Analiza seriilor cronologice

INDICATORII SERIILOR CRONOLOGICE

*,QGLFDWRULLDEVROX L

Indicatorii de nivel VXQW FKLDU WHUPHQLL XQHL VHULL IRUPDWH GLQ LQGLFDWRUL DEVROX L

(y1, ...yt, ..., yn.).

 n 
Nivelul totalizat al termenilor  ∑ yt  .
 t =1 
0RGLILF ULOH absolute
• FXED] IL[ ∆t/1):


∆t/1=yt - y1 , unde t = 2, n

• FXED] vQODQ  ∆t/t-1):

∆t/t-1=yt - yt-1 , unde t = 2, n

5HOD LLXWLOH :
m

∑∆t =2
t / t −1 = ∆m /1 , unde m≤n

∆t/1 - ∆t-1/1 = ∆t/t-1 , unde t = 3,n

*Indicatorii relativi

,QGLFHGHGLQDPLF 

• FXED] IL[ It/1):

yt
I t /1 = sau I t / 1(%) =
yt
⋅ 100 , unde t = 2, n
y1 y1

• FXED] vQODQ  (It/t-1):

yt yt
I t / t −1 = sau I t / t −1(%) = ⋅ 100 , unde t = 2, n
y t −1 y t −1

5HOD LLXWLOH :

∏I
t =2
t / t −1 = I m / 1 , unde m≤n

I t /1
= I t / t −1 , unde t = 3 , n
I t −1 / 1

5LWPXOGHGLQDPLF

• FXED] IL[ (Rt/1):

y t − y1
Rt 1 = ⋅ 100 sau Rt 1 = I t 1( % ) − 100 % , t = 2,n
y1

• FXED] vQODQ  (Rt/t-1):

yt − yt −1
Rt / t −1 = ⋅ 100 sau R t / t −1 = I t / t −1 (%) − 100% , t = 2, n
yt −1

9DORDUHDDEVROXW DXQXLSURFHQWGHGLQDPLF

• FXED] IL[ (At/1):

∆ t /1 y1
At / 1 = sau At / 1 =
Rt / 1 100

• FXED] vQODQ (At/t-1):

∆ t / t −1 y t −1
At / t −1 = sau At / t −1 =
Rt / t −1 100
 *Indicatorii medii
Nivelului mediu
• SHQWUXRVHULHFURQRORJLF GHLQWHUYDOHGHWLPSIRUPDWHGLQLQGLFDWRULDEVROX L

∑y t
y= t =1

n
• pentru o serie de momente cu intervale egale între momente (PHGLDFURQRORJLF VLPSO ):
y1 y
+ y 2 + y 3 + ... + y i +... + y n−1 + n
y cr = 2 2
n −1
• pentru o serie de momente cu intervale neegale între momente (mHGLD FURQRORJLF 

SRQGHUDW :

 d1   d1 + d 2   d i −1 + d i   d n−1 
y 1  + y2   + ... y i   + ... + y n  
      2 
 2   2   2   
y cr =
n−1
∑d i
i =1

'H UH LQXW F  SHQWUX VH ria de momente cu intervale neegale între datele înregistrate, media
FURQRORJLF SRQGHUDW HVWHVLQJXUXOLQGLFDWRUPHGLXFHFDUDFWHUL]HD] VHULD

0RGLILFDUHDPHGLHDEVROXW :

∆=
∑∆ t / t −1
sau ∆=
yn − y1
n −1 n −1
Indicele mediu deGLQDPLF (I ) :

yn
I = n −1 ∏ I t / t −1 sau I = n −1
y1
'DF  GLVSXQHP GH PDL PXO L LQGLFL PHGLL GH GLQDPLF  FH FDUDFWHUL]HD]  PDL PXOWH

VXESHULRDGH VXFFHVLYH GH WLPS LQGLFHOH PHGLX FH FDUDFWHUL]HD]  vQWUHDJD SHULRDG  VH FDOFXOHD] 

astfel:
k
∑ni ni nk
I = i =1
n1
⋅I2
n2
I1 ⋅ ... ⋅ I i ⋅ ... I k ,
în care:
I - LQGLFHOHPHGLXJHQHUDOGHGLQDPLF 

Ii - LQGLFLLPHGLLSDU LDOLGHGLQDPLF 
ni - QXP UXOLQGLFLORUFXED] vQODQ FHLQWU vQFRPSRQHQ DILHF UXLLQGLFHPHGLXSDU LDO

k - QXP UXOVXESHULRDGHORUDGLF DOLQGLFLORUPHGLLSDU LDOL

5LWPXOPHGLXGHGLQDPLF

R = (I (%) )− 100%
 AJUSTAREA SERIILOR CRONOLOGICE

(YROX LD RULF UXL IHQRPHQ vQ WLPS HVWH UH]XOWDQWD XQRU LQIOXHQ H GH QDWXU  VLVWHPDWLF  úL D

altora de tip aleator.

Componentele sistematice sunt:

• trendul WHQGLQ DJHQHUDO 
• sezonalitatea FDUH VH PDQLIHVW  VXE IRUP  GH DEDWHUL GH OD WHQGLQ D JHQHUDO  OD LQWHUYDOH

UHJXODWHGHWLPSPDLPLFLGHXQDQVHPHVWUXWULPHVWUXOXQ GHFDG 

• ciclicitatea FDUH VH SUH]LQW  VXE IRUP  GH IOXFWXD LL vQ MXUXO WHQGLQ HL vQUHJLVWUDWH OD

perioade mai mari de un an.

Componentele aleatoareVHPDQLIHVW VXEIRUPDXQRUDEDWHULvQWkPSO WRDUHGHODFHHDFHDUH

VLVWHPDWLFHYROX LDYDULDELOHLDQDOL]DWH

Prin DMXVWDUHD WHUPHQLORU XQHL VHULL GH GDWH VWDWLVWLFH VH vQ HOHJH RSHUD LD GH vQORFXLUH D

WHUPHQLORU UHDOL FX WHUPHQL WHRUHWLFL FH H[SULP  OHJLWDWHD VSHFLILF  GH GH]YROWDUH RELHFWLY  D

IHQRPHQHORUODFDUHVHUHIHU GDWHOH

'LVSHUVLDWRWDO (σ )
y VHFDOFXOHD] GXS IRUPXOD
2

∑ (y − y)
2

σ =
2 i
y
n

( )
Dispersia termenilor seriei de la valorile ajustate σ y / r  VLQWHWL]HD]  LQIOXHQ D IDFWRULORU
2

reziduali - IDFWRUL QHvQUHJLVWUD L - vQ FD]XO VHULLORU FURQRORJLFH WR L IDFWRULL FX H[FHS LD IDFWRUXOXL
WLPSúLVHFDOFXOHD] FXIRUPXOD

∑ (y )
2
− Yti
σ =
2 i
y/r ,
n

în care Y t i UHSUH]LQW YDORDUHDWHRUHWLF DYDULDELOHL y vQIXQF LHGHWLPS

Dispersia valorilor ajustate de la valoarea medie σ y2 / t sLQWHWL]HD]  YDULD LD SURGXV  QXPDL

de modificarea factorului timp:

∑ (Y )
2
−y
σ =
2 ti
y/t
n
Metode simple de ajustare a seriilor cronologice

Metoda mediilor mobile

6HIRORVHúWHSHQWUXVHULLOHFDUHSUH]LQW RVFLOD LLVH]RQLHUHúLFLFOLFH

Mediile mobileVXQWPHGLLSDU LDOHFDOFXODWHGLQWU-XQQXP USUHVWDELOLWGHWHUPHQLvQFDUHVH

vQORFXLHúWHSHUkQGSULPXOWHUPHQFXWHUPHQXOFHXUPHD] vQVHULDFDUHWUHEXLHV ILHDMXVWDW 

 ÌQSUDFWLF SXWHPFDOFXODPHGLLPRELOHGLQWU XQQXP ULPSDUGHWHUPHQLVDXGL
- ntr-XQQXP U

SDUGHWHUPHQLvQIXQF LHGHSHULRGLFLWDWHDLQIOXHQ HLIDFWRULORUVH]RQLHUL

Când ajustarea se face pe baza mediilor mobile calculate dintr-XQ QXP U SDU GH WHUPHQL

PHGLLOHPRELOHVHRE LQvQGRX WUHSWH

1) medii mobile provizorii Y ( )t FDUHVHSODVHD] vQWUHWHUPHQLLVHULHL

2) medii mobile definitive sau centrate Y ( ) t  FDUH VH SODVHD]  vQ GUHSWXO WHUPHQLORU VHULHL

úLUHSUH]LQW YDORULOHDMXVWDWHDOHWHUPHQLORUUHVSHFWLYLGLQVHULDLQL LDO 

0HWRGDJUDILF

AceVW SURFHGHX SUHVXSXQH UHSUH]HQWDUHD JUDILF  D VHULHL GH GDWH HPSLULFH SULQ FURQRJUDP 

KLVWRULRJUDP  XUPDW GH WUDVDUHD YL]XDO D GUHSWHL VDXFXUEHL DVWIHO vQFkW V DLE  DEDWHUL PLQLPH

ID GHSR]L LDYDORULORUUHDOHvQJUDILF

0HWRGDPRGLILF ULLPHGLL absolute

$MXVWDUHD SULQ DFHVW SURFHGHX VH IRORVHúWH DWXQFL FkQG SUHOXFUkQG VHULD GH GDWH VH RE LQ

PRGLILF ULDEVROXWHFXED] vQODQ DSURSLDWHFDYDORDUHXQHOHGHDOWHOH

)XQF LDGHDMXVWDUH

Y t = y 1 + ( t − 1) ∆ , unde t = 1, n

sau

Yti = y 0 + t i ∆ ,

unde:
y0UHSUH]LQW WHUPHQXOOXDWFDED] GHDMXVWDUHDFHDYDORDUHFDUH VHDSURSLHFHOPDL PXOWGH

GUHDSWDVDXFXUEDWUDVDW YL]XDOvQJUDILF

ti UHSUH]LQW YDULDELODGHWLPSvQUDSRUWFXED]DGHDMXVWDUHIRORVLW SR]L LDSHFDUHWHUPHQXO

UHVSHFWLYRDUHID GHWHUPHQXODOHVFDED] 

0HWRGDLQGLFHOXLPHGLXGHGLQDPLF 

$FHVWSURFHGHXVHIRORVHúWHDWXQFLFkQGWHUPHQLLVHULHLDXWHQGLQ DGHFUHúWHUHGHIRUPDXQHL

SURJUHVLLJHRPHWULFHvQFDUHUD LDSRDWHILFRQVLGHUDW FDHJDO FXLQGLFHOHPHGLXGHGLQDPLF  ( I ).

)XQF LDGHDMXVWDUH

Yt = y1 ⋅ I t −1
sau

Yti = y0 ⋅ I ti ,

unde:
y0UHSUH]LQW WHUPHQXOOXDWFDED] GHDMXVWDUH

ti UHSUH]LQW YDULDELODGHWLPSvQUDSRUWFXED]DGHDMXVWDUHIRORVLW SR]L LDSHFDUHWHUPHQXO

UHVSHFWLYRDUHID GHWHUPHQXODOHVFDED] 
 Metode analitice de ajustare

0HWRGHOH DQDOLWLFH DX OD ED]  XQ PRGHO PDWHPDWLF vQ FDUH WHQGLQ D FHQWUDO  D HYROX LHL VH

H[SULP FDRIXQF LHGHWLPS

y = f(t)QXPLW IXQF LHGHDMXVWDUH

în care:
t - UHSUH]LQW YDORULOHYDULDELOHLLQGHSHQGHQWHWLPSXO

y - UHSUH]LQW  YDORULOH YDULDELOHL GHSHQGHQWH IHQRPHQHOH FDUH VXQW SUH]HQWDWH vQ VHULD

FURQRORJLF 

$OHJHUHD WLSXOXL GH IXQF LH FDUH VH SRWULYHúWH FH l mai bine pentru exprimarea trendului se
IDFHSHED]DXUP WRDUHORUFULWHULLDSOLFDELOHRS LRQDO

• FULWHULXO ED]DW SH UHSUH]HQWDUHD JUDILF  6H FRQVWUXLHúWH FURQRJUDPD úL VH DSUHFLD] 

IRUPDWHQGLQ HLGHHYROX LH

• FULWHULXO GLIHUHQ HORU 6H SURFHGHD]  OD FDOFXOXO GLIHUHQ HORU DEVROXWH FX ED]  vQ ODQ  GH

RUGLQXO XQX GRL HWF SkQ  FkQG RE LQHP GLIHUHQ HOH GH RUGLQ i aproximativ constante
DMXVWDUHDI FkQGX VHGXS SROLQRPXOGHJUDGXO
- i.

'DF  IHQRPHQXO FHUFHWDW V D GH]YROWDW vQ SURJUHVLH JHRPHWULF  DGLF  LQGLFLL FX ED]  vQ ODQ 
-
VXQW FRQVWDQ L  It/t-1  FRQVWDQW DGPLWHP F  VHULD FURQRORJLF  UHVSHFWLY  SUH]LQW  R WHQGLQ 

H[SRQHQ LDO 

ÌQ XUPD DOHJHULL IXQF LHL GH DMXVWDUH GXS  FULWHULLOH SUH]HQWDWH VH LPSXQH HVWLPDUHD

SDUDPHWULORU DFHVWRU IXQF LL XWLOL]kQG PHWRGD FHORU PDL PLFL S WUDWH $FHDVW  PHWRG  DUH FD IXQF LH

RELHFWLYPLQLPL]DUHDVXPHLS WUDWHORUDEDWHULORUYDORULORUUHDOHGHODFHOHDMXVWDWHGHFL

(
min ∑ y i − Yti )
2
, unde ti= 1, 2, ... , n

Trend liniar

Y t i = a + bt i ,

în care:

Yt i - UHSUH]LQW YDORULOHDMXVWDWHFDOFXODWHvQIXQF LHGHYDORULOHFDUDFWHULVWLFLLIDFWRULDOH ti);

a - UHSUH]LQW SDUDPHWUXOFDUHDUHVHQVGHP ULPHPHGLHúLDUDW FHQLYHODUILDWLQV yGDF 

LQIOXHQ D WXWXURU IDFWRULORU FX H[FHS LD FHOXL vQUHJLVWUDW DU IL IRVW FRQVWDQW  SH WRDW 

perioada;
b - UHSUH]LQW SDUDPHWUXOFDUHVLQWHWL]HD] QXPDLLQIOXHQ DFDUDFWHULVWLFLLIDFWRULDOH t);
ti - UHSUH]LQW  YDORULOH FDUDFWHULVWLFLL IDFWRULDOH FDUH vQ FD]XO VHULLORU FURQRORJLFH HVWH

timpul.

Parametrii a úL b VH GHWHUPLQ  SULQ UH]ROYDUHD VLVWHPXOXL GH HFXD LL QRUPDOH RE LQXW SULQ
PHWRGDFHORUPDLPLFLS WUDWH ∑ [ y
i − ( a + bt i ) ] = min ):
2

 na + b ∑ t i = ∑ y i

 a ∑ t i + b ∑ t i = ∑ t i y i
2
 Pentru ∑t i VLVWHPXOGHHFXD LLQRUPDOHGHYLQH


a =
∑ yi
na = ∑ y i  n
 , de unde 
b∑ t i = ∑ t i y i b = ∑ t i y i
2


 ∑ t i2
ÌQORFXLQG YDORULOH FDOFXODWH DOH FHORU GRL SDUDPHWUL vQ HFXD LD GH UHJUHVLH úL DSRL vQORFXLQG

VXFFHVLYYDORULOHYDULDELOHLWLPSVHRE LQYDORULOHDMXVWDWHDOHFDUDFWHULVWLFLLUH]XOWDWLYH

Verificarea coUHFWLWXGLQLLFDOFXO ULLHFXD LLORUGHUHJUHVLHVHIDFHSHED]DUHOD LHL

∑Y ti = ∑ yi .

Trend parabolic

Y t i = a + bt i + ct i2

3XQkQG DFHHDúL FRQGL LH FD VXPD S WUDWHORU DEDWHULORU WHUPHQLORU VHULHL GH OD YDORULOH

WHRUHWLFHV ILHPLQLP VHRE LQH

∑(y i − (a + bt i + ct i2 )) 2 = minim

LDUVLVWHPXOGHHFXD LLQRUPDOH

na + b∑ t i + c ∑ t i2 = ∑ y i

a ∑ t i + b ∑ t i + c ∑ t i = ∑ t i y i
2 3


a ∑ t i + b∑ t i + c ∑ t i = ∑ t i y i
2 3 4 2

Pentru ∑t i FD]vQFDUHúL ∑t 3
i VLVWHPXOGHHFXD LLQRUPDOHGHYLQH

na + c ∑ t i2 = ∑ y i

b∑ t i = ∑ t i y i
2


a ∑ t i + c ∑ t i = ∑ t i y i
2 4 2

Rezolvând sistemul de HFXD LL QRUPDOH VH FDOFXOHD]  YDORDUHD FHORU WUHL SDUDPHWUL úL vQ

IXQF LHGHYDORULOHLQGLYLGXDOHDOHYDULDELOHL VHDMXVWHD] YDORULOHFDUDFWHULVWLFLLUH]XOWDWLYH

t

Trend hiperbolic

1
Yti = a + b
ti
 6LVWHPXOGHHFXD LLHVWH

 1
na + b∑ t = ∑ y i
 i

a ∑ 1 + b ∑ 1 = ∑ 1 y
 ti t i2 ti
i

7UHQGH[SRQHQ LDO

Yti = a ⋅ b ti

3ULQORJDULWPDUHPRGHOXOVHWUDQVIRUP vQWU -un model liniar de forma:

lg Yti = lg a + t i lg b

6LVWHPXOGHHFXD LLQRUPDOHYDIL

 n lg a + lg b ⋅ ∑ t i = ∑ lg y i


 lg a ⋅ ∑ t i + lg b ⋅ ∑ t i2 = ∑ ( t i ⋅ lg y i )

2SHUD LD GH DMXVWDUH vQ DFHVW FD] VH YD IDFH GXS  FH VH YRU FDOFXOD ORJDULWPLL HFXD LLORU

LQGLYLGXDOH GH DMXVWDUH $MXVWDUHD GXS  R IXQF LH H[SRQHQ LDO  VH IDFH SULQ DQWLORJDULWPDUHD

HFXD LLORUGHDMXVWDUHFDOFXODWHvQIXQF LHGH ti.

Criterii de alegere a procedeelor de ajustare

a) 6H FDOFXOHD]  VXPD DEDWHULORU OXDWH vQ YDORDUH DEVROXW  GLQWUH GDWHOH HPSLULFH úL FHOH

ajustate yt − Yt  6H FRQVLGHU  FHO PDL SRWULYLW SURFHGHXO OD FDUH VH RE LQH

∑y t − Yt = min .

b) 6HFDOFXOHD] FRHILFLHQWXOGHYDULD LH

d y/t
V y′/ t = ⋅100
y

în care d y / t  UHSUH]LQW  DEDWHUHD PHGLH OLQLDU  D YDORULORU UHDOH GH OD YDORULOH DMXVWDWH

FDOFXODW GXS IRUPXOD

d y/t =
∑y t − Yti
n
 EXTRAPOLAREA SERIILOR CRONOLOGICE

Extrapolarea datelor unei serii statistiFH DUH OD ED]  PHWRGHOH úL SURFHGHHOH IRORVLWH OD
ajustare.
3HQWUX D IDFH GLVWLQF LH vQWUH WHUPHQLL DMXVWD L  Y
t i  úL FHL H[WUDSROD L - FDUH VXQW FRQVLGHUD L

tot termenii teoretici -VHYRUQRWDWHUPHQLLH[WUDSROD LFX Yt′i , iar variabila de timp cu ti’.

Deci, formulele de calcul vor fi:

• pentru extrapolarea pe baza sporului mediu:

Yt′i = y 0 + t i’∆

• SHQWUXH[WUDSRODUHDSHED]DLQGLFHOXLPHGLXGHFUHúWHUH

t i’
Y t′i = y 0 ⋅ I

$FHVWH IRUPXOH VH DSOLF  DWXQ ci când se folosesc valorile parametrilor ( ∆ , I ) din perioada
H[SLUDW ÌQFD]XOFkQGDFHúWLDVHPRGLILF SDUDPHWULLVHPRGLILF FXXQFRHILFLHQW k, astfel:

Yt′i = y 0 + t i’∆ ′ , în care: ∆ ’= k ⋅ ∆

′
 ′  i
t
Y t′i = y 0 ⋅  I  , în care: I ′ = kI
 
Coeficientul kSRDWHV ILHPDLPDUHVDXPDLPLFGHFkW
'DF  k<1, DWXQFL vQVHDPQ  F  VH UHGXFH YDULD LD PHGLH DEVROXW  VDX UHODWLY  GXS  FXP VH

DSOLF ODSULPXOVDXODDOGRLOHDSURFHGHX

'DF  k>1, atunci înseaPQ  F  YDORDUHD SDUDPHWULORU IRORVL L vQ H[WUDSRODUH HVWH PDL PDUH

decât în perioada de analizat.

3HQWUXH[WUDSRODUHDSHED]DPHWRGHORUDQDOLWLFHGHFDOFXOVHSXQHvQSULPXOUkQGFRQGL LDFD

GDWHOH V  VH GHWHUPLQH DVWIHO vQFkW V  QX PRGLILFH RULJLQHD YDULD LHL GH WLPS FDUH HVWH vQ PLMORFXO

VHULHL FURQRORJLFH úL SHQWUX FDUH Σti = 0. 'HFL YDULD LD GH WLPS VH H[WLQGH vQ DPEHOH VHQVXUL GHúL

LQWHUHVHD] QXPDLWHQGLQ DRE LQXW SULQH[WLQGHUHDVHULHLSHQWUXSHULRDGDXUP WRDUH

ùL vQ DFHVW FD] VH YRU IRORVL DFHOHDúL QRWD LL DGLF  WHUPHQLL H[WUDSROD L VH YRU QRWD FX Yti′ ,
astfel:
Yt′i = a + bt i’

Yt′i = ab ti′

Yt′i = a + bt i′ + ct i′
2

'DF IHQRPHQHOHVHDQDOL]HD]  vQLQWHUGHSHQGHQ FX YDULD LDIDFWRULORU FDUHOHGHWHUPLQ  în

GLQDPLF  DWXQFL VH DOHJ FDUDFWHULVWLFLOH IDFWRULDOH FDUH VXQW SUHYL]LELOH QXPDL vQ IXQF LH GH WLPS úL

DSRL DSUHFLLQG F  V DU S VWUD DFHHDúL WHQGLQ

-  GH UHDOL]DUH D OHJ WXULL VH FDOFXOHD]  YDORULOH GH

SHUVSHFWLY  úL SHQWUX FDUDFWHULVWLFD GHSHQGHQW  'H H[HPSOX SHQWUX R FDUDFWHULVWLF  UH]XOWDWLY 
DQDOL]DW vQIXQF LHGHGRLIDFWRULFXFDUHHVWHOHJDW OLQLDUVHFDOFXOHD] PDLvQWkLHFXD LDPHGLHGH

WHQGLQ SHSHULRDGDH[SLUDW DGLF 

Yt = a0 + a1x1 + a2x2

în care x1, x2 sunt variabile factoriale luate în timp.

6HSDUDW VH DQDOL]HD]  WHQGLQ D GH GH]YROWDUH D ILHF UHL YDULDELOH LQGHSHQGHQWH úL VH

H[WUDSROHD] FHOHGRX VHULL

X 1′ = a x1 + bx1 t ′

X 2′ = a x2 + bx2 t ′

$FHVWH YDORUL VH LQWURGXF vQ HFXD LD IXQF LHL GH UHJUHVLH PXOWLSO  calculându-se valorile
H[WUDSRODWHDOHYDULDELOHL<GXS YDORULOHPRGLILFDWHDOHFHORUGRLIDFWRUL

Yx′1 x2 = a 0 + a1 x1′ + a 2 x ′2

PROBLEME REZOLVATE

1.
$QDOL]DVWDWLVWLF DXQHLVHULLFURQRORJLFHGHLQWHUYDOH

3URGXF LDLQWHUQ GHDOXPLQLXDvQUHJLVW rat în perioada 1992-XUP WRDUHOHYDORUL

Tabelul 6.1.

Anul 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
3URGXF LDGH

aluminiu 120 116 122 144 145 164 175 176 178
(mii tone)
Sursa: Revista „Capital” nr. 23 din 7 iunie 2001.

Se cere:

1. V VHFDUDFWHUL]H]HHYROX LDSURGXF LHLGHDOXPLQLXIRORVLQGLQGLFDWRULL

• DEVROX L

• relativi;
• medii;
2. V VHUHSUH]LQWHJUDILFVHULDYDORULORUDEVROXWH

3. V VHGHWHUPLQHWUHQGXOGHHYROX LHSHED]DPHWRGHORUPHFDQLFHúLDQDOLWLFH

4. V VHDOHDJ FHDPDLDGHFYDW PHWRG FDUHDMXVWHD] IHQRPHQXOúLV VHH[WUDSROH]HVHULD

SHQWUXDQLLúL
Rezolvare:

1. &DOFXOXOLQGLFDWRULORUDEVROX L :

Nivelul absolut ( y t ) este reprezentat de termenii seriei (vezi tabelul 6.1.).

n
Nivelul totalizat: ∑ yt
t =1
0RGLILFDUHDDEVROXW  ( ∆ ):
¾FXED] IL[  (∆ t 1 ):
∆t 1 = y t − y 1 (tabelul 6.2., coloana 2)
∆2 1 = y 2 − y 1 = 116 − 120 = − 4 (mii tone)

∆9 1 = y 9 − y 1 = 178 − 120 = 58 (mii tone)

¾FXED] vQODQ  (∆ t t −1 ):
∆t t −1 = y t − y t −1 (tabelul 6.2., coloana 3)
∆2 1 = y 2 − y 1 = 116 − 120 = − 4 (mii tone)

∆9 1 = y 9 − y 8 = 178 − 176 = 2 (mii tone)

5HOD LLOHvQWUH ∆t t −1 úL ∆ t 1:

¾ ∑∆ t t −1 =∆t 1
∆2 1 +∆3 2 ++ ∆ 9 8 = ∆9 1

− 4 + 6 + 22 + 1 + 19 + 11 + 1 + 2 = 58

¾ ∆t 1 − ∆ t −1 1 = ∆t t −1
∆9 1 −∆8 1 = ∆9 8

58 − 56 = 2

Tabelul 6.2.
0RGLILFDUHDDEVROXW PLLWRQH
3URGXF LD
FXED] IL[ FXED] vQODQ
Anul
(mii tone)
∆t 1 = y t − y1 ∆t t −1 = y t − y t −1
A 1 2 3
1992 120 - -
1993 116 -4 -4
1994 122 2 6
1995 144 24 22
1996 145 25 1
1997 164 44 19
1998 175 55 11
1999 176 56 1
2000 178 58 2
Total 1340 - 58
 Calculul indicatorilor relativi:

,QGLFHOHGHGLQDPLF FUHúWHUHGHVFUHúWHUH ( I ):
¾FXED] IL[  ( I t 1 ) (vezi tabelul 6.3., coloana 2)
yt
I t 1( % ) = ⋅ 100
y1
116
I 2 1( % ) = ⋅ 100 = 96 , 66%
120

178
I 9 1( % ) = ⋅ 100 = 148 , 33%
120

¾FXED] vQODQ  (I t t −1 ) (vezi tabelul 6.3., coloana 3)

yt
It t −1( % ) = ⋅ 100
y t −1

116
I 2 1( % ) = ⋅ 100 = 96 , 66%
120


178
I 9 8( % ) = ⋅ 100 = 101 , 14%
176

5HOD LLOHvQWUH úL

It 1 It t −1 :

¾ ∏It = It 1
t −1
0 , 9666 ⋅ 1 , 0517 ⋅  ⋅ 1 , 0114 ≅ 1 , 4833

¾ It 1 : I t −1 1 = It t −1

I9 1 : I8 1 = I9 8
1,4833 : 1,4666 ≅ 1 , 0114
Tabelul 6.3.
9DORDUHDDEVROXW D

Indicele de dinDPLF Ritmul 1%

din ritm
3URGXF LD
Anul FXED] IL[ FXED] vQODQ FXED]  FXED] vQ
(mii tone) FXED] IL[ FXED] vQODQ IL[ ODQ

It 1 =
yt
I t t −1 =
yt
( ) ( )
R t 1 = I t 1 − 1 ⋅ 100 R t t −1 = I t t −1 − 1 ⋅ 100
At 1 =
y1
A t t −1 =
y t −1
y1 y t −1
100 100
A 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1992 120 - 1,0000 - - - -
1993 116 0,9666 0,9666 -3,34 -3.34 1,2 1,20
1994 122 1,0166 1,0517 1,66 5,17 1,2 1,16
1995 144 1,2000 1,1803 20,00 18,03 1,2 1,22
1996 145 1,2083 1,0069 20,83 0,69 1,2 1,44
1997 164 1,3666 1,1310 36,66 13,1 1,2 1,45
1998 175 1,4583 1,0670 45,83 6,70 1,2 1,64
1999 176 1,4666 1,0057 46,66 0,57 1,2 1,75
2000 178 1,4833 1,0114 48,33 1,14 1,2 1,76
Total 1340 - - - - - -
Ritmul de modificare (FUHúWHUHGHVFUHúWHUH5:

¾FXED] IL[  Rt (vezi tabelul 6.3., coloana 4)

1
∆t
Rt 1 =
y1
1
⋅ 100 = I t ( 1 )
− 1 ⋅ 100

R2 1 = ( 0 , 9666 − 1 )⋅ 100 = −3 , 34%

R9 1 = (1 , 4833 − 1 )⋅ 100 = 48 , 33%

¾FXED] vQODQ YH]LWDEHOXOFRORDQD

∆t
Rt t −1 =
y t −1
t −1
⋅ 100 = I t ( t −1 )
− 1 ⋅ 100

R2 1 = ( 0 , 9666 − 1 )⋅ 100 = −3 , 34%

R9 8 = (1 , 0114 − 1 )⋅ 100 = 1 , 14%

9DORDUHDDEVROXW DXQXLSURFHQWGLQULWPXOPRGLILF ULL$

¾FXED] IL[  At (vezi tabelul 6.3., coloana 6)

1
∆t 1 y1
At 1 = =
Rt 1 100
120
A2 1 = = 1 , 2 mii tone
100

120
A9 1 = = 1 , 2 mii tone
100

¾FXED] vQODQ  At (vezi tabelul 6.3., coloana 7)

t −1
∆t t −1 y t −1
At t −1 = =
Rt t −1 100
120
A2 1 = = 1 , 2 mii tone
100

176
A9 1 = = 1 , 76 mii tone
100
 Calculul indicatorilor medii

Nivelul mediu y : ( )
6HULDFURQRORJLF SUH]HQWDW HVWHRVHULHGHLQWHUYDOHSHQWUXFDUHQLYH lul mediu se
FDOFXOHD] DSOLFkQGIRUPXODPHGLHLDULWPHWLFH

n
∑ yt
t =1 1340
y= = ≅ 148 , 89 mii tone
n 9

3URGXF LDPHGLHDQXO GHDOXPLQLXDIRVWGHPLLWRQH

0RGLILFDUHDPHGLHDEVROXW  (∆ ):

∆=
∑∆ t t −1
=
∆n 1
=
58
= 7 , 25 mii tone
n −1 n −1 8

În medie creúWHUHDDQXDO vQSHULRDGD -2000 a fost de 7,25 mii tone.

Indicele mediu

I = n−1 ∏It t −1 = n −1 I n 1 = 8 1 , 4833 = 1 , 0505 sau 105,05%

Ritmul mediu

( )
R = I − 1 ⋅ 100 = (1 , 0505 − 1 )⋅ 100 = 5 , 05%

3URGXF LDV -a modificat în medie cu 5,05% anual.

2. 3HQWUXUHSUH]HQWDUHDJUDILF DVHULHLVHFRQVWUXLHúWHFURQRJUDPDKLVWRULRJUDPD

190
180

170


160


150
 


140
 
130


120

110
100
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
anii

)LJXUD'LQDPLFDSURGXF LHLGHDOXPLQLXD5RPkQLHLvQDQLL -2000

 3. 'HWHUPLQDUHDWUHQGXOXLWHQGLQ HLJHQHUDOH

Metode mecanice

0HWRGDPRGLILF ULLPHGLLDEVROXWH

Pentru ajustarea termHQLORUVHXWLOL]HD] UHOD LD

Y t = y 1 + ∆ ⋅ (t − 1 )

Metoda indicelui mediu:

Yt = y1 ⋅ I( ) t −1

5H]XOWDWHOHRE LQXWHSULYLQGDMXVWDUHDWHUPHQLORUSULQDFHVWHGRX PHWRGHVXQWSUH]HQWDWH

vQWDEHOXOFRORDQHOHúL

Tabelul 6.4.

Valori ajustate prin:

yt PRGLILFDUHDPHGLHLDEVROXW indicele mediu
( )(
Anul
t −1 )
Y t = y 1 + ∆ ⋅ (t − 1 ) Yt = y1 ⋅ I
A 1 2 3
1992 120 Y 1 = 120 + 7 , 25 ⋅ 0 = 120 Y 1 = 120
1993 116 Y 2 = 120 + 7 , 25 ⋅ 1 = 127 , 25 Y 2 = 120 ⋅ 1 , 0505 = 126 , 06

1994 122 Y 3 = 120 + 7 , 25 ⋅ 2 = 134 , 5 Y 3 = 120 ⋅ 1 , 0505

2
= 132 , 43

1995 144 Y 4 = 120 + 7 , 25 ⋅ 3 = 141 , 75 Y 4 = 120 ⋅ 1 , 0505

3
= 139 , 1

1996 145 Y 5 = 120 + 7 , 25 ⋅ 4 = 149 , 0 Y 5 = 120 ⋅ 1 , 0505

4
= 146 , 14

1997 164 Y 6 = 120 + 7 , 25 ⋅ 5 = 156 , 25 Y 6 = 120 ⋅ 1 , 0505

5
= 153 , 52

1998 175 Y 7 = 120 + 7 , 25 ⋅ 6 = 163 , 5 Y 7 = 120 ⋅ 1 , 0505

6
= 161 , 27

1999 176 Y 8 = 120 + 7 , 25 ⋅ 7 = 170 , 25 Y 8 = 120 ⋅ 1 , 0505

7
= 169 , 42

2000 178 Y 9 = 120 + 7 , 25 ⋅ 8 = 178 Y 9 = 120 ⋅ 1 , 0505

8
= 178
Total 1340 1340,5 1325,95

Metode analitice

'LQFURQRJUDPDSUH]HQWDW ILJ VHREVHUY F DMXVWDUHDVHSRDWHIDFHSULQPHWRGD

OLQLDU úLSHED]DSDUDEROHLGHJUDGXOGRL

3HQWUXDMXVWDUHDOLQLDU VHXWLOL]HD] UHOD LD

Yt = a + b t i
 Pentru calculul parametrilor aúLbVHDSOLF meWRGDFHORUPDLPLFLS WUDWH :

∑ [Y t − ( a + b ⋅ t i )]
2
= min

6LVWHPXOGHHFXD LLHVWH

 n a + b ∑t i = ∑ y i


 a ∑ t i + b ∑ t i2 = ∑ t i y i

'DF VHSXQHFRQGL LDFD ∑t i = 0 sistemul devine:

na = ∑ yi


 b ∑ t i2 = ∑ t i y i

a=
∑ yi ; b=
∑t i y i
n ∑ t i2
&DOFXOHOHQHFHVDUHUH]ROY ULLVLVWHPXOXLVXQWSUH]HQWDW e în tabelul 6.5.

 9 a = 1340

 60 b = 538

1340
a= = 148 , 89 ; b = 8 , 96
9

Deci:

Y i = 148 , 89 + 8 , 96 t i

Valorile ajustate sunt prezentate în tabelul 6.5., coloana 7.

Tabelul 6.5.
Valori ajustate prin
Anul yi ti t i2 t i4 ti yi t i2 y i IXQF LD

OLQLDU SDUDEROLF

A 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
1992 120 -4 16 256 -480 1920 113,05 111,83
1993 116 -3 9 81 -348 1044 122,00 121,77
1994 122 -2 4 16 -244 488 131,69 132,03
1995 144 -1 1 1 -144 144 139,93 140,66
1996 145 0 0 0 0 0 148,89 149,75
1997 164 1 1 1 164 164 157,85 158,58
1998 175 2 4 16 350 700 166,09 166,43
1999 176 3 9 81 528 1584 175,77 175,53
2000 178 4 16 256 712 2848 188,73 183,51
Total 1340 ∑t i =0 ∑ t i2 = 60 ∑ t i4 = 708 ∑ t i y i = 538 ∑ t i y i = 8892
2
∑Y i = 1340 ∑Y i = 1340
 Pentru trendul parabolic rela LDHVWH

Y i = a + b t i + c t i2

6LVWHPXOGHHFXD LLQRUPDOHSHQWUXFDOFXODUHDSDUDPHWULORU

 n a + b ∑ t i + c ∑ t i2 = ∑ y i


 a ∑t i + b ∑t i + c ∑t i = ∑t i y i
2 3


 a ∑ t i2 + b ∑ t i3 + c ∑ t i4 = ∑ t i2 y i


'DF  ∑t i = 0 , sistemul devine:

 n a + c ∑ t i2 = ∑ y i


 b ∑t i = ∑t i y i
2


 a ∑ t i2 + c ∑ t i4 = ∑ t i2 y i


Calculele sunt prezentate în tabelul 6.5.

Deci:

 9 a + 60 c = 1340  a = 149 , 75
 
 60 b = 538 ⇔  b = 8 , 96
 
 60 a + 708 c = 8892  c = − 0 , 13

(FXD LDSHQWUXDMXVWDUHDSULQWUHQGXOSDUDEROLFHVWH

Y t i = 149 , 75 + 8 , 96 t i − 0 , 13 t i2

Valorile ajustate sunt prezentate în tabelul 6.5., coloana 8.

4. &ULWHULLOH IRORVLWH SHQWUX DOHJHUHD PHWRGHL FDUH DMXVWHD]  FHO PDL ELQH VHULD SUH]HQWDW 

sunt:
 n  n
• compararea volumului total empiric  ∑ y i  cu cel teoretic
 ∑Yt ;
 i =1 
i
i =1
• FRPSDUDUHDDEDWHULORUDEVROXWHDOHYDORULORUWHRUHWLFHDMXVWDWHID GHFHOHHPSLULFH

n
∑ y i − Yti
i =1
 • FRPSDUDUHDS WUDWHORUDEDWHULORUGLQWUHYDORULOHHPSLULFHúLFHOHWHRUHWLFH

∑(y i )
n
− Yt i
2

i =1

• FRPSDUDUHDFRHILFLHQ LORUGHYDULD LHFDOFXOD LGXS UHOD LLOH

∑(y i )
n
− Yt i 2

i =1
σ yi n
v= ⋅ 100 = ⋅ 100 sau
y y
n
∑ y i − Yt i
i =1
d yi n
v′ = ⋅ 100 = ⋅ 100 ,
y y
n
∑ yi
i =1
unde y = .
n

Calculele necesare sunt prezentate în tabelul 6.6..

6H UH LQH PHWRGD PRGHOXO GH DMXVWDUH SHQWUX FDUH FRHILFLHQWXO GH YDULD LH HVWH FHO PDL PLF

(tabelul 6.7.).
 &DOFXOXOFRHILFLHQWXOXLGHYDULD LH

Tabelul 6.7.

σ
∑(y i ) yi
Nr.
Metoda de ajustare prin: − Yt
2
σ yt V yt = ⋅ 100
crt. i
y
1 PRGLILFDUHDPHGLHDEVROXW 523,80 7,62 5,12
2 indicele mediu 576,83 8,01 5,37
3 trend liniar 442,40 7,01 4,71
4 trend parabolic 367,76 6,39 4,30

([WUDSRODUHD SUHYL]LRQDUHD SURGXF LHL GH DOXPLQLX SHQWUX XUP WRULL  DQL VH IDFH LQkQG

FRQWF VXQWDFHOHDúLFRQGL LL9DORULOHH[WUDSRODWHSULQPHWRGHOHIRORVLWHODDMXVWDUHVXQWSUH]HQWDWH

în tabelul 6.8..

Tabelul 6.8.

Nr. Metoda de Anii

crt. ajustare prin: 2001 2002
A 1 2 3
1 modificarea medie Y 2001 = 120 + 7 , 25 ⋅ 9 = 185 , 25 Y 2002 = 120 + 7 , 25 ⋅ 10 = 192 , 5
DEVROXW

2 indicele mediu Y 2001 = 120 ⋅ (1 , 0505 )9 = 186 , 99 Y 2002 = 120 ⋅ (1 , 0505 )10 = 196 , 43

3 IXQF LDOLQLDU Y 2001 = 148 , 89 + 8 , 96 ⋅ 5 = 193 , 69 Y 2002 = 148 , 89 + 8 , 96 ⋅ 6 = 202 , 65

4 IXQF LDSDUDEROLF Y 2001 = 149 , 75 + 8 , 96 ⋅ 5 − 0 , 13 ⋅ 25 = 189 , 5 Y 2002 = 149 , 75 + 8 , 96 ⋅ 6 − 0 , 13 ⋅ 36 = 198 , 83

 2.
Se cunRVF XUP WRDUHOH GDWH SULYLQG YDORDUHD H[SRUWXULORU OD SURGXVHOH GLQ OHPQ vQ SHULRDGD

1991-1998:

Tabelul 6.9.

Anul 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

0RGLILF UL

ID GHDQXO
40 22 45 36 38 42 47
precendent
(mil. $)

Se cere:

1. V  VH UHFRQVWLWXLH VHULD GH YDORUL DEVROXWH úWLLQG F  YDORDUHD H[SRUWXOXL D FUHVFXW vQ

perioada 1991-1998, în medie, cu 18,84%;

2. V VHFDOFXOH]HLQGLFDWRULLPHGLLúLV VHLQWHUSUHWH]H

3. V VHDMXVWH]HVHULDSULQWU -un procedeu analitic;

4. V VHFDOFXOH]HFRHILFLHQWXOGHYDULD LH

Rezolvare:

1. 'LQGDWHOHSUH]HQWDWHUH]XOW F 

n
∑∆ t t −1 = y t − y 1 = y 1998 − y 1991
t =2

40 + 22 + 45 + 36 + 38 + 42 + 47 = 270

'HDVHPHQHDVHúWLHF 

R = 18 , 84 % ⇒ I ( % ) = R + 100 = 18 , 84 + 100 = 118 , 84%

y 98 y 98
I = n−1 =7 = 1 , 1884
y 91 y 91

Deci:

 y 1998 − y 1991 = 270

  y 1991 = 115 mil.$
 y 1998 ⇒ 
 = (1 , 1884 ) 7 = 3 , 3478  y 1998 = 385 mil. $
 y 1991
 7HUPHQLLVHULHLVHFDOFXOHD] DVWIHO

y 1991 = 115

y 1992 = 115 + 40 = 155

y 1997 = 296 + 42 = 338

y 1998 = 338 + 47 = 385

6HULDUHFRQVWLWXLW HVWHSUH]HQWDW vQWDEHOXO

Tabelul 6.10.

Anul 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Export
produse din 115 155 177 222 258 296 338 385
lemn (mil. $)

2. Indicatorii medii

• PRGLILFDUHDPHGLHDEVROXW 

n
∑∆ t t −1
y n − y1 y 1998 − y 1991
t =2 385 − 115
∆= = = = = 38 , 57 mil. $
n −1 n −1 8 −1 7

Exportul a crescut în medie cu 47,5 mil. lei.

• nivelul mediu:

n
∑ yt
t =1 1946
y= = = 243 , 25 mil. $
n 8

ÌQDFHDVW SHULRDG V -au exportat în medie, anual, produse în valoare de 243,25 mil. $.

5LWPXOPHGLXDIRVWGDWúLSHED]DOXLV -a calculat indicele mediu.

3. 3HQWUXDMXVWDUHDSULQPHWRGDDQDOLWLF VHFRQVWUXLHúWHFURQRJUDPDKLVWRULRJUDPD

450
400
350

exportul (mil. $)
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
anii

Figura 6.2.

*UDILFXOVXJHUHD] XQWUHQGOLQLDU

(FXD LDGUHSWHL

Yt i = a + bt i

6LVWHPXOGHHFXD LLQRUPDOH :

 n a + b ∑t i = ∑ y i


 a ∑ t i + b ∑ t i2 = ∑ t i y i

&XFRQGL LDFD ∑t i = 0 VLVWHPXOGHHFXD LLGHYLQH

na = ∑ yi


 b ∑ t i2 = ∑ t i y i

 n
 ∑ yi
 i =1 1946
 a = n = 8 = 243 , 25


 b = ∑ y i t i = 3198 = 19 , 04

 ∑ t i2 168
 &DOFXOHOHQHFHVDUHGHWHUPLQ ULLSDUDPHWULORUúLYDORULOHDMXVWDWHWHRUHWLFHVXQWSUH]HQWDWHvQ

tabelul 6.11.

Tabelul 6.11.

Anii yi ti t i2 yi ti Y t i = 243 , 25 + 19 , 04 t i (y i − Yt i )2

0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1991 115 -7 49 805 109,97 25,3
1992 155 -5 25 775 148,05 48,3
1993 177 -3 9 531 186,13 83,36
1994 222 -1 1 222 224,21 4,88
1995 258 1 1 258 262,29 18,4
1996 296 3 9 888 300,37 19,1
1997 338 5 25 1690 338,45 0,2
1998 385 7 49 2695 376,53 71,74
Total ∑ yi = 1946 ∑t i =0 ∑ t i2 = 168 ∑ yi ti = 3198 ∑Yt i
= 1946 ∑(y i − Yt i )= 271 , 28
4. &DOFXOXOFRHILFLHQWXOXLGHFRUHOD LHVHIDFHFXDMXWRUXOUHOD LHL

v yt =
σ Yt
⋅ 100 , unde σ =
∑(yi − Yt i )
2

= 5 , 82
yt
Y n

3HQWUXDEDWHUHDHURDUHDPHGLHS WUDWLF FDOFXOHOHVX nt prezentate în tabelul 6.11, coloana 6.

5 , 82
v yt = ⋅ 100 = 2 , 39 %
243 , 25

3.
6H FXQRVF XUP WRDUHOH GDWH FX SULYLUH OD vQ]HVWUDUHD SRSXOD LHL FX EXQXUL GH IRORVLQ 

vQGHOXQJDW DXWRPRELOHORFXLWRULvQSHULRDGD –1998.

Tabelul 6.12.

Anul 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

0RGLILF UL

DEVROXWHID GH
6,5 8,3 9,3 7,3 8,2 8,9 8,9 6,7
anul precedent
(buc.)
0RGLILF UL

UHODWLYHID GH
10,58 12,22 12,20 8,54 8,84 8,81 8,10 5,64
anul precedent
(%)
 Se cere:

1. V VHUHFRQVWLWXLHVHULDGHYDORU i absolute;
2. V VHFDOFXOH]HWR LLQGLFDWRULLDEVROX LúLUHODWLYL

Rezolvare:

1. 3HQWUX UHFRQVWLWXLUHD VHULHL FURQRORJLFH VH XWLOL]HD]  UHOD LD vQWUH PRGLILFDUHD DEVROXW 

PRGLILFDUHDUHODWLY úLYDORDUHDDEVROXW DXQXLSURFHQWGLQULWPXOPRGLILF ULL

∆t t −1 y t −1
At t −1 = =
Rt t −1 ⋅ 100 100

De exemplu,

∆ 92 91 y 91
A 92 91 = =
R 92 91 100

6,5 y 91
A 92 91 = = 0 , 614 =
10 , 58 100

y 91 = 0 , 614 ⋅ 100 = 61 , 4 buc

Pentru anul 1999 valoarea indicatorului se poate calcula astfel:

y 99 = y 98 + ∆ 99 98 = 118 , 8 + 6 , 7 = 125 , 5

sau

y 99 = y 98 ⋅ I 99 98 = 118 , 8 ⋅ 1 , 0564 = 125 , 5

2. 6HULDUHFRQVWLWXLW úLLQGLFDWRULLDEVROX LúLUHODWLYLVXQWSUH]HQWD LvQWDEHOXO

Tabelul 6.13.

,QGLFDWRULDEVROX L Indicatori relativi

yt
Anul (auto / 1000 ∆t 1 ∆t t −1 I t 1(% ) It t −1 ( % ) Rt 1 Rt t −1 At 1 At t −1
locuitori)
A 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1991 61,4 - - 100 - - - - -
1992 67,9 6,5 6,5 110,52 110,52 10,52 10,58 0,614 0,614
1993 76,2 14,8 8,3 124,10 112,22 24,10 12,22 0,614 0,679
1994 85,5 24,1 9,3 139,25 112,20 39,25 12,20 0,614 0,762
1995 92,8 31,4 7,3 151,14 108,53 51,14 8,54 0,614 0,855
1996 101,0 39,6 8,2 164,49 108,83 64,49 8,84 0,614 0,928
1997 109,9 48,5 8,9 178,99 108,81 78,99 8,81 0,614 1,010
1998 118,8 57,4 8,9 193,48 108,10 93,48 8,10 0,614 1,099
1999 125,5 64,1 6,7 204,39 105,64 104,39 5,64 0,614 1,188
 4.
ÌQDQLLúLV DXvQUHJLVWUDWXUP WRDUHOHGDWHSULYLQGVWRFXULOHH[LVWHQWHvQGHSR]LWHOH
-
XQHLVRFLHW LFRPHUFLDOHWDEHOXO 6.14.).

Tabelul 6.14.

1999 2000
'DWDvQUHJLVWU ULL Cantitatea (kg) 'DWDvQUHJLVWU ULL Cantitatea (kg)
1 ianuarie 180 1 ianuarie 240
1 aprilie 200 25 martie 270
1 iulie 250 1 august 240
1 octombrie 270 20 octombrie 260
31 decembrie 240 31 decembrie 280

Se cere:

1. V VHUHSUH]LQWHJUDILFVHULLOHFURQRORJLFH

2. V VHFDOFXOH]HVWRFXOPHGLXvQFHLGRLDQL

Rezolvare:

1. Seria se timp pentru anul 1999 este o serie de momente cu intervale egale între
PRPHQWH5HSUH]HQWDUHDJUDILF VHIDFHSULQWU-o cronograP ILJ

Seria din anul 2000 este tot o serie de momente cu intervale neegale între momente.
3HQWUXUHSUH]HQWDUHDJUDILF VHIRORVHúWHXQJUDILFSULQFRORDQHILJ

300
250
cantitatea (kg)

200
150
100
50
0
1.01.99 1.04.99 1.07.99 1.10.99 31.12.99

GDWDvQUHJLVWU ULL

)LJXUD9DULD LDVWRFXULORUGHP UIXULvQDQXO

300 270 280

260
250 240 240
cantitatea (kg)

200
150
100
50
0
1.01.2000 25.03.2000 1.08.2000 20.10.2000 31.12.2000

GDWDvQUHJLVWU ULL

)LJXUD9DULD LDVWRFXULORUGHP UIXULvQDQXO

 2. Stocul mediu
3HQWUX SULPD VHULH VH FDOFXOHD]  R PHGLH FURQRORJLF  VLPSO  LDU SHQWUX VHULD D GRXD R

PHGLHFURQRORJLF SRQGHUDW 

y1 y5 180 240
+ y2 + y3 + y4 + + 200 + 250 + 200 +
2 2 2 2
y cr 1999 = = = 232 , 5 kg
n −1 5 −1

d1 d1 + d 2 d2 +d3 d3 +d4 d4
y1 + y2 + y3 + y4 + y5
2 2 2 2 2
y cr 2000 = ,
n −1

∑d i
i =1

unde d i VXQWLQWHUYDOHOHGHWLPSGLVWDQ HOHGLQWUHPRPHQWH

d 1 = 84 ; d 2 = 126 ; d 3 = 79 ; d 4 = 71 .

84 84 + 126 126 + 79 79 + 71 71
240 + 270 + 240 + 260 + 280
2 2 2 2 2
y cr 2000 =
360
92605
= = 256 , 86 kg
360

5.
Ponderea sectorului privat în PIB a evoluat astfel în perioada 1991 - 1992.

Tabelul 6.15.

Anul 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

0RGLILF UL

ID GH
2,8 11,2 15,3 21,7 31,3 37 38,4 39,7
anul
1991(%)

Se cere:

1. V VHUHFRQVWLWXLHVHULDGDF SRQGHUHDVHFWRUXOXLSULYDWvQ3,%DFUHVFXWvQDQXOID 

de anul 1991 de 2,326 ori;

2. V VHUHSUH]LQWHJUDILFVHULDUHFRQVWLWXLW 

3. V VHH[WUDSROH]HYDORULOHSHQWUXDQLLúL
 Rezolvare:

1. 'LQGDWHOHSUH]HQWDWHUH]XOW F 

 y 96 − y 91 = 31 , 3
  y 91 = 23 , 6
 y 96 ⇒
 = 2 , 326  y 96 = 54 , 9
 y 91

6HULDGHGDWHUHFRQVWLWXLW HVWHSUH]HQWDW vQWDEHOXOúLV DRE LQXWDVWIHO -

y 91 = 23 , 6

y 92 = 23 , 6 + 2 , 8 = 63 , 3

y 98 = 23 , 6 + 39 , 7 = 63 , 3

Tabelul 6.16.

Anii 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Ponderea
sectorului
23,6 26,4 34,8 38,9 45,3 54,9 60,6 62,0 63,3
privat în
PIB (%)

2. 5HSUH]HQWDUHDJUDILF VHIDFHSULQFURQRJUDP KLVWRJUDP 

70
ponderea sectorului privat

60
50
40
în PIB (%)

30
20
10
0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

anii

Figura 6.4.
3. Pentru extrapolarea valoriORUSHQWUXDQLLúLIRORVLPRPHWRG PHFDQLF úLXQD

DQDOLWLF GHDMXVWDUHFRQVLGHUkQGF FHOHGRX PHWRGHDMXVWHD] FHOPDLELQHIHQRPHQXO

0HWRGDPHFDQLF

0HWRGDPRGLILF ULLPHGLLDEVROXWH

5HOD LDGHDMXVWDUHHVWH

y t i = y 1 + ∆ ⋅ (t − 1 )

∆=
∑∆ t t −1
=
y n − y1
=
y 99 − y 91
=
63 , 3 − 23 , 6
= 4 , 9625 %
n −1 n −1 8 8

'DF  IHQRPHQXO VH GHVI úRDU  vQ DFHOHDúL FRQGL LL YDORULOH SHQWUX DQLL  úL 

vor fi:

y 2001 = y 1 + ∆ ⋅ (11 − 1 ) = 23 , 6 + 4 , 9625 ⋅ 10 = 73 , 225 %

y 2002 = y 1 + ∆ ⋅ (12 − 1 ) = 23 , 6 + 4 , 9625 ⋅ 11 = 78 , 1875 %

0HWRGDDQDOLWLF

*UDILFXOVXJHUHD] XQWUHQGOLQLDU

y ti = a + bt i

ApOLFkQG PHWRGD FHORU PDL PLFL S WUDWH úL DSRL FRQGL LD ∑t i = 0  VLVWHPXO GH HFXD LL
normale devine:


a =
∑ y i = 409 , 8 = 45 , 53
na = ∑ yi
  n 9
 ⇒ 
 b ∑ t i2 = ∑ t i y i  ∑ y i t i = 332 = 5 , 55
b =
 ∑ t 2 60

Calculele pentru determinarea parametrilor aúLb sunt prezentate în tabelul 6.17..

 Tabelul 6.17.

Anii yi ti t i2 yiti Y t i = 45 , 53 + 5 , 55 t i
0 1 2 3 4 5
1991 23,6 -4 16 -94,9 23,32
1992 26,4 -3 9 -79,2 28,88
1993 34,8 -2 4 -69,6 34,43
1994 38,9 -1 1 -38,9 39,98
1995 45,3 0 0 0 45,53
1996 54,9 1 1 54,9 51,08
1997 60,6 2 4 121,2 56,63
1998 62,0 3 9 186,0 62,19
1999 63,3 4 16 253,2 67,74
Total ∑ yi = 409 , 8 ∑t i =0 ∑ t i2 = 60 ∑ yi ti = 333 , 2 ∑Y t i
= 409 , 8

Pentru anLLúLYDORULOHYRUIL

Y 2001 = 45 , 53 + 5 , 55 ⋅ 6 = 78 , 83 %

Y 2002 = 45 , 53 + 5 , 55 ⋅ 7 = 84 , 38 %

(VWHGLILFLOGHSUHVXSXVF IHQRPHQXOXUPHD] DFHHDúLHYROX LH –VHREVHUY F vQXOWLPLL

3 ani (1997 –  PRGLILF ULOH DX IRVW UHGXVH FUHúWHULOH DX IRVW IRDUWH PLFL în
FRPSDUD LHFXDQLLSUHFHGHQ L
 PROBLEME PROPUSE

1.
&RQVXPXOPHGLXDQXDOGHODSWHúLSURGXVHGLQODSWHOORFXLWRUGLQ5RPkQLDDFXQRVFXWvQ

perioada 1989 –XUP WRDUHDHYROX LH

Tabelul 6.18.

Anul 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Consum (l) 135,9 140,1 163,3 163,7 176,9 179,5 188,6 192,7 192,4 194,4

Se cere:

1. V VHUHSUH]LQWHJUDILFVHULDFURQRORJLF 

2. V VHFDOFXOH]HLQGLFDWRULLDEVROX LUHODWLYLúLPHGLLFHFDUDFWHUL]HD] VHULDFURQRORJLF 

3. V VHDMXVWH]HVHULDSULQPHWRGHPHFDQLFHúLDQDOLWLFH

4. V VHSUHFL]H]HPHWRGDFDUHDMXVWHD] FHOPDLELQHWHQGLQ DGHHYROX LHDIHQRPHQXOXL

2.
Dinamica exporturilor produsului Y în perioada 1989 –DIRVWXUP WRDUHD

Tabelul 6.19.

Anul 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Dinamica
ID GH

anul 122,11 107,08 77,94 148,11 205,73 85,34 127,77 97,62 103,23 136,86 92,83
precedent
(%)

ùWLLQGF YDORDUHDH[SRUWXOXLvQDQXODIRVWGHPLOVHFHUH

1. V VHUHFRQVWLWXLHVHULDGHGDWH

2. V VHFDOFXOH]HWR LLQGLFDWRULLDEVROX LUHODWLYLúLPHGLL

3. V VHDMXVWH]HVHULDSULQPHWRGHPHFDQLFH

3.
3RSXOD LDRFXSDW WRWDOD5RPkQLHLvQWUH –ODVIkUúLWXODQXOXLHVWHSUH]HQWDW vQ

tabelul 6.20..

Tabelul 6.20.

Anul 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
3RSXOD LD

RFXSDW  10,840 10,786 10,458 10,062 10,011 9,493 9,379 9,023 8,813 8,420
(mii persoane)
 Se cere:

1. V VHUHSUH]LQWHJUDILFVHULD

2. V VHFDOFXOH]HLQGLFDWRULLPHGLL

3. V VHDMXVWH]HVHULDSULQWU RPHWRG DQDOLWLF úLV VHFDOFXOH]HHURDUHDPHGLHS WUDWLF D

-
DMXVW ULLúLFRHILFLHQWXOGHYDULD LH

4.
&UHúWHULOH vQUHJLVWUDWH SULYLQG YDORDUHD H[SRUWXULORU 5RPkQLHL OD SURGXVHOH GH OHPQ vQ

perioada 1991 –DXIRVWXUP WRDUHOH

Tabelul 6.21.
Anul 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
&UHúWHULID GH

anul precedent 40 22 45 36 38 42 47
(mil. $)

Se cere:

1. V VH UHFRQVWLWXLHVHULDGHYDORULDEVROXWHúWLLQGF YDORDUHDH[SRUWXOXLDFUHVFXWvQDQXO

ID GHDQXOFX

2. V VHFDOFXOH]HLQGLFDWRULLPHGLLúLV VHL nterpreteze;

3. V  VH DMXVWH]H VHULD SULQWU XQ SURFHGHX PHFDQLF úL XQXO DQDOLWLF
- – DUJXPHQWD L SURFHGHXO
ales;
4. SUHFL]D L FDUH GLQ FHOH GRX  SURFHGHH DMXVWHD]  FHO PDL ELQH HYROX LD H[SRUWXULORU vQ

DFHDVW SHULRDG 

5.
6HFXQRVFXUP WRDUHOHGDWHSULYLQGG inamica PIB (1991 = 100).

Tabelul 6.22.

Anii 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

Dinamica PIB
88,17 82,24 88,56 97,02 92,91 85,16 87,62 85,39
(%)

Se cere:

1. V  VH UHFRQVWLWXLH VHULD GH GDWH úWLLQG F  vQ DQXO  YDORDUHD 3,% D IRVW GH

2138,2 mld.OHLvQSUH XULOHDQXOXL

2. V VHUHSUH]LQWHJUDILFVHULDGHGDWH

3. V VHFDOFXOH]HLQGLFDWRULLDEVROX LUHODWLYLúLPHGLLúLV VHLQWHUSUHWH]H

6.
6HFXQRVFXUP WRDUHOHGDWHSULYLQGHYROX LDXQXLIHQRPHQvQSHULRDGD – 1998:

Tabelul 6.22.

Anul 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Modificarea
DEVROXW ID GH 25 32 28 22 31 24 30
anul precedent

Se cere:

1. V VHUHFRQVWLWXLHVHULDGHYDORULDEVROXWHFXQRVFkQGF IHQRPHQXODFUHVFXWvQDQXO

ID GHFX

2. V VHFDOFXOH]HLQGLFDWRULLDEVROX LUHODWLYLúLPHGLL

3. V  VH DMXVWH]H VHULD SULQWU XQ SURFHGHX PHFDQLF úL XQXO DQDOLWLF DUJXPHQWD L SURFHGHHOH
-
alese;
4. SUHFL]D L FDUH GLQ PHWRGHOH XWLOL]DWH DMXVWHD]  FHO PDL ELQH IHQRPHQXO vQ DFHDVW 

SHULRDG 

5. H[WUDSROD LVHULDSHQWUXXUP WRUL i doi ani.