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ASSESSMENT REPORT

Network of Independent Agricultural Experts


in the CEE Candidate Countries

CONSUMPTION TRENDS FOR DAIRY


AND LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS,
AND THE USE OF FEEDS IN PRODUCTION,
IN THE CEE ACCESSION AND CANDIDATE
COUNTRIES

ADVISORY BODY
MEMBERS: STEFFEN ABELE, KLAUS FROHBERG,
MONIKA HARTMANN, ALAN MATTHEWS AND
PETER WEINGARTEN

JANUARY 2004

Theodor-Lieser-Straße 2, D-06120 Halle (Saale), Germany


Phone: +49-345-2928 110
Fax: +49-345-2928 199
E-mail: iamo@iamo.de
Internet: http://www.iamo.de
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 2

This Assessment Report is based on information provided by the country experts of the
Network of Independent Agricultural Experts in the CEE Candidate Countries.
The country experts contributing to this Assessment Report are:
Estonia: Mati Sepp
Latvia: Matthew Gorton
Lithuania: Natalija Kazlauskiene
William H. Meyers
Poland: Waldemar Guba
Czech Republic: Françoise Simon
Tomas Ratinger
Slovak Republic: Marian Bozik
Jerzy Michalek
Hungary: Martin Banse
Tibor Ferenczi
Slovenia: Stefan Bojnec
Jernej Turk
Romenia: Graham E. Dalton
Crina Sinziana Turtoi
Maria Magdolna Vincze
Bulgaria: Plamen Dimitrov Mishev
Nedka Momtscheva Ivanova
Sophia Davidova

Prepared under contract no. 029506 of the European Commission, Agricultural Directorate General.
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 3

CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.............................................................................................5
1 Introduction: Aim and structure of the study ..........................................................9
2 Food Consumption ......................................................................................................9
2.1 Method of analysis............................................................................................................9
2.2 General determinants of consumption ............................................................................10
2.3 Methodological approach of the study............................................................................11

3 Assessment I: Meat and dairy consumption in the nineties ..................................12


3.1 Meat consumption...........................................................................................................12
3.1.1 Meat total ................................................................................................................12
3.1.2 Beef .........................................................................................................................13
3.1.3 Pig meat...................................................................................................................14
3.1.4 Poultry .....................................................................................................................15
3.1.5 Mutton and goat ......................................................................................................15
3.1.6 Concluding remarks on the meat consumption in CEEC-10 during the nineties....16
3.2 Dairy consumption..........................................................................................................16
3.2.1 Total milk consumption ..........................................................................................16
3.2.2 Consumption of butter.............................................................................................17
3.2.3 Consumption of cream ............................................................................................18
3.2.4 Consumption of cheese ...........................................................................................18
3.2.5 Concluding remarks on milk consumption in CEEC-10 during the nineties ..........18

4 Assessment II: Prospects for meat and dairy products..........................................19


4.1 Overall meat and dairy consumption in CEEC as prospected until 2008.......................19
4.2 Detailed consumption prospects for meat as reported by the experts ............................19
4.2.1 Overall demand developments ................................................................................19
4.2.2 Determinants and effects of changes in meat consumption patterns ......................22
4.3 Detailed consumption prospects for dairy products as stated by the experts .................25
4.3.1 Overall demand developments ................................................................................25
4.2.3 Determinants and effects of changes in dairy consumption patterns......................27

5 Feed use ......................................................................................................................29


5.1 Introduction: Aim and structure of the study..................................................................29
5.2 Theoretical and methodological aspects.........................................................................29
5.3 Prospects for feed use .....................................................................................................31
5.3.1 Developments in animal production .......................................................................31
5.3.2 Impact on feed production and use .........................................................................32

References ......................................................................................................................34
Annex I:............................................................. Consumption and food demand issues 35
Annex II: .....................................................................Animal production and feed-use 65
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 4

BSE Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (mad cow disease)


CEE Central and Eastern Europe
CEEC-10 Ten Central and Eastern European Countries that are associated to the EU
EU European Union
FAO Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations
FAPRI Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute
Kg Kilograms
n.a. Data not available
p.c. per capita
ZMP Zentrale Markt- und Preisberichtstelle (Central Statistical Office for
Agricultural and Food Products in Germany)
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 5

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This Assessment Report aims to find out what the determining demand factors are within the
extended EU food markets by discussing food demand and feed use, elaborating on meat and
dairy demand in the past and their prospects for the future. Most of the assessment is based on
judgement of the country experts of the Network of Independent Experts in the CEE
Candidate Countries (CEEC).

Although food consumption usually follows a rather steady pattern, the animal diseases that
occurred during recent years have made it much more dynamic in case of certain products.
BSE, foot and mouth disease and swine fever have had a severe impact on food markets in the
EU causing demand for meat to decrease rapidly. Simultaneously, attitudes towards quality
and origin of food seem to have changed, the perception of increasing the chances of better
health by eating so called "functional food" is an important issue of marketing, while ethical
aspects of animal husbandry have also entered people's consciousness. These developments
are of high importance for the analysis.

The Report provides an assessment of meat and dairy consumption in the nineties, which
concludes that meat consumption generally faced a sharp decline during the period in almost
all accession countries, amounting to 10-20 % of the consumption level of the late eighties.
This however, took place with great differences among the countries. The only country with a
positive development of meat consumption is Slovenia, where meat consumption sharply
increased by 80 percent. The main cause of this increase however is probably due to changes
in the Slovenian statistical survey.
The decrease in demand for meat varied according to the different types of meat. Beef and
mutton consumption declined sharply while that of pork and poultry developed positively. An
income effect and a substitution effect could be observed with the former being stronger than
the latter.
This development was only partly caused by the direct income effects of transition. Income
declined until the early mid-nineties, and recovered from 1995 in most of the countries.
Another part of the decrease of consumption was due to the rising prices of meat. A reduction
of formerly planned and subsidised production yielded in a shortage of supply, rising prices
and finally reduced consumption. Imported meat must have been too expensive to bring
consumption up to the former level. It is also noteworthy that consumption of white meat
grew being relatively low cost and having short production cycles. An additional cause might
be the loss of consumers' confidence especially in beef products after the BSE-crises of the
late nineties.
Milk consumption during the nineties also fell, but unlike total meat consumption it did not -
except for a few countries - recover in the late nineties. The only positive trends can be seen in
Slovenia, Lithuania and Romania.
While milk and milk products show a decline in consumption, the picture here is less diverse
than for meat consumption, which might have statistical reasons, as there is a broader variety
among meat than dairy products. However, it can also be observed that in the dairy sector,
there is increasing demand for high value products, like cheese. Milk consumption in the form
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 6

of fresh milk seems to be highest in the relatively wealthy countries, and in poorest countries,
where there is great reliance on subsistence represented by small farms with only a few cows
that produce and consume on the spot.

Following the consumption patterns of the nineties, the Report delivers an assessment of the
prospects for meat and dairy products, according to which the forecasts of meat
consumption reflect a certain continuation of past developments. Total per capita consumption
is expected to rise only slightly until the end of this decade, but substitution effects are more
dynamic: Beef and veal consumption is expected to decrease slightly, whereas pig meat
consumption will be more stable with a slight increase. Continued growth in poultry meat
consumption is expected. Ovine meat consumption will also decline at a high rate in relative
terms, but at a low rate in absolute terms, as it is already at a low level.
Contrary to meat consumption, forecasts of dairy consumption show a likely, but only slight
decline. Butter and fresh milk consumption will be reduced, but the strongest relative effects
are foreseen for cheese.
According to the detailed consumption prospects for meat as reported by the experts, beef
consumption is expected to experience only a slightly positive trend. High quality beef cuts
are expected to be consumed more in Poland, Romania, the Slovak Republic, the Baltic states
and Slovenia. Consumption of low quality beef cuts is likely to develop negatively in the
Czech Republic, the Slovak Republic and Estonia, whereas in the rest of the region, there is
no change expected. For meat products containing beef, the picture is diverse. In Poland, the
Czech Republic and the Slovak Republic, trends are negative, while in the rest of the countries
trends are neutral or even positive.
Veal will have positive consumption trends in most countries, whereas in the Czech Republic,
the Slovak Republic and Poland, there will be no change.
Pig meat forecasts follow the expected statistical trends, that is high quality cuts are expected
to be demanded in increasing quantities throughout the CEEC-10, except for Poland where the
development will be neutral. Consumption of low quality cuts will decline in Estonia, Poland,
Bulgaria and Romania, whereas only Hungary is expected to experience a rising demand for
low quality cuts. The consumption of pig meat products is also expected to increase, except
for Estonia and Bulgaria.
Mutton and goat meat consumption is expected to rise in most of the countries, except for
Estonia, the Czech Republic and Bulgaria.
The poultry meat forecasts as well as those for poultry meat products are positive with the
exception of Estonia that expects strongly negative consumption developments in this market
segment.
Regarding total meat consumption, the trend is also mainly upwards for meat, as in only two
countries the consumption is anticipated to be stable in the future. The same holds for meat
products, whereas offal consumption is likely to increase only in Romania and the Czech
Republic.
Therefore it can be observed that meat consumption will by and large follow in CEEC-10 the
same trends that can be seen in the EU. The determinants and effects of changes in meat
consumption patterns are income and the related effects of out of home consumption and
growing convenience, prices (especially for poultry), health consciousness and to a lesser
extent environmental consciousness. Ovine meat is seen as having positive perspectives,
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 7

contrary to some forecasts. This type of meat is seen as trendy, positively income elastic and
relatively healthy, however, not to the degree of poultry or pig meat.

According to the detailed consumption prospects for dairy products as stated by the experts, a
positive trend is assumed in dairy consumption in almost all countries except Bulgaria, where
no change is expected in the next decade.
Prospects for the dairy sector seem to be more homogeneous across countries than in the meat
sector, at least as far as the main products are concerned. This can also derive from the fact
that quality differences are more pronounced among meat than dairy products included in the
questionnaire used for the assessment.
The worst expectations are reported for butter, which is the only product with a negative
prospect. Positive expectations for butter consumption only occur in Romania and Hungary.
Cheese is the product with the best expectations for the next decade throughout all the
countries (except for Estonia), closely followed by yoghurt, for which only Bulgaria is
expected to have no changes at all.
Desserts and milk drinks are also expected to develop positively in all the countries, whereas
fresh milk and cream are expected to have a rather moderate growth. Romania is the
exception, where the “fresh milk phenomenon” will continue in the future: A low income and
high income-elasticity for milk products that are of a relative low price are the driving factors
for this development.
Among the determinants and effects of changes in dairy consumption patterns, health
consciousness and convenience have a strong impact, as they outperform positive income
elasticity for butter and cream. Income effects seem to be stronger than for meat and peak
ratings for dairy products, especially for income, are higher than for meat products. Dairy
products are partly seen as substitutes for meat products. Fruit and vegetable products will
substitute products with high fat content.

The Report is concluded with an analysis of feed use. This study is justified because next to
consumption, production forms the opposite end of the production and marketing chain, and
recent developments have shown that these ends are much closer together than one might
expect. Recent occurrences have shown that feeding of animals is controversially discussed
among consumers, and the consequences of the BSE-crisis were that feeding was adjusted,
also because of the pressure from the demand side. An increased consumer demand for white
meat has a consequence that cereals and especially soft wheat will be used to a larger extent
than before, affecting the wheat markets in Europe and beyond.
Assessing feed use from a quantitative and qualitative point of view, the analysis tries to take
into consideration the relationships of different factors influencing feed demand, -production
and -use.
The prospects for feed use are assessed by observing the developments in animal production
and their impact on feed production and use.
The number of livestock heavily depends on the demand for meat and meat products, as well
as milk and milk products. As assessed earlier, the increase in meat demand will mainly affect
white meat, while the demand for red meat will decrease during the next decade. This results
in an increase of poultry stocks and a consequent higher demand for appropriate feed items.
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 8

Pig production is also to increase, so that the use of feed grains will most likely be on the rise.
Beef cattle production is likely to decrease, given the decreasing demand for beef and veal.
The demand for milk products will slightly decrease, but at the same time, there will be a
structural change in the dairy herds: While the number of cows will decrease by 13 percent
until the year 2008, the yield per cow is estimated to increase by 11 percent.
This implies that overall fodder demand will decrease but also the quality structure will
change, as roughage and pasture will be substituted or at least supplemented by protein and
starch containing feedstuffs.
Due to the technological progress that is expected for almost all CEEC, feed conversion will
be improved in all production systems, meaning that less feed will be needed to produce the
same amount of meat. Thus with the exception of cereals and fodder wheat, overall feed
production and consumption will be reduced.
These developments have the following consequences for feed use in the CEEC. The increase
in poultry production will result in higher feed use of cereals, especially wheat, which is
expected to increase by 23 percent from 2000 to 2008. The feed use of coarse grains will also
increase by the high rate of 22.7 percent. Oilseeds are also expected to experience a growth in
feed use, whereas feed potatoes will experience a slight decrease in the next decade.
Cereals will probably play their most important part in poultry and pork production. Protein
feed will be most affected by the developments both in pork and poultry production.
Especially legumes are expected to experience an increase in beef and milk production,
whereas starchy roots will, according to the survey results, not be affected by the changes in
animal production. Despite the expectation of an intensified milk production and a consequent
shift to cereals and protein, pasture and other roughage will still play a major role in beef and
dairy production.
The analysis shows that when looking at technologies that affect feed use, things are more
dynamic than when looking at the production systems themselves. Technological changes will
strongly affect feed use, but – besides a strong increase in protein feed – traditional feeding
systems like pasture or roughage will maintain their share in overall feeding, and even
experience a certain increase. This is also due to a certain awareness that feeding determines
various quality aspects of animal products required by the consumer, and pasture is certainly
seen as healthy both for the animals and for their consumers.
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 9

1 INTRODUCTION: AIM AND STRUCTURE OF THE STUDY


Twelve countries are likely to join the EU within the next five years. For ten of them
membership is foreseen to be granted in 2004. These are eight Central and Eastern European
countries, namely Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary
as well as Slovenia. The other two are Cyprus and Malta. In 2007, Bulgaria and Romania are
scheduled to join the EU. With this change in membership, EU markets for agricultural and
food products will be affected. The question is by how much.
It is therefore of substantial importance to many groups such as farmers, food processors,
traders, consumers and also politicians how these markets are going to develop after the
enlargement. Assessing market developments requires an analysis of both production and
demand. This study is only concerned with changes in domestic disappearance. Production
has been dealt with in other analyses.
The core consideration to be addressed in this paper is thus to find out what the determining
demand factors are within the extended EU food markets. For example will there be a shift to
high quality products, biologically safe and functional, as expected in the present EU, or will
there be a continuing demand for traditional agricultural products.
Among the various items making up total disappearance only food consumption and feed use
will be analysed. They account for the largest part of domestic disappearance. The other items
such as industrial use, seeds, wastes and stock changes are of minor importance for drawing a
picture of past and likely future changes in domestic disappearance in these countries.
Of particular interest are dairy and meat products. Dairy products are of high value and are
highly differentiated into a wide variety of products. This implies a differentiated set of
processing and quality requirements. Labour productivity and profitability are higher in the
dairy industry than in other branches of the food sector (HARTMANN 2001). Thus, markets are
expected to be highly dynamic in the future. Almost the same holds for meat, where
consumption is also driven by health aspects and ethical questions, and where changes in
markets seem to be even greater than on the dairy product markets.
Since Cyprus and Malta have a relatively small population they will not affect demand for
agricultural and food products considerably and are not considered in this study. Only the
other ten, i.e. the Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC-10) are included in this
report.
The study is structured as follows: Food demand and feed use will be discussed in sequence in
the following two chapters. Each of them is further divided in various sections. Regarding
food demand this includes some remarks concerning the theoretical and methodological
aspects of the analysis. Thereafter, meat and dairy demand in the past and prospects for the
future are elaborated on. Most of the assessment in the latter part is based on judgement of the
country experts of the Network of Independent Experts in the CEE Candidate Countries.

2 FOOD CONSUMPTION

2.1 Method of analysis


While food consumption usually follows a rather steady path during most recent years animal
diseases occurred making it much more dynamic for some products such as meats. Most
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 10

recently, BSE, foot and mouth disease and swine fever have had a severe impact on food
markets in the EU: Demand for meat in the wake of these disease outbreaks decreased rapidly,
so that market interventions had to be envisaged. Simultaneously, attitudes towards quality
and origin of food seem to have changed: Risks for human health, such as the impact of
residues from veterinary and feed stuff treatments are perceived more sensitively. At the same
time, the perception of increasing the chances of better health by eating so called "functional
food" is an important issue of marketing. Ethical aspects of animal husbandry have also
entered people's consciousness.
All this has had a significant impact on production, processing and marketing of agricultural
products. Biologically safe and ethically correct production will increase costs and thus has to
be passed on to those consumers who are willing to pay for such products. Investments for
quality improvement, but also for product innovation have to be made. Innovative products
might yield higher margins, but it is not yet clear how these benefits will be shared by primary
producers and the processing and trading industries.

2.2 General determinants of consumption


According to Samuelson, consumers' behaviour can be analysed by assessing the costs of
different combinations of goods. By choosing between different bundles of goods at different
costs (i.e. commodity prices multiplied with the quantities consumed), a consumer reveals his
preferences for certain goods or bundles of goods (see e.g. SAMUELSON 1948), or
HOUTHAKKER 1950). According to this, consumers’ responses on price and income changes
are assessed by means of analysing quantities, prices and income or budget constraints.
Parameters of price and income responses are relatively easy to estimate, but they do not
provide a complete assessment of all the influences on food demand. One of them is quality
differentiation: For example, meat is to be differentiated not only between different types
(pork, beef, mutton and poultry) but also between various levels of qualities, i.e. different cuts.
Demand for these varieties of meat changes with income (where, given a rise in income, one
shifts from a cheap pork chop to an expensive t-bone-steak), with consciousness for health
aspects (substituting "red" meat by "white" poultry meat), or with changing ethical attitudes
(when meat produced in feedlots is replaced by meat from grazing animals). The same holds
for milk: The consumption of whole milk declines over time and with increasing income.
Demand then shifts to dairy products with higher level of processing, like cheese (which is, to
some extent, a luxury food item) or yoghurt, which is often consumed for functional purposes
like health or beauty. Other factors are socio-cultural effects like changes of age or household
structure or sectoral employment structure and consequently different nutritional requirements
both in terms of food quantity and quality. For example, less food is consumed at home, more
is consumed at work. Or processed food like instant soups becomes more important in
societies where time preferences are of high significance and opportunity costs of cooking are
also high.
Due to all these facts, the scope of determinants considered in the analysis of meat demand is
more and more broadened and supplemented by factors which account for differences in the
structure of age, gender, social status etc. of the population. Each group of them is believed to
have also differences in their preferences themselves. Hereafter, they are summarized with the
term "socio-cultural" factors, instead of revealing them only by means of prices and quantities
(HENZE 1994).
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 11

2.3 Methodological approach of the study


The above mentioned developments are of a high significance for the study. It attempts to
apply both aspects of the analysis: The "classical" (or rather: neo-classical) one which assesses
the impact of changes in prices and income on food demand, and the "modern" one that tries
to depict demand changes from changing attitudes, preferences and demographic structures.
The classical analysis is based on information from various statistical sources: The FAO-
Agrostat database and recent EU-reports. It assesses demand quantities with respect to prices,
income and supply.
The modern analysis is based on an expert survey that was conducted for the purpose of this
study. In this survey, the country experts first had to give their estimations of demand changes
for a broad scope of food items in various forms until the year 2010 for the country they are
responsible for. The scale of possible estimations comprised five degrees: -2 = strongly
negative, -1 = negative, 0 = no change of demand, 1 = positive change of demand, 2 =
strongly positive change of demand. There were nine dairy products under assessment,
including dairy products as a whole, and 14 meat products, including three categories of total
meat demand (Table 1).
Table 1: Products and product categories assessed
Milk products assessed Meat products assessed
Liquid Milk Beef, of which
Other drinks containing milk ingredients High quality cuts
Yoghurt Low quality cuts
Ice cream Meat products containing primarily beef
Other desserts Veal
Cream Pig, of which
Cheese High quality cuts
Butter Low quality cuts
Total dairy products Meat products containing primarily beef
Mutton and goat meat
Poultry meat, of which
Breast meat
Other poultry meat
Meat products containing primarily
poultry
Meat total, of which
Meat
Meat products (e.g. sausages)
Offals (e.g. kidney, liver)
Source: Own questionnaire.
In a second step, the reasons for the expected developments in food demand were assessed by
the experts. The scale was the same (from -2 = strongly negative impact on demand to +2 =
strongly positive impact on demand), and there were 13 reasons given both for the meat and
the dairy group (Table 2). There is no doubt that such a rating-based survey is to be interpreted
with highest care. First, experts were asked only once and not in several rounds as in a
formalised Delphi-study, which implies that the experts had no chance to correct their ratings
in the light of the other experts' ratings. Second, the ratings given by the experts cannot be
transformed into ordinal numbers but have to be interpreted in relation to the country
background. Thus, aggregation across countries or products is difficult and will not be done in
cases where countries are heterogeneous in their economic and especially consumption
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 12

characteristics. However, the rating can provide valuable information. Absolute figures
already exist in various reports (see e.g. EUROPEAN COMMISSION 2001). The present study
goes further and does not only assess what will happen, but also why. It therefore closes the
gap between aggregate and descriptive figures on the one hand and modern assessment on the
other hand, and it thus enriches existing studies of demographic factors mentioned above.
Table 2: Reasons for forecasted development by product category
Increase in health consciousness
Trendy product
Increasing level of variety
Change in demographic structure
Growing relevance of convenience
Growing importance of environmental consciousness
Increasing share of off-home food consumption
Increasing relevance of advertisement for competing products (e.g. liquid milk vs. soft drinks)1
Please, assess how the retail price of the good considered will change relative to all other food items.
Please, assess how the expected increase in real income per capita affects the consumption of the
good considered.
Please, indicate whether for the good considered there is a trend towards varieties with higher quality.
Is there expected to be any change in the consumption of competing food items that will affect the
demand of the product considered? If yes, please, name the food items and indicate the direction of
change for the product considered.
What influence can be expected from the integration into the Single Market on the demand of the
product considered?
Remark: 1 Asked only for meat products.
Source: Own questionnaire.

3 ASSESSMENT I: MEAT AND DAIRY CONSUMPTION IN THE NINETIES

3.1 Meat consumption

3.1.1 Meat total


Meat consumption generally faced a sharp decline during the nineties in almost all accession
countries. Declines amounted to between 10 and 20 percent of the consumption amount in the
late eighties, however with great differences between the countries. The greatest falls were
experienced in Latvia (-49 %) and Lithuania (-28 %), followed by other countries, like
Bulgaria and Estonia, where the rate of decline significantly exceeded ten percent. The only
country with a positive development of meat consumption is Slovenia, where meat
consumption sharply increased by 80 percent (Table 3). However, this increase is probably
mainly caused by changes in the Slovenian statistical survey ("statistical break"), which took
place between 1992 and 1993.
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 13

Table 3: Changes in meat consumption (kg p.c. and year) during the nineties
Country Changes from 1989-2000 Changes from 1997-2000,
(in % of 1989 or base year 1,2) (in % of 1997)
Estonia -182 -6
Latvia -492 -7
Lithuania -282 -1
Poland -6 6
Czech Republic -201 -5
Slovak Republic -131 -10
Hungary -17 25
Slovenia 802 2
Romania -16 -5
Bulgaria -21 13
Remark: 1 Data since 1993 (base year), 2 Data since 1992 (base year). From 1992 to 1993, the statistical survey in
Slovenia changed considerably.
Source: Own calculations, data: FAO-Agrostat.
The absolute amount of meat consumption was, by the end of the nineties in most of the
countries below that of the European Union (about 90 kg p.c.) and ranged between 51 kg p.c.
in Romania and 96 kg p.c. in Slovenia, the exception to the rule again, as Slovenia is the only
country where meat consumption exceeds that of the EU-15 in the nineties (Annex I, Table
I.1).
At the end of the nineties, meat consumption recovered in some of the countries, namely
Hungary, Bulgaria and Poland, but not enough to reach pre-transition values. The largest
increases during the period 97-99 were found in Hungary and Bulgaria, while in Slovenia the
slow growth indicated rather saturated markets.
The development of meat consumption in the transition countries, immediately after transition
in the early nineties, was the result of the overall structural adjustment. First of all, income
declined in most of the countries until the mid-nineties and then only slowly recovered in the
second half of the decade. Income recovered long before meat consumption recovered or at
least showed some kind of recovery. Thus, there must have been other reasons for the decline
in meat consumption: Supplies were reduced even more than demand, and the resulting price
increases were a major cause of the fall in purchases. In addition, a much broader scope of
consumption goods was offered so that consumers reconsidered their eating habits. The sharp
reduction in supply was due to the fact that a formerly subsidised sector now had to re-
orientate towards market conditions. Input prices, especially for feedstuffs, increased, and
these costs could not be covered by the market returns. Production decreased, and with the
consequently rising prices demand followed on its way down. Livestock husbandry contracted
substantially reaching the bottom at around the mid-nineties, so that a recovery of supply was
not likely to be achieved with a possible demand-increase in the late nineties. This again
affected prices and consumption. Consequently, as major causes for the sharp fall in meat
consumption in the nineties the restructuring of spending together with the fall in real income
and increases in relative prices for food, especially meat. The latter was also caused by higher
production costs and a shrinking agricultural sector that has not yet recovered (EUROPEAN
COMISSION 1998).

3.1.2 Beef
Beef consumption declined most sharply in the nineties and unlike the case for other kinds of
meat has not recovered so far. The lowest fall was in Romania with –31 percent during the
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 14

nineties and the greatest fall of –68 percent was observed in Latvia. Slovenia was the only
country to have shown an increase of beef consumption in the nineties, but even so in the late
nineties, there was also a decline of – 5 percent (Table 4). This shows that the beef sector was
the one that was most affected by the adjustments described above in section 3.1.1.
Table 4: Changes in beef consumption (kg p.c. and year) during the nineties
Country Changes from 1989-2000 Changes from 1997-2000
(in % of 1989 or base year 1,2) (in % of 1997)
Estonia -572 -24
Latvia -682 -14
Lithuania -612 -23
Poland -53 -14
Czech Republic -621 -41
Slovak Republic -491 -27
Hungary -34 -18
Slovenia 362 -5
Romania -31 -13
Bulgaria -35 10
Remark: 1 Data since 1993 (base year), 2 Data since 1992 (base year). From 1992 to 1993, the statistical survey in
Slovenia changed considerably.
Source: Own calculations, data: FAO-Agrostat.
How highly the beef sector was subsidised can be shown by the fact that before transition, in
many CEE-countries beef consumption was higher than in the EU, especially in the Baltics
where beef production was subsidised by the former Soviet Union. These countries show the
sharpest decline of all (Annex I, Table I.2).

3.1.3 Pig meat


Pig meat consumption did not fall to the same extent as beef. In Lithuania and the Slovak
Republic pig meat consumption increased after transition (The reported increase in Slovenia is
probably caused by the statistical break in 1992/93). In Poland consumption was more or less
stable. In the other six countries, it decreased during the nineties but shows, in most of the
countries, tendencies of recovery in the late nineties (Table 5).
Table 5: Changes in pig meat consumption (kg p.c.) during the nineties
Country Changes from 1989-2000 Changes from 1997-2000
(in % of 1989 or base year 1,2) (in % of 1997)
Estonia -42 25
Latvia -372 -11
Lithuania 322 38
Poland 1 10
Czech Republic -281 -5
Slovak Republic 121 -14
Hungary -39 17
Slovenia 492 2
Romania -21 -10
Bulgaria -19 17
Remark: 1 Data since 1993 (base year), 2 Data since 1992 (base year). From 1992 to 1993, the statistical survey in
Slovenia changed considerably.
Source: Own calculations, data: FAO-Agrostat.
For the six countries where pig meat consumption has declined since the beginning of
transition, it can be said that in two of them, Hungary and the Czech Republic, consumption
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 15

has decreased from a high level to the level of the EU-15. Bulgaria, Romania, Estonia and
Latvia have traditionally had a low level of pig meat consumption but even so the level fell
further in response to declining incomes (Annex I, Table I.3).
3.1.4 Poultry
Poultry consumption has increased since the beginning of transition in most of the countries.
Only Bulgaria, Lithuania and Latvia show a decline of poultry consumption, Lithuania and
Estonia have a declining consumption in the late nineties. In the other countries, the increase
of poultry consumption has slowed in the late nineties, but on the whole poultry is the
booming branch in the CEEC-10 livestock sector (Table 6).
Table 6: Changes in annual poultry consumption (kg p.c.) during the nineties
Country Changes from 1989-2000 Changes from 1997-2000
(in % of 1989 or base year 1,2) (in % of 1997)
Estonia 802 -28
Latvia -22 16
Lithuania -142 -29
Poland 62 9
Czech Republic 851 20
Slovak Republic 461 5
Hungary 63 49
Slovenia 2312 8
Romania 18 9
Bulgaria -15 20
Remark: 1 Data since 1993 (base year), 2 Data since 1992 (base year). From 1992 to 1993, the statistical survey in
Slovenia changed considerably.
Source: Own calculations, data: FAO-Agrostat.
Poultry consumption of Hungary and Slovenia exceeds that of the EU, whereas the Czech
Republic has reached about the EU-level (Annex I, Table I.4).
3.1.5 Mutton and goat
Ovine meat consumption shows the same features as beef consumption: In most of the
countries, except for Slovenia, it has decreased during the nineties. And, except for Bulgaria,
where a slight recovery is seen in the late nineties, this trend has not been turned around at the
time when overall meat consumption began to recover (Table 7).
Table 7: Changes in mutton and goat consumption (kg p.c.) during the nineties
Country Changes from 1989-2000 Changes from 1997-2000
(in % of 1989 or base year 1,2) (in % of 1997)
Estonia -732 0
Latvia -872 0
Lithuania -602 -33
Poland -100 -100
Czech Republic -201 0
Slovak Republic 01 0
Hungary -60 0
Slovenia 3002 133
Romania -32 -11
Bulgaria -18 5
Remark: 1 Data since 1993 (base year), 2 Data since 1992 (base year). From 1992 to 1993, the statistical survey in
Slovenia changed considerably.
Source: Own calculations, data: FAO-Agrostat.
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 16

In most of the ten CEEC, mutton and goat consumption is significantly lower than in the EU.
The exception is Bulgaria, where even after the decrease of the nineties consumption is higher
than in the EU, and Romania. Romanian consumption has fallen over the nineties from a level
originally higher than in the EU. In all the other countries, consumption of ovine meat is and
was on a relatively low level, so that small absolute changes are high in relative terms (Annex
I, Table I.5).

3.1.6 Concluding remarks on the meat consumption in CEEC-10 during the nineties
It can be concluded that whereas the overall demand for meat fell during the nineties the
underlying developments varied according to the type of meat. Beef and mutton consumption
declined sharply while that of pork and poultry developed positively. An income effect and a
substitution effect could be observed with the former being stronger than the latter.
This development was only partly caused by the direct income effects of transition. Income
declined until the early mid-nineties, and recovered from 1995 in most of the countries, except
for Bulgaria that had to face crises in 1996/1997. Another part of the decrease of consumption
was due to the rising prices of meat: A reduction of formerly planned and subsidised
production yielded in a shortage of supply, rising prices and finally reduced consumption.
Imported meat must have been too expensive to bring consumption up to the former level. It is
also noteworthy that consumption of white meat grew being relatively low cost and having
short production cycles. An additional cause might be the loss of consumers' confidence
especially in beef products after the BSE-crises of the late nineties.

3.2 Dairy consumption

3.2.1 Total milk consumption


Milk consumption during the nineties also fell. But unlike total meat consumption, it did not,
except for a few countries, recover in the late nineties. The only positive trends can be seen in
Slovenia, Lithuania and Romania. This is interesting, as two economically extremely different
countries, Slovenia and Romania, show the same consumption patterns - at least at first
glance. Yet, looking closer, explanations can be found that lead to different conclusions. Milk
consumption in Romania has not increased despite the well-known fall in income, but because
of it. Small scale farming including one or two dairy cows has increased in the last decade,
and consequently raw milk has become an important food that is produced and consumed on
the spot. Slovenia is the country where increasing income has probably led to a rise in
consumption in the form of processed products. Concerning Lithuania, it is likely that the
reasons for the slightly increased milk consumption were the same as in Romania. The
developments during the nineties can be seen in Table 8.
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 17

Table 8: Consumption of milk* (excl. butter) in CEEC-10 during the nineties (kg
p.c. and year)
Country Changes 1989-2000 Changes 1997-2000
(in % of 1989 or base year 1,2) (in % of 1997)
Estonia -322 27
Latvia -132 -18
Lithuania 222 41
Poland -24 2
Czech Republic -61 10
Slovak Republic -261 -2
Hungary -13 4
Slovenia 122 0
Romania 41 1
Bulgaria -19 0
Remark: * all dairy products except for butter converted back to their primary equivalent, i.e. raw milk.
1
Data since 1993 (base year), 2 Data since 1992 (base year).
Source: Own calculations, data: FAO-Agrostat.
Milk consumption per capita at the end of the nineties was in all of the CEEC-10 lower than
in the EU. It can be assumed that the trend in dairy consumption was induced by the same
factors that made beef consumption decline, namely declining incomes plus on the supply side
rising production costs and downsizing of herds. The absolute values of milk consumption
development are shown in Annex I, Table I.6.

3.2.2 Consumption of butter


The consumption of butter shows the same negative trend as milk consumption during the
nineties. The only positive trend can be seen in Estonia. Romania and Lithuania, although
with positive trends in milk consumption, now show negative effects (Table 9). This may
have arisen because butter is a processed derivative of milk, which, contrarily to its raw
product, cannot be easily produced and consumed on the same spot. Thus, with greater
reliance on subsistence agriculture, raw milk consumption increases, while butter
consumption consequently decreases.
Table 9: Consumption of butter in CEEC-10 during the nineties (kg p.c. and year)
Country Changes from 1989-2000 Changes from 1997-2000
(in % of 1989 or base year 1,2) (in % of 1997)
Estonia 252 59
Latvia -632 -14
Lithuania -632 0
Poland -50 2
Czech Republic -161 8
Slovak Republic -181 13
Hungary -58 -17
Slovenia -102 0
Romania -75 -25
Bulgaria -90 50
Remark: 1 Data since 1993 (base year), 2 Data since 1992 (base year).
Source: Own calculations, data: FAO-Agrostat.
Butter consumption in the low income CEE-countries lies far below the EU average, whereas
in the high income CEE-countries, butter consumption is equivalent to the EU average,
namely in Poland and the Czech Republic, but also in Estonia (Annex I, Table I.7).
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 18

3.2.3 Consumption of cream


Cream consumption shows the same patterns as the items discussed before. It declines in most
of the countries except Estonia, Hungary, the Slovak Republic and Slovenia. Changes are
shown in Table 10, absolute values are shown in Annex I, Table I.8.
Table 10: Consumption of cream in CEEC-10 during the nineties (kg p.c. and year)
Country Changes from 1989-2000 Changes from 1997-2000
(in % of 1989 or base year 1,2) (in % of 1997)
Estonia 02 16
Latvia -452 -4
Lithuania -642 -54
Poland -53 6
Czech Republic -321 -28
Slovak Republic 201 24
Hungary 4 64
Slovenia 1332 43
Romania n.a. n.a.
Bulgaria n.a. n.a.
Remark: 1 Data since 1993 (base year), 2 Data since 1992 (base year).
Source: Own calculations, data: FAO-Agrostat

3.2.4 Consumption of cheese


Cheese consumption is the only light in the darkness of dairy consumption. It shows positive
developments in most of the CEEC-10 in the nineties. Countries with a negative trend are
Bulgaria, Romania (probably both due to declining income), and Latvia. The latter shows at
least some recovery in the late nineties (Table 11).
Table 11: Consumption of cheese in CEEC-10 during the nineties (kg p.c.)
Country Changes from 1989-2000 Changes from 1997-2000
(in % of 1989 or base year 1,2) (in % of 1997)
Estonia 282 58
Latvia -252 39
Lithuania 112 -2
Poland -1 0
Czech Republic 311 16
Slovak Republic 651 34
Hungary 22 0
Slovenia 232 -11
Romania -50 -5
Bulgaria -78 -39
Remark: 1 Data since 1993 (base year), 2 Data since 1992 (base year).
Source: Own calculations, data: FAO-Agrostat.
Cheese consumption in the CEEC-10 lies at maximum 75 % of that of the EU, but mostly far
below this amount. Absolute values are shown in Annex 1, Table I.9.

3.2.5 Concluding remarks on milk consumption in CEEC-10 during the nineties


Milk and milk products show a decline in consumption during the nineties. The picture here is
less diverse than for meat consumption, which might have statistical reasons, as there is a
broader variety among meat than dairy products. However, it can also be shown that in the
dairy sector, high value products like cheese show increasing demand. Milk consumption in
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 19

the form of fresh milk seems to be highest in the relatively wealthy countries (consumption of
high value added milk products), and in poorest countries, where there is great reliance on
subsistence represented by small farms with only a few cows that produce and consume on the
spot.
What is also indicated by the above mentioned "fresh milk phenomenon" is the need for
further differentiation of milk products, as differences in socio-cultural factors may explain
some part of the variation in consumption of these goods. An attempt will be made in the
subsequent chapter, to explain both of these for meat and dairy products.

4 ASSESSMENT II: PROSPECTS FOR MEAT AND DAIRY PRODUCTS

4.1 Overall meat and dairy consumption in CEEC as prospected until 2008
The forecasts of meat consumption reflect a certain continuation of past developments. Total
per capita consumption is expected to rise only slightly until the end of this decade. But
substitution effects are more dynamic: Beef and veal consumption is expected to decrease
slightly, whereas pig meat consumption will be more stable with a slight increase. Continued
growth in poultry meat consumption is expected. Ovine meat consumption will also decline,
at a high rate in relative terms, but at a low rate in absolute terms, as it is already at a low level
(Table 12).
Table 12: Meat consumption prospects for the CEEC-10 (in kg p.c.)
1999 2004 2008 Change '99-'08 (% of 1999)
Beef and veal 9.6 9.3 9.2 -4.2
Pig meat 41.4 40.8 42.1 1.7
Poultry meat 15.4 17.6 19 23.4
Sheep and goat 1.1 0.9 0.8 -27.3
Total per cap. Consumption 67.5 68.6 71.1 5.3
Source: EUROPEAN COMISSION 2001.
Contrary to meat consumption, dairy consumption is likely to decline, but only slightly.
Butter, and fresh milk consumption will be reduced. The strongest relative effects are seen for
cheese, but that only means an absolute increase of 1.6 kg p.c. (Table 13).
Table 13: Dairy consumption prospects for the CEEC-10 (in kg p.c.)
1999 2004 2008 Change '99-'08 (% of 1999)
Milk 227.00 224.00 223.00 -1.8
Butter 2.75 2.69 2.68 -2.6
Cheese 7.50 8.40 9.10 21.3
Total 237.25 235.09 234.78 -1.0
Source: EUROPEAN COMISSION 2001.

4.2 Detailed consumption prospects for meat as reported by the experts

4.2.1 Overall demand developments


Table 14 shows the expected changes in meat consumption as stated by the experts. For
evaluation purposes, the ratings from strongly negative to strongly positive have now been
transformed into quantitative figures with a range from –2 to 2, in units of one. This approach
should not create the illusion that these are ordinal numbers. They can only be interpreted
relatively and with respect to the country background. Thus, the simple average given at the
bottom of the table will provide only a trend that has to be carefully interpreted by taking into
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 20

account the differences in characteristics of the population of each country. The subsequent
section will briefly assess the different meat products.
Beef is expected to experience only a slightly positive trend. High quality cuts are best off
with an overall trend of 0.67, low quality cuts are worst off with –0.33. These figures reflect
the trend in the individual countries: High quality beef cuts are expected to be consumed more
in Poland, Romania, the Slovak Republic, the Baltics and Slovenia, whereas in Hungary, the
Czech Republic and Bulgaria, it is expected that there will be no increase in consumption of
this product. For low quality beef cuts, the same holds: Consumption is likely to develop
negatively in a third of the countries, namely in the Czech Republic, the Slovak Republic and
Estonia, whereas in the rest of the region, there is no change expected. For meat products
containing beef, the picture is diverse. In Central Europe, namely Poland, the Czech Republic
and the Slovak Republic, trends are negative, while in Eastern and South-Eastern Europe the
trends are neutral or even positive.
Veal will have positive consumption trends, especially in Eastern Europe and Slovenia,
whereas in Central Europe, namely the Czech Republic, the Slovak Republic and Poland,
there will be no change.
Pig meat forecasts follow the expected statistical trends: High quality cuts are expected to be
demanded in increasing quantities throughout the CEEC-10, except for Poland where the
development will be neutral. Consumption of low quality cuts will decline, with a value of
-0.44, that means a negative development in four of the countries (Estonia –2, Poland,
Bulgaria and Romania –1, whereas only Hungary is expected to experience a rising demand
for low quality cuts. More pig meat products are also expected to be consumed except for
Estonia and Bulgaria (both –1).
Mutton and goat meat consumption is expected to rise in most of the countries. Only three of
the countries expect no change at all (Estonia, the Czech Republic and Bulgaria), all the other
countries expect positive changes. It is very interesting, that for this product, and only for this,
expectations of the experts differ from the forecasts of the European Commission.
The poultry meat forecasts are in agreement with the expectations of the statisticians. Breast
meat has the highest score of 1.22, with only one country, Hungary, expected to have stable
consumption (0). Almost the same holds for other poultry meat. The forecasts for poultry meat
products are also positive with some exceptions, namely Estonia that expects strongly
negative consumption developments in this market segment.
Regarding total meat consumption, the trend is also mainly upwards for meat, as in only two
countries, the consumption is anticipated to be stable in the future. The same holds for meat
products, whereas offal consumption is likely to decrease in most of the countries, except for
Estonia, Hungary and Slovenia (no change at all), and Romania and the Czech Republic
(positive trend).
Looking at the above discussed facts, the anticipated consumption of different types of meat
seems to be diverse enough to be able to assess in detail the reasons for differences in future
consumption trends.
21

Table 14: Expert ratings for the development of meat consumption in CEEC-10*
Country Beef Veal Pig meat Mutton Poultry meat Meat total
and goat
meat
high Low meat High Low meat Breast other meat meat meat prod-ucts Offal (e.g.
quality quality products quality quality products meat poultry products (e.g. sausages, liver,
cuts cuts containing cuts cuts containing meat containing ham) kidneys)
primarily primarily primarily
beef pig meat poultry meat
Estonia 1 -1 0 1 1 -2 -1 0 1 1 -2 1 0 0
Lithuania 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 -1
Latvia n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Poland 1 0 -1 0 0 -1 0 1 2 1 1 0 0 -1
Czech 0 -1 -1 0 1 0 1 0 2 2 2 1 1 1
Republic
Slovak 1 -1 -1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 -1
Republic
Hungary 0 0 1 1 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0
Slovenia 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0
Romania 1 0 1 1 2 -1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1
Bulgaria 0 0 0 0 1 -1 -1 0 1 1 1 0 0 -1
Simple 0.67 -0.33 0.00 0.56 1.11 -0.44 0.44 0.67 1.22 0.78 0.67 0.78 0.67 -0.22
average
Remark: * Expectation of demand changes: -2: strongly negative, -1 negative, 0: no change, 1: positive, 2: strongly positive
Source: Own calculations based on the experts' ratings.
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 22

4.2.2 Determinants and effects of changes in meat consumption patterns


In this section, the determinants for the changes of consumption patterns, as well as certain
effects of meat and meat products will be assessed. The assessment covers both the above
discussed "neo-classical" determinants like income and the price structure of competing
goods, as well as "modern" demographic and psychological factors that determine
consumption of a good. The ratings are the same as above, with, of course, the same
reservations about the quantitative value of the ratings. The section will be divided in two
subsections (apart from the general remarks): The first will deal with the "(neo-) classical"
determinants like income and prices, the second deals with the "modern" demographic and
marketing oriented factors. Not all of these factors are significant or interpretable, so that the
following discussion will rather highlight important trends rather than explain every single
item (Table 15). In Table 15, an aggregation of the indices (again the simple average) is given.
The disaggregate country indices are given in Table I.10 and I.11 in annex I.
Increase in income will affect demand for meat products in different ways. Positively affected
by increased income are high quality cuts, especially of pig meat and – with the highest value
– of poultry breast meat. Special meat products like veal and ovine meat also have positive
prospects with increasing income and can therefore be characterised by a positive income
elasticity of demand. A negative income elasticity of demand is expected for all types of low
quality cuts, including offals. This assumption might, however, be too pessimistic. Low
quality products will have an elasticity below unity but hardly below zero.
The expected change of the retail price for the good is rather an effect than a determinant and
therefore it might seem that assessing this issue might be like putting the cart in front of the
horse. However, this figure highlights the relationship between supply and demand and the
respective developments. For beef, pig meat and meat in total, prices are expected to increase
in the case of high quality cuts and other meat products. This means that demand increases for
these products will exceed the supply increase. Low quality cuts are a by-product of those
with high quality. Hence, as demand for high quality products increases, it declines for low
quality cuts and consequently – as supply is coupled to that of high quality cuts – prices must
decline in order to get these products sold. Price developments for veal and ovine meat are
overall also considered to be positive. Interestingly, prices for poultry meat are expected to
decline, although demand for poultry meat is likely to increase. This can be explained by the
fact that poultry meat production can be increased in a rather industrial manner to meet the
demand, and on the other hand that increasing productivity in poultry production might be
handed over to the consumer through competition and declining prices.
Competing food items, or rather, competition between different food items seem to play an
important role in the future demand structure of the CEEC-10 meat sector. Beef is the product
with the highest negative effects from the exposure to competition. Pig meat also has to face
negative effects of competition for consumers' favour. Winners in competition are poultry
products, which are expected to win outright the race in the meat sector. The experts gave
several deeper explanations for this expected development. In their opinion, taste
improvements (e.g. through smoking) of poultry and pig meat can contribute to a substitution
for beef. Not only other meat products, but also milk products might substitute for beef. Fish
is also considered as a possible substitute for meat.
Having discussed – more or less directly - the neo-classical price, income and cross price
effects, the following section is dedicated to the modern analysis. The categories assessed will
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 23

explain both the overall effect described in section 4.2.1, and also the neo-classical categories
discussed above.
The change in demographic structure is a wide field and comprises change of age structure,
change of household size and marital structures, migration from rural to urban areas and many
other variables. According to the experts, these changes will, however, result mainly in
declining consumption of beef and beef products, but will apparently not influence much the
consumption of other meat products. In order to interpret it properly, a demographic study
should be fed into the analysis, which cannot be done within the scope of this study. A rough
interpretation could be the following: It can be hypothesised that beef is the meat of rural,
traditional and large families, whereas pork and poultry is consumed by younger urban and
those employed in the secondary and tertiary sector. If we assume that during transition,
families become smaller and people become urbanised then these hypotheses result in a
change in meat consumption.
Of high interest are the often competing issues of growing environmental and health
consciousness. Environmental consciousness favours beef consumption but not veal or the
"rising star" poultry. This could be due to the fact that beef production is perceived to be
associated with pasture fed animals and therefore environmental safety. Veal and poultry
production in contrast are associated with mass production, and maybe even cruelty to
animals. But environment and human health are not linked, as the results show: Healthy
products are poultry and – to a lesser extent – mutton, veal, and high quality pork and beef
cuts. This implies that for health reasons, low fat content and a certain awareness of the BSE
risk might be important. The significantly different ratings of the issues further imply that
themes at the interface of the issues, like animal welfare, nitrogen emissions and others do not
really matter.
Meat of higher quality seems to be favourable for all the products. The rise in the number of
different varieties will affect the same products as those with the high income effects. The
same holds for the increasing share of off-home food consumption and the growing relevance
of convenience, as they are all related to increasing income and the consequent effects. The
integration into a single EU-market has a similar impact as income effects implying that
positive income effects are expected from the single market entry which will foster
consumption. Trendy products are, as expected, poultry and high quality cuts of beef and pig
meat, as well as mutton and goat.
Summarising the analysis, it mainly shows the following points:
Meat consumption will by and large follow in CEEC-10 the same trends that can be seen in
the EU. Driving factors are income and the related effects of out of home consumption and
growing convenience, prices (especially for poultry), health consciousness and to a lesser
extent environmental consciousness. Ovine meat is seen as having positive perspectives,
contrary to some forecasts. This type of meat is seen as trendy, positively income elastic and
relatively healthy, however, not to the degree of poultry or pig meat.
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 24

Table 15: Expert ratings for the determinants of meat consumption in CEEC-10*
Reason Beef Veal Pig meat Mutton Poultry meat Meat total
and goat
meat
high low Meat high Low meat products breast other meat products meat meat Offal (e.g.
quality quality products quality quality containing meat poultry meat containing products liver,
cuts cuts containing cuts cuts primarily pig primarily (e.g. kidneys)
primarily meat poultry meat sausages,
beef ham)
Increase in real income 0.89 -0.11 0.44 1.11 1.22 -0.33 0.63 0.63 1.25 1.00 0.75 1.25 1.00 -0.25
Change of retail price 0.78 -0.22 0.33 0.67 0.33 -0.33 0.11 0.33 -0.33 -0.67 -0.56 0.67 0.22 0.22
relative to all other food
items.
Competing food items -0.44 -0.33 -0.22 -0.11 -0.22 -0.11 -0.11 0.11 0.33 0.33 0.33 -0.11 0.00 -0.11
Advertisement for -0.11 -0.11 -0.11 0.00 0.00 -0.22 0.11 0.11 0.00 -0.11 0.00 -0.11 0.00 -0.11
competing products
Change in demographic -0.22 -0.44 -0.33 -0.11 0.00 0.11 0.22 0.00 0.00 0.22 0.22 -0.22 0.00 0.11
structure
Growing environmental 0.22 0.11 0.22 -0.11 0.00 -0.22 -0.11 0.33 -0.11 -0.33 -0.25 -0.13 0.00 0.00
consciousness
Growing relevance of 0.22 -0.22 0.00 0.11 0.22 -0.22 0.11 0.00 0.56 0.44 0.33 0.11 0.22 -0.11
convenience
Increase in health 0.22 -0.33 -0.33 0.44 0.22 -0.67 -0.33 0.44 0.89 0.44 0.44 0.22 0.00 -0.44
consciousness
Increasing level of variety 0.44 -0.11 0.56 0.44 0.56 -0.22 0.67 0.33 0.44 0.56 0.56 0.56 1.00 0.00
Increasing share of off-home 0.78 -0.22 0.33 0.33 0.89 0.00 0.67 0.44 1.00 0.78 0.44 0.89 0.67 0.22
food consumption
Trendy product 0.00 -0.44 0.00 0.33 0.33 -0.22 0.33 0.44 0.33 0.44 0.44 0.33 0.22 -0.33
Varieties with higher 0.78 0.22 0.78 0.67 0.78 0.11 0.89 0.44 0.78 0.67 1.00 0.89 0.78 0.11
quality.
Integration into the Single 0.56 -0.22 0.56 0.67 0.56 -0.22 0.56 0.67 0.78 0.56 0.56 0.89 0.67 -0.11
Market
Remark: * Expectation of demand changes: -2: strongly negative, -1 negative, 0: no change, 1: positive, 2: strongly positive
Source: Own calculations based on the experts' ratings.
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 25

4.3 Detailed consumption prospects for dairy products as stated by the experts

4.3.1 Overall demand developments


Table 16 shows the expert ratings for the development of the consumption of different dairy
products. Here we can see that the expert ratings differ from the forecasts cited in section 4.1.
The expert ratings assume a positive trend in dairy consumption in almost all countries except
Bulgaria where no change is expected in the next decade.
Ratings for the dairy sector seem to be more homogeneous across countries than in the meat
sector, at least as far as the main products are concerned. But this can also have its origin in
the fact that quality differences are more pronounced among meat than dairy products
included in the questionnaire.
The worst expectations are reported for butter. It is the only product with a negative rating,
with only two countries, Romania and Hungary, having positive expectations for butter
consumption. Cheese is the product with the best expectations for the next decade throughout
all the countries (except for Estonia), closely followed by yoghurt, for which only Bulgaria is
expected to have no changes at all. Desserts and milk drinks are also expected to develop
positively in all the countries, whereas fresh milk and cream are expected to have a rather
moderate growth, except for Romania, where the fresh milk phenomenon will continue in the
future: A low income and high income elasticity for milk products that are of a relative low
price are the driving factors for this development. It should, however, not be neglected that in
Romania, cheese also has good prospects.
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 26

Table 16: Expert ratings for the development of dairy consumption in CEEC-10*
Country Liquid Milk Other drinks Yoghurt Icecream Other Cream Cheese Butter Total dairy
containing desserts products
milk
ingredients
Estonia 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 -1 1
Latvia 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1
Lithuania 0 1 2 0 1 -1 1 -1 1
Poland 0 1 2 1 2 -1 2 -1 1
Czech Republic 0 1 2 1 1 1 2 0 1
Slovak Republic -1 1 2 1 1 0 2 -1 1
Hungary 1 1 1 2 2 0 1 1 1
Slovenia 1 1 1 1 0 1 2 0 1
Romania 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1
Bulgaria 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 -1 0
Unweighted average 0.5 0.9 1.3 1 1.1 0.2 1.4 -0.3 0.9
Remark: * Expectation of demand changes: -2: strongly negative, -1 negative, 0: no change, 1: positive, 2: strongly positive
Source: Own calculations based on the experts' ratings.
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 27

4.2.3 Determinants and effects of changes in dairy consumption patterns


To start again with the neo-classical determinants, we look at income and price effects
(Table 17). We can see that dairy products are income elastic, with a simple average of 1.33,
which is higher than the one for meat products. The highest income elasticity of demand is
found for cheese, which is the only product that outperforms total dairy products in this
category. Desserts, yoghurt and milk drinks follow with a rating of 1.11 and 1 respectively.
Modest expectations of income effects are given for ice cream, cream, cheese, butter and fresh
milk.
The change of the retail price effect that is expected to be induced by demand and supply
reactions is much less drastic than that of meat. It is modest between 0.11 and 0.44 for most of
the products. The highlight is yoghurt (0.56), and the last in line with the only decrease is
cream.
Competing food items will not affect overall dairy consumption very much, except for those
products which can be replaced by fruit and vegetables, e.g. fruit drinks (replacing milk drinks
with a rating of –0.33), fruit (replacing desserts) and margarine (replacing butter).
If we interpret demographic changes in the same way as for meat products then it follows that,
cheese and yoghurt are the products for the small young and urban families, whereas butter is
definitively not.
Environmental consciousness affects dairy consumption positively but to quite a low extent,
contrary to meat consumption, where ratings are much more diverse. But it is logical, when
we consider that beef production has the best environment ratings, and milk production is very
much related to beef.
The growing relevance of convenience leads to higher positive ratings than for meat products,
which implies that with the economic and demographic change, "faster" kinds of food are
dairy products. Values are quite high for all products, except for butter, which is well known
for not being as well transportable in handbags as a yoghurt beaker.
Increase in health consciousness has in general a higher positive impact on dairy consumption
than on meat consumption. Moreover, this rating is more diverse than many of the other
ratings. Highest health ratings are obtained for yoghurt (1.33) and cheese (1), negative impacts
of growing health consciousness are expected for products with high fat contents such as
butter (-0.67) and cream (-0.44).
The increasing level of product differentiation will affect dairy products (1.11) more than
meat products (0.56). High ratings are given for milk drinks, yoghurt, desserts and cheese of
between 1.22 and 1.44, a lower rating for ice-cream (1) and for the less favourable products
like butter and cream (0.22 and 0.44 respectively).
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 28

Table 17: Expert ratings for the determinants of dairy consumption in CEEC-10*
Reason Liquid Other drinks containing Yoghurt Ice cream Other Cream Cheese Butter Total dairy
Milk milk ingredients desserts products
Increase in real income 0.56 1.00 1.11 0.89 1.11 0.56 1.56 0.56 1.33
Change of retail price 0.33 0.22 0.56 0.11 0.22 -0.11 0.44 0.11 0.33
relative to all other food
items.
Competing food items 0.11 -0.33 0.00 0.00 -0.11 0.11 0.00 -0.44 0.11
Change in demographic 0.22 0.11 0.44 0.11 0.00 0.11 0.56 -0.33 0.33
structure
Growing environmental 0.22 0.22 0.33 0.11 0.00 0.22 0.44 0.11 0.33
consciousness
Growing relevance of 0.44 0.67 1.00 0.56 0.78 0.67 0.89 0.11 0.78
convenience
Increase in health 0.56 0.44 1.33 0.11 0.22 -0.44 1.00 -0.67 0.89
consciousness
Increasing level of variety 0.33 1.22 1.33 1.00 1.22 0.44 1.44 0.22 1.11
Increasing share of out- 0.00 0.89 0.67 0.78 1.11 0.22 0.89 -0.22 0.78
of-home food
consumption
Trendy product 0.22 0.67 0.89 0.56 0.67 -0.11 0.89 -0.56 0.56
Integration into the Single 0.11 1.11 0.89 0.67 1.00 0.33 1.22 -0.11 1.00
Market
Varieties with higher 0.89 1.11 1.56 1.11 1.11 0.44 1.56 0.44 1.22
quality.
Remark: * Expectation of demand changes: -2: strongly negative, -1 negative, 0: no change, 1: positive, 2: strongly positive
Source: Own calculations based on the experts' ratings.
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 29

Off-home consumption will be a driving force especially for desserts, drinks and cheese, and it
will have a negative effect on butter.
The other ratings can also be considered as explanatory or derivative items. Butter and cream
are not trendy products, whereas cheese and yoghurt are. The trend towards product variety
with higher quality dairy products is higher than that of meat products, and especially high for
cheese and yoghurt (both 1.56). Integration into the Single Market will probably enhance the
trends mentioned above, mainly through influencing other factors like income.
The analysis shows that milk products, like meat also follow a positive trend. Parameters like
health consciousness and convenience have a strong impact, as they outperform positive
income elasticity for butter and cream. Income effects seem to be stronger than for meat and
peak ratings for dairy products, especially for income, are higher than for meat products. Dairy
products are partly seen as substitutes for meat products. Products with high fat content will
be substituted by fruit and vegetable products.

5 FEED USE

5.1 Introduction: Aim and structure of the study


Following the analysis of human consumption of meat and dairy products feed use is
discussed. This is justified since at the production and marketing chain is looked at from two
opposing sides; consumption and production, simply speaking the two ends of the chain.
Recent developments have shown that these ends are much closer together than one might
expect: BSE and other occurrences have shown that feeding of animals is controversially
discussed among consumers, and the consequences of the BSE-crisis were that feeding was
adjusted, also because of the pressure from the demand side. An increased consumer demand
for white meat has as a consequence that cereals and especially soft wheat will be used to a
larger extent than before, and therefore consequences for the wheat markets in Europe, and
beyond.
The structure of the study is set up accordingly. The subsequent section deals – in brief – with
some theoretical and methodological aspects. The following third section is divided in two
parts, of which the first one deals with the development of animal production in the CEEC
prospected for the next decade, the second part deals with the qualitative analysis of the
impact of production change on feed use. The latter part is based on the expert survey that was
conducted simultaneously with the survey on food consumption.

5.2 Theoretical and methodological aspects


Feed demand, production and use depend on different factors, among which the most
important is of course the simple quantity of livestock, but also its structure, e.g. the ratio of
dairy and beef cattle. Closely linked to this are the prices and production costs of feedstuff,
and the productivity of different types of fodder in different ways of using (REISCH and
ZEDDIES 1992).
The following analysis tries to take these relationships into consideration. As above, it
assesses feed use from a quantitative as well as a qualitative point of view. The quantitative
aspects are covered on the base of official statistics that have the disadvantage of being highly
aggregated, but give a valuable overview of possible future trends in CEEC. The qualitative
aspects are treated in the subsequent section, where the results of a survey among the network
experts are analysed. The questionnaire set up mainly follows the same systematic as in the
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 30

section of food consumption. It also covers two steps. The first step is to assess the impact of
changes in the expected total animal production on feed use. Assessment will be done for five
groups of products, two of them (cereals and protein feeds) further divided in three and four
subgroups respectively (Table 18). The impact on each product group is assessed separately
for the following production systems: milk, beef, pork, poultry and eggs.
Table 18: Product groups and subgroups assessed
Product group Subgroups
Cereals Cereals total
Maize
Barley
Wheat
Protein feeds Protein feed total
Soybean cake
Sunflowerseed cake
Rape seed cake
Legumes
Starchy roots
Grassland and pasture
Other roughage (clover, alfalfa, etc.)

The second step investigates the determinants of the developments of feed use from a
technical point of view. Without considering specific production systems, for each product or
product group, detailed determinants of costs, prices and technologies are investigated that
influence feed use. On a mere technological level, harvesting, storage and feeding
technologies are considered. On animal production level, breed developments and product
quality requirements (e.g. for low-fat meat) are investigated. Costs of feed production in terms
of input prices (wages) are on the list as well as costs of feed use in terms of price
developments of the different items. Finally, some "soft" factors like the farmers' knowledge
or the overall impact of the EU-accession are listed.
Table 19: Technical developments affecting feed use
Please, assess the impact of the following technical developments on feed use
in harvesting (e.g. combine for harvesting fodder beets)
in storage (e.g. hay bails using plastic for covering)
in feeding (e.g. automatic feeding during milking according to performance)
Do you see any changes in labour costs and wages affecting the use of feed?
Please, assess the impact of improvements in the quality of animal products on the use of the
feed item considered (e.g. low-fat pig meat)
Please, assess the impact of expected changes in production techniques and in breeds (e.g.
growing importance of meat cattle breeds)
Please, assess how the price of the feed item considered will change relative to all other feed
items.
Please, asses how improvements in farmers' knowledge will change the use of feed?
Do you foresee some special aspects of enlargement on feed use beyond those covered above?

The assessment scheme further follows the one that was applied for the food consumption
analysis. The experts were asked for ratings from -2, strongly negative across 0 to +2, strongly
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 31

positive. These ratings are then transformed in absolute figures as above. The criticisms and
shortcomings about aggregation and weighting mentioned in the food consumption section
apply in the same way as above, maybe even more as not for every item and every country
responses were available.

5.3 Prospects for feed use

5.3.1 Developments in animal production


The number of livestock heavily depends on the demand for meat, meat products, as well as
milk and milk products. This has been subject to discussion in the previous chapters, where
we found that the domestic demand is heterogeneous but with some general trends visible:
The increase in meat demand will mainly affect white meat, i.e. poultry, while the demand for
red meat will decrease during the next decade. This results in an increase of poultry stocks and
a consequent higher demand for appropriate feed items. Pig production is also to increase, so
that the use of feed grains will most likely be on the rise (Annex II, Table II.1). Concerning
cattle, we have to distinguish between beef and dairy cattle. Beef cattle production is likely to
decrease, given the decreasing demand for beef and veal (Annex II, Table II.2). The demand
for milk products will slightly decrease, but at the same time, there will be a structural change
in the dairy herds: While the number of cows will decrease by 13 percent until the year 2008,
the yield per cow is estimated to increase by 11 percent. Consequently, the milk production
will decrease only by about 4 percent, in some countries, like Latvia, it is expected to even
increase or be at least stable (Annex II, Table II.3). This implies that overall fodder demand
will decrease but also the quality structure will change, as roughage and pasture will be
substituted or at least supplemented by protein and starch containing feedstuffs.
Another important point of feed use is technological progress, especially as far as the animals'
conversion of feed into meat, milk or eggs is concerned. In this field technical progress is
expected for almost all CEEC until the end of the decade. Table 20 shows the expected
developments of feed conversion rates over all CEEC. A detailed listing of the feed
conversion rates according to branch and country is found in Table II.4 in Annex II.
Table 20: Feed conversion rates in the CEEC
Feed conversion rates1 Currently Expected in 2010 Change in percent
in beef production 5.5 4.6 -16.3
in egg production 0.8 0.7 -11.7
in milk production 0.5 0.4 -12.9
in pork production 4.3 3.6 -16.0
in poultry production 2.8 2.4 -15.1
Remark: 1 Note that the average value was only calculated for those countries which provided data.
Source: Expert survey.
Feed conversion will be improved in all production systems, which is shown by the negative
sign, by between 10 and 16 percent. This means that less feed will be needed to produce the
same amount of meat. If we compare these growth rates with the perspectives for animal
production (Tables II.1 to II.3), we see that feed conversion rates’ development outperforms
expected production increases (if any), except for poultry production. This strengthens the
argument that overall feed production and consumption will be reduced, except for cereals and
here, as mentioned above, fodder wheat.
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 32

5.3.2 Impact on feed production and use


The above mentioned developments have their consequences for feed use in the CEEC. The
increase in poultry production will result in higher feed use of cereals, especially of wheat.
Wheat use for feed purposes in CEEC is expected to increase by 23 percent from 2000 to
2008 (absolute figures are 9.5 mio tons in 2000 and 11.7 mio tons in 2008), a rate that
outperforms the growth of total internal use which is about 9 percent for the same period
(from 25.7 to 28 mio tons). The feed use of coarse grains will also increase by the high rate of
22.7 percent. Oilseeds are also expected to experience a growth in feed use, whereas feed
potatoes will experience a slight decrease in the next decade (EUROPEAN COMMISSION 1998).
Table 21 shows the experts' ratings for the impact of changes in animal production on feed use
in CEEC (per country ratings can be found in Table II.5 in Annex II). The picture is much less
diversified than in the case of food consumption, which might be an indicator that things are
not about to change so dynamically – or that the development is less clear than in food
consumption.
Table 21: Impact of changes in animal production on feed consumption in CEEC-10
In beef In eggs In milk In pork In poultry
production production production production production
Cereals total 0.7 0.8 0.3 1.1 1.0
Maize 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.9 1.0
Barley 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.3
Wheat 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.5 0.6
Protein feed total 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0
Soyabean 0.7 0.7 0.6 1.0 0.9
cake
Sunflower- 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.5
seed cake
Rapeseed 0.6 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.3
cake
Legumes 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.6
Starchy roots 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
Grassland and pasture 1.0 0.6 1.1 0.0 0.0
Other roughage 1.0 0.6 1.1 0.2 0.0
(clover, lucerne etc.)
Remark: Average of each item is only calculated for countries where data were available. No. of countries
included into the calculation may differ across items.
Source: Own calculations according to expert survey.
Cereals will probably play their most important part in poultry and pork production. Protein
feed will be most affected by the developments both in pork and poultry production.
Especially legumes are expected to experience an increase in beef and milk production,
whereas starchy roots will, according to the survey results, not be affected by the changes in
animal production. Despite the expectation of an intensified milk production and a consequent
shift to cereals and protein, pasture and other roughage will still play a major role in beef and
dairy production. The next section will discuss the impact of technological progress and
market effects on feed use and thus probably explain some of the figures shown above.
Again, as shown in Table 22, the picture seems rather homogeneous, although some highlights
can be seen that shall be discussed hereafter. The depiction of the ratings per country is shown
in Table II.6 in Annex II.
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 33

Table 22: Impact of exogenous factors on feed use


Impact of Ex- Improvements in
changes changes in enlargement pected Farmers' the fee- har- storage
in labour production on feed use price know- quality of ding vesting
costs and techniques beyond those change ledge animal
wages and in covered above products
breeds
Cereals total 0.7 0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.4 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.7
Maize 0.6 0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.7 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5
Barley 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.7
Wheat 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.5
Protein feed total 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.5
Soybean cake 0.4 1.0 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.2 0.5 0.3 0.3
Sunflower-seed 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.2 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.3
cake
Rapeseed cake 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.0 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.3
Legumes 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.7
Starchy roots 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.7 0.1
Grassland and 0.5 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.9 1.1 0.3 0.7 0.9
pasture
Other roughage 0.7 1.0 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.1 0.2 0.9 1.0
(clover, lucerne
etc.)
Source: Expert survey.
Changes in production techniques and new breeds will lead to an increase in the use of
protein feed, especially soybean cake, as well as pasture and roughage. The latter explains
now the continuously high importance of pasture for beef and dairy cattle: New breeds and a
high quality of milk production might require more roughage and more protein feed than the
present breeds.
This results in positive expected price changes for protein feed, especially soybean cake and
legumes. The same holds, although to a little lesser extent, for the category "other roughage".
What else will affect feed use? Improvements in farmers' knowledge will mainly foster the use
of protein feed. Improvements in the quality of animal products will also bring forward the
use of protein feed, but also of pasture and roughage – a sign that product quality and feeding
with fodder that improves animal health and well-being are closely linked together.
Improvements in harvesting will, as expected, especially increase the use of such products
where harvesting plays an important role, that means in particular roughage. The same holds
for storage.
The analysis shows that when looking at technologies that affect feed use, things are more
dynamic than when looking at the production systems (milk, etc.) themselves. Technological
changes will strongly affect feed use, but both analysis steps have shown that – besides a
strong increase in protein feed – traditional feeding systems like pasture or roughage will
maintain their share in overall feeding, and even experience a certain increase. This is also due
to a certain awareness that feeding determines various quality aspects of animal products
required by the consumer, and pasture is certainly seen as healthy both for the animals and for
their consumers.
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 34

REFERENCES
EUROPEAN COMMISSION (1998): Agricultural situation and prospects in the Central European
Countries, various editions.
EUROPEAN COMMISSION (2001): Prospects for agricultural markets 2001-2008.
ESTONIAN STATISTICAL OFFICE (2000): Yearbook Agriculture.
HARTMANN, M. (2001): The dairy sector in the Central European Candidate (CEC) countries – the
status of restructuring and future challenges in: Agrarwirtschaft 50 (2001), No. 6, pp. 342 - 353.
HENZE, A. (1994): Marktforschung: Grundlage für Marketing und Marktpolitik, Stuttgart (Ulmer).
HOUTHAKKER (1950): Revealed preference and the utility function, Economica, XVII (66), May, 159-
74, reprinted in: LANCASTER, K. (1999, ed.): Consumer theory, II. series, pp. 108 – 123.
REISCH, E., ZEDDIES, J. (1992): Einführung in die landwirtschaftliche Betriebslehre. Band 2:
Spezieller Teil, 3. Auflage, Stuttgart (Ulmer).
SAMUELSON, P. (1948): Consumption theory in terms of revealed preference, Economica XV (60),
November, 243-53, reprinted in: LANCASTER, K. (1999, ed.): Consumer theory, II. series, pp. 97 –
107.
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 35

ANNEX I: CONSUMPTION AND FOOD DEMAND ISSUES


Table I.1: Total meat consumption in CEEC-10 during the nineties (in kg p.c.)
Country 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Estonia 60.1 50.2 51.3 47.7 55.7 52.4 59.9 57.6 49
Latvia 65.6 65.3 60.3 56.6 37.1 36.2 35.3 32.8 33.7
Lithuania 63.9 53.4 52.5 51.2 49.3 46.5 49.1 51 45.9
Poland 73.7 73.1 78 76.1 73.4 68.4 69 70.2 65.5 69.1 70.2 69.6
Czech Republic 94.5 78.4 83.6 83.5 79.6 82 79.9 76
Slovakia 77.3 73.3 72.4 72.1 75.5 74 70.9 67.6
Hungary 108.2 100.6 95.4 94.9 86.5 83.3 78.9 74.6 72.3 74.7 75.8 90.3
Slovenia 52.8 86.7 90.8 90.1 91.9 93 89.4 95.9 95.1
Romania 56.2 73.8 65 58.7 57.1 55 53.9 50.5 50 53.9 50.6 47.3
Bulgaria 79.7 81.6 70.5 65.4 62.3 55.9 57.1 56.5 56 65.1 65 63.3
European Union (15) 86.1 87 86.8 86.9 86.2 85.3 85.8 87.3 86.4 90.1 90.4 90.9
Source: FAO Agrostat 2002.
Table I.2: Total beef consumption in CEEC-10 during the nineties (in kg p.c.)
Country 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Estonia 24.5 25.3 20.2 16.2 17.7 14 15.9 14.5 10.6
Latvia 30.4 32.5 30.3 24.7 11.4 11.1 11.3 8.9 9.6
Lithuania 37 39.4 24.9 19.6 19.2 18.6 21.3 17.9 14.4
Poland 17.9 18 17.1 14.1 13 10.3 10.2 10.5 9.8 9.3 9.2 8.4
Czech Republic 20.6 16.9 15.9 15.4 13.3 11 9.7 7.9
Slovakia 16.9 12.5 11.5 11.6 11.9 10.7 10 8.7
Hungary 7.6 6.5 7 6.9 6.7 7 6.4 6 6.1 4.4 3.9 5
Slovenia 17.6 25.7 28.8 26.5 27.8 25.3 20 20.7 24
Romania 10.1 15.9 13 10 9.9 10.7 9 7.7 8 7.2 6.7 7
Bulgaria 15.8 14.6 12.5 15.2 15.9 12.7 10.6 9.7 9.4 10.5 9.7 10.3
European Union (15) 22.5 22.8 23.1 21.9 20.2 19.4 19.9 19.3 19.4 19.3 19.1 19.1
Source: FAO Agrostat 2002.
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 36

Table I.3: Total pig meat consumption in CEEC-10 during the nineties (in kg p.c.)
Country 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Estonia 27.5 19.5 23.2 23.5 25.3 21.2 22.9 29.4 26.4
Latvia 24.9 25.9 24 26.6 20.1 17.8 15.1 16.4 15.8
Lithuania 18.2 7.8 20.9 24.1 21.5 17.4 18.3 23.6 24
Poland 46.6 46.4 51.6 52 50.3 47 48.2 49.2 43 46.4 47.2 47.2
Czech Republic 58.4 46.4 49.5 49.7 44.5 46.8 45.5 42.1
Slovakia 46.8 46.7 46.3 47.2 48 46.1 44.3 41.2
Hungary 78 70.6 67.3 64.1 56.5 51.8 47.3 44 40.8 41.9 42.3 47.6
Slovenia 25 41.4 42.5 37.8 35.1 36.7 36.5 41.4 37.3
Romania 30.8 35 33.1 31.3 28.6 28.4 27.5 26 26.8 29.6 27.7 24.2
Bulgaria 39.2 41.3 39.3 35.2 29.6 28.6 30.8 28.8 27.1 33.1 34.2 31.7
European Union (15) 40.8 40.7 39.7 40.1 41.4 40.4 40.2 41.2 40.6 43.5 44.5 44.2
Source: FAO Agrostat 2002

Table I.4: Total poultry consumption in CEEC-10 during the nineties (in kg p.c.)
Country 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Estonia 6.5 3.7 6.3 7.1 11.7 16.3 20.4 13.2 11.7
Latvia 8.2 5 5.1 4.7 5.3 6.9 8.6 7.3 8
Lithuania 8.1 5.6 6.1 6.8 8 9.8 9 8.2 7
Poland 8.4 7.7 8.2 9.1 9.4 10.6 10.2 10.2 12.5 13.2 13.5 13.6
Czech Republic 11.8 11.4 14.6 14.6 18.1 20 20.5 21.8
Slovakia 11.4 11.9 13.4 12.2 14.5 16.1 15.5 16.7
Hungary 22.1 22.8 20.3 23.1 22.1 22.9 23.8 23.5 24.3 27.1 27.9 36.1
Slovenia 10 19.2 19.2 25.6 28.7 30.6 32.4 33 33.1
Romania 10.9 17.4 14.3 12.7 14.1 11.8 13.5 13.1 11.8 13.9 13 12.9
Bulgaria 17.3 18.7 10 8.4 10 9 9.9 11 12.3 14.8 13.7 14.7
European Union (15) 16.4 17.1 17.5 18.4 18.1 19.1 19.2 20.1 20 20.8 20.3 20.6
Source: FAO Agrostat 2002.
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 37

Table I.5: Total mutton and goat meat consumption in CEEC-10 during the nineties (in kg p.c.)
Country 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Estonia 1.1 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Latvia 1.5 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2
Lithuania 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.9 0.2
Poland 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0 0 0
Czech Republic 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4
Slovakia 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Hungary 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2
Slovenia 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.4
Romania 3.7 4.6 4 4.2 3.8 3.4 3.2 3.1 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.5
Bulgaria 7.3 6.8 8.3 6.2 6.2 5 5.1 6.1 5.7 6 6.5 6
European Union (15) 3.6 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.5
Source: FAO Agrostat 2002.

Table I.6: Total milk consumption in CEEC-10 during the nineties1 (in kg p.c.)
Country 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Estonia 351.8 299.3 288.1 266.3 202.9 188.9 197.5 231 239.8
Latvia 198.6 267.8 226 230.3 200.8 211.6 205.4 198 172.5
Lithuania 148.6 162.4 196.8 148.6 152.9 129 107.8 112.5 181.6
Czech Republic 217.2 195.3 200.5 195.4 184.6 190.1 203.5 190.1
Slovakia 166.3 139.3 136 121.4 126.1 142.3 128.8 203.6
Poland 248.9 234.1 227 213.9 206.6 200.5 194.2 188.9 186.5 197.4 193.6 123.2
Hungary 202.7 177.7 183.6 176.3 171.9 158.9 157 154.2 170.1 174.1 168.8 176.7
Slovenia 198.3 189.4 197.5 205.2 215.7 223 233.8 253.2 222.2
Romania 133.8 99.4 141.1 131.3 176.8 179.8 190.8 195.3 189.6 194 190.4 188.9
Bulgaria 202.5 203.9 173 176 165.5 154.4 156.3 155.9 160.4 170.2 163.5 163.8
European Union (15) 241.5 235.4 239 239.7 232.5 237.2 239.1 241.4 241.4 244.2 246.7 243.5
Remark: 1 Milk excluding butter.
Source: FAO Agrostat 2002.
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 38

Table I.7: Butter consumption in CEEC-10 during the nineties1 (in kg p.c.)
Country 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Estonia 5.2 5.5 5.1 5.2 4.9 4.1 5.6 5.8 6.5
Latvia 5.2 2.8 4.1 4.1 3.8 2.2 1.8 2.1 1.9
Lithuania 7.3 6.8 3.7 3.3 2 2.7 2.4 3.1 2.7
Poland 8.8 7.8 5.7 5.2 4.5 3.9 4 3.9 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.4
Czech Republic 4.9 4.8 4.5 4.2 3.8 4 4.2 4.1
Slovakia 3.3 3.4 3.2 2.8 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7
Hungary 2.4 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.2 1.1 0.9 1
Slovenia 1 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 1 1.9 0.9
Romania 1.2 1.9 1.2 1.3 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3
Bulgaria 3.1 3 1.5 1.2 1 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3
European Union (15) 5.3 4.8 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4
Remark: 1 Butter and ghee.
Source: FAO Agrostat 2002.

Table I.8: Cream consumption in CEEC-10 during the nineties (in kg p.c.)
Country 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Estonia 2.2 2.6 2.3 1.9 1.5 1.9 1.8 1.5 2.2
Latvia 13 6.6 6.6 6.9 7.2 7.4 8.7 7.9 7.1
Lithuania 5.8 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.6 4.9 5.3 4.8 2.1
Poland 8 4.8 4.4 4 3.8 3.5 3 3.4 3.6 3.4 3.5 3.8
Czech Republic 1.9 2 2 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.3
Slovakia 3 2.7 3 3.1 2.9 2.8 3.8 3.6
Hungary 8.4 9.1 7 5.3 5.4 4.9 4 4.8 5.3 4.2 4.4 8.7
Slovenia 4.6 5.1 6.5 7 8.1 7.5 8.1 8.5 10.7
Romania 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Bulgaria 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.1 0.1
European Union (15) 2.7 3 3 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.9 4 4.1 4
Source: FAO Agrostat 2002.
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 39

Table I.9: Cheese consumption in CEEC-10 during the nineties (in kg p.c.)
Country 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Estonia 10.2 9.5 11.4 8.9 7 8.3 7.5 12.8 13.1
Latvia 5.2 3.4 3.3 3 2.6 2.8 2.5 3.7 3.9
Lithuania 4.5 3.3 3.2 3 4.5 5.1 3.9 5.5 5
Czech Republic 10.3 9 9.2 11.3 11.6 12.9 12.9 13.5
Slovakia 5.7 5.6 5.9 5.8 7 8.9 9 9.4
Poland 11.2 9.4 7.7 7.8 8.4 8.9 9.1 10 11.1 11.3 11.6 11.1
Hungary 7.3 6.7 6.7 7 7.5 7.4 7.3 7.2 8.9 8.3 8.4 8.9
Slovenia 6.6 7.6 7.8 8.2 8.6 9.1 9.5 10.5 8.1
Romania 3.6 4 4.1 3.3 2.7 2.6 2.9 2.7 1.9 2.4 1.9 1.8
Bulgaria 20.3 19.1 15.5 12.7 11.3 8.8 8.9 8.5 7.4 7.5 5.4 4.5
European Union (15) 14.2 15 14.5 15 14.8 15 15.2 15.8 16 16.4 16.5 16.7
Source: FAO Agrostat 2002.
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 40

Table I.10 Expected consumption trends for dairy products up to 2010


Liquid Other drinks Yo- Ice- Other Cream Cheese Butter Total
Milk containing milk ghurt cream desserts dairy
ingredients products
ESTONIA
1. Please, assess how the change in consumer preferences will affect 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 -1 1
the demand for the good considered.
2. Please, indicate which influence the following factors contributing to changes in consumer preferences will have on the demand for the good considered.
2.1 increase in health consciousness 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 -1 1
2.2 trendy product 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 -1 1
2.3 increasing level of variety 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1
2.4 change in demographic structure 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2.5 growing relevance of convenience 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2.6 growing importance of environmental consciousness 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2.7 increasing share of out-of-home food consumption 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1
3. Please, assess how the retail price of the good considered will 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
change relative to all other food items.
4. Please, assess how the expected increase in real income per capita 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1
affects the consumption of the good considered.
5. Please, indicate whether for the good considered there is a trend 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1
towards varieties with higher quality.
6. Is there expected to be any change in the consumption of competing 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
food items that will affect the demand of the product considered? If
yes, please, name the food items and indicate the direction of
change for the product considered.
7. What influence can be expected from the integration into the Single 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Market on the demand of the product considered?
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 41

Liquid Other drinks Yo- Ice- Other Cream Cheese Butter Total
Milk containing milk ghurt cream desserts dairy
ingredients products
LATVIA
1. Please, assess how the change in consumer preferences will affect 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1
the demand for the good considered.
2. Please, indicate which influence the following factors contributing to changes in consumer preferences will have on the demand for the good considered.
2.1 increase in health consciousness -1
2.2 trendy product 1
2.3 increasing level of variety 1 1 1 1
2.4 change in demographic structure
2.5 growing relevance of convenience 1
2.6 growing importance of environmental consciousness
2.7 increasing share of out-of-home food consumption 1 1 1 1
3. Please, assess how the retail price of the good considered will 1 1 1
change relative to all other food items.
4. Please, assess how the expected increase in real income per capita 1 1 1 1 1 1
affects the consumption of the good considered.
5. Please, indicate whether for the good considered there is a trend 1 1 1 1 1 1
towards varieties with higher quality.
6. Is there expected to be any change in the consumption of competing marg
food items that will affect the demand of the product considered? If
-1
yes, please, name the food items and indicate the direction of
change for the product considered.
7. What influence can be expected from the integration into the Single 1 1 1 1 1
Market on the demand of the product considered?
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 42

Liquid Other drinks Yo- Ice- Other Cream Cheese Butter Total
Milk containing milk ghurt cream desserts dairy
ingredients products
LITHUANIA
1. Please, assess how the change in consumer preferences will affect 0 1 2 0 1 -1 1 -1 1
the demand for the good considered.
2. Please, indicate which influence the following factors contributing to changes in consumer preferences will have on the demand for the good considered.
2.1 increase in health consciousness 1 0 1 0 0 -1 0 -1 0
2.2 trendy product 0 0 1 0 1 -1 0 -1 0
2.3 increasing level of variety 0 1 1 0 1 -1 1 -1 1
2.4 change in demographic structure 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2.5 growing relevance of convenience 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1
2.6 growing importance of environmental consciousness 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2.7 increasing share of out-of-home food consumption -1 0 1 1 1 -1 1 -1 1
3. Please, assess how the retail price of the good considered will 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
change relative to all other food items.
4. Please, assess how the expected increase in real income per capita 0 1 1 1 1 0 2 0 1
affects the consumption of the good considered.
5. Please, indicate whether for the good considered there is a trend 0 1 2 1 2 0 2 0 1
towards varieties with higher quality.
6. Is there expected to be any change in the consumption of competing 0 juices Other Other 0 Low fat 0 Spreads
food items that will affect the demand of the product considered? If deserts deserts dairy margarin
yes, please, name the food items and indicate the direction of products es
change for the product considered.
7. What influence can be expected from the integration into the Single 0 1 1 0 1 -1 1 -1 1
Market on the demand of the product considered?
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 43

Liquid Other drinks Yo- Ice- Other Cream Cheese Butter Total
Milk containing milk ghurt cream desserts dairy
ingredients products
POLAND
1. Please, assess how the change in consumer preferences will affect 0 1 2 1 2 -1 2 -1 1
the demand for the good considered.
2. Please, indicate which influence the following factors contributing to changes in consumer preferences will have on the demand for the good considered.
2.1 increase in health consciousness 0 1 2 0 2 -12 2 -12 1
2.2 trendy product 0 0 2 1 1 -1 2 -12 0
2.3 increasing level of variety 1 1 2 2 2 1 2 1 2
2.4 change in demographic structure 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0/1
2.5 growing relevance of convenience 0 1 2 0 1 0 1 0 0/1
2.6 growing importance of environmental consciousness 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2.7 increasing share of out-of-home food consumption 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0
3. Please, assess how the retail price of the good considered will 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
change relative to all other food items.
4. Please, assess how the expected increase in real income per capita 0 2 2 1 1 0 2 0 1/2
affects the consumption of the good considered.
5. Please, indicate whether for the good considered there is a trend 1 e.g. 1 2 1 1 0 1 1 1/2
towards varieties with higher quality. toward
UHT
technolog
y
6. Is there expected to be any change in the consumption of competing Vegetabl Meat
food items that will affect the demand of the product considered? If e oils,
1
yes, please, name the food items and indicate the direction of margarin
change for the product considered. es
7. What influence can be expected from the integration into the Single 0 1 2 1 2 0 1 0 1
Market on the demand of the product considered?
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 44

Liquid Other drinks Yo- Ice- Other Cream Cheese Butter Total
Milk containing milk ghurt cream desserts dairy
ingredients products
CZECH REPUBLIC
1. Please, assess how the change in consumer preferences will affect 0 1 2 1 1 1 2 0 1
the demand for the good considered.
2. Please, indicate which influence the following factors contributing to changes in consumer preferences will have on the demand for the good considered.
2.1 increase in health consciousness 0 1 2 0 0 0 2 0 1
2.2 trendy product 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0
2.3 increasing level of variety 0 2 2 1 1 1 1 0 1
2.4 change in demographic structure 0 2 2 1 1 0 2 0 1
2.5 growing relevance of convenience 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2.6 growing importance of environmental consciousness 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2.7 increasing share of out-of-home food consumption 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1
3. Please, assess how the retail price of the good considered will 0 1 1 0 0 0 -1 -1 0
change relative to all other food items.
4. Please, assess how the expected increase in real income per capita 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
affects the consumption of the good considered.
5. Please, indicate whether for the good considered there is a trend 1 1 2 0 0 0 2 0 1
towards varieties with higher quality.
6. Is there expected to be any change in the consumption of competing 0 -1 0 0 -1 0 -1 -1 0
food items that will affect the demand of the product considered? If
juices, confectio meat vegetable
yes, please, name the food items and indicate the direction of
soft ner´s products oils
change for the product considered.
drinks products
7. What influence can be expected from the integration into the Single 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1
Market on the demand of the product considered?
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 45

Liquid Other drinks Yo- Ice- Other Cream Cheese Butter Total
Milk containing milk ghurt cream desserts dairy
ingredients products
SLOVAK REPUBLIC
1. Please, assess how the change in consumer preferences will affect -1 1 2 1 1 0 2 -1 1
the demand for the good considered.
2. Please, indicate which influence the following factors contributing to changes in consumer preferences will have on the demand for the good considered.
2.1 increase in health consciousness 0 0 2 0 0 -1 1 -1 1
2.2 trendy product -1 1 1 1 0 -1 1 -1 1
2.3 increasing level of variety -1 1 1 1 1 0 2 0 1
2.4 change in demographic structure 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0
2.5 growing relevance of convenience 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1
2.6 growing importance of environmental consciousness 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1
2.7 increasing share of out-of-home food consumption -1 1 0 1 1 1 1 -1 1
3. Please, assess how the retail price of the good considered will 0 1 1 0 1 -1 1 -1 1
change relative to all other food items.
4. Please, assess how the expected increase in real income per capita 0 1 1 1 1 0 2 1 2
affects the consumption of the good considered.
5. Please, indicate whether for the good considered there is a trend 1 1 2 1 1 0 2 0 1
towards varieties with higher quality.
6. Is there expected to be any change in the consumption of competing Soft Soft 0 0 Cakes 0 meat other fats Bever-
food items that will affect the demand of the product considered? If drinks, drinks, and ages
-1 -1
yes, please, name the food items and indicate the direction of -1 pastry,
-1 -1
change for the product considered. -1
7. What influence can be expected from the integration into the Single -1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1
Market on the demand of the product considered?
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 46

Liquid Other drinks Yo- Ice- Other Cream Cheese Butter Total
Milk containing milk ghurt cream desserts dairy
ingredients products
HUNGARY
1. Please, assess how the change in consumer preferences will affect 1 1 1 2 2 0 1 1 1
the demand for the good considered.
2. Please, indicate which influence the following factors contributing to changes in consumer preferences will have on the demand for the good considered.
2.1 increase in health consciousness 1 0 1 0 -1 -1 2 0 2
2.2 trendy product 0 1 0 1 1 -1 0 0 0
2.3 increasing level of variety 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1
2.4 change in demographic structure -1 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 0 -1 0
2.5 growing relevance of convenience 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 -1 0
2.6 growing importance of environmental consciousness 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2.7 increasing share of out-of-home food consumption -1 0 0 1 1 0 0 -1 0
3. Please, assess how the retail price of the good considered will 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1
change relative to all other food items.
4. Please, assess how the expected increase in real income per capita 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1
affects the consumption of the good considered.
5. Please, indicate whether for the good considered there is a trend 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1
towards varieties with higher quality.
6. Is there expected to be any change in the consumption of competing 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
food items that will affect the demand of the product considered? If
yes, please, name the food items and indicate the direction of
change for the product considered.
7. What influence can be expected from the integration into the Single -1 1 1 0 0 0 2 0 2
Market on the demand of the product considered?
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 47

Liquid Other drinks Yo- Ice- Other Cream Cheese Butter Total
Milk containing milk ghurt cream desserts dairy
ingredients products
SLOVENIA
1. Please, assess how the change in consumer preferences will affect 1 1 1 1 0 1 2 0 1
the demand for the good considered.
2. Please, indicate which influence the following factors contributing to changes in consumer preferences will have on the demand for the good considered.
2.1 increase in health consciousness 1 1 1 1 0 1 2 -1 1
2.2 trendy product 1 1 1 1 0 1 2 -1 1
2.3 increasing level of variety 1 1 1 1 0 1 2 0 1
2.4 change in demographic structure 1 1 1 1 0 1 2 0 1
2.5 growing relevance of convenience 1 1 1 1 0 1 2 0 1
2.6 growing importance of environmental consciousness 1 1 1 1 0 1 2 0 1
2.7 increasing share of out-of-home food consumption 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1
3. Please, assess how the retail price of the good considered will -1 -1 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 0
change relative to all other food items.
4. Please, assess how the expected increase in real income per capita 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 01
affects the consumption of the good considered.
5. Please, indicate whether for the good considered there is a trend 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
towards varieties with higher quality.
6. Is there expected to be any change in the consumption of competing 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
food items that will affect the demand of the product considered? If
yes, please, name the food items and indicate the direction of
change for the product considered.

7. What influence can be expected from the integration into the Single 01 01 1 0 0 0 01 0 -1 01
Market on the demand of the product considered?
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 48

Liquid Other drinks Yo- Ice- Other Cream Cheese Butter Total
Milk containing milk ghurt cream desserts dairy
ingredients products
ROMANIA
1. Please, assess how the change in consumer preferences will affect 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1
the demand for the good considered.
2. Please, indicate which influence the following factors contributing to changes in consumer preferences will have on the demand for the good considered.
2.1 Increase in health consciousness 1 0 1 -1 0 0 0 1 1
2.2 trendy product 2 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1
2.3 Increasing level of variety 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 1
2.4 change in demographic structure 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
2.5 Growing relevance of convenience 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0
2.6 Growing importance of environmental consciousness 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1
2.7 Increasing share of out-of-home food consumption 1 2 1 0 2 0 1 0 1
3. Please, assess how the retail price of the good considered would 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
change relative to all other food items.
4. Please, assess how the expected increase in real income per capita 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 1
affects the consumption of the good considered.
5. Please, indicate whether for the good considered there is a trend 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 1
towards varieties with higher quality.
6. Is there expected to be any change in the consumption of competing 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1
food items that will affect the demand of the product considered? If
yes, please, name the food items and indicate the direction of
change for the product considered.
7. What influence can be expected from the integration into the Single 1 2 1 2 2 2 2 1 1
Market on the demand of the product considered?
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 49

Liquid Other drinks Yo- Ice- Other Cream Cheese Butter Total
Milk containing milk ghurt cream desserts dairy
ingredients products
BULGARIA
1. Please, assess how the change in consumer preferences will affect 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 -1 0
the demand for the good considered.
2. Please, indicate which influence the following factors contributing to changes in consumer preferences will have on the demand for the good considered.
2.1 increase in health consciousness 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 -1 0
2.2 trendy product 0 1 0 0 2 1 1 0 1
2.3 increasing level of variety 1 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 1
2.4 change in demographic structure 0 -1 0 -12 -1 0 0 -12 0
2.5 growing relevance of convenience 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2
2.6 growing importance of environmental consciousness 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2.7 increasing share of out-of-home food consumption -1 1 0 1 2 1 2 0 1
3. Please, assess how the retail price of the good considered will 0 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 1 1 0
change relative to all other food items.
4. Please, assess how the expected increase in real income per capita 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 0 2
affects the consumption of the good considered.
5. Please, indicate whether for the good considered there is a trend 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 1 2
towards varieties with higher quality.
6. Is there expected to be any change in the consumption of Yes,
competing food items that will affect the demand of the product Decreased consumption of butter and increased consumption of margarine.
considered? If yes, please, name the food items and indicate the Decreased consumption of other drinks containing milk ingredients and increased consumption
direction of change for the product considered. of fruit juices
7. What influence can be expected from the integration into the Single 0 1 -1 1 1 1 1 -1 0
Market on the demand of the product considered?
Source: Experts' ratings.
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 50

Table I.11: Expected consumption trends for livestock products up to 2010


Beef Veal Pigmeat Mut- Poultry meat Meat total
ton
high low meat prod- high low meat prod- breast other meat products meat meat Offal
and
quality quality ucts con- quality qual- ucts contain- meat poultry containing products (e.g.
cuts cuts taining pri- cuts ity ing primarily goat meat primarily (e.g. sau- liver,
marily beef cuts pigmeat meat poultry meat sages, kidneys)
ham)

ESTONIA
1. Please, assess how the expected total 1 -1 0 1 1 -12 -1 0 1 1 -12 1 0 0
preference adjustments will change the
demand for the good considered.
2. Please, indicate which influence the following factors will have on the expected preference change.
2.1 increase in health consciousness 1 -1 0 1 1 -1 0 0 1 0 -1 1 0 0
2.2 trendy product 10 -1 1 1 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
2.3 increasing level of variety 0 0 1 0 0 -1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0
2.4 change in demographic structure 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2.5 growing relevance of convenience 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2.6 growing importance of environmental 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
consciousness
2.7 increasing share of off-1home food 1 -1 0 1 1 -1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 -1
consumption
2.8 increasing relevance of advertisement for 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
competing products (e.g. liquid milk vs.
soft drinks)
3. Please, assess how the retail price of the -1 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 -1 0 0 -1 0 0
good considered will change relative to all
other food items.
4. Please, assess how the expected increase in 1 -1 0 1 1 -1 0 0 1 0 -1 1 0 0
real income per capita affects the
consumption of the good considered.
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 51

Beef Veal Pigmeat Mut- Poultry meat Meat total


ton
high low meat prod- high low meat prod- breast other meat products meat meat Offal
and
quality quality ucts con- quality qual- ucts contain- meat poultry containing products (e.g.
cuts cuts taining pri- cuts ity ing primarily goat meat primarily (e.g. sau- liver,
marily beef cuts pigmeat meat poultry meat sages, kidneys)
ham)

5. Please, indicate whether for the good 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


considered there is a trend towards varieties
with higher quality.
6. Is there expected to be any change in the 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
consumption of competing food items that
will affect the demand of the product
considered? If yes, please, name the food
items and indicate the direction of change for
the product considered.
7. What influence can be expected from the 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 -1 1 0 0
integration into the Single Market on the
demand of the product considered?
LATVIA
1. Please, assess how the expected total 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 1
preference adjustments will change the
demand for the good considered.
2. Please, indicate which influence the following factors will have on the expected preference change.
2.1 increase in health consciousness 1 1 1
2.2 trendy product
2.3 increasing level of variety
2.4 change in demographic structure
2.5 growing relevance of convenience
2.6 growing importance of environmental
consciousness
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 52

Beef Veal Pigmeat Mut- Poultry meat Meat total


ton
high low meat prod- high low meat prod- breast other meat products meat meat Offal
and
quality quality ucts con- quality qual- ucts contain- meat poultry containing products (e.g.
cuts cuts taining pri- cuts ity ing primarily goat meat primarily (e.g. sau- liver,
marily beef cuts pigmeat meat poultry meat sages, kidneys)
ham)

2.7 increasing share of off-1home food 1 1 1 1


consumption
2.8 increasing relevance of advertisement for
competing products (e.g. liquid milk vs.
soft drinks)
3. Please, assess how the retail price of the 1 1 1 -1
good considered will change relative to all
other food items.
4. Please, assess how the expected increase in 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
real income per capita affects the
consumption of the good considered.
5. Please, indicate whether for the good Yes Yes Yes Yes
considered there is a trend towards varieties
with higher quality.
6. Is there expected to be any change in the
consumption of competing food items that
will affect the demand of the product
considered? If yes, please, name the food
items and indicate the direction of change for
the product considered.
7. What influence can be expected from the -1
integration into the Single Market on the
demand of the product considered?
LITHUANIA
1. Please, assess how the expected total 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 -1
preference adjustments will change the
demand for the good considered.
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 53

Beef Veal Pigmeat Mut- Poultry meat Meat total


ton
high low meat prod- high low meat prod- breast other meat products meat meat Offal
and
quality quality ucts con- quality qual- ucts contain- meat poultry containing products (e.g.
cuts cuts taining pri- cuts ity ing primarily goat meat primarily (e.g. sau- liver,
marily beef cuts pigmeat meat poultry meat sages, kidneys)
ham)

2. Please, indicate which influence the following factors will have on the expected preference change.
2.1 increase in health consciousness 0 0 0 1 -1 -1 -1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0
2.2 trendy product 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0
2.3 increasing level of variety 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0
2.4 change in demographic structure 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2.5 growing relevance of convenience 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2.6 growing importance of environmental 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
consciousness
2.7 increasing share of off-1home food 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0
consumption
2.8 increasing relevance of advertisement for 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
competing products (e.g. liquid milk vs.
soft drinks)
3. Please, assess how the retail price of the 1 0 0 1 -1 0 0 1 1 -1 0 1 1 1
good considered will change relative to all
other food items.
4. Please, assess how the expected increase in 1 -1 1 1 1 -1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 -1
real income per capita affects the
consumption of the good considered.
5. Please, indicate whether for the good 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0
considered there is a trend towards varieties
with higher quality.
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 54

Beef Veal Pigmeat Mut- Poultry meat Meat total


ton
high low meat prod- high low meat prod- breast other meat products meat meat Offal
and
quality quality ucts con- quality qual- ucts contain- meat poultry containing products (e.g.
cuts cuts taining pri- cuts ity ing primarily goat meat primarily (e.g. sau- liver,
marily beef cuts pigmeat meat poultry meat sages, kidneys)
ham)

6. Is there expected to be any change in the -1 -1 -1 -1 -1


consumption of competing food items that
veal poultry Veal, veal fish
will affect the demand of the product
poultry
considered? If yes, please, name the food
items and indicate the direction of change for
the product considered.
7. What influence can be expected from the 1 -1 1 2 1 0 0 2 1 0 1 1 1 -1
integration into the Single Market on the
demand of the product considered?
POLAND
1
1. Please, assess how the expected total 1 0 -1 0 0 -1 0 1 2 1 1 0 0 -1
preference adjustments will change the
demand for the good considered.
2. Please, indicate which influence the following factors will have on the expected preference change.
2 2 2
2.1 increase in health consciousness 1 1 -1 -1 1 2 2 2 -1 0 -12
2.2 trendy product 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 -1
2.3 increasing level of variety 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 -1
2.4 change in demographic structure 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2.5 growing relevance of convenience 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0
2.6 growing importance of environmental 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 0 0
consciousness

1
Assumed that BSE will be under control and consumer confidence will recover
2
Depends how the BSE control and consumer confidence EU-15 wide will develop
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 55

Beef Veal Pigmeat Mut- Poultry meat Meat total


ton
high low meat prod- high low meat prod- breast other meat products meat meat Offal
and
quality quality ucts con- quality qual- ucts contain- meat poultry containing products (e.g.
cuts cuts taining pri- cuts ity ing primarily goat meat primarily (e.g. sau- liver,
marily beef cuts pigmeat meat poultry meat sages, kidneys)
ham)

2.7 increasing share of off-1home food 1 1 1 -1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 -1 0


consumption
2.8 increasing relevance of advertisement for 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
competing products (e.g. liquid milk vs.
soft drinks)
3. Please, assess how the retail price of the 2 1 1 1 0 -1 0 0 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0
good considered will change relative to all
other food items.
4. Please, assess how the expected increase in 1 0 0 1 1 -1 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 -1
real income per capita affects the
consumption of the good considered.
5. Please, indicate whether for the good 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 -1
considered there is a trend towards varieties
with higher quality.
6. Is there expected to be any change in the Poultry Poultry Poultry no Poultry Poultry Poultry Beef Beef Beef Beef Milk Milk Milk
consumption of competing food items that 1 and and and pro- pro- pro-
-1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1
will affect the demand of the product pork pork pork ducts ducts ducts
considered? If yes, please, name the food
1 1 1 -1 -1 -1
items and indicate the direction of change for
the product considered.
7. What influence can be expected from the 1 : if 1 : if 0 -1 0 -1 0 1 1 1 1 0/1 0 -1
integration into the Single Market on the BSE BSE
demand of the product considered? will be will be
solved solved
-1: if –1: if
not not
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 56

Beef Veal Pigmeat Mut- Poultry meat Meat total


ton
high low meat prod- high low meat prod- breast other meat products meat meat Offal
and
quality quality ucts con- quality qual- ucts contain- meat poultry containing products (e.g.
cuts cuts taining pri- cuts ity ing primarily goat meat primarily (e.g. sau- liver,
marily beef cuts pigmeat meat poultry meat sages, kidneys)
ham)

CZECH REPUBLIC
1. Please, assess how the expected total 0 -1 -1 0 1 0 1 0 2 2 2 1 1 1
preference adjustments will change the
demand for the good considered.
2. Please, indicate which influence the following factors will have on the expected preference change.
2.1 increase in health consciousness 0 -1 -1 0 1 -1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0
2.2 trendy product 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0
2.3 increasing level of variety 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0
2.4 change in demographic structure 0 -1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1
2.5 growing relevance of convenience 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2.6 growing importance of environmental 1 1 1 0 0 -1 0 0 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0
consciousness
2.7 increasing share of off-1home food 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 2 1 1 1 1 1
consumption
2.8 increasing relevance of advertisement for
competing products (e.g. liquid milk vs.
soft drinks)
3. Please, assess how the retail price of the 1 0 1 0 1 -1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0
good considered will change relative to all
other food items.
4. Please, assess how the expected increase in 1 0 01 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0
real income per capita affects the
consumption of the good considered.
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 57

Beef Veal Pigmeat Mut- Poultry meat Meat total


ton
high low meat prod- high low meat prod- breast other meat products meat meat Offal
and
quality quality ucts con- quality qual- ucts contain- meat poultry containing products (e.g.
cuts cuts taining pri- cuts ity ing primarily goat meat primarily (e.g. sau- liver,
marily beef cuts pigmeat meat poultry meat sages, kidneys)
ham)

5. Please, indicate whether for the good 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0


considered there is a trend towards varieties
with higher quality.
6. Is there expected to be any change in the -1 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
consumption of competing food items that
poultry smoked pork poultry smoked poultry
will affect the demand of the product con-
breast goods smoked goods smoked
sidered? If yes, please, name the food items breast
meat goods goods -
and indicate the direction of change for the meat
1
product considered.
7. What influence can be expected from the 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0
integration into the Single Market on the
demand of the product considered?
SLOVAK REPUBLIC
1. Please, assess how the expected total 1 -1 -1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 -1
preference adjustments will change the
demand for the good considered.
2. Please, indicate which influence the following factors will have on the expected preference change.
2.1 increase in health consciousness 0 -1 -1 0 1 -1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 -1
2.2 trendy product -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 -1
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 58

Beef Veal Pigmeat Mut- Poultry meat Meat total


ton
high low meat prod- high low meat prod- breast other meat products meat meat Offal
and
quality quality ucts con- quality qual- ucts contain- meat poultry containing products (e.g.
cuts cuts taining pri- cuts ity ing primarily goat meat primarily (e.g. sau- liver,
marily beef cuts pigmeat meat poultry meat sages, kidneys)
ham)

2.3 increasing level of variety 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0


2.4 change in demographic structure 0 -1 -1 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1
2.5 growing relevance of convenience 1 -1 0 1 1 -1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 -1
2.6 growing importance of environmental 1 0 1 1 1 -1 -1 2 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0
consciousness
2.7 increasing share of off-1home food 1 -1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 -1
consumption
2.8 increasing relevance of advertisement for -1 -1 -1 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1
competing products (e.g. liquid milk vs.
soft drinks)
3. Please, assess how the retail price of the 1 -12 1 1 0 -1 0 0 0 -1 -1 1 0 -1
good considered will change relative to all
other food items.
4. Please, assess how the expected increase in 1 -1 0 1 1 -1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 -1
real income per capita affects the
consumption of the good considered.
5. Please, indicate whether for the good 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0
considered there is a trend towards varieties
with higher quality.
6. Is there expected to be any change in the milk milk milk milk milk milk milk 0 beef, beef, beef, milk milk milk
consumption of competing food items that prod., prod., prod., prod., prod., prod., prod., pork pork pork prod., prod., prod., -
will affect the demand of the product pork, pork, pork, pork, poultry poultry poultry -1 -1 1
1 1 1
considered? If yes, please, name the food poultry poultry poultry poultry
-1 -1 -1
items and indicate the direction of change for
-1 -1 -1 -1
the product considered.
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 59

Beef Veal Pigmeat Mut- Poultry meat Meat total


ton
high low meat prod- high low meat prod- breast other meat products meat meat Offal
and
quality quality ucts con- quality qual- ucts contain- meat poultry containing products (e.g.
cuts cuts taining pri- cuts ity ing primarily goat meat primarily (e.g. sau- liver,
marily beef cuts pigmeat meat poultry meat sages, kidneys)
ham)

7. What influence can be expected from the 1 -1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0


integration into the Single Market on the
demand of the product considered?
HUNGARY
1. Please, assess how the expected total 0 0 1 1 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0
preference adjustments will change the
demand for the good considered.
2. Please, indicate which influence the following factors will have on the expected preference change.
2.1 increase in health consciousness 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
2.2 trendy product -1 -12 -1 0 0 -1 -1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1
2.3 increasing level of variety 1 -1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0
2.4 change in demographic structure -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1
2.5 growing relevance of convenience -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1
2.6 growing importance of environmental 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
consciousness
2.7 increasing share of off-1home food 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1
consumption
2.8 increasing relevance of advertisement for 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
competing products (e.g. liquid milk vs.
soft drinks)
3. Please, assess how the retail price of the 0 -1 0 1 1 0 0 1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 1
good considered will change relative to all
other food items.
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 60

Beef Veal Pigmeat Mut- Poultry meat Meat total


ton
high low meat prod- high low meat prod- breast other meat products meat meat Offal
and
quality quality ucts con- quality qual- ucts contain- meat poultry containing products (e.g.
cuts cuts taining pri- cuts ity ing primarily goat meat primarily (e.g. sau- liver,
marily beef cuts pigmeat meat poultry meat sages, kidneys)
ham)

4. Please, assess how the expected increase in 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0


real income per capita affects the
consumption of the good considered.
5. Please, indicate whether for the good 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0
considered there is a trend towards varieties
with higher quality.
6. Is there expected to be any change in the increase of pork 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
consumption of competing food items that
will affect the demand of the product
considered? If yes, please, name the food
items and indicate the direction of change for
the product considered.
7. What influence can be expected from the 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0
integration into the Single Market on the
demand of the product considered?
SLOVENIA
1. Please, assess how the expected total 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0
preference adjustments will change the
demand for the good considered.
2. Please, indicate which influence the following factors will have on the expected preference change.
2.1 increase in health consciousness
2.2 trendy product
2.3 increasing level of variety
2.4 change in demographic structure
2.5 growing relevance of convenience
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 61

Beef Veal Pigmeat Mut- Poultry meat Meat total


ton
high low meat prod- high low meat prod- breast other meat products meat meat Offal
and
quality quality ucts con- quality qual- ucts contain- meat poultry containing products (e.g.
cuts cuts taining pri- cuts ity ing primarily goat meat primarily (e.g. sau- liver,
marily beef cuts pigmeat meat poultry meat sages, kidneys)
ham)

2.6 growing importance of environmental


consciousness
2.7 increasing share of off-1home food
consumption
2.8 increasing relevance of advertisement for
competing products (e.g. liquid milk vs.
soft drinks)
3. Please, assess how the retail price of the 01 0 0 1 01 0 0 1 0 0 0 01 0 0
good considered will change relative to all
other food items.
4. Please, assess how the expected increase in 1 0 0 2 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0
real income per capita affects the
consumption of the good considered.
5. Please, indicate whether for the good 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
considered there is a trend towards varieties
with higher quality.
6. Is there expected to be any change in the
consumption of competing food items that
will affect the demand of the product
considered? If yes, please, name the food
items and indicate the direction of change for
the product considered.
7. What influence can be expected from the 01 0 0 01 01 0 0 1 01 0 0 01 0 0
integration into the Single Market on the
demand of the product considered?
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 62

Beef Veal Pigmeat Mut- Poultry meat Meat total


ton
high low meat prod- high low meat prod- breast other meat products meat meat Offal
and
quality quality ucts con- quality qual- ucts contain- meat poultry containing products (e.g.
cuts cuts taining pri- cuts ity ing primarily goat meat primarily (e.g. sau- liver,
marily beef cuts pigmeat meat poultry meat sages, kidneys)
ham)

ROMANIA
1. Please, assess how the expected total 1 0 1 1 2 -1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1
preference adjustments will change the
demand for the good considered.
2. Please, indicate which influence the following factors will have on the expected preference change.
2.1 increase in health consciousness 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0
2.2 trendy product 1 0 1 1 2 0 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 1
2.3 increasing level of variety 1 0 1 1 2 0 2 0 1 1 1 2 2 1
2.4 change in demographic structure 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0
2.5 growing relevance of convenience 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 0 2 1 1 1 2 1
2.6 growing importance of environmental 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
consciousness
2.7 increasing share of off-1home food 1 -1 1 1 2 -1 2 1 2 2 0 2 2 2
consumption
2.8 increasing relevance of advertisement for 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
competing products (e.g. liquid milk vs.
soft drinks)
3. Please, assess how the retail price of the 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 -1 -1 -1 1 1 1
good considered would change relative to all
other food items.
4. Please, assess how the expected increase in 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 0 2 2 2 2 2 2
real income per capita affects the
consumption of the good considered.
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 63

Beef Veal Pigmeat Mut- Poultry meat Meat total


ton
high low meat prod- high low meat prod- breast other meat products meat meat Offal
and
quality quality ucts con- quality qual- ucts contain- meat poultry containing products (e.g.
cuts cuts taining pri- cuts ity ing primarily goat meat primarily (e.g. sau- liver,
marily beef cuts pigmeat meat poultry meat sages, kidneys)
ham)

5. Please, indicate whether for the good 1 0 1 1 2 0 2 0 2 1 2 2 1 1


considered there is a trend towards varieties
with higher quality.
6. Is there expected to be any change in the 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 0 2 1 1 2 2 1
consumption of competing food items that
will affect the demand of the product
considered? If yes, please, name the food
items and indicate the direction of change for
the product considered.
7. What influence can be expected from the 1 0 1 2 2 0 2 1 2 2 1 2 1 1
integration into the Single Market on the
demand of the product considered?
BULGARIA
1. Please, assess how the expected total 0 0 0 0 1 -1 -1 0 1 1 1 0 0 -1
preference adjustments will change the
demand for the good considered.
2. Please, indicate which influence the following factors will have on the expected preference change.
2.1 increase in health consciousness -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 1 0 0 0 -1 -1
2.2 trendy product 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 -1 -1
2.3 increasing level of variety 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 2 0
2.4 change in demographic structure -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 1 -1 1 0 -1 -1 0
2.5 growing relevance of convenience 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 2 1 0 1 0
2.6 growing importance of environmental 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
consciousness
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 64

Beef Veal Pigmeat Mut- Poultry meat Meat total


ton
high low meat prod- high low meat prod- breast other meat products meat meat Offal
and
quality quality ucts con- quality qual- ucts contain- meat poultry containing products (e.g.
cuts cuts taining pri- cuts ity ing primarily goat meat primarily (e.g. sau- liver,
marily beef cuts pigmeat meat poultry meat sages, kidneys)
ham)

2.7 increasing share of off-1home food 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 2 2 0 1 1 0


consumption
2.8 increasing relevance of advertisement for 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0
competing products (e.g. liquid milk vs.
soft drinks)
3. Please, assess how the retail price of the 1 -1 -1 1 1 -1 0 0 -1 -1 -1 1 -1 0
good considered will change relative to all
other food items.
4. Please, assess how the expected increase in 1 1 1 2 2 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 1 -1
real income per capita affects the
consumption of the good considered.
5. Please, indicate whether for the good 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 0
considered there is a trend towards varieties
with higher quality.
6. Is there expected to be any change in the Yes, substitution within meats
consumption of competing food items that
More pork than veal
will affect the demand of the product
considered? If yes, please, name the food More poultry than pork
items and indicate the direction of change for
the product considered.
7. What influence can be expected from the 1 1 1 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 1 1 1 1 1 0
integration into the Single Market on the
demand of the product considered?
Source: Experts' ratings.
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 65

ANNEX II: ANIMAL PRODUCTION AND FEED-USE


Table II.1: Pig and poultry production perspectives
Pork Production (1000 t) Poultry Production (1000 t)
Year 2000 2008 2008 in % of 2000 2008 2008 in % of
2000 2000
Estonia 30 26 87 7 8 114
Latvia 42 40 95 7 13 186
Lithuania 80 80 100 25 23 92
Poland 1935 2254 116 580 735 127
Czech Republic 421 443 105 209 231 111
Slovakia 164 168 102 85 115 135
Hungary 701 725 103 410 485 118
Slovenia 66 70 106 54 54 100
Romania 502 616 123 253 329 130
Bulgaria 239 213 89 107 130 121
CEEC-10 TOTAL 4180 4634 111 1737 2123 122
Source: European Commission 2001, Estonian Statistical Office, Yearbook Agriculture 2000.
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 66

Table II.2: Beef and veal production


Year 2000 2008 2008 in % of 2000
Estonia 15 17 113
Latvia 23 22 96
Lithuania 75 52 69
Poland 404 348 86
Czech Republic 116 99 85
Slovak Republic 48 45 94
Hungary 62 53 85
Slovenia 50 48 96
Romania 162 142 88
Bulgaria 68 59 87
CEEC-10 total 1023 884 86
Source: European Commission 2001, Estonian Statistical Office, Yearbook Agriculture 2000.

Table II.3: Dairy cows and milk production


Dairy Cows (1000) Yield (kg/cow) Production (1000 t)
Year 2000 2008 2008 in % 2000 2008 2008 in % 2000 2008 2008 in %
Country of 2000 of 2000 of 2000
Estonia 131 142 108 4660 4370 94 629 619 100
Latvia 206 201 98 3800 4323 114 781 867 111
Lithuania 438 378 86 3184 3584 113 1485 1356 91
Poland 3047 2620 86 3772 4120 109 11494 10794 94
Czech Republic 519 442 85 5345 6065 113 2670 2611 98
Slovak Republic 246 195 79 4467 5700 128 1099 1112 101
Hungary 399 351 88 5200 5880 113 2075 2062 99
Slovenia 186 160 86 3311 3631 110 615 580 94
Romania 1633 1393 85 3063 3463 113 5002 4824 96
Bulgaria 434 401 92 3198 3358 105 1488 1428 96
CEEC-10 total 7261 6282 87 3764 4179 111 27330 26251 96
Source: European Commission 2001, Estonian Statistical Office, Yearbook Agriculture 2000.
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 67

Table II.4: Feed conversion rates


in beef production In egg production in milk production
Country currently Expected in Change in currently Expected in Change in currently Expected in Change in
2010 percent 2010 percent 2010 percent
Estonia 1.40 2.10 50 0.12 0.11 -8 0.31 0.35 13
Latvia n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Lithuania 11.80 9.44 -20 n.a. n.a. n.a. 1.07 0.86 -20
Poland n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Czech Republic 1.51 1.40 -7 1.92 1.89 -2 0.18 0.18 0
Slovak Republic 2.70 2.50 -7 0.16 0.15 -6 0.30 0.25 -17
Hungary n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Slovenia n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Romania 10.00 7.50 -25 0.95 0.63 -34 0.50 0.40 -20
Bulgaria n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.50 0.45 -10
Average 5.48 4.59 -16 0.79 0.69 -12 0.48 0.42 -13
in pork production in poultry production
Country currently Expected in 2010 Change in percent currently Expected in 2010 Change in percent
Cz 2.05 1.98 -3 1.17 1.12 -4
Bg 4.00 3.00 -25 2.60 2.00 -23
Hu n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Pl n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Ro 4.50 3.50 -22 2.75 2.00 -27
Sk 3.50 3.20 -9 2.70 2.30 -15
Sl n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Lat n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Lit 5.20 4.48 -14 n.a. n.a. n.a.
Est 6.30 5.30 -16 4.70 4.40 -6
Average 4.26 3.58 -16 2.78 2.36 -15
Source: Country experts.
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 68

Table II.5: Impact of changes in animal production on feed consumption per country
Country Cereals Maize Barley Wheat Protein Soybean Sunflower Rapeseed Legumes Starchy Grassland Other
total feed total cake -seed cake cake roots and roughage
pasture (clover.
lucerne
etc.)
in beef production
Est 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Lat n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Lit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0
Pl 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 -1.0 2.0 1.0
Cz 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0
Sk 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0
Hu 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0
Slo 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Ro 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 2.0
Bg 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 -1.0 1.0
Average 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.1 1.0 1.0
in eggs production
Est 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Lat n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Lit n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Pl 1.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 n.a. n.a. n.a.
Cz 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Sk 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Hu 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Slo 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 n.a. 0.0 0.0
Ro 1.0 1.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Bg 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Average 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.1 0.6 0.6
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 69

Country Cereals Maize Barley Wheat Protein Soybean Sunflower Rapeseed Legumes Starchy Grassland Other
total feed total cake -seed cake cake roots and roughage
pasture (clover.
lucerne
etc.)
in milk production
Est 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0
Lat n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Lit -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0
Pl 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 -1.0 2.0 1.0
Cz 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 1.0
Sk 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0
Hu 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0
Slo 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Ro 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 2.0
Bg -1.0 -1.0 1.0 -1.0 0.0 -1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 -1.0 1.0
Average 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.1 1.1 1.1
in pork production
Est 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Lat n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Lit n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Pl 1.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 -2.0 n.a. n.a.
Cz 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Sk 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0
Hu 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Slo 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 n.a. 0.0 1.0
Ro 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0
Bg 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 n.a n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Average 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.5 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.2
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 70

Country Cereals Maize Barley Wheat Protein Soybean Sunflower Rapeseed Legumes Starchy Grassland Other
total feed total cake -seed cake cake roots and roughage
pasture (clover.
lucerne
etc.)
in poultry production
Est 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Lat n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Lit n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Pl 1.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 n.a. n.a. n.a.
Cz 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0
Sk 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
Hu 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Slo 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 n.a. 0.0 0.0
Ro 1.0 1.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Bg 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 n.a. 1.0 1.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Average 1.0 1.0 0.3 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Source: Country experts.
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 71

Table II.6: Impact of exogenous factors on feed use per country


Country Cereals Maize Barley Wheat Protein Soybean Sunflowersee Rapeseed Legumes Starchy Grassland Other
total feed total cake d cake cake roots and roughage
pasture (clover,
lucerne
etc.)
Changes in labour costs and wages
Est 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0
Lat n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Lit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Pl 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2.0 n.a. n.a.
Cz 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0
Sk 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Hu 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
Slo n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Ro 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Bg n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Average 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.5 0.7
Changes in production techniques and in breeds
Est 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0
Lat n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Lit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.0 1.0 1.0
Pl 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 -2.0 1.0 1.0
Cz 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0
Sk -1.0 0.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 1.0
HU 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0
Slo n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Ro 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Bg n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Average 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.8 -0.1 1.1 1.0
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 72

Country Cereals Maize Barley Wheat Protein Soybean Sunflowersee Rapeseed Legumes Starchy Grassland Other
total feed total cake d cake cake roots and roughage
pasture (clover,
lucerne
etc.)
Enlargement on feed use beyond those covered above
Est 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Lat n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Lit n.a. -1.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. -1.0 n.a. 1.0 n.a. n.a. 1.0 n.a.
Pl n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Cz 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Sk 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0
Hu n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Slo n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Ro 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 1.0
Bg n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Average 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.0 0.8 0.5
How will the price change?
Est 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0
Lat n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Lit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Pl -1.0 -1.0 0.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Cz 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0
Sk 0.0 1.0 -1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 -1.0 -1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0
Hu 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Slo n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Ro 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
Bg n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Average -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.6
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 73

Country Cereals Maize Barley Wheat Protein Soybean Sunflowersee Rapeseed Legumes Starchy Grassland Other
total feed total cake d cake cake roots and roughage
pasture (clover,
lucerne
etc.)
Improvements in farmers' knowledge
Est 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Lat n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Lit -1.0 n.a. n.a. 1.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.0 1.0 0.0
Pl 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0
Cz 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Sk 1.0 1.0 -1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0
Hu 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 1.0
Slo n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Ro 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
Bg n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Average 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.3 0.9 0.7
Improvements in the quality of animal products
Est 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0
Lat n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Lit -1.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. 1.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 1.0 1.0 1.0
Pl 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 -2.0 1.0 1.0
Cz 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Sk 1.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 2.0
Hu 0.0 -1.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 -2.0 1.0 1.0
Slo n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Ro 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0
Bg n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Average 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.2 0.8 0.8 1.0 -0.3 1.1 1.1
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 74

Country Cereals Maize Barley Wheat Protein Soybean Sunflowersee Rapeseed Legumes Starchy Grassland Other
total feed total cake d cake cake roots and roughage
pasture (clover,
lucerne
etc.)
Improvements in feeding
Est 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0
Lat n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Lit 1.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. 1.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. -1.0 -1.0 -1.0
Pl 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 n.a. n.a. n.a.
Cz 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0
Sk -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0
Hu 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Slo n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Ro 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Bg n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Average 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.0 0.3 0.2
Improvements in harvesting
Est 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0
Lat n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Lit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Pl n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Cz 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Sk 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Hu 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Slo n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Ro 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0
Bg n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Average 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.9
Consumption Trends for Dairy and Livestock Products, and the Use of Feeds in Production 75

Country Cereals Maize Barley Wheat Protein Soybean Sunflowersee Rapeseed Legumes Starchy Grassland Other
total feed total cake d cake cake roots and roughage
pasture (clover,
lucerne
etc.)
Improvements in storage
Est 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0
Lat n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Lit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0
Pl n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. -1.0 1.0 1.0
Cz 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Sk 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0
Hu 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
Slo n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Ro 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Bg n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Average 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.1 0.9 1.0
Source: Country experts.

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