Risk Analysis of the Electric Power Generation
Potential from Biogas Coming from Vinasse
Biodigestion
Luane Schiochet Pinto Elder Geraldo Domingues
Federal Institute of Goiás Experimental & Technological
Goiânia,Goiás Research and Study Group
luane.schiochet@hotmail.com Federal Institute of Goiás
Goiânia,Goiás
eldergd@uol.com.br
Simone Ramalho Martin Heinz Eugen Tschudin
Federal Institute of Goiás Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich
Goiânia, Goiás Zurich, Switzerland
simoneramalho@gmail.com martin.tschudin@sunrise.net
Abstract— This paper presents risk analysis methodology of to
determine the biogas and electricity generation potential from
vinasse generated in the ethanol production process in sugarcane
plants. The Monte Carlo method, associated with the Cholesky
decomposition, is applied to stochastic models for the generation
of synthetic time series for the random variables: (i) quantity of
cane ground; (ii) quantity of sugarcane bagasse extracted from the
process; (iii) ethanol production. The production of vinasse is
obtained from the production of ethanol. A case study is developed
based on historical data from a sugarcane industry located in the
Midwest region of Brazil. The Dickey Fuller and Variance Ratio
tests corroborate the validation process of stochastic models. The
results present important information about the potential of
biogas production and electric power generation, which are
essential for the economic feasibility analysis of these types of
investment projects.
Keywords—biogas; electric power generation; stochastic
processes; monte carlo method; vinasse.
I. INTRODUCTION
The sugarcane industries generate, during the process of
manufacturing ethanol and sugar, huge amounts of waste such
as: bagasse, straw, ash, filter cake and vinasse. These well-
managed residues can generate electrical and thermal energy
through the burning of sugarcane bagasse and biogas through the
anaerobic biodigestion of sugarcane bagasse and vinasse [1].
The generation of electrical and thermal energy using
different types of biogas is characterized as an alternative
source, increasing the efficiency of energy use as well as waste
minimization [2].
The electric power generated in agroindustries is also known
as sugarcane bioelectricity, because it is a renewable energy
generated cleanly and efficiently. The potential of energy
generation by the sector is directly related to the supply of
biomass and the technology applied. In addition, this
Daywes Pinheiro Neto have scholarship from CAPES - Proc. nº
99999.002866/2014-05.
978-1-5090-6406-9/17/$31.00 ©2017 IEEE
Daywes Pinheiro Neto Fabricio Paiva Vieira
Experimental & Technological Federal Institute of Goiás
Research and Study Group Goiânia,Goiás
Federal Institute of Goiás engynconsultoria@yahoo.com.br
Federal Universty of Goiás
Goiânia,Goiás
daywes.p.n@ieee.org
Giordani Pacifico Medeiros
Federal Institute of Goiás
Goiânia, Goiás
giordanipmedeiros@gmail.com
bioelectricity is an advantage for being complementary to
hydroelectric power, once the sugarcane industries harvest
coincides with the dry season [3].
Most studies found in the literature use vinasse to generate
electricity based on deterministic methods. According to [4],
that presents a study with the purpose of comparing different
alternatives for the use of vinasse energy, wherein
environmental and economic impacts are taken into account. In
[5] is presented a deterministic technical and economic
feasibility study of vinasse usage for electric power production
based on the criteria of Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Net
Present Value (NPV) and Discounted Payback Period (DPP).
The deterministic technical and financial analysis of
electricity generation from the vinasse is elaborated in [6]. This
analysis comprises the dimensioning of all equipments of the
biodigestion process and electric power generation and
furthermore presentes the project feasibility analysis based on
investment data, system operation and maintenance.
Risk analysis considers the random variables involved in the
process, offering a comprehensive approach and risk
information to support decision making. In this sense, this article
presents a risk analysis methodology to determine the potential
for biogas generation from vinasse resulting from the ethanol
production process in sugarcane plants and from the electricity
generation to provide important information for the economic
feasibility analysis of these types of projects.
II. METHODOLOGY
To validate the proposed methodology, a case study was
carried out for a sugarcane industry located 170 km from the city
of Goiânia, in the region of Brazil Midwest.
In this article, the following random variables were
considered: i) amount of ground cane, ii) amount of sugarcane
bagasse extracted from the process, and iii) ethanol production.
Based on these three random variables, the production of
vinasse, the production of biogas and the electricity generated
are estimated.
The analysis of the electric power generation potential
through the biogas use from vinasse is carried out using the
Monte Carlo Method [7], which is applied to the stochastic
models of the variables to generate synthetic series.
The simulations were performed with 2000 forecast
scenarios during the 10 year period. Random numbers are
generated using the Cholesky decomposition, which considers
the correlation etween the underlying random variables. The
general flowchart of the methodology is shown in Fig. 1.
Fig. 1 - General flowchart of the methodology.
A. Statistical Tests
The Dickey-Fuller (DF) and Variance Ratio tests were
applied in order to verify the stationarity of the historical data
series and to check whether mean reversion behavior is present
in the data [8], [9].
For the DF test, three models were tested: i) autoregressive
without drift (AR), ii) autoregressive with drift (ARD) and iii)
autoregressive with drift and trend (ARDT).
The variance ratio test ( ) for a random variable is given
by (1), was carried out to reinforce a choice of the stochastic
model. This test intends to verify the shocks extension of the
values of the series to determine whether they are temporary or
permanent [8], [9].
1 ( ) [8], [9], [11].
= (1)
( )
If the historical series follows the stationary process, the
variation of differences period stagnates at maximum value
with the increase of , causing to converge to zero. In non-
stationary case, this variation of the differences grows linearly
with and → 1 [8], [9].
The tests presented are carried out for the random variables,
amount of ground cane, amount of sugarcane bagasse extracted
from the process and ethanol production, indicating the
suitability of the mean reversion model use.
B. Seasonality Indexes
The random variables of sugarcane bagasse, amount of cane
bagasse extracted from the process and ethanol production
present seasonality over time. For the estimation of the
stochastic model parameters it is necessary that seasonality is
remove. This can be done via the use of a seasonal factor, called
as the seasonality index [10].
To determine seasonality indexes of a random variable
over time, one must find the ration between the average of the
historical values of a specific month and the average of all
historical values ( ), as (2) [10]:
= ; = 1,2,3, … , 12. (2)
To remove seasonality, the monthly historical data of the
random variable are divided by the seasonal indexes of the
corresponding month.
C. Parameters Estimation
The model parameters for the reversion process to the
arithmetic mean of a random variable are estimated based on
historical data of each random variable, without the seasonality,
according to the methodology developed by Dixit and Pindyck
First, a simple linear regression with , as a
dependent variable, and as an independent variable, given
by (3):
( )= +( 1) (3)
Then, the parameters are calculated from the estimated
values obtained through the linear regression of the series using
(4), (5), (6), wherein is the standard regression error.
Where is the linear coefficient; b is the angular
coefficient; and Δ is the time variation over a given interval.
 ln(b) concerning literature mentions that for each liter of ethanol, 7 to
η= (4) 15 liters of vinasse is generated [12], [13].
Δt
In this work, the annual historical data of ethanol and vinasse
production will be used in order to obtain the average vinasse
= production per liter of ethanol ( ).
( 1) (5)

= (10)
2ln( )
= (6)
( 1)Δ In (10), is the amount of vinasse produced in the ethanol
manufacturing process at period + 1, in m³/ month.

D. Random Variable Stochastic Model F. Biogas Production

Two mean reversion models were tested: arithmetic and
geometric. The mean and standard deviation values of the
synthetic series of the arithmetic model got closer to the mean
and standard deviation values of the historical data. In other
words, the statistical tests of the random variables indicate the
usage suitability of the mean reversion model. The use the mean
reversion process can be justified by applying various statistical
tests. In addition, historical data show seasonal behavior. Thus,
this paper proposes the same model from the model arithmetic
average reversal modified by including seasonal index [11].
The stochastic models representing each random variable
are given by (7), (8) and (9):
= + ( ̅ ) + √ (7)
= + ( ) + √
= + ( ) + √
To estimate the biogas production from the vinasse
digestion, it is primarily necessary to determine the organic
load, as a function of the Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD),
which will be converted into methane at period +
1( ), as (11) [6], [14], [15].
= ( ) (11)
In (11), the affluent COD estimation (kg COD/m³); S the
effluent COD estimation (kgCOD/m³) and Y the solids
production coefficient. For anaerobic treatment systems, the
value of 0.23 kg COD /kgCOD is used [6], [14].
After the estimation, the volumetric methane
production can be obtained by (12), through the ratio of the
volumetric methane production at period + 1 , in m³/ month
(8) ( ) per the correction factor of the operating temperature
of the reactor ( ( )) calculated by (13).
(9)

In (7), is the amount of cane ground at period + 1, = (12)

( )
with seasonality; is the amount of cane ground at an instant
t, without seasonality; is the reversion rate to the average ( )= (13)
value ̅ ; is the volatility of the ground cane amount; (273 + )
√ is the Wiener process of the ground cane amount, wherein
~ (0,1), and is the monthly seasonal index of ground In (13), the atmospheric pressure (1 atm); is the COD
cane amount. corresponding to one mole of CH4 (64 gCOQ/mol); is the gas
In (8), is the bagasse amount extracted from the constant (Atm.L/mol.°K) and the operating temperature of the
process at period + 1, with seasonality; is the amount of reactor.
extruded bagasse at an instant t, without seasonality; is the The biogas production estimation at period +1
reversion rate to the average value ; is the volatility of the ( á ) is obtained from the ratio between the volumetric
extruded bagasse amount; √ is the Wiener process of the methane production, in ( ) and the existing methane
extruded bagasse amount, wherein ~ (0,1), and is the concentration ( ) therein, in accordance with (14) [14], [15].
monthly seasonal index of extruded bagasse amount.
In (9), is the ethanol production at period + 1, with
seasonality; ethanol production at an instant t, without á = (14)
seasonality; is the reversion rate to the average value ;
is the volatility of the ethanol production; √ is the Wiener References [14], [15] assume 60% as methane proportion in
process of the ethanol production, wherein ~ (0,1), and biogas from vinasse.
is the monthly seasonal index of the ethanol production.
G. Obtaining of Electric Power and Generated Electricity
E. Vinasse Production In this research work, the Otto Cycle Generator Motor
From the synthetic series of the production of ethanol can be Group (GMG) technology will be used due to the following
obtained the synthetic series of vinasse production. The
factors: high efficiency for electric power generation and low TABLE I
RESULT OF THE DICHEY-FULLER TEST.
maintenance cost. AR ARD ARDT
The monthly available electric power ( ) is given by
p - Value 0.0871 0.0010 0.0010
(15) [6], wherein á is the lower calorific value of biogas Ground
t - Statictic -1.6830 -5.1209 -4.9799
cane
( / ³); is the efficiency of the applied technology 0 1 1
(%). p - Value 0.1120 0.0010 0.0010
Extruded
t - Statictic -1.5573 -5.4994 -5.3709
4,1868 bagasse
= (15) 0 1 1
á á
86.400 p - Value 0.0871 0.0010 0.0010
Ethanol
t - Statictic -1.6830 -5.1209 -4.9799
From the available electric power, it is possible to determine production
0 1 1
the monthly electricity generation, according to (16).
The presented results in Table I shows the rejection of
= (16)
( = 1), so all the random variables under analysis can be
modeled as a stationary series (mean reversion model).
In (16), is the generated electricity at period + Fig. 3 presents the result of the variance ratio test.
1( ) and is the operating hours number of the electric
power generation technology.

III. RESULTS
This section presents the results of the analyzed plant as case
study. It is a large agroindustry, located 170 km from Goiânia,
in the region Brazil Midwest. The average annual of sugar cane,
raw material, is 2,336,982 tons, this amount produces an average
of 80,101,217 liters of ethanol and 3,336,477 sacks of sugar.
The operating period of the plant, is harvest period occurs Fig. 3 - Result of the Variance Ratio test.
between the end of March to second fortnight of November of
each year. The inter-harvest period is the rest of the year, the end Note that the variance ratio series tends to stabilize at a value
of November until the beginning of March. At this period there close to zero, showing that the historical series have a mean
is no production and it is intended for maintenance. reversion behavior.
A. Historical Data C. Seasonal Indexes
Historical data of the plant were used to determine the Seasonal indexes calculated from the historical data are
models stochastic appropriate to each considered random presented in Table II.
variable and also for parameters estimation of these models. TABELA II
The historical data of ground cane amount, extracted SEASONAL INDEXES
bagasse amount and the ethanol production, are monthly and Seasonal Index Seasonal Index
Seasonal Index
cover the period from January 2007 to December 2016, of the Variable
of the Variable of the Variable
Ethanol
presented in Fig.2. Sugar Cane Extract Bagasse
Production
April 0.582 0.565 0.438
May 1.236 1.201 1.162
June 1.279 1.218 1.259
July 1.242 1.206 1.219
August 1.168 1.149 1.238
September 1.102 1.132 1.223
October 0.921 0.988 0.992
November 0.469 0.539 0.472

Fig. 2 - History of random variables ground cane, extruded bagasse and ethanol The months January, February, March and December are not
production. part of Table II as they represent the inter-harvest period.
B. Statistical Tests D. Parameters Estimation
The Table I presents the DF test result, that was applied Linear regression and parameter estimation have been
considering a significance level of 5%, wherein =1 carried out for all the random variables under consideration.
indicates rejection of the null hypothesis of non-stationary, that Nevetheless, the ethanol production has the main explanatory
is, the series is stationary. power for synthetic series related to vinasse production.
 The Figure 4 presents the linear regression for the monthly
historical series of ethanol production, and Table III presents
the parameters of the three variables under analysis to be used
in the stochastic process of arithmetic mean-reverting model.
Fig. 4 - Linear regression of ethanol production.
TABELA III
ESTIMATED PARAMETERS
Ground Cane Extruded Bagasse Ethanol Production
̅ [t] 302,884.54 [t] 8,331.85 [l] 1,0389,093
η 0.7125 η 0.7915 η 0.6397
138,122.24 39,219.53 4,776,489.7
E. Stochastic Model Validation of Synthetic Series of Ethanol
Production
In the validation process of the stochastic model of the
ethanol production synthetic series, historical data from January
2007 to December 2013 were used for parameter estimation, and
the historical data from January 2014 to December 2016 were
used for validation, as shown in Fig. 5.
Fig. 5. – Validation simulation of the random variable ethanol production.
It is observed in Fig. 5 that the model reliably represents the
behavior of the variable under analysis, where it is possible to
observe that the intrinsic characteristics of mean reversion and
seasonality are preserved. Note also that the line in red,
referring to the average values of the forecast data, is very close
to the historical used for validation.
For the purpose of comparison, the average ethanol
production was calculated from the historical data, resulting in
the value of 6,839,486.33 liters, and the simulation average with
2000 scenarios, reaching the value of 6,883,583.79 liters. This
fact confirms that the stochastic model used for ethanol
production forecast is accurate, because the averages have very
similar values.
F. Vinasse Production
The constant is determined by the historical data ratio
of the vinasse produced amount in the ethanol manufacturing
process by the ethanol production. This ratio presents values
ranging from 10.679 to 12.061 liters of vinasse generated per
liter of ethanol produced. The average of these values is equal
to 11.326, which value was used to generate the synthetic series
of vinasse production.
The Fig. 6 presents the 2000 scenarios simulation of the
synthetic series of the monthly vinasse production.
Fig. 6 – Synthetic vinasse production series.
The Fig. 6 presents that the maximum monthly volume and
the average volume of vinasse to be produced can reach
460,000 m³ and 150,000 m³, respectively.
G. Biogas Production
The Fig. 7 presents the 2000 scenarios generated for the
biogas production random variable, in m³, obtained from the
vinasse biodigestion, considering the operating temperature of
the reactor equals to 60ºC (vinasse temperature).
Fig. 7 – Biogas synthetic series obtained from vinasse biodigestion.
The Fig. 7 presents that the maximum monthly volume and
the average volume of biogas to be produced can reach
7,000,000 m³ and 2,000,000 m³, respectively.
H. Obtaining of Electric Power
To determine the useful electric power, the lower calorific
value of biogas ( á ) equal to 5,136.5 kcal and the
efficiency of the generator motor group ( ) equal to 42.20%
were assumed [13].
From the biogas production synthetic series, it is possible to
obtain the scenarios that represent the electric power to be
produced with the GMG technology usage of Otto Cycle. The
Fig. 8 presents the 2000 scenarios simulation of the electric
power random variable, in kW/month.
In the Fig. 8 it is noticed that the useful electric power
produced can reach a peak of 750 kW in a month, and the
monthly average is close to 220 kW/ .
I. Obtaining of Generated Electricity
It was considered that the GMG will operate 24 hours a day
for 30 days, or 720 hours per month, the 2000 scenarios of the
synthetic series of the electricity produced can be obtained. Fig. considerable energetic potential in addition to the
9 presents electricity generation potential, which observes the environmental gain from this form of power generation.
effect arising from the seasonal production of ethanol. Although the electricity generation potential reaches the
average maximum value of 89 MWh/month, the real
generation will be limited to the maximum system installed
capacity, in case of generation system implementation with
GMG.
The next step of this research is to conduct an economic
feasibility analysis of the energy use of the biogas produced
from vinasse with the Otto cycle generator motor group
technology usage.
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