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Lakers trade for Anthony Davis: Why title talk is premature

until L.A. nails free agency ... without max money
 By Brad Botkin
 Jun 16, 8:36pm • 7 min read
 UPDATE Jun 16, 2019, 7:40pm

In a trade that was starting to feel more and more inevitable, the Lakers have acquired
Anthony Davis from the Pelicans in exchange for Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram, Josh
Hart, the No. 4 overall pick in this week's draft, two future first-round picks (2021 if it
falls 1-8, or 2022 unprotected, and the Lakers' 2024 first-rounder with the right to defer
until 2025), and the Pelicans can also swap first-round picks with the Lakers in 2023.
Any time you have to check about 10 sources to make sure you got all the first-round
picks and swaps and protections correct, you know it was a haul. Indeed, this is a
motherlode trade for New Orleans that will be paying off for years to come, while the
Lakers are in dicey waters that could drown any chance of a bright future if the present
isn't handled correctly.
If nothing else, landing Anthony Davis is a PR victory for the Lakers, who needed to
reset their narrative as an organization crumbling from within. At first glance, this
restores some faith in a maligned front office now headed by Rob Pelinka, who has
bought himself at least some equity with an impatient, star-seeking fanbase and the
hoards of critics convinced he's unfit for his job.
We'll see what he does with it.
After all, a splash move is one thing. It grabs headlines, recharges a fanbase and pairs
up two of the best players in the world. But that's not enough, and the mortgage this
puts on the Lakers' future demands more free agents and championships to pay for it.
The Lakers fooled themselves into thinking LeBron James was going to immediately
make them a title contender, but after a barrage of ill-advised roster moves around him,
they found out it's a thin line between being on the fringe of championship contention
and not even making the playoffs.
But now the Lakers have two stars, and two is exponentially better than one in star-
player math, and indeed you're going to start hearing people throw around the Lakers
as an impulse title favorite. In fact, Vegas already says they are the favorite.
From 37 wins to the title favorite with the addition of one great player and the
subtraction of three pretty good ones? That seems like a bit much. Yes, the Lakers are
going to be really good assuming LeBron and Davis stay healthy, but that's no sure
thing. Beyond that, we need to talk about all they gave up and what moves they might
still be able to make to truly turn this team into a championship contender.
Talk to a cross-section of people around the league, and you'll get a wide swath of
opinions as it pertains to Lonzo Ball and Brandon Ingram. Some scouts like one but not
the other. One GM told CBS Sports he's "never loved Ingram," while others believe he's
a star waiting to pop. Has Lonzo been a disappointment or just misused as a largely off-
ball player? I think the Pelicans are getting a really good player in Ball.
But next to LeBron neither Ball nor Ingram was going to fully develop, and in that sense,
the trade -- at least before you try to weigh the value of the future draft picks -- looks
good for the current players involved on both sides. That said, we just saw
a Warriors team with four All-NBA level players fall short of a title due in large part to a
severe lack of depth. Four stars weren't enough for them once a bit of bad luck kicked
in. Two stars won't be enough for the Lakers to win a title. The league has gotten too
good.
Of course, the Lakers aren't done acquiring players.
This is where this gets interesting.
Here's the gist of these details, which are confusing a lot of people right now: Had the
Lakers and Pelicans agreed to wait 30 days from the start of free agency (July 1) to
make this deal official, the Lakers could've had their full salary cap room of $32.5M
available to them in pursuing other free agents, because Davis's money wouldn't
technically be on the team yet.
By making the deal official on July 6th, which is the end of the moratorium and thus the
first day any free agent can officially sign with any team (even if the deal is agreed to
before then), Davis' money goes on the Lakers' books right away and leaves them with
only $27.7M in room. Davis also has a $4 million trade bonus, and if he doesn't agree to
waive that, the Lakers will also eat that on their books and thus their cap room will go
down to $23.7M.
The difference between $32.5M and $23.7M is significant. Per Marc Stein of the New
York Times, the Lakers plan to pursue Kemba Walker as their main free agent target.
Walker's first-year salary on a max deal would be $32.7 million. More or less, the same
would be true for any max free agent with less than 10 years experience -- which would
include Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler and Kyrie Irving, among others.
In other words, even if Davis were to waive his trade bonus, the $27.7 million in cap
room the Lakers would have would require a max free agent to take a $5 million pay
cut. If, on the other hand, Davis doesn't waive his trade bonus, those max free agents
would have to be willing to take a $9 million cut to come to the Lakers. Kemba Walker,
just for one example, would already be leaving just under $50 million of guaranteed
money on the table by leaving the Hornets in the first place.