Using LEAP program to calculate

GHG emission 1990 to 2030 in

energy sector
Ngoan Thi Nghiem
Reseacher, Institute of Energy Science
LEAP: User Interface

5
 Main Components of a LEAP
Analysis
• Energy Demand Analysis
• Energy Conversion and Resources
(Transformation)
• Emissions (GHGs and Local Air Pollutants)
• Cost-Benefit Analysis
• Optimization in LEAP
 Demand Analysis in LEAP
• Analysis of energy consumption and associated costs
and emissions in an area.
• Demands organized into a flexible hierarchical tree
structure.
• Typically organized by sector, subsector, end-use and
device.
• Supports multiple methodologies:
– End-use analysis: energy = activity level x energy intensity
– Econometric forecasts
– Stock-turnover modeling
 A Simple Demand Data Structure
Households Urban Electrified Lighting Existing (80%, 400 kWh/yr)
(8 million) (30%) (100%) (100%) Efficient (20%, 300kWh/yr)

Refrigeration
(80%)

Cooking
Rural Electrified (100%)
(70%) (20%)
Other
(50%)
Non-Electrified
(80%)

• The tree is the main data structure used for organizing data
and models, and for reviewing results.
• Icons indicate the types of data (e.g., categories,
technologies, fuels and environmental effects).
• Users can edit the tree on-screen using standard editing
functions (copy, paste, drag & drop)
• Structure can be detailed and end-use oriented, or highly
aggregate (e.g. sector by fuel).
• Detail can be varied from sector to sector.
Transformation Analysis in LEAP
• Analysis of energy conversion, transmission and distribution, and
resource extraction.
• Demand-driven engineering-based simulation.
• Basic hierarchy: “modules” (sectors), each containing one or more
“processes”. Each process can have one or more feedstock fuels and
one or more auxiliary fuels.
• Allows for simulation of both capacity expansion and process dispatch.
• Calculates imports, exports and primary resource requirements.
• Tracks costs and environmental loadings.
• Choice of two solution methodologies: simulation or optimization.
General Transformation Module Layout
A Transformation Module for
Electricity Generation

11
A Transformation Module for
Electricity Generation

12
A Simple, Non-Dispatched
Transformation Module
 Energy Balances in LEAP
• Results automatically formatted as standard energy balance
tables.
• Balances can be viewed for any year, scenario or region in
different units.
• Balance columns can be switched among fuels, fuel groupings,
years, and regions.
• Balance rows are the Demand and Transformation sectors.
Optionally can show subsectoral results
• Displays results in any energy unit.
• Results in table, chart, or energy flow diagram formats.

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 Social Cost-Benefit Demand
Analysis in LEAP (costs of saved energy,
device costs, other non-fuel
costs)
• Societal perspective of costs and
benefits (i.e. economic not financial
analysis).
• Avoids double-counting by drawing Transformation
consistent boundary around (Capital and O&M costs)
analysis (e.g. whole system
including).
• Cost-benefit analysis calculates the Primary Resource Costs
Net Present Value (NPV) of the
differences in costs between two or
scenarios. Delivered Fuel Costs
• NPV sums all costs in all years of
the study discounted to a common
base year.
• Optionally includes externality Environmental
costs, decommissioning costs and Externality Costs
costs of unserved demands. 15
 Emissions Accounting
• Emission factors for any GHG or local air pollutant can be entered in
LEAP and used to calculate emissions loadings.
• Can be specified in any physical unit and can be denominated by
units of either energy consumption or production (e.g. kg/ton of
coal) or distance driven for transport factors (e.g. grams/mile).
• Can also be specified in terms of the chemical composition of fuels
(e.g. sulfur): automatically adjusts standard emission factors based
on specific fuels used in the study area.
• Includes default IPCC “Tier 1” emission factors for GHG inventories.
• Results can be shown for individual pollutants or summed to show
overall Global Warming Potential (GWP).
Case study: Calculate GHG emission
1990 to 2030 in energy sector

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 Input data
- Energy consumption by fuel in 5 sectors: Industry, Agriculture,
Commercial, Resident and Transportation for calculating period:
From 1990-2010: web Asia - Pacific Economic Cooperation
http://www.ieej.or.jp/egeda/database/database-top.html
From 2015-2030: forcast energy demand using Simple E program
(Simple Econometric Simulation System)
- Information about power plants: capacity, addition capicity,
process efficiency, maximum availability
 Results: GHG emission
GHG emission by fuels: million tones CO2eq

Fuels 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Natural gas 0.59 0.63 0.61 2.16 22.52 23.41 31.07 44.28 43.57
Gasoline 1.88 2.76 4.26 8.01 13.71 25.73 25.50 37.74 55.37
Jet Fuel 0.29 0.60 0.63 0.89 2.45 2.89 4.03 5.99 9.34
Kerosene 0.65 0.91 1.15 1.05 0.27 0.40 0.42 0.43 0.44
Diesel Oil 3.34 6.07 9.41 17.10 22.06 30.20 46.06 63.54 82.80
Residual Fuel Oil 1.72 3.75 5.39 6.70 16.18 25.41 29.24 32.53 36.25
LPG - 0.17 1.02 2.90 4.24 5.52 8.18 11.29 15.13
Coal 11.10 16.13 18.35 31.76 66.57 141.95 267.05 381.58 605.22
Biomass 3.22 3.47 3.71 3.96 3.96 3.96 3.96 3.96 3.96
Total 22.78 34.49 44.53 74.53 151.96 259.48 415.50 581.35 852.08
 Results: GHG emission

Structure of GHG emission fuels 1990 & 2030

 Results: GHG emission
GHG emission by Sector: million tones CO2eq
Branches 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Agriculture 0.71 1.08 1.14 1.54 1.65 1.59 2.01 2.73 3.69
Commercial 0.88 1.89 3.19 4.23 3.57 3.65 6.39 9.82 14.00

Industry 5.58 10.12 14.03 22.67 40.26 42.37 61.29 87.50 120.12

Resident 4.08 5.54 6.94 9.54 11.42 11.94 15.50 20.03 24.80

Transportation 4.16 7.53 11.20 20.64 33.31 53.35 68.44 98.36 137.66

Electricity
7.37 8.34 8.04 15.92 61.75 146.58 261.88 362.91 551.80
Generation

Total 22.78 34.49 44.53 74.53 151.96 259.48 415.50 581.35 852.08
 Results: GHG emission
Structure of GHG emission Sector: %

Branches 2000 2010 2020 2030

Agriculture 2.78 1.11 0.49 0.43

Commercial 7.84 2.42 1.55 1.65

Industry 33.93 27.07 14.84 14.14

Resident 8.13 4.99 2.75 2.37

Transportation 27.53 22.52 16.63 16.23

Electricity Generation 19.79 41.89 63.75 65.18

Total 100 100 100 100

 Concluding
Case study supply some basic information:
- Fuel have lagest emission?
- Sector have lagest emission?
- How many emission amount next year? Growth?
- To reduce GHG emission, we should forcus on which
sector?
- To have a better calculation results, we need to build
emission factor by fuel for Vietnam.