Influence on Rocket Fall Points Distribution
Due to Random Wind
Jun Yao, Xin Wang, Junmiao Li
Shenyang Ligong University
Shenyang , China
Abstract—Random wind is one of the important factors
causing rocket fall points distribution. For the large and complex
system, it is difficult to analyze the reliability using the analytic
methods, but the computer simulation is an effective way. In this
paper, simulation for flight control system is studied in detail by
considering wind as typical random process. The engineered
model of wind is established and randomized. While establishing
the dynamics equations of the rocket’s passive trajectory,
theoretic analysis has been carried out using the traditional
statistical analysis approach-Monte-Carlo method in order to
simulate fall points distribution and predict rocket impact point
under random wind. Through simulation, the effect results of all
parameters characterizing the nature of wind on rocket fall
points distribution are obtained and effect of wind on the rocket
fall points distribution is analyzed effectively. This provides the
experiment data for increasing the firing accuracy of the rocket
in order to decrease the fall points distribution of the rocket and
correct trajectory. The results of this paper provide some
theoretic reference for trajectory design．
Index Terms—Monte-Carlo method, shell distribution,
random wind ,rocket
I. INTRODUCTION
Wind is one of the important natural environment factors
causing rocket flight performance. It is still a complicated issue
that the wind has effect on the range and its lateral range of the
Warhead. The air flow has been affected by season, day and
night, terrain, height and latitude, which have some
randomness. For rockets launched from static ground, rocket
velocity in the initial trajectory is low, so wind speed affects
significantly. In the passive trajectory, because the high-altitude
winds is greater (up to 60 m / s), influence on fall points
distribution due to random wind can not be ignored too[1-2].
How to consider and reflect the influence on rocket fall points
distribution is a major problem.
Monte-Carlo method can be used to solve these problems.
Influence on rocket fall points distribution is considered due to
this uncertainty of the wind, the random wind. The engineered
model of wind is established and randomized. Objective is to
carry out simulation of rocket fall points distribution using
Monte-Carlo method instead of shooting experiment.
Under the influence of the random wind, mean and variance
in the fall points distribution simulation results are obtained to
reflect shooting distribution features in the actual process.
978-1-4244-2800-7/09/$25.00 ©2009 IEEE
Objective is to analyze influence on rocket fall points
distribution due to the random wind.
II. SIMULATION METHOD OF ROCKET FALL POINTS
DISTRIBUTION USING MONTE-CARLO METHOD
The method of carry out simulation of rocket weapon
system fall points distribution using the classic statistical test –
Monte-Carlo method[3-4]is: usually based on the mean and
variance of the random factors that impact fall points
distribution of rocket weapon system, a pseudo-random
sequence is obtained using random number generator. And then
calculate it in the launch and flight dynamics equations. At last
dealing with the final statistics results of the calculation, more
precise simulation results of fall points distribution are
obtained. The concrete simulation steps are:
(1) In accordance with the distribution types and statistical
properties, produce pseudo-random number sequences in line
with the types of distribution;
(2) Simulating calculate the random wind using the pseudo-
random number sequences and structural parameters of other
weapons systems to provide wind data;
(3) According to the initial parameters, aerodynamic
parameters and simulation results from step(2), carry out the
ballistic trajectory calculation of rocket weapon system and
obtain a ballistic curve and the fall points coordinate of
rocket(x, y, z);
(4) Repeat step (1), (2), (3) times(is the calculation time
that satisfies Monte-Carlo simulation precision), so as to get
groups fall points data;
(5) Calculate groups fall points data from step(4). Obtain
the mean and variance of distance between the real fall points
position and the ideal fall points position without wind
disturbance using mathematical statistics method to evaluate
fall points distribution.
III. RANDOM WIND MATHEMATICAL MODEL
The ballistic parameters are expressed with vector as [4]:
As the impact of wind is complex, the vertical wind and
horizontal wind are mainly considered and they are deemed to
be subject to the normal distribution in practical work.
According to theoretical research and experimental test, the
wind covariance function is obtained[5]:
The vertical wind:
1860 ICIEA 2009
 vτ
σwL 1 (m/s)

, Sx(ω ) =
− L
Kx (τ ) = σ e2 5
w
vπ L2
Wx

1+ω 2 2 Wy
4
v
（1） 3

The horizontal wind: 1

L2
vτ vτ 1 + 3ω 2
2

Ky(τ ) = σ w2 (1 − )e − ,
2
σ L v
-1
L
Sy (ω ) = w
2L 2vπ L 2
(1 + ω 2 2 ) 2 -2

v
（2） -3

-4

From （1）and（2）, simulation model of wind can be -5

written as: 0 10 20 30 40 50 60

t(s)

Figure 1. Simulation of Random Winds

V 2V
⎧ W x +
L
Wx =
L
ξ X

⎪ dV k
= − c xα
ρ sV ²
− g sin θ
⎪ W 1 +
V V （3） ⎧ dt 2m
⎨ L
W 1 = ( 3 − 1)
L
ξ y ⎪ dθ
=
1
[ c αyα
ρ sV ²
α − c xα
ρV 2 s
(θ − δ α ) − g cos θ ]
⎪ ⎪ dt V k 2m 2m
V V 3V ⎪
⎪⎩ W y +
L
W 1 +
L
Wy =
L
ξ y
⎪
dψ
=
1
[c β
ρ sV ²
β + c xα
ρ sV ²
(ψ − ϕ α )cos δ α ]
dt V k cos θ zα 2 m 2m
⎪
⎪ dδ
= ω1
Where Kx (τ ) and Ky(τ ) are covariance function for ⎪ dt
vertical and horizontal random wind , Sx (ω ) and Sy (ω ) are ⎪ d ω 1 C ω x ω 2 cos δ
= + m αz
ρ slV ²
α + m zω z
ρ Vsl ²
ω 1 + m Zβω x
ρV 2 sl
α
density of the spectrum for the vertical and horizontal random ⎪ dt A 2A A 2A
wind, L is change cycle of the simulation wind, W 1 is the ⎪ dϕ
= ω2
⎪ dt
transition variable for calculating the wind field model, V is
⎪ dω 2 Cω x ω 1 ρ slV ² ρ Vsl ² ρV 2 sl
movement speed of spill, W x is vertical wind speed, W y is ⎪ =− + m βy
ω
β + myy ω 2 + m αω x
β
⎨
y
dt A cos δ 2A A 2A
horizontal wind speed, ξ x and ξ y are the random variables ⎪ dγ
= ω x − ω 2 sin δ
2 ⎪ dt
subject to normal distribution N (0, σ w ), σ w is variance of
⎪ dω x
= mx
ρ slV ²
+ m ωx x
ρ Vsl ²
ωx
wind speed. (Parameters σ w and L can be obtained according ⎪ dt 2C C
to the actual situation of shooting range.) ⎪ dx c
= V k cos θ cos ϕ
⎪ dt
Taking one moment of random wind as an example, σ w ⎪ dy c
in (3) is 5 m/s. Simulation results of random winds are shown ⎪ = V k sin θ
dt (4)
as Figure 1. ⎪ dz
⎪ = −V k cos θ sin ψ
IV. ROCKET DYNAMICS MODEL OF PASSIVE PHASE dt
⎪ α = δ − δα
Rocket dynamics motion model of six freedom degrees ⎪
β = ϕ cos δ
is(4)[5]. ⎪⎩
αk = δ − θ
β k = ( ϕ − ψ ) cos δ

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 fluctuates little as θ and δ are 60 °. With the influence of σ x
c xα and σ y , E x changes obviously, especially when θ and δ are
Where ρ is density of the air, V is airspeed, ，
45 ° and 60 °. D x is more sensitive to W x , W y , W z , σ x
c αyα β
， c zα are the coefficients of resistance ,lift and lateral
and σ y , especially disturbed by σ x and σ y . When θ and
α ωz β ωy ωx
mz , mz , m y , m y , m x , m x , m Zβω x , m δ are 45 ° and 60 °, D x is very sensitive to σ y .δ
αω x
force, y are
moment coefficients, m is quality of the rocket, S is the area,
is gravity acceleration, l is length of rocket, A is the
equatorial moment of inertia, C is pole moment of inertia, V k
is flying speed of the rocket, θ is inclination angle, ψ is the
trajectory angle, ϕ is yaw angle, δ is elevation angle, γ is
twist angle, α is attack angle, β is sideslip angle, ω 1 , ω 2

are turnover angular velocity and

ω x is spin angle velocity.

V. SIMULATION EXAMPLE
Considering (3) and (4), using Monte-Carlo simulation
techniques, generate a random factors value based on regular
random number generating algorithms. Using this group of Statistical Results
value and the initial conditions, fall points position
parameters( xi , y i , z i )can be obtained with wind
interference. Interference samples are carried out times based
on the above ideas and fall points positions can be derived.
Obtain the mean and variance of distance between the real fall Figure 2. Fall points Distribution with Random Wind
points position and the ideal fall points position without wind
disturbance using mathematical statistics method to evaluate TABLE I. SEVERAL GROUPS OF SIMULATION RESULTS OF
fall points distribution.
Θ、δ=30°
The relevant parameters in (4) are as follows:
g = 9.81m/s 2 , ρ = 1.23kg/m3 , m x = 0.002 ,
C xα = 0.771- 3.09 × 10 - 4 V(M > 1.2 ) , m yβ = − 0.0015 , Wx Wy Wz σx σy Ex Dx
m ωx x = −0.043 , A = 4.9kg ⋅ m 2 , C = 0.484kg ⋅ m 2 , （m/s） （m/s） （m/s） （m/s） （m/s） （m） （m）
s = 0.014m 2 , l = 1.46 m , m = 39kg , V 0 = 1200 m/s . 5 5 5 5 5 22.23 194.92
10 5 5 5 5 24.57 153.98
Based on values of the above relevant parameters, a group
5 10 5 5 5 27.37 242.85
of simulation results are shown in Figure 2. 5 5 10 5 5 22.94 129.78
The simulation model can demonstrate the motion of 5 5 5 10 5 37.72 464.86
rockets dynamic and indicate fall points coordinate of rocket 5 5 5 5 10 31.92 400.86
(x, y, z). Fall points positions of rocket then are marked on the
round target. After n shootings (n here for 20), the mean and
variance of the distance between each fall points and bull's- TABLE II. SEVERAL GROUPS OF SIMULATION RESULTS OF
eye can be calculated.
Θ、δ=45°
Through a large number of simulation results, one can show
that the wind has great impact on trajectory of rocket. Wx Wy Wz σx σy Ex Dx
Especially influence on trajectory direction error due to the
（m/s） （m/s） （m/s） （m/s） （m/s） （m） （m）
lateral direction of the wind is more significant. 5 5 5 5 5 31.44 317.72
10 5 5 5 5 28.41 253.65
VI. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS 5 10 5 5 5 23.49 149.22
After several groups of simulation, under the conditions of 5 5 10 5 5 22.20 113.83
θ and δ are 30 °, 45 ° and 60 °, several groups of simulation 5 5 5 10 5 37.49 385.28
5 5 5 5 10 44.77 522.74
results can be obtained( see Table 1).
From Table 1, one can see that influence on E x and D x
Based on the rocket dynamics model and wind field model,
due to σ x , σ y is some obvious. Under the influence of W x , using Monte-Carlo simulation technology fall points of rockets
Wy and W z , E x fluctuates a little as θ and δ are 45°and are predicted. Under natural conditions W x , W y , W z , σ x

1862
and σ y can be measured. Then put the measured values enter This research methods and simulation analysis show that
the wind is one of the important factors causing rocket flight
simulation process and E x and D x are obtained to research performance, especially for long-range rockets. In design of the
the impact of the wind on fall points distribution. One can see flight control system, one should give full consideration to the
how all that parameters characterizing the nature of the wind impact of the wind on fall points of rockets in order to increase
affect the rocket firing accuracy. Then, through ballistics rocket firing accuracy and reduce fall points distribution. It is
correcting theory amend the trajectory of rocket in order to get of practical significance to improve the performance of new
the desired results. weapons, shorten the development cycle, reduce consumption
of ammunition and enhance economic efficiency that fall points
TABLE III. SEVERAL GROUPS OF SIMULATION RESULTS OF distribution is predicted through simulation before rocket is
launched to correct fall points.
Θ、δ=60°
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Wx Wy Wz σx σy Ex Dx
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5 5 5 5 5 27.33 260.71 ADA356635/XAB,1998.
10 5 5 5 5 26.85 168.92 [3] Wittwer, J.W.,"Monte Carlo Simulation Basics," From Vertex42.com,
5 10 5 5 5 28.24 191.08 June 1, 2004, Monte Carlo Simulation Basics.
5 5 10 5 5 24.40 319.03 [4] Isabel Beichl, Francis Sullivan, "Monte Carlo Methods," Computing in
5 5 5 10 5 37.42 496.12 Science & Engineering, vol. 8, no. 2, March/April 2006, pp. 7-8.
5 5 5 5 10 46.55 601.08 [5] A.A.Dmitrievcke, L.N.Lecenko, S.S.Bogods,“External ballistics,”
Moscow: Machine construction ,1991.(in Russian)

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