Chapter 6

Predicting uptime
of turbomachinery

As the preceding chapters showed, numerical and statistical methods can

be used to identify areas of vulnerability before the analyst is actually
confronted by the hardware and its potential problems. A similar system-
atic reliability evaluation of major turbomachinery and centrifugal pump
components, for example, can warn of potential problems in future or
existing installations.
This chapter presents structured approaches to predicting the reliability
of such major turbomachines as centrifugal compressors and steam tur-
bines, as well as general purpose equipment such as centrifugal pumps.
The major turbomachinery train shown in Figure 6-1 features a steam
turbine driving a low-pressure (LP) and a high-pressure (HP) turbocom-
pressor.
A procedure and a set of curves can be developed to coordinate the
major factors influencing reliability of this type of equipment. These fac-
tors are type of machine, unit size, speed, pressures and temperatures,
coupling effects, number of start–stop cycles, starting cycle time, char-
acteristics of supports, foundation, piping, and the effects of operating
practices and maintenance provisions.
Reliability factors were established to improve the accuracy of equip-
ment evaluations, and to make sure a maximum number of remedies can
be considered quickly. Reliability factor curves presented in the following
pages are based on personal experience and extensive use of references.
Such curves can never be highly accurate, and they can never cover all
possible types of installation. Common sense must be used in their appli-
cation. The curves are given more to outline a systematic procedure than
to provide numbers ready for use.

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