Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
David Fisher
Agenda
01 Industry Analysis
Industry Definition, Industry History, Industry Trends, Analyst
Reports, P orter’s Five Forces Analysis, Competition, Risk Factors
(short-term, long-term), Industry Outlook
02 Company Analysis
Company B ackground, Organizational S tructure, Management
Team, Mergers & A cquisitions, Corporate B usiness Model,
Historical Financial Analysis (Balance S heet, Income S tatement,
Cash Flow S tatement), A nalyst Reports
03 LBO Analysis
Strength o f L BO, Growth Model S trategy, Capital S tructure, Control
Premium, P rojections Assumptions, P rojections, Comparables,
LBO Model, A djusted P resent Value (APV) Model, L iquidation
Modell, Return Analysis (ROI, MOI)
Mealey, Lorri. “A History of the Rise of the Modern Day Restaurant.” The
Balance Small Business, The Balance, 13 Dec. 2018
Restaurant Industry Segmentation
Chain Mom & Pop
Fine Dining
Restaurants Shops
PPT Presentation
Flemming's
P rime S teakhouse a nd Wine B ar
Stores licensed by parent
French Cuisine 12.4%
Morton's The S teak House company, typically larger in Spanish Cuisine 7.7%
Other Fine Dining store count with recognizable
brand Italian Cuisine 8.3%
Other 9.1%
Hyland, Rachel. "Premium Steak Restaurants in the US." IBISWorld, 2019. Accessed February 02, 2019.
Supply Chain
Buy Goods a nd S ervices
Organization sources a variety o f vendors b ased o n
1 Plan for P urchases
Organization d ecides what p roducts should they
2
geographical location a nd p roduct type. S ince fine offer to customers, h ow much a re they selling, what
dining contains the h ighest q uality p roducts, g oods price would they p ay, a nd where it is coming from.
are rather d ifficult to find a nd h ave limited q uantities Key Factors: P rice, Time
Key Factors: Relationship, B rand
Waste
Restaurants e fficiency is b uilt o n creating minimal 3 Delivery & Consumption
Suppliers d eliver g oods to restaurant. Food
4
spoilage a nd waste in p roducts. Unfortunately, e ach undergoes a series o f p rocesses d epending o n the
year 6 3 million tons o f food is wasted in US, product a nd store, a nd is e ventually sold a nd
11.4MM d edicated to restaurants, b ut o nly .8MM consumed b y customer
tons b y fine d ining.
Purchase Analysis
Organization reviews the p revious p urchase o f 5 Recycling & Donations
Oftentimes, restaurants turn surplus that is turning
6
goods a nd services, d etermining if g oods were fairly or will turn in the n ear future a nd a n on-selling item
priced, freshness o f g oods, customer satisfaction o f and d onate to food shelters a nd soup kitchens.
product, e tc. Other times, vegetables a nd u sed o il a re recycled
and a re u sed a s fuel
Jennings, Lisa. “What Restaurants Can Do to Reduce Food Waste.” Restaurant Hospitality, 8 Feb. 2018,
Porter’s Five Forces Analysis
02 04
Market h as tremendous p ush a nd p ull
Rivalry likely to increase a s the n umber o f Suppliers h ave more p ower o ver
factors that d irectly e ffect the p erformance
new e nterprises is p rojected to g row b y a n smaller chains, p remium restaurants
of the industry. Difficulty managing supply
annualized rate of 3.3%. Concentration low, face challenges a s n ecessity o f chain a nd substitutions makes industry
top 4 p layers p osses u nder 3 5% market rare/quality ingredients is d ifficult a nd
difficult.
share controlled b y few
Hyland, Rachel. "Premium Steak Restaurants in the US." IBISWorld, 2019. Accessed February 02, 2019.
Industry Trends
Organizational Structure
Key Trends Standard Cost-Structure
Owner Increasing Organizational Costs
Due to the complexity a nd formal n ature o f
fine d ining, job specialization h as increased
Investors labor costs b y in p ast five years b y 1 9.7% Food Costs
Labor Costs
Commercial L easing Difficulties
Building o wners h ave further created Overhead Costs
General
Manager harsher criteria for tenants, making store Upkeep
expansion d ifficult a s 7 9% o f stores a re
Executive
leased (Five Year Growth: 3 .1%)
Maitre D
Chef Ethnic Inspired Cuisine
Increasing sophistication a nd knowledge o f
Head restaurant-goers, chefs must e xpand with
Pasty Chef Captain
Bartender more g lobal flavors increasing costs (2.1% Public Restaurant EV/EBITDA
CAGR) Multiples (2013-2018)
Pastry
Waiter Bartender Vegetable-Centric Cuisine
Cooks
Increase in vegan a nd vegetarian d iets 8.7
Cocktail
(2.3% CAGR), focus o n e xotic p lant-based 9.63
Assistant
Line Cooks Busperson Waiter dishes o r vegetable-centric menu
Chef
9.68
Environmental S ustainability
Bar Back Initiative a nd focus o n e nergy a nd water 9.93
conservation a s well a s food waste
reduction 10.24
“Restaurant Valuation Multiples: Global Trends and Forecasts.” Aaron Allen & Associates, Global Restaurant Consultants, 18 Feb. 2019
Industry Trends
Change in Consumers Key Trends
Change in Clientele
Increasing Pricing on Fine
Category 1990’s 2010’s
Emergence o f youth super wealth a s well as Dining
Men 61% 47% changes in d isposable income d isbursement 8
yields a younger clientele, p rimary b etween
Women 39% 53%
18-34. Trend a lso indicates that o lder 6
generations will n o longer h ave the income
Price
Under 18 1.2% 3.1%
to g o a s frequently to fine d ining, resulting in 4
Age 18-34 15.3% 33.9% change o f p reference to more casual d ining
2
Age 3 5-44 28.7% 31.2% Increasing Operational Difficulty 0
Age 4 5-54 23.5% 9.3% Two o f the most p rominent factors in
determining the success o f a fine d ining
Age 5 5-64 19.0% 6.7% restaurant is the cost o f its steaks a nd
average food p rice, b oth o f which h ave Steak Median P rice (Per L b.)
Age 6 5+ 12.3% 4.4% almost d oubled in a n e ight year span Average Food Item
Hyland, Rachel. "Premium Steak Restaurants in the US." IBISWorld, 2019. Accessed February 02, 2019.
Industry Outlook
The Decline of Capital Spending Historical Projections
• Capital Spending will continue to fall as 2018 h ad the most fine
dining mergers (87), more than the p revious five years combined 40
Players ( MM)
(73). With larger orders, economies of scale for expensive
35
products allows capital spending to b e further stabilized
30
25
2015201620172018201920202021202220232024
Industry Revenue
• Economists predict financial markets short and long-term success.
Greater disposable income will allow fine dining to flourish 30
• Fine dining's exponential spending increase (3x since 2015) o n
(BB)
social media will further spread branding a wareness and g enerate 20
strong returns (2015 yielded a 9.2% conversion rate)
10
0
2015201620172018201920202021202220232024
Overall Financial Projections (Five-Year)
• Revenue Growth Rate – 2.6% Revenue for the fine d ining industry h as reaching its climax, b ut
• Industry is saturated, entering ‘long-term slow-growth phase’ o f will still grow a s the e conomy h as still shown signs o f p romise.
maturity Additionally, a nalysts h ave p redicted this to b e the consolidation
• EBITDA Growth – 1.7% era within this industry, a s ~20% o f firms will e ither close o r b e
• Advancements in Management Information Systems will allow subject to M&A b y 2 024
computerization and a utomation to advance margins slightly
Hyland, Rachel. "Premium Steak Restaurants in the US." IBISWorld, 2019. Accessed February 02, 2019.
Company Analysis
Del Frisco’s Restaurant Group
History of Del Frisco’s
Expansion to New
IPO & Minor Expansion
Announces o ffer p rice
Markets
Purchase o f B arteca
on IPO o f $ 13 raising
Minor Expansion Efforts Restaurant Group,
$75.4MM. Opens one of
Launches three n ew stores in owner o f B arcelona Win
he largest steakhouses
new Texas regions. Revamping Bar a nd B artaco for
in Chicago. Change in
of o riginal restaurant o n B elt $325MM. Gained 3 1
Chief Operating Officer.
Line Road locations in 1 0 states
Strength Weakness
SWOT
Threat
Opportunity
• Economic d ownturn could instantly h urt the o verall
• Economic u ptick a nd increase in consumer spending, performance
financial markets p rojected to g row a nd create further • Consolidation o f local d istributors a nd meat supply
wealth in midwest and southeast organizations creates d ifficulty in n egotiating with
• New h ealth conscious consumers a nd a wareness o f suppliers
nutrition a lign with Del Frisco’s p latform • Highly seasonal p roducts, introduction o f e xpanded
• Decreasing cost o f transportation (-3.28% CAGR since product line could h ave p oor customer satisfaction
2015) can lead to b etter COGS a nd h igher margins
Relations, Investor. “10-K.” Investor Relations, Del Frisco's Restaurant Group, Inc.
Historical Financial Performance
INCOME STATEMENT 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Sales & Cost of Goods Sold
Sales 220,893 252,629 273,884 293,827 378,216
• Growth in sales due to expansion of locations
Cost of Goods Sold 163,807 188,926 205,337 225,137 295,875
• Surprisingly grew even through a major segment of the b usiness was sold
Gross Profit 57,086 63,703 68,547 68,690 82,341
SG&A 30,655 36,380 33,485 63,013 83,230 EBITDA
EBITDA 36,376 40,148 49,965 23,272 -889 • Drastic changes in EBITDA due to losing most profitable segment. However,
management projections due to drastic expansion in customer base will
supposedly allow this negative to be an a nomaly
Liquidity Ratios
Ratio 2018 2017 2016 2015
• Current Ratio is drastically improving, meaning that assets are improving faster
Current Ratio 1.54 1.41 1.10 1.28 than liabilities
• More efficient operations, smaller accounts payable a nd other major liabilities
Quick Ratio 2.50 2.44 1.69 2.38 • Considered slightly low, a 'strong' Current ratio is usually considered to be
two
Cash Ratio 10.00 11.11 3.45 9.09
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 22% 23% 25% 24%
• Gross margin, operating margin remaining relatively constant as expansion
efforts take place
Operating Margin 6% 4% 7% 7%
• Profitability margin drastic growth (5x growth), as inefficient business
Profit Margin 20% 4% 6% 5% segments were sold/underwent organizational and o perational changes
Relations, Investor. “10-K.” Investor Relations, Del Frisco's Restaurant Group, Inc.
Historical Financial Performance
BALANCE SHEET 2015 2016 2017 2018
Cash and Cash Equivalents $5,176 $14,622 $4,553 $8,535
Assets Short-Term Investments $0 $0 $0 $0
Net Receivables $7,739 $7,624 $5,108 $9,636
• Drastic growth in inventory due to the Inventory $17,308 $16,400 $15,539 $22,461
increase in restaurant concentration Other Current Assets $6,774 $8,034 $11,803 $17,327
Total Current Assets $36,997 $46,680 $37,003 $57,959
• Other Current Assets growth accompanied by
the purchase of locations rather than the Fixed Assets $183,191 $195,992 $210,384 $287,803
leasing of locations Goodwill $75,365 $75,365 $43,928 $156,131
Intangible Assets $36,865 $37,409 $20,284 $206,573
Liabilities Other Assets $282 $282 $543 $4,010
Deferred Asset Charges $13,955 $15,054 $16,327 $13,556
• 2018 was the first time period where the Total Assets $346,655 $370,782 $328,469 $726,032
company took on short-term debt, drastic
Accounts Payable $24,572 $22,681 $24,357 $58,000
increase in long term debt Short-Term Debt $0 $0 $0 $4,814
• Large increase in accounts payable due to the Other Current Liabilities $22,815 $28,395 $27,474 $26,843
large purchase orders in order to achieve Total Current Liabilities $47,387 $51,076 $51,831 $89,657
economies of scale pricing
Long-Term Debt $4,500 $0 $24,477 $332,564
Other Liabilities $2,100 $2,242 $10,582 $1,828
Stockholder's Equity Deferred Liability Charges $64,969 $71,098 $52,492 $88,401
Total Liabilities $118,956 $124,416 $139,382 $512,450
• Surprisingly for a restaurant organization, it
hedges itself through the economic downturns Common Stocks $24 $24 $24 $37
by investing in treasury stock, which has been Capital Surplus $137,601 $143,325 $147,503 $248,618
producing negative returns Retained Earnings $103,074 $120,840 $109,383 $33,379
Treasury Stock -$13,000 -$17,823 -$67,823 -$67,823
• Capital Surplus has been extremely strong Other Equity $0 $0 $0 -$629
between 2017 and 2018 Total Equity $227,699 $246,366 $189,087 $213,582
Relations, Investor. “10-K.” Investor Relations, Del Frisco's Restaurant Group, Inc.
Historical Financial Performance
Key Findings
STATEMENT OF CASH FLOW 2015 2016 2017 2018
• Net Income has had tremendous Net Income $15,998 $17,766 -$11,457 -$76,303
fluctuations due the changes in Depreciation $16,118 $17,727 $22,347 $24,552
Net Income Adjustments $9,670 $5,268 $26,334 $44,472
subsidiaries through acquisition Accounts Receivable $5,760 $2,692 $8,065 $10,845
• Depreciation has significantly increased Changes in Inventories
Other Operating Activities
-$716
-$3,161
$908
$810
-$1,629
$61
-$4,605
-$1,963
due to the amount of stores and Liabilities $2,199 $4,644 -$5,656 $14,204
operating equipment Net Cash Flow-Operating $45,868 $49,815 $38,024 $11,168
• Large sale block of shares in 2018, Capital Expenditures -$46,150 -$36,698 -$39,426 -$85,838
brings up potential questions as to how Other Investing Activities -$380 $2,530 $15,497 -$296,647
much faith management has in the Net Cash Flows-Investing -$46,530 -$34,168 -$23,929 -$382,485
Relations, Investor. “10-K.” Investor Relations, Del Frisco's Restaurant Group, Inc.
Analyst Reports
Price Analysis vs. Predictions (May 1st Value)
ANALYST REPORT 60.00
You can Resize without DFRG
RANKINGS
losing quality 50.00 Zacks
RANK SITE
You can Change Fill 40.00 Reuters
Color & Morningstar
#1
Line Color Zacks 30.00
NASDAQ
20.00
#2 Reuters Yahoo Finance
10.00
#3 Morningstar Seeking A lpha
- Market Watch
#4 NASDAQ 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
#5 Yahoo Finance
DRFG vs. Analyst Eight of ten firms see
#6 Seeking Alpha Median DFRG as Recent Acquisition of
FREE
#7 Market Watch 30.00
undervalued
between 1.07x -
Barteca hurt short-
term public returns
2.78x
PPT
#8 The Street
20.00
10.00
TEMPLATES
#9 Wall Street Journal
-
Geographical
expansion and Brand potential
award recognition diluted by drastically
#10
www.allppt.com FinViz consistent with stock different subsidiaries
DFRG Analyst Report Median growth
Relations, Investor. “10-K.” Investor Relations, Del Frisco's Restaurant Group, Inc.
LBO Analysis
Del Frisco’s Restaurant Group
Private Equity Firm
Sun Capital Partners Inc.
2018 Highlights
$600MM
• Focused on identifying • Bar Louie 4 Acquisitions Capital
History
Sc-Gsadmin, Albert. “About Us | Sun Capital Partners.” Sun Capital Partners, Inc. | Private Equity Firm, Sun Capital Partners Inc.
2019 Projection Year
(Acquisition Year)
Stock Performance
Store Growth
500000
400000
Assumptions Projections
• Calculated revenue • Low: +5.2%
300000 per store for 2018 • Median: +24%
200000
• Used ratio to • High: +35.2%
determine 2019 • Price not indicative
100000 revenue based on of the strong brand
number of name, hurt by recent
0 projected stores
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 acquisition multiple
added pricing
Management S ales P rojections
Sun Capital P artners S ales P rojections
Geographical Cost
Expansion of
Current
Other
Expansion
Increase goods, expansion of s tores, lean management
organizational s tructure of s tores
Expansion Reduction
Portfolio Methodologies EBITDA •Introduce take-out, be available on GrubHub,
OpenTable, more s ocial media f ocus
•Franchising options, receive f ranchise f ees
Diversifying
Create 'Hub' within Simplification of restaurant portfolio Ability to expand
California and West organizational with other food multiple by •Simplification of organizational s tructure
coast, be first
steakhouse group
to dominate the
structure, combine
and empower
employees for more
genres, but also
containing similar
product items
introduction of new
products (bottling
sauces, franchising
Decrease •Shrinkage of menu t o reduce labor c osts
(currently 41% v s. 35% industry avg.)
region responsibility (meats, vegetables,
etc.)
model for stores)
Costs •Structuring more f avorable leases for longer t erm,
less growth per y ear
Greater
Turn off hours of
Growth in
concentration of
Better management Creating synergies business into •Can purchase other organizations t o become a
restaurants in of inventory and with the current
areas with poor hosting events, restaurant c onglomerate with diverse f ood genres
control food costs portfolio of Sun cooking classes,
Exit
pricing (Florida, (Currently 5.6% of Capital Partners •Must achieve drastic growth in s tore c ount and
Northeast) to restaurant training
counterbalance
food is wasted) investments sessions, wine geographic c oncentration
tastings, etc.
Multiple
supplier power •Introduction of c onsumer products t o s ell (Ex.
steak s auce)
Private Equity Firm
Typical LBO Transaction Structure
Percent of Cost of
Offering Leading Parameters Likely Sources
Transaction Capital
• Commercial Banks
• 5-7 Year Payback
• Credit companies
Senior Debt 50-60% 7-10% • 2-3x EBITDA
• Insurance Companies
• 2x Interest Coverage
• Public Market
Mezzanine • 7-10 Year Payback
20-30% 10-20% • Insurance Companies
Financing • 1-2x EBITDA
• LBO/Mezzanine Funds
• Management
• LBO Funds
Equity 20-30% 25-40% • 4-6 Year Exit Strategy
• Subordinated debt holders
• Investment Banks
Ivashina, Victoria, et al. “Note on LBO Capital Structure.” Note on LBO Capital Structure - Module Note - Harvard Business School
Sun Capital Partners Stucture
Senior Debt Mezzanine Financing Equity
Sc-Gsadmin, Albert. “About Us | Sun Capital Partners.” Sun Capital Partners, Inc. | Private Equity Firm, Sun Capital Partners Inc.
Sun Capital Partners Transactions
Percent of Cost of
Firm Multiple Offering Parameters Partners
Transaction Capital
14.28X Mezzanine
Bar Louie 35.3% 12.16% 1.5X+ EBITDA New Spring Capital
EBITDA Financing
15 Year Projected Sun Capital Partners,
Equity 29.7% 35%
Hold Management, CIBC
7.51X 8 Year Projected Sun Capital Partners,
Fazioli’s Equity 100% 31%
EBITDA Hold Management
Sc-Gsadmin, Albert. “About Us | Sun Capital Partners.” Sun Capital Partners, Inc. | Private Equity Firm, Sun Capital Partners Inc.
Exit Strategy Options
Fine Dining Exit Strategies
Initial Public 100.00%
Private Sale Offering Liquidation
90.00%
80.00%
70.00%
Commonly exited Not commonly exited Rare occurrence to exit
through this platform through this platform through this platform
(79% of transactions) (18%) (3%) 60.00%
50.00%
10.00%
Many of their IPO's were
Mission is to grow well branded products Company Return:
EBITDA not grow with high success (Ex. ~4.61% 0.00%
expansion multiple
Boston Market) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Private S ale Initial P ublic Offering
Liquidation Chapter 9
Sc-Gsadmin, Albert. “About Us | Sun Capital Partners.” Sun Capital Partners, Inc. | Private Equity Firm, Sun Capital Partners Inc.
LBO Candidate Valuation
Steady and P redictable Cash Flow Divestible Assets
• Cash flow inconsistent within past five years due to acquisition of Barteca and sale of • Majority of assets comprise of land, cooking equipment, wine, and the high-quality food.
Sullivan’s Steakhouse Besides real estate and machinery, most assets have low transactional movement and narrow
• Prior to these acquisitions, cash flow was consistently positive for 24+ years scope of assets
Transaction: 05/28/99
The Kroger Co Fred Meyer Inc. 13.49x M&A: Poor, Outdated Transaction, Differences in N
Scale/Segment
•Assumed t o f ollow prior Sun Capital Partners t ransaction s tructure and rates from previous
Capital Structure acquisitions and f unds
•Management also provides a good portion of investment t o align incentives
•As opposed t o a s tandard private equity f irm holding period of f ive y ears, Sun Capital Partners
Holding Period has a median holding of 7.92 y ears, t hus, 8 y ears was used in t he f inancial model
•Firm would be exiting v ia private s ale, as t his is not only t he most popular exit s trategy, and
Exit since t he c ompany has already I PO'd before, private s ale is best option
Financial Statement •Financials f or 2019 were projected as a ratio of 2018's restaurants t o t he new number of s tores
by t he end of 2019
Assumptions •Same methodology of f inancial ratio applied t o all y ears - more s tores, more revenue, greater
ability t o c ontrol COGS, etc.
• Management projections • Management projections • Management projections • Net present v alue of a
will be met, as will be outperformed, will be a complete miss, projected finances,
management projections and geographical making geographical growth in EBITDA,
historically have been expansion will go expansion efforts returns, etc.
extremely accurate to greater than expected extremely difficult • Dependent on each
the overall firm • A potential acquisition • No potential acquisitions scenario and success of
performance could aid the overall will occur business model growth
• Synergies will be progress of the firm to • Due to the difficulty of strategy, thus a s cenario
created between DFRG continue s ynergy expansion, financial was created for most
and the other portfolio benefits and create a benefits (synergies) will likely, best c ase and
companies in Sun larger brand not occur, making worst c ase
Capital • Firm will introduce new EBITDA have a minimal
• Firm will leave at the products s uch as s elling growth
same multiple sauces, c reate a large • Firm will be lucky to
franchising platform, etc. leave at the s ame
• Firm will have a slight multiple it was acquired
uptick in multiple for
Most Likely
Business Unit Assumptions
Assumptions Value Reasoning
• Out of the 1 3 stores e xpanded in 2 019, 9 o f them a re b eing p urchased a nd n ot leased. Management p rojects
Depreciation Growth 12.5%
these to b e b etween 1 0-20% d epending o n the location
• Stores grew from 7 3 to 8 6, showing a n 1 8% g rowth. With a n inspired management team a nd the o perational
Store Growth 18% expertise o f S un P ower Capital, we b elieve the g rowth in stores trend will o ccur throughout the transaction
• With the e xpansion o f stores, Capital Expenditures h as a d irect g rowth relation. However, with e very n ew store,
Capital Expenditure S ynergy
75% especially in DFRG’s case where they a re creating ‘Hubs,’ o r regions with many stores to h elp reduce costs, a
Adj.
synergy will a llow these costs to b e stabilized
• With a lean management strategy, the current stores will a lready see a d ramatic d ecrease in costs, reducing
SG&A Expenditure S ynergy number o f e mployees p er store from a median o f 2 8 to 1 9. This is a ccompanied b y the consolidation o f b usboys
80%
Adj. and waiters, b artenders with sommeliers, removal o f a ssistant manager
• Biggest issue o f DFRG is the h igh COGS with relation to its high q uality p roducts a nd low q uantity p urchases. With
the common p roducts b etween DFRG a nd the o ther investments b y S un Capital, the q uantity will b e much h igher,
COGS E xpenditure Synergy
90% allow the p rice p oint to fall significantly
Adj. • Additionally, a b etter inventory system a nd control food cost management style will minimize waste
• This E BITDA growth is b ased o n the e xpansion o f stores a nd the large synergies created. This n umber is a lso
EBITDA Growth 5% supported b y the a nalyst reports, which suggests that if g rowth was constant, E BITDA g rows b etween 2 .5-10%
Most Likely
Business Units
Historical Projected
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Del Frisco
Number of Stores 14 16 21 26 31 37 44 52 62 74 88
Growth 14% 31% 24% 19% 19% 19% 18% 19% 19% 19%
Sales $176,713 $182,957 $240,131 $297,305 $354,479 $423,088 $503,132 $594,610 $708,958 $846,176 $1,006,264
Growth 4% 31% 24% 19% 19% 19% 18% 19% 19% 19%
Cost of Goods Sold $52,944 $54,559 $64,448 $71,813 $77,061 $82,779 $88,595 $94,233 $101,120 $108,622 $116,255
% of Revenues 30% 30% 27% 24% 22% 20% 18% 16% 14% 13% 12%
Gross Profit $123,769 $128,398 $175,683 $225,492 $277,418 $340,309 $414,536 $500,377 $607,839 $737,554 $890,008
Margin 70% 70% 73% 76% 78% 80% 82% 84% 86% 87% 88%
SG&A $76,860 $86,557 $113,606 $112,524 $107,331 $102,483 $97,498 $92,180 $87,925 $83,954 $79,870
% of Revenues 43% 47% 47% 38% 30% 24% 19% 16% 12% 10% 8%
EBITDA $46,909 $41,841 $54,916 $71,391 $89,376 $112,009 $139,859 $173,553 $217,275 $272,295 $340,000
Margin 27% 23% 23% 24% 25% 26% 28% 29% 31% 32% 34%
Depreciation $10,503 $13,786 $15,509 $17,448 $19,628 $22,082 $24,842 $27,948 $31,441 $35,371
% of Revenue 0% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4%
Most Likely
Business Units
Historical Projected
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Del Grill
Number of Stores 21 24 28 32 38 45 54 64 76 90 107
Growth 14% 17% 14% 19% 18% 20% 19% 19% 18% 19%
Sales $117,114 $120,989 $141,154 $161,319 $191,566 $226,854 $272,225 $322,637 $383,132 $453,709 $539,409
Growth 3% 17% 14% 19% 18% 20% 19% 19% 18% 19%
Cost of Goods Sold $30,673 $33,071 $34,725 $35,717 $38,172 $40,684 $43,938 $46,867 $50,090 $53,385 $57,122
% of Revenues 26% 27% 25% 22% 20% 18% 16% 15% 13% 12% 11%
Gross Profit $86,441 $87,918 $106,429 $125,602 $153,394 $186,171 $228,287 $275,770 $333,042 $400,324 $482,287
Margin 74% 73% 75% 78% 80% 82% 84% 85% 87% 88% 89%
SG&A $70,978 $73,167 $85,362 $78,045 $74,143 $70,240 $67,431 $63,934 $60,738 $57,541 $54,728
% of Revenues 61% 60% 60% 48% 39% 31% 25% 20% 16% 13% 10%
EBITDA $15,463 $14,751 $17,210 $20,651 $25,750 $32,018 $40,342 $50,204 $62,598 $77,836 $97,165
Margin 13% 12% 12% 13% 13% 14% 15% 16% 16% 17% 18%
Depreciation $8,307 $9,691 $10,903 $12,266 $13,799 $15,524 $17,464 $19,647 $22,103 $24,866
% of Revenue 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5%
Most Likely
Business Units
Historical Projected
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Barcelona
Number of Stores 15 18 21 25 30 36 43 51 61 72
Growth 20% 17% 19% 20% 20% 19% 19% 20% 18%
Sales $34,084 $40,901 $47,718 $56,807 $68,168 $81,802 $97,707 $115,886 $138,608 $163,603
Growth 20% 17% 19% 20% 20% 19% 19% 20% 18%
Cost of Goods Sold $9,123 $9,853 $10,345 $11,084 $11,971 $12,929 $13,899 $14,836 $15,970 $16,965
% of Revenues 27% 24% 22% 20% 18% 16% 14% 13% 12% 10%
Gross Profit $24,961 $31,048 $37,372 $45,722 $56,197 $68,873 $83,809 $101,050 $122,638 $146,638
Margin 73% 76% 78% 80% 82% 84% 86% 87% 88% 90%
SG&A $17,336 $20,803 $19,416 $18,492 $17,752 $17,042 $16,285 $15,451 $14,785 $13,961
% of Revenues 51% 51% 41% 33% 26% 21% 17% 13% 11% 9%
EBITDA $7,625 $9,150 $11,209 $14,011 $17,654 $22,244 $27,897 $34,742 $43,632 $54,075
Margin 22% 22% 23% 25% 26% 27% 29% 30% 31% 33%
Depreciation $3,227 $3,872 $4,356 $4,901 $5,513 $6,203 $6,978 $7,850 $8,831 $9,935
% of Revenue 9% 9% 9% 9% 8% 8% 7% 7% 6% 6%
Most Likely
Business Units
Historical Projected
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Bartaco
Number of Stores 18 19 20 24 29 35 42 50 59 70
Growth 6% 5% 20% 21% 21% 20% 19% 18% 19%
Sales $40,186 $42,419 $44,651 $53,581 $64,744 $78,139 $93,767 $111,628 $131,721 $156,279
Growth 6% 5% 20% 21% 21% 20% 19% 18% 19%
Cost of Goods Sold $9,232 $8,770 $8,309 $8,974 $9,759 $10,600 $11,448 $12,266 $13,026 $13,909
% of Revenues 23% 21% 19% 17% 15% 14% 12% 11% 10% 9%
Gross Profit $30,954 $33,648 $36,342 $44,608 $54,985 $67,539 $82,319 $99,362 $118,695 $142,370
Margin 77% 79% 81% 83% 85% 86% 88% 89% 90% 91%
SG&A $21,085 $22,256 $18,742 $17,993 $17,393 $16,793 $16,121 $15,354 $14,494 $13,757
% of Revenues 52% 52% 42% 34% 27% 21% 17% 14% 11% 9%
EBITDA $9,869 $10,417 $11,514 $14,507 $18,406 $23,325 $29,390 $36,737 $45,517 $56,704
Margin 25% 25% 26% 27% 28% 30% 31% 33% 35% 36%
Depreciation $3,706 $3,912 $4,401 $4,951 $5,570 $6,266 $7,049 $7,931 $8,922 $10,037
% of Revenue 9% 9% 10% 9% 9% 8% 8% 7% 7% 6%
Most Likely
LBO Model
Historical Projections
INCOME STATEMENT 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Sales $220,893 $252,629 $273,884 $293,827 $378,216 $464,604 $550,993 $656,433 $782,855 $935,298 $1,108,722 $1,319,604 $1,570,214 $1,865,555
Growth 14.4% 8.4% 7.3% 28.7% 22.8% 18.6% 19.1% 19.3% 19.5% 18.5% 19.0% 19.0% 18.8%
Cost of Goods Sold $66,824 $72,260 $76,319 $83,617 $105,985 $117,796 $126,184 $135,291 $145,192 $156,063 $166,447 $178,311 $191,004 $204,251
% of revenues 30.3% 28.6% 27.9% 28.5% 28.0% 25.4% 22.9% 20.6% 18.5% 16.7% 15.0% 13.5% 12.2% 10.9%
Gross Profit $154,069 $180,369 $197,565 $210,210 $272,231 $346,809 $424,808 $521,142 $637,663 $779,235 $942,275 $1,141,293 $1,379,210 $1,661,303
Margin 69.7% 71.4% 72.1% 71.5% 72.0% 74.6% 77.1% 79.4% 81.5% 83.3% 85.0% 86.5% 87.8% 89.1%
SG&A $137,583 $165,871 $177,406 $222,128 $294,833 $242,027 $228,727 $217,958 $207,869 $198,764 $188,520 $179,468 $170,774 $162,316
% of Revenues 62.3% 65.7% 64.8% 75.6% 78.0% 52.1% 41.5% 33.2% 26.6% 21.3% 17.0% 13.6% 10.9% 8.7%
EBITDA 45,120 47,291 51,918 62,372 74,086 91,693 114,765 143,644 180,087 225,771 281,044 351,352 439,279 547,944
Margin 20.4% 18.7% 19.0% 21.2% 19.6% 19.7% 20.8% 21.9% 23.0% 24.1% 25.3% 26.6% 28.0% 29.4%
Depreciation 9,945 12,825 14,903 17,595 21,713 26,672 30,007 33,757 37,977 42,724 48,065 54,073 60,832 68,436
Management fee 6,688 6,688 6,688 6,688 6,688 6,688 6,688 6,688
Interest Expense
Senior Subordinated 17,216 12,382 11,113 10,413 10,227 9,304 7,067 3,072
Jr. Sub 15,960 15,960 15,960 15,960 15,960 15,960 15,960 15,960
Total Interest Expense 33,176 28,342 27,073 26,373 26,187 25,264 23,027 19,032
Pre-tax income 44,896 74,858 108,349 149,986 200,105 265,328 348,733 453,788
Taxes 45.0% 20,203 33,686 48,757 67,494 90,047 119,398 156,930 204,205
Net Income 24,693 41,172 59,592 82,492 110,058 145,930 191,803 249,583
Capital Expenditures 47,481 46,150 36,698 39,426 85,838 75,843 87,308 104,064 124,348 149,041 177,261 210,773 250,459 297,199
Debt:
Senior Subordinated 193,000 138,811 124,581 116,739 114,647 104,304 79,225 34,445 0
Jr. Sub 114,000 114,000 114,000 114,000 114,000 114,000 114,000 114,000 77,417
Total Debt 307,000 251,901 238,581 230,739 228,647 218,304 193,225 148,445 77,417
Interest Rates:
Senior Subordinated 8.92% 8.92% 8.92% 8.92% 8.92% 8.92% 8.92% 8.92%
Jr. Sub 14.0% 14.0% 14.0% 14.0% 14.0% 14.0% 14.0% 14.0%
Senior Debt / EBITDA 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Total Debt / EBITDA 2.2 1.7 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1
At 5.81 x Mult. Of
Equity Returns 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 IRR Investment
Sponsor -178,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 2,303,717 44.2% 12.9 X
Management -50,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 802,418 48.7% 16.0 X
At 6.00 x Mult. Of
Equity Returns 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 IRR Investment
Sponsor -178,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 2,380,932 44.8% 13.4 X
Management -50,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 829,313 49.4% 16.6 X
At 7.00 x Mult. Of
Equity Returns 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 IRR Investment
Sponsor -178,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 2,787,323 48.1% 15.7 X
Management -50,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 970,865 52.8% 19.4 X
Most Likely
APV Model
APV Method
Debt
Assumptions: Sr
Terminal Perpetuity Growth: 4.0%Assumed perpetual growth Jr
Cost of Capital: Total
Pre-tax cost of debt 10.8%Weighted Average from Jr and Sr Debt
After-tax cost of debt 6.5%Assume 40% fed & state tax
Unlevered cost of equity 13.2%Risk free rate + assumed 8% market premium for equity
Levered cost of equity 25.0%Assumed minimum LBO hurdle
Assumed LT Debt/Total Capitalization 50.0%
Target Wtd Avg Cost of Capital 15.7%
Total APV $778,762 NPV of FCF + NPV of TV + NPV of Tax Shield
Best Case
Business Unit Assumptions
Assumptions Value Reasoning
• Out of the 1 3 stores e xpanded in 2 019, 9 o f them a re b eing p urchased a nd n ot leased. Management p rojects these to
Depreciation Growth 15%
be b etween 1 0-20% d epending o n the location, more stores will continue to b e b ought to h elp d iversify a ssets
• Stores grew from 7 3 to 8 6, showing a n 1 8% g rowth. With a n inspired management team a nd the o perational e xpertise
Store Growth 20% of S un P ower Capital, we b elieve the g rowth in stores trend will o ccur throughout the transaction, a nd in this case
actually e xceed management e xpectations a s the g eographical e xpansion b ecomes a h it in California
• With the e xpansion o f stores, Capital Expenditures h as a d irect g rowth relation. However, with e very n ew store,
Capital Expenditure S ynergy especially in DFRG’s case where they a re creating ‘Hubs,’ o r regions with many stores to h elp reduce costs, a synergy
70%
Adj. will allow these costs to b e stabilized. The large store g rowth will a llow o verhead to b e spread, a nd managers to take
hold o f multiple stores, making costs e ven further d ecline
• With a lean management strategy, the current stores will a lready see a d ramatic d ecrease in costs, reducing n umber o f
SG&A Expenditure S ynergy employees p er store from a median o f 2 8 to 1 9. This is a ccompanied b y the consolidation o f b usboys a nd waiters,
75%
Adj. bartenders with sommeliers, removal o f a ssistant manager. A dditionally, the lean management with managers h olding
titles for multiple restaurants a llows costs to d ecline
• Biggest issue o f DFRG is the h igh COGS with relation to its high q uality p roducts a nd low q uantity p urchases. With the
COGS E xpenditure Synergy common p roducts b etween DFRG a nd the o ther investments b y S un Capital, the q uantity will b e much h igher, a llow the
85%
Adj. price p oint to fall significantly. In this case, d ue to the e xpansion o f stores, the q uantity to p urchase will b e e xtremely
high a llow p rice b reaks to o ccur
• This E BITDA growth is b ased o n the e xpansion o f stores a nd the large synergies created
• Turn o ff-peak h ours into p rofitability including renting the space for p rivate e vents, cooking classes, wine tastings
EBITDA Growth 12.5% • Firm will begin to d iversify b y selling some o f its o wn p roducts (steak sauces, e tc.), a lso u se social media more a nd d o
take o ut to increase margins
• Firm could p otentially a cquire o ther p layers to create synergies, b ut d iversify food p ortfolio to increase multiple
Best Case
Business Units
Historical Projected
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Del Frisco
Number of Stores 14 16 21 26 32 39 47 57 69 83 100
Growth 14% 31% 24% 23% 22% 21% 21% 21% 20% 20%
Sales $176,713 $182,957 $240,131 $297,305 $365,914 $445,958 $537,436 $651,784 $789,002 $949,089 $1,143,481
Growth 4% 31% 24% 23% 22% 21% 21% 21% 20% 20%
Cost of Goods Sold $52,944 $54,559 $60,867 $64,056 $67,012 $69,420 $71,111 $73,305 $75,427 $77,122 $78,980
% of Revenues 30% 30% 25% 22% 18% 16% 13% 11% 10% 8% 7%
Gross Profit $123,769 $128,398 $179,264 $233,249 $298,902 $376,537 $466,325 $578,479 $713,575 $871,968 $1,064,501
Margin 70% 70% 75% 78% 82% 84% 87% 89% 90% 92% 93%
SG&A $76,860 $86,557 $113,606 $105,491 $97,377 $89,008 $80,450 $73,175 $66,435 $59,936 $54,159
% of Revenues 43% 47% 47% 35% 27% 20% 15% 11% 8% 6% 5%
EBITDA $46,909 $41,841 $54,916 $76,491 $105,910 $145,213 $196,875 $268,608 $365,802 $495,026 $670,969
Margin 27% 23% 23% 26% 29% 33% 37% 41% 46% 52% 59%
Depreciation $10,503 $13,786 $15,854 $18,232 $20,966 $24,111 $27,728 $31,887 $36,670 $42,171
% of Revenue 0% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4%
Best Case
Business Units
Historical Projected
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Del Grill
Number of Stores 21 24 28 32 39 47 57 69 83 100 120
Growth 14% 17% 14% 22% 21% 21% 21% 20% 20% 20%
Sales $117,114 $120,989 $141,154 $161,319 $196,607 $236,937 $287,349 $347,843 $418,420 $504,121 $604,945
Growth 3% 17% 14% 22% 21% 21% 21% 20% 20% 20%
Cost of Goods Sold $30,673 $33,071 $32,795 $31,858 $33,003 $33,807 $34,850 $35,859 $36,665 $37,548 $38,299
% of Revenues 26% 27% 23% 20% 17% 14% 12% 10% 9% 7% 6%
Gross Profit $86,441 $87,918 $108,358 $129,460 $163,604 $203,130 $252,499 $311,984 $381,756 $466,573 $566,646
Margin 74% 73% 77% 80% 83% 86% 88% 90% 91% 93% 94%
SG&A $70,978 $73,167 $85,362 $73,167 $66,879 $60,449 $54,982 $49,918 $45,035 $40,694 $36,625
% of Revenues 61% 60% 60% 45% 34% 26% 19% 14% 11% 8% 6%
EBITDA $15,463 $14,751 $17,210 $22,127 $30,338 $41,131 $56,117 $76,423 $103,420 $140,177 $189,239
Margin 13% 12% 12% 14% 15% 17% 20% 22% 25% 28% 31%
Depreciation $8,307 $9,691 $11,145 $12,817 $14,739 $16,950 $19,493 $22,417 $25,779 $29,646
% of Revenue 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5%
Best Case
Business Units
Historical Projected
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Barcelona
Number of Stores 15 18 21 26 32 39 47 57 69 83
Growth 20% 17% 24% 23% 22% 21% 21% 21% 20%
Sales $34,084 $40,901 $47,718 $59,079 $72,713 $88,618 $106,797 $129,519 $156,786 $188,598
Growth 20% 17% 24% 23% 22% 21% 21% 21% 20%
Cost of Goods Sold $9,123 $9,305 $9,228 $9,711 $10,159 $10,525 $10,781 $11,114 $11,435 $11,692
% of Revenues 27% 23% 19% 16% 14% 12% 10% 9% 7% 6%
Gross Profit $24,961 $31,595 $38,490 $49,368 $62,553 $78,094 $96,016 $118,406 $145,351 $176,906
Margin 73% 77% 81% 84% 86% 88% 90% 91% 93% 94%
SG&A $17,336 $20,803 $18,203 $16,903 $15,602 $14,262 $12,890 $11,725 $10,645 $9,603
% of Revenues 51% 51% 38% 29% 21% 16% 12% 9% 7% 5%
EBITDA $7,625 $9,150 $12,009 $16,727 $23,161 $31,756 $43,054 $58,741 $79,995 $108,255
Margin 22% 22% 25% 28% 32% 36% 40% 45% 51% 57%
Depreciation $3,227 $3,872 $4,453 $5,121 $5,889 $6,773 $7,789 $8,957 $10,300 $11,845
% of Revenue 9% 9% 9% 9% 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% 6%
Best Case
Business Units
Historical Projected
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Bartaco
Number of Stores 18 19 20 24 29 35 42 51 62 75
Growth 6% 5% 20% 21% 21% 20% 21% 22% 21%
Sales $40,186 $42,419 $44,651 $53,581 $64,744 $78,139 $93,767 $113,860 $138,418 $167,442
Growth 6% 5% 20% 21% 21% 20% 21% 22% 21%
Cost of Goods Sold $9,232 $8,283 $7,411 $7,559 $7,764 $7,965 $8,124 $8,385 $8,665 $8,910
% of Revenues 23% 20% 17% 14% 12% 10% 9% 7% 6% 5%
Gross Profit $30,954 $34,135 $37,240 $46,022 $56,980 $70,174 $85,643 $105,475 $129,753 $158,532
Margin 77% 80% 83% 86% 88% 90% 91% 93% 94% 95%
SG&A $21,085 $22,256 $17,571 $15,814 $14,331 $12,972 $11,675 $10,633 $9,694 $8,795
% of Revenues 52% 52% 39% 30% 22% 17% 12% 9% 7% 5%
EBITDA $9,869 $10,417 $12,336 $16,654 $22,639 $30,738 $41,497 $56,687 $77,528 $105,507
Margin 25% 25% 28% 31% 35% 39% 44% 50% 56% 63%
Depreciation $3,706 $3,912 $4,499 $5,173 $5,949 $6,842 $7,868 $9,048 $10,406 $11,967
% of Revenue 9% 9% 10% 10% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 7%
Best Case
LBO Model
Historical Projections
INCOME STATEMENT 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Sales $220,893 $252,629 $273,884 $293,827 $378,216 $464,604 $550,993 $675,181 $820,351 $991,543 $1,200,192 $1,450,802 $1,748,415 $2,104,466
Growth 14.4% 8.4% 7.3% 28.7% 22.8% 18.6% 22.5% 21.5% 20.9% 21.0% 20.9% 20.5% 20.4%
Cost of Goods Sold $66,824 $72,260 $76,319 $83,617 $105,985 $111,251 $112,553 $117,286 $121,151 $124,451 $128,070 $131,591 $134,770 $137,881
% of revenues 30.3% 28.6% 27.9% 28.5% 28.0% 23.9% 20.4% 17.4% 14.8% 12.6% 10.7% 9.1% 7.7% 6.6%
Gross Profit $154,069 $180,369 $197,565 $210,210 $272,231 $353,353 $438,439 $557,895 $699,200 $867,092 $1,072,122 $1,319,211 $1,613,645 $1,966,585
Margin 69.7% 71.4% 72.1% 71.5% 72.0% 76.1% 79.6% 82.6% 85.2% 87.4% 89.3% 90.9% 92.3% 93.4%
SG&A $137,583 $165,871 $177,406 $222,128 $294,833 $242,027 $214,432 $196,972 $179,390 $162,666 $147,659 $133,827 $120,970 $109,183
% of Revenues 62.3% 65.7% 64.8% 75.6% 78.0% 52.1% 38.9% 29.2% 21.9% 16.4% 12.3% 9.2% 6.9% 5.2%
EBITDA 45,120 47,291 51,918 62,372 74,086 91,693 122,963 169,629 232,143 315,486 429,581 584,650 792,727 1,073,970
Margin 20.4% 18.7% 19.0% 21.2% 19.6% 19.7% 22.3% 25.1% 28.3% 31.8% 35.8% 40.3% 45.3% 51.0%
Depreciation 9,945 12,825 14,903 17,595 21,713 26,672 30,673 35,274 40,565 46,650 53,648 61,695 70,949 81,592
Management fee 6,688 6,688 6,688 6,688 6,688 6,688 6,688 6,688
Interest Expense
Senior Subordinated 17,216 11,434 8,133 4,013 0 0 0 0
Jr. Sub 15,960 15,960 15,960 15,960 13,517 0 0 0
Total Interest Expense 33,176 27,394 24,093 19,973 13,517 0 0 0
Pre-tax income 52,426 100,273 160,797 242,175 355,729 516,267 715,090 985,691
Taxes 45.0% 23,592 45,123 72,359 108,979 160,078 232,320 321,791 443,561
Net Income 28,834 55,150 88,439 133,196 195,651 283,947 393,300 542,130
Capital Expenditures 47,481 46,150 36,698 39,426 85,838 70,787 81,487 99,596 120,996 146,513 176,967 214,007 258,455 311,133
Best Case
LBO Model
CASH FLOW STATEMENT
Net Income 28,834 55,150 88,439 133,196 195,651 283,947 393,300 542,130
Plus: Depreciation and Amortization 30,673 35,274 40,565 46,650 53,648 61,695 70,949 81,592
Plus: (incr) decr in Wkg. Cap. 86,797 46,178 38,182 29,103 35,470 42,604 50,594 60,529
Less: Capital Expenditures -81,487 -99,596 -120,996 -146,513 -176,967 -214,007 -258,455 -311,133
Less:
Cash Flow Available for Debt Reduction 64,818 37,007 46,190 62,437 107,802 174,239 256,388 373,117
Net Working Capital -31,698 55,099 101,277 139,460 168,562 204,033 246,636 297,231 357,759
% of sales -6.8% 10.0% 15.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0%
Debt:
Senior Subordinated 193,000 128,182 91,175 44,985 0 0 0 0 0
Jr. Sub 114,000 114,000 114,000 114,000 96,548 0 0 0 0
Total Debt 307,000 251,901 205,175 158,985 96,548 0 0 0 0
Interest Rates:
Senior Subordinated 8.92% 8.92% 8.92% 8.92% 8.92% 8.92% 8.92% 8.92%
Jr. Sub 14.0% 14.0% 14.0% 14.0% 14.0% 14.0% 14.0% 14.0%
Senior Debt / EBITDA 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total Debt / EBITDA 2.0 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
At 5.81 x Mult. Of
Equity Returns 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 IRR Investment
Sponsor -178,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 4,627,826 59.3% 26.0 X
Management -50,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,611,940 64.2% 32.2 X
At 6.00 x Mult. Of
Equity Returns 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 IRR Investment
Sponsor -178,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 4,779,167 60.0% 26.8 X
Management -50,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,664,654 65.0% 33.3 X
At 7.00 x Mult. Of
Equity Returns 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 IRR Investment
Sponsor -178,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 5,575,694 63.6% 31.3 X
Management -50,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,942,096 68.7% 38.8 X
Best Case
APV Model
APV Method
Debt
Assumptions: Sr
Terminal Perpetuity Growth: 4.0%Assumed perpetual growth Jr
Cost of Capital: Total
Pre-tax cost of debt 10.8%Weighted Average from Jr and Sr Debt
After-tax cost of debt 6.5%Assume 40% fed & state tax
Unlevered cost of equity 13.2%Risk free rate + assumed 8% market premium for equity
Levered cost of equity 25.0%Assumed minimum LBO hurdle
Assumed LT Debt/Total Capitalization 50.0%
Target Wtd Avg Cost of Capital 15.7%
Total APV $2,512,525 NPV of FCF + NPV of TV + NPV of Tax Shield
Worst Case
Business Unit Assumptions
Assumptions Value Reasoning
• Due to the minimal expansion, d epreciation g rowth o nly minutely increases
Depreciation Growth 5%
• Stores a lso continued to b e rented versus b eing p urchased d ue to the limited cash
• Growth o f stores minimal, as the costs to e xpand b ecome h igher than e xpected
Store Growth 5%
• Stores o nly marginally increase in their locations, creating a ‘hub’ o nly in Texas
• Capital e xpenditures become a ratio o f the increase in the a mount o f the stores. Unfortunately, d ue to the minimal
Capital Expenditure S ynergy
95% store e xpansion, the capital e xpenditure g ains a re minimal
Adj.
• Lean Management structure d oes n ot seem to work, inefficiencies o ccur
• The e mployee’s d o n ot seem to take o n the idea o f d oing multiple job roles, a nd thus, the firm must g o b ack to the
SG&A Expenditure S ynergy
100% highly specialized o rganizational structure
Adj.
• New management team d oes not seem to h ave the e xpertize to h ave the firm g row
• Since there is o nly minute e xpansion into Texas, there is a slight e conomies o f scale increase o n p urchasing goods
COGS E xpenditure Synergy • Firm does create synergies with the S un Capital P artners p ortfolio companies, a nd a s a result, the COGS
95%
Adj. becomes the same a s h istorical d ata
Worst Case
Business Units
Historical Projected
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Del Frisco
Number of Stores 14 16 21 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40
Growth 14% 31% 24% 8% 7% 7% 6% 6% 6% 5%
Sales $176,713 $182,957 $240,131 $297,305 $320,175 $343,044 $365,914 $388,784 $411,653 $434,523 $457,393
Growth 4% 31% 24% 8% 7% 7% 6% 6% 6% 5%
Cost of Goods Sold $52,944 $54,559 $68,028 $80,014 $81,861 $83,322 $84,433 $85,225 $85,726 $85,964 $85,964
% of Revenues 30% 30% 28% 27% 26% 24% 23% 22% 21% 20% 19%
Gross Profit $123,769 $128,398 $172,103 $217,291 $238,314 $259,722 $281,481 $303,559 $325,927 $348,558 $371,428
Margin 70% 70% 72% 73% 74% 76% 77% 78% 79% 80% 81%
SG&A $76,860 $86,557 $113,606 $140,655 $151,475 $162,294 $173,114 $183,934 $194,753 $205,573 $216,393
% of Revenues 43% 47% 47% 47% 47% 47% 47% 47% 47% 47% 47%
EBITDA $46,909 $41,841 $54,916 $67,992 $73,222 $78,452 $83,682 $88,912 $94,142 $99,372 $104,603
Margin 27% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23%
Depreciation $10,503 $13,786 $14,475 $15,199 $15,959 $16,757 $17,594 $18,474 $19,398 $20,368
% of Revenue 0% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4%
Worst Case
Business Units
Historical Projected
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Del Grill
Number of Stores 21 24 28 32 34 36 38 40 42 45 48
Growth 14% 17% 14% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 7% 7%
Sales $117,114 $120,989 $141,154 $161,319 $171,401 $181,484 $191,566 $201,648 $211,731 $226,854 $241,978
Growth 3% 17% 14% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 7% 7%
Cost of Goods Sold $30,673 $33,071 $36,654 $39,795 $40,169 $40,405 $40,517 $40,517 $40,416 $41,137 $41,686
% of Revenues 26% 27% 26% 25% 23% 22% 21% 20% 19% 18% 17%
Gross Profit $86,441 $87,918 $104,500 $121,523 $131,233 $141,079 $151,049 $161,131 $171,315 $185,717 $200,292
Margin 74% 73% 74% 75% 77% 78% 79% 80% 81% 82% 83%
SG&A $70,978 $73,167 $85,362 $97,556 $103,653 $109,751 $115,848 $121,945 $128,042 $137,188 $146,334
% of Revenues 61% 60% 60% 60% 60% 60% 60% 60% 60% 60% 60%
EBITDA $15,463 $14,751 $17,210 $19,668 $20,897 $22,127 $23,356 $24,585 $25,814 $27,658 $29,502
Margin 13% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12%
Depreciation $8,307 $9,691 $10,176 $10,685 $11,219 $11,780 $12,369 $12,987 $13,637 $14,319
% of Revenue 7% 7% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6%
Worst Case
Business Units
Historical Projected
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Barcelona
Number of Stores 15 18 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35
Growth 20% 17% 10% 9% 8% 7% 7% 6% 6%
Sales $34,084 $40,901 $47,718 $52,262 $56,807 $61,351 $65,896 $70,440 $74,985 $79,529
Growth 20% 17% 10% 9% 8% 7% 7% 6% 6%
Cost of Goods Sold $9,123 $10,400 $11,527 $11,993 $12,385 $12,707 $12,965 $13,167 $13,315 $13,416
% of Revenues 27% 25% 24% 23% 22% 21% 20% 19% 18% 17%
Gross Profit $24,961 $30,501 $36,191 $40,269 $44,422 $48,645 $52,930 $57,274 $61,670 $66,113
Margin 73% 75% 76% 77% 78% 79% 80% 81% 82% 83%
SG&A $17,336 $20,803 $24,270 $26,582 $28,893 $31,205 $33,516 $35,828 $38,139 $40,451
% of Revenues 51% 51% 51% 51% 51% 51% 51% 51% 51% 51%
EBITDA $7,625 $9,150 $10,675 $11,692 $12,708 $13,725 $14,742 $15,758 $16,775 $17,792
Margin 22% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22%
Depreciation $3,227 $3,872 $4,066 $4,269 $4,483 $4,707 $4,942 $5,189 $5,449 $5,721
% of Revenue 9% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7%
Worst Case
Business Units
Historical Projected
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Bartaco
Number of Stores 18 19 20 21 23 25 27 29 31 33
Growth 6% 5% 5% 10% 9% 8% 7% 7% 6%
Sales $40,186 $42,419 $44,651 $46,884 $51,349 $55,814 $60,279 $64,744 $69,209 $73,674
Growth 6% 5% 5% 10% 9% 8% 7% 7% 6%
Cost of Goods Sold $9,232 $9,258 $9,258 $9,235 $9,608 $9,922 $10,180 $10,387 $10,548 $10,667
% of Revenues 23% 22% 21% 20% 19% 18% 17% 16% 15% 14%
Gross Profit $30,954 $33,161 $35,393 $37,649 $41,741 $45,892 $50,099 $54,357 $58,661 $63,007
Margin 77% 78% 79% 80% 81% 82% 83% 84% 85% 86%
SG&A $21,085 $22,256 $23,428 $24,599 $26,942 $29,285 $31,628 $33,970 $36,313 $38,656
% of Revenues 52% 52% 52% 52% 52% 52% 52% 52% 52% 52%
EBITDA $9,869 $10,417 $10,966 $11,514 $12,610 $13,707 $14,804 $15,900 $16,997 $18,093
Margin 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25%
Depreciation $3,706 $3,912 $4,107 $4,313 $4,528 $4,755 $4,993 $5,242 $5,504 $5,780
% of Revenue 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 8%
Worst Case
LBO Model
Historical Projections
INCOME STATEMENT 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Sales $220,893 $252,629 $273,884 $293,827 $378,216 $464,604 $550,993 $590,722 $632,683 $674,645 $716,607 $758,568 $805,571 $852,574
Growth 14.4% 8.4% 7.3% 28.7% 22.8% 18.6% 7.2% 7.1% 6.6% 6.2% 5.9% 6.2% 5.8%
Cost of Goods Sold $66,824 $72,260 $76,319 $83,617 $105,985 $124,340 $140,594 $143,257 $145,720 $147,579 $148,887 $149,696 $150,965 $151,734
% of revenues 30.3% 28.6% 27.9% 28.5% 28.0% 26.8% 25.5% 24.3% 23.0% 21.9% 20.8% 19.7% 18.7% 17.8%
Gross Profit $154,069 $180,369 $197,565 $210,210 $272,231 $340,264 $410,398 $447,464 $486,963 $527,066 $567,720 $608,873 $654,606 $700,840
Margin 69.7% 71.4% 72.1% 71.5% 72.0% 73.2% 74.5% 75.7% 77.0% 78.1% 79.2% 80.3% 81.3% 82.2%
SG&A $137,583 $165,871 $177,406 $222,128 $294,833 $242,027 $285,909 $306,309 $327,880 $349,451 $371,022 $392,594 $417,213 $441,833
% of Revenues 62.3% 65.7% 64.8% 75.6% 78.0% 52.1% 51.9% 51.9% 51.8% 51.8% 51.8% 51.8% 51.8% 51.8%
EBITDA 45,120 47,291 51,918 62,372 74,086 91,693 109,300 117,325 125,897 134,470 143,042 151,615 160,802 169,989
Margin 20.4% 18.7% 19.0% 21.2% 19.6% 19.7% 19.8% 19.9% 19.9% 19.9% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 19.9%
Depreciation 9,945 12,825 14,903 17,595 21,713 26,672 28,006 29,406 30,877 32,421 34,042 35,744 37,531 39,407
Management fee 6,688 6,688 6,688 6,688 6,688 6,688 6,688 6,688
Interest Expense
Senior Subordinated 17,216 14,807 14,807 14,807 14,807 14,807 14,807 14,807
Jr. Sub 15,960 15,960 15,960 15,960 15,960 15,960 15,960 15,960
Total Interest Expense 33,176 30,767 30,767 30,767 30,767 30,767 30,767 30,767
Pre-tax income 41,431 50,463 57,566 64,594 71,546 78,417 85,817 93,127
Taxes 45.0% 18,644 22,709 25,905 29,068 32,196 35,287 38,617 41,907
Net Income 22,787 27,755 31,661 35,527 39,350 43,129 47,199 51,220
Capital Expenditures 47,481 46,150 36,698 39,426 85,838 96,068 110,590 118,409 127,346 136,283 145,219 154,156 164,209 174,263
Worst Case
LBO Model
CASH FLOW STATEMENT
Net Income 22,787 27,755 31,661 35,527 39,350 43,129 47,199 51,220
Plus: Depreciation and Amortization 28,006 29,406 30,877 32,421 34,042 35,744 37,531 39,407
Plus: (incr) decr in Wkg. Cap. 86,797 33,509 18,948 7,133 7,133 7,133 7,990 7,990
Less: Capital Expenditures -110,590 -118,409 -127,346 -136,283 -145,219 -154,156 -164,209 -174,263
Less:
Cash Flow Available for Debt Reduction 27,000 -27,739 -45,860 -61,202 -64,694 -68,149 -71,489 -75,645
Net Working Capital -31,698 55,099 88,608 107,556 114,690 121,823 128,957 136,947 144,938
% of sales -6.8% 10.0% 15.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0%
Debt:
Senior Subordinated 193,000 166,000 166,000 166,000 166,000 166,000 166,000 166,000 166,000
Jr. Sub 114,000 114,000 114,000 114,000 114,000 114,000 114,000 114,000 114,000
Total Debt 307,000 251,901 280,000 280,000 280,000 280,000 280,000 280,000 280,000
Interest Rates:
Senior Subordinated 8.92% 8.92% 8.92% 8.92% 8.92% 8.92% 8.92% 8.92%
Jr. Sub 14.0% 14.0% 14.0% 14.0% 14.0% 14.0% 14.0% 14.0%
Senior Debt / EBITDA 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 - -
Total Debt / EBITDA 2.3 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.7 -
At 5.81 x Mult. Of
Equity Returns 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 IRR Investment
Sponsor -178,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 524,832 16.7% 2.9 X
Management -50,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 182,807 20.3% 3.7 X
At 6.00 x Mult. Of
Equity Returns 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 IRR Investment
Sponsor -178,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 548,786 17.5% 3.1 X
Management -50,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 191,150 21.1% 3.8 X
At 7.00 x Mult. Of
Equity Returns 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 IRR Investment
Sponsor -178,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 674,862 21.0% 3.8 X
Management -50,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 235,064 24.7% 4.7 X
Worst Case
APV Model
APV Method
Debt
Assumptions: Sr
Terminal Perpetuity Growth: 4.0%Assumed perpetual growth Jr
Cost of Capital: Total
Pre-tax cost of debt 10.8%Weighted Average from Jr and Sr Debt
After-tax cost of debt 6.5%Assume 40% fed & state tax
Unlevered cost of equity 13.2%Risk free rate + assumed 8% market premium for equity
Levered cost of equity 25.0%Assumed minimum LBO hurdle
Assumed LT Debt/Total Capitalization 50.0%
Target Wtd Avg Cost of Capital 15.7%
Total APV $(207,253) NPV of FCF + NPV of TV + NPV of Tax Shield
Liquidation Model
Assumptions Most Best Worst
Year Median
• Firm would e xit in 2 027 Likely Case Case
• Due to financial h ardship, there would b e minimal d isposable income for
people to spend o n fine d ining 2016 195,992 195,992 195,992 195,992
• DRFG would sell the firms a ssets, o r the b uildings a nd P P&E to receive
the returns it is seeking 2017 153,316 153,316 153,316 153,316
• Firm would cease to e xist a fter a ll assets a re sold
• All o f these locations retain value a nd that they a re p urchased versus 2018 287,803 287,803 287,803 287,803
being leased
2019 427,150 427,150 427,150 427,150
Best Case Most Likely Case Worst Case 2020 519,710 516,218 451,581 516,218
• Firm would • The firm has • The firm will 2021 701,091 619,721 467,192 619,721
blossom till done well in have a difficult
2027, but due to growth, but time to exist, 2022 886,410 756,810 498,105 756,810
the financial financial and selling its
times the firm hardship has assets is most 2023 903,917 919,274 515,219 903,917
would need to made the firm sure way of
be sold difficult to getting capital 2024 955,129 1,204,719 567,192 955,129
• IRR: 777% operate and be bac from the
• MOI: 8.77X sustainable investment 2025 997,612 1,597,102 613,435 997,612
• IRR: 520% • IRR: 264%
• MOI: 6.2X • MOI: 3.64X 2026 1,100,014 1,680,180 687,748 1,100,014
5.81X 6X 7X 5.81X 6X 7X
Case Case
Multiple Multiple Multiple Multiple Multiple Multiple
Most Most
44.2% 44.8% 48.1% 12.9X 13.4X 15.7X
Likely Likely
(48.7%) (49.4%) (52.8%) (16.0X) (16.6X) (19.4X)
Case Case
Best 59.3% 60.0% 63.6%
Case (64.2%) (65.0%) (68.7%) Best 26.0X 26.8X 31.3X
Case (32.2X) (33.3X) (38.8X)
Worst 16.7% 17.5% 21.0%
Case (20.3%) (21.1%) (24.7%) Worst 2.9X 3.1X 3.8X
Case (3.7X) (3.8X) (4.7X)
40.07% 40.77% 44.23% 13.93X 14.43X 16.93X
Average Average
(44.4%) (45.22%) (48.73%) (17.3X) (17.9X) (20.97X)
Exit Multiple Analysis
Due to the strength of Based on hitting Firm had expansion, but
Most Likely
Best Case
Worst Case
the organization hitting management projections has had minimal ability
major milestones and having expansion to grow in terms of
including location geographically with EBITDA due to their
growth, expanded some reduction of costs, inability to reach price
product line and trading at the same quotas and achieve
decreasing costs multiple is most likely long-term synergy status
through synergies, the Potential Exit Multiple Potential Exit Multiple
multiple could be
• Minimum of purchase multiple • Firm will trade at the same
assumed and expanded (5.81X), with a small change purchase multiple (5.81X), as
Potential Exit Multiple that the multiple increases to the firm grew in revenue, but
6X, as the holding period for relatively had the same
• Minimum of purchase multiple the firm could change market EBITDA after an 8 year
(5.81X), likely to increase perceptions and buyout rates holding period
~5%-15% to between 6X and
7X EBITDA
Pricing
Things to Consider
Price Floor Target Price • Control Premium has not been taken into
account, which has ranged from 13.5% to
• Purchase at current • Purchasing at 35% between 2015 and 2018 (Duff &
Phelps)
stock price standard rates - see
• Analysis does not include other
($220.04MM) analysis ($535MM) acquisitions, which c ould result in drastic
changes in FCF and EBITDA
• Analysis also does not include the
potential franchising option, which
Auction Price Max Price solely increases FCF while not
increasing any costs
• Trade at the US PE • Paying 2019 EBITDA • Large risk associated with DFRG is the
relation it has to the performance of the
buyout multiple of at the 11.6X multiple financial markets. If disposable income
11.6X (335.25MM) ($682.31MM) decreases, the firm c ould take a drastic
hit
• Vice v ersa, if financial markets boom,
then the c ompany c an further prosper
Projected Pricing Versus Returns
LBO APV Liquidation
Most Best Worst Most Best Worst Most Best Worst
Likely Case Case Likely Case Case Likely Case Case
Price
220.04 220.04 335.25 220.04 220.04 335.25 220.04 220.04 335.25
Floor
Max
682.31 682.31 682.31 682.31 682.31 682.31 682.31 682.31 682.31
Price
Target
535 535 535 535 535 535 535 535 535
Price
Auction
335.25 220.04 682.31 335.25 220.04 682.31 335.25 220.04 682.31
Price
IRR 40.07% 63.6% 16.7% 41.51% 87.2% (4.96%) 520% 777% 264%
MOI 13.93X 31.3X 2.9X 15.16X 23.79X -1.17X 6.2X 8.77X 3.64
Conclusion
Industry
• Considered in maturity stage b ut g rowing
• Highly competitive
• Based o n financial market trends
• Returns look strong, a lthough h olding p eriod is longer than u sual
LBO Analysis • Financial markets risk factor n ot a voidable a nd therefore make p otentially d ifficult
investment
• Sun Capital P artners strategic d ecisions a nd synergies make d eal worth while
Conclusion
• LBO is g ood a t the right p rice
• Operational e xcellence must o ccur in o rder for strong returns
• Unavoidable risks via financial markets makes investment slightly risk