Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
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ADVISORY BODY
MEMBERS: STEFFEN ABELE, KLAUS FROHBERG,
MONIKA HARTMANN, ALAN MATTHEWS AND
PETER WEINGARTEN
JANUARY 2004
This Assessment Report is based on information provided by the country experts of the
Network of Independent Agricultural Experts in the CEE Candidate Countries.
The country experts contributing to this Assessment Report are:
Estonia: Mati Sepp
Latvia: Matthew Gorton
Lithuania: Natalija Kazlauskiene
William H. Meyers
Poland: Waldemar Guba
Czech Republic: Françoise Simon
Tomas Ratinger
Slovak Republic: Marian Bozik
Jerzy Michalek
Hungary: Martin Banse
Tibor Ferenczi
Slovenia: Stefan Bojnec
Jernej Turk
Romenia: Graham E. Dalton
Crina Sinziana Turtoi
Maria Magdolna Vincze
Bulgaria: Plamen Dimitrov Mishev
Nedka Momtscheva Ivanova
Sophia Davidova
Prepared under contract no. 029506 of the European Commission, Agricultural Directorate General.
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 3
CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.............................................................................................5
1 Introduction: Aim and structure of the study ..........................................................9
2 Food Consumption ......................................................................................................9
2.1 Method of analysis............................................................................................................9
2.2 General determinants of consumption ............................................................................10
2.3 Methodological approach of the study............................................................................11
References ......................................................................................................................34
Annex I:............................................................. Consumption and food demand issues 35
Annex II: .....................................................................Animal production and feed-use 65
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 4
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This Assessment Report aims to find out what the determining demand factors are within the
extended EU food markets by discussing food demand and feed use, elaborating on meat and
dairy demand in the past and their prospects for the future. Most of the assessment is based on
judgement of the country experts of the Network of Independent Experts in the CEE
Candidate Countries (CEEC).
Although food consumption usually follows a rather steady pattern, the animal diseases that
occurred during recent years have made it much more dynamic in case of certain products.
BSE, foot and mouth disease and swine fever have had a severe impact on food markets in the
EU causing demand for meat to decrease rapidly. Simultaneously, attitudes towards quality
and origin of food seem to have changed, the perception of increasing the chances of better
health by eating so called "functional food" is an important issue of marketing, while ethical
aspects of animal husbandry have also entered people's consciousness. These developments
are of high importance for the analysis.
The Report provides an assessment of meat and dairy consumption in the nineties, which
concludes that meat consumption generally faced a sharp decline during the period in almost
all accession countries, amounting to 10-20 % of the consumption level of the late eighties.
This however, took place with great differences among the countries. The only country with a
positive development of meat consumption is Slovenia, where meat consumption sharply
increased by 80 percent. The main cause of this increase however is probably due to changes
in the Slovenian statistical survey.
The decrease in demand for meat varied according to the different types of meat. Beef and
mutton consumption declined sharply while that of pork and poultry developed positively. An
income effect and a substitution effect could be observed with the former being stronger than
the latter.
This development was only partly caused by the direct income effects of transition. Income
declined until the early mid-nineties, and recovered from 1995 in most of the countries.
Another part of the decrease of consumption was due to the rising prices of meat. A reduction
of formerly planned and subsidised production yielded in a shortage of supply, rising prices
and finally reduced consumption. Imported meat must have been too expensive to bring
consumption up to the former level. It is also noteworthy that consumption of white meat
grew being relatively low cost and having short production cycles. An additional cause might
be the loss of consumers' confidence especially in beef products after the BSE-crises of the
late nineties.
Milk consumption during the nineties also fell, but unlike total meat consumption it did not -
except for a few countries - recover in the late nineties. The only positive trends can be seen in
Slovenia, Lithuania and Romania.
While milk and milk products show a decline in consumption, the picture here is less diverse
than for meat consumption, which might have statistical reasons, as there is a broader variety
among meat than dairy products. However, it can also be observed that in the dairy sector,
there is increasing demand for high value products, like cheese. Milk consumption in the form
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 6
of fresh milk seems to be highest in the relatively wealthy countries, and in poorest countries,
where there is great reliance on subsistence represented by small farms with only a few cows
that produce and consume on the spot.
Following the consumption patterns of the nineties, the Report delivers an assessment of the
prospects for meat and dairy products, according to which the forecasts of meat
consumption reflect a certain continuation of past developments. Total per capita consumption
is expected to rise only slightly until the end of this decade, but substitution effects are more
dynamic: Beef and veal consumption is expected to decrease slightly, whereas pig meat
consumption will be more stable with a slight increase. Continued growth in poultry meat
consumption is expected. Ovine meat consumption will also decline at a high rate in relative
terms, but at a low rate in absolute terms, as it is already at a low level.
Contrary to meat consumption, forecasts of dairy consumption show a likely, but only slight
decline. Butter and fresh milk consumption will be reduced, but the strongest relative effects
are foreseen for cheese.
According to the detailed consumption prospects for meat as reported by the experts, beef
consumption is expected to experience only a slightly positive trend. High quality beef cuts
are expected to be consumed more in Poland, Romania, the Slovak Republic, the Baltic states
and Slovenia. Consumption of low quality beef cuts is likely to develop negatively in the
Czech Republic, the Slovak Republic and Estonia, whereas in the rest of the region, there is
no change expected. For meat products containing beef, the picture is diverse. In Poland, the
Czech Republic and the Slovak Republic, trends are negative, while in the rest of the countries
trends are neutral or even positive.
Veal will have positive consumption trends in most countries, whereas in the Czech Republic,
the Slovak Republic and Poland, there will be no change.
Pig meat forecasts follow the expected statistical trends, that is high quality cuts are expected
to be demanded in increasing quantities throughout the CEEC-10, except for Poland where the
development will be neutral. Consumption of low quality cuts will decline in Estonia, Poland,
Bulgaria and Romania, whereas only Hungary is expected to experience a rising demand for
low quality cuts. The consumption of pig meat products is also expected to increase, except
for Estonia and Bulgaria.
Mutton and goat meat consumption is expected to rise in most of the countries, except for
Estonia, the Czech Republic and Bulgaria.
The poultry meat forecasts as well as those for poultry meat products are positive with the
exception of Estonia that expects strongly negative consumption developments in this market
segment.
Regarding total meat consumption, the trend is also mainly upwards for meat, as in only two
countries the consumption is anticipated to be stable in the future. The same holds for meat
products, whereas offal consumption is likely to increase only in Romania and the Czech
Republic.
Therefore it can be observed that meat consumption will by and large follow in CEEC-10 the
same trends that can be seen in the EU. The determinants and effects of changes in meat
consumption patterns are income and the related effects of out of home consumption and
growing convenience, prices (especially for poultry), health consciousness and to a lesser
extent environmental consciousness. Ovine meat is seen as having positive perspectives,
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 7
contrary to some forecasts. This type of meat is seen as trendy, positively income elastic and
relatively healthy, however, not to the degree of poultry or pig meat.
According to the detailed consumption prospects for dairy products as stated by the experts, a
positive trend is assumed in dairy consumption in almost all countries except Bulgaria, where
no change is expected in the next decade.
Prospects for the dairy sector seem to be more homogeneous across countries than in the meat
sector, at least as far as the main products are concerned. This can also derive from the fact
that quality differences are more pronounced among meat than dairy products included in the
questionnaire used for the assessment.
The worst expectations are reported for butter, which is the only product with a negative
prospect. Positive expectations for butter consumption only occur in Romania and Hungary.
Cheese is the product with the best expectations for the next decade throughout all the
countries (except for Estonia), closely followed by yoghurt, for which only Bulgaria is
expected to have no changes at all.
Desserts and milk drinks are also expected to develop positively in all the countries, whereas
fresh milk and cream are expected to have a rather moderate growth. Romania is the
exception, where the “fresh milk phenomenon” will continue in the future: A low income and
high income-elasticity for milk products that are of a relative low price are the driving factors
for this development.
Among the determinants and effects of changes in dairy consumption patterns, health
consciousness and convenience have a strong impact, as they outperform positive income
elasticity for butter and cream. Income effects seem to be stronger than for meat and peak
ratings for dairy products, especially for income, are higher than for meat products. Dairy
products are partly seen as substitutes for meat products. Fruit and vegetable products will
substitute products with high fat content.
The Report is concluded with an analysis of feed use. This study is justified because next to
consumption, production forms the opposite end of the production and marketing chain, and
recent developments have shown that these ends are much closer together than one might
expect. Recent occurrences have shown that feeding of animals is controversially discussed
among consumers, and the consequences of the BSE-crisis were that feeding was adjusted,
also because of the pressure from the demand side. An increased consumer demand for white
meat has a consequence that cereals and especially soft wheat will be used to a larger extent
than before, affecting the wheat markets in Europe and beyond.
Assessing feed use from a quantitative and qualitative point of view, the analysis tries to take
into consideration the relationships of different factors influencing feed demand, -production
and -use.
The prospects for feed use are assessed by observing the developments in animal production
and their impact on feed production and use.
The number of livestock heavily depends on the demand for meat and meat products, as well
as milk and milk products. As assessed earlier, the increase in meat demand will mainly affect
white meat, while the demand for red meat will decrease during the next decade. This results
in an increase of poultry stocks and a consequent higher demand for appropriate feed items.
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 8
Pig production is also to increase, so that the use of feed grains will most likely be on the rise.
Beef cattle production is likely to decrease, given the decreasing demand for beef and veal.
The demand for milk products will slightly decrease, but at the same time, there will be a
structural change in the dairy herds: While the number of cows will decrease by 13 percent
until the year 2008, the yield per cow is estimated to increase by 11 percent.
This implies that overall fodder demand will decrease but also the quality structure will
change, as roughage and pasture will be substituted or at least supplemented by protein and
starch containing feedstuffs.
Due to the technological progress that is expected for almost all CEEC, feed conversion will
be improved in all production systems, meaning that less feed will be needed to produce the
same amount of meat. Thus with the exception of cereals and fodder wheat, overall feed
production and consumption will be reduced.
These developments have the following consequences for feed use in the CEEC. The increase
in poultry production will result in higher feed use of cereals, especially wheat, which is
expected to increase by 23 percent from 2000 to 2008. The feed use of coarse grains will also
increase by the high rate of 22.7 percent. Oilseeds are also expected to experience a growth in
feed use, whereas feed potatoes will experience a slight decrease in the next decade.
Cereals will probably play their most important part in poultry and pork production. Protein
feed will be most affected by the developments both in pork and poultry production.
Especially legumes are expected to experience an increase in beef and milk production,
whereas starchy roots will, according to the survey results, not be affected by the changes in
animal production. Despite the expectation of an intensified milk production and a consequent
shift to cereals and protein, pasture and other roughage will still play a major role in beef and
dairy production.
The analysis shows that when looking at technologies that affect feed use, things are more
dynamic than when looking at the production systems themselves. Technological changes will
strongly affect feed use, but – besides a strong increase in protein feed – traditional feeding
systems like pasture or roughage will maintain their share in overall feeding, and even
experience a certain increase. This is also due to a certain awareness that feeding determines
various quality aspects of animal products required by the consumer, and pasture is certainly
seen as healthy both for the animals and for their consumers.
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 9
2 FOOD CONSUMPTION
recently, BSE, foot and mouth disease and swine fever have had a severe impact on food
markets in the EU: Demand for meat in the wake of these disease outbreaks decreased rapidly,
so that market interventions had to be envisaged. Simultaneously, attitudes towards quality
and origin of food seem to have changed: Risks for human health, such as the impact of
residues from veterinary and feed stuff treatments are perceived more sensitively. At the same
time, the perception of increasing the chances of better health by eating so called "functional
food" is an important issue of marketing. Ethical aspects of animal husbandry have also
entered people's consciousness.
All this has had a significant impact on production, processing and marketing of agricultural
products. Biologically safe and ethically correct production will increase costs and thus has to
be passed on to those consumers who are willing to pay for such products. Investments for
quality improvement, but also for product innovation have to be made. Innovative products
might yield higher margins, but it is not yet clear how these benefits will be shared by primary
producers and the processing and trading industries.
characteristics. However, the rating can provide valuable information. Absolute figures
already exist in various reports (see e.g. EUROPEAN COMMISSION 2001). The present study
goes further and does not only assess what will happen, but also why. It therefore closes the
gap between aggregate and descriptive figures on the one hand and modern assessment on the
other hand, and it thus enriches existing studies of demographic factors mentioned above.
Table 2: Reasons for forecasted development by product category
Increase in health consciousness
Trendy product
Increasing level of variety
Change in demographic structure
Growing relevance of convenience
Growing importance of environmental consciousness
Increasing share of off-home food consumption
Increasing relevance of advertisement for competing products (e.g. liquid milk vs. soft drinks)1
Please, assess how the retail price of the good considered will change relative to all other food items.
Please, assess how the expected increase in real income per capita affects the consumption of the
good considered.
Please, indicate whether for the good considered there is a trend towards varieties with higher quality.
Is there expected to be any change in the consumption of competing food items that will affect the
demand of the product considered? If yes, please, name the food items and indicate the direction of
change for the product considered.
What influence can be expected from the integration into the Single Market on the demand of the
product considered?
Remark: 1 Asked only for meat products.
Source: Own questionnaire.
Table 3: Changes in meat consumption (kg p.c. and year) during the nineties
Country Changes from 1989-2000 Changes from 1997-2000,
(in % of 1989 or base year 1,2) (in % of 1997)
Estonia -182 -6
Latvia -492 -7
Lithuania -282 -1
Poland -6 6
Czech Republic -201 -5
Slovak Republic -131 -10
Hungary -17 25
Slovenia 802 2
Romania -16 -5
Bulgaria -21 13
Remark: 1 Data since 1993 (base year), 2 Data since 1992 (base year). From 1992 to 1993, the statistical survey in
Slovenia changed considerably.
Source: Own calculations, data: FAO-Agrostat.
The absolute amount of meat consumption was, by the end of the nineties in most of the
countries below that of the European Union (about 90 kg p.c.) and ranged between 51 kg p.c.
in Romania and 96 kg p.c. in Slovenia, the exception to the rule again, as Slovenia is the only
country where meat consumption exceeds that of the EU-15 in the nineties (Annex I, Table
I.1).
At the end of the nineties, meat consumption recovered in some of the countries, namely
Hungary, Bulgaria and Poland, but not enough to reach pre-transition values. The largest
increases during the period 97-99 were found in Hungary and Bulgaria, while in Slovenia the
slow growth indicated rather saturated markets.
The development of meat consumption in the transition countries, immediately after transition
in the early nineties, was the result of the overall structural adjustment. First of all, income
declined in most of the countries until the mid-nineties and then only slowly recovered in the
second half of the decade. Income recovered long before meat consumption recovered or at
least showed some kind of recovery. Thus, there must have been other reasons for the decline
in meat consumption: Supplies were reduced even more than demand, and the resulting price
increases were a major cause of the fall in purchases. In addition, a much broader scope of
consumption goods was offered so that consumers reconsidered their eating habits. The sharp
reduction in supply was due to the fact that a formerly subsidised sector now had to re-
orientate towards market conditions. Input prices, especially for feedstuffs, increased, and
these costs could not be covered by the market returns. Production decreased, and with the
consequently rising prices demand followed on its way down. Livestock husbandry contracted
substantially reaching the bottom at around the mid-nineties, so that a recovery of supply was
not likely to be achieved with a possible demand-increase in the late nineties. This again
affected prices and consumption. Consequently, as major causes for the sharp fall in meat
consumption in the nineties the restructuring of spending together with the fall in real income
and increases in relative prices for food, especially meat. The latter was also caused by higher
production costs and a shrinking agricultural sector that has not yet recovered (EUROPEAN
COMISSION 1998).
3.1.2 Beef
Beef consumption declined most sharply in the nineties and unlike the case for other kinds of
meat has not recovered so far. The lowest fall was in Romania with –31 percent during the
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 14
nineties and the greatest fall of –68 percent was observed in Latvia. Slovenia was the only
country to have shown an increase of beef consumption in the nineties, but even so in the late
nineties, there was also a decline of – 5 percent (Table 4). This shows that the beef sector was
the one that was most affected by the adjustments described above in section 3.1.1.
Table 4: Changes in beef consumption (kg p.c. and year) during the nineties
Country Changes from 1989-2000 Changes from 1997-2000
(in % of 1989 or base year 1,2) (in % of 1997)
Estonia -572 -24
Latvia -682 -14
Lithuania -612 -23
Poland -53 -14
Czech Republic -621 -41
Slovak Republic -491 -27
Hungary -34 -18
Slovenia 362 -5
Romania -31 -13
Bulgaria -35 10
Remark: 1 Data since 1993 (base year), 2 Data since 1992 (base year). From 1992 to 1993, the statistical survey in
Slovenia changed considerably.
Source: Own calculations, data: FAO-Agrostat.
How highly the beef sector was subsidised can be shown by the fact that before transition, in
many CEE-countries beef consumption was higher than in the EU, especially in the Baltics
where beef production was subsidised by the former Soviet Union. These countries show the
sharpest decline of all (Annex I, Table I.2).
has decreased from a high level to the level of the EU-15. Bulgaria, Romania, Estonia and
Latvia have traditionally had a low level of pig meat consumption but even so the level fell
further in response to declining incomes (Annex I, Table I.3).
3.1.4 Poultry
Poultry consumption has increased since the beginning of transition in most of the countries.
Only Bulgaria, Lithuania and Latvia show a decline of poultry consumption, Lithuania and
Estonia have a declining consumption in the late nineties. In the other countries, the increase
of poultry consumption has slowed in the late nineties, but on the whole poultry is the
booming branch in the CEEC-10 livestock sector (Table 6).
Table 6: Changes in annual poultry consumption (kg p.c.) during the nineties
Country Changes from 1989-2000 Changes from 1997-2000
(in % of 1989 or base year 1,2) (in % of 1997)
Estonia 802 -28
Latvia -22 16
Lithuania -142 -29
Poland 62 9
Czech Republic 851 20
Slovak Republic 461 5
Hungary 63 49
Slovenia 2312 8
Romania 18 9
Bulgaria -15 20
Remark: 1 Data since 1993 (base year), 2 Data since 1992 (base year). From 1992 to 1993, the statistical survey in
Slovenia changed considerably.
Source: Own calculations, data: FAO-Agrostat.
Poultry consumption of Hungary and Slovenia exceeds that of the EU, whereas the Czech
Republic has reached about the EU-level (Annex I, Table I.4).
3.1.5 Mutton and goat
Ovine meat consumption shows the same features as beef consumption: In most of the
countries, except for Slovenia, it has decreased during the nineties. And, except for Bulgaria,
where a slight recovery is seen in the late nineties, this trend has not been turned around at the
time when overall meat consumption began to recover (Table 7).
Table 7: Changes in mutton and goat consumption (kg p.c.) during the nineties
Country Changes from 1989-2000 Changes from 1997-2000
(in % of 1989 or base year 1,2) (in % of 1997)
Estonia -732 0
Latvia -872 0
Lithuania -602 -33
Poland -100 -100
Czech Republic -201 0
Slovak Republic 01 0
Hungary -60 0
Slovenia 3002 133
Romania -32 -11
Bulgaria -18 5
Remark: 1 Data since 1993 (base year), 2 Data since 1992 (base year). From 1992 to 1993, the statistical survey in
Slovenia changed considerably.
Source: Own calculations, data: FAO-Agrostat.
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 16
In most of the ten CEEC, mutton and goat consumption is significantly lower than in the EU.
The exception is Bulgaria, where even after the decrease of the nineties consumption is higher
than in the EU, and Romania. Romanian consumption has fallen over the nineties from a level
originally higher than in the EU. In all the other countries, consumption of ovine meat is and
was on a relatively low level, so that small absolute changes are high in relative terms (Annex
I, Table I.5).
3.1.6 Concluding remarks on the meat consumption in CEEC-10 during the nineties
It can be concluded that whereas the overall demand for meat fell during the nineties the
underlying developments varied according to the type of meat. Beef and mutton consumption
declined sharply while that of pork and poultry developed positively. An income effect and a
substitution effect could be observed with the former being stronger than the latter.
This development was only partly caused by the direct income effects of transition. Income
declined until the early mid-nineties, and recovered from 1995 in most of the countries, except
for Bulgaria that had to face crises in 1996/1997. Another part of the decrease of consumption
was due to the rising prices of meat: A reduction of formerly planned and subsidised
production yielded in a shortage of supply, rising prices and finally reduced consumption.
Imported meat must have been too expensive to bring consumption up to the former level. It is
also noteworthy that consumption of white meat grew being relatively low cost and having
short production cycles. An additional cause might be the loss of consumers' confidence
especially in beef products after the BSE-crises of the late nineties.
Table 8: Consumption of milk* (excl. butter) in CEEC-10 during the nineties (kg
p.c. and year)
Country Changes 1989-2000 Changes 1997-2000
(in % of 1989 or base year 1,2) (in % of 1997)
Estonia -322 27
Latvia -132 -18
Lithuania 222 41
Poland -24 2
Czech Republic -61 10
Slovak Republic -261 -2
Hungary -13 4
Slovenia 122 0
Romania 41 1
Bulgaria -19 0
Remark: * all dairy products except for butter converted back to their primary equivalent, i.e. raw milk.
1
Data since 1993 (base year), 2 Data since 1992 (base year).
Source: Own calculations, data: FAO-Agrostat.
Milk consumption per capita at the end of the nineties was in all of the CEEC-10 lower than
in the EU. It can be assumed that the trend in dairy consumption was induced by the same
factors that made beef consumption decline, namely declining incomes plus on the supply side
rising production costs and downsizing of herds. The absolute values of milk consumption
development are shown in Annex I, Table I.6.
the form of fresh milk seems to be highest in the relatively wealthy countries (consumption of
high value added milk products), and in poorest countries, where there is great reliance on
subsistence represented by small farms with only a few cows that produce and consume on the
spot.
What is also indicated by the above mentioned "fresh milk phenomenon" is the need for
further differentiation of milk products, as differences in socio-cultural factors may explain
some part of the variation in consumption of these goods. An attempt will be made in the
subsequent chapter, to explain both of these for meat and dairy products.
4.1 Overall meat and dairy consumption in CEEC as prospected until 2008
The forecasts of meat consumption reflect a certain continuation of past developments. Total
per capita consumption is expected to rise only slightly until the end of this decade. But
substitution effects are more dynamic: Beef and veal consumption is expected to decrease
slightly, whereas pig meat consumption will be more stable with a slight increase. Continued
growth in poultry meat consumption is expected. Ovine meat consumption will also decline,
at a high rate in relative terms, but at a low rate in absolute terms, as it is already at a low level
(Table 12).
Table 12: Meat consumption prospects for the CEEC-10 (in kg p.c.)
1999 2004 2008 Change '99-'08 (% of 1999)
Beef and veal 9.6 9.3 9.2 -4.2
Pig meat 41.4 40.8 42.1 1.7
Poultry meat 15.4 17.6 19 23.4
Sheep and goat 1.1 0.9 0.8 -27.3
Total per cap. Consumption 67.5 68.6 71.1 5.3
Source: EUROPEAN COMISSION 2001.
Contrary to meat consumption, dairy consumption is likely to decline, but only slightly.
Butter, and fresh milk consumption will be reduced. The strongest relative effects are seen for
cheese, but that only means an absolute increase of 1.6 kg p.c. (Table 13).
Table 13: Dairy consumption prospects for the CEEC-10 (in kg p.c.)
1999 2004 2008 Change '99-'08 (% of 1999)
Milk 227.00 224.00 223.00 -1.8
Butter 2.75 2.69 2.68 -2.6
Cheese 7.50 8.40 9.10 21.3
Total 237.25 235.09 234.78 -1.0
Source: EUROPEAN COMISSION 2001.
account the differences in characteristics of the population of each country. The subsequent
section will briefly assess the different meat products.
Beef is expected to experience only a slightly positive trend. High quality cuts are best off
with an overall trend of 0.67, low quality cuts are worst off with –0.33. These figures reflect
the trend in the individual countries: High quality beef cuts are expected to be consumed more
in Poland, Romania, the Slovak Republic, the Baltics and Slovenia, whereas in Hungary, the
Czech Republic and Bulgaria, it is expected that there will be no increase in consumption of
this product. For low quality beef cuts, the same holds: Consumption is likely to develop
negatively in a third of the countries, namely in the Czech Republic, the Slovak Republic and
Estonia, whereas in the rest of the region, there is no change expected. For meat products
containing beef, the picture is diverse. In Central Europe, namely Poland, the Czech Republic
and the Slovak Republic, trends are negative, while in Eastern and South-Eastern Europe the
trends are neutral or even positive.
Veal will have positive consumption trends, especially in Eastern Europe and Slovenia,
whereas in Central Europe, namely the Czech Republic, the Slovak Republic and Poland,
there will be no change.
Pig meat forecasts follow the expected statistical trends: High quality cuts are expected to be
demanded in increasing quantities throughout the CEEC-10, except for Poland where the
development will be neutral. Consumption of low quality cuts will decline, with a value of
-0.44, that means a negative development in four of the countries (Estonia –2, Poland,
Bulgaria and Romania –1, whereas only Hungary is expected to experience a rising demand
for low quality cuts. More pig meat products are also expected to be consumed except for
Estonia and Bulgaria (both –1).
Mutton and goat meat consumption is expected to rise in most of the countries. Only three of
the countries expect no change at all (Estonia, the Czech Republic and Bulgaria), all the other
countries expect positive changes. It is very interesting, that for this product, and only for this,
expectations of the experts differ from the forecasts of the European Commission.
The poultry meat forecasts are in agreement with the expectations of the statisticians. Breast
meat has the highest score of 1.22, with only one country, Hungary, expected to have stable
consumption (0). Almost the same holds for other poultry meat. The forecasts for poultry meat
products are also positive with some exceptions, namely Estonia that expects strongly
negative consumption developments in this market segment.
Regarding total meat consumption, the trend is also mainly upwards for meat, as in only two
countries, the consumption is anticipated to be stable in the future. The same holds for meat
products, whereas offal consumption is likely to decrease in most of the countries, except for
Estonia, Hungary and Slovenia (no change at all), and Romania and the Czech Republic
(positive trend).
Looking at the above discussed facts, the anticipated consumption of different types of meat
seems to be diverse enough to be able to assess in detail the reasons for differences in future
consumption trends.
21
Table 14: Expert ratings for the development of meat consumption in CEEC-10*
Country Beef Veal Pig meat Mutton Poultry meat Meat total
and goat
meat
high Low meat High Low meat Breast other meat meat meat prod-ucts Offal (e.g.
quality quality products quality quality products meat poultry products (e.g. sausages, liver,
cuts cuts containing cuts cuts containing meat containing ham) kidneys)
primarily primarily primarily
beef pig meat poultry meat
Estonia 1 -1 0 1 1 -2 -1 0 1 1 -2 1 0 0
Lithuania 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 -1
Latvia n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Poland 1 0 -1 0 0 -1 0 1 2 1 1 0 0 -1
Czech 0 -1 -1 0 1 0 1 0 2 2 2 1 1 1
Republic
Slovak 1 -1 -1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 -1
Republic
Hungary 0 0 1 1 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0
Slovenia 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0
Romania 1 0 1 1 2 -1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1
Bulgaria 0 0 0 0 1 -1 -1 0 1 1 1 0 0 -1
Simple 0.67 -0.33 0.00 0.56 1.11 -0.44 0.44 0.67 1.22 0.78 0.67 0.78 0.67 -0.22
average
Remark: * Expectation of demand changes: -2: strongly negative, -1 negative, 0: no change, 1: positive, 2: strongly positive
Source: Own calculations based on the experts' ratings.
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 22
explain both the overall effect described in section 4.2.1, and also the neo-classical categories
discussed above.
The change in demographic structure is a wide field and comprises change of age structure,
change of household size and marital structures, migration from rural to urban areas and many
other variables. According to the experts, these changes will, however, result mainly in
declining consumption of beef and beef products, but will apparently not influence much the
consumption of other meat products. In order to interpret it properly, a demographic study
should be fed into the analysis, which cannot be done within the scope of this study. A rough
interpretation could be the following: It can be hypothesised that beef is the meat of rural,
traditional and large families, whereas pork and poultry is consumed by younger urban and
those employed in the secondary and tertiary sector. If we assume that during transition,
families become smaller and people become urbanised then these hypotheses result in a
change in meat consumption.
Of high interest are the often competing issues of growing environmental and health
consciousness. Environmental consciousness favours beef consumption but not veal or the
"rising star" poultry. This could be due to the fact that beef production is perceived to be
associated with pasture fed animals and therefore environmental safety. Veal and poultry
production in contrast are associated with mass production, and maybe even cruelty to
animals. But environment and human health are not linked, as the results show: Healthy
products are poultry and – to a lesser extent – mutton, veal, and high quality pork and beef
cuts. This implies that for health reasons, low fat content and a certain awareness of the BSE
risk might be important. The significantly different ratings of the issues further imply that
themes at the interface of the issues, like animal welfare, nitrogen emissions and others do not
really matter.
Meat of higher quality seems to be favourable for all the products. The rise in the number of
different varieties will affect the same products as those with the high income effects. The
same holds for the increasing share of off-home food consumption and the growing relevance
of convenience, as they are all related to increasing income and the consequent effects. The
integration into a single EU-market has a similar impact as income effects implying that
positive income effects are expected from the single market entry which will foster
consumption. Trendy products are, as expected, poultry and high quality cuts of beef and pig
meat, as well as mutton and goat.
Summarising the analysis, it mainly shows the following points:
Meat consumption will by and large follow in CEEC-10 the same trends that can be seen in
the EU. Driving factors are income and the related effects of out of home consumption and
growing convenience, prices (especially for poultry), health consciousness and to a lesser
extent environmental consciousness. Ovine meat is seen as having positive perspectives,
contrary to some forecasts. This type of meat is seen as trendy, positively income elastic and
relatively healthy, however, not to the degree of poultry or pig meat.
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 24
Table 15: Expert ratings for the determinants of meat consumption in CEEC-10*
Reason Beef Veal Pig meat Mutton Poultry meat Meat total
and goat
meat
high low Meat high Low meat products breast other meat products meat meat Offal (e.g.
quality quality products quality quality containing meat poultry meat containing products liver,
cuts cuts containing cuts cuts primarily pig primarily (e.g. kidneys)
primarily meat poultry meat sausages,
beef ham)
Increase in real income 0.89 -0.11 0.44 1.11 1.22 -0.33 0.63 0.63 1.25 1.00 0.75 1.25 1.00 -0.25
Change of retail price 0.78 -0.22 0.33 0.67 0.33 -0.33 0.11 0.33 -0.33 -0.67 -0.56 0.67 0.22 0.22
relative to all other food
items.
Competing food items -0.44 -0.33 -0.22 -0.11 -0.22 -0.11 -0.11 0.11 0.33 0.33 0.33 -0.11 0.00 -0.11
Advertisement for -0.11 -0.11 -0.11 0.00 0.00 -0.22 0.11 0.11 0.00 -0.11 0.00 -0.11 0.00 -0.11
competing products
Change in demographic -0.22 -0.44 -0.33 -0.11 0.00 0.11 0.22 0.00 0.00 0.22 0.22 -0.22 0.00 0.11
structure
Growing environmental 0.22 0.11 0.22 -0.11 0.00 -0.22 -0.11 0.33 -0.11 -0.33 -0.25 -0.13 0.00 0.00
consciousness
Growing relevance of 0.22 -0.22 0.00 0.11 0.22 -0.22 0.11 0.00 0.56 0.44 0.33 0.11 0.22 -0.11
convenience
Increase in health 0.22 -0.33 -0.33 0.44 0.22 -0.67 -0.33 0.44 0.89 0.44 0.44 0.22 0.00 -0.44
consciousness
Increasing level of variety 0.44 -0.11 0.56 0.44 0.56 -0.22 0.67 0.33 0.44 0.56 0.56 0.56 1.00 0.00
Increasing share of off-home 0.78 -0.22 0.33 0.33 0.89 0.00 0.67 0.44 1.00 0.78 0.44 0.89 0.67 0.22
food consumption
Trendy product 0.00 -0.44 0.00 0.33 0.33 -0.22 0.33 0.44 0.33 0.44 0.44 0.33 0.22 -0.33
Varieties with higher 0.78 0.22 0.78 0.67 0.78 0.11 0.89 0.44 0.78 0.67 1.00 0.89 0.78 0.11
quality.
Integration into the Single 0.56 -0.22 0.56 0.67 0.56 -0.22 0.56 0.67 0.78 0.56 0.56 0.89 0.67 -0.11
Market
Remark: * Expectation of demand changes: -2: strongly negative, -1 negative, 0: no change, 1: positive, 2: strongly positive
Source: Own calculations based on the experts' ratings.
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 25
4.3 Detailed consumption prospects for dairy products as stated by the experts
Table 16: Expert ratings for the development of dairy consumption in CEEC-10*
Country Liquid Milk Other drinks Yoghurt Icecream Other Cream Cheese Butter Total dairy
containing desserts products
milk
ingredients
Estonia 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 -1 1
Latvia 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1
Lithuania 0 1 2 0 1 -1 1 -1 1
Poland 0 1 2 1 2 -1 2 -1 1
Czech Republic 0 1 2 1 1 1 2 0 1
Slovak Republic -1 1 2 1 1 0 2 -1 1
Hungary 1 1 1 2 2 0 1 1 1
Slovenia 1 1 1 1 0 1 2 0 1
Romania 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1
Bulgaria 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 -1 0
Unweighted average 0.5 0.9 1.3 1 1.1 0.2 1.4 -0.3 0.9
Remark: * Expectation of demand changes: -2: strongly negative, -1 negative, 0: no change, 1: positive, 2: strongly positive
Source: Own calculations based on the experts' ratings.
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 27
Table 17: Expert ratings for the determinants of dairy consumption in CEEC-10*
Reason Liquid Other drinks containing Yoghurt Ice cream Other Cream Cheese Butter Total dairy
Milk milk ingredients desserts products
Increase in real income 0.56 1.00 1.11 0.89 1.11 0.56 1.56 0.56 1.33
Change of retail price 0.33 0.22 0.56 0.11 0.22 -0.11 0.44 0.11 0.33
relative to all other food
items.
Competing food items 0.11 -0.33 0.00 0.00 -0.11 0.11 0.00 -0.44 0.11
Change in demographic 0.22 0.11 0.44 0.11 0.00 0.11 0.56 -0.33 0.33
structure
Growing environmental 0.22 0.22 0.33 0.11 0.00 0.22 0.44 0.11 0.33
consciousness
Growing relevance of 0.44 0.67 1.00 0.56 0.78 0.67 0.89 0.11 0.78
convenience
Increase in health 0.56 0.44 1.33 0.11 0.22 -0.44 1.00 -0.67 0.89
consciousness
Increasing level of variety 0.33 1.22 1.33 1.00 1.22 0.44 1.44 0.22 1.11
Increasing share of out- 0.00 0.89 0.67 0.78 1.11 0.22 0.89 -0.22 0.78
of-home food
consumption
Trendy product 0.22 0.67 0.89 0.56 0.67 -0.11 0.89 -0.56 0.56
Integration into the Single 0.11 1.11 0.89 0.67 1.00 0.33 1.22 -0.11 1.00
Market
Varieties with higher 0.89 1.11 1.56 1.11 1.11 0.44 1.56 0.44 1.22
quality.
Remark: * Expectation of demand changes: -2: strongly negative, -1 negative, 0: no change, 1: positive, 2: strongly positive
Source: Own calculations based on the experts' ratings.
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 29
Off-home consumption will be a driving force especially for desserts, drinks and cheese, and it
will have a negative effect on butter.
The other ratings can also be considered as explanatory or derivative items. Butter and cream
are not trendy products, whereas cheese and yoghurt are. The trend towards product variety
with higher quality dairy products is higher than that of meat products, and especially high for
cheese and yoghurt (both 1.56). Integration into the Single Market will probably enhance the
trends mentioned above, mainly through influencing other factors like income.
The analysis shows that milk products, like meat also follow a positive trend. Parameters like
health consciousness and convenience have a strong impact, as they outperform positive
income elasticity for butter and cream. Income effects seem to be stronger than for meat and
peak ratings for dairy products, especially for income, are higher than for meat products. Dairy
products are partly seen as substitutes for meat products. Products with high fat content will
be substituted by fruit and vegetable products.
5 FEED USE
section of food consumption. It also covers two steps. The first step is to assess the impact of
changes in the expected total animal production on feed use. Assessment will be done for five
groups of products, two of them (cereals and protein feeds) further divided in three and four
subgroups respectively (Table 18). The impact on each product group is assessed separately
for the following production systems: milk, beef, pork, poultry and eggs.
Table 18: Product groups and subgroups assessed
Product group Subgroups
Cereals Cereals total
Maize
Barley
Wheat
Protein feeds Protein feed total
Soybean cake
Sunflowerseed cake
Rape seed cake
Legumes
Starchy roots
Grassland and pasture
Other roughage (clover, alfalfa, etc.)
The second step investigates the determinants of the developments of feed use from a
technical point of view. Without considering specific production systems, for each product or
product group, detailed determinants of costs, prices and technologies are investigated that
influence feed use. On a mere technological level, harvesting, storage and feeding
technologies are considered. On animal production level, breed developments and product
quality requirements (e.g. for low-fat meat) are investigated. Costs of feed production in terms
of input prices (wages) are on the list as well as costs of feed use in terms of price
developments of the different items. Finally, some "soft" factors like the farmers' knowledge
or the overall impact of the EU-accession are listed.
Table 19: Technical developments affecting feed use
Please, assess the impact of the following technical developments on feed use
in harvesting (e.g. combine for harvesting fodder beets)
in storage (e.g. hay bails using plastic for covering)
in feeding (e.g. automatic feeding during milking according to performance)
Do you see any changes in labour costs and wages affecting the use of feed?
Please, assess the impact of improvements in the quality of animal products on the use of the
feed item considered (e.g. low-fat pig meat)
Please, assess the impact of expected changes in production techniques and in breeds (e.g.
growing importance of meat cattle breeds)
Please, assess how the price of the feed item considered will change relative to all other feed
items.
Please, asses how improvements in farmers' knowledge will change the use of feed?
Do you foresee some special aspects of enlargement on feed use beyond those covered above?
The assessment scheme further follows the one that was applied for the food consumption
analysis. The experts were asked for ratings from -2, strongly negative across 0 to +2, strongly
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 31
positive. These ratings are then transformed in absolute figures as above. The criticisms and
shortcomings about aggregation and weighting mentioned in the food consumption section
apply in the same way as above, maybe even more as not for every item and every country
responses were available.
REFERENCES
EUROPEAN COMMISSION (1998): Agricultural situation and prospects in the Central European
Countries, various editions.
EUROPEAN COMMISSION (2001): Prospects for agricultural markets 2001-2008.
ESTONIAN STATISTICAL OFFICE (2000): Yearbook Agriculture.
HARTMANN, M. (2001): The dairy sector in the Central European Candidate (CEC) countries – the
status of restructuring and future challenges in: Agrarwirtschaft 50 (2001), No. 6, pp. 342 - 353.
HENZE, A. (1994): Marktforschung: Grundlage für Marketing und Marktpolitik, Stuttgart (Ulmer).
HOUTHAKKER (1950): Revealed preference and the utility function, Economica, XVII (66), May, 159-
74, reprinted in: LANCASTER, K. (1999, ed.): Consumer theory, II. series, pp. 108 – 123.
REISCH, E., ZEDDIES, J. (1992): Einführung in die landwirtschaftliche Betriebslehre. Band 2:
Spezieller Teil, 3. Auflage, Stuttgart (Ulmer).
SAMUELSON, P. (1948): Consumption theory in terms of revealed preference, Economica XV (60),
November, 243-53, reprinted in: LANCASTER, K. (1999, ed.): Consumer theory, II. series, pp. 97 –
107.
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 35
Table I.3: Total pig meat consumption in CEEC-10 during the nineties (in kg p.c.)
Country 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Estonia 27.5 19.5 23.2 23.5 25.3 21.2 22.9 29.4 26.4
Latvia 24.9 25.9 24 26.6 20.1 17.8 15.1 16.4 15.8
Lithuania 18.2 7.8 20.9 24.1 21.5 17.4 18.3 23.6 24
Poland 46.6 46.4 51.6 52 50.3 47 48.2 49.2 43 46.4 47.2 47.2
Czech Republic 58.4 46.4 49.5 49.7 44.5 46.8 45.5 42.1
Slovakia 46.8 46.7 46.3 47.2 48 46.1 44.3 41.2
Hungary 78 70.6 67.3 64.1 56.5 51.8 47.3 44 40.8 41.9 42.3 47.6
Slovenia 25 41.4 42.5 37.8 35.1 36.7 36.5 41.4 37.3
Romania 30.8 35 33.1 31.3 28.6 28.4 27.5 26 26.8 29.6 27.7 24.2
Bulgaria 39.2 41.3 39.3 35.2 29.6 28.6 30.8 28.8 27.1 33.1 34.2 31.7
European Union (15) 40.8 40.7 39.7 40.1 41.4 40.4 40.2 41.2 40.6 43.5 44.5 44.2
Source: FAO Agrostat 2002
Table I.4: Total poultry consumption in CEEC-10 during the nineties (in kg p.c.)
Country 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Estonia 6.5 3.7 6.3 7.1 11.7 16.3 20.4 13.2 11.7
Latvia 8.2 5 5.1 4.7 5.3 6.9 8.6 7.3 8
Lithuania 8.1 5.6 6.1 6.8 8 9.8 9 8.2 7
Poland 8.4 7.7 8.2 9.1 9.4 10.6 10.2 10.2 12.5 13.2 13.5 13.6
Czech Republic 11.8 11.4 14.6 14.6 18.1 20 20.5 21.8
Slovakia 11.4 11.9 13.4 12.2 14.5 16.1 15.5 16.7
Hungary 22.1 22.8 20.3 23.1 22.1 22.9 23.8 23.5 24.3 27.1 27.9 36.1
Slovenia 10 19.2 19.2 25.6 28.7 30.6 32.4 33 33.1
Romania 10.9 17.4 14.3 12.7 14.1 11.8 13.5 13.1 11.8 13.9 13 12.9
Bulgaria 17.3 18.7 10 8.4 10 9 9.9 11 12.3 14.8 13.7 14.7
European Union (15) 16.4 17.1 17.5 18.4 18.1 19.1 19.2 20.1 20 20.8 20.3 20.6
Source: FAO Agrostat 2002.
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 37
Table I.5: Total mutton and goat meat consumption in CEEC-10 during the nineties (in kg p.c.)
Country 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Estonia 1.1 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Latvia 1.5 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2
Lithuania 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.9 0.2
Poland 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0 0 0
Czech Republic 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4
Slovakia 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Hungary 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2
Slovenia 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.4
Romania 3.7 4.6 4 4.2 3.8 3.4 3.2 3.1 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.5
Bulgaria 7.3 6.8 8.3 6.2 6.2 5 5.1 6.1 5.7 6 6.5 6
European Union (15) 3.6 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.5
Source: FAO Agrostat 2002.
Table I.6: Total milk consumption in CEEC-10 during the nineties1 (in kg p.c.)
Country 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Estonia 351.8 299.3 288.1 266.3 202.9 188.9 197.5 231 239.8
Latvia 198.6 267.8 226 230.3 200.8 211.6 205.4 198 172.5
Lithuania 148.6 162.4 196.8 148.6 152.9 129 107.8 112.5 181.6
Czech Republic 217.2 195.3 200.5 195.4 184.6 190.1 203.5 190.1
Slovakia 166.3 139.3 136 121.4 126.1 142.3 128.8 203.6
Poland 248.9 234.1 227 213.9 206.6 200.5 194.2 188.9 186.5 197.4 193.6 123.2
Hungary 202.7 177.7 183.6 176.3 171.9 158.9 157 154.2 170.1 174.1 168.8 176.7
Slovenia 198.3 189.4 197.5 205.2 215.7 223 233.8 253.2 222.2
Romania 133.8 99.4 141.1 131.3 176.8 179.8 190.8 195.3 189.6 194 190.4 188.9
Bulgaria 202.5 203.9 173 176 165.5 154.4 156.3 155.9 160.4 170.2 163.5 163.8
European Union (15) 241.5 235.4 239 239.7 232.5 237.2 239.1 241.4 241.4 244.2 246.7 243.5
Remark: 1 Milk excluding butter.
Source: FAO Agrostat 2002.
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 38
Table I.7: Butter consumption in CEEC-10 during the nineties1 (in kg p.c.)
Country 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Estonia 5.2 5.5 5.1 5.2 4.9 4.1 5.6 5.8 6.5
Latvia 5.2 2.8 4.1 4.1 3.8 2.2 1.8 2.1 1.9
Lithuania 7.3 6.8 3.7 3.3 2 2.7 2.4 3.1 2.7
Poland 8.8 7.8 5.7 5.2 4.5 3.9 4 3.9 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.4
Czech Republic 4.9 4.8 4.5 4.2 3.8 4 4.2 4.1
Slovakia 3.3 3.4 3.2 2.8 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7
Hungary 2.4 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.2 1.1 0.9 1
Slovenia 1 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 1 1.9 0.9
Romania 1.2 1.9 1.2 1.3 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3
Bulgaria 3.1 3 1.5 1.2 1 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3
European Union (15) 5.3 4.8 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4
Remark: 1 Butter and ghee.
Source: FAO Agrostat 2002.
Table I.8: Cream consumption in CEEC-10 during the nineties (in kg p.c.)
Country 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Estonia 2.2 2.6 2.3 1.9 1.5 1.9 1.8 1.5 2.2
Latvia 13 6.6 6.6 6.9 7.2 7.4 8.7 7.9 7.1
Lithuania 5.8 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.6 4.9 5.3 4.8 2.1
Poland 8 4.8 4.4 4 3.8 3.5 3 3.4 3.6 3.4 3.5 3.8
Czech Republic 1.9 2 2 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.3
Slovakia 3 2.7 3 3.1 2.9 2.8 3.8 3.6
Hungary 8.4 9.1 7 5.3 5.4 4.9 4 4.8 5.3 4.2 4.4 8.7
Slovenia 4.6 5.1 6.5 7 8.1 7.5 8.1 8.5 10.7
Romania 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Bulgaria 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.1 0.1
European Union (15) 2.7 3 3 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.9 4 4.1 4
Source: FAO Agrostat 2002.
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 39
Table I.9: Cheese consumption in CEEC-10 during the nineties (in kg p.c.)
Country 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Estonia 10.2 9.5 11.4 8.9 7 8.3 7.5 12.8 13.1
Latvia 5.2 3.4 3.3 3 2.6 2.8 2.5 3.7 3.9
Lithuania 4.5 3.3 3.2 3 4.5 5.1 3.9 5.5 5
Czech Republic 10.3 9 9.2 11.3 11.6 12.9 12.9 13.5
Slovakia 5.7 5.6 5.9 5.8 7 8.9 9 9.4
Poland 11.2 9.4 7.7 7.8 8.4 8.9 9.1 10 11.1 11.3 11.6 11.1
Hungary 7.3 6.7 6.7 7 7.5 7.4 7.3 7.2 8.9 8.3 8.4 8.9
Slovenia 6.6 7.6 7.8 8.2 8.6 9.1 9.5 10.5 8.1
Romania 3.6 4 4.1 3.3 2.7 2.6 2.9 2.7 1.9 2.4 1.9 1.8
Bulgaria 20.3 19.1 15.5 12.7 11.3 8.8 8.9 8.5 7.4 7.5 5.4 4.5
European Union (15) 14.2 15 14.5 15 14.8 15 15.2 15.8 16 16.4 16.5 16.7
Source: FAO Agrostat 2002.
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 40
Liquid Other drinks Yo- Ice- Other Cream Cheese Butter Total
Milk containing milk ghurt cream desserts dairy
ingredients products
LATVIA
1. Please, assess how the change in consumer preferences will affect 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1
the demand for the good considered.
2. Please, indicate which influence the following factors contributing to changes in consumer preferences will have on the demand for the good considered.
2.1 increase in health consciousness -1
2.2 trendy product 1
2.3 increasing level of variety 1 1 1 1
2.4 change in demographic structure
2.5 growing relevance of convenience 1
2.6 growing importance of environmental consciousness
2.7 increasing share of out-of-home food consumption 1 1 1 1
3. Please, assess how the retail price of the good considered will 1 1 1
change relative to all other food items.
4. Please, assess how the expected increase in real income per capita 1 1 1 1 1 1
affects the consumption of the good considered.
5. Please, indicate whether for the good considered there is a trend 1 1 1 1 1 1
towards varieties with higher quality.
6. Is there expected to be any change in the consumption of competing marg
food items that will affect the demand of the product considered? If
-1
yes, please, name the food items and indicate the direction of
change for the product considered.
7. What influence can be expected from the integration into the Single 1 1 1 1 1
Market on the demand of the product considered?
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 42
Liquid Other drinks Yo- Ice- Other Cream Cheese Butter Total
Milk containing milk ghurt cream desserts dairy
ingredients products
LITHUANIA
1. Please, assess how the change in consumer preferences will affect 0 1 2 0 1 -1 1 -1 1
the demand for the good considered.
2. Please, indicate which influence the following factors contributing to changes in consumer preferences will have on the demand for the good considered.
2.1 increase in health consciousness 1 0 1 0 0 -1 0 -1 0
2.2 trendy product 0 0 1 0 1 -1 0 -1 0
2.3 increasing level of variety 0 1 1 0 1 -1 1 -1 1
2.4 change in demographic structure 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2.5 growing relevance of convenience 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1
2.6 growing importance of environmental consciousness 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2.7 increasing share of out-of-home food consumption -1 0 1 1 1 -1 1 -1 1
3. Please, assess how the retail price of the good considered will 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
change relative to all other food items.
4. Please, assess how the expected increase in real income per capita 0 1 1 1 1 0 2 0 1
affects the consumption of the good considered.
5. Please, indicate whether for the good considered there is a trend 0 1 2 1 2 0 2 0 1
towards varieties with higher quality.
6. Is there expected to be any change in the consumption of competing 0 juices Other Other 0 Low fat 0 Spreads
food items that will affect the demand of the product considered? If deserts deserts dairy margarin
yes, please, name the food items and indicate the direction of products es
change for the product considered.
7. What influence can be expected from the integration into the Single 0 1 1 0 1 -1 1 -1 1
Market on the demand of the product considered?
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 43
Liquid Other drinks Yo- Ice- Other Cream Cheese Butter Total
Milk containing milk ghurt cream desserts dairy
ingredients products
POLAND
1. Please, assess how the change in consumer preferences will affect 0 1 2 1 2 -1 2 -1 1
the demand for the good considered.
2. Please, indicate which influence the following factors contributing to changes in consumer preferences will have on the demand for the good considered.
2.1 increase in health consciousness 0 1 2 0 2 -12 2 -12 1
2.2 trendy product 0 0 2 1 1 -1 2 -12 0
2.3 increasing level of variety 1 1 2 2 2 1 2 1 2
2.4 change in demographic structure 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0/1
2.5 growing relevance of convenience 0 1 2 0 1 0 1 0 0/1
2.6 growing importance of environmental consciousness 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2.7 increasing share of out-of-home food consumption 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0
3. Please, assess how the retail price of the good considered will 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
change relative to all other food items.
4. Please, assess how the expected increase in real income per capita 0 2 2 1 1 0 2 0 1/2
affects the consumption of the good considered.
5. Please, indicate whether for the good considered there is a trend 1 e.g. 1 2 1 1 0 1 1 1/2
towards varieties with higher quality. toward
UHT
technolog
y
6. Is there expected to be any change in the consumption of competing Vegetabl Meat
food items that will affect the demand of the product considered? If e oils,
1
yes, please, name the food items and indicate the direction of margarin
change for the product considered. es
7. What influence can be expected from the integration into the Single 0 1 2 1 2 0 1 0 1
Market on the demand of the product considered?
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 44
Liquid Other drinks Yo- Ice- Other Cream Cheese Butter Total
Milk containing milk ghurt cream desserts dairy
ingredients products
CZECH REPUBLIC
1. Please, assess how the change in consumer preferences will affect 0 1 2 1 1 1 2 0 1
the demand for the good considered.
2. Please, indicate which influence the following factors contributing to changes in consumer preferences will have on the demand for the good considered.
2.1 increase in health consciousness 0 1 2 0 0 0 2 0 1
2.2 trendy product 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0
2.3 increasing level of variety 0 2 2 1 1 1 1 0 1
2.4 change in demographic structure 0 2 2 1 1 0 2 0 1
2.5 growing relevance of convenience 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2.6 growing importance of environmental consciousness 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2.7 increasing share of out-of-home food consumption 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1
3. Please, assess how the retail price of the good considered will 0 1 1 0 0 0 -1 -1 0
change relative to all other food items.
4. Please, assess how the expected increase in real income per capita 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
affects the consumption of the good considered.
5. Please, indicate whether for the good considered there is a trend 1 1 2 0 0 0 2 0 1
towards varieties with higher quality.
6. Is there expected to be any change in the consumption of competing 0 -1 0 0 -1 0 -1 -1 0
food items that will affect the demand of the product considered? If
juices, confectio meat vegetable
yes, please, name the food items and indicate the direction of
soft ner´s products oils
change for the product considered.
drinks products
7. What influence can be expected from the integration into the Single 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1
Market on the demand of the product considered?
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 45
Liquid Other drinks Yo- Ice- Other Cream Cheese Butter Total
Milk containing milk ghurt cream desserts dairy
ingredients products
SLOVAK REPUBLIC
1. Please, assess how the change in consumer preferences will affect -1 1 2 1 1 0 2 -1 1
the demand for the good considered.
2. Please, indicate which influence the following factors contributing to changes in consumer preferences will have on the demand for the good considered.
2.1 increase in health consciousness 0 0 2 0 0 -1 1 -1 1
2.2 trendy product -1 1 1 1 0 -1 1 -1 1
2.3 increasing level of variety -1 1 1 1 1 0 2 0 1
2.4 change in demographic structure 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0
2.5 growing relevance of convenience 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1
2.6 growing importance of environmental consciousness 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1
2.7 increasing share of out-of-home food consumption -1 1 0 1 1 1 1 -1 1
3. Please, assess how the retail price of the good considered will 0 1 1 0 1 -1 1 -1 1
change relative to all other food items.
4. Please, assess how the expected increase in real income per capita 0 1 1 1 1 0 2 1 2
affects the consumption of the good considered.
5. Please, indicate whether for the good considered there is a trend 1 1 2 1 1 0 2 0 1
towards varieties with higher quality.
6. Is there expected to be any change in the consumption of competing Soft Soft 0 0 Cakes 0 meat other fats Bever-
food items that will affect the demand of the product considered? If drinks, drinks, and ages
-1 -1
yes, please, name the food items and indicate the direction of -1 pastry,
-1 -1
change for the product considered. -1
7. What influence can be expected from the integration into the Single -1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1
Market on the demand of the product considered?
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 46
Liquid Other drinks Yo- Ice- Other Cream Cheese Butter Total
Milk containing milk ghurt cream desserts dairy
ingredients products
HUNGARY
1. Please, assess how the change in consumer preferences will affect 1 1 1 2 2 0 1 1 1
the demand for the good considered.
2. Please, indicate which influence the following factors contributing to changes in consumer preferences will have on the demand for the good considered.
2.1 increase in health consciousness 1 0 1 0 -1 -1 2 0 2
2.2 trendy product 0 1 0 1 1 -1 0 0 0
2.3 increasing level of variety 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1
2.4 change in demographic structure -1 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 0 -1 0
2.5 growing relevance of convenience 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 -1 0
2.6 growing importance of environmental consciousness 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2.7 increasing share of out-of-home food consumption -1 0 0 1 1 0 0 -1 0
3. Please, assess how the retail price of the good considered will 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1
change relative to all other food items.
4. Please, assess how the expected increase in real income per capita 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1
affects the consumption of the good considered.
5. Please, indicate whether for the good considered there is a trend 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1
towards varieties with higher quality.
6. Is there expected to be any change in the consumption of competing 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
food items that will affect the demand of the product considered? If
yes, please, name the food items and indicate the direction of
change for the product considered.
7. What influence can be expected from the integration into the Single -1 1 1 0 0 0 2 0 2
Market on the demand of the product considered?
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 47
Liquid Other drinks Yo- Ice- Other Cream Cheese Butter Total
Milk containing milk ghurt cream desserts dairy
ingredients products
SLOVENIA
1. Please, assess how the change in consumer preferences will affect 1 1 1 1 0 1 2 0 1
the demand for the good considered.
2. Please, indicate which influence the following factors contributing to changes in consumer preferences will have on the demand for the good considered.
2.1 increase in health consciousness 1 1 1 1 0 1 2 -1 1
2.2 trendy product 1 1 1 1 0 1 2 -1 1
2.3 increasing level of variety 1 1 1 1 0 1 2 0 1
2.4 change in demographic structure 1 1 1 1 0 1 2 0 1
2.5 growing relevance of convenience 1 1 1 1 0 1 2 0 1
2.6 growing importance of environmental consciousness 1 1 1 1 0 1 2 0 1
2.7 increasing share of out-of-home food consumption 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1
3. Please, assess how the retail price of the good considered will -1 -1 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 0
change relative to all other food items.
4. Please, assess how the expected increase in real income per capita 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 01
affects the consumption of the good considered.
5. Please, indicate whether for the good considered there is a trend 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
towards varieties with higher quality.
6. Is there expected to be any change in the consumption of competing 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
food items that will affect the demand of the product considered? If
yes, please, name the food items and indicate the direction of
change for the product considered.
7. What influence can be expected from the integration into the Single 01 01 1 0 0 0 01 0 -1 01
Market on the demand of the product considered?
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 48
Liquid Other drinks Yo- Ice- Other Cream Cheese Butter Total
Milk containing milk ghurt cream desserts dairy
ingredients products
ROMANIA
1. Please, assess how the change in consumer preferences will affect 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1
the demand for the good considered.
2. Please, indicate which influence the following factors contributing to changes in consumer preferences will have on the demand for the good considered.
2.1 Increase in health consciousness 1 0 1 -1 0 0 0 1 1
2.2 trendy product 2 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1
2.3 Increasing level of variety 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 1
2.4 change in demographic structure 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
2.5 Growing relevance of convenience 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0
2.6 Growing importance of environmental consciousness 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1
2.7 Increasing share of out-of-home food consumption 1 2 1 0 2 0 1 0 1
3. Please, assess how the retail price of the good considered would 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
change relative to all other food items.
4. Please, assess how the expected increase in real income per capita 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 1
affects the consumption of the good considered.
5. Please, indicate whether for the good considered there is a trend 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 1
towards varieties with higher quality.
6. Is there expected to be any change in the consumption of competing 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1
food items that will affect the demand of the product considered? If
yes, please, name the food items and indicate the direction of
change for the product considered.
7. What influence can be expected from the integration into the Single 1 2 1 2 2 2 2 1 1
Market on the demand of the product considered?
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 49
Liquid Other drinks Yo- Ice- Other Cream Cheese Butter Total
Milk containing milk ghurt cream desserts dairy
ingredients products
BULGARIA
1. Please, assess how the change in consumer preferences will affect 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 -1 0
the demand for the good considered.
2. Please, indicate which influence the following factors contributing to changes in consumer preferences will have on the demand for the good considered.
2.1 increase in health consciousness 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 -1 0
2.2 trendy product 0 1 0 0 2 1 1 0 1
2.3 increasing level of variety 1 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 1
2.4 change in demographic structure 0 -1 0 -12 -1 0 0 -12 0
2.5 growing relevance of convenience 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2
2.6 growing importance of environmental consciousness 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2.7 increasing share of out-of-home food consumption -1 1 0 1 2 1 2 0 1
3. Please, assess how the retail price of the good considered will 0 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 1 1 0
change relative to all other food items.
4. Please, assess how the expected increase in real income per capita 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 0 2
affects the consumption of the good considered.
5. Please, indicate whether for the good considered there is a trend 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 1 2
towards varieties with higher quality.
6. Is there expected to be any change in the consumption of Yes,
competing food items that will affect the demand of the product Decreased consumption of butter and increased consumption of margarine.
considered? If yes, please, name the food items and indicate the Decreased consumption of other drinks containing milk ingredients and increased consumption
direction of change for the product considered. of fruit juices
7. What influence can be expected from the integration into the Single 0 1 -1 1 1 1 1 -1 0
Market on the demand of the product considered?
Source: Experts' ratings.
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 50
ESTONIA
1. Please, assess how the expected total 1 -1 0 1 1 -12 -1 0 1 1 -12 1 0 0
preference adjustments will change the
demand for the good considered.
2. Please, indicate which influence the following factors will have on the expected preference change.
2.1 increase in health consciousness 1 -1 0 1 1 -1 0 0 1 0 -1 1 0 0
2.2 trendy product 10 -1 1 1 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
2.3 increasing level of variety 0 0 1 0 0 -1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0
2.4 change in demographic structure 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2.5 growing relevance of convenience 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2.6 growing importance of environmental 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
consciousness
2.7 increasing share of off-1home food 1 -1 0 1 1 -1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 -1
consumption
2.8 increasing relevance of advertisement for 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
competing products (e.g. liquid milk vs.
soft drinks)
3. Please, assess how the retail price of the -1 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 -1 0 0 -1 0 0
good considered will change relative to all
other food items.
4. Please, assess how the expected increase in 1 -1 0 1 1 -1 0 0 1 0 -1 1 0 0
real income per capita affects the
consumption of the good considered.
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 51
2. Please, indicate which influence the following factors will have on the expected preference change.
2.1 increase in health consciousness 0 0 0 1 -1 -1 -1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0
2.2 trendy product 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0
2.3 increasing level of variety 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0
2.4 change in demographic structure 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2.5 growing relevance of convenience 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2.6 growing importance of environmental 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
consciousness
2.7 increasing share of off-1home food 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0
consumption
2.8 increasing relevance of advertisement for 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
competing products (e.g. liquid milk vs.
soft drinks)
3. Please, assess how the retail price of the 1 0 0 1 -1 0 0 1 1 -1 0 1 1 1
good considered will change relative to all
other food items.
4. Please, assess how the expected increase in 1 -1 1 1 1 -1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 -1
real income per capita affects the
consumption of the good considered.
5. Please, indicate whether for the good 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0
considered there is a trend towards varieties
with higher quality.
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 54
1
Assumed that BSE will be under control and consumer confidence will recover
2
Depends how the BSE control and consumer confidence EU-15 wide will develop
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 55
CZECH REPUBLIC
1. Please, assess how the expected total 0 -1 -1 0 1 0 1 0 2 2 2 1 1 1
preference adjustments will change the
demand for the good considered.
2. Please, indicate which influence the following factors will have on the expected preference change.
2.1 increase in health consciousness 0 -1 -1 0 1 -1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0
2.2 trendy product 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0
2.3 increasing level of variety 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0
2.4 change in demographic structure 0 -1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1
2.5 growing relevance of convenience 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2.6 growing importance of environmental 1 1 1 0 0 -1 0 0 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0
consciousness
2.7 increasing share of off-1home food 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 2 1 1 1 1 1
consumption
2.8 increasing relevance of advertisement for
competing products (e.g. liquid milk vs.
soft drinks)
3. Please, assess how the retail price of the 1 0 1 0 1 -1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0
good considered will change relative to all
other food items.
4. Please, assess how the expected increase in 1 0 01 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0
real income per capita affects the
consumption of the good considered.
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 57
ROMANIA
1. Please, assess how the expected total 1 0 1 1 2 -1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1
preference adjustments will change the
demand for the good considered.
2. Please, indicate which influence the following factors will have on the expected preference change.
2.1 increase in health consciousness 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0
2.2 trendy product 1 0 1 1 2 0 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 1
2.3 increasing level of variety 1 0 1 1 2 0 2 0 1 1 1 2 2 1
2.4 change in demographic structure 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0
2.5 growing relevance of convenience 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 0 2 1 1 1 2 1
2.6 growing importance of environmental 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
consciousness
2.7 increasing share of off-1home food 1 -1 1 1 2 -1 2 1 2 2 0 2 2 2
consumption
2.8 increasing relevance of advertisement for 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
competing products (e.g. liquid milk vs.
soft drinks)
3. Please, assess how the retail price of the 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 -1 -1 -1 1 1 1
good considered would change relative to all
other food items.
4. Please, assess how the expected increase in 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 0 2 2 2 2 2 2
real income per capita affects the
consumption of the good considered.
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 63
Table II.5: Impact of changes in animal production on feed consumption per country
Country Cereals Maize Barley Wheat Protein Soybean Sunflower Rapeseed Legumes Starchy Grassland Other
total feed total cake -seed cake cake roots and roughage
pasture (clover.
lucerne
etc.)
in beef production
Est 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Lat n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Lit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0
Pl 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 -1.0 2.0 1.0
Cz 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0
Sk 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0
Hu 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0
Slo 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Ro 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 2.0
Bg 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 -1.0 1.0
Average 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.1 1.0 1.0
in eggs production
Est 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Lat n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Lit n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Pl 1.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 n.a. n.a. n.a.
Cz 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Sk 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Hu 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Slo 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 n.a. 0.0 0.0
Ro 1.0 1.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Bg 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Average 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.1 0.6 0.6
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 69
Country Cereals Maize Barley Wheat Protein Soybean Sunflower Rapeseed Legumes Starchy Grassland Other
total feed total cake -seed cake cake roots and roughage
pasture (clover.
lucerne
etc.)
in milk production
Est 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0
Lat n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Lit -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0
Pl 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 -1.0 2.0 1.0
Cz 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 1.0
Sk 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0
Hu 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0
Slo 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Ro 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 2.0
Bg -1.0 -1.0 1.0 -1.0 0.0 -1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 -1.0 1.0
Average 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.1 1.1 1.1
in pork production
Est 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Lat n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Lit n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Pl 1.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 -2.0 n.a. n.a.
Cz 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Sk 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0
Hu 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Slo 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 n.a. 0.0 1.0
Ro 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0
Bg 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 n.a n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Average 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.5 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.2
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 70
Country Cereals Maize Barley Wheat Protein Soybean Sunflower Rapeseed Legumes Starchy Grassland Other
total feed total cake -seed cake cake roots and roughage
pasture (clover.
lucerne
etc.)
in poultry production
Est 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Lat n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Lit n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Pl 1.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 n.a. n.a. n.a.
Cz 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0
Sk 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
Hu 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Slo 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 n.a. 0.0 0.0
Ro 1.0 1.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Bg 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 n.a. 1.0 1.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Average 1.0 1.0 0.3 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Source: Country experts.
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 71
Country Cereals Maize Barley Wheat Protein Soybean Sunflowersee Rapeseed Legumes Starchy Grassland Other
total feed total cake d cake cake roots and roughage
pasture (clover,
lucerne
etc.)
Enlargement on feed use beyond those covered above
Est 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Lat n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Lit n.a. -1.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. -1.0 n.a. 1.0 n.a. n.a. 1.0 n.a.
Pl n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Cz 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Sk 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0
Hu n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Slo n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Ro 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 1.0
Bg n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Average 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.0 0.8 0.5
How will the price change?
Est 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0
Lat n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Lit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Pl -1.0 -1.0 0.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Cz 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0
Sk 0.0 1.0 -1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 -1.0 -1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0
Hu 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Slo n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Ro 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
Bg n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Average -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.6
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 73
Country Cereals Maize Barley Wheat Protein Soybean Sunflowersee Rapeseed Legumes Starchy Grassland Other
total feed total cake d cake cake roots and roughage
pasture (clover,
lucerne
etc.)
Improvements in farmers' knowledge
Est 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Lat n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Lit -1.0 n.a. n.a. 1.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.0 1.0 0.0
Pl 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0
Cz 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Sk 1.0 1.0 -1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0
Hu 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 1.0
Slo n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Ro 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
Bg n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Average 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.3 0.9 0.7
Improvements in the quality of animal products
Est 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0
Lat n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Lit -1.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. 1.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 1.0 1.0 1.0
Pl 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 -2.0 1.0 1.0
Cz 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Sk 1.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 2.0
Hu 0.0 -1.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 -2.0 1.0 1.0
Slo n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Ro 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0
Bg n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Average 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.2 0.8 0.8 1.0 -0.3 1.1 1.1
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 74
Country Cereals Maize Barley Wheat Protein Soybean Sunflowersee Rapeseed Legumes Starchy Grassland Other
total feed total cake d cake cake roots and roughage
pasture (clover,
lucerne
etc.)
Improvements in feeding
Est 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0
Lat n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Lit 1.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. 1.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. -1.0 -1.0 -1.0
Pl 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 n.a. n.a. n.a.
Cz 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0
Sk -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0
Hu 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Slo n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Ro 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Bg n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Average 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.0 0.3 0.2
Improvements in harvesting
Est 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0
Lat n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Lit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Pl n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Cz 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Sk 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Hu 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Slo n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Ro 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0
Bg n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Average 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.9
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 75
Country Cereals Maize Barley Wheat Protein Soybean Sunflowersee Rapeseed Legumes Starchy Grassland Other
total feed total cake d cake cake roots and roughage
pasture (clover,
lucerne
etc.)
Improvements in storage
Est 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0
Lat n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Lit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0
Pl n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. -1.0 1.0 1.0
Cz 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Sk 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0
Hu 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
Slo n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Ro 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Bg n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Average 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.1 0.9 1.0
Source: Country experts.