Diurnal Temperature Range of Tezpur (1995-2014) - A Temporal

Analysis

It is widely debated and the scientific community is also divided regarding the
phenomena called climate change. And climate change or variabilty is often
understood by one of the major climatic phenomena – global warming or cooling. To
understand global warming or cooling, changes in the mean surface temperature are
termed as a useful indicator. On the other hand, changes in daily maximum and
minimum temperatures provide more information than the mean alone (Karl, et al.,
2004).1 Over the last 50 year, observed surface warming over land has been associated
with relatively larger increases in daily minimum temperature than in maximum
temperatures, though both show significant increases (Karl, et al., 2004). As a result,
the Diurnal Temperature Range (DTR) i.e. the difference between maximum and
minimum temperature, has been increasing over vast land areas of the world.
(Jhajharia D. & Singh V., 2011)2. That is why DTR is an important index of climate
variability and it is also receiving considerable attention across the globe recently.

For the same objective, a specific station, Tezpur in the state of Assam has been chosen
so as to check whether any similar trends has been observed in this particular station
as well in the 20-year time period between 1995-2014.

Literature Review

Karl et al. (1993) had taken into account the changes in Tmax and Tmin over a large
portion of the earth and had found increase in Tmax by 0.28˚C and in Tmin by 0.84˚C.

Jhajharia D. & Singh V., 2011 in their paper have used the Mann-Kendall test to
ascertain the trends in temperature and DTR. In this test, if the computed test statistic
vslues lie within limits -1.96 and 1.96 (-2.326 and 2.326), the null hypothesis of no
trend in the seies cannot be rejected at the 5% (1%) level of significance using a two-
tailed test.
Database

The source of all the data collected is the Indian Daily Weather Report (IDWR)
handbook published by IMD on a monthly basis. The daily data for Tmax, Departure,
Tmin, Departure were taken and the Diurnal Temperature Range on daily basis was
calculated for all the days in the 20 year period.

Methodology

 Since there were 4 variables in the datasets collected namely the Daily Maximum
Temperature, Departure of Daily Maximum Temperature from 5-day normal,
Daily Minimum Temperature, and Departure of Daily Minimum Temperature
from 5-day normal- there were considerable number of missing data in several
months in almost 70% of the years.
 Therefore, I decided to get a monthly value from the DTR collected on daily basis.
Hence a monthly average Diurnal Temperature Range was calculated for all the
months in all the years.
 All the monthly values are then shown arranged separately for the calculation of
20 year normal DTR for each month. For each month, DTR values corresponding
to 20 years has been plotted in a line graph so as to see the trend, if any.
 Also, from the monthly normal DTR values, departure was calculated for the the
average DTR values of that month for all the years.
 Again the the DTR values were computed season wise – seasons as described by
IMD, namely Winter Season (Jan-Feb), Pre-Monsoon Season (March-May),
SouthWest Monsoon Season (June-September), Post-Monsoon season (October-
December) and were plotted for the whole 20 year period along with the
Centred Moving Average (CMA) line, to see the pattern in DTR over seasons
and the trend in change (increasing or decreasing) over the years. At the end,
Trend Component is computed in the analysis.
 An annual DTR value has also been generated by the average of the average
monthly DTR, using which Mann-Kendall Test has been computed.

After plotting the information about normal DTR for all the months, monthly
average DTR and their deviation from normal, seasonal average DTR and their
deviation from CMA, the results are observed and described.
Results and Interpretation

a) M-K Test: The test statistic computed is 2.88 and is larger than 1.96 and
2.326 as well. Therefore we can say that the null hypothesis (that there is no
trend) is rejected for both 5% and 1% level of significance. There is a positive
trend.

b) Annual DTR:

The annual Diurnal Temperature Range shown here is the result of the average of all
the monthly averages of the Diurnal Temperature Range. If we just see it even
casually, the annual DTR in 1995 was 8.80˚C but by 2014, it rose upto 10.58˚C.

14
Years Annual Diurnal Annual DTR
Temperature 12
Range (DTR)
10
Temperature (˚C)

1995 8.80
1996 9.80 8
1997 9.15
6
1998 8.75
1999 10.14 4
2000 9.16 2
2001 9.32
2002 9.32 0
1996

2006
1995

1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005

2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2003 8.56
2004 8.52
2005 9.41
2006 10.58 The difference in the DTR values of 1995 and 2014 gives
2007 9.49
the result 1.26˚C, i.e. the decadal change in DTR is 0.63˚C.
2008 10.13
Moreover, from 2006 to 2014, in 9 years, 7 times the
2009 10.30
2010 9.71
annual DTR has exceeded 10˚C. Also prior to 2006 till
2011 11.20 1995, only once did annual DTR touched 10˚C i.e. in 1999.
2012 12.46
Also the mean annual DTR for the period 1995-2014 is
2013 10.33
2014 10.06 9.76˚C. It means on an average 9.76˚C is the central value
of DTR for the whole 20 year period. When standard
deviation is calculated, it is 0.95˚C, meaning every variable is on an average 0.95˚C
deviating from the central value. The coefficient of variation is 9.75%.
 c) Monthly average DTR:

JANUARY-FEBRUARY (Winter Season)

DTR in January DTR in February

16 18
14 16
Temperature (˚C)

12 14

Temperature (˚C)
10 12
8 10
6 8
4 6
2 4
0 2
0
1995199719992001200320052007200920112013
January DTR Normal
February DTR Normal

January and February months are taken together because January and February
constitutes the winter season in our country as prescribed by IMD. In both January and
February, the 20 year normal DTR is 12.23˚C and 12.64˚C respectively. Both the
months have witnessed positive departure of DTR from normal since 2006, whereas
prior to 2005, only 2(3) years were above normal for January (February). The
standard deviation of DTR for January and February are 1.51 and 1.93 respectively.
The coefficients of variation for both the months are 12.35 and 15.28 respectively. It
means that February DTR values are both dispersed more from their respective
central values and are more widely spread from each other in comparison to January
DTR values. It signifies less abrupt nature of change in DTR in January vis-a-vis
February.

MARCH-MAY (Pre-Monsoon Season)

The months of March, April and May falls under the Pre-Monsoon Season. The normal
DTR values of March, April and May are 12.43˚C, 9.91˚C and and 8.59˚C respectively.
The standard deviation for the DTR values for the months of March, April and May are
1.61, 1.45 and 1.22 respectively. It means that as the months proceeds from March to
June the difference between the Daily Maximum (Tmax) and Daily Minimum (Tmin)
 DTR in March
16
14

Temperature (˚C)
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

March DTR Normal

DTR in April DTR in May

14 14
12 12
Temperature (˚C)

Temperature (˚C)
10 10
8 8
6 6
4 4
2 2
0 0
1995199719992001200320052007200920112013 1995199719992001200320052007200920112013

April DTR Normal May DTR Normal

temperature begins to decline. Also, the declining standard deviation with declining
mean DTR values for the subsequent months indicate that the extremeties in the daily
temperature is declining and that is happening with increasing consistency as the
months proceeds. The normal DTR value is lowest of the three in May and also the
standard deviation is lowest in May, which means that the deviation of the individual
DTR values from their corresponding central value is lowest in May, hence not much
fluctuations in DTR in May relatively. Moreover April has seen lesser number of times
positive departure in the period post 2005 in comparison to other two months.
 JUNE-SEPTEMBER (Southwest Monsoon Season)

DTR in June DTR in July

10 12
Temperature (˚C)

Temperature (˚C)
8 10
8
6
6
4 4
2 2
0 0

June DTR Normal July DTR Normal

DTR in August DTR in September

12 10
Temperature (˚C)

Temperature (˚C)
10 8
8
6
6
4
4
2 2
0 0

August DTR Normal September DTR Normal

The Southwest monsoon season, as the name says, is the monsoon period with
maximum rainfall. Rainfall, as we know brings a cooling effect to the temperature
difference and which is why the rainy days especially in the peak monsoon period
experiences low diurnal temperature range. The Normal DTR for the months of June,
July, August and September are 7.53˚C, 6.58˚C, 6.84˚C and 7.30˚C respectively. Thus it
shows that the lowest DTR value of all the 4 months and all the months so far has been
in the month of July. It is mainly due to high Daily Minimum Temperature (Tmin) values.
Also, the standard deviations of DTR values are 0.78˚C, 1.08˚C, 1.08˚C and 1.01˚C for
the months of June, July, August and September respectively. It means that the
dispersion of individual values from the mean value is lowest in June and thus close to
the central values.
 OCTOBER-DECEMBER (Post-Monsoon Season)

DTR in October
14
12

Temperature (˚C)
10
8
6
4
2
0

October DTR Normal

DTR in November DTR in December

18 18
16 16
14
Temperature (˚C)
14
Temperature (˚C)

12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6 4
4 2
2 0
0
1995199719992001200320052007200920112013

November DTR Normal December DTR Normal

These three months, October, November and December shows an increasing trend in
the normal DTR values. The normal DTR values for the months of October, November
and December are 9.44˚C, 11.63˚C and 12.40˚C respectively. The increasing trend of
DTR is due to the sharp fall in the Daily Minimum Temperature (Tmin) values. The Daily
Maximum Temperature value also falls but the rate at which the Tmax values falls is
lesser than the Tmin values. The standard deviation of the DTR values for the months of
October, November and December are 1.44˚C, 2˚C, and 1.66˚C respectively. It means
that the DTR values for the month of November are more widely distributed from the
mean value. It implies that the DTR in November is more inconsistent to its normal
than the other two months.
 d) Normal DTR values (1995-2014):

Normal
Month DTR (˚C) Normal DTR (1995-2014)
Jan 12.23
14
Feb 12.65
12
Mar 12.43
10
Apr 9.91
May 8.59 8
Jun 7.13 6
Jul 6.58 4
Aug 6.84 Temperature (˚C)
2
Sep 7.30 0
Oct 9.44 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Nov 11.63 DTR (˚C)
Dec 12.40

From this above representation of the normal DTR values, we can easily decipher
that the Daiurnal Temperature Range follows a particular pattern. If we start from
January we can see that the normal DTR values remains above 12˚C till March
(reaches maximum in February and starts dipping from March). From March the
normal DTR values starts decreasing till it reaches July where it touches the lowest
DTR value of 6.58˚C. From July till December, it keeps on increasing at higher rate
till November, after which rate of increase slows down as it increases from 11.63˚C
(Nov.) to 12.40˚C (Dec.). The reason for the decreasing trend of the normal DTR
values from February till July is the tendency of increase in the Daily minimum
temperature at a rate higher than the increase in Daily Maximum Temperature.

e) Trend Analysis: By using the Classical (Simple) Multiplicative Model of Time

Series Analysis, we can compute the trend.

The trend component was computed (using regression technique) seasonally and
was averaged out for a single value for each year. The rate of change in the trend
component was 0.09˚C or 0.1˚C per year.
 Trend Trend Component (˚C)
Component,
12
Years Tt (˚C)
1995 9.22 10

Temperature (˚C)
1996 9.33 8
1997 9.43
6
1998 9.54
1999 9.64 4
2000 9.75 2
2001 9.85
0
2002 9.95
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2003 10.06
2004 10.16 Trend Component (˚C)
2005 10.27
2006 10.37
2007 10.48
2008 10.58
2009 10.69
2010 10.79
2011 10.90
2012 11.00
2013 11.11
2014 11.21

Conclusion
The rise and fall in Tmax and Tmin is not uniform across the world. In many parts of
the world, Tmin is increasing at a much faster rate than Tmax and hence causing DTR
to decrease and in some parts not much change in DTR is observed (Archana, et al.,
2012)3. The global decreasing trend in the Diurnal Temperature Range does not
hold true for this region. Here, clearly an increasing trend can be seen. Also, the
trend of annual increase in DTR of 0.1˚C means significant rise in Tmax values since
increasing tendency of Tmin has also been witnessed globally and in India as well.
Keeping other climatic factors constant, we can expect the DTR to further increase
as a result of falling Tmin or rising Tmax, which in this case latter seems more
probable.
 References

1. Braganza, K., D.J. Karoly, J.M. Arblaster (2004), Diurnal Temperature Range as an
index of global climate change during the twentieth century, Geophysical Research
Letters, 31, L13217.
2. Jhajharia, D., V.P. Singh (2011), Trends in temperature, diurnal temperature range
and sunshine duration in Northeast India, International Journal of Meteorology, 31:
1353-1367.
3. Rai, A., M. K. Joshi, and A. C. Pandey (2012), Variations in diurnal temperature
range over India: Under global warming scenario, Journal of Geophysical Research.,
117, D02114.