Hazards and Threats

Hazards Threats Technical failures
Risk Assessment
3. Hazards and Threats
Stein Haugen Marvin Rausand

stein.haugen@ntnu.no marvin.rausand@ntnu.no
RAMS Group
Department of Production and Quality Engineering
NTNU
(Version 0.1)
S. Haugen & M. Rausand (RAMS Group) Risk Assessment (Version 0.1) 1 / 21

M ARVIN R AUSAND
Risk Assessment
Theory, Methods, and Applications
Slides related to the book

Risk Assessment
Theory, Methods, and Applications
Wiley, 2011
STATISTICS IN PRACTICE
Homepage of the book:

http://www.ntnu.edu/ross/
books/risk

Hazard
Z Hazard: A source of danger that may cause harm to an asset.
A hazard is:
I A property, a situation, or a state.
I Not an event but a prerequisite for the
occurrence of a hazardous event..
I Often, but not always, related to energy of some
kind.

Energy sources
I Acoustic I Kinetic (rotational)

I Atmospheric I Magnetic
I Chemical I Mechanical
I Corrosive I Nuclear
I Electrical I Patogenic
I Electromagnetic I Pneumatic
I Explosice, pyrophoric I Potential
I Flammable I Pressure
I Gravitational I Thermal
I Hydraulic I Toxic
I Kinetic (linear)
Triggering event
Z Triggering event: An event or condition that is required for a hazard to

give rise to an accident.
I Triggering events and hazardous events may be the same.
I Triggering events may also be interpreted as events that cause a
hazardous event.
I Active failures: Events that trigger unwanted events.

I Latent conditions: Not triggers, but conditions that may increase the
probability of active failures.

Classification of hazards
I Natural hazards
• Floods, earthquakes, tornados, tsunamis, lightning
I Technological Hazards
• Industrial facilities, structures, transportation systems, consumer
products, pesticides, pharmaceuticals
I Organizational hazards
• Long working hours, inadequate competence
I Social hazards
• Assault, war, sabotage, communicable disease
I Behavioral hazards
• Drug abuse, alcohol, smoking, and so on
Classification of hazards
I Types of technological hazards

• Mechanical, electrical, radiation, . . .
I What are the effects (type of harm)?

• Cancer, suffocation, pollution, burn, . . .
I Where is the origin of the hazard?

• Endogenous – “inside” the system
• Exogenous – “outside” the system

Specific hazards
I Mechanical hazards I Dangerous materials

• Kinetic energy • Explosive
• Acceleration or retardation • Oxidizing
• Sharp edges/points • Flammable
• Potential energy • Toxic
• High pressure • Corrosive
• Vacuum • Carcinogenic
• Moving parts I Electrical hazards
• Rotating equipment • Electromagnetic
• Reciprocating equipment • Electrostatic
• Stability/toppling problems • Short circuit
• Degradation of materials • Overload
• Thermal radiation
I . . . and so on
Hazard
Hazard
Crane
Exposed
to risk

Hazardous event
Rupture
Accidental event
(i.e., the first significant
deviation from the
normal situation)
Crane
Exposed
to risk

Accident
Crane
Accident
(i.e., damage to people,
the environment and/or
material assets)

Threat
Z Threat: Anything that might exploit a vulnerability.

I Any potential cause of an incident can be considered a threat
I Closely related to hazard
I A threat is a hazard, but a hazard need not be a threat
Z Threat agent: A person, organization, thing, or entity that acts, or has

the power to act, to cause, carry, transmit, or support a threat.
I Who could want to exploit vulnerabilities, and how they might use
them against the system
I Intention, capacity, and opportunity

Information security concepts
I Availability: The accessibility of systems, programs, services, and

information when needed and without undue delay
I Confidentiality: The sensitivity of information or assets to
unauthorized disclosure, recorded as classification or designation, each
of which implies a degree of ‘loss’ should unauthorized disclosure occur
I Integrity: The accuracy and completeness of information and assets
and the authencity of transactions
I Compromise: Unauthorized disclosure, destruction, removal,
modification or interruption.

Vulnerability
Z Vulnerability: A weakness of an asset or group of assets that can be

exploited by one or more threat agents, for example, to gain access to the
asset and subsequent destruction, modification, theft, and so on, of the
asset or parts of the asset.
I The weaknesses may be physical, technical, operational, and

organizational.

Technical failure
Z Failure: The termination of the ability of an idea to perform a required

function.
I In other words: A failure is the non-fulfillment of a functional (or
performance) requirement.
Example
Consider a water pump:
I A required function of the pump is to “pump water.
I The functional requirement related to this function is that the output
of water should be between 100 and 110 liters of water per minute.
I The pump has failed if the output of water is outside this interval.

Failure mode
Z Failure mode: The effect by which a failure is observed on a failed item.

I A failure mode is a state and specifies the actual deviation from the
performance requirements of the item.
This definition is not totally clear, but a failure mode should tell us in which
way an item is no longer able to fulfill a required function.

General failure modes
I Failure during operation

I Failure to operate at a prescribed time
I Failure to cease operation at a prescribed time
I Premature (spurious) operation

Failure modes
Example: Failure modes of a water tap
I Fail to open (on demand)

I Fail to close (on demand)
I Cannot fully close
I Leakage through (dripping)
I Leakage out (from tap seals)
I Too high temperature
I Too low temperature
I . . . and so on

Failure mechanism
Z Failure mechanism: A physical, chemical, or other process that leads to

failure.
Examples of failure mechanisms include

I Corrosion
I Erosion
I Fatigue

Failure classification
According to cause of failure
I Primary failure: Caused by natural aging that occurs under conditions

within the design envelope of the item.
I Secondary failure: Caused by excessive stresses outside the design
envelope of the item.
I Command fault: A failure caused by an improper control signal or
noise (sometime referred to as a transient failure).

Failure classification
According to degree of failure (from OREDA)
I Critical: A failure that causes immediate and complete loss of the

system’s capability of providing its output.
I Degraded: A failure that is not critical but that prevents the system
from providing its output within specifications.
I Incipient: A failure that does not immediately cause loss of a system’s
capability of providing its output, but which, if not attended to, could
result in a critical or degraded failure in the near future.

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Stein Haugen Marvin Rausand

S. Haugen & M. Rausand (RAMS Group) Risk Assessment (Version 0.1) 1 / 21

Slides related to the book

Homepage of the book:

S. Haugen & M. Rausand (RAMS Group) Risk Assessment (Version 0.1) 2 / 21

Z Hazard: A source of danger that may cause harm to an asset.

S. Haugen & M. Rausand (RAMS Group) Risk Assessment (Version 0.1) 3 / 21

I Acoustic I Kinetic (rotational)

Z Triggering event: An event or condition that is required for a hazard to

I Active failures: Events that trigger unwanted events.

S. Haugen & M. Rausand (RAMS Group) Risk Assessment (Version 0.1) 5 / 21

I Types of technological hazards

I What are the effects (type of harm)?

I Where is the origin of the hazard?

S. Haugen & M. Rausand (RAMS Group) Risk Assessment (Version 0.1) 7 / 21

I Mechanical hazards I Dangerous materials

S. Haugen & M. Rausand (RAMS Group) Risk Assessment (Version 0.1) 9 / 21

S. Haugen & M. Rausand (RAMS Group) Risk Assessment (Version 0.1) 10 / 21

S. Haugen & M. Rausand (RAMS Group) Risk Assessment (Version 0.1) 11 / 21

Z Threat: Anything that might exploit a vulnerability.

Z Threat agent: A person, organization, thing, or entity that acts, or has

S. Haugen & M. Rausand (RAMS Group) Risk Assessment (Version 0.1) 12 / 21

Information security concepts

I Availability: The accessibility of systems, programs, services, and

S. Haugen & M. Rausand (RAMS Group) Risk Assessment (Version 0.1) 13 / 21

Z Vulnerability: A weakness of an asset or group of assets that can be

I The weaknesses may be physical, technical, operational, and

S. Haugen & M. Rausand (RAMS Group) Risk Assessment (Version 0.1) 14 / 21

Z Failure: The termination of the ability of an idea to perform a required

S. Haugen & M. Rausand (RAMS Group) Risk Assessment (Version 0.1) 15 / 21

Z Failure mode: The effect by which a failure is observed on a failed item.

S. Haugen & M. Rausand (RAMS Group) Risk Assessment (Version 0.1) 16 / 21

General failure modes

I Failure during operation

S. Haugen & M. Rausand (RAMS Group) Risk Assessment (Version 0.1) 17 / 21

I Fail to open (on demand)

S. Haugen & M. Rausand (RAMS Group) Risk Assessment (Version 0.1) 18 / 21

Z Failure mechanism: A physical, chemical, or other process that leads to

Examples of failure mechanisms include

S. Haugen & M. Rausand (RAMS Group) Risk Assessment (Version 0.1) 19 / 21

I Primary failure: Caused by natural aging that occurs under conditions

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I Critical: A failure that causes immediate and complete loss of the

S. Haugen & M. Rausand (RAMS Group) Risk Assessment (Version 0.1) 21 / 21

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