JICA - Transport Master Plan PDF

ミャンマー国全国運輸交通プログラム形成準備調査
2014年7月24日
Presented by Junji Shibata, P.E. Japan, Oriental Consultants Co., Ltd.
Contents
Myanmar National Transport Development Master Plan

1. MYT‐Plan Objectives
2. Transport Vision, Policy, Strategy and Actions
3. Corridor‐based Transport Infrastructure Development
4. Financing
5. Feasibility Studies
6. Appendix
2
1. MYT-Plan Objectives

1. MYT-Plan Objectives

 MYT-Plan is designed to provide guidance for a long-term investment
framework that will help the Government achieve its economic growth targets
by 2030.
 MYT-Plan to provide guidelines that are adaptable to other industrial sectors
and to private investment, to assist with investment planning and decision
making for a variety of transport sector projects.
 MYT-Plan to inform the transport sector’s development vision, by presenting a
set of comprehensive policies and development strategies relevant to all modes
of transport, and corresponding actions (projects) for specific modes by
development corridor.
 MYT-Plan is designed to be read in conjunction with Myanmar’s National

Comprehensive Development Plan (NCDP).
 MYT-Plan will be updated in conjunction with the achievement of national
development objectives, guided by the NCDP.
4
5

The National Transport Vision
‘To develop an efficient, modern, safe, and environmentally-

friendly transportation system in a coordinated and
sustainable manner that embraces all transport modes for
the benefit of the country and people of Myanmar’.
6

Road Sub-sector Vision
Rail sub-sector
Vision
National Transport Vision
Maritime and Inland Water

Transport Sub-sector Vision
Civil Aviation Sub-sector

Vision
7

Implementation of the Policies – Strategic objective, Strategies, and Actions
Vision Statement
Policy Statement
Strategic Objective
Strategy
Action (short-term)
8
3. Corridor-based Transport Infrastructure Development
9

i. Existing Context
10
1a

ii. Spatial Framework Map
• Improvements to strategic
transport routes will improve
access for estimated 65.7 million
population by 2030
• This represents 61.7% of forecast
2030 total population of
73.9million
11
1a

iii. Consistency with Multi‐Centric Balanced Development Strategy
DHSHD Concept
 National Growth Centers: Nay Pyi Taw, Yangon,
Mandalay/Sagaing
 Regional Growth Centers: Myitkyina, Sittwe/Kyaukphyu,
Pathein, Bago(Hanthawaddy), Mawlamyine, Dawei
 Agro‐industrial Centers: Lashio, Shwebo, Kale, Monywa,
Meiktila, Taunggyi, Taungoo , Magway, Pyay, Hinthada,
Thaton, Hpa‐an
 Special Function Growth Centers: Muse, Tamu, Nyaung‐U,
Kengtung, Tachileik, Myawaddy, Myeik
12

This National Spatial Framework should be:
 Complementary with the National
Transport Master Plan for Myanmar
 Consistent with the MOC Department of
Human Settlements and Housing
Development Concept of Concentrated
and Decentralized Development Strategy
 Balanced in terms of enabling growth in
urban and rural regions and states
 Focused on key growth centers to
optimize investment funds and
community benefits
 Multi‐centric to improve access to a range
of employment opportunities and social
and community facilities
13

10 Major Corridors C
A Central North‐South Corridor
B East ‐ West Corridor D
C Northern Corridor A
D Mandalay ‐ Tamu Corridor
E Second East ‐ West Corridor K E
G East ‐ West Bridging Corridor
L
H Delta Area Network
B
J Southern Area Development
G
Corridor
K Western North‐South Corridor
L Eastern North ‐ South Corridor H
Priority corridors for urgent
J
investment
14
3.1 Corridor Analysis – population and GDP

% against % against
2012 2012 GDP
National National
Development Corridor Section Code Population (Kyat
Population by GDP by
(,000) billion)
corridor corridor
Yangon-Nay Pyi Taw A1 11,714 13,170
Central North-South Corridor Nay Pyi Taw- Mandalay A2 6,323 41% 4,457 50%
Mandalay - Myitkyna A3 7,035 5,648
Yangon - Hpa-An - Myawaddy B1 14,052 14,543
GMS East - West Corridor
Mawlamyine - Dawei B2 2,753
28% 2,039
35%
GMS Northern Corridor Mandalay - Muse C1 6,042 10% 4,503 10%
Mandalay - Tamu Corridor Mandalay - Tamu D1 8,722 14% 6,992 15%
New East - West Corridor Tachilek - Meiktila - Kyaukpyu E1 10,636 17% 6,938 15%
Hpasawing - Pyay G1 2,664 1,727
East - West Bridging Corridor 12% 11%
Loikaw - Magway G2 4,767 3,214
Yangon - Pathein H1 8,992 10,076
Delta Area Network
Pathein - Hinthada H2 3,766
21% 2,651
27%
Thanbyuzayat - Hpayarthonesu J1 2,537 1,482
Southern Area Development
Dawai - Thai Border J2 811 8% 781 8%
Corridor
Dawei - Kawthaung J3 1,756 1,679
Yangon - Pyay - Magway K1 12,810 14,388
Western North-South Corridor
Magway - Mandalay K2 7,096
33% 5,468
42%
Bilin - Loikaw L1 3,896 2,550
Eastern North - South Corridor 12% 9%
Loikaw - Nawnghko L2 3,247 1,900
15
3.1 Corridor Analysis – Freight transport demand in 2013
2013

Traffic Composit
Modal Share
Development Corridor Section Code demand ion
(ton-km)
Total 2013 Road Rail River
Yangon-Nay Pyi Taw A1 23.3 27% 93% 7% 0%
Central North-South Corridor Nay Pyi Taw- Mandalay A2 15.4 18% 92% 8% 0%
Mandalay - Myitkyna A3 2.6 3% 67% 13% 20%
Yangon - Hpa-An - Myawaddy B1 10.0 12% 95% 5% 0%
Mawlamyine - Dawei B2 0.4 0% 92% 8% 0%
GMS Northern Corridor Mandalay - Muse C1 11.1 13% 98% 2% 0%
Mandalay - Tamu Corridor Mandalay - Tamu D1 1.4 2% 75% 7% 18%
New East - West Corridor Tachilek - Meiktila - Kyaukpyu E1 2.4 3% 97% 3% 0%
Hpasawing - Pyay G1 0.1 0% 100% 0% 0%
East - West Bridging Corridor
Loikaw - Magway G2 1.0 1% 100% 0% 0%
Yangon - Pathein H1 1.4 2% 52% 0% 48%
Delta Area Network
Pathein - Hinthada H2 0.2 0% 97% 3% 0%
Thanbyuzayat - Hpayarthonesu J1 0.0 0% - - -
Dawai - Thai Border J2 0.0 0% 100% 0% 0%
Corridor
Dawei - Kawthaung J3 0.1 0% 100% 0% 0%
Yangon - Pyay - Magway K1 8.8 10% 61% 6% 33%
Western North-South Corridor
Magway - Mandalay K2 2.1 2% 12% 8% 80%
Bilin - Loikaw L1 0.2 0% 100% 0% 0%
Eastern North - South Corridor
Loikaw - Nawnghko L2 0.1 0% 97% 3% 0%
16
3.1 Corridor Analysis – Passenger transport demand in 2013

2013 Traffic demand (person-km) Composition
Corridor Name Section Code
Total Air Car IWT Rail Bus 2013
Yangon-Nay Pyi Taw A1 23.4 0% 13% 0% 3% 83% 30%
Central North-South
Nay Pyi Taw- Mandalay A2 16.0 0% 14% 0% 6% 79% 20%
Corridor
Mandalay - Myitkyna A3 4.1 13% 15% 12% 51% 9% 5%
Yangon - Hpa-An - Myawaddy B1 9.1 0% 19% 0% 7% 74% 12%
Mawlamyine - Dawei B2 0.5 0% 19% 0% 5% 76% 1%
GMS Northern Corridor Mandalay - Muse C1 3.7 0% 49% 0% 8% 43% 5%
Mandalay - Tamu Corridor Mandalay - Tamu D1 3.0 1% 15% 0% 5% 79% 4%
New East - West Corridor Tachilek - Meiktila - Kyaukpyu E1 4.3 5% 25% 0% 10% 59% 6%
East - West Bridging Hpasawing - Pyay G1 0.0 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0%
Corridor Loikaw - Magway G2 2.3 0% 15% 0% 30% 55% 3%
Yangon - Pathein H1 3.6 1% 24% 18% 0% 57% 5%
Delta Area Network
Pathein - Hinthada H2 0.6 0% 23% 0% 18% 59% 1%
Thanbyuzayat - Hpayarthonesu J1 0.0 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Southern Area
Dawai - Thai Border J2 0.0 0% 40% 0% 0% 60% 0%
Development Corridor
Dawei - Kawthaung J3 0.9 87% 8% 0% 0% 5% 1%
Western North-South Yangon - Pyay - Magway K1 4.3 0% 29% 0% 21% 50% 5%
Corridor Magway - Mandalay K2 1.5 1% 12% 0% 39% 49% 2%
Eastern North - South Bilin - Loikaw L1 0.1 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0%
Corridor Loikaw - Nawnghko L2 0.2 0% 13% 0% 82% 4% 0%
17
3.1 Corridor Analysis – Capacity vs. Demand, 2030

Freight Passenger
Corridor Section Code
V/C Ratio V/C Ratio
Yangon-Nay Pyi Taw A1 1.09 1.30
Central North-South Corridor Nay Pyi Taw- Mandalay A2 1.09 1.49
Mandalay - Myitkyna A3 0.42 0.81
Yangon - Hpa-An - Myawaddy B1 1.81 1.98
Mawlamyine - Dawei B2 0.16 0.09
GMS Northern Corridor Mandalay - Muse C1 2.14 0.87
Mandalay - Tamu Corridor Mandalay - Tamu D1 0.19 0.48
New East - West Corridor Tachilek - Meiktila - Kyaukpyu E1 0.18 0.32
East - West Bridging Hpasawing - Pyay G1 0.03 0.01
Corridor Loikaw - Magway G2 0.12 0.51
Yangon - Pathein H1 0.67 1.45
Delta Area Network
Pathein - Hinthada H2 0.08 0.31
Thanbyuzayat - Hpayarthonesu J1 0.00 0.00
Dawai - Thai Border J2 0.00 0.00
Corridor
Dawei - Kawthaung J3 0.01 0.09
Western North-South Yangon - Pyay - Magway K1 1.67 1.05
Corridor Magway - Mandalay K2 0.94 0.60
Eastern North - South Bilin - Loikaw L1 0.03 0.01
Corridor Loikaw - Nawnghko L2 0.02 0.02
18
3.2 Corridor Analysis – A: Central North-South Corridor

Traffic Volume between YNG ‐ MDL
・ UH1 + Expressway
5,000 ~ 5,500 vehicles /day (=10,000 pcu)
・ UH1
Large Truck: 1,500 Vehicles/day (51% of total)
・ Expressway
Car: 2,000 Vehicles / day
Bus: 370 Buses / day
Road NH1 NH2 Expressway
MC 56 39 -
Small Vehicles 794 126 2,037
Small Bus 265 134 60
Bus 135 74 367
Small Truck 146 45 -
Large Truck 1,464 274 -
Total 2,860 692 2,464
*Daily Average Traffic Volume at Toll Gates
*NH1: YNG‐NPT‐MDL Rd. NH2: YNG – PYAY‐MDL
*Source: MOC
19
3.2 Corridor Analysis – Expressway

Road Traffic Demand Forecast along Yangon – Mandalay Corridor
70000
60000
Capacity of NH1 + Expressway
50000
40000
Traffic Volume
PCU
Truck
30000
20000
Capacity of NH1
10000
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year Capacity increase should be considered
Truck demand exceeds the design capacity of NH1
 open expressway for trucks
20
4. Financing
21

4. Financing

Necessary Investment in the Transport Sector under Scenario 2
,including national, urban, and rural transport systems,
mostly by the public sector, but including investment by the private sector.
60,000 Unit: billion Kyat
at 2013 constant
50,000 prices
40,000
Gov Expenditure
30,000 1389 billion Kyat 2164 billion Kyat 5251 billion Kyat National Total FCF
In 2015 in2020 In 2030 Transport
20,000
10,000
1
25
1
37
5,
4
3,
16
5
2,
15
1,
0
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25
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27
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29
30
20
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20
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20
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20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
22
4. Financing

Necessary Investment by Sub-sector
Unit: billion Kyat at 2013 constant prices

Investment 2014 - 2030 + Maritime/IWT Air
2014 - 2030
Sector Y2016 Y2021 Over over 2030
- Y2015 (Bil. MMK)
- Y2020 - Y2030 Y2030 (Bil. MMK)
Air 319 1,155 922 0 2,396 2,396
Road 329 3,068 8,264 2 11,660 11,662
Rail 327 1,994 4,204 413 6,525 6,938
Seaport 501 1,872 2,354 1,796 4,727 6,523
Inland water 39 562 779 372 1,380 1,752
Total 1,515 8,651 16,523 2,582 26,688 29,271
Investment 2014 - 2030 +

2014 - 2030
Sector Y2016 Y2021 Over over 2030
- Y2015 (Bil. MMK)
- Y2020 - Y2030 Y2030 (Bil. MMK)
Air 21% 13% 6% 0% 9% 8%
Road 22% 35% 50% 0% 44% 40%
Rail 22% 23% 25% 16% 24% 24% Road
Seaport 33% 22% 14% 70% 18% 22%
Rail
Inland water 2% 7% 5% 14% 5% 6%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
23
4. Financing

2014 – 2020 – Focused Investment to the Trunk Systems
• 10,166 billion Kyat (at 2013 constant prices) for national transport systems.
• This is about 87% of the total capital formation in the transport sector (11,700
billion Kyat).
• The remaining 13% (1,534 billion Kyat) is allocated to urban and rural transport
systems.
2020 – 2030 – Well balanced funding

• 16,523 billion Kyat (at 2013 constant prices) for trunk transport systems
• This is about 45% of the total capital formation in the transport sector (36,390
billion Kyat)
• The remaining 55% is allocated to urban and rural transport systems
24
5. Feasibility Studies
25

The Survey Program For
The National Transport Development Plan in The Republic of The Union of Myanmar
Rehabilitation and Modernization of Yangon – Mandalay Railway
Presented by Junji Shibata, P.E. Japan, Oriental Consultants Co., Ltd.
Rehabilitation and Modernization of Yangon – Mandalay Railway

Yangon – Mandalay Railway
 About 620 km, 98 stations
 Single track: 1884～1889
 Double tracking：1899～1926
 Non‐electrified
Phased Improvement Plan
 Phase 1: Yangon – Taung Oo,
267km, 44 stations
 Phase 2: Tanung Oo – Yamethin,
174km, 27 stations
 Phase 3: Yamethin – Mandalay,
179km, 27 stations
28
Inland Water Transport Facilities Improvement and Development in Mandalay
Mandalay Port Plan
1a

Access Road
304m
Cargo Yard
3 ha
Jetty 90m x 2 = 180m

Quay Depth = - 2.0m
Access Bridge
North 160m
South 240m
30
Pre‐Feasibility Study: The East‐West Economic Corridor Road Improvement Project
Potential projects along the East‐ West Corridor

Road
Length Width Pavement Project type
Eindu - Kawkareik 70km 11m (2 lane + shoulder) Asphalt Widening & Improvement
Bridge
Length Superstructure type Weight limit Completion year Project type
Don Tha Mi Br. 183m PC+RC 50 ton 1982 -
Naung Lon Br. 115m RC 30 ton 1970s -
Gyaing (Kawkareik) Br. 400m Suspension 30 ton 1999 -
Gyaing (ZaThaPyin) Br. 884m Suspension 30 ton 1999 -
Atran Br. 433m Cable Stayed 30 ton 1998 -
Don Tha Mi Br. Naung Lon Br. Gyaing (Kawkareik) Br. Gyaing (ZaThaPyin) Br. Atran Br.
32
Appendix: Frameworks for National Transport Planning
33
Structure of MYT-Plan

National Development
Policy and Framework
- NCDP
POLICY COMPONENT Cross-sector Studies INFRASTRUCTURE COMPONENT

- ASEAN Integration
National Spatial Development
Transport Sector Vision and - Demographic Framework
Framework (NSDF)
Goals - Economic Growth Scenario
- Financial Framework - Centers and Corridors
- Environmental Framework
- Demand Forecast (modal split)
Key Strategic Issues and Integrated Transport Network

Policies Plan
Sub-sector Studies
- Air
- Road
- Rail
Sub-sector Goals - Inland Water
Sub-sector Network Plan
and Strategies - Port / Maritime
- (Pipeline)
Proposed Projects / Action

by Corridor
34
2. Frameworks for National Transport Planning

Considered frameworks
 Upstream National Development Policies and Plans
 ASEAN Corporation and Brunei Action Plan
 Demographic Framework
 Economic Growth Scenario
 Financial Framework
 Environmental Framework
 National Spatial Development Framework
 Demand Forecast
Missing issues that need further study toward complete transport planning
 Industrial development
 Rural transportation
 Urban transportation
Note: the existing version of MYT-Plan is limited to the national level trunk
transport systems.
35
1. Upstream National Development Policies and Plans

 5 year plan (2011‐15): 7.7% annual growth (real term) target
(Address by H.E. President U Thein Sein in June 2012)
 Framework for Economic and Social Reforms (FESR): policy
priorities for 2012‐2015 towards the long‐term goals of the
national comprehensive development plan (NCDP) –
“macroeconomic stability,” “inclusive development,” “quick win”
and “sustainability”
 National Comprehensive Development Plan (NCDP): Long term
plan up to 2030; expected to be completed in July 2014
 Myanmar Comprehensive Development Vision (MCDV): Long term
development vision up to 2035; Collaboration with ERIA
 Spatial Structure Development Concept by DHSHD
36
3 Demographic Framework

Population High Middle Low
(000 persons)
85,000
80,000
75,000
70,000
65,000
60,000
55,000 Year
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Unit: million persons
Year 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Likely

growth
High 59.8 63.8 67.8 71.6 75.0 78.0 80.7 scenario
Moderate 59.8 63.6 66.9 69.8 71.9 73.3 73.8
Low 59.8 63.4 66.5 68.9 70.3 70.9 70.4
Source: MYT‐Plan JICA Study Team
37
3. Demographic Framework

Population Forecast 2030
Unit: 1,000 persons
Regions/States 2012 2020 2030
Kachin State 1,616 1,820 1,935
Kayah State 365 424 450
Kayin State 1,855 2,151 2,401
Chin State 571 630 656
Sagaing Region 6,654 7,029 7,179
Tanintharyi Region 1,755 2,051 2,301
Bago Region 6,125 6,691 7,261
Magway Region 5,730 6,013 6,113
Mandalay Region 7,423 7,949 8,370
Mon State 3,193 3,489 3,846
Rakhine State 3,370 3,666 4,016
Yangon Region 7,170 8,739 10,445
Shan State 5,779 6,128 6,378
Ayeyarwaddy Region 8,205 8,685 8,864
Naypyitaw Council Territory 1,164 1,434 1,684
Total 60,976 66,900 71,900
38
4. Economic Growth Scenario

Growth of economy (real GDP)
Index Economic Growth Scenarios:
(2010=100 7.7% GDP growth target from 2011
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
700 ) to 2015 (Myanmar Government)
7 to 8 % GDP growth until 2030
600 6.0 times (“Myanmar in Transition”, ADB)
500 5.4 times Scenario 1

7.7% GDP growth during 2015‐35;
400 4.3 times Average growth rate of 7.5% from
2011 to 2035
300
Scenario 2 (recommended)
200 7.2% GDP growth during 2013‐35;
Average growth rate of 7.0% from
100 2011 to 2035
0 Scenario 3
6.0% GDP growth during 2014‐35;
Debt sustainability analysis by IMF;
trend growth
Source: MYT‐Plan JICA Study Team
39
4. Economic Growth Scenario

GDP Growth of Asian Countries in 25 years
GDP Japan Korea, Rep. Thailand Malaysia
(Starting year =
100) Indonesia Lao PDR Vietnam
Korea, Thailand
700
Malaysia, Indonesia
600 6 times
500 5 times
4.5 times
400
Japan Lao PDR
300
Viet Nam
200
100
0
Year
Source: World Development Indicators 2012
40
5. Financial Framework - backcasting approach using ICOR

Necessary Investment Amount for Myanmar
billion Kyat Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3

70,000
Accumulated amount of investment
60.2 Tri Kyat
60,000 from 2014 to 2030:
• 536 trillion kyat (Scenario 1) 52.5 Tri Kyat
50,000 • 481 trillion kyat (Scenario 2)
40,000 • 359 trillion kyat (Scenario 3)
36.6 Tri Kyat
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Source: MYT-Plan JICA Study Team

41
Investment expenditures in the transport sector in 2003

Unit: %
Proportion to
Proportion to total Fixed
Three groups in terms of
Country proportion to total FCF
GDP Capital
Formation (FCF)
Bangladesh 1.1 4.6 • 5% : Bangladesh,
Cambodia, Indonesia,
Cambodia 1.0 4.5 Mongolia, Myanmar
China 4.0 9.7
• 10%: China, India
India 2.3 8.8
Indonesia 1.3 5.1 • 15%: Thailand, Vietnam
Mongolia 2.1 7.1
Thailand 3.9 15.6
Vietnam 6.0 16.9
(Enhancing Regional Cooperation In Infrastructure Development including that

Related to Disaster Management, by UNESCAP)
42

Investment expenditures in the transport sector in Myanmar
Unit: %
Proportion to Total Proportion to Total
Fiscal Year Fixed Capital Government Capital
Formation Expenditure
2004‐05 12.8 21.0
2005‐06 14.4 29.7
2006‐07 7.5 14.0
2007‐08 6.9 13.5
2008‐09 4.8 12.0
2009‐10 5.3 13.4
2010‐11 3.5 9.9
Note 1: Higher level investment in 2004/05 and 2005/06 is due to Yangon – Mandalay
Expressway and Nay Pyi Taw development.
Note 2: Transport capital expenditure: Union government budget + State administrative
organization budget + state economic enterprises, calculated by MYT-Plan JICA
Study Team from Myanmar Data CD-ROM 2010 and 2011
43

Investment expenditure in the Transport Sector
 Investment scenarios in the transport sector
Scenario 2 Fixed Capital Formation x (three scenarios (levels) : 5%,

10% and 15%)
 Accumulated investment amount from 2014 to 2030 (16 years):
• 24 trillion kyat (5%)
44

Investment expenditure scenarios in the transport sector
Investment in the
transport sector (Kyat 5% of total fixed capital formation 10% of total ifixed capital formation
billion) 15% of total fixed capital formation
7877 billion Kyat
8,000
7,000
6,000
5251 billion Kyat
5,000 3246 billion Kyat
4,000
2084 billion Kyat
3,000 2084 billion Kyat 2164 billion Kyat
2,000
1389 billion Kyat 1082 billion Kyat
1,000
0 695 billion Kyat
Note: 1 billion Kyat = 1.14 million USD (1 USD=880Kyat) = 1.08 Oku Yen (1USD=95Yen)
45

Impact on Government Finance
 Revenue, expenditure, capital expenditure: Referring “Myanmar Staff

Monitored-Program (IMF, January 2013)”
 Proportion of transport sector investment to the total government capital
expenditure in 2030:
• 14.0% (5% scenario) – too low
• 27.9% (10% scenario)
• 41.9% (15% scenario) – too high
 About 10% of the total Government FCF will be the likely scenario of the
government capital expenditure in the transport sector.
46
6. Environmental Framework –
suitability analysis

Environmental Sensitivity Analysis
• Regulation (protected areas, reserved forest,
protected public forest, MOECAF)
• Ecological hotspot (type of forest – mangrove,
etc., biodiversity)
Classification
Available
Sensitive
Very Sensitive
Interpretation
• Available: possible to build major transport
infrastructure with careful consideration on
local conditions
• Sensitive: possible to build major transport
infrastructure with very careful consideration
on the environment
• Very Sensitive: not recommended to build
major transport systems (protected areas)
47

Risk Analysis on Natural Disaster
• Flood‐prone areas (days in flood)
• Landslide‐prone areas (slope, rainfall,
geology, distance from active faults)
• Earthquake (seismic areas in the past)
• Cyclone (route, frequency)
Classification
Low
Medium
High
Interpretation
• Low: major (trunk) transport system can be
developed safely
• Medium: Disaster preventive measures are
needed.
• High: not recommended to build major
systems other than local systems
48

Consolidated Suitability Analysis
• Environmental Sensitivity Analysis
• Risk Analysis on Natural Disaster
Classification
Suitable
Usable, subject to local conditions
Unsuitable
Interpretation
• Suitable: possible to build major transport
infrastructure with careful consideration on
the local conditions
• Usable: it is possible to build major transport
infrastructure, but subject to local conditions,
and requires careful consideration.
• Unsuitable: not recommended to develop in
principle
49
7. National Spatial Development Framework (NSDF)

MYT‐Plan NSDF Concept of
Multi‐Centric Balanced Development Strategy
 National Growth Centers:
Nay Pyi Taw, Yangon, Mandalay /
Sagaing
 Regional Growth Centers: Myitkyina,
Sittwe/Kyaukphyu, Pathein,
Bago(Hanthawaddy), Mawlamyine,
Dawei
 Agro‐industrial Centers: Lashio,
Shwebo, Kale, Monywa, Meiktila,
Taunggyi, Taungoo , Magway, Pyay,
Hinthada, Thaton, Hpa‐an
 Special Function Growth Centers:
Muse, Tamu, Nyaung‐U, Kengtung,
Tachileik, Myawaddy, Myeik
50
7. National Spatial Development Framework (NSDF)
1a

Consistency with DHSHD Concept
Capital City
(Administrative, Transport & Logistic Hub)
National Economic Growth Center
(SEZ, Port, Int’l Airport, Trading, Financial)
Secondary Regional Growth Center
(Administrative, Transport & Logistic Hub)
Other Growth Center
(Town with more than 50,000 inhabitants)
51
8. Transport Demand – passenger movement

2013 2030 52
2013
8. Transport Demand – freight movement
2030
53

9. Summary of Transport Sub‐sector in Myanmar

AIR TRANSPORT INLAND WATER ROAD RAILWAY MARITIME
OWNERSHIP
- Ministry Min. of Transport (MOT) Min. of Transport (MOT) Min. of Construction (MOC) Min. of Rail Transport Min. of Transport (MOT)
(MORT)
- Infrastructure Dept of Civil Aviation Directorate of Water Department of Public Myanma Railways Co. Myanma Port Authority
Resources & Improvement Works (DPW) (MPA)
of River Systems (DWIR)
- Services Myanma Airways (domestic Inland Water Transport Road Transport Enterprise Myanma Railways Co. Myanma Five Star Line
& international) (IWT)
6 other domestic carriers, Several private operators Other shipping lines, e.g.,
e.g. Air Bagan, Yangon Myanmar-Taiwan Co.
Airways Anawar Shipping
REGULATORY
- Crew Flight Standard Division DMA DMA
- Vehicle/Vessel Airworthiness Division DMA Vehicle & Driver licensing Directorate of Marine
by Road Transport Administration (DMA)
Administration, under
- Terminal/Port Aerodrome Standards & DWIR MPA
Safety Division
54
9. Summary of Transport Sub‐sector in Myanmar (continued)

DEMAND
- Pax 3.5m domestic (2012); 22m pax in 2011 2,028 million pax-km 67.6m pax in 2011; using No data. Likely to be
2.0m international (2011) 248 pax-trains/day insignificant
- Freight negligible 4.7m tons of cargo in 2011 25.2m tons carried on 3.3m tons in 2011; using 22m MT in 2012
trucks (2011) 21 freight trains/day
SUPPLY 27 Domestic Airports 6,650 km of navigable rivers; 142,395km of roads; of About 5,865km route 9 ports under MPA
(paved) 5 river network which 18,740 are national length
28 unpaved airports More than 400 rivercrafts 39,241 km under the MOC 386 locomotives
owned by IWT
3 International Airports, but Two jetties: Yangon & 432,504 vehicles + 1.9m 1,252 pax coaches
only 2 have int'l flights Pathein. No fixed structure in MCs in 2011
other riverports
Buses of various sizes, 3,311 freight wagons
mostly private operated
REGULATORY
- Crew Flight Standard Division DMA DMA
- Vehicle/Vessel Airworthiness Division DMA Vehicle & Driver licensing Directorate of Marine
by Road Transport Administration (DMA)
Administration, under
- Terminal/Port Aerodrome Standards & DWIR MPA
Safety Division
55
9. Summary of Transport Sub‐sector in Myanmar (continued)

PRIVATE SECTOR PARTICIPATION
Plans Corporatization of Myanma Private company interested Privatization of 82 roads Intent to bring in private Development of deep
Airways with subsequent in developing Pathein port to (~4,590kms) is in the sector on the Yangon seaport on the Andaman
privatization handle rice pipeline suburban & circular lines Coast. 4 candidate sites
(Thilawa, Dawei, Sittwe,
Kyaukphyu)
Current acitivities Concessionaires selected On-going privatization of Hutchinson Port Holdings

on the development of 3 road construction and develope and operate the
int'l airports (Yangon, maintenance; probably Thilawa Port
Hanthawaddy, Mandalay) maintenance service
under PPP contract
Past & Present Pioneer Aerodrome It was claimed that the Sleeper factory is private
Services Ltd has 30-year Mandalay-Lacio-Muse
O&M contract for Yangon Highway was built on BOT
Airport terminal, plus 60- basis at 30 year
year contract on concession
Naypyidaw
Export cargo terminal 60 roads (5,655kms) said
under Mingalardon Cargo to be contracted to 28
Services Co. Ltd private companies
56

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ミャンマー国全国運輸交通プログラム形成準備調査

Myanmar National Transport Development Master Plan

Myanmar National Transport Development Master Plan

Myanmar National Transport Development Master Plan

 MYT-Plan is designed to be read in conjunction with Myanmar’s National

Myanmar National Transport Development Master Plan

‘To develop an efficient, modern, safe, and environmentally-

Myanmar National Transport Development Master Plan

Maritime and Inland Water

Civil Aviation Sub-sector

Myanmar National Transport Development Master Plan

Myanmar National Transport Development Master Plan

Myanmar National Transport Development Master Plan

Myanmar National Transport Development Master Plan

Myanmar National Transport Development Master Plan

Myanmar National Transport Development Master Plan

Myanmar National Transport Development Master Plan

Myanmar National Transport Development Master Plan

Myanmar National Transport Development Master Plan

Myanmar National Transport Development Master Plan

Myanmar National Transport Development Master Plan

Myanmar National Transport Development Master Plan

Myanmar National Transport Development Master Plan

Myanmar National Transport Development Master Plan

Myanmar National Transport Development Master Plan

Unit: billion Kyat at 2013 constant prices

Investment 2014 - 2030 +

Myanmar National Transport Development Master Plan

2020 – 2030 – Well balanced funding

Myanmar National Transport Development Master Plan

Myanmar National Transport Development Master Plan

Myanmar National Transport Development Master Plan

Jetty 90m x 2 = 180m

Myanmar National Transport Development Master Plan

Myanmar National Transport Development Master Plan

POLICY COMPONENT Cross-sector Studies INFRASTRUCTURE COMPONENT

Key Strategic Issues and Integrated Transport Network

Proposed Projects / Action

Myanmar National Transport Development Master Plan

Myanmar National Transport Development Master Plan

Myanmar National Transport Development Master Plan

Year 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Likely

Low 59.8 63.4 66.5 68.9 70.3 70.9 70.4

Myanmar National Transport Development Master Plan

Myanmar National Transport Development Master Plan

500 5.4 times Scenario 1

Myanmar National Transport Development Master Plan

Myanmar National Transport Development Master Plan

billion Kyat Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3

Source: MYT-Plan JICA Study Team

Investment expenditures in the transport sector in 2003

Myanmar National Transport Development Master Plan

(Enhancing Regional Cooperation In Infrastructure Development including that

Myanmar National Transport Development Master Plan

Myanmar National Transport Development Master Plan

 Investment scenarios in the transport sector

Scenario 2 Fixed Capital Formation x (three scenarios (levels) : 5%,

 Accumulated investment amount from 2014 to 2030 (16 years):

• 24 trillion kyat (5%)

• 48 trillion kyat (10%)

• 72 trillion kyat (15%)

Myanmar National Transport Development Master Plan