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Received December 4, 2011; revised February 4, 2012; accepted February 12, 2012
ABSTRACT
Motivated by statistical tests on historical data that confirm the normal distribution assumption on the spreads between
major constant maturity swap (CMS) indexes, we propose an easy-to-implement two-factor model for valuing CMS
spread link instruments, in which each forward CMS spread rate is modeled as a Gaussian process under its relevant
measure, and is related to the lognormal martingale process of a corresponding maturity forward LIBOR rate through a
Brownian motion. An illustrating example is provided. Closed-form solutions for CMS spread options are derived.
who approximate the value of CMS spread options in the joint hypothesis of both the skewness and excess kurtosis
standard lognormal LIBOR market model with determi- being zero. Any deviation from the normal distribution
nistic and stochastic volatilities respectively. This current increases the JB which the statistic is given by the fol-
approach has the advantage to help understand the influ-
lowing formula JB 2 3 4 N 6 , where
2
ence of various model parameters—in particular the cor- is the sample skewness, is the sample kurtosis, and
relation between the two rates used to calculate the N is the sample size. Historical CMS data have been
spread. But it has a limited analytical tractability, as the obtained from BloombergTM database.3 Table 1 presents
linear combination of lognormal variables has an un- the values of the statistics as results of the JB test.
known distribution. Closed-form solutions for CMS spread The first row shows CMS spread rates for which the
options can be obtained only in rare cases, such as the JB test has been done. The second row presents the test
case of caplets and floorlets with zero strike in which statistics results with their associated p-values when we
Margrabe [5] exchange option formula can be used. use 1-year weekly average of CMS spread data—from 1
Our approach is to model the CMS spread rate directly January 2007 to 31 December 2007. The third shows the
with a distribution that allows for both positive and nega- test statistics results for 10-year quarterly average of CMS
tive values in its range. We center the CMS spread rate spread data—from 1 January 1998 to 31 December 2007.
on its forward value, and each forward CMS spread rate Overall, at 5 percent level of significance the normality
is assumed to be driven by a Gaussian stochastic process assumption is accepted for each CMS spread and for both
under its relevant measure, and is related to the log- cases of the 1-year and the 10-year historical data. Based
normal martingale process of a forward LIBOR rate of on this level of significance it is realistic to model the
the same maturity through a Brownian motion. Models CMS spread rate as normally distributed in the valuation
based on our approach have two relative advantages. of both short and long maturity derivatives. The follow-
Firstly they are more flexible for analytical tractability ing section then proposes a Gaussian market models to
and can lead to close-form solutions for CMS spread op- value interest derivatives on CMS spread rates.
tions. Secondly they can be calibrated directly with CMS
spread instruments, and hence they reduce arbitrage risks 3. The Model
in the valuation of more complex CMS spread deriva0 Let us consider a finite time horizon [0, T ] in which
tives.
trading is done. We assume the uncertainty in our econ-
The rest of this paper is structured as follows. The next
omy is modeled by a complete filtered probability space,
section test and confirm the normality assumption of
some CMS spread rates. Section 3 presents the proposed ,F , F
T t 0t T
, : M , in which is the set of
model and shows how forward CMS spread rates for all possible states of nature, Ft 0 t T is a filtration that
different maturities can be simultaneously modeled under
a single measure. Section 4 provides a numerical illus- satisfies the usual conditions and it is generated by two
trates of the model. Closed-form solutions for CMS spread independent source of risk (two standard Brownian mo-
caplets, floorlets, and digital options are derived in Sec- tions), and is a probability measure that belongs to
M , the class of equivalent probability measures on
tion 5. A final section concludes the study.
,FT . N 1
2. A Test of Normality for CMS Spreads Let Ti i 1 be an increasing sequence of dates from
which reset dates of financial derivatives will be taken.
In this section we use Jarque-Bera (JB) test to access the i : Ti 1 Ti will denote the day-count fraction between
normality assumption on the spreads between the CMS at times Ti and Ti 1 . Let Pi 1 t : 0 t Ti 1 be the
key maturity points of the yield curve—2, 5, 10, and 30 price process of the risk-free discount bond paying one
years. These points are the maturities of the most traded monetary unit at time Ti 1 . According to the asset pric-
fixed income instruments. Furthermore, the CMS spreads ing theory one can find a probability measure, i1 ,
5-year minus 2-year, 10-year minus 5-year, 30-year mi- equivalent to , for which Pi 1 t : 0 t Ti 1 is the
nus 10-year, and 30-year minus 2-year can be viewed as numeraire as in Geman et al. [6]. Following Jamshidian
representing the short-end, the middle, the long-end, and [7], i1 will be called Ti 1 -forward measure.
the entire yield curve respectively. At any given time t Ti , let us define
The JB test can be used to access the normality as- Si t : 0 t Ti to be the stochastic process of the
sumption of the spread between these indexes. The JB forward CMS spread rate for the maturity date Ti . Here
test statistic is distributed as a Chi-square random vari- Si t denotes the view of investors at time t of what
able with two degrees of freedom, and measures the de- 3
The CMS tickers are represented as USSWAPyy, where yy is the year
parture of the skewness and kurtosis of a series from indicator. For Example the tickers for CMS 30 yrs and CMS 2 yrs are
those of the Normal distribution. The null hypothesis is a USSWAP30 and USSWAP02 respectively.
CMS Spread 5 yrs - 2 yrs 10 yrs - 2 yrs 30 yrs - 2 yrs 10 yrs - 5 yrs 30 yrs - 5 yrs 30 yrs - 10 yrs
will be the level of the CMS spread rate at time Ti . Be- tional source of risk. This assumption has the implication
cause the value of the forward CMS spread rate can be that traders can have different views on the entire yield
either positive or negative, we assume its dynamics is curve on the one hand and on the slope of a part of the
driven by a Gaussian process. A martingale spread meas- yield curve on the other hand.4 The forward LIBOR rate
ure for this forward CMS spread exists. But as noticed by is then assumed to be driven by the two Brownian mo-
Antonov and Arneguy [8], the corresponding numeraire tions and its dynamics under the Ti 1 -forward measure is
process for this measure is difficult to calculate. To over- given by the following stochastic differential equation
come this difficulty, we define the dynamics of this for-
ward CMS spread directly under the Ti 1 -forward meas-
dLi t i t Li t i t dW i 1 t i t dW i 1 t ,
ure as a Brownian motion with a drift. This drift arises (2)
from the convexity adjustment and the change of meas- subject to the initial forward LIBOR rate Li 0 , and
ure. Hence the stochastic differential equation of the for- where i : [0, T ] is a deterministic bounded func-
ward CMS spread rate is represented as tions that is square integrable on [0, T ] , and
dSi t i t dt i t dW i 1 t , (1)
W i 1 t : 0 t Ti is a standard Brownian motion
under the Ti1 -forward measure. This additional Brow-
subject to the initial forward CMS spread rate Si 0 ,
nian motion is independent of W i 1 t : 0 t Ti . The
and where i :[0, T ] and i :[0, T ] are de- function i : [0, T ] [1, 1] is the correlation coeffi-
terministic bounded functions that are integrable and cient between Si t and ln Li t , and
square integrable on [0, T ] respectively, and
i t 1 i t
2 12
is the orthogonal complement of
W i 1 t : 0 t Ti is a standard Brownian motion
i t .
under the Ti 1 -forward measure.
At any given time t Ti let us define Equation (1) defines the stochastic differential equa-
Li t : 0 t Ti to be the stochastic process of the tion of the forward CMS spread rate under its relevant
measure, the Ti 1 -forward measure. This equation can
i -tenor forward LIBOR rate maturing at time Ti . Here
lead to closed-form solutions to value financial deriva-
Li t denotes the interest rate available at time t for a
tives that depend on a CMS spread rate at a single matur-
risk-free loan which is effective at time Ti and matures
ity date such as CMS spread caplets, floorlets, and digital
at time Ti 1 . As in the standard LIBOR market model,
options. However, for valuing financial derivatives that
let us assume the dynamics of Li t under the Ti 1 -
involve forward CMS spread rates at more than one ma-
forward measure to be a lognormal martingale.
turity date, all rates needed to be modeled simultaneously,
It is important to note that under the Ti 1 -forward
i.e., under a single measure as in the following proposi-
measure if the forward LIBOR rate is driven only by the
tion.
same source of risk that drives the forward CMS rate,
Proposition 1. Under the TM 1 -forward measure as-
both stochastic processes will be perfectly correlated, and
hence it will be economically redundant to trade CMS sociated to the numeraire PM 1 t : 0 t TM 1 :
spread derivatives, as investors can obtain the same result 1) for i M , the expression of dSi t is given by
by trading the forward LIBOR rate. Therefore, we as- Equation (1).
sume the forward LIBOR rate to be driven by an addi- 2) for i M ,
M
t k t Lk t
dSi t i t i t k k dt i t dW
M 1
t , (3)
k i 1 1 L
k k t
4
This will be illustrated in the numerical example.
where
M j j t L t
dLk t k t Lk t
j
j k 1 1 j L j t
j k
t t
j t
k t dt
(4)
k k
t L t t dWk
M 1
t t dW t .
k
M 1
3) and for i M ,
i t k t Lk t
dSi t i t i t k k dt i t dW
M 1
t , (5)
k M 1 1 L
k k t
where
k t Lj t
j M 1 1 j L j t j k
dLk t k t Lk t j j t t j (t ) k t dt
(6)
k
t L t t dW
k k M 1
t t dW
k M 1 t .
Proof: market data are not easily available. Therefore, for sim-
Let us consider two consecutive forward LIBOR rate plicity of the illustration we assume all model parameters
processes, Li 1 t : 0 t Ti 1 and Li t : 0 t Ti , to be constant, i.e., i t , i t , i t ,
which their stochastic dynamics are described by Equa- i t , and i . In the first column we consider
tion (2) under the Ti -forward measure and the Ti 1 -for- the initial term structures of forward LIBOR and forward
ward measure respectively. It is straightforward to prove CMS spread rates to be flat. Even though we started the
that by applying Ito’s lemma on the Radon-Nikodym simulation with flat curves for both the forward LIBOR
derivative that allows the change of measure from the rates and the forward CMS spread rates, the end results
Ti1 -forward measure to the Ti -forward measure, and shows that the expected forward LIBOR rates are in-
using Cameron-Martin-Girsanov theorem (as in e.g. Pels- creasing while the expected forward CMS spread rates
ser [9]) one obtain the following relationships are fluctuating around zero.
i i t i t Li t
dW i t dW i 1 t dt 5. Closed-Form Solutions for CMS Spread
1 i Li (t ) Options
i i t i t Li t
dW t dW t
i i 1
dt This section presents the derivation of closed-form solu-
1 i Li t tions for valuing simple instruments which payoffs are
functions of a CMS spread rate at a single maturity date,
The result of the theorem is then obtained apply the
such as CMS spread caplets and floorlets. A CMS spread
above relationships repeatedly backward and forward on
caplet (floorlet) is a call (put) option on a CMS spread
Equations (1) and (2).
rate. At maturity the buyer receives a payment from the
seller if the CMS spread was above (below) the agreed
4. A Numerical Example strike rate. CMS spread caplets (floorlets) are not gener-
For illustration purpose Table 2 shows the results of a ally traded. However they are useful as they are building
one thousand paths of Monte Carlo simulation for gener- blocks of over-the-counter traded CMS spread caps
ating forward LIBOR rates and forward CMS spread (floors).
rates with a quarterly frequency over a two-year period. Let Gi t : 0 t Ti be the price process of a cap-
The results of this simulation can be used to valuing let or a floorlet that resets at time Ti and pays off at
CMS spread derivatives that mature within two years and time Ti 1 with a strike rate K . We have
,
that involve forward CMS spread rates at more than one
Gi t Pi 1 t i it 1 Si Ti K
maturity date. This simulation is done under the terminal (7)
measure, i.e., the measure associated to the discount
bond maturing in two years. where 1 for caplet and floorlet respectively, and
Although the CMS spread derivatives are increasing in it 1
represents the expectation with respect to the
popularity, they are still OTC instruments, and their Ti 1 -forward measure and the sigma-algebra Ft . The
Table 2. Average of one thousand sample paths of forward LIBOR and forward CMS spread rates in the terminal measure
with σ = 20%, ρ = 10%, ψ = 0.5%, γ = 0.1%, and δ = 0.25.
L0 Ti 2.50%
S0 Ti 0.10%
stochastic differential equation of the forward CMS generally traded. However they are useful as they are
spread in Equation (1) implies building blocks of range accrual CMS spread notes that
are over-the-counter traded. If Di t : 0 t Ti repre-
Si Ti Si (t ) i u dW i 1 u ,
Ti
(8) sents the price process of a digital option that pays one
t
monetary unit at time Ti 1 in case the CMS spread rate
where Si t Si t t i u du is the convexity ad-
Ti
CMS spread rates. [5] W. Margrabe, “The Value of an Option to Exchange One
Asset for the Another,” Journal of Finance, Vol. 33, No.
1, 1978, pp. 177-186. doi:10.2307/2326358
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