TASK 1- Estimating interest rate for next years in USA ($)

Years Interest rates Inflation forecast GDP growth % Household income rate
2011 2.79 3.14 1.6 2.30
2012 1.80 2.07 2.2 3.06
2013 2.35 1.47 1.7 -1.3
2014 2.54 1.61 2.6 3.44
2015 2.14 0.12 2.9 3.97
2016 1.84 1.27 1.5 1.48
2017 2.33 2.14 2.1 2.47
2018 2.42 2.33 1.95 1.92
2019 2.36 2.08 2.00 2.03

NB! We took in consideration US interest rates, inflation forecast,

economic growth expressed by GDP growth and income rate
for household for 2011-2017.
Forecasting with trend modelling
Year IR
2018 2.42
2019 2.36

Source: https://data.oecd.org/price/inflation-forecast.htm?fbclid=IwAR2dokFM85Lz9mZlG-byEhJeRIr4EmMkftySNEsKsIHjBC
 SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.631010375
R Square 0.398174093
Adjusted R Square -0.20365181
Standard Error 0.394189951
Observations 7

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 3 0.3084142759 0.102804759 0.6616100905 0.6287469353
Residual 3 0.4661571526 0.155385718
Total 6 0.7745714286

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%

Intercept 0.794813638 1.3014013034 0.610736777 0.5845334048 -3.3468261317
Inflation forecast 0.332546326 0.2369298474 1.403564513 0.2550506744 -0.4214701916
GDP growth 0.541903714 0.5839421641 0.928009223 0.4218537961 -1.3164608685
Household income -0.10481111 0.1473033686 -0.71153231 0.5280919173 -0.5735961677
*All the values are outside of the interval [-2,2]

byEhJeRIr4EmMkftySNEsKsIHjBCoWmqS_L2-5TUA
 Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
4.9364534075 -3.34682613 4.9364534075
1.0865628433 -0.42147019 1.0865628433
2.4002682966 -1.31646087 2.4002682966
0.3639739547 -0.57359617 0.3639739547