INTRODUCTION

Frequency:
“ The frequency is the number of time that a flood of given
magnitude may occur in a given period”.

Knowledge of the magnitude and possible frequency of recurrence of

floods is necessary for

1)Economical Planning and safe design of:

Bridges
Dams
Levees
Culverts,
Sewage disposal plants,
And other structures located along streams

2) The effective management of:

Flood Plain and

Flood defense scheme

3) To estimate the possible flood magnitude over a certain

time period.

4) To approximate the frequency with which floods of a certain

magnitude may occur.

 Knowledge of flood frequency is important for flood insurance

and flood zoning
 Either overdesign or underdesign of structures escalates costs
on a long-time basis. The initial cost of a bridge if built for a 5-
year flood may be small, but the cost of rebuilding it at an
 average 5-year interval would be large .A bridge ,built to pass
the 100-year flood on the other hand might be extremely
costly. Intermediate design would permit building bridge at
that site for the lowest average annual cost.
 For the flood frequency analysis past flood data is used.
 The discharge records or past data collected by the Geological
Survey and other Federal,State, and private agencies are
studied together.
 Flood frequency analysis uses
historical records of peak flows
to produce guidance about the
expected behaviour of future
flooding determination of the
design flood.
Literature Review:
Mujere,N (2011) presented a study aimed at analysing the
frequency of Nyanyadzi river, Zimbabwe, floods using the
Gumbel distribution.Extreme floods over years had caused
much destruction . It was hypothesized that Nyanyadzi
flood flows obey the Gumbel distribution.The scale and
shape parameters of the distribution were estimated using
method of moments. Maximum instantaneous flow data
covering 30 water years for a station on Nyanyadzi river
were collected. There were no significant
differences(p=1.000) between the predicted and measured
flow magnitudes.Hence, the model could be reliably applied
to predict the occurrence of Nyanyadzi river floods.
Solomon, O. and Prince, O. (2013) carried out flood
frequency analysis on the Osse river, France using Gumble’s
Distribution which is one of the probability distribution
used to model stream flow. This was necessitated by the
need to protect lives and property at the downstream of
catchment area.Gumble’s Distribution was used to model
the annual maximum discharge of the river for a period of
20 years.
Al-mashidani,G. et al.(1978) suggested that the use of
Gumble’s method is a rather time consuming. So, it was
needed to simplify the Gumble technique. Hence they
simplified the Gumble’s method in such a manner that one
can obtain the magnitude of a given return period flood
without recourse to look at a table and working out the
value of the coefficient of variation of the given data.
Mukherjee,M.K.(2013) developed a mathematical model
between peak flood discharge and return period using
Gumble’s extreme value distribution.This was done to
account for high discharge or flooding levels in the river
Subernarekha, West Bengal,India. The model gave
reasonable estimate of peak flood discharge for any desired
value of T.The stage corresponding to any peak value was
ascertained by developing rating curves.
Abdo,G.(2005) carried out flood frequency analysis for the
rivers of the eastern Nile Basin(the Blue Nile and its
tributaries and river Atbara). This was done to derive
hydrologically homogeneous regions and establish the
corresponding regional frequency curves using in situ
annual maximum flood peaks as well as regional data. The
developed regional frequency curves and regression model
can be applied for the estimation of floods with various
return periods in ungauged catchments homogeneous with
the regions under consideration.
Stedinger, J.R.& Colin,T.A.(1986) made an estimation of
flood quantile estimators which can employ ‘hstorical’ and
paleoflood information in flood frequency analyses. Two
categories of historical information were considered:
‘censored’ data and ‘binomial’data . A Monte Carlo study
employing the two-parameter log normal distribution
shows that maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) can
extract the equivalent of an additional 10-30 years of gauge
records.
Burn,D.H.(1990) technique is referred to as the reason of
influence approach. In that every site can have a potentially
unique set of gauging stations for use in the estimation of
at-site extremes. The rationale for the methodology is
discussed and several options for incorporating the
approach into regional flood frequency analysis are
developed and compared with traditional regional
estimation procedures. Through Monte Carlo experiment
the reason of influence approach was demonstrated to
provide improved at-site estimates of extreme flow
variables in terms of network average root mean squared
error and comparable results for bias.
Dalrymple,T(1960) describes the method used by the U.S.
Geological Survey to determine the magnitude and
frequency of momentary peak discharges at any place on a
stream, whether a gagging-station record is available or not.
The method is applicable to a region of any size, as a river
basin or a state, so long as the region is hydrologically
homogeneous. The analysis provides two curves. The first
expresses the flood discharge –time relation ,showing
variation of peak discharge, expressed as a ratio to the
mean annual flood, with recurrence interval. The second
relates the mean annual flood to the size of drainage area
alone or to the size area and other significant basin
characteristics.
Yue,S (1999) suggested that flood frequency analysis often
focuses on flood peak values, and hence provides a limited
assessment of flood events. Hence they proposed the use of
Gumble mixed model, the bivariate extreme value
distribution model with Gumble marginals to analyse the
joint distribution of correlated flood peaks and volumes,
and the joint probability distribution of correlated flood
volumes and durations. Based on the marginal distributions
of these random variables the joint distributions , the
conditional probability functions,and the associated return
periods were derived .
Zrinji, Z . & Burn, D.H. (1993) presented a framework for
regional flood frequency analysis that is applicable for
estimating extreme flow quantities at ungauged
catchments. The methodology uses the Region of Influence
(ROI) approach to rationalization and explicitly incorporate
a homogeneity test in the process of selecting the collection
of stations that comprise the region for a ungaused site. The
relative merits of the methodology are demonstrated
through an application to extreme flow data for sites in
New Foundland, Canada.
Wiltshire, S.E. (1985) described a procedure for classifying
basins into distinct homogeneous group for regional flood
frequency analysis. The scheme consisted of an iterative
search through the basin characteristics database which
optimises statistics that describe the efficiency of grouping.
Application of the procedure to basins in Britain yielded five
groups on the basis of basin area, average rainfall and urban
fraction. Four of these groups were homogenous with
respect to the coefficient of variation of the annual
maximum flood series.
Flood Frequency Analysis:
Flood frequency analysis are used to predict to design
floods for sites along a river.The technique involves using
observed annual peak flow discharge data to calculate
statistical information such as mean values, standard
deviations, skewness and recurrence intervals. These
statistical data are then used to construct frequency
distributions, which are graphs and tables that tell the
likelihood of various discharges as a function of recurrence
interval or exceedence probability.
The common methods are:

 GUMBEL DISTRIBUTION: This is used to model the

distribution of the maximum (or the minimum) of a
number of samples of various distributions. This
distribution might be used to represent the distribution
of the maximum level of a river in a particular year if
there was a list of maximum values for the past ten
years.It is useful in predicting the chance that an
extreme earthquake, flood or other natural disaster
will occur.
 LOG-PEARSON TYPE 3 DISTRIBUTION: It is extensively
used in hydrologic frequency analysis. The traditional
fitting procedure consists of transformation of natural
data into logarithms and fitting logarithmic data to a
Pearson type 3 distribution by the method of
moments. In this method the unknown values such as
 flood flows, low flows, etc for different return periods,
are obtained on the basis of mean, variance and
skewness coefficient of logarithmic data from the
tables.

PAPER 1:
AREA OF STUDY- COLLECTING THE FLOOD PEAK DATA
METHOD:
 The two methods of collecting the flood peak data are:
(i) Annual - flood series
(ii) Partial - duration series

An Annual Flood is defined as the highest instantaneous

peak discharge in a water year. The use of only one flood
in each year is the most frequent criticism to the use of
annual floods.

Partial- duration series:

Step 1: Obtain streamflow data.

Step 2: Organize the information in a table.

Step 3: Rank the data from largest to smallest discharge.

Step 4:Make a column with the log of each max or peak
streamflow using the Excel formula (logQ) and copy
command.

Step 5: Calculate average or peak and the average of

logQ

Step 6: Create a column with the excel formula {(log Q –

avg(log Q))^2}

Step 7: Create a column with the excel formula (logQ-

avg(logQ))^3

Step 8: Make a column with the return period (Tr) for

each discharge using the Excel formula {(n+1)/m}

Step 9: Complete the table drawing a column showing

the exceedence probability of each discharge using
the excel formula (=1/ return period or 1/Tr) and
the copy command.

Step 10: Calculate the sum for the {(log Q- avg(log Q))^2}
and the { (log Q- avg(log Q))^3} columns.

Step 11: Calculate the variance, standard deviation and

skew coefficient of the data.
 PAPER 2:

AREA OF STUDY- EVALUATION OF FLOOD FREQUENCY

METHOD:
 For the evaluate on of flood frequency can be classified into
two approaches:
 (i) Statical approach estimates flood quantiles by applying
probability models.

(ii) The design storm method works on the rainfall – runoff

model.

 In a statical method :
(i) Probability plotting method
(ii) Weibull Formula
(iii) Hazel Formula
(iv) California Method
(v) Gumbel’s Method

 For all these methods Weibull Formula is most commonly

used .

 Flood frequency curve is constructed by plotting a graph of

discharge versus probabilities.

 This can easily be drawn provided you have a data set of

annual peak discharge measured over a number of years.

 We need to calculate chronological order of each of the

floods.Start by ordering our data according to the magnitude
of the flood, from largest to smallest.

 Number each of the floods in order. Start by numbering the

largest flood as number “ 1”.
 The order of flood is denoted by letter “m”. If you have
hundred years of records, you will calculate flood orders for
m=1, m=2, m=3, .….m=10.

 The probabilities of flood is found by this equation:

P=m/(n+1)

Where, P= probability
m= the number we calculated
n= the number of years in the record,

 Probabilities will go on the x-axis ; and discharge will go on

the y-axis title of the graph “ Flood Frequency Curve”.

 Plot corresponding discharges and probabilities .

 Draw a best-fit line between the data set.The resulting line is

a flood frequency curve.

Gumbel’s Method:
The probability of occurrence of an event equal to or larger
than a value x0 is
P(X>= x0 )= 1- e-e-y
In which y is a dimensionless variable given by y= α(x-a),
Where α= x̄ - 0.45005 σx & σ= 1.285/ σx
Thus
Y= 1.285(x- x̄)/ σx + 0.577
Where x̄= mean and σx = standard deviation
We can write yp= -ln(-ln(1-P)
And as P=1/T
yT= -ln(ln (T/(T-1))

It follows from eqn. 1 and 3, the value of X with a return

period T is
Where KT= (yT – 0.577)/ 1.2825

Where yT = -ln( ln(T/(T-1))

= reduced mean , a function of sample size

LOG PEARSON TYPE 3 DISTRIBUTION: It is a statistical

technique for fitting frequency distribution data to predict the
design flood for a river at some site. Once the statistical
information is calculated for the river site, frequency
distribution can be constructed. The Log- Pearson Type 3
distribution is calculated using the general steps:

Steps:
1. Prepare the annual maximum flood data (x).
2. Take the logarithm (base 10)
z= log10(x)
3. The T year flood estimate is given by
4. From table, calculate Kz based on T and Cs
Cs = N∑(z-
5. After finding ZT the corresponding value of XT is obtained
as XT= antilog(ZT)

Uses of Log Pearson Type 3 Distribution:

The Log- Pearson Type 3 distribution tells you the likely
values of discharges to expect in the river at various
 recurrence intervals based on the available historical
record. This is helpful when designing structures in or near
the river that may be affected by floods. It is also helpful
when designing structures to protect against the largest
expected event . For this reason it is customary to perform
the flood frequency analysis using the instantaneous peak
discharge data. However the Log Pearson Type 3
distribution can be constructed using the maximum values
for mean daily discharge data.

PAPER-3

AREA OF STUDY- LIKELIHOOD OF FLOOD

METHOD:
 The likelihood of a particular event can be calculated from its
flood frequency as follows:

F = P x 100

= [ m / (n+1) ] x 100

For example, the possibility of a 50-year flood occurring this

year :

1/50= 0.02

= 0.02 x 100
= 2 % chance
 A graph is drawn between flood recurrence interval and
discharge.

 The plotting position is in terms of years.

 The objective of the frequency analysis is to determine the

magnitude of the flood which will equalled or exceeded once
in a specific period of years; this specified period of years is
known as the recurrence interval.
 PAPER-4

AREA OF STUDY- EVALUATION OF RECURRENCE INTGERVAL

METHOD:

 “ Recurrence intervals “ or “ Return period ” is the time period

over which the occurrence of a particular magnitude flood is
likely.

 Based on assumptions of probability , several methods have

been used to compute the recurrence interval.

 For example, if a town has a flood recurrence interval of 100

years , the town on average will flood one time in every
hundred years.

Calculate the recurrence interval, which is the number of

times a flood of a given magnitude occurred in your record.

Recurrence interval which is nothing but the reciprocal of the

annual exceedance probability .

 The formula for recurrence interval is :

T = 1/P
= (n+1)/m

 Construct graph on the semi logarithmic paper.

 Recurrence interval will go on the x axis; and discharge will go
the y axis. title of graph “Flood Frequency Curve”

 Plot the corresponding discharges and recurrence intervals.

 A best fit line is drawn between the data set. The resulting
line is called the flood frequency curve.
