Egypt and Remnants of Ancien Régime*

Maria Syed

If there were one word that would describe Egypt, it had to be ‘confusion’. Two years
after the onset of the revolution, Egypt is mired with problems, uncertainty and
polarization. Everybody says he is saving revolution, but the crisscross interests of
people are damaging and even reversing it. Mubarak’s ouster would not have been
possible if the Egyptians had not united as one. Unfortunately right after Mubarak, unity
vanished, divisions resurfaced and continue to deepen.

No matter how much one tries to sugarcoat it as a popular mobilization or military move
on popular demand, the overthrow of Morsi remains a coup d’état, a blow to democracy,
deposition of country’s first democratically elected President.

While retaining the portfolio of defense minister and now nominated for the post of
deputy prime minister, General Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi stated the aim is transition to
elected democracy. The army is smart enough to call shots through an arm’s length. It
has facilitated the overthrow, reinstated new people as interim President and Prime
Minister and promised fresh elections. On the face of it, army does not want to run the
country. This would save them from inviting potential wrath of the Egyptian people.

In Egypt, military – Supreme Council of Armed Forces (SCAF) and judiciary Supreme
Constitutional Court (SCC) are the most powerful elements of the old regime that
continue to pose challenges. The remnants of the ancien régime i.e., powerful elites
always attempt to destabilize the new regime in power. The loss of power and privilege
they enjoyed under the ancien régime’s rule is what they aim to make up for. Earlier on
army made several moves to mould the revolution to its advantage. Foreseeing a
possible victory of Muslim Brotherhood, just before the second round of presidential
elections, working in tandem the SCC rendered the law under which elections were held
unconstitutional, and the army assumed legislative powers on temporary basis. Once
again army and judiciary are complicit in reversing the revolutionary outcome as the
new interim president Adly Mansour is the head of the constitutional court.

Morsi is not without his share of blames. His poor economic performance can be
passed for anyone in his place could not have done much in a year but his political
mismanagement proved disastrous. He seemed to be getting all too powerful as a
President. Despite the opposition voiced against him, he refused to adopt a conciliatory
approach towards them.

Some exterior forces are also vying for continuity in policies of ancien régime and
resisting change. Though resistance is not evident in official statements coming from
these forces but sometimes actions speak louder than words. Evident through the
showering of aid that came right after deposition of Morsi. IMF loan that was so hard to
come by, came on its own. Various Arab states have pledged $12 billion in aid that
Egypt is now mulling over refusing to IMF saying that Arab aid will get it through. US, on
its part, not has suspended aid to Egypt despite the law saying that aid be cut off to a
country that undergoes a military coup.

The broader implications of overthrow of Morsi are grave. It sets a dangerous

precedence for those in the region who want to take the democratic path particularly the
Islamists. It would force them to turn to violence for fulfillment of their goals. Siege of
Gaza after Hamas electoral victory also serves as a constant reminder to them. The
solution lies in acceptability of Islamists forces, they do represent the will of majority of
the people through ballot box.

Egypt reminds of Algeria in 1990’s where the elected Islamist government was
dismissed by the liberal army. What happened in Egypt confirms the speculations that
liberals and secularists in Egypt would rather prefer military rule than to be ruled by the
Islamists. True that liberals and other factions of the society were sidelined in the
constitution-making process last year. Yet, if they adopt the same approach and keep
Muslim Brotherhood out now, it would only add to the troubles and would destabilize the
country further. The fear is that if things remain as they are today in Egypt – violence
and social divisions rife in the society -- a civil war may break out. Reconciliation and
political inclusiveness is the only way out. Egyptians only have to look at its
neighbourhood to be aghast at path of polarization.