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Demand Response Model for Residential

Appliances and Distributed Generators


Hua Shao, Xihui Yan, Ying Wang, Xianglong Yin and Hongshan Zhao

 around 40% of the total energy use all over the world [3]. In
Abstract—In the future power system, residential consumers addition, the gradual increase of the photovoltaic power
can be seen as an energy resource with decentralized and generation system on the residential side will inject a new
autonomous decisions in the energy management. Each consumer element into DR. Introducing the residential distributed energy
will possess controllable loads and small generator units in their
house. This paper presents a dynamic demand response (DR)
to DR, the power supply behavior of distributed energy can be
model based on a controllable set composed of residential reasonably arranged according to DR reduction request.
appliances and distributed generators. This DR model provides The traditional approaches to demand-side management
fine-grained balancing peak demand by hierarchical sorting and have focused on peak load reduction and have relied on macro
combinatorial optimization. This paper first proposes a balancing events, which require end-user curtailment for tens of
multiplicative ARIMA load forecasting method based on a minutes to multiple hours at a time. This method may aggravate
combination of longitudinal and lateral time. Secondly, detailed
models are established for air-conditioning, water heaters, electric
user comfort and convenience. In the hot summer, if the air
vehicles, and solar photovoltaic systems. Finally, the DR model is conditioner is shut down for a long time, the user's comfort will
built according to the controllability and priority of the take a turn for the worse. If the charging of the user's electric
controllable set in a single short. Simulation results show that this vehicles is stopped for a certain period of time, there may not be
model reduces load finely. enough power to drive. In order to change this situation, the
control time slot for DR reduction load can be shortened, such
Index Terms—Demand response, load forecasting, controllable as 5 minutes [4], [5].
load, distributed generators
DR can reduce the peak demand in the control area and
improve the economy and safety of power grid operation. DR
I. INTRODUCTION based on the short-slot to balance supply and demand can
improve the satisfaction of the customers from the demand side
C NUSTOMERS enrolled in existing wholesale and retail
demand response (DR) programs were capable of
providing ƒ”‘—† 38,000 MW of potential peak load
with electricity consumption and the comfort of the residents'
life. Therefore, the research of load dynamic microbalance
control has important value and application prospects.
reductions in the United States in 2008 [1]. Residential DR The organization of the paper is as follows: Related work
market has heated up in recent years. From EIA retail data and have been discussed in Section II. Section III builds a load
ISO/RTO wholesale data for 2015, residential customer DR forecasting model. Residential load model and demand
accounted for 8,703 MW. DR manages the electric usage by response model established in Section IV and Section V
end-use customers from their normal consumption patterns in respectively are simulated in Section VI. Section VII concludes
response to match changes in power supply and demand [2]. the paper.
DR occurs when an electricity consumer reduces their energy
demand at specific times of power system need. When there is a II. RELATED WORK
peak demand for grid power, DR program sends a load
reduction request to end-use customers in the form of Most DR schemes focus on a single or a few controllable
price-based or incentive-based. End-use customers decide appliances, including air conditioners (ACs), water heaters
whether to respond to the request according to its own needs. (WHs), and electric vehicles (EVs) and so on. Residential
The energy consumption of the residential section accounts for air-conditioning is widely believed to be the prime cause of the
rise in peak demand. [6] proposes an algorithm which can
recognize air-conditioner use and can identify consumption
Manuscript received August 1, 2018. This work was funded by State Grid
patterns and peak load. A dynamic model of the AC load with
Hebei Electric Power Supply co. Ltd. (contract no. SGHEJY00GHJS1800092).
Hua Shao and Ying Wang are with Economic Technology Research Institute, thermostat action has been considered for applying for demand
State Grid Hebei Electric Power Company, Shijiazhuang 050021, response program [7]. A temperature-priority-list method is
China.(e-mail: 791638257@qq.com; mfs_fe@163.com). Xihui Yan who is used to dispatch the HVAC loads optimally to maintain
corresponding author, Xianglong Yin, and Hongshan Zhao are with School of
Electrical & Electronic Engineering, North China Electric Power University, customer-desired indoor temperatures and load diversity [8].
Baoding 071003, China.(e-mail: 2318247982@qq.com; zhaohshcn@126.com; The electric water heaters power consumption has a high
fecrepe@gmail.com)

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978-1-5386-6461-2/18/$31.00 ©2018 IEEE
correlation with daily load patterns. They constitute a prediction model. DR arranges controllable load scheduling
significant percentage of domestic electrical load and its according to whether the user responds to the request for load
heating element is a resistor, without reactive power reduction. This section proposes a multiplicative ARIMA
consumption. These factors bring a great potential to electric model of combined time series to predict the total hourly load
WHs in implementing demand response strategies. A new demand.
partial differential equation physics-based model is developed
A. Multiplicative ARIMA Model
in [9]. [10] shows that appropriately controlling the water
heater temperature will be of great value to both utility and Historical load data is essentially a time series in which the
consumer demand response programs. EVs are expected to daily load demand curve exhibits periodicity or a seasonal trend.
become widespread in future years. It is foreseen that EVs will A seasonal load curve means that there is a relationship
become the new high-electricity-consuming appliances in the between load demands during the same segment in the
households. [11] proposes an algorithm for distributed DR of continuous time period. The multiplicative ARIMA model is an
the EVs to shape the daily demand profile or to minimize the extension of the ARIMA model that addresses seasonality and
peak demand. [12] presents such matching demand response potential seasonal unit roots [18].
algorithm for residential users owning vehicle-to-gild(V2G) In lag operator polynomial notation, Liyt=yt-i. For a Historical
enable plug-in electric vehicles(PEVs) who obtain electricity load data series with periodicity s, the multiplicative
from a common retailer. The proposed household model in [13] ARIMA(p,D,q)×(ps,Ds,qs)s is given by
comprises several assert including non-shiftable appliances, I ( L))( L)(1  L) D (1  Ls ) Ds yt
(1)
shiftable appliances, and electric vehicle. It is expected that c  T ( L)4( L)H t
each consumer will manage not only the loads, but also small
Here, the stable, degree p AR operator polynomial
generation units, heating systems, storage systems, and electric
ϕ(L)=1−ϕ1L−…− ϕpLp, and Φ(L) is a stable, degree ps AR
vehicles in future power systems. [5] proposes a method to
operator of the same form. Similarly, the invertible, degree q
manage the appliances on a house during a demand response
MA operator polynomial θq(L)=1+θ1L+…+θqLq, and Θ(L) is an
event. The contribution of this method is to include time
invertible, degree qs MA operator of the same form. The
constraints in resources management and the context evaluation
non-seasonal differencing operator, (1−L)D accounts for
in order to ensure the required comfort levels.
nonstationarity in observations made in successive periods. The
Most DR schemes need a scheduling technique for customer
seasonal differencing operator, (1−Ls)Ds, accounts for
loads management based on price fluctuations or emergency
nonstationarity in observations made in the same period in a
cases [14]. Those DR schemes use optimization methods to
successive time period.
achieve a certain goal [15]. To ensure adequate comfort levels
during peak demand or other constraints and objectives in a B. Load Forecasting Model
long time duration of DR, a dynamic load model is proposed in A multiplicative ARIMA model based on the combination of
[5], [16], [17]. [17] proposes a real-time balancing algorithm lateral time series and longitudinal time series is proposed.
based on online scheduling and provides an aggregated solution Take a month as an example, as shown in Fig.1, where the
for multiple types of devices, using a queue-based approach horizontal time series is a continuous observation time series,
with low computation complexity. [4] constructs a flexible such as load data for five consecutive days from Monday to
virtual power plant resources selection framework based on Friday. A longitudinal time series refers to a subsequence of
micro-balancing events. At present, there is little research on data selected from a series of consecutive observation time
load dispatching based on residential distributed generation series, such as a series of load data sequences selected from a
[15]. This paper considers the various constraints of the one-month observation period.
controllable load on the residential side and introduces the Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
distributed generation and controllable load of residents into 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
the DR scheme as a resource set. Finally, a dynamic short-slot
8 9 10 11 12 13 14
demand response model based on sorting by load priority and
combining optimization. 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
22 23 24 25 26 27 28
III. LOAD FORECASTING
29 30 31
Load forecasting is the basis for arranging power supply in a
certain area. Accurate load demand forecasting can avoid large Fig. 1. Lateral time series and longitudinal time series
power shortage or power redundancy. A suitable model to A multiplicative ARIMA load forecasting model is
predict the output of distributed generation is also needed. The established for the lateral time series and the longitudinal time
peak demand period is roughly determined by the above series, and the relaxation factor α is introduced. Assuming that

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the prediction results of the two load prediction models are yF1 usage methods for users, as shown in TABLE I. 30% of users
and yF2, respectively, the final prediction sequence is turn off the air conditioner during the day and turn on the air
yF D yF1  (1  D ) yF 2 (2) conditioner in the evening. These ACs are modeled with
The optimal relaxation factor can be determined by grid normally distributed random variables with means at 3 p.m.
search, and the optimal evaluation index is selected as Root (AC on) and 9 a.m. (AC off), respectively. 30% of users turn on
Mean Square Error of the prediction sequence and the the air conditioner during the day and turn off the air
measured sequence. A multiplicative ARIMA model is conditioner in the evening. 30% of the users keep their AC on
established for the load demand of California in May 2018. all day.
TABLE I
This data from www.caiso.com represents historical hourly AC USAGE METHODS
load data from EMS. The horizontal time prediction model Type AC on AC off
eliminates weekend load data, selects working day data forecast. A (30%) N(15,12) N(9,12)
The longitudinal time prediction model selects load data for B (30%) N(9,12) N(20,12)
May and April. The above two prediction models respectively C (30%) All day
predict the hourly load demand on May 23, and then determine
Three air conditioning power curves are obtained from [20],
the relaxation factor by 0.58 through the grid search to obtain
and each curve is normalized to obtain a reference curve, as
the minimum Root Mean Square Error. The predicted results
shown in Fig.3. According to the three usage behaviors of the
are shown in Fig.2.
32
air conditioner, load profiles for individual ACs are generated
measured value based on these three curves.
30 forecast value
1
confidence interval AC power profile1
28 0.9
AC power profile2
power/MW

0.8 AC power profile3


26
0.7
24 0.6
Power

22 0.5
0.4
20 0.3
0.2
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
time/1hour 0.1
Fig. 2. Load forecasting 0
0 5 10 15 20 24
time/1hour
Fig. 3. Baseline profiles of AC
IV. RESIDENTIAL LOAD MODEL
This paper integrates controllable loads on the residential B. Water Heaters
side and distributed generators into a controllable set. Detailed A 60% electric water heaters penetration is adopted. Each
models of the individual controllable components are built water heater is rated at 4.5kW and a water tank capacity of 80L.
separately. Controllable loads include ACs, WHs, EVs and The initial water storage capacity of the user's water heater is
photovoltaic power system. subject to a uniform distribution from 60L to 80L. The initial
temperature of the water is 15°C, and the user-set heating
A. Air Conditioners temperature is subject to a uniform distribution from 50°C to
The acceptable indoor temperature for the human body 65°C. The working time required for the water heater to heat
increases as the outdoor temperature rises [19]. Considering the the input cold water to the set temperature is:
relationship between air conditioning output and cooling TWH = (cm'TK ) / P (3)
temperature and user comfort constraints, temperature control
where P is the rated power of the water heater; c is the specific
is implemented for the air conditioning cluster. The
heat capacity of the water, the value is 4.187 kJ/(Kg·°C), here it
temperature control appropriately increases the user-set cooling
is converted to 1.163 kWh/(kg·°C); ΔT is the change in water
temperature based on the maximum cooling temperature that
temperature, that is, the difference between the hot water
the user can tolerate. Every one degree cooler in summer adds
temperature Th and the input cold water temperature Tc; m is the
around 10% to the amount of electricity that the AC uses.
weight of water; TWH is the time taken to heat the water.
We assume that 90% of the households have air conditioners
During the power-on period of the water heater, the water
which are all wall units with 1.5 kW capacity. Since different
heater can be shut down according to whether the user responds
users may set different cooling temperatures, load profiles for
to the load reduction request. For the user's water heater usage
individual ACs are generated through multiplying a baseline
behavior, it is assumed that the user injects the required amount
AC profile by a random variable with a uniform distribution
of water into the water heater once a day. There are two types of
between 0.8 and 1.2. There are three types of air conditioner
water heater usage methods for users, as shown in TABLE II.

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40% of users use the water heater in the evening. These WHs SOCcha CI / TC (5)
are modeled with normally distributed random variables with where SOCcha represents the state of charge added by charging
means at 6 p.m. (WH on) and 10 p.m (WH off), respectively. 20% an electric vehicle per unit time, TC is total charging time. For a
of users turn on the water heater in the morning. These WHs are demand response execution slot, the increased SOC value of
modeled with normally distributed random variables with the electric vehicle battery is the length of this execution slot
means at 6 a.m. (WH on) and 8 a.m. (WH off), respectively. multiplied by SOCcha. The SOC of an electric vehicle battery
TABLE II
WH USAGE METHODS varies from 0 to 1.
Type WH on WH off
In a demand response execution time slot, the electric vehicle
A (40%) N(18,12) N(22,12) battery state of charge is related to the previous control time
B (20%) N(6,12) N(8,12) slot.
SOCt 1 SOCt  'SOCt (6)
C. Electric Vehicles where SOCt is the SOC value of the electric vehicle in the t-th
50% electric vehicles penetration is adopted. This paper demand response execution slot, ΔSOCt is the SOC change
selects three brands of electric vehicle data to form an electric amount after the t-th time slot is completed. If the electric
vehicle cluster. The specific parameters of these electric vehicle has been charged in this time slot, ΔSOCt is positive; if
vehicles are shown in TABLE III. this electric vehicle has been discharged in this time slot,
TABLE III ΔSOCt is negative.
PARAMETERS FOR THE EVS
Type Battery(kWh) Charging(kW)
Ordinary charging D. Photovoltaic System
time(minute)
A (32.1%) 60 11 630
We adopt 50% residential photovoltaic power penetration. In
B (62.6%) 24 3.3 480 order to simplify the simulation, the angle and direction of the
C (5.3%) 16 1.14 540 installation of the solar panels by the residents are the same,
that is, only the solar energy of the south-facing buildings is
The charging mode of the electric vehicle cluster is selected
considered to be installed. At present, the average solar panel is
as the disordered charging, and the charging mode of the
about 3.25 feet by 5.4 feet and puts out about 265 watts of
electric vehicle is adopted as the ordinary charging so that the
electricity. In the simulation, the number of solar panels
controllable time of the electric vehicle cluster is greatly
installed in a home is subject to a normal distribution with a
extended. This paper assumes that the charging start time of the
mean of 2 and a standard deviation of 1.
electric vehicle obeys the normal distribution with a mean value
The photovoltaic output curve with a rated power of 150kW
of 6 p.m. and a standard deviation of 1.5 hours; the charging
is shown in Fig.4, and its photoelectric conversion efficiency is
end time is subject to a normal distribution with a mean value of
about 73.64%. This data comes from CSEE Cup 2017 National
9 a.m. and a standard deviation of 1 hour. Monte Carlo random
University Students Electrical Math Modeling Competition.
sampling is adopted to simulate the start and end times of EVs
Using this profile as the reference power curve, all the
charging.
photovoltaic output curves are generated based on the number
The travel distance and travel time are not considered here,
of solar panels installed in a home.
and the controllable information is only determined for the state 120
of charge (SOC) of the battery. Its value is defined as the ratio PV data
100 Line PV data
of the remaining capacity of the battery to the capacity of the PV Rated Power
battery [21]. 80
Power(kW)

SOC QI / CI (4) 60

where QI is the remaining capacity of the battery, CI is the 40


battery rated capacity, given by the manufacture. 20
The initial SOC of the electric vehicle obeys the normal
0
distribution with a mean value of 0.6 and a standard deviation 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
time/15min
of 0.1 [22], and the electric vehicle running power consumption
Fig. 4. Solar system output curve
obeys the normal distribution with a mean value of 0.4 and a
standard deviation of 0.1. It is assumed that the same SOC can
V. DEMAND RESPONSE MODEL
be increased at each unit charging time (for example, 10
minutes, etc.) regardless of the pre-charging period or the later In this paper, the demand response mainly implements the
period. In order to simplify the simulation, when the electric function of load peak shaving. The time size of the demand
vehicle adopts the ordinary charging mode, the SOC of battery response execution can be a whole day or a specified time
that can be increased by a unit time is calculated by period of the day. This execution time period is composed of a

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plurality of small control time slots which can be 5 minutes, 10 users, different users have different perceptions and tolerances
minutes, and the like. for temperature deviation. Generally, when the temperature
We present a DR scheme model based on hierarchical sorting fluctuation ranges from 0°C to 3°C, the human body is not
and combinatorial optimization. This model is suitable for sensitive to temperature changes. For example, when the
price-based DR and incentive-based DR. Before designing a demand response reduces the peak load, the availability
demand response model, it is necessary to define the information of the air conditioner can be expressed as
controllability and priority of each controllable device R1ėP1ėR2ėR2ėNėN
participating in the demand response event. In each control slot, where R1 indicates that the air conditioner will stop operating in
the individual elements in the controllable set are ordered this slot. R2 indicates that the air conditioner will be reset the
according to their priority. For subsets with the same priority, cooling temperature under the tolerance of the user, and operate
this controllable set is sorted again by adding a new rule. in a low power mode.
Finally, a controllable sequence is formed, and the controllable If the electricity provider reimburses EVs per hour of
components in the sequence are selected and optimized to meet curtailment, it might be desirable to prioritize that once an EV
the load reduction requirements. is selected for curtailment in a control slot, it should be
curtailed for the following 55 minutes since the customer will
A. Micro Balancing Events
be reimbursed for the whole hour anyway. If the state of charge
For a given reduction target for energy E, the micro of the electric vehicle battery reaches 0.7 or more, the
balancing events can be expressed as subsequent control slots have a higher priority to participate in
i n j m
E ¦ ¦ Bij Si Pj (7) DR reduction; if the state of charge is between 0.5 and 0.7, the
priority of the subsequent slot is lowered by one level; if the
i 1 j 1

where Bij is a binary variable, indicating whether the j-th device state of charge is less than 0.3, the electric vehicle refused to
with the capacity Pj is controllable in the i-th control slot Si. The respond to the request of DR. For example, the priorities setting
load balancing duration D given by the network side is divided of an electric vehicle is as follows:
into n control slots. There are at most m devices that can NėNė…ėP1ėR1ėP1ėP1ėR1
participate in load balancing events. The micro balancing is At the start of charging of this electric vehicle, it refuses to
shown in Fig.5. participate in demand response due to the low state of charge.
This electric vehicle can participate in load reduction when its
Total load curtailment

state of charge reaches the threshold at which it is set to


Micro balancing

participate in demand response.


C. Demand Response Model
We present a DR scheme model based on hierarchical sorting
and combinatorial optimization. Hierarchical sorting is divided
The duration of banlancing events into four levels according to different sorting principles. The
Fig. 5. Micro balancing events first level of ranking is ranked from highest to lowest according
to the priorities of controllable devices. The second level of
B. Controllability and Priority of Load
ranking is for the same priority load, according to the remaining
The availability of the load is marked according to whether participation slots from small to many. The third level ranking
the device is powered on within each control slot. If a device is is for the load with the same number of remaining participating
connected to the grid and this device is in operation, it is slots, sorted according to the capacity of the device from large
marked as Y, indicating that this device is available, otherwise it to small. The last level of sorting is for loads of the same
is marked as N, indicating that it is unavailable. If a device capacity, sorted by the number of participating cuts from small
accepts the demand response request in a control slot, this slot to large. The list of resource participation can be obtained
is marked with R and a digital representation. R1 indicates that according to the above sorting principles. Within each control
the load is allowed to be completely reduced in the current time slot, the resource selection algorithm establishes a
control slot. R2 indicates that the load is allowed to operate in a resource participation list according to the priority rules
low-energy mode in this current slot, and the reduced load is the described above, then sequentially selects devices from the
difference between the low-energy and the original high-energy resource list to perform load balancing until the sum of the
mode. Marking a control slot with P and a number indicates the capacities of the selected load devices reaches the target
priority at which a load participates in the DR scheme at that reduction capacity.
time slot. The smaller the number after P, the higher the priority In order to improve the accuracy of load micro-balance, the
for participating in load reduction. simulated annealing algorithm is used to determine the optimal
Under the condition of the cooling temperature set by the

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load reduction set. First, the number of reduction loads that are for electricity, and most electric vehicles and water heaters
sequentially selected is expanded by multiplying this number became uncontrollable or reduced in priority, while about 60%
by an expansion factor. Then, under the premise of given target of air conditioners were available for more participation.
160
reduction power, the simulated annealing algorithm is used to 140
Target Load
Curtailed Load
Load Error

select a load set with the smallest difference from the reduced 120
target from the extended load. 100
80

Load
VI. SIMULATION 60

40
We simulate one day of continuous micro balancing which 20
performs resource selection per 5-minute time slot. The sample 0
size on the residential side is 1000 households. The load -20
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
reduction target is based on the daily load demand curve of Control slots
Fig. 6. Performance of DR load reduction
Section III.
A. Simulation Setting 20

Number of participation
The simulation selects a typical day in summer. According to 15
AC
the load models described above, the Monte Carlo is used to 10
EV
WH
generate load information of each controllable component.
During the load running time period, the controllable 5

information is randomly identified for each slot to reflect the 0


0 500 1000 1500 2000
situation in which consumers participate in demand response. Appliance label

The initial priority of each load is randomly generated Fig. 7. Participation level
according to the probability in TABLE IV. The characteristics of part of ACs, WHs, and EVs
TABLE IV participating in DR are shown in Fig.8, Fig.9, and Fig.10,
PRIORITY PROBABILITY respectively.
Priority P1 P2 P3 P4 P5
Probability 1/3 1/3 1/9 1/9 1/9
During the daytime lighting period, the photovoltaic system 15
14
4
9
is set to have the highest priority to supplement the grid's power 13
10
11
12 2
requirements. If the photovoltaic power generation can meet 16
4
17
the power demand at this time, there is still a margin, and the 8
24
23 0
22
lowest priority of the electric vehicle load can be set. 21
20
19
Four different reduction targets are based on the daily load 18
7
6
-2

5
demand curve in Section III. Reduction targets of the first 8 3
1
2

hours are subject to a uniform distribution from 20kW to 30kW. -4


116

348

597

511
527
893
851

879
361
781

713
674

692
492
103
130
248

194

164

300

140
234
577
564

396
336
547
463
379
419
453
321
442

733
767
865

635
798
819

618

752
651

268
288

176
214
13
32

92
76

58
2

Reduction targets of subsequent 6, 5, and 5 hours are subject to Fig. 8. The characteristics of ACs participating in DR
a uniform distribution from 50 kW to 60 kW, from 120 kW to
150 kW, and from 60 kW to 70 kW, respectively. 4
19
18
17
B. Result and Discussion 5
7
9 2
6

The load reduction performance and the number of 23


24
16
15
participation of each controllable load are shown in Fig.6 and 14
13
12
0

Fig.7, respectively. The DR successfully reduces the load 11


10
8
4 -2

demand to the vicinity of the target value. But because there are 3
1
2
21
a certain number of low priority loads, these loads are idle when 20
22 -4
1339

1460
1400
1386
1369
1354
1309
1326
1475
1412
1302
1320
1491
1382
1447
1294
1268
1233
1204
1155
1062
1148
1226

1037
1160
1177
1106
1136
1072
1014

1217
1169
1055

1279
1129
1096
1086

1024
1196
1254
1431

1042
976

929

988
917
962

902
912

942
948

other loads can meet the reduction targets, resulting in


Fig. 9. The characteristics of WHs participating in DR
extremely low participation levels. ACs participation levels are
higher than WHs and EVs. This is because the amount of time
that ACs can participate in micro balancing events is greater
than the amount of time of WHs and EVs.
In the 100th to 200th control time slots, that is, from 8:00 am
to 4:00 pm, the load micro balancing has a small error. During
this period, photovoltaic power generation reduced the demand

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