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Digital Economy:

Trends, Opportunities and Challenges


Dr. James Manyika
Extracts from McKinsey Global Institute Research
Digitization of everything

McKinsey & Company | 1


Size of the Digital Economy
Up to 98% Examples
Percent of US economy Retail via e-commerce 13%
impacted by digitization
Investment in ICT as a share of total 17%
investment
Payments made digitally 28%
Households subscribing to online video
36%
98% streaming services
Freelancers who have done work online 42%
Americans who get news from online 51%
aggregators
Adults with smartphones 64%

Households with broadband 73%


10% 10%
ICT as a share of GDP, taking
into account price effects Adults who use social media 74%

Taxes that are e-filed 85%

5%
ICT Sectors as a share of GDP
in official statistics
5% Adults who use the Internet 87%

Millennials who regularly use e-mail 90%


Americans with access to high-speed
98%
wireless Internet

McKinsey & Company | 2


More to come as more technologies (mostly digital)
continue to transform the economy
Disruptive Dozen – Selected for scope and scale over next 10 years

IT and how we use it New building blocks More…

Blockchain/
Cryptocurrencies

Human-Computer
Mobile Cloud Internet of AI, Machine-learning Next-generation Advanced Interfaces (AR, VR etc)
internet technology Things (IoT) Automation of genomics materials
knowledge work Digital IDs/Biometrics
Machines at work Rethinking energy comes of age
Quantum Computing

Advanced Autonomous and 3D printing Energy Advanced oil and Renewable


robotics near-autonomous storage gas exploration energy
vehicles and recovery

SOURCE: McKinsey Global Institute analysis McKinsey & Company | 3


Three opportunities and challenges

1. Digitization for growth, productivity and innovation


2. Digitization of Globalization

3. Digitization of work

___
Foundations to get right

McKinsey & Company | 4


Extent of Digitization varies by sector Relatively low
digitization
Relatively high
digitization

MGI Sector Digitization Index Digital leaders within relatively un-digitized sectors
2015 or latest available US data
Assets Usage Labor
Overall Digital Digital Digital GDP Emplyment Productivity
digiti- Digital asset Trans- Inter- Business Market spending capital Digitization share share growth, 2005–142
Sector zation1 spending stock actions actions processes making on workers deepening of work % % %
ICT 6 1.5 6.4
1 Knowledge-intensive sectors,
Media 2 1 4.2
1 highly digitized
Professional services 7 8 -0.6
Finance and insurance 7 5 -1.2
Wholesale trade 6 4
2 Capital-intensive,
0.6
potential to
4 further digitize their assets
Advanced manufacturing 3 2 2.1
Oil and gas 2 0.7 -3.6
Utilities
2 2 0.3 0.4
Chemicals and pharmaceuticals 2 3 Service 1.1
0.5
sectors with long tail of
Basic goods manufacturing 6 4
small firms
0.6
having room to
5 digitize customer transactions
Mining 1 0.3 -1.5
Real estate  13 4 0.3

Transportation and warehousing  3 34 B2B sectors


-0.3 with the potential to
3 digitally-0.8
engage and interact with
Education  1 2
their customers and users
Retail trade  6 10 0.0

Entertainment and recreation 1 2 -0.2


Personal and local services 6 125
Labor-intensive
-0.4
sectors with the
potential to provide digital tools
Government  13 13 0.3
and skills to their workforce
Health care 7 11 -0.1
Hospitality  6 3 7 -1.0
Construction 4 56 Large, localized,
-1.5 low productivity
Agriculture and hunting 1 2
could transform
1.5
for productivity
and delivery of services

SOURCE: BEA; BLS; US Census; IDC; Gartner; McKinsey social technology survey; McKinsey Payments Map; LiveChat customer satisfaction report; Appbrain;
US contact center decision-makers guide; eMarketer; Bluewolf; Computer Economics; industry expert interviews; McKinsey Global Institute analysis McKinsey & Company | 5
5

Gap widening between the most digitized and the rest

4.1x increase in
digitization

1.7x increase in
Leading sectors in 1997 = 100%
digitization

Rest of US
economy,
degree of
digitization 8% 12% 14%
relative to leaders
1997 2005 2013

McKinsey & Company | 6


Established
Even among businesses, there is a large gap between Emerging

digital leaders and the rest 5


Med
Low

Digital Quotient score (sample of large corporations)


84

74

64

54

44

Average = 34
Emerging Established
leaders leaders
24

14

McKinsey & Company | 7


Digital “haves” and “have-mores”

Faster revenue growth 3x faster profit and Higher productivity 2x faster wage growth
margin growth and innovation
$
+…

McKinsey & Company | 8


Three opportunities and challenges

1. Digitization for growth, productivity and transformational innovation

2. Digitization of Globalization
3. Digitization of work

___
Foundations to get right

McKinsey & Company | 9


Cross-border data flows surging and connecting more
countries, companies and people
Size of bubble represents intraregional
used bandwidth
Used cross-border bandwidth
20051
2014 Regions Bandwidth
Gigabits per second (Gbps)
4.7 Terabits
100% = 211.3 Tbps per second (Tbps)
NA
United States and Canada <50

EU
Europe 50–100

EU
AS
EU Asia 100–500
NA

45x
NA AS LA
AS Latin America 500–1,000

MEME
ME
Middle East 1,000–5,000

AA
AA
AF Africa 5,000–20,000
LA OC
LA
OC
Oceania >20,000

McKinsey & Company | 10


Individuals engaging globally, increasingly enabled by digital

Social networking users with at least International Cross-border


one foreign connection travelers e-commerce shoppers
914 million 429 million 361 million

People living outside Cross-border Cross-border Students studying


home country online workers online students abroad
244 million 44 million 13 million 5 million
NOTE: Numbers adjusted to account for overlap between platforms and for individuals making multiple international trips in the same year.

SOURCE: Facebook; AliResearch; US Department of Commerce; OECD; World Bank; McKinsey Global Institute analysis McKinsey & Company | 11
Three opportunities and challenges

1. Digitization for growth, productivity and innovation

2. Digitization of Globalization

3. Digitization of work

___
Foundations to get right

McKinsey & Company | 12


Labor Market Platforms Emerging
Examples

[7,999 job [364 million


Platforms matching searches/minute] [24 million
members]
individuals with jobs visitors/month]

Platforms for [12.5 million users] [6,500 workers]


“OnDemand” work
[25,000 service
providers]
[1 million drivers] [14,300,000 users]

Talent management
tools for recruiting and
training

1 All companies are illustrative and not exhaustive, many span multiple functions

McKinsey & Company | 13


Automation potential in high-wage, high-skill occupations as
well as low-wage, low-skill occupations
Comparison of wages and automation potential for US jobs
Ability to technically automate Over next 10 years
Percentage of time on activities1 that can be automated by adapting currently demonstrated technology
▪ 44% of activities ($2.2 trillion
100
in wages) likely automated…
File clerks
80 but only <5% of whole
occupations likely to be fully
60 automated

40 ▪ At least 30% of
Landscaping and activities in 60% of
groundskeeping workers
20
occupations likely
automated, redefining most
occupations
0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Hourly wage
$ per hour

SOURCE: O*Net 2014 database; McKinsey analysis McKinsey & Company | 14


Historical rate of middle-skill job automation Estimate
Hi Lo
could double Med Base

US middle-skill occupations displaced due to technological change


% of middle-skill occupations

9
8
7
6
5
4

1959–69 1969–79 1979–89 1989–99 1999–2007 2007–15 2015–25

2 3 5 5 6 6 12
Millions of middle-skill
occupations displaced

McKinsey & Company | 15


Three opportunities and challenges
1. Digitization for growth, productivity and innovation

2. Digitization of Globalization

3. Digitization of Work

___
Foundations to get right

McKinsey & Company | 16


Foundations to get right

Data and Privacy


To fully capture benefits to:
Internet access
▪ Economy (growth, productivity, Cybersecurity
and Governance
competitiveness)
Measurement
▪ Businesses and entrepreneurs and
▪ Individuals (workers, classification
consumers, citizens) challenges

▪ Society Policy-making Work and Wage


for a Digital era effects

Skill, Capability,
Infrastructure
gaps

McKinsey & Company | 17

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