Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
AMV
• Why M&V?
• Range of existing M&V Methods
• Uncertainty
• Improving Uncertainty
• Future of M&V
– Existing
– Other
• Summary
Non-Standard CDM
Research, modelling, simulations
Simulations
Standardised S.O.P
Modelling
Expert Calc’s /
Simple / S.P.P Estimation
Small
Guess # of inter-
Small Medium Large Very Large
active effects
Project Size (Savings) & Complexity
• Use technologies, approaches and methods aligned to the new world of work:
– G5,
– Artificial Intelligence(AI),
– Digitisation, Big Data, Data Science, Data Analytics,
– The Internet of Things(IoT),
– Huge amounts of sensors of all types,
– Huge amounts and types of data availability,
– Automation & Improved data sources, Data Availability, etc.,
– Increased resources are often all Open Source,
– M&V 2,
– …
© CMVPSA– all rights reserved
G5… (6G?) Presentation outline
‘5G will be as revolutionary as electricity.’ - Qualcomm.
5G is:
• More than just a simple internet upgrade;
• Super-fast. As much as 1 000 times faster than 4G. (Enough to download a full season of
Game of Thrones in seconds).
• dramatically increasing the lifespan of battery-dependent devices, sometimes up to 10
years
• The foundation atop which all future breakthrough tech will be built. These include, but
are not limited to:
• Enabling IoT sensors Not only will our devices be as smart as us, they will be able
• Safe, self-driving cars. to share a brains worth of data seamlessly between each other.
• Delivery drones. It’s hard to imagine just how incredible that is — it is huge!
• Drones that can change bulbs in street lights.
• Tiny robots inside water pipes that can repair cracks before they become a hazard.
• Surgeons who can perform operations remotely on patients thousands of kilometres away in
another country.
• Enabling flying cars, or,
• Virtual reality, or,
• Any other wonderous inventions that will take us even further into the future,
• etc.
Looking at the planned adoption and use of AI, a study found that SA,
together with the United Arab Emirates and Turkey, was one of the top three
countries in the region investing in AI in the past decade worth $1.6bn.
Supervised learning
(classification – regression)
Clustering
Dimensionality reduction
Structured prediction
Anomaly prediction
Artificial neural networks
Reinforcement learning
Theory application
Source: www.quora.com
-
MWh/day
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
00:30
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
01:00
0
01:30
02:00
02:30
03:00
03:30
3
04:00
5,000
Projects
04:30
05:00
05:30
06:00
06:30
07:00
implementation).
10,000
07:30
08:00
08:30
09:00
09:30
10:00
15,000
10:30
11:00
11:30
12:00
12:30
Hour
13:00
20,000
13:30
m^3/day
14:00
1
14:30
15:00
15:30
16:00
25,000
16:30
17:00
17:30
18:00
18:30
2
y = 0.0149x
R2 = 0.8994
19:00
30,000
19:30
20:00
20:30
21:00
21:30
35,000
22:30
23:00
40,000
0.97
SLA Factor
5
498,350 kWh
482,100 kWh
00:30
4
Consider a single weekday after DSM implementation
01:00
01:30
02:00
Total Pumping load [kW]
02:30
03:00
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
03:30
04:00 00:30
04:30 01:00
01:30
05:00
02:00
05:30
02:30
06:00 03:00
08:30 06:00
06:30
09:00
Baseline Electricity Consumption:
07:00
09:30
07:30
10:00 08:00
10:30 08:30
11:00 09:00
09:30
11:30
10:00
12:00 10:30
12:30 11:00
Hour
13:00 11:30
12:00
13:30
12:30
Hour
14:00
13:00
Baseline - Weekday [kW]
14:30 13:30
15:00 14:00
14:30
15:30
15:00
16:00
15:30
16:30 16:00
17:00 16:30
17:00
17:30
17:30
18:00
18:00
18:30 18:30
19:00 19:00
19:30
19:30
20:00
20:00
20:30
Example: SLA Combined Load Shift & Energy Efficiency
20:30 21:00
21:00 21:30
21:30 22:00
22:30
22:00
23:00
22:30 23:30
SLA Baseline - Weekday [kW]
23:00 00:00
SLA Baseline profile for a weekday
23:30
00:00
Future… Presentation outline
• “You get what you measure and verify!” – Hence M&V stays the most important
aspect of energy and water management
• Technologies and data availability makes M&V less costly, quicker to perform and
more credible
• Potential exist that the current SANAS accreditation approach for M&V Bodies will
become unnecessary in the long term future. Provided:
– Stakeholders agree on the tool to be used for a project or programme
29
© CMVPSA– all rights reserved
Karel Steyn
Tel: (011) 800-3981
Email: karel.steyn@eskom.co.za