Impact Assessment of Climate Change Considering

Uncertainties in Future Climate projections

-Impact on Paddy Rice Production in Asia-

Yuji Masutomi 1) ,
Kiyoshi Takahashi 2) ,
Hideo Harasawa 2) ,
and Yuzuru Matsuoka 3)
1): Center for Environmental Science in Saitama
2): National Institute for Environmental Studies
3): Kyoto University
 Introduction I
-Uncertainties in impact assessment-
Impact assessment

GCM Impact model

Climate projections (Crop model, Outputs
RCM water resource model, etc.)

(Ficsher et al., (2005))

(IPCC AR4)
 1 st Key Question
• How much impact does climate change have
if we comprehensively consider uncertainty in
future climate projections?
 Introduction II
- CO2 fertilization effect -
High CO2
concentration

Enhance photosynthesis Climate change

positive VS negative
 2 nd Key Question
• Is net effect of elevated CO2 concentration
positive or negative?
– In the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s
 Method
- How to take uncertainties into consideration?-
Climate projection • Step1
Climate scenario
Climate projection – Calculation of multi-impacts by
using multi-climate projections
Impact model • Step2
– Assuming that each impact is
Impact equally possible, we calculate
Output
Impact statistical metrics.

Equally possible
Ex. -5%, 5%, -15%,-10%,9%

1. Average Ave. = [-5+5+(-15)+(-10)+9]/ 5

= -3.2 [%]
2. Standard deviation Stdev. = 10 [%]
3. Probabilities Pr. of yield decrease = 60 [%]
 Climate projections (from PCMDI)
Country Model name A1B (18 GCMs) A2 (14 GCMs) B1 (17 GCMs)
Norway BCCR-BCM2.0 ○ ○
Canada CGCM3.1(T47) ○ ○ ○
Canada CGCM3.1(T63) ○ ○
France CNRM-CM3 ○ ○ ○
Germany ECHAM5/MPI-OM ○ ○ ○
Germany / Korea ECHO-G ○ ○ ○
China FGOALS-g1.0 ○ ○
USA GFDL-CM2.0 ○ ○ ○
USA GFDL-CM2.1 ○ ○ ○
USA GISS-AOM ○ ○
USA GISS-EH ○
USA GISS-ER ○ ○ ○
Russia INM-CM3.0 ○ ○ ○
France IPSL-CM4 ○ ○ ○
Japan MIROC3.2(hires) ○ ○
Japan MIROC3.2(medres) ○ ○ ○
Japan MRI-CGCM2.3.2 ○ ○ ○
UK UKMO-HadCM3 ○ ○ ○
UK UKMO-HadGEM1 ○ ○
 Crop model
• M-GAEZ model
– Based on Global Agro-Ecological Zone model (GAEZ-model)
• GAEZ-model was Developed by IIASA and FAO (Fischer et al.,
2002)
– was used for the assessment of global food security in IPCC AR4.
– is one of main tools used by FAO for analyses of land resources

Number of hunger (IPCC AR4)

FAO report

Manual of GAEZ
 M-GAEZ methodology
Actual Potential Agro
Water Soil CO2
Yield × × × ×
Yield = stress
-climatic
stress effect
stress

Potential Yield limited by Temperature and Radiation

： Photosynthesis (T,R) – Respiration (T)
Yield
Water ： Multiplier determined by soil water stress
stress

Agro
-climatic ： Multiplier related to constraints by insect, pest,
stress weed, etc.
Ex. Yearly warm region has high agro-climatic stress.
Soil
stress
： Crop can not grow in rock and sandy region

CO2
effect
： CO2 fertilization effect
 Validation of M-GAEZ
Comparison of yields between simulation and observation

Average yields for 1980s by Asian countries

Yearly variability in yields in 1980s in Asia
8000
3500

6000 3400
M-GAEZ [kg/ha]

Yield [kg/ha]
3300
4000
3200

2000 3100 FAO

M-GAEZ
3000
0 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990
Year
0 2000 4000 6000 8000
FAO [kg/ha]
Result I - without CO2 fertilization effect -
Result I - without CO2 fertilization effect -
Result II - with CO2 fertilization effect -
 Result III -Impact on Asia-

without CO2 fertilization effect with CO2 fertilization effect

1990s-2020s 1990s-2050s 1990s-2080s
A1B A2 B1 A1B A2 B1 A1B A2 B1
ACP without CO2 effect -5.2 -6.3 -4.2 -8.6 -9.4 -5.4 -16.8 -22.0 -8.4
ACP -3.3 -4.5 -2.5 -0.3 -0.9 0.2 -5.0 -9.9 -0.5
SDCP 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.9 3.7 3.3 7.2 8.4 4.8
Pr(CP <0) 83.3 100.0 76.5 44.4 57.1 52.9 72.2 85.7 47.1

• In the 2020s
– Little difference in average changes in production (ACPs) among SRES scenarios
– The probabilities of production decrease (Pr(CP<0)) are high for all SRES scenarios
• In the 2050s
– Positive and negative effects are in equilibrium
• In the 2080s
– Large difference in ACPs and Pr(CP<0))s among SRES scenarios.
• A2 has largest adverse effect although A2 has the largest CO2 fertilization effect
 Result IV – Impact by Countries -
2020s ( vs. 1990s) 2050s ( vs. 1990s) 2080s ( vs. 1990s)
Country A1B A2 B1 A1B A2 B1 A1B A2 B1
Bangladesh -2.8 -6.9 -3.0 -4.2 -7.8 -3.7 -9.1 -14.5 -4.1
Brunei Darussalam 0.2 -0.3 0.0 5.6 7.1 4.3 8.3 6.4 5.2
Bhutan 1.7 -1.4 2.6 6.5 15.8 3.8 -12.9 -8.3 5.7
China -5.8 -7.1 -3.4 -5.2 -3.8 -2.1 -10.0 -13.1 -5.7
Hong Kong -4.5 -3.0 -1.9 5.7 11.4 1.9 -0.7 -2.0 7.5
Indonesia -0.3 -2.9 -1.5 5.5 3.7 1.9 4.2 -3.7 3.7
India -4.2 -4.5 -3.4 -0.5 -0.1 0.8 -3.0 -4.9 0.6
Cambodia -2.8 -8.0 -3.3 -0.5 -3.2 0.0 -24.7 -43.2 -0.5
S Korea 0.8 -1.0 2.3 5.7 6.0 2.7 2.5 -6.0 8.2
Laos -3.6 -2.5 -1.9 3.4 0.7 1.3 4.0 -0.6 2.0
Myanmar -1.2 -2.3 -1.1 1.6 0.1 1.2 -0.5 -4.0 1.1
Malaysia 0.4 -1.7 0.7 6.1 5.9 4.3 8.0 3.4 6.4
Nepal -7.7 -7.7 -6.1 -20.7 -17.7 -10.4 -34.6 -38.7 -18.7
Pakistan 1.2 0.7 2.3 7.9 9.0 5.8 7.7 6.8 8.1
Philippines -2.1 -5.1 -5.0 2.4 -4.7 -1.9 3.3 -3.4 -1.9
N Korea 5.6 5.9 7.0 22.8 20.6 14.2 26.0 22.6 22.2
Singapore 1.4 -1.5 0.0 5.6 7.6 3.3 2.2 -6.0 2.6
Thailand -2.5 -2.6 -1.7 -0.2 -2.3 1.2 -8.2 -16.2 -0.4
East Timor -3.7 -10.1 -8.1 0.9 -6.3 -1.5 1.6 -4.4 1.6
Vietnam -3.7 -2.2 -2.2 2.3 0.6 0.4 -11.7 -20.7 -1.0
Japan 3.6 0.0 2.1 3.0 3.2 4.2 -2.7 -8.0 5.3
Sri Lanka -1.3 3.1 3.0 7.8 3.1 7.2 6.1 4.1 8.8
Taiwan 4.6 7.9 5.1 24.7 28.3 15.1 32.1 38.2 18.6

Most countries in east Asia have negative impact in SRES A2

 Summary of the results
• Key questions
– How much impact does climate change have if we comprehensively consider
uncertainty in future climate?

– Is net effect of elevated CO2 concentration positive or negative?

• Our answer
– Net effect of elevated CO2 concentration in comprehensive consideration of
future climate projections is negative in the 2020s and 2080s, and nearly zero
in the 2050s.
– Most countries in east Asia have negative impact in the 2080s in SRES A2

• Suggestions
– It is necessary to take immediate adaptive actions in the near future,
regardless of socio-economic development.
• Because the probabilities of production decrease are high for all SRES scenarios
in the 2020s
– The reduction of CO2 emission in the long term has a large potential to
mitigate negative changes.
• Large difference in change in production among SRES scenarios in the 2080s
• High CO2 concentration scenario, A2, has largest adverse effect in the 2080s,
while low CO2 concentration scenario, B1, has smallest adverse effect in the
2080s.
Thank you for your attention

yuji.masutomi@gmail.com