Assignment No.

2
Q1.
a) P (A) =2.3 not possible because probability of an event can’t exceed 1. 0≤P (A)≤ 1.
b) Given
P(Complement of A)=0.7 And P(A)=0.7
As we now

P(A) = 1 – P(𝐴̅ )
= 1 – 0.7
= 0.3
So 0.3 ≠ 0.7 so the above equation is wrong
c) P(A or B)= 1.0 if P(A) = 0.2 and P(B)=0.5
P(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 1.0
P(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = P(A) + P(B) – P(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
1 = 0.2 + 0.5 - P(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
P(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = - 0.3
Probability of an event can’t be negative, so above equation is wrong.
d) P(A and B) = - 0.2
We are given P(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)= - 0.2, which is not possible because probability of an event
cannot be negative.
Q2. Given P(A) = 0.42, P(B) = 0.50 and P(A and B) = 0.20
a) P(A or B)
P (A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P (A and B)
= 0.42 + 0.50 – 0.20
= 0.92 -0.20
= 0.72
b) P ( The complement of B)
P(B) = 1 - P(𝐵̅ )
P(𝐵̅ ) = 1 – P(B)
= 1 – 0.50
= 0.50
c) P( the complement of the event “A or B”)

P(𝐴̅ ∪ 𝐵̅ ) = 1 - P(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
= 1 – 0.20
= 0.80
 d) P(A|B)
P(𝐴∩𝐵)
P(A|B) =
𝑃(𝐵)
0.20
=
0.50
= 0.40

e) P(B|A)

P(𝐴∩𝐵)
P(B|A) =
𝑃(𝐴)

0.20
=
0.42

= 0.48
f) Are events A and B independent? Please use probabilities to justify your answer.

Two events say A and B are independent only if

P(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴)𝑃(𝐵)
P(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0.20, P(A) = 0.42 and P (B) =0.50 are given
So if , 0.20 = 0.42 * 0.50 then events are independent else not

0.20 ≠ 0.21
Hence Events A and B are not independents.
Q3.
Total Number of employees = 144
a) Probability that he is from the Uptown branch
100
P(Uptown Branch) =
144
= 0.6944
b) Probability that he plans to be with the company one year from now
132
P(He says Yes) =
144
= 0.9166
c) Probability that he is from Downtown branch and plan to be with company one year from now.
40
P( Downtown branch and Says Yes) =
144
 = 0.2777

d) Probability that he is from Uptown branch and does not plan to be with company one year from
now.

P( Uptown branch or Says No) = P(Uptown Branch) + P(Says No) – P(Uptown branch and Says NO)
100 12 8
= + -
144 144 144
104
=
144
= 0.7222

e) Probability that he is from Downtown branch If he plans to be with the company one year from
now.
40
P (Downtown branch and Says Yes) =
144
= 0.2777

f) Probability that he plans to be with the company one year from now given that he is from the
Uptown branch
P (He plans to be with company one year from now) = P (A)
P (Uptown Branch) = P (B)

P(𝐴∩𝐵)
P(A|B) =
𝑃(𝐵)
92⁄
= 144
100⁄
144
92
=
100
= 0.92

g) Are the events “Downtown Branch” and “plans to be with the company one year from now”
independent? Justify your answer.
Events are independent only if
P(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴)𝑃(𝐵)
P (Downtown Branch) = P (A)
P (Says Yes) = P (B)
Now,
P(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0.2777
P (A) = 44/144, P (B) = 40/144
P(A)*P(B)= 0.0848
So,

P(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) ≠ 𝑃(𝐴)𝑃(𝐵)
 So the above events are not independents

Q4.

Event A = visitors to the online store made a purchase

Event B = visitors to the online store did not made a purchase

Event W = visitors came back to the online store through web engine

Given: P (A) = 45% = 0.45, P (B) = 1 - P (A) = 1 - 0.45 = 0.55

Then, P (W|A) = 40% = 0.40, P (W|B) = 15% = 0.15.

P (visitor will make a purchase given he/she came to the online store though a web engine) =

P (A|W)

Now, using Baye's Theorem to calculate the conditional probability

𝑃(𝑊 |𝐴)∗𝑃(𝐴)
P(A|W) =
𝑃(𝑊 |𝐴)∗𝑃(𝐴)+𝑃(𝑊 |𝐵 )∗𝑃(𝐵)
0.40 ∗ 0.45
=
0.40 ∗ 0.45 + 0.55 ∗ 0.15
0.18
=
0.2625
=0.6857

Q5.

a) Find the value of W

W= 1 – (0.15 + 0.20 + 0.45)
= 1 – 0.8
= 0.2
b) What is the probability that the company has a net income of less than $1 million in the coming
year?
P (Company has a net income less than $1 in coming year) = F(-2) +F(0)
= 0.15 + 0.20
= 0.35
c) What is the probability that the company is not profitable (net income less than 0 in coming
year)?
P (Not Profitable)= F(-2)
= 0.15
d) What is the probability that the company makes more than $0.5 million in the coming year?
P (Company makes more than $0.5 million) = F (1) + F (2)
= 0.45 + 0.2
= 0.65
 e) What is the expected net income for ABC limited, i.e. what is the expected value of this
probability distribution?
Expected value of probability distribution= 1.4
f) What is the standard deviation of this function?
Standard deviation = 1.456

Q6.

a) Yes, the selection of 18 customers is a binomial experiment. Because here the events are
independent.
b) P(X) = nCr px (1 – p)n-x
n = no. of trails
x = no. of desired successes
p = prob. Of getting success in one trail
q = 1 – p = prob. Of failure

p = 25/100 = 0.25
q = 0.75
n = 18
x=5
P(x) = 18C5 (0.25)5(0.75)13

18!
= (0.00097)(0.023)
5!13!
18!
=5!13!0.00002231
=0.1911
c) P(X≤ 4) = 1 – [P(X=3) + P(X=2) + P(X=1)]
P(X = 3) = 18C3 (0.25)3(0.75)15
P(x = 2) = 18C2 (0.25)2(0.75)16
P(X = 1) = 18C1 (0.25)1(0.75)17
P(X≤ 4) = 1 – [0.17038 + 0.0958 + 0.03382]
= 1 – 0.3000
=0.7
d) P(X ≥ 4) = P(X=4) + P(X=3) + P(X=2) + P(X=1)
P(X=4) = 18C4 (0.25)4(0.75)14
= 0.21263
P(X=3) = 0.17038
P(X=2) = 0.0958
P(X=1) = 0.03382
P(X≥ 4) = 0.21263 + 0.17038 + 0.0958 +0.03382
= 0.51263
e) P(3≤ 𝑋 ≤ 6) = P(X=3) + P(X=4) + P(X=5)
P(X=5) = 18C5 (0.25)5(0.75)13
P(X=5) = 0.000946
P(X=4) = 0.21263
 P(X=3) = 0.17038
P(3≤ 𝑋 ≤ 6) = 0.000946 + 0.21263 + 0.17038
= 0.383956

Q7

a) Expected no. of calls in one hour is 20 calls.

b) Probability that exactly two customers arriving at the drive-through lane in a nine-
minutes interval is 0.2240.
c) Probability that less than two customers arrive at the drive-through lane a nine- minute’s
interval is 0.1991.
d) Probability that two or more customers arrive at the drive-through lane a nine-minutes
interval is 0.8009