Using Monte Carlo simulation for overall distribution

system reliability worth assessment

Y.0u and L.Goel

Abstract: This paper describes a Monte Carlo simulation approach to overall distribution system
reliability worth assessment and illustrates it by application to the distribution systems of all the five
load buses associated with a complex test system. The paper presents the results of a series of
simulations studying the impacts of various probability distributions for restoration times on the two
reliability worth indices, namely load point expected cost (ECOST) and interrupted energy assessment
rate (IEAR). Different radial system operating philosophies are incorporated and their impacts are
analysed. Furthermore, the contributions from radial segment and subtransmission failure modes,
such as fxst-order active failures, first-order total failures and all the possible second-order
overlapping failures, to overall distribution worth indices are analysed. AU the mformation generated
by the simulation studies can provide useful reference to the electric power utilities and planners in the
decision-making stage.

1 Introduction various classes of customers in the system. The SCDF val-

The basic objective of a modern power system is to satisfy
the system load requirements as economically as possible
and with a reasonable assurance of continuity and quality.
A given level of service reliability can be examined in terms
of the costs and the worth to the consumer of providing
this supply. Efforts w i t h the electric power industry are
now being directed towards quantifying the worth of elec-
tric service reliability to its consumers. This paper relates
specifically to the evaluation of distribution system reliabil-
ity worth.
The distribution system is that portion of the electric
power system which links the bulk power source(s) to the
consumer’s facilities. Distribution systems can be generally
classified into subtransmission and radiallmeshed segments.
Outages in distribution systems tend to have localised
effects and therefore there is the perception that these out-
ages do not contribute significantly to the overall customer
supply inadequacy. Customer outage statistics clearly show
[l, 21 that the distribution functional zone makes the great-
est single contribution to customer supply inadequacy.
These statistics reinforce the need to evaluate adequacy
indices and reliability worth indices in distribution systems.
Direct evaluation of reliability worth is very difficult and
a practical alternative, whch is being widely utilised, is to
evaluate the impacts and monetary losses incurred by cus-
tomers due to electric power supply failures. One conven-
ient way to interpret customer interruption costs is in the
form of customer damage functions (CDF). The CDF can
be determined for a given customer type and aggregated to
produce sector customer damage functions (SCDF) for
OIEE, 1999
ZEE Proceedrizgs online no. 19990542
DOL lO.l049hpgtd:I9990542
Paper first received 16th December 1998 and in revised form 7th May 1999
The authom are with the School of EEE, Block S1,Nanyang Technological
University, Nanyang Avenue, Singapore 639798
IEE Proc.-Gener. Transm. Distrib., Vol. 146, No. 5, September 1999
ues obtained from Canadian surveys [3] are utilised in all
the studies described in this paper. The expected cost
(ECOST) of supply interruptions for each load point and
the intempted energy assessment rate (IEAR) linked with
system unreliability are used as reliability worth indices in
this paper.
There are two main categories of reliability worth evalua-
tion methods: Monte Carlo simulation method and analyt-
ical methods. Monte Carlo simulation method is currently
receiving considerable attention as the simulation method is
quite general and is not restricted to situations in which
component behaviour follows constant transition rates or
the state residence times are exponentially distributed. The
failure times can normally be assumed to be exponentially
distributed because the components operate in their useful
or operating life periods. But the distributions of practical
restoration times are generally unknown and dfierent dis-
tributions of restoration times may result in very different
results of load point ECOST and IEAR. To investigate the
realistic characteristics of load point ECOST and IEAR
and achieve more detailed information, a Monte Carlo sim-
ulation method is utilised in this paper.
2 Monte Carlo simulation method
Various approaches can be followed when performing
Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) on electric power systems.
The approach utilised in this paper is the state duration
samphng approach [3]. Programs have been developed to
simulate the performance of the distribution systems of an
educational power system designated as the RBTS [4].
The first step in this approach is to obtain the artificial
up-town operating history of each individual component.
The dfierently distributed duration times can be generated
using their corresponding conversion methods [3].Once the
history of each component has been obtained, the history
of each failure event can be deduced then. The values of
the three reliability indices contributed by each failure event
can be calculated by:
535

Y EEh6'dk is the sum of EENsradand EENSsd. IEARd, can
r=- TTR (hr/occ) (2)
N
U = Xr (hr/yr) (3)
where A, r and U are the failure rate, outage time and
annual unavailability of this failure event respectively; N is
the number of times this failure takes place during one s h -
ulation period; TTF is the up time of the event during one
simulation period and TTR is the total down time of the
event.
Analysing the effect of each event on the load point relia-
bility indices, the load point failure rate A, outage time r
and annual unavailability U can be deduced. Combining
the value of load point il,r , U, the data of SCDF and the
load connected to the load point, the corresponding load
point ECOST and IEAR can be obtained using the follow-
ing equations:
N used to perform the simulation in this paper. The complete
E C O S T ~= C Cj,p(rj)-Lav,p*Xj (k$/yr) (4)
j=1
N of residential, government and institutional (G&I) users,
EENS, = x L a v , p * u j ( M W ~ / Y ~ () 5 )
j=1
where for load point p connected to the network, rj is out-
age time due to event j and 3Li, 9
are the corresponding
failure rate and annual unavadabdity, respectively; CJp is
the cost of interruption for load point p due to event j and
La, is the average connected load at load point p ; EENS,
is d e expected energy not supplied at load point p.
For each simulation period, the load point ECOST and
IEAR values can be generated using the above stated
method. N times of simulation will produce a series of load
point ECOST and IEAR values from which the complete
probability distributions, the average or expected values
and the variances can be determined. Both radial segment
and subtransmission system reliability worth indices can be
deduced using the above method.
Based on radial segment and subtransmission system reli-
ability worth indices, overall distribution system reliability
worth assessment can be conducted by following three
main steps:
1. Calculate the load point ECOST and EENS due to
outages from radial distribution systems: ECOSTrod and
EENsrad.
2. Calculate the load point ECOST and EENS due to
outages from subtransmission systems: ECOSTsd and
EEiVSd.
3. Overall distribution system reliability worth index
ECOSTdis is the sum of ECOSTrad and ECOSTsUhand
then be easily deduced. This step utilises the following
equations:
ECOSTdis,, = ECOSTrad,, + ECOSTSub,, (7)
(9)
where ECOST&,, EENsdk,p and IEARdiyP are load point
expected interruption cost, expected energy not supplied
and interrupted energy assessment rate respectively at load
point p due to outages from the overall distribution system.
3 Test system and SCDF
A six-busbar test system designated as the RBTS [4, 51 was
single line diagram of the RBTS is shown in Appendix A.
The distribution network at bus 2, comprising 22 load
points, represents a typical urban type network consisting
small users and commercial customers. The distribution
network at bus 4 comprising 38 load points, also represents
a typical but more complex urban type network consisting
of residential, small users and commercial customers. The
rural distribution test system used in all studies described in
this paper is the RBTS bus 6 network. This system serving
40 customer load points includes agricultural (farm), small
industrial, commercial and residential customers. The typi-
cal industrial and large user distribution is the RBTS bus 3
network. This system has small industrial, large user, ofice
building, residential, and commercial customers. There are
44 load points in this network. The distribution network at
bus 5 represents a typical urban type network consisting of
residential, G&I, office and buildings, and commercial cus-
tomers distributed across 26 load points.
Table 1 shows the cost of interruption data (SCDF) in
$/kW of peak demand for seven sectors using a 1988 Cana-
dian $ base. The sector types used are large users (Lg.Us.),
small industrial users (Sm.Ind.), commercial users
( C o d . ) , farm users (Agric.), residential users (Resdl.),
government and institutional users (G&I) and office space
users (0ff.U~).
4 Impacts of restoration time probability
distributions
The conventional analytical approach to distribution sys-
tem reliability worth evaluation is to assume that each com-
ponent can be' represented as a Markov model. The
probability density functions of time to failure, time to

Table 1: Cost of interruptions in $/kW for various sectors (SCDF)

Duration Sector vpe

Lg.Us. Srnhd. Comrnl. Agric. Resdl. G&l ' 0ff.U~.
1 1.005 1.625 0.381 0.060 0.001 0.044 4.778
20 1.508 3.868 2.969 0.343 0.093 0.369 9.878
60 2.225 9.085 8.552 0.649 0.482 1.492 21.065
240 3.968 25.163 31.317 2.064 4.914 6.558 68.830
480 8.240 55.808 83.008 4.120 15.690 26.040 119.160

536 IEE Proc.-Gener. Transm. Distrih., Vol. 146, No. 5. September 1999
repair, time to switching and time to reclosure are assumed which have no transformer, the component repair time and
to be exponential in a Markov system. Transition rates are switching time are much smaller and the effect of the non-
constant, which implies that the time duration spent in the linearity of SCDF is relatively small. Therefore, their IEAR
state is exponentially distributed. But in reality, the assump- obey similar changing patterns for various restoration time
tion of exponential state residence times may be invalid for probability distributions.
many restorable components. The time to failure can in
many cases be considered exponentially distributed but the
time to restore (repair, switching and reclosure) cannot be 90
assumed to be exponentially distributed [3, 61. Therefore,
there is a need to investigate the impacts of various distri- 70
butions of restoration times on load point ECOST and
IEAR. k
\
60
Exponential, normal, lognormal and gamma distribu- 50
tions are the four important distributions in reliability eval- I-
In LO
0
uation [3]. Six combinations of repair time and other 30
restoration time (switching time and reclosure time) distri-
butions were studied and are described in ths paper, whch 20
were also chosen by many researchers [3, 71. It must be 10
clearly emphasised that any nonexponential probability dis- 0
tribution could have been easily selected for the simulation cosel case2 cose 3 coseL cose 5 cose 6
a
studies. However, only a few selected probability distribu-
tions were used to describe the restoration times (switching/
25
repairheplacement), as these have been widely used in the m
reported literature [3]. Only scheduled maintenance outage
is not a random event. In addition, the times to failure of
all components were assumed to be exponentially distrib-
uted because the components operate in their useful or
operating life periods. These six cases are listed as follows:
repair time other restoration time
Case 1: exponential exponential
c o s e l cose 2 case3 cose L cose 5 c a s e 6
Case 2: exponential lognormal b
Case 3: lognormal exponential bus3 LP27(o)
bus2. L p 1 bus3.LP27 [ X I b u s ~ ; ~ p 1 6 ( b )
Case 4: gamma, exponential 0bus 1,LP16 bus 5 , LP17 bus 6, LP18

Case 5: normal lognormal Fig. 1 Loadpoint ECOST & IEAR ofloarlpointswhich have trmformers
a ECOST
b IEAR
Case 6: lognormal lognormal
The results of load point ECOST and IEAR due to overall
distribution system outages for all the five load buses of the
RBTS for all these six combinations are shown in Appen- n
dix C.l of [8]; the results of selected load points in the L 12
RBTS are shown in Figs. la, lb, 2a and 2b. %

It can be seen from Figs. la and b that for those load

2 10
Y

points whch have transformers, their ECOST and IEAR g 8

for case 2 and case 4 are quite comparable with those of 0
U 6
W
case 1. In contrast, the difference between their ECOST C
and IEAR for case 3, case 5 and case 6 and those for case 2
1 are large. The values of ECOST for cases 3, 5 and 6 are 0
also relatively larger than those for case 1. There is there- case1 case2 case3 coseL case5 cose6
fore a need to consider the probability distributions of res- a
toration times to obtain realistic reliability worth indices. Or
From Figs. 2a and b, it can also be observed that for 8
those load points which have no transformer and load
point 32 of bus 6, their ECOST change in the same way as f
that for the above load points. However, their IEAR are
e 6
Cff

sunilar and comparable for all the six cases. This suggests I
Y
6 '
that for such load points, IEAR is a relatively stable index w
and it is possible to use case 1 to represent other cases. 2
The difference between the changing law of ECOST and
0 9,
IEAR is due to the nonlinearity of SCDF. For those which
c a s e 1 cos1 ! c a s e 3 cos1 l case5 cose6
have transformer, the transformer repair time (200h) is b
large and it may result in a very large SCDF value. For the
load point 32 of bus 6, because there is no disconnect after bus 3, LP8 [XI bus L , L P 8 bus 6. LP15 m bus 6.LP32
line segment 44, transformer repair time of many load Fig.2 h a d p o i n t ECOST & IEAR of loadpoints which have 110 t r m f i i m -
ers mui loud point 32 of ha 6
points can affect its IEAR, which makes the effect of non- a ECOST
linearity of SCDF not obvious. For those load points b IEAR

IEE Proc -Gener Transm D i m ib , Vol 146, No 5, September 1999 531

5 Impacts of different radial system operating
philosophies
Six case studies described as follows were conducted on the
feeders recognising disconnects in the main feeders, fuses in
the laterals and alternative back-fed supply. The effect due
to replacing the low-voltage transformers with spares as
opposed to repairing them was also investigated. These six
cases of operating phdosophies were also used to investi-
gate the importance of different components in radial sys-
tem for reliability worth assessment.
Case A: disconnects, fuses, alternative supply and trans-
former repair (case used in Section 4).
Case B: no disconnects, no fuses, no alternative supply and
transformer repair.
Case C: no disconnects, fuses, no alternative supply and
transformer repair.
Case D: disconnects, no fuses, alternative supply and trans-
former repair.
Case E: disconnects, fuses, alternative supply and trans-
former replacement.
Case F: disconnects, no fuses, no alternative supply and
transformer repair.
All the results given in this Section assume that the proba-
bility distributions of repair time and switchmg time are
normal and lognormal respectively (Case 5 in Section 4),
because the probability distributions of restoration times
are generally nonexponential. The results of load point
ECOST and IEAR due to overall distribution system out-
ages for all the load buses of the RBTS for all these six
radial system operating philosophies are shown in detail in
Appendix C.2 of [8]; selected results of some load points of
the RBTS for these six cases are shown in Table 2.
It can be seen from Table 2 that the ECOST and IEAR
are the lowest for case E. For all the other five cases, their
IEAR are quite comparable with each other and much
larger than those for case E. For ECOST, case B has the
largest value. All the other cases have lower values of
ECOST among which case E is the lowest. It can also be
easily appreciated from Table 2 that the operating philoso-
phy of replacing transformer with a spare is the most effec-
tive way to reduce the two reliability worth indices. The
existence of disconnects, fuses and alternative supply is also
important to decrease the expected cost due to overall dis-
tribution system outages.
6 Contributions of various outages from the
subtransmission systems
Different types of component failure modes which can be
attributed to subtransmission systems are described in
detail in [6, 91. Some of these modes can be generally classi-
fied as permanent forced outages, temporary failures and
maintenance outages. All these three types of component
failure modes are considered in this study.
The studies described in this paper include all first-order
active failures, first-order total failures and all possible
combinations of overlapping second-order outages: perma-
nent failure overlapping permanent failure (pp), permanent
failure overlapping maintenance outage (pm), temporary
failure overlapping permanent failure (pt) and temporary
failure overlapping maintenance outage (tm).
All the results given in ths Section assume that the prob-
ability distributions of repair time and other restoration
times are normal and lognormal respectively. The radial
system operating philosophy is Case A in Section 5.
Table 3 lists the load point ECOST results for some load
points of all the five load buses of the RBTS. It can be seen
that for all the load points the influence of the subtransmis-
sion system outages is not very significant (less than 7%).
Relatively speaking, for bus 3 load point 4 and bus 5 load
point 1 the ECOST due to first-order total failure contrib-
utes more than 5% to the total load point ECOST. How-
ever, the contributions of all the other failure modes from
subtransmission system (less than 0.26% in total) are quite
negligible. This is because the subtransmission system relia-
bility assessment for these two buses (bus 3 and 5) includes
the total failure of 138 kV busbar, which has a high failure
rate. It can also be observed from Table 3 that for the load
point of all the other buses (buses 2, 4 and 6), all outages
from the subtransmission system contribute only margin-
ally to the overall load point ECOST (less than 0.17%).

Table 2: Overall load point ECOST and IEAR for six operating philosophies

ECOST (k$/yr) IEAR ($/kWh) ECOST (k$/yr) IEAR ($/kWh)

Bus 2 LP1 Bus 4 LP2
A 22.954193 8.568678 A 20.815561 7.959937
B 147.910872 8.397938 B 148.316360 8.341190
C 23.961292 7.702594 C 23.468006 6.771 199
D 43.302455 8.163407 D 21.905755 7.490067
E 0.951736 1.697807 E 0.742046 1.515853
F 43.098269 8.153880 F 44.840116 8.054632
Bus 3 LP4 Bus 5 LP1
A 18.572063 6.520478 A 17.568624 6.849555
B 137.757294 8.425043 B 120.592972 8.502150
C 19.865577 5.652814 C 18.607552 6.347372
D 36.582565 7.1 06189 D 34.529118 7.347020
E 1.779918 1.871493 E 1.710432 2.000855
F 93.090656 7.924657 F 34.656965 7.359153
Bus6 L P 1 ~
A 7.694576 8.4571 15 D 7.752004 7.941556
B 43.522326 8.497177 E 0.325009 1.596479
C 8.065342 7.092140 F 7.770809 7.957267

538 IEE Proc-Gener. Trunsm. Distrib., Vol. 146, No. 5, September 1999
 Table 3: Load point ECOST for selected load points
ECOST (k$/yr)
Load point
Total Active Istorder pp Pm Pt trn

Bus 3 1.857E+01 2.643E-02 1.072E+00 7.631E-05 2.184E-02 2.465E-07 3.619E-05

LP4 %ECOST 0.14 5.77 0.00 0.12 0.00 0.00
Bus 5 1.757E+01 6.898E-03 9.752E-01 6.162E-06 9.841E-03 3.873E-08 2.317E-05
LPI %ECOST 0.04 5.55 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.00
Bus 2 2.295E+01 1.464E-02 2.391E-03 1.177E-05 1.850E-02 4.816E-08 3.404E-05
LPI %ECOST 0.06 0.01 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.00
Bus 4 2.082E+01 1.526E-02 2.425E-03 1.157E-05 1.950E-02 5.167E-08 3.463E-05
LP2 %ECOST 0.07 0.01 0.00 0.09 0.00 0.00
Bus 6 7.695E+00 4.628E-03 6.833E-04 3.890E-06 6.31 5E-03 1.625E-08 1.137E-05
LP1 %ECOST 0.06 0.01 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.00
active = first-order active failure; 1st order = first-order total failure

7 Contributions from subtransmission system and
radial system
The percentage contributions from the subtransmission sys-
tem and the radial system outages to overall distribution
system load point ECOST values at each customer type
load point are shown for the RBTS buses 2, 3,4, 5 and 6 in
Figs. 3 4 3b, 4 4 4b and 5. It can be seen from the results
that, in general, most of the cost of interruptions is due to
failures in the radial networks. Relatively speaking, the cost
load point ECOST, consequently reducing the correspond-
ing contribution from the subtransmission system outages.
The effect of subtransmission system failures at office
building users (bus 3 & bus 5) can also be explained due to
the steep changing characteristics of the SCDF for ofice
users.
100 -
L

from subtransmission system outages contributes more to \"

tff
80-
the overall load point cost for bus 3 and bus 5 than that for Y
,-- 60-
buses 2, 4 and 6. This is also due to consideration of the In
0
failure of the 138kV busbars. It can also be seen that the U
W
10-
effects of subtransmission system outages at small indus-
20 -
trial users (bus 2, bus 3, bus 4 and bus 6) and large indus-
trial users (bus 3) are quite significant due to the fact that 0. I

the transformers in the laterals at these load points are not resid. smoll G& I com.
included in the analyses. The transformer repair time is
very large and if its outage is included in the radial system
100 -
analysis it may increase significantly the contribution from x
L
the radial system outage to the overall distribution system 2 80-
Y
1oor
s- 60-
0
80 - z] LO-
\"
2 60-
- 20 -
-t 0~ I I
cn
0 LO- resid. smoll com.
U
W
b
20 - 0Yo Sub. % rod.

o r
resid.
I

smoll
rcorn. ,large. off.
I
Fig.4 Percenta e contributions to the overall distribution system ECOST at
h e s 2, 3, 4, 5 umf6
a Bus 2
a b Bus 4

I2Or
100-
L
\" 80-
t
Ye
,-- 60-
In
LO-
W
20 -
0 I I

resid. G&l corn. off. I

b resid. smoll com. form
0 % sub. % rod.
% sub. % rod.
Fig.3 Percentu e contrhtwns to the overall dktribution system ECOST ut
buses 2, 3, 4, 5 a d 6 ' Fig.5 Percentu e contributwm to the overull dirtribution system ECOST at
a Bus 3 buses 2 , 3 , 4 , 5J 6
b Bus 5 Bus 6

IEE Proc.-Gener. Transm. Distrih., Vol. 146, No. 5, September 1999 539
 The results for all the buses are summarised in Table 4, reliability worth indices and the existence of disconnects,
which shows the ECOST and its percentage contributions fuses and alternative supply can also greatly decrease the
from the subtransmission and radial segments withm the cost of customers due to overall distribution system fail-
RBTS. The statistics shown in Table 4 indicate that radial ures. Contributions from different failure outages from
system outages contribute significantly to the total load subtransmission systems and from radial systems to the
point monetary losses (more than 84.97%). The subtrans- overall distribution system worth indices are presented.
mission system failures at bus 3 and 5, however, also affect Most of the monetary losses are due to radial system out-
the total monetary losses significantly (more than 6.52%). ages, but the total failure of 138kV busbar also contributes
much towards the total losses. The information presented
Table 4: Customer load point ECOSTand its percentagecon- in ths paper can be used in making judicious planning
tributions from the subtransmissionand radial systems decisions for overall distribution systems comprising radial
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
segments and subtransmission segments.
ECOST (k$/yr)
Bus %Sub. %Rad.
Total Sub. Rad. 9 References
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former with spare is the most effective way to reduce the 10 Appendix

Fig.6 Complete sbgle line diagram of the RBTS

540 IEE Proc-Gener. Trunsm. Disfrib., Vol. 146, No. 5, September 1999