IHS AUTOMOTIVE

Presentation

ADAS – Current & Future Perspectives

IHS Automotive Seminar– Frankfurt | June 17th ihs.com

Helena Perslow, Senior Analyst, +44 1933 408074,

helena.perslow@ihs.com
Jeremy Carlson, Senior Analyst, +1 310 524 4065,
jeremy.carlson@ihs.com

© 2015 IHS
 IHS Automotive Seminar Frankfurt / June 2015

Contents

CONTINUALLY REINVENTING ADAS

‫‮‬

TECHNOLOGY COMING TO MARKET

‫‮‬

ADAS FORECAST OUTLOOK

‫‮‬

FROM ADAS TO AUTOMATION TO AUTONOMY

‫‮‬

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Continually Reinventing ADAS

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Assisting the driver in more ways than one

Safety

AEB

ESC

AHB

BSI

LKA
New added benefits
LDW Auto being realized
Pilot
TSR
Maps
TJA
360PA Powertrain
1
ACC
Braking
Comfort & Cam PA Efficiency
Convenience Acceleration
US PA AutoPA Transmission

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Comprehensive sensor coverage

V2V + V2I GPS ESC Driver Biometrics

DSRC Maps Transmission Digital Agenda
Cellular Navigation Powertrain Wearables

Radar
Camera
Ultrasound

Many sensor choices to build an ADAS portfolio – and more possible

Decisions will differ by brand, segment and market

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New Sensors Causing Disruption – 77 GHz MRR

77 GHz LRR 77 GHz MRR 24 GHz NB 24 GHz UWB

79 GHz UWB sensors also under development

Balance of cost and functionality may differ by brand and segment

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Sensor Fusion

77 GHz LRR

Mono or Stereo Camera

77 GHz MRR

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New sensors causing disruption – trifocal camera

Trifocal Camera 77 GHz LRR

Trifocal camera a significant threat to displace stereo-camera

Trifocal camera may replace mono-camera in long-term autonomous
future
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Technology Coming To Market

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ADAS Going Mainstream – Technology Tiers Emerging

NAIAS / CES Geneva

Everything At Once RADAR + CAMERA

Audi Q7 77 GHz MRR Ford Mustang Citroen Berlingo

Honda Pilot Citroen DS5

More tech, improved functionality
Hyundai Tucson Honda Civic
Chevrolet Volt 77 GHz MRR
Jaguar XE Honda Jazz

Seat Leon Mazda CX-3

Par for the near-luxury course
Skoda Superb Peugeot Partner
Lincoln MKX
Volkswagen Sharan Peugeot 208
Strategic deployment Opel Karl
Nissan Titan, Toyota Tacoma Renault Kadjar

Mainstream Models
Radar deprioritized – Camera incredibly popular – Lidar proliferating

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ADAS Forecast Outlook

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ADAS outlook – Europe vs the World

Vehicle production installation rates – Europe & Worldwide
50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
Adaptive Cruise Autonomous Lane Departure Blind Spot Autonomous Park
Control Emergency Brake Warning Information Assist

Source: IHS 2015 EU 2020 EU 2015 WW 2020 WW © 2015 IHS

EU production surpassing worldwide averages for every major ADAS

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ADAS outlook – North America vs Europe

Vehicle production units – North America & Europe

12.000

10.000

8.000
#K

6.000

4.000

2.000

0
NA 2015 EU 2015 NA 2020 EU 2020

Autonomous Emergency Braking Forward Collision Warning

Source: IHS © 2015 IHS

North American production shifts from FCW only towards AEB

European regulation and tech-forward strategy significantly outpaces North
America

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From ADAS To Automation To Autonomy

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Defining the terminology

Automated Autonomous

Cooperative Car-Driver Relationship Replacement

Driver in “In the loop” Driver out or absent

Driver Failsafe Car

03 NHTSA Levels 3  4*

Evolutionary Approach Revolutionary

Automotive Industry Proponent Challengers

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Current state of the art & announced plans as of June 2015

5
4
3

2
Many incremental and evolutionary steps within Level 2

NHTSA 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

LEVEL OF
AUTOMATION In Production Announced / Expected
(L5 = IHS)
Level 2 debatable – many are capable but limit functionality for liability (US) or regulatory (EU et al) reasons
“The major distinction between level 1 and level 2 is… that the driver is disengaged… by having hands off
the steering wheel AND foot off pedal at the same time.” -- NHTSA Automated Vehicle Preliminary Policy

© 2015 IHS IHS Level 5: Fully autonomous without driver controls 16

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Automated driving evolution

Autonomous vehicle sales forecast
14 10
9
12
8
10 7
8 6

%
5
#M

6 4
4 3
2
2
1
0 0
2020 2025 2030 2035
Source: IHS L4 L5 % New LV Sales © 2015 IHS

L5 No driver controls

L4 Autonomous with driver controls

L3
L2
L1
L0
2005 2015 2025 2035
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