Predicting potential habitats of tree

species in Japan and East Asia

under climate change

Tanaka, N.
(Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Japan)
 Prediction of climate change impacts on natural
forests and adaptation means

Species distribution models and climate change scenarios P

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Future habitats Current distribution o
e
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Identify vulnerable species and Monitoring of vegetation to
areas, as well as sustainable detect changes caused by
habitats climate warming Ma
od
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Propose scientifically-sound conservation means
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Change of protected areas, corridor for migration, assisting migration,
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&n
control of overpopulated sp.
Predicting potential habitats for plant species and climate
change assessment

Species distribution Current climatic data

Data 1-km Mesh data(JMA1996)
PRDB (Tanaka 2005)

Statistical Model

Future climate data

RCM20, MIROC
Predicting (2081-2100)
distribution
Validating model
Predicting potential
habitat in future
 Climatic data
Climatic variables:
　Kira’s warmth index (WI)
　Mean of daily minimum temp. in the coldest month（TMC ）
　Summer (May-Sept.) precipitation （PRS ）
　Winter (Dec.-March) precipitation (PRW )　

Climatic data (1953-1982):

　1-km Mesh climatic data (JMA 1996)
Future climatic data (2081-2100)
　RCM20 scenario (気象庁・気象研究所，2004)　　　
　MIROC scenario (東大・海洋研究開発機構・国立環境研，2004)
Current and future distribution of 4 climatic variables

Current climate
(a) 1-km Mesh climatic data　
Future climate (2081-2100)
(b) RCM20 Scenario (+2.8℃）
(c) MIROC Scenario （+4.3℃）

Climatic variables:　
WI: Warmth index (degree*month)
TMC: Minimum temp. in coldest month
(degree)
PRS: Summer precipitation (mm)
PRW: Winter precipitation (mm)
10 conifer species for climate change impact assessment
Species
a Ab ies sachalinensis
b Ab ies mariesii
c Ab ies veitchii
d Ab ies homolepis
e Ab ies firma
f Tsuga diversifolia
g Tsuga sieb oldii
h Pseudotsuga japonica
i Podocarpus macrophyllus
j Podocarpus nagi
Distributing climate zones
Cold and cool temperate
Cold temperate
Cold temperate
Cool temperate
Intermediate temperate
Cold temperate
Intermediate temperate
Warm temperate
Warm temperate, Subtropical
Warm temperate, Subtropical
d) Abies homolepis
 Actual distribution and
Prediction of habitats under current and future climates

d) Abies homolepis Current climate RCM20 MIROC

Empty habitat

No data
Presence
Absence

Refugia

Vulnerable areas
Non habitat
Marginal habitat
Suitable habitat

Suitable habitats：
WI<73.9, -12.2<TMC (equivalent to 42.7<WI), PRW<646, 963<PRS

Spatial resolution: 10-km grid

e) Abies firma
 Actual distribution and
Prediction of habitats under current and future climates

e) Abies firma Current climate

現在の気候 RCM20 MIROC

No data
Presence
在
不在
Absence

Non
非生育域 habitat
Marginal habitat
辺縁域
適域
Suitable habitat

Suitable habitats： 63.7<WI<119.0

Vulnerable species and regions with possible refugia after
climate change

Species Vulnerable regions Refugia

Ab ies mariesii NE Honshu Central Honshu

Ab ies veitchii Kii and Shikoku Central Honshu
Ab ies homolepis Kii and Shikoku Central Honshu
Tsuga diversifolia Kii and Shikoku Central Honshu
Pseudotsuga japonica Kii and Shikoku Non
Trial for predicting potential habitats of tree species in East Asia
Fagus hayatae

Scanning

Geo reference

Presence
detection

Resolution:
25×25 km2
 Climate change scenarios (WorldClim)

Mean temperature of coldest month Mean temperature of warmest month

Last glacial
maximum
(21,000 yrs BP)

Current

CCCMA a2a
(2080-2099)
 Climate change scenarios (WorldClim)

Precipitation of warmest quarter Precipitation of coldest quarter

Last glacial
maximum
(21,000 yrs BP)

Current

CCCMA a2a
(2080-2099)
 Projecting potential habitats of Fagus hayatae
under climate change
Actual distribution
Occurrence
probability

Last glacial maximum (21,000 years BP) CCCMA a2a (2070-2099)

 Constrains in climate change impact assessment in
East Asia

Different situation of research level among countries

‹ Taiwan: Researchers on this topic are developing

‹ Korea: Researchers on this topic are developing
‹ China: Accurate distribution data of plant species are
not yet found
‹ Mongolia: no information collected
 Thank you for your
attention

Co-workers: Matsui, T., Tsuyama, I., Nakao, K, Higa,

M., and Nakazono, E. (FFPRI)