,126 THEORETICALPHoBABILITYDISTRIBUTIONS
EXEBCISES 127
sions in situations where the necessary underlying assumptions of each of these
distributions are valid.
EXERCISES
4.1 Which of the following random variables are binomially distributed and
which are not? Why? 4.4
(a) The number of heads in 10 flips of an unfair coin.
(b) The number of green chips drawn from a bowl containing l2 green
chips and 8 blue chips il l0 chips are drawn out one at a time, the
color noted, and the chip discarded.
(c) The number of green chips drawn from a bag in l0 draws if the
chips are drawn with replacement and the bag contains five green,
two blue, and three red chips.
(d) The number of defective parts in a sample of size 20 drawn from a
lot of 10,000 parts known to contain l09o defectives.
(e) The number of Democrats placed on a subcommittee of size three
selected randomly from a committee of l0 congressmen, five Re-
publicans, and five Democrats.
(f) The volume of soft drink dispensed by an automatic machine.
(g) Ths number of defects in a roll of toilet tissue.
(h) The number of engines that fail on a four-engine bomber where the
probability of a single engine failure is lgo.
4.2 A bowl contains 100 chips. Fifty are blue, 15 are green, l0 are red, and
25 are yellow, Two chips are drawn out with replacement.
(a) Draw the probability tree and use it to compute the probability of
exactly one green chip.
(b) Find the probability of exactly one green chip in the binomial table.
(c) Use the binomial equation to compute the probability of exactly one
, green chip.
4.3 Parts produced by a particular manufacturing process are stored in a
Iarge warehouse prior to shipment. The process produces good parts
9590 of the time and defectlve parts 590 of the time. There are several
4.5
thousand parts currently in inventory.
(a) If an inspector exarnines six parts chosen randomly from the inven-
tory, what is the probability that she will find exactly four defective
parts? Does your answer when computed using the binomial equa-
tion agree with your answer taken from the tabulated mass function
in Appendix I? Why?
(b) What is the probability that two or fewer parts will be defective?
(c) What is the probability that more rhan three parts will be good?
(d) What is the probability that there will be more than two but no
more than four defectives in the sample?
(e) If the inspector ivere sampling consecut¡ve parts as they came out
of the process rather than from those stored in inventory, how might
your afproach to the questions above change? Why?
A pottery manufacturer has just sent a shiprnent of 5000 items to a
distributor. The distributor always checks a small sample of I00 items
to assure himself of the quality of the shipment. The manufacturer real-
izes that l09o of the shipment is defective and that the shipment will be
sent back if more than three items in the sample are defective.
(a) can the binomial disribution be used to compute the probability
of more than three delective items?
(b) What probability would the binomial distribution give for more
than three defective?
(c) "Consumer's risk" is defined as the probability that the consumer
(in fhis case, the distribufor) will accept goods that are of unaccept_
able quality. If the actual proportion of defective items is l5go, the
sample size is 20, and the shipment is accepted if fewer than two
defectives are found in the sample, what is the level of consumer's
risk? Assume that l59o is unacceptable to the distributor,
(d) "Producer's risk" is the probabitity that the producer (in this case,
the manufacturer) will have a shipment rejected by the distributor
when the level of quality is acceptable. If the actual proportion of
defective items is 390, the sample size is 50,,and the shipment is
rejected if four or more defectives are found in the sample, what is
the level of producer's risk? Assume that 3go is acceptable to the
distributor.
(e) Assuming that production of pottery cannot be done perfectly so
that some defective iterns will be included in every shipment, can
you think of a perfect sampling plan, one that discriminates per_
fectly between acceptable shipments and unacceptable shipments?
Such a plan (sample size and acceptance number) would result in
consumer's and producer's risk of zero.
A ski resort has four snowmobiles that the ski patrol uses. Each ma-
chine starts in the morning 90go of the time without any help from the
resort mechanic. If all four machines start, the mechanic can get an
extra hour of sleep in the morning. If any of the machines will not start,
the mechanic loses out on the extra hour of sleep and must spend 15
minutes starting each machine that would not start, If only óne machine
rvill not start, the mechanic will get it going in 15 minutes and spend
the other 45 minutes drinking coffee. , .
: 128 THEoREToqL PRoBABILITY olsrnlguTloNs
' (a) What is the probability that the mechanic can sleep in for an hour?
,, (b) What is the probability that the mechanic will lose the extra hour
and have only 15 minutes for coffee?
(c) What is the probability that the mechanic will drink coffee for half
an hour?
4.6 An opaque bowl contains one blue ball and one white ball, identical in
all respects except for color. You reach into the bowl and select one ball,
note the color, and then return the ball to the bowl. This experiment is
repeated ten times.
(a) What is the probability of exactly one btue ball being drawn from
the bowl in the l0 trials?
(b) What is the probability of five blue or less?
(c) What is the probability of at least six blue?
(d) What is the probability of no more than three white?
(e) Assume that you will receive some unknown payoff Z for each blue
ball that is drawn but receive nothing for drawing a white ball.
What is your expected gain per game (10 draws from the bowl)?
4.7 The AA Canvas Products Company makes tents in which the number
of flaws in the material per tent is Poisson-distributed with a mean of
two Ber tfnt.
(a) What is the probability that a camp€r can buy a tent from AA with
no flaws?
(b) Suppose that the camper has a friend who brags that his tent has
only two flaws. What is the probability that the camper can pur-
chase an AA tent that will have fewer flaws than his friend's tent?
4.8 A publisher who prints textbooks has found that on the average one
book in every 100 will be missing pages or have some other defect. The
publisher has shipped 1000 books with l0 defective to a school district
rhat will take a sample of I00 books to examine. If the school district
finds more than two defective books in their sample, they will send the
shipment back.
(a) If the binomial distribution is used, what is the probability that rhe
shipment will be returned to the publisher?
(b) lf the Poisson distribution is used, what is the probability tlrat the
shipment will be returned to the publishér?
(c) Is the diffetence between your answers for parts (a) and (b) impor-
tant? Why?
4.g
The arrival of trucks at a freight dock is Poisson-distributed with a
mean of eight per hour. The supervisor on the dock wants to let part of
his crew leave for an hour so that they can attend a union meeting. If
, more lhan 12 trucks arrive at the dock, a partial crew will not be able
EXERoISES 129
to unload them in a reasonable amount of time. If less than six trucks
arrive at the dock, the crew members will be annoyed if the supervisor
made them all miss the union meeting.
(a) What are the chances that more than 12 trucks will arrive at the
dock in an hour? '
(b) If the supervisor makes the whole crew miss the union meeting,
what is the probablity that less than six trucks will arrive at the dock
in an hour?
4.10 The number of people who approach an information desk in a local
department store is Poisson-distributed with a mean of five per 30-
minute period.
(a) If the mean number of people is five, is the probability of more
than five equal tó the probability of less than five?
(b) What is the probability that l0 people will come to the desk in 30
minutes?
(c) What is the probability that no one will come to the desk in 30
minutes?
(d) For any half hour period, what number of people is most likely to
visit the desk?
4.ll For a normally distributed random variable,
(a) What is the probability that Z will be less than -2 or greater than
J-)'l
(b) Z will be less than or equal to what value 5090 of the time?
(c) What is the probability that Z will be smaller than + l?
(d) What is the probability that Z will be negative but greater than
- 1.5?
(e) What is the"'probability that Z equals zero?
(f) If P(-C < Z < C): 0.3400, what is C?
4.12 An ambulance service is going to replace some of its units with new
- and better equipped vehicles. The two models under consideration cost
the same to purchase and operate, and have the same medical equip-
ment, but differ in the time required to get to the hospital, After taking
into consideration the terrain of the city and the perforrnance of each
model, the owner of the service estimates that model X would get to
the hospital in 23 minutes on the average with a standard deviation of
8 minutes. Model f would get to the hospital in 25 minutes on the
average with a standard deviation of 2 minutes. Assume that the trip
times are normally distributed.
(a) Which model would you recommend to the owner? Why?
(b) Suppose it is exrremely important for the ambulance to make it to
 I30 THEoRET}CALPEoBABILITYDISTRIBUTIoNS
EXERCISES f31

the hospital in 26 minutes or less, What proportion of trips in
model X would require more than 26 miqutes? In model fZ
4.13 The weight of live beef coming into a packing plant is normally distrib-
uted with a mean of 700 pounds and a standard deviation of 75
pounds. What is the probabiliry that a particular steer will weigh be-
tween 65b and 725 pounds?
4.14 The EPA has performed mileage ratings on several thousand cars. The
gas mileage of the automobiles was found to be normally distributed
with a mean of 2l miles per gallon and a standard deviation of 3 miles
per gallon. Cas mileage under l5 miles per gallon was considerd terri_
ble. Mileage between l5 and 23 miles per gallon was considered accepr-
able. Mileage over 23 miles per gallon was considered exceptional. use
the EPA figures to compute the proportion of cars falling into the
three categories. If the test included 10,000 cars, how ntany would you
expect to exceed 30 miles per gallon?
4.15 A government inspector in a distillery must constantly check the vol-
ume of liquor in bottles to make certain they conform to the figures
stated on the labels. The volume of bourbon in a fifth (four-fifths of
a quart) should be 25,6 ounces. The actual volume dispensed by the ,&iii
.lr. .
distillery is normally distributed with a mean of 26 ounces and a vari- a:.i
ance of 0.16. rt:
*.,
(a) What percentage of the fifths are filled below the stated volume? ,,,1,,r;
(b) During every workday the inspector selects three fifths at random !i::l
;il
from the day's production. If two or more of these are below 25.6 ;¡.
ounces, the inspector issues a citation and the distillery must pay 3{:
a fine. What is the probabilíry that the citation will be issued? 1i...
;i.l
4.16 Political science students conducting an opinion poll have found that
i.+'.:'
t11
:!r
the time required to qüestion a participant is normally distributed with
a mean of 3.5 minutes and a standard deviation of 0.6 minute.
(a) If a participant is selected at random, what is the probability that
it will take more than four minutes to question the participant?
(b) one of the students took a lot of time with one participant and I:.
l':):
. then made the statement that only l0go of the ealls require that
much time or more. How much time did the call require?
lll,
t..
ll,n':
4.17 ships coming into port to be unloaded arrive following a poisson dis- li,
tribution with a mean of l0 ships per five-day week. lri'
(a) What is the probability that three ships will arrive in a wsek? ir:'
arrivals? What is the probability that there will be more than two
days between arrivals?
4.18 A shipping clerk has observed over several months that only l0go of
the time he has an entire day to catch up on paperwork without being
interrupted by at Ieast one truck arriving at his dock. If the arrival of
trucks is Poisson-distributed, what is the mean arrival rate per day?
4.19 An employee of a telephone-answering service wishes to take a short
break and put money in a parking meter before she gets a ticket. If it
will take her l0 minutes to get to her car and back and if telephone
calls are Poisson-distributed with a mean o[ six per hour, what is tlre
probability that she will miss no calls? If she has had no calls for 20
minutes, what is the probability that she can take care of the meter
and miss no calls?
4.20 A traveler has a choice of flying on an aircraft with four engines or on
one with two engines. The four-engine aircraft can fly with four or
three engines, but a two-engine aircraft needs both engines to fty. As-
sume that engine failures are independent events.
(a) If the probability that an engine will function without failing
equals 0.75, which aircraft should be taken to maximize ,,safety"?
(b) If the probability of failure equals 0.75, which aircrafr should be
chosen?
(c) What is the value of .B the probability of any given engine operat-
ing during a flight without failure, so that it is equally safe to
choose either the four-engine or the two-engine aircraft?
(d) If a two-engine aircraft is able to fly on two or one engines and
the four-engine aircraft can fly with four or three engines, which
l
aircraft should be chosen to maximize ,,safety,'?
4.21 ren electric bulbs are in a box. six of the bulbs are burned out and the
other four are not. Three bulbs are chosen at random without replace-
ment.
(a) What is the probability distribution of X, the number of nondefec-
tive bulbs in the sample?
(b) What is the binomial probability that exacrly one of the bulbs in
the sample is not defective?
(c) Is the binomial probability from part (b) equal ro your answer in
part (aX Why?

(b) What is the probability that l5 ships will arrive in a week? :i

.i:
I

,i::,
l:ri 4.22 Tbe executive comrnittee of the University Senate consists of l0 mem-
f.:' l bers, seven faculty and three students. If a subcommittee to investigate
(c) The longshoremen have been complaining that there are not jjt
campus unrest is chosen randomly from the executive committee, what
3r
enough men to unload a ship before the next one arrives. What is ttl,.' is the probability that the students will have a majority of votes in the
iit,i
the probability that there will be more than a whole day between !.1'!
investigation? The subcommittee consists of three members who have
i¡.,
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 132 ' THEoFEIIcAL pRoBABtLtry DtsrRtBUTtoNs
EXERCTSES 133

one vote each. show that a probability tree will yield the same result 4.29 In a state lottery a player must select six different numbers between
as the use of equation (4.4). one and 39 inclusive. At the end of the week 39 bails are praced in a
4.23 Fifteen coins'of the same size are ptaced in a bag. Ten of the coins are machine which mixes them and then selects six bals without reprace-
' gold: Thé other five are not gold. A sample.of four coins is drawn ment. If a player matches all six selections, then the person is declared
a grand prize winner. what is the probabirity of correctry serecting
,; from the bag without replacement. a[
(a) What is the probability of obtaining exactly two gold coins? six¡umbers in a given week? (Just iet up the formura if yóur carcurátor
will not handle numbers large enough to caleulate the exact value.)
(b) What is the probability of obtaining no gold coins?
' ', (c). What is the probability of obtaining two or fewer gold coins?
4.24 Repeat exercise 4.23 assuming the sampling is done with replacement.
4,25. The number gf customers arriving at a bank's drive-in window is pois.
son-distributed with an expected value of two customers per five min-
ute interval.
(a) what is the probability that exactly three customers will arrive at
the window during a randomly selected l0 minute interval?
(b) what is the'probability that three or more customers will arrive at
the window during a randomly selected l0 minute interval?
(c) If the teller is occupied for one minute, what is the probability that
she will have someone waiting for her when she is finished? (As-
sum6 that there is no one waiti4g at the beginning of the minute.)
4.26 The diameter of ball bearings produced by a certain process is nor-
mally distributed with a mean of 0.48 inches and a variance of 0.01
in2.
(a) what
is rhe probability of obtaining a randomly selected item frorn
the process with a diameter greater than 0. j inch?
(b) Above what diameter do approximately two thirds of the parts lie?
4.27 The heisht of players in the National Basketball Associarion (NBA) is
normally distributed with a mean of 78 inches and a standard deviation
of 3.5 inches.
(a) what is the probability that a randomly serected prayer is tailer
than seven feet?
" (b) what is the probabirity that a randomly serected prayer is shorter
- than 76 inches but faller than 72 inches?
4.28 The number of defects on a continuous production line making copper
is Pois,son-disrributed with an qxpected varue óf one rliiect per
1iliic
100 feet. quility conrror randomry sericts a 500 foot section of the
tubing and observes the number of crefects. If the totar number of de-
fects exceeds nine, then the rine is shut down for readjustm"ni. arrr*-
ing the process is running normally (one defect p.. too feet), what is
the probability that it will be shut down due to excessive defects in the
next sample?