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Just down the neatly manicured road, about a dozen skyscrapers rise from
the fields as Shunde New Energy Vehicle Town takes shape inside the city
of Foshan, part of southern Chinaʼs manufacturing heartland. Local officials
boast that their planned hub for EV production and research could
eventually generate 100 billion yuan ($15 billion) in revenue for the
hometown economy.
Shunde is one of at least 20 electric-centric versions of Detroit under
construction as China goes all-in on a technology projected to sell in record
numbers this year. President Xi Jinping wants the nationʼs 500 electric car
makers to be magnets for ancillary industries as he pushes to build a
manufacturing superpower by 2025. That blueprint -- meant to make China
more self-sufficient and diversify an investment landscape dominated by
volatile property and equity markets -- has become central to the U.S.-
China trade war.
The other hubs include Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd.ʼs plan for a research
and production base in Yiwu, LeEco Vehicle Ecological Town in Huzhou and
Self-Driving Auto Town in Xiamen.
Shunde New Energy Vehicle Town.
Between 2009 and 2017, China spent about $36.5 billion subsidizing EV
sales, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies in
Washington. China now accounts for more than half of all passenger EV
sales worldwide.
Government's Bait
Authorities use cheaper land to lure developers help build a advanced tech town
That helped Country Garden pare office rents by as much as 25% from
market rates. And those businesses need skilled workers, so the
government offers subsidies of as much as 6 million yuan to help them buy
homes.
“The towns have at least one key resource that EV makers and suppliers are
eager to own: the land,” said Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the China
Passenger Car Association. “That will naturally attract them to move into
the towns.”
Governments around the world are supporting EVs, Zeng said. The U.S.
subsidized purchases of EVs and the state of Nevada approved a $1.3
billion incentive package for Tesla Inc. to build its battery gigafactory there.
Yet the EV towns are developing just as Chinaʼs overall auto sales crater.
And while sales of passenger EVs are projected by BloombergNEF to reach
1.6 million units this year, thatʼs likely not enough to keep 500 companiesʼ
assembly lines humming.
EVs still only account for less than 5% of total car sales in China, and the
government is cutting subsidies to force makers to thrive on innovation
instead of handouts.
Those factors have some analysts seeing flashing red lights ahead.
“Most of those EV towns will fail,ʼʼ said John Zeng, managing director of
LMC Automotive Shanghai. “This wave of electric-vehicle building will come
to a life-or-death moment. When EV carmakers are being squeezed, the ‘EV
Townʼ bubble will burst.ʼʼ
Shunde New Energy Vehicle Town.
A visit in March to Shunde found its voltage a bit low. No one in Country
Gardenʼs showroom could name the suspended carʼs make or model. And
there were few gearheads around, with most offices seemingly empty, on a
weekday.
Still, Liu is optimistic the sleepy district will one day morph into an electric
Detroit.
“I admit that the EV sector is still working its own way,ʼʼ Liu said. “But we
have been well aware of sector challenge since planning it two years ago,
and weʼre confident that we can adapt to the change.”
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