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around 40% of the total energy use all over the world [3]. In
Abstract—In the future power system, residential consumers addition, the gradual increase of the photovoltaic power
can be seen as an energy resource with decentralized and generation system on the residential side will inject a new
autonomous decisions in the energy management. Each consumer element into DR. Introducing the residential distributed energy
will possess controllable loads and small generator units in their
house. This paper presents a dynamic demand response (DR)
to DR, the power supply behavior of distributed energy can be
model based on a controllable set composed of residential reasonably arranged according to DR reduction request.
appliances and distributed generators. This DR model provides The traditional approaches to demand-side management
fine-grained balancing peak demand by hierarchical sorting and have focused on peak load reduction and have relied on macro
combinatorial optimization. This paper first proposes a balancing events, which require end-user curtailment for tens of
multiplicative ARIMA load forecasting method based on a minutes to multiple hours at a time. This method may aggravate
combination of longitudinal and lateral time. Secondly, detailed
models are established for air-conditioning, water heaters, electric
user comfort and convenience. In the hot summer, if the air
vehicles, and solar photovoltaic systems. Finally, the DR model is conditioner is shut down for a long time, the user's comfort will
built according to the controllability and priority of the take a turn for the worse. If the charging of the user's electric
controllable set in a single short. Simulation results show that this vehicles is stopped for a certain period of time, there may not be
model reduces load finely. enough power to drive. In order to change this situation, the
control time slot for DR reduction load can be shortened, such
Index Terms—Demand response, load forecasting, controllable as 5 minutes [4], [5].
load, distributed generators
DR can reduce the peak demand in the control area and
improve the economy and safety of power grid operation. DR
I. INTRODUCTION based on the short-slot to balance supply and demand can
improve the satisfaction of the customers from the demand side
C NUSTOMERS enrolled in existing wholesale and retail
demand response (DR) programs were capable of
providing 38,000 MW of potential peak load
with electricity consumption and the comfort of the residents'
life. Therefore, the research of load dynamic microbalance
control has important value and application prospects.
reductions in the United States in 2008 [1]. Residential DR The organization of the paper is as follows: Related work
market has heated up in recent years. From EIA retail data and have been discussed in Section II. Section III builds a load
ISO/RTO wholesale data for 2015, residential customer DR forecasting model. Residential load model and demand
accounted for 8,703 MW. DR manages the electric usage by response model established in Section IV and Section V
end-use customers from their normal consumption patterns in respectively are simulated in Section VI. Section VII concludes
response to match changes in power supply and demand [2]. the paper.
DR occurs when an electricity consumer reduces their energy
demand at specific times of power system need. When there is a II. RELATED WORK
peak demand for grid power, DR program sends a load
reduction request to end-use customers in the form of Most DR schemes focus on a single or a few controllable
price-based or incentive-based. End-use customers decide appliances, including air conditioners (ACs), water heaters
whether to respond to the request according to its own needs. (WHs), and electric vehicles (EVs) and so on. Residential
The energy consumption of the residential section accounts for air-conditioning is widely believed to be the prime cause of the
rise in peak demand. [6] proposes an algorithm which can
recognize air-conditioner use and can identify consumption
Manuscript received August 1, 2018. This work was funded by State Grid
patterns and peak load. A dynamic model of the AC load with
Hebei Electric Power Supply co. Ltd. (contract no. SGHEJY00GHJS1800092).
Hua Shao and Ying Wang are with Economic Technology Research Institute, thermostat action has been considered for applying for demand
State Grid Hebei Electric Power Company, Shijiazhuang 050021, response program [7]. A temperature-priority-list method is
China.(e-mail: 791638257@qq.com; mfs_fe@163.com). Xihui Yan who is used to dispatch the HVAC loads optimally to maintain
corresponding author, Xianglong Yin, and Hongshan Zhao are with School of
Electrical & Electronic Engineering, North China Electric Power University, customer-desired indoor temperatures and load diversity [8].
Baoding 071003, China.(e-mail: 2318247982@qq.com; zhaohshcn@126.com; The electric water heaters power consumption has a high
fecrepe@gmail.com)
22 0.5
0.4
20 0.3
0.2
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
time/1hour 0.1
Fig. 2. Load forecasting 0
0 5 10 15 20 24
time/1hour
Fig. 3. Baseline profiles of AC
IV. RESIDENTIAL LOAD MODEL
This paper integrates controllable loads on the residential B. Water Heaters
side and distributed generators into a controllable set. Detailed A 60% electric water heaters penetration is adopted. Each
models of the individual controllable components are built water heater is rated at 4.5kW and a water tank capacity of 80L.
separately. Controllable loads include ACs, WHs, EVs and The initial water storage capacity of the user's water heater is
photovoltaic power system. subject to a uniform distribution from 60L to 80L. The initial
temperature of the water is 15°C, and the user-set heating
A. Air Conditioners temperature is subject to a uniform distribution from 50°C to
The acceptable indoor temperature for the human body 65°C. The working time required for the water heater to heat
increases as the outdoor temperature rises [19]. Considering the the input cold water to the set temperature is:
relationship between air conditioning output and cooling TWH = (cm'TK ) / P (3)
temperature and user comfort constraints, temperature control
where P is the rated power of the water heater; c is the specific
is implemented for the air conditioning cluster. The
heat capacity of the water, the value is 4.187 kJ/(Kg·°C), here it
temperature control appropriately increases the user-set cooling
is converted to 1.163 kWh/(kg·°C); ΔT is the change in water
temperature based on the maximum cooling temperature that
temperature, that is, the difference between the hot water
the user can tolerate. Every one degree cooler in summer adds
temperature Th and the input cold water temperature Tc; m is the
around 10% to the amount of electricity that the AC uses.
weight of water; TWH is the time taken to heat the water.
We assume that 90% of the households have air conditioners
During the power-on period of the water heater, the water
which are all wall units with 1.5 kW capacity. Since different
heater can be shut down according to whether the user responds
users may set different cooling temperatures, load profiles for
to the load reduction request. For the user's water heater usage
individual ACs are generated through multiplying a baseline
behavior, it is assumed that the user injects the required amount
AC profile by a random variable with a uniform distribution
of water into the water heater once a day. There are two types of
between 0.8 and 1.2. There are three types of air conditioner
water heater usage methods for users, as shown in TABLE II.
SOC QI / CI (4) 60
where Bij is a binary variable, indicating whether the j-th device state of charge is less than 0.3, the electric vehicle refused to
with the capacity Pj is controllable in the i-th control slot Si. The respond to the request of DR. For example, the priorities setting
load balancing duration D given by the network side is divided of an electric vehicle is as follows:
into n control slots. There are at most m devices that can NėNė…ėP1ėR1ėP1ėP1ėR1
participate in load balancing events. The micro balancing is At the start of charging of this electric vehicle, it refuses to
shown in Fig.5. participate in demand response due to the low state of charge.
This electric vehicle can participate in load reduction when its
Total load curtailment
select a load set with the smallest difference from the reduced 120
target from the extended load. 100
80
Load
VI. SIMULATION 60
40
We simulate one day of continuous micro balancing which 20
performs resource selection per 5-minute time slot. The sample 0
size on the residential side is 1000 households. The load -20
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
reduction target is based on the daily load demand curve of Control slots
Fig. 6. Performance of DR load reduction
Section III.
A. Simulation Setting 20
Number of participation
The simulation selects a typical day in summer. According to 15
AC
the load models described above, the Monte Carlo is used to 10
EV
WH
generate load information of each controllable component.
During the load running time period, the controllable 5
The initial priority of each load is randomly generated Fig. 7. Participation level
according to the probability in TABLE IV. The characteristics of part of ACs, WHs, and EVs
TABLE IV participating in DR are shown in Fig.8, Fig.9, and Fig.10,
PRIORITY PROBABILITY respectively.
Priority P1 P2 P3 P4 P5
Probability 1/3 1/3 1/9 1/9 1/9
During the daytime lighting period, the photovoltaic system 15
14
4
9
is set to have the highest priority to supplement the grid's power 13
10
11
12 2
requirements. If the photovoltaic power generation can meet 16
4
17
the power demand at this time, there is still a margin, and the 8
24
23 0
22
lowest priority of the electric vehicle load can be set. 21
20
19
Four different reduction targets are based on the daily load 18
7
6
-2
5
demand curve in Section III. Reduction targets of the first 8 3
1
2
348
597
511
527
893
851
879
361
781
713
674
692
492
103
130
248
194
164
300
140
234
577
564
396
336
547
463
379
419
453
321
442
733
767
865
635
798
819
618
752
651
268
288
176
214
13
32
92
76
58
2
Reduction targets of subsequent 6, 5, and 5 hours are subject to Fig. 8. The characteristics of ACs participating in DR
a uniform distribution from 50 kW to 60 kW, from 120 kW to
150 kW, and from 60 kW to 70 kW, respectively. 4
19
18
17
B. Result and Discussion 5
7
9 2
6
demand to the vicinity of the target value. But because there are 3
1
2
21
a certain number of low priority loads, these loads are idle when 20
22 -4
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1825
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1708
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1975
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1945
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1954
1771
Fig. 10. The characteristics of ACs participating in DR selection framework based on micro balancing events,” IEEE Power
Energy Soc. Gen. Meet., vol. 2016–November, 2016.
In Fig. 7 to Fig.10, the abscissa indicates the load label. [5] F. Fernandes, H. Morais, Z. Vale, and C. Ramos, “Dynamic load
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