n 3

W1 0.01785147 W2 0.00069903 W3 0.9794518 0.9980023

t Dt At Ft et [et] et^2
1 200
2 220
3 210 209.41
4 198 198.01 209.41 -11.41 11.41 130.16
5 197 196.84 198.01 -1.01 1.01 1.01
6 187 186.83 196.84 -9.84 9.84 96.81
7 215 214.23 186.83 28.17 28.17 793.56
8 213 212.11 214.23 -1.23 1.23 1.51
9 210 209.67 212.11 -2.11 2.11 4.46
10 220 219.43 209.67 10.33 10.33 106.67
11 186 186.08 219.43 -33.43 33.43 1117.47
12 179 179.38 186.08 -7.08 7.08 50.14
-3.07 11.62 255.75
BIAS DAM EMC

n 3
W1 0.1710746 W2 0.06597405 W3 0.74212596 1

t Dt At Ft et [et] et^2
1 200
2 220
3 210 204.58
4 198 198.43 204.58 -6.58 6.58 43.24
5 197 195.19 198.43 -1.43 1.43 2.05
6 187 185.65 195.19 -8.19 8.19 67.03
7 215 205.60 185.65 29.35 29.35 861.59
8 213 204.25 205.60 7.40 7.40 54.82
9 210 206.68 204.25 5.75 5.75 33.08
10 220 213.56 206.68 13.32 13.32 177.42
11 186 188.48 213.56 -27.56 27.56 759.62
12 179 182.75 188.48 -9.48 9.48 89.78
0.29 12.12 232.07
BIAS DAM EMC
 250

200

150
Unidades

Dt
100 Ft

50

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Tiempo

250

200

150
Unidades

Dt
100 Ft

50

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Tiempo
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Tiempo
 Tabla resumen

W1 0.01785147 W1 0.1710746
W2 0.00069903 W2 0.06597405
W3 0.9794518 W3 0.74212596
DAM 11.62 DAM 12.12
EMC 255.75 EMC 232.07

Adolfo Pérez Flórez y Andrés Coronado

drés Coronado
 Ao 3245
To 0
α 0.56289394
β 0.43910762
1.00200156
t Dt At Tt Ft
0 3245 0
1 3245 3245 0
2 3408 3336.75171 40.288876025 3245
3 3610 3508.17 97.87 3377.04
4 3715 3667.37 124.80 3606.04
5 4025 3923.23 182.35 3792.17
6 4134 4121.58 189.37 4105.58
7 4279 4292.97 181.48 4310.95
8 4486 4480.95 184.33 4474.44
9 4865 4777.70 233.70 4665.28
10 5480 5275.17 349.52 5011.40
11 5970 5819.06 434.87 5624.69
12 6310 6285.49 448.73 6253.94
13 6680 6703.70 435.33 6734.22
14 7150 7145.20 438.04 7139.03

Resumen

Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente d 0.97522252
Coeficiente 0.95105897
R^2 ajustado 0.94698055
Error típico 296.352273
Observacione 14

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF Valor crítico de F
Regresión 1 20480100.3 20480100.3 233.193023 3.1671E-09
Residuos 12 1053896.04 87824.67
Total 13 21533996.4

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95% Inferior 95,0%
Intercepción 2560.93407 167.296389 15.3077666 3.0803E-09 2196.42655 2925.4415838 2196.42654811
Variable X 1 300.037363 19.6479644 15.2706589 3.1671E-09 257.228126 342.84659956 257.228125711
 8000

7000

6000

et [et] et^2 et/Dt [et]/Dt 5000

Unidad
4000

163 163 26569 0.048 0.048 3000

232.96 232.96 54270.09 0.065 0.065 2000
108.96 108.96 11871.91 0.029 0.029
232.83 232.83 54207.62 0.058 0.058 1000
28.42 28.42 807.73 0.007 0.007 0
-31.95 31.95 1020.84 -0.007 0.007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
11.56 11.56 133.59 0.003 0.003 Tiempo
199.72 199.72 39887.71 0.041 0.041
468.60 468.60 ### 0.086 0.086
345.31 345.31 ### 0.058 0.058
56.06 56.06 3143.11 0.009 0.009
-54.22 54.22 2940.18 -0.008 0.008
10.97 10.97 120.38 0.002 0.002
136.32 149.58 41061.15 0.0299 0.032
BIAS MAD MSE 2.99% 3.23%
MPE MAPE

Superior 95,0%
2925.442
342.8466
 Dt
Ft

9 10 11 12 13 14
 α 1β 0.00329282
Año t Dt At Tt
-3
-2
-1
0 232 0
1 150 232 0
2 255 232 0
2007
3 275 232 0
4 248 232 0
5 141 218.080 -0.05
6 246 223.812 0.02
2008
7 267 225.251 0.00
8 260 243.226 0.06
9 140.5 217.307 -0.13
10 256 232.910 0.07
2009
11 298.8 252.079 0.07
12 287 268.484 0.11
13 175 270.667 -0.12
14 300 272.941 0.08
2010
15 393.5 331.971 0.26
16 404.3 378.216 0.26
17 190 293.867 -0.40
18 318 289.318 0.06
2011
19 464 391.447 0.60
20 479.7 448.752 0.45

Resumen

Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente d 0.64459429
Coeficiente 0.4155018
R^2 ajustado 0.38302967
Error típico 77.0796759
Observacione 20

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF Valor crítico de F
Regresión 1 76022.4722 76022.4722 12.7956464 0.00215417
Residuos 18 106942.976 5941.27643
Total 19 182965.448

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95%

Intercepción 165.173684 35.8059341 4.61302543 0.00021598 89.9482082 240.39916
Variable X 1 10.6920301 2.98902162 3.57710027 0.00215417 4.41232867 16.9717315
 ϒ 0 1.00329282
St Ft et [et]
0.64655
1.09914
1.18534
1.06897
0.64655
1.09914
1.18534
1.06897
0.64655 96.98 121.10 121.097241
1.09914 280.28 -56.47 56.4684077
1.18534 325.97 -100.72 100.718918
1.06897 265.10 -21.88 21.8776418
0.64655 91.19 126.11 126.113238
1.09914 270.37 -37.46 37.4573823
1.18534 316.48 -64.40 64.4029063
1.06897 277.87 -9.38 9.38389344
0.64655 90.93 179.74 179.74143
1.09914 281.30 -8.36 8.36098551
1.18534 354.10 -22.13 22.1297086
1.06897 306.67 71.54 71.5438326
0.64655 113.23 180.64 180.640322 Al buscar minimizar los errores MAD obtiene como
1.09914 329.66 -40.34 40.3386059 resultado la exactitud de los valores estimados de
-74.68 las series de tiempo de la demanda real y el
1.18534 466.12 74.6753643
pronostico.
1.06897 431.90 16.85 16.8520427
16.26 70.7376201
BIAS MAD
Inferior 95,0%
89.9482082
4.41232867
 600

500

400

300 Dt
Ft
200

100

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

obtiene como
estimados de
eal y el