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How good is your Cpk, really?
How many times have you seen reports containing such statements as
"The average diameter of bearings in the lot is 0.5768 inches" or "The
proportion defective of last month's production is 0.0024" or "The process
Cpk is 1.15"? In most cases, these statements are based upon sample data
from a much larger population than the statements would indicate.
Statistics, by their very nature, are really just estimates of the truth and,
as such, are subject to error. The magnitude of the error we encounter is a
function of the sample size from which the statistic is calculated and the
level of confidence we want to associate with the subject statistic.
When we report a Cpk of 1.15, the reader might assume that this is the
true Cpk, when in fact 1.15 is just an estimate. A better way to report this
result would be as follows: "I don't know the true Cpk, but based upon a
random sample of n = 45, I am 95-percent confident that it's between 0.89
and 1.41."
Did you say between 0.89 and 1.41? That's like telling a highway patrol
officer you're 95-percent confident you were going between 35 and 190
miles per hour before you were pulled over. When you consider that a
very bad Cpk is less than 1.00 and a great Cpk is greater than 1.33, the
range of 0.89 to 1.41 is essentially meaningless. So what's the problem
here? Either the sample size is too small or the confidence level needs to
be adjusted.
http://www.qualitydigest.com/may00/html/lastword.html 09/18/2001
Guest Columnist Edward Buxton Page 2 of 4
Equation 1
Note: The sample size is assumed to be less than 5 percent of the total
population. Otherwise, it would be appropriate to apply the finite
population correction factor.
Cpk = 1.15
n = 400
Z α/2 = 1.96
To express this in statement form, you could say, "I don't know the true
http://www.qualitydigest.com/may00/html/lastword.html 09/18/2001
Guest Columnist Edward Buxton Page 3 of 4
In most practical applications of Cpk, we don't really care how large the
Cpk is, but rather that it's not less than a certain value. What we actually
want is the lower confidence limit (LCL). This simply requires that we
calculate a single-sided error by using Zα rather than the Z α/2 used in
Equation 1.
Cpk LCL =
Equation 2
Assume a Cpk of 1.41 has been calculated from 150 observations. What
is the lower 90-percent confidence limit for this estimate?
Cpk = 1.41
n = 150
Z α = 1.28 (from Table 1 at 90% confidence)
Cpk lower 90% confidence limit =
To express this in a statement, you could say, "I don't know the true Cpk,
but based upon a random sample of 150 observations, I am 90-percent
confident that it's not less than 1.30" or "The lower 90-percent confidence
limit for the Cpk based upon 150 random samples is 1.30."
So why is all of this error stuff important? Consider that the industry de
facto definition of a "bad" process is one that has a Cpk of less than 1.00,
and the definition of a world-class process is one that has a Cpk greater
than 1.33. The amount of error with a marginal Cpk = 1.15 and a sample
http://www.qualitydigest.com/may00/html/lastword.html 09/18/2001
Guest Columnist Edward Buxton Page 4 of 4
References
http://www.qualitydigest.com/may00/html/lastword.html 09/18/2001