Econ 250 Winter 2008

Assignment 2
Due on Monday, March 10th
There are total 7 questions with 10 marks each.
1. A center-pivot sprinkler system operated by Colorado Land & agricul-
ture, Inc., is used to water the alfalfa in a circular field. The circumfer-
ence of (distance around) the field is 2 miles. As the sprinkler travels
in an arc around the field, sprinkler nozzles get clogged and must be
cleaned. The distance around the circumference of the field from the
starting point to the point located opposite the outermost nozzle when
a nozzle becomes clogged is the value of a random variable X that is
uniformly distributed over the 2-mile circumference of the field, For
X a random variable for the distance covered before a nozzle clogs
with a rectangular or uniform distribution, where 0 ≤ X ≤ 2, find the
following probabilities.

a. P (X ≤ 1).
b. P (0.5 ≤ X ≤ 1).
c. P (X ≥ 1.5).
d. P (0 ≤ X ≤ 2).

a) 0.5 b) 0.25 c) 0.25 d) 1

2. The probability that an entering college student will graduate is 0.4.
Determine the probability that out of 5 students

a. none.
b. one.
c. at least one will graduate.

a)
P (none will graduate) =5 C0 (0.4)0 (0.6)5 = 0.07776
b)
P (one will graduate) =5 C1 (0.4)1 (0.6)4 = 0.2592
c)
P (at least one will graduate) = 1−P (none will graduate) = 1−5 C0 (0.4)0 (0.6)5 = 0.922

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3. The mean weight of 500 male students at a certain college is 151 lb
and the standard deviation is 15 lb. Assuming that the weights are
normally distributed, find how many students weight

a. between 120 and 155 lb.

b. more than 185 lb.
d. less or equal to 128 lb.

a)
120 − 151 155 − 151
P (120 < X < 155) = P ( <X< ) = 0.4821+0.1179 = 0.6
15 15
Number of students is 500 ∗ 0.6 = 300
b)
185 − 151
P (X > 185) = P ( ) = 0.0107
15
Number of students is 500 ∗ 0.0107 = 5.
c)
128 − 151
P (X ≤ 128) = P ( ) = 0.0668
15
Number of students is 500 ∗ 0.0668 = 33

4. A die is tossed 120 times. Assuming the die is fair, find the probability
that 4 will turn up

a. 18 times or less.
b. 14 times or less.

(Hint: using continuity correction)

p
Since µ = N p = 120(1/6) = 20 and σ = N p(1 − p) = 4.08,

18 + 0.5 − 20
P (X ≤ 18) = P (Z ≤ ) = 0.3557
4.08

14 + 0.5 − 20
P (X ≤ 14) = P (Z ≤ ) = 0.0885
4.08

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5. Given that X1 , X2 , and X3 are independent with
X1 ∼ N (5, 10); X2 ∼ N (12, 20); X3 ∼ N (15, 13);
a. Find the mean, variance, and distribution of
Y = 3X1 − 5X2 + 4X3 + 8
b. Find P (Y > 10).
a)
µy = 3µ1 − 5µ2 + 4µ3 + 8 = 23
σy2 = 9σ12 + 25σ22 + 16σ33 = 698
Thus,
Y ∼ N (23, 698)
b)
10 − 23
P (Y > 10) = P (Z > ) ≈ 0.6879
6980 .5
6. Five hundred ball bearings have a mean weight of 5.02 ounces and a
standard deviation of 0.3 ounces. Find the probability that a random
sample of 100 ball bearings chosen from this group will have a combined
weight of
a. between 496 and 500 ounces.
b. more than 510 ounces.
For the sampling distribution of means, µx = µ = 5.02
s
σ Np − N
σx = √ = 0.027
N Np − 1
a) The combined weight will lie between 496 and 500 oz if the mean
weight of the 100 ball bearing lies between 4.96 and 5 oz.
4.96 − 5.02 5 − 5.02
P( ≤Z≤ ) = 0.4868 − 0.2704 = 0.2164
0.027 0.027
b) The combined weight will exceed 510 oz if the mean weight of the
100 bearings exceeds 5.1 ounces.
5.1 − 5.02
P (Z > ) = 0.0015
0.027

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7. The electric light bulbs of manufacturer A have a mean lifetime of 1400
hours with a standard deviation of 200 hours, while those of manufac-
turer B have a mean lifetime of 1200 hours with a standard deviation
of 100 hours. If random samples of 125 bulbs of each brand are tested,
what is the probability that the brand A bulbs will have a mean lifetime
which is at least

a. 160 hours
b. 250 hours

more than the brand B bulbs.

Let X A and X B denotes the mean lifetime of samples A and B respec-
tively. Then

µX A −X B = µX A − µX B = 1400 − 1200 = 200

s
σA2 σ2
σX A −X B = + B = 20
NA NB

The standardized variable for the difference in means is

(X A − X B ) − (µX A −X B ) (X A − X B ) − 200
z= =
σX A −X B 20

and is very closely normally distributed.

a)
160 − 200
P (Z ≥ 160) = P ( ) = 0.9772
20
b)
250 − 200
P (Z ≥ 250)P ( ) = 0.0062
20