For sustainable energy.

World Energy Scenarios

Composing energy futures to 2050
Project Partner Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI), Switzerland

WORLD ENERGY COUNCIL

CONSEIL MONDIAL DE L’ÉNERGIE
Officers of the World Energy Council

Pierre Gadonneix Abubakar Sambo

Chairman Vice Chair
Africa
Marie-Jose Nadeau
Chair-elect Brian A. Statham
Chair
Younghoon David Kim
Studies Committee
Co-chair elect
José Antonio Vargas Lleras
Leonhard Birnbaum
Vice Chair
Vice Chair
Latin America/Caribbean
Europe
Graham Ward, CBE
Hwan-eik Cho
Vice Chair
Vice Chair
Finance
2013 Congress, Daegu
Wu Xinxiong
Arup Roy Choudhury
Vice Chair
Vice Chair
Asia
Asia Pacific/South Asia
Taha M. Zatari
José da Costa Carvalho Neto
Vice Chair
Chair
Special Responsibility
Programme Committee
Gulf States & Middle East
Jean-Marie Dauger
Christoph Frei
Chair
Secretary General
Communications &
Outreach Committee

Kevin Meyers
Vice Chair
North America
World Energy Scenarios
World Energy Council’s unique approach
to composing energy futures to 2050

The WEC’s approach

Assessing the energy trilemma
Scenarios are alternative views of the future
These scenarios are designed to help a
which can be used to explore the implications of
range of stakeholders address the ‘energy
different sets of assumptions and to determine
trilemma’ of achieving environmental
the degree of robustness of possible future
sustainability, energy security, and
developments. While most widely known
energy equity and hence putting forward
scenarios are normative, the WEC has adopted
different policy options.
a different, exploratory approach. ‘Normative’
in this context means that the scenarios are
Clearly, each policy option has some
being used to drive the world towards a specific
cost associated with it. The cost of one
objective such as a particular atmospheric CO2
scenario versus the other must not only be
level. In contrast, the WEC with its exploratory
considered in terms of necessary capital
scenarios Jazz and Symphony, attempts to
investments and the impact on and of gross
provide decision makers with a neutral
domestic product (GDP) growth; the overall
fact-based tool that they will be able to use to
environmental benefits and avoided climate
measure the potential impact of their choices
change adaptation costs also need to be
in the future.
taken into account. This means that one
scenario is not necessarily better than the
Rather than telling policymakers and senior
other and should not be judged as such.
energy leaders what to do, in order to achieve
Instead, a wider view needs to be adopted
a specific policy goal, the WEC’s World Energy
when assessing the overall implications of
Scenarios to 2050 will allow them to test the
each of the scenarios.
key assumptions that they decide to make to
shape the energy of tomorrow. Investors can
use this tool to assess which are likely to be the
most dynamic areas and real game-changers of
tomorrow.

These scenarios are therefore likely to change

the way energy decision makers consider the
choices they make in understanding the real
impact of their actions in the long term.

This approach can only be done successfully by

a network like the WEC’s with its impartial and
inclusive membership structure. Over 60 experts
from more than 28 countries have contributed
ENERGY ENVIRONMENTAL
to the WEC’s scenario building process over a EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY
period of three years.

World Energy Council 2013 1

 World Energy Scenarios 10 key messages

1 Energy system complexity will increase by 2050.

2 Energy efficiency is crucial in dealing with demand outstripping supply.

3 The energy mix in 2050 will mainly be fossil based.

Regional priorities differ: there is no ‘one-size-fits-all’ solution to the

4 energy trilemma.

The global economy will be challenged to meet the 450ppm target

5 without unacceptable carbon prices.

A low-carbon future is not only linked to renewables: carbon capture,

6 utilisation and storage (CC(U)S) is important and consumer behaviour
needs changing.

CC(U)S technology, solar energy and energy storage are the key
7 uncertainties up to 2050.

8 Balancing the energy trilemma means making difficult choices.

Functioning energy markets require investments and regional integration

9 to deliver benefits to all consumers.

10 Energy policy should ensure that energy and carbon markets deliver.

2 World Energy Scenarios

Composing Energy
Futures to 2050
The WEC has built two scenarios typified by
characteristics, which, each from their own
perspective, may comprehensively describe
large parts of the world in 2050. In this scenario
exercise, the elements of the two scenarios are
generalised as being applicable to the (albeit
JAZZ
As an energy scenario, Jazz has a focus on
energy equity with priority given to achieving
individual access and affordability of energy
through economic growth.
Jazz is a style of music, characterised by
a strong but flexible rhythmic structure
with solo and ensemble improvisations on
basic tunes and chord patterns. In Jazz,
musicians have freedom to take the lead
and improvise; others in the band will
often follow.
imaginary) whole world: the more consumer-
driven Jazz scenario and the more voter-driven
Symphony scenario. While the scenarios are
‘music based’, they are completely different
in nature.
SYMPHONY
As an energy scenario, Symphony has
a focus on achieving environmental
sustainability through internationally
coordinated policies and practices.
A Symphony is a complex piece of music
with a fixed structure composed to be
played by a symphony orchestra. The
orchestra will have a conductor and 80 or so
orchestra members will each have a specific
role to play and score to follow.
World Energy Council 2013 3
 The WEC’s scenarios at
a glance
The stories behind Jazz and Symphony

JAZZ SYMPHONY JAZZ SYMPHONY

World where there World where there is a In the absence of Carbon market
is a consumer focus voter consensus on driving international agreed is top down
on achieving energy environmental sustainability commitments carbon based on an
access, affordability, and and energy security through market grows international
quality of supply with corresponding practices more slowly from agreement, with
the use of best available and policies. bottom up based on commitments
energy sources. regional, national and allocations.
and local initiatives.

Higher
GDP growth
Lower GDP
growth

Free-trade
strategies lead to Nationalistic
increased exports. strategies result in
reduced exports/ Due to faster convergence Due to less convergence,
imports. across countries, higher more environmental
international competition, and constraints and a more
low environmental constraints. capital-intensive growth
pathway.

Renewable and Certain types of

low-carbon energy renewable and
grows in line with low-carbon energy
market selection. actively promoted by
governments.

Main players are  Main players are

multi-national governments, public sector
companies, banks, and private companies,
venture capitalists, NGOs, and environmentally-
Energy sources Selected energy and price-conscious minded voters.
compete on sources are consumers.
basis of price subsidised and
and availability. incentivised by
governments. Technologies are chosen Governments pick
in competitive markets. technology winners.

4 World Energy Scenarios

Source: World Energy Council (2013)
The WEC’s scenarios findings
Composing energy futures

Energy landscape in 2050
The energy landscape we expect to see in
2050 will be quite different from how it looks
today. Meeting future energy demand will be
a key challenge. The world’s population will
increase from approximately 7 billion in 2013 to
approximately 8.7 billion in the Jazz scenario
and approximately 9.4 billion in the Symphony
scenario in 2050, which is equal to a 26%
increase (36% respectively). The GDP per capita
will also increase from slightly more than 9,000
US$2010 on average globally (US$2010 MER)
in 2010 to approximately 23,000 US$2010 in
Jazz and about 18,000 US$2010 in Symphony in
2050. This represents an increase by 153% and
100%, respectively. Mobility will also increase,
with car ownership in terms of cars per 1000
people increasing from 124 in 2010 to 244 in
2050 in Jazz and 193 in Symphony. This equates
to an increase by 98% and 57% respectively.

The WEC’s view on global economic growth up to 2050

Source: World Energy Council (2013)

GDP growth, compound annual growth rate (CAGR) % market exchange rate (MER) (%PPP)

    1990–2000 2000–2010 2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040 2040–2050

3.2 3.1 2.9 2.6

JAZZ  
2.9 2.8 (3.9) (3.8) (3.5) (3.1)
(3.2) (3.5) 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.2
SYMPHONY  
(3.3) (3.2) (3.0) (2.7)

‘This is a time of
unprecedented
uncertainty for the
energy sector. Energy
demand will continue to
increase. The pressure
and challenge to develop
and transform the energy
system is immense.’
World Energy Council 2013 5
 What Jazz and Symphony can offer

Many key messages arise from the Jazz and
Symphony scenarios. One of these is that
more international cooperation, including
internationally harmonised politics and trust in
market mechanisms, is essential for achieving
environmental goals, energy security and
energy equity. Jazz and Symphony can
contribute towards enhancing the debate
on how these goals can best be achieved,
taking into account a wide range of policy
options. The WEC’s World Energy Scenarios
to 2050 will help strengthen the debate
on how collaboration among all relevant
stakeholders in the energy field can effectively
be implemented.

‘Neither scenario relies

on a “magic wand” to
radically change the future.
Rather, both scenarios are
exploratory and show the
multiplicity of possible
choices regarding the
energy trilemma.’
6 World Energy Scenarios
 From stories to figures
The WEC’s scenario story quantification
assumptions
The WEC’s scenario stories were quantified into the following
figures which acted as constraints in the two models.

JAZZ SYMPHONY JAZZ SYMPHONY

2050 2050 2050 2050

GDP growth
(CAGR, PPP) Climate policy
3.54% 3.06%

Limited Stronger
(and more diverse) (with global convergance)

Resources
Population (billion)

Better access to More expensive

8.7 9.3 unconventionals
unconventional
resources (esp. gas) (less competition,
regulation, water)
Technology innovation

Technology support

Further development of Focused R&D programmes,

CCGT, decentralised esp. CC(U)S demonstration,
power (SPV), wind, gas nuclear, solar photo voltaic
vehicles, EVs (SPV)

Efficiency

Limited; energy
choice based on Government support
free markets – only for nuclear, large
limited nuclear, hydro, CC(U)S and Increasing more
Increasing
CC(U)S, large hydro renewables strongly

Source: World Energy Council (2013)

World Energy Council 2013 7
 Key message

Energy system complexity will increase by 2050.

Total primary energy supply

The WEC estimates that total primary energy supply
(equal to consumption) will increase globally from 546 EJ
(152 PWh) in 2010 to 879 EJ (144 PWh) in the Jazz scenario
and 696 EJ (193 PWh) in the Symphony scenario in 2050.
This corresponds to an increase of 61% in Jazz and 27%
in Symphony. Just to compare: from 1990 to 2010 – which
is roughly half the time span covered in this scenario
study – total global primary energy consumption rose by
approximately 45%. It is expected that global primary
energy consumption will continue to rise, but at a much
lower rate than in previous decades. Meeting both global
and regional energy demand will be a challenge. There is
no one global solution to the energy supply issue. Instead,
each of the individual parts of the challenge must be worked
out to reach the global goal of sustainable, affordable and
secure energy supply for all.

+61% +27%
in the Jazz scenario in the Symphony
in 2050 scenario in 2050

Estimated increase globally of total primary

energy supply (equal to consumption)

8 World Energy Scenarios

Share of net imports in primary energy supply (%)
(for aggregated world regions)

21.5 20.5 19.2

in 2010 Jazz 2050 Symphony 2050

Source: World Energy Council

Note: The share of net imports in primary energy supply is defined as the sum of net imports of those
aggregated world regions which are net importers, divided by the total global primary energy supply.

Total primary energy supply by region (Units: EJ/y)

2010 Jazz 2050 Symphony 2050

North America Europe South and Central Asia

116 130 105 121 135 114 43 136 96

145 211 164

East Asia
MENA

37 79 67

LAC

29 67 51 Africa

23 50 46 Southeast Asia and Pacific

South and Central Asia and East 32 71 54

Asia are the centres of future growth,
in particular China and India.
Other regions grow too but from
a lower base.

World Energy Council 2013 9

 Key message

Energy efficiency is crucial in dealing with

demand outstripping supply.

Energy efficiency
Energy efficiency will increase significantly in both
scenarios: primary energy intensity as measured in energy
use per unit of GDP created will decrease by 50% and 53%
in Jazz and Symphony respectively by 2050. Hence when
comparing primary energy consumption to GDP produced,
only half the amount of energy is needed until 2050 to
produce the same output. This is true for both scenarios
although primary energy consumption is higher in 2050 in
the Jazz scenario than it is in the Symphony scenario. WEC
World Energy Scenarios to 2050 show that energy efficiency
and energy conservation are absolutely crucial in dealing
with demand outstripping supply – both require a change
in consumer priorities and have cost implications across
industries – and hence capital is required to finance energy-
efficiency measures in terms of an initial investment before it
can pay off.

Energy intensity will change by

-50% -53%
in the Jazz scenario in the Symphony scenario
by 2050 by 2050

10 World Energy Scenarios

Primary energy intensity (MJ/USD2010 MER)

8.6
4.4 4.1

in 2010 Jazz 2050 Symphony 2050

Source: World Energy Council (2013)

World Energy Council 2013 11

 Key message

The energy mix in 2050 will mainly be fossil

based.

Future primary energy mix

The future primary energy mix in 2050 shows that
growth rates will be highest for renewable energy sources.
In absolute terms, fossil fuels (coal, oil, gas) will remain
dominant, up to and including 2050. The share of fossil fuels
will be 77% in the Jazz scenario and 59% in the Symphony
scenario – compared to 79% in 2010. The share of
renewable energy sources will increase from around
15% in 2010 to almost 20% in Jazz in 2050 and almost
30% in Symphony in 2050. Nuclear energy will contribute
approximately 4% of total primary energy supply in Jazz
in 2050 and 11% in Symphony globally – compared to
6% in 2010.

Fossil fuels will remain dominant up to 2050 (share of fossil fuels)

79% 77%
59%

in 2010 Jazz 2050 Symphony 2050

12 World Energy Scenarios

Total Primary Energy
Supply (Units: EJ/y)
Source: World Energy Council (2013)
879 In the Jazz scenario future
development will depend
on fossil fuels whereas in
Symphony development will
be fuelled by renewables.

696

546

in 2010 Jazz 2050 Symphony 2050

World Energy Council 2013 13

 Global electricity generation will increase
between 123% and 150% by 2050.

Global electricity generation

Global electricity generation will increase between
now and 2050: In 2010, global electricity production
was 21.5 billion MWh globally. In Jazz, this is expected
to increase by 150% to 53.6 billion MWh by 2050.
In Symphony, the increase is about 123% to 47.9 billion
MWh by 2050. Simply due to the sheer increase in electricity
production that is needed to meet future demand, the future
electricity generation mix will be subject to tremendous
changes up to 2050.

Global electricity generation (billion MWh)

Source: World Energy Council

53.6

47.9

21.5

in 2010 Jazz 2050 Symphony 2050

14 World Energy Scenarios

 Electricity production by fuel type
Geothermal Solar Wind Biomass (with CCS) Biomass

Hydro Hydrogen Nuclear Gas Gas (with CCS)

Oil Coal Coal (with CCS)

JAZZ SYMPHONY
60,000

50,000
Technologies
that will have the
biggest impact are
40,000 Solar and CCS.
TWh/y

30,000 Technologies that will have

the biggest impact are highly
efficient CCGT plants and
coal-fired power plants.
20,000

10,000

0
2010 2050 2050

World Energy Council 2013 15

 Investment needs in electricity generation
will be between $19 trillion and $26 trillion
worldwide up to 2050.

Future investment needs

in electricity generation
Huge investment in electricity generation is needed to
meet future electricity demand. The WEC estimates that
total investment needed will range from US$19 trillion in
Jazz to US$26 trillion in Symphony (in 2010 terms) – in
terms of cumulative investment in electricity generation in
both scenarios (2010–2050, undiscounted). Depending on
each scenario, a share of 46% in Jazz and almost 70% in
Symphony of this is to be invested in renewable electricity
generation. Major investment requirements are in solar PV,
hydro and wind electricity generation capacity. The WEC’s
work clearly highlights that the availability of funds for
investment is one of the key clusters in scenario building
terms that will shape the energy landscape until 2050.

Share of investment in renewable electricity generation

46%
in the Jazz scenario
70%
in the Symphony scenario
by 2050 by 2050

16 World Energy Scenarios

Investment requirements in electricity JAZZ 2050 SYMPHONY 2050
generation (2010 –2050, billion
US$2010, undiscounted)
Source: World Energy Council (2013)

$19,310 $25,720

TOTAL

$6,950

$1,620 $1,660
$200
$90 $90

Coal (with CC(U)S) Coal Oil

$2,050 $1,980 $2,020

$490 $1,010
$140

Gas (with CC(U)S) Gas Nuclear

$9,660
$3,520
$3,280
$2,720 $2,950
$1,950

Wind Solar Hydropower

$260 $240 $720 $520

$440
$340 $100
CO2 $30

Biomass Biomass Geothermal Hydrogen

(with CC(U)S)

World Energy Council 2013 17

 The overall degree of energy access will
increase. Africa faces great challenges to
increase access to electricity.

Access to energy
The degree of electrification measured in terms of the share
of electric energy on the final energy mix, increases up
to 2050 significantly. In Jazz, the degree of electrification
will be almost 30% in 2050, in Symphony this will even be
slightly more than 30% in 2050 – as compared to 17% in
2010.

Electricity consumption per capita increases globally by

111% in Jazz and 78% in Symphony in 2050.

Electricity access, measured as the share of population

connected to the electricity grid will increase in both
scenarios: energy access will hence improve.1 While in
2010, 1.267 billion people were without access to electricity
globally, this reduces to 319 million in Jazz and 530 million
in the Symphony scenario in 2050.

Electrification (in terms of the share of

electricity in final energy consumption) (%)

32
27
17

in 2010 Jazz 2050 Symphony 2050

Source: World Energy Council (2013)

1 The estimate of 1.267 billion people without access to electricity for 2010 differs from that of the World Bank of 1.2 billion people due to
‘differences in a relatively small number of countries, including Pakistan, Indonesia, South Africa, Thailand, and Gabon, where the International
Energy Agency (IEA) uses government data (which typically report more people without access) while the World Bank uses estimates derived
from various types of surveys’. (World Bank, 2013).

18 World Energy Scenarios

 1,267
Population without access to electricity (in millions)
Source: IEA 2000, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 (historical data)
Source: World Energy Council (2013)

2010 JAZZ 2050 SYMPHONY 2050

589
530
471
402
319
266

135
102
26 29 20 45 22
8 0 0 0 0 0 0
World
Sub-Saharan Africa
Latin America
& The Caribbean

Middle East &

North Africa

East Asia
Southeast Asia
& Pacific

South & Central Asia

Access to electricity will

improve all over the world.
Sub-Saharan Africa will
struggle having the least.

World Energy Council 2013 19

 Key message

Regional priorities differ: there is no ‘one-size-

fits-all’ solution to the energy trilemma.

Regional developments
Future economic growth shifts from developed countries to
developing and transition economies, in particular in Asia.
Of all the eight regions considered in this scenario study,
Asia will be characterised by highest economic growth both
in relative and absolute terms. By 2050, nearly half of all
economic growth (measured in terms of production of GDP)
will happen in Asia and its three sub-regions: Central and
South Asia, East Asia and Southeast Asia and Pacific both
for Jazz and Symphony. This means that the share of Asia
on total primary energy consumption will increase from 40%
in 2010 to 48% in Jazz and 45% in Symphony. To compare:
by 2050, Europe and North America (including Mexico)
will make up for about 30% of total global primary energy
consumption in Jazz and 31% in Symphony (2010: 44%).
Africa, including the middle East will account for 15% (Jazz)
and 16% in Symphony (2010: 11%) and Latin America and
The Caribbean 8% in Jazz and 7% in Symphony (2010: 5%).

GDP per capita (US$2010 MER)

$9,160 $23,140 $18,320

in 2010 Jazz 2050 Symphony 2050

Source: World Energy Council

20 World Energy Scenarios

 201
GDP by region
(trillion US$2010 MER) 172

Source: World Energy Council (2013)

2010 JAZZ 2050 SYMPHONY 2050

63

40 42
36 33 35 35
27
18 15 17 20 17 14 20
12 11 11 10 13
4 1 3 3 2

World
Latin America
& The Caribbean

Middle East &

North Africa

Southeast Asia
& Pacific
Sub-Saharan Africa

South & Central Asia

East Asia
North
America

Europe

Growth is
prominent in
all regions,
Asia will boom
in terms of
the scale of
its economic
development.

World Energy Council 2013 21


The global economy will be challenged to
meet the 450ppm target without unacceptable
carbon prices.
Implications for climate
The WEC has analysed where the Jazz and
Symphony scenarios might lead in terms of
climate change. The WEC has also assessed
the potential impact of Jazz and Symphony
scenarios on the climate with reference to
the work of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC).
Jazz scenario
In Jazz, an assumption is made that the
negotiations on climate change and emissions
targets are not finalised. In the absence of
international agreed commitments, regions,
countries, states and municipalities take their
own sustainable development initiatives and
pathways. An international carbon market grows
slowly from the bottom up based on regional,
national and local initiatives, which coalesce to
achieve greater market efficiencies and liquidity.
The WEC’s commitment to climate change
At the COP 15 (Conference of Parties) meeting,
the 15th session of the United Nations (UN)
Framework Convention on Climate Change,
the ‘Copenhagen Agreement’ or ‘Copenhagen
Accord’ was ratified by delegates and they
endorsed the continuation of the Kyoto
Protocol. Specific emissions-reduction targets
for 2020 were submitted by individual countries.
At subsequent COP meetings, this was
reinforced, in particular at the COP18 meeting
in Doha when the ‘Doha Climate Gateway’ was
developed – a package of deals that set out
a work programme through which both rich
and developing countries can deliver a new
international climate agreement. The Doha
Climate Gateway includes a timetable for a
2015 global climate change agreement and
for increasing ambitions before 2020. At Doha,
22 World Energy Scenarios
Key message
Commercially viable innovative low-carbon
technologies (solar, wind, and city gas/waste to
energy) experience growth, major reductions
in CO2 emissions come from growth in natural
gas, in preference to oil and coal for purely
economic reasons.
Symphony scenario
In Symphony, countries pass through the Doha
Gateway and successfully negotiate a global
treaty because all countries are prepared to
accept commitments and concessions. Climate
change has more focus along with international
initiatives on climate change. Low-carbon
technologies are promoted despite lacking
commercial viability at initial stages.
The carbon market is top-down based on an
international agreement, with commitments
countries agreed a course for negotiating the
Durban Platform for Enhanced Action, a new
climate deal for all countries to be agreed by
2015 and to take effect in 2020 – the Ad Hoc
Working Group on the Durban Platform for
Enhanced Action (ADP).
To establish a clear link between energy use
and climate change objectives, the WEC has
included the Doha Climate Gateway as a
key differentiator between its two scenarios.
The WEC assumes that in the Symphony
scenario, countries pass through the Gateway
and successfully negotiate a global treaty.
In the Jazz scenario, these negotiations
fail, and regions, countries, states and
municipalities take their own sustainable
development pathways.
Emissions trajectories for atmospheric GHG concentrations
Source: World Energy Council (2013) based on the IPCC’s 4th assessment report (AR4) (2007)
80
70
60
CO2 emissions (Gt/y)
50
40
30
20
10
0
2010 2020
IPCC Categories (CO2 – eq)
445−490 ppm 535−590 ppm
490−535 ppm 590−710 ppm
JAZZ
CO2 emissions in the Jazz scenario follow a
trajectory consistent with a long-term atmospheric
concentration of all GHGs of between 590 and
710 parts per million CO2 equivalent.
and allocations. In the early part of the
scenario period, national initiatives to meet
treaty obligations to reduce emissions emerge
(developed and developing countries).
These national initiatives are linked to form
regional markets with exchange of Clean
Development Mechanism (CDM) and other
emission units. The final part of the scenario
period sees global action on climate change
with the market instrument emission trading
as the leading mechanism for meeting CO2
emission obligations.
The WEC’s scenarios and climate
implications
The above chart shows the potential implications
of the emissions trajectories for Jazz and
Symphony for atmospheric GHG concentrations
2030 2040 2050
Note: assumes over the long term
that non-energy CO2 emissions from
710−855 ppm JAZZ industry,agriculture and land use
855−1130 ppm SYMPHONY are reduced to insignificant levels
in Jazz and Symphony
SYMPHONY
Symphony is on track for 490-535 ppm
CO2 equivalent.
(and hence climate) based on the IPCC’s 4th
Assessment Report:
Although Jazz includes a stronger emphasis on
adaptation and Symphony mitigation, in both
scenarios additional action is expected over
the longer term (beyond 2050), further reducing
the impact on climate. The implications of these
changes to atmospheric GHG concentrations
for surface temperature change, sea-level rise,
changes in precipitation, incidence of extreme
events and other impacts remain uncertain.
Pressure for climate action will change over the
period, the WEC recognises that the climate
forcing of CO2 is considered now to be lower in
some of the scientific literature in 2013. There
is also increasing awareness of severe weather
events that could be linked to climate forcing.
World Energy Council 2013 23
 Key message

A low-carbon future is not only linked

to renewables: CC(U)S is important and
consumer behaviour needs changing.

CO2 emissions and

climate change
CO2 emissions will increase in both scenarios in the first
half of the scenario period. In the Symphony scenario,
where, by assumption, greater emphasis is placed on
climate change mitigation and adaptation, a turning point
will be reached by 2020. In the Jazz scenario, the turning
point is only reached by 2040. As far as the total amount
of CO2 emissions are concerned, both scenarios differ
substantially. In the Jazz scenario, CO2 emissions will
be more than 44 billion tonnes per annum in 2050 which
is 45% higher than in 2010. In the Symphony scenario,
CO2 emissions reach 19 billion tonnes per annum which
is nearly 40% lower than in 2010. The WEC’s World
Energy Scenarios to 2050 underline that a reduction of
greenhouse gas emissions is possible in the second half
of the scenario period with global agreements and the
implementation of cost-efficient measures like emissions
trading within a cap and trade system (assumed in
Symphony).

24 World Energy Scenarios

CO2 emissions (Gt CO2/y)

30.5 44.1 19.1

in 2010 Jazz 2050 Symphony 2050

Source: World Energy Council (2013) (CO2 emissions only,

not CO2 equivalents)

World Energy Council 2013 25

 Share of renewables in electricity generation
will be between 31% and 48% by 2050.

Towards low-carbon
electricity generation
Electricity generation from renewable energy sources
(RES-E) will increase around four to five times by 2050 in
comparison to 2010. This is strongest in the Symphony
scenario. In Symphony, electricity generation from hydro
doubles, for biomass the increase is eight-fold, and for
wind eleven-fold when comparing figures for 2010 with
2050. Solar PV has the highest increase of approximately
230 times between 2010 and 2050. By 2050, globally,
almost as much electricity is produced from solar PV as
from coal (coal and coal with CC(U)S).

The share of renewable energy sources for electricity

generation will increase from approximately 20 per
cent in 2010 to more than 30% in 2050 in Jazz
and nearly 50% in Symphony.

The degree to which renewable energy sources will be

used and investment in CC(U)S technologies for coal
and gas (and also biomass) will be decisive in
mitigating climate change.

26 World Energy Scenarios

 Solar power will increase from 34.4 (TWh/y) to

2,980
in the Jazz scenario by 2050
7,740
in the Symphony scenario by 2050

Renewable Electricity Production (Units: TWh/y)

Source: World Energy Council (2013)

Hydro Geothermal

3,490 5,790 7,700 70 950 650

in 2010 Jazz 2050 Symphony 2050 in 2010 Jazz Symphony
2050 2050

Wind Solar

360 4,510 4,000 35 2,980 7,740

in 2010 Jazz 2050 Symphony 2050 in 2010 Jazz 2050 Symphony 2050

Biomass Biomass (with CCS)

CO2 CO2

340 1,920 1,910 0 440 800

in 2010 Jazz 2050 Symphony 2050 in 2010 Jazz 2050 Symphony 2050

World Energy Council 2013 27

 Key message

CC(U)S technology, solar energy and energy

storage are the key uncertainties up to 2050.

Carbon capture, utilisation

and storage
Carbon capture utilisation and storage (CC(U)S)
technologies are widely employed in Symphony and hence
subject to higher growth rates in the Symphony scenario
than in the Jazz scenario. Half of the total electricity
generated based on fossil fuels will be in conjunction with
CC(U)S in 2050 in Symphony. Combining nuclear and
CC(U)S for gas, coal and biomass, more than 80% of
all electricity generated in 2050 will be from low-carbon
sources in the Symphony scenario, compared to 40% in the
Jazz scenario. To compare: In 2010, only one-third of global
electricity generation was CO2 from low-carbon sources.

The WEC believes that CC(U)S technology, solar energy and

energy storage are the key uncertainties moving forward up
to 2050. For CC(U)S to work, clear legislative frameworks
are needed – combined with infrastructure investment and
the right incentives. A low-carbon future is not only linked to
renewables: CC(U)S is important and consumer behaviour
needs changing. Changes in consumption habits can be
an effective way to decarbonise the energy system. Voters
need to balance local and global issues.

‘For decarbonisation to
be more effective, citizens
play a crucial role, as
consumers in Jazz, and
voters in Symphony.’
28 World Energy Scenarios
 Carbon capture, utilisation and storage

CO2 injection
CO2 capture and CO2 CO2
separation plant compression unit transport

CO2 injection

Enhanced Oil
Recovery

CO2 source CO2 storage

Oil
(e.g. power plant)

CC(U)S (Units: GtCO2/y)

CC(U)S will boom in East
Source: World Energy Council (2013) Asia, as the future growth
centre. Environmental issues
become a concern and
Jazz 2050 Symphony 2050
governments will react.

North America Europe South and Central Asia

0.2 1.1 0.3 1.2 0.1 1.2

0.2 1.6
East Asia
MENA

0.1 0.4

LAC

0.1 0.2
Africa

0.1 0.5 Southeast Asia and Pacific

0.2 0.7

World Energy Council 2013 29

 Assessment of Jazz
vs. Symphony
The WEC believes that a balanced
trilemma can only be achieved through
compromises and global initiatives.
Together with energy efficiency,
CC(U)S, solar and wind will be the key
technologies driving change forward.

Key messages

Energy security: Balancing the energy

trilemma means making difficult choices.

Energy equity: Functioning energy markets

require investments and regional integration
to deliver benefits to all consumers.

Environmental sustainability: Energy policy

should ensure that energy and carbon
markets deliver.

30 World Energy Scenarios

 JAZZ
• Higher energy production
• Greater trading and diversity
of international fossil
energy suppliers
ENERGY
EQUITY
JAZZ
• On average, energy equity progresses
better
• More people are able to afford more
energy because the global market
leads to higher GDP growth
SYMPHONY
• Energy equity is less because there
are inevitably interventions restricting
GDP growth
• Funds directed into low-carbon
initiatives would actually start diverting
funds from other government priorities
such as health care and other
programmes
• Financial resources are not limitless
• Governments have to set spending
priorities
• Wise choice of policies as identified in
the WEC World Energy Trilemma Report
could avoid this drop, as countries
strive to score well on the WEC’s
trilemma index
SYMPHONY
• Wider diversity of energy
resource types
• Has government-promoted
investment in infrastructure
ENVIRONMENTAL
SUSTAINABILITY
JAZZ
• Emissions don’t drop until after 2040
• Performance improves markedly if a
bottom-up carbon market develops
early in the scenario, but the higher
GDP growth still means higher
emissions
• Puts more emphasis on adaptation
SYMPHONY
• Scores well on environmental impact
mitigation particularly CO2 emission
reduction, with emissions dropping
after 2020
• Externalities are more effectively
internalised: this is primarily because
countries adopt a range of mechanisms
to meet treaty obligations on CO2
• Higher carbon prices would achieve
higher emission reduction
• The market instrument emission trading
is assumed as the leading mechanism
for meeting CO2 emission obligations in
the second part of the scenario period
World Energy Council 2013 31
 The WEC’s scenario
building methodology
The WEC’s World Energy Scenarios to 2050
are designed to glimpse what the future might
look like in a plausible and maybe challenging
manner – yet they are not meant to be exact or
precise forecasts.
Predicting the future is not possible. As we
move on, the range of possible future outcomes
becomes greater – especially since uncertainty
increases. As trends and innovations pick
up speed and gain momentum, their impact
increases.
The signals we observe today can be distilled
into drivers, critical uncertainties, and pre-
determined elements that form the future. It is
of strategic importance that governments and
companies who seek to make investments and
take decisions in the energy sector undertake
some sort of long-term planning exercise.
In order to aid senior decision makers and
policymakers in this endeavour the WEC began
its newest scenario building exercise in 2010.
To develop a view of how the energy landscape
might look in 2050, the WEC started by looking
at the critical drivers of the energy system from
the broadest possible viewpoint by adopting
a systemic approach. The WEC structured its
analysis by first identifying 116 drivers that will
affect the energy landscape globally up to 2050.
These drivers were narrowed down to 29 key
issues that will have an impact on the energy
landscape up to 2050, and 15 key clusters where
identified that were then used to derive the two
future spaces or scenarios.

The scenario funnel: As uncertainty increases, the funnel widens

Source: World Energy Council (2013)
Uncertainty

Ran
ge
o

rio
f po

ena 2050
ssib

Sc
me
le o

xt re
E tion
utc

pola
xtra
om

E
es

e Scenario
Extrem

Today Time

32 World Energy Scenarios

The WEC’s scenarios: Two future spaces
Source: World Energy Council (2013)

29 Issue
papers Scenario 1
(Jazz)

116 drivers 15 clusters

Regional
messages

Scenario 2
(Symphony)

Expert input

These 15 key clusters are:
1. Government and the role of state
2. Availability of funds: investment
3. Mitigation of CO2
4. Equality, energy access and poverty
5. Global economics
6. Energy prices
7. Consumer/citizen acceptance
8. Energy efficiency
9. Technology developments
10. Security of supply
11. China and India
12. Energy poverty
13. Energy sources
14. Competition for resources
15. Skills shortages
In WEC’s view, the future development in these
15 key clusters will determine how the ‘energy
landscape’ might look in 2050. All clusters are
therefore equally important, none of them is more
important than another.
The WEC has used these key clusters and
bundled them to form two separate future
spaces, depending on the exact assumptions
made that ultimately represent two different
views of the world and hence two possible future
‘scenarios’. The two scenarios stories that were
developed on these methodological bases are
therefore exploratory and not normative, equally
probable but differentiated – rather than just
good and bad.
To obtain the best possible input from energy
experts worldwide, the WEC has adopted an
open, inclusive and transparent process with
input from constituents into the scenario stories a
scenarios study group, expert participation and
interviews, and a series of regional workshops
in New Delhi, Johannesburg, London, Beijing,
Cancun, and Washington.

World Energy Council 2013 33

 The WEC scenarios quantification: Use of a global multi-regional MARKAL (GMM) model
Source: World Energy Council (2013)
Popluation
demographic transitions, timing
GDP
patterns of economic
development, structural change,
catch-up, dematerialisation
Scenario
Energy service
intensity/efficiency
Technological development
uptake/discovery of new
technologies, improvements
to existing
Resource availability
Policies
STORYLINE
WEC’s quantification of the
scenario stories
To model and quantify each scenario, the
drivers from the clusters were grouped and
then translated into quantified inputs such as
energy demands, technology characteristics
and deployment/availability, energy resource
availability and extraction costs, CO2 prices and
others. Policy measures and behavioural aspects
of the scenario assumptions were translated into
additional modelling constraints and parameters,
for example, assumptions on unconventional
fossil resources, biofuels, and climate policy.
The storyline development and quantification
steps sought to account for the interdependence
between different drivers and input assumptions
(e.g. energy demand, which depends on GDP,
structural developments and energy efficiency,
which in turn relies on policy and other factors).
The scenario drivers are used as input to an
energy system model, which: (i) models the
structure of the underlying energy system; (ii)
is based on numerical data and time series;
(iii) follows a specific mathematical structure;
(iv) includes information on boundaries and
constraints based on user-defined relationships;
and (v) can accommodate different scenarios
and strategies.
2 The MARKAL modelling framework is widely used in over 250 institutions in approximately 70 countries; the framework is part of IEA’s Energy
Technology Systems Analysis Program (ETSAP).
34 World Energy Scenarios
• System configuration
• Fuel and technology mix
• Final energy consumption
GMM • Primary energy supply
Model • Electricity generation mix
• Capacity expansion plan
• Emission levels
• System cost
QUANTIFICATION
The energy system model employed by the WEC
to quantify its scenario stories is based on the
well-established MARKAL (MARket ALlocation)
framework.2 More specifically, the WEC uses the
global multi-regional MARKAL (GMM) model
maintained by the Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI).
GMM is a cost-optimisation model that yields
least-cost solutions for the global energy system
under a given set of scenario assumptions and
constraints. It is a dynamic partial-equilibrium
model; the shares of technologies and of energy
carriers used for extraction and for conversion as
well as the final energy demands are determined
endogenously by the model, whereas the
demands of useful energy (services) are
scenario inputs.
The GMM model allows the world to be
subdivided into different regions so that different
regional splits can be analysed. The model also
considers a long-term horizon (to 2050 and
potentially beyond) allowing the analysis of future
energy issues of resource depletion, climate
change policy, economic development and
technology learning.
GMM is a bottom-up model that reflects
the WEC’s decentralised approach towards
developing the scenario stories; the model
contains a detailed representation of resources,
technologies, energy flows, and assumptions
regarding technological change, learning, cost
and efficiency improvements over time.
Wild cards and critical
uncertainties
The WEC believes that CC(U)S technology,
changing demand patterns and energy storage
are the key uncertainties moving forward to 2050.
CC(U)S technology is already available and
is potentially one of the lower-cost deep
decarbonisation options, but it will always be an
added cost and will require major pipeline and
other infrastructures. For CC(U)S to work, clear
legislative frameworks are needed, combined
with infrastructure investment and the right
incentives. The carbon price signals that need
to be developed in the coming years to allow
the emergence of CC(U)S will also improve
renewable learning curves and scalability (i.e.
digression of capital cost over time). CC(U)S
might only be feasible in geographical regions
of the world with the right geology. The WEC
assumes that it is most likely that in Symphony
initial CC(U)S projects will involve aquifer
storage in Europe under the North Sea, and
major enhanced oil recovery (EOR) projects in
gas and oil reservoirs in the US driven by US
Environmental Protection Agency restrictions
on CO2 emissions from power generation. The
WEC assumes that, in the Jazz Scenario, without
government interventions the market will be
slow to optimise on CO2 due to the high initial
infrastructure costs involved, unless there are
commercial drivers such as EOR.
As far as energy storage technologies are
concerned, pump storage is a well-developed
and widely applied technology, with its use
limited by site limitations. Power-to-gas
(hydrogen or methane) could be an early
option given it could use existing gas pipeline
infrastructures. Other new and emerging energy
storage technologies, such as batteries and
hydrogen, still need more R&D before they
become commercially viable. Investment in
R&D is therefore needed to promote these
technologies which could play a key role up
to 2050 especially to overcome the problem of
intermittency of renewables.
World Energy Council 2013 35
 The WEC’s World Energy
Scenarios to 2050
Key signal messages for policymakers and
energy leaders from Jazz and Symphony
1
Energy system complexity will
increase by 2050
The energy landscape we expect to see
in 2050 will be quite different from how it
looks today. Meeting energy supply and
demand will gain complexity. Energy systems will remain
complex – there are substantial system integration costs
especially when a large proportion of renewables are
involved due to increased network expansion costs in
both transmission and distribution systems (especially
in the Symphony scenario). To better understand and
ultimately cope better with this increasing complexity,
integrated system modelling will deserve more attention
in the future to provide a more holistic view and lead to a
better understanding of complex energy systems.
2
Energy efficiency is crucial in dealing
with demand outstripping supply
The WEC’s World Energy Scenarios to
2050 show that energy efficiency and
energy conservation are absolutely crucial
in dealing with demand outstripping supply – both
require a change in consumer priorities and have cost
implications across industries – and hence capital
is required to finance energy-efficiency measures
in terms of an initial investment before it can pay off.
Both in the Jazz and Symphony scenarios, electric
mobility comes later than originally expected – at
the earliest after 2030. Policymakers and industry
need to undertake even greater effort to promote the
share of renewables in electricity production which
is not increasing enough to ensure environmental
sustainability in the long run up to 2050 and beyond.
3
The energy mix in 2050 will mainly be
fossil based
The WEC’s World Energy Scenarios to 2050
show that, in 2050, fossil fuels will still play
a crucial role for both power generation
and transport, this is particularly so in Jazz. Coal is
going to play an important role in the long run, especially
for power generation in China and India, the two most
rapidly growing demand centres up to 2050. Natural
gas, especially from unconventional sources, will play an
increasing role and gain more importance in the energy
share. An example is the transport sector where heavy
transport will depend on fossil fuels for decades to come.
36 World Energy Scenarios
Oil will continue to remain dominant for transport, an
increase in importance of unconventional sources – in
particular oil sands, and oil shale – is expected. No
renaissance of nuclear energy is anticipated. Nuclear
energy is not a game-changer – with limited impact also
because of restrictions in economics. In the Symphony
scenario, the WEC anticipates a large increase in the
share of renewables – mainly in solar PV, hydro and
wind globally.
4
Regional priorities differ: there is
no ‘one-size-fits-all’ solution to the
energy trilemma
There is no global solution to the energy
supply issue. Instead, reaching a solution
relies on solving each of the individual parts to reach
the global goal of sustainable, affordable and secure
energy supply for all. Critical uncertainties remain,
especially with regard to CC(U)S and the future
development of energy storage technologies that are
scalable in economic terms.
In this complex world, governments play a crucial
role in determining and establishing frameworks for
markets to function in both scenarios. Industries and
markets need to provide efficient solutions. Up to 2050,
the reality will lie somewhere between the Jazz and
Symphony scenarios in terms of energy supply, energy
demand increases, and GDP growth – or it might even
go beyond the levels indicated here.
5
The global economy will be challenged
to meet the 450ppm target without
unacceptable carbon prices
World Energy Scenarios to 2050 underline
that a reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions
is possible in the second half of the scenario period if
it comes to global agreements and the implementation
of cost-efficient market instruments like emissions
trading within a cap and trade system (assumed in
Symphony). Carbon capture and storage (CC(U)S)
as a cost-efficient CO2 mitigation option can play an
important role after 2030 – dependent on the assumed
CO2 price. Such a price for CO2 has to be high enough
to create right signals to provide an adequate incentive
for CO2 reduction.
The WEC’s World Energy Scenarios to 2050 indicate
that these large reductions in CO2 are possible when
governments are acting and industry players and
markets are given right incentives to provide suitable
technological solutions to achieve this. However, current
signals indicate that the global economy is not on track
to meet the 450ppm target (in terms of the emission
pathway) without unacceptable carbon prices. In the
Symphony scenario, CO2 emissions begin to drop from
2030, but fall short of the 450ppm target. In the Jazz
Scenario, lower carbon prices emissions do not plateau
until around 2050.
6
A low-carbon future is not only linked
to renewables: CC(U)S is important and
consumer behaviour needs changing
Carbon capture, use and storage
(CC(U)S) is a suitable technology
(In addition to renewable electricity generation) to
reduce CO2 emissions. Given a CO2 price signal
CC(U)S can play an important role after 2030 as a
cost efficient CO2 mitigation option.
Such a price for CO2 has to be high enough to create
the right signals to provide an adequate incentive
for CO2 reduction. Issues remain such as technical
feasibility at a large scale, public resistance and the
upfront infrastructure cost. These are addressed more in
Symphony where CC(U)S and solar contribute equally
to the decarbonisation of energy systems by 2050.
For the decarbonisation to be more effective, citizens
play a crucial role, as consumers in Jazz, and voters in
Symphony. Changes in consumption habits can be an
effective way to decarbonise the energy system. Voters
need to balance local and global issues.
7
CC(U)S technology, solar energy and
energy storage are the key uncertainties
moving forward up to 2050
The WEC believes that CC(U)S technology,
solar energy and energy storage are
the key uncertainties moving forward up to 2050.
CC(U)S technology is already available and is potentially
one of the lower-cost, deep decarbonisation options,
but it will always be an added cost and will require major
pipeline and other infrastructures. For CC(U)S to work,
clear legislative frameworks are needed – combined with
infrastructure investment and the right incentives.
The WEC assumes that solar technologies, in particular
solar PV, will take off promoted by feed-in electricity tariffs,
subsidies and net pricing in Europe, and solar technology
prices tumbling. The technologies then make major
inroads, and used in India, Africa and other countries to
bring power to rural and off-grid communities. Subsidies
are needed for solar to be economic and to create an
incentive for investment to happen. Subsidies for solar are
higher in Symphony than they are in Jazz, which leads to
a higher trajectory of uptake of solar PV in Symphony.
As far as energy-storage technologies are concerned,
pump storage is a well-developed and widely applied
technology, its use is limited. Other new and emerging
energy storage technologies, batteries, hydrogen,
power to gas (hydrogen or methane), still need more
research and development (R&D) before they become
commercially viable. Investment in R&D is therefore
needed to promote these technologies which could play
a key role up to 2050 especially to overcome the problem
of intermittency of high levels of renewables in Symphony.
8
Balancing the energy trilemma means
making difficult choices
Citizens face a choice between affordable
energy with higher economic growth in
Jazz, or more expensive energy prices
and less impact on the environment in Symphony. This
underlines that a holistic long-term view on the energy
sector is required to address these energy trilemma
issues up to 2050 and beyond.
For politicians, the time of short-termism is over:
clear and stable legislative frameworks are needed to
ensure financial predictability, for markets to develop
and for industry to provide solutions to rising global
energy needs.
9
Functioning energy markets require
investments and regional integration to
deliver benefits to all consumers
The availability of funds for investment is one
of the key clusters in scenario building terms
that will shape the energy landscape until 2050. The WEC
has assessed the investment implications for electricity
generation both for the Jazz and the Symphony scenarios
at the global and regional level. Long-term investment
decisions are needed to meet future energy demand.
The investment costs for electricity generation
associated with each scenario are in the region of
approximately US$265 trillion (US$2010) in the Jazz
scenario and approximately US$19 trillion (US$2010)
in the Symphony scenario for electricity-generating
capacity only.
For an investment in this region to be taken, clear
signals are needed, together with high financial
predictability, stable regulatory frameworks with low
regulatory risk and functioning markets to ensure that
energy can be delivered to all consumers who need it
and to the greater benefit all.
10
Energy policy should ensure
that energy and carbon
markets deliver
The WEC firmly believes that
energy policy should ensure that
energy and carbon markets deliver
investments, promote regional integration and hence
provide benefits to consumers. In Symphony, an
agreed 2030 decarbonisation target could provide the
right signals to investors of incentivising investment in
different technologies.
In Symphony, governments should be aware that
promoting new technologies through subsidies such
as feed-in tariffs can also lead to ‘energy market
bubbles’. In the Jazz scenario, governments can
facilitate the growth of national and regional markets
by cutting the red tape, and the promotion of regional
integration and greater cooperation. This will lead to
better market integration and the creation of regional
markets with greater benefits for all consumers.
World Energy Council 2013 37
 Data annex Jazz
Symphony

TOTAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY BY FUEL TYPE

(Units: EJ/y)
Primary energy 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050
Coal 148 181 200 224 223 146 125 101 106
Oil 172 193 225 231 216 177 185 170 141
Gas 114 151 189 216 234 141 160 170 166
Nuclear 30 36 37 37 37 40 52 66 79
Biomass 66 60 59 71 97 62 66 79 111
Hydro 13 14 16 19 21 16 19 24 28
Renewables 2 7 14 28 51 10 23 45 65
Total 545 642 740 826 879 592 630 655 696

TOTAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY BY REGION

(Units: EJ/y)
Region 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050
Sub-Saharan Africa 23 24 29 38 50 23 27 35 46
Southeast Asia, Pacific 32 44 56 66 71 40 46 50 54
North America 116 128 135 136 130 118 114 108 105
Middle East and North Africa 37 44 55 67 79 43 52 59 67
Latin America and The Caribbean 29 38 49 58 67 35 43 47 51
Europe 121 127 133 136 135 119 117 114 114
East Asia 145 187 215 222 211 167 174 166 164
South and Central Asia 43 52 69 102 136 47 57 75 96
Total 546 644 741 825 879 592 630 654 697

TOTAL ELECTRICITY GENERATION

(Units: TWh/y)
Region 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050
Sub-Saharan Africa 414 612 996 1,857 3,087 597 936 1,687 2,836
Southeast Asia, Pacific 996 1,549 2,106 3,123 4,024 1,409 2,045 2,699 3,398
North America 5,214 6,152 6,903 7,728 8,024 6,100 6,733 7,695 8,057
Middle East and North Africa 1,150 1,445 1,951 2,693 3,644 1,485 1,911 2,476 3,314
Latin America and The Caribbean 1,147 1,648 2,422 3,131 3,701 1,571 2,209 2,750 3,221
Europe 5,104 5,932 6,869 7,803 8,439 5,656 6,363 7,037 7,961
East Asia 6,121 8,761 11,070 13,064 14,298 7,749 9,223 10,916 12,571
South and Central Asia 1,331 1,861 2,881 5,055 8,429 1,749 2,476 4,339 6,560
Total 21477 27960 35198 44,454 53,646 26316 31896 39,599 47,918

CARBON PRICE
(US$2010/tCO2)
Region 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050
Sub-Saharan Africa 0 5 10 23 10 23 42 70
Middle East and North Africa 0 5 10 23 10 23 42 70
Latin America and The Caribbean 0 5 10 23 10 23 42 70
North America 8 15 21 28 21 28 55 70
Europe 0–8 5–15 10–30 23–45 10–30 23–40 50–60 75–80
South and Central Asia 0 5 10 23 10 23 50 75
East Asia 0–6 5–12 10–24 23–38 10–24 23–38 50–60 75
Southeast Asia, Pacific 0–6 5–12 10–24 23–38 10–24 23–38 50–60 75

38 World Energy Scenarios

CO2 – EMISSIONS BY REGION
(Units: GtCO2/y)
Region 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050
Sub-Saharan Africa 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.5 1.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9
Southeast Asia, Pacific 1.7 2.5 3.2 3.8 3.7 2.1 2.3 2.1 1.7
North America 6.5 7.2 7.3 7.2 6.7 6.2 5.4 4.4 3.1
Middle East and North Africa 2.1 2.3 2.7 3.1 3.5 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.3
Latin America and The Caribbean 1.2 1.5 2.0 2.2 2.1 1.3 1.5 1.3 0.8
Europe 6.2 6.4 6.7 6.4 5.6 5.6 5.0 3.9 2.5
East Asia 9.8 12.7 14.7 14.7 12.3 10.8 10.1 7.8 5.1
South and Central Asia 2.3 3.0 4.1 6.3 8.4 2.5 2.8 3.1 2.7
Total 30.5 36.4 41.8 45.2 44.0 31.4 30.4 25.9 19.1

CARBON CAPTURE, UTILISATION AND STORAGE BY REGION

(Units: GtCO2/y)
Primary energy 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050
Sub-Saharan Africa 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5
Southeast Asia, Pacific 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7
North America 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1
Middle East and North Africa 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4
Latin America and The Caribbean 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2
Europe 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2
East Asia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.6
South and Central Asia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.2
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.0 0.3 1.7 6.9

GLOBAL ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION BY FUEL TYPE

(Units: TWh/y)
Primary energy 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050
Coal (with CCS) 0 10 87 346 1,007 41 301 1,587 7,100
Coal 8,666 11,920 14,792 18,565 19,272 9,289 7,949 5,280 1,383
Oil 980 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Gas (with CCS) 0 2 31 140 558 11 113 789 2,505
Gas 4,777 7,232 9,734 11,427 12,869 6,609 8,127 9,049 7,012
Nuclear 2,763 3,255 3,430 3,395 3,279 3,651 4,706 5,888 6,950
Hydrogen 0 0 2 12 69 0 5 32 155
Hydro 3,491 4,003 4,550 5,146 5,789 4,337 5,408 6,530 7,701
Biomass 337 287 390 884 1,923 362 535 1,056 1,913
Biomass (with CCS) 0 8 28 160 441 16 100 295 800
Wind 358 818 1,435 3,142 4,513 1,386 2,418 2,994 4,003
Solar 34 302 462 732 2,979 519 2,054 5,752 7,741
Geothermal 69 125 257 504 949 94 182 346 654
Total 21,475 27,962 35,198 44,453 53,648 26,315 31,898 39,598 47,917

World Energy Council 2013 39

 GLOBAL INSTALLED ELECTRICITY GENERATION CAPACITY BY FUEL TYPE
(Units: TWh/y)
Technology 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050
Coal (with CCS) 0 2 14 49 141 9 47 226 1,006
Coal 1,606 2,084 2,503 3,038 3,003 1,610 1,352 1,003 484
Oil 426 289 168 86 41 289 168 86 41
Gas (with CCS) 0 4 20 63 178 8 40 206 603
Gas 1,412 1,657 1,674 1,851 2,353 1,589 1,691 2,198 2,036
Nuclear 373 417 438 434 421 468 603 751 884
Hydrogen 0 0 0 3 15 0 2 10 39
Hydro 1,026 1,136 1,267 1,414 1,575 1,223 1,505 1,854 2,161
Biomass 71 62 65 124 256 73 87 156 292
Biomass (with CCS) 0 2 9 28 78 5 18 52 141
Wind 191 404 621 1,290 1,824 667 1,059 1,274 1,654
Solar 39 255 326 445 1,654 437 1,451 3,585 4,439
Geothermal 11 19 38 75 141 14 28 54 102
Total 5,156 6,330 7,142 8,899 11,680 6,392 8,049 11,454 13,881

CUMULATIVE INVESTMENT IN ELECTRICITY GENERATION

(2010–2050, billion US$2010, undiscounted)
South Latin Middle
Southeast Sub-
and East America East and North
Primary energy Europe Asia and Saharan World
Central Asia and The North America
Pacific Africa
Asia Caribbean Africa
Coal (with CCS) 20 40 50 20 10 30 30 10 200
Coal 2,260 2,540 750 90 30 580 510 180 6,950
Oil 0 20 20 10 10 30 0 0 90
Gas (with CCS) 30 50 0 0 30 0 10 30 140
Gas 100 320 440 190 340 320 190 160 2,050
Nuclear 30 380 370 10 50 160 0 10 1,010
Hydrogen 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 30
Hydropower 230 560 370 310 10 290 100 80 1,950
Biomass 20 20 90 70 0 30 10 20 260
Biomass (with CCS) 10 20 80 30 10 40 30 10 240
Wind 160 370 770 170 10 990 160 100 2,720
Solar 160 710 270 380 150 150 540 580 2,950
Geothermal 40 70 50 80 20 150 240 70 720
Total 3,080 5,100 3,260 1,360 670 2,770 1,820 1,260 19,310
Coal (with CCS) 310 400 290 30 50 290 170 90 1,620
Coal 330 820 240 10 10 110 80 50 1,660
Oil 0 20 20 10 10 30 0 0 90
Gas (with CCS) 80 120 30 10 90 10 50 90 490
Gas 140 470 400 120 270 320 190 70 1,980
Nuclear 130 830 550 30 100 300 60 20 2,020
Hydrogen 60 0 0 10 0 0 10 20 100
Hydropower 540 1,020 510 480 0 490 230 260 3,520
Biomass 50 20 100 120 10 30 10 10 340
Biomass (with CCS) 70 90 90 40 20 70 40 20 440
Wind 580 420 1,020 110 0 990 70 80 3,280
Solar 1,110 3,160 1,120 360 840 1,600 860 600 9,660
Geothermal 60 30 30 0 10 210 100 70 520
Total 3,460 7,400 4,390 1,330 1,410 4,450 1,870 1,380 25,720

40 World Energy Scenarios

Regions

EUROPE

NAM
(North America)
EASTASIA
(East Asia)

SSAFRICA (Sub- CENTASIA (South

LAC (Latin America Saharan Africa) and Central Asia)
and The Caribbean)
PACIASIA
(Southeast Asia,
Pacific)
MENA (Middle East
and North Africa)

Principal contributors

Christoph Frei Dan A. Rieser

Secretary General, WEC Deputy Director, Scenarios

Rob Whitney Ayed Al-Qahtani

Executive Chair of the Scenarios Study Senior Project Manager, Scenarios

Hans-Wilhelm Schiffer Philip Thomas

Executive Vice-Chair Project Manager, Scenarios

Karl Rose
Senior Director, Policies & Scenarios

PSI Energy Economics team

Hal Turton Evangelos Panos

Martin Densing Kathrin Volkart

The views expressed in this report are those of the World Energy Council and do not
necessarily reflect those of PSI or the Energy Economics Team.
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World Energy Scenarios: Composing
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