Principles & Practices of Management 21

Unit-2: Planning Process

Notes
Structure
2.0 Unit Objectives

2.1 Introduction

2.2 Planning: An Overview

2.3 Importance of Planning

2.4 Principles of Effective Planning

2.5 Forecasting

2.6 Summary

2.7 Questions and Exercises

2.8 Further Reading

2.0 Unit Objectives

In this chapter the concept of planning has been discussed. Apart from the importance
and principles of effective planning forecasting has been also discussed. It explains:

 Overview of Planning

 Importance and Benefits of Planning

 The principles of effective planning

 Concept and Techniques of Forecasting

2.1 Introduction
Planning is the first of the four primary management functions and sets of a direction
for the organization. Planning is undertaken after the mission of the organization is defined
and its goals and objectives are established. It involves a set of decisions required to
initiate a set of activities that are undertaken to achieve the goals and objectives of the
organization, consistent with its mission. The successful implementation of policies,
procedures and rules, as prescribed during the planning process, ensures the success
of the organization. Planning is required at all levels of management. Strategic planning,
undertaken by top management focuses on where the organization will be in the distant
future, Tactical planning emphasizes on how it will be done. Operational plans are short
range plans and specify the operational aspects of the activities. Of course, all such plans
should have contingency plans to modify the existing plans and change them, if necessary.

2.2 Planning : An Overview

Planning is a critical managerial activity. It is the process determining how the
organization can get where it wants to go. It is a primary function of management because
all the other functions depend upon how the organization plans to achieve its objectives.

Planning is a decision-making activity requiring the process of ascertaining objectives

and deciding on activities to attain these objectives. In planning, managers assess the
future, determine the goals of the organization and develop the overall strategies to achieve
these goals. The extent and complexity of planning would depend upon the complexity and
multiplicity of objectives. Consider, for example, the planning undertaken by the Atlanta
Amity Directorate of Distance and Online Education
22 Principles & Practices of Management

Committee for the Olympic Games (ACOG) held in Atlanta, Georgia in 1996. While the
planning process started more than five years before the due date of the games, consider
Notes the challenging task faced by ACOG in 1993, as reported by Business Week.

Staging the Asian Games in New Delhi in 1982 required extensive planning for years
before the games, in building the stadium, new roadways, flyovers and the residential Asiad
Village for participating athletes from all over the world. Without proper and detailed planning,
success for such colossal events cannot be assured. Similarly organizing Commonwealth
Games in Delhi in 2010 require extensive planning and forecasting. Earlier in Delhi
construction of one flyover used to cause snarling traffic jams, however it is the result of
proper planning by Metro that traffic is smooth despite so much of construction in Delhi.

Planning is particularly important because of scarcely all resources and an uncertain

environment, with a fierce competition for these resources. The basic purpose of
planning is to reduce the risk of uncertainties and to initiate a coordinated effort within
the organization for the purpose of organizational success. It also involves the process
of preparing for change and the dynamics of the environment.

As such the planning function has three characteristics. First, Planning is anticipatory
in nature. This means that a decision has to be made now as to what to do and how,
before it is actually done. Second, Planning is a system of decisions. It involves a process
of making decisions, which will define as to what is to be achieved in the future and the
formation of action plans for achievement of goals. Third, Planning is focused on desired
future results. It is a means of ensuring that the important organizational objectives are
accomplished as and when desired.

2.3 Importance Of Planning

While planning does not guarantee success in organizational objectives, there is
evidence that companies that engaged in formal planning consistently performed better
than those with none or limited formal planning and improved their own performance
over a period of time. It is very rare for an organization to succeed solely by luck or
circumstances. Some of the reasons as to why planning is considered a vital managerial
function are given below:

Amity Directorate of Distance and Online Education

Principles & Practices of Management 23
1. Planning is essential in modern business: The growing complexity of the modern
business with rapid technological changes, dynamic changes in consumer preferences
and growing tough competition necessitates orderly operations, not only in the current
Notes
environment but also in the future environment. Since planning takes a future outlook
it takes into account the possible future developments.
2. Planning affects performance: A number of empirical studies provide evidence
of organizational success being a function of formal planning, the success being
measured by such factors as returns on investment, sales volume, and growth in
earnings per share and so on. An investigation of thirty-six firms in various industrial
products like machinery, steel, oil, chemicals and drugs revealed that companies that
engaged in formal planning consistently performed better than those with no formal
planning.
3. Planning puts focus on objectives: The effectiveness of formal planning is primarily
based upon clarity and specificity of objectives. Objectives provide a direction and
all planning decisions are directed towards achievement of these objectives. Plans
continuously reinforce the importance of these objectives by focusing on them. This
ensures maximum utility of managerial time and efforts.
4. Planning anticipates problems and uncertainties: A significant aspect of any formal
planning process is collection of relevant information for the purpose of forecasting
the future as accurately as possible. This would minimize the chances of haphazard
decisions. Since the future needs of the organization are anticipated in advance,
the proper acquisition and allocation of resources can be planned, thus minimizing
wastage and ensuring optimal utility of these resources.
5. Planning is necessary to facilitate control: Controlling involves the continual
analysis and measurement of actual operations against the established standards.
These standards are set in the light of objectives to be achieved. Periodic reviews of
operations can determine whether the plans are being implemented correctly. Well-
developed plans can aid the process of control in two ways:
A. First, the planning process establishes a system of advance warning of possible
deviations from the expected performance. The deviations in production, sales,
profits and so on may come to light during periodic investigations and hence
remedial action can be taken before any harm is done.

B. Second, contribution of planning to the control process is that it provides

quantitative data which could make it easier to compare the actual performance
in quantitative terms, not only with the expectations of the organization but also
with the industry statistics or market forecasts.

6. Planning helps in the process of decision making: Since planning specifies the
actions and steps to be taken in order to accomplish organizational objectives, it
serves as a basis for decision making about future activities. It also helps managers
to make routine decisions about current activities since the objectives, plans, policies;
schedules and so on are clearly laid down.
Advantages and Potential Disadvantages of Planning are as follows.

Advantages
1. Planning gives manages some purpose and direction. Since planning is future
oriented, it forces managers to look beyond the present. Also, it creates a unity of
purpose, since the objectives are formally expressed and the methods and procedures
to obtain these objectives clearly defined.

Amity Directorate of Distance and Online Education

24 Principles & Practices of Management

2. Proper planning helps in the process of motivation. If plans are properly communicated
to all levels of the organization, then every one can feel involved in carrying them
Notes out. When people get involved, their sense of belonging increases and thus they are
highly motivated.
3. Planning provides a framework for decision making. Knowing the organizational
objectives and the methods to achieve these objectives eliminates ambiguity in the
decision making process. Furthermore, planning provides for feedback, periodic
evaluation of programs and indication for any deviation so that corrective action can
be taken, hence making the decision making process a little easier. Also, systematic
planning requires an understanding and evaluation of many variables which influence
events, hence it is highly unlikely that an important variable will be overlooked which
could adversely affect either the decision process or the operation.
4. Proper planning results in effective utilization of organizational resources. Since planning
involves the identification of such resources for optimal utility, there is no waste or minimum
waste of these resources. This will also reduce unproductive work, idle time of workers,
downtime for machines, and this would logically result in minimizing cost of operations.
5. Since accurate forecast of future events is an integral part of effective planning, it
reduces the elements of risks and uncertainty. Also, since planning is done in advance
of actions, it prevents hasty judgments and haphazard decisions and results in
disciplined thinking.
6. It improves the competitive strength of the company in two ways. First, since the
operations are planned in advance: the company is able to take its time in shopping
around for the best and competitive rates of raw materials, equipment and part and
human resources. Second, proper planning gives the company an advantageous
edge if it decides to make changes in its line of products or expansion in its plant
capacity or changes in methodology.
7. Formal planning forces managers to examine all areas of the organization from all
angles and efficiently coordinate the activities of all these areas. Without this process,
these managers may ignore or overlook some critical aspect due to time pressures
or other factors, thus affecting the outcome in a negative way.

Disadvantages
1. Planning is expensive and time consuming. A good deal of time, energy and capital
is involved in setting up the planning machinery for the purpose of gathering and
analyzing data and testing of various alternatives in order to select the one which is
most appropriate. Accordingly, the cost of planning and the benefits derived from it
must be adequately balanced. Sometimes, proper planning takes up so much time
that some useful opportunities can be lost if they require immediate action and such
immediate action cannot be taken without proper planning.
2. Planning itself can be a hindrance to innovation. In a planned set-up, every operation
is pre-planned. This means simply proceeding according to plans and following the
rules mechanically. This does not leave any provision for a manager’s innovation and
creativity. This problem can be overcome to some degree, however, by making the
plans more flexible in order to accommodate any changes generated by new ideas.
3. Planning can sometimes be very frustrating because it requires an extremely detailed,
careful and analytical thought process. Accordingly, it is more of an intellectual
exercise. It requires a high level of imagination and analytical ability in addition to
total commitment. The talents required and the maintenance of high quality planning
together, are difficult to achieve.

Amity Directorate of Distance and Online Education

Principles & Practices of Management 25
2.4 Principles Of Effective Planning
A system is a set of principles of effective planning as stated by Gary Dessler. These Notes
are as follows:

1. Keep aims crystallized: The aims and objectives must be clear, unambiguous solid,
reasonable and attainable. Badly defined objectives do not lend to accurate and
effective planning.
2. Develop accurate forecasts: Accurate events and trends in the future are the
most important inputs of the planning process. Accordingly, the managers making
the forecasts must be highly skilled and must use quantitative methods wherever
applicable in addition to intuitional judgments to improve the accuracy of the forecasts.
3. Involve subordinates in the planning process: This will ensure the acceptance
of the plans by those who are going to implement them. Studies have indicated that
people, who put the plans into operation, do so much better when they participate in
the formulation of the plans than when such plans are simply assigned to them.
4. The plan must be a sound one: In order for a plan to be effective, it must be based
on sound assumptions and correct information. Mitroff and Emshoff suggest a devil’s
advocate approach, in which someone deliberately criticizes the plan in order to
eliminate any inconsistencies in the plan and thus refine it further.
5. Don’t be over-optimistic: Objectivity is an essential ingredient of effective planning.
Over-optimism is based on feelings, emotions and intuition. Don’t see what you want
to see? but see what there is.
6. Decide in advance the criteria for abandoning a project: There is no need to
continue to stick to the plan if it is not working out as expected. However, the criteria for
abandoning a particular project should be established in the beginning. For example,
if a particular advertisement commercial does not increase sales by ten per cent in
six months, then such a commercial should be replaced.
7. Keep your plan flexible: Keep the progress of your plan under constant review so
that it can be revised and modified as the situation demands. Future trends should
also be assessed by continuously monitoring economic, social, political, technological
and competitive trends. Any changes in these variables may require changes in the
original plans.
8. Review long-range plans on a short-range basis: Long-range plans are risky due
to dynamic environment. Accordingly, long-range strategic plans should be split-up
into manageable periods and the basic assumptions underlying the strategic plan
as well as its progress should be measured and reviewed at such set intervals as
planned so that any reasons for under-performance or over-performance can be
identified and new decisions made relative to the plan.
9. Fit the plan to the environment: Assess the current as well as future environment.
If the environment is comparatively stable, a plan can be more rigid. However, if the
environment is volatile, the plan must remain highly flexible to accommodate necessary
changes.

Types of Plans
Organisation plans are usually divided into two types, namely standing plans and
single-use plans. Standing plans are those, which remain roughly the same for long
periods of time and are used in organizational situations that occur repeatedly. The
most common kinds of standing plans are policies, procedures and rules. Single-use
plans focus on relatively unique situations within the organization and may be required

Amity Directorate of Distance and Online Education

26 Principles & Practices of Management

to be used only once. These plans can be subdivided into programme and budgets.
These plans are explained below:
Notes
Standing Plans
Policies: A policy is a statement and a pre-determined guideline that provides
direction for decision making and action taking. Policies are usually general enough to
give the manager sufficient freedom to take judgments, while at the same time they are
specific enough to establish constraining boundaries. For example, regarding employment,
a company policy may be to employ personnel on merit alone without regard to race,
sex or age and within the bounds of this policy, a manager can make decisions. Policies
must be based upon a thorough analysis of objectives and should be consistent with the
company’s mission and philosophy. Policies, being formal statements, serve as ready
guides for answering numerous questions and making many day-to-day routine decisions,
especially about recurring problems, thus freeing management’s time for more important
and unique decisions. This helps improve the efficiency of operations. If the policies are
clearly understood and adhered to by all, then there will be fewer problems and fewer
complaints to start with. There may be separate policies for separate functions but they
must be all coordinated, thus serving the consistency of purpose.

Appropriate policy guideline enables manages to anticipate and take action for
a given set of situational variables. There are organizational policies formulated
for all types of situations and functions. There may be sales policies, production
policies, personnel policies and so on. For example, personnel policies would specify
decisions regarding selection, training, remuneration, labour relations, and promotion
of personnel and so on.

According to Newman, Summer and Warren, a policy may -

1. Be specific or broad in nature.

2. Deal with one or many aspects of a problems or a situation.

3. Place wider or narrow limits within which action is to be taken.

4. Specify the steps to be taken when a decision is to be made.

Policies are useful indicators of the conduct and the philosophy of the company and
about what the company stands for. These policies being formal statements can easily
be communicated to the organizational members as well as the outside public.

Procedures: While policies cover a broad area of action, procedures prescribe

the exact manner in which an activity is to be completed. They are a series of steps
established to accomplish a specific project. They generally indicate how a policy is to
be implemented and carried out. They are more precise guidelines permitting little or no
individual discretion. Procedures can be defined as a series of related tasks that make
up the chronological sequence and the established way of performing the work to be
accomplished. For example, some companies have a policy of reimbursing employees for
procedure, such as filling a form, attaching a copy of courses taken and grades received,
taking it to the personnel office for processing and then wait for the reimbursement check.

Rules: Whereas procedures specify a chronological sequence of steps to be

performed, rules are very specific and narrow guides to action. These are plans that
describe exactly how one particular situation is to be handled. For example, a company
may prescribe a number of safety rules, such as “No Smoking on company premises”.
No eating in the classroom is a rule in all schools and colleges.

Amity Directorate of Distance and Online Education

Principles & Practices of Management 27
A rule is meant to be strictly followed and is generally enforced by invoking penalties.
For example, if it is a rule to report on duty at 9 am then any person who consistently
breaks this rule can be fired. A recent New York State law requires that all car drivers not
Notes
wearing safety belts while driving a car are subject to a fine.

Single-Use Plans
Programmes: A programme is a single-use plan designed to carry out a special
project, solving a problem or achieving a group of related goals. This project or problem
is not intended to be in existence over the entire life of the organization like the standing
plans.

The programme exists to achieve some purpose identified by the organization and
this achievement is expected to benefit the organization. For example, an organization
may have instituted a management development programme to build special managerial
skills such as handling international competition or meeting the management challenges
of the next century.

Similarly, a college may have a programme to build a new laboratory or add new class
rooms. A business may have a programme to automate its systems. All these programmes
are one-time programme, no matter how long it takes to complete a given programme or
a project. Once the programmes goals are achieved, that programme is discontinued.

Budgets: A budget is another single-use programme, which is a financial plan that

covers a specified period of time. This plan identifies as to how funds will be raised and
how these funds will be utilized for procuring resources such as labour, raw materials,
information systems and other business functions such as marketing, research and
development and so on. Every organization prepares a budget for its various activities.
These budgets are usually for a one-year period at a time. When a specific budget period
ends, the value of that budget as a planning device is finished, even though it may form
the basis for the budget for the following period. In that respect, it is a single-use plan.

2.5 Forecasting
Forecasting plays a pivotal role in the operations of modern management. It is
an important and necessary aid to planning and planning is the backbone of effective
operations. Many organizations have failed because of lack of forecasting or faulty
forecasting on which the planning was based. For example, Curtiss-Wright, one of the
major aero plane manufacturers, the equal of Douglas and Boeing combined in 1945 -
decided to put its money into an improved piston engine instead of jets. The management
of Curtiss-Wright did not accurately forecast the market for jets and hence failed. The
importance of forecasting is emphasized by Lonis A. Alphen: “A systematic attempt to
probe the future by inference from known facts helps integrate all management planning
so that unified overall plans can be developed into which divisional and departmental plans
can be meshed. It enables a company to commit its resources with greatest assurance
to profit over the long term. By helping to identify future demand patterns, it facilitates
development of new products”.

Forecasting implies the act of making a detailed analysis of the future and planning
is impossible without either predicting the future as accurately as possible or making
intelligent assumptions about it. Forecasting may be a form of intentional and considered
judgment based on feelings, opinions and experiences, and these judgments, at best
will be educated guesses. It could also be based upon a rational study and analysis of
pertinent data and this process is known as “scientific forecasting”. It would depend upon
an analysis of past events and current conditions with a view to drawing inferences and

Amity Directorate of Distance and Online Education

28 Principles & Practices of Management

conclusions about future events. Some of the areas in which accurate forecast about
future events and trends are necessary for organizational success and growth are:
Notes
Economic development: The economic conditions of the country as well as global
economy would have significant effect on the operations of an organization. The necessary
elements of such forecasts include predictions relating to Gross National Products and
Gross Domestic Products, currency strength, industrial expansion, job market, inflation
rate, interests rate, balance of payments and so on. Healthy economic trends assist in
the growth of the company. On the other hand, for example, the economic depression
of 1929-1930 put many companies out of business. The knowledge about economic
trends would assist the management in making plans for their organization as an effective
response to such trends.

Technological forecasts: These forecasts predict the new technological

developments that may change the operations of an organization. For example, the advent
of the transistor put the vacuum tube totally out of business. The age of the electronic
calculators totally wiped out the market for slide rules. An aggressive organization keeps
up to date with new technological development and readily adopts new methods to
improve performance.

Competition forecasts: It is equally necessary to predict the strategies your

competitors would be employing to acquire gains in the market share, perhaps at the
cost of your market share. The competitor may be planning to employ a different market
strategy for the product or to bring out a substitute for the product, which could be cheaper
and easily acceptable by consumers.

Social forecasts: These forecasts involve predicting changes in the consumer tastes,
demands and attitudes. Consumers have already established a trend for convenience,
comfort and for products and that are easy to use and manage. Matters of taste and
preference may change over a period of time. For example, in the 1970s, the trend was
to buy small economic cars. In the 1990s, the trend returned to luxury and comfort. While
these trends partly do depend upon the general economic trends they also depend on the
consumer tastes. For example, trends in women’s fashions and clothing change almost
every year. The Nehru jacket, highly popular is the 1960s, is unheard of today. Accordingly,
in the area of consumer goods, social trends are important aspects of forecasting.

Forecasting as a strategy is widely used today, and some of these forecasts, specially
the short-term ones, are fairly reliable. Some forecasts, using scientific methods or
instrumentations can be fairly accurately made. For example, short-range weather
forecasting, forecasting the paths of meteorites and comets or solar and lunar eclipses are
quite accurate. However, accuracy becomes less dependable as we extend forecasting
farther into the future.

Forecasting human behaviour or situational trends is much more difficult to assess

and may result in faulty estimates. How people will respond to certain actions taken by
the organization is difficult to predict. Perhaps, one of the classical examples of failure in
correctly forecasting people’s attitudes as well as economic trends was the total failure of
Ford Motor Company’s “Edsel” car, which was built in the early 1950s, after a thorough
investigation of all the factors that determine future events. The Bulova Watch Company
suffered huge losses when it failed to accurately forecast the full impact of digital watches.
On the other hand, IBM’s correct forecast of the impact of its third generation computer
system 360 in the 1960s was a major benchmark in the continuing success story of
IBM. The uncertainty of future events overshadows the fact that even the most skilled
forecasters using the most sophisticated tools and example would be the faulty predictions
about the population of America for the 1970s and 1980s, made in the 1950s. The actual

Amity Directorate of Distance and Online Education

Principles & Practices of Management 29
population was much less than anticipated. Some of the assumptions on which these
predictions were based did not include variables that became apparent later on in time.
These variables were legal abortions, social attitudes towards birth control, late marriages
Notes
and a decline in social pressures to have children.

Techniques of Forecasting
The future can never be known with certainty, but there are some techniques that
have proved to be effective in reducing the degree of uncertainty. There are basically two
broad categories of forecasting techniques. These are:

Qualitative Techniques: These techniques are primarily based upon judgment and
intuition about the environment and are used especially when sufficient quantitative
information and data is not available so that complex quantitative techniques cannot be
used. Under certain situations, qualitative judgments about the future are more reliable
than quantitative conclusions because the quantitative methods are based on the analysis
of the past data and its trends, which may or may not remain the same. Secondly,
quantitative techniques follow a certain pattern and do not provide for accommodating
any unexpected occurrences.

Approach to qualitative forecasting

Jury of executive opinion: This is the method by which the relevant opinions of
experts are taken, combined and averaged. For example, the managers of various
divisions could be asked about the profitability of introducing a new product and a judgment
made on the basis of their opinions. These opinions could be taken on an individual
basis or there could be brainstorming group sessions in which all members participate in
generating new ideas that can later be evaluate for their feasibility and profitability. This
method is fast, less expensive and does not depend upon any elaborate statistical data
or methodology and brings in specialized view points. Its main disadvantage is that it is
based upon subjective opinions that may be overly optimistic if the business conditions
are good and may be overly pessimistic when economic conditions are not favourable.

Opinions of sales persons: This approach involves the opinions of the sales force
and these opinions are primarily taken into consideration for forecasting future sales.
The sales people, being closer to the consumers, can estimate future sales in their own
territories more accurately. Based on these and the opinions of the sales manages, a
reasonable trend of the future sales can be calculated. These forecasts are good for
short-range planning, since sales people are not sufficiently sophisticated to predict
long-term trends. This method, also known as the “grass roots” approach lends itself to
easy breakdowns of product, territory, and customer and so on, which makes forecasting
more elaborate and comprehensive.

Consumer expectations: This method involves a survey of the customers as to

their future needs. This method is especially useful where the industry serves a limited
market. Based on the future needs of the customers, a general overall forecast for the
demand can be made. The major problem with this method is that the future “needs” do
not necessarily mean future “commitments” to buy, since needs may change depending
upon the circumstances. However, the method is fairly reliable where the target market is
small such as buyers of industrial products and where the customers are knowledgeable
and cooperative.

The Delphi method: The Delphi method originally developed by Rand Corporation
in 1969 to forecast military events has become a useful tool for other areas also. It is
basically a more formal version of “jury of executive opinion” method. A panel of experts

Amity Directorate of Distance and Online Education

30 Principles & Practices of Management

is given a situation and asked to make initial predictions about it. On the basis of a
prescribed questionnaire, these experts develop written opinions. These responses are
Notes analyzed and summarized by a central coordinator and submitted back to the panel for
further consideration, evaluation and refinement. All these responses are anonymous so
that no member influenced by other’s opinions. This process is repeated until a consensus
is obtained. This method is very useful where either the past patterns are not available
or where the past data is not indicative of future events and the issues are general in
nature such as future energy needs, possible after-effects of a nuclear war and so on.

Quantitative Techniques: These techniques involve mathematical and statistical

analyses of data banks, which is primarily the information related to past activities.
These techniques are fairly sophisticated and required experts in the field to use them.
“Time Series Analysis” is a popular statistical forecasting technique. It extrapolates the
past trends into future. “Economic Models” for forecasting are more complex in nature
and involve inter-relationships of many variables tied together in a mathematical model.
Complex computer models simulate future events based on probabilities and multiple
assumptions. “Statistical Surveys” use statistical analysis of opinion polls and attitude
surveys to predict such variables as future consumer tastes, employee preferences, and
political choices and so on. The major disadvantage of using quantitative techniques is that
the conclusions derived from quantitative models are only as good as the assumptions
and judgments made about the variables that are put into the model. Faulty assumptions
will yield inaccurate results. No matter what model or method is used, forecasting basically
rests on human judgment. Accordingly, forecasts should serve as guidelines and not
as indicators of certainty. Henry Albers has summarized his assessment of forecasting:

A successful forecast is something of a miracle and often occurs for the wrong reasons.
However, it should not lead to the assumption that nothing has been accomplished.
There are some good “rule of thumb” forecasts. A part of the problem is that too much is
expected from forecasting. People want more precise answers than are possible in an
environment characterized by uncertainty.”

Forecasting Human Resource

Human resource planning involves objective and systematic assessment of the
present staffing needs of an organization, identifying the available personnel to satisfy
the current needs, forecasting the future demand and supply of employees, formulating
staffing strategies with a view to both short-range as well as long-range strategic plans and
continuously monitoring, evaluating and updating these needs and resources of supply.

In today’s complex organizational structure, operating in highly involved and complex

economic, political, socio-cultural and technical environment, the most suitable employees
are becoming more and more crucial and indispensable assets for effective performance.
Human resource planning is important in providing the following direct benefits to the
organizations:

1 It improves the utilization of human resources by helping the management forecast

the recruitment needs in terms of both numbers as well as the types of skills required,
and develops ways to avoid or correct problems before they become serious and
disrupt operations.
2 It helps focus the recruitment efforts on the most likely sources of supply. This will
cut down the total costs of hiring and training personnel and reduce costs associated
with hiring mistakes.
3 It makes provisions for replacement or back-up staff from either inside or outside the
organization whenever the need arises either on a temporary or permanent basis.

Amity Directorate of Distance and Online Education

Principles & Practices of Management 31
These available sources of supply are important to identify specially in the case of
any emergencies that might occur.
Notes
4 It helps achieve an integration of personnel plans with other operating as well as
strategic plans by making available the personnel management information base to
other organizational activities.

Forecasting Demand and Supply

The factors to be considered for forecasting demand and supply are as follows:

Forecasting Demand
1. Anticipated growth of the organization: This growth rate can be calculated from
the past trends on the assumption that all variables affecting this growth will
remain constant.

2. Budget constraints and allocations: The budget allocation specifically for the
purpose of new employees will determine the number of new workers that can
be hired, thus putting a ceiling on the maximum number.

3. Anticipated turnover in personnel due to retirement, death, transfers,

termination of service, promotions, etc.: Some of these can be anticipated
or calculated to some extent accurately in advance by taking information about
individuals, specially the loss due to retirement, and promotion can be calculated
quite accurately by preparing a retirement and promotion or transfer profile. This
makes the projection of future demand easier and more accurate.

4. Introduction of new technology: With continuous technological developments,

innovation and automation, the personnel needs are constantly changing. At
many places, computers are either replacing workers or reducing their numbers.
The type of new technology introduced would determine the number as well as
qualifications of the people that may be hired and transferred.

5. Minority hiring goals: The goals established by the organsation about hiring
minorities or the handicapped, as a part of the affirmative action policies, may
affect the demand for the total number of employees, specially when it is difficult
to match the skilled, semi-skilled or unskilled minority workers to the specific job
requirements.

Forecasting Supply
1. Promotions of employees from within the organization: Promotions are a good
and a reliable source of supply of experienced and skilled personnel, who do not
need to be extensively trained and who are also familiar with the organizational
goals, policies, and philosophy

2. Availability of required talent in the external labour market: This may be assessed
by unemployment figures, a survey of private and public employment agencies
and other sources.

3. Competition for talent within the industry: If the competition is very tough then
it will be more difficult to tap the supply and the cost of additional workers will
become very high. Conversely, if the need for a particular talent is not very high
in the competitive industry, then the supply will remain flexible.

4. Population movement trends: The demographical changes will also affect the
sources of supply. For example, if there is a tendency for people to move from

Amity Directorate of Distance and Online Education

32 Principles & Practices of Management

rural areas to urban areas, then the supply in the rural areas will dry up. Similarly,
most new immigrants from outside have a tendency to settle in cities, thus increase
Notes the supply in the urban areas.

5. Enrolment trends in vocational schools and colleges and universities: If there

is a marked increase in the number of students in training programmes as well
as colleges, this will improve the supply of skilled personnel and personnel with
specialized educational backgrounds. On the other hand, due to high costs of
education, there may be a decline in college enrolment, signifying a trend in
scarcity of educated people.

Check your progress

Tick mark the most appropriate answer

1. Corporate planning is nothing but -

a) Planning the future of the organization

b) Planning for expansion of the organization

c) Planning for Human Resources Utilization

d) Budgeting for an extended period.

2. A plan can not be said to exist unless:

a) It has been reduced to writing

b) It has been signed by the chairman

c) It has been conveyed to all managers

d) Commitment of resources, direction, or reputation has been made.

3. Planning is considered vital management function because:-

a) Planning is essential in modern business

b) Planning puts focus on objectives

c) Planning anticipates problems and uncertainties

d) All of the above.

4. Planning is termed as-

a) A process of navigational change

b) An intellectual process

c) A process to s… through contingencies

d) All of the above.

5. Policy & procedure differ in -

a) Level of which these are implemented

b) Objectives and implementations

Amity Directorate of Distance and Online Education

Principles & Practices of Management 33
c) Policies are broad guidelines, procedure define its implementation

d) All of the above. Notes

2.6 Summary
Planning is a decision-making activity requiring the process of ascertaining objectives
and deciding on activities to attain these objectives. In planning, managers assess the
future, determine the goals of the organization and develop the overall strategies to
achieve these goals. The importance of formal planning has already been discussed. A
vigorous and detailed planning programme helps managers to be future oriented. It gives
the managers some purpose and direction.

Planning is a critical managerial activity. It is the process of determining how the

organization can get where it wants to go. It is primary function of management because
all other functions depend upon how the organization plans to achieve its objectives.

Forecasting implies the act of making a detailed analysis of the future and planning
is impossible without either predicting the future as accurately as possible or making
intelligent assumptions about it. There are basically two broad categories of forecasting
techniques qualitative and quantitative techniques.

2.7 Questions and Exercises:

1. Discuss various steps in Planning Process.
2. What is the distinction between planning and control?
3. Why is planning so important for the success of an organization? Explain.
4. What are the requirements of effective Plan?

2.8 Further Readings:

1. Tripathi P. C., and Reddy P.N., Principles of Management, Tata McGraw Hill, 2008
2. KoontzHolt, David, Management: Principles and Practices,Prentice Hall,1995

Amity Directorate of Distance and Online Education