Binomial Distribution

A fair coin is tossed 500 times. Find the probability that the number of heads will not differ from
250 by

(a) More than 10

(b) More than 30

Solution:

1 1 1
  np  (500)( )  250   npq  (500)( )( )  11.18
2 2 2

Since n large, so we use normal distribution to binomial distribution. Then,

Y ~ N( 250, 11.182)

(a) We require the probability that that the number of heads lie between 240 and 260 or
considering the data as continuous, between 239.5 and 260.5 (continuity correction)

239.5  250 260.5  250

P(Y  239.5)   0.94 and P(Y  260.5)   0.94
11.18 11.18

From standard normal table 0.94 = 0.3264

Required probability = (twice area)
= 2(0.3264) = 0.6528

(b) We require the probability that that the number of heads lie between 220 and 280 or
considering the data as continuous, between 219.5 and 280.5 (continuity correction)

219.5  250 260.5  250

P(Y  219.5)   2.73 and P(Y  280.5)   2.73
11.18 11.18

From standard normal table 2.73 = 0.4968

Required probability = (twice area)
= 2(0.4968) = 0.9936
 Poisson Distribution

10% of the tools produced in a certain manufacturing process turn out to be defective. Find the
probability that in a sample of 10 tools chosen at random, exactly 2 will be defective, by using :
Then, compare the result.

(a) Binomial distribution

(b) The Poisson approximation to the Binomial distribution.

Solution :

(a) The probability of a defective tool is p = 0.1. Let X denote the number of defective
tools out of 10 chosen.

10 
p( X  2)   (0.1) 2 (0.9)8 = 0.1973
2

(b) We have   np  (10)(0.1)  1 .

x e  
P( X  x) 
x!

12 e 1
P( X  2)   0.1839
2!

We can see that, the Poisson approximation is good if p  0.1 and   np  5

Normal distribution

The mean inside diameter of a sample of 200 washers produced by a machine is 0.502 inches and
standard deviation is 0.005 inches. The purpose for which these washers are intended allows a
maximum tolerance in the diameter of 0.496 to 0.508 inches, otherwise the washers are
considered defective. Determine the percentage of defective washers produced by the machine,
assuming the diameter are normally distributed.

Solution :

(0.496  0.502) (0.508  0.502)

P(0.496  z  0.508)  z
0.005 0.005

 1.2  z  1.2

Nondefective washers = (area under normal curve between z = -1.2 and 1.2)

= (twice the area between z = 0 and z = 1.2)

= 2(0.3849) = 0.7698 = 77%

Therefore, the percentage of defective washers is 100% - 77 % = 23%