%
No 44%
Don't
know/ 2%
unsure
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
0%
(No chance)
10%
20%
Averages
30%
Next year:
40%
11.0%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
(Certainty)
100%
90%
80%
70%
66%
63% 61% Approve
58% 59%
60% 57%
53%
52% 51%
50%
50% 54%
43%
40% 36% 43%
31% 32% 32%
29% 30%
30%
24% 30%
29%
26%
20%
23% Disapprove
22% 21%
10%
0%
Jun Jul Sep Mar May Jun Jul Sep Nov Dec Jan Mar Apr
13 25 19 20 1 12 31 25 7 18 29 20 30
'17 '18 '19
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Don't know/unsure 9%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Very
positive effect 33%
Somewhat
positive effect 49%
No effect 9%
Somewhat
negative effect 5%
Very
negative effect 0%
Don't
know/ unsure 5%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Benefits outweigh
the costs 53%
Costs outweigh
the benefits 23%
Yes 51%
33%
Apr 8
No 19% Apr 30
51%
Don't
know/ 30%
16%
unsure
Too
political, 15% of all respondents
threatening 35% of all respondents 71%
Fed's…
Other
14% 7% of all respondents
Other responses:
• He is not an economist, has taken some • He is unethical. He is dogmatic. He plays fast
extreme policy positions. and loose with numbers which is a no-no at
• Moore has behaved terribly. Not worthy of Fed the Fed. His 'talents', which play well for Op-Ed
governor status. writing (as long as no one is fact-checking),
play very badly for the central bank that must
have credibility instead of promoting
incredulousness.
Yes 34%
28%
Apr 8
No 60% Apr 30
63%
Don't
know/ 6%
9%
unsure
Too
political, 47% of all respondents 79%
threatening
Fed's 35% of all respondents 69%
independence
7% 4% of all respondents
Other
8% 5% of all respondents
Other responses:
• There are many people who are more qualified, including many of the people who are responding to this survey.
• Dogmatic, catastrophe, more...
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
New U.S. 2%
tariffs imposed
on China 0%
An agreement
to continue 17%
talks without
a new agreement
19%
2%
Don't know/unsure
5%
14. How have your 2019 and 2020 forecasts for GDP and
inflation been affected by recently enacted U.S. tariffs
and retaliatory tariffs by other nations? (Expressed as
incremental change of forecast in percentage points)
Average responses:
Mar 20 2.34%
Survey
Apr 30 2.31%
Yes 38%
36%
Mar 20
No 60% Apr 30
62%
Don't
know/ 2%
unsure 2%
-2.0%
-1.8%
-1.6%
-1.4%
-1.2%
-1.0%
Averages:
-0.8%
Mar 20
-0.6% -0.32%
-0.4%
-0.2%
Apr 30
-0.26%
+0.0%
+0.2%
+0.4%
+0.6%
+0.8%
+1.0%
+1.2%
+1.4%
+1.6%
+1.8%
+2.0%
Significant 45%
role
31%
Modest 48%
role
64%
No role 7%
at all
2%
Don't 0%
know/
unsure 2%
7%
Likely
7%
79%
Unlikely
79%
Don't 14%
know/
unsure
14%
21. Where do you expect the S&P 500 stock index will
be on … ?
December 31, 2019 December 31, 2020
3,200
3,100
3038 3028
3005
3,000 2975
2946
2928 2936 2925
2,900 2974
2846
2879 2836
2862
2861
2,800
2774
2750
2,700
2,600
2,500
Dec Jan March May Jun Jul Sep Nov Dec Jan Mar Apr
12 30 20 1 12 31 25 7 18 29 20 30
2018 2019
Survey Dates
4.0%
3.54% 3.56%
3.54%
3.51% 3.53%
3.5% 3.44%
3.45% 3.29%
3.24%
3.17%
3.06%
3.16% 2.89%
3.0%
3.03%
2.92%
2.75%
2.5%
2.0%
Dec Jan March May Jun Jul Sep Nov Dec Jan Mar Apr
12 30 20 1 12 31 25 7 18 29 20 30
2018 2019
Survey Dates
23. Where do you expect the fed funds target rate will
be on … ?
3.1%
Dec 31, 2019 Dec 31, 2020 Dec 31, 2021
3.04%
3.01%
2.98%
3.0% 2.99%
2.87% 2.98%
2.90%
2.93%
2.9% 2.86% 2.95%
2.92%
2.87%
2.85%
2.8%
2.67% 2.67%
2.65%
2.60% 2.48%
2.6%
2.56%
2.56%
2.54% 2.51%
2.5%
2.49%
2.49%
2.44%
2.4%
2.42% 2.41%
2.36%
2.3%
2.2% 2.22%
24. At what fed funds level will the Federal Reserve stop
hiking rates in the current cycle? That is, what will be the
terminal rate?
3.6%
3.4% 3.34%
3.30% 3.29%
3.24%
3.20%
3.17% 3.27%
3.2%
3.18% 3.21%
3.11%
3.16% 3.06% 3.11%
2.98%
3.0% 3.04% 2.95% 2.94%
2.98%
2.92%
2.94%
2.91% 2.86%
2.85% 2.85%
2.8%
2.79% 2.73% 2.80% 2.81%
2.65%
2.69%
2.58% 2.48%
2.56%
2.29%
2.2%
2.0%
Sep 16
Jul 28
Jul 26
Sep 20
Jul 25
Sep 19
Jul 31
Sep 25
Apr 28
Apr 26
Apr 30
Sept 16
May 2
March 20
May 1
Aug 20
Dec 16
Mar 17
Dec 13
Mar 14
Dec 12
Dec 18
Mar 20
Jan 27, '15
Aug 25
Dec 15
Mar 15
Aug 24
Jun 16
Jun 14
Jun 13
Jun 12
Jan 26 '16
Nov 1
Jan 31 '17
Jan 30 '18
Nov 7
Jan 29 '19
Oct 28
Oct 27
Oct 31
Survey Dates
2.7%
2.6%
2.5%
2.44%
2.4% 2.35%
2.3%
2.33%
2.31%
2.2%
2.1% 2.05%
2.0%
1.98%
1.9%
1.92%
1.8%
1.81%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
Dec 18 Jan 29 '19 Mar 20 Apr 30
Survey Dates
2.6%
2.54%
2.51%
2.5%
2.48%
2.46%
2.41%
2.4% 2.40%
2.40%
2.38%
2.3%
2.26%
2.23%
2.2% 2.20%
2.13%
2.1%
2.08%
2.01%
2.05%
2.0%
1.9%
1.90%
1.8%
1.7%
Dec Jan March May Jun Jul Sep Nov Dec Jan Mar Apr
12 30 20 1 12 31 25 7 18 29 20 30
2018 2019
Survey Dates
4.40%
4.20%
4.00% 3.96%
3.93% 3.93%
3.89%
3.79% 3.80%
3.80%
3.77%
3.73%
3.67% 3.66%
3.60% 3.64%
3.61%
3.40%
3.20%
Jun 12 Jul 31 Sep 25 Nov 7 Dec 18 Jan 29 Mar Apr
'19 20 30
Survey Dates
Overvaluation of equities
Tax/regulatory policies
Trump's temperament
Global econ weakness
Rise in interest rates
Don't know/unsure
Immigration policy
Worker shortage
Slow job growth
Debt ceiling
Deflation
Inflation
Deficits
Other
Survey Date
Apr 30 2 3 2 1
‘13 0 1 0 0 2 2 1 0
1 2 2 1
Jun 18
5 8 0 3 3 0 3 0
3 2 1 1
Jul 30
8 0 2 0 2 2 0 4 4
2 2 1
Sep 17
4 7 2 2 0 4 8 7 2
2 2 1
Oct 29
8 9 4 3 3 3 8 3 0
3 2 1
Dec 17
5 2 9 2 0 2 5 2 2
Jan 28 2 3 1 2
'14 7 1 0 2 0 0 2 1 0
1 2 2 1
Mar 18
0 3 6 3 5 0 5 8 0
2 2 1 1
Apr 28
3 6 1 3 5 0 8 8 3 0
1 2 1 1 1 1
Jul 29
2 9 2 6 3 0 2 2 2 3
2 2 1 1
Sep 16
6 6 9 6 3 0 6 1 1 3
3 1 1 1
Oct 28
1 8 5 3 3 0 0 8 8 3
4 1 1 1
Dec 16
0 4 4 3 6 0 3 4 3 0
Jan 27 1 1 4 1
'15 0 3 9 0 0 0 6 6 1 6 6 0
Overvaluation of equities
Tax/regulatory policies
Trump's temperament
Global econ weakness
Rise in interest rates
Don't know/unsure
Immigration policy
Worker shortage
Slow job growth
Debt ceiling
Deflation
Inflation
Deficits
Other
Survey Date
1 2 1 1
Mar 17
6 4 0 3 6 0 6 8 8 7 4 0
1 1 2 1
April 28
3 1 8 3 0 0 6 1 8 8 9 3
1 1 2 2 1
Jun 16
3 7 3 0 0 0 4 5 2 6 1 0
2 1 2
Jul 28
6 1 9 0 0 0 2 6 9 9 9 0
1 4 1
Sept 16
0 6 2 0 4 0 0 8 5 8 4 2
1 4 1
Oct 27
0 8 5 3 8 0 8 3 1 0 5 0
1 1 4 1
Dec 15
0 0 5 0 0 0 8 0 4 5 3 5 0
Jan 26 1 4 2
'16 0 0 5 0 3 0 0 5 4 8 0 3 3
2 3 2
Mar 15
5 1 3 0 0 0 5 5 3 5 0 3 1 0
2 3 1
Apr 26
0 2 2 2 2 0 0 7 6 9 0 7 1 2
2 2 1 1
Jun 14
0 8 5 3 0 0 3 0 8 8 0 5 3 0 0
2 1 2
Jul 26
2 0 7 2 2 0 2 0 2 7 0 7 7 7 2
1 3 1 1
Aug 24
3 9 3 3 0 0 3 3 1 3 3 6 4 1 0
1 1 3 1
Sep 20
0 6 1 3 0 0 0 3 0 8 5 5 8 1 0
2 3
Nov 1
3 7 8 0 3 0 8 3 2 3 0 0 5 8 0
Overvaluation of equities
Tax/regulatory policies
Trump's temperament
Global econ weakness
Rise in interest rates
Don't know/unsure
Immigration policy
Worker shortage
Slow job growth
Debt ceiling
Deflation
Inflation
Deficits
Other
Survey Date
1 2
Dec 13
5 9 2 7 0 0 7 7 9 0 2 7 8 5 2
Jan 31 1 1 5 1
'17 0 5 3 3 0 0 0 3 0 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
4 1
Mar 14
0 7 2 2 0 0 0 7 4 7 0 2 4 7 4 3 0
2 2 1
May 2
0 8 3 3 0 0 0 5 4 5 0 0 5 6 8 3 0
2 1 1
Jun 13
0 5 5 5 0 3 0 3 1 8 5 0 0 6 8 8 3 0
1 1 2 1
Jul 25
0 5 5 3 3 0 0 0 3 8 5 0 0 0 5 8 8 0
1 1 3
Sep 19
0 2 2 0 2 0 5 2 7 0 7 2 0 2 2 7 7 0
2 1 1 1
Oct 31
0 7 2 2 0 0 0 5 3 5 0 0 2 9 2 4 9 0
1 1 1 1 1
Dec 12
0 7 5 2 0 0 0 7 2 0 2 0 2 2 7 5 5 2 0
Jan 30 2 1 1
‘18 0 3 3 8 0 0 0 8 8 0 0 0 3 4 5 3 8 8 0
4 1
Mar 20
0 3 3 8 0 0 0 8 0 3 3 0 0 7 3 0 8 6 0
2 2 1 1
May 1
0 0 3 8 0 0 3 2 5 8 0 0 0 3 5 3 1 1 0
1 3 1
Jun 12
3 0 3 1 0 0 0 3 5 5 3 0 0 5 3 0 8 8 4 0
Jul 31 5 1
0 0 3 8 0 0 3 5 5 3 3 0 0 3 3 0 0 0 8 0
2 2
Sep 25
2 2 2 9 0 0 2 2 7 4 0 2 0 6 4 0 4 2 9 2
Overvaluation of equities
Tax/regulatory policies
Trump's temperament
Global econ weakness
Rise in interest rates
Don't know/unsure
Immigration policy
Worker shortage
Slow job growth
Debt ceiling
Deflation
Inflation
Deficits
Other
Survey Date
1 1 1 3
Nov 7
0 0 3 7 0 0 0 0 3 7 3 0 0 4 3 0 0 7 1 0
1 1 3 1
Dec 18
0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 7 7 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 9 7 2
Jan 29
‘19 2 2 1 1
0 0 2 0 0 0 2 2 7 0 0 0 0 9 2 0 4 6 6 0
3 2 1
Mar 20
5 2 2 0 0 0 0 5 5 2 0 0 0 7 0 2 2 7 0 0
3 1 1 1
Apr 30 5 0 5 0 0 0 0 7 5 3 0 0 0 7 0 0 2 5 2 0
Other responses:
40%
36.1%
35%
This survey:
34.0%
21.7%
30%
28.5% 28.8%
26.0%
26.1%
25.9%
25.3%
25.5%
25% 24.4%
24.1% 23.5% 24.4%
23.2%
22.9% 22.9%
22.1%
22.2% 21.7%
21.6%
20.6% 21.1% 19.3%
20.4%
20% 18.9%
18.4% 18.8%
20.3% 18.2% 18.5% 18.6%
17.3%
18.6% 18.1%
19.1% 16.9% 16.8%
16.9%
17.6% 16.2% 16.4% 17.4% 16.5%
16.7%
15.1% 16.4%
16.2%
15% 15.1%
15.3% 15.0% 14.9%
15.2% 15.2%
14.6% 14.7%
13.6% 14.4%
13.7%
13.0%
13.8%
14.3%
10%
Jun-12
Jun-13
Jun-14
Jun-15
Jun-16
Jun-17
Jun-18
Oct-11
Oct-12
Oct-13
Oct-14
Oct-15
Oct-16
Oct-17
Oct-18
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Feb-12
Apr-12
Feb-13
Apr-13
Feb-14
Apr-14
Feb-15
Apr-15
Feb-16
Apr-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Feb-18
Apr-18
Feb-19
Apr-19
Aug-11
Aug-12
Aug-13
Aug-14
Aug-15
Aug-16
Aug-17
Aug-18
Other
Currencies 17%
0%
Equities
19%
Comments: